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Wrapping up a five game road trip with two games in Miami.

George Springer has been activated from the IL and will be in the lineup tonight, hitting fifth and playing centre field.

At the beginning of this month, the Jays played and won two while the Marlins were in the midst of an eight game losing streak. They're coming off a six game road trip in which they scored 24 runs, which sounds normal enough, except that they scored 21 of them in two games. In the other four, they scored 2, 1, 0, and 0. Very much feast or famine with these guys.

The Jays saw Alcantara three weeks ago. Vlad Guerrero got to him for a three run homer, which was all Robbie Ray would need. They've never seen Trevor Rogers, the 23 year old southpaw who was Miami's first round pick in the 2017 draft. Rogers has arrived this season, performing like one of the best pitchers in the league and tossing his hat into the Rookie of the Year discussion. Rogers was the NL's Rookie-of-the-Month for April, and I've got a nice lovely cuttlefish if you can name the last Blue Jays pitcher to be named the Rookie-of-the Month.

The Marlins are somewhat concerned about the number of innings Rogers has pitched already this season, after throwing just 29.2 last season. His career high is 136.1, thrown between two levels in 2019. He would normally have been scheduled to start Sunday against the Cubs, but he's already at 81.2 IP this season so the team decided to give him a couple of extra days.


Tue 22 June - Stripling (2-4, 4.64) vs Alcantara (4-6, 3.09)
Wed 23 June - Some Guy (?-?, ?.??) vs Rogers (7-3, 1.87)
Jays at Marlins, June 22-23 | 129 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#400664) #
Good on Springer for being a team player and being willing to hit 5th so not to disrupt things too much.

Great trivia question. Gustavo Chacin came to my mind, and Ricky Romero was an incorrect guess.

The Marlins are a better team than their record indicates, but a split would still be a bit disappointing.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#400665) #
I never would have guessed who the Jays' last Rookie of the month pitcher was in a million years.

My initial thought was Jesse Litsch.

A hint would be that this pitcher was actually on a roster for the recent Baseball Americas Olympic qualifying tournament, although it doesn't appear that he appeared in a game AFAICT.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#400667) #
First guess was Chacin. Second guess was Chris Michalak. Third guess was right! I thought of him because of that one game where he punched out like 11 Phillies against a left-heavy lineup, and it turns out that wasn't even in the month he won the award.
Kasi - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#400668) #
Apparently Manoah was suspended 5 games for throwing at a batter and Montoyo is suspended for tonights game. Interesting to see that come down from the league.
scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#400669) #
So we get their #1 pitcher and their best pitcher. Meh.

For what it's worth the odds makers are putting the Jays as the underdog in the first game, so probably in the second game as well.

Corey Dickerson has joined Brian Anderson on the IL.
So, that's probably good for Stripling.
Starling Marte is the guy to watch for in their lineup.
Adam Duvall is up to 16 HR.
Jon Berti will be playing third.

The Jays have done very well in interleague so far and, frankly, they don't lose much without the DH.

They'll let Alcantara go to 100 pitches but they probably won't push Rogers.

The Rays have DFA Wyatt Mathisen to make room for Franco.

scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#400670) #
Manoah will appeal. Ridiculous that Montoyo gets a suspension. He wasn't even thrown out of that game. Was he?
He called for plucking a bad hitter following 2 home runs from the bench?

What does a 5 games suspension mean for a starter? One start pushed out one day?
I though a suspension was automatic following an eviction.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#400671) #
Springer and Jacob Barnes activated.

Tellez and Davis optioned.
scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#400674) #
Outrighted Jared Hoying to make room on the 40 roster for Barnes.
Beasley was optioned yesterday to make room for Barnes on the active roster.

Tellez was optioned to make room for Springer and Davis was optioned directly from the restricted list.
I guess he was away too long to stay on the paternity list.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#400675) #
Glad to see Espinal stick around, the roster needs a 3B and Panik ain’t it.

There are a few bad teams getting little from 1B that would be wise to offer a fungible bullpen arm for Tellez and see what he can do with regular playing time.
scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#400676) #
I don' t think this front office wants a regular DH.
It seems they'd prefer to use a super-utility and rotate the DH.

I guess Panik will be the pinch hitter in this series.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#400677) #
Talking catchers the other day. From BBB:
wRC+ vs LHP
Career/ This year:
Kirk 53/87
Jansen 56/-27
McGuire 8/-19

wRC+ vs RHP
Career/This year
Kirk 180/140
Jansen 83/85
McGuire 120/127

Thoughts: Kirk very much SSS. He'll probably be good vs both sides, since he didn't have big splits in the minors.

McGuire vs LHP is SSS, and best to keep it that way, but he's the good side of a platoon.

Then there's Danny. He's the weakest of the 3 vs RHP's, but he's been shockingly bad vs lefties. Unless the Jays love his defense or hate Kirk's, Danny should the one Bison-bound when everyone is healthy.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#400678) #
All 3 defensive metrics agree with the eye test that Espinal is a plus defender at 3rd, and both Panik and Biggio are minus.

Never been on the "get rid of Panik" train until now. With Biggio on the roster and Smith's emergence in AAA, Panik seems very redundant.
jerjapan - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#400679) #
Gotta think Smith is a trade chip right now, so the org might not make any kind of move with the guys on the left side of the IF.  If he's still a Jay after the deadline, he looks like an ideal call up. 

I just read a Kaitlyn McGrath article at the Athletic in which she noted that Jon Axford was a commentator on Sportsnet this year.  I never saw him, but I do think that would be a first if he makes the team - broadcaster to player. 
Magpie - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#400681) #
Jon Axford was a commentator on Sportsnet this year.

Caught him a couple of times. He wasn't bad for a rookie, had some useful insights about pitching. Might be too soft-spoken for TV.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#400682) #
Nate Pearson with his 3rd right groin injury this year.

Recurring injuries seem to be a thing for the jays.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#400683) #
Pearson injured again. Groin issue.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#400685) #
I don' t think this front office wants a regular DH.

I'm expecting it to be Gurriel half the time, while the other outfielders rotate through the rest of the time. Vlad will probably get some games there as well, with Gurriel or Biggio filling in at 1b.
Kasi - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#400686) #
I would guess Bichette will get a few turns as well. I do agree with Springer, Teoscar, Vlad and Bichette this team has no room for a guy like Tellez. Nice story but too many holes in his swing.
scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#400687) #
Vernon Wells in the pre-game show saying he didn't care if he was hitting 3rd, 4th, 5th  or whatever.

That was the thing that I hated, Wells with an 85 OPS+ hitting third and playing center when Rios would have been better there.

He did have some good years and 2 gold gloves, but not very consistent.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#400688) #
From the "it was only a matter of time" department, Derek Fisher has been DFA'd by the Brewers.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#400689) #
Bichette-Guerrero-Teoscar-Springer is a nice quartet of hitters to start off the top of the fourth.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#400690) #
Rest of Season combined projections from fangraphs:

CF Springer 132wrc+, 4.5war650
1B Guerrero 148wrc+, 4.9war650
SS Bichette 120wrc+, 4.6war650
2B Semien 118wrc+, 4.4war650
LF Teoscar 115wrc+, 2.4war650
DH A.Kirk 113wrc+, 3.2war650
3B Biggio 106wrc+, 3.0war650
RF Grichuk 106wrc+, 2.0war650
C Jansen 94wrc+, 3.0war650

UT Tellez 109wrc+, 1.4war650
OF Gurriel 103wrc+, 1.8war650
IF Panik 89wrc+, 0.9war650
C McGuire 79wrc+, 2.0war650

UT Smith 76wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Davis 79wrc+, 1.4war650
IF Espinal 78wrc+, 1.4war650
C Adams 71wrc+, 0.0war650

UT Taylor 81wrc+, 0.0war650*
OF Martin 78wrc+, 0.0war650*
IF Groshans 76wrc+, 0.0war650*
C Moreno 100wrc+, 0.0war650*

* = steamer only
finch - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#400691) #
Nate Pearson is the new Dustin McGowen.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#400692) #
McGuire hit a single off his leg.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#400693) #
Oh, that was a hit? I thought it was called strike three and he reached on the ensuing wild pitch.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#400694) #
McGuire swung and made squibby contact. The ball rolled about 5 feet in foul territory with Alfaro, the Marlins catcher, staring at the ball figuring it would continue its little journey away from the foul line. Instead, it decided to roll back towards the foul line and Alfaro did not pick it up until it was on the line, and thus a fair ball.

The replay seemed to show the ball hitting McGuire's leg before hitting the ground, thus making it a foul ball, but neither broadcaster made any such observation, so I could have just been seeing things. And the Blue Jays did not seem to offer any objection.

Kasi - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#400695) #
Nice to see Stripling be so good after fixing his delivery. If he can keep doing this it kinda is like adding another Ray to the rotation. He will be a high strikeout, high home run style pitcher. At the end of the day his stuff isn't super elite but he's good enough to get good results if he doesn't miss his spots. If he does well its often going to go over the fence.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#400696) #
Nice job, Lourdes!
Magpie - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#400697) #
Stripling's last six starts: 2-1, 2.29, 35.1 IP, 36K, 9BB, 21H
Magpie - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#400698) #
Whoa! First man ever caught stealing with Jordan Romano pitching!
uglyone - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#400700) #
Sick play by Reese.

And thats the way you need your bullpen to look as often as not.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#400701) #
Nice one run win. That throw by Reese was possibly a game saver.

This is how I thought this series would go - Miami's got good pitching, and the Jays are seeing their two best starters.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#400702) #
That was a very good win. Excellent pitching, timely hitting and generally good defense, Vlad's error notwithstanding.
scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#400703) #
Really nice pitching. Maybe that sticky stuff was just messing them up. ;)

Puny attendance. Feels like the Florida League.

Looks like Marte slowed down dramatically in his pop up slide.
McGuire has not looked like someone you want to drop off your roster.
Second outright would make him a free agent, if someone doesn't pick him up.

No contribution from Springer yet, but the bottom of the lineup looked dangerous.

It will be Ray vs Rogers tomorrow, btw.
No info on Matz yet, strangely.

scottt - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#400704) #
Looking at the Boston-Tampa game.

Rays started with an opener who only got 2 outs. Then Yarbrough for only 2 innings 5 earned runs. Thompson, McHugh, Wisler, Feyereisen and that's only the 8th. Maybe they're already missing Glasnow.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#400705) #
Maybe [the Rays are] already missing Glasnow.
br> Maybe. But Wander Franco is 2-3 with a walk, one of the two hits being a three run homer. I feel surprisingly little sympathy for them.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#400706) #
Wander Franco 2-3 with a BB, 2B and a 3 run HR to tie the game 5-5.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#400707) #
Franco could have a Vlad-like impact on the Rays. Scary thought.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 22 2021 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#400708) #
The Royals are clinging to a 6-5 lead in the ninth inning against the Yankees. Gerrit Cole was solid, but the bullpen suffered a meltdown.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#400711) #
The Marlins ain’t exactly a big draw, but they are still playing under limited capacity (25%) into July. The box office was sold out of the lower level seats and there wasn’t much left upstairs either. A solid 25%+ were Jays fans.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:37 AM EDT (#400712) #
The Rays used another pitcher and lost in the 11th.

scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#400713) #
Yankees lost and it's Duffy (ERA 1.94) vs King (ERA 4.08).
Garrett Richards vs Rich Hill at the Trop.

25% attendance in Florida? Weird. It looked like less than 10% of seats were occupied.
Jays are at full attendance starting Thursday. Marlins will be at full attendance July 5.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#400714) #
Miami-Dade was a hot spot even a month ago. No longer. Hence the limit and the upcoming full attendance.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#400715) #
Just rewatched it. There are 7 people in the first 4 rows of seats behind home plate.

I don't doubt that they have hotspots in Florida, but I didn't think they had measures in place.
The governor passed a law there to prevent cruise ships from "discriminating"  against non-vaccinated people.

Thomas - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#400716) #
It looked like Marte slowed down for a split second about 2/3 of the way to second, but nevertheless, that was an excellent throw by Reese to nail him. That inning looks very different if Marte was on second with none out.

Also, Stripling has essentially been the staff's best pitcher for the last month. He's been really impressive since his turnaround.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#400717) #
He's been really impressive since his turnaround.

It's been an early career Halladay-like transformation, writ small, of course. Terrible and then excellent, the seeming result of a deliberate mechanical change.

scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#400718) #
It's great and hopefully it last. They have him for another year. He's pretty cheap.
I didn't have much hopes for that trade.

It's a weird change. His best pitch has always been the curve and his slider was getting hammered.
Now he blows 92mph heaters right down the pipe and the hitters take them.
They look pretty straight too. Apparently they don't pick him his release point.
And his velo is up to 96mph now.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#400719) #
I'm puzzled. Broadcast said Reese was 2 for 11 throwing out baserunners coming into the game. But both sites stats now show 9 SB, 5 CS., so he was 4 for 13, no? Or do the stats give catchers credit if the pitcher throws behind the runner and the runner tries to advance?
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#400720) #
The front office deserves credit for identifying and acquiring three undervalued starters in the last year: Ray, Matz and Stripling. Those three have added a surprising amount of stability to the rotation.
Cracka - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#400721) #
The stats sites also count pickoff plays as caught stealing for the catcher. McGuire gets credit for a Robbie Ray pickoff (May 11th) and Steven Matz pickoff (June 12th). There must be another data set somewhere that looks at only the "throwing stats" for catchers, which seems more accurate than including pickoffs.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#400722) #
greenfrog, you're about the only other poster here who checks out the FG chats. You remember KG's comment a few weeks ago that it happens all the time that orgs think "we can fix this guy".

Yet how often are guys actually fixed? From the outside looking in, it seems Walkers reputation is well deserved.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#400723) #
Or fixing them. Certainly some of that going on.

I thought Scherzer was going to drop his pants there.
Really got the best of Girardi.

Braves, Phillies and Nats all 4 games of the Mets.
All under .500.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#400724) #
Thanks Cracka, I guess the sites just use boxscores. Although I'm curious - how did you find those two instances?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#400725) #
Glad to see Stripling turn things around this season. Early on he looked awful (stats and eye test) but he's starting to resemble the pitcher he was with the Dodgers lately, and that's a huge development for the Jays.
Cracka - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#400726) #
I used BBRef and went to McGuire's page. Then I went to Game Logs and looked at his 2021 Fielding Game Logs at a Catcher (2nd table), which shows the dates of each of the 5 CS that he has been credited with. Then I opened each boxscore and did a search for "Caught Stealing" in the play-by-play to get the actual sequence. For example, from May 11th: "Freeman Caught Stealing (PO) 2B (P-1B-2B)". There's probably a simpler way - I've just recently gotten into exploring the site to find interesting nuggets of data like this that aren't obvious elsewhere.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#400727) #
The Mets are likely happy with their haul for Matz as well. Reid Foley and Diaz are currently in their bullpen, and Winckowski was traded for Lee, a speedy outfielder who debuted this season. Their GM can even brag about picking up 18 years of control for 1 measly season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#400728) #
With all the injuries to their starting rotation, and the team holding down first place in the NL East, I imagine the Mets would be more than happy to trade those players back to the Jays for Matz.

It's true that Reid-Foley has been decent out of the bullpen in a small sample for the Mets. Diaz (5.68 BB/9 IP) and Lee (-0.3 WAR) haven't done much yet at the major-league level.
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#400729) #
The front office deserves credit for identifying and acquiring three undervalued starters in the last year: Ray, Matz and Stripling. Those three have added a surprising amount of stability to the rotation.

It's hard to imagine how much worse off the Jays would be if they hadn't got career turn arounds from specifically Ray and Matz.

The Jays have close to an AL-best offense, a breakout MVP season from Vlad, a MVP-lite return to form in Semien, had the best bullpen in the AL for April and have been rolling five starters giving constant quality starts for at least the last 4 weeks and are still only a game above .500.

The offseason hope of "we are going to go cheap on pitching and try to bash opponents to death" has definitely been exposed.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#400730) #
he's starting to resemble the pitcher he was with the Dodgers lately, and that's a huge development for the Jays.

I never saw Stripling pitch as a Dodger, but I take your point. It is interesting to look solely at his BB9 and SO9 numbers from year to year. After his rookie year, he took a similar step, at least in terms of results, as the one he took this year. He managed to improve both his BB9 and SO9 before sliding into the bad version of himself the Jays traded for. He seems to have now restored himself to his best self, so even while a minor regression should be forthcoming, this is not entirely uncharted territory for him.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#400731) #
I see things somewhat differently. The Jays have been without Springer and Kirk for virtually the entire season. The bullpen, which was performing very well in the early going, has been hit hard by injuries (Merryweather, Borucki, Cole, Phelps, Hatch, Murphy). Pearson has been stalled by injuries as well.

Despite this, the team has the fourth-best run differential in the AL (+44) -- better than Boston (+38) and New York (-1) and not far behind Tampa (+69).

In other words, the team has remained competitive despite missing a number of key players.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#400732) #
The team's offensive numbers are inflated by their stay in Dunedin. For example, the team's wRC+ on the road is 104, which is 5th or 6th best in the AL. I think the version of the lineup that has played to date has been merely average to above average offensively - but with Springer and Kirk back, and the recent return to form of Biggio, it should be near league leading - that's the upside for the rest of the year. Similarly, the Dunedin stay inflated some of the starters numbers. I think the starting pitching has been wildly better than you could reasonably have expected before the year began and Walker should get a huge portion of that credit.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#400733) #
At 71 games the Jays are basically a 500 team. 81 games is the half way part of the season.

There could be 3 95+ win teams this year in the AL. If so the Jays may just squeak in.

The sticky stuff is going to play a part in the final standings.

Also the injury factor is very big.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#400734) #
greenfrog- Dwight Smith Jr released by the Orioles.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#400735) #
Thanks for letting me know...?
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#400738) #
The bullpen, which was performing very well in the early going, has been hit hard by injuries (Merryweather, Borucki, Cole, Phelps, Hatch, Murphy).

I think the only guys from the bullpen that were expected to be big contributors that got hurt are Borucki and Phelps.

Merryweather is like Mr. Snuffleupagus in that he's missing so often that it's hard to prove if he's real.

The Jays thought so little of AJ Cole that they non-tendered him last year and brought him back as a ST invite, only to keep him on the taxi squad until May 8th when they had to activate him or lose him.

Hatch is being groomed as a starter and wasn't being considered as a reliever when he got hurt.

Patrick Murphy is only on the 40-man as a vestige of Rule 5 protection and was terrible two years ago pre-COVID after an umpire considered his delivery a balk and had to rebuild his mechanics.

Even Borucki has a Merryweather-like injury history and can't necessarily be counted on as available.

And David Phelps is a steady middle reliever, but he's just a guy.

If a team argues that the difference between a .500 team and a contender is losing Borucki and Phelps to the IL, they probably were never really in the running.

I'd argue the most devastating loss to the bullpen was losing Kirby Yates two outings into ST, which shifts everyone on your already shaky bullpen depth chart up one more level of leverage and competence.

Another disappointment is the regression of Rafael Dolis. It looked for a while last year that the Jays had got a cheap steal of a setup man from Japan last year, but now he's just another untrustworthy guy.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#400739) #
greenfrogs confused, but polite, answer stems from the O's letting Smith jr. walk at seasons end last year. The Reds signed him to a minor league deal and it was already posted here a few days ago the Reds released him.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#400740) #
The difference between a .500 team and the contenders is that the contenders have played 6-9 games more against Baltimore and Detroit and fewer games against themselves.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#400741) #
While the pen had few 'name' players, basically Yates the only one who could be expected to be really good, there were a lot of guys who might be good - free agents/waiver wire: Phelps, Castro, Cole, Chatwood, Liriano, Payamps, Milone, and the crowd of guys who were here already (including returned rule 5 Jiménez, and guys like Romano, Thornton, Mayza, Dolis, Kay, Zeuch, Borucki, Tice, Merryweather, and on and on and on). So 8 acquisitions, 10 who were signed here already, plus more. Yet it still wasn't enough. There is a limit to how many you can have I suspect. By the time you hit reliever 12 I suspect most teams are down to guys who really shouldn't be used.

Pre-season the plan I think was Yates/Phelps/Romano/Chatwood/Dolis/Borucki/Merryweather and 2 more from the crowd. Instead opening day was Romano/Dolis/Borucki/Chatwood/Phelps /Merryweather/Mayza/Thornton/Payamps. Merryweather was a pleasant surprise as he took over the closer role and ran with it until getting hurt. Of those 9 we have 4 on the IL now plus Yates. That means the Jays are using their 10th-14th guys in the pen now, at best. Remember, Edwards Jr is IL, Milone too while Murphy just came off it. Yeah, no one of those guys were counted on beyond Yates but the Jays had to know the injury risk for him was high. Still, being on your 14th and beyond reliever in pre-season depth is not a good situation.

Relievers used in playoff years split by era...
  • 2020: 24, 10 with 10+ IP
  • 2015: 22, 14 with 10+ IP 2016: 25, 14 with 10+ IP
  • 1991: 14,  8 with 10+ IP 1992: 14,  9 with 10+ IP 1993: 13, 7 with 10+ IP
  • 1985: 12,  6 with 10+ IP 1989: 15, 10 with 10+ IP
Yeah, baseball has changed a LOT since the old days.
No question the Jays now need to plan on needing 20+ relievers a season and to have 10 who get a fair amount of usage. No matter how many you sign you'll need more. Thus the critical need to build a TON into your farm and to be willing to cut guys so you have 40 man slots for more.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#400742) #
I remember greenfrog advocating heavily for Dwight Smith compared to Grichuk with his contract.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#400743) #
I'll point out that the Marlins pitchers are terrible hitters, even for pitchers.

Alantara .071 .188 .107
Rogers .077 .111 .188
Lopez .037 .037 .074
Poteet .100 .100 .100
Curtis 0 0 0

10 other pitchers with at least one AB.

Here's one team built to play with a DH.

Ray is a career .145 .158 .183 hitter.
Bit of an edge as long as Ray doesn't walk Rogers.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#400744) #
On pitchers hitting, was it here or elsewhere I saw that this year's batters slash lines vs deGrom are almost the same as overall pitchers slash lines?

Also, when are we getting the rookie of the month answer, or did I miss that too?

pooks137 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#400745) #
The difference between a .500 team and the contenders is that the contenders have played 6-9 games more against Baltimore and Detroit and fewer games against themselves.

The Tampa Bay Rays are currently in the midst of a seven game losing streak and remain 12 games above .500.

The second best team in the AL East this morning is 11 games better at its nadir than the Jays presently.

I've seen the strength of schedule ratings and the run differential scores.

But even with so many things breaking right (MVP breakout from Vlad, All-Star rebound from Semien, Ryu remaining healthy, Matz and Ray pitching like front/middle of the rotation starters, Romano becoming an elite backend bullpen arm, Vlad playing above average D at 1B, Grichuk and Teoscar continuing to hit at career levels), this team looks a lot more like an 8th seed team that snuck into the playoffs last fall than a team that could realistically beat all Top 3 teams in the AL East.

Kasi - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#400746) #
They're a young team that has has a lot of injuries. If you were expecting them to come out and win 95 this year you either expected everything to go right or had some serious rose colored glasses. No other team in the majors lost their closer and their top hitter (Springer) for the entire season so far. Yet if those were around they probably are hanging around 7-10 wins above .500 and are right in the race. So yes we have had some breakout performances but that has been tempered by injuries and in some cases luck (Jays are one of the worst teams in the league in situational stats such as clutch hitting) If the injuries normalize and the bad luck stats bounce back to normal I think we can have a strong second half and end in that 85-90 win range.

Speaking of our starters here is a cool article on Ray this year. Seems like he is the anti-spin guy so far.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#400747) #
when are we getting the rookie of the month answer, or did I miss that too?

Sorry! It was Scott Richmond.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#400749) #
thank you Magpie.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#400750) #
Huh. Scott Richmond - he pitched in an indy league in 2019, not well - 4.83 ERA in 110 IP, 2.5 BB/9 7.5 K/9, but he did pitch at age 39 and was on Team Canada this year. At this point I'd say, sign him to a AAA or AA deal as we just need arms that work down there by now I suspect.
Jonny German - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#400752) #
A 29-year-old outfielder in his 8th season continuing to hit at his unimpressive career levels, who coulda seen that coming?? ?
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#400753) #
The Tigers keep coming up in the same sentence as Baltimore, as if the Jays are predestined to use them as target practice.....Detroit is 22-18 in their last 40 games after a terrible start. They have good young starting pitching, and Jonathan Schoop (yeah...Jonathan Schoop) could be the player of the month in June. So they will certainly not be an easy task.
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#400755) #
A 29-year-old outfielder in his 8th season continuing to hit at his unimpressive career levels, who coulda seen that coming?? ?

It's unfortunate that Randal Grichuk has returned to his usual self in June after having a Kevin Pillar-like April.

But Grichuk putting up an .839 OPS in April and an .804 OPS in May while playing passable CF defense can only be considered to be "better than hoped" while your 150 million dollar CF doesn't take the field until June 23rd, even if Grichuk would inevitably put up an .594 OPS in June.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#400756) #
Randal Grichuk has returned to his usual self in June

I would say what he's done in June (OPS of .594) is not his usual self. The guy had a slump (6-45) for 11 games. Which happens to everyone.
Jonny German - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#400757) #
Splitting his season into smaller samples doesn't change the sum of his contributions. And his contributions, in the time when the team needed him to be an everyday player because of Springer’s absence were…. exactly in line with expectations.

If one was trying to spin a narrative of how smart the front office is, one would talk about how they did not do as many fans suggested they should and salary-dump Grichuk the day after signing Springer.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#400758) #
Grichuk is projected to be about a 1.5 WAR player by the end of the season with a ~105 wRC+. If you told me that before the season began, I would have said that sounds about right for him. If he's used strictly as a 4th outfielder, then he'll be fine in that role, but unfortunately he's probably always going to be a near everyday player on this team given his contract even when everyone is healthy.
Kasi - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#400759) #
He has made real changes to his profile in that he has shown how he can reduce his K rate. He's always going to be streaky but if he has some good runs in him and ends closer to 115 than 105 it will be a very good year for him. He is what he is which is a solid OF. Nothing exciting but he can do 1.5+ WAR on a good year for him.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#400760) #
It also made, and makes, sense to keep Grichuk because its not clear that he's the 4th OF on this team. Right now he's looking like the 3rd best OF on this team.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#400761) #
Another trivia question which came from a broadcast of a game pitched by Robbie Ray a few weeks ago : Ray's streak of innings without issuing a walk ended at 30. What Blue Jay pitcher holds the team record for most innings pitched without giving up a walk at 38 ?
Kasi - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#400762) #
Yeah he's definitely better right now than Gurriel. Especially defensively. His d numbers would likely take an uptick if he played at a corner instead of CF. Anyway Gurriel this year has no split between L/R and Grichuk is massively better against LHP (same pretty much holds for career) so I'd lean to making sure Grichuk plays against LHP while Gurriel is in there more against RHP.
Kasi - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#400763) #
And looking at the lineup today that is what is happening. Back to a LHP there today and Grichuk is in and Gurriel is sitting.

One thing I do wonder is it is best leaving Teoscar in right and moving Grichuk to the open spot or better moving Teoscar? I'd lean towards leaving Teoscar in right since him just getting any value defensively this year is great and I don't want to break that.
Polite Nate - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#400764) #
Rough day at work for the first base ump today.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#400765) #
By the 3rd one they didn't even bother going to replay, just overturn.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#400766) #
And in fact, the Marlins have hit 22 HRs at home, 46 on the road. Although, like the Jays, they've played far more games on the road (41) than at home (31).
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#400767) #
Im with Nigel - keeping grichuk was a no-brainer given that it was never clear that he was necessarily the #4OF.

Having quality league average bats with defensive value on the bench is not really just a luxury - its a necessity to be a good team.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#400768) #
Ideally we see kids like Martin, Groshans, Moreno coming up to help fill the gaps in OF, 3B, C next year...or maybe even this year.
scottt - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#400769) #
Last 40 Tigers games.

2 Wins against the Cards
1-3 against the Angels
3 wins against the Royals
3 losses against the White Sox
2-1 against the Mariners
1-3 against the White Sox (10-10) in June so far
1-1 against the Brewers
3 wins against the Yankees
1-3 against Cleveland
1-2 against the Royals
3 wins against the Mariners
1-2 against the Cubs
3 wins against the Royals

They swept the Yankees, the Mariners and the Royals twice. 
Their bad results from before include 1-2 against Boston and 3 losses to the Yankees.
They are 14th in run scored in the AL. 13th in HR, 11th in OBP.
10th in run allowed, 11th in ERA.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#400770) #
32-year-old Starling Marte is having a terrific year.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#400771) #
32-year-old Starling Marte is having a terrific year.

I wonder who he's going to be playing for a month from now. Yankees?
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#400772) #
If they wanted to, the Jays could trade for Marte, install him in center field for the rest of the year, move Springer to right field (until 2022), and play Teoscar in LF.

He's probably not the ideal fit, because he would likely be an expensive rental in terms of prospects and he would be yet another right-handed bat, but he would lengthen the lineup and force Grichuk/Gurriel to the bench.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#400773) #
QO for both Semien and Ray at the end of the season? Could happen.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#400774) #
Interestingly, Marte has a reverse split. He hits RHP better than he does LHP (this year he has a wRC+ of 166 against RHP and 149 against LHP). The Jays could bat him 6th:

Guerrero Jr.

Then look for a quality left-handed bat (perhaps a DH or LF) to further strengthen what would already be an excellent lineup.
ayjackson - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#400775) #
What's a QO these days? $17m?

I'd take Ray at that number for a year.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#400776) #
What's a QO these days? $17m?

It was $18.9 last year, Gausman and Stroman accepted it.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#400777) #
I’m gonna guess Josh Towers. Others I could see are Romero, Jansen or Marcum.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#400778) #
Nice pen.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#400779) #
Pure guess, but Jimmy Key had a bunch of low walk seasons
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#400780) #
Liam Hendriks?
Magpie - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#400781) #
I’m gonna guess Josh Towers.

Towers has the lowest career BB/9 of any Jay, but I don't think it's him. Halladay also had a bunch of low walk seasons, but David Wells never walked anybody during his second tour (when he looked like your surly, grumpy neighbour with several large dogs.)
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#400782) #
This is our chance.

Marlins down.

Nothing but BAL (awful), SEA (mediocre), and TB (chance to make up ground) until the allstar break.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#400783) #
6gms back already feels way better than 8.5

Especially with the top teams starting to show their holes.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#400784) #
Casey Janssen? For some reason I want to say it’s a reliever.
earlweaverfan - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#400785) #
Uglyone, is Groshans really the best hope for 3B? Could it be Kevin Smith (whom Atkins has been touting as a potential call-up this year?)

Groshan’s doing pretty well at NH this year, but offensively, you could argue that Martin, Taylor, Lopez, Moreno and even Capra might all have better batting years on that team.

Meanwhile, they are playing him quite a bit more at SS than 3B there.

I am wondering whether Groshans mightn’t be a prime trade piece to help get us pitching…
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#400786) #
Last guess, then I’m out. Mark Buehrle?
Kasi - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#400787) #
It's good to have options. Who knows if Smith or Groshans will be better. Or Kirk or Moreno. Or whatever. Pedigree sure matters and minor league performance matters but some players just do better in the majors. It's good to keep options open. Nice thing is if even some of these step up our team's lineup could be insanely loaded next year. You could have like an 8/9 of Kirk/Moreno and Martin/Groshans or whatever.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 23 2021 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#400788) #
I'm a kevinsmithfan, earlweaverfan, and im happy to hear atkins has mentioned him. Ive mentioned that i would have called him up already....even though im not sure i see him as a longterm solution.
Spifficus - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#400789) #
Key was my first guess, followed by Wells and Halladay. I didn't really consider any relievers (except Quantrill for some reason) - it would take a half year to do it at modern workloads vs a starter not even needing a month. Heck, 3 clear starts and fortuitous placement on the bookends could do it.
Spifficus - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#400790) #
Slight correction on the trivia question - looks like it's 38 and 2/3s innings, not 38.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#400791) #
Sorry, I just heard this during a game and just remembered the 38. There were a lot of good guesses but the correct answer is Jesse Litsch, the short, chunky guy who didn't really look like a pitcher and it was always referenced that he was once a batboy for the Tampa Rays.
scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 05:49 AM EDT (#400792) #
What I mostly remember of Litsch is a game in the Rogers Center in which he was pitching against the Yankees and the ump would stop calling strikes after 2.

Doesn't feel like much offense, but against the top Marlins pitchers and in Miami, apparently that's as much as anyone gets. Would take guys like Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna to hit homeruns regularly here. Too bad they didn't have any pitching back then.

Richards--without sticky stuff--had 4 walks and couldn't complete the second inning.
Duffy lasted only 2 innings--0 runs 4 Ks, hurt maybe?Then the Yanks and Royals had a save blowing contest it seems.
Royals had the lead. Hernandez blew it so it became a 3-3 tie. Royals took the lead against Britton! Brentz blew it. Chapman blew it! Holland blew it for the walk off.

scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#400794) #
QO over the years:

2012: 13.3M
2013: 14.1
2014: 15.3
2015: 15.8
2016: 17.2
2017: 17.4
2018: 17.9
2019: 17.8
2020: 18.9

It's set at the average of the top 125 salaries. My guess is that it's headed down a bit, but I don't feel like computing it.
If the formula stays the same and it even exists.

Chuck - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#400795) #
Whither Julian?

Stripling's last start pushed his mug onto the Jays' BRef page, squeezing out Merryweather (who worked hard to get his face posted with a full 4 innings of work). One assumes that Payamps' days there are numbered and that he will eventually be replaced by Springer. The hitting machine known as Reese McGuire is threatening inclusion but, but...

What do we make of McGuire? Never hit in AAA, was dreadful beyond words in 2020, and yet his "career" (half a season's worth of AB) OPS+ is 100. When the walking wounded return and the catcher crunch comes, McGuire will be sought by other teams. He no longer seems like the waiver wire material we had dismissed him as after last season.

Petey Baseball - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#400797) #
I am fine with a McGuire/Jansen platoon hitting 9th. It would be great if Jansen could be a little more adept at controlling the running game, but he blocks enough balls and works well enough with the pitching staff that you can tolerate his god awful offensive production. Especially now with this lineup now fully healthy. Even if they are buyers at the trade deadline, I'd be shocked if they added a catcher mid season.

I watched the Chapman implosion last night. His last 10 appearances, he has a ERA of 8. Spider tack, much?
92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#400798) #
Is there an actual catcher crunch? From this corner it appears that Riley Adams is nowhere near ready (12K in 26PA, yikes) and that McGuire has done more than enough to stick around, especially because he's an LHB. Last we heard Kirk is playing extended spring games and doing well, and that Jansen was running the other day and he wasn't 100%. Whoever is ready first joins the team, but once Kirk is back Jansen should be sent to AAA to focus on his hitting and making consistently better contact.

There's definitely no current issue carrying 5 catchers on the 40-man roster when it's littered with so much fringe talent.
uglyone - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#400799) #
Chuck - McGuire's numbers imo always had the bones of a good hitter right through the minors. I.e. solid contact numbers and good bb/k rates. What held his numbers down overall was the complete lack of power (iso in the .060 range mpst of his milb career)....but then at 22 in AA he finally saw a nice power boost (.217) and put up a great line though there were stadium effects there. He couldnt match that at AAA but he still managed to keep his power at a much higher level than previous (~.120). And he's managed to do even better than that in MLB with a .185iso which is nice solid power.

This year hes obviously babipping a bit hot (.377) and he wont keep it up but i would not be surprised to see him keep up numbers aroujd his MLB totals so far:

5.0bb%/20.3k%, .301babip, .259avg, .300obp, .185iso, 95wrc+

Though i woukd guess that iso would come down a bit - but still that leaves him with a very useful hitting line for a good defensive catcher.

Note: this is mostly based on keeping him away from lefties, who he has shown zero ability to hit in MLB.

If a good defensive catcher can hit enough to keep his wrc+ anywherr near 90 then he's probably starting quality.

In our case we seem to have two very good defensive catchers who should both be able to hit at that level and who form a natural platoon. It might not actually be a weak spot unless Jansen has been fatally exploited.

Im far from convinced that Kirk is a guy we want catching much, and his bat plays anywhere.

And Moreno's bat may play anywhere too, and it cant be ignored that theyve given him a look at 3B.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#400800) #
I miss the home run sculpture and the backstop aquariums at Marlins Park.

Miami had the coolest stadium in MLB. Not anymore? Derek Jeter is personally responsible for this.

pooks137 - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#400802) #
There were a lot of good guesses but the correct answer is Jesse Litsch, the short, chunky guy who didn't really look like a pitcher and it was always referenced that he was once a batboy for the Tampa Rays

I remember the meme about Jesse Litsch in the late aughts Jays blogging scene that died out referred to Litsch as

Pink. Round. Efficient.

I think it was Joanne from Hum and Chuck, which still exists in some form, if I'm not mistaken.

scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#400803) #
I think you want to keep McGuire from seeing any lefties, not just because he can't hit them but to keep them from messing his timing.

Kirk's bat might play anywhere but his glove does not play anywhere but catcher and DH.

I would want Moreno to get a chance, maybe as early as next year and not as the backup.
He'd have to be there day 1 and forget the extra year of control, but he's probably a guy who can be extended easily.
Just need to have a long hard look at AAA this year.

They'd like a better left bat to replace Panik. It doesn't have to be a full-time guy.
There's not a lot of room anywhere on the field for a bench guy to play much.

Diego Castillo's hat was ejected yesterday.
Not Castillo. Just his hat. It was "discolored".

A building collapsed near Miami right after the Jays left.

scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#400804) #
They just moved the sculpture outside the park. Took over 2 years.
92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#400805) #
When Marlins Park's roof is closed it this Jays fan appreciate the Dome. Just a total dud of a ballpark.
Spifficus - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#400809) #
No worries, Island Boy. I simply meant that to imply that I finally found it after getting the trivia bug and being unable to let it be without finding who. If I remember my searches from last night, Key, Wells, Halladay and Buehrle all had competitive 30+ streaks (Halladay a few times). Alexander was another idea, as was Quantrill, and I had to check Towers, Bush, Osuna, and even Stroman, Estrada and Happ. Heck, I was even checking Brad Wolfe to see if there was some funky clustering going on.

Until I found Litch, I was about ready to throw out sarcastic guesses of Clancy, Guzman or Leiter and call it a night.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#400821) #
Heh, Juan Guzman would have been very sarcastic !
GabrielSyme - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#400824) #
That's a good summary of McGuire's offensive progression, ugly. I'd add that his one terrible year at the MLB level was last year, which was a very weird year for everyone, so I'd tend to discount it a little. Even if his offensive level is more in the ~80 wRC+ range, he's a strong backup catcher. At a 90 wRC+, he'd probably get a starting job somewhere.

The other thing is that he's the strong side of a platoon, which imho, makes him more useful as a "starter" since most teams give ~25% of playing time to a backup anyway, and you can get a little more production from a right-handed backup with McGuire starting. Of course, catcher doesn't always allow for a strict platoon. Hitting left isn't as big an advantage as a backup, especially with the way Montoyo uses the backup (getaway games, day games after night), although it's still a plus.

I think called on the Jays to carry three catchers in order to keep McGuire, so I was half right - wrong that we'd lose him if he was put on waivers; right that he's a useful player.

Long-term, there is clearly no room for Jansen. Kirk and Moreno should both be better hitters, and McGuire would form a useful left-handed hitting backup with either of them. I've been comparatively optimistic about Jansen's bat over the past few years, but whether he's been heroically unlucky or just plain bad, his time is running out with the Jays. If McGuire isn't traded this season, I would like to see Moreno, Kirk and McGuire next year, with Kirk getting time at DH as well as the occasional start behind the plate.
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