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The Jays non-tendered two players today - AJ Cole and Travis Shaw.

Shaw was expected as he was exactly replacement level last year (0.0 bWAR) and entering his age 31 season was unlikely to improve. Over the last 2 years his OPS+ is 65. Ugh. His expected salary would've been roughly $4 mil.

A bigger surprise was AJ Cole who was reasonably effective in the pen last year (3.09 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 7.7 K/9) if unspectacular. He was probably not going to get more than double the ML minimum so net savings are in the $500k range (expected to get around $1 mil in arbitration).

Another rumor that is new is the Jays being interested in Jean Segura who is a 2B/3B/SS for the Phillies who is a bit overpaid I suspect ($14.85 mil in 2021 and 2022 with a $17 mil option for 2023 with a $1 mil buyout). Lifetime 98 OPS+. Had a great year in 2016 with 6.4 bWAR. Lifetime 12.2 UZR/150 at 3B (180 innings last year only), -0.1 at 2B, -2.1 at SS (over 1000 innings at both 2B and SS). He is entering his age 31 season. ZIPS sees him as a 1-2 WAR player for the next 2 years. A meh guy who has some potential for a 'wow' season given his history, but I'd put him as a backup option after quite a few other guys.
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Thomas - Wednesday, December 02 2020 @ 09:13 PM EST (#392491) #
I'm a little surprised about Cole.

He was 5th in bullpen innings, behind Hatch, Dolis, one player who was largely ineffective (Yamaguchi) and a free agent (Bass). The Jays have lost two of their more effective bullpen arms and, even with Romano and Merryweather expected to be more prominent next year, bullpen depth is good. The savings aren't substantial over the minimum, either.

Fangraphs predicted this a month ago or so when they did non-tender predictions and I thought they called it wrong.
Thomas - Wednesday, December 02 2020 @ 09:14 PM EST (#392492) #
He was also 7th on the Blue Jays in WAR (according to Baseball-Reference)! I didn't know that.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, December 02 2020 @ 09:20 PM EST (#392493) #
I am extremely surprised by the Cole non-tender, his stat cast number were good and I thought the Jays valued this numbers more.

There are lots of interesting non tender candidates to sign, including Kyle Schwarber.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 02 2020 @ 09:22 PM EST (#392494) #
Thumbs up on both decisions, I was hoping for that result - I think the Jays can do better and the 2 roster spots are more valuable.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 02 2020 @ 10:17 PM EST (#392495) #
I like both decisions as well. Cole was a fungible bullpen piece, and 40 man roster spots are going to be very important for the team this winter. They can do better, both with the roster spot and in the bullpen.
bpoz - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 07:33 AM EST (#392498) #
There are some fairly good players that were non tendered. K Schwarber.
bpoz - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 08:40 AM EST (#392499) #
Cole was good and also cheap given we have great financial flexibility.

I expect a lot of NRI to be added. I also expect the D Fisher experiment to be over.

Trades are possible. We have prospects.

In the Rule 5 I wonder if we could grab Riley Pint off Colorado and use him in a similar way as E Luciano. He would occupy a spot on the 26 or whatever active roster.
scottt - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 08:46 AM EST (#392500) #
They can do better than a lot of the guys on the 40. Is that the right question?
Are all other guys more valuable, directly or as trade pieces?

I see it as a precautionary move. Maybe they'll sign a better high leverage bullpen guy.
Maybe they'll just re-sign Cole later. There are a lot of non-tenders and many more newsworthy.
Cole can handle left bats. I don't know if Reid-Foley or Tice can do that.
I sort of expect a veteran bullpen piece to be added.

Sean Segura? It's an upgrade over Panik or Espinal for sure, but 30M+ over 2 years is not cheap.
And if depends what they would have to give. Most teams are looking at saving money.

bpoz - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 09:03 AM EST (#392502) #
Atkins impact acquisition for 2021 just got easier. He has to offer opportunity to play plus a decent financial deal.

Atkins loves quantity. He can keep them on the NRI roster or alternate site until they earn their way onto the active roster.

A Zwelling said teams don't know a lot of details about the 2021 season. # games and playoff structure.

I expect TB to load up on leftover players. They did that successfully with F Rodney a few years back. Boston will spend money and grab the best but it does not often work out for them.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 09:50 AM EST (#392503) #
Schwarber is interesting, but I imagine that there will be a fair bit of demand.  He's a natural fit for some club in the medium term as a DH but probably can be an acceptable defensive corner outfielder for a few years.

I am a little surprised about Cole.  I have no idea whether the Blue Jays will have 6 better relievers than him on the roster when the bell rings.  Personally, I'd rather have him than Yamaguchi out there but it's a marginal thing and the team has committed to Yamaguchi.  Meh- in an ordinary year, you wouldn't swap out a youngish inexpensive reliever who has had a good year and won't cost much but this is no ordinary year.

dalimon5 - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 11:48 AM EST (#392504) #
David Dahl would be the gamble I take.
John Northey - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 12:05 PM EST (#392505) #
I suspect many guys being dumped now will be looking hard for opportunity. The Jays pen should benefit given how many guys they mixed in last year and no established closer right now. If the Jays stick with Vlad at 3B then I expect them to have no trouble signing decent infielders looking for a chance to play as well. Outfielders will be tough to get though as we have 3 starters who are young and likely to play everyday. I expect a decent 1B/DH (platoon type so unable to get a good deal elsewhere) to be signed if they don't upgrade at 3B this winter to be there in case Tellez slips.
Parker - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 12:05 PM EST (#392506) #
You beat me to it, dalimon5. I'd really like the Jays to go after Dahl.

I'd try to get Daniel Robertson too, although the organization seems to like Espinal for that role.
Parker - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 12:14 PM EST (#392507) #
Eddie Rosario has finished in the Top 20 for MVP votes the last two years running and is now looking for a job.

Joe Carter is his Baseball Reference most similar batter through age 28.

I'm here all week, folks.
cascando - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 02:38 PM EST (#392508) #
David Dahl seems kind of like the player they want Derek Fisher to become.

Until last year anyway, when Dahl was much more like the player Derek Fisher already is.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 03:10 PM EST (#392509) #
Dahl had shoulder/oblique problems from January-September this year and had surgery at the end of September for a tear of his labrum.  I imagine that he won't be an early sign.
hypobole - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 06:31 PM EST (#392510) #
As far as Rosario, not sure why we want another OF who shouldn't play CF. He's a slightly better version of Grichuk overall. Oh, and since no team wanted Rosario at a salary about equal to Grichuk's, good luck trading Grichuk.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 07:01 PM EST (#392511) #
It seems a lot of the top non-tender players had defensive issues.
ayjackson - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 07:45 PM EST (#392512) #
Just noticing that Worf has a nice Andre Dawson stance in there. (I mean, if you're watching DS9.)

Thomas - Thursday, December 03 2020 @ 07:47 PM EST (#392513) #
That makes sense, as offensive contributions are weighted more heavily in arbitration than defensive stats, aside from some of the traditional defensive stats, so someone like Schwarber would get a salary that reflects their counting stats, but may not take into account at a proportionate level what he can't do in the outfield.
Parker - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 10:41 AM EST (#392515) #
As far as Rosario, not sure why we want another OF who shouldn't play CF. He's a slightly better version of Grichuk overall. Oh, and since no team wanted Rosario at a salary about equal to Grichuk's, good luck trading Grichuk.

Oh, I wasn't advocating for acquiring Rosario. Really it was just a comment on how far the writers are behind the front offices when it comes to understanding player value. I think the Joe Carter comp is hilarious because Rosario must've gotten his MVP votes from the same writers who voted for Carter back in the day, assuming any of them are still alive.

While I don't want the Jays to pursue Rosario (who is clearly not a legit MVP candidate) I still find it remarkable that an "MVP candidate" in his prime is currently unemployed.
Parker - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 10:47 AM EST (#392516) #
Thomas makes a great point, which I missed entirely. I hadn't even considered the gulf between front office player valuation and arbitration valuation. These organizations aren't just dumping overrated players, they're dumping overrated players who are about to become even MORE overrated in their arbitration hearings.
scottt - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 11:38 AM EST (#392517) #
It's very quiet.

The Mets were supposed to be after Realmuto, but it sounds like they would prefer to sign James McCann and improve elsewhere. I don't think the Yankees have room to spend 30M behind the plate. Not sure if the Angels are eager to lose a draft pick, given that they finished so low. Same for the Nationals. Astros, Blue Jays, Reds, Phillies and Cards are the other possible suitors.

The Mets seems more interested in Springer even though, their outfield is even more crowded than
Other suitors include White Sox, Phillies, Cards and Nationals.

Haruki Nishikawa has been posted. He's mostly a center fielder. .296 .419 .388 in Japan last year.  5 homers, 15 doubles, 3 triples. Stole 37 bases in 42 tries. He has 3 Japanese Gold Gloves. He's 28 and must be signed in the next 30 days.
I'd take a chance here before signing Bradley.

John Northey - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 01:54 PM EST (#392518) #
Hmm... Nishikawa is interesting. A traditional lead off hitter with speed, solid OBP, solid defense. Entering his age 29 season so more than 3 years is risky as speed tends to go quickly. In the Japanese leagues since he was 19. In the last 5 years his lowest OBP was 378, over 390 all but one of those 5 years. Used to do sac bunts 10-20 times a year but now is under 10 each year. Lifetime has hit into under 30 DP's (5246 PA). Grichuk in 2019 hit into 20 DP's for comparison. Rickey Henderson, the best leadoff hitter ever, hit into 10+ 6 times. Most of what I'm finding suggests 4th OF, but if the Jays can't land Springer then he would be a decent option for CF - would have to skyrocket the defense and speed would be nice with good bunting ability.
scottt - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 04:46 PM EST (#392519) #
Rumor that LeMahieu is asking for 5/100M for his age 32-36 years.
MTR has him going for 4/68M.
Might explain the Sean Segura rumors.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, December 04 2020 @ 09:25 PM EST (#392520) #
I donít think I would be upset with a Russel Martin contract for DJ Lemahieu
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 12:08 AM EST (#392521) #
Well, LeMahieu can ask for that. I could ask for 5/$100 mil too. Neither of us are getting it. Guess you can't blame a guy for reaching for the stars but realistically 4/$70 mil is far more likely to happen. 3/$55 might happen, but a $20 mil per year deal? Not likely right now, especially given his OPS+ pre NYY was 92, with Yankees 145. Only a fool would base their judgement on that 145 alone and that is the only way you'd pay $20+ mil a year for his decline years. Remember 2B tend to fall off a cliff quickly. I would have trouble going over 3 years for him, and if I did I'd be factoring in money for years 4 and 5 into the first 3 (ie: $100 mil for 5 I'd see as $100 for 3 so if you think he could provide that much value in 3 years go for it, but otherwise don't).
ayjackson - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 08:48 AM EST (#392522) #
John, I think you're easily worth 3 / $55, but I don't control the coffers around here.

Thinking of starting a website called ...good idea?
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 08:49 AM EST (#392523) #
38 spots on the 40 are filled. 21 pitchers. Tice has no ML time and Y Diaz and H Perez have 1 appearance (2 options already burned) with V bad results. No established closer.

bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 09:14 AM EST (#392524) #
TB started 2020 with N Anderson as their #1 closer. When he had trouble in the playoffs, Cash switched to D Castillo. Neither were proven closers but both showed potential before 2020 and it worked out well.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 11:06 AM EST (#392525) #
So what is causing the current inaction on the free agent market ? Is everybody waiting for someone else to make the first move on the big name (For this year) free agents, thus setting the market and triggering a domino effect? Or is just that there are fewer teams with the financial clout to sign free agents, thus making it a buyers market?

Or are team managements and players/agents waiting to get a clearer picture of what the 2021 season will look like, ie: will the season start on time, will it be a full 162 game schedule, will fans be eventually allowed to attend depending on distribution of the vaccine, etc.? It will be interesting to see which of the higher-ranked free agents signs first and for how much. I'm on the George Springer bandwagon for the Jays myself.
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 11:37 AM EST (#392526) #
Atkins said that movement can happen any time within 2 weeks. Says he is ready.
bpoz - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 12:59 PM EST (#392527) #
Maybe announcements are being delayed until the meetings next week so that there is some excitement.

Just read on Futures BlueJays that Vlad, O Lopez, Y Diaz, H perez and D Jimenez are playing winter ball in the DR. G Moneno and M Castillo in Venezuela. C Young and S Taylor in Australia.

Vancouver is still in play as a Jays affiliate A+. Rogers feels it makes business sense for them to keep it. Dunedin becomes A- with no GCL there should be a lot of V young players working out in Dunedin. Extended ST and Instructs. They can easily move up and down to the A- team.
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 01:58 PM EST (#392528) #
Glad to hear Rogers wants to keep Vancouver. I like Canadian cities being affiliated with the Jays. I read Dunedin will become low A which means Vancouver would be A+. Guess teams will make the spring complexes for the youngest kids then - have one team and all the kids who aren't ready for full season sharing the facilities. As kids are ready to compete in games you bring them in. As they get better they move to Vancouver, New Hampshire, Buffalo. Wonder if the Jays would consider moving their AA team from New Hampshire (Manchester is just over 100k) to a Canadian location? Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec City, Halifax, and London are all in range for that league and would help the Jays with their all-Canada goal for promotion. Montreal probably isn't ideal right now as it might get a ML team, Quebec City or Halifax would be nice for promotion purposes, London as I live here and it used to have a Detroit Tigers AA team and that park is still here (needs updates). Also London would make it really easy for promotions/demotions with Buffalo and Toronto 2 hours away by car.

Of course, NH gets 4400 per game (2019) vs London's 103k for the season in 1993 (peak of 167,679 in 1989). Roughly 70 games a year at home so 2395 to 1471 range over those years or half of Manchester. So the question becomes is it worth the extra cost for the convenience factor? Doubtful. I expect them to stay in Manchester due to fan support, and being well run from what I've read. If Montreal gets a ML team again then an A or AA team could go to Quebec City. London had 1,221 per game for their last pro team in the Frontier League in 2012 (played tons on the road instead of home due to poor attendance).
scottt - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 04:19 PM EST (#392529) #
I think offensive players with defensive liabilities are becoming less valuable because we're returning to not having a DH in the NL.
John Northey - Saturday, December 05 2020 @ 10:05 PM EST (#392530) #
Which is funny given both players and owners want to have a DH in the NL but both want a concession from the other to do it. Typical MLB negotiations, both sides know what is needed but both fighting anyways.
scottt - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 09:58 AM EST (#392531) #
Not having the DH is probably  cheaper.

MLB and all 30 teams are suing AIG, Factory Mutual and Interstate Fire and Casualty Company for the billions lost due to Covid-19. The teams paid premium for "all-risk" policies.

I can't imagine them winning. All 200 minor league teams are insured too.

bpoz - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 10:08 AM EST (#392532) #
Winter meetings start tomorrow.
scottt - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 11:07 AM EST (#392533) #
Like always, the Jays will have to overpay to get an impact player in Toronto.
However, most teams have a limited budget this year.
The big exception is the Mets. If they decide to spend on McCann/Springer, that would leave Realmuto with no obvious taker.
While the Jays have 5 catchers on the 40 rosters, some teams have none.
If they do get Springer, moving Grichuk would pay for some of Springer's salary, even if the Jays eat some of Grichuk's and get nothing in return.
So at this point, I'm guessing the Jays are figuring out interests on guys that could be moved while other teams will mostly want to talk about the top prospects and cheap valuable players like Gurriel.

scottt - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 01:22 PM EST (#392534) #
Phillies trying to trade Wheeler?
Really shows where the market is headed.

John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 01:47 PM EST (#392535) #
Logically MLB teams should win that battle over insurance if it was indeed 'all-risk' including acts of God (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, you name it) unless pandemics were specifically excluded. That is the point of insurance - to cover against the unexpected and this was very unexpected. I expect a lot of insurance companies after this got going added in a line about 'not covered in event of a pandemic' but I suspect few did before this (foolish on their parts given H1N1 and a few other scares we've had over the past 20 years). To be honest, I can't see the insurance companies winning unless they had that pandemic wording in there. Should be interesting to watch from afar. I expect a LOT of small business owners are watching closely too as if MLB wins they all have a case to use in court.
John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 01:55 PM EST (#392536) #
If Wheeler is on the block the Jays should be calling the Phillies to at least kick the tires. Jean Segura a solid SS on both defense and offense (positive scores in both on WAR every season of his career) who is entering his age 31 season (98 OPS+ lifetime) who was moved to 2B last year (and some 3B) He is owed just shy of $30 mil over the next 2 years plus a $17 mil 3rd year (or $1 mil buyout). I could see a deal for both to settle the rotation and infield situations. His most similar at ages 27/28/29 was Craig Biggio (father of Cavin), age 30 was Julio Franco, age 26 Barry Larkin. Nice guys to be most similar to.

An interesting time... teams with cash are drooling over the teams without. Even Bryce Harper is probably available but that would be an impossible deal to make (owed $274 million over 11 years).
scottt - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 03:22 PM EST (#392537) #
Ryu is down to 3/60M. Wheeler still has 4/96M left and I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade asset to acquire him.
Phillies ownership is denying that they intend to trade him.

John Northey - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 03:35 PM EST (#392538) #
I'm thinking if the Phillies are desperate to cut their losses right now then asking them to, say, toss in a decent prospect and the Jays will eat the salary isn't a bad idea. Worked beautifully with Francisco Liriano a few years ago (both coming and going - Reese McGuire on the way in, Teoscar Hernandez on the way out - I miss the old 'ninja' trades).

Now, the Phillies shouldn't be that tight on cash that they need to pay people to take contracts. But the Jays would be foolish not to check in.
scottt - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 03:35 PM EST (#392539) #
I don't know. It's pretty subjective. Some companies are doing great during the pandemic.
The result of acts of God is that a stadium is unusable, maybe destroyed.
The loss of revenues here stems from the teams scheduling a smaller number of games without fans.
They're not insured against sales going down during a recession.
They're probably not insured against a player strike either.
It's like a "life warranty". 

pooks137 - Sunday, December 06 2020 @ 09:15 PM EST (#392540) #
Worked beautifully with Francisco Liriano a few years ago (both coming and going - Reese McGuire on the way in, Teoscar Hernandez on the way out - I miss the old 'ninja' trades).

"Ninja" trades are usually attributed to AA's tenure as GM, which ended after the 2015 season. The Liriano/McGuire trade (2016 trade deadline) and the Liriano/Teoscar trade (2017 trade deadline), were both Ross Atkins trades, who no one ever accused of being "a ninja"

John Northey - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 07:45 AM EST (#392541) #
Good point pooks - for some reason I remembered them wrong as they did seem to come out of nowhere and were perfect deals in the long run. Didn't lose anyone of value, got a rental when most needed, got 2 long term pieces (even if McGuire wasn't much help this year to put it mildly).
bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:06 AM EST (#392542) #
Trades like F Liriano in theory are generally sort of safe. Pittsburgh wanted to dump salary (rest of 2016 and all of 2017). A veteran LHP can have value. He was good for the Jays in 2016 and good for Houston as a reliever in 2017. The Jays risked some decent cash with Liriano. The prospects received were V good in McGuire and a surplus piece for a contending team in Teoscar. Our financial risk with Pittsburgh got us a good piece (what # prospect?). Houston and the Jays both traded contracts (Liriano/Akoi).

Hatch and Waguespack were typical returns fm a contender seeking rental relievers.

scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:26 AM EST (#392543) #
The MPBPA has just now selected its 8 member executive subcommittee who will be negotiating under what rules the 2021 season will be played under.

Interesting bunch, Zack Britton, Jason Castro, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor, Andrew Miller, James Paxton, Max Scherzer and Marcus Semien. Right away I can tell that the highest paid players will not be taking a higher % cut if the schedule is reduced. Given the state of the pandemic, maybe they'll try to delay the start of the season rather than reduce the number of games played?

Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:33 AM EST (#392544) #
From a labour perspective, it would be better if they had a couple of younger players on the committee.  It would help with talent development and also to recognize the different interests that apply to players at different stages of their careers.
John Northey - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:36 AM EST (#392545) #
I could easily see them pushing for a full season and having double headers (7 innings) on Sundays or something. Owners will say 'screw you' to that option. I'm certain the owners will push for a May or June start and reduced schedule of 100-150 games (and reduced pay of course). In the end I expect expanded playoffs, a little shorter season (maybe 154 games or 140), permanent DH in both leagues, 7 innings for double headers, man on 2nd for 11th and later innings. Something along those lines.
bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:50 AM EST (#392546) #
1 year left for Yamaguchi and Dolis contracts. 1 option left for Y Diaz, H Perez, Borucki, Murphy and SRF. Those are just pitchers. 7 pitchers have to solidify a role on the staff in 2021.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:56 AM EST (#392547) #
7 Americans and 1 Canadian. 5 pitchers and 3 position players.
27,30, 30, 32, 32, 33, 35 and 36 years old.
I think Cole is interesting because he's signed until the end of his career.
The young guy is Lindor who will hit the market next year looking for a monster contract.
There's basically no representation for the guys who are arbitration eligible, let alone the others. 

scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 09:58 AM EST (#392548) #
Those 7 innings double headers mean the players are paid for 18 innings and the owners see the gate revenues for 9.
Petey Baseball - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:00 AM EST (#392549) #
I expect we'll know by the end of the week whether the Lindor to Toronto move is happening. The latest rumor has Gurriel as the main piece going the other way, with the Jays not wanting to seriously engage unless an extension window is granted.

I'd have to think that the Jays would see their chances of landing Springer, Realmuto or another one of the top free agents increase if they were to add Lindor. As a poster stated earlier (which has been backed up by Davidi, Rosenthal and others), the Jays put up big money and term for Cole last off-season.

Not getting my Lindor jersey yet, but it just seems like this isn't going away.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:31 AM EST (#392550) #
I don't like the idea of trading a good player in his prime on a good contract (3 years left) for a player with one year left on his contract (although also a good player in his prime). This is not to mention possibly moving Bo Bichette to second thus putting Biggio out of his best position.

Of course, maybe Bichette could play third, but maybe he doesn't want to, and Vlad does want to, but the front office probably isn't keen privately on him playing there. ( Unless he shows up to spring training looking svelte and playing third more like a ballerina and less like a hippopotamus with cement shoes) Aaah, I can't figure this out! Best to wait and criticize the front office for whatever they do.
bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:50 AM EST (#392551) #
NYY always make the playoffs because they can cover up their mistakes with money. They made a V good move by trading Chapman and Miller in 2016.

Maybe they don't make too many mistakes. I can only think of the G Stanton contract as a mistake IMO.

LeMahieuwas a great FA pickup. If he had failed just an affordable $12 mil/yr. Urshela was also great. If he failed it cost nothing. Paxton was injured too much, so not a big success, bad luck and injuries are to be expected. Severino bad luck injuries. Sabathia and Happ did quite well as older but experienced pitchers. Sonny Gray was not much of a success for NYY and the prospects traded to Oakland have not succeeded yet.

The luxury tax may hurt them. And TB seems to also hurt them. I am waiting for the Jays to hurt them.
Glevin - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:58 AM EST (#392552) #
Lindor would be great for Gurriel as main piece as long as they extend him (and can't see them trading for him without doing so). I like Gurriel but he's actually older than Lindor and Lindor is an elite piece, the kind that is hard to get. You can move Bo to 2B and move Biggio around the field in a Tony Phillips-like way (RF, 2B, LF, 1B, DH). My dream in this scenario is the Jays sign Springer pushing Grichuk to a corner, then sign a decent FA starter (there are a number Walker, Paxton, Quintana, Archer, Odirizzi), sign Justin Turner to a 1 year deal while the Jays wait for one of their youngsters to develop, and sign a veteran reliever or two (there are plenty out there).
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:11 AM EST (#392553) #
I don't like the idea of splitting Gurriel, Guerrero and Hernandez who don't seem to hang around anybody else.
Lindor for Gurriel does not really make the team better. Nevermind that's just 1 expensive year of Lindor for 3 cheap years of Gurriel and that Cleveland would want some top prospects to boot.

Now, if they want Grichuk, that's a different story. Just pay the difference in salaries.
It's not like they want Gurriel at short or centerfield.

85bluejay - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:15 AM EST (#392554) #
Gurriel is what Cleveland wants - sorry, I'm not exchanging 1 year of Lindor for 4 years of Gurriel - also the Jays system is not talented enough to do a Dodger type deal - If the Indians want Gurriel , then the Jays should be asking about pitching - Carrasco, Pleasc, McKenzie etc. - Regarding SS, I'm willing to let Bo have this year to prove his defensive chops and then if necessary take my chances with signing one of the talented SS expected to be on the market next year (might even be Lindor)
ramone - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:19 AM EST (#392555) #
Shi's latest indicates getting Lindor to agree to an extension will be difficult as he's been added as an MLBPA union executive this year. The union will want him to get to free agency to get the biggest possible contract available. It's hard to see the Jays trading for him if he's determined to make it to free agency.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:21 AM EST (#392556) #
Lindor would be great if he could play center field. Right now he plugs a hole that doesn't exist by displacing a cheaper player. If you want to burn money, just get Realmuto. Realmuto over Jansen is a huge improvement. Lindor over Bichette is not. Realmuto would cost less over 5+ years than Lindor. Lindor would just force the team to realize that Biggio is not a great defender. Grichuk is the one that needs to go, eat salary or package him with a prospect.

SK in NJ - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:26 AM EST (#392557) #
It really depends on what an extension for Lindor would look like. If it's closer to Nolan Arenado's (8/260), then you can live with that given his age. An 8 year deal, including 2021, would cover his age 27-34 seasons, which would still likely have some bad money in the end, but enough potentially great money in the beginning to offset it. However, if he's looking for an extension that is 10 years or longer, then I'd pass. Considering Lindor's greatest asset is his defense, it's a risk the longer the contract goes. As great of a player as he is, his bat for his career has not been elite (just very good), so he loses a lot of value the moment his defense dips. Still, a projected 5-6 WAR player in his prime doesn't grow on trees. This might be the only way the Jays can acquire someone like this.

There's a lot of smoke with Lindor, so I'm guessing there's some legitimacy to all of this. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen.
Glevin - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 11:28 AM EST (#392558) #
"Lindor would be great if he could play center field. Right now he plugs a hole that doesn't exist by displacing a cheaper player."

Come on. Lindor is literally the #3 player in baseball over the past 5 years. If you can get a player like that at a reasonable price, you do it and figure the rest out later.
Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 12:13 PM EST (#392559) #
I like Lindor very much, but over the last 5 years, he's in a knot of players behind Trout and Betts.  Fangraphs has him as #6 by fWAR and that doesn't take into account the advantage of playing in the weakest division in baseball.  I was surprised to see him as only an average baserunner and way behind Yelich and Ramirez.  If you take into account the strength of competition, he might be behind players like Arenado, Freeman and Altuve. 

Still he's pretty clearly been one of the top 10 players in baseball over that span and he's only 26.  There's no reason that he wouldn't have a career as good as Trammell's or better.  And the fact that he's a switch-hitter is a plus. 

scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 12:26 PM EST (#392560) #
Cleveland has not been a great team lately despite having elite pitching.
He was worth only 0.8 bWAR this year. Finished 15th in MVP voting last year.
Even if he's worth 5 WAR at short next year, that's at the cost of losing Gurriel who was worth about 2.7WAR over 162 games and shaving another 2 WAR from Biggio by moving him off second. Then who knows what you get from Bichette?
No short term gain, massive future losses.
Now, if you could get a real #3 player who is pre-arb with 5 years of control, that would be different.
Lindor will make over 20M this year and is looking for over 300 more over the next 10.

bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 12:40 PM EST (#392561) #
I am hoping the Jays build into a 95 win team by 2023 and stay at that top level for about 4 more years.

How?? A Martin, Groshans etc... Maybe Pearson, Manoah, SWR, Kloff etc.. manage to develop into #1s or so. Just a few not all. All would be heaven.

At that time a massive contract would/may transform the team into 100 wins. Of course players like Bo and Pearson would be V expensive if they achieved elitedom. The budget, luxury tax and massive revenues would be in play then.
bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 01:09 PM EST (#392562) #
A city like NY is also a good place to make big advertising $. Gary Carter from Expos did well. So Bauer to a NY team is good.
Glevin - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 01:12 PM EST (#392563) #
"I like Lindor very much, but over the last 5 years, he's in a knot of players behind Trout and Betts. "

Sorry, was looking at last 6 years where he's #3. I agree he likely isn't the #3 player in baseball right now but he is a top-10/15 player and young enough where I wouldn't worry about a 5 or 6 year deal.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 01:28 PM EST (#392564) #
"I like Gurriel but he's actually older than Lindor".

" he's (Lindor) only 26".

Lindor was 27 on November 14. Gurriel's birthday is October 10 of the same year as Lindor so he's just over a month older.

I know under AA there was strict secrecy about trades, signings, etc. I don't know about Atkins but the signing of Ryu seemed to come out of nowhere last year. I just wonder if this talk about Lindor is more media related than anything.

pooks137 - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 01:38 PM EST (#392565) #
Good point pooks - for some reason I remembered them wrong as they did seem to come out of nowhere and were perfect deals in the long run. Didn't lose anyone of value, got a rental when most needed, got 2 long term pieces (even if McGuire wasn't much help this year to put it mildly).

The way I usually remember the difference is that it was AA leading the 2015 playoff team and Shapiro/Atkins running the ship for the 2016 run.

Another amazing factoid is that the 3/36 million contract that the Jays absorbed in the Liriano deal from the Pirates was the largest FA contract Pittsburgh ever gave out.

And of course, Pittsburgh actually only ended up paying half of the 36 mil since they gave the Jays Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez so they would cover the other half.

bpoz - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 02:34 PM EST (#392566) #
LAA just made a trade. Got closer Raisel Iglesias from Cincy. LAA also received cash to help with the $9.125 mil owed Iglesias.
Thomas - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 02:43 PM EST (#392567) #
I've never been optimistic about the ability to sign Lindor to an extension prior to free agency to begin with and the MLBPA committee news decreases that likelihood further.

My interest in a Lindor trade goes down significantly if the Jays only hope for signing him to an extension is to overpay him. Otherwise, I'd rather take the chances of getting him in free agency (which are low, but I don't think they go up too much if the Jays have him for 2021).
85bluejay - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 03:24 PM EST (#392568) #
Philadelphia and Cincinnati are 2 teams that seemed to jump the gun in terms of their contention window - spent a lot of money before team actually showed it was ready to contend and now both teams seem to be having budget problems - this is what I don't want to happen to the Jays - I'd hate for them to spend a lot of talent capital and contract obligations on a guy like Lindor and then have budget problems in a couple of years if they don't contend - the Jays rotation is very weak behind Ryu and that's where I'd like the team to focus on and Cleveland has a wealth of quality starting pitchers.
85bluejay - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 03:29 PM EST (#392569) #
I hope the Jays are inquiring on if the Reds intend to move Sonny Gray.
Cracka - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 03:37 PM EST (#392570) #
Anthony Castro (RHP) acquired on waivers from the Tigers. 25 y/o, made MLB debut last season, has 2 options remaining. Low 90s with lots of movement, but also control issues. I'm guessing he has a great spin rate.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 03:41 PM EST (#392571) #
The Jays have claimed Anthony Castro off waivers from Detroit.
He's got 2 options left.

SK in NJ - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 03:45 PM EST (#392572) #
Agreed about going after Sonny Gray. There is talk of him being available for some reason. He seems like a much more logical trade target for the Jays than Lindor. Although given how friendly his contract is (2/20 guaranteed + a $1M assignment bonus + a $12M team option for 2023), it won't be cheap.

With Lindor being in the MLBPA executive subcommittee, the chances of him signing an extension that isn't $300M or more seems very unlikely. I don't think it's worthwhile for the Jays to trade for him at this point. If they really want him, or really want a SS in general, then waiting for next year's free agent market would be the better alternative.
Cracka - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:04 PM EST (#392573) #
Walker Lockett (RHP) also claimed on waivers (via Mariners), likely as a potential depth starter. 27 y/o, 8 career MLB starts. Hard to see him lasting the entire off-season on the 40-man roster.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:09 PM EST (#392574) #
Low 90s but topping at 97mph with movement.
Apparently he's struggling as a reliever.

Mike Green - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:11 PM EST (#392575) #
Sonny Gray would be all right, but again as long as you take the Central discount on his expectations.  I doubt that he's better than he was in 2015-18.  He was a useful pitcher during that time frame, but not the 4-5 WAR pitcher that his last 2 years with the Reds might suggest. 
Glevin - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:30 PM EST (#392576) #
"Sonny Gray would be all right, but again as long as you take the Central discount on his expectations."

Last year's central numbers were especially absurd as they didn't play other divisions. He's been a 2.5-4.4 WAR pitcher in 4/6 of his seasons (and would have been in that range last year as well with a full season). Unlike Lindor, Gray isn't a special talent. Is Gray really much better than say Quintana? I'd be happy to get Gray but also be fine with any of the bunch of starters who are free agents and similar. I actually think free agency cost will be significantly lower than trade costs in most cases this year. Would I want to give up a prospect to get Gray when I can get Archer or Quintana or Tanaka or Odorizzi on like a 2/$20 contract?
rpriske - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:37 PM EST (#392577) #
I used to like Lockett as someone with potential, but he hasn't shown any of that promise. I can't picture him making an impact at this point.
SK in NJ - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 04:41 PM EST (#392578) #
Good point about the 2020 Central. I keep forgetting about the regional schedule from this past season. With that said, Gray was really good in 2019 as well, and basically any time he wasn't a Yankee. I could see him being a ~3 WAR type of SP for the next few years, and he has consistently great spin rate which this FO seems to love. Still think he'd be a good target if the price is reasonable.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 05:01 PM EST (#392579) #
MLB had Castro as the 17th Tigers prospect.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 05:03 PM EST (#392580) #
Lockett doesn't have any options left.
I don't think Sonny Gray is eager to return to the AL East
hypobole - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 07:43 PM EST (#392581) #
Pretty sure Castro can be outrighted if the Jays can pass him through waivers, Lockett may choose free agency, or may not.
Rule 5 draft is Thursday. Teams that make picks will have to use 40 man spots. Plus any major league signings will also use spots. Jays can hold on to the 2 claims until they sign someone or a better claim comes along. But definitely after Thursday, the Jays odds of passing these 2 through waivers will improve.
Magpie - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 07:45 PM EST (#392582) #
Dick Allen isn't in the Hall of Fame yet, and it's now too late for him to enjoy it when it happens. It surely should. His career was full of controversy, he wasn't much of a defender, he got injured regularly, and he was prone to showing up late at the ball park. Or not showing up at all. But as a hitter - he was basically the Miguel Cabrera of the 1960s, a mighty offensive force for more than a decade, generally the best hitter in the game.
scottt - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 07:46 PM EST (#392583) #
MLB puts Castro at 19th in the Jays system.

19. Anthony Castro
20. Kevin Smith
21. Julian Merryweather
22. Will Robertson
23. Riley Adams
24. Sem Robberse
25. Nick Frasso
26. Yennsy Diaz
27. Josh Winckoski
28. Trent Palmer
29. T.J. Zeuch
30. Joey Murray

Chuck - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:25 PM EST (#392584) #
Dick Allen isn't in the Hall of Fame yet

What I love about his rookie season is that he lead the league in triples but was 3-of-7 stealing bases. That feels incongruous.

More things from his past (thank you BBRef) that contradict my recollection of him.

  • He did not miss a game in his first two seasons.
  • He had 27 triples in his first two seasons.
  • He recorded 200 hits in his rookie season.
  • He was a Dodger for a season.
John Northey - Monday, December 07 2020 @ 10:51 PM EST (#392585) #
Other oddities about Allen...
  • Never was primarily a DH, in fact only played as a DH 3 times in his career, same number of games he had at SS, 4 times at 2B.
  • His highest bWAR was 8.8 his rookie season (won ROY but 7th in MVP voting, just behind an 11 WAR season for Willie Mays, while Joe Torre with 5.5 WAR finished ahead of both of them, and Ken Boyer won with 6.1 WAR (854 OPS at 3B, Mays was 990 in CF but St Louis won so Boyer got it)
  • The year he won an MVP, Sparky Lyle got a 1st place vote for 35 saves 1.92 ERA in 107 IP. Joe Rudi, a LF, got a 1st place vote as well with a 830 OPS. Ugh did voters suck back then.
  • Seems weird how fast his career ended - 1977 was his final year with just 54 games played (89 OPS+) after a season where he hit 268/346/480 131 OPS+ in 85 games. 1977 as everyone here knows was an expansion year, you'd think the Jays or Mariners could've used a veteran 1B who pounded the ball the year before.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 01:37 AM EST (#392586) #
Allen and Cabrera both started out in the minor leagues playing shortstop, which is weird to even think about. Allen at least was built something like an infielder, but Cabrera was, and remains, a tank. Both had been moved off the position well before they got to The Show, Cabrera to third base and Allen first to second base and then to third. Allen seems to have had decent enough range there as a rookie, but he made an ungodly number of errors (41 of them!) and all but 3 of them were fielding errors. Hard to see what Gene Mauch liked about his hands.

Allen's peak covers his first 11 seasons (1965-74) from ages 22 to 32. He hit .299/.386/.554 for an OPS+ of 165, with 319 HRs. In his first 11 full seasons, aged 21 to 31, Cabrera hit .323/.400/.568 with 378 HRs. Despite the better numbers. Cabrera's OPS+ (156) wasn't quite as awesome, and for good reason. Allen was doing all this damage during the second Dead Ball Era.

The biggest difference between them is that Cabrera played 1,732 games in those seasons. Allen played just 1,481. And Cabrera had two more great seasons in him at the same high level before devolving into the very expensive league average hitter he's been for the last four years. Allen put in three partial seasons as a league average guy and called it quits.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 01:51 AM EST (#392587) #
1977 as everyone here knows was an expansion year, you'd think the Jays or Mariners could've used a veteran 1B who pounded the ball the year before.

Ron Fairly and Doug Rader were the Jays most common DHs in 1977, and as it turned out they both hit better than Allen that year. Fairly was quite a bit better. And of course, Otto the Swatto Velez was there, easily the best hitter on the team, somehow unable to crack that mighty lineup. But the Mariners - their main DHs were Juan Bernhardt, who was utterly awful (.243/.259/.354) and Steve Braun who'd been pretty good for the Twins but was pretty bad in Seattle.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 01:55 AM EST (#392588) #
I do get the impression that Allen liked the DH about as much as he liked artificial turf ("if a horse can't eat it, I don't want to play on it"), which may be one of the reasons he walked away.

He did like the horses. He is the last player I know of to have actually missed a game because he was down at the racetrack.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 06:14 AM EST (#392589) #
Anthony Castro is an older Hector Perez, and I don't think he is a better prospect than Julian Merryweather.
scottt - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 07:58 AM EST (#392590) #
Merryweather is 29 and out of options.
Castro is 25 and still has 2 options left.
I think it puts pressures on other guys like Sean Reid-Foley, 

At this point, these guys figure to be  used in the pen.
Castro's fastball is actually a cutter.
At any rate, this is better than a rule 5 pick.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 09:04 AM EST (#392591) #
I do not have the remotest idea about Anthony Castro.  Here's what we do know (more or less) for sure.  He will turn 26 in April.  He pitched 1 inning last year for the Tigers and gave up a walk and a homer.  In 2019, in the Eastern League, he pitched to a 4.47 ERA with 65 walks in 102 innings; he was actually better as a starter than as a reliever.  In relief, he had 18 walks and 18 strikeouts in 18 innings which is kinda cool if not impressive from a performance perspective.  In 2017 and 2018, he was effective but not great in the Midwest League and the Florida State League with walk rates not too far from 3 per 9IP.  Basically, he's an older prospect who really hasn't cleared the double A hurdle and we have nothing to go on for over a year due to the virus.  Prospecting pitchers is tough at the best of times, and this is not the best of times.
Glevin - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 09:43 AM EST (#392592) #
Buster Olney is very sure the Mets are going to end up with Springer. If that's the case, Mets would have extra OF and I'd have a lot of interest in in Nimmo who gets on base at a fantastic clip (career .390 OBP, 5th in baseball in OBP over last 5 years) and is an excellent fielder as a corner OFer. Mets have no catchers so a trade might make sense here. Nimmo for Jansen seems like a good trade (trade simulator has them at exactly same value) for both sides. Jays then sign Realmuto with Kirk as backup. Jays would have to live with below average defense in CF and a crowded OF but I can see a trade of Teoscar/Gurriel as a piece for a starter or even Lindor to open up the logjam. (Let's say for the sake of it, Gurriel for Bryant and Darvish which is roughly fair and helps the Cubs shed salary and seems perfect for the Jays).
PeterG - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 09:43 AM EST (#392593) #
Shi Davidi reports that Hyun-Jin Ryu recently had dinner with Daniel Kim, saying he would be pleased to play on the same team as Kim.
mathesond - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:26 AM EST (#392594) #
"In relief, he had 18 walks and 18 strikeouts in 18 innings which is kinda cool if not impressive from a performance perspective."

If only Tim Robbins could play him in the movie
John Northey - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:27 AM EST (#392595) #
Good sign there. Getting a 25 year old who is strong on defense and has solid offensive potential would be sweet.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:28 AM EST (#392596) #
Here is the Tweet that PeterG alluded to regarding Ryu and Kim:

"Daniel Kim @DanielKimW
Hyun-jin Ryu recently met and had dinner w/ Ha-seong Kim who is being posted at this time. In an interview w/ KBS, Ryu said it he would be ďhappy to play on a same team w/ Kim.Ē Kimís posting is scheduled to last until Jan 1. #BlueJays #MLB #KBO"
bpoz - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:30 AM EST (#392597) #
I am curious about Y Molina. Old but still good.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:37 AM EST (#392598) #
If only Tim Robbins could play him in the movie

The other Castro (who threw left and probably had good control) is out. Anthony would have to do for the sequel to Bull Durham, and the inevitable question would follow "Salvaje Castro" or "Loco Castro"?
John Northey - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 10:42 AM EST (#392599) #
There are so many potentially moving parts right now it is insane. Jays have a potential opening at 3B (unless Vlad by some miracle has figured out how to play it at a ML average level), and CF (none of the current options are good on defense). Pitching is always a mess. We have a SS willing to move if a star is brought in (Bo), we have a 2B who has shown he can play pretty much anywhere needed without complaint (Biggio), we have 2 1B/DH types (Vlad & Tellez) which limits everything. Kim is a very interesting potential piece, Lindor is an expensive one but damn good one, there is a Japanese pitcher who is extremely good who is out there too. Tomoyuki Sugano is that pitcher - 2.34 career ERA in Japan, 1.8 BB/9 vs 8.0 K/9 over 8 seasons - his ERA's look like Koufax in the 60's with the exception of 2019 (3.89). Entering his age 31 season, a 5 year deal isn't unreasonable but for how much is the question. He'd be cheaper than Bauer, but would he cost $100/5? Maybe.
scottt - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 11:14 AM EST (#392600) #
The Mets decided on going after Springer before they were told there is no DH in the NL.
That would leaves them with a lot of corner outfielders.

Nimmo is the guy who can back Springer at CF.
They probably trade Dominic Smith instead.

Can we clear logjams by trading away the average players instead of the good ones?
Darvish is signed for 3 more years.
The White Sox gave away  2 young pitchers for one year of Lance Lynn.

Glevin - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 12:32 PM EST (#392601) #
Wow, Eaton for $7M? That seems insane in this market. He's 32 with 3 straight years of decline offensively and defensively. There are so many 3/4th OFer types many of whom are better, out there that this makes no sense at all.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 12:48 PM EST (#392602) #
I like Castro and his 2 options. Not sure about Lockett. I do believe that there will be a lot of NRIs to ST. They will compete and accordingly be ranked.

Looks like CWS are making moves. I was impressed until I remembered how they have been hustling the Jays. M Sirotka.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 02:39 PM EST (#392603) #
C Santana to KC on a 2 year $17.5 mil deal.
scottt - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 03:06 PM EST (#392604) #
Springer was too expensive to play a corner outfield spot.
The White Sox are making low cost moves.

So basically, it's between Blue Jays and Mets for Springer?

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 05:08 PM EST (#392605) #
Merryweather will likely get a 4th option year with the injuries, as in the case with Dustin McGowan.

I would really like a Kim signing.
scottt - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 06:19 PM EST (#392606) #
Is there a point to a 4th option?
He threw 13 innings this year, 6 last year and none the year before.
Stretch him back into a starter and hope his body holds together?
Might as well put him in the bullpen and see how he does over a full year.
Maybe have him get 6 outs every other day.

scottt - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 06:36 PM EST (#392607) #
The Royals got a new owner last year and it seems like he's willing to spend on improving the team.
However, I'm not sure Santana, Minor and Michael A. Taylor are the right players to spend money on.

The Padres gave an MLB contract to Brian O'Grady.
They already have Grisham, Pham and Myers as regulars and Greg Allen and Jorge Mateo are both out of options.
O'Grady could play some first base but he hits left just like Hosmer.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 11:17 PM EST (#392608) #
I think Glevin paints a realistic picture while predicting what the front office will do. Darvish is a pipe dream at this point but trading surplus for a hole (C for CF) seems realistic and then pivoting and signing a free agent (like Realmuto) while trading a young, controllable player (like Gurriel Jr as one example) is likely in my opinion. Not the players, but this sequence of moves is what I am expecting from this front office, and if they can add an international signing to boot then it will be one productive off season.

I'm hoping they follow the AA Mantra of going after great players like Tulo, Price, Ryu, Donaldson. Those guys were all beasts and elite before coming to the Jays.

I'm not sold on Springer.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 08 2020 @ 11:19 PM EST (#392609) #
Also, sp is still the biggest hole and I would prioritize that over C or CF. I'll take Jansen, Grichuk and Bauer over Realmuto, Nimmo and random #2 guy any day.
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 04:31 AM EST (#392610) #
Has there been an official word from MLB on rookie eligibility (and thus propsect-or-not status) for 2021? The normal requirements are that a player have not more than 130 AB, 50 IP, 45 days service time pre- Sept 1. If those numbers are pro-rated for the shortened 2020 season they become 50 AB, 19 IP, 17 days service time.

Jonathan Davis and Reese McGuire graduated in 2020 regardless, and Julian Merryweather is still a rookie (and an actual prospect at 29 years old!). But these guys are in a gray area:

Nate Pearson
Anthony Kay
Thomas Hatch
Jordan Romano
Santiago Espinal

On a related note, will there be a Batter's Box top 30 Jays prospects this year?
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 04:55 AM EST (#392612) #
Should have googled before posting. MLB announced on September 27 that they adjusted the eligibility to say that all days accumulated in September 2020 count against rookie eligibility. So that means Kay, Hatch, and Romano are no longer a rookies. And I had forgotten that Espinal got sent to the alternate site in mid-September, so he remains under the 45 days.

That leaves just Nate Pearson as unclear for me. He was over 45 days service time if you include time on the IL, but under 45 if you count just days on the active roster. He's on the top-30 list so I'll take that to mean he's still a rookie for now.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 07:26 AM EST (#392613) #
Thanks Jonny German.

Please clarify rookie vs prospect. Thanks. I will post my top 10 on Thur or Fri. I always love and wait for the list. Pearson can stay as my #1. The other 4 you named I prefer to count as graduated from prospect status.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 07:46 AM EST (#392614) #
There are no plans to produce a top 30 prospects this year. There is too little information to change the position of most players. There would be players graduating and new draftees can be added but there is too little information available on how prospects have fared at the various development camps to update the list.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 07:55 AM EST (#392615) #
Thanks Gerry.
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 08:24 AM EST (#392616) #
Price was a disaster in my book.
Tulo was an improvement for a couple of years and then a huge bullet to drag.
Donaldson was amazing.
Springer would probably fall between Donaldson and Tulo.
Not an MVP, but a solid two-way player.

Gurriel was 3rd in OPS (.882) after Hernandez (.919) and Tellez (.886).
He's 26 and will not get arbitration. He's the most valuable player on the team.

The Jays got 0.9 WAR from Tulo in 2015, then 3.3 and 0.8.
Springer might beat that in 2021 alone.

Grichuk's contract is severely under water.
He's owned 31M for the next 3 years. I don't think he'd be getting more than 1/5M or 2/10M as a free agent.
Given the realities of 2021, I think it's possible to trade him if the Jays pay for all of 2021 and get some other bad contract back, like an overpaid reliever or infielder or package a catcher.

Paul D - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 08:38 AM EST (#392617) #
Wow, it's hard not to want to re-litigate previous decisions.... Generally I agree that going for the stars was a great move, and I'd include Price there. (I can see disagreeing, but disaster?) I'm kind of hoping there's an option to send Roark out for Price now actually.

I don't know how realistic it is, but I'm coming around on the Realmuto idea. Getting the best player at a given position is a good move, and I feel like catching prospects break your heard even more than pitching prospects. So sign Realmuto and hopefully trade some C depth for SP or CF.
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 09:21 AM EST (#392618) #
Bauer will cost over 30M per year and could go on the IL just like anybody else.
The Reds still lost Bauer's wild card start.
Add Bauer to the Jays just before the playoffs and they probably still lose to the Rays.
The Jays were shaky defensively and only scored 3 runs in the 2 games. (2 Jansen HRs).
Panik went 0-6 with -0.14 WPA. The only hitters with positive WPA were Gurriel, Tellez and Shaw.
Ryu was terrible, but Shoemaker and Ray only gave the 1 run and that's because Jansen didn't block a ball.

Mind you, I'd be OK with just Bauer, but it's probably not a winning strategy.
The Yankees have Cole and it wasn't enough. 
At any rate, they'll have to replace Panik and Shaw.

earlweaverfan - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 10:20 AM EST (#392619) #
The complexity you describe is wild, agreed. I think three factors will explain much of what the Jays will have done, when we have the luxury of looking back at their off-season:
1) How much money they are willing to invest at a maximum. If it were me, and I had Rogerís assets, I would try to land all of Kim, Springer, Realmuto, Sugano-San and Hand. Itís just money, after all (no prospects), and you could trade Jansen for another strong reliever or two, or a strong AA prospect SP or twos
2) The confidence they have in their player evaluations in this most challenging year to make such assessments. How will the stats of Sugano and Kim translate to MLB? How quickly will Springer and Realmuto deteriorate?
3) What sequence of moves is available in the market as it unfolds? Ideally, they sign Kim right away, showing how serious they are (Ryu assisting). Next they impress Springer enough to land him. The market for Realmuto will be less than he hopes, so a strong offer to him could get him to jump on the bandwagon. Now we are into January, when a strong push could land Sugano. As there are many alternatives to Hand, such as the Jansen trade, you go after him only if that is your best option

Still, as you suggest, there are a lot of assumptions that may not materialize. Many parts flying in very loose formation.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 11:08 AM EST (#392620) #
A lot of RHHs there, EWF, on top of a lineup that lists right.  Not sure if EW would approve.

Kim is interesting.  He's 56-6 stealing bases the past 2 years, as well as evening out his W/K and adding power at age 23-24.  The ZiPS translations and projections are awfully good but whether he's a third baseman or a shortstop in MLB is an interesting question.  There isn't KBO Statcast or DRS or UZR, so it's a pretty subjective judgment. 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 11:49 AM EST (#392621) #
Good post EWF. Scott, I think you're missing the point of my post. It's about chasing elite players and grading them based on their performance pre-trade. Those are players that produced at an elite level before being acquired. Price, Tulo and Donaldson ... it doesn't get more elite than that when trading for players. Tulo came off a big injury, rebounded and had insane career numbers for a SS both in Coors and away from Denver. I believe he still has the best fielding percentage of any SS in MLB history, maybe because of his sharp decline he is no longer at the top, but he was the best infielder we've had since Rolen (read: nobody after Rolen or before Tulo was as good). Omar doesn't count and Johnny Mac doesn't qualify since he wasn't a regular.

Also...looking at 1 game performances to put a value on a player is ... not conducive to determining the value of a player over a season, full playoffs or career with a team. I don't care if Bauer, Ryu or Cole took a loss in a playoff game this year...Shoemaker pitched great in his game...should we put him at the top of our wish list now?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 11:58 AM EST (#392622) #
Kim might be my first choice on the FA market right now, and that's with the caveat of not knowing what he's going to do at the big league level. There is a heavy risk/reward component here, but he has the right combination of age, position, and offensive profile that is very intriguing. The issue is how to translate KBO numbers to MLB, and whether he will be able to hit MLB velocity. It's still a risk I think the Jays can take without having it impact their present or future if he fails, and he has enough upside to make it a strong surplus value candidate.

There is a lot of traction with Springer and the Mets, and everyone seems to think LeMathieu is going back to the Yankees. There doesn't seem to be a logical spot for Realmuto if the Mets decide to look elsewhere for catching. Not sure if the Jays would overpay for Realmuto given their depth at catcher, but Atkins has talked about going after impact talent regardless of positional fit, so if JT falls on their laps, then they might do it and deal with the roster clutter later. Trading Jansen for a young CF in that scenario would be a solid shuffling of assets.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 12:10 PM EST (#392623) #
The Blue Jays have made their new minor league affiliations official. Buffalo and New Hampshire remain. Vancouver becomes a full season high A team, replacing Dunedin. Dunedin moves down to low A replacing Lansing.

Lansing and Bluefield leave the Jays new slimmed down system.

Having Dunedin at Low A makes some sense as it keeps the youngest players closest to the better facilities and the warmer weather.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 12:24 PM EST (#392624) #
There will definitely be less opportunity for the Pillars and Orlando Hudsons of the system, and it's a shame for Lansing and Bluefield. 
bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 12:44 PM EST (#392625) #
I believe in a winning strategy. Everyone can have a different idea about what a winning strategy is.

Washington won a WS in 2019. Everything broke right for them. They came on V strong when it looked like they may not even make the playoffs. They did have a great roster that looked like it would fail. Soto was probably expected to be good. But superstar?? D Hudson got hot at the right time. A Chapman (NYY) was not hot.

I think the Jays will spend cautiously so that they have money for future acquisitions. 4 years for Ryu is not cautious. 5 years for Grichuk is also not cautious. But not extravagant either. They wanted to probably simply show progress from 2019. 2019 was not cheap but that was not Shapiro's fault. 2020 spending and onward is Shapiro's responsibility. They got lucky with extra playoff spots for 2020. A 24-36 record for Boston in 2021 is unlikely IMO. The Jays would want to compete for years now that we tasted playoffs in 2020 with a new and exciting core.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 12:48 PM EST (#392626) #
C's Plus baseball is back to following the Jays. Fantastic!!
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 01:16 PM EST (#392627) #
It all seems good.

All the prospects will start in Dunedin with the improved facility.
Most of the prospects will go through Vancouver and being on the West Coast is not going to matter at that level.
Vancouver has the weather to accommodate a full season. Maybe we get more Cs games on TV.
No change for New Hampshire and Buffalo where they just improved the lights.

scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 02:02 PM EST (#392628) #
Now is the time to spend because it's like everything is on sale.
Next year, there will be increased competition for the top guys and many owners ready to overpay.
Which is what happened in 15,16 and 17.
With Bauer, they're will be no discount.
Springer is not likely to go above value, but new owners often overpay.
Like giving McCann 4 years.
Realmuto could become a late discount, kinda like EE.
The reality is that when you trade for someone looking to extent him that extension is not going to come cheap.
With Grichuk, they thought they were getting a solid right fielder with upside and a good clubhouse guy.
The clubhouse part is probably true. Grichuk works hard and doesn't complain.
However, the guys they tried in center had the tools but couldn't put it together and Grichuk's defense in center has not been good. The hitting has disappointed. Grichuk hits the ball hard but he is not a great contact guy. He still struggles with the high fastballs and chases too many balls.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 02:09 PM EST (#392629) #
Bauer to Boston (if he is willing) makes a lot of sense.
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 02:58 PM EST (#392630) #
Maybe winning the offseason is about getting the biggest has-beens.
Winning is all about getting performance post trade and this isn't fantasy baseball, plugging a weakness beats creating logjams.
The biggest names are all that matters to those who don't follow the prospects.
Price got a monster contract in Boston.
If the Jays had given him that contract, they'd be looking like Baltimore right now and would have had nothing to show for it. The Dodgers took Price to get Betts (now Betts is a real elite player unlike Price and Tulo).
How does Bauer compares to Cole?
They were both at the U of C. Cole was drafted 1st and Bauer went 3rd.
(The Mariner gave 6M to Danny Hultzen for the second pick).
Lindor was drafted 8th out of high school, Springer went 11th.
Bauer got the Cy Young this year and was real good in 2018.
Has not been amazing the other 9 years and will be 30. Noticeably struggled last year.
Cole took much longer to reach the show, but has been consistently good over the last 3 years and is signed for another 8 years.
That's a lot of money riding on one arm. The Yankees can afford to take that gamble.
Bauer is a huge risk. It all depends on his market.
It could be that the Mets are after both Springer and Bauer.
In a world where most baseball players are right wing nuts, Bauer is a libertarian.
Can be fun to watch. Dependable? He says so.
Could be a guy who values AAV over years, but only to a point.

scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 05:42 PM EST (#392636) #
Boston are supposedly after Kluber and Shoemaker.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 05:43 PM EST (#392637) #
Reports are the Yankees are not interested in bringing back Tanaka apparently because the money they have to spend will likely go to LeMahieu - I'm suspicious - The Yankees know Tanaka's medicals best and if they are staying away, then the Jays should also.
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 08:34 PM EST (#392640) #
Yankees are trying to trade for a starter instead.
The cost of Paxton was Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson and Tompson-Williams. Basically, nothing.
They're eager to move Estevan Florial who hasn't hit above A ball but was highly hyped in previous years.
I doubt they move Frazier. Torres is really a second baseman playing short.
Tauchman? Andujar?
They have a few interesting  prospects not going anywhere: Dominguez, Schmidt, Garcia.
Peraza? Gil?

bpoz - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 08:56 PM EST (#392641) #
Very slow meetings it seems.
scottt - Wednesday, December 09 2020 @ 10:02 PM EST (#392642) #
It's expected.
We don't know when the season will start, the size of the roster, if the Jays will play in Canada, etc.
Money is tight and most GMs are not meeting players' asking prices.
On to the Rule 5 draft where the Jays don't really have much to lose.

At this point, it looks like the Yankees want to keep LeMahieu but might not want to spent much to find the 2 or 3 starters they need. The Mets seems to be overpaying McCann which leaves Realmuto available.
McCann is worth around 10M/year and Realmuto around 23M.
Bauer is looking for at least 30M and Springer around 25M.

The Jays likely want a top reliever, a center fielder and a guy who can play 3rd well.
The Angels need a lot of pitching, but have been very quiet.
The Rays need about 3 catchers.

bpoz - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 08:37 AM EST (#392648) #
The Rule 5 draft should be completed by 1pm. The # of players on teams rosters are incorrectly being reported. I counted (testing purposes) the Jays and SF both have 2 more players than reported. Jays 40 and SF 37 so room to pick.

I would not be shocked if the Jays DFA'd or traded a couple of players to make room. The Jays may value McGuire and D Fisher a bit more than I do. Both have ML experience and may crack the lineup and break out.

A rule 5 pick today would need a spot as well as a FA signing which would risk losing a player if he is claimed.

scottt - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 08:57 AM EST (#392652) #
McGuire would get picked up in a hurry.
They should be able to get something for him.
I think Fisher would clear outright waivers.
I wouldn't be too upset if he doesn't--let's bring up Palacios if needed--but I don't see the Jays drafting today.
If they do, maybe a pitcher who gets returned before the season starts.

Petey Baseball - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 09:47 AM EST (#392655) #

This article has a few interesting tidbits on Lindor:

As the title suggests, it sounds and Cleveland wants to get a deal done very soon after being cautious the first month or so of the off-season. The Jays are listed as a likely destination.

The Mets don't appear to be a fit because Alderson has no intention of trading away the little prospect capital they have. On the other hand, it's pretty clear they are looking to make a splash in free agency. Nothing really new here, they've always seemed to be the Jays competition for George Springer since Day 1.

As someone earlier mentioned, it's been a bit of a slow start to the market; but I'm actually surprised there have been a few significant trades as of now. Whether the Springer/Realmuto/Bauer camps are just waiting other teams out to try and squeeze more years and dollars is the likely scenario. From the Jays perspective, this phony war period isn't a surprise, given that Rosenthal and others have made it clear the Jays will have to overpay for any free agent to get them to sign.
bpoz - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 10:59 AM EST (#392660) #
To compete you need V good talent. GMs get it in different ways.

I like the "stick to the wall" strategy. Cashman got Urshela this way. Atkins uses it a lot as well (S Brito). Waguespack and Pannone are examples of of small success using this strategy. Luciano. Drafting Chavez Young.

So huge failures but also a huge success is possible. J Santana.
scottt - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 11:35 AM EST (#392662) #
If the Jays really want Lindor they can sign him a year from now.
I'd like to see what Bichette can do over a full season.
To me, this is like the Arenado situation, a big contract that drags a team down.
Maybe A-rod was worth all that money back in the day, but it sure didn't turn Texas into a contender.

If the Jays wanted to trade some prospects for Bieber, that would be exciting.
One year of Lindor coming off a down year when he costs a ton and doesn't plug any hole?
Hard pass. Unless they take Grichuk and a bunch of middling prospects.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 11:46 AM EST (#392663) #
I agree, Scottt, about Lindor. Any prospects traded would be better served being used to get an impact starting pitcher.
Cracka - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 12:40 PM EST (#392664) #
Dany Jimenez selected by Oakland in the Rule V draft (Round 2, 18th pick overall) - second year in a row by a bay-area team... was selected & returned by the Giants last year.

LHP Jake Fishman selected in AAA phase. Blue Jays added SS Sebastien Espino from Mets.
Paul D - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 12:48 PM EST (#392665) #
Is there anyone you'd trade Bichette for? I'm not really inclined to trade him, but if you get Lindor, I wonder if they'd explore trading him for a Jack Flaherty type. That is, a similarly-gifted young player a position of need.
Glevin - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 12:49 PM EST (#392666) #
Only thing I can find on Espino.

"Espino is a contact-oriented shortstop who lacks bat control when he takes big hacks, and bat speed when heís under control"
scottt - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 01:32 PM EST (#392668) #
Weird way to phrase things.
Maybe a guy with a good 2-strike approach who doesn't strike out a lot but doesn't hit for a lot of power?

The A's took Dany Jimenez in the second round.
They took a CF from Cleveland. If the guy was close to being playable I would think Cleveland would have protected him.
The A's are contending, so I don't see them keeping Jimenez if he doesn't produce.

Lots of picks this year. Red Sox took a Yankees pitcher. The Phillies took a Yankees shortstop. The Marlins took a Rays pitcher. The Cubs took an Orioles pitcher.  Cleveland took a Yankees pitcher. The Mets took a Cleveland pitcher. The Giants took a Mets pitcher. The Angels took an Astros pitcher.

bpoz - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 01:36 PM EST (#392669) #
In the ML phase of the Rule 5 draft I don't think any young players were taken (lower minors). Happy that Winckowski and M Castillo were not taken. K Smith also survived.
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 02:40 PM EST (#392672) #
C's Plus baseball is back to following the Jays. Fantastic!!

Thanks for the plug, bpoz! Here's the latest below.
scottt - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 06:12 PM EST (#392674) #
The Jays made their move early with Castro.
Castro is way more interesting the Jimenez.

bpoz - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 07:04 PM EST (#392675) #
Well written mystery about detective R Fai. I enjoyed the story thanks C's+ (#2).
bpoz - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 07:42 PM EST (#392676) #
My Top 10 Jays Prospects are:

1 N Pearson. Potential Ace/#1.

2 A Kirk. Rose very fast through the minors.

3 J Groshans. V good power and arm beat out A Martin's hit and speed.

4 A Martin. V good hit and speed.

5 A manoah. Potential #1

6 SWR. Potential #1.

7 A Kloffenstein. Potential #1

8 O Martinez. V good hit, power and arm.

9 E Pardinho. Potential #1 because he is polished with good control and maybe command too. I think I read that he competed on the Int'l stage as a 14 year old. This would take nerves of steel. I also like the "small athlethe with a chip in his shoulder" bravado/confidence.

10 G Moreno. Really confident in his ability to make contact so has not walked much yet. I should not say negative things BUT there is a difference between making contact against low minor league pitchers and ML pitchers. I hope he can adjust successfully the way Bo did.
scottt - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 08:12 PM EST (#392677) #
Most of what made Pardinho interesting is gone, due to time lost to injury.
He throws a fastball in the low 90s that has late life.
He has a good curveball. Still needs to work on the slider and the change.

Elvis Luciano is no longer a prospect, but it will be interesting to see what the 21 year old will do in the minors.

John Northey - Thursday, December 10 2020 @ 09:31 PM EST (#392679) #
Elvis Luciano may not be an official prospect but for all practical intents is one. Lets hope he does well this year in the minors, well enough to earn a call up at some point then sticks in 2022 (his last year with options I think)
dalimon5 - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 12:51 AM EST (#392680) #
Players I would trade Bichette for:

Matt Chapman w/extension
Nolan Arenado w/ either more players, prospects or mark down money
Trevor Story w/extension
Ramon Laureano
Zack Wheeler
Sixto Sanchez

If a player isn't on this list then I don't want them or they aren't likely available via trade.
Thomas - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:28 AM EST (#392683) #
Trading Bichette for Nolan Arenado would be an unbelievably bad decision.
Mike Green - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:38 AM EST (#392684) #
Tampa traded Nate Lowe to Texas for a nice haul including Heriberto Hernandez.  It's the usual smart decision from the Rays, with the bonus of avoiding the "bad Lowes come in threes" curse.
Magpie - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:56 AM EST (#392685) #
Price was a disaster in my book.

In 11 starts, he went 9-1, 2.30, ERA+ of 179. Opinions may vary, but I still think he was an upgrade on Felix Doubront.
bpoz - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:58 AM EST (#392686) #
None of the new TB prospects needed to be added to the 40 man roster. I like that part as being smart.
bpoz - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 09:17 AM EST (#392687) #
Dombrowski just signed on with the Phillies. Very interesting. I wonder what he will do.
Mike Green - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 09:27 AM EST (#392688) #
Price's playoff troubles hadn't yet been conquered.  What makes it worse is that he managed to do it with the Other Evil Empire.

I lamented the inclusion of Matt Boyd in the trade at the time (he was an additional piece behind Daniel Norris).  Boyd has had a couple of good seasons, but I'm pretty sure that you make that trade again regardless if given a chance.
Glevin - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 10:23 AM EST (#392689) #
"Dombrowski just signed on with the Phillies. Very interesting. I wonder what he will do."

He only does one thing which is trade all the team's prospects, spend tons of money, and leave the teams he's in charge of a complete mess.
Mike Green - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 10:46 AM EST (#392690) #
Dombrowski has a 30 year history as a GM, with high points and low points.  He did a nice job of building a farm system in Montreal but his efforts didn't result in a winner. It might very well have turned out differently but for the 1994 strike.  He managed to make moves in 1997 to win a World Series for a penny-pinching owner in Florida.  He took over a bad team in Detroit in the middle of 2002, took his lumps in 2003, signed Ivan Rodriguez in the off-season and drafted Justin Verlander in 2004, and the club was off and running- making the playoffs 5 times in 9 years.  It's true that he went through the farm system for the Red Sox from 2015-19 after that, but the club did finish first in the division three years running and won a World Series. 

He's done all kinds of things for all kinds of clubs and won a little more than you would expect given the resources he had. 

greenfrog - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 10:49 AM EST (#392691) #
There is some truth to that comment, but Dombrowski's extensive track record of on-field success (regular season and postseason) should also be acknowledged. Also Wikipedia says that he "built a sound minor league system" during his tenure as GM of the Marlins in the 1990s, so there may be a notable difference between his early career as a GM and during his later career as a GM/President.
greenfrog - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 10:50 AM EST (#392692) #
My comment was in response to Glevin's.
bpoz - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 11:14 AM EST (#392693) #
I think the Phillies are already a mess. His mandate is probably to win a bit rather than build a farm system.

I agree with Glevin.

AA could not spend a huge amount of money. He used prospect capital. SD is using prospect capital to make the playoffs. Of course Machado was big money spent.

Fans are probably very unhappy with the Phillies at this time.
greenfrog - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 12:02 PM EST (#392694) #
His ideal habitat seems to be a team with (1) a deep and talented farm system (for trading purposes) and (2) a lot of money to spend. If you want some postseason flags/hardware and are willing to do a full rebuild afterwards, he could be the executive you're looking for.
Glevin - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 12:31 PM EST (#392696) #
"There is some truth to that comment, but Dombrowski's extensive track record of on-field success (regular season and postseason) should also be acknowledged."

To me, his success is similar to when a child of a billionaire launches a successful business. Sure, you did it but you had opportunities nobody else had. You work with the highest payroll or 2 in baseball and empty a farm system that somebody else built so he can win but it feels like basically anyone could have won in those spots. There are some situations where it's pretty easy to come in and have success and most others it takes a lot of work.
85bluejay - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 01:38 PM EST (#392699) #
I'm thinking that Dombrowski's hiring will slow down the market even more as the Phillies were said to have lost a gazillion dollars and looking to cut back, but with the Dombrowski hiring I expect agents will think that the Phillies will be spending.
85bluejay - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 01:50 PM EST (#392700) #
It's true that Dombrowski likes to spend and trade prospects liberally but he's had very good success and if you look at his big trades for Miguel Cabrera, David Price and Craig Kimbrel I'd say he did very well.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 02:53 PM EST (#392701) #
"He only does one thing which is trade all the team's prospects, spend tons of money, and leave the teams he's in charge of a complete mess."

Don't forget the championships he won.
John Northey - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 05:48 PM EST (#392702) #
Glevin - that was the argument against Cito Gaston winning Manager of the Year at any point. The Jays back then had the highest payroll in baseball and a strong farm. Of course, just because you have the parts doesn't make it a lock. His first 4 years he made the playoffs 3 times (no wild card remember) and won the series twice. Yes, the Jays in 1989 were strong, even if under Jimy Williams they couldn't make the playoffs in 3 years and were 12-24 when he was fired.

Yes, conditions matter - someone who takes a team from, say, 119 losses and gets them to the playoffs in 3 years has done something impressive (Dombrowski in Detroit - 2 years of over 100 losses, then 90+ for 2 more years, then in the World Series), then 4 years of dancing around 500 before 4 years of playoffs. They dumped him in 2015, and now Detroit on a 6 year no playoff streak. Yeah, he sold off the farm and everything else in an effort to make it. But dang, wouldn't we all give up every prospect in the system for 5 playoff appearances and 2 WS appearances in a 14 year stretch (how long he was there). Of course I enjoy the current system of keeping the kids while making it like this year. 2015/16 was tons of fun too and only 1 prospect lost really did anything of note I think (Noah Syndergaard) while some others did nice things but not 'wow' (such as Travis d'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman - most having 1 year that was significant but otherwise no more than a backup/reliever). Well, Yan Gomes kind of sucked to lose for a reliever and J.A. Happ for Saunders looked pretty bad afterwards. Some we expected to look bad on the Jays who didn't (Jeff Hoffman only twice in 5 season wasn't negative for WAR). Funny just noticed they signed Vlad the same day they traded Chase De Jong and Tim Locastro for international bonus space. Pretty safe to say those are connected and the price was low. Others that hurt a bit were Matthew Boyd (4 positive years in WAR peaking in 2019 with 3.6 WAR before going negative in 2020) & Daniel Norris (doing well now in relief, but more a 'meh' guy) but to get David Price in his prime that was the cost. Liam Hendriks also is one the Jays would probably like a do-over on although it was 2 blah years and 2 great ones. So I'd say the Jays did pretty good - cost lots of cash but prospects who worked out for their new teams? Syndergaard (big), Hendriks (solid), Graveman, Happ (offset by getting him back later), Boyd, Norris. The rest were no more than backup quality imo. Syndergaard and Hendriks the ones the Jays regretted, the rest not so much.
scottt - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:14 PM EST (#392703) #
Lind for Estrada worked out and, in retrospect, that looks like hitting the jackpot.
It's too bad that Saunders didn't work in left field.

One of the bad trade the current regime made was Hendriks for Jesse Chavez.
Maybe that trade doesn't happen if there is one half-decent starting option left in the minors.
Or maybe not.
Chavez was a starting option even though he didn't start in Toronto.
He did start 21 games for the Angels the next year.

Sometimes, it's a game of dominoes.

scottt - Friday, December 11 2020 @ 08:18 PM EST (#392704) #
Maybe the first thing Dombroski does is find a catcher.
If they don't have the money for Realmuto, does he go after McCann?

John Northey - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 01:14 AM EST (#392705) #
Yeah scottt that is the thing about trades - luck is a big part.

Perfect timing:
  • Jose Bautista - August 21, 2008: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Robinzon Diaz (August 25, 2008) to the Pittsburgh Pirates to complete the trade.
  • Edwin Encarnacion - July 31, 2009: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart to the Toronto Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. Yeah, he was put him on waivers and went to the A's for a month before coming back as a free agent, but I figure without the trade he'd have gone elsewhere. Saved the Jays around $3 mil (arbitration vs free agency). His total pay as a Jay $48.2 mil - Cleveland paid $33.3 mil for 2 years then traded him. I'd say the Jays did very well.
  • Josh Donaldson - November 28, 2014: Traded Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Sean Nolin to the Oakland Athletics. Can't do much better than this.
  • Marco Estrada - November 1, 2014: Traded Adam Lind to the Milwaukee Brewers (4.2 WAR lifetime post Toronto, Estrada twice was over 3 WAR here, 2015/16, total of 10.1 here vs 2.1 all other places combined).
Not having time to go through bad timing right now. But Dickey for Thor and others comes to mind immediately (Dickey Cy Young pre-Toronto, decent but not 'wow' here; Syndegaard went from solid A ball pitching prospect to 'wow' fast after leaving). Hendriks many hated to see go (Nov 2015), but it took another 3 years before he became a 'wow' (not bad for a waiver claim, traded away, traded back, traded away again).
scottt - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 08:34 AM EST (#392706) #
Phillies fans have been unhappy for a long time.
There was a group of them sitting behind me in the RC in a game in which Aaron Sanchez pitched just well enough to get the win. They were in a playoffs race. The Jays were out of it. They were pretty miserable.

scottt - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 11:30 AM EST (#392708) #
Dombrowski changed his mind about the Phillies once he learned that expansions have been put on hold.
Philadelphia is cutting payroll.
Dombrowski says that he's a "big believer in young players", that the Phillies are not one player away and that he has recovered from Covid-19.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 12:04 PM EST (#392709) #
There is an article in The Athletic about possible candidates for the vacancy in the Jay's radio booth. One person named was Kevin Barker and his bio mentioned that he was married to Hazel Mae. That was a shock!
Glevin - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 12:53 PM EST (#392710) #
"Don't forget the championships he won."

You give anyone super high payrolls, deep farm systems, and 30 years of being a GM I would expect a few championships.
John Northey - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 01:54 PM EST (#392711) #
For over 100 years the Cubs had the resources but didn't win a championship. In hockey you have the Leafs who have spent a ton but have never got to the finals in my lifetime and I'm 51. The Angels have NEVER been a bottom feeder in money spent but have just 1 World Series win - heck, one appearance in the WS over 60 years. Just 14 wins in the ALCS over all that time too. In the 80's the Yankees had Billy Martin (one of the all-time great managers) and Lou Pinella and tons of talent (Winfield, Mattingly, Henderson, among others) with tons of money spent yet didn't make the playoffs from 1982 to 1993. Or the Atlanta Braves from 1991 to 2005 won the division all but one season (1994 - on pace for a WC) but only won the WS once (against a team that hasn't won since the 1948).

There is a lot involved in winning. Both talent and luck. I'm very glad we had Gaston running the team in 1992/3 as he showed he understood the playoffs were different from the regular season - using his whole roster in the playoffs but with clear roles and even benching the should've been MVP for a game to maximize the odds of winning that one (yes, I still don't get giving Frank Thomas the MVP that year over Olerud who out hit Thomas and actually could play defensively too).

For a championship I'll happily give up every player in the system. But you better win when you put the chips in like that (2015/16 getting to the playoffs was well worth losing the kids we lost and 1994/1995 was a lot easier to take with the 2 WS wins in the pocket).
Mike Green - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 02:03 PM EST (#392712) #
Dombrowski didn't have super high payrolls or a great farm system when he arrived in Montreal, Florida or Detroit. It's true that Ilitch did increase the payroll after the team started winning. But his situation was nothing like Cashman in New York nor Freedman in LA. And unsurprisingly he didn't win as often as they have.
John Northey - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 03:31 PM EST (#392713) #
Ah yes, LA Dodgers - zero titles from 1989 to 2019. Heck, zero WS appearances from 1989 to 2016 - a 28 season stretch in which random odds say they should've got to the WS at least once. Despite a high payroll and normally a strong farm system.
scottt - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 04:36 PM EST (#392714) #
Mets has a deal with McCann for 4/40something.

Now, we'll see if they turn towards Springer or Bauer.

NYY seems determined to keep LeMahieu.
Kim is interesting, but if he wants to stay at shortstop, the Rangers might be a better fit.

I imagine Realmuto will sign for some discount now.

dalimon5 - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 04:56 PM EST (#392715) #
Did they divorce? They were married still during last season.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 12 2020 @ 05:11 PM EST (#392716) #
No, they're still married. Somehow I never knew they were, though.
Thomas - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 08:37 AM EST (#392719) #
The McCann contract was surprising to me, particularly in the COVID offeason.

It's hard to know what that means for Realmuto, as it eliminates one of his main suitors, but if I'm his agent I'd be pointing to that contract and then quietly noting that my client's career OPS+ is 25 points higher.

The Mets had been rumoured to be Springer's most likely destination and I think this increases the odds that they're going to land him (and/or Bauer). Even Cohen couldn't land all of the big fish.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 09:21 AM EST (#392720) #
BB could do a poll question (similar to the one the Fan did). Of the top three free agents, which would you prefer the Jays sign?

a) Bauer
b) Springer
c) Realmuto

My preferences would be (c), with (a) a close second, then (b).
bpoz - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 10:29 AM EST (#392721) #
Shapiro and Atkins are saying that the Jays are willing to spend under the right circumstances.

Their targets are described as a) Impact player (Atkins). b) 2 Elite players or c) 4 V good players (Shapiro). Ray IMO qualifies as a V good player. 1 elite and 1 more V good could be a good closer (elite) and a v good pitcher (Walker/Shoemaker). This seems conservative and fairly easy to do IMO.

I doubt an elite position player signs with us.
85bluejay - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 10:55 AM EST (#392722) #
I really like the David Dahl signing by Texas - good gamble - young, has upside,3 more years of control, can play CF and cheap - I wished the Jays had offered to buy his contract from Colorado before they non-tendered him and paired him with J. Davis in CF. Texas has had a really nice offseason so far - the Lynn trade , acquiring Brett de Geus in the rule 5 draft and now signing Dahl - the Rangers rebuild may be shortage than expected.
bpoz - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 11:47 AM EST (#392723) #
The AL West is probably going to belong to Oakland for the next few years. They seem to have the depth and balance needed to compete in a weak division.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 12:31 PM EST (#392724) #
As is always the case, Starting Pitching will be the difference in all of these divisions. OAK SP looks very delicate to me.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 01:23 PM EST (#392725) #
Yes, starting pitching, relief pitching, offense, and defense will all be important factors in determining who prevails in each division.
scottt - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 04:08 PM EST (#392726) #
The Mets didn't get a rebate on McCann, however, they saved 13-15M over Realmuto.
They're giving 19M to Stroman.
They're also giving Trevor 2/15.5M.
Now, Cano is saving them 24M this year, maybe prorated.
They'll still have to pay him in 2022/2023 unless he's a complete idiot and does more PEDs.

Still, a new owner wants to make a good impression, so they can still afford another big piece and cut payroll later.

Springer is a better fit for the Jays this year, but there's the issue of trading Grichuk and maybe Martin can play center in a couple of years. Bauer is always a good fit but it's hard to know how much he'll cost. Over 30M per year. Realmuto is in Encarnation's shoes, even though he hasn't refused anything. He's worth around 5/125M but maybe he'll go for 4 years with an option.  LeMahieu moving around the infield would work for me, but he's asking for the moon. Hopefully the Yankees give it to him. Kim is an option, but maybe he wants to play shortstop. Gregorius would be a great fit, but he might also want to stay a shortstop. Tanaka and Odorizzi and the next best starter available. They don't really excite me. Turner would be a good fit, if the Dodgers don't want him back. Hendriks or Hand would really solidify the pen. Paxton on a 1-year deal or Walker on 2 would be fine with me. LaStella would work in the infield. Jackie Bradley Jr would be OK on a 2 year contract, but that would complicate the outfield a lot. I don't think you move Grichuk for Bradley, but he and Hernandez would have to play a lot of DH, which means Guerrero moves back to 3rd or Tellez sits too many games.

Lots of options. As long as they don't trade for Lindor, or one of the other shortstops on anchor contracts.

Mike Green - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 04:45 PM EST (#392727) #
If the Blue Jays emerge from this off-season with Kim, Sugano and JBJ, I'll be very happy. 

I missed the 2021 ZiPS projections for Toronto over at fangraphs about a month ago.  They are quite favourable this year.  The top seasonal comp for Nate Pearson is Jim Palmer, and the system likes both Stripling and Ray.   And for the middle infielders, it's Lou Boudreau for Bo Bichette and Lou Whitaker for Cavan Biggio.  The crowd isn't yelling "Boo"....
John Northey - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 05:09 PM EST (#392728) #
I'd be very happy to see the Jays take a risk on those 2 non-MLB players Kim & Sugano. They could end up being the best bargains or worst waste of money this winter. Either way they are interesting. JBJ I'm not too excited by - solid player but defense is his core and he is entering his age 31 season. He'd be a good space filler until hopefully a kid comes up who can play CF and hit.

Since I learned of Kim I've been a believer in what he could be. He could be a very solid 3B option for years with strong defense and decent offense and his age (25) is perfect with this team. Sugano has basically been a Japanese Sandy Koufax who throws right handed when it comes to effectiveness (K's much lower). 2.34 ERA over 8 seasons is super-impressive with 3 years (including 2020) where he had a sub 2 ERA. A big roll of the dice right now would be a good idea imo. Especially since Bauer has a lot of other issues (wants to go every 4 years, only wants a 1 year deal, has attitude problems from what I've read) that could be problematic on a young team. I'd take him but those need to be considered. Next is Tanaka who'd be sweet to get but expensive and wants to stay in NY from what I've read. After those 2 you get 1001 'yes but' guys who either had good numbers in 2020 but not before or did poor in 2020 but were good before. Guys the Jays normally sign to fill out the rotation.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 08:06 PM EST (#392730) #
Also, I think it's wort noting that just because a contract is huge and long does not mean it's bad or an anchor. It seems that if there is a big contract signed then it's automatically an anchor and bad move, but that's just relative to the value and the front office decides that. It's not, for every team, solely about under-paying a player or paying no more than he's worth relative to a formula published by a 3rd party.

- an anchor contract is one that prevents the team from getting better. A good example is paying Carlos Delgado a large chunk of the overall budget and not having any room to upgrade your other positions.
- if you signed Delgado and still had room to bolster everywhere else then it's not an anchor contract anymore...all relative

I don't want Pujols, Lindor, or any player making that much money on the Jays...but only if it means that the budget is tapped and we can't find a way to upgrade the team enough to win.

I'm rather overpay a few contracts and win than have every player under-paid and or on super valuable deals like the Rays, and needing everything to break perfect to win.

I don't eat organic because it's too pricey but if it didn't affect .y budget I'd definitely pop into Whole Foods.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 09:20 PM EST (#392731) #
Iím not all that enthused about JBJ but I imagine he would be a useful asset over the next couple of years, adding around 1-3 WAR per year. Gurriel/JBJ/Grichuk/Teoscar would be a decent mix-and-match outfield and Bradley Jr.ís LH bat, speed and defense would add versatility to that group.

Sugano and Kim are interesting. I like that idea. Each would be a lower-cost option than the marquee US free agents and neither would require the Jays to relinquish a draft pick. If the team signed both and one of them worked out well, that would be a net positive for the organization.

Depending on the years and cost for Realmuto and Bauer, I would still
like to see the Jays compete for those players. I like Jansen and Kirk and the organizationís depth at catcher but adding Realmuto could be a Russell Martin-like catalyst for the team over the next couple of years.
scottt - Sunday, December 13 2020 @ 10:44 PM EST (#392735) #
The draft pick is not an issue.  The 2021 second rounder will fall close to the 2020 third rounder (Palmer, 28th in the system).
greenfrog - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 07:50 AM EST (#392736) #
You mean near where Bo Bichette was drafted in the 2016 draft. Good to know, thanks for clarifying.
bpoz - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 08:47 AM EST (#392737) #
23 pitchers on the 40 man roster. 5 SPs that have 1st crack at the rotation are Ryu, Pearson, Roark, Ray and Stripling.
I am not counting Luciano as getting an opportunity with the Jays (development in the minors). That leaves 17 pitchers for relief to start with as openers, long and short relief.

Some contracts will expire at the end of 2021 (Yamaguchi) and a few 3rd options will be burned (Murphy). Rule 5 protection (Dec 2021) will be needed for (J Murray, Pardhino Etc..).

Atkins seemed pleased to have this large quantity of inexperienced/unproven pitchers. He saw it as a big asset I believe. I suppose he is hoping that a few will develop into useful pieces in the continuing rebuild.
scottt - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 10:05 AM EST (#392741) #
Most guys have worked great in the bullpen.
Dolis, Romano, Borucki, Murphy, Merryweather.
Tice, Castro, SRF and maybe Hector Perez and Yennsy Diaz are shuttle candidate.
Yamaguchi will hopefully be more consistent. He could get ditched half way through if he struggles.
Waguespack and Lockett could be on the bubble.

Zeuch, Hatch, Kay and Thorton (assuming he's rehabing) should be in the AAA rotation.

Having a bunch of guys who can throw well and not face the same hitter twice is a winning strategy.
As long as they throw well.

Mike Green - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 10:10 AM EST (#392742) #
One more cool comp season from ZiPS.  The age comp for Santiago Espinal's 2021 season belong to Charlie Montoyo. 

The system quite likes Simeon Woods Richardson.  He ends up with a very similar major league projection in 2021 to Tanner Roark- actually a smidgen better.  SWR just turned 20 in September. 
Cracka - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 11:37 AM EST (#392747) #
The age comp for Santiago Espinal's 2021 season belong to Charlie Montoyo.

Very interesting - both followed a similar path to the big leagues; moving to Florida as teenagers to play baseball and learn English, earning scholarships, playing collegiately well enough to get drafted, earning promotions through the minors despite being 5 foot 10 inch contact hitters.
bpoz - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 11:55 AM EST (#392748) #
Ryu was able to get into the 6/7th inning and was healthy.

Walker (part time Jay) and Shoemaker injured were also able to get into the 6th inning.

Stripling, Roark and Ray could not get into the 6th much.

Merryweather and Hatch were 2 inning openers.

It is possible for Roark, Ray and Stripling to pitch into the 5/6 inning. If not the pen will be overburdened.

If there are 5 playoff teams for 2021 I can see the Jays missing the playoffs.

scottt - Monday, December 14 2020 @ 08:10 PM EST (#392765) #
Tim Mayza appears to be recovered.
It looks like he's still in the Jays system and will be competing for a bullpen spot in the spring.
I'm not sure how that works. Was he rule 5 eligible?

Magpie - Thursday, December 17 2020 @ 01:22 AM EST (#392799) #
Was [Mayza] rule 5 eligible?

I don't believe so. Correct me if I'm wrong, gang, but I believe the Rule 5 is for players who haven't been added to the 40 man roster after a certain amount of time in the organization. Mayza had previously been added, obviously. He was outrighted to Buffalo after he blew out his arm and will be in camp - whenever! - on a minor league deal.
scottt - Thursday, December 17 2020 @ 08:33 AM EST (#392800) #
Let's see.

Mayza was outrighted to AAA and had to go through waivers where he could have been picked by other teams, but none wanted to pay him to heal. 

The rule 5  says that any player on a minor league reserve list who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career is eligible for selection. It may be that the other teams didn't know/trust that he would have been ready in the spring?

Also, I hear that being returned from the rule 5 counts as being outrighted even though the player does not go through waivers which means that Jimenez would become a free agent once returned to the Jays--unless they put him on the active roster. I couldn't find the rule for that one.

johnny was - Friday, December 18 2020 @ 12:54 PM EST (#392813) #
Kevin Pillar was just on MLB Hot Stove with Harold Reynolds and he made an interesting admission. He said the experience of being a free agent for the first time and getting limited interest led him to realize that clubs would value him more if he got on base more frequently. So he did it, at age 30, after six years in the league. Did no one in Toronto think to mention that to him?
Dewey - Friday, December 18 2020 @ 01:34 PM EST (#392814) #
Interesting piece on Manny Ramirez being Manny down in in Australia.

Hope the link works.
scottt - Friday, December 18 2020 @ 02:02 PM EST (#392815) #
Probably. It think it was just him always trying to get a hit,  not him chasing pitches for the good of the team.
I remember a year when he was trying to become the leadoff hitter.
I'm pretty sure he was trying to get on base then, at least early in the year.
Walking is one of the "old people skills", so it's not shocking that he would try to walk more and hit the ball harder as he gets older since legging up a double is getting harder.
Another idea is that players who don't have a huge BABIP peak earlier and decline faster. 
Also, pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs, so there might be more walks out there.

Pillar was a CF. There's only 30 of those and they tend to be younger.
If he needs to move to a corner because his defense isn't what it was, he needs to produce more offensively.
That shouldn't be a revelation.

Springer, for example, will probably need to move to a corner in a few years.
That's not a huge problem because he hits enough.
Pillar never had that profile.

Chuck - Friday, December 18 2020 @ 07:09 PM EST (#392818) #
So he did it, at age 30, after six years in the league.

While he did record his highest ever walk rate (a dazzling 5.8%), he also had the good sense to offset his highest ever K rate with his highest ever BABIP. Some mirrors were involved in this illusion.

Further, what is missing from his 2020 season were the remaining 400 PAs for him to eventually show his true colours. We have seen the April/May Mr. Discpline act from him before, only to see a reversion to his hacktastic self by summertime.

Whatever Pillar is selling, I ain't buying.

scottt - Saturday, December 19 2020 @ 08:56 AM EST (#392822) #
More K's to go along with more  BBs is normal. It's fine as long as it comes with more HRs as well.
His HR/FB ratio was 10.3% which was just a tad lower than last year's 11.1% which saw him lead all counting stats in San Francisco. It's a lot better than the 6.6% and 4.5% he showed when the Jays were making the playoffs.
His hard hit ball percentage is up to 36-37% which is much than the ~27% he showed in Toronto.

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