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All five affiliates held a lead at one point but only two wound up in the winner's circle Tuesday.

Buffalo 14 Syracuse 1

Home runs by Kevin Smith, Cullen Large, Richard Urea, Tyler White and Alejandro Kirk powered the Herd to an easy win over the Mets. Kirk had four hits and Large had three, finishing a triple short of the cycle. Riley Adams doubled, singled and walked and Kevin Smith also had two hits and a base on balls.

Bowden Francis had a no-hitter going until Albert Almora Jr. homered to start the seventh. Francis walked just two hitters and struck out seven over seven innings. Tyler Chatwood and Travis Bergen worked a shutout frame apiece.

Reading 9 New Hampshire 8

The Fisher Cats pissed away 6-0 and 7-6 leads in their loss to the Fightin' Phillies. Jordan Groshans had three hits and a walk while Otto Lopez got on base five times with a double, three walks and a hit by pitch. Chavez Young homered and walked while Reggie Pruitt had two hits, two RBI and two stolen bases. Austin Martin drew three walks. Vinny Capra singled and walked.

Maximo Castillo pitched four shutout innings but gave up a three-run homer in the fifth, finishing an out shy of five innings. He gave up five hits and three walks while striking out four. Will McAffer, Brody Rodning and Emerson Jimenez all gave up runs with Jimenez getting the loss. Jon Harris pitched 1-1/3 scoreless frames.

Everett 6 Vancouver 5 (11 Innings)

The C's fought back from 3-2 and 5-3 deficits but came up short against the Mariners affiliate. All five Vancouver hits came from the top three in the order with Luis De Los Santos hitting a leadoff homer while Tanner Morris and Spencer Horwitz had two hits apiece. Morris drove in three. Philip Clarke and D.J. Neal walked twice.

Paxton Schultz allowed 13 baserunners on 10 hits, two walks and a plunk over five innings but only gave up three runs, two of them coming on a home run. He struck out four. Sean Mellen and Justin Maese combined for four shutout innings in relief. Cobi Johnson gave up three runs in extra innings to take the loss.

Lakeland 7 Dunedin 3

Dunedin was up 3-1 after one inning before the Tigers affiliate scored six unanswered runs. Harrison Ray and Steward Berroa had two-hit nights with Ray stealing his 14th base and Berroa swiping bags 26 and 27. P.K Morris, Zach Britton and Addison Barger had doubles with Morris and Britton taking one for the team. Hugo Cardona singled, walked and stole a base. Dasan Brown was 0-for-5 and Orelvis Martinez was 0-for-4 with a walk.

Naswell Paulino was nicked for three runs (two earned) on three hits, including a two-run dinger in three innings. He walked one and struck out five. Wilgenis Alvardo took the loss as he was charged with four runs (three earned) and had a WHIP of 3.00 on seven hits and five walks over four innings. Elixon Caballero pitched two shutout frames.

FCL Blue Jays 6 FCL Tigers East 3

J.J. D'Orazio's three-run home run in the fifth inning capped off a four-run rally as the FCL Jays came from behind to win their 10th game in 16 tries. Jhon Solarte's sacrifice fly tied the game before D'Orazio's dinger. Rainer Nunez had a three-hit day that included two doubles and Gabriel Martinez also put three notches in the hit column. Will Robertson went 1-for-3 with a walk, a stolen base and two runs scored. Jose Rivas had a hit and was plunked. Rikelvin De Castro had a double.

Colton Laws struck out one in a 1-2-3 first inning.Bejardi Meza worked around a hit, a hit by pitch and two walks to put up a couple of bagels. Kendry Rojas served up a two-run dinger and gave up three runs on three hits and two walks with two punch outs over 1-2/3 innings. The win went to Guillermo Villasmil who stranded two runners and pitched 2-1/3 shutout innings of two-hit ball with one walk and one whiff.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Otto Lopez, New Hampshire

2. Alejandro Kirk, Buffalo

1. Bowden Francis, Buffalo
Mets Bow Down To Bowden | 28 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#402986) #
Atkins said that Kirk remains "very much on our radar".
scottt - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#402987) #
Manoah has graduated from prospect status at mlb which has brought Samad Taylor up to spot 30.
Yeah, their ranking feels a way out of date, especially with Zeuch at 25 and Allgeyer at 29.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#402990) #
Whenever he's on the field, Jordan Groshans continues to impress offensively and I think will make an exellent future 3B - I'm mystified why so many seem to include him in trades - I think it would be a mistake to move on from Groshans.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#402995) #
Groshans being included in theoretical deals is just a product of the circumstances, where Jays fans want the team to get better now. Prospect lovers get enamored by MiLB stats, so there's been a noticeable uptick in Moreno and Martinez's supposed untouchableness online. Pearson, who was untouchable in the spring, is now touchable. Manoah isn't going anywhere, Martin still has the reputation, and Kirk is wanted for the MLB club. That leaves Groshans and SWR as the Top 100 guys fans can build a deal around.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#402996) #
There's also the issue that Groshans can't seem to stay on the field for more than a week at a time. Who knows if that is all just bad luck or something else?
uglyone - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#402997) #
I think Groshans and Martin are different than the other top prospects as neither have yet put up legit elite prospect performances.

Whereas all of Pearson, SWR, Kirk, Moreno, and now Orelvis have.

Moreover, neither Groshans and Martin, despite having nice all-around talents, really possess any super-loud tools to dream on, offensively or defensively. They don't throw an easy 100mph like Nate, nor do they look likely to stick at an elite defensive position like Kirk/Moreno.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#402998) #
And obviously include Manoah in the group with elite prospect performances now on their track record, with his fantastic year so far this year.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#402999) #
This year the FSL and FCL stats are confusing to me because of robo umps and other factors.

O Martinez's HR power is easy to understand.

Youth allows me to accept good vs bad pitching by Sem Robberse.

I value bb/K ratio. Vlad, Jansen and Kirk were elite in that regard. The FCL has a few of our prospects having elite bb/k ratios. Our FCL players are all young and pretty much all Latin players. SSS and are these great ratios legit? Will have to wait for a larger sample.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#403001) #
Good point UO.

Pearson, Manoah, SWR, Moreno, Kirk and O Martinez are 6 extremely well performing prospects/players. 1 ML and 1 A-. Draft, trade and Int'l signings. Exceptional player acquisition.

Martin and Groshans have the following elite talent IMO. Their BB/K ratio. SSS because Martin just started his pro career. Groshans SSS is due to injury. This year both have incredible bb/k ratios, but only July. They need to stay healthy and prove that they can dominate AA. If the can do that I add them to the above 6.
PeterG - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#403003) #
Some consideration has to be given the fact that Martin is palying his first pro season at the AA level. This is more important than age due to the loss of a minor league season holding prospects back.
Cynicalguy - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#403007) #
Groshans and Martin have hype in the prospect industry and likely to have some teams overpay in trades. Ideally you like to give them another year and see if they perform, but then it's also likely their prospect shine might come off.

Right now I would say they are even in terms of expectations, the slash lines are decent, but they both strike out a lot, and Martin doesn't seem like he's going to have above average power....these are from short sample sizes.

Prospects are likely to not meet expectations than they end up meeting expectations, sometimes it's time to cash in those chips when you can. All the trades AA made at the 2015 deadline, there was some uproar about selling the whole farm, none of those prospects turned into stars, best one likely Matt Boyd...who not many prospect followers cared about at the time.

Thinking back, AA should have went more in like including Tellez in the proposed trade for Zobrist. That non-trade also destroys one of the narratives that AA didn't care about the future because he knew he was leaving at the end of the season.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#403008) #
Groshans and Martin have hype in the prospect industry and likely to have some teams overpay in trade

Maybe teams should have analytic departments, technology and scouts so they don't have to rely on MLB Pipeline to make their decisions.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#403010) #
Maybe they do, and therefore prospect hoarders shouldn't fret if the front office moves a couple kids to get better.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#403012) #
The FO will move some prospects. Sometimes the prospects that get moved reach their potential, but few will.

And because teams know their prospects better than anyone else, prospects that get traded historically under-perform comparably rated prospects that don't get traded.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#403014) #
Groshans missed most of 2019 due to injury and then all of 2020 due to no minor league season. At 21, him holding his own in AA is still very good, and he's gotten better as the season has gone on.

May: 57 PA, 90 wRC+, 12.3 BB%, 28.1 K%, .100 ISO
Since June 1: 126 PA, 139 wRC+, 10.3 BB%, 16.7 K%, .186 ISO

Him being injury prone is a possibility, though. Too early to tell right now.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#403016) #
As far as Groshans striking out "a lot", he's at 20.2% at age 21.

73% of all 174 AA qualified batters strike out at a higher rate.

But of those 174, there are only 2 20 yr olds, and 12 21 yr olds. Those 14 are elite prospects in most cases.

Of that group of 14, only Brice Turang 15.5%, and CJ Abrams 19.9% have struck out less than Groshans.

"A lot" is pretty arbitrary and open to individual opinion, but in my opinion, Groshans has very much not struck out a lot.

Cynicalguy - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#403020) #
I stand corrected Hyperbole...I didn't realize Groshans' strike out numbers improved as the season progressed. But the point I was trying to make is, Groshans or Martin shouldn't be untouchables if you are getting good MLB players back in a trade...someone like Jose Ramirez in a return.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#403022) #
Just want to add one point to the OP. The starting pitcher the Bisons knocked out in the 2nd inning (5 R, 3 HR) was Carlos Carrasco making his 2nd rehab appearance.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#403023) #
Prospect hording is understandable. So few make it that you want as many lottery tickets as possible. But if you can get 3 years of a quality ML player for a prospect you get the old 'bird in hand vs 2 in the bush' situation.

Over the years many Jays made the Baseball America top 100 lists - 21 of them cracked 10 WAR, 12 had 20+ (WAR pre-2021). Best was Roy Halladay (3 times, peak #12), then John Olerud (#3), Carlos Delgado (3 times, peak #4) - the only 3 to crack 40 WAR (where I put a line for marginal HOF). 30's were Chris Carpenter (three times, peak #28), Shawn Green (3 times, peak #6), Orlando Hudson (#81). 20's were Aaron Hill (twice, peak #66), Rios (#6), Werth (twice, #70 peak), Escobar (#67), Shannon Stewart (3 times peak #55), Vernon Wells (4 times, peak #4).

Vlad is the only Jay to make #1. Non-stars Alex Gonzalez, Travis Snider, Nate Pearson (so far), and Jose Silva made the top 10 for BA. So yeah, being a top prospect jumps your odds of being a star but it isn't a lock by any means. Jays have had 73 players make the top 100 124 times (most times is 4 for 4 players - Alex Gonzalez, Dustin McGowan, Nate Pearson, Vernon Wells). 8 haven't reached including Martin/Groshans/SWR so 5 flops. 17 had negative WAR (so flops), 3 at 0 WAR (so not valuable), 16 in the 0.1 to 4.9 range (includes Kirk, Bichette, Jansen, Gurriel Jr, Tellez, Vlad) - Vlad now at 7.2, Bichette 6.7, Gurriel 3.7, Jansen 2.2, Tellez 0.3, Kirk 0.6.

So out of 73 players making the top 100 prospects for the Jays, 3 near HOF'ers (all top 20's), 9 with 20-39 WAR - IE: very good multiple All-Star types. Those are the guys you hate to lose - 12 of 73 or 16.4%.

0 WAR or less or never made it? 25 of 73 or 34% (not counting Martin/Groshans/SWR as flops of course)
under 5 WAR? 16-Vlad, Bichette (both over it now) = 14 or 19% (not betting on Tellez, Jansen ever getting there, Gurriel might as might Kirk - I hope he does at least).

Bottom line? I'd put it as 50-50 odds of a top 100 making the majors, roughly a 1 in 6 odds of them being a Michael Young level mistake to trade away (12 out of 73) but the near HOF level guys are normally obvious (make the top 20, and no one ever talked of trading Halladay, Olerud, or Delgado when they were in the minors, or Vlad for that matter)
PeterG - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#403024) #
Maybe Bowden Francis can help the big team next year. He may be a pleasant surprise as Thomas Hatch has been.

I think all of you expecting a blockbuster trade are going to be disappointed. I don't see the Jays trading any top prospects at this time.......maybe in the off season.

It's more likely Jays will pick up what they can for disposable prospects it will be hard to keep and are playing well now....Kevin Smith and Samad Taylor. Reese McGuire is likely available and possibly a major league OF though I think that is more likely an off season move as well.
cascando - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#403027) #
I agree with PeterG that there are not likely to be any significant prospects traded. I think it's most likely that they'll move guys on the fringe of the 40-man right now, or minor leaguers who need to be added to the 40-man next year that aren't in their top 15 prospects in exchange for marginal bullpen upgrades.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#403029) #
When R Goins had to play regularly due to the injuries to Travis and Tulo I got the clear message that Atkins valued depth. Solarte and A Diaz were depth pieces that were picked up cheap. They added value by staying healthy and playing a lot. They also played at the level that they were supposed to.

Since then he has continued to add depth pieces. T Shaw in 2020. None I think in 2019. Maybe Sogard. For pitching I don't know what Buchholz, G Richards and Shoemaker were. Washed up, close to washed up and a decent pitcher if he can stay healthy. Thornton was a trade acquisition that had a chance since he was ML ready. All of this to add to Stroman and Sanchez. There were kids too like Borucki, SRF and Zeuch that were ready or close.

Stroman was the only one to contribute well. The rest were all in competition. Thornton's 1st season was a good #5 level pitcher IMO. So far, Zeuch, Kay, Hatch and Thornton himself have not come close to matching Thornton's 1st season.

I am tempted to blame Atkins for the pitching generally failing. But only SF got lucky by adding castoffs ( maybe 2nd tier FAs). We got lucky with Ray and Matz as 2nd tier FAs. LAD had great pitching. SD traded for it. I don't know why Milwaukee is so good. I expected TB and Oakland to be good with no clue as to how they would do it. I did not expect Boston and Houston to be so good.

Not going to go through the list of bad teams. Just mention NYY and Minnesota.

Gerry - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#403032) #
Elvis Luciano has been placed on the IL. Casey Lawrence has been sent down from Buffalo to take his place.

So in terms of the NH rotation, Luciano and SWR out. Lawrence and Quinones in.
Cynicalguy - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#403037) #
I believe the Jays are trying to make a blockbuster deal, whether that actually happens, who knows. Atkins keeps saying he wants to add one good player at the trade deadline...I read that as a good player long term piece with control, otherwise he would say they are trying to add a few good players if it's pure rentals.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#403066) #
Orelvis two more HR's. He is on fire.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#403068) #
He might be a top-20 prospect by the end of the year.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#403069) #
Kirk hurt?
Kasi - Wednesday, July 21 2021 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#403073) #
Might have just been pulled when Jansen got hurt. Maybe someone can check the time stamps but since Kirk was only DHing Id hope he didnt get hurt doing that.
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