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It's the Texas Rangers, tonight, tomorrow, and Wednesday afternoon. And that means a few familiar faces.

Alas, Adrian Beltre is not one of them. Don't we all miss him? I know I do. But we should see shortstop Elvis Andrus, whom Jays fans will always remember fondly for his troubled seventh inning in Game 5. There's Nomar Mazara, who looked so promising as a 21 year old rookie back in 2015, but hasn't taken even a tiny step forward since and whose four major league seasons are eerily similar.† There's veteran outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who's 37 years old now, but more than holding his own and presumably still stretching out his arm between pitches. And there's Rougned Odor, whom we remember for his 2016 sucker punch. Rough Ned, who is still just† 25 years old, is a strange player having a strange season. He's been sort of hot for the last three weeks and has finally cleared the Mendoza Line. The Stinky One is still hitting just .205, but he has 20 HRs and leads the Rangers in RBIs.

There's also veteran catcher Jeff Mathis, and in case you're wondering - yes. He still has that mysterious quality that makes him Jeff Mathis. He's caught almost exactly half the innings for the Texas pitchers this year, who have worked to a 4.00 ERA with 560 K and 181 BB in 538.1 innings. With the other catchers, the staff has a 5.77 ERA, and a K-W of 443/228 in 500.2 innings. The old Mathis Magic? On the one hand, he has caught most of the innings worked by Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, who are far and away Texas' best pitchers. On the other hand, Minor's been around for a while and his 2.92 ERA in 148 IP† with Mathis is significantly better than his results working with Robinson Chirinos (3.81), Evan Gattis (3.94), and Brian McCann (4.01). And Lynn's been around even longer, has a 3.27 ERA in 113 IP with Mathis, which is slightly better than his work with Yadier Molina (3.37) and a bit better than with Tony Cruz (3.77). And both are pitching half their games in Arlington this year, which still increases offense by about 18%. Nevertheless, I predict Mathis does not catch Lynn's Tuesday start - I expect they'll save him for Wednesday afternoon when the 21 year old rookie, Kolby Allard, makes his third major league start. Mathis caught his Texas debut last week. And even a rookie manager like Chris Woodward wouldn't ask a 36 year old catcher to catch Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. That would be cruel, and unusual.

We remember Woodward, of course. He was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 54th round in 1994, after 1,437 other names had been called. I think it's safe to say that not much was expected. But from there Woodward went on to play 659 games over 12 seasons in the majors. While he was mostly a utility infielder he was also the nearest thing to a regular shortstop the 2002-3 Blue Jays had. He played for four other teams, and spent time in another three organizations before ending his playing career (in the Blue Jays system, playing for Las Vegas.) He went into coaching with Seattle and spent the last three years as the Dodgers' third base coach.

Woodward replaces Jeff Banister. The Rangers managed to win the AL West twice under Banister, but both times it was a little weird. The 2015 team outscored the opposition by just 18 runs, but posted an 88-74 record anyway. That's just ordinary good luck, random enough, but the kind of thing that lands on somebody each year. It was good enough for first place in 2015 mostly because Houston lost 29 of 50 one-run games and went just 86-76 despite outscoring their opponents by more than 100 runs. So the Rangers got even stranger. In 2016, they went an unfathomable 36-11 in one-run games. That, needless to say, never happens. Except this one time, when it did. It gave what was basically a .500 team (they scored 765, they allowed 757) what I'm pretty sure was the flukiest 95-67 record in human history. Their luck ran out in 2017, as it was bound to do, and they took a serious step backward in 2018. Accordingly, Banister walked the plank last September. (Which reminds me - I just watched the whole first season of Black Sails and no one has walked the plank. Or been keel-hauled. And I haven't seen a single parrot. I think I want my money back.)

The Jays will trot out an Opener tonight. Neil Ramirez will make his first appearance as a Blue Jay, his first start in the major leagues, and his first start anywhere since 2013. Texas drafted him out of high school in the first round back in 2007, and he toiled away as a starter in their system for six years before going to the Cubs late in 2013 in the Matt Garza trade. He had a fine rookie year in the Chicago bullpen in 2014, but he's been scuffling ever since. He's got a big power arm but he will walk people and sometimes the ball doesn't stay in the park. He will get you some strikeouts.

At the moment, the Jays still have 14 pitchers on the active roster, which is silly. Billy McKinney is here, wandering the clubhouse like a ghost. Ken Giles played catch yesterday and felt better, so he didn't go on the IL But Giles hasn't pitched in 5 days and his wife is back in Arizona ready to give birth to their second child any day now. I'd sure give him the week off. He's going to end up being away from the team anyway.

Free Billy McKinney? Hmm, maybe not.

Matchups? Why not.

Mon 12 Aug - Jurado (6-7, 4.74) vs Ramirez (0-1, 5.40)
Tue 13 Aug -† Lynn (14-7, 3.60) vs Pannone (2-5, 6.83)
Wed 14 Aug - Allard (0-0, 4.15) vs Reid-Foley (2-2, 2.36)

Allard, of course, is the 21 year old southpaw drafted by Atlanta in the first round back in 2015. The Rangers extracted him from the Braves in exchange for two months of Chris Martin, who I had been led to believe was a sensitive singer/songwriter. Allard went 6-4, 2.72 in AAA a year ago, but either took a step back this year or was simply surprised by the baseballs this season (7-5, 4.17).

Texas at Toronto, 12-14 August | 192 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#379625) #
You can carry 12 or 13 position players this year. Maybe 14 if you like next year. I think.

Montoyo seems to not have a traditional bench. Everyone is getting enough playing time it seems. The disadvantage is no defense specialist or strict utility player like Goins.

Also a Pillar type with strong defense but poor offense is possibly not preferred for this team.

hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#379626) #
There were some dire predictions by some earlier this year. 100 losses. Top 3 draft pick.

Both FG and 538 project 4 100 loss teams, but those would be Detroit, Baltimore, KC and Miami. Both systems project the Jays finishing 67-95, and picking either 5th or 6th, with Seattle losing 95 or 96 (we get the better pick in a tie break).

Although both think the Pirates will finish ahead of us, the Pirates are doing their best to disagree, losing 24 of 28. Putting the schedules aside, 538 rates the Jays as better than 7 teams, the 6 I mentioned and the White Sox as well.
rpriske - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#379627) #
Shi Davidi is reporting that the Reds have claimed Freddy Galvis off waivers.
Vulg - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#379628) #

Taking a quick look, he's clocking in at ~2 WAR for the season per bbref. Hard to imagine he couldn't garner at least a low-tier prospect from a club. Especially given his glove, it's difficult to accept that Galvis had reached Kendrys levels, where it's a straight up win just to get rid of the contract ...

Another head scratcher.
Gerry - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#379629) #
The Jays save money this year. They could have exercised Galvis' option for next year but he might not have been happy in a backup role.

This creates even more payroll flexibility, the Jays have so much payroll flexibility they don't know what to do with it.

I wonder if the bonus plan for Shapiro and Atkins pays out based on wins or profits? Given its Rogers, I would assume the profits play a big role.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#379630) #
disappointing that a good glove SS that's been around league average with the bat for at least the last calendar year couldn't get anything at the deadline. seems like a guy that every contender could use. also weird that they didn't try to trade him still, now or in the offseason, give his year of control.

Kinda want them to put smoak on waivers too now. though maybe they did and nobody claimed him.
Glevin - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#379631) #
I think pretty easy to understand. Jays weren't going to pick up option and wanted to free up playing time for other guys they wanted to get a look at. They tried to trade Galvis at deadline and probably saw there was nothing there so they just moved on.
Gerry - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#379632) #
Under the new rules, the Jays were unable to trade Galvis and so they could not get anything back after July 31.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#379633) #
"the Jays have so much payroll flexibility they don't know what to do with it."

does this move mean we're only down to 41 years of control now?
DH - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#379634) #
I doubt Galvis was keen to be a backup next year and I doubt the Jays wanted to pay $5.5 for a backup SS. Save a few dollars and let him play for something. Seems a win-win.
Jevant - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#379635) #
If this means that Montoyo is forced to stop DHing Galvis, I am 100% okay with it.

Opens up a spot for anyone with a possibility of being a long-term piece to get at bats every day (I'm most interested in making sure each of Teoscar/Gurriel/Fisher/Grichuk get at-bats the rest of the way, and this allows you to rotate one through each day).
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#379636) #
actually Gerry they could have traded him even now i believe, he just wouldn't have been able to play in the playoffs for his new team.

correct me if i'm wrong.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#379637) #
You're wrong.

For your edification:
Glevin - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#379638) #
The fact that not a single AL Team claimed him on waivers shows that there was very likely no market for giving up anything for Galvis. Anyway, he gets to go somewhere and play regularly and the Jays get to give ABs to youngsters.
SK in NJ - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#379639) #
I was disappointed that Galvis was still on the team after the deadline, so this is good news to me. I'm sure he did not want to be a backup after starting his whole career, so this was likely a combination of cost saving, doing a veteran a favor, and giving the manager no choice other than to play the younger talent. During the last two months of a development season, using the DH spot to fit Galvis into the lineup everyday was counter productive and it did not look like Montoyo was going to stop doing it. This move eliminates that option entirely.

I'm sure the Jays tried to trade Galvis before the deadline, but the irony here is that the extra year of control (which teams covet nowadays) might have been the reason he didn't have value. The team acquiring him would either have to pay him $1 million to go away, or $5.5 million in a market where similar players get minor league deals (see Jose Iglesias). That extra year of control is not as team friendly as it might appear to be. If he didn't have that option, maybe he would have been moved at the deadline.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#379640) #
So controlled position players next year (last calendar year wRC+ in brackets):

OF Gurriel 26 (112)
OF Grichuk 28 (98)
OF Teoscar 27 (93)
3B Vladdy 21 (113)
SS Bichette 22 (197)
2B Biggio 25 (92)
1B McKinney 25 (91)
DH Tellez 25 (96)
C Jansen 25 (79)

UT Drury 27 (76)
OF Fisher 26 (75)
IF Urena 24 (82)
C McGuire 25 (124)

X - OF Alford 25 (-100), OF Pompey 27 (n/a), OF Brito 27 (14), C Maile 28 (40), OF Davis 28 (9), 2B Travis 29 (50)

after that there's the current AA kids - Smith, Adams, Palacios, Wall - but they all likely need plenty of AAA time before hoping to challenge for a big league spot.
Glevin - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#379641) #
I think it's pretty clear that Montoyo will play everyone on the roster. He likes rotating as much as any manager I've ever seen. That means it's up to the front office to not keep guys around that are going to take away PAs from potentially useful players.
DH - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#379642) #
As for Smoak, if Voit had needed surgery I would have thought the Yanks lined up as a potential claimant. Giving him a chance to get back to the playoffs would be the right thing to do.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#379643) #
thx for that sweet, sweet edification, hypo!

bpoz - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#379645) #
How much was he getting paid this year. $3.5-5 mil?
rpriske - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#379646) #
Wilner floated an idea that maybe when Galvis signed - knowing full well that Bichette and Biggio were on the way - that the Jays gave him a  verbal agreement that they make sure he kept getting to play. That would make both the DH time and this waiver trip once they couldn't trade him make perfect sense.
rpriske - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#379647) #
Now, who gets called up? McKinney leaves them a little short on the infield. Urena?
AWeb - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#379649) #
Galvis having no value in a trade is a weird situation for a sports league to find itself in. Galvis is a better SS than anything the Giants, Brewers, or Pirates have, who have all been fringe playoff contenders this year (I mean, not the Pirates now, but they were a month ago). I really hope the Reds strategy from the past year, which seems to be to go ahead and try to be good right away, even without an obvious "window", pays off (it might have this year if the entire offense didn't disappear). MLB needs more teams who actually want average-ish players to make a team better. You can't dream on Freddy Galvis, but you can certainly win games with him in your lineup, at least the past few years.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#379650) #
i noticed the last couple weeks they've been hitting Urena up in the lineup in the 3 and 4 spots after spending most of the year at the bottom of the lineup. I took it as a sign of confidence in him (hit hitting, while improved lately, still isn't where you want to see it though).
Gerry - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#379651) #
McKinney was in the clubhouse yesterday but not added to the roster. He could be added today then Urena called up for a reliever when we get to Thursdays rest day.
bpoz - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#379652) #
I find it refreshing that we have different points of view. I am influenced my many of our posters as well as the write up for each thread.

Galvis did not break the bank. Instead I find that he was worth more than he was getting paid. I think we have enough middle IFs in Bichette, Biggio and Drury. Who plays SS if Bichette gets a day off? Urena would be called up for SS IMO, other wise keep him down until Sept to play in AAA everyday even though I think he has passed that stage.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#379653) #
I don't know what promises the club made to Galvis when he signed.  It may be that they promised they would deal him if they couldn't keep him as a full-time shortstop.  Aside from that, it's a dead loss for the organization.  Galvis would be a valuable player next year to this club.  Even if they keep VGJ, Bichette and Biggio at their respective positions, Galvis would get 400-500 PAs as a 3B/SS/2B and be worth more than 5.5M. 
rpriske - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#379657) #
I disagree strongly. Saving $5.5M next year that should be spent on pitching is important.

Having a player who believes that they should be starting, playing caddy to some hot rookies is bad all around.

hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#379660) #
Galvis next year would be OK if they get rid of Drury. But Drury's best position is 3rd and he's OK at 2nd, plus there's Urena who should get a shot next year.
Vulg - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#379661) #
I don't know what promises the club made to Galvis when he signed. It may be that they promised they would deal him if they couldn't keep him as a full-time shortstop. Aside from that, it's a dead loss for the organization. Galvis would be a valuable player next year to this club. Even if they keep VGJ, Bichette and Biggio at their respective positions, Galvis would get 400-500 PAs as a 3B/SS/2B and be worth more than 5.5M.

Yeah even the most conservative $$ per WAR estimates should indicate that Galvis has real value on a roster. The $1M club option for 2020 is not onerous. It's just surprising he ended up being a pure salary dump.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#379662) #
The fact that not a single AL Team claimed him on waivers shows

I thought they changed the waiver claim process as well. I don't think it goes by league anymore. I also thought that if a player is put on waivers after July 31 and goes unclaimed, he must be given his unconditional release. Those waivers can't be revoked. But I'm not too sure about all this. I'm too old a dog for some of these new tricks.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#379665) #
I think (but not sure) Magpie is correct.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#379666) #
It is especially weird to not be able to get anything for Galvis.  The Blue Jays knew that Bichette would be coming up, and that Galvis' playing time would be affected.  Bichette was out with an injury until June 7.  He hit very well upon his return. 
Surely some team had need of a shortstop between June 21 and July 31. 

I suspect that the club wanted to wait until Bichette arrived to see how he looked at the major league level, and thought that they could do better right at the deadline.  If that was what they thought, they were pretty clearly wrong about that. 
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#379668) #
It may be that they promised they would deal him if they couldn't keep him as a full-time shortstop.

Something like that. They both knew kids were coming, they just couldn't be sure when they would arrive. The team did right by Joe Smith a year ago.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#379669) #
Surely some team had need of a shortstop between June 21 and July 31.

Milwaukee, certainly. They're still in need of a shortstop. But they probably wanted money along with Galvis in exchange for a bag of baseballs.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#379670) #
If it's not league-based waiver priority, then that would mean that the Reds were maybe #10 in the waiver line, and maybe the first team with any sort of connection to a playoff race?
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#379671) #
I would think Galvis play 2b in Cincinnati, bumping Jose Peraza to a utility role.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#379673) #
It's a bizarre world where Daniel Hudson is tradeable and Freddy Galvis is not. 

Tampa would capitalize on this kind of market inefficiency stat if they didn't have roughly a gazillion options behind Adames.   If they ever moved to a better market, they would end up with a dynasty.  It looks like they have Erik Neander, Chaim Bloom and James Click all actively involved after Friedman left, and together they seem to have replicated his brilliance. 
ayjackson - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#379674) #
My guess is they wanted to trade Galvis and bring up Bichette. There were no takers and they brought up Bichette regardless, while keeping Galvis sharp at the plate at least. Bichette having performed as he has gave them the confidence to waive Galvis. I also suspect they had verbal assurances from the Reds or other interested teams...or his agent did...that he'd be claimed.

No real reason to give this FO the benefit of the doubt, but I will here. I think it's a giod move.

John Northey - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#379679) #
I can't help but wonder if the Jays have a handshake deal behind the scenes with the Reds on a couple of minor leaguers to do a tiny upgrade on the non-40 man roster to cover this 'deal'. Not enough to trigger alarm bells but something. A D level prospect for a C or something.

There is always a way around rules if a team is determined enough.

Lets hope Smoak goes next. I suspect Tellez is down until September, but boy does he deserve ML playing time right now with how he is hitting - 366/450/688 so far in AAA, last 10 games 436/476/769. Yikes!
Doom Service - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#379680) #

This file on the MLBPA site seems to indicate (Page 80/81) that claims are awarded to lower rated teams, regardless of league. Leagues are used as a tie-breaker if two teams with the same record claim the same player.

rpriske - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#379682) #
It is official - it is Billy McKinney back.

So, if they need a SS, who plays? Biggio with Drury at 2nd?

PeterG - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#379683) #
Drury would play SS if necessary. As someone mentioned previously, Urena will likely be brought up after the 20 breakless games conclude Wednesday with a pitcher being sent down.
jerjapan - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#379685) #
I get the playing time argument, and I do hope that this move has been done with the goal of doing right by Galvis, which is a good reason to take a loss for the team.
The FO continues to talk about leadership, and by all accounts, Galvis was the sort of character guy we want. 

But that said, Mike Green is correct, this guy has value for us this year and next on the field, in a variety of possible roles.  Had we shopped him at the deadline with his contract / bonus paid, we could certainly have gotten something in return.  On the surface, it looks like another poor move. 
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#379686) #
Hypobole, why should Richard Urena get a chance?  He hasn't hit at all in Buffalo in a hitter-friendly environment. 
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#379687) #
I can't help but wonder if the Jays have a handshake deal behind the scenes with the Reds

Hard to see, mainly because nine other teams had to pass on Galvis before Cincinnati had a chance to take him.

I don't know if what we've seen will be Montoyo's way going forward, when the games will matter a little bit more (we all devoutly hope!) But for now his everybody-plays! approach makes a certain amount of sense. Normally I wouldn't want a young guy like Urena to come up and just sit around and watch. But I think Montoyo will get him into games. That's always easier to do when half your roster consists of pitchers, of course.
dan gordon - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#379688) #
I was surprised to hear that they couldn't get anything for Galvis at the deadline, although there are a LOT of good SS's in the big leagues these days. Given that, I guess it makes sense to waive him. I wouldn't want him taking 400-500 AB's from Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio next season, I wouldn't want him DH'ing, and I wouldn't want to pay $5.5 million for a backup SS who's not going to be happy in that role.

Would rather have seen them call up Tellez instead of McKinney. If that means Smoak sits most days, so be it. I want to see if the Tellez resurgence in AAA is for real. Every day they wait is one less day in the end of year sample size to evaluate him.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#379689) #
It seems awfully strange to deal Galvis, have Drury play first base and bring up Urena instead of Tellez.  Rewarding failure and regression rather than growth in players.  Maybe they've put Smoak on waivers too and nobody has claimed him.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#379690) #
Dan, Montoyo seems set on having VGJ play 125 games, and a significant number of those at DH.  Bichette and Biggio will get some time off, and odds are that one of the three will spend time on the DL.  If you have a manager who is going to give players like these three 150-155 games per year, then yes, it would be hard to have Galvis around.  That isn't Montoyo. 
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#379691) #
And on a different note, the 2020 schedule has been released.
dan gordon - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#379693) #
Mike, I agree that Montoyo likes to use the whole roster, but I think the probability of Guerrero only playing 125 games next year is highly unlikely, unless he gets injured of course. He's probably going to be one of the better hitters in the game next year, and giving him 37 random days off just doesn't make sense, especially if the team is within striking distance of a wild card spot. If Guerrero can only play 125 games a year at his age, there's something seriously wrong.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#379694) #
I assumed Mike means 125 games this year. (If Vlad plays in every game remaining, he ends up at 129.)
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#379695) #
Hypobole, why should Richard Urena get a chance? He hasn't hit at all in Buffalo in a hitter-friendly environment.

Urena has a better OPS vs RHP's in Buffalo than Bo did. Bo butchered LHP's and Urena got butchered by LHP's.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#379696) #
VGJ has started 70% of the team's games at third base since he was called up.  At that pace, there are 50 starts available at third base alone, even allowing for good health. 
Chuck - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#379697) #
It seems awfully strange to deal Galvis

I think both Sogard and Galvis forced their departures by playing too well. Montoyo was not going to NOT play them, so they had to go. At this point, Guerrero/Bichette/Biggio can get a lot less rest as befitting men of their youth.

Smoak is the next to go, freeing up playing time for Tellez. However, an unceremonial dumping might not be a fitting end for someone who has acquitted himself well so he may be around for the duration.

Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#379698) #
Smoak is the next to go, freeing up playing time for Tellez.

I also don't think they'll just dump Smoak either. Unless he actually requests it. I expect him to be here for the duration and play less and less once September rolls around and Tellez comes back up. A dignified exit.
ayjackson - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#379699) #
Difficult to follow the logic of this FO, but I'd guess that Smoak is (a) about to be put on waivers, (b) on waivers now, or (c) was on and cleared.
scottt - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#379701) #
So, Galvis was put on release waivers, which are non-revocable, and he got picked.
Otherwise he would have been released and the Jays would have been on the hook for most of his salary anyway.
Sounds right?

I know they tried to move Smoak and Galvis,
They did get a couple of arms for Sogard.
Teams are pretty uptight with their assets right now.

Perhaps competing teams figured they could acquired depth pieces just by picking up released players in August.
The Mets getting Stroman was a weird play. The Happ trade with the Yankees was very disappointing, so I think that's much better. I see the Reds as picking up Galvis for next year. When you get a player who is making what he's worth on the free agent market, there's no reason to send anything back, unless if a move before the deadline.

Smoak makes 8M. Maybe he clears waivers and gets released and only then finds a spot somewhere.

Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#379703) #
If Smoak clears waivers, the new waiver rules say the Jays have to release him. It's the Law!
dan gordon - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#379704) #
Magpie; Mike and I were talking about next year. He was saying that they should have kept Galvis around, and that he would get 400-500 AB's subbing for Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio. I'm saying I don't see that as reasonable. As the team becomes better, they're going to be playing their star players a lot more. Now, if they intend to DH Vladdy a fair bit, then it's a different story. Then they need a decent 2nd guy to play 3rd base for 50 games as Mike suggests, and it would be great if that guy could also sub for 2B/SS in an emergency. Galvis could be a good fit for that role, if he would be content doing that. Maybe they talked to him about that and he said no. If you DH Vladdy, though, you weaken your offense, because then you have to take a guy like Tellez or Hernandez or Fisher out of the lineup, assuming the "normal" everybody healthy lineup has Tellez and Hernandez at 1B/DH and Fisher in CF.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#379705) #
Galvis is still just 29 years old. I don't imagine he's thinking of himself as a savvy veteran bench guy just yet. He wants to play every day or as close to it as he can get. And at this precise moment, on this team - he's just in the way. The Jays need to see if Guerrero, Bichette, and Biggio can handle the positions they're currently assigned to. (Two out of three would be wonderful, but I think Vlad's a DH in three years, tops. Prove me wrong, kid!)
ayjackson - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#379710) #
Yeah....$8m likely too big a pill too swallow? Tough to be Smoaky and know that nobody in the league wants you.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#379712) #
Less than 2 million salary remaining for Smoak this year.
Nigel - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#379714) #
As someone who suggested on the day after the trade deadline that they should just release Galvis, I think this makes sense (unless they made him the semi regular 3B). But I am surprised they couldnít get a C prospect for him at the deadline given that next year is a team option.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#379715) #
I don't think these guys are going to lose 100 games. They might not lose 90.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#379716) #
pounding the rangers is always fun, especially with Odor still there.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#379717) #
Dan Szymborski said something today I thought has not been said enough. "Our opinions on a player should never be carved in stone."
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#379718) #
Bo has his double. Why don't both teams call it a night?
pubster - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#379719) #
So do you guys think Drury is for real?

How long can this pitching keep going?
Spifficus - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#379721) #
I can't get over Bichette's ability to wait back with his upper half, and really punish breaking balls to the opposite field. Between him, and Vlad's ability to hit the ball harder than anybody and Biggio's ability to zero in on a zone the size of a postage stamp, the rest of the year should be really really fun to watch.
jerjapan - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#379722) #
This offense is exciting to see.  Drury strikes me as a useful guy to have on a team, as long as he's not a starter.  His career OPS of .733 is what I see going forward for him, and a career year in the next few is not out of the question.  He's arb eligible and wont be expensive, plus he still has an option.

I heard Atkins on the radio talking about the release of Galvis, and it sounds like they were involving him in the decision.  If that's the case, I'm okay with the move. 
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#379723) #
Don't forget Gurriel Jr. The BGs are going to score plenty, and I am fond of the "beat the opponent into submission" theory of team-building.
Spifficus - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#379724) #
The only reason I left Gurriel out was because he's less freakish than the other three (apart from the awesome hair). Also, Hernandez is starting to look like a good #6 hitter in the making. His at bats just look so different now. Add to that Jansen looking quite hitterish over the past few months and Drury and Grichuk signs of life, and you can squint and see The Next Championship Lineup rounding into form. We'll see how things develop over the next year and a half, but there's definitely something there.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#379725) #
Gurriel isn't completely out of the woods yet I don't think.

Before 2nd Down: 44pa, 40wrc+
Called Back up: 157pa, 191wrc+
But since then: 120pa, 76wrc+

he obviously made an adjustment, but it seems they adjusted back.

His power is the big question - he really needs that elite power production to keep that line looking sexy.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#379727) #
Well, geez. Mathis came into the game 0-1, 6.75 as a pitcher (yes - he was the losing pitcher once) but his career ERA goes to 9.00 after that.

He's no Edwin Jackson.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#379729) #
So now I'm wondering - which position player has the most career pitching appearances? Mathis is up to 5, I'm sure there are guys with more. Especially in the Other League.
Spifficus - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#379730) #

With Gurriel, the main thing at play is his patience. If you look at a wOBA vs O-Swing% rolling graph, it's pretty clear that when he gets hacky his bat gets slacky. It looked like he was starting to reset his hacktacular ways right before his injury. If that's the case and the pattern holds, I think he'll be fine. Of course, it'll be better to see it than assume it, but that's what the next year and a half are about.

hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#379731) #
Mathis is up to 5, I'm sure there are guys with more.

Lots of guys a hundred years ago. There's Ankiel and Ohtani. But over the past 30-40 years the guy with the most I could find was Chis Gimenez with 11, including 6 times in 2017 alone.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#379732) #
Big swings in 100-200 PA isn't odd for any player. The big question is can Gurriel keep adjusting and being a solid ML Left Fielder? He needs to have at least a 110 OPS+ out there to be useful. We'll see how he finishes 2019 whenever he comes back. However, a guy who in his 2nd ML season has a 130 OPS+ at age 25 you have to feel good about.

In 2020 we'll hopefully see the kids do well.

For 2019 so far (before tonights wow game) the teams sOPS+ (OPS+ vs league at a position) saw over 100 (IE: above average) at LF/SS/2B (2B thanks to ex-Jays Glavis & Sogard). CF is at 96, 80's at 1B/3B/DH, 69 at CA (Maile's 25 is a killer over 120 PA, vs Jansen 82 and McGuire 110), 54 in RF (Billy McKinney the big drag at 51 over 102 PA).

On the surface RF is a disaster, as is CA but in reality RF will be better (Grichuk should do better than a 69 next year), and CA is righting itself by removing Maile.

The offense here is not the issue. Pitching, pitching, pitching. The only reason to get more hitters is if an amazing deal falls into Atkins lap that no sane GM would say no to (Tatis for Maile for example, not that I think that would happen in a million years).
John Northey - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#379734) #
For AL rookie of the year how are the Jays doing?

Brandon Lowe #1 with 3.5 WAR (262/334/500 at 2B for Tampa)
Yordan Alvarez #2 with 2.4 WAR (355/431/733 in just 43 games at DH for Houston)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #3 with 1.7 WAR (274/346/459 at 3B)
Danny Jansen #4 with 1.5 WAR (214/294/376 at CA - who knew?)
Oscar Mercado is #5 with 1.4 WAR (277/325/443 in CF for Cleveland)
Bo Bichette is #8 with 0.9 WAR (367/424/717 at SS)
Cavan Biggio is #9 with 0.9 WAR (205/333/373 at 2B)
Reese McGwire is #17 with 0.6 WAR (276/300/552 at CA)
Billy McKinney is down a lot more at 0.2 WAR (230/289/434 in LF/RF)

John Means is #1 at 3.2 WAR for Baltimore (8-7 3.69 ERA in 105 IP with 87 K's)
Spencer Turnbull is #2 at 2.2 WAR for Detroit (3-12 3.99 ERA in 124 IP with 113 K's)
Justin Shafer is down a bit with 1.0 WAR
Trent Thornton is down further with 0.7 WAR
Jacob Waguespack has 0.6 WAR
Sean Reid-Foley is at 0.4 WAR
Thomas Pannone is at 0.1 WAR

So I doubt a pitcher will get rookie of the year as they normally need to super-outperform the hitters to make it. I'd say Vlad has a good shot at it thanks to the HR derby (which isn't supposed to count, but will be an influence in a tight race) but the favorite right now has to be Yordan Alvarez doing amazing with the bat for a contender although his pure DH (7 games in LF with -0.2 dWAR) status will hurt him. Brandon Lowe is currently on the IL and barely qualifies as a rookie (129 AB's last year, 130 is the cut off) which might hurt him with a voter or two.

Net WAR for the Jays of 5.8 for hitters, 2.8 for pitcher, 8.6 total which has to be one of the highest totals (not counting the negative kids) for the Jays in years. Of course, no one will approach the Jays rookie record of 7.3 for Mark Eichhorn in 1986 (157 IP with a 1.72 ERA in relief will do that), Hinske had a 4.0 as a rookie to win the award, Alfredo Griffin in 1979 had a 2.0 to win it as well. Stieb was just 1.4, Halladay 2.6 for those curious.
Michael - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 03:53 AM EDT (#379736) #
Bichette is 8th best rookie after only about 2 weeks. If he were to keep up the rate stats from his first ~2 weeks for the rest of the year (roughly 3-4 times as long left) he wins ROY in a landslide.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#379739) #
Brandon Drury has continued to cut his strikeouts as the season has gone on, and in the last month or so he is having a really hot stretch. In the 28 games since the start of July he has a .298/.324/.583 slash line. However even at his best his walk rate is too low and his power levels seems unsustainable. His xWOBA for the season has him a bit closer to league average than his actual production, and he still might make for an ok back-up infielder.
Jevant - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#379746) #
Is that the most ridiculous HR pimping of 2019 by Odor...or the most ridiculous pimping of all time?

17-3 and you are walking around like that with your shirt unbuttoned to your waist and walking around like you own the place? Yowza. I'd be embarrassed if I was a Rangers fan.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#379748) #
I thought it was hilarious, because he looked absolutely stupid. If it had meaning? Sure, I have no issues with someone getting caught up in the emotions of a situation. Given that it brought them to within 14? I just wanted to laugh in his face at his tough guy routine.
James W - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#379749) #
Stevie Wilkerson has already pitched 4 games this season for the Orioles, including notching a save.
scottt - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#379751) #
Well, Odor gets booed at every AB in the RC, so it's easy for him to stay in character.
Jevant - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#379753) #
Oh, I agree it was absolutely hilarious. More of a "can you believe this guy? haha" moment for me.

You be you, Rougie.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#379754) #

1. SS Bichette (21): 209wrc+, 8.1war650 (.468babip)
2. LF Gurriel (25): 127wrc+, 3.9war650
3. 3B Guerrero (20): 115wrc+, 1.1war650
4. CF Hernandez (26): 94wrc+, 1.7war650
5. 2B Biggio (24): 93wrc+, 1.2war650
6. RF Grichuk (27): 89wrc+, 1.1war650
7. DH Fisher (25): 85wrc+, 0.7war650
8. 1B Tellez (24): 82wrc+, -0.7war650
9. C Jansen (24): 73wrc+, 3.1war650 (.237babip)

UT Drury (26): 78wrc+, 0.6war650
OF McKinney (24): 77wrc+, -0.6war650
IF Urena (23): 54wrc+, 0.0war650 (.370babip)
C McGuire (24): 97wrc+, 7.2war650

(1B Smoak (32): 106wrc+, 0.8war650)

Last Calendar Year:

1. SS Bichette (21): 209wrc+, 8.1war650 (.468babip)
2. LF Gurriel (25): 111wrc+, 2.4war650
3. 3B Guerrero (20): 115wrc+, 1.1war650
4. RF Grichuk (27): 102wrc+, 2.0war650
5. 1B Tellez (24): 96wrc+, 0.2war650
6. CF Hernandez (26): 93wrc+, 1.0war650
7. 2B Biggio (24): 93wrc+, 1.2war650
8. DH McKinney (24): 91wrc+, 0.0war650
9. C Jansen (24): 83wrc+, 3.8war650 (.245babip)

UT Drury (26): 78wrc+, 0.6war650
OF Fisher (25): 81wrc+, 0.7war650
IF Urena (23): 85wrc+, 1.5war650 (.413babip)
C McGuire (24): 124wrc+, 7.6war650

(1B Smoak (32): 102wrc+, 0.5war650)

Fangraphs' Rest of Season Projection:

1. SS Bichette (21): 99wrc+, 2.7war650
2. 3B Guerrero (20): 123wrc+, 3.3war650
3. RF Grichuk (27): 101wrc+, 2.3war650
4. LF Gurriel (25): 96wrc+, 1.1war650
5. 1B Tellez (24): 92wrc+, 0.0war650
6. C Jansen (24): 92wrc+, 3.5war650
7. CF Hernandez (26): 92wrc+, 1.5war650
8. DH Fisher (25): 90wrc+, 0.6war650
9. 2B Biggio (24): 87wrc+, 1.3war650

UT Drury (26): 82wrc+, 0.6war650
OF McKinney (24): 87wrc+, 0.0war650
IF Urena (23): 57wrc+, 0.0war650
C McGuire (24): 73wrc+, 2.3war650

(1B Smoak (32): 110wrc+, 1.7war650)
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#379755) #
This club wasn't much to watch until Babe and Honus arrived.
pubster - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#379759) #

Drury's Monthly Splits:

Month   OPS     K%
March	0.647	35.29%
April	0.716	34.83%
May	0.596	23.08%
June	0.416	27.59%
July	0.838	18.84%
August	1.052	15.63%

bpoz - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#379775) #
Our ML catchers Maile and Jansen have 400 ABs. 111 Maile, 288 Jansen.I think McGuire and Jansen get another 150 catcher ABs combined. I prorate Jansen to 17 Hr over 450 ABs. So pretty good offense from the catcher position. All 3 are good enough defensively. We have excellent depth in case 1 has an injury.
jerjapan - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#379780) #
The other team whose rookies have hit the ground running would be the Dodgers.  Immediate success for Will Smith and Dustin May feels almost unfair after Verdugo's successful season and with Gavin Lux on deck for September.  The rich get richer, although out of the wealthy top tier of teams, I like the Dodgers far more than the Yanks or Sox. 

Gerry - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#379784) #
Buchholz pitched three innings today in the GCL. If he pitches 4 innings on the 18th and five on the 23rd, he would be ready for activation by the 28th. He is more likely to be activated on Sept 1.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#379785) #
Orelvis with a pair of double to start his day as well, the farm system has a lot of talent in short season to restock the system looking to 2020.
PeterG - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#379786) #
I would not give Buchholz a 40 man spot, even for September. I would rather have more of a look at pitchers that may be kept beyond this season.
PeterG - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#379802) #
Rowdy Tellez is in the Jays clubhouse. Roster move tba.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#379803) #
The timing is a bit strange.  Tellez isn't in the starting lineup (so far at least), tomorrow afternoon a lefty is starting and then there's a day off.  Nonetheless, I'm glad Rowdy is back. 
Cracka - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#379804) #
Maybe Giles is finally going on the IL or on Pat leave.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#379805) #
Brock Stewart optioned.
PeterG - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#379806) #
In addition, Charlie said that Godley will get next bulk pitching assignment. He also said Tellez will get more AB's than Smoak.
dan gordon - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#379807) #
Good to see Tellez called up. They need to see if the recent hitting in Buffalo is for real. Buchholz is an interesting case. He's a free agent after this year and needs to show that he can still pitch. I would be surprised if the Jays didn't activate him when he's ready. You treat your veterans badly, it just makes it harder to attract players. They could easily move Pannone back to the bullpen and use Thornton, Waguespack, SRF, Godley and Buchholz in the rotation. Pannone is not really much of a starter candidate. He has an ERA over 10.00 as a starter this year. Might be a decent bullpen guy, though.
scottt - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#379808) #
Except for being a veteran, Buchholz hasn't done much to deserve a spot.

5 starts, 5 innings/starts with an ERA of 6.57.

The active roster is not a consideration, but to activate him they have to release someone else from the 40.
I'd be tempted to release Maile to give him a chance to find a job somewhere else though.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#379809) #
Disappointed that Wilmer Font is being used as only an opener - I'd like to see him stretched out and be given an opportunity to be a contender for a rotation spot next spring.
PeterG - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#379810) #
I am thinking that it would be better to take a better look at Godley, Kingham and Stewart than giving any innings to Buchholz. In addition, Zeuch needs to be added to 40 anyway, so why not for September as he could use some more innings having missed half of the season.
Cracka - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#379811) #
If Buchholz has a few good rehab starts, he might be claimed on waivers by a pitching-needy contender. Maybe he'd prefer getting 4-5 rehab starts with Toronto, but I could see the Red Sox or Yankees or maybe the Braves adding him as a depth starter/bullpen option for the playoff run. He makes ~$500k a month, so he's probably not going to get claimed by a non-contender. Though I'd have no worries if Maile was dropped -- McGuire is better at this point.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#379812) #
Pannone has been teed up a few times but is having a good night, he seems to be the type that really benefits from an opener. Overall though he has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this year. Can he show enough the rest of the season to save his spot for next season? Does he deserve a spot for next season?
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#379813) #
After the McKinney home run the Jays had a stat up that as a team they are 2nd in the MLB over the last 53 games in home runs. This offence just feels like it is in a good place moving forward.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#379814) #
Something went wrong with Gerrit Cole while warming up before tonight's game. Devenski starting in his place.
pubster - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#379819) #
Jays have only allowed 55 runs over their past 16 games.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#379821) #
The Staff With No Names.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#379822) #
Getting the day off tomorrow afternoon... McGuire (caught tonight), Smoak (old guy), and.... oh, Biggio (LH bat.)
hypobole - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#379823) #
Not long ago I thought there was zero chance Mike would win our bet. Still think I'll win, but it's certainly doesn't seem zero chance any more.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#379824) #
Looking at some FG stats prior to today's games.

Mike Leake (31) was the only pitcher to give up 30 HR's. Seattle played Detroit tonight, Kikuchi vs Matt Boyd. Kikuchi gave up 2, Boyd 4 and are now at 31 and 30.

And here's an even better ex-Jay bit. 459 pitchers have 20 IP this year. 458 of those 459 have given up at least 1 HR. The only one who has not given up a HR is Taylor Cole, in 37.2 IP with the Angels.
James W - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#379825) #
Was the bet .500 over the final 81 games, or after the all-star break? The former is currently 22-20, while the latter is... 17-15. OK, either way, they were 23 games under at both points in the season.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#379826) #
And Josh Bell just hit a 2 run shot off Taylor Cole.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#379827) #
Mike suggested the team could play .500 ball the 2nd half of the season, so half-way mark.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#379829) #
This is a pretty good looking ball club. 12-6 in their last 18 games. They hit a ton of HR's and are getting surprisingly good pitching. Quite possible they get 20+ HR's from every position on the field - 6 spots already over, 2B has 14, C has 15, 3B has 15. Team slash line in August is .279/.338/.560/.897. With the youth on the current roster, you would expect the hitting to be even better next year.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 02:34 AM EDT (#379830) #
With Tellez up we have our 2020 starting lineup here (age for 2020 in brackets)...
1B: Tellez (25)
2B: Biggio (25)
SS: Bichette (22)
3B: Vlad (21)
LF: Gurriel (IL) (26)
CF: Fisher (26)
RF: Grichuk (28)
CA: Jansen (25)

CA: McGuire (25)
OF: Hernandez (27)
UT: Drury (27)
IF: ??? (Urena (24)? Still in minors)

DH: rotation so Hernandez and Drury don't get bored. Whoever the utility IF is they will give Bo & Biggio days off.

No one over 28 and 5 starters who are 25 or less. That has to be one of the youngest teams the Jays have ever fielded (assuming no vets brought in and outside of backup middle infielder why would you bring one in). Even when they were building the great 80's teams the Jays never had a lineup without a 30+ guy in it (1983 & 84: Cliff Johnson, Ernie Whitt, Dave Collins, 1982: Whitt & Wayne Nordhagen, 1981: Mayberry & Velez). Doing a fast check of other potential years (mid 90's post WS & strike, mid 00's, early 10's) no sign of a team with just 2 who were over 30. This year only Smoak is over 30 and likely to be on the season starting 9 (based on games played at a position, who played it the most). Sogard had 43 games at 2B but Biggio was up to 49 before tonight. Glavis will lead at SS (over 100 games) but is 'just' 29.

For pitchers only Clayton Richard is one of the 'regulars' who is over 30 (10 starts, 35 years old) Pannone is at 6 starts, and 5 for Waguespack and SRF so any of those 3 could take over Richards' slot as I fully expect him to be released the moment he is off the IL.

Wow, 17 starting pitchers used this year. Nutty. In 2016 only 7 were used. How times change.
scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#379832) #
Font will be 30 next year and despite debuting in the majors at 22 will have just over 2 years of service time in April.

He's been a starter in the minors and the independent leagues, but he doesn't have the control to go over a lineup multiple times.

This year, he struggled as a middle reliever with the Rays and as a starter with the Mets. (He went 4 innings twice and got knocked out in the third in his other start.) It's only as an opener that he's been impressive with the Jays.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#379833) #
This team is night-and-day better than at the first of the year. In April and May especially, the hitters were flailing at so many pitches out of the strike zone. The no-name pitching staff is holding up surprisingly well and the young guys seem to be feeding off each others success.

What looked like a 100 plus loss season could end up in the low 90's.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#379834) #
Not only is the team playing well, but they are doing it with a bunch of low-wage workers. The team will have lots of payroll flexibility to enable them to add to the core in the coming seasons.
scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#379835) #
Objectively, the team has 2 star players in Guerrero and Bichette and the rest of the lineup are solid average players able to contribute to a .500 team. To compete they will need to have better than average pitching.

They are fun to watch right now, but at the same time they remind me of most of the 2000-2014 teams who always seems to have strong second halves once they were eliminated. I don't think the Mariners are coming to Toronto this weekend to win either.

In the meanwhile, the matchup today, is Reid-Foley  against the guy AA sent to Texas for Chris Martin.
Viva la Vida.

AWeb - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#379836) #
I don't think it can be overstated exactly how much payroll flexibility the Jays will have next year. From the likely starters next year John N posted above, Grichuk and Gurriel cost about $16 million in 2020, and assuming ~$700,000 for all the 2nd year guys, that entire roster of position players costs less than $25 million. Tulowitzki gets $14 million, so call it less than $40 million for position players.

They have even less than that committed to pitchers, with Giles being the "big money" guy. I have no idea how arbitration goes for him, but still less than Grichuk, that's for sure. The 2019 Jays already have the cheapest roster in MLB (, only counting the 25-man roster. The 2020 Jays have literally $100 million in salary space they could use and still end up around the 2016-17 versions of the team.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#379837) #
Certainly fun to watch a hot streak, but I'd still advise caution here. The team still does not project to be very good as is.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#379839) #
It surely is surprising that the pitching held up through 20 straight games.  How did Charlie Montoyo and Pete Walker do it?  Here's a chart with the innings pitched for the first two pitchers- I have inserted 3 breaks in the data (with explanation to follow:

Date Pitcher 1 and IP Pitcher 2 and IP Total IP
Jul 26 Waguespack 5 Shafer 0.2 5.2
Jul 27 Borucki 2 Gaviglio 3 5
Jul 28 Sanchez 5.2 Shafer 0.1 6
Jul 29 Pannone 6 Mayza 1 7
Jul 30 SRF 5 Font 2 7
Jul 31 Waguespack 6 Mayza 1 7
Aug 1 Thornton 6 Boshers 1 7
Aug 2 Font 2 Kingham 3 5
Aug 3 Pannone 6 Boshers 0 6
Aug 4 SRF 4 Diaz 0.2 4.2
Aug 5 Waguespack 6 Shafer 1.1 7.1
Aug 6 Thornton 3.2 Gaviglio 3.1 7
Aug 7 Font 2.1 Stewart 4 6.1
Aug 8 Pannone 2.1 Godley 3 5.1
Aug 9 SRF 5 Mayza 1.1 6.1
Aug 10 Font 2 Waguespack 3.2 5.2
Aug 11 Thornton 6 Gaviglio 3 9
Aug 12 Ramirez 1 Stewart 5.1 6.1
Aug 13 Font 2 Pannone 4 6

The first break occurs after Sanchez' last start.  Stroman's start was delayed shortly thereafter, and Montoyo/Walker would have been aware that it was likely that they would be having less reliable starters.  Fortunately, the July 29-31 games were in Kansas City, so they were able to go with a very conventional use of the starters they had.  The second break is after the July 31 game.  At that point, Montoyo and Walker knew what they had.  They used an almost conventional set-up for the August 1-5 games except for August 2.  I want to talk about the August 6 game.  That was the one where the Jays led 6-0 over Tampa after 3.  In the fourth inning, Thornton lost it and Montoyo kept him in through 3 2 run homers.  This was conventional usage (trying to give Thornton the opportunity to win), but they did send out Gaviglio for 3.1 shutout innings.  I suspect that they probably realized that it was a mistake to keep Thornton in after the second homer- just take your chances on Gaviglio for 4 innings at that point. 

Since that game, the usage has been quite different.  Font has been opening for 2 innings every 3 days and the starter has become "the main event".  It has worked very well.  Stewart and Godley have been shuffled in and out to take main event roles.  It looks like Thornton and Gaviglio have been paired (we'll see if that continues). 

It was a creative effort by Montoyo/Walker and very successful, with the two first pitchers cumulatively giving them enough innings that the middle and back end of the bullpen was not overtaxed despite Giles' elbow issues. 

It's a different situation after today's game.  There's a day off and then the opponents get very tough but the club has a total of 4 days off between August 15 and August 31.  It will be very interesting to see how they use the pitchers.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#379840) #
There is a danger that the decent pitching the Jays are receiving in this streak and especially if it continues for ROS, may give a false sense of security regarding the pitching staff for next season.
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#379842) #
So a quick look on fangraphs leaders since jul 1 has Teoscar Hernandez at 1.3 war and 17th in the ALSlightly below avg defense -0.5 positive baserunning. For the season hes been with 0.9. Will be curious if he can carry this pace, or close to it, for much longer. I'm curious if he can keep any of this with the K rate and after an adjustment from the league. This feels like the better version of his initial Jays appearance, which he has not been able to consistently do.
The pace is legit MVP (non Trout) level, but only 1/4 of a season worth.I would love to see if he can keep any of this performance while cutting the Ks.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#379843) #
The Ringer with a piece on Bo "Tiger Woods" Bichette.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#379844) #
The Jays ROS projections are on an upward trend. FG now has 69-93, 538 at 68-94. 538's ranking system, however is more bullish on the team, rating the Jays better than the 4 duds, but also the Mariners, White Sox, Pirates, Rangers and even the Padres.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#379845) #
And even if you take the over on those projections, you still end up with a not very good team.

but hell, looking at the yanks' lineup this year, who the hell even knows anything anymore?
Gerry - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#379846) #
Almost 50% of the starters in Mike Green's chart pitched less than 5 innings. Its surprising how well things have gone despite that.
pubster - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#379847) #
"Font has been opening for 2 innings every 3 days"

That pro-rates to something like 100ips for the season.

If he can do that with a 3ish ERA over the course of the season it would help the pitching out a lot.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#379848) #
Of course this club needs pitching.  They have precisely one above-average pitcher (Giles). 

At this point, Fangraphs projects that the club will play 18-21 for the remainder of the season (a .451 pace).  Given the youth of the club and the probable returns of Shoemaker and Borucki, I think they project at about .500 for 2020 before the season starts.  It's easy and cheap to grab a win or two in middle relief, but after that it's about getting a very good pitcher (or two) who can go 140-200 innings. 
John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#379849) #
Hmm. The Jays have done well lately.
ERA by Month...
April: 3.36 S: 3.16 R: 3.64
May: 5.66 S: 6.50 R: 4.76
June: 5.81 S: 6.88 R: 4.63
July: 4.44 S: 5.14 R: 3.73
August: 3.58 S: 3.91 R: 3.34

So relievers are on pace for the best month of the year right now. Starters are doing well, but not as good as April (Stroman & Shoemaker were both sub 2 for ERA over 11 starts combined and 66 IP, Sanchez 2.32 over his 6). For August Font has 4 starts 0 ER (8 1/3 IP), SRF 2 starts 9 IP 2 ER, Thornton has 3 starts (4.60 ERA but 15 2/3 IP, an iron man vs the rest of the starters), Pannone though is over 8 for ERA in his 12 1/3 IP (2 starts, 1 relief).

By IP we see...
10+: Thornton & Pannone (ERAs 4.60 and 8.03)
8-9: Waguespack, Stewart, SRF, Law, Font, Gaviglio (ERA's between 0 and 2.89)
5-7: Adam, Shafer (both sub 2 ERA), Boshers, Mayza (both 5+)
0-3: Kingman, Giles, Godley, Ramirez, Diaz (Ramirez & Kingman 0's, rest 6+)

Good job by the manager minimizing the damage outside of Pannone who had most of the damage in the game vs the Yankees (7 ER in 2 1/3 IP).

I'm not a fan of the opener idea but I do like tandem starts and the Jays seem to be headed there. Font with 4 starts in 12 days is a great example of it working. 2 innings at a time. 2 BB vs 12 K's in his 8 1/3 IP, just 3 hits. Sweet. Getting this from a guy with an 80 ERA+ lifetime suggests very smart usage. I'd see if he could handle a third inning sometime but if not then just be happy with 2 IP every 3 days.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#379850) #
The Jays hitting has improved since the beginning of the year.

Bichette has been incredible. I don't expect him to have this good results forever. I also think the kids are improving as they get more ML ABs. There should be further improvement.

I think the offense has to be evaluated in stages. Month 1 & 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6. There should be an improvement I am guessing. The improvement may be inconsistent.

I would like to see 15 position players for the 13 that would be on next years 26 man roster. Only 3 of them should be non power guys because the FO seems to value power highly. Non power from the backup catcher and Urena.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#379852) #
Whatever W-L record the team ends up with is going to say very little about the actual quality of the team. In all likelihood, it's just going to get them a better draft spot than they deserve. Pythagoras tells us that all by himself. But what's particularly interesting, and encouraging, is how young players have been sent down with instructions to work on something, and have returned better for the experience. (I suppose that says something good about the organization.)

I was slightly worried about Biggio's struggle to get himself much above the Mendoza Line. But there are three things that give me hope: 1) he sure seems to hit a lot of line drives, and I think you'll find the data confirms it; b) his luck should improve, as his BABiP is more than 30 points lower than the league average; c) all those strikeouts looking. Very few players in the league go down looking at strike three more often. So he'll either learn to foul off that pitch and keep at the AB going, or the umpires will recognize the kid has a good eye and give him some respect, or both.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#379853) #
Roles like Font's mess with the projections.  I don't know if he can keep this up, with the steady work every 3 days, but it's neither fish nor fowl (starting nor relieving) for projection purposes.  108 opener (i.e. medium leverage) innings is a significant role, and if you've found someone who is good at it, you have something.  To give an idea, let's say you've got an opener who goes 2 innings on average and gives up 3 runs per 9 and a main event who goes 4 innings on average and gives up 4.7 runs per 9.  That amounts to 4.13 runs per 9 innings for 6 innings every 3 games.  That's the equivalent of 54 good starts.  Finding the main events to fill those roles is not easy, but it's a lot easier than finding conventional starters.  I think Thomas Pannone can do that, for instance. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#379856) #
Exactly right, Magpie.  Biggio is going to end up with better numbers than he currently has just as Bichette will end up with lesser ones- Bo must have stolen all of Cavan's horsehoes in Buffalo.  The interesting one is Vladdy, who is perfectly capable of carrying a club for six weeks. And Rowdy Tellez, who may have learned something.  We'll see.

As a group, the young players are remarkably easy to root for.  Fun times.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#379857) #
I'd like to see if Font can go 4 innings and team him up with another multi-innings pitcher. I don't know what to make of Thomas Pannone, but I've been generally disappointed.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#379858) #
There is the challenge for the Jays (and all other teams) - finding guys who can do those roles and not just doing 9 one inning guys as you can't have a 27 man staff.

That is why I think the Jays need to see if Font can handle a third inning as 3 innings cuts the stress on the rest of the staff significantly. Each inning you get from that opener is one less the rest of the team needs to cover. If 2 is all you can get effectively then so be it. His one time going into the 3rd he gave up a near HR from the description (deep CF lineout) then was pulled. Seems once through the order is what is being done. The 'main event' gets twice through, the final guys just one inning each.
pubster - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#379859) #
"To give an idea, let's say you've got an opener who goes 2 innings on average and gives up 3 runs per 9 and a main event who goes 4 innings on average and gives up 4.7 runs per 9."

Thats a pretty strong mathematical arguement. If your 7th, 8th and 9th inning pitcher can average a 3.50 runs per 9 (which sounds doable for RP) then your team would be allowing 3.92 runs per 9 innings for those 54 starts.

It would probably be harder to find the 2 inning guys in this setup than the 4 inning 'main event' who can really be just an average or slightly below average starting pitcher.

And it would be way cheaper than finding 2 starters get the same results over 27 starts each. An extra roster spot will only make this easier to do.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#379860) #
I'd like to see if Font can go 4 innings and team him up with another multi-innings pitcher.

They could try that.  Font has had 153 PAs in his career involving pitches 26-50.  Opponents are slashing .194/.268/.324.  I'd be very interested in his decay rate in the 3rd inning. 

Anyways, 4 innings as the opener of a tandem every 5 days amounts to 128 medium leverage innings.  It works if the pitcher can do that better than 2 innings every 3 days. 
pubster - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#379861) #
Would you rather Nate Pearson throw 3 innings every 3 days? Or 6 innings every 5-6 days?

bpoz - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#379862) #
I see Thornton and Waguespack as #4 SPs. SRF has a chance to be better than that. Right now his inconsistency makes me see him as below them. Let us see what he can accomplish by the end of this season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#379863) #
I liked hearing on the broadcast the other day that the young hitters have been competing amongst themselves to see who can swing at the fewest pitches outside the zone. Much better than, say, competing to see who can hit the most home runs.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#379864) #
Getting the day off tomorrow afternoon... McGuire (caught tonight), Smoak (old guy), and.... oh, Biggio (LH bat.)

Two out of three... ain't bad. Got to do better, though.
mathesond - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#379865) #
"Two out of three... ain't bad. Got to do better, though."

That's why we manage from the cheap seats.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#379870) #
Yanks-O's playing their 19th and final game of the season. O's won 2 of the 1st 3 meetings. Yankees then won 15 straight. And lead 4-1 after 1 inning today.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#379872) #
Mike, I know you have been advocating for tandem starts for a while now, and it's interesting to see the team drifting somewhat in that direction, with, for instance, the Thornton/Gaviglio combination, and you can almost consider the Font 2 inning appearances a tandem with whomever follows. The 2 inning start makes a lot of sense to me, because it's basically once through the order (6 outs, a pitcher who can give you a WHIP of about 1.3, plus the occasional error or hbp gives you about 9 batters). A 4 inning follow up is roughly twice through the order, and a lot of pitchers really struggle with the 3rd time through, so you eliminate that issue. If you pitch 4 innings every 4th game, you would end up at about 160 IP for 40 appearances, and factor in that you'd be removed before your 4 innings sometimes, you might end up around 140-150 IP, which should be OK. So you could be rotating through 3 openers going 2 innings each time, and 4 bulk pitchers going 3 - 4 innings each time. That leaves 6 other pitchers for a 13 man staff.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#379873) #
I typically like players like Derek Fisher, but honestly watching him play I just donít have a lot of confidence in him.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#379874) #
I've read articles that indicate that hitters' OPS will rise roughly 100 points from the 1st to the 3rd time a pitcher goes through the order. I had a look at about a dozen good but not great pitchers, guys like Wacha, Quintana, Ray, Chacin, Anibal Sanchez, and found the average increase was a little higher than that, about 115 points. That's a huge difference. Cutting out that 3rd time through the order would seem like an outstanding strategy if you have a group of decent to good pitchers, but not stars. I looked at a few aces, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Greinke, and the difference was not nearly as large, so the traditional role fits them. With the type of pitchers the Jays will have next year, it might be a good strategy to never have a pitcher go through the lineup a 3rd time.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#379875) #
The only thing is the playoffs.  Unlike 30 years ago, it is less difficult to jump through the hoop of making the playoffs than to jump through the hoop of winning a World Series once you are in the playoffs.  For playoff purposes, it is important to have some pitchers who are positively good because you can lean on them more because of all the days off.  Even one pitcher of this quality makes a significant difference.  Hence the discussion about Gerrit Cole...
Magpie - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#379876) #
I typically like players like Derek Fisher, but

I assume that management is thinking that there are real skills there if they can just be unlocked. If it can be done, they've got... oh, someone like Randal Grichuk but with more speed and considerably better plate discipline. Fisher swings and misses about as regularly as Grichuk, but he takes far more strikes and gets called out on strikes almost twice as often. Fisher hits more line drives than Grichuk, but he also hits way more balls on the ground. He's a project
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#379877) #
Oh I get it heís a project, and he fits the mold of take a chance on a guy who hits the ball hard and work on the discipline after. This has worked out before with Smoak and to a lesser extent Grichuk, but the non scout eye of mine just doesnít see it.
scottt - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#379878) #
What kind of player is Derek Fisher? Toolsy guy who never put it together?

He's kinda like the opposite of Biggio. Pretty left handed swing with high bat speed that produced 20+ homers in his first 3 seasons in the minors, including AAA, but not enough contact and plate discipline once in the majors. Well above-average speed,  but poor instincts.

He has a very high ceiling, but will he ever break out?
I'd rather have him than Brito.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#379879) #
2020 and 2021 will be interesting to watch from the pitching side. Will the Jays keep doing the opener thing or as more good kids reach will it go more towards the usual 5 starters going 6+ each ideally.

With Font doing a beautiful job once through the order every 3 days, he'd get 54 starts throwing 108 innings at this pace. Mix in 3 normal starters and you'd have 33 x 3 + 54 = 153 games covered leaving just 9 for others and with offdays maybe even less. Not hard to imagine that working, on paper but someone would need short rest...
N1, Opener, N2, N3, Opener
N1, Opener (short rest), N2, N3, Opener
Even with offdays I don't see how to do it without a 'floater' to balance it out - 14 days of games to start 2019 for the Jays you'd need another guy in there.

N1, Opener, N2, N3, Opener
N1, Floater, Opener, N2, N3
Opener, N1, Floater, Opener, N2
N3, Opener, N1, Floater, Opener
N2, N3, Opener, N1, Floater, Opener

You can see what a mess it quickly becomes. Over 25 games you get N1 5 starts, N2 & N3 4 each, Opener 9, Floater 4. Now, in a real schedule you'd probably be getting an off day in there so lets see with the 2020 schedule what we'd get, assuming maximum starts for #1-3 with the opener getting bonus off time, and floater used only when needed. In 5 day segments...

N1, N2, N3, Opener, Floater
N1, N2, off day, N3, Opener
N1, N2, off day, N3, Opener
N1, N2, Opener, N3, Floater
Offday, N1, N2, N3, Offday
Opener, N1, N2, N3, Opener
Floater, N1, N2, N3, Offday
And we are done April.

N1 & 2 & 3 = 7 starts, 1 bonus day of rest
Opener = 6 starts, only twice on schedule
Floater = 3 starts. Could be a 'Johnny Full Staff' day or a one day call-up each time.
That seems manageable. The Opener could be used in relief for someone (the N1 or N2) perhaps, give him the 7/8th each time so he can mentally prep like for a start or let him start for the N1/N2 guy instead with them being the 'headliner'.

It all depends on planning and on the guys involved. With a team this young the egos shouldn't be too much of a problem vs telling, say, Stroman that someone else is getting 2 innings for sure on 'his day'. Next challenge is finding 3 solid starters...
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#379881) #
Galvis was 4/5 with a HR today. Nice free pickup for Cincy.
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#379884) #
Meanwhile, Orlando Arcia has a wRC+ of 9 in August, not counting a hitless 2 ABs today. It still baffles me why they didn't work out something for Galvis at the deadline.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 14 2019 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#379886) #
"Galvis was 4/5 with a HR today. Nice free pickup for Cincy."

If a recently cut/traded/released Blue Jay is doing well, I don't need to check for myself...I can just check my batter's box for greenfrog posts :)
greenfrog - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#379887) #
Freedom of expression is a wonderful thing.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#379888) #
As a fan of the SF Giants, one of the most perplexing deals at the deadline was the acquisition by the Atlanta Braves of Giants' free agent dud Mark Melancon, taking on all of Melancon's contract, which I figured was untradeable. Since acquiring him, the Braves have seen Melancon surrender 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings, with an ERA of 10.13. The Braves are on the hook for the balance of his $14 million this year, $14 million next year, and there are $7 million in deferred payments due as well - not sure how much of that the Braves are responsible for. Don't know what Alex was thinking with that deal. His other big name relief acquisition has blown up in his face even worse, but that looked at the time like a good deal. Shane Greene had been terrific for the Tigers, but has given the Braves 4 1/3 innings of 13 hit, 14.54 ERA garbage. Their other bullpen deadline deal netted Chris Martin, who has given them about the same as Melancon, 4 1/3 innings with an ERA of 10.38. What a mess.

I see Grichuk is up to his usual second half excellence, with a line of .261/.303/.522/.825. His career 2nd half numbers are .270/.314/.546/.860 and he could certainly get there again this year. Too bad he can't figure things out a bit sooner in the season, he'd be a heck of a player.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#379889) #
Before he was notified he was getting fired/supplanted in the off season and decided to trade bonafide (at the time) prospects, AA has always overvalued and hoarded his prospects. The one major, major, exception is the Donaldson trade.

Hopefully this front office trades top 100 prospects like Ian Anderson for whatever the missing pieces may be.
hypobole - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#379890) #
Hey, how come no one posted this already. It's a great answer to a fantastic Tangotiger question.
Magpie - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 02:49 AM EDT (#379892) #
AA has always overvalued and hoarded his prospects.

Kolby Allard for two months of a middle reliever suggests he might be changing his ways.
scottt - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 06:40 AM EDT (#379894) #
I can't agree that AA hoarded prospects. He was always eager to trade them, it's just that he was never in a position to buy at the deadline, 2015 included. It must be weird for him to see what the Mets and Reds have done.

AA was great at hoarding draft picks, but he missed a lot of opportunity to sell in July.
Maybe you can blame Beeston for that. Or maybe he'd have rather let a reliever walk for a draft pick than trade him for prospects?
For example, in 2013, Oliver was a free agent who could have been traded.

In 2015, he picked up Mark Lowe who had an ERA of 1.0 with Seattle but only gave him 3.79 and LaTroy Hawkins who was good during the year, but allowed 7 earned runs in less than 2 playoffs innings. So, he's been there before.

scottt - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#379895) #
That reminded me that prior to the last couple of years, the Jays had not made a lot of trades for prospects at the deadline.
I think that was largely a product of the B type of restricted free agents.

I remember in 2008, they traded Matt Stairs to the Phillies for Fabio Castro who had not pitched in the majors since the previous year. In 2009 he had an ERA of 4.0 in AAA/AA and became a free agent in the fall.

So just signing interesting guys like Oh and Phelps and getting multiples years of control on the returns is a good strategy.

The next stage will be to try to get something for the prospects who are out of options.

85bluejay - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#379896) #
I remain completely baffled that no contender would give up a lottery ticket for Galvis with the season he's having.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#379897) #
Not saying this is a good reason, or even that it is the likely explanation... but it could be that they weren't pushing to trade Galvis, that they were setting the asking price relatively high. They'd already dealt Sogard, and Bichette was hitting .217/.261/.410 over his last 20 games at Buffalo. If they had traded Galvis for a D-prospect and Bichette had looked overmatched in his first taste of the bigs they'd be in a bad spot.
scottt - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#379899) #
On the Travis Bergen front, the Giants recalled him on August 8.
He pitched 1 inning on August 9. I walk,, one hit, 1 strikeout.
He pitched again yesterday, 1 single, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout.

So the Giants might hang on to him, but his ERA is 4.74.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#379901) #
Hey, how come no one posted this already. It's a great answer to a fantastic Tangotiger question.

It's one answer to Tango's question, but probably not accurate.  The underlying assumption in Clemens' article is that the player with the lower batting average has more doubles and triples (and hence likely more speed) than the player with the higher batting average.  That is not true for most players.  For most players in the conundrum, the player with the lower batting average will have many fewer doubles and triples, and many more home runs, because he has significantly less speed.  Which means that the player with the higher batting average will most often be more valuable because his .365 OBP will lead more often to more runs scored than the lower batting average guy with the same OBP.  Obviously, it's not always true- there are slow guys who don't strike out or walk much and hit .310/.365/.510 and fast guys who strike out and walk a lot and hit .260/.365/.510 but both are the minority.  The slash lines paint a picture that is usually but not always true.

I hate to say this but I didn't find the conundrum particularly difficult. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#379906) #
It would be really cool if Eric Sogard led the Rays to a World Series championship.  In many ways, he's the anti-Pearce but in one or two, he's just like him. 
greenfrog - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#379907) #
The Jays should include a trade clause that allows them to select an extra/better prospect from the other team if the player dealt is awarded a series MVP in the postseason.
bpoz - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#379908) #
The rebuild is going well. Pitching is behind hitting.

The promotions to AA for Y Diaz, P Murphy etc... has done really well IMO.

In AAA not so good due in part to the AAA ball.

Of the kids I only really expect Borucki and SRF to be in the opening day rotation if healthy. All capable of going 5=7 innings per start. Actually Borucki, Thornton and Waguespack are all about the same age. 26 in the off season.

Pannone is in a group of 5 pitchers or so that are capable of 2-4 quality innings. So a few off season signings I expect.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#379910) #
Not an easy schedule left for the Jays but probably a good test for the youngsters. There are 4 games with Atlanta, 3 with the Dodgers and Astros, and 6 each with the Yankees and Tampa Bay, and 3 with the Red Sox. There also 6 games respectively against the sub-.500 Mariners and dreadful Orioles.

Speaking of the Orioles, the Yankees were an incredible 17-2 against them this year. Even a split of those 15 wins would have made the AL East race a lot closer at this point.
hypobole - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#379911) #
I hate to say this but I didn't find the conundrum particularly difficult.

I agree all things being equal, the speedier guy will definitely be more valuable, but looking at last years leaderboards, your premise that A will usually be the speedier player does't really seem to be accurate. Seems to be a mixed bag in both categories. Freddy Freeman was close to A, Jose Ramirez a B for instance.

A guy hitting singles may also be someone who doesn't leg out speed doubles and vice versa.
rtcaino - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#379913) #
"The underlying assumption in Clemens' article is that the player with the lower batting average has more doubles and triples (and hence likely more speed) than the player with the higher batting average."

Player B had 4 more home runs as well. So could it have been increased power that was driving the other extra-base hits (13 2B and 4 3B)?
AWeb - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#379916) #
Not sure how to find it, but 17-2 has to be one of the most lopsided in season splits. Boston went 16-3 against Baltimore just last year though. Back in the more balanced schedule days, the 1998 Yankees went 10-0 versus KC and 11-1 against Tampa Bay. The 1962 Mets were 2-16 against the Pirates and Dodgers, neither of whom won the pennant that year. 1935 Boston Braves were 2-20 against Pittsburgh, who only went 86-67 on the year and finished 4th.

The 2019 Yankees/Orioles isn't the worst beat down between the franchises, somehow. The 1927 Yankees were 21-1 against the St. Louis Browns (moved to Baltimore in 1954), outscoring them 150-65.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#379917) #
An obscure piece of trivia - the St.Louis Browns were originally called the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#379920) #
I ran a Play Index for players who hit between .255 and .265 and slugged between .505 and .515 (for the period 1970-present).  There were 13 names.  A bunch of really slow guys (Stargell, a 38 year old Aaron, Cecil Fielder, Nate Colbert, Richie Sexson, Nelson Cruz), and (a 25 year old) Andruw Jones and Daryl Strawberry. When I expanded it to 1948-present, I ended up with 21 names.  In addition to Jones and Strawberry, there was a 26 year old Johnny Callison who could run and actually led the league in triples, but also Frank Howard and Gil Hodges. On balance, they're quite a slow crew.

I ran a Play Index for players who hit between .295 and .305 and slugged between .505 and .515 for the period 1948-present.  There were 44 names.  They were on average slower than I imagined they would be, but probably a little faster than the first group.  The fast group included Joe Carter (age 26), Larry Walker (age 25), Torii Hunter (age 33), Carlos Gonzalez (age 26), Melvin Upton Jr. (age 22), Ryne Sandberg (age 32), Hal McRae (age 31), Barry Larkin (age 27), Larry Doby (age 27).  It's not quite as clear as I thought- I anticipate that there would be more seasons like Walker's, Larkin's and Melvin's and fewer seasons like Tim Wallach (age 29), Cal Ripken Jr. (age 23) and Victor Martinez (age 28).  Nonetheless, there were fewer really, really slow guys in the second group. 
Hodgie - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#379921) #
"Before he was notified he was getting fired/supplanted in the off season and decided to trade bonafide (at the time) prospects, AA has always overvalued and hoarded his prospects. The one major, major, exception is the Donaldson trade."

You've lost me here @dalimon5. Even if you want to exclude the Donalodson trade AND narrow the criteria down to only Top 100 prospects Anthopoulos had already sent Marisnick (Marlins) and D'Arnaud (Mets) packing in separate deals. Expand that to Top 10 prospects and then you see names like Carlos Perez, Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciechowski, Adeiny Hechavarria, Justin Nicolino, Henderson Alvarez, some guy named Thor ..... how was this prospect hoarding?

hypobole - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#379922) #
Yeah, AA was definitely not a prospect hoarder. I remember him saying as much even prior to 2015, discussing prospects as trade capital.
scottt - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#379924) #
A hit is better than a walk, but not nearly twice as good. (Because a hit is more likely to score a run and also because some of those hits are doubles, singles and homeruns.)
As far as OPS goes, a single is better since it counts as both OBP and SLG.
However, if the OBP and slugging are the same, the guys are pretty much equivalent.

As for who is faster, the doubles and triples also count as hits.
If a large portion of a hitter's hits are double, that probably indicates a lot of line drives rather than speed which would also lead to a lot of infield singles. A guy who has a lot of singles might be a ground ball hitter rather than a slow guy who hits fly balls.  But it's kinda hard to guess a hitter's profile just based on the distribution of singles, doubles and triples.

dan gordon - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#379927) #
Heard an interesting radio segment a couple of days ago about whether it was easier to develop your own pitchers and acquire position players outside the organization, or develop your own position players and acquire pitchers from outside the organization, and which strategy was better for building a championship team. The study mentioned that in the last 2 World Series (Red Sox, Astros and Dodgers), there were a lot of home grown position players, but few home grown pitchers. I forget the exact number of home grown pitchers on the 3 teams combined, but it was very low, maybe only 3 or 4. The Blue Jays are following that model, with the new influx of home grown position players, and a dearth of home grown pitchers.
hypobole - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#379928) #
11 Jays position players last year have played for other MLB teams this year. Of those 11, Urshela and Donaldson have been 1st and 2nd best as hitters this year, with wRC+ of 149 and 130 respectively. Whose 3rd?
JB21 - Thursday, August 15 2019 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#379932) #
Can't be Steve Pearce as it's an odd year.
hypobole - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#379934) #
I think Pearce may be the worst of the bunch, and that's pretty bad considering 2 others hit so poorly they were released and aren't even in the majors anymore.
hypobole - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#379935) #
10 scoring plays in the Astros-A's game so far. Every one was a home run. A 2-run, a 3-run and 8 solo shots. A's lead 7-6 going to the 9th.
scottt - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#379936) #
It's usually not one or the other. It's just that pitchers are less predictable.

Boston finished last in 2014 with a rotation of
Buchholtz 29
Lester 30
Lackey 35
Peavy 33

So they traded Lester for Cespedes and a draft pack.
They traded Lackey for Joey Kelly
They traded Peavy for Heath Embree
They traded Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez
Then they flipped Cespedes for Porcello who had only 1 year and they extended him.
They traded Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster for Wade Miley

They finished last in 2015 with a rotation of

So they traded Miley for Roenis Elias and Carson Smith
They had Steven Wright who came from Cleveland in a trade for Lars Anderson back in 2012.
So they signed David Price and finished first with a rotation of


After that, wanting to go all the way, they traded 4 prospects including Moncana and Michael Kopech for Chris Sale.
They picked up Benintendi with the 7th overall draft pick in 2015 and he was in Boston the next year.
The Jays will have an early pick next year.

Mike Green - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#379942) #
The link between team payroll and team wins appears to be getting tighter despite the luxury tax.  Even Tampa, which is a successful low payroll franchise, went through a 3 year trough from 2014-16 after its 6 year winning run from 2008-13. 
hypobole - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#379943) #
The best hitter among last years Jays who have played elsewhere this year? Here's the wRC+ for the 9 I didn't mention, plus 1 who caused much teeth gnashing earlier this year. From worst to first.

Steve Pearce 28
Yangervis Solarte 43
Kendrys Morales 61
Curtis Granderson 73
Kevin Pillar 80
Harold Ramirez 81
Russell Martin 81
Dwight Smith 83
Aledmys Diaz 110
Jon Berti 116
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 16 2019 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#379946) #
" plus 1 who caused much teeth gnashing earlier this year."

I know - we gave up on Kendrys Morales too soon.
scottt - Sunday, August 18 2019 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#380014) #
The luxury tax affects only a handful of teams.
It's not the luxury tax that make losing teams reduce their payroll.

A number of teams have made moves because of the luxury tax.
The Yankees did not go after Corbin and signed Happ instead. That cost them a few wins.
They still have the best record in baseball.
The tax does limits the wins for the teams that are already spending the most.

The Red Sox are having a bad year but they are still much better than the Orioles and the Jays.
The tax limited them from getting better because they don't have prospects to trade away.
When Boston was finishing last, they still had a relatively high payroll.
The are not many teams like that right now.

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