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Lansing were the only winners on Thursday. Griffin Conine and Gabriel Moreno featured in the win. Elsewhere there were some OK performances but not a lot of competition for the three stars.

Charlotte 6 Buffalo 0

New Hampshire 0 Reading 1, suspended in first inning

Lakeland 10 Dunedin 6, 10 innings

Burlington 4 Lansing 5

Vancouver 1 Spokane 5

Bluefield 1 Burlington 4

GCL Tigers 12 GCL Blue Jays 3

DSL Reds 11 DSL Blue Jays 2



This is what I noted from yesterday's games.


Ryan Feierabend hasn't mastered his knuckleball primary arsenal yet. Feierabend came to the Jays system as a pitcher who used his knuckleball as one of a number of pitches. After his stay in the major leagues he was asked to use his knuckleball more. It has been hit and miss since then and this game was a miss. The Knights picked up 11 hits in six innings off him. He was charged with four runs, three earned.

Bo Bichette has one hit, a single. This has been your daily Bo report.

Dalton Pompey was 0-4 with two K's.

Rowdy Tellez had two hits but the power has not shown up since he went down to Buffalo.

Joey Murray was promoted to New Hampshire and he got off to a rough start. The first three hitters all had a hit with one run scoring. Then the rains came, the game was suspended and will be continued tomorrow, without Murray.

Troy Watson had a rough start, like Murray. Watson pitched six innings but ten hits and two walks led to four runs. Promotions are learning experiences.

I mentioned yesterday that Demi Orimoloye was heating up. He had two more hits on Thursday with two RBI and two runs scored.

Samad Taylor and Cullen Large each had two hits. Large hit well earlier in the season, injured his shoulder and hasn't hit as well since. Taylor didn't do much in the first half of the season. He hit better in June and has hit really well in July with an OPS of 913.

The D-Jays gave up five runs in the tenth inning, all off Jackson Rees. The runs were unearned because Chris Bec made two errors in the inning.

Griffin Conine hit his 13th home run and a double. He also picked up his daily strikeout.

Gabriel Moreno also picked up two hits to bring his average back over 300. Not bad for a 19 year old.

Juan De Paula hasn't pitched well since he came over in the Kevin Pillar trade. This was an OK start with three runs conceded in four innings. His ERA is over nine.

Three players are hitting in Vancouver and on Thursday they had five of the C's six hits. Philip Clarke and Trevor Schwecke had two each and Yorman Rodriguez had one.

Javier D'Orazio hit very well in the DSL, was promoted to the GCL and started well. But his average had been sliding. Today BA named him in the Jays top 30 prospects so he picked up three hits to celebrate. His GCL average is now .244.

Andrew Sopko made his second rehab start. He pitched four innings, and should be ready to pitch for Buffalo next time out.


Three Stars

Third Star - Demi Orimoloye

Second Star - Javier D'Orazio

First Star - Griffin Conine


Boxes

Lansing or Bust | 41 comments | Create New Account
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jerjapan - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#377361) #
Those five unearned runs Rees gave up are one more than the total number of earned runs he's surrendered all year.  Hard to get excited about a 24 year old reliever in A ball, but it's still fascinating to follow him dominating like this. 

Can someone remind me why Samad Taylor is still viewed as a prospect? 
Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#377364) #
Taylor just turned 21 and he's in the FSL.  He plays a key defensive position, runs well, has some pop and will take a walk.  He strikes out too much (and that's a big one), but not terminally so.  Yes, he's hitting .217 but it's an extreme pitching friendly environment so his .217/.323/.350 slash line equates to a 105 wRC+.  If he can knock his K rate down a little in the last 6 weeks of the year, he has a chance to end the year having held his own. 

If you're ranking Taylor against the Dunedin pitchers (Castillo, Winckowski, Murray), it's very important to bear in mind the extreme environment.  In many ways, Taylor and Castillo/Wincowski are flip sides of each other with K issues (not enough of them for the pitchers, too many of them for Taylor) but other strengths. 
SK in NJ - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#377365) #
As Mike mentioned, Taylor can draw walks, has good speed, and decent power for a middle infielder. Contact and strike outs are definitely an issue for him that will need to be corrected but he is a 20 year old in A+ (just turned 21 this month) and has gotten better as the season has gone on.

April-May: 149 PA, .168/.291/.256, 72 wRC+, 12.1 BB%, 28.2 K%, .241 BABIP, 7 SB, 6 CS

June-July: 107 PA, .283/.368/.478, 151 wRC+, 10.3 BB%, 24.3 K%, .359 BABIP, 10 SB, 1 CS

Still a work in progress, but if he can finish July and August off strong, then you're looking at an athletic 21 year old 2B possibly ready for AA next season with speed, eye, and decent pop. He's not a top prospect, but someone to keep an eye on. Age is on his side.
Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#377367) #
Taylor hits a lot of pop-ups.  You want him to be hitting line-drives and ground balls, and relatively fewer fly balls.  I'm not sure he's in need of the full treatment that Whitey Herzog gave Ozzie Smith, but you do need to get the message across that a ground ball is a far, far better outcome for Taylor than a pop-up.  It's true generally, but in the case of Taylor, he's going to have to be selective about the occasions when he wants to try to hit a long fly ball. 
bpoz - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#377370) #
Is Orelvis Martinez injured? He has not player much lately.
PeterG - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#377371) #
Jim Callas cites Gabriel Moreno as a prospect the Jays might be willing to trade for pitching help.
Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#377372) #
Of course, the Blue Jays ought to be exploring ways of converting their catching depth into pitching/centerfield depth.  I love Moreno, and like Dan Gordon, I'd have him as the 3rd or 4th best prospect in the organization. Jordan Groshans is a mid-first round pick who has had a pretty good year since being drafted, and that's roughly how I would value Moreno. 
PeterG - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#377373) #
Martinez appears to be playing but not all the time. So far, Jhon Solarte and Michael Dominguez (15th round) appear to be the best performing prospects.
uglyone - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#377374) #
If "pitching help" means "elite pitching prospect", then maybe trading Moreno makes sense.

jerjapan - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#377378) #
Thanks for the feedback on Taylor, I know he's been a favourite around here for a reason and I do underestimate the park effects in Dunedin at times. 

Prospect for prospect trades are still pretty rare, and I'm not sure if Atkins is aggressive enough to go that path - but it certainly makes sense for us given our apparent preference for position players in the draft and the IFA market.  Jansenn looks to be at least a solid starter for the foreseeable future, and McGuire looks like a perfect D-first backup. 
scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#377381) #
With Smith sliding down, catcher is the position of strength to deal from.
Moreno is still very young and does not figure to be a regular until 2022 or 2023.
He should be a good target for a rebuilding club that won't be competing for a while.

Not a lot of clubs trade elite pitching. You probably need a team with a surplus and a need.

uglyone - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#377394) #
"He should be a good target for a rebuilding club that won't be competing for a while."

Sounds familiar.
Gerry - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#377413) #
After I mentioned Tellez's lack of power above, he homered tonight. Dalton Pompey was 2-4.
Gerry - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#377414) #
The Jays were supposed to loosen the reins on Nate Pearson but again he was pulled after 60pitches tonight. He gave up one run in 3.1. Three walks and three K's suggest he is not on top form.
Nigel - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#377417) #
Pearsonís doing just fine but nothing that screams promotion or that heíll be ready for MLB next season (other than maybe the end of the year). I would guess that the plan is for him to finish the year in NH and pitch a chunk of next year in Buffalo. Of course, that can change quickly with premium prospects.
John Northey - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#377422) #
Tellez has tons of power, he just has trouble with the solid contact part on a consistent basis. I suspect the Jays have asked him to do certain things in AAA and he is probably determined to prove he should be up with the other kids. He knows Smoak is likely gone in the next 2 weeks so all he needs to do is prove he should take over once that happens. Hopefully he acts like Devon White did when the Angels sent him down - hit the crap out of the ball and force the issue (he was traded to the Jays that winter 'attitude problem' was what the Angels sold it as).

Pompey needs to show he can stay healthy. When he and Pillar came up he was the better prospect, stronger on defense and offense and handed CF. He lost it. Then got hurt a lot. I really hope he makes it back up and lives up to some of that promise. A 90 OPS+ with strong CF defense and great speed would be fantastic. Hernandez was poor in LF for defense, now in CF due to a shortage of options and just hitting 209/276/406 after tonight (HR, 2 for 4). I'd love Pompey out there instead - lets see if he can do it.
scottt - Saturday, July 20 2019 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#377427) #
Service manipulation and all, Pearson should spend enough time in Buffalo to buy another year of control and then you bring him him up for a number of starts with strict pitch counts. The Buffalo time should be used to stretch him into at least a 5 inning starter. If the inning count gets too high, you move him to an opener role at some point during the year.
Gerry - Saturday, July 20 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#377468) #
Jey Murray only pitched to three hitters on Thursday so New Hampshire rolled him out again tonight. He pitched four good innings with five K's and one run allowed.
uglyone - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 02:53 AM EDT (#377471) #
Looks like young Tice has earned the closer role in buffalo.
Nigel - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#377505) #
McGuire has now gotten his OPS up to .700 in Buffalo. It would be a huge asset to this roster if he could hit enough to be a big leaguer. LH Cs are worth their weight in gold. His defence looked good last September as well.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#377544) #
The number nerd in me loves the fact that Griffin Conine's last 8 games have had strikeout numbers of "3, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4". The Jays fan in me, however...
scottt - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#377553) #
McGuire should be a solid backup. You don't need power there. Maile's OBP is .211.



Gerry - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#377555) #
Good start for Kloff today, six innings, one run.
Gerry - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#377556) #
SRF threw 73 pitches today, 53 for strikes. That's good. He gave up six runs, thats bad. But there was one big hit, a grand slam that made his line look really bad.
Gerry - Sunday, July 21 2019 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#377557) #
Hector Perez threw six shutout innings. Maybe he is getting used to AA.

Kevin Smith homered again but still has a BA under 200.
85bluejay - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#377579) #
As much as I like Perez, until he improves the walk rate he seems bullpen bound.
Mike Green - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#377580) #
Smith has had a nice run since the double A All-Star break- with 6 homers, 4 walks and 10 strikeouts in 40 PAs. He turned 23 on July 4, and perhaps a light went on.  He can still salvage his season with a good ending. 
bpoz - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#377581) #
I believe in being patient with prospects that move up a level. So The struggling ones or those failing to dominate don't lose their number on my top 50 list. Actually maybe not top 10 list.

So K Smith is safe at #8.
I really hope that SRF and Bo get the required ML time to be off prospect lists. That would free 4 of my top 10 spots. A 5th is freed up because Alford has taken too long to advance.

G Moreno & A Kirk seem to have earned a top 10 spot due to their dominance.

I may add M Castillo because he has impressed me with how he overcame the struggle to hang in there while being very young for all the levels he played in. I also want to start taking chances in my rankings. Borucki pitched 150 innings in 2016 so he was healthy. He also got absolutely hammered in the 20 innings he pitched at Dunedin that year. Health is a concern for Borucki but not M Castillo it seems.

M Castillo if healthy would get to prove more during the playoffs this year. As a 20 year old next year to start AA he will again have a huge challenge if promoted.
Mike Green - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#377582) #
Kevin Smith's home/road splits for 2019:
Home: .105/.178/.177
Away: .266/.321/.580

It is a tough park for a right-handed fly ball pull hitter.  It's easy to imagine him overswinging at home to try to compensate.
bpoz - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#377584) #
M Green you are probably right about K Smith. July 11 -21 is the last 10 games so SSS. In the 2 home games he produced nothing, 2Ks. The other 8 games were on the road and he was V good.

You have set me up to compare his results for the rest of the season and a bigger sample size. You are right about the home/away splits. Possible hot streak.

I love to see details like this because I understand them.The minor league staffs are probably monitoring this kind of stuff. They should also analyse how players do against lefties/righties, flyball/groundball this would help give an understanding of a prospects strengths and weaknesses.
Mike Green - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#377585) #
Smith's H/R splits are the most extreme that I have ever seen. 

I had an e-mail discussion with Nate Silver about Aaron Hill's prospect status a long time ago- BP at the time took the view that Hill did not have enough power to make it, and I pointed out the H/R splits.  Hill's splits were less extreme than Smith's. 
PeterG - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#377586) #
The possible solution for this is to move him to Buffalo and see what happens, maybe after July 31.
Kelekin - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#377588) #
He still strikes out 1 in every 3 at bats on the road. No ball park will fix that core issue.
85bluejay - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#377591) #
Talking about turning his season around - Toolsy but raw canadian prospect Demi Orimoloye (Curtis Granderson trade) 2nd half numbers are encouraging - 101ab .924 ops,13XBH including 5HR ,8/1 SB and most impressive 18K/10BB and he's about 4 months younger than Cal Stevenson - while Stevenson has the much higher floor, Demi has the kind of upside you dream about especially in the AL east.
Mike Green - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#377593) #
That's true, Kelekin.  Striking out a lot is part of what Smith does.  He's got to make up for it with hard contact, speed and defence, and if all that follows, he might be able to incrementally improve his walk rates. 

He isn't a great prospect because of the strikeout rates, but I still see hope.
Nigel - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#377601) #
I'd worry less about Smith's K% if this were the first spike in that number. It was bad after his promotion to Dunedin too. For all of that, he looks like Rod Carew relative to Conine. It's a really narrow way to be successful. Grichuk is an example of someone who's made it work with very high k%'s but sometimes it doesn't (like this year). Any drop in power or a bit of bad luck in the BABIP and that offensive profile is nearly unplayable.
bpoz - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#377603) #
The new guy Justin Ammons is 3 for 3 in the GCL. 1st game. Playing CF.
uglyone - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#377604) #
the line is looking less and less disagreeable as the year moves on.

He is now an age-appropriate good-glove SS in AA, who is hitting near league average despite a very low babip, and showing plenty of pop in the bat. That's still pretty good, despite the K% worry spot, even if it's a downgrade from last year.

and there's enough season left that he could still end up substantially higher than league average hitter as an age appropriate good glove SS in AA, which would make him still look like a pretty darn good prospect, flawed or not.

APR 27.2k%, 67wrc+
MAY 31.7k%, 79wrc+
JUN 37.9k%, 67wrc+
JUL 23.3k%, 236wrc+
Gerry - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#377611) #
New Hampshire and Bluefield rained out tonight.
Gerry - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#377617) #
Dunedin rained out too.
Kelekin - Monday, July 22 2019 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#377618) #
Demi had an amazing June, for sure. Unfortunately his July has been poor again, but his strikeout numbers have improved which is always a good sign.

For the new signing, Ammons, he had an up and down three year career at Tennessee. He stole a lot of bases this year, and he's always had decent BB:K, but power and batting average has been low. Seems likely to be an injury signing, so congratulations to him. I love UDFAs.
Lansing or Bust | 41 comments | Create New Account
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