Shame to miss seeing Soto, the closest thing to Ted Williams in today's game. Yes, I know he is not Ted Williams, no need to go there with me. At age 22, Ted started regularly posting an OPS+ above 200. Soto did live there last year, at age 21, though in an abbreviated season.

At the time the Nationals had to essentially choose between committing to Strasburg or Rendon, I disagreed with their choice given Strasburg's brittle history. I don't believe I have any reason to change that position.

It's disappointing to see Panik starting out of position with Espinal, the team's best 3B, on the roster. He hasn't even been particularly successful against Scherzer over his career.

Panik has 21 AB against Scherzer, the rest of the lineup has 20 AB.
Panik has gone .191, the rest of the lineup .050.
Panik has 1 HR, the rest of the lineup 0.
If you gonna start Panik, why not now?

RHB have an OPS of .577 and LHB are at .721.
If that's not the time to use all the left bats you got, then when?

Nationals as a team hit .242 with a .664 OPS. They have 14 HR.
Jay hit .225 with a .660 OPS. They have 24 HR.

Seeing various reports that Springer NOT playing tonight..

Seeing various reports that Springer NOT playing tonight..

Crazy, eh? Who would have guessed?

I don’t understand your comment chuck. Before the weekend they said they were aiming for today. From the broadcast it sounds like tomorrow.

So…that was impressive.

Simply speechless. That’s an all-time matchup with an all-time result. The outfielders barely moved.

Sheesh. Grand slam against Scherzer. Guerrero will remember that one no matter how long and successful his career is.

Was that the real Tommy Milone?

I guess the Jays don't see Thornton as a starter, they refuse to build up his pitch count. I am not convinced he is a starter but desperate times.....

Wow. That might be the luckiest thing in the history of lucky things. We’ll take it.

Tweet from Sarah Langs of ESPN

https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1387198016885567490

And Vladdy just hit another!

Vladdy exit velocity tonight:

109 mph - GIDP

108 mph - Home run

110.5 mph - Home run

I have to commend Vladdy on turning his career around, he looks like who he was supposed to be now after he put the work in this offseason.

Great throw from Kirk. Tremendous ABs from Vladdy against one of the game's best. He had gone a bit cold with the bat, though he continued walking.

Thornton threw 29 pitches on 4/14, had two days rest and threw 25 pitches on 4/17, had three days rest before throwing another 25 pitches on 4/21, and then had a regular four days rest and threw 42 pitches tonight. If he doesn't serve up the second HR to Turner he likely goes deeper, but that's probably what getting stretched out in the bullpen looks like. Hopefully he starts and goes a little deeper on Sunday.

Payamps with a good inning and he hasn't pitched in a week, so he should get some run here too.

7HR’s so far. The ball is flying out in this bandbox.

Wasn’t expecting a slugfest today.

Hello Vlad Jr.

Best Jay of all time.

Add a 104mph home run for Vlad. That four hits at 104mph and higher tonight.

Vlad is so good we can now include him in the same breath as Trout.

Love watching this guy. Big smile reminiscent of Carlos Delgado and a swing at least as sweet.

Great to see Biggio get 3 hits as well.

So...Vlad might be good.

Another impactful tweet from Sarah Langs

https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1387221026401042441

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the @BlueJays is the youngest player in MLB history with 3+ home runs and 7+ RBI in a game.

— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) April 28, 2021

Montoyo really doesn't trust Jordan Romano. Using your closer to protect a four run lead seems less than optimal when your former closer is ready to go.

Surprising stat on her feed - Vlad Jr now has more 3 HR games than Vlad Sr. He never hit 3 in a game. Huh. I checked and 42 times he hit 2 HR's in a game, earliest for the 2nd was bottom of the 3rd on 8/15/2000 (strikeout & hit into a DP after). Who'd have thought? Junior now has bragging rights in his family for something.

Romano is a former closer? With 2 career saves?

Washington's having a weird year. They're 29th out of 30 teams in runs scored, which is what happens when you've been shut out 4 times in 20 games. And if they hang on to lose this one, they'll have gone 5-5 in the games when they do manage to score 5 runs or more. I don't understand them and I'll be glad to be done with them so I don't have to think about them no more.

Yeah I’d echo Magpie here. Romano has never officially been closer here sure he’s gotten some opportunities but he’s been mixed. Regardless he was down 3-5 mph with his pitches last game so until they get a bullpen session and find out why that happened you’re not going to see him in game I think.

Great game by Vlad. Mayza is off to a good start.

I liked the bullpen usage. It's too early to stretch Thornton and you don't want your relievers not pitching for 4 or 5 days because then you don't know what they have.  Dolis didn't throw that many pitches and can probably go back to back.

Still got Phelps, Borucki, Romano and Tice for tomorrow.

Vladdy is a joy to watch.

It was windy.

Good game for Kirk. His first runner gunned down this year.
To get a chance for a grand slam, you need the bottom of the lineup to get on base.
Decent game for Biggio too.

I was expecting a close game with more bunting.
 

Vlad has a wRC+ of 229 on the season after tonight.

If the Nationals walk Vlad 4 times they win this game. Tellez and Grichuk aren't going to make opposing managers fear that idea. Montoyo might need to bat Vlad 2nd and Bichette third. They will need Bichette or maybe Springer behind him.

It’s hard to watch Vladdy and not think of (peak) Miguel Cabrera. There are just so many similarities.

I would be comfortable with the Jays giving Vlad a Tatis-like contract. (A couple of years ago I think I suggested 10/$300m for him.) Probably the Jays will wait a couple of seasons and then try to extend him into at least his early 30s. We’ll see how that approach works out.

Not a stat I expected - three of the top 11 pitchers by the ol' ERA are former Jays farmhands. Musgrove, DeSclafani, and Boyd, the first two both finding some early success with their 4th organizations.

Scherzer is not walking anybody to pitch around them.
Even the manager is not doing that with the bases loaded.
Moving Vladdy up would just give you more solo bombs.

Certainly, you don't make adjustment for moves that the opponents are not making.
Grichuk has 4 HR, Semien has 5. Hernandez will eventually hit his share.
Bichette went 0-3 with a walk. Tellez went 0-3 with a walk.
Tellez left 0 runners on base.

Milone gave up 3 hits, walked 1 and struck out none but managed to give up only 1 run.
Personally, I'd have given the win to Castro.

Ben Wagner says Springer is playing tonight, either CF or DH.

It will be interesting to see Matz facing a bunch of guys who are familiar with him: just  Bell, Castro, Harrison, Turner and Zimmerman combine for over 100 AB.

How good was Vlad's game? As stated above his HOF dad never had a 3 HR game, his dad had 7 grand slams first in 2001, last in 2010. His peak OPS+ was 162 (2000 at age 25 for Montreal). We all know Vlad Jr will be trying to beat all his dad's personal bests. His dad did have a 9 RBI game in 2004 (June 2nd, one of his 2 HR games) so Vlad has a target for single games to reach still (I guarantee his dad will mention it to him).

Vlad: Nice smile. Having fun. Happy for his teammates success.

Odd to see the Jays are the only ALE team with a winning record at home.

It will be interesting to see how the Florida stadium plays out over the next few weeks. 8 homers in yesterday’s game alone. Glad we have a bunch of guys who can slug, especially with Hernandez and Springer on the way.

I hope they leave VG in the 3 hole and plug Hernandez behind him. I’d move Biggio to 9th so Springer has someone to drive home.

I expect to see Biggio back at third base tonight or on Friday

The eventual return of two outfielders who, health willing, figure to play most every day will change the roster calculus to be sure. Biggio will no longer be able to find time in RF so the team will have to re-commit to him at 3B or figure something else out. The unappetizing current alternatives are a 2B forced to play 3B who seems to be getting a lot of latitude simply because he bats left handed, though not well and not with power, and a glove man who probably can't hit. Less likely alternatives are moving Guerrero back -- he's settling in defensively at 1B and of course hitting a ton, leave him alone! -- and the likely non-starter of talking Semien into trying out a brand new position in a contract year.

A meh Travis Shaw, lefthanded and a third basemen, surely seems a much better fit than Panik on this roster.

Tellez teased us in 2020 and the hope was that his bat would force some issues in 2021. Not so much. If Springer ("he feels great except the running" -- Montoyo) and Hernandez find themselves doing a lot of DHing, an non-versatile Tellez is too much of a luxury on a 3-man bench.

Grichuk, the erstwhile odd man out, is doing everything he can to keep himself in the lineup (proving me and many others wrong) and it is now Gurriel who looks the vulnerable party to grab some pine. That said, a Tellez demotion would leave the team with 4 players (not counting Biggio) for OF/DH, so Gurriel would be granted a reprieve in this scenario.

The organization has some decisions to make and the juggling will prove interesting to watch.

Wasn't it just last week that I said a manager's job is almost solely about managing the pitching staff?

Hat tip to FG for this:
As of this morning 233/306/390 is the average AL batter with a 24.2% K rate.

Groshans just tweeted he is off to New Hampshire

"I would be comfortable with the Jays giving Vlad a Tatis-like contract. (A couple of years ago I think I suggested 10/$300m for him.) Probably the Jays will wait a couple of seasons and then try to extend him into at least his early 30s. We’ll see how that approach works out."


Yep I was with you on the $300/10 contract. It'll soon be too late for that i think.

Springer's return would be a nice time for the team to go above .500 for good.

Lack of ability to play anywhere but DH/1B has to put Tellez on the short end of potential demotions, even if he is the only LH power bat on the team. Who is on?

1. Jansen: CA
2. Vlad: 1B/DH - sometimes 3B if an extreme fly ball pitcher on the mound vs a LH pull hitting lineup
3. Semien: 2B/SS
4. Bichette: SS/DH
5. Biggio: 3B/RF/2B/could cover 1B/LF/CF if needed
6. Gurriel: LF/DH
7. Grichuk: CF/RF/DH
8. Springer: CF/RF/DH
9. Hernandez: RF/LF/DH
10. Tellez: DH/1B
11. Kirk: CA/DH
12. Panik: 2B/3B
13. Espinal: 3B/SS/2B
14. Davis: OF/PR

Two must go - Davis the easy cut (99% of his value is defense in CF and running), I suspect Espinal is the 2nd even though he has more use on this roster (due to defense) than Tellez (who needs to hit more to be the scary LH bat he can be). IMO going down to an 8 man pen makes more sense, then you can keep both Espinal and Tellez. Rotate the 4 headed OF with Tellez and give Vlad the odd day off and/or play him at 3B once a month.

As to pitching we've seen 19 pitchers already this season, 10 different starters. 14th in innings pitched (9th pen man) has 6 1/3 IP so far. 19 2/3 by #15-19. Only 2 pitchers have thrown 20+ innings (Ryu and Matz). No question Montoyo is shuffling everyone and getting them all innings. I suspect the Jays will keep the crazy deep pen for now as long as Montoyo is using them all. 3 times using 7 pitchers in a game, 7 times 6, 11 times 5. Only twice used 2 pitchers only (both Matz starts). Did a check of games by reliever to get an idea of when they were used and breaks.

• Phelps: 6 games off longest (hurt I think), otherwise never more than 2.
• Castro: once up, no more than 2 days off
• Merryweather: when healthy, 3 days off twice
• Payampas: 5 games max off despite being up and down a bit
• Romano: 3 games off a couple of times
• Borucki: 4 off his longest rest
• Dolis: 3 games off once
• Chatwood: when healthy no more than 1 day off
• Mayza: 1 3 game stretch, back to back, 4 games.
• Milone: 5 longest break
• Roark: currently on a 6 game break
• Thornton: 3 games off twice
• Tice: only threw once

I skipped guys who were primarily starters (Ryu, Matz, Ray, Zeuch, Kay). Seems other than Roark the pen is getting lots of use. I remember in the past there always seemed to be a guy with 5+ days off between games. No doghouse here it seems. I suspect Roark is more being saved as a backup starter (ie: starter out quick) and I think Montoyo isn't a fan of his.

Vlad does not even have 1 month of superstar performance.
Even if he keeps hitting like this all year, there is still the question of fitness and health.

The Padres contract is meant to keep's Tatis' salary down over the next 7 years.

First thing, some games in Toronto.

How long until we see vladdy given another run at 3B?

I suspect he'll get the odd game here and there but not a real run at it. Maybe not even a start. Given how bad Biggio and Panik have been there on defense I figure it wouldn't hurt, but the idea of 'he is doing well don't change things' makes a ton of sense. If he or the team or both are scuffling in July then I could see it happening but I doubt Vlad at 3B will be more than a filler in late innings after other options have been used up.

Phil Bickford released by the Brewers.

This year? Maybe a handful of games.

Next year? I expect Espinal, Martin and Groshans to compete for the spot.
Maybe they'll find a left bat to form a platoon with Espinal to start the year.

Without left bats, the team is too vulnerable to an ump giving the outside corner into the empty batter's box on sliders.
Next year, the roster will likely be 13 pitchers and 13 position players.

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but both Vlad and Vlad jr. have now homered of Max Scherzer. With so many father/sons in MLB, it must not be overly unusual or is it?

I suspect it's fairly unusual for father/son players to homer off the same pitcher: Vlad Sr. was only 24 when Jr. was born, so he was a fairly young dad for our modern age. Our Vladdy made the majors at a pretty young age, so there were only 7 seasons between Sr.'s final year and Jr's first. Craig Biggio's final year was 2007 (and he was hanging on to get to 3,000). Dante Bichette's final season was 2001, so Bo isn't going to get much of a chance - and I think that's more typical.

Not released. DFAed. He probably gets traded for cash considerations.

He still has 2 options left, but needs a spot on a 40 roster.
He hasn't pitched much in recent years due to injury (broken fingers) and suspensions (drugs of abuse).
Maybe not a bad project if one has the roster space.

I suspect it's fairly unusual for father/son players to homer off the same pitcher

I do remember that Ken Griffey and Ken Jr. both homered off Kirk McCaskill.

Magpie, as usual, beat me to it. As noted above, it takes a unique confluence of the father having the son at an early age, the father having a long career, the son making the majors at a young age and pitcher longevity. I would have put money on the Griffey's and the Bonds' as possibilities.

Magpie falls to mention the kicker: the Griffeys homered off McCaskill back-to-back on September 14, 1990. Senior was the left fielder for the Mariners that day, Junior the centre fielder.

I just started playing around with random father/son pairings on bb-ref. The first one that I tried also had a match: Jose Cruz Sr. & Jr. both hit home runs off of Orel Hershiser.
But there really aren't that many father/son combos that both have lots of dingers, so it wasn't really that random!

It might be easier to find someone who homered against a father and a son - say, Mel and Todd Stottlemyre. Mel pitched until 1974, Todd came up in 1988. There's bound to be someone.

Interesting bit at ESPN on a couple of Moneyballs that teams are now copying. The Cleveland pitcher is best known. Teams used to draft tall skinny HS kids with good stuff, athleticism and flashes of secondaries. As they matured and packed on muscle the hope was the velocity would increase, the secondaries improve and the athleticism would translate into command. Think Aaron Sanchez or Thor.

Cleveland went a different route - drafting college pitchers who already had the command, and work on increasing velocity while refining the secondaries. The best part - these were still available after the first few rounds. Some teams didn't draft these guys at all until everyone they liked was gone. The Jays Trent Palmer pick was one of the few mentioned from 2020.

It was Tampa for hitters. Short levered MI's with minimal power, not great athletes or defenders, but the ability to hit. Specifically so because of pitch recognition, a skill that teams haven't been able to improve more than a minimal amount. But if a player has that innate ability, plate disciple can be taught and power can be added. The first guy that came to my mind from the Jays isn't an MI, it's Al Kirk.

Springer activated and Tellez optioned. Surprise!

Ryu has also been placed on the IL with Travis Bergen recalled.

The Jays are down to two starters from the start of the season.

Not too surprised that Rowdy's down, TBH. OPS+ of 39, with negative defensive value, and your star CF needs to DH a few games to finish healing? Gurriel has value as a pinch-runner (for Springer after 3 ABs, for example), etc. Rowdy has one skill: hitting - and right now, he's dragging the team down by being very bad at it - his highest OPS at the end of a game was .513 on April 17.

I'll admit that I am surprised that Tellez has been sent down given the current lineup imbalance. When Springer is ready to play everyday in the OF, I would assume that Tellez and Davis switch places with Gurriel/Tellez and a middle infielder rotating through the DH role. Gurriel is currently providing even less value than Tellez but has a history that should buy him some additional time. But man, when he and Teoscar struggle, they really struggle.

Called it. Tellez has less value than Espinal on the current roster. To stick he had to be pounding the ball - a 120+ OPS+. Instead he has a sub 40 OPS+. Hard to justify keeping a DH/1B who hits that poorly.

Ryu sucks but again not a shock. With luck he'll be on the IL for the minimum and be back at 100%. I'd rather he goes down for 10 days now than down for 10 weeks later.

I suspect we'll see the 4 man OF/DH rotation now, with Springer getting lots of DH time until he is at 100%, probably Hernandez getting tons once he is back. Until Hernandez is back I expect Biggio to be in RF with Panik/Espinal splitting 3B. Surprised Panik is at 3B tonight as I'd put Espinal (stronger on defense at 3B) in instead with a LHP on the mound.

Hmm. Tough year for pitchers.

Hope they push the envelope more with Thornton. I know they have to build him up but always sticking to 2 innings doesn’t seem like a lot of building. Suspect Roark will be back in the mix when he returns, may be with an opener.

Keeping Davis instead of Tellez suggests that Springer will be playing DH rather than CF for the coming days.

“Surprised Panik is at 3B tonight as I'd put Espinal (stronger on defense at 3B) in instead with a LHP on the mound”

Fedde’s listed as the starter and he’s right handed. If the Jays are leading late in a close game, I wonder if they’ll sub in Espinal as they should.

I guess Biggio is batting fifth to breakup the righties. I hope last night was not a mirage.

They still want a couple of left bats in there.
Espinal could play against a lefty and Davis is mostly down to defensive replacement.

Thornton is ready to start on Saturday.
Stripling is a possibility for Sunday.

We'll likely see Smyly over the weekend.
Oakland has 3 lefties, so they'll probably see 2 of them.

Bo with the slowest turn from 2nd to 1st and Schwarber is safe be a few feet.

That's more like it.

Springer comes back --> pitching implodes

Gah.

That has to be one of the better 3.2 ip 6 er 8 h pitching lines I’ve ever seen. Matz didn’t quite have it but so many of those hits just found the perfect hole. That’s arguably more frustrating for a pitcher than instead just getting totally beat up.

I’m wondering if the Jays should consider extending Matz, maybe for two more years at around $10-12m per year. Cheaper than Roark, higher upside, LHP. He could be a useful mid-rotation (#3 or 4) starter over that timeframe.

Ben Wagner is reporting that Alek Manoah will start in AAA and Simeon Woods Richardson will start in AA.

Hmmm

End of year rotation like this?

Ryu / Pearson / Ray / Manoah / Matz

Gerry - great to hear. Manoah and SWR are the future. Hopefully both have great years this year in the minors and are ready for a full shot in spring next year, and ideally one of them is ready by July/August for a pennant push. Not betting on it, but it is possible. AA to the majors is not that far, and AAA is as close as it gets.

"Ryu / Pearson / Ray / Manoah / Matz"

Pearson would be 5th

This team. Beat up on Scherzer Tuesday. Wednesday we face Fedde who in 38 career starts had a game score of 68 or better twice. Now it's 3 times in 39 starts. SMH

Mets should have just signed Realmuto.
DeGrom got beat by Pivetta.

Nice to see Romano pumping 98 again.

Good to hear. I didn't stay up to watch it.

The farm teams should be moving out of Dunedin in 4-5 days I suspect. Interested in seeing rosters.

I'm pretty pleased with the split. See, I was thinking - there's no way Matz is going to start the season 5-0. He just won't. He's due to lose. Which means they'd have to beat Mighty Max. Which is never an appealing prospect.

I happily take the split.

That’s arguably more frustrating for a pitcher than instead just getting totally beat up.

No kidding. You're being nibbled to death by ducks. It's excruciating. At least tigers just tear your throat out right away, it's all over in a hurry.

Marcus Semien's OPS+ since his rookie season: 93, 98, 99, 97, 95, 140, 90, 92.

Save for one magic summer where the cosmic tumblers aligned, this man has been consistent.

He seems to be sitting fastball and trying to yank everything over the wall.
He said he's still getting used to new pitchers and getting an idea about how they're pitching to him.
Also, I doubt he'll ever hit lead off again.

The irony with Springer starting back as DH is it may hurt us in the short term. He may well have some rust to work off, whereas Tellez was starting to hit.

It’s a pity he’s not ready for CF, as I’d rather have Gurriel on the bench- at least some of the time- and Tellez as the DH now that he appears to be heating up. But such is life in 2021, I guess.

That Springer guy's a bum! 0-for? How much is he getting paid to hit line drives right at people? DFA him now!
/s

The so-called "braintrust" still hasn't figured out the batting philosophy they should be teaching players is "hit 'em where they ain't"

Today's a pretty good day. Both Yankees and Rays lost.

Yankees seem to have the easiest schedule so far.

Next, Braves at Jays, Astros at Rays, Tigers at Yankees.

That Yankees loss was kinda brutal.
They tied it in the 9th on a ground rule double with the winning run at third.
That was from Torres who has like 50 HR against Baltimore. (They unjuiced the balls.)
Then they sent Wade to bunt in overtime on the road against Scott who has more walks than strikeouts.
So of course he fouls out and they don't score.
Then the Orioles bunt and hit a sac fly.

The indie Pioneer League is taking a page from the NHL and using a home run derby instead of extra innings for tie games.

A home run derby to decide ties is OK in the minors (more fun for fans, no risk of wearing down your pitchers), but not the majors imo. I'd look at immediate in extra for low minors, after 10 innings in A+, 11 in AA, 12 in AAA (get guys ready for the majors that way, and still provide fun for fans at each level).

Vlad would love a home run derby to decide games.

They're also testing a rule in which a player can pinch hit or pinch run but the original guy returns to the field.
I guess that would be great for a guy like Tellez to get at least one AB each night.