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Well, the Jays and all of MLB have already released 2021's schedule (far ahead of usual) probably to try to hype things up a bit before wave 2 hits this fall. The Jays signed all 5 of their draft picks - 5 years in a row they have signed their picks in the first 5 rounds (last missed was 2015 Brady Singer who is with the Royals, signed for 2019 season out of the first round in 2018).

The never ending off season continues.
  • The 2021 schedule starts in NY vs the Yankees on April 1st. Home opener on April 8th. At home vs the Rays on Victoria Day, home vs the Mariners for July 1st, home on July 4th vs the Rays (seems dumb, but OK), home vs Cleveland for the Civic Holiday, on the road vs the Yankees for Labour Day. Regular season ends October 3rd vs the Orioles.
  • Austin Martin signed for every penny he could get after the other 4 signed ($7,000,825). 4th round pick Nick Frasso signed for a lot less (below slot). FYI: Martin will be the 2nd Austin Martin to play professionally - another one played in C ball as a catcher in 1897/1898.
  • Past drafts...
    • 2019 the Jays signed their first 18 draft picks (missed #19 Gustavo Sosa)
    • 2018 they signed up to round 21 when Kobby Lopez didn't sign.
    • 2017 it was round 17 when the first got away (Kobie Russell)
    • 2016 saw them miss the 13th rounder Chris Lincoln.
    • 2015 (last AA draft) missed Brady Singer in the 2nd round and Marrick Crouse in the 11th.
    • 2014 missed Zack Zehner in the 7th round and Jake Latz in the 11th.
    • 2013 was the missing of their top pick Phillip Bickford who probably regrets not taking the money as he is stuck in A+ as a reliever, next miss that year wasn't until the 17th round (Eric Lauer).
    • 2012 you need to go to the 11th round for a miss in Grant Heyman.
    • 2011 was the Tyler Beede draft (1st Jay pick, DNS) then Andrew Chin (5th round), and a lot of others (this was pre-cap days so risks taken earlier).
    So few early round picks missed since the cap went into place - if you go back further far more were missed early on due to the higher risk that was worth taking. Thanks to Bluebird Banter for having signing tables nicely set up.
  • As many here expected the Jays are adding Austin Martin to the player pool. This will get him many PA's vs ML and near ML pitchers in camp thus speeding up his development.
  • As is well known by now 12 players are held back due to 1 testing positive and the others having been in close contact. Hopefully this will resolve soon and no one will be strongly sick. No word amazingly on who it was (not officially released but often it is found out quickly for other teams).

As always, this is a great thread for the latest news/rumours/etc. about the Jays and MLB in general. Hopefully in two weeks we'll be talking about games and hoping to see Vlad tear the cover off like it is a home run contest every day.
Schedule for 2021 - All Draft Picks Signed and Misc | 205 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#387892) #
Just saw that the Jays will televise at least 2 of their intersquad games - July 14 & 15 at 6:30 PM both days on Sportsnet. Yay!
ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#387893) #
" five years in a row they have signed their picks in the first five years."

I think you have a typo, John, and the second 'years' should be 'rounds'. Thanks for the information and links.

An article on Sportsnet says that Teoscar Hernandez is the only outfielder from the 40 man roster to be seen on the practice field meaning that most of the other outfielders are among those held back in Dunedin for precautionary reasons.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#387894) #
Brady Singer failed to reach an agreement with Jays due to a post draft physical.
He went to the University of Florida where he became one of the most successful US pitcher in those 3 years.
He was signed 18th overall by the Royals in the 2018 draft (4.5M bonus) although some sites had him ranked as high as 2nd best prospect available.
He's currently one of their top prospect even though he's a slider/sinker pitcher with low 90s velo.
His ability to put lefties away seems to be a concern, but he's done really well in AA.

scottt - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#387895) #
After not signing when the Jays picked him in the 7th in 2014, Zack Zehner signed with the Yankees the following year (18th round). He's just org filling at this point.
uglyone - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#387898) #

Here is what’s going to keep #BlueJays players in their stadium/hotel bubble this summer:

Per multiple sources, players have been told penalty if seen outside ballpark is $750,000 fine and potential jail time.

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) July 10, 2020
Mylegacy - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#387899) #
Uglyone - THAT is one someb*tch fine. It's even more than my wife charges me when I come home late after a night out at my local!
tercet - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#387900) #
Rowdy Tellez said a few weeks ago on Ricky Romero's podcast that the Jays didn't sign Bickford because he showed up to a physical with a broken arm.
Glevin - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#387901) #
Vlad being moved to first and DH full-time. Was a matter of time.
SK in NJ - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#387902) #
Vlad moving to 1B is a great decision. It was inevitable. There was no way he was sticking at 3B. Make the move early and move forward. Good news. Shaw is more than capable of handling 3B in the interim.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#387904) #
I think Vladdy's move across the diamond is a another sign the team wants to be more competitive right now. Here's hoping that Shaw's bat makes a rebound, and he can hold down the hot corner until Martin or Groshans is ready.

I also suspect that Vladdy might not have shown up to camp in the best shape after quarantine.

John Northey - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#387905) #
Article on Vlad to 1B/DH - big news, but pretty much inevitable. I hoped he'd get another year or two at 3B but if this helps him focus more ala Delgado moving to 1B from CA/LF (ugh there was an ugly experiment) then it is good.

Travis Shaw now expected to play at 3B. If Jordan Groshans had played higher than A ball last year I'd be expecting him to be in serious contention for the team now, but sadly I suspect this means more time for Drury instead.
uglyone - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#387906) #
about time.

annoyed me off that they wasted all this time with him playing 3B when he was never going to be passable there.

there is a chance - not a big one, but a chance - that he can be a plus defensive 1B. and an actual decent chance that he can at least be a passable one.

this does indicate to me that they're gonna try Martin in the IF to start.
John Northey - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#387907) #
Good point on Martin - wonder if he could possibly impress enough in training to earn a slot on the big team this season? Possible, unlikely but possible. Especially if the Jays contend and Drury and Shaw flop at 3B.
Gerry - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#387908) #
Travis Shaw has been tweeting today that they were told the player lockdown is just for two weeks.

That makes sense, in that the players would agree to a two week lockdown, but have trouble agreeing to a 60 day lockdown.

That should make it easier for the government to say no to regular season games.
uglyone - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#387909) #
Both DRS and UZR have Shaw as solid to above average defensively at 3B.
bpoz - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#387910) #
With all the variable in a 60 game sprint one more is giving away games.

1) The closer blows a save. How? Pitched badly OR had to make an extra out because the defense made an error. I am nervous about our potential non elite defensive OF.

2) The closer does not blow the save because the CF/LF/RF made a great game saving catch.

With the 60 game sprint then the good hitter can get comfortable in his best fielding position(s) so that his hitting does not suffer.

It is all about momentum.

Less worry about your newborns if you are not playing. So said Buster Posey. Sort of.
John Northey - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#387911) #
Shaw's tweet is a reminder of the danger of having rich, young athletes in town who are travelling all over the USA. These are people who never hear 'no' in their lives. Telling them they need to quarantine, no matter the reason, will never go over well. Some who are excited to be in the majors will not care as much since 24/7 baseball is appealing to them. But the older they get, the more of a family they have, the less they will be willing to be doing nothing but baseball for 2-3 months.

Just think about yourself. When I was in my early to mid 20's if I was locked in the dome for 2 months I'd have been very happy. Now at 50, not so much as I have kids and while I enjoy baseball, living it 24/7 is not a thing now (regardless of how much I post).
Magpie - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#387912) #
But the older they get, the more of a family they have, the less they will be willing to be doing nothing but baseball for 2-3 months.

Especially in the midst of a freaking pandemic. You're going to abandon your family for two months for this lame excuse of a "season?"
scottt - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#387913) #
They should be allowed out once they've isolated for 2 weeks. It's hard to argue against that.
Once the season starts, they'll never be allowed out of the "bubble" while in Canada.

Depending on the state they're in while on the road, they might be able to do whatever they want there, but would need to keep passing those tests to return to Canada.

It's kinda more complicated for the family.

scottt - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#387914) #
They'd be much safer "abandoning" the family in Canada than opting out and staying in the US.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#387915) #
I wonder if they had to promise Shaw the 3B job to get him to stay.
I'm not worried about his ability to play the hot corner, but in a short season with the pitchers ahead of the hitters for a large chunk of it, I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles to hit again.

Kopech opted not to play.
I wonder if that's eats out his last option.
And if it does, that would mean he's not losing a year of control, since he wasn't going to be called in the first week anyway.

John Northey - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#387916) #
scottt - very agreed. Smart players will move their whole families up here if allowed, do the 2 weeks isolation in the dome then the family moves out to an apartment in town so they can live life while the season goes on and then try to stay the winter if possible until a COVID vaccine comes around. No sane person would want to be in Florida right now, or Texas, or Arizona, or even parts of California where it has gone nuts as well. Smart ones would want any new kids born here too as then their kid gets dual citizenship which is a big bonus in life for most as they then can use either nations passport, or live in either with minimal issues.

Buffalo isn't a bad spot (weird to type that) right now. 30-40 cases a day. NY state has got through the worst for now. So if the Jays have their 30 call up members of the 60 man play there then having your family stay there isn't insane, unlike staying in Dunedin. Most of Florida is increasing fast, some extremely fast.

Part of the issue for some players is many are Trump fans (traditionally players are very right wing in their views due to their wealth I suspect) thus more likely to think this is all a 'left wing hoax' or some other garbage. One can only hope the threat of a $750k fine and potential jail time is enough to keep them from running around Toronto while here.
johnny was - Friday, July 10 2020 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#387917) #
I'm all for the draconian cash fine for lock down violations--threatening to have the sergeant at arms lop off an offender's pinky would get the point across even better, though--but over this two-month season there are five road trips into the US, including what appears to be be four off days in Florida and one in Georgia. If these guys are on total airtight lock down while they're in Canada, expect a few of them to make up for lost time in two of the most disease-riddled American states once they get some free time.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#387919) #
Unless they have severe financial needs, players should sit out this 60 game season - For less than 40% of their contract, they are being asked to put their health & maybe life (and maybe their family's) at risk and even if you recover from the virus, it's long-term effects on your health is unknown, especially your respiratory system and this could have long-term effects on your ability to perform on the field, on your earnings ability and quality of life after baseball - certainly I don't think it's worth the risk.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#387920) #
Hockey seems to have the greatest chance of success by having two hub cities in Canada. Baseball teams moving from city to city in the United States of Covid seems like a recipe for disaster.

Nothing seems as bad as football though. Even in the best of times the players are sacrificing their bodies in an ultra-violent sport. Now this year, after tackling, blocking, and generally interacting with each other for 60 minutes, they have the laughable guidelines of not exchanging handshakes or jerseys after the game. Apparently there will even be fans in the stands, as well.
bpoz - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#387921) #
I hope we all stay safe. The Bauxite family is very sensible.

This whole this is fascinating. Something so unpredictable. Only 60 games. Many unknowns in players available. Mutating virus.

One thing is almost for sure. The fall will bring a big increase in infections. Symptoms may change.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#387922) #
For most players, it's not that the season will put their life (and they family's) at risk.
The issue is that the season will force them to isolate--which most of them haven't been doing.
The issue with the family is similar. Nobody is at a greater risk. The players don't want to be isolated from their families and the families don't want to be in quarantine for 3 months.
A lot of the baseball families live in mansions and employ staff to cook their meal and clean their houses. It's not a real bubble.

scottt - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#387923) #
It looks like the Blue Jays started to look into playing in Buffalo a couple of days ago.

One issue is the lighting was redone in 2011, but isn't up to the current LED standard.
Space for clubhouse, training and batting cages would be tight. They would probably need to rig something over the concourse where the fans normally sit.
There's not much of a media box either.

Officially, the alternate location remains Dunedin.

For the players who are paying for condos in downtown Toronto, none of these solutions will be appealing.

PeterG - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#387925) #
I have heard they are moving away from Dunedin and Buffalo is likely. If this happens, it might be possible to keep the taxi squad in TO. Otherwise, they will need to find another place less than 100 miles from Buffalo.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#387926) #
Agreed, Island Boy, incredibly its the NHL which actually seems to be the one with the sensible realistic plan.

NBA has the right idea but an hilariously wrong location.

MLB? This "plan" seems completely ludicrous and untethered to reality, imo. Likely a disaster.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#387927) #
Just saw a Lakers player comparing his Walt Disney resort room in Orlando to a Motel 6.
Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#387928) #
For those who are interested Marcus Stroman and Randall Grichuk are feuding on Twitter today, all started by Aubrey Huff.

The basic story seems to be that for some reason Huff alleged that Stroman, when he was with the Jays, had minor leaguers kicked out of the weight room so he, Stroman, could work out by himself. Grichuk confirmed the report at which time Stroman started beefing with Grichuk, the details of which seem to resolve around who is more popular.

I don't think anyone needs to know more.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#387929) #
2yr Stats:

Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#387930) #
In other Twitter news, Kevan Smith, a catcher for the Rays talked about Florida and COVID. He appears to be from Philadelphia where mask wearing is acceptable. But in Florida, when the players go out for food, with a mask on, they get called pansies, or worse, and get a lot of stares and funny looks.

That kind of explains why Florida is in the mess it is in.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#387931) #
It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the snowbirds who normally would go back to Florida this fall. The insurance companies will not cover them and the provincial government don't seem eager to send money to the US for these types of services given the current status.
John Northey - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#387932) #
Florida is a disaster zone right now - full of COVIDiots. Anyone dumb enough to go around without a mask when the odds of getting the virus are sky high in the area (far higher than it ever got here in Ontario) should be ready to sign a waiver to not care for them in the hospital so they don't give it to doctors and nurses.

As to snowbirds, I'm very thankful my parents dumped their Florida home a year ago, this past winter was their first in Canada in around 20 years. I've heard that many of their US friends are not acting appropriately right now and I'm waiting for the first of their friends to get COVID which will be sad but is inevitable I figure. Funny/sad how many think they are immune because they haven't gotten it yet.
John Northey - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#387933) #
In game news - 2 games in Fenway before the season - July 21/22. Good way to see who belongs before the 30 man is set. 7:30 PM and safe to say they'll be televised.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#387934) #
Encouraging pictures of an almost completely empty Disneyworld on today their grand re-opening.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#387936) #
Average of Steamer + Zips projections:

Manhattan Mike - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#387937) #
Hmmm... sounds like somewhat of an idea... I assume you would therefore agree that anyone participating in a public protest should also be denied care "in the hospital so they don't give it to doctors and nurses". While we're at it, the same "peaceful" folks should also be held liable for the healthcare costs of everyone in their extended social circle. We on to something, bud? #sticktobaseball
ayjackson - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#387938) #
Lol. Mike's last post 9 years ago seems to be a complaint about the overpayment for Jose Bautista. I can see why he stayed away so long.
Manhattan Mike - Saturday, July 11 2020 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#387939) #
So, in other words, I'm right... and since you cannot attack the message, you gotta attack the messenger. Also, learn to read. Pretty sure I qualified the statement - and it wasn't out of line at the time.

PS - the Jays have a pretty terrible history of extending players to bad deals after one or two good seasons.

Thanks, friend.
John Northey - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 02:39 AM EDT (#387940) #
Sigh... Manhattan Mike - the public protests are different from Joe Ballplayer going out for a drink. Protests are due to people dying and the protesters have overwhelmingly been wearing masks which helps a LOT. Someone here in London Ontario was found to have COVID during it (tested right after) and didn't spread it as we had 0 cases many days after and under 10 virtually every day since it. If you follow rules you aren't a major risk, if you don't then you are. Florida is full of the idiots who won't wear one.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#387941) #
So MLS bubbling at Disneyworld might have been a bad idea.

First game just got canceled due to players getting covid.
bpoz - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#387942) #
They Jays pitchers need to build up their pitch count to over 50 pitches.
Manhattan Mike - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#387943) #
Sigh. Thanks for letting me know the grievances claimed by the protesters. I had been previously unaware.

I also did some research and it turns out that a virus magically stops its spread if it's for a political cause John Northey deems worthy, even if not all the participants are wearing masks. Especially not the "protesters" spewing droplets directly in the face of cops as they share their "peaceful" message.

So we definitely shouldn't require such folks from signing the waivers John Northey thought was a good idea for "Joe Ballpark", who may not share the same passions as John Northey and are going outside for reasons they think are equally as valid. I apologize.

Some animals are more equal than others, eh? #sticktobaseball

PS - As of right now, death rate per confirmed case is astronomically higher in ONT than FL. Death rate per capita = also higher in ONT than in FL... It's almost as if the data is inconsistent and flawed.
ayjackson - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#387944) #
Thanks for stopping by. See you again in 9 years.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#387945) #
BTW, Ugly, I think you just posted a broken link.
John Northey - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#387946) #
Manhattan Mike - please stop with Republican talking points. I get sick of them very quickly. Ontario's death rate was so high because the disease hit nursing homes (very poorly run ones - private nursing homes is a bad idea) where the expected death rate is sky high if COVID gets in. Thanks to a lower overall case count our death rate went sky high and never gets to go down as we don't have enough cases in younger crowds to pull it down. Meanwhile in Florida they are all getting it.

As to your obvious chosen ignorance on what I said earlier - masks were worn at most of those protests by the vast majority. The case spread has been shown (when checked) to be drastically lower than say, the crowds of idiots at a bar with no masks. Were the protests ideal at this time? No. But I can understand why people felt the need and anyone with half a brain can see most of the crowds were wearing masks no matter what Fox News tells you. Meanwhile the bars, and the beaches are full in places like Florida thus spreading the disease all over the place. And that spread is primarily among the younger crowd although now the death rate is starting to jump down there (almost a hundred dead a day now from a low of 18 a week ago - it takes time for cases to shift to deaths, Ontario had 3 die yesterday) So yeah, I have zero interest in having the US spread of the disease coming here. I think you are the one who really needs to #sticktobaseball as you hit me with talking points, I use facts.

Back to baseball Tellez showing power again in the intersquad games - 2 HR in one game. Should be interesting to see if he is the primary DH splitting DH/1B with Vlad. Wonder if we might have a McGriff/Fielder situation again where 2 very good hitters are on the team but this time the manager just flips them between DH/1B instead of trying to shoehorn one at 3B/2B (still can't believe they did that with Cecil Fielder, I suspect someday people won't believe anyone thought it was a good idea to have Vlad at 3B like most don't believe Delgado at catcher was seriously considered for a long time).
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#387947) #
Yeah that bit of whataboutism is a bit much.

Protests aren't ideal under a pandemic situation but we all saw that pretty much everyone was masked up, and of course they were all outside.

This is clearly very different from the willful and aggressive embrace of literally doing the opposite of safety guidelines just to spite those damn libruls.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#387948) #
There were over 15,000 new cases today in Florida, a new daily record in the US. The previous daily high was 12,000+ (in New York State in April). If the infection fatality rate is 0.05%, 15,000 cases would translate to about 75 deaths. Of course, there is also the potential for lingering health issues among the people who contract but do not die from the virus.

Canada and Ontario are doing much better but we are not out of the woods yet.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#387949) #
Sorry, that should read, infection fatality rate of 0.5% (not 0.05%).
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#387950) #
Greeting Mike or Man, I'm not sure.

The death counts in Florida have been questioned, starting with the architect of the reporting website, Rebecah Jones who was fired back in May. She said was fired after she refused to lower the positivity numbers from 18 to 10% so that the state would make the reopening target. She says they are reporting the number of person having tested positive divided by the total number of tests--possibly several tests for each persons.

She's now reporting over 282K infected people in Florida since March 1st.
That includes 70K new cases this week.
Here site is at

Infections have been growing exponentially in Florida since June 13, reaching new highs every day.
In Canada, infections peaked in May with 35K people infected at the same time and have decreased slowly. There are still 27K active cases in Canada.

Florida is currently the epicenter of the infection in the US, with Miami-Dade suffering the worst of it.

Baseball players continue to become infected with new positive cases being reported every day.
The Rays don't seem to have been impacted hard. Same with the Marlins.
Conversely, the Diamondbacks have been hits hard, back in Arizona.

The virus is lethal for those over 70 and the Ontario death rate is mostly due to a string of outbreaks in retirement homes. For example, my wife's employer has lost 61 persons out of 307.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#387951) #
Greenfrog, the fatality rate of reported infections (as opposed to actual ones- a much higher figure) is unfortunately a lot higher than 0.5%.  So far in the US, there are 1.643 million closed cases and 137,000 deaths for a death rate to date of 8%. It will perhaps go down a little.  Unfortunately 15,000 reported infections probably projects out to 500-750 deaths in a day.  Not quite NYC level, but very bad.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#387952) #
Florida is reporting around 70K new cases and 277 deaths this week.
That's more than 3 times what they had 3 weeks ago.
That's 45 deaths for the last 24 hours.
However, deaths trail cases by about 2 weeks as it kills slowly.
They had 18 600 hospitalizations since March and 7500 right now, which leave about 1160 ICU beds state wise.

Dunedin and the Trop are in Pinellas County.
It's currently an orange zone.
231 news cases and 0 death today. (Almost 800 new cases in Tampa next door.)
12% of cases admitted to ER.
9% admitted to hospitals.
231 deaths, 162 in long-term care facilities.

uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#387953) #
The most comprehensive Excess Deaths analysis say that we should multiply reported death counts by approximately 1.3x to get an accurate figure.
John Northey - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#387954) #
Ugh scottt - sorry to hear that. Hopefully your wife is doing OK, both physically and emotionally as dealing with all that death would be hard. So glad Ford didn't follow the US example, although he seems determined to set up more death long term by privatizing more health care which is a different argument for another day.

Thanks for the link. Was curious what happened to that woman after the mess a few months ago - so much happening that you lose track.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#387955) #
As for Florida, Rubio proudly tweeted out that 40% of the hospitalized patients that tested positive for covid were not being recorded as being hospitalized for covid itself, but for some other pre-existing issue instead.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#387956) #
This year, Borucki has replaced his slider (the slurvy thing) with a cutter.
The results are looking good so far. Over a 60 game season, there might not be much room for tinkering.

Tellez has been locked going in. Usually, spring training results don't mean much, but the games will count in a couple of weeks.

hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#387957) #
Noticed uo's excess death post.Been wondering for a while why there is so little on this. Belgium is the only country I know of where it has been deliberately overcounted - any death that could possibly be covid was counted as covid, hence their high rate. Tampa Bay Times ran something a while back. About 2000 excess deaths(19,000 vs expected 17,000) of which only about 1000 were attributed to covid.

To tie Florida attitudes on covid to baseball, here's something from Rays catcher Kevan Smith:
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 12 2020 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#387958) #
It looks like Chase Anderson is the first pitcher to drop out of the rotation. I’m hoping Borucki or Kay get some run here, as we all know it won’t be Pearson first run through.
John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#387959) #
Yeah, Anderson pulled something it seems from what I've read. Vital to keep Pearson down for a week if that is all it takes to gain another year of control (only a fool wouldn't want that). It will be a challenge for the Jays to shuffle everything. They don't need their 5th starter until the 28th with the off day on the 23rd so there is a week off right away at zero cost. Just use his slot for an extra long arm and if it comes up to an arbitration hearing you'd just say you were doing what was best for winning - making use of every slot every day.
Chuck - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#387960) #

That Americans cannot spin doing the right thing as a patriotic gesture baffles me. Such is the political divide, I guess. Cut off my nose to spite my face.

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has walked back his honest commentary on the viability of bubble life with a decidedly dubious retraction.

Manhattan Mike - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#387961) #

Oh, you use facts? I was confused bc there was so much opinion in what you wrote... but here we go: 

Critical fact: This is a helluva virus that doesn't care about John Northey's perceived social "value" of any protest or gathering. (Large gatherings increase the risk of virus transmission, which is the theory behind universally restricting crowd sizes and mandating 'stay-at-home' policies.) 

Fact: What you get "sick of" reading does not concern me. At all. 

Fact: Your statement about Ontario's death rate is a (laughable) theory - at best. 

Fact: Your socio-political views on private nursing homes are (irrelevant) opinions, not facts. 

Fact: My original comment was in response to your insinuation (which you've since confirmed as a belief) that those who participate in certain gatherings ought to be (literally) treated differently in terms of accessing healthcare services than those who participate in other kinds of (much larger) gatherings. Most leftists had some common sense and dropped this silly canard as soon as the mid-May's protests against the lockdowns shifted to the "social justice" protests, which commenced in late May and have continued since then... But you seem not to have been given that particular memo. 

Fact: "Vast majority","most" and the other non-absolutes you have used is clearly not "all". 

Fact: The only "obvious ignorance" is your failure to realize that "vast majority" is, very clearly, not "all, 100% of the time, in accordance with local laws and regulations". This matters given the large number of participants. Especially since it is also a fact that you cannot possibly have any clue as to whether the masks are being worn properly and/or during the entire duration of the tightly-packed protests. Same goes with respect to the health-related behaviours of protesters in the periods before and after participating in such protests. 

Fact: Thus, the protests were not "ideal at this time". (Yay, you got something right! You get a sticker!)

Fact: The explosion in case counts occurred after the "social justice" protests started. (Correlation does not equal causation, though, and I am not stating there's a direct link.) 

Observation: Since the pandemic started, I've spent time in both Canada and the US, including a few of the hardest-hit states. The widespread use of masks is a lot more prevalent in these states than is mask usage in the Southern Ontario region. Especially in enclosed retail areas. Just sayin'...

Observation: You harbor excessive and (troublingly) unwarranted resentment towards your fellow man; specifically, "Fox News" and "Republicans" and those you (smugly) deride as "Joe Ballpark".

Fact: #sticktobaseball
bpoz - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#387962) #
Ryu, Roark, Anderson and Shoemaker are not competing for a rotation spot. As veterans they are handed a spot.

With Anderson injured for now, Montoyo has said there is competition for the open rotation spots.

Thornton may be handed a rotation spot. I don't know.
pubster - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#387963) #
"Fact: #sticktobaseball"

Be the change you want to see in the world.
uglyone - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#387964) #
"Fact: The explosion in case counts occurred after the "social justice" protests started. (Correlation does not equal causation, though, and I am not stating there's a direct link.) "

Fact: the largest and most continuous protests occurred in New York City. There was no explosion in cases. Quite the opposite - they have now recorded zero daily deaths.
bpoz - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#387965) #
To honor T Fernandez the Jays will all wear #1 at season.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#387966) #
We've had protests here as well and there was no impact.

It looks like it's hard to catch Covid-19 outside.
Maybe that's more significant than the actual weather/temperature/humidity.

I'm still not sold on the mask.
All those retirement home outbreaks happened when everybody was wearing those masks.
Masks in bars and restaurants? I really don't see the point. If you're not keeping 6 feet you're exposing yourself. Eat in a patio.

I took my grandson to his little league sort out over the weekend.
I don't think they'll be able to play, but it's possible to do clinics and keep the 6 feet.
Better than nothing.

bpoz - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#387967) #
Looking at the news about Toronto parks and beaches I was expecting a spike to occur. But it did not. I think.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#387968) #
Observation: Since the pandemic started, I've spent time in both Canada and the US, including a few of the hardest-hit states. The widespread use of masks is a lot more prevalent in these states than is mask usage in the Southern Ontario region. Especially in enclosed retail areas. Just sayin'...

That's really not good to hear.
Not that people are not wearing masks in areas where there is low infection.
I'm only wearing a mask because it's now mandatory here.
If I had a choice, I wouldn't. Mind you, if my immunity doesn't last until the end of the summer, we're in this for years to come. 
Mike Green - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#387969) #
Scottt, three things about masks.  Not all those retirement home outbreaks occurred when masks were being worn.  Onsets for many of them occurred in April, and masks were routinely not used by visitors until the closures began in mid-March.  Even staff had insufficient PPEs.

More importantly, many countries have successfully controlled the virus with the use of masks being an important factor.  A number of Asian countries did it (Taiwan, Hong Kong and so on), but there was a history of mask-wearing in those places.  A more impressive story occurred in Slovakia. While death rates per million are significantly lower in Eastern Europe than Western Europe, Slovakia has managed a rate about one-tenth of its neighbours with mask-wearing being a key part. There seem to be a couple of ways to successfully attack this virus in a modern mostly urban environment- shut it down hard and early (a la New Zealand) or wear masks universally and test and trace.  That's how you get a death rate under 10 per million. 

Masks work for interesting reasons.  They don't block the smaller size viruses and their efficiency varies from mask to mask.  But they do block the larger size viruses and the result is that risk of exposure is reduced and also viral load is reduced.  It is likely that viral load is very important in whether exposure leads to infection. 

scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#387970) #
Most of the retirement home outbreaks happened between the beginning of April and the end of May.
It's the same with the meat processing plants.
My wife had been wearing masks for weeks when she got infected.
Part of the problem is that the hospitals sent positives cases back in the homes and they were only testing travelers until the end of April.

It took months to sell the idea to our doctors.
We're just at a point where we'll try anything to reduce the economic cost.

Now for test and trace, we're not doing much.

I read the little league waiver and it requires that a player isolates until all his family is symptom free and 14 days has passed. The province only requires to isolate for 14 days from the onset of symptoms. That's quite a difference. And then there's nothing about an asymptomatic positive test.

John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#387971) #
To clean this up - a new COVID thread is up - please put all commentary on it there instead of in this thread. Lets talk about baseball here, the only COVID comments from now on in this thread should be player xyz is on the IL due to COVID type of comments.
John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#387973) #
Jays for 2020...a first guess. Remember 30 to start with a 3 man 'travel squad'.
  • CA: Jansen/McGuire/Joseph
  • 1B: Vlad
  • 2B: Biggio
  • 3B: Shaw
  • SS: Bichette
  • LF: Gurriel
  • CF: Hernandez (ugh)
  • RF: Grichuk
  • DH: Tellez
  • IF: Drury, Tejada, Panik (I expect no more than 2 of these)
  • OF: Alford, Fisher, Davis (I expect no more than 2 of these)
  • Starting: Ryu, Roak, Shoemaker, Thornton, Pearson (down for week 1)
  • Relief: Giles, Yamaguchi, Font, Bass, Dolis, Gaviglio, Petricka, Moran, Cole, Tice, Diaz (1 goes to travel group when Pearson put on roster)

15 hitters, 15 pitchers. Seems reasonable to start with 3 extras being the missing IF (I expect Davis to be in the training camp) 1 pitcher, and a mystery catcher. Joseph will spend most of the year on that 3 man travel squad.

I listed Pearson as starting since a #5 pitcher isn't need for a week and if he is down for a week then he gets an extra year of control so obviously the Jays will keep him down for that week.
pubster - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#387974) #
How long does Pearson have to stay in the minors in order for the Jays to get another year of control?
bpoz - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#387975) #
2 ST games with Boston and we play them for real in game 14 Aug 7.

K Matheson is suggesting that the 33 man Opening day roster will be pitching heavy. This makes sense to me. The 7,8,9 inning will most likely be 1 inning each. So 3 pitchers.

Looking at how Gaviglio was used last year he went 2 or 3 innings and got 2 days off at least. So Waguespack is probably on the team if healthy and he wins a spot in the pen as a 2-4 inning pitcher.

scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#387976) #
The rule that limited the number of pitchers has been suspended.
Because the starters are not stretched, expect something like 13 hitters/17 pitchers.
Also, the limitation about hitters pitching are gone as well. 

Of the 8 outfielders in the 60 player pool, only Teoscar has been seen in Toronto.
Davis is actually on the IL.

John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#387979) #
For Pearson it appears to be 7 days he has to stay down, so with an offday he could be used for the #5 starter role with no one getting extra rest or needing a bullpen day. If so then it would be idiotic to do it any other way.

As to the pitching - lets assume max of 4 innings for anyone, most 1 inning. At least 1 day off between appearances. No more than 10 innings a game - then you need 7 pitchers available per game. 14 for 2 games, plus 2-3 more starters (the 4 inning guys) so 16 total. Anything beyond that is into the 'this is getting silly' area. Could get away with 14 if you don't assume extra innings every day. Wonder how the taxi squad works - probably online somewhere - can you flip guys in and out of it daily? IE: have 4 relievers with 2 on taxi squad duty and 2 on active staff every day, flipping as used. I'd think MLB would not open that big a loophole but I can't find anything stating it one way or the other.

More than 15 pitchers and I think you are getting into the silly zone. Honestly, would you want the 16th best pitcher on the mound for anything beyond mop up duty? In that case you might as well use your 5th OF (who in the Jays case would be a good pinch runner/defensive replacement at least) or 7th IF (again, good baserunner and defense so able to be useful in a close game as well).
PeterG - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#387980) #
All of the OF's have now been seen in TO. As far as I can tell, only missing players are Drury and Luciano.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#387981) #
I think Luciano is hurt.
The less we see of Drury the better.

Rob Longley has reported that Gurriel, Martin, Davis, Wall and Palacios are in the clubhouse.

That's an oufield.

scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#387982) #
Normal rules:A team can recall a player and place him on the taxi-squad for 1 day.
If the player is not added to the active roster by 3pm or the start of the next game, he has to be optioned back.

This does not count as service time.

A player would be called to the taxi-squad in anticipation of putting a player on the IL.

The Covid exception rule is that up to 3 players can stay on the taxi-squad indefinitely.
The 3rd player must be a catcher and can catch in the bullpen.

A 27th player might be used during doubleheaders, but not before the rosters are down to 26.

So, it appears the taxi-squad amigos are there in case they have to put someone on the IL, but if they do, it's for 10 days. You can't just swap from the roster and the taxi-squad. It should be veterans that didn't make the teams. Perfect spot for Drury.

bpoz - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#387983) #
I got 42 in the 40 man. Includes Drury and Luciano. 22 NRIs. So 64 on our 60 man pool. 35 pitchers total in the 40 man + NRI.

The IL will be used a bit/lot. Don't know.

So 13/17 or 14/16 hitters/pitchers for 30 active players.

I see Pearson as the best NRI pitcher. Then J Miller/Petricka (NRI) as having the best chance at playing in a game in 2020. The IL will be used to make room on the 40 man for additions.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#387984) #
The normal staff is 13 pitchers with 5 stretched starters who can go 5+ innings.
The extra 4 players allowed on the staff is mostly to cover pitchers who have to go after 4 innings.
You already have 4 bench players to rotate through. That's more than normally used in the AL.
The DH isn't really playing anyway, so can have everyone take the field no more than 2 days in row just using the 13 position players. (play-play-rest/DH).  More position players would just lead to guys complaining about their playing time.

scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#387985) #
Players on the Covid19-IL don't count as being on the active, reserve (40) or pool (60) lists.

It seems Drury, Luciano, Perez and Davis are currently on the IL.

John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#387986) #
It all depends - growing up in the 70's/80's it was normal to have a 15 hitter/10 pitcher mix or even 16/9. Hitters were platooned, pinch run for, defensive replacements. Then Tony LaRussa started using LOOGY's and ROOGY's in the late 80's and won a World Series and everyone started doing the same. The 13 hitter method leads to a starting 9 and just 4 backups (1 catcher, 1 infielder, 1 outfielder, and an extra) which seriously limits choices in a game. I understand why the specialists in relief became a thing as properly used you can make all relievers better - they can focus on just 1 to 3 hitters and go all-out for those batters and by facing more than 1 they get more use than a pinch hitter or runner gets. A top fielder can help in multiple ways as their being there allows guys in nearby positions relax a bit more (if you are in the OF and have a horrid guy in LF you gotta be ready to cover for him while the RF also has to cover more ground knowing the CF is covering for the bad LF'er, but if you have a gold glover out there you can relax and focus on your own area for example).

Still, I have trouble seeing how having 15+ pitchers helps anything. Hopefully the 3 batter rule is still in place for this year as that kills off loogy/roogy's. Flipping pitchers 1001 times a game is just annoying. A pinch runner takes up nearly no time and adds to the fun (I'd rather watch a real runner on the bases vs a slow catcher for example). The 15 and beyond pitchers will probably be getting splinters on their butts for the most part so complaining about playing time should be equal for pitchers as with hitters. They all want to play but only so many can.
SK in NJ - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#387987) #
CF: Hernandez (ugh)

Prior to the league shutting down, I believe it was either announced or strongly hinted that Grichuk would be the starting CF. I would assume/hope that is still the direction they plan to go in.
Cracka - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#387988) #
The 3 batter rule IS still in place in 2020 and I think this will influence roster construction for sure. Some teams will keep more bench bats as a competitive edge against the 3-batter rule: LOABGs (Left-handed One At-Bat Guys). Rowdy Tellez could fit this role.

John Northey - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#387989) #
Oh thank goodness. Hernandez was a poor LF who was moved to CF and the idea of him being there again this year was crazy imo. Grichuk isn't ideal either, but of the options available he is probably the best. Davis & Alford both would be better defensively but who knows if either could hit enough to justify it.

With bigger benches I suspect we'll see one of Davis/Alford out there late in the game while Hernandez gets some PA's in a corner while Fisher gets the bulk of RF PA's (Hernandez vs hard LH pitchers). Billy McKinney will be mixed in there too (forgot about him) I suspect.

Ugh. OF is full of 'meh' guys. Whoever has options will be left in camp I suspect. Gurriel and Grichuk are the only locks, with, from the right, Hernandez, Alford, Davis and from the left McKinney and Fisher.

Options left: Drury, Hernandez (thus both going to August summer camp I suspect). No options: Fisher, Alford.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#387990) #
Ideally Tellez plays full-time.
The Jays aren't drowning in left bats.

The Yanks have Paxton and Happ, but we'll see in a month.
Tampa has Snell, Yarbrough and McKay, but will probably use openers.
Boston has... Perez and Johnson? Meh. I'd start Tellez here.
Baltimore has... Means and Wade LeBlanc? Same.

The Phillies don't have a leftie starter and I don' t think there's too many in the NL East.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#387993) #
The Key for Tellez is contact, and that's something he showed much better in the minors with a swinging strike % below 10 in AA and AAA.
scottt - Monday, July 13 2020 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#387994) #
Vesting options will be prorated.
So that means Happ's 2021 options will vest if he gets 10 starts or 61 innings.

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#387997) #
It looks like after the intra-squad game, Austin Martin was taking ground ball at 3rd.
scottt - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#388000) #
At any rate, he's not playing this year.
The glaring need is in center, and third base is filled pretty much everywhere already.
It's certainly fine for the coaches to look at him anywhere.

ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#388001) #
It's hard to believe, when looking back to last year, that Aaron Sanchez had the third highest amount of innings pitched at 112. I had high hopes for him but now he seems like ancient history. This year's rotation looks so much better.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#388003) #
There will be Blue Jays baseball on TV tonight, finally.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#388004) #
Since it is an intra-squad game, the Jays are going to win !
bpoz - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#388006) #
The stud SPs if healthy will start about 12 games IMO. So G Cole and C Kershaw for example. Their first start is probably 4-6 IP. Then in a while 7/8 IP. A lot of better than quality innings.

I only see Ryu and possibly Pearson eventually going 6+. Maybe they will do 7/8.

The other SPs may go through the line up 2X possibly not 3X. An inning can go bad very fast ... walk, bloop, error would be factors. Maybe many short 2 inning appearances from Zeuch, Kay etc...
scottt - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#388009) #
Now they say that Happ and Rich Hill are excluded from any agreement reached between the owners and MLBPA. That's more than a little weird.
rtcaino - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#388010) #
"It's hard to believe, when looking back to last year, that Aaron Sanchez had the third highest amount of innings pitched at 112. I had high hopes for him but now he seems like ancient history. This year's rotation looks so much better."

Definitely feels like that was longer ago!
PeterG - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#388013) #
SWR slated for multiple innings tonight behind Shoemaker. Dolis will pitch in relief for other side. Jordan Groshans is starting at 3b. Martin is listed as sub and may see action.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#388014) #
It's tough for Groshans. 23 games in Lansing last season and now he is facing major league pitching. He will probably need some time to catch up to the level and get used to the pitching. The same goes for Austin Martin.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#388017) #
Guess I jumped the gun on SWR as did not know it was to be a 5 inning game. I thought Vlad looked good at 1B. The diving field of the grounder to his right and the stretch on the DP stood out. He was indecisive on the pop up but that will come with experience.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 14 2020 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#388018) #
I note that Pearson did not pitch tonight and he is not listed among tomorrows expected pitchers. I wonder if this is deliberate by the FO to keep him away from the cameras and the resulting clamour for him to make the team.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#388020) #
It's hard to believe since he only came up part way through last season but I'd say that Bo Bichette is now one of the leaders, if not the leader, of the team. He has a strong desire to win and won't hesitate to speak up if anybody slackens off.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#388022) #
Shoemaker threw 93 pitches it was reported. 4 off days until the next time he pitches. Hopefully that heavy pitch count was good rather than bad for his arm.
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#388023) #
Yeah,  the prospects can't skip AA and AAA.
Minor league baseball will be needed no matter what happens.
Although, this might  be a test of how much can be skipped so the team can save a few pennies.

scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#388024) #
There hasn't been anything wrong with Shoemaker's arm in a while.
Last year, it was the knee. With free agency, he's got a lot on the line.

scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#388025) #
What's the difficult part for Guerrero? Holding the runner? The shift? The throws in the dirt?
Linedrives from a lefty?
Fielding at first isn't harder than fielding at 3rd. The line is on the glove side, so that's probably easier.
In theory, he has the arm to step on the bag and hold an advancing runner, but that will probably be tested.

bpoz - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#388026) #
Last year Biggio K'd a lot and had a low BA. Many are saying that the ump cheated him. I have seen the umps show bad judgement and replay provides the proof. When Biggio establishes himself by having more ML time he probably gets better/fair calls from the umps. This should lead to a higher BA and more walks. If so Kevin Barkers suggests he become the lead off hitter. Barker also suggested Bo's higher contact rate would produce runs scored.
Cracka - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#388033) #
Santiago Espinal continues to impress and looks like a legit middle infielder and potential near-term Super-U guy. He has all 3 options left, so I expect that he'll be one of those swing guys that gets added to and from the roster during the season. He might even be a candidate for the 3-man taxi squad that travels with the team for road games.

I was very happy to hear that Shoemaker was up to 90 pitches. Looks like the veteran arms will be ready for a full workload of 100+ pitches by opening week. Last year, Shoemaker had 87, 92, 93, and 100 pitches in his first four starts. Ryu had 82, 87, 33 (left injured), 92, and 105 in his first five starts. Roark had 96, 93, 95, 86, and 98 in his first five starts.

30 man rosters are a fun quirk, but I don't want to see our 10th and 11th best bullpen arms very often this year.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#388034) #
Oh prospects can skip AA/AAA - they have in the past or had minimal time there. I'd say the summer camp will be a big help for the prospects there as they'll be facing near ML quality pitchers and hitters there and training with the best coaches the Jays have.

The last 2 to skip AA/AAA were Roberto Osuna (did pretty good I'd say with 20 saves and a 2.58 ERA as a 20 year old rookie who had all of 22 IP in A+), and Miguel Castro (not as good with just 12 IP and a 4.38 ERA as a 20 year old rookie with just 8 2/3 IP in A+).

Seems pitchers skip AA/AAA or virtually do more often that hitters. Last hitter here to do that was John Olerud who skipped the entire minor leagues to go 3 for 8 as a rookie call up, then had a 117 OPS+ as a full season rookie. So yes, it can happen and work, but you need a special player to do it. Osuna and Olerud landed in that category, Castro didn't. This years unique circumstances could lead to more doing it this year. We will need to wait and see. Should be fun.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#388038) #
Regarding the 10th and 11th bullpen arms this season, I don't know who they will be.

I always tried to evaluate a 7 or 8 man pen in past years. I would usually settle for 5 arms that I felt comfortable with. Closer and 2 setup men. 1 or 2 lefties in the 4/5 spot and the 2nd if possible in the 7/8 spot. Cecil and Loup were a big strength IMO.

In the past an arm could be sent down (10 days) or just rested at the ML level. The rules have changed for 2020. Also the 3 batter minimum rule.

So many exciting factors. A "frenzy" season.

I missed the pregame of yesterday (Wilner and partners). I tuned into the radio in the 2nd inning. Summer in the backyard is my preference. If Mike W said anything valuable I hope he repeats it, so I gain more understanding.
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#388039) #
I'm not convinced the umps will get better, but that's why we'll soon have the robo-umps.

I don't believe in switching guys around because of this and that.
Bichette is a great lead off and Biggio is a left bat who let the next guy see a lot of pitches.
I think Bichette before Biggio is perfect as it is.
Biggio isn't scoring from first on a Bichette hit.
Maybe Bichette hits a double and then Biggio walks. I don't see that as a problem needing fixing.
If the 3/4 hitters can't get the ball out of the infield there are real problems.

rtcaino - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#388040) #
"The last 2 to skip AA/AAA were Roberto Osuna (did pretty good I'd say with 20 saves and a 2.58 ERA as a 20 year old rookie who had all of 22 IP in A+), and Miguel Castro (not as good with just 12 IP and a 4.38 ERA as a 20 year old rookie with just 8 2/3 IP in A+)."

It definitely seems that having SP prospects come up in the BP is the pattern where skipping time in the high minors gets tried and is successful most often.

Otherwise, it is the generational talents where that works.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#388041) #
Another factor is if the baseball causes problems. That hurt A Sanchez a lot.
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#388042) #
The taxi squad guys won't be playing, so you don't want to put a prospect there.

For the bullpen, if the 10th and 11th guys are Merryweather, or hatch, than I don't mind seeing what they can do.

Right now, we got
1. Giles
2. Bass
3. Yamaguchi
4. Dolis
5. Gaviglio
6. Romano
7. Pannone
8. Waguespack
9. Reid-Folay
10. Kay
11. Cole (no room on the 40 roster though).

scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#388043) #
It's easier for a pitcher to skip AA/AAA.
Especially if they end up in the bullpen.
That's totally different than taking your top 3B prospect and starting him 2 days a week.

tercet - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#388045) #
Ty Tice deserves a spot in the bullpen imo, he had by far the best splits of any 23-26 yr old AA/AAA reliever last year that throws 95-100 holding hitters to 196/295/269. Romano got destroyed in AAA and the majors last year, not sure what all the hype with him is.
James W - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#388046) #
What's the difficult part for Guerrero? Holding the runner? The shift? The throws in the dirt? Linedrives from a lefty?

All of the above pretty much. Add footwork to the list. It's a different angle that he won't be used to - hopefully he picks up on it quickly.
rtcaino - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#388047) #
hopefully he picks up on it quickly.

Add me to the chorus of those who would have preferred he had mdae the switch much earlier. We have a chance to make some noise this year, not the time to be learning a new position, imo.

In other news, this has been my first use of italics. Easier than I thought it would be. The paragraph thing took a minute to figure out, though.

rtcaino - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#388049) #
Add me to the chorus of those whom would have preferred he had made the switch much earlier.

Sorry, Dewey.

christaylor - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#388052) #
Dewey might still chime in. Who is correct in this sentence, not whom -- works like he/him.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#388053) #
So, it's come to this. I'm watching an intra-squad White Sox game. I like that they're using the "washroom-man" logo on their jersey.

For some reason isn't carrying the Jays intra-squads, or at least yesterdays' wasn't and today's not listed.
rtcaino - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#388054) #
Hmmm. I thought I would have been the subject and the chorus of people would have been the object. Which is perhaps an elementary consideration of who/whom utilization.
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#388055) #
Romano wasn't healthy last year. His stuff is looking very good right now and the velo, slider combo will be excellent the first month, as hitter will struggle to catch up, and that's half the season.

Merryweather is also looking very good. Sitting 97/98mph.
He thinks he gets a shot. In the pen.

Btw, this year the 60IL is down to 45 days.

ramone - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#388058) #
Merryweather is hurt already again.
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#388063) #
Font is on the IL.
Merryweather is day to day.

Not much is said about Reid-Foley.
It looks like Thornton has the 4th spot and 5th is between Borucki, Hatch, Waguespack and Kay.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#388064) #
Hey guys, don't make me start a grammar thread :)

So - what happened in that 5 inning "game" last night? Just seeing bits and pieces, who pitched, who played? I don't have Sportsnet, or cable at all for that matter, so I'm curious. Just over a week until games count again!

I made a mistake earlier - I counted the Boston exhibition games as real ones. So to get Pearson the time off needed to get an extra year of control the Jays need a 5th starter at least once other than him. Very do-able and I see no reason why they wouldn't.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#388065) #
The FO did well in signing all 5 picks.

Anyone have news on Int'l signings?

Are those young Latin prospects "trapped" in Florida still there?

John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#388066) #
The IFA signing is shifted to January ( you can read it here).
scottt - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#388067) #
They could just bullpen a start.
rtcaino - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#388069) #
Are those young Latin prospects "trapped" in Florida still there?

We might start seeing the first trend of baseball prospects defecting from Florida to Cuba.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#388071) #
Right now I expect every start to be near bullpen starts. 4-6 innings max for all starters. 1 long man each game for 2-3 innings next (ideally throws opposite to the starter), then short men from there on out depending on situation. Assume 3 guys after first 2, so 5 pitchers a game first time through. Thus 25 pitching appearances, but just 1 or 2 days off for each reliever so max of 17 needed to make it work. And that is a worst case. I'm sure the Jays have a plan for combos (tandem starters) and a plan for an opener (1-2 innings max) here and there as appropriate.

This is going to be a weird year. Wonder how it will end up? Love Bichette's statement "Short season, long season, I’ve told you guys plenty of times that I think we're going to compete, regardless of 162 or 60,” Biggio also is of the right mindset - "Wherever we end up playing is where we end up playing.” Both quotes from the Jays website.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 15 2020 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#388072) #
LH Starters: Ryu, Kay, Pannone, Borucki
RH Starters: Shoemaker, Anderson, Thornton, Yamaguchi, Pearson, SRF, Waguespack

I think those are the only ones who were in the starter battle - Ryu, Shoemaker the only locks with Anderson hurt, Thornton likely, Pearson a lock once he gets an extra year of control I suspect, the rest in a big fight.

LH Reliever: All NRI: Moran, Snead, Bergen, Rzepczynski is gone it seems.
all others are RH relievers. So many...

Given the lack of LH pitchers I expect Kay, Pannone, Borucki will all be there at first if healthy. All 3 can be 2-3 inning guys easily. I expect at least one of the 3 NRI LHP to make it as well.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#388079) #
I think Kay has pretty good stuff and his command is better than his numbers in the minors last year, but part of me feels he eventually settles in as an elite set-up man in the Brett Cecil mold.
scottt - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#388084) #
Could be. I think we often see guys with only one good pitch do really well initially but struggle later after some exposure. So it's hard to predict who will do what. Kay doesn't have a huge arsenal but the stuff is decent and the control  is there, just maybe not the command.

I think he'd have a shot at cracking the rotation anywhere in the division.

Waguespack, on the other hand, looks like he will need some time to fine tune.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#388085) #
I missed the first part of last night's game so the first pitcher I saw was AJ Cole and he really impressed me with his velocity and location. Espinal showed a good arm at short and could be a useful player eventually.
bpoz - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#388087) #
Thanks for the info on the Int'l signing period.

The most recent Covid stuff in the other thread went over my head. I like to think I am supported by very high intelligence and knowledge by members of da Box. Thanks. As a person that goes through life with little knowledge I rely on being careful. ie In winter never drive to Barrie 400 highway because a whiteout could kill my family on my way to a kids hockey tournament.

I am loving that Bo, Biggio and da Box are getting into extreme preparedness for this unique season. Also nice that Atkins and Montoyo are not saying anything specific.

I just want to be a supporting fan of the Jays and da Box. Cheers!!
scottt - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#388092) #
I think team Grich threw a no-hitter.
bpoz - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#388093) #
Yes no hitter. J Romano faced 3 batters. Bo for sure, Biggio and ? Apparently Bo could not touch him. K Barker was impressed.

2 lineups with the best hitters divided into the 2 teams. So there were some soft spots in the lineups. Obviously also some tough spots. Team Grich pitchers only went 1 inning each.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#388096) #
John Lott has his usual wonderful article up over at the Athletic on the pandemic and baseball.  His bottom line, expressed more kindly and thoughtfully than I ever could, is: "take the year off".

There's been a view expressed here by several people that Austin Martin should be turned into a centerfielder because that is the area of greatest need for the club.  I don't quite agree with that.  We don't know enough about whether Martin would be a better defensive third baseman or centerfielder.  He doesn't have the raw speed which is so valuable for a centerfielder, and it may be that he'd be a better defensive third baseman that centerfielder.  And the club does have a need at third base in the not too distant future, now that the club has made (the obviously correct) decision to move Vlad Jr. off the position. 

Which brings me to Jordan Groshans.  If there is one player in the Blue Jay system who has lost the most to the pandemic, it's probably Groshans.  After missing most of last year to an injury, he's going to lose almost all of this one to the pandemic. He turns 21 in November and he's had 23 games in A ball so far.  He's probably a year behind Martin in the development curve, and it's quite possible that he's a right-fielder when he arrives. 

christaylor - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#388100) #
It's worth taking a moment to remember how very unlikely things can happen and sometimes these things are remarkable, surprising, and worth smiling about. For example, 10 years ago today Bengie Molina hit for the cycle.
bpoz - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#388106) #
J Romano being hyped. Looks like he may be a 1 inning guy.
John Northey - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#388112) #
I'm hoping Groshans gets lots of reps in summer camp. That could help him a lot facing pitchers who are near ML quality even if the games don't count. Good chance to really refine his skills so when games get going in 2021 he is ready for AA at the start, move to AAA by mid-season and set for the majors in 2022.

As to Martin - there is a general rule to keep guys at the toughest defensive position they can handle for as long as they can handle it. So if he can do SS/2B/3B keep him there until he shows he can't handle it. Then do CF/RF/LF. Only do CF if you think he can make the leap to the majors this year (and he might be more needed at 3B) - I'd be very surprised if the Jays do it, but not shocked as we saw Olerud do that (straight to the majors) years ago with a lot of success.

2021 will show how well each team used this year of training only for their prospects. Lets hope the Jays do it well and find a few gems and polish the others.
scottt - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#388116) #
The media has to talk about something.
The bullpen looks interesting.
Giles can be very good.
Bass is not bad.
Romano and Dolis have been throwing really well. Good heat.
Yamaguchi hasn't shown much yet.
Cole could be pretty good too, but they'll have to make a spot to keep him.

Ryu will probably regress. Might not last the full 2 months. Still a huge improvement.
Roark should be OK. Shoemaker was lights out last year.
And then you got Pearson.

The current Injury List:
Drury, Davis, Anderson, Diaz, Luciano, Perez, Font.

PeterG - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#388117) #
The word is out via Provincial Minister MacLeod that Jays have been given permission to play in TO. It has not been confirmed and team won't make any comment. It seems that they may have been told that a letter is coming but has not yet arrived. Apparently management is meeting with the players to go over rules of conduct so it seems likely that this is a go.
rtcaino - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#388119) #
As to Martin - there is a general rule to keep guys at the toughest defensive position they can handle for as long as they can handle it. So if he can do SS/2B/3B keep him there until he shows he can't handle it. Then do CF/RF/LF. Only do CF if you think he can make the leap to the majors this year (and he might be more needed at 3B) - I'd be very surprised if the Jays do it, but not shocked as we saw Olerud do that (straight to the majors) years ago with a lot of success.

The downside to that strategy is having him potentially switching positions at or near the Major League level. (Like Vladdy this year.) Potentially, while we are competing for the postseason and results matter. (Hopefully like Vladdy this year!)

Mike Green - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#388123) #
CF is generally considered between third base and second base in the defensive spectrum, with not a lot of daylight between the three positions.  Martin could theoretically play any of the three.  I don't think that it's a situation like VGJ at all.  It's about finding the position which best suits his particular skill set. Or maybe it is so balanced that you try to make him a Tony Phillips/Cesar Tovar/Marwin Gonzalez type player- that would be my last choice personally.
hypobole - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#388130) #
Seems the Jays have provincial approval, but still waiting for federal approval. Also the home and home with the Nats, which includes our home opener, is in a state of flux on both sides. The Nats are exploring alternate sites for their home games.
Paul D - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#388131) #
It seems like the team has a preference for being in Toronto. I don't get that from the fan base. Why do you think the team wants to play in Toronto? Easier to keep some staff on the payroll that way?
scottt - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#388132) #
There's a number of things.
There's money to be invested in Buffalo and/or Dunedin to play there, the parks are just not MLB caliber.
The infection rate in Toronto is a fraction of what's in the US. It seems quite safer.
And if the rules are stricter here, the players are more likely to take fewer chances, than otherwise.

Of course, the fan base just want every foreigner out of the country.

scottt - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#388133) #
Infield/outfield isn't necessary an easy change.
CF requires range. He has that. The arm is his weakest tool.

The Marwin Gonzalez type is exceptional.
Betts came up as a second baseman and split time between 2B, CF an RF in 2014.
Has that hurt him in anyway?

If Martin hits, they'll find room for him.
It's never a sure thing, but it's looking pretty good.

John Northey - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#388134) #
Yeah, no shortage of guys moving down the defensive spectrum in the majors. Robin Yount was a All-Star at SS before switching to CF and being an All-Star there. Craig Biggio was a catcher when he came up (2 time all-star), moved to 2B (5 time all-star), moved to CF, moved to LF, back to 2B all in the majors (even back to CA for 2 innings in his 2nd last game).
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#388137) #
Paul Molitor started at shortstop, then moved to second to make room for Yount. He then played center field and right field, then third base and DH.
John Northey - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#388139) #
Don't forget how Molitor in the 1993 World Series went to 3B for the first time in years (since 1990 when he played 2 games there, 112 in 1989) so the Jays could get him into a game (2-4, HBP, double, 2 r, 2 RBI in a 15-14 win). Checking the game - weak bunt single by Dave Hollins to Molitor in the 7th, Kevin Stocker hit a ground ball (out) to him in the 7th as well, and that was it for plays to 3B from what I can tell in the game. Can't recall if that bunt single was one anyone else could've made a play on or not offhand. Molitor also played 1B in game 3 putting the best hitter in MLB that year on the bench (Olerud) but he went 3-4 with a HR & triple so it worked well. Game 5 he was at 3B again but just 1 for 4 (Jays lost 2-0) - Mariano Duncan grounded out to 3B in the 3rd, not much to talk about that game. All the games in Toronto he obviously DH'ed.

Fun going over cases where a guy was put at a position unfamiliar with in the majors. But I won't go over the bizarre Cecil Fielder at 2B/3B experiment by Jimy Williams. More recent would be Troy Glaus at SS in 2006 (8 games, the only 8 he started a game at SS in although he did play 10 games late at SS as well for a total of 15 innings). Josh Donaldson also was put at SS in 2017 after just 1 inning there before in the majors (2 starts, 2 late in game that year).
rtcaino - Thursday, July 16 2020 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#388140) #
More recent would be Troy Glaus at SS in 2006 (8 games, the only 8 he started a game at SS in although he did play 10 games late at SS as well for a total of 15 innings).

With Ted Lilly pitching, iirc, because of his fly ball tendencies.

Eephus - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 05:27 AM EDT (#388141) #
I recall a weird game recently where Kendrys Morales was thrust into 3B duties in extra innings. He made one play and it was awkward as all heck, heh.
bpoz - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#388142) #
We know that every team tends to hold back players for service time issues.

Also the Jays have said they will not promote anyone until the player is ready. We have definitely seen this in the minors. Bo was not held back as far as I could tell. He had to overcome 1 slump in AA and 1 in AAA. Also a broken hand I believe in AAA. Then he came up.

Regarding Vlad: just my opinion is that in late 2018 "he had nothing more to learn in the minors". So he had to get out of the minors. He never struggled in the minors at all. His weight and defense and position are very different issues.

A Martin will have to succeed at all the minor league stations he is assigned to before he is considered for service time issues and a ML promotion. Right now he is getting typical hype from the minor league gurus.
scottt - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#388145) #
The Nationals have reach an agreement with the (municipal?) government.

Players who are exposed to COVID-19 but test negative and are cleared to return will have to quarantine at their residences for 14 days when they are away from the ballpark. However, they will be allowed to play as long as they follow MLB protocols. Those players will also be permitted to play on the road, but they will have to stay in their hotel rooms when they are not at the park.

Well, as long as they test negative, they should able to enter Canada, but I sure hope all visiting players will have to stay in their hotel rooms when they are not at the ballpark.

Mike Green - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#388146) #
With a 30% false negative rate, it means that a significant number will have the virus and are good candidates to pass it on to opponents during the game. 

Ordinary civilians who return from the States and who have no indication of COVID-19 exposure are still required to have no contact for 14 days.  The difference between the way ordinary civilians and ballplayers will be treated under the Blue Jay plan is a sure thing to lead to resentment.  All so that the baseball game can be televised from here.  Canadians have essentially no financial interest in this plan whatsoever; the only beneficiaries are Rogers.

Of course, the better answer is John Lott's.  Cancel the season. 
scottt - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#388152) #
I don't know about false negative rates. Maybe that should be in the other thread.

I'm under impression the Blue Jays will remain in isolation.
Some people are concerned about the staff in the hotel and in the park, but that's no worse than the staff in hospitals or in meat processing plants. They will have to protect themselves.

Gregorius is going to play with a mask on because he has a kidney condition.
I hope it's not just a cloth mask.
scottt - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#388154) #
Puig tested positive and just like that his deal with Atlanta is off. Ouch.
John Northey - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#388156) #
Strongly recommend reading This Article as it has a ton of fun K's by Ken Huckaby. Wow has he added some weight since he retired - or is just using catchers gear that is way too small if you want to be generous. His K calls are fun to watch although I bet a lot of the Jays hitters didn't feel like that.
hypobole - Friday, July 17 2020 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#388157) #
I wasn't enthused about the Huckaby article (was hoping to find real Jays news this morning), but I did read it and yeah, it was a tonne of fun.
bpoz - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#388164) #
H Perez assigned to Extended ST on rehab.
bpoz - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#388165) #
I will put this in this thread because it is more baseball IMO than covid.

Covid: I am only going through the covid thread once a day now just in case I learn something helpful for health and family reasons. Thank you to all.

Baseball: ST next year 2021 will be scheduled to start in Feb. I guess.
Flu season will/should start in Oct 2020.
Info on what is going on for the new flu season will be available by Jan 2021 and ongoing until the summer or whenever. Info about the whole world as well.

So the optimist in me is hoping that all countries can deal better with the 2nd phase (fall season). The USA especially Florida and Arizona hopefully have learned and are smart enough to make ST happen. Then we take it from there for the whole season. The Arizona Fall League if it happens will be an indicator of some sort.
John Northey - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#388170) #
If a vaccine is found (possible) by sometime in January or February then I suspect 2021 will be a 'normal' season. If not then 2021 will be a mess followed by a potential strike or lockout for 2022. Sigh. The optimist in me hopes for the best, but the pessimist is ruling at the moment when it comes to this.
PeterG - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#388171) #
Federal decision on Jays coming today.
SK in NJ - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#388175) #
TORONTO (AP) _ AP source says Blue Jays denied Canadian government approval to play games in Toronto amid pandemic.
scottt - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#388176) #
Yikes, I guess the rest of the pool can stay in Toronto.
AWeb - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#388177) #
So no Toronto Bluejays this year. I am surprised they made this call, even though I agree with it. Hope they play in Buffalo and not outbreak central in Florida. At this point just no one getting seriously ill on the team would be a victory. Still hard to believe mlb is really going to keep pushing ahead.
johnny was - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#388179) #
Absolutely the right call, and just a day after Gregor Chisholm gave the government cover with a poll showing about 60% of Jays fans don't want the them playing in Canada this year. That being said, I'd rather the team opt of the season than attempt to play out of Dunedin.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#388181) #
I wonder why the decision took so long. I thought there'd be a decision a long time before now, but the federal government dragged its heels.

Anyway, now they have to scramble to find a "home" for this season. Buffalo apparently is not up to television lighting standards, and we all know what's happening to the state Dunedin's in. Could the Jays just play all their "home" games at the other teams' park? It would be weird to play games in a minor league stadium when the Jay's opponent's major league park is just sitting there empty at the same time.
scottt - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#388183) #
Spending 2 months on the road? That would be exhausting. And what about the players' families?

I'm not sure if they need approval from MLB to play in Buffalo.
It would suck if the other teams just force them to Florida.

Paul D - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#388185) #
Might be too late now that the schedule is created, but couldn't they play in Detroit or Boston or some other MLB city when the home team is on the road? Or 1pm games when the home team is playing at 7?

I guess that would require those facilities to have 4 MLB caliber clubhouses
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#388186) #
There a lot of people who spend more than two months away from their families for work, who make a lot less money than the Blue Jays. If its too much for some they can choose to opt out. The right call was to keep the Jays and traveling teams out of the country.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#388190) #
I'd play in Dunedin rather than Buffalo - more familiarity,
Jays new facilities & rehab set-up should be ready.
John Northey - Saturday, July 18 2020 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#388192) #
I'd pick Buffalo for the games - tough to get any upgrades done now, but the Jays should've known this was coming. No sane person (insert obligatory insult to politicians) would let 40 or so people from COVID hotspots like Florida to come up here regularly over the next couple of months. Especially after some players said no way they could stay locked up for that long.

Buffalo is physically close thus shouldn't affect the schedule at all, in fact should make things easier with no border concerns. Any upgrades will just help the Jays with their relationship with the Bisons long term. This can be a net win if done right.

Dunedin would be monumentally stupid to use imo. Florida is a disaster zone for COVID with all reports I've seen suggesting mask using is still minimal thus suggesting it will get worse before it gets better. At least NY state is close to Canada in how it is handling it. Plus then 2 opponents will be in the same state which makes travel easier (fewer rules to worry about gong back and forth). Lets hope the Jays were working on this as a backup plan already and have some of the paperwork done.
scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#388195) #
Playing in Detroit or Pittsburgh would invalidate the entire regional schedule.

I presume Rodgers is trying to make a bit of money off the games, which won't happen if they are played at 1pm. That would also alienate the visiting team. The whole point is to have baseball on TV every evening.

scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#388196) #
The no sane person includes the mayor, the premier, the provincial ministers, the chief medical officers (Ontario and Toronto). Obviously, it's a political decision. Baseball is not as popular as hockey and the anti-American sentiment is high right now.
christaylor - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#388197) #
Silly question and perhaps I'm missing something, but why hasn't it been floated that every Jays home game turned into one on the road? It's not as if the road teams are going to run into other events?
I see the politics of this for the Feds, but I still think that the NHL's plan poses a bigger risk, especially given the difference in close contact in Hockey v. Baseball. Also, the larger number of people who'll be in the "bubble" leads to more opportunities for it to leak.
christaylor - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#388198) #
Dunedin is the only place I'd be worried about -- for the safety of the players. The team has already experienced one outbreak there. FL's response has been abysmal, basically because their governor is play-acting a mini-Trump since he's been elected.
christaylor - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#388199) #
With a road-only schedule, it's probable that many players would get to see their families more than the Rogers Center bubble. With the shortened schedule, I don't think a road-only plan would be as exhausting and they'd be able to get out and about more than in the Rogers center bubble. For example, travel from NY to MA or vice versa doesn't require a 14-day quarantine.
bpoz - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#388200) #
Shapiro spoke very well. Dunedin seems to be the most likely.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#388201) #
Is the Texas Rangers old stadium still standing?
Mike Green - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#388202) #
FWIW, I agree with those who say that hockey shouldn't be played either.  Way too much risk of transmission between players during the game.

You don't have to be anti-American to oppose the Blue Jays' plan.  I think Van Johnson is great and can't wait to make it to Savannah when all this is over.  And Nashville and Memphis and New Orleans and Atlanta. Most of them have minor league franchises incidentally, and I hope the franchises survive.
hypobole - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#388203) #
There's only risk of transmission if covid actually enters the bubble.
Cracka - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#388204) #
Looking ahead at the schedule, there are only 5 "home games" between now and August 11th. The first two are against the Nationals as the back-end of a home & home series; the next three are against the Phillies. Assuming stadium availability, it might be easier if the team just stays in Washington and then travels a few hours to Philadelphia, playing their "home" games in the visitor's park for that week. This would provide 13 additional days to get the Buffalo facilities ready and to make arrangements for their players & families, etc. The players would benefit from not having to travel after their July 28th game and getting to play 5 additional games in big league facilities.
John Northey - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#388205) #
Makes a ton of sense. Far more than going to Dunedin in COVID central. The only reason they'd go to Florida would be if many in the Jays braintrust are in the "COVID is a hoax" or "COVID isn't that bad" category. I don't see why any sane person would choose to go to Florida if any other option was available. The idea of doing those first 5 'home' games at the opponents park makes a TON of sense so they have enough time to get Buffalo set up properly. Then have the 30 non-day to day roster guys train in Toronto if possible so they are physically close if needed. That they could get an exemption for most likely much like they did for summer camp.
scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#388206) #
Bass has said that the players want to play in a major league ballpark.

They'd rather share a stadium just to have that "atmosphere" versus being in a ballpark that might not be ready, their clubhouses might be very small or they might not have enough batting cages for the hitters.

Kinda like flying first class,  those who can afford it don't want to hear about economy.
Doesn't matter which plane is safer.

"We are definitively at a disadvantage compared to other teams, I feel like, where they get to play at their home ballparks and their families are with them..."

scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#388208) #
Ryu said "Obviously, you play half the season at home, so there's definitely some sort of comfort level you develop over time.

We just have to get used to a new  environment and wherever we end up being, we have to get used to that place."

scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#388209) #
I see comments on some sites wondering how come MLB didn't go with hubs like the NHL?

Because  obviously you can put 10 teams in a hub and play 5 games a day.

christaylor - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#388210) #
It's too morbid to make it a cuttlefish bet, but odds are at least one NHL player will test positive, especially given the false positive rate of the current tests. Even excluding false positives, I expect there will be some cases among those in the bubble. There's been a recent increase in Ontario. Playing a game with close contact and droplets flying at the best of times (e.g., when one only had to be concerned with the flu). It's a bit a great idea. I suspect the general public will be safe (as they would be had the Jays played) but I hope what I see as almost inevitable doesn't produce a serious case for one of the players. Please, prove me wrong NHL. This probably belongs in the other thread, but I felt such a blase comment about it not getting in the bubble would do well with a response.
John Northey - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#388211) #
I think MLB wants to maximize TV revenue/profit thus wanted as many games at night as possible. You can't do that if everyone is at a single complex too easily. Spring training facilities might have made it work, but Florida and Arizona screwed up royally (too many who think masks are for wimps or something).
scottt - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#388212) #
5 3hours games spread over 20 hours each day so that they have time to disinfect in between?
hypobole - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#388213) #
christaylor - my comment re: the NHL bubble wasn't blase. It can be done. Look at Vietnam, a country with 94 million people and a lengthy border with China. They have had 383 cases total and zero deaths.

It's false negatives that are a concern, not false positives. Everyone prior to entry has to pass 3 tests 48 hrs apart. Then they are tested daily once inside. Could something happen? Yes. But I would guess the people inside the bubble, even with droplets flying will be much safer than if they had all just stayed at home and went about their normal lives.
Here's a summary:

christaylor - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#388214) #
hypobole: false positives are rare, but not zero. The more testing one does the more likely one will catch one, obviously. Let's say the false positive rate is, as claimed at around 0.01% What is it 50 players/team, 15 teams, to frank I don't how many days? Sure, if it is a false positive, they shut it down and re-test and test all who were in contact and wait. From a clinical perspective, yes, false negatives are more alarming, but with all that testing that probability sums up to some pretty good odds of a false positive. The NHL players and those inside the bubble will probably be fine, then again things probably would have been fine if the Jays played in Toronto. Recall the Jays were subject to the quarantine act? The players in the NHL bubble won't face those penalties. I don't feel like reading the specifics of the NHL plan, but I'm guessing that the penalties for sneaking outside the bubble aren't as stiff as the quarantine act.
hypobole - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#388215) #
Not sure why there is any false positive concern. So a player gets needlessly isolated and retested and may cause some games to be rescheduled.
hypobole - Sunday, July 19 2020 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#388216) #
Also, as opposed to the NHL'ers, the Jays and their opponents would would have been crossing the border on multiple occasions. Apples and oranges.
scottt - Monday, July 20 2020 @ 05:41 AM EDT (#388217) #
Does it matter if you are crossing the border multiple times if you're in isolation?  The answer is no.

The  NHL is a fake bubble because it's too big and they will have exceptions.
I don't believe that they will keep individuals from crossing the borders.
And they won't be in isolation after the 14 days.

scottt - Monday, July 20 2020 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#388218) #
Truck drivers cross the border every day. Some  might have crossed hundred of times since March.
Nobody talks about it because we don't want everybody to do the same in an uncontrolled way.

85bluejay - Saturday, July 25 2020 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#388381) #
Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2020 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#388387) #

Noam Chomsky has an opinion.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2020 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#388424) #
I don't quite agree with Chomsky. Trump in my view embodies a longstanding icon of America- the snake oil salesman/entertainer. Madman isn't, I think, accurate.

It's the negative side of the enterprise/initiative aspect of their culture. That aspect does have its positive sides. The covfefe tweet would not have been possible without American innovation.
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