Chisholm and Marte are both hot.
Marte missing all that time explains why they're better than their record.
I don't think they have anyone that can really replace Rojas--a glove first guy enjoying a huge breakout season.

They are 13th for home runs in the NL, which is a good thing whey Ray is throwing.
Alcantara is kinda like their ace. 20 walks, 64 Ks, only 7 long balls.
He's got 4 pitches and can throw 100 pitches.

Lopez who starts tomorrow is change up heavy.
Bass was their closer to begin the year and he quickly imploded.
He's found his footing back in the 7th/8th inning role.
I hope the same will happen with Chatwood.

This looks like their first game in an AL park--if you can call Sahlen field that.
They signed Jesus Aguilar to be their DH and have been forced to play him at first instead, pushing Garrett Cooper to the outfield. Neither has hit that much, truth be told.

A little OT: I've been playing "Super Mega Baseball 3" the video game with the "2020 roster pack" (basically, rosters at the start of 2020 spring training), as the Blue Jays. It features free agents and a $175M budget - if you don't spend all of it, you get those $$ to spend on improving your players, you can sign/release players during the season (there are always some free agents), etc.

As I've learned / improved, I've also found that I couldn't hit with certain players - as is usual for me in a baseball video game, I hit better with LHB instead of RHB (weird, as I'm an RHB in slowpitch), etc. so I've had a huge roster turnover since the Blue Jays were so right-hand heavy. So the only two "original" Blue Jays left are Danny Jansen (good bang-for-buck for a right-hand hitting catcher who gets the occasional clutch 2B or HR) and Shun Yamaguchi, who is also a super-bang-for-buck long man. Not a great pitcher, but super-cheap.

Two other features of this game: it has both male and female players (generally with appropriate names), and as players age or don't get played enough or perform poorly, they retire and the computer generates new players with fictional names. Sometimes the retirement comes as a complete surprise: Hyun-Jin Ryu retiring after the FIRST season at age 32 or something was one of the huge blows to my team - he was an excellent pitcher on a good-to-great contract. So I had to scramble to rebuild my rotation. A.J. Bass was good as a closer to start, but later, couldn't hold a lead, Shoemaker could never get anyone out, etc. I finally couldn't handle the mediocrity of Roark anymore, even with his cheap contract.

So, after trying to be "like the Jays" for a bit, I gave up and started signing random players from the free agent market, as needed, which has led to the aforementioned "franken-team" Blue Jays.

I no longer have the time to know much about any team other than the Blue Jays, so I don't always know if a player I signed was "real" or a computer-generated name - I mean, I know "Boxer Frigate" is a computer-generated player, but I'm always surprised when I find that several of the players I've signed are stars on NL teams.  Which leads me to today's surprise and the reason for this post: the "Ace" of my staff, as I've finally qualified for the playoffs (I must have missed some setting, so only 2 AL and 2 NL teams make the playoffs!) is none other than Sandy Alcantara, who, until today, I thought was a computer-generated player :-) And, IIRC, Vladdy is currently playing for the Marlins :-) :-)

Magpie, your underselling the Marlin. Devastating combo of power and speed, the Willy Mays of the fish world.

If they don't hit homeruns, what kind of power are we talking about?
They are 14th in the NL in OBP, 12th in slugging.
They are 3rd in stolen bases in the NL, with 32 bags.
The Jays have 28 and are 4th in the AL.

They  have +10 run differential.
12th in runs scores, 3rd in run allowed.
A lot like Cleveland, no?
Maybe more balanced around the plate. Could see 4 or 5 lefties against Manoah.

Unfortunately Hatch, Mayweather, and Borucki are nowhere close to returning but hey, at least Springer ran the bases today!

Also, Huizenga got the Marlins before he got the Panthers.

Unfortunately Hatch, Mayweather, and Borucki are nowhere close to returning

So says Montoyo today. Anyone else puzzled by this? Hatch is already on a rehab assignment and Merryweather was supposed to be ready by the end of June if not sooner.

Hatch was on rehab but after his first outing he had a setback. Notice any recurring theme here? As for Merryweather, they did give an end of June target originally but I thought that I read somewhere that they really didn't have a timeline for him (I'll admit to being fuzzy on the Merryweather info). Honestly, with the number of injuries that each of the three of them have been through the plan has to exclude them for this year and then its gravy if any or all of them can get back.

Thanks Magpie for initiating discussion on the injured pitchers. In-season rumor mill:- Patrick Murphy may pitch for the Jays tis year. Maybe well even.

A city turns its lonely eyes to you, Vladito.

Is Gurriel getting any better in left?

I know we discussed it last week and Gurriel doesn't have a huge number of games in left but it doesn't seem that he is learning how to go back on a ball.

A city turns its lonely eyes to you, Vladito.

I think he heard you (first to third on an infield ground out?)

Jays baserunning by year 2016-2020: 25th, 29th, 30th, 24th, 22nd.

3rd best so far this year.

OAA ranks Gurriel 120th of 122 OF's for his flycatching "skills". That stat passes the eye test - he's awful.

Gurriel is certainly a weird outfielder. He often looks like he has no idea where a batted ball is going to come down, especially when he has to retreat.

On the other hand, he's got 18 BaseRunner Kills in 162 games. From left field. It's possible he's taking more guys off the bases than he's putting on them.

DRS and UZR, which attempt to be more all encompassing, both have Lourdes as slight positive overall.

6 assists this year, Teoscar 1, Grichuk 0.

So Chatwood to close tomorrow?

Carl Edwards is going to fit right in, isn't he?

1/3 of the season in.

Vladito

.337avg (#1 AL, #3 MLB)
17hr (#1 AL, #1 MLB)
45rbi (#2 AL, #2 MLB)

.441obp (#1 AL, #1 MLB)
.326iso (#2 AL, #3 MLB)

199wrc+ (#1 AL, #1 MLB)
3.4war (#1 AL, #1 MLB)

Dolis only threw 11 pitches. He could be available.

Well, today was fun. Lets hope Manoah can keep his 6 innings per start streak going (every start this season) with 1 or 0 runs allowed. If he can do that I think we'll all be very happy. For the last 3 innings who pitches if it is tight? If a blowout it doesn't matter as much. Dolis is probably available if needed, all others are very rested, I'd think Castro is high on the list, Payamps was getting ready in the pen tonight (did Montoyo learn his lesson?), has anyone heard anything about Cole? Is he healthy or does he have a nagging injury? Thornton will probably be first out of the pen in an attempt to get 2 innings then Dolis. Chatwood I only want to see in a blowout.

The city is still in pain, Chuck.

Then the city is not ready for Carl Edwards. I'm sure there are other guys who've been able to pitch in seven major league seasons while allowing more walks than hits.

None come to mind, though.

FYI: Canada vs Cuba in Olympic qualifying on CBC Gem. 4-0 Canada in the 4th

Was nice to have a real home crowd.
Cheers when the Jays hit. Cheers when there are 2 strikes on the last hitter of the inning.
Boos when the ump makes a terrible strike call.
I like it.

I saw a lot of Buffalo Blue Jays shirts.
It's a cool gimmick. Hopefully they'll soon be able to open even more seats.

Every reliever should be able to go back to back but maybe not after a shaky night.
I'd save Dolis for the 9th tomorrow. Lots of guys should be able to throw an inning to these guys.
Off day Wednesday.

Extra innings in the Bronx. Go Yankees, I guess.

Ugh. Feels bad to cheer the Yankees at any time. More, lets go 20 innings! Drain both pitching staffs completely. Then do it again tomorrow. If both Yankees and Rays are drained before their next series that is a good thing.

It's a stupid format. Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Israel? are already qualified.

Only one of  Columbia, Canada, Cuba, Dominican, USA, Venezuela, Nicaragua? and Puerto Rico? will qualify.

The last spot will be awarded at the final tournament between:
Netherlands, Taiwan, Australia and the second and third place teams from the Americas Qualifier.

It's awful baseball when you got a runner on second and 2 outs and you can't even bunt him to third for a contact play or a sac fly.

It sure does make the Jays pen look bad in comparison though.

"Ugh. Feels bad to cheer the Yankees at any time."

Hey, I'm cheering for the Astros tonight.

How about those Orioles. End their streak at 14.

Also, China had a team, but they withdrew?

The city is still in pain, Chuck. No need to rub salt in the wound

Was asking more than rubbing. I thought it was a little cavalier of Montoyo to use Romero with a 4-run lead in light of Chatwood's recent struggles (and thus presumed reluctance to have him be Wednesday's closer). I had forgotten that Romano has pitched on back-to-back nights a few times this season and should theoretically be available again, even despite Tuesday's high pitch count.

I'm sure there are other guys who've been able to pitch in seven major league seasons while allowing more walks than hits.

Mitch Williams.

Why wouldn't the club use Castro if they need someone for a high leverage role today?  I'd feel better about that than sending out Chatwood for that. 

Montoyo went with Romano because there's another day off tomorrow and he was already fully warmed up with the Jays only extending their lead to 4 with 2 outs in the 8th. The last few games Charlie has managed as if Romano isn't just his Closer but also his 9th inning man, with Dolis getting the 8th. Mayza crept back into the circle of trust with last night's performance, but beyond those 3 there isn't much confidence in the next tier right now. It would be great to be back in a position where Charlie can trust a Chatwood/Castro/Cole/Payamps/Thornton/Edwards with a 3 run lead so they aren't leaning that heavily on Romano.

Today is MLB's Inaugural Lou Gehrig Day. The Iron Horse. The Pride of the Yankees. The Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth.

But what about Wally Pipp? The poor pinstriper who lost his job. Well, he was a fine ballplayer. (The Yankee Pipper?)

Wally Pipp hit 148 triples, which ranks 54th all-time -- and hit 121 triples for the Yankees, which ranks 4th in team history. He was the MLB co-leader in home runs in 1916. Pipp led the American League in homers in 1916 and 1917.

Playing from 1913 to 1928, Wally Pipp collected 1941 hits, 1004 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts. After Lou Gehrig took over his position, the Yankees sold him to Cincinnati for $7500. In 1926, he hit 99 RBI for the Reds.

Wally Pipp also recorded 272 sacrifice hits, which ranks 23rd all-time -- and he holds the Yankees' franchise record with 226 sacrifice hits.

Among first basemen, Pipp ranks 16th all-time in putouts. His career range factor at first base ranks 6th best all-time.

I think it might be worth auditioning Thornton as a one inning higher leverage reliever. Tell him to throw as hard as he can for 20 pitches, junk the 4 pitch arsenal and go with whichever of his two breaking balls are the best. I think his current role as an opener/multi inning reliever is actually his likely role going forward (if any) but desperate times and all that.

Just heard that a formerly lousy third baseman with the Blue Jays is retiring and it's kind of a big deal.

Heh, I always remembered him as a 2B...guess the '79 season stuck with me more than the '81.

Today is MLB's Inaugural Lou Gehrig Day.

This is the work of the ALS community, in particular Bryan Galentine, Adam Wilson, and Chuck Haberstroh. It was on this day in 1925 that Miller Huggins first wrote a 21 year old rookie's name into the lineup at first base - he'd made a few starts in the outfield and pinch hit a few times over the season's first two months. He had three hits that first day and stayed in the lineup.

And it was on this day in 1941 that he died. At age 37. He was a special player, and he was a special man.

Kinda reminds me of someone who held a similar position here. Great trader, stockpiled a lot of draft picks, only hit a couple.

And on the subject of our former GM, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Constrained by payroll parameters in his time here, he's now in Atlanta where he's constrained by payroll parameters.

From The Athletic:

"Liberty Media is an emotionally detached owner that is constantly focused only on the bottom line, which is unfortunate for a corporation with $10 billion in revenue and $44 billion in assets."

"(Chipper) Jones, who became an assistant hitting coach with the team this season, called Liberty Media “an absentee owner. They’re not exactly rooted in what the Braves do on a yearly basis. They’re rooted in trying to make money off the franchise. That’s what companies do"

Nothing wrong with the owner trying to make money - if they set a budget plan (ie: when revenue hits $x you get $y to spend, want more, increase revenue) then the GM and president of the club can work with it. Much better than the old George Steinbrenner type who'd interfere with day to day operations at every level.

Ainge was the first (I think?) of many Blue Jays who have legacies in multiple sports. Mark Hendrickson also played in the NBA. Dave Winfield was drafted by the NFL, NBA, ABA, and MLB. Frank Thomas and Gabe Gross were Auburn football stars. Anthony Alford, Mark DeRosa, and Rick Leach were starting college QBs. Tom Candiotti is in the International Bowling HOF. Damaso Garcia was on the DR national soccer team. I'm sure there are others that I'm missing...

Jansen is sitting again today. Is he no longer the starting C, or is this the manager giving him 4 days off to clear his head and work on his hitting?

He may be a little banged up, not serious enough to put him on the IL (his next game action comes in August).

It's the same defensive alignment as Manoah's previous start, with McGuire catching, Tellez at 1B, Panik at 3B and Vlad at DH. I don't think this is a coincidence.

Meanwhile on YouTube, former closer Miguel Castro is on the mound for the Mets and Billy McKinney just showed some nice range in RF. He was congratulated for his catch by Kevin Pillar, all while Aaron Loup was warming up in the bullpen. Jonathan Villar left the game because of an injury, and Brandon Drury started the game in RF. The Mets, of course, are 26-21 with the largest division lead in baseball.

AJ Cole to the IL with a sore neck. Jeremy Beasley is back.

Another ex-Jay, Hector Perez, just got DFA'd by Cinci.
Little wonder - AAA stats 7 G, 8.2 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 11 BB, 7 K. 2 HBP, 2 WP.

Shows the difference between the divisions. Sure deGrom will play anywhere, but yeah that team would be in 4th place in the AL East right now. Atlanta who is the best hitting team in the division would be fourth in our division. Most of the top 10 in hitting are as well in the AL in general.

I'm sure there are others that I'm missing...

Pat Gillick invested the third overall pick in the `979 draft on Jay Schroeder, who did have a decent ten year career. In the NFL.

Third overall...

It turns out that pitching in the majors is actually difficult.

Three home runs by Miami, all from hanging off speed pitches. He needs to throw more fastballs.

Except his fastball velo was down too.

When you are throwing off speed pitches to walk the number nine hitter you need either more confidence in your fastball or better command of it.

Chris Weinke

BO, BABY.

Fantastic team win. Tremendous job by Payamps to get out of the bases-loaded jam and then pitch into a 3rd inning. McGuire rewarded the manager's confidence with a big hit to lead off the 9th, and a clutch swing from Bo ties it up. Great work by Maya-Thornton-Edwards-Castro to pick up their starter and keep the team in the game.

Why did Davis, who was not the tying run, PR in the 9th only once McGuire got to 2nd? If you're going to burn a player there, do it right away to potentially break up a DP.

I don't know why he pinch ran at all, but you do wait until he gets to second because you don't want to burn a quarter of your bunch if the next guy hits a grounder to the shortstop. He's not going to break up a double play because the runner on first doesn't break up double plays any more.

In the 9th inning, I heard a "Let's go Bo" chant (with Bichette batting) and later a "Let's go Joe" chant (with Panik batting).  I think I see what they're avoiding saying (and it makes sense).

Pre-game I spotted a "Buffalo (heart) MLB" sign.

Sure is a lot nicer to be on this side of the late game comeback.

I wonder if it will make sense in some post-COVID years to have the Jays play a series or a home game in Buffalo still even while being mainly in Toronto. Or maybe the last games before the season (sort of like Montreal some years). Some way to continue to recognize the Buffalo support and connection beyond just AAA.

I tend to agree with 'pinch-run for a guy on 2nd, but not when he is only on 1st'... but having said THAT, pinch running for the lead guy when you are down by two in the 9th is just kind of odd.

It would be hard to play in Buffalo, there is a risk of rain out, as we've just seen.
It's a bit cold to play there in April. Montreal has the Big-O.

It's great that the folks in Buffalo get some real games after last year's tease.
I hear the business in downtown Buffalo is thriving on game nights.
Also, more than the proximity, the fact that Bisons fans get to know the Jays prospects help to create some endearment for the Jays.

The Yankees could be a popular team in Buffalo though.

Manoah got half of his outs by strikeout. Two of the walks and the hit by pitch came from the bottom of the lineup in the 4th inning. It seems like Manoah was going with the slider or change up because the 2-seamer moves too much to get strikes on reliably.  Just need to throw more 4-seamers, but he didn't seem to have the velocity to blow it by this time.

Couldn't wait to get rid of Lopez with his changeup that was mostly a ball. 90 pitches in 4 innings. That's what I want to see.  Get into those bullpen if the starter is tough.

Nice work by the well rested pen getting it done.

I believe the bench is only 3 guys; catcher, 3rd base platoon and Davis.
Davis is used in defense when leading and as a base runner otherwise.
At home, if not leading, running for the catcher is about the only thing he can do.
No real reason not to replace McGuire sooner. Maybe he was looking for his gear.

6-2 since the 6 game losing slide.

I think the pinch running move was smart - you don't want a slow front runner to impede a faster trail runner with the potential tying run - so on a single, Mcguire might have to be held at 3rd and Semien who might have gotten to 3rd has to hold at 2nd or on an extra base hit a slower front runner might cause the trailing runner to hold at 3rd.

I just noticed that Semien is first in the AL in WAR at 3.2. He's ahead of Vlad at who is 2nd in the AL at 3.0. I was not thrilled about the Semien acquisition since it forced Biggio out of position -- but seeing what what Semien has done -- I take it all back. Semien has been incredible and arguably our best player to date.

Agreed on the hard to play a series in Buffalo each year - the Jays have 50k seats in Toronto, and with a winning team most of those will be filled. But Buffalo has under half that. Plus the park in Buffalo needed extensive renos to get away with it again this year and ML players don't like playing in a AAA park (locker room size, lights like the one giving Vlad a triple).

I see the Jays continuing to do a spring game at the end in Montreal, maybe looking at alternating between Montreal and Vancouver (neither park ideal but helps build the fan base across Canada). A shame there isn't an appropriate park on the east coast or in Alberta for them to play a game at the end of spring but all those areas would have is outdoor parks.

For Buffalo - I'd look at making it part of the Jays Winter Caravan - have a few US players go there for a Jays tour where they do signings, interviews, etc. like they do in Canadian cities in the offseason. Have guys who aren't US born/breed do the Canadian tour (Vlad for example). Right now 12 players are not US born on the roster, 28 US born. 6 Dominicans, 2 Venezuelan, 2 Canadian, 1 Cuban, 1 South Korean.

The crowds have been great.
Unfortunately, the Yankees are in next homestand and it will likely be a regionally pro-Yankees crowd for those 3 games.

WAR is an incredibly silly stat if it thinks Semien's position puts him over the top of Guerrero despite almost 200 pts of OPS.

Semien has been excellent beyond reasonable expectations, but Vladdy is the team's (and league's) MVP right now.

I could see the Rays doing those games in Montreal instead.
They seem to be quite serious between playing the April- early June games in Tampa and the late June-September games in Montreal starting in 2028.

Not sure about the US nationals. Would probably be good enough to send guys who have played several games in Buffalo. Also, you'll get all the Canadian fans from across the border at the same time.

that's bWAR quoted there.

the fWAR rankings:

1. Vladdy 3.5
2. Castellanos 2.9
3. Semien 2.8
4. Muncy 2.7
5. Bryan 2.6

in the offensive compenent of fWAR:

1. Vladdy 28.9
2. Castellanos 22.9
3. Acuna 20.2
4. Bryant 19.9
5. Muncy 19.8
6. Semien 18.0

Baserunning:

1. Kiner-Falefa 3.3
2. Merrifield 3.2
3. Edman 3.0
4. Baez 2.9
5. Semien 2.8
6. Bogaerts 2.2
7. Taylor 2.2
8. Hampson 2.1
9. Acuna 2.1
10. Vladdy 1.9


Defensively, out of 143 qualified hitters:

49. Semien 0.9
111. Vladdy -3.2


Important to note that there's not much Vladdy can do here - he actually rates quite well at 1B with a +8.6uzr/150, which is the 2nd best amongst 16 qualified 1B, and 5th best amongst 43 players with at least 100 innings at 1B.

it's just the nature of the positional adjustment.

Fangraphs has VGJ at 3.5 WAR and Semien at 2.8 WAR.

Guerrero has obviously been otherworldly this season. But Semien shouldn't be shortchanged. He's been excellent, and defensive value is a valid component of overall value. In earning his AL Player of the Month award for May, Semien hit .368/.429/.702 (wRC+ 209), which, remarkably, is even better than Vlad's offensive line (wRC+ 198) for the season.

A Rays/Montreal split season would be interesting. Doubt the players would be happy with it - as I suspect they prefer one home vs the 2-3 the Jays are giving them this year or a long term 2 city plan as the Rays are debating, or like there was between Montreal & Puerto Rico years ago. I'd prefer a 2 stadium approach - play April games in the Big Owe, after that in a new outdoor park in Montreal, playoffs if they make it in the Big Owe again. Not ideal, but at least then it would be just 1 city.

I can't see any smart investor building a new park in Tampa after the disaster for attendance in Miami with their new park - 2.2 mil year one, 5 years of 1.5 to 1.7 mil, then 2 years of 811k. What is the point of a team being in Florida if that is all you get? Miami gets 21k per game watching (households, so a bit over double in viewers which is how it is measured here). The Jays in 2020 had over 500k viewers per game. Rays get 75k per game in 2020. Yankees get 260k per game, Dodgers 233k, Phillies 195k, Cubs 176k, Mets 173k, Red Sox dropped from 150k to 72k last year. Given those numbers, why wouldn't you want to try a team in Montreal again with the massive TV audience potential in Canada? The Jays probably prefer things as is, with a few games in Montreal each year plus hype that they might get a team someday. I'd think a team in Montreal that is as good as the one in Tampa would get 250k per game minimum viewership and would pack the park.

All 5 relievers last night did well. All 5 are No Name types. None have really earned strong faith from Montoyo. There are probably 5 non prospect pitchers in AAA/AA that have not yet been called up that that may be just as good.

Tice pitched in 4 games. All 4 games were lopsided against the Jays when he came in. He was good in 2 and bad in 2. Going forward he may figure it out.

Snead seems one that could get a shot. If this results in someone being DFA'd, the player is probably not that great anyway. Musical chairs for up and down transactions. Carl Edwards Jr is an example. He chose FA rather than go to Gwinnett.

At this rate, Semien is going to be the single most interesting personnel decision that this front office has had to make. Resign him? That will take a Springer-like contract- which will come with risks given the wide divergence in historical performance and age (for a middle infielder) and might limit the budget for pitching help. Trade him for a significant booty at the trade deadline - this might have marketing implications if the Jays are competitive at the time? Keep him in pursuit of a playoff bid and a comp pick? Obviously, where the Jays are in the standings will dictate at least a portion of this. All are interesting choices though.

I can't see them buying high on Semien, but it would be great if they could get a draft pick when he lives.
Pitching will remain the biggest need.

I suspect the Jays will play out the season with a productive Semien and let him walk as a FA.

There was an article either evaluating the Jays signing of Semien, or reviewing his FA claims, or end of season that after a rough start Semien's 2020 was in line with his big breakout, and would probably have looked similar over a full season. So his production has been similar for the past 3 years. Age and position is a thing. Someone getting him to play 2B would have to take things into consideration. But I think this year helps him get something more than 3 years, because he's shown a willingness to move, and still been a positive. It means maybe he could be moved to 3rd, or moved around the infield to hide his defense when he slows down as long as he can still hit

You'd have to think they will give him the QO. I guess they could not as a show of good will because that gives him more chances to sign in more places, but I think they would give him the QO.

Semien is a tough one. This is his age 30 season, 27-32 is the traditional peak period, although I think 25-30 is more of the peak (I need to do a study on this again sometime). His 'normal' is a 90's OPS+ with solid defense - 2-4 WAR player. Very useful. This year and his 2019 season are 140 OPS+ superstar level 8 WAR. So a 5 year deal (I figure he will be chasing that) would have a range of $15 to $30 mil per year (2 WAR worth $15-20 mil, 8 WAR worth a heck of a lot more). Bet the Jays really wish he had gone for the 3 year deal I read they floated this past offseason while he is very happy he bet on a 1 year. $15 mil for 5 is $75 mil, $30 is $150. That would cover ages 31-35 - so the last 2 years are super-risky. So what do you do if you are the Jays or someone else debating signing him? A nice problem, but it is a debate worth having. If he keeps this up all year the $150 over 5 I see as a baseline for him, which is higher than I see the Jays going. $100 over 5 I could see the Jays going for, but no further.

Semien is going to be the single most interesting personnel decision that this front office has had to make.

And from Semien's perspective, the calculus will be interesting as well. If he continues to perform at something like his 2019/2021 level, his agent will rightfully argue that in 2 of the past 3 seasons, Semien was one of the very best players in the game. Off-season shoppers for 2022 will see that the shortstop aisle is pretty damn full, even with Lindor gone: Story, Seager, Correa, Baez, Semien. And the bargain bin of potentially useful old guys includes Crawford, Rojas and Simmons. So in any other year, someone might be bold about betting on a 31-year old shortstop with a checkered past. But this shortstop glut figures to change all that.

What will the Jays do? What can Semien reasonably expect by way of offers?

Hmmm ... is there a scenario where we swap Semien before the trade deadline to another contender for pitching (presuming Springer is back and would replace Semien’s offensive contributions?)

What's the batting order once Springer returns? Hard to justify moving anyone, but you can't bat Springer 5th.

There was a dichotomy between MLBTR.s and FG's valuations of Semien this past off-season. Tim Dierke's at MLBTR had him 15th on his list, Craig Edwards at FG had him 4th, behind only Realmuto, Springer and Bauer.

The batting order is a pleasant problem. Springer was promised that he would hit leadoff, so I'd keep Bichette, Guerrero Jr and Hernandez where they are and hit Semien 5th. When Kirk returns, it will be a devastating lineup.

Semien's too hot to move down so it should be Bo for now at least.

Springer
Semien
Guerrero
Teoscar
Bichette
Grichuk
Gurriel/Tellez
Biggio/Espinal/Panik
Jansen/McGuire


But I imagine semien will cool off as usual and Bo will heat up hopefully and eventually they swap back.

The only potential very good bats that are injured long term are Springer and Kirk. Add Biggio.

We have a decent chance of making the playoffs. If healthy our lineup is very strong. If missing 1 or 2 it is still strong.

Pitching is the unknown. G Cole will be hard to beat. Pitchers in the other divisions may look better than they are due to being in weaker divisions.

So we have a shot at going to the WS. Playoffs are short series, so a hot team can beat a better team. TB will fight tooth and nail.

This team will be good soon and should get better.

Moreno could also be an option at C/DH/bench bat in the second half, although 2022 is a more realistic timeframe for him.

I'd debate going...
Springer, Semien, Bo, Vlad, Hernandez, Grichuk, Gurriel or Tellez, Jansen/McGuire/Kirk, Biggio or Panik/Espinal. Biggio basically starting the lineup over again while the catcher slot trying to finish driving in runs.

Alternate: Semien, Bo, Vlad, Hernandez, Springer, Grichuk, Gurriel or Tellez, Jansen/McGuire/Kirk, Biggio or Panik/Espinal

You can see the odd platoon I set up there - Gurriel/Tellez as a LF/DH platoon with Hernandez in LF/RF depending and Grichuk in RF/CF. When Tellez isn't playing then one of Grichuk, Hernandez, Springer, or Gurriel is DHing - early on Springer, but once he is at 100% then Gurriel would be there most often.

This is a very good potential problem to have. Other teams fear the Jays as is, picture if Kirk, Springer, and to a lesser degree Biggio come back healthy what that does to the lineup 1-9. Where is the weakness?

Not a shock - AJ Cole on the IL retroactive to May 30th. Jeremy Beasley recalled. Figured there had to be something wrong with him when he wasn't used in the past few games.

Springer is not likely back until maybe July (I'd assume the Jays will be extra cautious after the earlier fiasco) and who's hot/cold or injury will probably decide who plays - also I wouldn't be surprised some players (Gurriel/Biggio/Tellez) are used in trade packages.

No real point in selling low on guys who provide depth and are established in the clubhouse.
Out of contention sellers usually want prospects and/or payroll relief.
Who knows if all the outfielders will be healthy in a month.
When kirk is ready to come back, McGuire will have to be DFAed. You take what you can get here.
I think he's rebounded enough to have value. If he clears waivers, he's a free agent. 


It sure looked like something was wrong with Cole.
Didn't think it would be his neck.

I don't think they are going to move people up and down the lineup based on if they're hot or cold unless it is a months long thing. Look how long it took them to drop Semien and then he went back up when other options didn't work. Personal considerations are going to beat tactical considerations. Since they've been so patient with players like Bo and Gurriel I don't think they're going to yank Bo down the lineup even if Semien is a better hitter.. I would guess more incremental changes where players maybe shift a spot. I do think Springer will come back and be leadoff again.

They could move Semien to 5th, it's a better RBI spot, Guerrero is on base a lot.
I don't think he'd be too upset. It's a given that Grichuk would move down.

Btw, not expecting Panik to stick at 6th very long.

Cole was tagged for 5 runs in 5 innings today.
Boone got tossed in the 7th. Nelson walked Lowe and Diaz, both on 4 pitches.
Yankees are really not scoring much. 14th in the AL. Run differential of +4 after today.
 

There is no guarantee that Semien will produce more offence than Bo going forward. Just as Guerrero took a big step forward this year, Bo may have another gear. He just turned 23 and he's played only 129 games in the majors. Even if his performance doesn't improve substantially, his wRC+ of 117 this year is very solid.

Bo likely has the contact skills and such, but his main issue right now is how much he hacks. He won't be able to get that much higher in performance with a 6% walk rate and 25+% K rate. Not like Semien is elite in either, but he does walk a lot more than Bo and seems to do better in dragging out at bats longer. Anyway glad to have both and I don't think they bump Bo out of the number 2 unless he struggles. They seem to be going out of their way to coddle him.

How the lineup is set is secondary to who is in it. This has been shown in many studies over the years so if Semien hits 2nd or 5th it really makes no significant difference. By the time Springer is ready the "problem" might resolve itself if Semien goes back to his usual 90-99 OPS+ level vs his 2019/2021 level. At that lower level 6th is probably where he'd end up. At his current level 2nd would be ideal but 5th works if the team feels Bo would be upset over moving to 3rd/Vlad 4th/Teoscar 5th.

Got me thinking about how the Jays are doing vs the majors at each position using sOPS+ (Split OPS+ - basically vs all others at the same position)...

• CA: 23rd (74 sOPS+) Kirk 132, McGuire 80, Jansen 53
• 1B: #1 (177 sOPS - 2nd is 142 by Oakland) Vlad 198, Tellez 118, Gurriel 82, Panik -100 (0-3 at 1B)
• 2B: #1 (167 sOPS+ - 2nd is Pittsburgh 136) Panik 210, Semien 168, Biggio 44
• 3B: #22 (73 sOPS+) Biggio 97, Espinal 73, Panik 19, Vlad -100 (0 for 1)
• SS: #7 (125 sOPS+) Semien 130, Bo 124
• LF: #21 (87 sOPS+) Palacios 160, Gurriel 89, Hernandez 39
• CF: #13 (97 sOPS+) Grichuk 116, Davis 49
• RF: #7 (118 sOPS+) Grichuk 172, Hernandez 134, Palacios 31, Biggio 18
• DH: #14 (99 sOPS+) Vlad 185, Springer 132, Grichuk 112, Bichette 56, Tellez 37, 8 others with under 10 PA's.
• P: #29 (-100 sOPS+) 0 for 5 with a sac bunt and 3 K's. 7 teams with a 000/000/000 line including the Jays. Angels #1 of course with a 645 sOPS+ thanks mainly to Ohtani, other pitchers for them had 6 PA 2 H 1 BB 2 SO.
• PH: #29 (10 sOPS+) Tellez 133 has 11 PA, the other 22 PA split among 9 guys with Espinal having 6 of those (0 for 6) Kirk was 2-2 but the other 8 are 'hitting' 000/000/000
• Infield: #1 126 sOPS+ (thank you Vlad & Semien)
• Outfield: #12 101 sOPS+

No real surprises here. Top 10's at 1B/2B/SS/RF, middle of the pack (11-20) at CF/DH, and suck at CA/3B/LF/P/PH.

Wild game in KC. Donaldson and Sal Perez each homered twice, JD's 2nd tying the score 5-5, top of the 7th. Bottom of the inning, Dyson on 2nd one out, the LF is camped under a shallow fly. Rookie CF in only his 2nd MLB game cuts in front and drops the ball for an error, allowing Dyson to reach 3rd. He then picks up the ball and throws it over the 2nd baseman for another error, allowing Dyson to score. Royals win 6-5.

Been that kind of season for the Twins.

The Twins have a decent team in a weak division but they never seem to get past the first round of playoffs.
Adversity might be good for them.

From 2018-2021, Marcus Semien has hit .268/.343/.453 in 1928 PA during the regular season for an OPS+ of 119.  During that same time, he has 40 post-season PAs and slashed .371/.450/.571.  In other words, his OPS+ over his last 2000 PAs is over 120.  It is very important when you look at his line, to include his 2020 post-season (31 great PAs) with his 2020 regular season (236 modest ones).  If you do that, you can see that he has clearly taken a step forward from his age 24-26 production (OPS+ of 98, 99 and 97). 

I'd love to take this opportunity to remind everyone that I was very much in favour of the Simien signing, except that I also advocated signing David Dahl and retaining Billy McKinney.

So uh, never mind.

Geez, you'd think I'd be able to spell his name right by now, at least. Sorry Marcus.

I dunno. Maybe he was just thinking  about his ERA for the year.
Which is totally fine. There was 2 outs and he had 3 runs on the bases.
He had only 1 earned run in 16 games to that point.
Clearly, he signed with the Jays looking for a rebound season.

I see him more as a high leverage, middle innings guy.
Not really a closer.

He didn't say "there goes our season." He said "that could be our effing season right effing there."

Lots of things are said in the fog of war, heat of competiton. I loved it. It was exactly how I was feeling at the time as a fan.

Way too much was made of the Tampa Bay series. Guys didn't perform. The Rays were playing at an incredible level. So much was made of Montoyo's so called failures. Until that Sunday, Chatwood had one bad outing out of umpteen. There was simply nowhere to turn there.

Typically, I'm not really fan of extremely positive framing of stuff like Montoyo does in front of the media. I just kind of leave that out of the equation. John Gibbons for instance 2.0 was a great quote and affable and all that, so Charlie's not as fun.

But there's no question he's done a really good job for the Jays. The Pythag says the team has underachieved...I have a hard time accepting that.

Semien is proving that his power surge from 2019 was legit, despite the drop in last year's mini season.

Looking at the other numbers his .364babip seems unsustainable but it seems it might just be a result of a spike in his K% this year - I.e. he's swinging and missing on tough pitches instead of weakly grounding or popping out. This would also explain his career high exit velocity.

Interestingly the plate discipline numbers are pretty much at his career averages....so it looks like he's just plain swinging harder this year, and not shortening his swing just to make contact as much.


The projections all believe in him now as a 120-130wrc+ type very good hitter the rest of the season.

Has anyone heard this before? Can't help a deja vu feeling reading it. From Buster Olney at ESPN:

"One general manager repeatedly violated one of the unwritten rules for front office executives in the past decade. The accepted etiquette is that you should not initiate trade conversations with a peer whose team is playing terribly. Rather, you should wait for your colleague to call you, lest you come off like a vulture circling a dead carcass of a team.

But this one GM was unconcerned about such social convention, and if another club struggled in April and May, and appeared headed for a sell-off, he would be the first to text or call to ask about possible deals. In the eyes of some of his peers, he was kind of an ambulance chaser, to the degree that at least one head of baseball operations blocked his cell number.

"F--- that guy," he said to a friend."

Heh, he sounds like an owner of a fantasy league team:)

Yeah, I remember reading that concept before, where it felt like vultures circling and how it rubbed people the wrong way. I can't remember where, though, or who it was in reference to (if anyone specifically).

It's a delicate balance between keeping communication lines open so you can be the first in on an opportunity, and pissing someone off. Best way I can think to do that is to talk about your needs vs what they have, and to have that dialog continuously throughout the year, as opposed to it being transparently linked to a bad start.

I always thought the right way to GM would be to schedule a regular one call per month to discuss trades with every club.

Yeah, probably for the same reason I do - you want to be used to just talking, so the call/message itself doesn't convey meaning. It doesn't have an undertone of "We just lost 5 in a row and now the hyenas are closing in," it just means it's Taco Tuesday. It takes 2 sides to set that up, of course, The hope is the open conversation will lead to the other side being more open to reaching out in between if something comes up and they have a need. Alternately, that you'd have a decent idea of what's going on with the other side if you need to make some changes, or need to blow things up.

Goldstein wrote about this a short while ago. Lower level guys have been talking to each other, then reporting their conversations.

I don't know.  If someone keeps calling you about a player and you don't want to trade him you ask for a huge overpay and you don't budge from it.
If I'm selling, I'd want to get the best value, not feel like I'm dictating the schedule.

Maybe 5 weeks until trading starts to happen. Some pitchers not on the team now should get an opportunity (enough innings) to rise higher.

For example A Castro is impressing Montoyo. Mayza, Chatwood, AJ Cole, Carl Edwards, Bergen. Borucki and Merryweather need to get healthy. Dolis needs to reestablish himself while injured players are down.

Kay, Hatch, Zeuch, Pearson and Allgeyer need to earn their way back up.

"One general manager repeatedly violated one of the unwritten rules for front office executives in the past decade."

I think it is cute and so on the nose for baseball that even the executives have unwritten rules. Players are considered fungible assets, that can be bartered and manipulated at will in the name of smart business practices, but only when it is done in a manner and fashion that doesn't offend some executive's delicate sensibilities?

I think it is cute and so on the nose for baseball that even the executives have unwritten rules.

Dude, baseball has unwritten rules for the beer vendors.

Anyway, is this even Anthopoulos they were talking about? It actually sounds a lot more like Billy Beane to me. I thought the issue with Anthopoulos was the sheer volume of calls about possible trades, not the timing of those calls. Beane did a whole bunch of vulturing, according to Michael Lewis.

Don't think it was AA. He really didn't do trade deadline dealing until 2015.
I guess it's an analogy mathesond et al will get, but no GM wants their team thought of as draped over Jon Cleese's shoulder, at least until June rolls around.