Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The second half begins tonight. The Blue Jays four all-stars are back from Denver and they all tested negative. The stuff we have to concern ourselves with these days.

A bad baseball team is on the schedule. The Texas Rangers, manged by former Jays shortstop Chris Woodward, are bad in general. Bad at home, bad on the road. Bad in April, bad in May, bad in June. They have one of the worst offenses in the AL, despite playing half their games in one of the best hitting parks in the majors. They sent  three all-stars to Denver, and  Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia, and Kyle Gibson are all having very fine seasons. So is closer Ian Kennedy. Four good players do not make a team, however, and the rest of them... not so good.

Gallo has drawn more bases on balls than any major league hitter this season. This is mainly because he has outstanding plate discipline, but why would you pitch to him anyway?  Whoever is  hitting behind him isn't likely to make you regret giving him the walk.

For some reason, Gibson isn't scheduled to start any of this weekend's games. They're saving him for the Tigers. The Jays will send their three LH starters to the hill, and Robbie Ray has moved to the front of the line. I'm assuming Ryan Borucki will be added to the roster before game time. It hasn't happened yet, although Anthony Castro has already been optioned to Buffalo to make room. But Borucki was on the 60-Day IL so another roster move would be required.

And first round pick Gunnar Hoglund signed for $3,247,500 (slot value was $3,359,000.)

We still don't know when or if the Jays will be returning to Toronto. Toronto FC is playing at home this weekend, which is certainly a promising sign. I still don't know that July 30 is realistic.


Fri July 16 - Lyles (5-5, 4.86) vs Ray (7-4, 3.13)
Sat July 17 - Allard (2-6, 3.69) vs Ryu (8-5, 3.56)
Sun July 18 - Foltynewicz (2-8, 5.11) vs Matz (7-4, 4.72)

Rangers at Blue Jays, July 16-18 | 91 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Paul D - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#402637) #
This is a new ballpark - it's one of the worst hitting ballparks in baseball, not the best. ESPN has it at 26 out of 33 for offence.
Magpie - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#402638) #
When did that happen?
hypobole - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#402640) #
Julian Castro, we hardly knew you.
Magpie - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#402641) #
Clearly, I'm nowhere near the top of my game.
johnny was - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#402642) #
I'll always remember that park as the one where the hosts pretended we weren't in a pandemic and gave Teoscar covid, forcing him to miss half of April.
John Northey - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#402643) #
Checking Texas' regular lineup on BR I see 3 over 100 OPS+, the rest 95 or less. One guy on the bench over 100 (23 PA), 3 negative OPS+ guys, my lord they are a bad offensive team. 89 OPS+ overall, thanks to Lowe at 1B (111), Garcia in CF (126), and Gallo in RF (153). But they must make it up in the pitching right? Nope. Gibson is wow (195 ERA+) then Dunning (106), then a 92, 88, 68 ERA+. Although 23 year old LHP Kolby Allard appears to be in the rotation now with his 121 ERA+, but his last 4 starts saw a 5.01 ERA (5-6 IP each time, but 6 HR given up).

Their pen has been good Kennedy is 15-1 in saves-blown saves, and the team overall ERA+ is 101. Of course, as Paul D mentioned this is a new park so park factors will be a mess this year for them, like it is for the Jays. Still, I'd expect the Jays hitters are licking their chops. Especially if Gibson isn't being used this weekend. Weird. Last pitched July 7th other than his 1 inning at the All-Star Game so he should be fine to pitch this weekend. He is scheduled for Monday against the Tigers - wonder if they are trying to up his stats to make him more valuable in a trade? Works for me. Maybe they'll keep Kennedy on ice this weekend too.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#402644) #
We still don't know when or if the Jays will be returning to Toronto.

Apparently the Jays are one sign-off away from getting the NIE to come home for the July 30th date.
Paul D - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#402645) #
They held the world series there last year. From outside it looks like a barn.
PeterG - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#402646) #
Borucki activated. Payamps DFA.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#402648) #
Aaaand now Davidi tweets that they do indeed have the NIE, and in time for their July 30th homestand.
vw_fan17 - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#402649) #
Sun July 18 - Foltynewicz (25-8, 5.11) vs Matz (7-4, 4.72)
Is actually:
Sun July 18 - Foltynewicz (2-8, 5.11) vs Matz (7-4, 4.72)
Would be a very impressive W/L record at this point in the season, and with that ERA :-)
(not trying to nitpick, just wanted to know the actual record, so saving others the trouble of looking it up)
Magpie - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#402650) #
Foltynewicz (25-8, 5.11)

Nope, not even close.
scottt - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#402651) #
Rays back to back. Saving the right arms for Boston and moving Manoah to the end because he's on some sort of inning limit and they trust him to pitch against Boston 2 starts in a row.
Magpie - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#402652) #
No one has ever won 20 games with an ERA as high as 5.11 - I had to find out. Buck Newsom went 20-16, 5.08 for the 1938 St.Louis Browns. The Browns, explains a lot.

His name was Louis Newsom, he was called Buck by his family. He was also known as Bobo because that's what he called everyone, being utterly incapable of remembering people's names.
mathesond - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#402655) #
Aha! Bobo Newsom is a name I remember from reading baseball stories, Buck Newsom not so much.

Right now I'm reading a a biography of Moe Berg ("Athlete Scholar Spy". Pretty fascinating character. There's a cool little 3 line story about the time he and Albert Einstein complimented each other on article they had written for the Atlantic Monthly.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#402656) #
“ I'll always remember that park as the one where the hosts pretended we weren't in a pandemic and gave Teoscar covid, forcing him to miss half of April.”

He contracted the virus from a family member away from the ballpark.
John Northey - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#402657) #
That is great news - the Jays playing in Toronto again starting July 30th. Don't know if I'll be able to get to a game, but I love the idea that it is possible now.
uglyone - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#402659) #
Maybe we should sign Vladdy?
Magpie - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#402660) #
So by the time this weird season is all over, the Jays will have played 19 home games in Dunedin, 26 in Buffalo, 36 in Toronto.
John Northey - Friday, July 16 2021 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#402661) #
Over 2 years the Jays had 'home games' 19 in Dunedin, 36 in Toronto, and 26 each year in Buffalo = 52 games. Both playoff games were in Tampa.

Buffalo ML history...
1879-1885 Buffalo Bisons (National League) 317 home games
1890 Buffalo Bisons (Players League) 65 home games
1914 Buffalo Buffeds (Federal League) 76 home games
1915 Buffalo Blues (Federal League) 77 home games
2020-2021 Toronto Blue Jays (AL) 52 home games

Net ML games in Buffalo = 587 over 3 centuries.
Gap between teams playing: 5 years, 24 years, 105 years

Wonder how long until someone plays ML games there again?
StephenT - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 04:06 AM EDT (#402668) #
My count is 21 in Dunedin, 24 in Buffalo (including 5 not yet played), 1 in Anaheim (Aug 10) and 35 in Toronto (July 30-).
92-93 - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#402669) #
There’s a movie too mathesond; The Catcher Was A Spy.
mathesond - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#402670) #
Very cool, thanks 92-93, I had no idea.
AWeb - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#402672) #
Guerrero's splits at home this year are even crazier than I thought: 40 games at home, so I'll x4 to get a full year equivalent:
.380/.480/.840, 76 HRs, 184 RBI, 156 runs. Hope that carries to home ballpark #3. 
Road Guerrero has of course been a total flop, .296/.392/.533. That would only be a top 10 OPS
Also, this is yet another Jays team that is bitten by the pythagorean record bug. -6 games, worst in the AL. 6-10 in 1 run games, 2-5 in extras (which has seemed like 1-10 to me). Blowing the living h%#$ out of teams though: only one loss by more than 6 runs, but now 10 games won by more than that. I'm happy if they keep below their pythag record by continuing massive blowouts, they just have to do it 2x a week instead of 1.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#402674) #
Also, this is yet another Jays team that is bitten by the pythagorean record bug.

This is one schneid I wish they'd get off.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#402675) #
TB Pythagorean record: 54-37
TB actual record: 54-37

Boston Pythagorean record: 52-40
Boston actual record: 56-36

Jays Pythagorean record: 52-36
Jays actual record: 46-42

Magpie - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#402677) #
yet another Jays team that is bitten by the pythagorean record bug.

It's not so much because of the one-run games - much to my surprise, a few years back I actually devised a pretty good formula to produce a team's expected record in one-run games. For the 2021 Jays that would be... 8-8. (Actually 8.4-7.6, but we can't really use that.)

No, it's their habit of beating the other team senseless and bloody that has skewed their Pythagorean expectation.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#402678) #
The obvious problem is that if each team performs according to its first-half Pythagorean winning percentage in the second half, the Jays will finish well back of Boston and Tampa in the AL East standings. To surpass those teams, the Jays are probably going to need to both play very well and be lucky.
92-93 - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#402679) #
The Jays might regress towards their Pythag if Montoyo ever stops cycling through relievers for no apparent reason other than they might need work. There have been numerous blowouts in the last few weeks where other managers would have used one reliever to finish the game, but Montoyo will use 2-4 guys in a 10 run game and it's bizarre.

There is plenty of room and playing time for Kirk on this roster, even if you don't think he is ready to catch in MLB. Just drop an unnecessary RP.
Jonny German - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#402680) #
And even if they don’t want to drop a reliever, there’s Jonathan Davis who has been occupying a roster spot to no apparent purpose the last 2 weeks.
scottt - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#402681) #
As a starter, Allard is 1-6, ERA 3.95.
John Northey - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#402682) #
Hmm... who has been ignored?

Bench: (Ignoring catchers as they alternate no matter what)
  • Davis: Last game July 11th, Used 4 times in July, 2 PA, always 7th or later, last start June 13th (over a month ago)
  • Espinal: Last game July 11th, used 7 times in July, 16 PA, 500/500/750 - gotta get him into the game.
  • Trevor Richards: used twice since traded for, July 10th last game, 2 2/3 IP 8 batters seeen, 5 K's, 0 baserunners
  • Adam Cimber: another new guy - used last night, 5 times used this month, 4 2/3 IP 2 H 1 BB 3 SO
  • Jacob Barnes: Yep, another newbie - pitched last night, 4 games in July, 4 1/3 IP 20 batters faced, 4 H 4 R/ER 2 BB 8 K (2 each game)
  • Tayler Saucedo: last used July 9th, 4 games in July 12 batters faced, 3 IP, 1 H 2 BB 3 SO, not bad.
  • Ryan Borucki: Just off the IL threw 1 inning last night, 1 H 2 SO facing 4 batters.
  • Anthony Kay: Last used July 10th, just 2 games this month, 2 1/3 IP 5 H 1 R/ER 2 BB 2 SO
  • Rafael Dolis: Last used July 9th, 3 games this month, 2 1/3 IP 3 H 3 R/ER 1 BB 5 SO, 12 batters faced
  • Tim Mayza: Last used July 11th, 4 games this month, 3 2/3 IP 2 H 1 R/ER 0 BB 5 SO
  • Jordan Romano: Last used July 11th, 3 games this month, 3 IP 5 H 3 R/ER 3 BB 2 SO
So lots of use for all relievers except Kay it seems. I'd consider sending him to AAA to build up his arm again as a starter. Davis rarely plays due to having 4 regular OF'ers on the team plus Biggio who plays a lot in the OF. Espinal gets lots of playing time as he is great in the field and has been hitting lately. Seems Dolis might be moving to the managers bad side lately (justifiably so), Barnes is probably next weakest. The rest are doing OK and I'm not scared when they are used, unlike Chatwood or Thornton who'd I'd be expecting to blow the game. So for demotions (assuming a trade is coming, or injured guys come back) I'd go Kay-Dolis (release)-Barnes-Saucedo (although I like him so far).
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#402685) #
It's not so much because of the one-run games - much to my surprise, a few years back I actually devised a pretty good formula to produce a team's expected record in one-run games. For the 2021 Jays that would be... 8-8. (Actually 8.4-7.6, but we can't really use that.)

Can you share that formula?
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#402686) #
Today's game (Saturday) has been rained out. Good job they got yesterday's game in.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#402688) #
The White Sox have signed Lynn to a 2/$38m extension with an $18m club option for 2024 ($1m buyout). Another FA starter off the market. This is what I've been hoping the Jays would do with Ray in recent days. Add an extra year and the Jays' offer would be 3/$57m plus an $18m club option for 2025.
Magpie - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#402689) #
Can you share that formula?

It's childishly simple, but it actually turns out to be accurate when applied to large sets of games.

Half of the one-run games are determined by the quality of the team. The other half are a coin flip, 50-50. The Jays have played 16 one run games so far. They've played .555 ball in the rest of their games. So they go 4.4 and 3.6 in the team quality half, 4-4 in the rest.

The sample sizes for any team in a single season are so small that anything can happen - tails can come up ten times in a row. But over a thousand games, this works.
Magpie - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#402690) #
I've gone into the Theory of One-Run Games often enough. I think I managed to cover the key points, with a bit of brevity, on this occasion. At that time the database comprised 377,162 games of which 114,240 had been decided by a single run.

I'm inclined to believe that any sample smaller than 500 games can produce weird results. So any year, anything can happen.
hypobole - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#402691) #
"There have been numerous blowouts in the last few weeks where other managers would have used one reliever to finish the game,"

I dunno, this seems opinion presented as fact. And just from perusing a few boxscores, it seems an incorrect opinion. I checked about a half dozen blowouts and haven't found a reliever that has gone more than 2 IP.

Here's the big one from last night: SD up 19-5, 3 relievers used 1-1-2 IP.

Jonny German - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#402692) #
Lance Lynn is 5 years older than Robbie Ray, I think Ray laughs at 3 years plus a team option. But I also think the Jays have the inside track, they can keep him if they’re willing to spend the cash. And I don’t see why they wouldn’t be willing to.
hypobole - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#402693) #
I was thinking something similar, but Ray is still 29 yrs old, won't turn 30 till October. Lynn is 34.
DavidtheDeuce - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#402694) #
2015 Blue Jays Pythag Record 102-60
2015 Blue Jays Actual Record 93-69

2016 Blue Jays Pythag Record 91-71
2016 Blue Jays Actual Record 89-73

If memory serves it was a lack of effective relief pitching in 2015 at the start of the season contributing to this outcome. In 2016 the relief pitching was much more effective as Grilli and Benoit settled things down after a slow start by the bullpen.
hypobole - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#402696) #
Checked another 6 blowouts. Still haven't found a reliever used more than 2 innings. Lot's of multiple 1 innings. There seems to be very few true long men anymore.

I do remember the Red Sox using them a couple of times when they were being blown out, like the reliever who gave up 10 runs to us. But those guys were scrub AAA starters who were DFA'd shortly after.
John Northey - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#402697) #
Checking blowouts in the distant past - 1985, my favorite Jay season - followed every game on the radio or TV, for years I could recall every one of the 40 players used and some stats for each.

Checking games with 10+ runs and a margin of 7+ runs...
11-1 win: 1 reliever used (2 innings, Caudill who had lost the closer role by then)
13-5 win: 3 relievers used, one for 4 1/3 innings (Jim Acker), others for 1 2/3 and 1 inning.
11-4 win: 3 relievers used, one for 3 innings (Dennis Lamp, usually the long man)
10-2 win: 1 reliever used for 2/3 inning (4 batters)
10-1 win: 3 relievers used for 1 inning each
10-0 win: 2 relievers used for 1 inning each
10-3 win: 2 relievers used, one for 4 innings (Acker again), 1 for 1 inning
13-1 loss: 5 relievers used, longest for 1 1/3 inning
10-1 loss: 3 relievers used, 2-3-1 inning 3 by Ron Musselman (guy who was on the AAA shuttle iirc).

So 9 games, 1 reliever used twice, 2 twice, 3 4 times, 5 once. 4 innings twice (Acker both times), 3 innings 2 more times (Lamp & Musselman). The long outings always by guys at the back end of the pen (Lamp was 11-0 due to being using in long relief all year, Acker and Musselman were back end of the pen). Different era, but not that different from now for blowouts and how to handle them. Get guys 1 or 2 innings each, don't burn them out unless they are back end guys. What surprised me was checking and seeing Acker actually had a higher game leverage index for entering the game than Henke did that year. Gary Lavelle, the team's LH reliever, was the only guy who had a higher leverage index (over 2, not easy in 89 games). Musselman was the lowest at 0.56

For comparison on leverage... Merryweather leads this year with 2.53 (only 4 games), then Bergen (???) at 1.63 in 9 games, Murphy at 1.35 (6 games), and then finally we get to Romero at 1.34. The lowest for 10+ games is Payamps at 0.80 (clearly the manager doesn't trust him), Thornton is next lowest at 0.85. All others with 10+ games are at 1+. Low game total guys sub 1 are from closest to 1 to bottom Cole, Richards, Roark, Beasley, Kay, Saucedo, Cimber, Milone, Stripling, Tice, Barnes, Allgeyer (0.00).
Spifficus - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#402698) #
Bergen's leverage is entirely based on the Even Chatwood Could Do That game, where he took over from Chatwood with 2 outs, the bases loaded, and up by a run. Fangraphs has his gmLI (leverage index when entering the game) for all other appearances at 0.69. This one? 9.15.
hypobole - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#402700) #
Actually we did have Milone as our long man for a short time. Remember Charlie actually leaving him in for a 3 inning save in a blowout.

Anyone know how to find 3 inning saves this year with only minimal effort? Other than Milone's, the only other one I've seen occurred yesterday, when Houck went 3 in the Red Sox 4-0 win. So not a blowout, And Houck is a top Sox prospect who is supposed to get the start against Ray in our next series.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 17 2021 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#402704) #
In Atlanta’s 9-0 win over the Rays, Fried pitched seven scoreless innings (four hits and one walk allowed, seven Ks) and went 3/3 at the plate with a double, two runs scored and two RBI. Pretty good night’s work.
John Northey - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#402708) #
Nice to see the 2 ahead of the Jays in the AL East lost - Boston & Tampa, so the Jays gained ground without playing. Yankees and O's won. So the Yankees are 1/2 a game behind the Jays but in runs the Jays are +80, Yankees -1, Jays are 20-20 at 'home' while the Yankees are 24-23 at home.

By Run differential (normally a good indicator of what to expect going forward) the Astros are #1 (133), White Sox (120), Jays (80), Rays (77), Red Sox (59), A's (32). Seattle doing it with mirrors or something 1/2 a game ahead of the Jays but -54 in runs (10-1 in extras, 20-8 in 1 run games - both generally pure luck based).

Jays in 1 run are 6-10, extras 2-5 - both signs of just bad luck. Hopefully that bad luck changes to good in the 2nd half. No question, doing a big trade to boost the team would be really nice.

Trade targets: The Athletic thinks Craig Kimbrel is the #1 target, Richard Rodríguez #2 - both closers with dead end teams this year. I don't get the love for Joey Gallo they have as we have 4 regular OF'ers already. Yeah, he hits left and has a 151 OPS+ both very nice but unless the price is low (very unlikely) I don't see him fitting in. José Berríos, Kyle Gibson both starters to be targeted, then a batch of closers before they get to a 3B in Kris Bryant (only a rental, free agent after 2021).

As I've said elsewhere the Jays need a closer and a cornerstone for a few years at 3B. My dream is getting Jose Ramirez from Cleveland as they are building up prospects and are weak behind the plate (21 OPS+ from their starter) so they should be interested in what the Jays have. I see a potential match but it might be too expensive for our GM's tastes. It would be a risk but if done, oh my, every other team would be scared to death to face the Jays this year. Jays are #2 barely in OPS as is. Send a catcher (McGuire or Jansen ideally) away and call up Kirk, and find a way to add Gallo or Ramirez and 10 runs will become common. The only dead zone in the lineup would be would there be one?
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#402709) #
If Gurriel is dangled for pitching then it can open a spot for Gallo.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#402710) #
There is essentially no chance Orelvis Martinez will be traded. I could see the Jays trading a catcher plus one of the overachieving prospects (Smith, Taylor, maybe Lopez or one of the lower minors infielders) if they can obtain good value in return.

I’m sure Ramirez is on the Jays’ short list of players they would like to acquire.
earlweaverfan - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#402712) #
So, John, I have been assuming that we have Biggio at 3B and Semien at 2B this year, as a stopgap solution until either Martin or Groshans comes up to take that cornerstone spot. So far, neither has stepped up to make that scenario seem obvious, from a power-hitting perspective. So I share your focus on that position.

But what about Kevin Smith? Compared to Ramirez, much younger, cheaper, with more years of control, similar OPS, HR/AB, Fielding % (albeit at AAA) and best of all, no prospects needed to acquire him.

If Smith worked out at 3rd, the player who would need to prove himself a keeper would be Biggio at 2nd (not a hitting dead zone exactly but okay for 2B). I would try to re-up Semiens in the off-season, but leave that for another day.

The knock against Smith is his really bad 2019. But the Jays seem hopeful that he has rebounded to the Smith he used to be, before that.

So what if either Martin or Groshans was made available as part of a trade package to, say, Miami for Lopez, (requiring a rich package, including, e.g., Pearson and others)?

If we landed a starter like Lopez (with plenty of years left before FA), our remaining hole to fill is a closer, with only 2-3 available candidates who will be fiercely competed for. But many closers today were late-inning relievers before. Suppose we cast our net wide enough to include starters who have only 2 above-average pitches or really effective non-closing relievers (in the latter camp, I am intrigued by Gallegos of the Cards).

In any case, without having to pay a king’s ransom for 3B, we could afford more pitching help of several kinds.

Finally, if I understand Atkins’ thinking, he wants to make us stronger this year, but without undermining the next several years. Paying too much for 2 1/2 years of Ramirez may run that risk, when Smith might do that job at far less cost.
earlweaverfan - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#402713) #
Dalimon, I would be really surprised if they traded Gurriel. He is reputed to be one of Vladdy’s closest buddies. I think he might be safe until we extend Jr for the next 12 (?) years!
bpoz - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#402714) #
Just comparing O Martinez to F Tatis.

Martinez I believe got a higher signing bonus.

Tatis was traded to SD June 2016 about 11 months after being signed. He was 17 years old. At 18 he blossomed in A-. Was also good in AA as a 19 year old. He skipped AAA. ML superstar starting in 2019. So ahead of Martinez who lost 2020 to covid.

The CWS received cash plus James Shields in the Tatis trade.

Nice story so I will continue. 2016 CWS record with C Sale, J Quintana, C Rodon and D Robertson all pitching well. But not J Shields. 78 wins that year for the CWS.

Don't trade O Martinez.
hypobole - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#402715) #
Here are a couple of AAA East prospects, almost the same age, A 2 months younger than B.

A: 219 PA, 11.0 BB%, 23.7 K%, .270/.365/.571, .293 BABIP, 12/3 SB/CS

B: 247 PA, 13.0 BB%, 24.7 K%, .271/.368/.572, .312 BABIP, 11/1 SB/CS

A does have an elite tool, B is more solid across the board. But this season, A has been a public scouting darling, B an afterthought. I understand why, somewhat, but I don't agree whatsoever.

scottt - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#402716) #
The Yankees delayed the start of their games against Boston by one hour.
There was a light drizzle.
Eventually they started and the rain did nothing but intensify until they played the 6th inning in the pouring rain.
The bottom of the 6th must have lasted over 40 minutes.
A fan nailed Verdugo in the back with a baseball, between the half innings, I think.
I don' think I've ever seen a player so upset. 
They finally stopped the game with the Yankees up 3-1.

In Washington, they stopped the game because of a drive by shooting outside the 3rd base gate.
That is not good. There is security inside the stadiums, but it doesn't extend outside. 

In Buffalo, we're down to another 7-inning doubleheader.
All those relievers and so few innings.

John Northey - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#402721) #
earlweaverfan - Lopez would be nice - even though he is currently on the 10-day injured list due to a right rotator cuff strain.  104 ERA+ lifetime, 135 this year, 126 last year.  Under control through 2024.  Funny - he was part of a trade to get David Phelps by the Mariners in 2017.  Fools gave up 4 prospects for a reliever, a good reliever but not a 'wow' one.  Pretty dumb move.

The trade simulator says he is worth 82.7 on their scale.  For comparison, Vlad is 187.8, Bo 151, Martin 50, Manoah 36.8.  I have trouble making a trade that works if we view Martin, Moreno, and Martinez as untouchable.  Hmm... Pearson, Kirk, Groshans, Grichuk works - the Jays would have to cover most of Grichuk's contract as well I'd suspect.  However, that does use up a LOT of the Jays depth.  Guess it depends how you see Martin and others doing as time goes by.  SWR is about the same value as Pearson now so you could do an either or thing.Moreno is far more valuable than Kirk right now so you could sub him for 2 of the others.  Can't imagine they'd really want Grichuk so you could sub Hiraldo for him I guess - Marlins would prefer prospects I'd think.
scottt - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#402722) #
Allgeyer DFAed.
Valera up.

Anyone hurt?

hypobole - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#402724) #
The 2 prospects i referenced are Jarren Duran and Kevin Smith.

Duran just got called up to Boston. He has elite 70 grade speed and had a fairly linear progression until this years power spike. He's only OK in CF despite the speed and has a below average arm. But FG now has him at a 50 FV and slotted him between Moreno and SWR in their Top 100. MLB has him as the Sox #3 prospect, albeit in a weaker system than ours.

Smith is still a 40 FV at FG and the Jays #28 at MLB. His defence at 3rd is at least average and he can and does play SS adequately. I know that awful 2019 downgraded him severely, but at some point he has to be given credit for showing he's far better than the hitter he was 2 years ago.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#402725) #
Good Move, Valera is more versatile and useful than Davis.

hypobole - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#402726) #
Davis should be optioned if no one is IL'ed.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#402727) #
I take all prospect rating with a large grain of salt
John Northey - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#402728) #
Kevin Smith has had a great year - 271/368/562 - almost as good as Tellez did in AAA.  A good reminder that AAA is not the majors.  Jose Ramirez in Cleveland has hit 261/347/518 good for a 130 OPS+ - superficially on the surface they look similar but hitting that well in AAA is not the same as doing it in the majors.  Just ask Rowdy Tellez.  Lifetime in the minors Smith has hit 264/323/484 and is in his age 24 season.  Ramirez at 24 was in his 5th ML season and had a 145 OPS+, 3rd in MVP voting.  There really isn't a comparison here.  Smith might be a regular in the majors someday, Ramirez is one of the most valuable guys around (2.9 WAR this year so far).  Hey, if Cleveland's GM wants I'd happily send him Smith and even a couple others for Ramirez.  Also remember, a 130 OPS+ in Jays land is somewhere between Bo (123) and Marcus (139). 

Now, given odds are that Cleveland won't trade him, would I call up Smith to play at 3B?  Maybe.  But I think Biggio/Espinal are doing OK right now, and I wouldn't bet on Smith improving it unless an injury happens.

Bottom line?  Right now the Jays #1 focus has to be the pen, #2 the rotation.  I see 3B as next on the list (sOPS+ of 92, LF is worse at sOPS+ of 90, as is DH 88, CF 83, and CA 82 but CF is fixed in theory with Springer, CA is looking better and we have Kirk ready once healthy, DH is a rotation now with Tellez gone, leaving 3B and LF to fix..  Teoscar has hit horrible when in LF (571 OPS), while Gurriel has been OK at 96.

FYI: sOPS+ is split OPS+ how the player does vs the league in that split of stats.  IE: a sOPS+ of 100 at catcher means you are hitting the same as the league average catcher.  Makes Vlad's 193 sOPS+ at 1B all the more impressive as 1B tends to have many great hitters.  Rowdy at DH had a sOPS+ of 34.  Ouch.

Problem positions with sOPS+ for guys when there, listing with 20+ PA only.
3B: Espinal 120, Biggio 91, Panik was at 49 (ugh)
CF: Grichuk 94, Springer 87, Davis 43
CA: Kirk 127, McGuire 100, Jansen 67, Adams 17

So maybe Espinal deserves more time at 3B (I doubt he can keep this up, but give him a shot) and Kirk should be back up.  I doubt McGuire will keep that 100 sOPS+ for long.  Guys like Adams and Davis need to be kept away from the plate.  Also seems playing Bichette at DH isn't working well.
bpoz - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#402729) #
The trade deadline is July 30 not 31 for some reason.

Regarding closers in the pen or just a good pen I hope Atkins and his staff are seeing how TB does it. They are not chasing elite/expensive closers and manage to have a v good pen.
John Northey - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#402730) #
Weird - didn't see that Springer/Springer/Springer/Springer thing when typing it out.

Did not see Breyvic Valera coming up.  Davis being optioned, then made the 27th man for today makes sense.
scottt - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#402731) #
Seems weird. They could have had Valera up as the 27th man in the second doubleheader.
mathesond - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#402733) #
Gurriel bringing the power today.
scottt - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#402734) #
They won't use Davis to move Springer off center or Grichuk off right.
That makes him nearly worthless on this roster--left field defensive replacement.

Springer has played lots of games in right field, 9 in 2020, 59 in 2019, 80 in 2018, 78 in 2017...
He's only played one game in left field, back in 2018.
Apart from Gurriel, nobody on this team wants to play left field.
Not Grichuk. Not Springer. Not even Biggio who has 37 games in RF and only 1 in LF.
Grichuk's arm isn't special and Biggio's is below average.
Another oddity, I think.

Let's give the bullpen a blow?
Why? They haven't pitched since last week and they have Monday off.

I wonder if Valera will get into a game before he's DFAed.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#402735) #
When I see Mark Shapiro's haircut, I think of Jimmy Hoffa.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#402736) #
As long as it's not his choice of footwear.
Magpie - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#402737) #
Shapiro seemed positively giddy. For him, anyway.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#402740) #
So this lineup is pretty good.
Kasi - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#402744) #
Folty is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league and is very homer prone. I’m glad we’re beating a very bad Texas team but I’m waiting til we can do the same to Boston or Tampa.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#402745) #
And yet he had only one other start even remotely like this one this year - one against the Dodgers where he allowed 8 runs and 3hr. In fact, he hasn't given up as many runs or home runs this year as he had today.

I think you can put that saddle down, Kasi - this horse isn't in any condition for a ride today.
Magpie - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#402746) #
Foltynewicz had given up more HRs than any pitcher in baseball before the sun came up this morning, and as the runner-up is his own teammate I think his spot is safe. Back when he was an all-star, just three years ago, he was one of the better pitchers in the NL at keeping the ball in the yard.
John Northey - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#402747) #
Boy since 2015/16 Texas has gone on hard times vs the Jays.  25-2 over these 3 games.  Wow.

Over the past 5 years the Rangers have been within 20 games of first only once, last year when they finished last in the AL West, 14 out in just 60 games.  A 481 winning percentage (78-84 record) is their best result.  Right now they are 20 1/2 games out and dead last in the West.   Only Baltimore and Arizona are worse than the Rangers right now.  Jays are tied for 10th in MLB with the Mets right now.  6 1/2 behind Boston, 3 out of the wild card, best team not in playoff position at the moment.
Kasi - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#402748) #
Until we can beat some good teams I’m just going to hold my high fives here. We should beat bad teams and hitting more home runs off the guy who has given up the most home runs in baseball doesn’t impress me. If we lose two out of three to Boston we’ll see very quickly how people will forget any good will from this series.
Cynicalguy - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#402749) #
If Jose Ramirez is available, trading one of Martin, Groshans, or SWR as part of a package wouldn't be a bad trade.

Ramirez is a switch hitter and plays above average defence at 3B and is under contract for 2 more years at 11M option for 2022 (2M buyout) and 13M option for 2023, allowing the Jays to spend more on pitching free agency. He would bring more balance to a righty heavy lineup and bolster the defence at 3B for the next 2.5 years. If we don't sign Semien next year, we can just move Biggio to 2B and not have a hole on the field or lineup at 3B. This is the kind of player the Jays should target to improve run prevention and strengthen the lineup not just for the short term, but the medium term.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#402750) #
It's not like the offense hasn't performed against good teams: the sOPS+ against 500+ teams is 119. Boston in particular has been murdalized at a rate of 147.

Did they do what they were supposed to by whalloping Folty? Yup. But they did it with an unrivaled gusto, it feels like an odd time to go "oh yeah? Wait for krmughphlindurg..."
Kasi - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#402751) #
Kaitlyn McGrath at Athletic went over it quite well. Close and late almost no worse team in the majors. (Just Pitt and Detroit) Run differential and total runs stats are nice and all but at the end of the day wins and losses is what matters. No one is going to care about differential if the Jays either miss the playoffs or lose in a wild card game. These next two series against Boston are quite important to me because if the Jays don’t win them I think both Jays lose any chance to win the division and will be much more quiet at the trade deadline and won’t improve the team as much for the stretch run. I do think we are a better team than them and I hope they go out and prove it this week.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#402752) #
Part of being a good offense is not letting it get close late in the first place. It's such a narrow way of looking at things, and can be so susceptible to signal-noise issues. Alternately, maybe their first pitch approach or something makes them more susceptible (I'm making that part up), but to look at that as the disproportionate reason for losing vs the bullpen that was blowing 4 run leads seems like an interesting choice.

And on that note, I'm putting the club down and walking by this horse.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#402753) #
It's frustrating that the team doesn't have a better record, given their run differential, but they're still well in contention for a postseason spot. If the Red Sox lose tonight (they're behind 2-0 after 3), the Jays will be 6 back and only 4 back in the loss column.

Currently the Jays are only 2.5 games behind Oakland for the second WC spot (they're actually tied with Oakland in the loss column) and 5.5 games behind Tampa for the first WC spot.

Even if the team misses the postseason this year, they're strong enough that the race should be a good one. They are also well positioned to make a forward-looking trade or two that should help them beyond this year. And they have a decent payroll and a number of good prospects that should be ready to contribute soon. So there is reason for optimism.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#402755) #
"So there is reason for optimism."

Abolutely!, even if the Jays do not make a significant trade this July - Sometimes I think fans spend so much time complaining that they miss the Joy of a wonderful season - I know I thoroughly enjoyed the 1983-93 run even with some painful misses.
scottt - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#402757) #
Boston comes to town with a 6.5 game lead and having used 4 relievers today.
Boston has a tough schedule ahead of them and no money to spend if they want to stay under the luxury tax.
They've also used Eovaldi and E-Rod.

hypobole - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#402759) #
Jays 6 games over .500 for only the 2nd time this season. The other was exactly 2 months ago after giving the Red Sox an 8-0 drubbing.

Not going to mention how the next 6 games after that went. Suffice it to say the last thing we want is anything close to a repeat of that little stretch.
uglyone - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#402760) #
Actually the Sox only have a 6.0gm lead.

7gms against them in the next 11 days. 10gms against them in the next 21gms.

Now's the time.
uglyone - Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#402761) #
And those 10gms are the last games we have against the Sox this year.
Hodgie - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#402762) #
Out scoring a team by 23 runs in 23 innings is impressive regardless of the opponent. But hey, that clutch hitting ….
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#402764) #
It is remarkable how many sensational second-halves carry teams into the playoffs.

In 2015, the Blue Jays finished 42-18 in the final 60 games. (By the way, so did the Cubs.)

hypobole - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#402766) #
Next 10 games will be huge. 7 vs the Sox sandwiched around 3 with the Mets. Don't face Eovaldi or Rodriguez until the final 2. deGrom on the IL. Miss Stroman, but get Walker.

7-3 puts us 10 over, 8-2 12 over. That should signal Atkins to be aggressive at the deadline.

scottt - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#402769) #
Maybe it's the other way around? Do you upgrade from Gurriel or Grichuk or Espinal if they hit well or if one of them goes into a slump? Do you move Matz to the pen in favour of another starter if he struggles or if he gives you 2 more shutouts?

I'd be fine with just one high leverage reliever.

hypobole - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#402770) #
Vlad and Semien have been our best hitters this year. 197 and 136 OPS+. No surprise.

But 3-4-5? Whoa. One is not at all like the other 2.
Teoscar 125 OPS+
Espinal 122 OPS+
Bo 121 OPS+

On one hand Espinal's been sheltered against RH pitching and his team-leading .389 BABIP can't be sustainable. On the other hand, his numbers against RH pitching are actually better than LH. And he seems to be improving as a hitter, which may help offset at least some of the inevitable BABIP drop.
uglyone - Monday, July 19 2021 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#402773) #
It's always helpful to do a bit of babip math.

Take 80pts off Espinal's babip and he has a .294obp and a .355slg for a .649ops.

Which is, unsurprisingly, exactly what the projection systems guess will happen going forward.
Rangers at Blue Jays, July 16-18 | 91 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.