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The 2021 Major League Baseball draft concludes today with rounds 11-20. The Toronto Blue Jays have selected eight pitchers and one outfielder with their first 10 picks.

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Image from The Gazette.

11th round - 332nd overall. LHP Trenton Wallace, Iowa. 6-foot-1, 200. Bats Left. Born March 31, 1999. - The son of longtime Augustana (Ill.) baseball coach Greg Wallace, Trenton has been a two-way performer for Iowa for four seasons. A full-time pitcher and part-time outfielder, he moved into the Hawkeyes' weekend rotation for the first time this spring and became the first player in school history to win Big Ten Conference pitcher of the year accolades. He could be the highest Iowa pitcher drafted since Wes Obermueller was a second-rounder in 1999. Wallace has below-average fastball velocity, sitting at 89-91 mph and topping out at 93, but his heater works as an average offering because he creates deceptive angle with it. His best pitch is a low-80s slider that's effective against both left-handers and right-handers. He should use his slider more often in comparison to his mid-70s curveball, and he also has a low-80s changeup that lacks life and gets too firm at times. Wallace is athletic and has a delivery with little effort, yet he walks more batters than he should because he gets too fine with his pitches for his own good. The hope is that once he focuses solely on pitching, his velocity and control will tick up and he can become a back-of-the-rotation starter. His fallback will be to become a lefty reliever who relies on his fastball and slider. Video

Baseball America - The 6-foot-1, 200-pound lefty transitioned from being Iowa’s right fielder into the Hawkeyes’ Friday night starter and impressed early on with a fastball sitting between 90 and 93 mph, and a slider, curveball and changeup that can all be average to back it up. He’s tough and competitive, with an easy delivery that he is able to repeat and good feel on the mound. The stuff isn’t overwhelming but he’s a lefty who can pitch, throw strikes, and compete. Wallace made 13 starts for Iowa this season, posting a 2.34 ERA over 73 innings, allowing just three homers, walking 37 and striking out 106.

Twitter Reaction

Kyle Huesmann @HuesmannKyle HAWKEYE DRAFTED Trenton Wallace has been selected in the 11th Round (332) by the Toronto Blue Jays. He joins the organization with former Hawkeye Nick Allgeyer, who recently made his MLB debut.

Kyle Huesmann @HuesmannKyle Someone is going to draft Trenton Wallace tomorrow and they are going to get an incredibly talented pitcher. Shocked that he did not get his name called in the first 10 rounds. Big Ten Pitcher of the Year and Second Team All-American.

Matt Collier, developer of FaBIO @reillocity 2021 #MLBDraft FaBIO Profiles: 11-332 (TOR) Trenton Walace, Iowa Back to back impressive lines from two-way also-OF Wallace, this time with a more startery all-around batted ball profile although control did fall off a fair amount.

Image from Dayton Flyers.

12th round - 362nd overall. 3B Riley Tirotta, Dayton (Ohio). 6-foot-3, 195 lbs. Bats Right, Throws Right. Born August 21, 1998. - Tirotta is coming off a season that earned him ABCA/Rawlings East All-Region First Team honors after tying for the Atlantic 10 lead with 16 home runs in 2021. That mark ranked third in a season in program history. The senior was also named to both the All-Atlantic 10 Second Team as well as the Atlantic 10 All-Championship Team and tied for third in the A-10 with 58 RBIs in 2021. The South Bend, Ind., native led the Flyers with a .696 slugging percentage and 14 stolen bases and was named to the Bobby Bragan Collegiate Slugger Award Watch List as well as being named the Atlantic 10 Preseason Player of the Year by both Perfect Game and

Twitter Reaction

Mark Skol, Jr. @markskoljr_WNDU "Riley is kind of one of those one of a kind special players that comes along." Even back in HS, it was known @TirottaR was a special talent for @marianhssports Take a trip back to 2017 as @angdicarlo tells a story of the Marian alum Riley Tirotta, who is now a Blue Jay! Video link -

Image from Lehigh University

13th round - 392nd overall. RHP Matt Svanson, Lehigh. 6-foot-5, 235 lbs. Bats Right. Born January 31, 1998.

Twitter Reaction

Lehigh Baseball @LehighBaseball @mattsvanson was the #PatriotBaseball's most consistent starter in 2021, leading the way with a 2.30 ERA in 12 starts. @mason_black_ has certainly learned a thing or two from the graduated right-hander. #GoLehigh | #MLBDraft

Quakertown Blazers @QBlazers_ACBL Congratulations to former Blazer (2018) @mattsvanson on being drafted by @BlueJays in the 13th round! Matt was a huge part of our championship run and has really developed so well at @LehighBaseball. Excited to see what he does at the next level! Congrats Matt! #Blazers

Image from Baseball America

14th round - 422nd overall. 3B Damiano Palmegiani, College of Southern Nevada. 6-foot-1, 195 lbs. Bats Right, Throws Right. Born January 24, 2000. - Born in Venezuela, but raised in British Columbia, Palmegiani was drafted in the 35th round of the 2018 Draft by the Blue Jays before heading to Cal State Northridge to begin his college career. He transferred to College of Southern Nevada last summer and was one of the best offensive performers at the junior college level, leading all Division I juco hitters with 26 homers and finishing with a 1.388 OPS. A right-handed hitter, Palmegiani has some serious now power, with the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Extremely physical, he has strong hands to generate good bat speed and shows solid bat to ball skills. While not a speedster, he is better underway and managed to steal 14 bases this spring. The biggest question surrounding Palmegiani is where he belongs defensively. He played third for Southern Nevada and has enough arm for the hot corner, but most scouts don't think he can play there at the next level. He's played a number of positions as an amateur, but left field seems to be the best fit, or perhaps first base, though it's the bat teams will be interested in the most. Video

Baseball America - The native of British Columbia started his college career at Cal State Northridge in 2020, playing sparingly in the shortened season before transferring to the College of Southern Nevada, where he led the offense for the juco powerhouse. Palmegiani posted video-game numbers, with 26 home runs in 203 at-bats and a batting line of .389/.521/.867. He also walked (36) nearly as many times as he struck out (38), and was hit by a pitch 23 times. The power is his calling card, but some scouts wonder about the swing and miss in his game. Even more concerning is his defense, with his unsightly fielding percentage of .799 coming mostly at third base. A below-average defender with poor footwork and hands, his likely landing spot is in the corner outfield, where his average arm and fringe-average speed will play. Palmegiani may need more hitting instruction in order to better manipulate the barrel, and he didn’t face much premium velocity in junior college, which gives pause as to whether he will be able to handle the premium velocity that he’ll face in pro ball. He’s a risky pick for many reasons, but the raw power, along with good makeup, will be alluring enough to get him taken in the top-10 rounds. Although committed to Arizona, he’s considered to be signable.

Twitter Reaction

Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB The #BlueJays get a good one in Damiano Palmegiani. 3B now, could end up in CF with his athleticism. Above average tools with the bat. Big performer this spring. @B_Sakowski_PG a fan.

Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo And there he is: Damiano Palmegiani! A BA favorite who destroyed baseballs this spring and has some real power in the tank, in addition to one of the best names in the draft class. #MLBDraft #BlueJays

Alexis Brudnicki@baseballexis Damiano Palmegiani has been one of my sleeper favourites in this year's class, and was just selected by the #BlueJays in the 14th round. The Venezuelan-born Canadian walked me through a scouting report on himself earlier this year for @BaseballAmerica

Matt Betts @Bettsy41 The @BlueJays take Canadian slugger Damiano Palmegiani (Surrey, BC) with the 422nd pick in the 14th round. Palmegiani had a huge year for @CSN_Baseball and is a @ArizonaBaseball commit. @damiano_p24 @VABjets

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon The #BlueJays selected Canadian Damiano Palmegiani in the 14th round of the #MLBDraft today. The Surrey, BC boy was one of the best home run hitters in college baseball, with 7 multi-home run games for College of Southern Nevada

Damiano Palmegiani @damiano_p24 Incredibly blessed, thank you to everyone that made my dream a reality. @BlueJays

Image from Austin Peay

15th round - 452nd overall. OF Garrett Spain, Austin Peay. 5-foot-11, 178 lbs. Bats Left, Throws Right. Born September 21, 2000. - The redshirt sophomore has proven his worth as an NCAA player capable of making that leap -- he’s played 115 games with the Governors, hitting .318 with a .400 on-base percentage. He’s smacked 19 career home runs, compiled 109 RBIs and stolen 22 bases, all while locking down center field at The Hand. His accolades include 2019 OVC Freshman of the Year, a spot on the Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-America team, All-OVC second team honors and multiple honor rolls to boot. After finishing the 2021 season, Spain made the trip to West Virginia to join the Black Bears of the MLB Draft League -- a group of college ball players making up six teams in hopes of showcasing their game to scouts from across the country.

Twitter Reaction

Jesse Goldberg-Strassler @jgoldstrass The 15th round, now concluded, was highlighted by River Town, Garrett Spain, and Alaska Abney.

Image from Prep Baseball Report

16th round - 482nd overall. RHP Micah Bucknam, Mennonite Educational Institute (Abbostford, BC). 6-foot-1, 195 lbs. Bats Right. Born August 26, 2003.

Second-youngest player in Baseball America's Top 500 prospects, rated #247.

Twitter Reaction

Alexis Brudnicki @baseballexis Abbotsford, British Columbia's Micah Bucknam becomes the 15th Canadian taken off the draft board, selected by the #BlueJays in the 16th round. I got to talk to the 17-year-old right-hander not long ago for @BaseballAmerica

Perfect Game Scout @PG_Scouting Jul 7 Micah Bucknam (‘21 CAN) sitting 89-91, up to 93. Mixing in SL in upper-80s, flashed tightness. CH @ 83-86 w/ depth. Strong frame. #Washington commit #PGDraft #WWBA

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon Toronto also selected Canadian high schooler Micah Bucknam from Abbotsford, BC. Born in August, 2003, RHP Bucknam is already touching 96 with his fastball

Image from AZ Central

17th round - 512nd overall. LHP Cooper Benson, Arizona State. 6-foot-0, 213 lbs. Bats Left. Born August 3, 2000. - Cooper Benson and Boyd Vander Kooi, two of Arizona State baseball's starting pitchers, will undergo season-ending Tommy John elbow surgery. Benson, a redshirt freshman, pitched six innings in the season opener Feb. 19 then exited after one inning against Hawaii on Feb. 26. Benson, a 6-0 lefthander, worked his way into the No. 1 starter role in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season, going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA. He has 35 career strikeouts in 27 innings.

Twitter Reaction

Jacob Rudner @Jacob_Rudner With the draft occurring in July, ASU lefty Cooper Benson was eligible for selection. He was picked by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 17th round. He has three years of college eligibility left.

Image from Saint Leo Lions

18th round - 542nd overall. LHP Jimmy Burnette, Saint Leo University (Florida). 6-foot-2, 205 lbs. Bats Left. Born October 19, 1998. - Sunshine State Conference Pitcher of the Week (5/10) … made nine appearance on the mound including a team-high eight starts … posted a 3-5 record with a team-high three victories … finished with a 5.76 ERA through a team-high 45.1 innings pitched … struck out a team-best 53 while walking 20 … posted back-to-back complete-game seven inning appearances versus Nova Southeastern (4/30) and Barry (5/8) to finish the season … selected to the inaugural MLB Draft League in the summer of 2021 … went a season-high 7.0 innings in four of his nine appearances

Image from Miami Dade College - The Reporter

19th round - 572nd overall. C Juan Gonzalez, Miami Dade College (Florida). 5-foot-10, 195 lbs. Bats Right, Throws Right. February 20, 2001.

The Register - The five-foot-ten-inch catcher from Venezuela has played in World Cups and international tournaments in countries like Korea, Spain, Italy, and the Czech Republic in the past six years. Now, Gonzalez, who graduated from Champagnat Catholic School in Hialeah in 2020, was born in Caracas, Venezuela, on Feb. 20, 2001. He grew up in La Guaira, a port city 21 miles away from the capital. Gonzalez enjoyed basketball and soccer but gravitated toward baseball because his older brothers, Tito and Julian, played the sport. When he was four years old, Gonzalez joined Criollitos de Venezuela, the country’s little league system, and quickly developed an interest in catching. To him, the position meant having a voice on the field while leading the team’s pitching staff.

Image from Reading Eagle

20th round - 602nd overall. RHP Luke Holman, Wilson HS (Pennsylvania). 6-foot-4, 190 pounds. Bats Right. Born September 20, 2002. - Craig Holman spent eight years pitching in the Phillies' farm system after being taken in the 22nd round of the 1991 Draft, but never made it to the big leagues. He's hoping for better things from his son, Luke, who beat anaplastic large cell lymphoma as a child and was getting large crowds of scouts at his starts this spring. As part of a bumper crop of high school talent in Eastern Pennsylvania, scouts flocked to watch Holman while getting to double up by seeing outfielder Benny Montgomery or fellow right-hander Michael Morales. Holman has made the most of the attention, showing off his size, projection and stuff fairly consistently. The projectability is the main thing with a 6-foot-4 frame that should be able to add strength. That could mean more consistent velocity for a fastball in the 90-94 mph range, thrown with good spin rates. Holman also can really spin his breaking ball, a pitch he typically throws in the mid-70s that flashes plus at times. He can mix in a decent changeup occasionally as well. Holman's athleticism on the mound is another asset that should help him repeat his delivery and throw strikes. A team that likes prep arms with some ceiling could take Holman early enough to keep him from heading to the University of Alabama. Video

Reading Eagle - More than one Major League Baseball team expressed interest Monday in drafting Wilson right-hander Luke Holman, but the price wasn’t right for him. Craig Holman, Luke’s father, said that his son turned down offers of signing bonuses of $800,000 and $700,000 before two teams made their third-round selections. He said his son had been seeking $1 million. He’s signed a letter of intent to enroll next month at Alabama.

Twitter Reaction Paul Roberts @PaulRobertsCuse I do know that Coach Bohannon at Alabama has been first class with Luke Holman throughout this entire process, and Luke’s parents are very impressed with him.

2021 MLB Draft - Day 3 | 48 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#402396) #
I'm pretty sure the Blue Jays have selected 8 pitchers with their first 9 picks.
More like 8 1/2 pitchers actually.

#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#402397) #
I'm pretty sure the Blue Jays have selected 8 pitchers with their first 9 picks.

Noted and corrected. Math is hard. It's nine pitchers out of 10 picks now. I was making a prediction!

Here is a story about Trenton Wallace.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#402398) #
2 university picks. Easy to sign.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#402400) #
I see round 11 as the first round you can really take a chance - if he doesn't sign it doesn't affect your budget, but also if he doesn't so what? He is the 300+ player drafted at that point so odds are low he ever reaches, let alone stars in the majors. Roll the dice and see if you get lucky.

Past Jay picks: Round 12 unsigned: Doug Mientkiewicz (11.8 WAR), 13 unsigned: Ted Lilly (27.1 WAR), signed Alex Gonzalez (11.2 WAR), Round 17 signed: Reed Johnson (10.6 WAR), Round 18 unsigned: Kris Bryant (dang it), Round 20 signed: Jeff Kent (55.5 WAR - traded for David Cone in 1992 in the most exciting trade in Jays history imo - that trade made me positive the Jays were going all the way that year).

So from 11-20 you see 6 guys the Jays have ever drafted who got 10+ WAR. 1 near HOF'er (Kent), 2 very good players (Lilly & Bryant), and 3 decent everyday guys (Johnson, Mientkiewicz, Gonzalez). That is out of 420 players drafted. 1.4% who did something significant, counting guys who signed and those who didn't. 2 of the best 3 didn't sign. 57 total reached out of 420 = 13.6%. So of the 10 guys taken today 1 will probably reach the majors, maybe 2. And about a 1 in 10 shot that one who reaches will be a good player (10 WAR lifetime).

Two 2021 Jays were 12th round picks - Tim Mayza (2013) & Nick Allgeyer (2018), 2 more 15th round picks - Jonathan Davis (2013) & Ryan Borucki (2012 - over $400k bonus so a draft and hope you sign guy), 2 from the 17th Ty Tice (2017), Danny Jansen (2013). Interesting to see. Boy whoever was doing the late picks in 2013 did a good job - 3 guys from rounds 11-20 is very impressive (1 an everyday player, another a solid reliever). Give that scouting director (Brian Parker) a bonus, but he was gone by 2017 - now via LinkedIn he is the Senior Director, International Scouting for the Los Angeles Angels.

The draft is a tough thing - lots of random factors. By round 11 you are really getting into randomness. If I ran a team I'd be taking all kinds of crazy risks at this point on guys who a scout loves but doesn't think will sign just in case they are a Rowdy Tellez (30th round) type who really wants to play but is playing their cards too close to the chest thus dropped further than they hoped. Also you hunt for guys who have the skills in smaller programs who might be willing to give the dream a shot. Worst case? You waste a pick that would've had only a 1% shot at being a good major leaguer.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#402401) #
Admit I still have a bit of a "prospect hoarder" mentality. But definitely by day 3 all I'm hoping is at least one of these guys does well enough so we can trade him for a relief pitcher.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#402402) #
Angels have gone 18/18 pitchers and Dodgers made first 15 picks pitchers. This is uncommon so it's obviously a strategy based on...maybe more pitcher volatility because of covid? As in, it's harder to tell pitcher value so you might get much better value? Just a guess.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#402403) #
That Benson photo makes my ankles ache.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#402404) #
I wonder if it's the opposite theory, Glevin. It's easier to judge the stuff in isolation, without relying on the reaction of the competition as much.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#402405) #
"I wonder if it's the opposite theory, Glevin. It's easier to judge the stuff in isolation, without relying on the reaction of the competition as much."

Could be but it's clearly something a bunch of front offices thought about. Angels are now 19/19 pitchers.
scottt - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#402406) #
I was thinking clown shoes.
pooks137 - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#402407) #
It seems like drafting strategy for Rounds 11-20 has changed with COVID.

You don't have as many picks you can waste on guys you probably can't sign as the draft has been shortened to 20 rounds from 40?

On top of the that, nondrafted free agents are capped at a 20,000 bonus as opposed to the 125k if they are drafted between 11-20, so only college seniors with no other options or desperate indy ball players will sign with you outside the draft.

In addition, the chance that you can save enough bonus pool money in rounds 1-10 to make a serious offer to a late round high school draftee is pretty slim with some Alex Anthopoulos-drafting-bullpen-catchers-for-5000-dollars shenanigans.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#402408) #
Well the Jays last pick, Luke Holman turned down 800K from the Cubs so likely a backup plan if something unexpected happens.
scottt - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#402409) #
Dad said he son was seeking 1M.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#402411) #
So 15 pitchers out of 20 picks. It could be analytics related, as in greater chance of a pitcher developing than a hitter.

But this is the first year with fewer minor league teams. The Jays might think they have enough hitters in the system but you can always use more, or better, pitchers. The Jays pitchers have not been great this season so the FO might think the system needs strengthening.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#402414) #
The Angels took 20 pitchers in their draft, a new record for the first 20 rounds.

But Cleveland took 19 and the Dodgers 17.

So there is something afoot. I am sure some journalists are looking into it right now.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#402415) #
Theory from JJ Cooper from BA.

What strikes me about the Angels, Dodgers and Indians going almost all pitching in the 2021 draft. With lack of summer wood bat season in 2020, there may be more certainty for teams in pitchers than hitters.

A pitcher's analytics give teams some comfort in who they are, regardless of the quality of hitters he faced. There is no such comfort with hitters. Judging their ability is more tied to the caliber of pitcher they face.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#402417) #
With very few games played in 2020 and 2021 I suppose the drafted players are looking forward to playing a lot with what is left of the season.

This has probably been stated before.
cascando - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#402418) #
If JJ Cooper's theory is on the mark, it seems like this draft might have been a good chance for a team willing to put in the work to analyze how hitters did against the pitchers they think are good based on their analytics.

Given the imbalance it seems more likely than normal that some very good position player prospects could emerge from the later rounds.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#402423) #
Teams have a lot of technological data on pitchers. Hitters would need more in-depth scouting without the wood bat data. No team cut back their scouting department more than the Angels the past few years.

And to further what cascando said, the teams that kept more scouting eyes may well be the teams that end up with those lower round hitting successes.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 13 2021 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#402424) #
The Rays first 6 picks were non-pitchers.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#402470) #
It’s so good to have a draft when your team has had many of the top drafts in recent years and has stock piled loads of good talent in the system. I haven’t seen a front office have this much success (my subjective opinion), ever, since I started following in 2000.
scottt - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#402472) #
The Rays might just look for good defenders who bat left and hit for power.
Or they could just be picking highly ranked hitters to flip before they get too far.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#402474) #
The past few years, the Rays have targeted short-levered MI's with hit tools more than other teams have. If they can defend or have plus power it's a bonus, but hasn't been a focus.
Not sure about this draft though.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#402475) #
The MLB ball might have been a contribute to that philosophy. With the recent changes, being able to square up might not get the power it had been.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#402478) #
I think the Rays realized that the old philosophy of using high picks on toolsy guys whose hit tool was the weakest wasn't good strategy. Teams used to think "If we can teach this guy to hit, we have a star". A guy like D. J. Davis for the Jays as an example. But it rarely worked.
Then with more and more shifting and fewer balls in play, defence became less important. And even though the ability to hit was extremely difficult to learn, players who could hit could be taught to hit with more power much more easily.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#402481) #
And according to what I heard from Shapiro last year, Cleveland has led the change in thinking about pitching prospects, acquiring pitchers who have excellent command and working on ways to increase velocity. I bet some organisation is already working on a new trend, perhaps based on the expected rules against shifting that's likely coming.
Paul D - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#402482) #
If you didn't notice - the Brewers took a 28 year old in the 20th round. A little more on Samuel Mendez, the Brewers' 28-year-old Draft pick: He played semi-pro basketball in the D.R. but had a desire to give baseball a shot, so he attended Cisco (Tex.) JC beginning last fall. Throws 94-97 and the Brewers think there's potential, so they took a flier.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#402486) #
I take it that if shifting is banned/adjusted then there will be more hits.

Double plays will be less as well.
scottt - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#402487) #
There would be more all-pull hitters. These are the guys who strikeout the most and the hits are only singles, so probably more double plays, actually and maybe less speed on the bases.

It's all relative. If you can't defend against the inside hits, maybe you pitch strictly outside.
However, this is just a half season change in one minor league.
Should not lead to immediate changes.

7th inning double headers are gone next year.
Runners on second in extra innings are probably gone as well, depending on the union.
Rosters will be 13 position players and 13 pitchers and the IL will be back to 15 days.
Maybe a guy like Thornton will have to get 9 outs and if he struggles, you leave him there to finish the game and option him down to AAA after.  I expect the Rays to use 2-way players.

Glevin - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#402492) #
Who says no to this trade?
Jays get Jose Ramirez and Karinchak
Cleveland gets Pearson, Gurriel, Moreno, and Espinal?

lexomatic - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#402499) #
I would by my computer is acting up way too much to back it up.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#402505) #
I would try hard to replace Moreno in there with something more like Biggio.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#402511) #
I like the idea of acquiring Ramirez, who could be an excellent third baseman for the Jays for the next 2.5 seasons, at relatively low cost. In that scenario, Biggio could move to second base, for an infield of Ramirez/Bichette/Biggio/Vlad. And the team has a lot of prospects who could potentially take over third base down the road (such as Groshans, Martin, and Orelvis).

It would be a bit reminiscent of the Donaldson trade (but with 1.5 fewer years of control).

If I were Cleveland I would aim for quality over quantity, maybe ask for Pearson, Moreno, another top 10 prospect, and a lottery ticket prospect or two. If you're going to get our MVP-calibre third baseman, it's going to sting.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#402515) #
Ramirez would hurt a LOT in prospects - but might be an ideal fit. $11 mil next year, $13 in 2023 as he turns 30. 123 OPS+ lifetime, 132 this year, positive dWAR every season but 2020 (which I think we all write off), a switch hitter. Talk about hitting all the right notes - can even play SS/2B/LF if needed.

I agree the price starts at Pearson, Moreno, then adds more on top. I'm positive they'd demand Kirk right now as their starting catcher has a 21 OPS+, backup 74. When your top 2 at a position have a combined OPS+ under 100 you know you have an issue. Cleveland is 8 games out right now, but has a lot of good young players (top 6 in their rotation are 3-26 year olds and a 23 year old and 2-24 year olds for example, their closer is just 23 as well). I doubt that Cleveland is in a rush to trade Ramirez, but given their low budget ways and desire for prospects I could imagine it but it'd drain our system more than the current GM would want to.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#402517) #
I think selling on Pearson and Moreno are both selling low situations, for different reasons.

I would rather move the all-hype no-real-performance-yet names like Martin and Groshans.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#402518) #
“ I think selling on Pearson and Moreno are both selling low situations, for different reasons.

I would rather move the all-hype no-real-performance-yet names like Martin and Groshans.”

I’m the opposite. Pearson is overrated and Groshans and Martin have much more runway and same or better pedigree than Pearson without the injuries.

I do free with greenfrog and ugly in combining their earlier posts together. Since Ramirez has 1.5 less years of control I would try hard to replace Moreno with someone in the next tier down then pull the trigger.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#402519) #
I think for just Ramirez, you can do a bit less but I added Karinchak and he is a very good reliever who isn't a FA until 2026 so he has a ton of value too. I think it makes sense to trade one of Kirk or Moreno. Pearson, I'd trade if you could get top-50 prospect value for him. If not, see if you can get the value to rebound some. Cleveland looks like a good team to trade with for me because they also value cheap major league players so guys like Gurriel, Espinal, Biggio, Kirk, Kevin Smith, etc... could all be very tempting for them
uglyone - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#402520) #

Moreno (21): 9.7b%/15.2k%, .398bip/.373avg, .278iso, 191wrc+
Pearson (22): 28.3k%/8.6b%, 2.59era, 2.90fip, 3.12xfip

Groshans (21): 10.2b%/21.6k%, .330bip/.273avg, .160iso, 114wrc+
Martin (22): 13.2b%/23.0k%, .364bip/.274avg, .104iso, 123wrc+

Performance wise the top 2 are clearly more impressive. Moreno at a ridiculous level, and Pearson at an excellent level.

Groshans looks decent given he's a bit young for the level, but the line is still straight mediocre right across. The only thing encouraging about Martin's line is the patience to draw walks - otherwise he's riding a high babip to put up a mediocre at best average with zero pop so far.

Moreover - Pearson has the loudest tools of the bunch while Moreno is the only one that looks likely to stick at a prime defensive position...and that's the most important defensive position at that.

20ip of bad MLB Performance and 40ip of mediocre AAA performance isn't enough for me to sour on Pearson yet.

And yet I feel like the four of these guys have similar values at the moment which for me means trade Martin/Groshans, not Nate/Moreno.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#402523) #
How many of Pearson’s stats are based on 3, 4 and 5 inning starts?

He doesn’t have “tools” to me. 2 years ago, throwing 100 miles per hour I would have agreed but in 2021 there are probably more than 100 pitchers throwing 95, 96 or higher (minors included) which is where Pearson has dropped back to. His velocity has dipped, his control has worsened and it shows in his results. Plus he can’t stay healthy. I think his chances for big success are the same as Josh Phelps. Huge upside and lots of holes and inconsistencies. Only consistency with him is his injuries.

Sad to say but it’s possible that the best of Pearson may have occurred in the minors.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#402525) #
For the record, I am just hopeful they can do a quick fix with him, get short term results and flip him as a top 25 prospect type piece to let someone else deal with and fix him.

If teams see him as a 50-75 (out of 100 prospect) then I’d include him in the right deal, part of me not wanting to sell that low. If they view him in trades below that then no brainer you keep trying to fix him.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#402527) #
Nate's averaged 4.74ip per game in AAA. Not great but not bad considering hes been rehabbing so much.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 14 2021 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#402529) #
Groshans has been improving as the season goes on. His OPS by month is May 673, June 827, and July 862. It's not clear how robust his health is, though. Will he be able to play 150 games a year in the majors?

Martin seemed to be improving as well (May 731, June 835). In a small sample in July his OPS is 739 with an OBP of 467. Also someone mentioned that he's been working on his hitting mechanics/approach this year as opposed to focusing on counting stats.

Not sure how their defense has looked. I know Law was unimpressed by Martin's throwing when he saw him.

It's probably too soon to significantly downgrade their prospect status, but it would be good to see an improvement in their performance in the second half.
John Northey - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#402534) #
Before his latest injury (Pearson has an issue with that) he did 6 IP 2 R/ER on 2H 2 BB 3 SO. 5 shutout innings the start before that. But before that not so good - 4 IP 5 R/ER, 3 IP 4 R/ER, 3 IP 1 R/ER, 1 ML game 2 1/3 IP 3 R/ER with 5 BB 0 SO, plus 1 other AAA game to start the season 3 2/3 IP 1 R/ER.

Not impressive overall. Mix in injuries and it gets very frustrating. If the Jays can use him to get something significant I'd probably go for it. Especially Ramirez. Not for a reliever, but either an everyday solid 3B who would be here for at least 2022 or a starter.

Using Trade Simulator I get a deal accepted that would be Groshans, Kirk, Orelvis Martinez, Pearson for Ramirez. I can't see the Jays doing that, but I think it makes sense - we have lots of infield prospects so losing 2 to get a star makes some sense, Kirk is surplus with the others we have behind the plate, and Pearson is looking like a risk to keep holding, even with his massive potential - a risk either way. Martin and Moreno also are accepted on a 2 for 1 deal for Ramirez. IE: Ramirez is a very valuable player right now and the Jays prospects that are worth the most are Martin and Moreno. I'd do the first trade (4 for 1), but not the second (2 for 1) depending what the teams scouts and development people say (which we never will know for sure).
Spifficus - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#402538) #
One thing to note for Martin and Groshans are their avg exit below listed on fangraphs' The Board - 90 each. Martin's only had about 200 PAs to figure out how to use it, and Groshans a little over 400 (the injuries being a negative, of course).

I'm not opposed to using any of the 4 in the right deal, depending, but I get the feeling there's definitely more ceiling for those two than where they're at currently.
scottt - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#402546) #
Once Pearson runs out of options, he simply becomes an elite reliever in the pen.
That wouldn't be the end of the world.
He still has options for 2022 and 2023, so no need to panic.

Groshans doesn't need to be added to the 40 roster until December 22.
Martin, December 23.
Seems silly to talk about trading these guys when they're not at peak value.

Kevin Smith, Adams (if they're ready to option Jansen), Samad Taylor, Lopez are redundant guys who could be moved before they're lost.

Glevin - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#402549) #
"It's probably too soon to significantly downgrade their prospect status, but it would be good to see an improvement in their performance in the second half."

I don't think either are downgraded at all right now. Groshans is hitting well and improving at 21 YO in AA which is very young for the level. Martin has a 123 WRC+ as a 22 YO in AA. They're doing fine.
uglyone - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#402552) #
they are doing fine, that's true. Nothing to get too down on them about.

but nthey're ot doing as well as Moreno and Pearson at that same level, nor arguably having as much upside.....while seemingly maintaining similar prospect status as both.

Glevin - Thursday, July 15 2021 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#402553) #
I agree Moreno is doing better right now. Pearson has taken a pretty big step back though. Trading Moreno is about trading from a position of depth. It doesn't make sense for me to keep both Moreno and Kirk if the Jays are upgrading. Would rather trade Kirk but I like him a lot too.
2021 MLB Draft - Day 3 | 48 comments | Create New Account
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