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The Blue Jays are in Denver for the Suenghwan Oh Showdown. #LetsGoBlueJays

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Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Friday at 8:40 pm ET - Edwin Jackson vs. German Marquez
Saturday at 9:10 pm ET - Marcus Stroman vs. Jon Gray
Sunday at 3:10 pm ET - Aaron Sanchez vs. Antonio Senzatela

The Boulder Boys find themselves just above .500 at 28-27, a half-game behind San Diego and nine back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Rox swept the Diamondbacks in four straight after taking two of three against Baltimore on this current homestand. Former Jays reliever Seunghwan Oh is 3-1 but has an ugly ERA of 9.33 and a WHIP of 1.91. Former 2014 Jays first rounder Jeff Hoffman is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA after three starts.

The Jays crapped the bed in Tampa as usual by losing three straight. They are in fourth place in the AL East at 21-35 but have a four game lead over the last place O's. Meanwhile, the trade market for Sanchez and Stroman appears to be heating up well before the July 31 deadline.
Blue Jays @ Rockies - May 31-June 2 | 115 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#374727) #
Gray came out of his last game with a finger issue.
Kinda like Sanchez, might not make his start, might not go deep if he does.

Magpie - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#374734) #
Edwin Jackson's career numbers against Colorado, especially at Coors, are terrifying. You know what that means.

GWN
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#374735) #
Just spitballin' here, but Drew Pomeranz (drafted 5th overall by Cleveland in 2010) may be available soon.
Magpie - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#374739) #
Here are Jackson's six career starts at Coors:

Date      Team IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Dec GS
Sep 2004  LAD  4.2  6  5  5  4  4  1  -  32
Sep 2005  LAD  5.0  7  6  6  2  3  1  -  30
Apr 2010  ARI  2.1 11 10 10  2  2  0  L  -5
Jun 2012  WAS  3.0 10  8  8  2  5  1  -  10
Jul 2013  CHC  7.0  5  4  3  2  5  0  L  56
Sep 2016  SDP  4.1 10  8  8  2  4  3  L  13
Ain't that pretty at all.
Nigel - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#374740) #
And some of those games were pitched when he was actually a good pitcher. Now itís just ritual slaughter without the lions.
Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#374741) #
This outing is still in the running for Jackson's worst in Colorado despite stiff competition.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#374742) #
Does anyone know why Luke Maile is on the ML roster instead of Reese McGuire?

As June hits, I'm wondering if Jays brass may have miscalculated again in terms of asset management. Despite having a good start to the season, Stroman's numerous off the field comments and actions have undoubtedly hurt his trade value. If 2019 was always going to be a development year, why not ship him out in the offseason to avoid the optics mess that anyone could have seen coming?
SK in NJ - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#374743) #
This looks like a 100 loss team with Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles on it. If the rumors are true and the Jays are ready to move them as soon as possible, then the rest of this season might be the most painful in a long time. The Raptors deep playoff run is a nice distraction.
Magpie - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#374744) #
Jackson's career ERA at Coors goes from 12.71 to 14.67. He's 0-3 and counting...
Magpie - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#374745) #
why Luke Maile is on the ML roster instead of Reese McGuire?

Because you can only play one catcher at a time. McGuire needs at bats, and he's getting (literally) twice as many of those in Buffalo as Maile is getting in Toronto.

There's also something to be said to have an experienced major league catcher around when your roster is overflowing with very green, very inexperienced pitchers.
John Northey - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#374746) #
Yeah, today might just be his worst...
2 1/3 IP 10 H 10 R/ER 3 BB 4 SO 1 HR and unless the Jays bats really come to life a loss. 1 less hit than his previous worst, 1 more walk, 2 more K's 1 more HR allowed. So I think this game is a -2 vs the -5 from 2010. So not his worst but close enough. Ugh.

Petey Baseball - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#374747) #
But McGuire caught a lot of these guys in AAA? Doesn't that mitigate the inexperience factor? And in my eyes, Maile's defense has been below average this year anyway.
Magpie - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#374748) #
If someone were asking why Jansen is on the major league roster instead of McGuire... at this point, I'm not as sure. There's not much evidence that McGuire can hit in AAA, never mind the majors. And Jansen should hit. He's supposed to hit. I think he'll hit. But he does need to actually start hitting, sooner or later. (Granted, much of Jansen's problem is the goddess of BABiP has been resisting his charms and playing hard to get.)
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#374749) #
Not sure SK. If they get a good return on those guys, and Biggio, Vlad and Rowdy develop some more, it could be better. Grichuk seems to have much better second halfs.
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#374750) #
Per FG, 62 catchers have 90 innings caught this season. Jansen ranks #6 defensively, Maile #18 of those 62.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#374751) #
So Maile has been pretty good defensively after all.

Lourdes may have found a home in left field. There is less to think about out there, and he's not exactly Shannon Stewart arm-wise.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#374752) #
It will be interesting to see if Rowdy Tellez sticks around or is packaged in a trade for more pitching or outfield depth. With Gurriel now an outfielder, and the Blue Jays set long term with infield depth (including Biggio as an option at first base) you wonder if the brass believes he hits enough to be a full time DH.
John Northey - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#374754) #
Right now I'm wondering if anyone might be interested in a package of Stroman & Sanchez for high quality prospects.

AL Playoff position right now: NYY, TBR, Twins, Astros, Boston/Oakland tied
500+: Cleveland, Texas, White Sox & Angels are close (2 under).
Non-Contenders: Seattle, Jays, Detroit, KC, Baltimore

NL Playoffs: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Milwaukee, Atlanta
500+: Colorado, SD
Close: Arizona, Pittsburgh, St Louis, Mets, Reds on edge
Non-Contenders: Miami, Giants

So just 7 non-contenders at the moment, 11 who really should be buyers, and 13 who are in debate mode.

Right now the Jays should be able to get a good price. The Rays should be a good fit (especially given the Jays always seem willing to toss in cash to get prospects) as they appear to be down to 3 real starters. Atlanta has 2 guys with ERA's over 5 in their rotation it appears.

Those 2 seem the best fit from a quick look at the playoff teams right now.
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#374755) #
That's a couple of outstanding catches by Davis this week.

Wouldn't be surprised if he's top 10 Statcast OAA by season's end if he can do enough at the plate to hold the job.
uglyone - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#374756) #
on pace for 102 losses.

a few smart trades and we can challenge for the franchise record 109.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#374757) #
If we traded Smoak, Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles...yeah, sub-100 seems pretty doable. The problem is that outside of Smoak, the only players on this team with OBP skills are the rookies, who will take time. This is why I don't really understand extending hitters with .300 OBPs that aren't making up for it with superior defense. Sure, hitting home runs is great, but they're a lot better when you have people on base to hit in. I think we're going to miss Smoak dearly.
scottt - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#374758) #
Stroman was shopped in the offseason but the returns were not there. 2018 was his worst season and not selling low was the right move. A good performance in Colorado could open some eyes on those NL West teams.

I'm not sure about Maile. McGuire is supposed to be better. It might come to a AA catcher needing a promotion. I'm fine with Jansen not going back to AAA to work on hitting. At the same time, he did his best hitting while platooning with McGuire. I don't think a reunion would hurt, by which I mean both being in Toronto. There's lots of time for that.

Obviously the Jays need pitching, but being one of the worst teams does not make it easy to sign free agents and trading for a vet would be a bad move, unless it's a pure salary dump.

Jonah Keri was blasting the organization for not spending enough yesterday, but he did not talk about the Jays still paying Martin and Tulo. He also forgot about Shoemaker. And Buchholz, I guess. They traded Morales and Pillar during the season. I don't see those as cost cutting moves.

Ideally, Borucki is back with the Jays in June and Merryweather with Buffalo.
Phelps would likely replace Giles down the road.

I expect them to improve as the year goes, not get worst. A Stroman trade would make matter worst, but he could also get hurt and that would be even worst.

scottt - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#374760) #
I don't like Biggio much at first. He already got stepped on his foot. The Jays aren't exactly swimming in left bats either. There's literally no depth at the position.  I see Tellez as the first baseman and the DH left open for all those super utility types who give the manager flexibility. Once they're ready to compete, you can always find a DH.

Besides who would give up a starter for a 1B/DH type?
Morales brought back Jesus Lopez.
Speaking of Morales, not hitting .128 for the Yankees, but with 8 walks and 3 Ks.
That damn Yankees strike zone.

Somebody jinxed Tellez by complaining he'd only play once in Colorado. So he hits into 2 double play ground balls and seems to hurt himself running the bases.

scottt - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#374762) #
Grichuk is a good right fielder.  He's been bad in May, but he should be OK as long as they keep him in right field.

By this time next year, the regular batting order should be something like Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero, Tellez, Gurriel, Grichuk, DH, CF, catcher.

Which means they'll have to trade away some of McKinney, Drury, Hernandez, Urena on top of Maile and Galvis.

dalimon5 - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#374768) #
"By this time next year, the regular batting order should be something like Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero, Tellez, Gurriel, Grichuk, DH, CF, catcher."

Not great.

Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#374770) #
And that assessment is exactly the downside of the big ol' trade all the assets championship push. That, plus the effects of the last 3 AA drafts which were extremely poor (2015 may end up a franchise worst), are definitely being felt now.

The question becomes, how do you get ahead of your competition? Red Sox and Yankees will spend perennially, and until recently, they usually had mid-tier farm systems (Boston has done well in the drafts, Yankees IFA) that helped bolster any holes. Tampa Bay has the #2 farm system, and already have a very competitive product, with a ton of young talented players.

To get ahead of them requires a long process, and the team has to be willing to take some risks in free agency, not rush to draft only take college players due to 'windows of opportunity', and actually stick to a long term development plan.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#374771) #
"Morales brought back Jesus Lopez"

Thank you, Jesus. Hallelujah.
uglyone - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#374772) #
"And that assessment is exactly the downside of the big ol' trade all the assets championship push"

Name all the traded assets that would make us look better.

And better than, say, Edwin or Donaldson would.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#374773) #
Traded assets that would make our team look better today? If that is the qualifier, than that's not a hard one. The 2019 Blue Jays would look better with Noah Syndergaard, Joe Musgrove, Matthew Boyd, heck, even Daniel Norris is filling rotation slots. Potentially, though too small a sample size, Lane Thomas.

Of course, the argument isn't whether or not we got value out of those trades. I'm just illustrating the trade-off for pushing to make something happen but without the depth to sustain those pushes for longer periods of time.
hypobole - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#374775) #
Kelekin, you pointed out something that kinda helps uo's point. The 2015 trade deadline moves helped push this team to the position it's in now, true,but those moves were made at exactly the right time. Boston was in a down period. Tampa and the Orioles were .500 clubs that year. Even the mighty Yankees had no star power. They made the playoffs with depth. By bWAR, their best player was Betances at 4.0. Estrada finished with 4 WAR and he was the 5th best player on our club.

Be good when your competitors aren't is smart. Conversely, this is the perfect season to be bad. The big 3 AL East teams are all projected for a 90 wins this year. We're on a 62 win pace. Theoretically, we could be 25 wins better and still finish 4th.
scottt - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#374776) #
This year is the "less competitive year".
Next year is the "more competitive year" and 2021 is the "competitive year".

I don't see comparisons between the Jays and the Padres or the Twins as fair.
Those teams have been rebuilding for many years and have pieces that are expected to produce now.



hypobole - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#374777) #
Yeah, the Twins have the best record in baseball so far, but they are also the only MLB team with more than 3 95 loss seasons in the past 10. Don't think our fan base would accept going that route.
uglyone - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#374778) #
So our reward for not making the playoffs then would be now having

Boyd (28): 2.85
Norris (26): 4.18
Musgrove (26): 4.57
Thor (26): 4.90

With which we probably still don t make the playoffs, and are likely looking to trade for prospects.
Nigel - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#374779) #
Hypobole-exactly right about 2015. If I have one criticism of Rogers itís that they donít operate the team with enough emphasis on the teamís current place on the success cycle. They operate the team to produce a more consistent stream of revenue- occasionally at the significant cost of baseball operations (as we have just been through).
hypobole - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#374780) #
Heyman reports the Mariners are going in sell mode. No word of whether it's salary shedding or retaining salary for prospects, but if they are shedding salary, picking up Leake and a prospect will give us someone to potentially soak up innings this year and next.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#374781) #
I think what's more irritating about the "all in" approach in 2015 was not the process itself, but the fact that we later found out that AA did not want to trade Tellez for Zobrist. I mean, to trade that many prospects in a span of a month (or two years going back to 2013), but somehow drawing the line at Rowdy Tellez is mind boggling to me. AA basically traded every piece of minor league SP depth in one shot, but did not want to part with a non-elite 1B prospect in A-Ball. I really wish AA never went public with that.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#374783) #
Yeah, it should be made clear here that I am not saying we shouldn't have made trades in 2015 when we pushed to the finish line. If anything, the trades I actually had a problem with were during 2012-2013, where at the first whiff of being a contender, AA changed course to move up his own determined timeline for long-term success. Sports franchises, ownership, and fans, are not really a patient bunch, as we see on a daily basis. I'm a little bit more relaxed and in the good things take time camp, so those were more frustrating early experiences for me.

All I'm positing is, what gets us from here to a winner by next year, or one year after that? It is absolutely fair to compare to what other teams have coming up the pipeline and what they have now. Losing teams have stars too. So what decisions can we make to bring in players who can get on base more, as well as solidify our rotation? I really do not think we have the rotation depth, and we are almost fully dependent on Pearson's success.

Even with our rookies, things take time. Guerrero Jr is going to be a stud, but I don't think it's out of the question that it takes Bichette or Jansen multiple years to hit their potential.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#374784) #
And UO, you can cherry pick Syndergaard's current 4.90 ERA all you want (though surprising you'd use ERA as a metric to prove a point, makes me feel like we've gone back in time), but literally every other underlying stat of his in his 5 year career has been amazing (and even his FIP this year is better than every Jay starter not named Stroman).
John Northey - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#374786) #
I think the big point is this year it looks like this team will be a 90 game loser or so. A team like that could have peak Roger Clemens AND peak Barry Bonds and still wouldn't make the playoffs (adds about 20-25 wins). Might be close, but would come up short.

Right now Thor wouldn't be a big help, except as trade bait ala Stroman & Sanchez.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#374787) #
Since it'd be fun to do the math anyway, peak Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have us within a game or two of the final wild card slot. ;)
Nigel - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#374788) #
I love how Buck and Pat keep harping on RISP as the problem with this team. No mention that the teamís OBP is the worst in the majors; worse than every team in baseball that has to have a pitcher hit on a regular basis. But, yeah, the problem with this team is clutch hitting. I do acknowledge that Buck and Pat have a tough job putting lipstick on this pig. John, this is a 90 loss team in Montoyoís dreams.

On the upside, Biggioís range looks challenged at 2B as expected, but in other respects, he looks capable.
Nigel - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#374789) #
So we end up using Giles tonight and not extra innings the other night? Silly
John Northey - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#374790) #
It is an ugly season but I suspect the 2nd half will be a lot better than most expect. Especially after trades happen to further weaken the ML team. Why? The kids.

OPS+ over 100 going into tonights game...
Smoak (vet), Sogard (vet), Vlad, Gurriel Jr, Biggio. Those 3 kids have the Jays only 2 hits so far (through 8 innings), and 2 of the 3 walks - the other walk went to Jansen. I suspect we'll see Tellez all year at 1B or DH as well - he is at 97 (for a DH you need 110 or better to justify being on the roster).

25 and under: Vlad, Gurriel Jr, Biggio, Tellez, Jansen
Sent to minors: Urena (23), Alford, McKinney
Not a bad group of kids. Pitchers are Luciano, Thornton, Pannone with SRF and Waguespack in the minors again.

3 kid catchers have 900+ OPS in the minors - Riley Adams, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno. Nice.
Just one infielder over 900 other than Biggio and a guy who has played 1 game, Jordan Groshans a 19 year old SS in low A. Only Griffin Conine has a 900+ OPS in the outfield but over just 3 games. No one at 1B/DH has a 900 OPS in the minors.

So the hitters in the minors, outside of catcher, aren't showing the promise we need to see (I want to see guys dominate in the minors).
Original Ryan - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#374791) #
So we end up using Giles tonight and not extra innings the other night? Silly

I was about to post something similar. The save apparently continues to prevail over all the advanced metrics in the world (and common sense, for that matter).

Mike D - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#374792) #
And that assessment is exactly the downside of the big ol' trade all the assets championship push.

Can we please establish a statute of limitations on blaming Anthopoulos for the current regime's horrific pro scouting record? Or for their shortsighted cheap-out decisions that have left the team without any realistic possibility of even a replacement level SP4 or SP5 over the remaining 104 games left to play? Or for their blithe acceptance of injury red flags that has not only led to predictable injuries, but now a situation where the club has to rush and/or blow out every arm in the system because somebody has to pitch? And don't get me started on OBP.

Just let me know when it is OK to hold the front office accountable. They have had four full offseasons and three drafts. That shouldn't be free pass territory for a franchise that takes itself seriously.

Or will we still be blaming AA in 2023?
Kelekin - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#374793) #
Mike - I agree with you on the majority of those gripes, except for the first. 2016 was the first of three drafts under the current regime. Most players takes 3-5 years to develop, let alone how quickly they adjust to the MLB. There are lots of things we can blame the current FO for; poor drafts in AA's final years is not one of them.

If we want to evaluate the current FO's first draft, we have to start with 2016, which wasn't very long ago. Some of those players are only now touching full season ball.

1 MLB (Biggio)
3 AAA (Zeuch, Bichette, Snead)
1 AA (Palacios)

Also showing promise would be Winckowski in Lansing.
Kelekin - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 02:19 AM EDT (#374794) #
Sorry Mike, I realize now you said "pro scouting" and not amateur scouting. When it comes to pro scouting...yeah, hugely disappointing.
Glevin - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 03:38 AM EDT (#374795) #
Mike, the issue is that there is no realistic scenario where this front office could have put things on a much different path. They have made two major mistakes so far where Iím concerned. One was not rebuilding after 2017 and trading Donaldson for value and the other was trading Happ for close to major league talent rather than going for players farther from the majors. everything else that upset fans like not resigning fan favorites were almost all the right moves. Would be getting something for Donaldson and something different for Happ be better? Yes, for sure. Would it put the Jays in a fundamentally different place right now? No. It would barely move the needle on anything, What is the scenario where the Jays are in a different place right now? The Jays have a fundamental lack of talent and they have that lack of talent for two reasons, first because they traded a generation of young players in 2013-2015 without getting a single asset that was going to be around after 2018. Thatís not just talent, but cheap, valuable talent. Second, because he Jays drafting in 2014 and 2015 was atrocious. You canít build a winning team with no assets. Look at the 2016 Jays team and the top 10 hitters. Only Travis is under contract with the Jays and most of the top ten players are washed up. Look at the Red Sox the same year and 3 of their 4 top players are still under contract. And performing at a high level. What is this magical set of moves where the Jays could have positioned themselves into a contender? Maybe the Jays should have traded Diaz for Trout? JA Happ for Cody Bellinger?
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#374796) #
To add to this gripe-a-thon, a big problem has been the Jays lack of drafting and developing position players. For years, until this season, Kevin Pillar was the only home-grown impact player other than pitchers. Even among the players traded by AA in the go for it year, Jake Marisnick is the only decent position player I can think of that was given up.

Ideally you want one or two good rookies coming up every year to supplement a team with established stars, and this didn't happen during the playoff years, or even before it, except with pitchers like Sanchez and Stroman. It's nice to finally have a wave of rookie position players finally, but I wonder what all this losing will do to them.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#374797) #
In fairness, alot of that was the previous regime's strategy of focusing on pitching. This regime seems to be able to get bats to develop just fine, it just takes time.

There I go blaming AA when I totally agree that we are past that due date.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 06:59 AM EDT (#374798) #
Going into ST, the starting staff was Stro, Sanchez, Shoe, Richard, Buchholz. Buffalo was Borucki, Thornton, SRF, Zeuch, Waugespack with Merryweather to join at some point. Yeah, there was a high probability of injury in that group, but so many injuries all happening early makes things seem a lot more bleak than they are.
Borucki is not far away and is definitely an option for the 4/5 spot., SRF seems to be improving so maybe he'll be in the mix as well.

whiterasta80 - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#374799) #
I actually think that this season is going largely according to script. We SHOULD be losing 100 games and filling the system with the cheap talent that will allow us to be competitive when vladju and others get expensive.

We should try a bunch of marginal talent to see if anything sticks. I give credit to Atkins and Shapiro for clearing the deck of Morales and pillar.

I do agree that the Happ and Donaldson decisions were the two identifiable mistakes but this season I haven't seen anything I consider to be an indictable offense.

If we see them calling up Pearson then I will worry about decision making but so far this looks like a typical tough rebuild season. As long as they give us hope I can stomach it.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#374800) #
I actually think that this season is going largely according to script. We SHOULD be losing 100 games and filling the system with the cheap talent that will allow us to be competitive when vladju and others get expensive.

We should try a bunch of marginal talent to see if anything sticks. I give credit to Atkins and Shapiro for clearing the deck of Morales and pillar.

I do agree that the Happ and Donaldson decisions were the two identifiable mistakes but this season I haven't seen anything I consider to be an indictable offense.

If we see them calling up Pearson then I will worry about decision making but so far this looks like a typical tough rebuild season. As long as they give us hope I can stomach it.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#374801) #
I am keeping an eye on the Cubs system and I think Brennen Davis would be a prospect worth targeting in a potential Giles deal. He is young and has kept his k-rate down in his limited pro experience, which was his biggest concern before being drafted. I would probably take a chance on him and a pitcher like Oscar De La Cruz, Corey Abbot or on the higher end Adbert Alzolay.
scottt - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#374802) #
Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, Leonardo Jimenez haven't played yet. These guys don't reach until 2022. There are enough infielders for now, the rookies needs to play.
Kevin Smith can take the time he needs.

Connine could be a left handed power bat in right field, but he doesn't reach until 2021.

Pearson should be in Toronto at some point in 2020.
Pardinho could reach in 2021, Kloffenstein not before 2022.

Still, Murphy and Perez should get some starts at some point this year.
SRF is up once he finds consistency. Borucki and Zeuch, once they are healthy enough.


scottt - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#374803) #
Giles got 3 Ks yesterday, so it's not like he's hurting for lack of usage.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#374804) #
Giles in now fourth in WAR among relievers and really the only reliever with a much higher total is Kirby Yates. He really should have a lot of value as we get closer to the trade deadline, and will likely be the top reliever available. Will Smith is the other big-time reliever available, but he is a pure rental.

uglyone - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#374806) #
"We SHOULD be losing 100 games and filling the system with the cheap talent"

What does the first part of this sentence have to do with the second part?
Nigel - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#374808) #
Agreed UO. The draft in baseball isnít like the NBA or NHL drafts. Tanking in baseball just isnít a direct drive to acquiring talent the way it can be in those sports. I would encourage all of you on Monday to go to work and blame everything bad that happens on the people in charge 4 years ago and see what happens.
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#374809) #
The mock draft has consistently had the same 6 names in most cases. All position players.

After that it is variable. #7-16 or so may have surprises. We can compare the actual to the last few mock drafts. The big difference is in draft bonus pool amounts. Also Arizona has $16 mil and a lot of high picks.

The Jays probably don't get any of the top 6. I expect 1 or 2 to fail because that happens. The prospects would be in groupings. #1-6, next 10, next 15 etc ....

dalimon5 - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#374810) #
Mike D,

Glevin really outlined a fantastic post to your query of when you can stop blaming the old regime. This isn't the NHL and your gripes kind of answer your own questions. 3 off seasons is probably the equivalent to one off season in the NHL or NBA. There's been a massive shift to prospects and developing your own, and that failure is pretty much all on AA.

At the same time, Ugly correctly, imho, points out that for the new regime, "tanking" to collect better players is a mirage and wrong. Sure it worked for a few teams that employed that strategy for years and years - but not without strong trades and signings, both of which this new front office gets a pass on which they shouldn't. They always harp the importance of home grown and ignore the equal to greater value of combined trading and signing of players.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#374812) #
Tanking worked for the Cubs, Astros and Phillies. Nats got both Harper and Strasburg by tanking. So it sometimes works. However, yes, tanking alone doesn't work. It also has to be combined with smart trades and smart (and sometimes expensive) FA signings.

The teardown started too late - that's more than likely on Rogers. That left our best trade chips much devalued. AA mastered the big trade. Atkins has made a couple of smart small trades, but has shown no ability to make the big one. And his more expensive FA signings have all busted. The two good FA signings under Shapiro's tenure were done by LaCava. So even if tanking this year is the right move, its ultimate success or failure will rest on Atkins, or maybe even his replacement. Because if he doesn't show more than he has, someone new will be needed. And that will be on Shapiro.

finch - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#374813) #
I'm going to float this out there...

Jays SHOULD NOT sign their 1st and 2nd rounder this year. Next year's draft is being hyped as a very very impressive draft (going by what experts are saying). Hopefully we can land a top 3 pick from this season and accumulate a superior draft class next season.

Would you really be mad if the Jays took this strategy?
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#374814) #
The Phillies lost 99 games and their prize was Micky Moniak with the #1 pick in 2016. This whole idea of tanking to me is illogical, and good teams focus on incremental improvements to every aspect of the organization.
Magpie - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#374815) #
Tanking worked for the Cubs, Astros and Phillies.

Indeed, but the baseball tank does involve years of pain. Years and years, plural. The Cubs put together three straight 90 loss seasons, bookending them with seasons when they lost 87 and 89 games. The Phillies likewise had three straight 90 loss seasons, those coming after they'd lost 89 games twice. And the Astros went full-tilt-garbage, losing 100 games three straight years. If that happens here, the Dome may look a lot like the Trop when they're done.

But how about those Raptors, eh? Playing for a championship without a single guy drafted in the lottery! (Okay, it's because they traded them away for the guys they have now.)
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#374817) #
Magpie, don't forget tanking was the 1st route Masai was going to take. He dumped Bargs, then Gay. He traded Lowry to the Knicks and DD was going next. But Knicks owner Dolan, ticked off because they'd been huckstered in the Bargs deal, scuttled the Lowry trade. At almost the same time, the Raps started going on an impressive run of winning. So Masai smartly pivoted.
scottt - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#374818) #
The plan is not to lose for the next 2, 3 or 5 years.
The plan is to play the young players that are here (Bichette/Guerrero/Biggio/Gurriel) and sign complimentary pieces like Shoemaker and Galvis as required.

BTW, I'm pretty sure that drafting guys with the intent of not signing them is ground for losing the next year compensation pick.

finch - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#374819) #
If any team gets hit for losing picks for the intent of not signing their draft picks...that GM and President should get fired. No one is realistically going to come out and say, "We had zero intention of signing these players because we think next years draft is superior with high end talent."
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#374820) #
finch, drafting players this year to not sign them may be smart, but that really screws over the kids you draft, if they really do want to start pro ball. It may also get Manfred involved, and he could screw over the Jays even more than we screw over the kids.
James W - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#374821) #
What if next year's class isn't as good as it's hyped up to be?

And I assume that something akin to the time-value-of-money would apply here - having players in your system from this draft playing and developing is worth more than having an extra pick next year.
Nigel - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#374823) #
Thoughtful comments all. In my view, if they donít get the pro scouting side of things fixed the rebuild is doomed to failure. Other than amateur scouting - good and pro scouting - poor, I donít know how to evaluate this FO, theyíve tried so little of consequence. The plan has been almost exclusively sit around and wait. Maybe thatís a viable plan but it gives you almost no clue as to the attributes of the baseball people in the FO.
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#374824) #
Atkins has not yet made a blockbuster trade. He has not even tried.

Gillick did the Alomar, Carter for McGriff and Fernandez. Both teams traded great players. This could be the only block buster trade the Jays ever made.

We did trade some of our V good players and in other trades we received V good players.

Traded Halladay, D Wells, D Cone, R Clemons, S Greene and J Olerud.

Received Donaldson, Rual Mondesi, M Sirotka and D Wells.

All were established good players. There are others that can be added like Dickey and the Big Marlins trade.

Eventually Atkins will have to make the big trade.



bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#374825) #
Pro scouting team has been mostly inactive.

S Brito and A Hanson have been bad. But that should not count because what we gave up had limited value. I also think that the pro scouting did not give glowing reports.

A Diaz was a steal but only because ST Louis was overstocked. Solarte gave us half a good season in a year that we were trying to compete. He got a somewhat regular role because of injuries. The value SD received is to be determined.
Grichuk was ST Louis surplus so they took 2 pitchers that could have been useful. A Diaz for T Thornton was surplus on both sides. Bench strength for Houston and also freed up a 40 man spot for them (surplus).
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#374826) #
Nigel, I agree on the evaluation of the scouting departments. I think there are a few examples which show good things and bad things, but overall the team has to get more talent out of the major league assets they are shipping out.
uglyone - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#374827) #
It's not easy to build a 100 loss team filled with acquisitions you apparently liked at the time.
Chuck - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#374829) #
In today's edition of "infielders playing the outfield", it will be Drury and Biggio flanking Grichuk. (Ex?)-infielder Gurriel gets the day off.

I get it. This has all the makings of a 100-loss season so the team will just keep trying different things. There's no obvious end game here on who lands where position-wise. But it is clear that some de-cluttering will need to take place before next season (and I presume Travis will be a casualty of that decluttering). Brave decisions are eventually going to have to be made: Player X, you are a position-goes-here and we will commit to that. If player X is a utility player, that's cool. Just can't have 5 utility players.

John Northey - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#374830) #
Value of a draft spot, year, etc. is damn hard to predict.

Round 1
2014: 25 of 41 reached so far, 85 WAR, overall picks #1,2,5 not reached yet. #7 best so far (Aaron Nola 17 WAR). 10+ WAR to picks 7,8,10,13,25.

2013: 26 of 39 reached so far, 82 WAR, #1,7,10 pick not reached (10 was Jays Phil Bickford who didn't sign, has yet to play this year, highest level A+). #2 best so far (Kris Bryant) with 23.6 WAR. Only other one with 10+ WAR is #33 Aaron Judge (sigh).

2012: 40 of 60 reached, 164 WAR total, #8 highest not to reach majors yet. #1 pick best so far (Carlos Correa) with 19.9 WAR. 6 have 10+ WAR.

2011: 40 of 60 reached, 256.5 WAR, #2/5 picks haven't reached yet. #8 the best so far (Francisco Lindor) with 25.1 WAR. 3 over 20 WAR (#8/6/11), 12 with 10+ WAR. Jays best so far is Joe Musgrove with 2 WAR (Jays had 3 first rounders, Tyler Beede and Dwight Smith Jr the other 2).

2010: 32 of 50 reached, 212.9 WAR, #6 & 9 haven't reached yet, best is Chris Sale #13 with 43.7 WAR. Manny Machado was #3 (35.1 WAR), 4 total over 20 WAR (#1 Harper & #23 Yeltch). 8 over 10 WAR (including Thor and Sanchez).

I figure you need it that old before you can get a good idea of how good a draft is. Only 1 of the #1 picks is best so far out of those 5 drafts. Baseball drafts are a crapshoot.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#374831) #
(Jays had 3 first rounders, Tyler Beede and Dwight Smith Jr the other 2).

Jacob Anderson?
Nigel - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#374833) #
Iím really not a fan of putting Biggio in the OF today. I would just like to see him get most of the run at 2B. Put him at 1B or the OF on an in-game basis or as an emergency situation but just find out if he can be the solution at 2B. If you want to play Sogard play him in LF. I understand that Sogard is probably the better defender at 2B but Drury is a better defender at 3B than Vladdy but you wouldnít move Vladdy to LF to let Drury play 3rd. Same thinking should apply. Move your AAAA guys around the field and let your prospects play their natural positions.
uglyone - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#374834) #
I gotta disagree there - Biggio likely is never a 2b. Get him as many LF reps as you can imo.
grjas - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#374835) #
Itís clear why the manager likes bunting; no one on this team can hit a sac fly if his life depended on it.

Meanwhile the Jays have changed batting coaches 5 times in the last few years and the pitching coach only once. Is it really that difficult to get one coach pushing a consistent approach for a similar tenure? Suspect it wonít be this one.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#374837) #
I think that all those people who were calling for a rebuild and tear down have moved on from the Jays and won't be back for a few years. The fans that watch the games, go to the games and check in on these forums, not die-hard but just fans that care enough to check the pulse (or lack of) of the Jays throughout the year...they are the ones that suffer and I believe prefer a retool or quick rebuild, both of which - it has become clear this year_ Shapiro and Atkins won't be able to do. If they succeed it will be because they built it up from the ground over a 5-7 year period.

Too bad the Yankees and Rays have already done this. If we succeed then we will be one of three competitive teams in the division.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#374838) #
No way success be should be 5-7 years. The big difference between this rebuild and most is we started with a top 5 farm. Most rebuilds happen after a cycle of attempted contention which often drains farms. Also mid-tier FA prices have come down and show no signs of changing. There will be low-hanging FA fruit available to plug holes. And what's clear to you is still very much opaque to others.

And I'm all for the rebuild and I regularly watch. Admittedly less so with fan fervor and more so as a scout where who wins or loses matters little - it's seeing what players are able or not able to do. If they win I'm happy, if they lose I'm not upset. Totally different mindset than those years I actually expected the team to win.
John Northey - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#374840) #
I give the GM credit for not selling the farm the past 2 years in a desperate attempt to stay in contention, instead just spending a little money on attempts. 2017 they had to try, 2018 is the debatable year - with Donaldson & Happ in their last year and the team coming off a 10 games under 500 season the excuse existed to do a dump and hope but the prospects weren't ready to step in yet, nor did the Jays want to start any clocks earlier than necessary. The only real cost of not diving in 2018 was getting very little for Donaldson (due to his injury) and nada for Estrada (as he sucked in 2018 and was meh in 2017). Happ was about as good as one could've hoped for, I doubt the Jays would've got a lot more in the winter.

This year they clearly decided it was time for the flip - Vlad was ready, Jansen looked ready as did Tellez, the gang of OF needed to have playing time to decide who is and is not a piece of the future. The rotation is a mess due to bad luck (Shoemaker & Buchholz both injured) and only Thornton stepping up among the kids. The pen is always a crapshoot imo.

It'll be interesting to see if they get anything useful for the vets mid-season. Big thing is for the kids to get fully broken in and ready to tear apart the league in 2020.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#374841) #
5-7 years puts a timeline of 2022-2024 if you count 2017 off season as the first real off season for this front office to start rebuilding or preparing for a rebuild in earnest.

I don't think there will be contention any time before that.

-There are very few free agents that will be available to sign over the next few years...if there is anyone good they will be on the wrong side of 30 in a young man's game.

- Dombrowski will be able to muster another 2 years of contention out of the Red Sox (competing 2020 and 2021 then entering rebuild)

- Cushman will find a way to keep the Yankees competitive all the way through

- TB will get better over the next 2-3 years

- Jays won't compete with those three teams in '20 or '21. In '22 they have a shot if their 'waves' of prospects start to develop. So far a lot of those bright A ball players are flopping in their first taste of AA. Same thing with some key AA players tasting AAA. Kevin Smith, Alford and SRF to name a few.
Glevin - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#374843) #
Nobody is tanking. Tanking is the idea of losing on purpose in order to get a high pick. That doesn't make sense in baseball. What the Jays are doing, is giving playing time to young players and marginal major leaguers in order to see if any of them can be long term pieces.

Glevin - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 05:17 AM EDT (#374844) #
The core of the Jays in 2015 was Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Martin, Tulo, Pillar, Travis, Price, Buehrle, Estrada, Osuna, Stroman, and Dickey. Those players combined for 37.7 WAR. In 2019, these players have combined for 6.1 WAR and are making around $135M combined. It was always a very short-term core. (By comparison, Boyd, Norris, Syndergaard, and Musgrove have 7.1 WAR and are making combined $10M this season).

The issue is that there was almost nobody coming up behind these players to replace them and the players that were coming up were all dealt for short-term help. The Jays had 14 top-100 picks (8 top-50 picks) in 2012-2015. Davis, Stroman, Smoral, Nay, Gonzalez, De Jong, Hollon, Murphy, Hoffman, Pentacost, SRF, Wells, Harris, and Maese. That's one very good major leaguer and maybe Murphy and SRF could be major leaguers but still aren't. If you go back further, the Jays drafts were still not very good but they tons of picks so could miss a lot and still get great players. in 2010-2011, the Jays had 15 top-100 picks combined. Sanchez is the only major leaguer on the Jays but Syndergaard and Musgrove are obviously major leaguers and they were traded for short-term upgrades. This is a problem the Jays had for a long time. Their top draft picks have been pretty awful. Guys like Aherns and Coopers were taken every year. Drafting is hard but you need to get some players at the top of the draft who become major leaguers and occasionally, some that become stars and the Jays just haven't drafted well in a long time.
scottt - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#374845) #
AA almost got hit with that and it's kinda funny if he gets to pick in a weaker draft this year.

For a guy not to sign in the first round, you have to offer then less than slot money.
Unless the guy failed his medical, there's no reason to offer less other than for an overdraft who should be even easier to sign.

At any rate, Steve Sanders said "We're excited by the player pool".

"There are obviously a lot of really talented players at the very top of the draft, and into the area where we're lucky enough to pick this year.

I think as we stack up the board, we're also excited about the potential of the guys we're going to be able to get a bit deeper. I think there's some depth to the draft, especially in the college position player area, as well as some arms."


scottt - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#374846) #
Why would a team be filled with acquisitions they don't like?
scottt - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#374847) #
Brook Jacoby was the hitting coach for 4 years. That's a pretty decent run.

Gerry pointed to a fangraphs article in another thread that explain why it's hard to find a hitting coach.

scottt - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:15 AM EDT (#374848) #
If they can graduate 1 or 2 starting pitcher every year, everything should be fine.
So far, this year they have Thornton, except they still need 2 or 3 more guys to fill the rotation due to injuries and vets who might be traded.

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#374850) #
For a guy not to sign in the first round, you have to offer then less than slot money.

Not always, though. High schoolers sometimes require overslot to sign. Leiter may be an example of that this year. Yankees drafted Gerrit Cole with their 1st round pick when Cole finished HS. Cole's father really wanted him to go to UCLA. The story goes the father told the Yankees "whatever you offer, I'll offer more". Cole went to UCLA.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#374851) #
"The core of the Jays in 2015 was Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Martin, Tulo, Pillar, Travis, Price, Buehrle, Estrada, Osuna, Stroman, and Dickey. Those players combined for 37.7 WAR. In 2019, these players have combined for 6.1 WAR and are making around $135M combined."

Thanks for reminding us that not only did this FO inherit an elite team better than either of them have ever built, but they had it with next to no long-term contracts, too.
Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#374852) #
I get it. This has all the makings of a 100-loss season so the team will just keep trying different things. There's no obvious end game here on who lands where position-wise. But it is clear that some de-cluttering will need to take place before next season (and I presume Travis will be a casualty of that decluttering). Brave decisions are eventually going to have to be made: Player X, you are a position-goes-here and we will commit to that. If player X is a utility player, that's cool. Just can't have 5 utility players.

Yep.  The risk is that if you do this, the young players will perform better, and you won't lose 100 games. You'll lose 95 instead, and not have as favourable a draft position.  But you gotta do what you gotta do.

As for the timeline for judging the FO, it's a matter of personal preference.  My naturally impatient inclination would lead me to start making judgments in 2020, but Magpie's advice to wait some more before making judgments has persuaded me this time.  2021 it is for me. 
hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#374866) #
Interesting bit on FG the other day on which type of pitcher, GB or FB, is better at preventing a big inning.

Conclusions: For elite or really bad pitchers, it makes little difference. But with a more average type - 4 Runs Allowed per 9 - it does matter. A 1 run lead is better protected by a GB reliever, a 3 run lead by a FB reliever.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gregory-groundball-vs-marty-mcfly-who-allows-more-big-innings/
hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#374871) #
Rosscup cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Buffalo.
Kelekin - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#374873) #
Any chance of a draft thread before the draft? Would be appreciated!
SK in NJ - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#374875) #
The problem with the Jays rebuild is that they started it a year and half too late. Not starting the rebuild at the 2017 trade deadline cost this team possibly a year or two on their timeline. They could have had Jack Flaherty in the rotation. Apparently the Astros offer for Osuna in 2017 was much better than the deal the team had to settle on a year later due to the legal issues. The more assets and high upside lottery tickets in the system, the better the chances for a quicker turnaround. The FO missed a huge chance there, and while it might have been out of their control due to ownership, it doesn't change the reality.

Tanking in baseball is unnecessary. You can win and rebuild at the same time, and most of the top front office's are doing just that. Even the Rays are doing that, which is scary because the Jays can't develop talent like the Rays, and can't spend like the Yankees and Red Sox, so the team is stuck in a weird spot with no competitive advantage having to compete with FO's that are just as good if not much better (I'd rate Tampa and NYY's FO much higher).

The FO did the right thing by not doubling down on the 2015-16 core, but spending a season and a half playing the middle ground is going to end up hurting them badly.
John Northey - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#374876) #
Uglyone - I hope you are joking there about the no long term contracts. I loved AA but he did have a couple of long term rocks to hand off when he left in Tulo and Martin which the Jays are paying for this year and to some degree next year too.

Was the team elite in 2015? Yep. But most of those guys now aren't worth a scrubs contract. Price is still elite, Osuna too (ERA sub 2, 16 saves 3-0 record).

WAR and $ 1/3rd of the way through...
Price: 1.7 $31 mil ($32 each of next 3 years)
Donaldson: 1.4 $23 mil
Martin: 0.5 $20 mil
Bautita: retired unwillingly
Encarnacion: 1.4 $21.67 mil
Pillar: -0.6 (yes, sub 0) $5.8 mil
Estrada: -0.4 $4 mil
Dickey: see Bautista
Goins: in AAA now 917 OPS
Travis: DL as always $1.9 mil
Sanchez: 1.1 WAR $3.9 mil
Osuna: 1.0 WAR $6.5 mil

That's the top 12 from BR for 2015. 6.1 WAR for $117.77 mil 1/3rd of the way in - projects to 18.3 WAR total or $6.44 mil a WAR which isn't a bad price for it. In exchange the Jays still have Sanchez and Travis, plus the guys via trades (Osuna for Hector Perez, Ken Giles and David Paulino; Julian Merryweather for Donaldson; Juan De Paula, Alen Hanson and Derek Law for Pillar; Ronny Brito and Andrew Sopko for Martin. Not a lot for all that talent - most left as free agents with no compensation. Nate Pearson I think was the compensation for Encarnacion.

Bottom line is if the Jays kept who they had in 2015 they'd have a massive payroll right now and probably not more than a 500 team ala the 1994-2014 teams. I'd have liked if they had cut bait at the start of 2018 thus got more for Donaldson and maybe something for some other guys but such is life.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#374878) #
i'm not joking.

on that elite team better than any team they had ever built, they inherited 2 contracts longer than 2yrs. $20m each.

next to nothing.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#374879) #
Last Calendar Year:


RF Gurriel (25): 271pa, 4.1b%/23.2k%, .344bip/.295avg, .213iso, 124wrc+, 2.6war650
3B Vladdy (20): 129pa, 9.3b%/18.6k%, .264bip/.248avg, .205iso, 105wrc+, 0.0war650
1B Smoak (32): 592pa, 14.2b%/24.2k%, .274bip/.239avg, .229iso, 123wrc+, 2.0war650
CF Grichuk (27): 624pa, 6.1b%/26.6k%, .299bip/.253avg, .241iso, 114wrc+, 2.6war650
DH Tellez (24): 256pa, 5.1b%/29.3k%, .316bip/.256avg, .235iso, 108wrc+, 0.8war650
2B Sogard (32): 174pa, 9.8b%/14.9k%, .281bip/.255avg, .134iso, 98wrc+, 3.0war650
LF Biggio (24): 27pa, 14.8b%/33.3k%, .308bip/.217avg, .130iso, 89wrc+, 0.0war650
SS Galvis (29): 646pa, 5.7b%/23.1k%, .303bip/.252avg, .156iso, 88wrc+, 1.5war650
C Jansen (24): 244pa, 9.4b%/22.5k%, .239bip/.197avg, .122iso, 67wrc+, 2.4war650

UT Travis* (28): 283pa, 4.2b%/13.8k%, .258bip/.245avg, .152iso, 84wrc+, -0.2war650
OF Davis (27): 78pa, 3.8b%/24.4k%, .204bip/.162avg, .054iso, 12wrc+, -4.2war650
IF Drury (26): 249pa, 4.8b%/28.1k%, .270bip/.207avg, .138iso, 57wrc+, -1.6war650
C Maile (28): 205pa, 9.3b%/24.4k%, .277bip/.215avg, .099iso, 68wrc+, 3.5war650


CF Alford (24): 8pa, 0.0b%/50.0k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+, -16.3war650
RF Brito (26): 70pa, 10.0b%/32.9k%, .179bip/.129avg, .081iso, 15wrc+, -7.4war650
LF Pompey* (26): ---
3B Urena (23): 132pa, 6.1b%/28.8k%, .410bip/.281avg, .058iso, 83wrc+, 1.5war650
SS Bichette (21): ----
2B Hanson (26): 306pa, 2.6b%/26.1k%, .301bip/.231avg, .121iso, 60wrc+, -1.3war650
1B McKinney (24): 281pa, 7.1b%/23.5k%, .286bip/.239avg, .176iso, 91wrc+, -0.7war650
DH Teoscar (26): 480pa, 9.2b%/34.2k%, .303bip/.218avg, .181iso, 85wrc+, -0.4war650
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 6.1b%/27.3k%, .350bip/.290avg, .290iso, 146wrc+, 7.9war650
bpoz - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#374880) #
There are quite a few things I liked about AA. He was very young when he got the GM job with the Jays. But he made serious mistakes that maybe you have to experience to learn.

He wanted elite talent. Well who does not. "An allstar at every position". He was fantastic at getting his man. U Escobar, C Rasmus, Donaldson, Martin and the Miami & Mets trades. Escobar and Rasmus are said to have character issues. Donaldson was great and maybe he tricked B Beane into trading him or Beane was going to rebuild because he also traded Y Cespedes.

He also got toolsey prospects B Lawrie and A Gose. So he got his man. He also got S Santos V cheap.

Long term contract to R Romero because he past the durability test 200 IP for 2 years in a row. I think there was an ERA bracket as well. I think AA did the right thing even though it did not work. So A Sanchez, Cecil, Litsch don't qualify. V good performance levels to reach IMO.

Getting additional draft picks. WOW!!

But he gambled on guys that dropped to him in the draft because of injury. He loves to gamble Donaldson this year for Atlanta. $23 mil is good money.



hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#374881) #
Rogers not wanting to start the rebuild at the appropriate time is not unique to them. Almost all teams in similar situations try to hang on too long. And unless one believes FO's are filled with types that totally lack foresight, it's pretty clear these decisions are ownership driven.

uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#374882) #
they shouldn't have rebuilt then. the best plan would have been doubling down on their elite roster and trying to push it over the top. we would have been in the same place now, except a few big contracts to old vets instead of these cheap AAAA scrubs.

the 2nd best plan would have been to rebuild agressively then.

the worst plan is to do what they did.
Gerry - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#374886) #
Blue Jays have optioned Justin Shafer to Buffalo. Tim Mayza is ready to come off the IL.

Rosscup elected to be come a free agent.
PeterG - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#374902) #
Zach Logue is starting for Buffalo tonight.
grjas - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#374912) #
What still baffles me is why theyíd offer Grichuk an extension and not Stroman, whoís only a year older and much stronger at his position. They donít have much top end pitching talent in the minors, in a position notorious for prospect disappointment and injury. Add to that the difficulty Toronto has had for 20 years attracting top notch free agents, and this decision becomes more mystifying, unless they think he is a clubhouse cancer.

Of course his comments on the weekend suggest he doesnít want to be on a rebuilding team, so may be neither side has an interest..
Michael - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#374961) #
It is important to put things in the proper perspective.

AA didn't "trade away the store", he traded some prospects for real players (sometimes good trades, sometimes bad trades = more good trades than bad trades), but there were still a lot of prospects left (many of whom will not become major league players, because that's what happens to most prospects - both those traded away and those kept). And as uo points out little in the way of ruining long term contracts were saddled with here.

No team graduates 1 to 2 position player a year to become an above average player, the turn over isn't that quick in the majors. As other notes in the first round draft pick, something like 1/4 or 1/3 don't make the majors, and a good chunk that make the majors aren't above average.

AA didn't need to draft position players at the time because his method of turning draft picks into major league position players was pretty effective through: Draft many projectable pitchers => Many of whom will still be on a possible success path in the minors (but risky) but have inflated values not properly taking that risk into account => trade the minor league pitchers for major league position players.

The point is you don't need to draft and develop if you can draft and trade for what other people are in the process of leaving. Yes there is a cost aspect you also need to consider, as well as risk, but if you look at value compared to $, look at the surplus value Donaldson brought in compared to the cost (and look at Donaldson still putting up 1.4 WAR in 1/3 of a season this year - this is who the new front office had to basically give away for near free (Merryweather) for fear that he might accept a QO from us rather than us either getting the draft pick (when he turned down the QO) or getting a 1 year QO deal which could be traded for assets this year?

To give credit to the current front office, the Smoak extension in 2016 was questionable from many sources (including me and others on this site) - with most of us thinking Smoak had some marginal value at his final arbitration ~$3.9m, but why lock him up for 3 years of $4.125m/$4.125m/$6m (up to $8m based on PA) when he was a 0.5 +/- 0.5 WAR player (I.e., barely above replacement level - although always touted as potential for more). He's gone on to put up WAR of 3.5, 2.3, and 0.9 (so far) over that time period which has been a great capture of value (and EE has still produced well, but Smoak has produced just as well and cheaper. The EE deal for Cleveland will end up being a good FA signing, which helps put in perspective how good the Smoak extension was). And that was a case of AA bringing Smoak over originally, but the new front office choosing to do the extension, and it working out well.

Hopefully this is the blue print that Grichuk's contract also follows of having some fans questioning it, but clearly performing from then (Grichuk's contract is more $ than Smoak, but Grihuk is younger than Smoak was and has had more consistent major league success than Smoak did entering the extensions).
hypobole - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#374973) #
"and look at Donaldson still putting up 1.4 WAR in 1/3 of a season this year - this is who the new front office had to basically give away for near free (Merryweather) for fear that he might accept a QO from us rather than us either getting the draft pick (when he turned down the QO) or getting a 1 year QO deal which could be traded for assets this year?"

My thoughts.

Did the FO really fear JD accepting the QO? JD made it very public he felt the Jays new training staff had him do something he shouldn't have done back in 2017, which caused a torn calf muscle - he didn't use the Jays training staff prior to the 2018 season. Atkins didn't disagree saying something vague about changes (staff? methods?) There was bad blood. But let's say he did accept. Vlad arrives. Who plays where? Does a possibly embittered JD get moved to DH for Vlad? Would JD's butt turn purple in that situation? I would guess a non-zero chance. Would moving Vlad to DH rather than his preferred 3B cause issues? Again non-zero chance. And the injury risk for JD was pretty high. The percentage chance of him being injured at the deadline was also non-zero, especially with the disconnect between him and the training staff.

Now let's say he declined. The QO would have gotten pick 78 in a weakish draft. Maybe that is better than Merryweather, maybe not. 78 was our Jeremy Gabryszwski pick in 2011. And that is only if JD had signed with another team. With his age and injury history all he got was 1 year and that's with no compensation attached. What if the QO made him go the Kimbrel/Keuchel route?




jerjapan - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#375005) #
Hypo, m.ymemory of the JD situation is that the FO did fear him accepting the QO.  I know I read multiple articles stating that idea, but I don't recall if the FO ever came out and said it.  It was certainly the media consensus, and I even recall a few posters here asking if the QO was worth offering. 

To me, the failure to keep JD and extend a QO was borderline bizarre.  I could be sleeping on Merryweather, and the FO did call him an 'impact' prospect, so perhaps they see something in him that the industry does not, but none of the 'who plays where' issues seem that significant.  At the time of the deal, it wasn't Vlad vs. JD for playing time, but Vlad vs. Morales, a player easily moved on from.  Rotating JD and Vlad between 3rd / DH / 1B would cost Tellez some playing time this season, but would it have hurt Rowdy to play first everyday in Buffalo?  JD's health could also be preserved with some time at DH, and I doubt he would have a problem with that as he headed into FA.
But you are right, he might have rejected the QO and take the Kimbrel / Keuchel route.  Perhaps the FO was anticipating this particular scenario, and if so, my impression of the whole thing would change for the better. 
hypobole - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#375017) #
Yeah, the "fear" thing was media narrative. No one liked the way JD's tenure ended. So they had to come up with some rationale. It wasn't until later JD passed on the training staff issues. Really don't think he would have been happy here, and now he's in a great situation with Poulis in Atlanta to help keep him on the field.

As for Merryweather this was from Longenhagen before the injury and TJ.

"I left Merryweather off of Clevelandís offseason list entirely because I had reports from scouts who thought he was succeeding as a 24-year-old in A-ball due to deception, a good changeup, and little else. Turns out that was foolish. Merryweather is 25 but heís pitched his way to Columbus and he carved up one of the more talented lineups in the International League yesterday, garnering swings and misses with all three pitches. Heís deceptive, athletic, touched 95 several times, flashed a plus curveball and changeup, and despite some issues timing all the moving parts of his delivery, he threw lots of strikes. There are scouts who think he fits better in relief, but he has mid-rotation stuff."
.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#375021) #
Borucki and Bichette are both making good progress towards getting back into games.  Borucki threw his second side without pain.

Tonight's lineup has Biggio in right, Gurriel in left and Grichuk in center behind Clayton Richard. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2019 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#375022) #
And Phelps is set to throw an inning for Dunedin tomorrow. 
scottt - Wednesday, June 05 2019 @ 06:14 AM EDT (#375046) #

AA didn't need to draft position players at the time because his method of turning draft picks into major league position players was pretty effective through: Draft many projectable pitchers => Many of whom will still be on a possible success path in the minors (but risky) but have inflated values not properly taking that risk into account => trade the minor league pitchers for major league position players.

I think that's a myth. That never actually  happened.

Which position player was acquired by trading pitching prospects?

Let's just look at the 2013 favourite team.

Rasmus? That trade included Jackson, Dotel and Corey Paterson along with Scrabble.
Encarnation was part of the Scott Rolen return.
Baustista was acquired for a player to be named later (Robinson Diaz).
Bonifacio and Reyes? In the Miami trade, the Jays included as many position players as they received with Escobar, Hech. Marisnick and Jeff Mathis going the other way in the salary dump trade.
The cost of Brett Lawrie was Marcum, an established middle of the lineup starter, something the Jays needed as well.

It's the same with the 2015 playoffs team. That team had holes in left field, second base, the rotation and the pen which AA was not able to fill adequately by trading prospects.
Tulo? That was a huge salary dump by Colorado.
The Donaldson trade included 2 position players.
I really don't see where AA got the equivalent of developed position players in trade for pitching prospects.

bpoz - Wednesday, June 05 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#375055) #
I understand your post scottt.

Prospect definition means less than 150 ML ABs or less than 50 IPs.

Prospects do get involved in trades. Position and pitchers.

Prospects for prospects seem rare.

Low value prospects like DSJ and Lane Thomas for Int'l cap room happens. Also trades for eligible draft picks.
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