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The old thread is getting a bit long so time for a new one, plus the winter meetings start tomorrow so a perfect excuse too!

MLB has a summary of key needs for each team - it will come to no shock that they list starting pitching as the Jays key need.
The schedule of events shows the event is at Hilton San Diego Bayfront from December 8th to 12th. 

Main things are....
  • Modern Era Hall of Fame class announced: Dwight Evans, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Marvin Miller, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Ted Simmons, and Lou Whitaker to be voted on tomorrow.  C'mon sweet Lou.
  • Rule 5 draft - occurs on Thursday December 8th <edit - it is the 12th...I knew it but typed in the wrong thing>
  • Free agents galore and trade talk up the wazoo.
Always interesting, hopefully the Jays do something interesting and good during it this year. 

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ISLAND BOY - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 08:06 AM EST (#383670) #
The Rule 5 is on Thursday, December 12. ( sigh ) I'm such a nitpicker.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 11:00 AM EST (#383673) #
I predict Rays make a bold move and trade Kiermaier.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 11:14 AM EST (#383674) #
Hyun-jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Josh Lindblom...I actually don't like any of those pitchers for this team.

Since there's a slim chance of signing Madbum, I wish for the holidays that this front office traded some depth or prospects for some starting pitching. I don't mean take on bad contracts and trade a prospect, I mean trade for a better Chase Anderson or a good #2-3 Starter and give up a decent prospect where you have depth.

Then spend your FA $ on position players.

PeterG - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 11:20 AM EST (#383675) #
Ab article in a Japanese publication reports that 4 teams are interested in Tsutsugo with the Jays considered the front runner.
scottt - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 12:07 PM EST (#383676) #
Ryu was second in Cy Young voting. What's not to like?
Keuchel is a lot like Stroman. However, he's a positive veteran presence whereas Stroman was almost disruptive.
Stroman was displeased that the Jays did not lock him up long term and was very vocal about it.
Keuchel didn't make any noise when he was just offered a QO, but his agent wasn't able to get him a deal last year.
So it's a given that he would not have signed a team friendly extension.

Porcello seems over the hill to me. He's probably not interested in pitching against Boston, New York and Tampa.

Roark and Wiley are in the same ballpark as Anderson. I'd rather roll the Dice with Thornton, or another young arm.

Teheran is interesting. Maybe just good enough to rank ahead of Anderson and Shoemaker.

Lindblom is a gamble. Could be fairly cheap. If they go that route, they need to add a bench bat for sure.

Madbum goes to a contender, not to a rising team. I'm pretty sure of that. 

scottt - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 12:10 PM EST (#383677) #
Not sure. At 10M a year, Kiermaier does not have a lot of surplus value. He didn't get on base much last year and was only worth 2.4 WAR. They could move him, but I see that more as a salary dump move if they're out of the race at the deadline.
ayjackson - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 12:13 PM EST (#383678) #
"An article in a Japanese publication reports that 4 teams are interested in Tsutsugo with the Jays considered the front runner."

OMG this is the most exciting offseason Jays news in some time!!

What's a Tsutsugo?
PeterG - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 12:25 PM EST (#383679) #
Slugging 28 year old Yoshitomo Tsutsugo of the Yokohama Stars has been posted and must conclude a deal by December 19. He can also play a little 3rd and OF but primarly a 1b, DH. That is old news. Today, an article posted from Japan suggests that Jays are the front runner for his services.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 01:29 PM EST (#383680) #
Ryu is probably the best of the bunch with Keuchel behind. The rest are just a waste with all of the depth the Jays have.

I like the rumour that has us in on Tsutsugo. That makes sense. As far as the offseason goes, I already consider the goals failed since the GM went out on record stating his #1 goal was to sign free agents starting pitchers and telling everyone how aggressive he would be.

The more I look at this offseason the more I think the Jays blew a great chance to get a younger SP in Jake Odorizzi who according to Shi Davidi was considering the Jays because of his relationship with Charlie Montoyo but declined to test free agency because the offer wasn't strong enough in terms of $$$. If they would have signed him to an above market deal, lost the draft pick compensation then go out and trade for Anderson, sign Tsutsugo then their off season at this point would look like this:

SP Odorizzi
SP Anderson
SP Thornton
SP Shoemaker
SP Kay

Waiting in Minors: Pearson, SRF, Waguespack, Merryweather...

Then they could go out and get a Ryu and things get really interesting.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 01:35 PM EST (#383681) #
Excuse me Beauxites...that last post was initially planned to be a lot longer...I thought I could paint a very nice picture of Jays management saving this season and being competitive...but once I finished a projection for the rotation and moved to the line up and penciled in the names, especially 1B and just looked ugly and I cut the post short.

Still think this team has a long ways to go. 2021 maybe...maybe if SWR, Groshans, Pardinho, Manoa all pan out and in that best case scenario you will still need to sign some bats, you won't have Giles and you will be half way through Bichette, Biggio and Vlad's timeline...
PeterG - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 02:10 PM EST (#383682) #
Who is to say that the timeline of Vlad, Bo and Cav will not be much longer than 6 years. I am sure this is part of the the FO plan.

I think some must have missed Atkins comment last week that the Jays would not be spending big on a pitcher.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 07:17 PM EST (#383683) #
The Yankees are reportedly preparing a 7/245m offer to Cole ($35m annually). I would have no problem with the Jays offering up to 7/266m ($38m annually) to land him.

The team can afford it. Having Cole and Pearson at the top of the rotation would be perfect for the next half-dozen years. (As an ancillary benefit, consider what Pearson would gain from being Cole's teammate as he starts his major-league career).
John Northey - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 10:30 PM EST (#383684) #
HOF Vote is in for the 'Modern Baseball Era' and they picked 2 good ones in Marvin Miller (long overdue) and grossly underrated Ted Simmons, but screwed up on 2 who really, really deserve to be in with Lou Whittaker (6 votes 37.5%) and Dwight Evans (8 votes 50%) while Dave Parker (7 votes) and Steve Garvey (6 votes...must have been drunk) also did well.  Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson, and Dale Murphy all got 3 votes. or fewer.

How Alan Trammell can be in but not Lou Whittaker is beyond me.  Whitaker has 5 more WAR, is 7 points higher in OPS lifetime, I hesitate to mention how Trammell is white and Sweet Lou isn't however, outside of Trammell having that great year that should've got him an MVP (1987) I can't see why one is in and the other isn't otherwise.  Trammell did have more 5+ WAR years (6 vs 4) but also had 2 negative years (first and last) while Lou only had a negative his first year (Trammell held on one extra season and had a 34 OPS+).  Guess Whitaker was too consistent for voters.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 10:41 PM EST (#383685) #
I don't think $40 million/year gets him here. I don't think $45 million/year gets him here.

Toronto is like the Winnipeg of the NHL. Great place to play but not until you somehow end up there.

We can overpay for free agents, but not the best they just won't come when your trending downwards...
John Northey - Sunday, December 08 2019 @ 11:09 PM EST (#383686) #
7 years at $35+ mil a year seems nuts to me for a pitcher.  The risks are so high with pitchers that it wouldn't take much for that to flop badly.  Cole has 3 years of great results, including the past 2, but also has a 2.7, 1.5, 1.2, and a 1.3 year.  All pitchers are one throw away from having their career end - when that magic pitch happens is a mystery until it happens.  Sometimes it is super-ugly like with Dave Dravecky, sometimes it comes after decades like with Nolan Ryan, often it happens before we ever heard of a kid.  The Yankees can paper over a $35+ million a year contract with little trouble, but I doubt the Jays can.  That is too big a risk imo.  FYI: FanGraphs WAR has him worth $40+ mil just those 3 times, but always over $10mil.  So he wouldn't be a nightmare if he went backwards but I just don't like 7 year deals for anyone unless it is a hitter under 25.
dan gordon - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 12:09 AM EST (#383687) #
John, I agree about Cole. People have short memories. Two years ago, people were wondering what was wrong with Cole, and asking why he wasn't pitching all that well. His numbers for 2016 and 2017 combined: ERA 4.12, FIP 3.81, 330 hits allowed in 319 innings, with 294 strikeouts. Not exactly somebody you want to be paying $35 million a year to. Maybe he has figured something out since then, who knows, but now somebody is going to give him that much a year for 7 years, from age 29 to age 35? I smell another potential albatross contract in the works.
scottt - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 07:20 AM EST (#383688) #
I don't have a problem with the Jays going 9 or 12 years, but that's just not going to happen.
The average car loan in Canada is 7 years, but I cannot bring myself to go past 5 and I'd rather go 4 if I can
So, I can't really complain about what the Jays are doing.

With all the money coming off the Pujols contract soon and the Yankees already in luxury tax territory, I can't imagine the Angels not being able to outbid the Yankees. Boras will keep this thing up until pitchers are ready to report.

As for the Jays, can they win the Ryu sweepstakes?

Mike Green - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 08:34 AM EST (#383689) #
I'd spend 7 X $35 M for Cole.  I've looked at his comps based on his previous 2 years, and over his career.  Either way, 7 X $35M seems to me to be almost exactly value for money over the regular season.  In the playoffs though, the value of your top 5-6 pitchers is much higher.  And there's a decent chance that you will get a couple of seasons where he is one of your top 5-6 pitchers.  It looks like 7 X $35M won't get it done anyway...

I wouldn't have given the 7 X $31M contract to Price when he was on the market, and I said so at the time.  So far, Price has given the Sox 11 WAR over 4 seasons and will probably end up being worth about 18 WAR over the contract.  But he did give them a good post-season in 2018, and that will make the contract into a so-so one.

FWIW, I have Cole and Rendon at about the same value over the next 7 years.  Cole has more upside and downside (his best comp perhaps is Lefty Grove, who was just about to put up a 10 WAR season, but he could equally well develop arm trouble and flame out).  I'm pretty sure that Rendon will be a very good player over the next 3 years, and a good one for years after that. 
Jonny German - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 09:06 AM EST (#383690) #
PeterG, I did not see Atkins saying they won't spend big on a pitcher. Can you confirm that? Also interesting in confirmation that Tsutsugo still plays first base - BBRef only has fielding information for him through 2017, and they show him not playing first base since 2014.
PeterG - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 09:46 AM EST (#383691) #
Can't give you a link but he definitely said it. Of course, it depends on what is being defined as big. Might have just meant that they are out on Cole, Strasburg or that it includes Ryu, Keuchel Baum as well. I got the impression that it included all of those 5 but this is no doubt a fluid situation.

Regarding Tsutsugo, here is one of several articles referring to him as a 1b/lf:
bpoz - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 09:51 AM EST (#383692) #
Cole has had 5 200+ IP seasons in the past 6 years. If he can repeat that in the next 6 years then he is probably worth his contract.

Donaldson had 4 V good years over the past 5 so we got good value. Ownership chose to pay big $ for the 1 bad year. Their reasons were acceptable to me. Unknowns and chance are a big part of baseball IMO. N Evoidi's 4 year contract had some risk based on his injury history 150+ IP was achieved only twice.
uglyone - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 09:57 AM EST (#383693) #
I still don't understand how the FO could have spent their first 4 years trading everything for "MLB-ready young pitching" and still be relentlessly targeting mediocre mlb SP as their highest priority now.
Nigel - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 10:45 AM EST (#383694) #
Shapiro said they wouldn’t be in on any of the top FA pitchers as part of his year end media wrap.
bpoz - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 10:49 AM EST (#383695) #
I agree with you UO. But I would add that mediocre MLB non pitchers were also added.

The list is long of position players added. Mediocre A Hanson and S Brito. Mediocre is probably being kind on my part. Good players would be A Diaz, Grichuk. and F Galvis. There are categories above and below my examples.

E Jackson was a terrible pitcher. I cannot think of a comparable position player. All $ cheap at least.
bpoz - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 11:05 AM EST (#383696) #
Thanks Nigel.

IMO Shapiro was wise to use the term top FA pitchers. There are many categories below top. A lower category IMO is lousy FA pitchers. Neither Shapiro, Atkins or the media use adjectives like lousy. It is unnecessary because baseball people and most Bauxites can conclude the results of lousy. Quite often even before the event occurs.
DH - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 11:10 AM EST (#383697) #
Assuming the Jays strikeout on Ryu, would the Dodgers lineup on a Pollock + Maeda trade?
cascando - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 11:16 AM EST (#383698) #
I don't have a problem with the team deciding, as a matter of strict policy, that they're going to stay away from 7+ year contracts to FA pitchers. Most of those are going to be poor return on investment. Of course I wish now that they had signed Scherzer to a big money deal, but just because that worked out doesn't mean the next one isn't a bad bet.

While they have the payroll space though, there's no excuse in my mind not to go after guys like Ryu who probably don't need much term. Even if Ryu gets hurt in the first year, I'd much rather see the extra payroll money go toward an attempt to make the team more competitive/interesting/fun.

And as I said in the other thread, I see virtually zero downside to moving guys like Waguespack, Shoemaker, Thornton and Zeuch down the depth chart. They'll likely get plenty of opportunity anyway, given how fragile modern SP are.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 11:19 AM EST (#383699) #
Calling Socrates Brito mediocre was indeed kind, bpoz. He had 3 hits in 39 at bats for a .077 AVG. To be fair, he had decent numbers at Buffalo but as a major league player he was definitely in the Edwin Jackson terrible category.
bpoz - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 12:07 PM EST (#383700) #
The early birds will all be there by Feb 1 I assume. Their personal/private workouts will start in early Jan I believe.

If S Brito is on the Jays ML team anytime before Aug1 then I am assuming that the FO likes his tools which are good. He plays all OF positions well, has speed and can catch the ball. He turned 27 in Sept so he could put things together in 2-3 seasons. Whoever has him on their AAA team when that happens will have been lucky to get a useful ML player.
GabrielSyme - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 12:45 PM EST (#383701) #
I see virtually zero downside to moving guys like Waguespack, Shoemaker, Thornton and Zeuch down the depth chart. There's a world of difference between Shoemaker and Thornton on the one hand, and Zeuch and Waguespack on the other. Shoemaker, over his career has been an above-average starter when healthy. Thornton was a solid #4 starter in his first year in the majors. Neither is going to front a rotation, but you are just wasting talent if you push either of them out of the rotation entirely. Down the depth chart is fine for Shoemaker & Thornton- out of the rotation doesn't make much sense. On the other hand, Waguespack doesn't throw particularly hard, and hasn't had a sub-4 ERA in the minor leagues since high-A; he has much more to prove before earning a spot in the rotation. Zeuch is even more marginal - he doesn't get strikeouts, and his results in AAA were pretty mediocre.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 12:45 PM EST (#383702) #
"Assuming the Jays strikeout on Ryu, would the Dodgers lineup on a Pollock + Maeda trade?"

Those are the exact type of trades where I hope the Jays get some deals done. Take on salary, don't ask for any prospect back and don't give up any prospect. Just pure salary relief from the Dodgers so they can go spend the new money on better players.

Anybody else think there's still something left in Votto's tank to take that contract off the Reds hands?

Tellez, Kevin Smith, SRF for Joey Votto and Hunter Greene
rpriske - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 12:53 PM EST (#383703) #
Apparently Bumgarner is asking for 9 figures. I assume all need to be to the left of the decimal.

Pollock & Maeda would be great... but it would also be very costly.
Jevant - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 01:29 PM EST (#383704) #
If the Jays were willing to increase payroll significantly, that is a no-brainer move for the Jays (basically giving up spare parts for an excellent prospect and a terrible contract).
Jevant - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 01:32 PM EST (#383705) #
Pollock and Maeda shouldn't be that costly, especially if the Dodgers add someone like Rendon or Cole or Strasburg.

Not sure an aging AJ Pollock on the turf is the solution to the CF problem, however.
Ducey - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 01:46 PM EST (#383706) #
I have not commented in a few years, so here goes.

1) No to a Votto trade. He will be 40 at the end of that contract and will take playing time/ money away from guys like Cavan and Vlad in a few years. He has a full no trade anyway. He is not coming to TOR. He is beloved in CIN.

2)Seems to me that the smart play was to meet with Odorizzi this year, express interest, and then circle back next season when they will have more of a track record and no draft pick penalty. If the Twins try and extend him, that conversation could be key.

3) I am in the camp that does not mind if the Jays dont pursue any big fish starters this winter. Another couple of pitchers from the Shoemaker tree is good for me (guys with some upside). This summer is still about development - there is hope surrounding the infield players, but a ways to go before they establish themselves once and for all (can they continue to make adjustments?)

4) $35 million / 200 innings = $175,000 an inning. Yikes.

5) Brito was a flier. Worth a shot the same way EE and Jose were. The guy he was traded for (Orozco) has some OBP skills but OF with no power are unlikely to make it.

6) Give me a couple more trades following the Liriano plan. Take on salary, rehabilitate, then trade for assets.

7) Seems the pressure on the Jays to "do something" this week does not match well with Bora's tendency for brinkmanship up to/ into spring training. So don't get your hopes up. That's assuming that the Jays are able to do anything with Boras anyway. Not a long history of good relations there. Boras likes to bypass the GM and speak to the owner. That's not happening here.
bpoz - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 01:50 PM EST (#383707) #
I see our position player core as Vlad, Bo, Biggio and Gurriel. They and Grichuk have to get as many ABs as they can handle/are available for.

Still young but unproven for being members of our young/cheap core are Jansen, McGuire and Tellez. They need ABs to show if they are worthy.

I think the FO will find a way to give 500+ ABs to T Hernandez in hopes that he develops.

After Drury gets his Arb he would play a lot all over the field IMO as a backup.

Adding to a quality bench which already has Drury would make the team stronger for covering demotions, injuries etc... This strategy would mean casting aside a few out of options players like Urena and Fisher.
cascando - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 02:17 PM EST (#383708) #
There's a world of difference between Shoemaker and Thornton on the one hand, and Zeuch and Waguespack on the other.

The reasons for not counting on them might be different, but I think they all deserve an equal amount of skepticism when it comes to holding down a rotation spot. Shoemaker, for well documented reasons (mostly his IP totals of 28.2, 31, and 77.1 over the last three seasons.) As for Thornton, there is clearly some enthusiasm for him here, and maybe it's because I didn't pay close attention in September when he was actually good, but his ERA went over 5 in early July and mostly stayed there until his last start of the season. I'm not suggesting they cut him, but I don't think it would be wise to count on very much. Again, as I've mentioned before, I think Thornton could be a very effective RP.

For the record, here is what Atkins (in his usual non-committal way) said about Shoemaker, Thornton, and Borucki:

“Matt Shoemaker, Ryan Borucki and Trent Thornton are in a similar category that they could make up one or two spots, depending on the rest of our offseason,” general manager Ross Atkins said. “They might even make up three depending on this offseason.”
Mike Green - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 02:53 PM EST (#383709) #
I don't see a world of difference between Thornton and Zeuch.  Thornton had an ERA of 4.84 in 154 innings at age 25 (he's almost exactly 2 years older than Zeuch).  My own opinion is that if you gave Zeuch the ball 30 times in 2019, he'd end up with about the same ERA (and maybe a little better) and would throw more innings.  Zeuch struck out very few in triple A, but was  effective in obtaining ground balls and as a result had a good ERA.  Given the rabbit ball in triple A last year, keeping the ball on the ground was a pretty good strategy. 

Subjectively, if you ask me who is likely to be a good pitcher in 2021, I'd prefer Zeuch to Thornton.  Zeuch was a first round pick, so he may very well get the chance to prove it. 
Mike Green - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 02:55 PM EST (#383710) #
Correction: if you gave Zeuch the ball 30 times in 2020...(not 2019).  The decade is almost over, Green.
rpriske - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 03:06 PM EST (#383711) #
Strasburg is staying with the Nats. $245m
John Northey - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 03:18 PM EST (#383712) #
Glad to see Strasburg staying there.  I like it when players stick to one team, even if it isn't here.  Entering his age 31 season he is 3rd on their list for WAR for pitchers (behind Steve Rogers 45.1 and Scherzer's 34.9)  and his 112 wins pasted El Presidente and are closing in on Rogers 158 (46 away).

Chuck - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 03:32 PM EST (#383713) #
behind Steve Rogers 45.1 and Scherzer's 34.9

You know you are an old Expos fan when your eyes see Scherzer but your brain says Schatzeder.

uglyone - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 03:43 PM EST (#383714) #
Maybe our guys thought they were being "aggressive"...
GabrielSyme - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 03:54 PM EST (#383715) #
Thornton was a perfectly viable back-end starter the entire year while Zeuch was putting up a FIP and xFIP over 5 in Buffalo.

Zeuch looked better in his limited debut in Toronto, but he hasn't gotten strikeouts at a decent rate since his 2016 season, and there's only so much a low-nineties sinker can do. I'd be happy to be wrong, but Thornton has better velocity, better secondaries, and a better track record. It's great to be a ground-ball pitcher in today's environment, and I'd love to be wrong about Zeuch, but I want to see substantially better performance at AAA before projecting him to be better than Thornton.
SK in NJ - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 04:02 PM EST (#383716) #
With the pitching market the way it is, I can't see the Jays realistically being players on Ryu and Keuchel. Of course it is debatable whether they were in on them in the first place, but certainly looks less likely now.
85bluejay - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 04:09 PM EST (#383717) #
At this rate, the Red Sox will be able to move guys like Price & Eovaldi without having to eat much salary - too bad!
GabrielSyme - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 04:44 PM EST (#383718) #
The reasons for not counting on them might be different, but I think they all deserve an equal amount of skepticism when it comes to holding down a rotation spot. Shoemaker, for well documented reasons (mostly his IP totals of 28.2, 31, and 77.1 over the last three seasons.) As for Thornton, there is clearly some enthusiasm for him here, and maybe it's because I didn't pay close attention in September when he was actually good, but his ERA went over 5 in early July and mostly stayed there until his last start of the season. I'm not suggesting they cut him, but I don't think it would be wise to count on very much. Again, as I've mentioned before, I think Thornton could be a very effective RP.

The original statement I was reacting to was that there was "zero downside" to moving Thornton & Shoemaker "down the depth chart". And insofar as they remain in the rotation, I agree. However, the question of how many innings Shoemaker can be expected or relied on to throw isn't relevant to his position on the depth chart. He's been an above-average starter over his career, he was excellent this year before he tore his ACL. If he's healthy, he should be in the rotation. With respect to Thornton, because of the crazy run environment, his ERA was actually pretty close to league-average: his ERA- was 105. His FIP was actually marginally better than average. This is prefectly good production for a back of-the-rotation player, and his WAR reflects that: fWAR of 1.9, bWAR of 1.7. He has a classic starter's repetoire: 5 pitches which he mixes up a lot - that's not a relief pitcher to me.
PeterG - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 05:16 PM EST (#383719) #
According to his own Twitter, pitcher James Dykstra has signed with the Jays. He is currently hurling in Mexico.
scottt - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 05:51 PM EST (#383720) #
The MVP types getting overpays does not mean everyone will.
Many clubs have little money to spend, so when it's all said and done, there should be many guys having to sign for less.

Strasburg is 31, he's only been healthy twice.
Cole is 2 years younger and has made 30 starts every year.
Cole could easily go for 9/300M.
Strasburg has money deferred for 8 years.
That reminds me of Boston signing Eovaldi last year.
That deal went bad fast. He gave Boston 60 innings with an ERA of 6.
3 more years at 17M each. Basically what Ryu and Keuchel are worth.

Ryu is 33 and has rarely been healthy. An overpay for him is just 4 years. Maybe a buyback option for the 5th year.
Keuchel couldn't find a taker last year  because of draft pick.
He's basically Stroman. Gold gloves, 7K/9, 3BB/9. An overpay for him is also 4 years.

When Price signed his contract he'd been starting 30+ games every year and was one of the best pitcher around.
During the regular season anyway. He's had some really bad stretches since. He'd be a really weird guy to pick up except maybe on his last year, when there's little risk left. Eovaldi is much worse.

greenfrog - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 06:57 PM EST (#383722) #
One reason why Cole makes sense is because he's young and he's so good that he might be able to help the Jays vault into contention now and for the following four or five years. Signing a less-good and older player would be less likely to help the Jays contend in 2020, and also less likely to help in 2021 and beyond (when the pitcher would be that much older and more injury-prone).

For instance, how much is a mid-30s Ryu going to help in 2021 and beyond? He probably makes more sense for a team that is already good now.
dan gordon - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 07:14 PM EST (#383723) #
Pollock's speed is gone. His steals have fallen from 39 in 2015 to 5 last year. He is no longer a capable CF, and even in LF last year, his numbers weren't very good. dWAR last year -1.0 and total WAR 0.2 He's owed $51 million for the next 3 years, including the buyout of the 2023 season. I thought when he signed that deal it was a bad signing, and it looks even worse than I thought it would.

Maeda has a contract that will pay him roughly $9-10 million a year including bonuses if he stays healthy. Keep in mind that he pitches in one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. His career ERA on the road is 4.54. You move him to the AL with the DH and factor in that he turns 32 just after the start of next season, and he probably doesn't even give you that good an ERA over the next 4 years. He's certainly not enough for me to want to take on that terrible Pollock deal.

Every once in a while somebody brings up Votto. I wouldn't want any part of that contract. He's just about done as an effective player. His OPS has fallen from 1.032 in 2017 to .837 and then .768 the last 2 years. His power is almost gone, and he doesn't even hit for a really good average any more. He's owed $107 million for the next 4 years including the buyout of the 2024 season. That's a lot of money to pay to get Hunter Greene.
dan gordon - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 07:58 PM EST (#383728) #
I was talking about the Strasburg signing with a friend at our bridge game today, and we both felt that deal has great potential to become a huge albatross for the Nats. He turns 32 next summer, and has a significant history of injuries. He'll be making $35 million a year until after he turns 38. We also got talking about Bumgarner, and we felt somewhere around 5 years for $100-110 million would be what he gets, so hearing he wants 9 figures sounds right.
Mike Green - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 08:39 PM EST (#383730) #
Fangraphs had Strasburg at 5 yrs/140-150M per Kiley and crowdsource. Those figures were too rich for my blood, so the contract just signed is way too rich in my view. Big, big difference between Cole and Rendon at the top of the market and Strasburg.
DH - Monday, December 09 2019 @ 10:27 PM EST (#383734) #
Bring back HAPP? $17m for one season, though I'd imagine there's some discount to be had.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 12:09 AM EST (#383740) #
I can see it. Yanks eat $14m to cover tulo.
DH - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 12:10 AM EST (#383741) #
Can't we just send Drury and Mckinney back?
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 07:40 AM EST (#383744) #
For a bucket of balls and some Big League Chew?
scottt - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 09:17 AM EST (#383749) #
Cole could go to 300M.
That doesn't necessary mean the price will get crazy on Keuchel and Ryu.
 It seems like the Jays will get a DH and another starter.
That will push Tellez towards the bottom of the order and limit Drury's ABs.
At this point they're trying to get the best possible starter available (outside of Cole who could blow his arm and cripple a team for a decade).

Jevant - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 09:19 AM EST (#383750) #
Happ is a perfect 2020 target. Generally healthy (so he gives you innings), likes the team, good veteran presence, saves the bullpen. The Yankees will presumably give him away. Last year was a rough one, but even if he's halfway between 2016-2018 numbers and 2019 numbers, he'd be the best current starter on the roster.
cascando - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 10:20 AM EST (#383759) #
Happ has a $17M option for 2021 that vests if he makes 27 starts or hits 165 IP in 2020. I think that takes him off the table for the Jays.

Jevant - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 10:24 AM EST (#383760) #
Lots of ways around that. If he's not good, you can move him to the BP. If he's hurt, he misses both of those. If he's great and hits either target, you probably don't mind that as a one year contract (or you shouldn't, anyways). And if the acquisition cost is cheap enough (it should be), and could include the Yankees kicking in money (which they will), not sure I see the downside.
cascando - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 11:01 AM EST (#383762) #
The risk is that Happ is healthy but mediocre again. The rotation is such that the 2019 version of Happ (that we think we can get for nothing with the Yankees paying most of the salary) would be very likely to hit either the starts or IP threshold. Then going into the 2020 off-season they'd be in essentially the same position the Yankees are in now of having to either pay a declining Happ $17 million or paying another team to take him.

They could monkey around with things like using an opener so that he doesn't get the starts, but I don't think that would look very good nor do I think the Jays would be willing to do it. If he is healthy, and not terrible, the option would likely vest.

Anyway, whether it is worth the risk and whether this admin is willing to take that risk are two separate issues.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 11:02 AM EST (#383763) #
Cascando - that's why I say they take on $14m for Tulo. Because that option will vest.
Jevant - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 11:18 AM EST (#383765) #
Healthy and mediocre for 2 years at $34m minus whatever the Yankees pay you to take him (let's say they take Tulo as UO notes), so it' makes it "worst case a 2 years for $20m" and that worst case includes Happ apparently turning in 27 starts or 165 IP for 2020 does not really seem like a bad total outcome to me at all.
cascando - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 11:23 AM EST (#383766) #
Well, yeah, I would make that trade as well. I like Happ and he's kind of exactly what they need at a reasonable price.

I don't think there's any chance the Jays do it though.
#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 02:16 PM EST (#383776) #
Try that again! Not official yet but the Jays are going to name North Delta, BC native Brent Lavallee as the Vancouver Canadians new manager. He was the head coach at Louisiana State-Shreveport and a former North Delta Blue Jay where he was a teammate of James Paxton.

You can read more about it here.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 02:20 PM EST (#383777) #
"One frustrated agent lamented how the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”"
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 02:45 PM EST (#383778) #
I just want to see some movement of any kind.
scottt - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 06:09 PM EST (#383781) #
Which agents though?

Did anyone the Jays were interested in signed for cheap somewhere else?

SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 09:21 PM EST (#383784) #
The only way taking Happ's contract makes sense is if the Yankees add a sweetener to the deal (a prospect/player). The Giants just got Will Wilson from the Angels for taking Cozart's contract. I doubt Cashman will be ready to trade actual value just to get rid of Happ, but that's really the only way it benefits the Jays at all at this point. If the Yankees want to get further below the luxury tax in preparation for Cole or other FA's by trading away "bad" contracts, then it should come at a cost to them.
DH - Tuesday, December 10 2019 @ 09:54 PM EST (#383785) #
Agreed that it should come at a cost but we should be realistic that the Yankees will solve their tax issue with or without the Jays. There's a market for LHP with track records like his.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 02:02 AM EST (#383786) #
Cole signs with the Yankees. 9 years, $324 million.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 06:24 AM EST (#383787) #
Now *that’s* aggressive.
scottt - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 07:42 AM EST (#383788) #
That's going to be interesting.
Yankees Stadium advantages lefties but they're committing shiploads of money on right handed players.
Didi is gone. Hicks in on the shelf. That leaves Tauchman and Gardner (if they resign him) as lefty bats.
CC is gone. They're trying to move Happ. That only leaves Paxton in the rotation.
9 years is a very long time. Sanchez and Judge are hitting their first year of arbitration.

Hopefully all that aggression turns back on them.

Gerry - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 10:15 AM EST (#383795) #
Rule 5 draft this week. The BA preview lists Dany Jimenez as someone who should be taken and Jackson McClelland and Reggie Pruitt as long shots.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 10:17 AM EST (#383796) #
The dynamics on this kind of deal for the Yankees (and Dodgers) is different than for other teams.  They know that they have the money and the brains to make the playoffs most years.  Anticipated playoff value is for them of great importance- winning championships builds the brand and leads to greatly increased franchise value. And for the Yankees and Dodgers, it's harder to win the championship once in the playoffs than to make the playoffs.

So, let's say the expectation for Cole is that he will produce 25-35 WAR during the regular season over the next 9 years.  You might think that this is an overpay, based on that.  But it isn't.  The Yankees are likely to be in the playoffs at least 6 times in those 9 years given the expanded format. And Cole is likely to be a top flight pitcher for at least 4 of those times.  What's that worth to the Yankees?  I don't know, but a lot.  The other thing, of course, is the discount rate on the $36 million owed to him far in the future makes the amount quite a bit less.  There's a lot of debate about the appropriate discount rate to choose.  You can look at salary as a percentage of the luxury tax threshold as a guide.  We don't know what the threshold will be in 2028, but historically it's gone up about 3% a year. 
cascando - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 11:01 AM EST (#383799) #
If that's how those teams assess value in free agency, Mike Green, then it would help explain why the Dodgers are apparently interested in Bumgarner.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 01:24 PM EST (#383805) #
Great point Mike.  If you are a lock for the playoffs (or near lock) then you are trying to improve your odds at that stage of the game instead.  Multiple short series require different thinking than a 162 game schedule.  Back in the early 90's that was an issue for the Jays as they felt they were good enough for the playoffs but not able to get past the first round (back when it was just 2 rounds).  So they went out and signed the guy who won game 7 of the 1991 World Series and was viewed as a guy who 'upped' his game for the post season.  What is funny is Morris was 0-3 in his 4 starts giving up 19 runs in 23 IP yet the Jays won it all anyways.

For the Yankees and to a lesser degree Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cubs making the post season isn't meaningful anymore - only winning the World Series is.  Thus they need to plan out how to do that.  Pitching seems to be a key element.  A solid closer, great setup guys, an ace or 2 who can carry the team when needed.  Much like in hockey and basketball where teams plan out post season runs when they go acquire players.
dan gordon - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 03:47 PM EST (#383813) #
"The BA preview lists Dany Jimenez as someone who should be taken and Jackson McClelland and Reggie Pruitt as long shots"

I was disappointed that Jimenez wasn't protected, and I expect he will be picked. I've never heard anybody mention Pruitt as a candidate before. He's never hit much at all in the minors. I hope the Jays pick at least one starting pitcher tomorrow - there are a lot of interesting guys available.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 11 2019 @ 09:39 PM EST (#383835) #
Jimenez sounds like a good candidate to get selected. He had excellent numbers last year, including a high K rate, and BA notes he has "a high-90s fastball with arm-side run, a plus slider and a low-80s changeup that shows promise" and average control. He's 6'3" 190 lbs. and he'll turn 26 this month.

With the expanded roster size this year, Pruitt could be a useful defensive replacement (above-average center fielder) and pinch runner -- per BA.
scottt - Thursday, December 12 2019 @ 07:09 AM EST (#383847) #
The Jays pick early. The could draft Jimenez if nobody they like better is available.
bpoz - Thursday, December 12 2019 @ 09:25 AM EST (#383853) #
Jimenez to the Jays would be interesting. He comes to ST, does not make the team and is offered back. Now he is off the 40 man and cannot burn an option.
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