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And then the All-Star Break....

I don't have much new to say about the Rays. I'm still not sure what they are anyway. I wonder if they're just some weird beast still living off the fat they had wisely stored up for a rainy day (in their case, during that 16-1 stretch with which they ended the month of May..)

Besides, I seem to be suffering a post-injection side-effect. I got home from Cloverdale Mall yesterday, not suspecting anything to be amiss. Then I attempted to scratch my nose with my left hand. Which was when I noticed an unusual sensation in my upper left arm. Rather as if someone had said "hold still" and then whacked me in the bicep with all possible force. With a baseball bat, or a lead pipe.

But I seem to be fine as long as I hold it perfectly still. Which I shall try to do.


Fri July 9 - Manoah (2-0, 2.70) vs McClanahan (3-3, 4.18)
Sat July 10 - Stripling (3-4, 4.06) vs Yarbrough (5-3, 4.34)
Sun JUly 11 - Ray (6-4, 3.36) vs Hill (6-3, 3.65)

Jays at Rays, July 9-11 | 165 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#402054) #
It seems that yesterday's rain out will allow them to skip Matz which could be a good thing.

I imagine that all the GMs are focused on the draft now, so maybe no more trades until we near the deadline.

bpoz - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#402055) #
Your second shot Magpie? I heard the 2nd one may give soreness and fever. 1 day and you are good.
Magpie - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#402056) #
Your second shot Magpie?

Yep, had the Astra-Zeneca back in April. Didn't feel anything, not even the needle going in, nothing afterwards. I was warned though that this can happen with the Moderna. Ain't no thing.
Chuck - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#402057) #
The upside of the pain is that you know for sure you didn't get a useless saline jab, unlike a handful of poor bastards.
Magpie - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#402058) #
That thought actually crossed my mind back in April, when I didn't even feel the needle go in. Were they pretending? Was it a magic trick? Didn't feel it go in this time either, but I feel it now!
Nigel - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#402059) #
The whole "playing McGuire everyday, even against tough LH's" thing is going to get old really quickly.
hypobole - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#402060) #
Both Jansen and McGuire have been almost exactly equally pathetic vs lefties.
GabrielSyme - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#402061) #
I'm sure McGuire is playing because he's caught Manoah thus far and the club likes the results enough to give up the platoon advantage.

Can't say it's the wrong approach.
Magpie - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#402062) #
This video, with players on both teams mic'd up, is a whole lot of fun.
Alex Obal - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#402063) #
With the two lefties at the bottom it's like they're double daring the Rays to stick with Sugar Shane three times through. He has rarely gone deep into games. In his very limited experience he's done pretty well, but...
Chuck - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#402064) #
it's like they're double daring the Rays

Or worse yet, a triple dog dare!

Nigel - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#402065) #
I understand that Jansen and McGuire have both been terrible against LHP but I don't really see that as a likely prognosticator of future performance against LHP. I think this is a thing above and beyond Manoah, because McGuire was scheduled to be the starter last night against a LHP.
Chuck - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#402066) #
This video, with players on both teams mic'd up

With the amount of fun Teoscar has, getting paid is just a bonus.

hypobole - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#402067) #
Mcguire actually makes more sense against the Rays than he would have against the O's. He's the only catcher we have that has had any success against base stealers and Tampa does like to run.
Magpie - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#402068) #
I think this is a thing above and beyond Manoah, because McGuire was scheduled to be the starter last night against a LHP.

Manoah was supposed to start last night, too. McGuire has caught every one of his innings so far. I do think they need to get him with Jansen at some point.
krose - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#402070) #
Robo umps please!
krose - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#402071) #
One of these teams is better than the other. Jays hitting is neutralized by good pitching and by good defence. I think the Jays could be a better team if Espinal was given a run at third and Semien and Bo flipped spots. Tonight’s outfield is my favourite.
krose - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#402072) #
Looks like Vladdy and Springer are waving the white flag. Rays look good!
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#402073) #
Couldn't agree more. It appears Biggio is postitonless, and with a stacked offense already, I'd rather have Espinal's excellent defense at third and speed on the basepaths.
Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#402074) #
I wouldn’t say they’ve given up but there is a clear disconnect on stats between run differential and how this team actually performs. Jays have disproportionately gotten their runs on bad pitchers and been really bad against good ones especially relievers. Which is why it annoys me when blogs or people post run differential as proof of this team with anything. They are going to have to hit good pitchers if they want to get on a run.
uglyone - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#402075) #
Biggio is a better hitter than gurriel or grichuk. Put him in LF.
lexomatic - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#402076) #
Is there a rain delay or something?  Or did sportsnet screw up the radio on the app? The "game" feed is sports talk from CBS. Anyway. I guess I'll have to listen to the tv broadcast 
Nope the game is on tv but there's no audio Feed whatsoever.
krose - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#402077) #
This Jays team is just unaware too much of the time. Seems like a mismatch.
Polite Nate - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#402078) #
Tough outing from Manoah. Not great command, but still a ton of strikeouts. But he seemed to tire out there and after 10-11 straight innings pitched against the Rays they finally started to square him up. Zunino hit that ball real hard, but Biggio's gotta make that play at third. I really don't like him over there, I'm skeptical of Espinal as an every day player though.

Hard disagree on the doom and gloom re: the offence though. All teams have bad days, and nobody looks good on their bad days -- by definition! Run differential absolutely matters, and cherry picking the bad performances is just selection bias. Every team performs poorly against good pitchers -- that's why they are good pitchers.  Heck, just last week the Jays scored 3 against McLanahan in 5.1 innings and went on to win the game.
Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#402079) #
Nah it’s more than that. In late and close games Jays are only better than Detroit and Pittsburgh. Sure everyone is bad against better pitchers it’s just the Jays are worse against that than nearly anyone else in the league. Athletic had a good article on it but Jays have struggled badly in those situations. It’s just easier to blame the bullpen for all the results of the team.
Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#402080) #
I'm not against replacing Montoyo now. Not because of the bullpen but because it seems rather clear he's not getting the most out of this team. For me the decision on when to keep or not keep him is when his pluses (development mostly) came up short to how he maximized getting the most out of this team on a day to day basis. Some of that is bullpen and other tactical moves, but I think improvement needs to be made on this teams approach. Both on mental discipline on defense as well as the awful hitting approach when games are tight.
Polite Nate - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#402081) #
To my mind, if you lose a game 9-7 in the 12th or whatever, you can complain about whoever didn't hit in  those high leverage spots in the 10th or 11th, or you can ask your pitching why the heck you were in a 7-7 tie to begin with.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#402082) #
What Polite Nate said. Jays won’t be bottom 3 once the 2nd half of season is done.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#402083) #
“ Biggio is a better hitter than gurriel or grichuk. Put him in LF.”

Do you already have a new provocative or outlandish statement planned to follow up with or do you just come up with them on the fly?

Out of every possible way to say that you want Biggio in LF, you choose to be provocative and aggressive with finality. I’m sure you have some select stats ready to cut/paste which support one side of the statement only.
Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#402084) #
Sure polite but at the end of the day wins matter. You can be like Toronto and complain about the bullpen/pitching or you can be like Boston and actually win the games.

I do agree with dalimon that the Jays can't continue to be this bad, but I've seen no sign of them improving.
uglyone - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#402085) #
"Do you already have a new provocative or outlandish statement planned to follow up with or do you just come up with them on the fly?"

Maybe the suggestion of yanking our 6th best hitter out of the lineup was the outlandish and provocative one?

scottt - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#402086) #
Manoah seems to have a different set of pitches every outing.
Tonight he had a sweeping slider, a sinker and a change.
One right handed batter and he hit him.
Saucedo was fine, but this all left lineup wasn't a good fit for Castro.
Certainly not after Manoah threw so many sliders.
They do have better options against lefties, but maybe saving some for tomorrow makes sense.

They did get some chances against the starter and got him out of there early, but Kittredge was brutal against the Jays right bats. Swing at the first pitch, take if it's 0-2 unless the pitch is inside. Same pattern against every hitter and no adjustment.

Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#402087) #
Heck if you compare Toronto to Tampa and Boston Toronto is second in runs scored (10 behind Boston, 10 ahead of Tampa) and 2nd in runs allowed (10 behind Tampa, 25-30 ahead of Boston) Obviously worse after this game but still all close. Heck if you even go to relievers Jays and Rays ER from relievers are about even. (Boston is 20 runs ahead).

This team is just to this point in the year very situationally bad. Not just pitching but everywhere. The Jays hitters get those runs when up or down big. Similarly the bullpen is crappy when things are close but when down or up big they can throw out those zeros well. Throw in defense too as they make mistakes a lot.

Now I don't know if any of this is terribly predictive. Generally this stuff isn't but I'm not against the argument that Montoyo and the managing here isn't getting the best out of this team. I have just never seen a team in recent memory be this much "less than the sum of their parts".

You just list the stats of many players on this team and list the stats of players on Boston and Tampa and you'd have no idea why the Jays are basically .500 and those teams are 15-20 games above.
Nigel - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#402088) #
I’ve always felt that Montoyo was the development/caretaker manager until the team was ready to win and nothing I’ve seen this year changes my views on this. But the manager isn’t the reason they are where they are. I think it’s a sprinkling of all of; bad luck, a young team, a bad bullpen, a few of the “older” players aren’t exactly heady (Gurriel, Hernandez), an imbalanced lineup and probably one of two other things.
Kasi - Friday, July 09 2021 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#402089) #
Yeah I think that's reasonable but I'm wondering what would kick start the team most. Sure a big move, but I don't think this team has shown they would really benefit from it. I think the right coaching change might spark some sort of positive change, especially if it comes with continuing to raise the floor of the team.
scottt - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#402090) #
Would a coaching change make any difference?
Guerrero is having an MVP year.
Bichette is on track to match or exceed his father's best year.
Hernandez is an All-Star and having a solid year.
Semien is the best free agent any team can hope to sign.

Having more production out of the catcher's spot would help a lot. That will come.
A more balanced lineup would probably help too.
The Rays are certainly abusing the Jays hitters with sliders. That might come as well.

It mostly comes down to Better pitching. Many of the moves Atkins has made are for more than this year.

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#402091) #
I think we’re all over thinking this. Here are the three biggest things that can impact this team:

Ryu being an ace consistently

Springer being healthy and performing under pressure situations

Semien performing under pressure situations

I’ve seen Semien swing out of his shoes too many times in important at bats, perhaps because it is a contract year.

Closer in the bullpen.
bpoz - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#402092) #
Not much is changing in the standings. Oakland at the moment is within reach for 5 teams. The 5th is LAA who is 4.5 games back.

I expect Oakland to go on one of their long winning streaks. Some of the 5 chasing Oakland will also go on a big winning streak.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#402093) #
You just list the stats of many players on this team and list the stats of players on Boston and Tampa and you'd have no idea why the Jays are basically .500 and those teams are 15-20 games above.

Yeah. That's why this year has been so frustrating. If you look at the names on the rosters, and the overall stats they've generated,  it's kind of crazy the Jays are fighting to stay over .500 and the other two teams are so far ahead. It's just been a lot of 'unclutch' in certain situations that have led to a lot of one and two run losses and underforming their pythagorean record.

I don't know if it speaks to some kind of actual flaw in the team, or if it's just one of those random baseball things that's really nothing more than chance.
bpoz - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#402094) #
The FO is definitely interested in winning more games. Build a team that actually wins 95 games in the future.

We lost the series to Seattle, won the series against the Rays and split with Baltimore. Not good but not really time to worry.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#402096) #
Games played - Boston 89, Tampa 88, Toronto 85.

Boston has wins by 9, 9, and 14 runs, (April 5th, May 15th, June 1st) for a +32 run differential in those 3 games.

Tampa has wins by 8, 9, and 10 runs, (May 13th, May 20th, June 26th) for a +27 run differential in those 3 games.

Toronto has wins by 14, 14, and 10 runs, (April 10th, June 13th, July 2nd) for a +38 run differential in those 3 games.

Arbitrarily excluding the top 3 largest-margin victories of the season, the overall run differentials are trimmed down to:

Boston +35
Tampa +57
Toronto +35
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#402097) #
That's why this year has been so frustrating.

Maybe I should be feeling more frustrated, but in the last Blue Jays full season they lost 95 games. They still feel a little ahead-of-schedule to me.

So I think I'll repeat the same wise, wise words (not my own, alas) that I offered up last September when everyone was fretting about whether young Vlad would ever live up to expectations:

Patience, grasshopper. Patience.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#402099) #
Leaside, that is an interesting analysis and the overall pecking order from it is how I would view the three teams, sans George Springer for 90% of first half.
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#402100) #
I don't know how a front office can punt on a season where this many key players are playing so well.

This team seems so perfectly positioned to trade away some of their what I like to call "false core" - a bunch of guys in their mid to late 20s who aren't really young and just kinda good - for another impact player or two, all while having a couple of what I consider "real core" kids ready to be called up to full any gaps, like Kirk, Moreno, Nate.

I mean I didn't expect the team to actually contend until that real core all came up and was pushing into their primes - but with vlad's giant leap forward, expensive guys like Springer and Ryu likely to still be very good this year but maybe not going forward, AND huge returns from vet gambles like Ray and Semien.....I just can't see how an FO can choose to let the season pass as rebuilding one.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#402106) #
Well, in all likelihood other teams are asking for what you might call the real core - Kirk, Martin, Pearson, Groshans. Are you that willing?
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#402107) #
I don't know who Pittsburgh is asking for. But I know who I'd be asking for if I was running the team. And I bet you'd be asking for the same guys.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#402110) #
Yeah not really sure who this false core they can trade away for help is.

If you mean Semien and Ray well they're pretty important right now for the Jays continuing to do well this year. I don't think there is a way for the Jays to trade them and get better.

If you mean Gurriel and Grichuk well those 2 have minimal trade value and likely won't get you what you want.

Teoscar is likely the only late 20s good player who could get you something really solid, but do you want to trade him? I guess you could trade Biggio if you consider him part of this false core as well.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#402112) #
Yeah, it's not too hard to say "go get this" but what are you willing to give up? Make an offer.

And I'll say. "Interesting. Let me think about it." (Because if you haven't included someone like Martin, I've got three weeks to see if I can get a better offer from someone else.)
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#402113) #

Grichuk 29
Teoscar 28
Gurriel 27
Jansen 26
Biggio 26
Mcguire 26
Espinal 26
(Tellez 26)

And yeah I'd be willing to give up one piece of the real future core to get a top end signed pitcher.
hypobole - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#402114) #
And the top of the 1st ends in very 2021 Blue Jays fashion.
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#402115) #
I mean I made an offer in the other thread.

What was it again? Something like:

Pearson, Gurriel, Jansen


Berrios, Cruz

I might have added another Jay in there I'm not sure.
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#402116) #
I think maybe I had Smith in there too.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#402117) #
If that's your offer, my answer stands. I'll think about it.
Paul D - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#402118) #
I'm since more and more about Montoyo. It does seem like this team has far too many plays like the top of the first today or that ridiculous triple play against the Yankees. Is this just what happens with young teams?
hypobole - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#402120) #
Is this just what happens with young teams?

Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#402121) #
Is this just what happens with young teams?

You betcha.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#402122) #
When those grizzled old baseball lifers spit some tobacco juice on your shoes and growl something like "They've gotta learn how to win" - that's the kind of thing they're talking about.

It's especially frustrating because there's just not much you can do about it, except wait. Wait for young people to grow up a little more. You can't will it into happening. You keep teaching. And waiting. And hoping. And crying. And waiting. And hoping. (I might have a song there...)
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#402123) #
"If that's your offer, my answer stands. I'll think about it."

Deadlines have a way of not letting you think about it.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#402124) #
I got three weeks. If I'm the Twins, I'd be thinking I might be able to get more if I trade those two separately anyway.
Polite Nate - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#402125) #
I'd be very surprised to see Jansen traded, just a gut feeling based on how the FO talks about him, you really get the sense that they value him a lot more than he looks from the outside. Seems a little too key to the clubhouse to trade away, certainly midseason.

I think building something around Pearson for Berrios makes a lot of sense though. Biggest issue for me is if I'm Minnesota I'd be very tempted to treat this season as a bit of a fluke, and I'd be aspiring to bounce back to contention next year, and if I believe that then I don't want to trade Berrios now unless I truly get a king's ransom for it.

My priority right now would be to dump McGuire somewhere for any kind of reliever, throw in cash or take on salary if need be, and get Kirk back in the lineup. I don't think McGuire has a lot of trade value, but after seeing what we got for Joe Panik then I'll believe in anything.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#402126) #
Also despite that being an impressive list say pre season right now all of those guys are down. So you’re basically selling low on a lot of players and this you’re not going to get as much as you would on them. Now if your vet is that those guys are going to continue to drop then sure I can understand getting anything out of Pearson while you can. But bundling a bunch of underperforming guys is not going to get you that good a player.
hypobole - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#402127) #
Rarely complain about Montoyo, but my one peeve is him not playing Espinal enough.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#402128) #
And if I'm the Twins, I say - why do I want Jansen? Guy can barely hit the Medndoza Line. And Pearson can never make it to the mound. But if you swap in Kirk or Moreno instead of Jansen, we might have something. I might even let you hang on to Smith.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#402129) #
I think there is trades to be made around trading an underperformer. See both Ray and Stripling. But are you really going to get a team to take four underperformers or 3 and a helium prospect? That seems to me to be a lot more unlikely.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#402130) #
It’s odd but Striplings changes have basically turned him into a right handed Ray. Same high strikeouts, high pitch usage, high home run rate. Not that that’s a bad thing but some games the home run luck bites you and you give up three instead of the usual one.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#402131) #
Or I just tune out TB games as being no fun and wait until the next series.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#402132) #
I think the Jays division chances are on the line this weekend. If they get swept I don’t think they can win it anymore. They’ll only have a chance at the wild card. (Yes there is a bit of a reverse jinx here and I hope they prove me wrong but I just don’t see this team coming back against two teams with 9-11 game lead on them)
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#402133) #
The Jays look very bad right now and we should remember that a team is never as bad as they look at their worst. Trades will likely come, but better play from the present roster is necessary for this team to continue. Bo and Vlad will continue to grow and improve, we hope. The rest of the starters are what they are. Semien and Springer are keepers along with Bo and Vlad. I would trade any of the rest of the starters for the right deal. Two would be at the top of that list because he has the most value.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#402134) #
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#402135) #
Grichuk is of the least value and should be gone once Dickerson is ready.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#402136) #
But Grichuk is better than Dickerson.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#402137) #
And kinda sad that McGuire in a slump still is way better than Jansen.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#402138) #
Wanted to look up the stats to compare Dickerson and Grichuk but can’t get in and stay into Fangraphs. Grichuk has been horrid for weeks. He doesn’t appear able to adjust and the results of his ABs have become predictable. For me, Dickerson would just have to be better in a part time role against RH pitchers to be more helpful than Grichuk.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#402139) #
They're a platoon. You want Dickerson against RH and Grichuk against LH. Grichuk is 10 WRC+ worse against his favored matchup than Dickerson is but Dickerson is 10+ WRC+ worse against his non favored matchup. Aka Grichuk is a more tenable every day player especially because of his ability to play CF and Dickerson is a better platoon bat. Overall Dickerson is a better hitter career wise but a worse defender so I'm kinda with Magpie here in that Grichuk is likely slightly better.
uglyone - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#402140) #
Or we could use our best DH, Kirk.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#402141) #
You're putting a lot of faith in a guy with 600 minor league innings and 60 MLB innings to be a top DH. Heck look at how the consensus number one prospect in baseball is doing here. Of course I agree he could be better than our catchers, that is not hard but I am not convinced that any runs the Jays would gain with the offense wouldn't just be lost by being a worse catcher.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#402142) #
Dickerson used to be a better hitter than Grichuk. Time flies.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#402143) #
Dickerson's job, when he gets active, will be to replace Jonathan Davis on the roster and Rowdy Tellez at the plate.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#402147) #
You are probably correct about Dickersons role when he gets back Mags, but at this point I don’t think Grichuk is any more valuable than Davis. And, I’m not so sure he will turn his offence around any time soon.
StephenT - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#402151) #
Funny how the Rays fans were groaning in sync with Romano's deep knee squats in the 8th inning today.
The Rays' radio announcers said they also did that once earlier this year.
I wouldn't be surprised if Jays fans start doing it too (maybe in August).

Dan Shulman has missed calling some road games for the first time this season.
He attended an event in Nova Scotia (in person) Friday night:
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#402153) #
Pre Allstar game:
Dickerson: .260 .321 .377 .699
Grichuk: .259 .289 .314 .554 (and descending)
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#402154) #
greenfrog - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#402156) #
"Is this just what happens with young teams?"

Are the Jays a young team? They have a few young players, but much of the team is pretty experienced: Semien, Springer, Teoscar, Grichuk, Gurriel Jr., Davis, Ryu, Ray, Matz, Dolis, Cimber, Richards.

And a lot of the "young" players are closer to their mid- or late-20s than their early 20s: Biggio, Jansen, McGuire, Espinal, Romano, Mayza, Castro, Kay, Saucedo, Barnes.

Perhaps the team only seems young because the truly young players, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, are the face of the franchise.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#402157) #
Well, I can see there's a whole lot of cherry-picking going on, although I can't be sure where it starts. We obviously have all of Dickerson's season and we're obviously throwing on to the fire the two months when Grichuk was hitting way, way better than Dickerson. They don't support your point, they must go.
Magpie - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#402158) #
I mean, please. As badly as Grichuk's hit for the last month, he's still having a better season than Dickerson. He had a better season last year. You really think this is the first time he's had a slump? That this is the new normal? You really think Dickerson's going to turn back the clock to when he was Grichuk's age?

Well, I don't.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#402159) #
Cherry-picking! Well… Yah! But data is data and it tells us something. The comparison of their hitting lines for the most recent 1/2 year favours Dickerson. Grichuk appears to have one swing. It puts the bat head out first and causes most batted balls to bounce to either SS or 3B. Hence the GIDP numbers. Grichuk has the edge defensively.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#402161) #
Yeah not sure what those stats mean or are from. Career wise Grichuk has actually been a much better hitter in the second half. Dickerson has been slightly worse in the second half. Say Grichuk goes on his customary second half run (career 119 WRC+) he is probably going to be fine.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#402162) #
Average, OBP, Slug, OPS
Those numbers come from the MLB site. Go to team Roster. Click on player. Go to splits. The GIDP numbers are from advanced stats.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#402163) #
I really don’t think that the difference in skill between Grichuk and Dickerson will make a big difference to victories for this team. But sending Grichuk out every day is futile and discouraging to a young team that needs a lift. There are a few things that could be done, each of which would help the team a little bit. Maybe the total of those moves would make the team quite a bit better. Worth a try because as it stands this team doesn’t have much chance at the playoffs.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#402164) #
Not sure where you're getting those numbers from. This is what I see:

.259 .289 .460 .749

First two numbers match yours, last 2 numbers do not. He has not underperformed Dickerson this year.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#402166) #
Yup! You’re right. My old eyes skipped down a line and got that wrong.
Kasi - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#402167) #
Anyway Grichuk has the same issue anyone on this team not named Vlad, Bo or Teoscar has. They have all been absolutely rubbish at situational hitting this year. It’s almost a running joke that Grichuk will get that one hit in the eighth when they’re down big to pad his stats. But if it’s important you’re kinda right it feels like a guaranteed dp.
krose - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#402168) #
June- .231 .252 .413 .666
July- .148 .179 .370 .549

Pretty sure JD could come close to that with better defence.
John Northey - Saturday, July 10 2021 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#402169) #
Krose - can't find numbers that match yours, but for the 2nd half career (2nd half is what matters now)...
Grichuk: 262/304/539 843 OPS, solid.
Dickerson: 280/317/504 821 OPS, also solid.

So if they perform as they have throughout their careers it makes no real difference which you pick. Of course Dickerson is 32 and his OPS+ is 93 vs a career 116 while Grichuk is 29 with an OPS+ of 104 vs career 106, so I'd expect Grichuk to be more likely to reach or exceed his career figures.

In the end, I expect Grichuk and Dickerson to be in a semi-platoon situation. With Springer and Hernandez the only OF'ers guaranteed to play everyday while Grichuk and Gurriel (both batting right) lose playing time thanks to Dickerson (bats left). When Grichuk plays he'll be in RF (Hernandez to LF, Gurriel to DH) or CF (to give Springer a day off), when Dickerson plays he'll be DH or LF.

2nd half lineups I expect more often than not...
vs all...
1B: Vlad
2B: Semien
SS: Bo
CF: Springer

vs RHP...
CA: McGuire
3B: Biggio
LF: Gurriel
RF: Hernandez
DH: Dickerson

vs LHP:...
CA: Jansen
3B: Espinal (sometimes Biggio)
LF: Hernandez
RF: Grichuk
DH: Gurriel

I know, I know, Montoyo says he is making McGuire the 'everyday' catcher, but I figure that won't last long. The last two weeks his OPS has been 343 not counting today (1 for 2) and we all have seen he loves Jansen in the past. This leaves a catcher with either Grichuk or Dickerson, and Biggio or Espinal. Not bad for a short bench. If they choose to keep Davis up (I doubt it) he'd be the PR/defensive sub guy only.
Kasi - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#402172) #
Rough spot for Atlanta now. Acuna out for the year with a torn ACL.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#402175) #
Borucki yesterday for Bisons - 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 15 pitches, 8 strikes.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#402177) #
This Jays team may be under performing in clutch situations and in their Pythagoras, but there's a lot of baseball left. Maybe they'll continue to be less than the sum of their parts, but I still think they're in a good position. 2015 team was 8 games back on July 30th, below .500.

In a 2015 trade deadline like scenario, if somehow the Jays ended up with Berrios, Kimbrel, and Joey Gallo all by August 1st, wow. They have the cupboard to do it, but will Atkins be able to get those guys without emptying it?

Or, seeing how 85-90 wins could snag the 2nd wildcard, do they only get 1 of those guys (or none) and bank on Springer returning to form, and a healthy, stable bullpen?

Personally, it would be fun to see another 40-17 stretch like '15, but I think the Jays are better than the Mariners and Yankees and a one game Wildcard against the Rays or Red Sox would also be great.

PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#402179) #
There will be no 2015 team like scenario. I don't expect any big trade at all, maybe another deal similar to the 2 previous ones. There will be as many as 12 teams looking for the same thing and overpayments may be necessary to make acquisitions. The FO is highly unlikely to do that nor should they. Much will depend on the standings July 29 but it seems probable the Jays are more pretenders than contenders. They are not ready for serious contention yet. It is not the time to go all in and they won't.
92-93 - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#402180) #
Why bother signing Ryu and Springer if you aren't willing to make the necessary moves to compete? That money would have been better spent this offseason, or the next one.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#402181) #
It's up to the players now. Atkins did help shore up the biggest weakness (and got rid of Panik).

If our team can go on a bit of a run, prices shouldn't be as high as some may expect. There is no WC race in the NL. Contenders have to catch either the Brewers or Mets. If the gaps are big enough, that leaves only 5 potential buyers.

In the AL, Cleveland, Oakland and the Rays may make moves, but none will take on much, if any salary. Higher priced position players, especially a rental like a Kris Bryant, may not have much of a market.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#402182) #
It's a gradual process and we have been told that all along. I expect a bigger push for 2022 when the team may be more ready to contend. The loss of a minor league season has put everything back at least a year as the next wave is not yet on the cusp. Pearson was really needed for the team to contend in 2021. Shi Davidi said earlier in the week not to expect any top prospects to be traded now and I believe he is right. They will get what they can with what they are willing to give up- Kevin Smith (maybe), Samad Taylor, possibly a big league OF or C. I do think it possible a couple of more significant prospects may be moved in the off season....Jordan Groshans comes to mind.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#402183) #
You can add Boston, Houston, Chicago and maybe NY to AL teams that may make deadline moves. In the National league, LA, SD, SF, Mets and Milwaukee may want to add for playoff runs.

As for the question about why signing Springer in 2021, it was because of the opportunity as few teams were competing for FA's due to budget cuts. The plan. I believe, was always to target 2022 and even that may have been slightly delayed to to the loss of a minor league season.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#402184) #
The Twins signed Donaldson and other FA's. Should they be big buyers this trade deadline? How about the Phillies and Harper? Angels with Rendon among others?

Teams don't make deadline moves based on FA's they signed, they make moves depending on what chance they have of actually making the post-season that year.

Once chances of making the post-season reached slim and none, no GM I can remember that wanted to keep their job started buying big at the deadline.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#402185) #
Well all the teams I have mentioned have a better chance of making the post season than the Jays so TO should be well down the list of teams looking to add. And then you also have the question of whether adding makes any sense for a shot at a WC as opposed to a legit shot at 1st place?
bpoz - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#402187) #
hypobole and Magpie you have convinced me that young teams lose a lot.

Just checking ages.

Pitchers: Castro, Kay and Manoah are quite young. So overperforming their age.
Pitchers that are/should get better with age, Ryu, Stripling, Dolis, Chatwood and maybe Ray. Sadly 3 of our oldest Milone, Phelps and Yates have been unavailable for longish stretches.

Hitters: Catchers all are to young which explains the poor performances. Moreno is the youngest. Atkins is keeping him at the lowest minor league level.

Position players that are young are Vlad and Bo. They are making mistakes which are costing the team.

Atkins signed some older players like Springer and Semien. Expensive but have passed the young stage. Dickerson was added but it cost us Panik.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#402189) #
If the Jays have a legit chance at even a WC, they should still be buyers. Especially so if the plan is to operate at full capacity at the RC next year.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#402190) #
I didn't say they won't be buyers but that it will be limited to what is available with resources they are willing to move. You don't go all in or even close to, when your chances for even a WC seem slim.

There may be some suggestions that indeed they should consider selling. Team could possibly get a young starter now in AAA that could help next year for Semien. However I don't think that will happen even if they fall further back as the optics aren't good plus Semien and Ray can be given QO's and compensation received when/if signed elsewhere.
bpoz - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#402192) #
Agree PeterG. Ray and Semien would bring back something nice. The Jays are an improving team.

We lost our 2nd pick. Houston gained a pick #132 at the end of round 4 for Springer. For Semien and Ray we would get 2 picks at the end of round 2. That is fairly good value and they are still here to help us win games.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#402194) #
The Red Sox have signed Matt Barnes to a two-year extension (plus a club option for 2024). Shouldn't the Blue Jays be doing the same thing with Ray right now?
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#402195) #
Some years lady luck smiles on you. Other years she just keeps kicking you in the jones.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#402196) #
Robbie Ray would be an excellent extension candidate.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#402197) #
I agree that trying to extend Ray would be a good idea. Who knows whether it can be accomplished?
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#402199) #
As the proverb goes, a Ray in the hand is worth more than an off-season of “kicking the tires” on all the top free agent pitchers.
pooks137 - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#402200) #
9.375 million guaranteed a season for 2 years seems light for Barnes. Would have expected a higher AAV or a longer term.

A Kirby Yates with a wonky elbow was still worth 5.5 million.

I guess Barnes' lack of track record as a closer and age of 32 in 2022 played into things.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#402201) #
I'm guessing it was the walks that held him back - he was 4+ BB/9 in 4 of the past 5 years before this one.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#402202) #
Oh, and I'd definitely be exploring something with Ray. I'm not sure what that would look like, though, because he's had such a transformation in his command this year.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#402203) #
Gurriel walks twice? In the same game?
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#402204) #
I just finished looking it up. August 26 2020 the last time. That finished a stretch of 6 walks in 5 games. He only had 8 others the entire season.
krose - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#402205) #
Gurriel walks twice and Espinal goes the other way! Grichuk getting a chance to watch.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#402206) #
hypobole and Magpie you have convinced me that young teams lose a lot.

It's more that they'll lose in ways that leave you shaking your head. The players who make the most young-person-mistakes are Bichette and Guerrero, and they're just really, really young. And Gurriel in the field - he's not as young a player, but he's a very young outfielder, having never played it really until 2019 in the majors.

On the other hand, Biggio is the next youngest guy on the team - he's younger than Espinal, McGuire, Jansen - and he generally plays like he's been around for ten years.
92-93 - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#402207) #
This is the 4th start in a row that Ray has held the opponent to 0 runs through 5. If he pitched for TB his stats would look incredible.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#402208) #
I’m sure Gurriel has played his share of the outfield in the 2+ decades he’s been playing baseball. I think calling him a “young outfielder” is just a way of bolstering the “young teams make mistakes” theory, which, for the reasons I’ve mentioned, probably doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
krose - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#402209) #
Another hit for Espinal. Looks very good in the field. He might be the Jays best defensive infielder.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#402210) #
The problem is if I'm Ray I'd demanding at least $100 over 5 if the Jays ask to do an extension. Maybe more. The Jays gave him $8 mil with a lifetime 103 ERA+ and a 69 in 2020. Now he has a 132 ERA+ before this game (6 shutout innings so far). Entering his age 30 season, I'd be willing to go 5/$100 if I'm the Jays. But he might want $125 for 5 ($25 per) or $30 per over 7 if he is greedy ($210) and he might get that this winter. Teams will pay anything for solid starters and he is looking more and more solid by the day.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#402211) #
I’m sure Gurriel has played his share of the outfield in the 2+ decades he’s been playing baseball.

For sure, he played 40 games in LF in Cuba in 2015-16. Otherwise, he was a middle infielder as elite young baseball players usually are, unless they're left-handed or there's some other reason they don't play there (they're built like Guerrero.) It's remarkable how many of them start out as shortstops.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#402212) #
My bad. Italics begone Did it work?
Nigel - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#402213) #
Gurriel makes just as many head scratching plays on the bases. I think those issues are a feature not a bug with him.

Why do the Jays have to approach the deadline with a binary, seller/binary mindset? I think an exclusive buyer/seller mindset is only necessary at the extremes of the success curve. The Jays aren’t at that point, they’re somewhere in the middle of the success curve, on the way up. I’d be open minded about all options to make the team better or more balanced. I’d be just as open to exploring a sale of Semien as an acquisition of Gallo. I do think that if you sell, you also have to add to make it clear that there’s no white flag situation going on.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#402214) #
So, at least 40 games in the OF as a professional in Cuba, 190 games as an outfielder in the major leagues across three seasons, dozens of games (and countless drills) in the OF in spring training, plus whatever number of unrecorded innings he’s played there throughout his life. And he’s now almost 28. To me, that doesn’t amount to a “young” outfielder. Mediocre, maybe, but not young.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#402215) #
I also do not subscribe to the this team is too young theory. There's two guys that are super young. Both are already contributing at a high level. It has nothing to do with youth. They've lost a lot of close games because of a bad bullpen and an inconsistent offense.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#402216) #
at least 40 games in the OF as a professional in Cuba, 190 games as an outfielder in the major leagues across three seasons

Whereas Teoscar Hernandez, who's just one year older, reached his current level of expertise by playing 1200 games in the oufield. We kind of went through all of this already with Jose Bautista. He had the tools, he didn't have the reps.
Nigel - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#402217) #
I’m not sure that referencing Hernandez’s “expertise” in the OF helps your argument:).
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#402218) #
it is my argument! Hernandez needed more than 1000 games to begin to look competent.

Really, it's as simple as this. It's not easy. If it was as easy as it looks, they'd all be Gold Glovers, seeing as how these are the best qualified people on the whole freaking planet attempting the task.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#402219) #
So, another great game from Ray - price keeps going up for him. I could see committing to 5 years, but not 7. $25 mil a year? $20 would be easy, $25 my upper limit. If some nut wants to give him $30+ a year then he can head there. So my max deal for him is $125 mil over 5 years.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#402220) #
This is a whole thing with me, though. Baseball fools us, by looking so easy. And the fact that almost all of us have done the very same things we see the professionals do - fielded a ground ball and thrown to first, run under a fly ball and caught it - makes it worse. It ain't easy.
Nigel - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#402221) #
Magpie, I agree with every word of that. However, I think it’s also dangerous to just assume that toolsy OFs who are poor defenders will
simply get better with experience. Many don’t. Alvis Woods was always a poor OF although highly athletic. In fact, my historical complaint about prospect reports about OFs is that they often describe highly athletic but comically bad defensive OFs as good defensively because they are describing their athletic tools not their baseball skills. Hernandez was a classic example of this.
ae_scott - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#402222) #
"Baseball fools us, by looking so easy."

Indeed. I think this is why fans tend to fall in love with the guys who *look* like they're working hard over the guys who are so good that they make it look effortless.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#402223) #
If it takes Gurriel Jr. 1000 games in the majors to get comfortable in the outfield, he'll be at least 33 years old (and no longer a Blue Jay) by the time he achieves that goal.
pooks137 - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#402224) #
I don't think I'm in favour of investing 25 million/yr or 125 million into a guy like Robbie Ray. Seems like the very definition of buying high.

I'm much more amenable to trying to bring lots of guys like Matz and Stripling to camp each year along with your starting pitching prospects from the minors to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle without destroying your payroll flexibility for half of a decade.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#402225) #
No, the presence of the tools absolutely does not guarantee eventual competence.

I think Bautista - who hardly ever played the outfield until age 29 - eventually achieved a level of basic competence. Just in time for his athleticism to leave him. I think Hernandez is approaching that same level and at a younger age. In my mind, Gurriel is still developing as an outfielder. But yeah, if it takes him 1000 games to get where he needs to go it won't do this team any good. So one hopes it won't take him that long.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#402226) #
And of course they don't all need 1000 professional games.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#402227) #
I'm much more amenable to trying to bring lots of guys like Matz and Stripling to camp each year along with your starting pitching prospects from the minors to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle without destroying your payroll flexibility for half of a decade.

Oh jeez. I hope extending one Robbie Ray doesn't destroy the payroll flexibility for a half decade. If it does then maybe Rogers should get out of the baseball business.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#402228) #
Ray's free agency should be interesting. If Ryu gets $80 million for his age 33-36 seasons... but then Ray has nothing like the same track record. He's had one season like this before, and it was four years ago.

But there are only so many good major league starters. And there are 29 other GMs. It only takes one to say five years at $25 million, how about it? Would I go there? (Sure, it's not my money!) I don't know. Because he's had only one season like this before!
rafael - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#402229) #
The Jays don't look like a team that could go far in the playoffs even though mathematically still in it. Plus they have issues to solve for next year so sure try and extend Ray but if he's not interested and we're not on a winning streak then maybe seriously consider selling him and eventually all your best short term only assets. We got lucky with our starters this year so far - I wouldn't count on that next year.
pooks137 - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#402230) #
You can only have so many 25 million dollar players on your payroll no matter what your budget is. Each one you add, especially for longer terms, is an opportunity cost down the road where you won't be able to add someone else.

The Jays already have an increasingly old Ryu for 2 more at 20 million, Springer for 5 more at 25, Grichuk for 2 more at 10 million. Bo and Vlad will also soon start costing real money commensurate to their performance either through arbitration or extensions.

The Jays currently still have payroll room and flexibility, but you also can only allocate it once.

If you spend 25 million for 5 years on a guy like Ray and the back end of his contract ends up like Russell Martin's, Jose Reyes' or Troy Tulowitzki's, suddenly you lose the nimbleness to offer 18 million dollar pillow contracts to guys like Semien or take on salary in trades like the Francisco Liriano/Reese McGuire trade.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#402231) #
Well, that's why Ross Atkins makes the big money.

Not as much as Tyler Chatwood, mind. But big enough!
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#402232) #
Watching payroll is critical for the Jays of course, as it is for all teams. Since we are going into the break I might try to make a 'future plans' post. But for now, checking Cot's I see $64, $60, $24, $24 mil committed for the next 4 years by the Jays right now. Ray, Semien, Dickerson, Yates, Matz, Chatwood, Phelps, Milone are in line to be free agents. Ray, Semien, and Phelps are the only ones I'd be trying to resign (Phelps fairly cheaply) with Yates and Matz on a 'depends on price' (IE: if super-cheap why not). Chatwood is a 'don't let the door hit you too hard on the way out', Milone is a 'so what', Dickerson is a 'depends but unlikely'.

Ray & Semien will be very high profile this winter - $20-$30 mil each per year for 4+ years, probably 5+. Semien would depend on the kids - if any kids are ready then you can let him go without fear. Biggio takes over 2B, kid at 3B. Which kid? Vinny Capra out of nowhere is hitting 355/421/570 in AA at 24, Samad Taylor 303/393/567 in AA at 22, Kevin Smith 258/358/526 in AAA at 24, Otto Lopez 338/399/472 in AA at 22 (already on 40 man), Austin Martin 273/394/379 in AA at 22, Jordan Groshans 260/333/418 in AA at 21. With a strong 2nd half any of those guys could force the Jays hand in 2022. Not to mention Espinal who at 26 has shown he can play defense very, very well and has hit 321/367/420 including today. Those are a lot of decent cheap options to replace Semien in 2022, at least one of them should be a solid replacement for $20+ million less.

Ray is harder to replace - Ryu, Stripling, Manoah, then who for 2022? Ray returning leaves only one slot open for Pearson and the other kids - Kay, Thornton, Zeuch (all 3 should be #6 and beyond imo), Simeon Woods Richardson, Hatch, and others. Having one slot for all those kids is OK, having 2 slots is asking for trouble. So either resign Ray or spend a lot trying to find another guy. Plus, of course, few trust Stripling to hold his gains so far, and who knows if Manoah will be the guy we think he can be (153 ERA+ so far in 40 1/3 IP is nice, but he feels like a tightrope walker some days, I like him but can he keep it up in 2022 and beyond?).

Hernandez is in his 2nd year of arbitration this winter (I expect over $10 mil), Stripling his 3rd and final year of it (over $10 mil), Dolis, Cimber, Barnes all are into it, and Vlad is on his first year of it as is Biggio, Jansen, Mayza, and Borucki. Bichette is after 2022 as is Romano and maybe McGuire. Yeah, costs are about to start jumping. So is Ray a guy who you feel will be an ace for 5 years? He might be and if he is then he is easily worth $25+ mil a year. But that $100 mil or so of payroll space can be eatten quickly by all those kids. I'm sure the Jays are debating what to do for long term deals with the core (Vlad & Bo mainly) or do they wait and pay arbitration rates until they reach free agency? Not an easy choice, and given their parentage Vlad & Bo might want to hold off (money not an issue for them I suspect). I could see a few guys wanting to do a group deal - sign the group of us and we'll all stay - Vlad, Bo, Biggio all came up together through the system, maybe they want to do a Trammell/Whitaker thing where they are teammates for a long, long, long time.
PeterG - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#402233) #
We may have to go high to extend Ray as signing an impact starting pitcher in free agency won't be easy. There are not many available and those that are will be less inclined to pitch in AL East or TO than elsewhere. It is much easier for Jays to sign position players. I think I would go up to 5/125 on Ray though would certainly try for less. As John said, if he wants 5/150, I would have to take a pass.
bpoz - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#402234) #
Baseball has changed over the decades. No more J Morris throwing 140+ pitches/game on a 4 man rotation.

No player becomes a regular unless he can hit except catchers who get jobs even if they hit under 200.

I think most of us accept that offense trumps defense in getting a regular position. Many of us eventually came to that conclusion watching Teoscar learn defense. Gurriel provides enough offense to tolerate his defense level. I think Teoscar was worse than Gurriel way back when.

The present and future of J Davis, B McKinney and D Fisher are interesting to me. McKinney and Fisher were high draft picks that were chosen for their overall offense potential IMO. Davis was a low pick that became good enough to be a bench player.
Kasi - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#402235) #
I think we all realized we had to sign a star pitcher in the offseason. I just don't think any of us thought that guy was Ray and we already had him on the team this year. It really makes me wish we had offered him a bit more with an option year because while I think he can be excellent for 2-3 years I don't see 5 working out great.

That being said I'd probably rather pay Ray than Scherzer.

Who are the other options?

Lance Lynn
Clayton Kershaw
Dylan Bundy
Keven Gausman
Stroman (no he's not resigning here)

I guess as long as we get one of the above I'll be happy enough. I have no idea which will age well and which will be wasted money though.
Kasi - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#402236) #
Well I don't want Bundy, although he might be worth an 8 million reclamation project if Walker thinks he can get something out of him.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#402237) #
A good day for the Jays. They won, and Tampa, Boston and New York lost.
jerjapan - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#402238) #
Ray is probably pretty invested in returning, given the circumstances.  I imagine there is a pretty easy way to do this. 
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#402239) #
The only bad result is Oakland won, so the Jays remain 4.5 games back of them for 2WC, although only 2 in the loss column.
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#402240) #
Ray is probably pretty invested in returning, given the circumstances.

It's going to be all about the Benjamins, as the kids say. (They do say that, right?) It helps that he seems to have a good relationship with Walker, and had a good year here. But he will absolutely, completely, totally believe he would have done exactly the same anywhere else - well, anywhere except Arizona - because that's just how elite athletes think. He took a pay cut in 2021. This is his big chance for some big money.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#402241) #
Presumably that's why the Red Sox pounced on Barnes now. The closer you get to the end of the season, the more incentive for the player to test free agency. Anthopoulos was able to work out an extension for EE at the ASB. This would be a good time for the Jays to do the same with Ray.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#402246) #
Here are some current predictions for the Jays (#19):

Fangraphs: Jordan Wicks
BA: Will Bednar
Jim Callis ( Gunnar Hoglund
Jonathan Mayo ( Ryan Cusick
Mike Axisa (CBS): Jay Allen
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#402248) #
Sorry posted that in the wrong thread.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#402249) #
I figure the old Toronto disadvantage becomes an advantage now - Ray has played here and had fun, he knows the environment and saw in Arizona how things can be very different. I'm sure given a reasonable deal he'd choose to stay here where he is having his best success. Vs the normal where the Jays need to add a year to get a guy to come here (Springer). That said, this is probably Ray's only shot at the big big bucks - to set himself and his kids up for life. Heck, his grandkids if no one goes idiotic (see Jack Clark who blew his ML earnings on race cars for example).

Of the others, I could see the Jays taking a chance on someone like Dylan Bundy given their success with Ray, or Syndergaard if they feel like taking another injury risk - but might be a bit snakebit there after Yates. Kevin Gausman is having a year for the ages (sub 2 ERA) but never looked anywhere near this good before (106 lifetime ERA+), Clayton Kershaw is a free agent but cannot imagine him leaving LA. Max Scherzer is an interesting one - he'll be 37 in September but is still going strong. Do you offer him 3 years at $30 mil? At $20-25? I figure he'll be after a 3 year deal, no sane team would give him 5 except in a LeMathieu type thing (spread money out to lessen impact on luxury tax). In 3 years the Jays will start really hitting the big bucks for Vlad/Bo/Biggio/Hernandez so that could work out. Maybe front load instead of back load. It could work. But I'd have trouble going to $30 per for 3, $30 per for 2 sure, but that 3rd year is a likely write off so you would want to limit exposure.

It will be a fun offseason no matter what I figure. Could be sad if Rogers goes cheap, but I suspect with the dome likely open for crowds they'll want to make a splash. Thus if Scherzer is willing to come here I could see it happening with the Toronto tax of a 3rd year being needed (assuming Washington/NY/LA won't go that far)
Magpie - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#402251) #
Complete change of subject. And sports.

I've always thought the NHL was run by fools, continually finding new ways to sabotage a marvellous game. But not even the NHL uses the shootout in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

That said, England losing on penalty kicks will never not be hilarious.
scottt - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#402260) #
Soccer is all about kicks.
Many overmatched teams try to run the clock hoping to win on kicks.

France was the favorite and got knocked out on kicks by Switzerland early on.

Hockey is a game of sprints with players tagging in and out continuously.
Soccer is a marathon with most of the same guys playing the whole thing without breaks.

scottt - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#402265) #
I think they wait and give Ray a QO.
Then they try to resign him .

The Jays scored 1 run and lost, 2 runs and lost, 3 run and won.
Tough series.

They'll have to go something like 45-30 in the second half.
7 games against Boston before the trade deadline.
The Rays start the second half against the Acuna-less Braves. That kinda sucks.

August has 4 against Cleveland, 3 against Boston, 4 against the Angels (With Trout back, of course),
3 at Seattle, 4 against the Pale Hoses, 6 against Detroit (who will hopefully have traded some top players) and the start of a series against Baltimore.

September has a series against the A's , 7 games against the Twins (hopefully they sell several pieces too) and a bunch of games against the division. 

The Rays and Jays have a softer schedule. Boston has lots of division games to play.

Chuck - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#402294) #
Houston walked 14 Yankees today... and won. In 48 plate appearance, the Yankees recorded 28 TTO events.

The Astros won with a huge 9th inning thanks in large part to Jose Altuve's 20th homerun. Altuve, booed and mocked for garbage cans and buzzers, is hitting just as well as during that now-infamous period.

The world is not making much sense.

John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#402299) #
Wow, that Houston/Yankee game would've been painful to watch for anyone - 14 walks for the Yankees, 2 for the Astros. 7 Yankee walks in the last 2 innings, leading to 3 runs. Crazy. I was hoping Chapman blew it but he wasn't used which is odd. With the ASG on Tuesday he should've been used today (wasn't used Saturday).
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#402302) #
Chapman has been pretty bad lately. Chad Green took over closing a few games ago.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#402304) #
Thanks hypobole.  Haven't paid close attention.  Yet Chapman goes to the ASG.  Go figure.
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