Off to a roaring start, I see.

Ok - the Buck/ Pat discussion about Bichette’s promotion may be the dumbest yet. Buck - “it’s not just a question of bringing him up, it’s a question of how are you going to get him on the roster.” Pat “I mean you don’t want to have have to give up a good player”.

You can’t fit a top 10 overall MLB prospect onto a 100 loss team? Because he might be forcing out a good player? Umm ok.

I can see their point. Bo doesn't have those big and strawng qualities that Tabby loves. He may be overrated. He just doesn't look like a baseball player to me.

I don't know what I enjoy more...a Gueriell homer or a Gueriell walk. BGs working Price for 4 walks, much better at bats (Brandon "Dreary" excluded) lately.
#smallvictories

Oh, for the love of.... you've got two out, Biagini. Who gives a crap about the runner on first? Why are you throwing over there five times?

OK, now I understand.

Either Giles is good to go on back-to-back days or they're thinking "Aw, it's not like we're going to need a closer tomorrow."

FWIW - I didn’t take their conversation to be belittling of Bichette - more that his promotion might force the team to send down someone like Drury. Hoarding can be clinically treated.

I don't think Drury is an obstacle for a Bichette call up. More likely they'll want Bo to be the everyday SS once he's in the bigs, so that would mean trading Galvis. Hopefully it is just a matter of time until that happens. If the Jays are going to call Bo up in 2019, then the longer they wait, the less sense it makes.

I'm past the "Drury needs to be moved soon" point, and into the "what is he still doing here" stage.

If you don't want to bring up Bichette until after the ASB, bring up Davis and have him play CF on days like today. At least then you get a longer look at Davis.

Drury is who he has always been. He isn't breaking out. Which means he's AAA depth. And we're already challenged to juggle infield playing time without him.

So SRF will not start tomorrow. Waguespack is eligible to come off the IL so he could start. Someone has to go, likely SRF. But he should be back after the all-star break.

Also the Jays believe Thornton was tipping his pitches. That was the guess of Joe Siddall on TV too.

If Bichette comes up, I want him playing SS every day. Also, I'd like to see him have a bit of continued success at AAA. He is still grounding out a lot, and his strikeout rate ha gone up since returning. There's no need to rush him right now.

I don't see the rush to bring up Bichette, with Galvis, Sogard and Biggio all playing so well. I assume that the Buck/Pat comment about getting Bichette on the roster was referring to losing a player off the 40-man roster in order to make room for Bichette. I would say McKinney and Drury would be in jeopardy. Personally, I never wanted Drury in the first place, and would be quite happy to see him gone.

100 loss teams don’t have 40 man roster problems of any kind - by definition.

There are lots of good reasons for not bringing up Bichette right now. Too many good players on the 25 or 40 man rosters isn’t one of them.

bring up Davis and have him play CF on days like today. At least then you get a longer look at Davis.

Yes, I'm a notorious skeptic regarding Davis, but I'd much rather see Alford come back up. He seems to have gotten the hang of the International League (each month this year has been better than the one before), he's actually been playing better than Davis these last few weeks (each month for Davis has been worse than the one before, though I regard that as water finding its level), and Alford surely has a much better chance of actually amounting to something in the future.

Also the Jays believe Thornton was tipping his pitches.

The game story on ESPN quoted Thornton as saying Galvis told him after the game "that I was doing a little something that even he could see."

I had to wonder - could you maybe have mentioned it earlier, Freddy? Like, before the 11 hits and 7 runs? Did you tell Pete Walker? Come to think of it, if the shortstop could see it and thought it was obvious, the pitching coach had to see it. That's his job. And if Thornton was tipping his pitches, and it wasn't the type of thing that could be fixed on the spot, and required some work on the side - what was the point of leaving him in the game to get his brains beat in? Telling major league hitters what pitch is coming? That's like giving a grizzly the first swat.

Whether it’s Davis or Alford, I think the next and most obvious move (even before promoting Bichette) is to call up an actual CF and cut one of Drury or Hernandez. Davis or Alford in CF has got to be better than playing Drury in RF and Grichuk in CF, which is a lineup we are seeing semi frequently right now.

Galvis and Sogard are two of the Jays best players this year so I think realistically, the Jays would want to trade at least one of them before Bichette comes up so he could play everyday. There about 10-15 guys we could lose off the 40 man and it wouldn't be a big deal. I think we are going to start to see some trades pretty soon and I think like last year, the Jays will try to deal everything they can. I expect Giles, Stroman, Smoak, Sogard, and Galvis traded as well as a couple more relievers if someone will give up prospects for them.

FWIW, Alford last played 10 days ago and is on the IL.

Given that the return in a trade is almost certainly going to be modest, I’m actually hoping that they try and keep Sogard. He seems like exactly the kind of modern utility player a team could make good use of as a bench player. He offers a bunch of things that the team is lacking in (infield defence, LH hitting, BB%),

I've heard that's it Giles who decides if he needs to throw in a non-save situation or not.

Bichette could stay in AAA all of July and he wouldn't have been there longer than Biggio and Guerrero.
The trade deadline seems like the most appropriate time.

There was a lot of rambling about Houston stealing signs last year.
The entire Boston lineup is often hitting everything or being stymied.
And then, in that London series, it sure felt like both sides were stealing signs.
There's a lot of third rate Yankees hitters having success this year.
Like almost everybody they try.

And when I say sign stealing, it could also be the pitcher tipping but those teams might have guys studying pitchers before games looking for tell signs. I guess that's part of the hitters catching up to the pitchers thing.

This gets brought up every week or so, but I think it bears repeating:

Brandon Drury (at Chase Field): 509 PA, .305/.360/.533, OPS .893, BABIP .358

Brandon Drury (everywhere else): 863 PA, .223/.270/.351, OPS .621, BABIP .271

Sure... some of this is luck-driven, but it seems increasingly hopeless that he'll ever amount to anything outside of the Arizona organization.

[Drury's ballpark splits] gets brought up every week or so, but I think it bears repeating:

It's a huge split, and it's also a little weird. Chase Field is a nice place to hit, but it's not that nice. Paul Goldschmidt, who played there for years and years, doesn't have much of a home-road split at all. (The biggest difference for Goldschmidt was he drew a lot more walks at home.)

Well, let's see. The Snakes have been there for 20 years, they've scored and allowed 16,266 runs in home games, 14,714 in road games. That's an offensive increase of 1.11 at home. Okay, that is indeed a pretty big deal. It ain't Coors Field, but it's about the same as whatever they're calling the place in Arlington. Even so, its effect on Drury's game is still weird.

Okay, here's something else - three times in franchise history there's been an increase in runs scored of more than 120% in Arizona's home games. Those three seasons were 2003 and Drury's two years there, 2016 and 2017. Possibly an especially hot summer in the desert? Chase One isn't Coors Field yet, but give climate change a chance!

some of this is luck-driven

Which is not good news for Drury. All you can say is he's been a little unlucky away from Arizona, where he was really, really lucky. Lucky to a ridiculous, unsustainable degree. I mean, .358 on his balls in play?

At this point, I don't enormously mind Drury being around, somewhere. Obviously he shouldn't be blocking anyone, but he can play at least four positions which is useful in the modern game. He's certainly the team's best defender at third base. He's even young enough to improve a little. But his ceiling looks like useful bench guy. So I guess my real question is why does he play so much?

That's really my main point too Magpie. Why is he playing so much? Drury should be in "pull in emergency only" mode. He plays so much because that appears to be his manager's style (if he has a toy he's going to play with it) and he's really the 4th OF currently. As Biggio has started to get more reps at 2B, I'd prefer to see Sogard in LF as the de facto 4th OF. But really, the time has come to use an actual CF if at all possible. There's really no need for Drury on the current roster with Sogard and Biggio around. If they move Sogard then Drury probably has more utility.

As everyone is dumping on Sanchez, let me say I'm still bullish on Sanchez and believe he will work through these troubles and become a quality pitcher again - If I'm in the Jays FO I'd take this opportunity to try and extend Sanchez - a buy low play - Sanchez & his agent may say no but I'd definitely explore the possibilities.

Of course, if I get solid offers, 100% I'm moving Stroman & Giles - and most anyone with less than 3 years control.

I too feel that Sanchez can be good again. Try the extension. I don't think he brings back much in a trade and should be cheap for next year's Arb.

Lourdes pummeling sliders.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lourdes-gurriel-jr-destroyer-of-sliders/

There is a possibility that Stroman goes on the IL. He might have to miss a start with his "cramp" and going on the IL with the all-star break will not miss much time. The Jays could back-date his IL so he can pitch Friday next week.

It will leave the Jays with a start to be covered tomorrow.

As I write that SRF is optioned for Waguespack.

There is still a doubt as to whether Stroman pitches tomorrow.

A cramp does not last for 5 days.

You don't extend Sanchez before he improves.
Even if he becomes good again, nobody will be offering him top dollars.
He's not just bad. He's never healthy.

Phelps is now the opener.

That's it. We're trying to win this game now.

I heard on Yankees' radio last week that the long man who follows the "opener" is called the "headliner".

You don’t have to squint too hard to see some Lance Parrish in Jansen.

Gurriel. Wow.

If you consider Gurriel in conjunction with other elite prospects like Bichette and Pearson and Groshans and Pardinho (along with Biggio and Kirk and Conine and Kloffenstein and others), the severe critics of this front office do seem to be losing credibility. The FO is by no means perfect, but Gurriel
is looking like a real coup, and some of the other players mentioned might fall into the same category.

Giles was used in last nights blow-out. Will he be able to pitch back to back tonight?

Guerrero has to make that play if he’s going to be a third baseman. Looks like he has a little difficulty getting turned and down on the ball.

Vladdy would be in trouble if Jansen was on the other team.

Not his best game, but the Jays still win.

MLB wRC+ leaders last 30 days:
1 Yankees 125
2 Braves 120
3 Pirates 120
4 Red Sox 117
5 Blue Jays 115

I've been a pretty 'severe' critic of the FO, but that doesn't mean they don't do some things well - I've liked every draft, and while it's harder to gauge the success of their international signings, they appear to have done quite well on that front too. 

I continue to see Gurriel as their best move, but I will also give major props to the Giles trade - he's been better than Osuna for about the same money, with the same amount of control, and we also got two intriguing prospects, who admittedly have struggled.  But that is, so far, a weakness-  the prospects we've acquired in trades.  there are plenty of building blocks in place, but our progress is of the incremental, slow-growth kind and our division is tough. 

go danny go go go

Harold Ramirez torrid start with the Marlins has tapered off substantially. 63 wRC+ over the past 30 days, 95 on the season entering today. And that's still with an unsustainable .363 BABIP.

Pannone's up, presumably to start tonight instead of Stroman. Waguespack is optioned after his first ML win. Both Waguespack and SRF will be aggrieved to be in Buffalo.

Derek Law is the opener tonight. Pannone is the "headliner". Stroman could pitch in one of the next three games.

SRF and Waguespack may feel aggrieved but there was not really any other sensible choice. Each will get further opportunities and likely very soon.

Martinez in LF, Vasquez at DH, Leon catching.

Hector Velasquez will start for Boston.

SRF will be aggrieved to be in Buffalo

SRF had a glorious opportunity to take a starter job and run with it earlier this year. When Montoyo said said of Edwin Jackson, "we don't have anyone else", SRF was healthy in Buffalo.

when the difference is thousands of dollars per day, they have every right to be aggrieved.

Both Waguespack and SRF will be aggrieved to be in Buffalo.

Well yeah. Derek Law is still in Toronto.

Hahaha. Cheers everyone!!!

Hard to believe this is the same offence that only 2 months ago seemed to be flirting with getting no-hit multiple times a week.

Great to see Jansen firing on all cylinders. Gurriel must have fed him the magic elixir.

that's the thing with a team of young players.  this hot streaks not gonna last, but these position players are building blocks. 

Jansen's at an .850 OPS or so over the last 28 days (only 65 PA). But still...

I think we can all agree to not send Jansen down now, yeah? Great, glad we're agreed. :)

I still want to see Drury and Law replaced by Davis and Romano in the near term - but I never wanted to send Jansen down.

The load on a front-line big-league catcher is so high that you have to expect issues in one or more parts of the game for someone's first year. If his defense and calling were solid and improving, which they were, you take that and see if the rest comes later. Looks like it's beginning to come together, which is great to see.

"Hard to believe this is the same offence that only 2 months ago seemed to be flirting with getting no-hit multiple times a week."

Getting rid of most of the late 20s fodder brito Davis hansen drury McKinney etc certainly helps.

They mentioned on the broadcast that the Blue Jays lead the majors in HR's since mid-May. Great to see Jansen showing the offense that was expected of him. I didn't like Tellez' at bat in the 9th. The Sox pitcher had just walked the last 2 batters, was getting way up there in his pitch count, and Tellez swings at the first pitch, which was up at his eyes. Pay attention to the situation.

Add Borucki, keep Stroman and Giles, sign a free agent starter, and add Pearson some time next year, and this is a very good baseball team. No reason it couldn't make the playoffs.

CF Grichuk 0.1war
RF Gurriel 1.7
LF Biggio 0.6
3B Vladdy 0.1
SS Galvis 1.3
2B Sogard 2.0
1B Smoak 0.8
DH Tellez -0.1
C Jansen 1.1

Total 7.6

CF Alford -0.1 / Pillar -0.3
RF Brito -0.7
LF Davis -0.4
3B Drury -0.2
SS Urena 0.0
2B Hanson -0.5
1B McKinney -0.5
DH Teoscar -0.2
C Maile 0.0

Total -2.9

Very impressive game for Jansen.
He's been mashing lefties for a while now.
This time he did it against right handed pitchers.

No idea why Law is still here.
Maybe because they're open to trading everyone else?

Pannone ran out of juice early.
Going to Mayza after a lefty is probably not optimal.


Borucki, Merryweather, SRF, Zeuch should all be getting starts soon.
Waguespack, Romano, Shafer, Paulino should take over in the pen.
Paulino is on his last option, so you need to have a good look.
He's probably in the pen next year. Maybe give him a couple of starts.
Thornton should be shut down at the end of August.

Buchholz could be back by August. I don't really want him back. He's a free agent.
Tepera could be back by mid August. Out of options, so up he goes.
Axford? Maybe tell him to rest for next year?
Luciano is not eligible to come off the IL60 until late August.


Pompey is out of option, so should be up as soon as his rehab is over.
Devon Travis has 2 options and is bound for Buffalo.
McGuire should replace Maile after the next round of catcher promotion.

Then there's who ever we get back in trades.
Stroman, Giles and Hudson should be top targets for many teams.

I am of the same view as dangordon. I actually could see extending Sogard  and Smoak for a year or two (if they are interested), and holding on to Galvis. Galvis, Bichette, Biggio and VGJ is a nice infield with Sogard and Smoak providing the perfect amount of depth.

Sogard isn't necessary going to maintain this level.
He's a free agent. Somebody will overpay for him if he doesn't have a bad second half.

They have Galvis for another year and I like him as a utility player.
There's no point to make him sit, so it's a tough choice.
We haven't seen Bichette yet.
It's a decision to take this winter.

The young guys have to take over.
This is the year to fall back on vets for advice.
Next year they have to play their best players, those with a future.
I don't know if they can have a DH rather than rotating guys through.
The Jays really came alive this year when Smoak was on the IL.
They've had infield hits. They hustled. This is where Bichette will take the team, not Smoak.

Signing Smoak was an unpopular decision and so will be letting him go.

Extending Smoak for him to provide depth?

I doubt he would be down for that. He will expect to be the first choice, not the depth choice.

Well, the market for players of Smoak's abilities and age is limited now. He can get 500 PAs as a first baseman/DH/pinch-hitter in the role I suggested. We will see what he wants to do. I am pretty sure that the Jays won't get much for him at the deadline.

"Jansen's at an .850 OPS or so over the last 28 days (only 65 PA). But still..."

He's now up to .983 over the last 30 days.

Over the last 28 days Jansen has slashed .306/.348/.661. And that's with a BABIP of just .271. Very encouraging.

I always believed in the bat. Still, it's amazing how quickly his bat has turned around.

The young position players have made progress as they work towards 500 ABs. That is a positive as well as most/all have been injury free except Vlad on the ML roster and minor league players like Alford and Pompey to name 2.

The minor league pitching has been good/progressing when healthy. However health is a major concern IMO. That is why I personally rank SRF as high as I do. Thornton as well seems durable.

SO how are the kid hitters doing so far?
20 years old
Vlad: 247/326/414 - 99 OPS+
24 years old
Biggio: 246/379/456 - 125 OPS+
Tellez: 230/285/444 - 93 OPS+
Jansen: 208/281/371 - 75 OPS+
25 years old
Gurriel: 303/354/622 - 156 OPS+
26 years old
Hernandez: 204/270/364 - 69 OPS+
Drury: 218/266/374 - 70 OPS+
27 years old
Grichuk: 233/291/417 - 88 OPS+

Yeah, stretching 'youth' a bit there, but those are the key pieces for the future plus Hernandez & Drury who some (media) think are still prospects.

Clearly CF is a hole right now and putting Hernandez there isn't a solution by any stretch of the imagination. I'd rather see Davis or Alford in CF. Davis in AAA since demotion: 212/343/388 which sucks but at least is getting on base thus more valuable than Hernandez, he is a bit old at 27 but Hernandez at 26 isn't a spring chicken either. Alford has been better hitting 256/340/405 at age 24. I'd call him up first if healthy (hasn't played since June 23 after hitting 361/451/525 in June)

I don't know what people are looking for in a CF. 2 ML CF players are extremely good. Trout and Yelich. Could be in our system now but a huge long shot.

I am not sure who was the best all time Jays CF. Mosby, Wells, White, S Stewart. I guess Pillar and Reed Johnson would be ok. Should not be too hard to produce/acquire that.

What is Atkins looking for. I feel quite sure that he will sacrifice defense for offense.

2 ML CF players are extremely good. Trout and Yelich.

Yelich is a RF. Cain is Milwaukee's CF.

Past Calendar Year:


2B Sogard (32): 253pa, 10.3b%/14.2k%, .326bip/.305avg, .191iso, 132wrc+, 5.1war650
RF Gurriel (25): 387pa, 5.4b%/23.8k%, .352bip/.305avg, .246iso, 137wrc+, 4.0war650
LF Biggio (24): 141pa, 17.7b%/26.2k%, .306bip/.246avg, .211iso, 126wrc+, 2.8war650
1B Smoak (32): 558pa, 14.2b%/23.9k%, .267bip/.239avg, .220iso, 121wrc+, 2.0war650
CF Grichuk (27): 636pa, 6.3b%/27.8k%, .303bip/.248avg, .221iso, 105wrc+, 1.8war650
SS Galvis (29): 651pa, 5.5b%/22.7k%, .317bip/.258avg, .182iso, 101wrc+, 2.5war650
DH Tellez (24): 347pa, 5.5b%/28.2k%, .297bip/.248avg, .233iso, 100wrc+, 0.6war650
3B Vladdy (20): 242pa, 10.3b%/19.0k%, .278bip/.247avg, .167iso, 98wrc+, 0.3war650
C Jansen (24): 320pa, 9.1b%/19.7k%, .242bip/.219avg, .170iso, 85wrc+, 3.9war650

UT McKinney (24): 292pa, 7.2b%/25.0k%, .279bip/.231avg, .182iso, 88wrc+, -0.7war650
OF Teoscar (26): 455pa, 9.2b%/34.1k%, .282bip/.207avg, .176iso, 76wrc+, -0.9war650
IF Drury (26): 307pa, 5.5b%/27.0k%, .264bip/.207avg, .140iso, 58wrc+, -1.3war650
C Maile (28): 194pa, 7.7b%/24.2k%, .283bip/.216avg, .091iso, 60wrc+, 2.7war650


CF Davis (27): 78pa, 3.8b%/24.4k%, .204bip/.162avg, .054iso, 11wrc+, -4.2war650
RF Alford (24): 8pa, 0.0b%/50.0k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+, -16.3war650
LF Pompey* (26): ---
3B Urena (23): 132pa, 6.1b%/28.8k%, .410bip/.281avg, .058iso, 83wrc+, 1.5war650
SS Bichette (21): ----
2B Travis* (28): 201pa, 4.0b%/14.9k%, .250bip/.234avg, .151iso, 76wrc+, -1.0war650
1B Hanson (26): 227pa, 2.2b%/27.8k%, .285bip/.214avg, .093iso, 43wrc+, -2.9war650
DH Brito (26): 70pa, 10.0b%/32.9k%, .179bip/.129avg, .081iso, 14wrc+, -6.5war650
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 6.1b%/27.3k%, .350bip/.290avg, .290iso, 146wrc+, 7.9war650

There’s lots of reasons for optimism- this looks to be a good year on the development front for some key position players. But this team isn’t one or two players away from being playoff caliber.

I am not sure who was the best all time Jays CF. Mosby, Wells, White, S Stewart.

Vernon Wells has 28.7 bWAR with Toronto. Moseby is at 26.0, Devo is at 22.3, and Stewart is at 18.7, though he's mostly a left fielder. Kevin Pillar accumulated 14.3 bWAR for his Toronto career.

Thanks James W for a great answer. However there is a skill set that is necessary in CF in my opinion. Still wondering about it.
I am quite sure that speed is necessary to get to balls. Extra fast means that you can cover more ground.
Proper positioning is very helpful as is getting a fast jump on the batted ball by being able to recognize where it is going off the bat.
Being able to catch the ball when it gets to you is very important. I have seen many dropped balls.
Not running into your teammates is a positive IMO. Too often it is looked at as "playing the game hard" which is sort of glorified.

I am sure that there is a minimum bar for offense. The weak offensive CF may get runners on the bases in a crucial part of the game and is an easy out. The pitcher may even choose to load the bases to get to the CF. Pillar's offensive bar was fairly low but he achieved the bar and is lasting a long time at CF.

i don't know who the best centerfielder all-time for the Jays was but Devon White was my favorite. He was built like a greyhound and was as fast as one, too. I also have a soft spot for Kevin Pillar, a late round pick who made the most of his ability.

Someone mentioned Devin Travis earlier. Does he actually fit in the Jay's plans anymore with the emergence of Cavan Biggio ? I can't see it myself.

not sure biggio is a 2b for much longer.

Defense will be an issue going forward without a doubt as Biggio, Vlad, and Bo have all been viewed as not good at their positions defensively. One might be able to go to CF, another to 1B with Tellez to DH (if he hits enough). LF/RF look set though.

I feel for our pitchers going forward, but the offense should be sweet.

Jonathan Davis has been called up. Gurriel and Teoscar are nursing minor injuries and are day to day.

Pannone optioned.

Stroman wont pitch before the ASG.

I don't see Travis playing 2B in Toronto in the foreseeable future.
He's 28. The last time he was an above average batter, he was 25.
Injuries and lack of playing time are not going to prevent his decline.
On the contrary.

I'm not even sure there's room for Travis on the 40 roster.

not sure biggio is a 2b for much longer

I have no idea if Biggio can meet the demands of 2B, but there seems to be little evidence that the experiment will be stopping anytime soon.

Sogard keeps DHing and playing the outfield ahead of Biggio. Drury keeps playing the outfield ahead of Biggio. Did Biggio start at 1B during Smoak's injury or was that all Tellez?

Does he [Travis] actually fit in the Jay's plans anymore with the emergence of Cavan Biggio ?

When he went down this last time, I thought his days as a Jay were done. I still think so, Biggio or no Biggio. Maybe someone else will give him a shot. I don't know. He looked quite promising back in the day, but instead of developing he backslid (in no small part due to his health). His ship may sadly have sailed. Another athlete betrayed by his body.

A dollar to anyone who predicted that even once this year the starting outfield would be Drury/Hernandez/Sogard. Okay, two dollars. I trust you.

Biggio's numbers at 2B don't look bad so far - his Total Zone per season is bang on average. His OF numbers don't look good, in a very small sample size. I'd say keep him at 2B until he shows he can't handle the position. Galvis is on pace for a 3 WAR season, and close to 30 HR's. You can move Vladdy to 1B, and play either Galvis or Bichette at 3B, or if they are determined to keep Vladdy at 3B, then Biggio can play 1B, and Bichette or Galvis can play 2B. As Mike Green said above, that's a good infield. With Jansen now hitting, and Gurriel/Grichuk in the corners, and if you keep Smoak as the DH, or failing that, use Tellez or mix and match, you're going to have a really good offense.

If you add a free agent, call him Cole, and have a rotation of Cole, Stroman, Borucki, Pearson (at some point next year), plus Shoemaker if he's healthy, and one of the other guys until Pearson comes up (Thornton, Merryweather, Reid-Foley, Pannone, etc), that's a good rotation, and the bullpen looks solid, and if you keep Giles, outstanding (Giles, Phelps, Tepera, Hudson, Mayza, Romano, Gaviglio, one or two of the starter candidates, maybe Shafer, Z. Jackson or Tice).

That's a playoff contender, absolutely. Even better if you can add a CF, or Alford takes a step forward.

Next year is not the "competitive" year.
It's the "more competitive"  year.

If they get to pick 5th overall, they'll have a decent draft budget and they're not signing anyone with a QO attached.

Also next year, they'll still be kicking the tires on this year's rookies plus the next batch.
Starters will fail and be moved to the pen.
Guys in Buffalo who are kicking doors will get looks.

Manage your expectations.

I like what they are doing.
San Diego has tied a lot of money on Machado, Hosmer, Myers, to provide the leadership we're getting from Smoak, Galvis and Sogard.
More importantly, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, etc are all leaders in their own right.
Fans in KC are questioning where their rebuild is going and are afraid the Marlins and the Orioles will leapfrog them.  It's probably the same with the Tigers and the White Sox.

The 2020 Jays need to be something like 25 wins better than the 2019 Jays. Adding Cole and a healthy Borucki, and some improvement from the core of Vladdy, Biggio, Gurriel and Jansen, isn’t going to do it.

You'd also be adding Bichette, Shoemaker, Pearson and maybe a CF. Tepera and Phelps back from injury. Possibility of contributions from Merryweather, Romano, Alford and others.

On pace for 60 wins. 30 win improvement would be 90 wins which Tampa had last year and didn't even get them a Wild Card.

Expecting 2020 Bichette to be better than 2019 Galvis isn’t particularly reasonable. I’m not even sure that expecting the core of Vladdy, Gurriel, Biggio and Jansen to be materially better in 2020 than 2019 is particularly likely given how Gurriel has performed. Expecting a significant number of innings from Burucki and Shoemaker also isn’t likely given their injury history. There’s a situation where absolutely everything goes right next year and the team is a playoff team, it’s just a remote possibility. If the team is 10 wins better next year, that will be a successful year for me.

I don't think about Bichette being better than Galvis - I think about him being better than Drury, which is almost a certainty. I would expect Vladdy to be a LOT better than this year, as he has not hit as well as most expected. I would say that Borucki should be healthy, and Shoemaker's injury is not career ending. Anyway, we clearly see the team very differently. I would say your "10 wins better" scenario would fit if they do a wholesale sell off this year, and have significant injury trouble yet again next year. If they can get major assets in return for the guys they might trade, then I would be in favour, but if they can only get stuff like what they got last year, or slightly better, than I think they should keep/extend the players they have as they could be a pretty good team next year.

It's tough to predict how many games better they'll be in the second half of 2020 vs the second half of 2019. Most of that will come just from not selling.

For the first halves, improvements should come easily.
They started with good pitching and no hitting and then switched to good hitting with terrible starting pitching.

Right now they are 28th for batting avg. 27th for OBP. 25th for OPS. 12th for HR and 26th for SB.

They are dead last in starter WHIP and walks,  29th for ERA, 29 for hits allowed, 27th for strike outs and 16th for home run allowed.

Jansen alone could make a huge difference, but how do you go around predicting anything?

I can't see the Jays being that much better next year without an improvement in the starting rotation, especially if Stroman is traded. A full season from Borucki and Shoemaker would help, but overall I wouldn't expect anymore than a 10 win gain. That's not to say there's not a bright future in sight but it takes time for young players to get established and we have to be patient.

The FOs goals were to try to compete in 2017 and 2018. They tried. 2019 and 2020 were to not compete.

So far they are not competing in 2019. They added a lot of cheap quantity both inexperienced and experienced. Galvis and Sogart are cheap experienced additions that are doing very well. So big wins for the Jays. Bad memory ... I can only remember 1 cheap off season trade for a veteran (Richard). I forgot the details.
There were further additions of the mediocre variety. Buchholz. Brito and Kingham were added for a potential future value. Edwin Jackson was added due to desperation.

There is very little actual playing success this year so far. Galvis and Sogard were good surprises. I expected/hoped for the success that Stroman and Giles are giving based on their past history. I also expected a few unknown pleasant successes in the pitching. Hudson and Thornton.

I did not expect the pitching injuries to be this bad. The lack of reliable starters has tired out the pen. They are coughing up leads now that we are getting a few.

Atkins has shown patience in promotions. This is a good idea.

Almost everyone is playing multiple positions which has probably caused more losses. There is a reason for this but we don't know what it is.

If Stroman and Giles are traded the pitching will be even worse. Our best SP at going deep into games and a closer that has success.

So for me there is no good reason to feel good or bad about the season so far. Regarding next season I don't expect to compete because no good players will be added. I expect that we will just play our prospects for them to further develop. Mediocre veterans will be added because of the value/protection they provide.