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Since beating up the Orioles right after the all-star break, the Rays have lost three straight series versus the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox. The Rays looked like they were headed for a wild card spot but now find themselves on the outside. The Rays have lost Kevin Kiermaier, Blake Snell and Yandy Diaz over the last week. The Jays will not miss facing Snell, and Kiermaier always seems to play well against the Jays. The Jays come off an off day and will navigate "maximum rumour weekend" (tm).

SCHEDULE

Friday, 7:07, Diego Castillo vs. Jacob Waguespack

Saturday, 3:07, Undecided vs. Ryan Borucki

Sunday, 1:07, Yonny Chirinos vs. Aaron Sanchez


The pitching lineup for this series will not place fear into the hitters. For the Jays Waguespack has been inconsistent, Borucki rusty and Sanchez, dare I say it, improving. Can the Jays hitters deliver against the Rays pitching?

Rays at Blue Jays - July 26-29 | 218 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#377901) #
"maximum rumour weekend" sounds like something from the late 70s/early 80s.  Let's see- "maximum" is  from the Boss, "rumour" is from Fleetwood Mac (or better yet Graham Parker), "weekend" is generic but let's say Loverboy.

We steal from all the best sources!

I was pleased with Montoyo's handling of Sanchez' last start- he took Sanchez out after 5 innings and 80 pitches despite the fact that the Jays were trailing 1-0 at the time.  Most times, he would have been sent out for the 6th to "give him an opportunity for the win".  Frankly, I highly doubt that Sanchez will be able to sustain performance unless his workload is cut back further but we shall see. 
cascando - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#377902) #
Sanchez is probably the top candidate of all time for your tandem starter idea. Assuming he doesnít want to come out of the bullpen.
Paul D - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#377903) #
I wonder what kind of return Josh Donaldson would fetch at this year's trade deadline
Nigel - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#377904) #
It will be interesting to watch Waguespack and Thornton over the next year or so. Thornton has the single best weapon of the two pitchers with his high spin rate FB. But, all in all, Waguespack seems to have the better starters arsenal. Iíd be surprised if either is a starter on the next competitive Jays team, but I like Waguespackís chances slightly better.
krose - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#377905) #
Two base hit plus one more on the error.
krose - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#377906) #
That wasnít real difficult. Even an old little league umpire knows that.
krose - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#377907) #
New strategy for outfielders. If the play at home is going to be close just bump the ball into the stands.
Magpie - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#377908) #
If the play at home is going to be close just bump the ball into the stands.

That's what I was thinking. Some bright guy will try it.
scottt - Friday, July 26 2019 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#377911) #
Curious to see if Sanchez can heck out a win from Undecided.
grjas - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#377914) #
I always thought Jeter was a bit of a jerk despite the yankee fan fawning and for me this clinches it. Classless.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2846992-why-2-mlb-legends-may-boycott-derek-jeter-hof-induction-in-2020?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#377918) #
Jeter has always been Mister Money. His principal residence is in Florida even though he barely spent any time there and had multi-million apartments in the Bronx. God Forbids he pays a 9% tax rate.
scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#377919) #
It looks like the Braves were never interested in Stroman. AA seems to be looking at Mike Minor and one of the Royals pitcher.

From the Cardinals, Junior Fernandez is a reliever, not enough to headline a deal. Dylan Carlson could be a decent right fielder, but that would be more a target for moving a hot Grichuk. I'd keep Stroman rather than trade him for a position player., unless we're talking about a top 25 prospect.

Spencer Howard is very intriguing. He was dominating in A+ ball. He debuted in AA yesterday and Ked 10 Fisher Cats in 4 and 2/3 innings. The scouting report says he has some control issues but he has 5 walks and 48 strike outs in A+ ball this year.



PeterG - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#377920) #
The two Dutch kids, Robberse and Casimiri pitched in GCL game today and neither gave up a hit, the former in 2 IP and the latter in 1 1/3. Dasan Brown had another hit.
PeterG - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#377921) #
Each of those Dutch pitchers is 17 years old. I wonder where and when we will see 21 year old Cuban signee Yosver Zulueta who is highly regarded in his homeland.
uglyone - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#377922) #
Maile injured, McGuire up.
SK in NJ - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#377923) #
@Ken_Rosenthal
One of many scenarios #Mets are exploring, per sources: Syndergaard to #Padres, then using some of return to land Stroman from #BlueJays. Not known which players would go from SD to NYM if deal occurred. RHP Cal Quantrill, a Canadian native, would be logical target for TOR.
uglyone - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#377924) #
Mets are so weird.
SK in NJ - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#377925) #
Followup from the previous Tweet:

@Ken_Rosenthal
In this scenario, #Mets would not simply add Stroman from #BlueJays. They would acquire pieces from #Padres as well. #Astros also mounting push for Stroman due to their reluctance to meet NYMís price for Syndergaard. Other teams also in mix for Jaysí ace.
hypobole - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#377926) #
Axford pitched an inning the GCL game today.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#377927) #
Yeah, I keep trying to think how this works, and it just keeps looking weird. Mejia would have to go to the Mets, but they're not a contender this year. Are they honestly a contender next year? If not, what would this be for? Leave it to the Mets to figure out the Most Mets way to deal their best asset.
Gerry - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#377928) #
Maile to the IL with an oblique injury. McGuire called up. I suggested the Jays look at McGuire earlier this week so now they can.
krose - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#377929) #
Guerrero sure has difficulty seeing that curve ball. Just doesnít seem to pick up spin. Wonder if Biggio could help him. Still donít think he ever develops into a real high end major league hitter. Hope he learns to pick up on the curve ball but Iím also not sure that the visual acuity required is teachable.
scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#377930) #
Quite happy about this honestly. McGuire can't hit worse than Maile and half the pitchers are used to him anyway.

The Rays is the one team I don't want the Jays to beat, but that doesn't make it enjoyable to watch.

scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#377931) #
You can't teach maturity, but it shows up eventually.
It took guys like EE, Bautista and Smoak several years.
It's not something you can practice in the cage.
Sogard has a fantastic approach at the plate, yet it's all new to him.

krose - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#377932) #
Iíd agree with that Scott. Smart hitters learn to consider the probability of what is coming and of its location. But hitters still have to very quickly discern whether their prediction was correct. No thinking allowed!
krose - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#377933) #
Sorry to see Maile injured. Heíd be the best defensive catcher on several teams. Was hoping heíd be traded.
scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#377934) #
There was no interest for Maile. He's hitting worse than an average NL pitcher.
There might be some for Smoak. He could fit in Houston for either a minimal return or bundled as part of a package.

The Yankees are trying to get something for Frazier and the Padres are trying to move Urias, a bat first second baseman. Syndergaard to San Diego and some of the return sent back to Toronto for Stroman makes no sense to me. Syndergaard appears to be overshadowing Stroman on the trade market and D'arnaud is playing great for the Rays, just in case you still liked the Dickie trade.

christaylor - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#377935) #
I'm not sure what you mean by visual acuity in this context. That said, it may be that I teach optometry students is preventing me from grokking your intended meaning. In general ball players, even those with optical correction, will score better than "20/20" when tested.
krose - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#377936) #
Not sure I remember the sub tests and general categories of measurement but visual acuity was a nonmedical term we used to describe cognitive assessment results related intellectual testing. Mmmm! Could be wrong but we might have arrived at the intersection of Nature and Nurture.
mathesond - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#377937) #
Nice little late rally by the boys in blue.
krose - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#377938) #
Yes. Well worth watching.
ayjackson - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#377939) #
20 year old has .750 OPS in first half season in MLB.

I'm encouraged.
Magpie - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#377940) #
Had 'em all the way.
scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#377942) #
Good game. Cash made some dubious moves with the pen,
Also, I kept thinking, Drake wasn't good enough for the Jays...

scottt - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#377943) #
Astros and Dodgers are now in the Stroman market.
Interestingly, the idea for the Dodgers would be to move on of their starters to the pen.
They could be downright scary.
The Astros are given up on Syndergaard because the Mets price is too high.

uglyone - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#377944) #
Yanks go head to head with the sox and give up 13 runs per game heading into game 4 tomorrow.

That's gotta give them a bit of a sick feeling heading into the deadline.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 27 2019 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#377945) #
The Jays had some bad luck early on this year, losing Shoemaker to injury after his strong start. But this season is no repeat of last year, when Happ stalled out a month or so before the deadline. This year the team has a number of valuable assets to move at the deadline: Stroman, Giles, Hudson, Phelps, Galvis, Sogard, Smoak. They could come away with a very good collection of prospects in exchange for that group.
dan gordon - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#377948) #
Quantrill has had some struggles along the way. His career ERA and WHIP in the minors are 4.46 and 1.44. That includes pitching in some good hitters' leagues, although the San Antonio AA team plays in an extreme pitchers' park. His mlb numbers so far are better. Interestingly, he has extreme splits in the big leagues this year, holding RHB to an a BA of .179 and an OPS of .490. Lefties are hitting .292 against him with an OPS of .879. Teams must be stacking their lineups with lefties against him, as he has 127 plate appearances against him by lefties, compared to only 91 by righties. Very odd.
Paul D - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#377949) #
There's a report today that the Jays are interested in Edwin Diaz, possibly to flip him to the Braves. These Jays - Mets discussions seem very weird
bpoz - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#377950) #
Agree with greenfrog. Those players can have a useful role to a contender.

Their trading would free up playing time.

The return should bring back a few reasonable upside long shot, young prospects. Also we are running short of quality ML ready older prospects. 24-27 year old pitchers. The pen needs some not bad relievers.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#377951) #
Interesting bit of info from the recently promoted Yankees AAA catcher.
He said Devei Garcia hasn't figured out the AAA ball.

Yeah, maybe we won't see many pitchers jumping straight from AA to the majors with the ball not being the same.

scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#377952) #
All the news have become New York centric, so the craziest things about any Mets or Yankees player rise to the top instead of just being hand waived.
jerjapan - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#377955) #
Sounds like a pretty amazing game to have watched, sorry I missed that comeback.
Interesting article in the star today about Stroman serving as a mentor and support to our rookie pitchers.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2019/07/27/why-the-next-wave-of-blue-jays-pitching-hopes-stroman-doesnt-get-traded.html
I do see him as a leader, and would be happy if this latest talk about an extension came to something, but it worries me that Stro himself says nobody has talked to him about one.  I wonder if the talk of extension is simply to get more leverage in trade talks, but without talking to Stro, it does feel insincere.
I don't know why I bother to read 'old man yelling at clouds' Doug Smith, but I was surprised to read how harshly he feels about Ross Atkins, who in his words today "has done nothing to make me think he could ever pull off a bold, franchise-changing deal that benefits his team. And after all the interviews Iíve seen him heard and do, Iíve come away thinking a variation of ďthis dude just doesnít get it.Ē
pretty harsh words for a professional journalist. 
bpoz - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#377957) #
Atkins and Shapiro work together on player moves IMO. Beeston interfered very little. Beeston was active in payroll and Cito staying until the end of 2010. This is my view on Beeston.

Atkins/Shapiro made a very bold move by moving Tulo and Martin. More bold moves were made on player movement on and off the ML roster. I feel confident that this team will lose 93-98 games this year. The FO, coaching staff and fans are taking some big lumps.

The young position players either were slow to adjust to the Majors or quite fast (this is their 1st full season). Either opinion is not wrong IMO.

All the veteran pitchers that have been added are making less than $5 mil this year. Except for D Hudson they are all bad and/or hurt. The idea was to buy time for prospect development. A very good idea because the prospects have needed that time to try to get better or get healthy. Next year may be the same philosophy.

If Bautista and EE developed into stars late in their career as a Jays fan I have experienced this before (Henke) and expect to see it in the future.

Nobody is mentioning S Brito in Buffalo. I was very upset by his performance with the Jays this year especially the error in Boston when Sanchez had a good lead. We lost that game. But looking at him now I see good statistical performance. Has he learned to play in the field better? I don't know. He cannot repeat the Boston mistake again.

At age 26 he is in the Bautista/EE age bracket. So maybe he figures something out.
Gerry - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#377958) #
Sogard was in todays lineup but scratched just before the game. Its either an injury or a possible trade.
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#377959) #
Sogaed trade imminent according to Morosi. Question is it by himself or in a package?
Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#377960) #
Who's this guy pitching for the Jays?
finch - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#377961) #
The Rays broadcast crew reports the last 27 batters have been retired. Perfect game...kinda for the Jays :)
jerjapan - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#377962) #
6 straight Ks for Sanchez?  I'm gonna go listen to his game right now.
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#377963) #
Sogard to Tampa... For Wander Franco I assume.
finch - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#377964) #
I would think its Wander Franco plus plus.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#377965) #
Tampa are loaded. I'm not expecting anything earth shattering, but when you trade in division, you're potentially trading for players who are well known by the minor league staff.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#377966) #
I wonder if we could get a guy like Linares. or if we're settling maybe i'd like Tobias Myers from them.
grjas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#377968) #
Hopefully Bichette is packing his bags for TO. Would love to see how he hits in the bigs.
finch - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#377969) #
I expect either Brent Honeywell or Shane Baz
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#377970) #
cott Mitchell @ScottyMitchTSN
1m
#BlueJays are tentatively set to receive two PTBNL from the Rays in the Eric Sogard trade, per source, but details are still being finalized
PeterG - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#377971) #
Bichette is slumping. Urena may be the call up.
hypobole - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#377972) #
Gibaut was DFA'd Tuesday and was drawing trade interest.

40 FV guy rated at TB's 32 per FG.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#377973) #
Gibaut to the rangers. Thank God.

A 25yr old reliever would have driven me nuts.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#377974) #
on Heyman @JonHeyman
2m
Yankees are willing to trade Clint Frazier and/or Miguel Andujar for starter they need. Deivi Cruz seems to be off limits, except for Syndergaard (which is 1,000 to 1 shot to happen for other reasons; borough rivalry)


Who's gonna blink first?
Thomas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#377975) #
As the founding member of the Box's Eric Sogard fan club, from back when he first joined the organization and even from his days in Oakland, I am underwhelmed by this return.

However, I'm happy Sogard will get play meaningful baseball the rest of the year.
hypobole - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#377976) #
I am underwhelmed by this return.

What is the return?
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#377977) #
"Deivi Cruz seems to be off limits.."

Only the Yankees could make a 46 yo retired SS a centrepiece of a trade.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#377978) #
Gurriel now tied for 2nd most OF assists in mlb, despite only playing 53gms in the OF.

You'd think they'll stop running soon.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#377979) #
0 walks and 10 strikeouts for Sanchez.

What is going on.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#377980) #
Pitching to get out of town?
hypobole - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#377981) #
McKinney deserved that HR after the specious 3rd strike call the ump rung him up with his last PA.
lexomatic - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#377982) #
I absolutely think Sanchez wants out.  Good time to get hot. Hope there's a reasonable offer
Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#377983) #
Sanchez' ERA goes from 6.06 to 6.07 after today.
hypobole - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#377984) #
Sanchez very much wants to remain a starter. How many teams would have given him to rope to continue starting the way Toronto has? If he goes elsewhere chances reasonable he could well be bullpen bound.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#377985) #
Go vladdy go
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#377986) #
I want the team to move Gurriel over to right field with his cannon of an arm. Grichuk can slot in at CF and we can end the Teoscar in CF project.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#377987) #
Still want to see gurriel in CF once he gets used to the OF. He has to have the most range out there.

On another note, I'm surprised we haven't heard any rumblings about Phelps. He has the best track record of our RP, seems to be all the way back now, and has another year of control.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#377989) #
I agree we should at least try him in CF, but Grichuk has better sprint speed and reaction times than Gurriel in the OF. I donít think Grichuk is a good CFer, but he seems to have a bit more athleticism and a lot more experience.
Gerry - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#377990) #
The return for Sogard is likely to be reliever prospects from high in the system or projects from A ball.

In these trades the Jays have to consider their 40 man roster this off-season. It makes no sense to acquire a marginal player that needs to be protected so you lose an equivalent player in the rule 5 draft.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#377991) #
Szymborski (Fangraphs):

"The cost for adding Sogard is likely to be a minimal one. While there have been conflicting rumor-inations about the players in return, it strikes me that no matter whoís ultimately identified, itís likely that weíre talking low-level organizational players. If there were prospects of significance involved, I suspect the Rays would have considered promoting Wong more seriously."
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#377992) #
Mandy Bell @MandyBell02
Never seen that before. Trevor Bauer gave up two runs and chucked the ball into the netting behind home plate out of anger after the play. Terry Francona then came out to get him and before he left, he launched the ball over the center field wall from the mound.

Can't be good for his trade value.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#377993) #
Hmm shoeless my impression was that gurriel had Grichuk beat on the speed and athleticism but if there's some evidence otherwise that changes things.

Gerry - Myers counts as an A-ball project maybe? Maybe Linares turns into one of he's having TJ?
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#377995) #
Sorry, mr.phelps. my bad.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#377996) #
I am in favour of changing the narrative for today. Another 10-9 comeback victory would be boring.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#377997) #
Baseball savant has Grichuk with a 28.1 ft/second sprint speed and Gurriel with 27.6 ft/second. Not that I guess that means much Brito and Teoscar are burnings by that metrics but not much in the middle of the outfield.
Eephus - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#377998) #
Geez I went out for a walk after the 6th and just got back. What happened?

Oh... right.


Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#377999) #
I agree that the likely return for Sogard will be minimal- but letís wait. If it is, I will ask what is the point?
grjas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#378000) #
Not often pitchers give up 10 runs in 9 innings when also throwing 17 SOís.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#378001) #
They needed Sogard's spot for Bichette.
Let's see, the Twins just got Sergio Romo for a pitcher at the end of their top 30 and possibly somebody else later...
Boston got Cashner for 2 Dominicans kids who would still be in high school.

Realistically, the Jays might get a bullpen prospect with one good pitch, somebody that Tampa didn't want to protect in the Rule V draft or a prospect in A ball. That kind of return.

It's worth getting a ship load of guys like this now and figuring out what the do with them later.
It's a reward for Sogard who potentially gets to play in October which means extra money for him.
Also, just helping the Rays win and taking something out of their system are also small victories.

Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#378003) #
Stroman going to Mets apparently. Very strange. Letís see what comes next.
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#378004) #
Mets donít have a good system. They have some good youngish players though. Who knows? Maybe Edwin Diaz to be flipped somewhere for pre arranged prospects Jays like better?
Marc Hulet - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#378005) #
There are no enviable prospects in the Mets system so I hope it's Edwin Diaz to flip elsewhere... but I question how the Jays front office can't get a good prospect return for Stroman...
Gerry - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#378006) #
Bichette and SRF pulled from the Bisons game.
finch - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#378007) #
If the return is Diaz, I imagine they would package him in a deal with Giles for top prospects. Those are the 2 best RPs on the market at the moment. Gavin Lux from the Dodgers plus Keibert Ruiz?
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#378008) #
Why canít the Mets get good young prospects for Diaz? Theyíre looking for the same things the Jays are.
Thomas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#378009) #
Mark Feisand of MLB.com is reporting the return is "pitching prospects".

Who is that going to be? Kay and Woods Richardson?
Thomas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#378010) #
If this is accurate, this doesn't look good. The Mets don't have any pitching prospects considered to be Top 100 prospects (I stand to be corrected by Marc).
hypobole - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#378011) #
Ronny Mauricio is on the rise and #28 per FG Top Prospects list. On the other hand, both he and Gimenez (#51) are SS's.
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#378012) #
If it is pitching prospects and there isn't a 3rd team involved, then this could potentially be really bad. The Mets farm is not very good.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#378013) #
I would take Thomas Szapucki (injury prone) as part of the deal along with Simeon Woods-Richardson - I think Szapucki if healthy will be a fast mover.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#378014) #
I don't get hung up about top 100 list - it's what the FO & their scouting staff like - only time will tell.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#378015) #
The Mets have zero Top 100 pitching prospects. Zero. Simeon Woods-Richardson is the only interesting arm.

The Jays failed to acquire a top 30, 50, 75 or even 100 prospect, if reports are true. And could have kept working on a deal for 3 days... I don't get it.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#378016) #
Scott - if the point of trading Sogard was just to open a spot for Bichette then it really was Galvis that they should have moved. More importantly, the FO clearly think super utility players are valuable (theyíve tried to turn half the current roster into utility players) -Sogard was someone who appears to be able to do it successfully (plus heís LH and can get on base - both useful to the current roster). If they got a useful return then ok but if they just gave him away to open a roster spot then I wonít see the point. Sogard isnít likely to be a huge asset going forward but he could be a useful bench player for this team over the next year or two.
PeterG - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#378017) #
#BlueJays getting Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson for Stroman, sources tell The Athletic.
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#378018) #
Sogard is 33 and a free agent after the year and Ashly having the best season of his career, of course you trade him.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#378019) #
Sogard will be a FA and based on his play this year and Jays having BO/Cavan , I'd expect another team to offer Sogard a better opportunity.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#378020) #
Itís not of course to me. Iíd have tried to sign him.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#378021) #
This is quite confusing. Maybe they are going for quantity.
The Mets have a pitcher named Kevin Smith in AA. That would be a confusing piece to get.


uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#378022) #
Funny deal for me.

SMR is my kind of prospect.

Kay is not.

Dissappointing deal for sure though.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#378023) #
Sogard has put up 2.5 WAR in the past three years over 700 PAs even accounting for his horrific 2018. That seems like a useful player to have around.
Glevin - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#378024) #
Deal definitely feels light and my biggest issue here is...why not wit a couple of days and maybe somebody caves. If this is the best you get, ok, make the deal, but this isnít a return you nee d to jump on by any means,
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#378025) #
Some weird stuff going on in the clubhouse apparently.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#378026) #
The Jays should never have settled for that return three days before the trade deadline.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#378027) #
If Sogard was 23, you would extend him, but he's 33.
Once the core has arrived and starts producing, you don't need vets to be role players.
Drury and Urena are the utility guys next year.

uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#378028) #
Yelling in the clubhouse? Duncan fired?

Or is this BS?
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#378029) #
Yeah. Feels light. Maybe there's a 3rd piece?
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#378030) #
Sogard has been a significantly better player than Drury the past three years. Anyway, maybe the return will be ok.
PeterG - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#378031) #
Was likely far better than any other offers. How can one criticize when they don't know what is on the table. Very much doubt any other team willing to trade #4 and 6 prospects, both pitchers. After reading their summaries on BA and Pipeline, it looks like a good deal, and more than fair value, to me. Remember that Stro is not as highly regarded in baseball generally as he is here and does come with some baggage.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#378032) #
4 and 6 prospects from a poopy system is a bad return, any way you slice it.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#378033) #
Ok, I like Woods Richardson, and Kay is alright, but this does feel very damned light. Not the dumpster fire the Happ deal was, but at this point, I'm now joining the camp that doesn't let Atkins make any more deals.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#378034) #
Will note that Simeon Woods-Richardson numbers in A ball compares well with Syndergaard numbers when he was traded for Dickey and Woods I believe was over a year younger.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#378035) #
It's not great, but it's better than sending him to the Yankees for Clint Frazier.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#378036) #
Still got Hudson, Giles and possibly Smoak and Galvis.

Although, I don't mind having Galvis around for the rest of the year working with Bichette.


BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#378037) #
Feels light for 1.5 years of Stroman. But then again maybe this really was the best offer out there. Teams don't want to trade their really good prospects nowadays.

I would have tried to get an extension done.
PeterG - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#378038) #
Prospects Live has placed the newcomers at 4 and 7 in Jays system. Simeon is 4 and Anthony 7.
Gerry - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#378039) #
Giles was not ready to pitch today after throwing 10 pitches yesterday......might not get traded.
krose - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#378040) #
ERA FIP xFIP
SRF (23) AAA. 6.33 5.57 5.33
Kay (24) AAA. 6.61 6.23 6.20



uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#378041) #
Kay at 7 is silly.

But SWR in the top 5 isn't crazy.
krose - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#378042) #
Would have thought the Jays could have attained an excellent prospect closer to the majors.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#378043) #
The odds of the Jays getting another top 5 pick in the 2021 draft have gone up considerably today.
lexomatic - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#378044) #
I'm also not a fan of this deal.
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#378045) #
That is definitely a light return. The best part of the trade is by far SWR, who could rise up prospect rankings as early as next year if he keeps this performance up, but Kay as the main piece is very underwhelming. I just can't wrap my head around why they did this deal three days before the deadline. What was the rush?
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#378046) #
You never know with prospects who is going to be successful. One thing for sure, with the addition of Richardson, the Jays have a decent collection of power arms in their farm system.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#378047) #
I do have to admit that the more I look at SWR the more I like him. I don't agree with the 45fv on fangraphs at all.

He's the same age and level as Pardinho and putting up better numbers (with the caveat that Pardinho is coming back from injury and hopefully will end up with better numbers than he has now), and has 2 likely plus pitches. He'll need a 3rd pitch but apparently the changeup is coming along. He's putting up syndergaard level numbers in A, while being a year younger.

This is a guy who could be seen as a 55fv guy without too much squinting, imo, and really is my kind of prospect.

To be consistent, though, I can't get on board with Kay at all. He's not a real prospect, imo. might turn into a good reliever.
grjas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#378048) #
I wish they had just extended him. Seems like a lower risk than hoping these two will be front end starters in a few years.

At least we can watch Bo and pray Sanchez ups his value before the winter.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#378049) #
Kay has only 7 games in AAA but he was dominant in AA 1.49 ERA in 12 starts,
Strike out rate is down to 7.5/9. Walk rate has remained the same despite facing more batters.
He certainly does not walk guys like SRF does, but he's given up 7 HR in 31 innings, which isn't always predictive.
For the rest, he's giving up lots of hits on balls in play.

rpriske - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#378050) #
I don't see May as the main piece. This deal is all about whether SWR is the real deal or not.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#378051) #
scott i just can't get excited about a 24yr old doing well in AA, especially when he gets shelled immediately on promotion to AAA. All his previous years were middling at best, while old for the levels, too.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#378052) #
To those who are asking ďwhy this deal, three days ahead of the deadline?Ē One of the following must be true: the Jays felt they had to trade him at this trade deadline and thought this was going to be the best offer; or, the Mets met their asking price. Neither makes sense to me (why would they feel they had to trade him now?), but one of those must be true.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#378053) #
Kay is an option for next year. He might get a call up in September at the most.
I don't think he was on the Mets 40 roster.

He's a lefty with average control.
He has a high spin rate fastball which sits 92-94.
His best pitch when drafted was his changeup, that's an important pitch for a lefty because it works against right handed hitters.
His curveball is now a better pitch than his changeup, high spin rate here as well.

AAA is difficult for guys with high spin because of the juiced ball.
Because he throws a curve instead of a slider and because he has a plus changeup, he could work as a starter or a multi-inning reliever.

In the short term, Waguespack is getting it done and Pannone will replace Stroman.
SRF should replace Thorton.

scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#378054) #
Best case scenario, he turns into a Scott Down type after doing so-so in the back of the rotation.

AA gave up Syndergaard, d'Arnaud and a third piece for Dickie.
In the end Syndergaard became an ace after a couple of years, d'Arnaud couldn't stay healthy and the other piece didn't factor.
This could turn out as good without stretching the imagination.
There's both upside and something for next year.
I can live with that.

scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#378055) #
The return for Sogard is apparently 2 players to be named later.

Probably guys who needs to be protected in the fall.

rpriske - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#378056) #
Kay, obviously. Typo.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#378057) #
Most likely they really liked SWR. Kay is someone to audition for a role next year.

Pearson, Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Kloffenstein, ...

This could turn into a Cleveland type rotation with a bit of luck.

Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#378058) #
It's possible that the Mets plan to flip Stroman to a contender, but it seems more likely that they're planning to retool for 2020. I would assume that means Syndergard and Wheeler aren't going anywhere. Trevor Bauer, Brian Cashman is reluctantly turning his lonely eyes to you.

It's very possible that the offers from contenders for Stroman weren't as tempting as what the Jays received. (If the Mets do flip him, we'll have an idea.) But Stroman is a finesse pitcher who doesn't strike out all that many guys and that's the type of pitcher teams generally don't want to be counting on in the post-season (Stroman's own post-season history notwithstanding.)

As I said the other day, I wasn't very keen on counting on Stroman going forward so there was no better time for a trade than right now. As for Sogard - you found a 33 year old infielder with a 73 career OPS+ on the scrap heap and you were able to cash in on a four month hot streak and exchange him for something? That's free money.
scottt - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#378059) #
Yeah, I'm hoping Sogard help the Rays finish ahead of Boston.
grjas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#378060) #
This could turn into a Cleveland type rotation with a bit of luck.

May be, but two of them are 18 so that rotation is likely 4 to 5 years off.

In terms of Kayís age, he might have been old for each level but he lost all of 2017 due to TJ surgery. Some writers give him mid rotation potential with improvement in command and control so there is some hope.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#378061) #
I think this is a very weak deal, and I have completely lost faith in this front offices ability to make deals.
Mike D - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#378062) #
Over at The Ringer, their trade analysis says that this would have been an understandable package for Giles but puzzlingly low for Stroman.

By definition, five MLB front offices must be in the bottom five. And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them, probably for the first time since 1977.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#378063) #
2 Thumbs up for me - I see Woods in the same ballpark as Syndergaard when he was traded (and 1 year younger) and I like Kay as a potential backend starter - in fact I like Kay's potential better than Borucki or Pannone as a potential lefty in the rotation -Kay was drafted in 2016 but didn't pitch until 2018 because of TJS and other injuries, so I will cut him some slack on being old for his level.
Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#378064) #
The biggest blunder this front office has made when it comes to trades came when they waited too long to move a player (Josh Donaldson). I understand why it happened, but even so it's just human nature to be traumatized by that sort of thing.

I think there's a very good chance Stroman will be going through all this again a year from now. Does anyone out there think the Mets will be contenders next year? By then he'll be two months away from free agency and I can guarantee he won't be sporting an ERA of 2.96 this time next year. It's going to be closer to 4.96, even if he's pitching well (which is not something you can count on from year to year.) He needs a defense behind him, and he is not going to find that in New York.
Thomas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#378065) #
Oh, and the Jays are throwing in cash, too.

(Not that makes a lick of difference in any meaningful way, but the return is light, as it is.)

Jeff Blair has a piece up on Sportsnet about Stroman. I won't suggest you read it, because it's not very good. However, he makes a comment about the fans expecting an Archer-like package and being disappointed. The fact there's a middle ground between an Archer-like package, which nobody realistically expected, and this return seems lost on him.
Thomas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#378066) #
Also, where's my cuttlefish for predicting the return for Stroman correctly?
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#378067) #
BTW, a couple of weeks ago when Sanchez was really struggling, I mentioned that I was confident that Sanchez would rebound and have some quality years ahead and that the jays should try to buy low and extend him - well the last 2 starts have been encouraging, but sadly the moment to buy low may have passed.
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#378068) #
i'm not sure contract value fluctuates quite that quickly.
Nigel - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#378069) #
This isnít a terrible deal. Itís far more ďmehĒ than terrible. The biggest issue for me is that itís success is so dependent on a pitcher so far from the majors. A lot can happen to lottery ticket arms as they come through the minors.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#378070) #
When the Jays signed Sogard I mentioned that it was a nice under the radar signing, someone replied that Sogard's signing was so insignificant as to not warrant any discussion on this site - well Sogard on minimum salary managed to put up a 2 war season so far while being one of the more enjoyable players to watch this season and now he's bringing back the Jays 2 lottery picks - pretty nice.
grjas - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#378071) #
I still find it hard to believe that the best deal the Jays were going to get was From a fourth place team with a mediocre farm. It smells too much like the EE free agency...when EE and agent rejected their offer, they panicked and jumped too early on mediocre talent.

Why not wait till the 11th hour before cashing in the chips? They donít seem to have the stomach for it.
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#378072) #
It has been mentioned already, but Kay's age is misleading. He was drafted in 2016, missed all of 2017 with TJS, and then came back in 2018. He's 24 but only has about a year and a half of pro experience. There isn't a lot of mileage or sample size there despite the age.

This deal will come down to how SWR pans out. If the Jays got him pre-breakout, then the optics of the deal will change pretty drastically in the years to come.This is the first trade Atkins has made with a legitimately high upside talent coming back. In that sense I like it better than had he focused entirely on "near-term" like he has in almost all of his other trades.
dan gordon - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#378073) #
I think the Stroman deal is pretty good. Kay is only in his 2nd year of pro ball and he's already in AAA. Not too many pitchers do that. He was totally dominant in AA earlier this year, allowing only 38 hits in 66 innings. There's an article at CBS Sports that says he's a low risk prospect, who should become a #4 type starter. I don't really like those kind of limiting evaluations, but that's the way most people do it. Woods Richardson looks like an excellent prospect. His K/BB ratio is superb at 123/21, about 6 to 1. That's a better ratio than Nate Pearson has. K/BB ratio is one of my favourite evaluative stats for pitching prospects. Plus, he was one of the youngest players in the 2018 draft class, he's still just 18. The CBS article says that Kay and SWR are in a group with Pardinho as the 2-4 ranked pitching prospects in the Jays' system, after Pearson.


I expected the Jays could get something good for Sogard. He played at about a 3.8 WAR pace in 2017 and is doing so again this year, after being hurt most of last year. He's a much better player than people realize. Leave it to a smart organization like the Rays to acquire him. I would hope that at least one of the PTBNL is a decent prospect, and perhaps the reason they have not been named yet is that the Rays may have use for them this year as possible call ups, and don't want to give them up until after the season is over, in case they have injuries on the big league roster, and need replacements.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#378074) #
You are right Nigel but by the time star level pitching prospects reach AA/AAA, teams are very unlikely to trade them - who's the last near ready star pitching prospect that was traded - maybe Giolito ?
uglyone - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#378075) #
interesting to compare Kay to fellow 2016 1st rounder Zeuch, who also went through injury. Zeuch's 4 and a half months younger.

MILB

Zeuch: 297.1ip, 17.5k%, 7.0bb%, ~60gb%, 3.63era, 3.87fip, ~3.70xfip
Kay: 220.1ip, 23.5k%, 8.9bb%, ~38gb%, 3.76era, 3.71fip, 4.12xfip
Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#378077) #
Cuttlefish komodo large.jpg
Magpie - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#378078) #
I hope you appreciate that! My HTML skills are non-existent at this point. That was hard, man!
Spifficus - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#378079) #
That cuttlefish is the best part of the trade.
Lefty - Sunday, July 28 2019 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#378080) #
For me it's hard to understand how the Mets beat the Yankee's on this trade, unless the Yankee's already have a deal sorted.
Gerry - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#378081) #
Shi Davidi says that in return for Sogard, the Jays will pick from a group of four lower level pitching prospects.
dan gordon - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#378082) #
From the Rays' short season A team (same level as Vancouver), I'd be interested in Zack Trageton, maybe Rodolpho Sanchez or Edisson Gonzalez. On the A ball team there are a few former #1 draft picks, like Michael Liberatore, who obviously won't be included, Joe Ryan, who had a breakout season, and has been moved to advanced A and done well, so won't be included. Maybe Michael Plassmeyer, but he was a 4th round pick last year and has pitched very well. How about Caleb Sampen or Alan Strong?
Glevin - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#378083) #
MLB Pipeline has Kay #5 and SRW #7 on the Jays new list. I think the Jays like SRW a lot more than Kay and I do as well. He's looking great as an 18 YO in A Ball (Same age and level as Pardinho). Kay has a pretty good floor as a lefty and he's definitely ahead of Zeuch because he can strike out guys (96K in 97 IP this year vs. 28 K in 41 IP for Zeuch). Still think return is light but can also see thus trade working out. I think the Jays are fine with their pitching prospects now in that they don't need to specifically target pitchers.
scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#378085) #
The Rays have lots of young guys with plusplus fastballs who are probably going to end up in the pen.
I said I'd take a couple of those guys for Glavis and that hold true for Sogard.

scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#378086) #
Teams who want to acquire a starter or 2 might have to make room on their 40 roster.
If they wait at the last minute to make a trade, like the one that send a pitcher to make room for Sogard, they might end up losing the guy on  waivers for nothing.

The Dodgers acquired Negron from Seattle right after the Jays dealt Sogard.
Lesser player, minor return.

For every player to be potentially moved, each team has a list of best offers and counter offers.
It's guessing the Jays wanted pitching and were offered some top 100 position players instead.

Garcia from the Yankees has struggled just like Kay--in 3 games instead of 7--and he's also a guy with a high spin rate fastball. His catcher has talked about needed time to figure out the ball they use in AAA/MLB.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#378087) #
There was an interview on BA where Kay says he has had some trouble with the AAA/MLB baseball since he was promoted. His spin rates and profile compares perhaps to a lefty Trent Thorton.

SWR is clearly the bigger prize, but he is still a long way away from the majors. His prospect value is likely just ahead of Adam Kloffenstein. He does have serious breakout potential.

I just think that this trade seems a little light on value, and the Jays should have held out a few more days for a little more.
Mike Green - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#378088) #
My thoughts on yesterday's moves:

1.  I wish Marcus Stroman and Eric Sogard well with their new teams.  Fine dedicated players, the both of them.  Always welcome back.
2.  I have no comment on the return for Sogard until the players are announced.
3.  Kay has struggled in triple A, and it's extremely likely that Stroman will be a better pitcher than him in 2020.  More on competitive windows below.
4.  I have no idea about SRW.  The only thing I will say is that the Sally League is a step below the Midwest League, and comparisons between his performance and those of Syndegaard/Sanchez/Pardinho need to be adjusted.
5.  I share the consensus that the return for Stroman was less than expected, and that the process was sub-optimal.
6.  I am delighted with the arrival of Bo Bichette. 

This is not how I would have proceeded if the club had the budget that it ought to (given market size and the young talent on hand).  I am reluctant to lay too much at the door of the GM though, as I am not convinced that the problem originates there or with ownership. If the budget is too low, I can see why Atkins/Shapiro might stick with value and asset accumulation in 2020.  It is still possible for the club to compete in 2020 if they switch gears in the off-season, but yesterday's moves obviously make that much less likely. 

I may be more willing to give the GM a break than some because of the success of Bichette, Pearson and Groshans (to date).  The latter two seemed to me to be dubious choices, but they have done well.  It may indeed be that the organization knows more about SRW than the industry. 



Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#378089) #
Mike further to your comment about wishing Marcus the best, I am excited to see him in NL where he will get the chance to hit.
ayjackson - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#378091) #
Assessment seems fairly consistent across the board that it was a bit light. It doesn't do anything to give me any more confidence in he who shall not be concatenated in the front office.

But Kay seems like a servicable arm with some upside and SWR looks like a potentially exciting prospect.
grjas - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#378093) #
I'm actually skeptical that they can truly compete for at least three or four years given their pitching situation. Other than Pearson, I'm doubtful any of the pitchers close to the majors can be top 3 on a contender; so we're stuck waiting till the younger prodigies climb the system and get a year or two at the MLB level under their belt. I hope I'm wrong- we all know how quickly the fortunes of young pitchers (e.g SRF, AK) can change- but I'm not counting on it.  I suppose they could grab a top end pitcher in the FA market in a year or two, but why would one want to come to a rebuilding team in a "foreign land"?
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#378095) #
Kay seems to fit in with our fake-rebuild mid 20s group of marginal talents.

SWR seems to fit in with our real-rebuild group of 17-22yr old higher end talents that might turn us into a contender in 3-5yrs.

It just bothers me that we traded most of our assets to add to the older fake-rebuild group, when we could have targeted exclusively the real-rebuild type prospects and just spent money on vets in the interim.
Gerry - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#378097) #
I agree with Mike Green.

I have been trying to gather my thoughts on this deal. I guess the heart of it is that I am not as high on Stroman as others and I can see why the Jays traded him. While he has pitched really well this season, a ground ball pitcher like him will ride the wave of BABIP with a good season followed by a bad one. I think his messing with the timing of his delivery, while effective, shows how close to the good/not so good line he is.

I still think the return was light but I am not totally surprised. Teams are much more reluctant to trade prospects than they used to be. That has made most returns underwhelming for these types of trades. We don't know what else was on offer. I was nervous about acquiring Deivy Garcia from the Yankees. As others have noted the Yankees hype machine cranks up around this time every year and players get overvalued. Plus his physicals, like Stroman, are a cause for concern.

Some have said the Jays should have waited until the last minute. That didn't work lst season and I think the Jays might have been scarred by that and taken what they could before Stroman's next start.

The rotation is now like a tryout camp for the major leagues. Expect a lot of Bichette hype to divert attention away from the mound.

uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#378099) #
Blue Jays Career (Qualified)

ERA

1.Clemens 2.33
2.Halladay 3.39
3.Key 3.39
4.Stieb 3.42
5.Alexander 3.61
6.Stroman 3.71

ERA-

1.Clemens 50
2.Halladay 73
3.Stieb 82
4.Key 82
5.Alexander 86
6.Stroman 87

FIP

1.Clemens 2.44
2.Halladay 3.43
3.Stroman 3.61
4.Key 3.67
5.Morrow 3.71

FIP-

1.Clemens 54
2.Halladay 76
3.Stroman 84
4.Burnett 86
5.Guzman 88



MLB Last 6yrs (i.e. since Stro's rookie year)

87era- (T-#32 of 192 qualified SP)
84fip- (T-#19 of 192 qualified SP)
84xfip- (T-#20 of 192 qualified SP)

This season

64era- (T-#12 of 153 SP IP leaders)
77fip- (T-#24 of 153 SP IP leaders)
88xfip- (T-#39 of 153 SP IP leaders)
PeterG - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#378100) #
Updated Fangraphs prospect list for Jays have new guys at 5 and 6. For comparison, they have Pardhino at 9.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=tor
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#378102) #
"Updated Fangraphs prospect list for Jays have new guys at 5 and 6."

I won't be too surprised when those ranks suddenly change by the end of the year after a month or two in blue.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#378104) #
I think Pardinho is better than either of those two prospects.
jerjapan - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#378107) #
I think the entire Stroman situation has to be viewed as disappointing.  It seems pretty clear that late in the game talk by the FO of an extension was strictly for the sake of trade leverage, but the tactic does not seem to have worked.  Worse still, it seems a cynical and transparent move.

I don't know why the 'we don't know what else was offered' narrative is so persistent with those more sympathetic to management.  While this is true, what we do know is that the majority of Bauxites feel the deal was light, and the majority of (all?) journalists seem to range from 'fair' to 'light' in their assessments of our return. 

We also know that the relationship between the FO and Stroman was strained.  I have long thought the best leaders are willing to accept the responsibility to 'be the bigger person'.  According to Gregor Chisolm in the Star today 'there is plenty of blame to go around' for the conflict, but it does appear that their second arbitration hearing lead to hurt feelings, and that is on the FO.  While they may gain a few hundred thousand in savings with this approach, they have created a conflict with the team's veteran leader that could not have helped their leverage in trading him.  Even if they feel a need to act from a tough negotiating position, the responsibility remains with them to address the conflict and attempt to find a resolution.  They have the power, not Stroman.  They decide where he is traded to, when he starts, the direction of the team - they control everything about his work environment - his only leverage is via the media, so I have no problem with his public positions. 

Was he somehow a toxic presence?  It's interesting that these sorts of narratives are only really put forward in moments like this - if he was a problem, would that not have been obvious to diehard fans like ourselves who follow the team's every move?  The falling out between Stro and Sanchez gives me pause, but not enough to change my belief that Stro was a genuine character player and leader - given how well liked he was by fans and teammates alike.  The only journalist I'm aware of who had problems with him is Rosie DiManno, which makes me like him more, not less ...
Another thing we do know is that the FO continues to appear tone deaf and indifferent to the fanbase.  I have previously suggested that they seem determined to distance the team from the AA days - the only successful days this fan base has enjoyed in decades.  Nothing since that post has happened to change my opinion. 

We don't know if Atkins is bad at his job - he certainly has lead the team that has had numerous successes in drafting and IFAs, but in terms of the on-field product - trading, FAs and coaching - we have a spotty record.  Morales was the biggest FA and was a total bust.  Many of the scrap-heap FAs have been solid pickups.  The jury is still out on the coaching staff, but the 're-assigning' of Shelley Duncan less than a year into his job is a bad look.  Montoyo has been less than hoped for.  On the aggregate, I'd say the successes outweigh the failures, but Atkins appears to have a clear weakness.

The trades have not been successful on the whole, even with arguably the best trade chip on the market in Stroman.   Of course, time will tell, and perhaps we have been acquiring undervalued assets who will surpass expectations.  But I do find it interesting that the best deal Atkins could get was with the Mets - and another GM that has a poor record with trading.
Perhaps part of the reason Atkins wasn't getting better trade offers is because shrewd GMs know Atkins track record, and know that he had painted himself into a corner with Stroman?  If the GMs looking for an SP upgrade believed there was a legitimate chance that Atkins might extend Stroman, perhaps the offers are better?
I know the likely defense of the FO is that rebuilding is painful - sure, obviously.  Equally obvious is the fact that some people are better at their job, and aspects of their job, than others, and our current FO is poor at trading and engaging the fan base. 


Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#378108) #
Wherever you would rank Kloffenstein in the system is where I would have SWR and wherever you would have SRF is where I would have Kaye. For me, that would put the new prospects around 8 or 9 and 14 or 15.
PeterG - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#378109) #
Wondering why then, Fangraphs and others have them much higher?

A note from former GM Steve Phillips on TSN says that Shapiro and Atkins are viewed totally differently in the baseball world than they are in Toronto.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#378111) #
Because prospect watching is subjective and Iím just a guy who watches a lot of minor league baseball and not a scout. Itís great that youíre a huge fan of the deal. I just donít think either of them is better than Bichette, Pearson, Moreno, Groshans, Kirk, Manoah or Pardinho. I suspect that thereís a wide range of views of whether SWR is better than some of those names. I honestly canít see much of an argument for Kaye being better than any of them plus a few others. Thatís just me.
bpoz - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#378114) #
We have 2 free spots on the 40 man roster now.

I am interested in seeing how Atkins uses these 2 and any other spots opening.

I mentioned a day or so ago that S Brito was doing well in Buffalo. I see that as a positive for Brito but probably still valueless.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#378116) #
"We also know that the relationship between the FO and Stroman was strained."

trying to make this as non-snarky as possible.....but honest question, when is the last ex-jay that didn't have a strained relationship with this FO?
PeterG - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#378117) #
I believe there is only one free spot on 40 man roster. Two were freed up but one is going to Bichette.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#378118) #
I don't have any issue with SWR being ranked on par or ahead of Pardinho. And I think he has to be slotted ahead of Kloff at this point too. 18yr old killing it in full season ball is a pretty big deal, especially when it seems like he has 2 plus or potential plus pitches already.

I just can't buy that Kay ranking. It's been 2yrs since his injury so hoping for some radical improvement seems implausible to me. He's an older guy without any great pitches who has mediocre milb numbers overall and is struggling horribly in AAA. If we've knocked SRF down out of our top-10 because of his performance this year, Kay can't make it either.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#378121) #
I would rank the 18 year old pitching group as Pardinho, SWR, Kloffenstein and then Williams. It is interesting that is also how they rank from shortest to tallest. In a year from now that pitching group might be something we have not seen since Thor, Sanchez and Nicolino were in Lansing.
bpoz - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#378122) #
Thanks PeterG about Bichette.

I never cared about farm rankings. Many are graduating from our top 10 which has driven us down. The addition of Kay and SWR potentially improves our farm rankings. We could be up 3-4 rankings.
PeterG - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#378124) #
BNS says that Jays are talking with Atlanta about Biagini.
jerjapan - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#378126) #
A note from former GM Steve Phillips on TSN says that Shapiro and Atkins are viewed totally differently in the baseball world than they are in Toronto.
Peter G, I'd be interested to hear those views separately - Shapiro has a reputation that long precedes Atkins', and Atkins is likely the one whose reputation is suffering more right now.
We have an apparent feud with at least on FO - Atlanta - and I can't remember a feud between our FO and another org in, uhh .... I guess 'shouldergate'? 

Feuding with other orgs looks bad on our FO, as does our strained relationship with ex-Jays from the AA era, as Ugly delicately noted above. 

Bob Nightengale quoted an unnamed exec on the trade: ďWhat a steal by the Mets. Unreal!íí  So that exec likely has a poor view of our FO.
I think we are past the point at which criticisms of the FO can be dismissed as 'sour grapes' from a fan base that was elated with back-to-back playoff runs, or where critiques of their trading acumen can be dismissed as not understanding the market. 




bpoz - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#378130) #
With the AAA/ML ball being juiced we can expect bad AAA pitching is what people may be trying to say.

I am not aware of the good results of this ball.

Currently it has affected A Sanchez a lot it seems. Kay also is having difficulty with this as is the NYY prized prospect D Garcia.

So I guess certain type of pitchers are made better and other types are made worse by the new ball.

I will have to add more patience in my pitching prospect evaluations.
pooks137 - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#378131) #

trying to make this as non-snarky as possible.....but honest question, when is the last ex-jay that didn't have a strained relationship with this FO?

John Axford re-signed with the team this spring after being traded at the deadline.

I don't remember much drama when JA Happ was dealt last year. JA Happ also returned to the team for a second tour, although the first was under different management

christaylor - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#378132) #
Happ?

At any rate, I think might be getting the causality wrong, but I don't know, of course... but from Pillar's comments about the 2015/2016 teams, it wasn't as if the clubhouse (and by extension with the FO) was hunky-dory.

Also, why wouldn't a tear-down in and of itself *not* strained relations with departing players? The rebuild was started at least two seasons too late. Tulo, Martin, heck even the 2018 version of Donaldson were all deadwood. That's got to bruise the ego, even if never said explicitly.
PeterG - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#378133) #
I agree that we might have to look at them separately. Shapiro is one of the most respected execs in MLB no matter what anyone here might think. Atkins still has to prove himself somewaht and I would assess his performance here as mixed.

The problem to me with the assessment of many trades by posters here and media in TO, is that Jays players being traded are often overvalued by the faithful. Stroman is one and Happ another. There have been some minor mistakes as all GM's make. The only one I think was major was not trading Donaldson earlier but that may have been an ownership call.

As Joe Siddall said this morning, these are the things that you do in a rebuild.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#378135) #
rebuilding is painful

It surely can be, but what would we know about that? Seriously. It's been forty years since this franchise lost 100 games, and in those forty years they lost 90 games once. Can you imagine this fanbase having to endure what Cubs or Astros fans have endured within the last decade? Year after year after year of... this.
scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#378137) #
It's not that the ball is juiced.
The ball is harder, the seams are not the same.
Pitchers are struggling to grip the ball to get the same results and they might start getting blisters for the first time in their career.

scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#378139) #
Kay doesn't walk as many as SRF does.
He's 24, that's not old for AAA.
The rest of the rotation in Syracuse with 7 starts or more is 36, 31, 31, 29, 29, 27, 25, 25 and 24.



scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#378144) #
Bautista wasn't happy to come back even though nobody else wanted to pay him.
Last year, he was playing for peanuts compared  to that QO equivalent the Jays signed him to only because they knew there was no chance for them to get a draft pick.
Had EE taken that 4/80 offer, the only difference would have been worse draft picks down the line and no Pearson.
Estrada would have stayed.
Shoemaker and Phelps seem quite happy here. Giles is almost in bliss.

Extensions to Bautista and Donaldson would have been crippling.
Signing Galvis and releasing Tulo? That was absolutely the right thing to do.
Sanchez can't be the happiest guy around, but it has probably nothing to do with the front office.


scottt - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#378145) #
I don't think there is a feud with Atlanta.
I think the current front office sees AA as someone who will overpay in prospects to get the player he wants. So they ask for players accordingly.

It's a little different  with division rivals. It's OK to trade them rentals, but otherwise you have to set the bar higher.

Finally, this is the first year of the single trade deadline. I think many teams will stand pat and have regrets later. It's a bit of a mob mentality.

Mylegacy - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#378151) #
Anthony Kay is 24. He's 2.3 years younger than the "Ave Age" for the IL.

His last year at Connecticut, in the AAC, was 2016 - his age 21 year.

He missed all of 2017, his age 22 year, vacationing with his friend Tommy John.

His Age 23 year was 2018 and his "2 Teams" stats show: 122.2 IP, 124 H, 49 BB, 123 SO, 1.410 Whip, 9.1 H9, 0.5 HR9, 3.6 BB9 and 9.0 SO9.

His age 24 year he was on two teams and has pitched 7 games in the IL with Jay's Old Friend Syracuse. He is on record as being concerned about, and having complained about, the ball there.

This is a problem he'll have to tackle and overcome.

However, since we all know lefties are insane - I'm my hopes that he'll use his insanity to discover an insane way to overcome the difference in the ball.

Anthony, welcome to the Batter's Box. I'm sure we'll find new and unique ways to abuse and misuse you over the next few years as you grow into what you, and we, hope you might become.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#378153) #
It doesn't do anything to give me any more confidence in he who shall not be concatenated in the front office.
In before Dewey: I think you mean contracted, not concatenated. Concatenated would be Shapiroatkins or Atkinsshapiro.
However, the abbreviation still stands: HWSNBC. Although possibly, we need the pronoun they instead: THEY who shall not be contracted: TWSNBC.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#378154) #
By definition, five MLB front offices must be in the bottom five. And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them, probably for the first time since 1977.

Depends on your criteria, doesn't it? I'm sure Roger's execs would rank TWSNBC much better than AA at responding to every request with "Yes, sir! Right away, sir!".
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#378157) #
And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them

Maybe. But who the hell knows? Let's see - Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Angels, Mets, Cincinnati, San Diego. Which four of those are better than the Toronto group?
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#378161) #
Today's chat

Joe: Top 5 most dysfunctional franchises?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Rockies, Marlins, Royals, Mets, Angels

Not there yet per Dan.

Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#378163) #
Surely thatís a list that Baltimore has to be on? In fact, Iíd sort of assumed that they were in a dysfunctional league of their own.
Mike Green - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#378165) #
Nice idea for a sequel, Nigel.  "A Dysfunctional League of Their Own". 
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#378166) #
Baltimore "Under New Management" Orioles seem to be moving in the right direction from what I've read.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#378167) #
Just what this division needs.
Paul D - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#378168) #
Small quibble, but Donaldson is still awesome, extending him would not have crippled the team.
ayjackson - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#378172) #
Thanks, vw. Sorry Dewey. You'd think there'd be a better term than contracted though.
grjas - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#378181) #
Conjoined?
Dewey - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#378189) #
jerjapan

I enjoyed your thoughtful post on Stroman today. Didnít enjoy your messing up (twice) the past tense of ďleadĒ again. (Itís ďledĒ.) Weíve had this one before. You donít want to take that one into the classroom.

One of the burdens of age is that fewer and fewer (not ďlessĒ) people listen to you. Their loss.

Cheers.
jerjapan - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#378201) #
Thanks Dewey, I thought I'd taken my time with that one!  I can't imagine missing 'led' again, now that I've been reminded more than once.
BTW, the students definitely enjoy it when I tell them about this older baseball fan I know online who still takes the time to correct my mistakes ...


eldarion - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#378226) #
Chiming in a little late but I'm happy with the Stroman deal. SWR's numbers are elite. I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise. Yes, the Sally League is a step down from the Midwest League but SWR is 18 years old - one of the youngest players in his draft class. He'll end the year in Dunedin, which is outstanding for an 18 year old prospect. He could, potentially, make the big league roster by 20 or 21 years of age; that's a terrific prospect. Is there risk? Sure. But his strikeout rate is amazing and he's a big, strong kid. Those are the ones you bet on.

And as for Kay? A 24 year old lefthander that throws 92-94? Sign me up. Yes, he's getting smacked around a bit at Triple A but it's 30 innings, people. Relax. He may not be a star but he'll probably be useful...and the Jays will have him for at least six more seasons.

This trade is perfectly fine. What were people expecting? Stroman doesn't have the gaudy strikeout totals over which GM's salivate. He's having an excellent year and we parlayed him into two decent prospects. What do I care that they aren't on any prospect lists? Neither is Alejandro Kirk and it baffles me because that kid's numbers are outstanding. Prospect lists aren't everything.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#378251) #
Found this from ex-BP writer Gideon Turk at Fangraph's Hardball Times discussing his time writing and breaking news about the Jays, his pipeline to the inner workings of the FO and the ramifications.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/breaking-the-news/
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#378254) #
I've seen somewhere that Kay was hit hard in his first AAA games but had been improving.

It's going to be interesting to see what he does in Buffalo.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#378255) #
Improving is relative, I guess.

Gm1: 11.25era, 5.39fip
Gm2: 36.00era, 6.64fip
Gm3: 4.50era, 6.39fip
Gm4: 7.20era, 9.04fip
Gm5: 1.59era, 5.41fip
Gm6: 4.50era, 6.31fip
Gm7: 6.35era, 4.88fip
bpoz - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#378256) #
I expect him to take a few days to adjust. Hopefully we will see improvement then.
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