Where would Pache sit on our list if we could convince AA to trade him for our 3B? Good trade for both teams?

Personally, I'd put Pache at #2 as a Blue Jay prospect. I certainly wouldn't trade Vladdy for him. I also wouldn't trade Pearson or Bichette for him, and at that point I think Atlanta would have no more interest.

Ender Inciarte would be a more realistic target from the Barves. Not necessarily the best the Jays can do, but definitely an upgrade on the current centre field options.

The Athletic has a solid piece up about the top 20 games of the decade. The Orioles play-in game and Bat Flip make the grade, as does Doc's first career postseason start.

Pache is ranked just behind Pearson by MLB, so it would make sense that he’d be the Jay’s number 2. A Guerrero for Pache trade is very unlikely just because of optics but acquiring an elite cf with a very good hit tool would move the needle for the Jay’s rebuild. 3B becomes a problem requiring a temporary solution.

I would put Josh Winckowski on a consideration list, not because he is ranked by BP, but because I have considered him an under the radar guy each of the past 2 seasons.

SWR is the 2nd youngest of any of those guys, at the 2nd highest level of any of those guys, and arguably had the best stats of any of them. And also, he's toolsy too.

The Rangers are signing Kyle Gibson. I thought he was a realistic target for the Jays, so that's one name no longer out there.

Of the three lists posted, I like BA's the most.

Thanks John N.

I like Chavez Young. He is a RF rather than a CF. Maybe that is why he is not as highly rated. #24 on my list.

#11-20.

11) M Hiraldo
12) A Kay
13) P Murphy
14) Y Diaz
15) H Perez
16) M Castillo
17) J Murray
18) J Winckowski: 3 years of SS ball, so he must have been learning stuff in Extended ST. So Winckowski, G Moreno and A Kloffenstein are examples of prospects that needed that learning to advance. I will follow them as examples of the benefits of Extended ST.
19) A Hatch
20) J Romano: I expect him to be a Major League bullpen arm. So "almost for sure" makes my list.

I see Murray and Castillo as having good control and enough stuff to have the best chances of making the Majors. Neither has had any trouble in the minors so far.

I forgot about Reese McGuire. Made my list before the season ended. Should be in the teens.

McGuire and I believe Alford remain rookie-eligible among the position players. If one wants to include Kevin Smith and Logan Warmoth, I'd include Santiago Espinal.

Merryweather looks like he's finally coming back - who knows what he'll look like now.

Seems like there are many possibilities for both position and pitching. Will take a good part of the season to sort through possibilities.
Rotation: Pearson, Anderson, Borucki, Kay, Shoemaker, Thornton, Waguespack, Zueck
RP: Font, Bass, Adam, Gaviglio, Law, Merryweather, Pannone, Ramone, Foley, etc.
Positions: Tellez, Valera, Drury, Urena, McKinney, Alford, Davis, Fisher

I tend to think in tiers rather than outright lists so Mike's approach is probably closer to mine. In fact, his list would be similar to mine other than I would be lower on Kay (he'd be on my third tier) and lower on Zeuch (he would be in the fourth tier for me). The system's lack of OF's is pretty glaring right now. I've been advocating an asset reallocation trade for over a year now - move one or two of the assets in tier 2 for a real live CF (preferably with some defence and OBP skills). As was noted above, this would move the needle significantly on the rebuild. In my view, the CF piece is actually far more important than acquiring bulk pitching (which I don't really see the point in).

I give more credit that many perhaps to pitchers who pass the double A test, and show some signs of being able to throw 180-200 innings.  I can see Kay ending up as a pitcher that is one of the five or six you lean on in the playoffs. 

Agree on Kay,Mike. I believe he will be a major league pitcher and a decent one this coming season even if he begins the season in Buffalo.

McGuire and I believe Alford remain rookie-eligible among the position players. If one wants to include Kevin Smith and Logan Warmoth, I'd include Santiago Espinal

BB-Ref tells me Alford’s rookie status is intact, but not McGuire’s - I believe he went over the service time limit for rookie status. I considered all of Smith, Warmoth, and Espinal, but only Smith made the cut for my top 30.

FWIW the reason I'm probably lower on Kay than others is that he seemed to me to be a LH version of Thornton (i.e a two pitch pitcher (FB/CV) who is far more likely to be successful as a reliever (maybe even a high leverage one) than as a starter).

I don't think of McGuire as a prospect, but if he's eligible what do you do with him? Steamer projects him to hit .241/.303/.387 and to be worth 1.6 WAR in 309 PAs.  From 2017-19, he's hit 36 doubles and 25 homers in double A, triple A and the major leagues in 920 PAs.  That's medium range pop.  He will take a walk and he doesn't strike out that much.  He plays good defence behind the plate. 

I double-checked: McGuire remains rookie-eligible - he was called up July 27, meaning he's short of the 45 days of active service time pre-Sept. 1. He was only up in September last year.

The Rays have designated 1B Jesus Aguilar for assignment. Had a great season in 2018 and regressed last year. RHB, could be a platoon partner for Tellez if they want to go that route, or a full time player if he recovers his 2018 form, when he was a 3.2 WAR player. Not a free agent until 2023.

Interesting trade between the Padres and Brewers today, with some significant young players involved.

Gibson gets 3 years at $10 million a year. If the guys the Jays are targeting are a little higher than that, it shouldn't be a problem.

My relatively uninformed top-ten:

1) Nate Pearson
2) Jordan Groshans
3) Simeon Woods Richardson
4) Alek Manoah
5) Alejandro Kirk
6) Gabriel Moreno
7) Anthony Kay
8) Orelvis Martinez
9) Reese McGuire
10) Otto Lopez

The top 8 are easy, and there's some separation after those guys. I think over time I've shifted to prefer players closer to the majors (Kay, McGuire) to toolsier dreamers. I think Kay and McGuire are strong likelihoods to be major-league contributors. Lopez ranks ahead of guys like Leo Jimenez, Miguel Hiraldo and Dasan Brown as someone who has demonstrated a strong hit tool in full-season ball at a young age.

I gave Pardinho, Riley Adams, Hiraldo and Kloffenstein strong consideration for the top 10.

Moreno is athletic enough to move off catcher. If his bat is elite, they probably should. He's probably not CF potential though.

Moreno started off as a shortstop and moved to catcher. He runs well. It wouldn't surprise me at all if centerfield is ideal for him.

Kay has 3 pitches 4-seamer, curve, changeup.
Thornton throws 4-seamers, sliders, curves, 2-seamers, cutters and a changeup that looks a lot like a splitter.
Kay was throwing his fastball 62% of the time and Thornton about 45%.
Thornton seemed to change his mix quite a bit from game to game, sometimes throwing a lot of sliders and sometimes focusing on the curve. He tried different grips--suggested by Buchholz.
Kay had to be reminded to keep mixing his 3 pitches even if he had problems with the change.
The velocity was about the same, but 93mph plays a lot better for a lefty.
Thornton was pitching better when easing off towards the end.

Jansen is an extreme pull hitter and has significant splits.
McGuire being a left handed hitter, they work really well as a pair.
The Rays are giving Zunino another shot for 4.5M  even though he hit .165/.232/.312.
We need  to see more of McGuire and less of Maile. That much is sure.

Baltimore is putting Villar through waivers. He was worth 4bWAR and will cost 10M for one year.

Apparently, Baltimore is also looking to trade Dylan Bundy, who has a career ERA of 4.65, FIP of 4.76, and has produced WAR figures of 1.7, 2.7, 0.1, and 2.3 the last 4 years. he's nothing special, but could be a serviceable starter for 2 years while the kids develop. He's a free agent after the 2021 season.

I think the Jays are thinking beyond 2 years, possibly looking to sign a contract with some team options.
They don't seem to think Akiyama is a fit given that he's 31.

Mr Kay reminds me a lot of Brett Cecil. Spotty success starter with big upside as relief option.

Bundy was nearly elite when you take out the homers. As analysts have pointed out, he and Greinke have many similarities. It wouldnt be a surprise to see Bundy dominate in Minnesota.

New article up by Shi Davidi, says the Jays did table an offer to Gibson and "with two of their targets now off the board and Plan B or C now".

I'm assuming they would only go 2 years on Gibson.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-interest-gibson-odorizzi-need-pivot-bolster-staff/

Gibson will be a nice test of the significance of strength of schedule for projection purposes.  There's a big, big difference between the AL Central and the AL West- moving 1/3 of one's starts from a really easy context to a tough one should be noticeable.  I'd guess an ERA just a little short of 5. 

Guys we were starting after trade deadline are all better than Gibson imo. I don't think Davidi knows who they are talking to and who not.

The AL Central should be more competitive next year with the White Sox spending and the Tigers prospects starting to reach. KC will be bad for a while, but the other divisions have Seattle and Baltimore.

So Kyle Gibson and Chase Anderson are practically the same performance wise. Gibson 3 years at $10 mil/yr. Anderson 2 @$9.5/yr. Am I right?

I would say that Anderson is a much more effective pitcher than Gibson. Anderson has further upside as well with the tweaking of pitch mix. Gibson simply gives you innings and not particularly good ones at that.

Pretty close. Roark is in the same ballpark, although Anderson was carefully limited to 4/5 innings.
Nobody is expecting these guys to win 20 games, but they're throwing strikes and missing enough bats.

I don't think it's fair to look just at bWAR for Gibson. He is notoriously the exception when it comes to comparing fangraphs and bbref assessments of overall value. Fangraphs had him at 2.6 WAR in each of the last two years. Meanwhile, Fangraphs has Anderson at 1.2 and 0.3 WAR over the last two years.

Gibson's xFIP was actually lower last year (3.80) than in 2018 (3.91). In that light, 3/30 looks like an absolute steal. 3/60 might even be good value.

If the Jays think Gibson's talent is closer to his actual performance, then fine, 2018 might be an outlier and they would be right to stay away from Gibson at or near the price Texas paid for him. I'm not sure that's it though.

Some of it comes from Gibson being a poor fielder and I'm not banking on the Jays defense at this point.
I'm not even curious about the Rangers defense (with Stinky at second and all) but they've certainly done well with those 3/30 contracts so far. Also, we don't know if the new Rangers ballpark will advantage pitching or not.

Gibson's Statcast numbers aren't good at all, even without the strength of schedule adjustment. He had a good year 5 years ago, an average year two years ago and below average ones in the other 3 years.

As a comment above alludes to as well, I find the Gibson vs Anderson comparison interesting.

Chase Anderson was seen as a minor pick-up. Kyle Gibson was seen as a desirable free agent commodity.

I would rather have Chase.

Starling Marte has said he would welcome a trade to a contender.

Great! That would open him to go to the Blue Jays!

Right? Um... kind of? No?

He didn't say what they needed to be contending with...

Nice one rpriske. Hahaha.

In the AL 6 teams had 93-107 wins. Then Boston 84 and Texas 78. Everyone else was very bad (7 teams).

In the NL 6 teams had 57-77 wins. The Reds, SF and SD I believe think that they can contend.

There are not enough good FAs to help all these teams. Trades are going to be very costly due to too much competition. Someone will overpay for Giles.

Going back to prospects, are there any sleeper prospects you particularly like?

To use an old (I think) BP phrase, who is your "personal cheeseball"??

I like Chavez Young. He is a switch hitter, good base stealer and has the best arm in our system.

The non-tender deadline is Monday.
The Jays still have the following players with their projected arb figures.
Giles 8.4M
Shoemaker 3.8M
Drury 2.5M
Law 1.3M
Maile 800K

I would so drop Drury. Maile has an option if you don't mind paying him to play in AAA.

It seems like Yorman Rodriguez can hit.
I don't really see much opportunity for him to catch and he's short for a first baseman, but he looks like he can hit.

I think dropping Drury would be a good example of "addition by subtraction", but this front office has an odd fixation about him, and I would be surprised if they non-tendered him. They seem very slow to change their minds about people they like for some reason.

Off the radar guys? I like offense, so I've always liked guys who can mash the ball, even if other aspects of their game are iffy, so yes, I like Yorman Rodriguez as well. Solarte looks interesting - plays CF, can run, takes a walk, might be developing a bit of power, switch-hitter. Juan Pizaro looks similar, a year younger and a level lower. Alberto Rodriguez looks like a promising hitter.

Dany Jimenez was mentioned in a Bluebird Banter article a few weeks ago as one of three minor league players who they thought should be added to the 40 man roster. ( along with Hatch and Espinal who were ) Jimenez isn't given much notice as a prospect but he has put up good numbers.

MLBTR has just released it's top 25 trade candidates in MLB. Giles is #1.

No shock there.  Giles is a luxury item for the Jays today.  One year before free agency, on a team going nowhere, a closer is the least important piece.   If the Jays can get something solid for him then why not?  I'm sure someone else can handle his 60-70 innings this upcoming season.

The Jays could offer to pay Giles’s salary. This might help them land a slightly better prospect. It might be a better investment of money than spending that amount on a mediocre free agent.

Teams don't usually trade good prospects for guys with only 1 year of control.
I think the Giles for Dominic Smith swap is interesting. There's risk on both side.
The Polar Bear has taken the 1B spot and Smith is not good in the outfield.
He's had a breakout year, but is it sustainable?

There's a good chance they wait until the deadline to deal Giles.
There's a risk he's not healthy again, but that's also the reason they won't get much over the winter.

Good point about the short control window - although getting Giles now means you can offer him a QO and get a draft pick if lost in free agency.  Dominic Smith is interesting (282/355/525 last year in just 89 games, lifetime 99 OPS+ over 194 games, plays 1B/LF/RF) .  The Mets 'closer' was Edwin Diaz with 26 saves but a 5.59 ERA due to a 2.3 HR/9 rate - grossly out of wack vs his past (0.9 in Seattle before he was traded).  If they are dumb enough to send Smith and Diaz to the Jays for Giles I'd take it in a split second.    Doubt their team is that dumb but one never knows.  Their budget is very tight so the Jays could easily pay Giles salary.  If the Jays really wanted a good prospect then they might take Yoenis Cespedes' $29.5 mil salary for 2020 on for some top prospects as well.  If Cespedes comes back then it might work out nicely, if not then make sure you get some quality from the Mets.  The Jays could easily eat that money in 2020 if they got parts for 2021 and beyond.

I don't see Cespedes as the type of character to build with.
Smith, however, looks like a decent guy, sorta like Drury but with actual results.
I don't think they're giving up on Diaz just yet, maybe a stint as the setup guy would help him.
Villar being available for basically nothing illustrates the problem with short control window and high salary.
Giles has also a load management issue. The Jays could use the QO to parley him into a 3 years contract if they wanted.
If he's unhappy here, he's a great actor.

I see Cespedes as purely payroll relief for the Mets in exchange for prospects.  Much like was done withFrancisco Liriano twice by the Jays, first getting him from Pittsburgh for Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez.  Then sending him with cash to pay for him to Houston for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez.  Both worked out nicely I'd say with Hernandez and McGuire both still here and being decent parts for the rebuild, while Liriano helped in 2016.  His 2 years here were his most expensive (over $13 mil each year) but I think they worked out nicely.  Now, for taking on a salary like Cespedes we'd need top quality back.  Don't know their system and a quick checked didn't make anyone jump out at me.

Liriano was decent and brought back Teoscar. 
Cespedes is a disruptive fellow who will be making 30M in 2020.
That's money that can be used much more effectively by signing good free agents and flipping them around.

You can’t force contention, as the truism goes. The Jays could have added players like Eovaldi, Fowler, Cain, as many hoped (at about $90-100m each)...how much would those players have helped them in 2020-2022? Collectively, those three players produced 2.7 WAR in 2019). Free agency is an unreliable way to build a sustainable contender. The front office needs to keep doubling down and tripling down on its prospect talent until the team starts to break through. Then they can add complementary pieces in free agency and trades to put the team over the top. ‘Twas ever thus, at least in Toronto.

Correct greenfrog.

I hope that the two strategic choices for 2020 are rebuilding or significant improvement/contention. Unfortunately, I take the reported pursuit of Gibson as a sign that the strategic objective for 2020 will be “avoid being awful”. But we’ll see.

Greenfrog - 100% agreed.  That is why I keep hoping the Jays will take on ugly contracts, then release the players in exchange for decent prospects.  The current management team did it in 2016, time to do it again.  Find teams desperate to dump contracts who are willing to dump prospects as well in order to get rid of the debt.  The Jays biggest asset right now is their extremely low payroll vs what they can afford.  Use that to their advantage as few teams have that right now (or ever).

"Then they can add complementary pieces in free agency and trades to put the team over the top. ‘Twas ever thus, at least in Toronto."

i f you don't have confidence in them to add free agents of value now or in the past then what makes you think they will be able to when they're ready to contend? You're using the same logic to show that free agency is a poor investment but also a good one depending on timing.

I think a better assessment may be to say that free agency can be valuable or wasteful depending on each signing and how it works out or doesn't for the team. You could have easily used Morton, bbrantley, Corbin, Grandal instead of Cain, Eovaldi and other bad signings.

Just playing devil's advocate, i think I do get your bigger point.

The Marlins won 2 World Series mostly through free agency and the 2015 Jays were the remnants of the 2013 Jays--favorites to win the division--which were a bunch of free agents traded by the Marlins.

The Yankees acquired key pieces by trading away free agents--Miller and Chapman.

Now, Fowler and Cain were always alternative solution for center field, the Jays would never have taken both.
Eovalidi was always a huge risk, I don't know who would have wanted him.
Ryu is comparable, although the ceiling is clearly higher and perhaps some load management could make the risk palatable.

It's not too late to do a sign and trade. Sign someone who is highly valued but doesn't cost a pick and trade him away to a contender if the Jays are not close to the wild card. Next year, they'll be in a better position to lose a pick if that's how the 2021 CBA works. They've done that with lesser players while they still have costly contracts on the books. Now, they should aim higher.

I get the feeling that they'll be waiting to bet on whatever is left when the dominoes fall. Boras will make everybody wait forever for Cole and Strasburg.

I was hoping for Dominic Smith last offseason as a buy low candidate but coming off a nice bounceback season and the NY hype, the price may be too high, plus it's likely Vlad's job in a couple of years - I'd try to sign Greg Bird cheaply. Mets are a good trading partner though because they expect to contend and their GM isn't shy about moving prospects and if they want to sell low on Diaz (doubt it), I'm buying.

The Reds really want to contend next year and have strong ML pitching along with some quality pitching prospects who may not be ready until 21/22 season - maybe the Reds might be willing to move some of that prospect capital for more immediate help - I wonder what a package of Jansen/McGuire, Gurriel,Espinal,Zeuch,Alford would bring back?

I'd try to look for a CF prospect who may be a year away - like the Padres getting Taylor Trammell from the reds last July.

At the moment I am in the "avoid being awful" camp. But it is in the early stages of the off season.

To start the rotation is better without Richard and Buchholz but much worse without Stroman. The pen is better with a Stroman going deep into games and also Giles to close. With both of them gone the rotation and pen are worse on paper.

The IF defense to start last year was strong with Galvis, but weak with Gurriel. I don't know with Drury/Guerrero. Opening day IF of Biggio, Bichette and Guerrero may have equal defense. The OF defense is better this year I am guessing on Opening day.

The offense should be a lot better on Opening day. When injuries occur depth will be a big issue I believe. Vlad being a lot better is probably the biggest factor.

I think Atkins said that position player additions would emphasize offense.

No more A Hanson and S Brito (if it happens) would help us win a few more games.

What do you think the Jays are asking in return for Giles?

I think a near ready pitcher. A Kay for example or Zeuch. Or 2 pitchers SRF and one from the Y Diaz, P Murphy group that are in my #11-20 list. This package is not yet ready for the Majors because they have to still master AA and definitely AAA. So 2021/22 is realistically expected.

I think whatever the Jays do, they should be prepared for the possibility of regression from guys like Bo, Gurriel and Biggio. If they have Tellez and Drury protecting them then it's more likely to happen.

• Elvis Luciano will be a piece at some point, but not until 2021 - will he be a starter or reliever?  Hard to know.
• Yennsy Diaz had a cup of coffee last year but probably will be in AAA to start 2020
• T.J. Zeuch showed promise and will get a shot in 2020 at some point, if not right away.
• Sean Reid-Foley is only entering his age 24 season but needs to step up or be passed by.
• Anthony Kay I expect to be in the rotation early on.
• Ryan Borucki will be in the rotation if healthy
• Thomas Pannone seems to be loved by the team, no idea why
• Jacob Waguespack will likely be starting
• Trent Thornton should be a lock
• In the minors with 0 ML time you get guys like Nate Pearson, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Joey Murray, and many others who might be ready in 2020 at some point.

If the Jays have ANY hope of keeping fans this year, IMHO they should keep Giles unless blown away. Even at the deadline, if you only get a Drury-type, hold on..
If we have Giles ready to lock down a lead, at least we can kind of count on SOMETHING on this team. Nothing more demoralizing than the kids busting their butts for 8 innings, getting ahead 6-5, only to watch <flavour of the month> give up 3 runs in the 9th... At least IMHO.

If the FO doesn't aggressively market and trade Ken Giles this offseason, then any calamity that befalls Giles next year in terms of lack of performance or health issues at the wrong time (as happened last July) will be all on the FO.

I'd prefer to sign Giles to an extension, unless they get an overwhelming offer. He's one of the best closers in the business, and could be a crucial piece to the puzzle. John, I see the April 2020 rotation quite a bit differently. I would say - player not yet acquired, Shoemaker, Anderson, Borucki, Thornton if I had to guess now. Pearson up in May to replace Thornton, and the 1st injury replacements will be from among Waguespack, Kay and Zeuch. Wouldn't be surprised to see Diaz, Murphy, Murray or Merryweather or Hatch later in the year, depending on various factors. I think SRF is pretty much done as a legitimate starting prospect, but couold be a decent bullpen arm.

Can't believe I forgot Shoemaker.  Of course he might get 5 starts then DL'ed again.  Starters are funny creatures - they can fail and fail and fail then suddenly 'get it' and take off.  As long as options exist you keep them around and watch for that magic moment (SRF is nearing the end of his chances - I figure this year then he is a pen piece only).

Shoemaker, Borucki, Thornton, Key, Anderson for starters early in the season. Hopefully Pearson stays healthy, continues to develop and comes up in the middle of the season. Any one of a number of starters from John’s list could make the jump to successful major league starter. Looking forward to watching the development of young pitchers and position players.

I know you meant Kay, krose, but a young Jimmy Key would be nice.

Luciano probably goes to Dunedin. He's going to be working on his secondary stuff, mostly.

Bichette and Biggio will walk if the pitchers don't give them anything.
Gurriel is more a question mark, but he's likely to hit in front of Guerrero which should be fine for him.
Guerrero will be fine.

If a starter wants to pitch around 4 guys in a lineup, then the Jays will be facing the pen by the 5th.
Jansen/McGuire didn't chase much that I noticed. That just leave 4 guys to be reminded to stay in the strike zone.

We'll soon see if Shoemaker is in the rotation. At this point they'd be crazy to dump him to save 1M.
SRF isn't going to make the April rotation. Especially if the top 3 are Free Agent X, Shoemaker and Anderson.
There's a lot of candidates for the 2 or  3 spots left.

Key and Wells were completely different and I believe they are the only really good lefty SPs we developed. We need another one. Borucki?

Borucki reminds me more of Chacin. One healthy year would dispel that.

Trading Shafer might signal that they'll start using real pitching prospects in the pen.
They need to replace Biagini and Hudson.
Out of the pen, fastballs can be thrown harder and a third pitch becomes superfluous.
However, it's no easy road for guys who lack fastball command.
These guys benefit from using a "get me over" curveball or a back door slider to get ahead in the count here and there.
They only have one guy like Font and that's a good thing. Maybe he can be used as reliever who never throw 2 days in a row.

We need to find 2 setup pitchers. A closer if Giles is traded.

Ward and Henke were V good and so was C Janssen IMO. Janssen had a great repertoire. His arm was too fragile for the rotation.

Jays have announced minor league signings, complete with ST invites:

- RHP - Phillippe Aumont
- IF - Andy Burns
- RHP- A J Cole
= RHP - Justin Miller
- OF- Patrick Kivlehan

No Moustakas for you!!

Moose to the Reds.

Interesting, the Reds give Moustakas 4/64 to play 2B, while no team seemed interested in Villar who is over 2 1/2 years younger, coming off a 4 war season and projected at less than $11m for this season.

I'm not into conspiracy theories,but owners seem to be spending more this offseason (in the early going) after the last few seasons frugality seem to portend big trouble/potential strike going into the next CBA - I wonder if this new spending will only last until a new CBA is signed.

Aaron Sanchez to be non tendered by Houston.

Steve Sanders, scouting director, headed to Pittsburgh with Cherington.

Source: Jays did their due diligence

So would you sign Sanchez for a return here or just say 'no'?  If signed how much?  1 + option for $1 mil plus option at $500k buyout or $2-5 mil would be nice, but odds are he'll be more expensive if healthy. 

Sanchez is the perfect get for this FO.

Nice spin rates, illusion of upside, dirt cheap, fan favorite.

And hey he doesn't have to deal with that meanie stroman anymore.

Sanchez will miss most of 2020 after shoulder surgery.

I wouldn't mind Danny Salazar on a spring training invite.The ship has sailed on Aaron Sanchez and the Jays.

Agree on Salazar as long as minor league contract. I feel there is a good chance he will be headed to TO.

"Steve Sanders, scouting director, headed to Pittsburgh with Cherington"

This would seem to be very bad news for the Jays. First, because Sanders seemed to be good at his job (for example, Groshans and Kloffenstein were drafted under him). Second, because he's a relatively recent hire and his departure signals that Toronto under Shapiro/Atkins is a less desirable employer than Pittsburgh under Cherington is.

It's more probable that Cherington offered a raise to Sanders or that he likes the location better.

It's okay to change staff in the winter. With that 5th pick they need to get organized out of the gate.
Which shouldn't be a problem.

It's a promotion having nothing to do with the relative desirability of the 2 organizations. Sanders will be an AGM in Pittsburgh.

Moose looks like a big overpay.

Burns is an org guy.
Kivlehan might have spent his 3 options years in the outfield, but the Jays view him as a corner infielder who will play in Buffalo.
Cole and Miller should be better than average relievers. Miller throws a splitter.
Aumont is a local guy who loves to play but always had problem with the walks.
He was a first round pick by Seattle and has bounced in the Blue Jays org before.
Like Wilmer Font, he has played for the Ottawa Champions, but Aumont has been better than Font.
He's thrown a no-hitter. Last year he was the Ace of the team and finally got the walks under control with a 1.7 BB/9.
He made 17 starts for the Champions last year and pitched for the national team.
Certainly someone I'll be cheering for.

Taijuan Walker, please.

Pillar non tendered by the Giants.

Derek Law non tendered.

Lots of catchers better Maile got non-tendered.

Maile and Adam also non tendered

Very disappointing tender. This tells us something serious about the management team. Is there any reasonable explanation for including Drury on the 40 man roster?

Sanders was arguably the biggest addition the team has made in the last few years. It's potentially a big loss, as hard as it is for some to admit it.

Of course, Sanders is a big loss. But the FO found and hired him. See no reason they can't find another. People who work for Shapiro have been constantly pirated through the years. It is one of the reasons that baseball people hold him in such high esteem.

This would seem to be very bad news for the Jays. First, because Sanders seemed to be good at his job (for example, Groshans and Kloffenstein were drafted under him). Second, because he's a relatively recent hire and his departure signals that Toronto under Shapiro/Atkins is a less desirable employer than Pittsburgh under Cherington is.

Sanders got a promotion to go to Pittsburgh, and had a connection with Cherington in Boston (worked under him when Cherington was GM of the Red Sox), which may have been why the Jays were able to get him from Boston in the first place. It doesn't say anything about the Jays organization. No doubt he is a loss for the Jays, though.

Blake Treinen, probably untouchable after 2018, gets non-tendered in 2019 - Ross Atkins, please take note.

They can do better than Maile, Law and Adams, so that's positive.

Drury is just a bench player.
This just tell us that they think he can fix his swing.
Still, arbitration salaries are not guaranteed, if he doesn't make the team they just owe him 30 to 45 days of severance pay.
Espinal and Urena will be competing for spots as well. They could also had a vet if they find one cheap.

I was certain they were going to tender Drury. As I mentioned, the front office has a warped sense of this guy's ability. Mike, I don't think tendering him indicates the club doesn't want to contend in 2020, I think it is a reflection of the distorted view they have of him, and also, I think there is a bit of the "we traded a good player for this guy and we don't want to look bad by admitting he's no good" to it. They actually think Drury can be a good player, which is in itself, rather alarming. I expect Fisher may get a lot of the benefit of the doubt here as well, due to the trade that was made for him. It's not a good sign. You want your front office to realize their mistakes quickly, and react accordingly, not keep barking up the wrong tree.

A few interesting names non-tendered, including Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker. Agree on Salazar, that would be an interesting pick up.

Agreed Dan. Alarming when you think about what this indicates regarding the competency of leadership.

I don’t think acknowledging their own mistakes is high on this FO’s list of attributes so tendering Drury is hardly surprising. I don’t think it signals, one way or the other, the intentions for next year though.

I agree with the sentiment above that is this current FO has a problem with holding onto players who obviously are 99% trash, who this fo seems to think they might break out despite the odds being 1%? The Cleveland FO gave Matt Laporta 4 seasons/1063 PA before finally cutting bait. Perhaps this is a hint at how much rope players will get that don't deserve 40man slots which is up at 11 by my counts, with most of them being traded/drafted by this current FO.

I would have non-tendered Drury, but I don't think tendering him really means anything as far as the team's intentions other than they seem to (maybe irrationally) think he's better than he's shown so far.

I admire your guys' stubborn optimisim, but I can't rightly believe that anyone was actually surprised by the Drury tender.

Exactly. That's why I mentioned a couple of days ago that Drury was going to be tendered. You can tell when this office really likes a guy, despite all the evidence that indicates they should cut bait. Fisher is the next one to get the extended look-see that I feel will be largely undeserved. That trade still bugs me.

I think front offices see flashes of talent in players and believe they can help them do it on a regular basis. I think an example of this is Fisher who shows good power at times but otherwise is useless. I fail to see what they think Drury can do well.

The way I look at it, if Drury in on the team in April, the door is wide open for Espinal to push him out before the All-Star game.

I don’t like Drury’s chances of being useful either, but I don’t feel that tendering him was a horrible move. The backup infielders on the 40-man are Drury, Urena, Valera, and Espinal. 2 of those will make the opening day roster. I don’t think Drury is clearly the worst of them, or the most lacking in upside. And I don’t think adding a good backup infielder this offseason should be a priority.

If they go in to spring training with the idea that Drury is guaranteed a spot on the opening day roster, that’s a different story.

"Drury tendered. Thumbs down- it's a clear indication that the club isn't going to try to compete in 2020."

I'm not sure I've seen such cynicism from MG before. If we see it from Gerry, we will have surely crossed the Rubicon as a forum.

I have no problems with Drury being tendered - I think Jonny German summed up my thinking succinctly.

If possible I would sign Guillermo Heredia to a minor league deal and invite to ST.

I remember way back in the 2010 draft when the Jays took high floor/low ceiling Asher Wojciechowski, I was hoping they would draft risky high ceiling Taijuan Walker instead - Now, he's free.

I think hoping for a clearcut shift from "rebuilding mindset" to "contending mindset" from this FO is probably wishful thinking.

You may be right, UO.  I'm assuming poor judgment from the owners rather than from the GM, but it could be either.  

It's quite possible, if not likely, that 2020 will be used as another development season (whether by choice or forced due to payroll), especially if prices for free agents are not as affordable as they were the previous two winters. I just don't think tendering Drury tells us that. All it tells us is that Atkins likes him and is willing to pay a projected $2.5M to see if he could reach whatever potential they seem to think he has. Infielders capable of a 2 WAR are likely not signing with teams as backups, and Drury is easily dispensable if he flops again.

Reports are out there that Zach Wheeler has at least one offer of at least $100M

The Jays are reportedly " pursuing " Zack Wheeler along with several other clubs. He is seeking a 5 year deal with a total over 100 million. Those two sentences don't quite go together and I think we can scratch another name off the list of possible free agent signees by Toronto.

To give my take on the sleeper prospects question I asked earlier, I still like Samad Taylor as a still young-for-league guy with power, speed, defensive value and some notion of the strike zone. He seems like the kind of player who could break out significantly; and Riley Adams, who seems to be finding his power, reports on his defence are positive, and I'm somewhat hopeful he can keep his strikeout rate under control.

Job security is terrible in baseball for executives and managers.

Dombrowski spent way too much. So the cost is a V high payroll with $ penalties and draft pick penalties.

G Kapler lost (no playoffs) after an expensive off season. Giradi and Farrell had successful seasons and still got fired. I am not sure why Maddon was let go.

Shapiro and Atkins should have some idea on how much rope they have left. Also the details of what the goals and timeline is to become competitive. A low payroll makes sense but is too complicated for the FO to give details of the benefits.

Brandon Drury can play every position except catcher and CF. Biggio will need a day off. Bichette plays hard so he may get injured. I fully expect Vlad to come into ST in the best shape of his life, which is not saying much considering his weight and how he needed a lot of "rest time". An injury at 2B, SS or 3B can be handled by a veteran like Drury best I should think. The pitching staff has only Giles as a good veteran. If he stays. The veteran pitchers are all mediocre bullpen arms and #4 SPs.
At the moment it looks like we will not compete. This is what the FO has said. Sort of. However baseball predictions are wrong a lot.

"Those two sentences don't quite go together "

heh. yep.

For sure those sentences are from writers and agents to drum up business. I have learned to ignore this.

If we are trying to get someone good, I am ok with that. However if our goal is depth pieces and something that is not terrible then the FO has to put more effort into these acquisitions. Quantity that may stick to the wall.

According to Ben Badler Yosver Zulueta has had tommy john surgery and will miss 2020.

Yosver Zulueta signed June 11,2019 and will be 22 Jan 23 so he is like a college arm, 4 years before needing rule 5 protection.

Really too bad about the TJ. The bonus and leaving Cuba may make his life easier. I don't really know but I have a soft heart for people.

When was the TJ done? He should be pitching 15 months later.

Zulueta just signed with the Jays this summer (part of the Dwight Smith money I think).
Mostly mean he won't have much time before having to be put on the 40.

Smith is interesting.
Familia is owned 23.3M over the next 2 years and that becomes 25M+ if he's traded.
That's a lot of money. I'd rather give Giles a QO.

Drury will be competing for a bench job, just when the bench expends by 1 and there are established players everywhere but at 1B where he's not a good option anyway. He won't have third base for a month and there will be better options in the corners. It's all kinda moot.

Wheeler is not in my sight at all. He was just average last year, although he threw a lot of innings.
He costs a pick, but he's not really an ace. He's had arm problems before.
He's a perfect guy to chase and to let go. 

There are a few interesting 1B options out there: Dominic Smith, Greg Bird, Eric Thames, but they all have their flaws.

Bird is an interesting reclamation project; Thames isn't a good defensive option, and Statcast suggests he's been outperforming his quality of contact. I wouldn't want to overpay for Smith (Statcast is sceptical of his breakout this past season) but he's also the most interesting option of the bunch. If you could get Familia and Smith together with a prospect, that's a fairly reasonable deal.

Wheeler is interesting, but I think I'd rather outbid for Cole Hamels: both MLBTR and Fangraphs are projecting him for about 2/30. I'd be happy to give him a third year - he's been a model of consistency in recent years.

Everybody is also projecting Hamels to play for a contender.

Hamels had the chance to play for a contending Jays team in 2015 and invoked his no-trade clause.

I still like Keuchel. Ground ball pitchers (Stroman) are underrated and can easily give you 200 innings when healthy.
If all goes well, Pearson will be the ace in 2021.

I have no idea about Jimmy Nelson's health but he seems like an interesting gamble at the right price. No idea how much interest there'll be

Wheeler, Ryu, Keuchel and Lindbloom all on the FO's radar. Not exactly the second coming of Rocket Roger but...

I'd be very interested in Nelson. He was excellent in 2017 before hurting his shoulder running the bases and needing surgery. He tried to come back in June of 2019 and wasn't right. After a couple more months off, he returned in September and the results were way better, with 11 K's vs 3 BB's in 8 IP. As long as they don't have to make a long term commitment to him, I'd like to see them make a push to get him. Lindblom might be OK, he was very good in Korea, but he's not going to duplicate the results that Mikolas got after playing in Japan. That's a tougher league, and Mikolas' numbers were outstanding there. Still think they should be trying to add somebody who can be a member of the starting staff when the team is competitive, and I doubt Lindblom is the guy.

I see the Jays have agreed to a 1-year deal with newly acquired Anthony Bass for $1.5 million. MLB Trade Rumours had him pegged at $1.7 million.

Nelson has produced lots of Ks but also lots of walks.
Maybe not ideal in a division without free swingers. We already got SRF.
I find Gausman more intriguing. (high strikeout, low walks).
Taijuan Walker also.

Wheeler is looking for 125M right now.
Seems too expensive for a Toronto overpay.

I've been tuned out for a bit, but I hadn't heard about Lindbloom, or know who he is. One of the best pitchers in Korean the last two years, good in years before that (noting the offensive environment in Korean baseball, specifically the baseball itself, changed drastically in the past two years). Failed to catch on in Pittsburgh in 2017, but they haven't exactly been great at figuring out MLB talent in the past few years.

Lots of innings, doesn't walk guys, lead the league in Ks, sounds good. Seems like a guy with a decent floor and possible upside for a few years...he is 32 already, so long-term wouldn't be offered by anyone else, most likely. How about 2 years, 10 million?

Here's Craig Edwards on the state of MLB payrolls.

Thanks Mike Green. $69 mil estimated for 2020. This includes $14 mil for Tulo.

Lindblom would, in isolation, be a nice value play for back half of the rotation. Like Shoemaker and Borucki (and, to a lesser extent, Anderson), Lindblom is another high-variance option, which makes sense for a rebuilding team. Unfortunately, we are really running out of room to fit in a bigger upgrade (Ryu, Hamels, Wheeler) if we sign someone like Lindblom. That would make the midseason starting depth chart look something like: *FA*/Pearson/Shoemaker/Lindblom/Anderson/Borucki/Thornton/Kay

That's a lot of cost-controlled starters stuck in AAA or the bullpen if the veterans remain healthy. Maybe you can trade one of the veterans when Pearson is ready to come up, but that would be a rebuilding-type move as well.

I don't really have a big problem with the strategy of seeing 2020 as another rebuilding year, with the big push for contention coming next off-season, but if that was the case, it would have been nice if the FO had spared us the bs about being much more aggressive in the FA market and having much more room to spend. Anderson/Lindblom is not exactly a big splash.

we should trade for a prime aged guy who would be likely to re-sign here.

like, say, that Marcus Stroman guy on the Mets.

"...with the big push for contention coming next off-season..."

I think we may have finally modify our definition of the term "big push" to align more closely with our FO's definition.

Zach Wheeler got $118m from Philadelphia.

Nelson only walked 48 in 175 innings in his breakout 2017 season. Nothing wrong with that. I like Gausman and Walker, both non-tendered, as well.

Wheeler's deal would work out to 5 years at $23.6 million per season if that $118 million figure is confirmed. He turns 30 shortly after the start of the season, so it covers his age 30-34 seasons. Probably won't look too good the last couple of years at that price. Apparently other teams offered even more, but his wife's home town is pretty close to Philadelphia, and that was the deciding factor.

Orioles trade Bundy to the Angels. Looks like Mattson is one name going back.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1202332711198834689?s=20

I'm sure many tires were kicked.

BREAKING: Jays put phone calls in on Pineda, Wheeler and Bundy.

Many productive conversations were no doubt had.

On a different note, the Braves have added Hamels on a 1/18m contract. Looks like a good move by AA.

Love the Hamels deal. I will always contend that in MLB, there is no such thing as a bad 1 year contract for a veteran pitcher with a decent track record. There's no salary cap and therefore no hard constraint or real opportunity cost to the deal. The only hit is to ownership's profitability.

That said, I'm not sure how excited I'll be about that 1 year Edwin Jackson deal that I feel the Jays are inevitably headed towards.

Apparently it's Hamels who wanted 1 year with higher AAV.

Bundy is kinda like Anderson. The Angels still need to get someone better.

Sources: Jays were this close

Source: What Jays fans lack in originality they make up for with repetitiveness.

Source: Jays in deep consultations with BJ Birdy. Looking for a replacement for Ace,  and they feel they know what Birdy can bring to the club.

@longleysunsport
#Bluejays GM Ross Atkins on the disastrous 2019 season: "We didn’t chose to have 2019 occur. That’s not what our vision was. Our vision was trying to do everything we could to extend that window with the parameters that we had."


Source: I just kinda feel bad for him now

That Atkins quote is just terrible. There are two possible interpretations: first, that Shapiro & Atkins thought the Jays were capable of contending in 2019; second, that ownership told them to try to contend and then didn't give them adequate resources to plug egregious holes in the team's construction.

If the first, then Shapiro and Atkins need to be fired, because that's just terrible judgement. If the second, Shapiro and Atkins still shouldn't be off the hot seat, because such a short-sighted strategy was a terrible decision and the baseball guys need to be able to tell ownership when a rebuilding year is inevitable.

There were more than average pitching injuries in 2019. That explains much of what happened. Hopefully, that will not be repeated anytime soon.

I always felt bad for Atkins!!

The rebuild started at the 2018 July 31 trade deadline IMO. The rebuild continues to this day IMO. The position players need more ML experience and the pitching prospects that are expected to contribute are still working their way through the minors.I expect the rebuild to continue in 2020 and 2021.

Also from R Longley:

"GM Atkins vows #Bluejays will be aggressive this winter, particularly in the hunt for starting pitching: "There’s not a free agent pitcher we haven’t touched base with. We have been aggressively trying to understand every opportunity and we’ll continue to do that."


BREAKING: Anthony Alford is now the longest tenured Blue Jay after the non tendering of Luke Maile (source Cespedes BBQ)

When you consider the payroll and the talent on our team the success is going to come from the cheap players.

The expensive players (highest salary category) are Tulo, Grichuk, C Anderson and Giles. The FO is working on acquiring cheaper vets I presume. Every vet I see is here as a bridge to the kids developing on their timeline.

Drury is a cheap vet. I expect a few more cheap vets.

I am confused by the surprise (by some) at the way this offseason has rolled out so far. At the beginning of the offseason the President of the team said that they weren’t going to be in on the expensive free agents. Surely four years of this FO has demonstrated their one overriding trait - risk aversion. I think this is all going according to plan. There can legitimately be a wide range of perspectives on whether “doing nothing” is a good or bad strategy right now, but there’s no room for surprise. Personally, I would be fine with the team doing nothing (and trying for another top 5-10 overall pick) or making some significantly risky moves (in salary or prospects) to try and compete. What I will object to, is the most likely outcome. A couple of signings of 5th starter types where the sole purpose will be to avoid sucking. What’s the point in that? It won’t move the needle in revenues or future prospects.

I do wish Atkins would just stop giving silly interviews. It just does not help.

Well said Nigel.

Sounds like bad news for Alford.

It would not surprise me in the least if in the offices of Shapiro/Atkins, there is at least 1 quote on the wall along the lines of: never underestimate the gullibility of the average sports fan..

People are surprised because:

a) has payroll every been this low before?

b) they promoted Biggio, Vlad and Bo when they could have waited until this year if they want to be risk averse and value hoarders

c) they don't have pitching or MLB caliber players at many positions with the strategy used last year

d) their plummet in fan attendance and TV ratings figures to hurt their bottom line

In short, there's many reasons why people expected something different this offseason

The front office does seem to like piling up mediocre depth (players like Drury, Richard, Jackson). Shapiro gave an interview earlier this year that seemed to suggest he thinks that because it can be so hard to predict when players will break out, it’s good to pile up (cycle through?) tons of players in a kind of large-scale sifting operation. And Atkins is on record saying that “depth is very important to us.” So their philosophy seems to be, in part, to accumulate many cheap players, even apparently mediocre ones (like Fisher), and then wait for the gems to eventually turn up.

Of course, they had an as-yet-undiscovered gem this year in Urshela, but jettisoned him too early.

The team as it is, with the young infield and Pearson up in May is much better than it was last year.
They should be at around .500 just by not selling at the deadline.

Guys with ERA+ around 100 might look like 5th starter types, but they're actually better than that.
Only Zack Davies had more innings pitched for the Brewers than Anderson.
He started 27 games and only picked up 4 losses.

There are many teams trying to sign those top free agent pitchers right now.
It's not a buyer's market.
Baltimore is tearing down even more and will be really bad.
Boston has the higher payroll in baseball. They might bounce back, but it's more likely that they'll be worse.
Tampa is not far from their historic highest payroll and will keep moving vets and promoting prospects.
The Yankees payroll is starting to get there and they might not score any top starter either.

Philies fans don't seem overlay impressed with the Wheeler deal and he was pitching in their division.
AA's making good moves, but they are really easy moves. It's like players are desperate to play for the Braves.

dalimon - I think you and I are talking about two different things. I understand and agree that all of those things (other than bringing up the prospects) argue in favour of a substantial investment of assets (salary or prospects) to try and compete. My point was that ownership/FO haven’t demonstrated through actions that they agree with that. I think ownership, being a public company, is overwhelmingly driven by what makes financial sense in the next few quarters. Bringing up the prospects last year actually made sense in that context because it helped near term interest in the product and the negative financial aspects of those decisions will be felt years down the road. Spending nothing on this team likely makes financial sense if your only focus is on 2020 financial results.

They have not and will not keep top prospects who are demolishing AAA down. That's just not going to happen.

Payroll is low because they have more young players then ever before. It's not a difficult concept.
This is exactly how Tampa gets good results with a low payroll, except the Jays can keep their players if they want.
Revenues are in line with the wins/losses. It's not a problem because the payroll is low.
I'm sure the pitching will be much better than people expect.
Both AAA and AA will be stacked with pitching. 

My expectation is that they move early and they move late.
The Chase Anderson deal was decent for an early move.
Now they have to wait until all the biggest spenders have make their moves.

I was an Expos fan and the payroll was always low.
Even in the early AA days, the payroll was higher just because they carried bad contracts.
And AA hardly ever signed free agents. Or first round draft picks.

The positive is that the team's recent drafts have been promising, and the FO has been acquiring a lot of interesting talent from Latin America.

The trades and free agent signings under Shapiro and Atkins have been a mixed bag: some good, some bad, a lot of meh.

At times FO seems muddled or indecisive or addled. It's unclear whether the obfuscating verbiage is significant or not, and if so, in what way.

The loss of Sanders and Cherington hurts. To what extent remains to be determined.

The spending restrictions imposed by ownership are a hindrance (note Atkins's recent use of the dreaded word "parameters"; excuse-making is always an ominous sign).

It could be worse, it could be better, expect 75-87 wins in many years to come, probably with some better seasons here or there eventually. Shapiro's stated philosophy about the postseason is "just get in"; not "assemble a dominant team" or "build a dynasty" or "aim for 100 wins." It's pretty evident by now to most of us what's going on. Nothing new under the sun.

"We have been aggressively trying to understand every opportunity and we’ll continue to do that"

What does this actually mean? Isn't this what every front office in baseball is expected to do, at a minimum?

Have the Jays really missed out on anyone? Cole and Strasburg is never going to happen. Wheeler got 5/118 from the Phillies, which was apparently not even the best offer he received but he chose Philly because of location. Chances are the Jays had no shot there unless they went above and beyond what may already be a significant overpay by the Phillies. Odorizzi accepted the QO, hoping to cash out in next season's FA market. Gibson signed for what I think is a reasonable 3/30, but going too far above that in order to entice him to come to Toronto would have made it a less desirable option for the Jays.

There are still a lot of free agents out there, both on the pitching and position player side. I suspect the Jays will end up going with the less expensive options when the dust settles, but it's far too early to judge the off-season.

In the end, the front office will be judged on results, not on whether they made this or that transaction. If the team plays .500 baseball, more or less, for the next decade, well, that will be the FO’s legacy.

Exactly. If they improve the team 15 wins this year but TB gets better with their prospects and the NYY sign Strasburg and Red Sox then guess what, we're still way behind.

The assumption that the team will improve organically, when they have lost a good number of their top contributors from last year, is a shaky one.

The Yankees had 14 players with OPS+ over 110, including scrubs like Urshela, Maybin and Tauchman.
A massive correction is needed here.

There's a bunch of guys in the outfield who could break out, certainly. Gurriel was the most improved player last year.
I just see Drury as a temporary filler.
It's the same with the pitchers. There are a lot of guys who could turn into something.
Including Merryweather, Luciano, Murphy, etc...

That means they're talking to agents and trying to figure out if players are willing to go to Toronto and how much money it will take to sign them. Obviously, not every team has contact with every free agent or trade targets. They did reach out to many of the guys who have signed so far, like Wheeler. Anderson was an opportunity that nobody here foresaw.

They're probably not going over 100M--Rogers control that. If they can't get a top pitcher, they might settle on a cheaper/higher risk starter, but then they'll see if they can spend the left over money on a position player.

They've also lost their worst players. Sanchez had an ERA over 6 and lost 14 games.
Brito, Hanson, Maile, were almost 2 wins under replacement value.
They lost Galvis, but Bichette is better
They lost Sogard, but there will be a handful of 2B left over in February if they want to improve the bench.
Guys like Hudson were not even with the team in February.

Replacing Stroman is what this is all about, but ultimately, that's Pearson's role.

The team has also downgraded from Smoak to Tellez.

I feel confident that they won't replace their better players they lost this year, but may indeed replace the worst ones.

"Agressively" pursuing information means texting agents AND sending them DMs.

According to fangraphs WAR last year:

CF 1.2
RF -1.0
LF 1.8
3B 0.9
SS 2.9
2B 3.2
1B 0.7
C 2.5
DH -0.4


SP 1.0 x 5 slots
RP 0.5 x 7 slots


So I guess we add a few wins at 3B based on vladdy improving. The other slots all look to me to be in the ballpark of expectations this year too, on average.

""Agressively" pursuing information means texting agents AND sending them DMs."

Liking their Insta posts.

There's several reports that the Jays are interested in Ryu.
The US media are puzzled that a non-contender would be giving money to a 32 year old.
Quite the contrast with the Toronto press.
Still, the Astros lost top pitchers each year, I don't see the problem there.

They are adding predictability to the rotation.
I expect the pen to be fine.

A lot of prospects should reach in 2022. That  could be the second coming.
Until then?

In 2020?
Maybe Smith gets untracked. Not likely..
Espinal should be up at some point.
Riley Adams could be up as the September catcher.
Some of those pitchers in the bottom of the top 30 list.

In 2021?
Kirk should start in Buffalo.
Maybe Conine gets there if he's an improvement over Grichuk.
Chavez Young could be a possibility in center.
Maybe Samad Taylor, if he breaks out.

Hopefully they add a stud in the June draft.

I don't expect them to play in the Rule V draft, but they do pick early.
They could gamble on a relief arm. It's just a bit of money.

I am expecting mediocre FA signings this off season. So far before the winter meetings next week we have added in trades and other methods C Anderson and A Bass. In previous years we added similar mediocre/decent players like A Diaz and Thornton because of 40 man issues that our trading partner had.

Grichuk was acquired in Jan 2018 when he became surplus to St Louis.

The above are 2 trading time phases as I see them. I expect us to do this again.

Valera and Urena cannot both be on the 26 man team for Opening day. Easily filled surplus IMO.

If the Jays looks good enough for 2023 they can trade for a good SP. Lets say Z Wheeler from the Phillies. Wheeler would have to be considered a good SP still for the Jays to acquire.If the Phillies are bad, he is salary relief for them. Other things, no trade clause or injured.

This being the off season we can wildly speculate. So 2 expensive years of a good Z Wheeler should cost us less in prospects than we got for Stroman because Stroman was good and cheap. Any thoughts?

yeah that's fair, Mike, but never forget that youngsters have a way of breaking your heart.



But i can't help but feel that this is why all that crap about not being able to sign big contracts 4 years ago annoyed me so much. Because I look at this team, I look at all the free agents, and I don't want any of them, because they're all pretty mediocre and will be overpaid, and we're not near good enough for them to make a real difference.

I would much, much, much rather be dealing with the overpaid carcasses of Price, EE, Donaldson right now, rather than overpaying most of the names I am hearing. And it would have made the last few years more fun, too.

Now here we are, and our FO is finally coming to the realization, 5 years later, that nobody wants to actually come play for a cheap losing team in canada.

I agree that 5 young players give you great odds of success. Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Gurriel and Jansen are 5. Another 5+1 would be McGuire, Tellez, Alford, Pompey, Fisher and McKinney. So we have groups of 5 covered.

Hopefully it works with pitching as well.

Regarding older players getting better Donaldson at 30 got better, Bautista and EE also got better at 30 or so and it continued for a few years. Personally I always thought it was just luck. But maybe instead of 5 we try a sample of 8. I will stick with Jays and allow time for development. Smoak, Drury, Sogard, Urshela, B Valera. Can't find 3 more. A Diaz, L Maile, A Hanson and S Brito don't count in this category IMO. So 9 sort of. Unfortunately we only have 2 of the 9 left. Maybe Drury follows in the footsteps of Donaldson, EE and Bautista. Crossing fingers for luck.

Michael Pineda back to the Twins.

I assume the Jays were "in on him".

I don't mind, don't get fussed about not signing failed drug test guys.

It will not be easy convincing any pitcher with other choices to come to TO and the AL East.

Let’s just assume, from here on out, the Jays expressed “strong interest” in all free agents. The Rogers media will happily report that the Jays were “in” on every desirable FA.

They also have interest in Tsutsugo. I think Tellez still has an option.

It’s interesting. The classic definition of “aggressive” in this context would seem to refer to outspending other bidders to land the player in question. The Jays front office seems to be trying to redefine it as “communicating a lot with the player’s agent about what it would take to sign the player.”

It’s interesting. The classic definition of “aggressive” in this context would seem to refer to outspending other bidders to land the player in question. The Jays front office seems to be trying to redefine it as “communicating a lot with the player’s agent about what it would take to sign the player.”

One can only imagine the joys of a quite cautious offseason under this front office.....

Can we just stop blaming everything on Rogers? It's perfectly fine to hold Shapiro and Atkins accountable for everything without ownership having to be painted as some evil corporate entity that's forcing the organization to field a poor team and cut expenses and throw the season away.

I am disappointed that the Jays didn't sign Pineda - I would have been willing to go to 3 years (3/30) and Pineda's suspension was reduced because he was able to prove that he wasn't using the hydrochlorothiazide as a PED making agent, so I wasn't that concerned about the failed drug test. A missed opportunity IMO.

Ownership controls the purse strings and decide what the budget is - I'd be surprised if there is a FO that is unwilling to spend if ownership provides the budget - Generally, I assume that lack of spending from any FO is because of the budget that ownership provides regardless of almost all FO saying publicly that they have enough to spend.

The thing that might hurt the Jays in their pursuit of pitching, aside from the normal factors (country, losing team, AL East) is more buyers. Not only do they have to contend with the usual suspects (Yankees, LA teams, etc), but now the Reds, Twins, White Sox, Padres, etc, are looking to buy as well, and all of those teams are likely in a better position to contend in 2020 than the Jays are. Shapiro has been consistent on his view of free agency, and with a FA market that seems to have reverted back to normal after a couple of down winters, the FO is either going to have to give out a contract that they will ultimately not feel comfortable with (i.e. an overpay) or try to find the bargains when the big boys sign elsewhere. The latter might have been the path they intended/expected to go anyway, but Atkins has been pretty vocal about being aggressive on pitching, so let's see what happens.

You just can't say that you will be aggressive on the free agent market and also refuse to pay "more than you are comfortable with".

That's just not being honest. The free agent market means overpay.p

https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1202821867553341440

Can we just stop blaming everything on Rogers? It's perfectly fine to hold Shapiro and Atkins accountable for everything without ownership having to be painted as some evil corporate entity that's forcing the organization to field a poor team and cut expenses and throw the season away.

I don't blame everything on Rogers. I lay blame at their feet for two things: the budget and missing JD's optimal trade window for fear of fan (read: attendance) reaction.

I don't blame Rogers for the Grichuk contract, for the FO's love affair with high K-rate outfielders, for missing on most of their big trade opportunities (looks like Stroman will work out at least) or for anything strictly transactional.

Unfortunately, budget is a huge factor of what drives roster decisions. It compels, for example, a willingness to trade down from an Edwin to a Kendrys. Or for chasing the Buchholzes and Schumakers of the FA market instead of the Keuchels or the Mortons.

Lots of blame to go around when our favourite team has been a combination of stingy and incompetent.

The Rays just saved some money and gained 2 years of control by trading Tommy Pham to SD for Hunter Renfroe.

Pineda would have been a pretty good signing. Great K:BB ratio. He'll be 31 next month. A 3-year deal for his age 31-33 seasons would not have been unreasonable.

Pineda was interesting given his age and upside. I'm surprised that he signed for what seems to be a very modest amount/years. Either he wanted to go back or there's something that depressed his value/market.

To that end, I'll take at face value the comments by Atkins that they're in seriously on every free agent. Money alone doesn't seal the deal. I've turned down - and have had prospective employees turn down - the highest dollar bid for a job in favour of closer to home/closer to winning deals. Wheeler was just that (in a different stratosphere).

As it stands, we need atleast one FA starter on more than a one year deal. Ryu and Keuchel are options. If not them, I'd far rather a flyer of T. Walker or Lindbloom then a Roark, Miley etc.

I would have been... okay with the Jays getting Pineda, but there are at least five better FA pitchers that the Jays should have a shot at.

Go get them. Ryu and/or Keuchel would be my preferred targets.

I am almost always intrigued by trades involving the Rays - while Pham can hit, I really like the Rays side of the deal - Renfroe is younger,cheaper,more control,better defense and more power which should spike in the small AL east parks plus a young upside prospect.

I was expecting the Pham trade. There's over 1 WAR of difference between him and Renfroe.
The prospect they got is lacking in power and they sent a different one back, who was hitting pretty well.

Pineda is going to miss about a month, and spring training, that usually leads to a difficult year.
Not a guy I wanted around, anyway.

There are quite a few teams desperate enough to overpay.
The Padres, who haven't won in ages, although they've handicapped themselves with some bad contracts, so are focusing on trades. The Reds, who have traded for a bunch of guys with 1 or 2 years of control and Votto's contract is starting to catch up with them. The Rangers with their new stadium. The Angels with Trout never getting to the playoffs, in part because of that crazy Pujols contract.

The Jays are trying to spend but they're trying to get their money's worth.
And many players need a huge overpay to play "in another country".
The Nationals are trying to sign both Rendon and Strasburg, but even though they have the money, the players don't seem in a rush to return to their fans.
That's how free agency is.

PEDS are a huge market depressant.
That's why Braun is basically untradeable.
AA got the milkman for cheap after he got busted and he had a horrible "clean" year.
Pineda will return in May and will likely get hit around while he catches up.

Wheeler had nice peripherals, but just average results and he was the #3 pitching behind DeGrom and Thor.
Can he anchor a staff? That's up in the air.
I wouldn't give away 125M (maybe more) plus pick forty-something-- which is great spot to sign a pitcher to sign him.
That pick could make it to the show before the new Jays core reach free agency.

I'd agree that "evil" is certainly not the proper term. I was going to suggest "incompetent", before settling on the more gentle "not nearly as competent as we'd like".

I don't know that they're evil, but their customer service is.

The free market is an auction.  Before you send your wife to an auction you better agree on how much she can spend on a given item.
This is the same thing.
Except worse because the "item" has an ownership bias.

I just don't think a publicly traded company like Rogers gives too much of a damn about the Blue Jays. I imagine they hire someone and say "make this profitable for less than $175 million." I don't think they have any say in who gets signed, for how long or signing big contracts.

To me, it's probably your job out the window if you spend $175 million and don't make the playoffs for a return on investment for ownership and that likely will explain why the GMs here always try to build a base first and then spend just to get them over the top which has never worked under Ricciardi, AA and so far Atkins.

So what does this mean if my imagining is correct? It means the criticism of Rogers should be the motto "make us profitable" vs "make the playoffs"*

They don't meddle in the business of day to day imho and Atkins/Shapiro should be grilled for not spending or taking on bigger salaries to better the team...especially now that salary is below $100 million.

*there's also the caveat that they likely don't make profit if they are as bas as they were last year in which case the office might as well sign players or aggressively trade to improve

I'm with dalimon. There's no way a corporate boardroom is requiring an immaterial division to return half of their revenue as profit. This is Shapiro wanting to create something 100% his own. (50% if he doesn't trade Vlad)

AYJ, were the payroll parameters a fiction of Anthopoulos' imagination?

I think it's fair to question the intentions of the franchise once FA is completed, rather than mid-stream. Was Pineda a target because people really liked him? Or are we at the point where we just want to see action?

Maybe it's Pineda, but I think it's the lack of action. If the Jays announced today they had signed Alex Wood, for example, projected to provide around the same WAR as Pineda for 2020, I don't think anyone would be overly upset on missing on Pineda. Wood is still out there.

I'm personally of the opinion that the current market suggests the Jays should sign three starters (Keuchel or Ryu, Porcello or Wood, and Roark or Miley), and there's no reason they can't still do that. If we end up in March without at least two competent or better starters added in FA, I'm all for grabbing the pitchforks. But I'm having a hard time getting worried about missing out on Pineda when others who I like as much or better are still out there.

Marte's intriguing in part because he's played at superstar levels before. The hope is that he can pull a Lorenzo Cain and get back to that point in the mid-30s. As opposed to hoping that Kevin Pillar (or someone like him) can get to a point they've never been before.

That said, I think the roster has enough guys in the Grichuk, Gurriel, Teoscar, Fisher level already (with the hope that the first two names are a little better than the last two). Honestly, if it's Marte or simply giving Alford or whomever the job, I'd probably prefer the latter, and spend the money on the rotation. You can find OF at the trade deadline easier.

I'm also still of the opinion that Manuel Margot makes a ton of sense for this team. The Padres (especially with the Pham trade now) probably don't really need him, and to me that's the sort of high-upside gamble it makes sense to take a swing at.

"I imagine they hire someone and say "make this profitable for less than $175 million." Dalimon

"It's always profitable- the only question is how much they make." - Mike Green


I don't know the business of baseball, Mike. Maybe it's not "make this profitable for $175 million" ... maybe it's "Make us at least $300 million profit with a budget limit of $175 million," that's what my point was...I think that the front office is the brakes more than ownership and I think it's because they don't know how to compete against big teams like the NYY and BOS.

Perhaps the deal for Atkins and Shapiro is something like this:

Spend up to $65 million and profit has to be $100 million
Spend up to $100 million and profit has to be $200 million
Spend up to $165 million and profit has to be $400 million
Spend up to $200 million and profit has to be $500 million

In a scenario like that most front offices will try to renovate the stadium to maximize revenue streams, rebuild the farm for consistency of competitiveness and then spend money when they feel there is the best chance of return on investment

The Jays SHOULD be interested in Marte. They do not have a major league viable CF on the team or in the upper minors. The market for major league viable CFs is a gaping hole. They need to fill that spot and can't do it through free agency so they need to look what is available in trade.

Pitching can still be corrected through free agency. CF can't.

Rogers isn’t a terrible owner by any means. Their problem is that they mandate the team be as profitable as possible in the short term. That directive often forces baseball decisions that aren’t good choices in the context of where the team is on the success curve (particularly at the extreme ends of the curve). I don’t believe Rogers meddles in many individual baseball decisions but I believe strongly (having worked with a publicly trade media conglomerate) that Rogers cares a great deal about the Jays profitability in 2020.

I don't see the purpose of Marte and his declining defence .

I don't see any need for interest in Marte and highly doubt that there is any. I also think it is borderline ridiculous to suggest that the Jays need to acquire 3 additional starting pitchers.

I think Rogers may demand that a certain player stay with the team. V Wells contract was P Godfrey. I don't know the owner at that time. Bautista was signed that last year by Atkins/Shapiro and I don't know if Rogers was insisting.

Donaldson stuck around because he was not traded earlier. I believe that Shapiro wanted to start the rebuild before 2018. What stopped him?

Payroll to profit is tricky IMO. Saying payroll $X has to produce Profit $X+ 40% ? may work or may not. The the payroll for Tulo, Martin and Donaldson in 2018 was $X and the profit may not even have broken even.

It seems that working for Shapiro is very desirable many baseball people are suggesting. Shapiro's team is getting poached. Cherington and Sanders for example.

So I cannot see things as clearly as some/many of you.

Atkins/Shapiro had an idea or had no idea as to how 2019 would turn out. There seemed to me to be close to twice as many bad player moves than good ones.

PeterG, I agree. I forget how long the list of interesting pitchers who are in full season ball through the majors is (Luciano is an easy name to forget when you're thinking about Pearson, Manoah, SWR, Kloffenstein, Pardinho and the rest).  The club could use one more pitcher, but whether they spend significant resources on a pitcher as opposed to, or in addition to, a corner IF and a centerfielder really depends on how things play out.

I agree that the Jays don't necessarily need 3 more starters, but I also understand the opposing argument. If they want to be competitive, certainly, they need at least 3 more, all better than what they currently have. If their goal is to challenge for .500, then they probably only need one or two more that are better than what they currently have. If the goal is simply to be better than last year, so around 70-75 wins, then they could probably do with adding one second-tier FA starter, and hoping for the best. Chances are there will be enough internal development that they'll improve on last year's record.

If the season started today, the Jays opening day starter would seem to be either Chase Anderson or Trent Thornton. Do either of those guys clearly crack the top 5 on any of the other teams in the division (not including the Orioles for obvious reasons)? Maybe the Yankees, as of today, but NYY are probably going to sign someone better before the offseason is over. Counting on anything from Matt Shoemaker is probably not wise. Waguespack, Kay, Zeuch, Borucki could all be MLB SP, but none have demonstrated that yet. To me, they all look like #5-#8 starter quality. Yet, as of today, that's at least 3/5 of a rotation (headed by Chase Anderson and Trent Thornton.)

So, in my mind, saying we don't need 3 more starters because we have the likes of Thornton, Anderson, Zeuch, Waguespack, etc, is just an admission that expectations are low. And that's fine if that's the case. On the other hand, adding 3 more actual MLB starters could make things interesting. The money is there, so why not? I personally don't think the incremental value of potentially having something worthwhile in Jacob Waguespack is worth another season in the wilderness.

As for the next generation, Pearson, Manoah, etc, none appear likely to break camp out of spring training. My personal view on "blocking" guys like that by having a rotation full of actual MLB arms is that it will never be a problem. If the prospects are pitching well, then they'll get a chance when injuries inevitably start to pile up. And anyway, having too much pitching is not a problem any team has ever complained about.

Let's assume that our top 5 right now are Shoemaker, Borucki, Anderson, Thornton and Waguespack. According to Fangraphs, there isn't a projected ERA below 5 amongst that group, and the top WAR projection is 1.4, shared by both Thornton and Shoemaker, projecting those two to combine for 310 IP (which seems optimistic to me).

I don't know what is possibly ridiculous about suggesting that in order to have a reasonable chance of playing meaningful baseball in August/September this year the team needs to have 3 of those 5 in AAA to start the year. There will be injuries, and we are talking about Borucki and Shoemaker who were hurt for most of last year already as 40% of that group.

Homer Bailey, of all people, is currently projected to earn more WAR than any of our starters. And I'd be terrified to rely on him as a number 3 in a good rotation.

To me, the rotation currently as constructed has 5 guys who should be no better than 4th on a contending SP depth chart. Hence the suggestion that 3 starters may be needed. If Kay or Pearson or Zeuch force their way onto the team, that's a great problem to have, and assuredly several of the "top 5" won't pan out.

If the argument is "2020 is a year early to spend money", I can live with that, but I personally don't see the team making anything resembling noise in 2020 without a significantly buttressed rotation.

MG, payroll parameters is pretty vague. I didn't see AA with a $45m squad though.

"If they want to be competitive, certainly, they need at least 3 more, all better than what they currently have."

Yup.

"My personal view on "blocking" guys like that by having a rotation full of actual MLB arms is that it will never be a problem."

100% agreed.

The best plan for 2020 is clearly to tank/rebuild/hope reclamation/prospects projects break out, the "core" players are clearly not good enough to justify adding several FA to try to compete for 500.
The Jays could get sign a top SP (Cole/Strasburg), position player (Rendon/Donaldson) and we would still finish 4th in the AL east behind the Yanks/Red Sox/Yankees.

It's true, ayj, that the payroll wasn't $45 million, but when it got close to the luxury tax threshold, Rogers brought in Shapiro (without waiting for the end of the year).  I'm pretty sure that Rogers would not be happy with a payroll regularly hovering around the luxury tax threshold even though that is what makes sense given the size of the market and the elasticity of attendance. 

Anderson and Thornton could start on almost any team....possibly Shoemaker and Borucki as well...maybe Kay. Many did not bother watching the post deadline part of the season and do not realize how well Thornton pitched. He had a mid 3's ERA his last 11 starts. Complete year numbers were distorted by a couple of horrid starts earlier in the year. He seems to have it together now and is definitely a top 3 imo.

As for competing, I don't think there is much thought in the baseball community, that Jays will be seriously competing for playoff spot in 2020. Short term moves would be foolish imo. It is rarely wise to change a plan in mid stream. For those who don't follow closely, allow me to advise that the Jays probably have more quality starting pitching in the system than at any other time in their history. The smart move is to simply wait for it while being as competitive as possible in the meantime. Team would be much better than 2018 edition with no additions whatsoever. FO is firmly entrenched and under no pressure to win now, at least not from their employers.

Didn’t Atkins say at one point that the Jays would eventually have a similar payroll to that of New York and Boston (once the Jays had built up their system)?

Maybe he was referring to the Rangers & Bruins?

I cannot get individual stats because the site is having problems. Guessing and memory fail me too often.

We were a contender in 1992 &93 and in 2015 and 2016. All really good teams. I will pick the 4th starter on each team. My 4th starter Key, Stott, Dickey? (Price #1?), Liriano? Key was definitely not a #4 in the Ace- #5 category of SPs.

Sticking to the Ace to #5 category. Ryu is a #1-#3 IMO. Our best current pitchers Anderson, Shoemaker and Thornton are #4 at best IMO. I will not judge the kids because of SSS.

No insult intended to anyone. I prefer category to list. I like a list of 8 SPs. With out Ryu I cannot come up with an 8th guy. Zeuch is it as 7th on the list. He has to fit into the Ace to #5 category for me. So a #4 if ERA is under 5.00 and maybe 80 IP.

Sanchez with an ERA of 3.00 is a #1. With his 2019 ERA he is probably a bad #5 because there is no #6 category. If I sounded bossy it is because I am ashamed and worried that I could not make a "mental" list of 8 pitchers. So I wrote out a list. I am 67 years old now. In my 30s when the Jays won in the 80s ( too young to know what was happening but enjoyed it). This rebuild is exciting for me and I am enjoying it but cannot understand the complexities of it.

Not sure you could keep Bichette/Vlad down much longer without running into serious credibility issues, but I get your point.

I personally think Cole and Rendon would also put the Jays into a competitive position, even if that probably isn't how I would allocate the resources. I still think 2-3 arms that add up to more projected WAR than Cole is the best approach. Worst case, you have way too much pitching. More likely, you have a competent rotation.

saying we don't need 3 more starters because we have the likes of Thornton, Anderson, Zeuch, Waguespack, etc, is just an admission that expectations are low...
As for the next generation, Pearson, Manoah, etc, none appear likely to break camp out of spring training. My personal view on "blocking" guys like that by having a rotation full of actual MLB arms is that it will never be a problem.

Firstly, a rotation that would be by June be something like FA1/FA2/FA3/Pearson/Anderson/Shoemaker/Thornton/Borucki/Kay is an appalling misuse of resources. That's at least three guys you would hope to reliable rotation arms who are forced out of the rotation. Kay is the ideal guy to fill in for an injury, not Thornton or Borucki, and with Zeuch and Reid-Foley also at AAA, there are decent options even further down the depth chart. At most we should be looking for two more FA starters, and probably just one more. Just one would give an opening day rotation of FA/Shoemaker/Anderson/Thornton/Borucki with Kay waiting in the wings. Injury or ineffectiveness would probably open up a spot by June for Pearson to fill in. That doesn't seem like thin depth for the starting rotation, considering the further presence of Reid-Foley, Zeuch, Hatch & Murphy in AAA. Obviously, I'd like to see a strong FA signing for the rotation; beyond that, I think the priority ought to be to improve the 1B situation.

Agree with Jevant and others here - we need LOTS of pitching. Might as well spend some $$ to get some this year. Pearson may not be Doc Gooden part 2 right out of the gate (i.e. he may need a season or two to fully settle in). VGJ, while having a good year for a rookie, etc, certainly didn't set the world on fire this year - OPS of 772. I understand that's good for a rookie, good for comparables, etc. And he might have a monster year this year. But, until he's done it, you can't COUNT on it.

Same with all the vaunted pitching prospects we have. Sure, someone said we have the best pitching prospects ever in our history. And they could turn out to be Doc Halladay part 2, or Deck McGuire part 2. And if they flounder, all of a sudden you have to sign 3 or 4 good pitchers for the last couple of years of the BBGGs contracts? Guess who'll be overpaying THEN, by record amounts? IMHO, better to amass some decent pitching now (and by decent, I don't mean bargain-bin castoffs that had a good year once - I mean, people who would be #2-3 starters on other teams), even if we overpay a little. You can always trade a starter that's pitching up to his contract when you have a young stud who's pitching just as well to fill other holes.

What if the BBGGs come out of the gate FLYING, Fischer and Grichuk are back to their "good" levels, Jansen/McGuire start hot and we have the same monster offense we had in 2015? And then we have team ERA of 6.2? As someone said - none of our starters is projected to be below 5. If we have ANY hope of contending, we need at least 2 to have a projection of "good", IMHO.

The last time the Jays had a good rotation was in 2016.
The fangraphs predictions (ZIPS) vs actual results: (I'll use bWAR).

Dickie was predicted at 2 WAR but was worth 0.4 and was left out of the playoffs.
Stroman was predicted at 2 WAR but was wroth 1.4.
Estrada was predicted at 2 WAR but was worth 3.6
Happ was predicted at 1 WAR but was worth 4.5
Hutchison was predicted at 1 WAR but Sanchez and Liriano took his spot for 5 and 0.7 WAR.

The upside is usually in the young guys.

The starting pitchers that finished the season had post deadline ERA in mid to high 4 area which equates to quality start territory. Pitching numbers across MLB, especially in AL, are not what they used to be. Even without adding Anderson, Shoe, Borucki, the available starters would not have ERA's any where near 6 or over. Posters need to be somewhat realistic in posts if they want to be taken seriously.

My above remarks pertain to the starters who finished the season and excludes SRF who pitched some in August but not September. Obviously, his numbers would drag down the total but I assume it is not relevant as he is not being considered for 2020. He has much to prove at AAA level before getting another opportunity.

I guess what is realistic is in the eye of the beholder. I think it's realistic that one or maybe even two of Shoemaker, Borucki, Waguespack, Thorton, Kay and Zeuch could put together 150 innings of league average performance. There might even be a small upside of something better than that. To count on four or more of them doing that seems wildly unrealistic to me.

Chase Anderson has been worth 1.5 WAR total over the past two years. He was good in 2017, and there's upside there too, but he's far from a sure thing. Something around last year's performance (better than 2018, but not as good as 2017) seems quite realistic to me. I don't think that's being overly cynical or pessimistic. And if that's a reasonable expectation from your #1 or #2 starter, the season is probably not going to be very fun.

Anyway, this is a discussion about how many extra arms they should add this off-season. I agree that it would be wise to wait to make a judgment on the admin's performance until March.

I am not sure that there is any staff in the AL where all 5 regular starting pitchers are at or above league average performance.

I would be very surprised if Shoemaker, Anderson, Borucki, Thornton and Waguespack all had ERA's over 5.00. Looking at BRef, they project Shoemaker at 4.21, Borucki at 4.44, Anderson at 4.12, Thornton at 4.70, and Waguespack at 4.50. Add a decent free agent, and promote Pearson in May or June, and you've got a good group. Plus whomever among Zeuch, Merryweather and Kay might take a step forward, and there is the vast horde in the mid level minors knocking on the AAA door which could yield a 2nd half starter, guys like Murphy, Castillo, Diaz, Hatch, Murray, Perez, SWR, Winckowski. They may also find somebody in the Rule 5 - they have a high pick and there are some interesting looking starters available who could challenge for a spot.

I find it hard to see Marte as a CF at this point. If the Jays needed a corner OF, I'd like to get him, but the cost is probably going to be pretty high for a strong hitter with 2 more years of a reasonable contract.

How about Cole Calhoun as a FA acquisition? His OPS plus suggests than he is a better than average offensive player who can play corner OF and possibly some 1b.

I guess what is realistic is in the eye of the beholder. I think it's realistic that one or maybe even two of Shoemaker, Borucki, Waguespack, Thorton, Kay and Zeuch could put together 150 innings of league average performance. There might even be a small upside of something better than that. To count on four or more of them doing that seems wildly unrealistic to me.

The fact I'd entirely forgotten about Waguespack does illustrate how deep the rotation depth does actually go. You certainly don't want to be relying on Waguespack or Reid-Foley or Zeuch, but just as there's downside risk on pitchers, you can also hope for some upside performance among the guys we will have stored in AAA (or possibly in the bullpen, in Waguespack's case).

I see the case for two more FA starters, but we should remember that 2020 is a building season. We should be trying to sort out who might be longer-term contributors: Borucki gave us half a season of #3 starter performance in 2018 - can he replicate or get close to that? Thornton was a solid #4 in his debut season - can he improve at all? Is there a starter future for any of Kay, Zeuch, Merryweather, Reid-Foley, Waguespack? Signing three starters means there's a real risk very few of these questions get answered, which is a problem for a team that has to figure out which of its assets can contribute to a championship team.

Can we just stop blaming everything on Rogers? It's perfectly fine to hold Shapiro and Atkins accountable for everything without ownership having to be painted as some evil corporate entity that's forcing the organization to field a poor team and cut expenses and throw the season away.
I don't blame them for everything. Well, ok, I blame a lot of stuff on Shapiro/Atkins, who are Roger's chosen leaders, so I guess I do blame Rogers for everything :-)

You got an owner that loves to be cheap, and a slick salesman who sold them tales of winning on a budget.

They're made for each other.

Teams have won and lost with all sorts of budgets - while large budgets gives you more options, it's not a panacea for winning.

I suspect the winning will be infrequent in Toronto under a modest budget and an approach that tries to always maintain that mediocre (but profitable?) sweet spot of 78-84 wins. You can win sometimes on a modest budget with brilliant management that focuses its brilliance on winning (TB, Oakland, St. Louis) as opposed to trying to maintain adequacy for extraneous reasons.

Looking at BRef, they project Shoemaker at 4.21, Borucki at 4.44, Anderson at 4.12, Thornton at 4.70, and Waguespack at 4.50. Add a decent free agent, and promote Pearson in May or June, and you've got a good group

I don't consider myself the low man on any of these pitchers. However, I'm sorry, but I don't understand how you can say that a rotation of, say, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, Ryan Borucki, Chase Anderson and Trent Thornton/Nate Pearson is a "good group," either from a performance or health perspective.

I don't think that statement is really accurate. When AA was going for it and traded for Price and Tulo, the money was there to do it. As some here have said, the top free agents aren't coming to a rebuilding team in a different country and it doesn't make sense at this time to overpay them to do it.

I may be in the minority but I believe in what the front office is doing. Build a strong farm system, develop your own stars and when the time is right in two or three years, trade some prospects for a player the team needs or sign a good free agent who will want to come to a winning team. I don't see the Jays going the Tampa Bay route and Toronto is a far better baseball town. The Rays had a winning team last year and there were still only friends and family in the stands. In Toronto, the more the team wins, the more fans show up in the stands. Despite the years of mediocrity between the championship years and the last playoff run, I don't think this is what the current regime is aiming for. Time will tell.

P.S. My remarks were directed at Greenfrog's statement, not Thomas's. I'm just a slow typer.

The Rangers are signing Jordan Lyles for 2/16M which should take them out of the starter market.

Cleveland was able to develop good pitching and lots of them came from picks no earlier than the third round.
Kluber, Clevinger, Biber, Civale, etc...

Phillippe Aumont will try to crack the rotation. He was the pitcher of the year in the CanAm League.
His problem was the walks and he appears to have that under control.

Rule 5 draft.

Next Thursday, following the winter meetings which starts tomorrow.

The Jays might be best served by treating Alford as their rule 5 pick.
Otherwise, they could gamble on a reliever.

I see BA has a feature on the best draft candidates, but I'm not a member.

I’m sorry but the highest correlation with winning in MLB is budget - nothing else comes close.

I could support a “do nothing” off season. But if so, the the team needs to acknowledge that 2022 is the real window. The only prospect reasonably likely to make a significant impact in the next two years is Pearson. The rest of the impact prospects will likely arrive in 2022. The current Vladdy/Bo wave doesn’t have enough bodies to really be competitive without signing FAs or trading some of the 2022 cohort. So, the “do nothing plan” should include dealing Giles, taking on a rotting carcass or two (eg Price) and getting prospects to do so and banking another top 5-10 prospect in the draft. As a fan, that wouldn’t be my choice, nor do I think it necessary, but that’s a defensible plan.

And remember, a successful low budget team like Tampa is still one of the most aggressive teams, making the boldest moves.

Not the sit and wait approach we have here.

The boldest moves are getting fans and current team members upset.
They trade everybody before they get expensive
Obviously, you can't wait too long for trades or you trade partner will fill his need somewhere else.
Tampa  won 68 games in 2016 and then 80 in 2017.
That's exactly what the Jays are trying to do.

I really like Dan Shulman and Kevin Barker. I find they are honest and tell what they believe rather than make up stuff and use psychology on their audience.

I also like Ned Colleti as a knowledgeable baseball mind. From him on the Jeff Blair show he spoke about the Top 100 prospect list as having some bias.
1) We all know that many failures get on the list. Injury or poor performance results in their failure.
2) The list makers have teams that they are friendly with. So they give higher ranking to those team's prospects. N Syndergaard was a great example of moving a dozen or so spots higher right after becoming a Met. Maybe the new ranking was more accurate since he worked out well.
3) So the #50, 60 and 70 prospects on the list are not that different.

Shapiro gets away with being honest IMO. He said that SPs and Closers are the most difficult to develop. Also honest and smart enough to say that once the team wins 90 games then he will make big moves. He did not give details of what a big move is.
IMO 90 wins is still a work in progress so no big moves yet.

IMO Atkins does not get away with being honest. "42 years of control" was too complicated to be properly understood by the media. Those who could not understand then passed on their lack of understanding to a trusting fan base.
Saying Vlad is not a ML player early in 2019 was a statement that Atkins knew was wrong. I really hope he knew that it was wrong. At least I think it was wrong. Keeping Vlad down for an extra year of control should be understood by all media and all knowledgeable fans. But the media can become popular with their not knowledgeable fans by feeding them "Vlad was ready last year".

ISLAND BOY, I don't think you are necessarily in the minority - I certainly agree with what you say. I like the approach the front office has, although I think they have some issues with talent evaluation at the big league level and they do seem slow to adjust their thinking on players.

As to Rogers and their willingness to spend, they have shown in the past that they are willing to spend, and I expect that they will do so again. I don't believe that they are going to try to maintain a low payroll, nor do I believe that they want the team to only win 78-84 games a year. They may be wanting to see the team start to perform at a higher level before they approve a much higher payroll. I would certainly like to see the payroll move up quickly, but overpaying for free agents in their 30's and ending up with bad contracts that cripple your financial flexibility in the future is not the way to build a team. Adding the right necessary players at the right time, sure you overpay for a player or two then.

On the Guerrero front, he spent time  on the IL the last 2 years which contributed to delaying his arrival.
The fans were expecting the #1 prospect to come up to the show and rake and that didn't happen.
So, in hindsight, Atkins was absolutely right. Guerrero wasn't ready for the majors.
Hopefully he's ready next time and it makes a big difference.

There are still some people who think Guerrero will be a 50-60 HR hitter.
His swing produces line drives, so that's not likely to happen.

I am looking at the big picture concept.

Halladay played about 10 years for us. I cannot get the site that gives that info. Stroman played 6 years including the injured 2015 year. We successfully extended Romero to a long term cheap deal. I know it was bad.

So we need to have our stars stay.

G Stanton hit 59 Hr in 2017. M Trout is great and has an equal bb/k rate over the last 4 seasons. Both have been weak in the playoffs. J Soto in his short career has been great in regular season and the playoffs. Stanton and Trout are very expensive. If we have players like that going forward I don't know if we can keep them.

Grichuk is not in that category.