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Two rainouts, four losses, not an inspiring night on the farm. Hitting was in short supply, the Jays affiliates had 22 hits across four games. Starting pitchers were the stars of the show, they fill all three star positions. In the absence of great performances, we look at prospect pitchers and their 2021 performances.

Lehigh Valley at Buffalo - postponed, DH Friday

Portland 4 New Hampshire 2 - game 1

Portland at New Hampshire - game 2, postponed

Vancouver 3 Everett 7

Dunedin 3 Palm Beach 4

FCL Tigers 10 FCL Blue Jays 7

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

Elvis Luciano had an excellent start, four shutout innings with five K's. He threw 64 pitches so the Jays are being careful with him. New Hampshire took a 2-1 lead to the seventh and last inning. But Jon Harris gave up a three run home run and that was the game.

The Fisher Cats had just four hits. Samad Taylor and Vinny Capra had doubles.

Rafael Lantigua hit a three run home run in the third inning to give Vancouver the lead. But it was all downhill from there. Lantigua had two of the C's six hits.

Luis Quinones again had a problem with walks. He walked six in 3.2 innings. He was also charged with four runs.

Sem Robberse pitched five no-hit innings with eight K's. It was his best start of the season.

The Jays had only three hits. Steward Berroa and Addison Barger each had a double. Berroa drove in two with his hit.

The FCL Jays outhit the Tigers 9-7, but their pitchers walked 10. The Jays had nine hitters with one hit each. The starting pitcher was Dahian Santos, an 18 year old from Venezuela. He threw five shutout innings, two hits with six K's.

There has been some talk on Da Box recently regarding the lack of performance among the Jays pitching prospects this season. Let's have a closer look. As usual I will grade each pitcher with an Up, Down or Stay as-is, as regards their prospect status.

Nate Pearson has been disappointing. The combination of injuries and poor performances means Pearson has likely lost his number one prospect status. In AAA his performance has been mixed, his WHIP is 1.176, but you expect more from your number one prospect. Down.

Alek Manoah has graduated to the Majors and is holding his own. There is still development required but so far so good and he is ahead of schedule. So thats an Up for me.

Simeon Woods Richardson has had some mixed performances this season. He did leave the team to spend time with the US Olympic team. He hasn't dominated but he hasn't been all bad either. He is striking out almost 14 per nine innings but he is walking too many, five per nine. I would say he is Staying as-is with his relative rank.

Anthony Kay has shown flashes with the Jays, as in on Wednesday. He has also been poor from time to time. Kay was never a top prospect so from that side he has been good, but compared to his 2020, I see a Stay as is.

Adam Kloffenstein has had more bad starts than good ones. His WRA is 6.52 and his WHIP is almost two. He is young and has time but if pressed, his status has slipped. Down.

Eric Pardinho hasn't pitched. His return from Tommy John has been delayed. You have to say Down.

Patrick Murphy has lived up to his often injured reputation. He has pitched generally well in the Majors so I will say Stay as is.

Joey Murray has been injured. Down.

TJ Zeuch has been unable to establish his major league credentials and he hasn't improved his strikeout game so I will say Down.

Thomas Hatch has been injured and is returning. He has pitched reasonably well for Buffalo. Could be down but I will give him a mulligan as he seems to be getting better, Stay as-is.

Maximo Castillo has made eight starts with a 5.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.525. He is striking out seven per nine innings. Castillo was never a top prospect so his performance might be as expected but his prospects of starting in the majors have dimmed. Down for me.

CJ Van Eyk has been disappointing for a second round pick. The assignment to Vancouver was not too much of a stretch but he has had some big blow ups in the first innings of games. He does have ten K's per nine, but he is allowing too many baserunners. Down.

Yosver Zulueta, injured in game one. Gone for the season. Down.

Nick Frasso made two starts with a zero ERA but has thrown only five innings. Is the injury a one off or a sign? Lets say Stay as-is for now with a question mark.

Trent Palmer started the season hurt and he hasn't pitched well since he returned. A 7.15 ERA stinks. Down.

Sem Robberse started with some rough starts but has thrown a couple of really good ones recently. Could be an Up but we need a few more good ones so I will say Stay as is.

Nick Allgeyer started the season as the Jays hottest minor league pitcher. He has faded since his promotion and non appearance in the majors. He is the bottom of the prospects so I will say Stay as-is.

That's seventeen pitchers. There are probably others who could be listed who have pitched well such as Zach Logue, Naswell Paulino and Luis Quinones. But of the 17, I rank just Manoah as an Up, seven as Stay as-is and nine as Down. That's not good. The Jays need some step-ups in the second half of the season.

Three Stars

Third Star - Dahian Santos

Second Star - Elvis Luciano

First Star - Sem Robberse


"Sem"thing Good | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#401412) #
Thanks Gerry. Very good analysis.
hypobole - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#401414) #
Good analysis, Gerry. It's pretty bleak on the pitching side. Arm injuries will happen, but the seeming lack of progress by so many of the healthy guys is disturbing.
ramone - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#401418) #
This was in Fangraphs today on Van Eyk:

"His landing spot is very inconsistent though, and that seems to affect his ability to throw strikes. Sometimes he lands in a clean fielding position; on other occasions his left foot lands so awkwardly that he practically falls off the mound toward the first base dugout"
92-93 - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#401419) #
Prospect hype and some luck can play with perception.

Manoah 29.2ip 3.34era 5.32fip 4.47xfip
Kay 30ip 4.50era 4.53fip 3.49xfip

Eventually Manoah will have to be shutdown, perhaps they could shift him to the bullpen for the last 6 weeks or so of the season.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#401420) #
You should throw Luciano somewhere in there.

John Northey - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#401421) #
An odd one is Kyle Johnston- an  ERA of 2.01 despite 4.7 BB/9 vs 6.9 K/9.  Very odd.  His 0.4 HR/9 and 7.8 H/9 are why it is working out for him.  And this is over 40 1/3 IP so not a small sample.  Not sure how the Jays got him - just 3 years of pro experience all with Washington before 2021.  Probably was released by them - he was just a 6th round pick and walked over 4 per 9 IP every season so far.  But his HR/9 has also been 0.6 or less each year, suggesting he is good at keeping the ball in the park.  His H/9 has been 8.0 or less every year too.  0 unearned runs allowed this year so he isn't hiding his results.  Strange is after his first 6 games, all as a starter with a sub 3 ERA he was moved to the pen where he gets 2-3 IP each time.  As a reliever he has a 0.64 ERA in 14 IP 7 BB 12 SO but just 1 run allowed.  Given he has been doing full innings you can't say he has been saved by other relievers.  If he could just find the strike zone a bit more often he might be something useful for more than minor league innings.
bpoz - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#401423) #
K Johnston acquired in the D Hudson trade.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#401424) #
Kyle Johnston was the return for Daniel Hudson.
bpoz - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#401425) #
Rather than using pitcher's names lets try styles and stats. Maybe I can do both.

High bb/9 but almost no hits. Probably lots of Ks. Mitch Williams CWS?

Zeuch is the opposite. Gives up ground balls or should be. He is usually in the strike zone. Low Ks, Ok BBs but the HRs are getting worse.

I really don't know.

Paul D - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#401428) #
SWR has been named to the USA Olympic team, after being on the qualifying team. I generally think letting your non 40 man roster guys compete in international competitions is a good thing, so I'm supportive.
GabrielSyme - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#401429) #
Elvis Luciano, Zach Logue and Luis Quinones should be considered among the starting prospects.

Luciano missed a couple weeks, and they've been slow to build him back up, but he's had very respectable results. Given the uncertainty with Luciano, I'd say that's an up arrow.

Zach Logue is obviously an up arrow, pitching himself into a being a genuine prospect.

Quinones is striking out 15/9 but walking more than a batter an inning. Lots of Ks and BBs is what he was doing in 2019, so staying the same - although both the walks and Ks have increased, so he might be more interesting as a prospect.

I think that makes the overall picture look a little better - but not a lot.
85bluejay - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#401430) #
The pitching prospect situation along with Ray and Matz being free agents and the seeming deline in Ryu makes it imperative IMO that the Jays spend their prospect capitol trying to acquire quality mid/top rotation pitchers with control beyond this year - German Marquez tops the list, maybe Luis Castillo becomes available and Cleveland is probably looking to augment it's outfield.
Hodgie - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#401431) #
It is easy to forget since he has been around a while already, but Luciano is only 7 months older than SWR.
hypobole - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#401432) #
There are 2 teams tied with the best record in baseball.

How did they build their starting staffs and how many prospects did they give up to do so?

Free agency is a wonderful thing if you make correct decisions.
Gerry - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#401433) #
I should have mentioned that the sample I used for the above list was drawn from the Batters Box Top 30 and the MLB Pipeline top 30.

That's why Logue, etc. were not included.
greenfrog - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#401450) #
Brown is 3/3 with a triple so far tonight.

Kirk has homered in the early going. Logue has allowed some baserunners but has yet to allow any runs.
scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#401458) #
Brown should have the wheels to turn doubles into triples.
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