Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Vancouver won with a ninth inning walk-off. This was due to nine innings of one run pitching by Paxton Schultz and Hagen Danner. Dunedin's pitching was hit around again by Tampa, but Addison Barger stayed hot. The Bisons and Fisher Cats were rained out.

Buffalo at Scranton - postponed

New Hampshire at Somerset - cancelled

Everett 1 Vancouver 2

Tampa 13 Dunedin 10

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

Vancouver won with a walk-off. In a tied game Spencer Horwitz led off with a double, moved to third on a ground out and scored on a sac fly by Luis De Los Santos. In total the C's had four hits, Horwitz had two as did Sebastian Espino who drove in the first run.

Paxton Schultz threw six shutout innings with eight K's. With the three true outcomes up all around baseball, we have to reevaluate what a strikeout rate of nine means. Hagen Danner threw the last three innings. He allowed one hit, a double, that came around to score.

Dunedin's pitchers were hit around again. The starter, Rafael Ohashi, did OK with one run allowed in 2.2 innings. However he walked four and threw almost as many balls as strikes. The bullpen gave up the other twelve runs.

The Jays scored ten runs on seven hits and 13 walks plus three Tampa errors. These games must be a treat to watch, 19 walks in the game which took 4 hours and 22 minutes to play. Remember this league is using the automated strike zone. Addison Barger stayed hot going 2-4 with a double and two walks. Orelvis Martinez also had two hits. Steward Berroa hit a three run home run, Miguel Hiraldo drove in three runs.

Three Stars

Third Star - Addison Barger

Second Star - Paxton Schultz

First Star - Spencer Horwitz

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:15 PM EDT.

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hypobole - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#399077) #

"we have to reevaluate what a strikeout rate of nine means"

To further your point, Gerry, 59 High A West pitchers had thrown at least 10 innings coming into today. 48 of those 59 have a K rate of 9.26 or better. The median guy (30th place) is at 10.80 K/9.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#399087) #

That puts Vancouver in a 3-way tie with Eugene and Everett.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#399102) #

An excellent point on K/9. Checking the full Jays system by decade, and AAA to give the highest minors in case it is different

2021:10.7 AAA: 11.4 (Buffalo/Trenton)
2011: 7.8 AAA:7.2 (Vegas)
2001: 7.0 AAA:6.6 (Syracuse from this point back)
1991: 6.9 AAA:5.6
1981: 6.2 AAA:5.2

So more than double the 1981 & 1991 figures for AAA. Yeah, I'd say that is a big change.

Dave Stieb was viewed as a strike out pitcher in his day, yet his K/9 never passed 6.7 in the majors, 7.8 in the minors (1992 on rehab). I'd say things have changed a LOT. Of course at 22 he threw 242 2/3 IP in the majors, so a lot of things were different.

Get more balls in play and defense becomes a much bigger factor. I love that MLB sees this as important now and that they are experimenting with a lot of changes in the lower minors now - robo umps, bigger bases, moving the mound back a foot, infielders required to be in the infield, 2 on each side of 2B, limits on pick off attempts, 15-second pitch clock. Some will flop but some will stick. I love the pick off limits (I hate watching a pitcher play catch with their first baseman), I read talk of changing the strike zone (made easier with robo umps) to be shorter and wider - seems that would reduce the incentive to swing for the fences and get more going the other way swings and the like. I'm good with that as I loved watching Tony Fernandez, Alfredo Griffin, and Damaso Garcia reach a foot out of the zone to slap it the other way for a single back in the 80's. Even sluggers like George Bell would do that. The Jay hitters are starting to do that more often now to beat the shift which is nice to see.

More stolen bases would be a lot more fun than more K's. As would better defense - love those guys who can make amazing plays in the field. Sluggers like Vlad are fun, but we need more variety.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#399105) #

Do robo umps put more ball in play? They only affect the pitches that are not swung at. Maybe more walks?
Infielders in the infield will mean more ground ball hits, which are singles.
Preventing the shift will mostly just encourage the full pull hitters to swing for the fence.
The normal adjustment is to throw lots of breaking stuff outside.
I'm not sure about the pitch clock. I think that one will not make it for a while.
What if the pitcher ask for a new ball every time?
The pick off limit is interesting, but what happens when you reach the limit?
The runner takes a huge lead?
Ideally, they need to figure a way for the pitcher to tell the catcher what he's going to throw.
No need to waste time shaking all those signs.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#399110) #

Read somewhere that they are talking of a new system where the catcher has a keypad to tap and the pitcher gets the signal from that in a way the other team cannot detect thus killing sign stealing.

The 2 throws then a balk is after 2 throws to a base, the 3rd throw better get the runner out or it is a balk. Can still keep the runner reasonably close so you don't get guys like Kirk stealing but a big advantage for guys like Davis who can then push it a bit.

Robo Umps is more to reduce the variable strikezone we are subjected to every game. After all, can you remember a game where you didn't see at least one bad call by the ump on ball/strikes? The best recorded had 1 mistake. Ump Scorecards now has an online archive to make it easier to see. Net effect this year is -2.41 runs due to umpire error for the Jays this year. 3 to 20 pitches called wrong in Jay games this year. 4 times the umps got a 100% for consistency, down to an 89%. Good old Joe West ranges from 91.1% to 97.1% consistent. This is a guy who has done more games than anyone - you'd think he'd be more consistent by now. He is near the bottom for accuracy and consistency.

GabrielSyme - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#399117) #

Robo umps should actually result in fewer pitches put in play. The way actual umpires call balls and strikes is dynamic: the zone tends to be smaller when the pitcher is ahead in the count, larger when the pitcher is behind. Forcing the zone to be called the same regardless of count is going to mean more called third strikes and more walks.

I have other reasons why I really don't like the idea of robot umps for the strike zone, but it's a little crazy they're even considering it when one of the major concerns they are trying to address right now is the lack of balls in play.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#399120) #

I think they're looking into lowering the top of the zone and raising the bottom in conjunction with the automation.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#399121) #

Stand corrected - just the top

�When (the electronic strike zone) comes, it�s really easy to make adjustments in the strike zone,� MLB consultant Theo Epstein tells Nightengale. �We�re trying to optimize contact. So, the way the strike zone used to be a little bit wider and a little bit shorter, which was better for contact. Now, it�s really tall, but narrow. So you can shrink the zone a little bit, especially the upper boundary, which might be better for inducing more contact.��

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#399122) #

GabrielSyme - I think you have that backwards. Umps tend to reward pitchers who show control while punishing those who don't. IE: if you can't find the strikezone with a map then don't expect calls on pitches close to the plate. If you can hit a flies behind from 60'6" (Greg Maddux) then if you hit the catchers glove it is a strike. Seen that a lot over the years. Less now actually than it used to be before they were marked on their strike calls. Gotta figure the umps like to be leading those boards, not at the bottom of them. So far in Dunedin (I think they are using it there) seems walks have gone through the roof as I suspect at those levels umps would call strikes just to speed up things as they don't want to be at the park for 5 hours every game.

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#399137) #

John -

Both phenomena can be true. The strike zone, as called, does change size according to the count. The magnitude of the difference may have changed since that article was written, but I have little doubt there's still a tighter strike zone when the pitcher's ahead in the count. And while I haven't seen a study on the question, I have little doubt that your point is true as well: control pitchers are able to get slightly better calls than guys who can't hit their spots. But I'm sure the zone for Greg Maddux changed with the count too: he got more favourable strike zone at 2-0 than 1-2.

I understand many people would prefer an automated strike zone; but we shouldn't be under any illusion that it will do anything but exacerbate the problem of increasing Ks and BBs.

Reply to This ]

hypobole - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#399141) #

Did you read Epstein's comments? The strike zone can be adjusted if automated strike zones don't have the intended effect of increasing contact.

ae_scott - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#399142) #

I think for me the problem with any of the proposed changes is that we really have no idea what the outcome will be.
MLB changed the balls this year so that they carry less - an effort to reduce home runs. It's worked...sort of, but so far what's happened is more fly ball outs and historically low batting averages.
Maybe, over time, batters would adjust and stop trying to hit everything in the air, but how long would it take for those adjustments to make a difference league wide?

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#399144) #

The main problem with the automated zone is that it will not be dynamic in the way that the called zone is (and has been since time immemorial). The dynamic zone means fewer called third strikes, fewer walks, and therefore more contact. A static zone necessarily pushes in the opposite direction. So you're starting from a huge disadvantage if you want to increase contact. I am extremely sceptical that any change in the actual shape and size of the zone could actually make up for the loss of the dynamic strike zone.

What Epstein is talking about is actually getting the automated zone to call a different zone than the actual rulebook. Which is fine, but why on earth are we contemplating disposing of home plate umpires and not even getting the rulebook strike zone? And if you want to actually change the rulebook zone, you can do so now without adopting an automated zone and losing the benefits of the dynamic zone.

And let's point out that any contraction of the strike zone would presumably reduce strikeouts, but will correspondingly increase walks, and vice versa. It's far from obvious that any change to the existing strike zone dimensions would, on balance, create a significant increase in contact.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#399154) #

The rulebook zone was always just a guess.

If we have data as to what zone actually is the most hittable, imo that is what the whole idea of having a strike zone was in the first place.

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