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Buffalo split a doubleheader. They had bad pitching in game one and lost, good pitching in game two and won. The hitting was poor in both games. New Hampshire won thanks to Kevin Smith and Logan Warmoth, backing up Yennsy Diaz. Dunedin, Lansing, Vancouver and Bluefield lost. The two rookie teams won, the GCL hitters are on fire.

Buffalo 4 Scranton WB 6 - Game 1

Scranton WB 0 Buffalo 1 - Game 2

New Hampshire 4 Trenton 2

Dunedin 0 St Lucie 3

Lake County 9 Lansing 4

Vancouver 1 Eugene 7

Danville 6 Bluefield 8

GCL Jays 7 GCL Phillies 2

DSL Padres 1 DSL Jays 2


Here are some things I noted from Thursdays games:


TZ Zeuch was poor for Buffalo. Uncharacteristically he walked six in 4.2 innings. There was also the issue of seven hits allowed. It was an "ouch" for sure.

On the other hand Taylor Saucedo was outstanding in game 2, 4.2 shutout innings. Saucedo is 26 now and has been an organizational soldier, moved to wherever there was a need. But this year his numbers have been excellent, a 1.01 ERA in New Hampshire and now a 1.44 ERA in Buffalo. His WHIP is over 1 and his K rate is nothing to get excited about so maybe he is just getting lucky. But he is filling a need in AAA.

Ty Tice and Jordan Romano closed out the shutout in game 2. We know about Romano but Tice hasn't slowed since his promotion to AAA. Tice impressed in spring training so he might get a late season look after all the trades are made.

The Buffalo doubleheader was unusual. Scranton were the home team in game one, Buffalo were home in game two.

A couple of surprises led the way for New Hampshire. Kevin Smith had two hits, scored two runs and drove in two. One of his hits was a two run home run, the other a double. Smith is not "hot" but his bat has warmed a little over the last week. The other producer was Logan Warmoth who had three hits. One of his hits was his first AA triple.

Yennsy Diaz continued his good season with one run allowed over six innings. His ERA is 3.47, his WHIP is 1.18 and his K/9 is just over seven. Those are very good numbers for the 22 year old. It was a surprise when the Jays added him to the 40 man roster in the off-season but he has shown that the front office knew what they were doing.

Spencer Horwitz had half of Bluefield's hits, four of eight. He has been Bluefield's nest hitter but he seems like others before him, without a position, who will struggle at higher levels. Horwitz hit his first home run tonight.

Vancouver lost and are now 3-11 for the season. This is unusual for Vancouver. The Northwest League runs a split season format, the C's will be hoping for reinforcements for the second half, Alek Manoah anyone? The only hitter doing well is Yorman Rodriguez.

Jose Espada is another pitcher working his way back from injury. He started and pitched one inning for the GCL Jays.

The GCL Jays have 15 hitters on their roster. 14 of them are Latino, from the Dominican, Venezuela, Puerto rico and Mexico. One is American. 14 of the players were born since September 1999, meaning they are aged between 17 and 19. The one exception is the American. Troy Squires is the only American among the hitters, I assume he is the only native English speaker and he is 24 years old, five years older than his closest hitter-mate. I just thought this was interesting. I hope he knows some Spanish. Squires is from Kentucky and went to the University of Kentucky. Having said all of that, Squires has not had an at-bat this season so he is probably injured and not with the team. In his absence, the team lineup is 100% Spanish speaking.

The hitting has been excellent so far in the GCL. Javier D'Orazio had two more hits Thursday and is hitting .500. Jhon Solarte had one hit and his BA is at .471. Orelvis Martinez also had one hit and his average is .357. A Rod, Alberto Rodriguez, received $500,000 in 2017 and he is hitting .364. Jose Zepeda, an 18 year old 3B from Mexico, is hitting .500 while Erickvi Celedonio had three hits and is hitting .300. Its only four games but there is hope!


3 Stars

3rd star: Spencer Horwitz

2nd star: Kevin Smith

1st star: Logan Warmoth


Boxes

Warmoth Warms Up | 80 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#376269) #
I really enjoy this format Gerry, thanks.
Gerry - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#376271) #
Thanks Jonny. The online world has changed a lot since we started these MLU's 15 years ago. What used to be hard to find is now available pitch by pitch in real time.
hypobole - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#376276) #
I'm with Jonny on this new MLU format. I really enjoy you noting points of interest and opinions rather than the box score stuff. Although to be fair, not everyone has the time I do to go through all the boxscores on their own each day.

A couple of things I found interesting from the DSL. 19 yr old Francisco Fajardo hit a HR, the only DSL Jays player to do so after 23 games. Was thinking Fajardo is a bit old, a bizarre take on a kid born in the 2000's.

The second is 17 yr old pitcher Edgar Castro being used as a bulk guy his past 3 games, with 4, 5, 5 IP's, all in relief. In none of those 3 games has another teammate had 3 IP, and only once more than 2 IP.
bpoz - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#376277) #
Andrew Tinnish is the guy finding the Latin players. He is doing a great job. If a lot of them can get to AA we will have a great farm system.
jerjapan - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#376282) #
I know nothing about Edgar Castro, but at least he's off to a great start.  Two-way player Andy McGuire seems to have given up hitting after a decent year with the bat in 2018, but he's not really a prospect anyway, just an unusual guy.  Cuban Lazaro Estrada is also putting himself on my low-minors radar. 

Speaking of guys without much positional value, I just noted that 1B Ryan McBroom, my fave longshot 'prospect' from a few years back, traded for the immortal Rob Refsnyder, has 16 HRs and a .976 OPS for the AAA Yankees.  Hope the guy gets a cup of coffee at least.
bpoz - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#376283) #
The extra Intl $ traded for got us 19 year old Cuban RHP Yosver Zulueta. $ 1mil I believe. I am quite sure this was posted here before. But just in case it was someone else signed.
bpoz - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#376284) #
I found E Castro and can see why you are excited about him. There are a lot of players so it is hard to keep track.

Thanks.
PeterG - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#376285) #
Zulueta was highly regarded in Cuba and should be a real prospect. I wonder when he will start playing in NA and where?
Gerry - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#376288) #
2080 report on Joey Murray:

At 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, Murray has little projection remaining with a solid base and broad shoulders. He creates deception from a three-quarters arm slot due to a long arm-path and explosive lower body sequence. The fastball sat at 88-to-90 mph, reaching as high as 92 mph but dipping into the mid-80s at times. Despite below-average velocity, Murray generated a ton of whiffs on fastballs in the zone. At the low end of his velocity range, the pitch showed some cutting action. He relied on both his slider and changeup to get ground balls, but his most frequent secondary was a 72-to-76 mph curveball. Its movement was inconsistent but occasionally sharp, with 11-to-5 shape across the zone. Though Murray used it less than his curve, I felt his slider was the better breaking ball. He spots it well off the plate, coming in from the same tunnel as the fastball and curve. He mixed a changeup at 83-to-84 mph, though itís a less advanced than the rest of his arsenal.

Murray knows how to be effective with his type of stuff, but the lack of velocity could hold him back as he gets closer to the big leagues. Double-A will be a good test for the polished righty, whose deception and pitchability gives the upside of a mopup or long relief type. If his fringy velocity catches up to him, Murray could wind up more of a 4A depth piece.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#376289) #
I still hope the Jays spend some money next week on Yolbert Sanchez and Yeinier Cano. They aren't tied to many top IFA players, so they should have money for Sanchez and Cano will only cost money.
mendocino - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#376290) #
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ben-badler-chat-62619/

Michael Smith (Canada):

Hey Ben the Jays seem very quiet this international signing period! They usually always get at least one of the top 10 guys. Any idea why they seem so quiet this year ? Thank you

Ben Badler: They're going to be very active. Rikelvin de Castro, Robert Robertis, Estiven Machado, just to name a few, and there's more.
scottt - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#376291) #
pipeline has de Castro 27th.

The Yankees are linked their 1st and 18th international prospect.

No idea how good the ranking is though.
The Yankees shouldn't have that much to spend, but I think they made some trades to increase their slot or probably will.

hypobole - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#376292) #
Teams often have deals in place a year or more in advance with IFA kids. In the meantime, prospects can get a lot better, develop as expected or fail to develop as much as hoped. So this is one reason why sometimes the bonuses don't seem to line up with rankings, over and above the rankings themselves being very subjective.
hypobole - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#376296) #
1 inning, 1 hit, 1`unearned run, 29 pitches/16 strikes for Patrick Murphy. Hector Perez came in to start the 2nd inning.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#376310) #
Did anyone read Ben Badler's piece on why they're not doing international rankings at BA this year? I think it's a really great and informative piece of writing that explains why the rankings are all complete non-sense now.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#376314) #
Yes I did read that article Kelekin, but the prospect junkie in me still wants to see a list as part of my subscription.
ayjackson - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#376319) #
Urena is up to an .850 over his past 10 games. I still like him as our utility infielder next year.
Glevin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#376321) #
"Urena is up to an .850 over his past 10 games. I still like him as our utility infielder next year."

He has around 450 PAs in AAA with a 62 WRC+. Zips has him at around a - 1.2 WAR player over a full year. He's still only 23, so I am happy the Jays haven't given up on him, but he doesn't belong anywhere near the majors right now. I mean, he's not even hot as a hitter. He's 4 for his last 23 with 1 2B. He had a really good few game stretch from the 15th to the 20th though.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#376322) #
Urena go 75 PAs at 21, 108 at 22 and now he's up to 40 at 23 in his last option year.
He needs to get another 100 PAs this year even if he's already earned  the UT job next year, which should happen after we move Sogard, Smoak and maybe Galvis and Drury.

hypobole - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#376323) #
Thanks Kelekin, just read Badler's piece. What I posted earlier came from info I picked up from Eric and Kiley at Fangraphs. Badler both confirms and expands on that info.
Last thought - if teams are committing to players at age 14, how old are the kids when teams start scouting them??
John Northey - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#376324) #
A wave of trades is needed soon. IMO the ideal lineup now is...
CA: Jansen/Maile with McGuire for 2020 - happily trade Maile if someone makes a decent offer
1B: Tellez - trade Smoak
2B: Biggio - Sogard should be worth something in trade
3B: Vlad - duh
SS: Bichette - maybe a week or two away, by August for sure unless trying to get another year of control - trade Galvis
LF: Gurriel will be here for the next few years
CF: Davis or Hernandez or Alford - mix the 3 until someone grabs it
RF: Grichuk - signed for 5 years, so he lives here now
DH: rotate so everyone stays fresh

That's 9 players on a 12 man offensive lineup.

Backups: Urena (odds are he'll never hit much so might as well get him into the routine of going position to position), Drury (can play at a lot of positions, not well, but at least isn't a total disaster), with one slot left for whoever you want at the far end of the bench, or a DH, or a vet who no one would make a half decent offer for.

That would maximize the opportunities for the kids. While I love watching Glavis and Sogard play this year the fact is both are far more valuable to a contender so a C level prospect should be there for either. Sogard is a free agent this winter and is killing it so I'd expect a contender to really want him, maybe as part of a bigger trade involving a pitcher. Glavis has an option for 2020 so the pressure isn't as big to trade him but once Bichette comes up you need to get rid of him.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#376334) #
I would be surprised if they delay Bichette.
By the trade deadline he should have about the same number of PAs at AAA Guerrero and Biggio got.
Then it should be his turn to come up and hit in the bottom of the lineup till he proves he belongs at the top.

I'm Okay with vets but they must be better than replacement level.
Drury is this year's Solarte.
With the extra roster spot next year, it doesn't matter if Drury is better in the outfield.

jerjapan - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#376337) #
That 'ideal' lineup you posted John shows how we might be closer to contention than some think.  Offensively, that could be a good team as early as next year. 

Obviously the pitching staff is quite vulnerable, but out of Thornton, Borucki and Shoemaker, I feel there are probably two guys who could be counted on, assuming the injury recovery goes well.  what we really need is a surprise - say one of SRF, Zeuch or Merryweather emerging as legit back of the rotation types.  Keep Stro, and suddenly we have four starters and a team that could show enough rapid improvement to contend for a WC.  If we assemble a workmanlike young rotation, the need to keep starting guys like Paulino and Perez diminishes, and perhaps Sanchez emerges as a bullpen weapon. 

What worries me is the infield D - Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Tellez?  Squint hard and you can see a potentially adequate group, but even that could take a few years.  For that reason, and the fact that he's likely not worth much in a trade, I'd prefer to keep Galvis and shift everyone down the defensive spectrum. 
Gerry - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#376338) #
Orelvis Martinez has three hits today in the eighth inning, single, triple and a home run. Good to see.

On the negative side, Alberto Rodriguez has struck out five times.
Gerry - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#376339) #
Dasan Brown has signed with the Jays. I assume he graduated on Thursday and signed today.
Glevin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#376340) #
Great by Orelvis. He's one of the guys that has the potential to emerge as a top tier prospect. He's also only 17 years old in a league where the average age is about 19.
Gerry - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#376341) #
Dalton Pompey to get into games starting this week.

Devon Travis starting baseball activities, whatever that means (running, throwing, hitting off a tee perhaps?).
Gerry - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#376342) #
For what its worth Orelvis was on deck when the third out was made in the ninth.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#376343) #
Jerjapan, I'd love to agree. But it's hard when you look at a team like the Red Sox, where all but two starters have an OPS between 800-900, multiple players with .350+ OBP, home runs, a pitching staff with Sale, Porcello, and Price, and yet they sit 3rd in the division. Grichuk wouldn't even be a starter in Boston (and their lowest OPS player, Bradley Jr, is a defensive wizard).

It's not that we couldn't compete in some divisions. But without re-alignment, I just think we have a very large mountain to climb still. If Bichette, Guerrero, Jansen, and Biggio can cement themselves as big leaguers, then we'll really have to start dealing from our hitting depth to get some pitching.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#376344) #
It's down the last few signings, so I assume they would have waiting to announced until all the remaining guys are taking care of. Anybody can tell how much money they currently have left.

Brown signed for 800k, which is 121k over slot.

scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#376346) #
The Red Sox are over the luxury tax. Their players are getting more expensive each year. They don't have much in the farm. Bradley Jr is on track for 2 bWAR for the year. It's nothing special.


Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#376347) #
Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Chavis, Devers...not exactly an old hitting core. Luxury Tax isn't exactly an issue for NY or Boston. Their players will age, and they will buy new players.

The point wasn't that Boston was better, the point was that Boston with everything they have is THIRD in the AL East.
We aren't going to just out farm system the Rays either.
jerjapan - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#376350) #
Kelekin, you are right, Boston - along with the NYY and Tampa - make for a tough hill to climb.  contending for the WC is different from being a perennial contender, and I do believe that is the goal for our FO.  But offensively, at least, I think we are in great shape.  Now if only there was a youngish, reliable starter that wanted to sign here long term ...
Great news about Brown signing, even if I'm nervous about our track record with raw, toolsy players.  Demi Orimoloye is likely the best example of such a position player in the system right now, and he seems determined to make his name as a legit prospect, with 16 hits, 4 walks and 3 HRs in his past ten. 

I really wish good health for both Travis and Pompey.  Easy guys to cheer for, and if healthy, both could provide some decent, and much-needed, up-the-middle D.

scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#376351) #
NYY is fine. Boston is about to crater.
We just went 0-3 in the Bronx and 2-1 at Fenway.
With Dombroski, Boston will look like Detroit in no time.

Betts was worth 10.9 WAR last year.
He's at 2.9 now.
He makes 20M, has one more year of arbitration and he's a free agent.

JD Martinez was worth 6.5 WAR last year.
He's at 1.5  now.
He makes almost 24M and can opt out after 2020, but if he doesn't they have 2 more years of 20M to pay him.

Sale had an ERA of 2.11 last year.
This year he's at 3.82.
He makes 15M this year but he gets 30M the next 5 years.

Porcello  is not really getting worse. He's a free agent and probably gets a QO.
I wonder if he takes it. It would be a tiny salary cut which is probably better than sitting 2 months next year.



Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#376353) #
I've wanted a new Shannon Stewart for some time, we always have glimpses of what could be but it unfortunately never quite happens. I never had much faith in DJ Davis, but I had high hopes for Eric Eiland. Brisker and Wilson didn't work either (though Wilson is still playing in the Mexican League). Perhaps this is one reason why I was so excited for Corbin Carroll this year.
PeterG - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#376363) #
I agree with Scott that a Red Sox demise is on the horizon.

When, not if, is the question. I would say 2-3 years and they will no longer be considered a contender. They have the worst farm in MLB and it will be even more shallow after the deadline as Dombroski tries to hold on to whatever window remains. He is a boom/bust GM and the boom may be over...or close to.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#376364) #
I hate the sox more than anyone but they're not going anywhere.

they just made a big mistake in letting Kimbrel go, is all.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#376369) #
Merryweather is off to a rough start today for Dunedin:

2 4 4 4 2 2 (1 HR allowed)
PeterG - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#376370) #
Merryweather completed 4 innings with the 4 runs allowed in one bad inning (2nd). That's nothing to be concerned about in a 2nd rehab outing.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#376372) #
Kevin Smith was just hit in the hand and left the game. No idea on the severity but never good.
Gerry - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#376374) #
Another good outing by Josh Winkowski who was bumped by Merryweather. Four innings, one hit but just one K.
Kelekin - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#376376) #
Gerry, do you know anything about what's going on with Juan De Paula? When I saw he was in the GCL I assumed it must be some sort of large scale mechanical changes to move him that far down.
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#376382) #
Guerrero seems to be wearing hitting gloves with extra thick padding now.
It's clear that Smith is not getting out of AA this year.

finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#376385) #
So do we consider Warmoth a prospect again?
bpoz - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#376386) #
Warmoth is a prospect but at best a back up to Bichette. Urena is ahead of him on my depth chart(backup IF) except does Urena stay in the org.
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#376388) #
The speak of prospect list makes me wonder what my top 15 looks like, assuming Biggio is no longer a prospect.

01. Bo Bichette
02. Nate Pearson
03. Jordan Groshans
04. Eric Pardinho
05. Adam Kloffenstein
06. Alex Manoah
07. Orelvis Martinez
08. Gabriel Moreno
09. Miguel Hiraldo
10. Patrick Murphy
11. Leonardo Jimenez
12. Alejandro Kirk
13. T.J. Zeuch
14. Griffin Conine
15. Anthony Alford
Jonny German - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:36 AM EDT (#376436) #
I'm with you on 13 of 15 names Finch - I have Kevin Smith and Sean Reid-Foley in place of Leonardo Jiminez and Griffin Conine. We have the same 7 names at the top.

A-grade:

1. Bo Bichette
2. Nate Pearson

Very high expectations but very young:

3. Jordan Groshans
4. Alek Manoah
5. Eric Pardinho
6. Orelvis Martinez
7. Adam Kloffenstein

Could boom or bust:

8. Kevin Smith
9. Anthony Alford
10. Alejandro Kirk

Fairly large question marks. I'll go to #17 as I really don't know about the order of this group:

11. Patrick Murphy
12. Gabriel Moreno
13. Miguel Hiraldo
14. Sean Reid-Foley
15. T.J. Zeuch
16. Kendall Williams
17. Otto Lopez
scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#376440) #
There seems to be a lot of hype about the Yankees signing Jasson Dominguez for  5M.
He's a 5'10" outfielder with speed and power.
They're calling him The Martian because he's out of this world.

PeterG - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#376445) #

Buffalo Bisons

Verified account

@BuffaloBisons
CONGRATS to #Bisons LHP Thomas Pannone, named International League Pitcher of the Week!

🔹2-0 record
🔹First career Triple-A win, 20 minutes from where you grew up
🔹14 strikeouts/8 hits allowed in 11.0 IP
🔹1.64 ERA
Kelekin - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#376480) #
BA released their July Top 100 updates. Bichette remains at #5, Pearson moves up thirteen spots to #16, Groshans moves up one to #41, and Pardinho drops down to #97 (though now that he's back, he could move back up quick).
hypobole - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#376481) #
Borucki rehab in Dunedin 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. 47 pitches/35 strikes.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 02:39 AM EDT (#376482) #
Great list Finch. Mine is a bit different I think. I have Pardinho, Kloffenstien, and Manoah almost exactly the same right now. I have Moreno at #7. Kirk at #9. There's very little difference for me between say, #12 and #25 which is maybe Jimenez and someone like Cal Stevenson. What the system needs is some of these guys who have potential and raw tools to develop and give some results. Only 5 of these guys are in the upper minors.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#376483) #
July 2nd. Int'l signing period starts.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#376487) #
Eric Pardhino has been transferred to the Lansing roster.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#376488) #
Thanks Peter G and the others for passing on the info.

I hope to hear soon that Philip Clarke has signed.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#376489) #
Jays have signed eight guys so far per baseball America. All but one are hitters.

Rikelvin de Castro, ss, Dominican Republic
Estiven Machado, ss, Venezuela
Robert Robertis, of, Venezuela
Cesar Ayala, rhp, Venezuela
Victor Mesia, c, Venezuela
Cristian Feliz, of, Dominican Republic
Penier Brito, 3b/of, Dominican Republic -
Estarling Beltre, of, Dominican Republic
Kelekin - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#376491) #
I'm all in on a player named Robert Robertis. Quality name sign.

The Orioles have 27 listed signings already. That's about 27 more than the old Orioles.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#376493) #
A Tinnish has been very good so far. Especially catchers.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#376494) #
SSS but some GCL hitters have v good bb/k rates. O Martinez is showing some power.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#376495) #
I don't think Martinez will be in the GCL for long.
scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#376496) #
Maybe Orioles need to get enough players to field a Dominican team?
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#376499) #
Clarke signed, according to a Heyman tweet.
Jonny German - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#376502) #
Marc you left out the important part - heís getting $500k, which is 4th round money.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#376503) #
My mid-season prospect list:

1. Bichette
2. Pearson
3. Groshans
4. Manoah
5. Moreno
6. Kirk
7. Pardinho
8. Martinez
9. Kloffenstein
10. Stevenson
11. Smith
12. Zeuch
13. Murphy
14. Alford
15. Jimenez

A note on Gabriel Moreno. As a 19 year old in the Midwest League, he is doing everything you would want from a 1st round outfielder. He's hitting for average and power, with good plate control and also good speed.  If he makes it as a catcher, the sky is the limit, and if not, he still should be a good major leaguer. He's the same age as Bo Bichette was when he tore through the league. Moreno's slash line is not as impressive as Bo's was, but he is doing some important things better than Bo so far.


Nigel - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#376504) #
Mike your list is pretty close to mine. I wouldn't have Smith that high (his strike zone control problems started after getting promoted to Dunedin) and Jimenez would probably be in the 11-12 range for me. You can immediately see the issue with system right now - after Pearson and Bichette, all of the top 10 candidates have almost no pro experience. A year from now the system could have a lot of MLB top 100 candidates or almost none.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#376505) #
I would add, as a generalization, that the 10 through 30 prospects on most people's lists after last year have generally had a meh to really rough year (some through injury some through performance).
Kelekin - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#376506) #
Watching Pardinho's start. In the first inning he is having a lot of trouble with his fastball (generally coming in at 90-91), but having way more success with his off-speed stuff.
dan gordon - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#376521) #
Looks like Patrick Murphy has been able to iron out his illegal toe tap delivery. After taking some time off to rework things, he had a good performance Tuesday, with 4 innings of 3 hit shutout, 4 K's and 0 BB's. Great to see, he had been pitching very well prior to being told he had to change his delivery.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#376529) #
Mike, for me, you're too high on Kirk who has very real body worries, Smith who has dropped out of top-20 prospects with an awful season, and Stevenson who puts up good numbers but has always been old for his league (he's almost 23 in A+). The Jays have a glut of mediocre OFers in the majors and in AAA. None of McKinney, Davis, Pompey, Brito, Alford, and Fields (And Drury) look like major league regulars going forward. Alford has played better and maybe has the best chance to be something, but guys who strike out 30% of the time with a 92 WRC+ in AAA, need a lot of work. This backlog though creates issues down the system I think. It means Wall gets stuck in AA. It means Stevenson gets stuck in A+. The Jays lost Smith Jr. and Ramirez last season and neither look like big losses (no more daily updates of Smith Jr!) but there needs to be some clearing out of some of these players. With trades of veterans, the Jays need to give PAs to some guys and give them a good run.
scottt - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#376534) #
Clarke had an option to return and was able to leverage that.
He was ranked 178 by mlb, that's like 5th round, so not a huge overpay, just a good sign for the 9th slot.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#376535) #
Pardinho was 90-91 in extended spring on a scout's gun... reports of 92-94 from Twitter were probably off the stadium gun which is notoriously hot as much as 3-4 mph. My guess is that the elbow is still an issue; he had lots of time to build up velo.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#376536) #
Glevin, it's definitely personal. I generally have a noticeable bias for position players over pitchers and for hitters with plate control over those with power. There's more to it than that, but it will give you an idea why I rate Stevenson ahead of Griffin Conine, for instance.

These lists, whether here or in name-brand websites/publications, ought not to be taken as anything more than an expression of opinion. Typically, it gets very hazy once you get past the first few and this year is no different.


bpoz - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#376537) #
We don't know what Atkins turned down in the Happ deal. Drury and McKinney had not proven that they were not ML capable. So in a way, you needed some "IFs" to work out. Atkins collected a lot of "IFs". T Hernandez, Drury, McGuire, McKinney, Gurriel and maybe there are a few more.

This has the potential to help and speed up the rebuild.

Biggio needed his AAA time so there was help to avoid a possible 90 loss season. Galvis, Sogard also help. Gurriel and Tellez are showing that they are good parts for the future team.

Atkins knows that the youngsters still need time, 500+ ABs.

There should be trades and DFAs to make room for any prospects that need to come up and be tested. I expect the Non Tender route will also be used. Other teams surpluses will be acquired cheaply.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#376539) #
Have a question regarding July 2 IFA's. Common knowledge deals are being agreed upon sometimes a couple of years in advance. If a team has a deal with a player that has shown little or no progression since it was struck, and an opportunity arises to invest that money on someone the org is much higher on, what can they do?

Pulling out of the original agreement would ruin the teams reputation for any future deals. But what's to stop a team from simply giving the non-prospect the agreed upon money and allowing him to sign elsewhere, then signing the player they want with their pool allotment?
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#376541) #
I'm wondering about the fluctuation of prospect rankings. 

I find Bauxite's prospects listings an interesting compliment to the industry lists - obviously, we are not professionals, and we don't follow other systems with anywhere near the interest with which we scour the Jays' minors.  But I'm starting to think we are ahead of the curve a bit when it comes to prospects like Moreno, Kirk and Stevenson - unheralded guys with results over the loud, obvious tools that scouts are drawn to.  The industry is starting to pay attention to that trio, with many ranking two or three of them in the back half of the top 30.  But nearly every Bauxite has them about 10 spots higher.  

How much import do you guys put on one season?  Stevenson went from a money-saving senior sign to a prospect with his ridiculous 2018, and on the flip-side, Warmoth dropped to the end of many top 30 lists, or off the lists entirely.  I know many didn't like his low ceiling / high floor profile in the first round, but two of his three seasons seem right on track for the guy, assuming he continues to adapt well in AA.  Is he a prospect again? 

Ultimately, I'm interested in the thinking behind these lists as much as I am the list itself. 
Gerry - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#376542) #
I think all the deals are based on word of mouth. Teams can pull out but they usually work with the players trainer so its more important for the team to retain a relationship with the trainer than the player. A team might cut what they will pay a player, which impacts the trainer, but offer another of his players more money.

When a team signs a player for a million dollars, say, a sizeable percentage of that money goes to the trainer.

The trainers are the key people in the relationship, not the players.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#376545) #
Gerry, my question may have not been phrased properly. The player and trainer both get the agreed amount, but the trainer can shop the kid elsewhere. The player/trainer lose nothing. And the team, in theory, still has it's full pool allotment.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#376546) #
I have never heard of a team losing a player late in the process because he got a better deal. I guess it boils down to the relationship between the trainer and the team.

Maybe the 30 MLB teams stick together and if a trainer gets a reputation that he will switch out a player late in the process, he will be shunned or not trusted by the other 29 (28 excluding the switch to team) teams.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#376550) #
I'm assuming you're answering my question.

Team reaches agreement with 14 yr old's buscone. At 16 he's a flop. Team still honours agreement monetarily by paying the agreed amount, but doesn't sign player. Uses entire pool allotment on other players, since pool allotment is for signings. Would MLB allow this?
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#376553) #
And yeah, it wasn't worded well. The Kiley's FG chat also thought it involved bypassing the trainer.
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