Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Four games with the Red Sox in Fenway, and the Blue Jays are going with an unproven RH making his season debut and three southpaws. In Fenway.

I had cause to recently remember the great Boston Massacre, how the 1978 Yankees altered the pennant race by charging into Fenway and beating the Red Sox senseless for four consecutive games. But those Yankees were en fuego, those Red Sox were staggering. It was a different time. I do not expect a repeat of the Boston Massacre.

Let's change the subject.

We're all agreed that the Blue Jays are somewhere in the building (or rebuilding) phase (or cycle. Whatever.) I don't know how much agreement there is on where they are in that process, or - and this is possibly even more interesting to me - on where they should be.

So let's ask two questions. Where are they coming from? Where are they trying to go?

That I can tell you - in 2019 they went 67-95. That's where they're coming from. And they're trying to become a team that wins 90 plus games. From 90 losses - .444 ball - to 90 wins, which is .556 ball. How long does that usually take?

I'm a simple fellow. I went to the franchise pages on BB-Ref for all 32 extant MLB teams. I gleefully copied and pasted more than a century of W-L records into an Excel file. Man, I need a life. I found myself with 2744 seasons to play with. Which would be simply loads and loads of fun - but even I must acknowledge that the 11 years it took for the 1916 St Louis Cardinals to go from 90 losses to 90 wins is of very little relevance to our current issue.

So I sadly tossed aside all the seasons prior to the Jays' own entrance on the scene in 1977. Partially for that reason, but also because 1977 was the very first season of the modern free agency era. Free agency has obviously changed the team building process in a fundamental way, and it was seen to have done so immediately (there was this guy named Reggie, he'd been a free agent, there was a World Series that year.)

We're still left with 1276 seasons to play with. How many of those teams played at a 90 loss clip? Lots and lots. Since 1977, we have 308 seasons at a .444 winning percentage or worse. That might be a decent sample size. Alas, 50 of those seasons are still waiting for a 90 win season to end their time in purgatory. Of the other 258 seasons, here's how many years had to go by before the team reached the sunny, uplit plains of Genuine Goodness.

 1 - 20
 2 - 34
 3 - 43
 4 - 28
 5 - 21
 6 - 19
 7 - 19
 8 - 14
 9 - 11
10-   9
11- 10
12-  5
13-  5
14-  6
15-  1
16-  4
17-  3
18-  3
19-  1
20-  2
Well, by gosh. That most common interval is a mere three seasons. At that rate, the Blue Jays are due in... 2022.

By the way, those two 20 year intervals? Both belong to the AL's 1977 expansion cousins. One of them is the long interval between Seattle's inaugural season and 1997, when they finally won 90 games. The other, more shamefully, belongs to the Blue Jays - it's the grim period preceding the 2015 team. (I know the 1995 team actually lost only 88 games, but they played just 144 and I was using winning percentages because we've had some odd season lengths along the way. The 1995 Jays played at the clip of a 63-99 team.)

Happily, since 1977 every team had played at a 90 loss clip and every team has played at a 90 win clip. So here's how often each team has lost 90 games, and the number of seasons between each 90 loss season and that team's next 90 win season. (Again, all based on winning percentages.) At this moment, more than half the teams in the majors are still looking for that next 90 win season to wash away the taste of that last 90 loss season. I have used a dash to indicate those 90 loss seasons below, as I can't seem to find a symbol on my keyboard to represent infinity. Teams often put several 90 loss seasons together in groups of assorted lengths - I have marked off each group with square brackets.
AL East
Boston (3) - 1, 2, 1
NY Yankees (2) - 4, 3
Baltimore (16) - [7, 6, 3] [11, 10, 9, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] [-, -, -, -]
Tampa Bay (11) - [10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] 2
Toronto (8) - [8, 7, 6, 5, 4] [20, 11] -

AL Central
White Sox (9) - [5, 3] [4, 2, 1] [13, 7, 3, 2]
Cleveland (10) - [17, 16, 11, 9, 7, 3] 2 [4, 3, 1]
Detroit (14) - [17, 11, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] [-,  -,  -, -]
Kansas City (17) - 2 [18, 16, 14, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3] [-, -, -, -]
Minnesota (16) - [7, 6, 5, 2] [9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2] [8, 7, 6, 5, 3] -

AL West
Houston (6) - 3, 1 [6, 5, 4, 3]
Angels (9) - 2, 2 [10, 9, 8, 6, 3] [-, -]
Oakland (8) - [4, 3, 2] 6, [7, 3] [3, 2]
Mariners (17) - [20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 14, 11, 9, 5, 3] [-, -, -, -, -, -, -]
Texas (11) - [14, 12, 11, 8] [10, 8, 7] 2, [-, -, -]

NL East
Atlanta (12) - [14, 13, 12, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1] 2 [3, 2, 1]
Marlins (12) - [4, 3] [5, 4] [-, -, -, -, -, -, -, -]
Nationals (11) - 2 [13, 12, 11, 10, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2] -
Mets (15) - [7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1] [7, 6, 3] [3, 2] 6, -, -
Phillies (9) - [5, 4, 1] [12, 11, 8] [-, -, -]

NL Central
Cubs (13) - [4, 3, 1] 3 [14, 11, 9, 8, 6, 2] [4, 3, 2]
Cincinnati (9) - [8, 6] [9, 7, 3] [-, -, -, -]
Milwaukee (9) - 1 [3, 2] [14, 7, 6, 5, 4] 3,
Pirates (16) - [5, 4] [18, 15, 13, 12, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2] [-, -, -]
Cardinals (3) - 3 [10, 5]

NL West
Arizona (8) - 1, 3 [2, 1] [3, 1] [-, -]
Colorado (10) - [16, 10, 5, 4] [6, 4, 3] [-, -, -]
LA Dodgers (2) - 4, 4,
San Diego (14) - [7, 5, 3] [9, 3, 2] [8, 7, 2] [9, 4, 3, 2, 1]
San Francisco (8) - [8, 3, 2] 1, 1 [3, 2] 4

Well, that was fun! For me anyway.

Back to Jays and Red Sox. Do we have matchups? I think we do.

Mon July 26 - Hatch (---, -.--) vs Pivetta (8-4, 4.37)
Tue July 27 - Ray (8-5, 3.12) vs Richards (6-5, 4.99)
Wed July 28 - Matz (8-5, 4.34) vs Houck (0-2, 2.50)
Thu July 29 - Ryu (9-5, 3.44) vs Rodriguez (7-5, 5.23)

And, of course - happy 78th to a true rock star.

I hope we're not too messianic
Or a trifle too Satanic
We just love to play the blues
Blue Jays at Red Sox, July 26-29 | 328 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#403439) #
And, of course - happy 78th to a true rock star.

Around whom one is still advised to lock up their daughters. He sired his first child 51 years ago. His youngest child is not yet 5, younger even than his great-grandchild.

Gerry - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#403440) #
Social media has several reports that Kirby Snead has been called up.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#403441) #
He sired his first child 51 years ago. His youngest child is not yet 5, younger even than his great-grandchild.

As Winston Churchill once said, in a rather similar context - "makes one proud to be an Englishman."
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#403442) #
Kirby Snead has been called up.

And the DFA angel has come calling for Jacob Barnes.
scottt - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#403443) #
Barnes for Snead? Good enough.
scottt - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#403444) #
Yankees have traded a few prospects for Clay  Holmes, a lefty who walks a tons. 25BB/44K.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#403445) #
As we approach the trade deadline, I thought I'd mention that very few trades in recent Jays history have excited more comment, most of it outraged, than the Derek Fisher deal two years ago (for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, and Cal Stevenson.) It now stands revealed as a complete nothing-burger. Nothing to see, no reason to care.

So whatever happens - everybody be cool!
Chuck - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#403446) #
So whatever happens - everybody be cool!

You mean heed Jules' advice? Nah, not in these parts. Frothing is somewhere around DEFCON 3 at the moment, with DEFCON 1 clearly in sight.

greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#403447) #
On the flip side, be wary of ecstatic reactions to a trade. Remember the Jays-Marlins blockbuster of 2012? The one MLB considered vetoing because it was supposedly so one-sided? The signs hanging in the RC in 2013 taunting the Red Sox and John Farrell because of AA's recent coup? It can take years to provide an accurate assessment of a trade.
Nigel - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#403448) #
Hmmm, while I understand the point of assessing the actual outcome of a trade, hindsight evaluation of a trade is fraught with its own issues. If the Jays traded Vladdy for a bag of peanuts next week but Vladdy suffered a career ending injury shortly thereafter, it wouldn't make that a "nothing to see here" trade.
greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#403449) #
Bichette is quietly having an excellent season (3 WAR entering tonight's game). That was a huge clutch hit for the reeling Jays.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#403450) #
Coming into tonight's game, Bichette was 6-9 with a HR against Pivetta. Cora being thoroughly modern and probably not believing in those kind of matchups, apparently just let Pivetta talk him into letting him pitch to him.

Bet he never listens to him again.
Kasi - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#403451) #
Yeah agree with Nigel here. Prospects are two things. One is the actual players traded and how they worked out. The other is their value at time of the trade, akin to something like cash. Just because someone after you bought something turned on a lighter and set the wad of 20s aflame doesn't mean it had no value. Trading value for a better result still matters.
greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#403452) #
Opportunity cost cuts both ways. When the Jays took on the player contracts in the Marlins trade (Reyes, Johnson, Buerhle, Bonifacio), the cash they deployed for that purpose was cash they could no longer deploy in other ways.
greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#403453) #
Late-inning trigger warning: this is a one-run game between the Blue Jays and a division rival. Some Jays fans may find the outcome of this game disturbing.
uglyone - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#403454) #
Cimber and Richards have been pretty aces as jays.

Who knew that trading for good players could help a team?
dalimon5 - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#403455) #
The front office
Eephus - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#403456) #
I hate..... HATE the Red Sox so f###ing much...
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#403457) #
Richards ran out of gas about ten pitches ago.
uglyone - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#403458) #
He sure did. But I'd rather a tired Richards than most of the others. We don't have enough good pitchers.
Eephus - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#403459) #
I'm late tuning into this game... genuinely the first AB I see (with the annoying NSEN feed) is Richards giving up the dinger to Verdugo.

Gawd I despise the Red Sox. I'd be happier if the Yankees were in first place.
John Northey - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#403460) #
And another reminder of why the Jays need to add 1 or 2 more high end relievers if at all possible. Richards was fine for 3 or 4 batters, but pushing guys further than that is a mistake it seems in modern relief usage. Unless of course they are the long man in a blowout.
krose - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#403461) #
Guess Charley wanted to protect the new guy.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#403462) #
Just trade for SP and Closer already or sell. No point battling every week to give away leads.
uglyone - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#403463) #
At what point do they realize that Kirk is one of their best hitters?
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#403464) #
I'm assuming Montoyo wasn't going to use Mazya three days in a row and Borucki is just off the IL and he worked yesterday. He's paying the price for his rather quick hook of Stripling yesterday.
Eephus - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#403465) #


(this post has been censored for better enjoyment)

But seriously.
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#403466) #
Yeah that was fun.

If the Jays realize that they're actually allowed to win games by 1 or 2 runs it would be nice.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#403467) #
this is a one-run game between the Blue Jays and a division rival. Some Jays fans may find the outcome of this game disturbing.

How did he know, folks?
greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#403468) #
Assuming full health (big assumption), Springer should have been in CF and Kirk should have been the DH and #6 hitter.
92-93 - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#403469) #
Giving Springer a half day off is fine, but not PHing for McGuire with Kirk because the former had two hits tonight was bad.

Still hard to blame when the manager when the front office is letting this season piss away. Rentals really don't cost that much.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#403470) #
The targets on Montoyo are unfounded. This bullpen is complete trash. It’s inexcusable to construct a contending team around these bullpen players:


When that didn’t work they brought in these guys:

Edwards Jr

How is this not the same junk Atkins fielded with Drury, Hanson etc?
greenfrog - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#403471) #
The Jays have also been hurt by a weak bottom half of the lineup. Jansen/Gurriel/Grichuk/Biggio have had over 1100 PA this year and have combined for 0.8 WAR — less than Espinal’s 1.1 WAR in 130 PA. Add in Tellez’s subpar performance and that’s where a lot of games have been lost this year.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#403472) #
It’s inexcusable to construct a contending team around these bullpen players

Obviously, had Phelps, Merryweather, and Yates been healthy things might have been a little different (although expecting Merryweather and Yates to be healthy was certainly the act of an incorrigible optimist.)

But I don't think he thought he was constructing a contending team anyway. I think he thought he was constructing an improving team. A growing team.But not yet a real contender.
hypobole - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#403473) #
McGuire before his 2 hits had hit RH pitching better than Biggio, Gurriel and Grichuck this year. He's hit RH pitching well in his career. It was the inning before Kirk should have hit for Grichuk.
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#403474) #
It was the inning before Kirk should have hit for Grichuk.

In the top of the 8th? You give up your DH (Kirk's not going into CF) and your backup catcher (one of them can't stay in the game) while you're ahead?

That would have been different.
uglyone - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#403475) #

The Blue Jays have entered the 7th inning ahead or tied 59 times. They’ve lost 17 of those games. 38-10 when ahead and 4-7 when tied. 😔

— James G (@james_in_to) July 27, 2021
Magpie - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#403476) #
Prediction: Kirk is catching tomorrow night, McGuire gets the next two games. Kirk is definitely not catching Ryu on Thursday. Ray is by far the simplest guy on the staff to catch and as a ball player in general and a defensive player in particular, Kirk is green as the grass.
hypobole - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#403477) #
My bad, forgot Davis was sent down.

dalimon5 - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#403478) #
“ The Jays have also been hurt by a weak bottom half of the lineup. Jansen/Gurriel/Grichuk/Biggio have had over 1100 PA this year and have combined for 0.8 WAR — less than Espinal’s 1.1 WAR in 130 PA. Add in Tellez’s subpar performance and that’s where a lot of games have been lost this year.”

Super astute observation, easy to overlook.
uglyone - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#403479) #
Hard to bitch about the bottom of the lineup when they can't seem to realize Kirk is one of their best players. Nor when they have scorching hot kids like Smith to give a shot too.
John Northey - Monday, July 26 2021 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#403480) #
So true - Anyone with 1+ WAR at this point is an asset, 0-1 is a backup at best, sub 0 is a weight. 2+ is a key player. Stats before today.
  • Hitters: 2+: Vlad, Semien, Bo, Teoscar
    1-1.9: Espinal
    0.1-1: Grichuk, Gurriel, Springer* (due to injuries, adjust to 80 games and he'd be at 1.7), McGuire, Kirk, Biggio, Jansen
    0: Valera
    Sub 0: Hoying, Panik, Davis, Adams, Tellez (the worst at -0.7)
  • Pitchers: 2+: Ray, Ryu
    1-1.9: Manoah, Romano
    0.1-0.9: Payams, Matz, Stripling, Merryweather, Bergen, Cimber, Phelps, Cole, Saucedo, Mayza, Richards
    0: Allgeyer, Tice, Borucki, Barns
    sub 0: Castro, Dolis, Edwards, Kay, Chatwood, Pearson, Milone, Murphy, Beasley, Roark, Thornton, and dead last Zeuch (-0.6)
Doubt anyone there is a surprise. Maybe Espinal - he really needs more playing time to see if this is for real or if it is an illusion. Not like Biggio is earning his playing time lately. But clearly there is the big 4 then a lot of 'meh' in the lineup right now. Springer one can forgive due to his injuries (playing around a 3-4 WAR place if adjusted for playing time). Seems clear at this point the best lineup is having the big 4 plus Springer going 1-5 as is being done. 6-9 is a mess though, Espinal deserves playing time right now, then a mix/match of Grichuk/Gurriel/Biggio in LF/DH (or playing in the field for the DH), with the catchers sitting down there somewhere depending on situation/who is 'hot'.

Really, I find it hard to fault Montoyo on the lineup in any way beyond playing Biggio over Espinal and even that is understandable given past performance in 2020.

The rotation is a challenge but 3 very solid guys in Ray/Ryu/Manoah and a solid closer in Romano. It is the other innings that are an issue. Matz & Stripling appear to be the best for the rotation right now, but boy do we miss Merryweather and Phelps. I hoped Borucki would be a LOT better when he came back than he has been, but Saucedo, Cimber, and Richards (even with the 2 run HR today) have been good. We have 5 decent guys in the pen imo, but really need 2 more. IMO Ian Kennedy should be one of the cheaper closers available and the Jays should try to grab him (assuming a cost no higher than a C or maybe B prospect). Of course, we have no idea what Texas is asking and they might be smart to hold off until the Cubs trade Kimbrel.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#403481) #
I hoped Borucki would be a LOT better when he came back than he has been

He's been fine when he's not pitching to Pete Alonso, and getting Pete Alonso out really shouldn't be part of his job description anyway.

I think the try-outs are still going on, they're still finding out who can do what. Tonight we found out Trevor Richards is a one-inning guy. (He probably felt just fine when he went back out there, but it lasted about four pitches.) I'm not sold on him yet. Or Saucedo. Or whether Dolis get back to what he was in 2020. I feel reasonably OK about Cimber, Romano, Mayza, Borucki. I defnitely don't believe in anyone else. Hatch and Pearson can probably be decent relievers but I think they're still hoping they can start. Maybe next year, but I also don't think they're going to want quite as many "maybes" heading into next year.

The real issue for this team is starting pitching. As it generally is in this game. At some point, the Jays need some of these prospects to become major league starting pitchers.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#403482) #
3 very solid guys in Ray/Ryu/Manoah

Manoah's off to a nice start, but it's very, very early days and I'm not coming to any conclusions about what he is after 8 MLB starts. In 2018, Ryan Borucki was comfortably the best starting pitcher on a staff that included J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada. And he'd made quite a few more starts than Manoah. Twice as many.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#403483) #
Papa Was a Rolling Stone...

Games as DH:

20 - Vlad - 1.034 OPS
11 - Grichuk - .758
9 - Springer - .749
9 - Bichette - .608
7 - Gurriel Jr. - .465
6 - Hernández - .855
19 - Tellez - .501

7 other players have appeared as DH, each with 3 starts or less.

Collectively, DH has posted a .229/.305/.412 slash line, .717 OPS, and 90 OPS+.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#403484) #
Agree with Kasi and Greenfrog. Cash needs to be spent wisely.

Pitcher health has been a big problem this year as we are all aware of. Very good list of bullpen pitchers used this year. Thanks dalimon5. I would add a 19th in Cimber. The Jays may also add a few more this year. Just nitpicking, but if a starter cannot get to 5 IP on a fairly regular basis and is lasting 4 at best then he is a reliever IMO. Not going decently deep in a game is putting undue pressure on the pen which eventually shows up.

Plenty more to say about pitching. Roark and Chatwood.
smyttysmullet94 - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#403485) #
The problem is that teams place a value on players based off non-public metrics; you can't evaluate a trade based off this information unless you're privy to it. That leaves us with the option of evaluating a trade based off how the players panned out.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#403486) #
The A's dealt two 40+ prospects (according to Fangraphs) to the Cubs for Andrew Chafin. That's probably a reasonable barometer for a bullpen upgrade at this time. Chafin has a mutual option in 2022, which is extremely unlikely to be picked up (since how often do both the player and team feel that it is fair value?).

An equivalent package for the Jays is probably Kloffenstein and Kevin Smith.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#403487) #
"Collectively, DH has posted a .229/.305/.412 slash line, .717 OPS, and 90 OPS+."

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#403488) #
"An equivalent package for the Jays is probably Kloffenstein and Kevin Smith."

Deichmann is 26 with no defensive value and hasn't hit in the minors since single A, aside from a moderately above average line this year thanks to a .400babip.

He's not even a tellez. Not even a Riley Adams.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#403489) #
Chafin is a good lefty at the moment. Would Cecil/Loup be a decent comparison. How about Joe Smith? We traded J Smith for Pannone and Samad Taylor.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#403490) #
Thanks Magpie. I finally read your very good analysis.

Pythagoras W/L record. 1/2 run W/L record. Unbalanced schedule. All factors that require further analysis by us.

I wonder when the pen will start winning games for us. Comeback wins!! Weakest link in a chain.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#403491) #
Or the batters could get a key hit when we're behind, too, bpoz. On Sunday the Jays were behind by one run with the bases loaded and one out late in the game but Kirk could only muster a weak pop-up. I know hitting is hard, but good teams like the Red Sox and the Rays seem to get the key hit when they need it.

The Jays seemed to win a lot of one run games last year but this year it's just the opposite. I actually think the Red Sox aren't much better than the Jays, but the Jays don't have a player like Matt Barnes in the bullpen.
pooks137 - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#403492) #
Nice breakdown of the DH spot Leaside Cowboy.

I was really surprised when Jay Jaffe's Replacement-level Killers series over at Fangraphs last week included the Jays at DH (and was more surprised the Jays weren't included at catcher).

Your breakdown illustrated the problem much more clearly than Jaffe's blurb did. I read the Fangraphs piece and thought "maybe Vlad doesn't hit as well as a DH".

But in fact Vlad hits everywhere. It's just he can't play two positions at once or two spots in the lineup.

The key takeaway from the Jays' DH woes is

1) most hitters perform worse during days off at DH


2) somehow a slumping Rowdy Tellez was even worse at a Danny-Jansen-O-for-April level of bad during his 19 starts at DH
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#403493) #
3) Kirk should be in the lineup every day somewhere.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#403494) #
Rumors out of San Diego have Eric Hosmer being shopped. He was the signing that signalled the Padres intent to contend. But he's been almost worthless, with only a bit of a rebound (dead cat bounce?) last year. He's highly respected in the clubhouse and looked on as a leader. And Tingler keeps giving him far more playing time than he's worth. Preller is offering prospects for a team willing to take on his contract. Preller will almost assuredly have to retain salary in the deal; how much depends on how good the prospect package is.

Jays traded Kevin Pillar a few years back. As usual, he played hard every day. He hit 21 home runs. Bochy gave him over 600 PA's. He won the Willie Mac award, their internal MVP. For all that he had a 92 OPS+ and was worth 0.8 bWAR with San Fran. Zaidi non-tendered him.

Minasian had to release Albert Pujols to stop Madden from continually pencilling him into the lineup.

The Jays have a similar problem with Grichuk. He and Hosmer have almost the same playing time and hit about equally well. Grichuk provides more value defensively but that's about it. He's apparently very well respected in the clubhouse, plays hard and is the vet leader.

Since June 1, he's started 40 games, had 165 PA's and hit .214/.230/.415. He should be serving a Jonathan Davis role at this point. But Montoyo, like pretty well every manager with this type of player, keeps playing him far too much.

And I wonder if Atkins will do what he should do.

85bluejay - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#403495) #
Wait a minute hypobole, what about all those posters telling us what a great contract Grichuk was just a couple of months ago.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#403496) #
Part of the problem with Grichuk is his power. He should be a fourth outfielder, but he keeps getting added to the starting lineup because (perhaps unconsciously) the manager thinks, well, maybe he’ll hit a home run (or: he’s streaky, and he’s due for a hot streak).

As I mentioned earlier, the problem is bigger than Grichuk. The team has received poor production from the large number of PA provided by Grichuk, Gurriel, Biggio, Jansen and Tellez. This batch of mediocrity is easy to overlook because of the superstar-level production of Semien, Bichette, Vlad, Springer and Teoscar.

In 2021, the Jays somehow figured out the hard part, that is, building a core of elite position player talent. But they seem to have flubbed the easier part, namely, rounding out the rest of the roster with good-but-not-elite talent.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#403497) #
Well, Tellez is gone and Kirk has replaced Jansen for the time being at least. That same June 1st on timeframe I referenced for Grichuk, Gurriel has hit .280/.323/.483. And he has hit the past 2 seasons as well. So Gurriel may not be a problem at all, especially where he hits in the lineup.

That leaves Biggio and Grichuk, for now at least.
scottt - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#403498) #
Not a lot of teams have 5 all-stars at the top of their lineup.
Grichuk is streaky and he's an above average bat against lefties.
Gurriel has had OPS+ of 106, 127, 139 and he's currently at 92 for the year.  He had an awful April.
Biggio has had OPS+ of 113, 123 and currently sits at 87. One of the few left bats on the team.
None of these guys are terribly bad, just in slumps. 

Back in 2015, a guy like Encarnation could get hot and carry the team for a couple of weeks.
Tellez has gotten hot after leaving town.

At this point the division seems out of reach but the wild card odds are still very good.
One of Boston and Tampa will also have to settle for a wild card.
Given that they haven't played a single game in Toronto since 2019, the Jays are still in a pretty good place.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#403499) #
I have to think that just a little too much mental effort is being spent worrying about what is either the second or third best offense in all of baseball. Even the Astros write below average hitters into the lineup every day. It's always nice to make improvements, but I think there are more pressing concerns.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#403500) #
The big problem with Grichuk is he is super-streaky. April 839 OPS, May 804, June 666 (appropriate), July 608. In his career though August has been a very good month 888 OPS, as has September 781. So there is hope, which is what the Jays are holding onto I suspect. But I bet if someone asked for him in a trade they'd go 'OK, here he is'.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#403501) #
I do wonder if Biggio would hit better if he was handed the 2b job, and only had to focus on a position he plays well, instead of working on a position he's not great at, plus the OF. I see him as a solid 2b going forward, not Zobrist like jack of all trades. Something for next year I suppose.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#403502) #
Well, even Mark Shapiro has talked about improving the offense at the deadline, so the front office seems to be aware of the issue.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#403503) #
If this Jays team makes the playoffs 1st or a WC or wins 90 games I will admit that concluding this team cannot do that is a mistake I made.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#403504) #
"The Jays have a similar problem with Grichuk."

I don't think it's remotely similar. Grichuk is a fine 4th OFer so would still have a place on the team and it's not like Gurriel or DH have set world on fire. He's also owed $20M over 2 years which is a bit much but not significant. Hosmer is a bad 1Bman with no use for a contender and who really needs a backup 1Bman? Also, he's owed $60M over 4 years. Padres need to move Hosmer to create room for better players. Jays don't need to move Grichuk but need to upgrade generally.
92-93 - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#403505) #
Are they aware of the issue in their bullpen, and that it doesn't take much to acquire bullpen rentals?
mathesond - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#403506) #
I heard they were in on Cimber at one point, don't know what happened there.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#403507) #
Well they might try for Trevor richards.
tercet - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#403508) #
Don't worry, they brought up another LOGGY yesterday in Kirby Snead who happens to be a homophonic, covid denialist, covid truther, anti lockdown, anti vaxxer, anti mask, maga bro, pro aubrey huff, clueless braindead florida man moron with a criminal record who will save our bullpen.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#403509) #
Back to bashing grichuk.

Grichuk 97wrc+
Gurriel 89wrc+
Biggio 87wrc+
Tellez 65wrc+
Jansen 63wrc+

Makes sense.

The best thing is the people bashing him are the same people that tell us we need to use the DH in order to have the "flexibility" to get more of these bats in the lineup every day, instead of using the DH to do something insane like, I dunno, PLAY OUR BEST HITTERS MORE.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#403510) #
Glevin, you misunderstood my point completely. The similarity between all the players I mentioned wasn't their positions or contracts.

It's their veteran leadership that seemed to cause their managers to keep putting them into their starting lineups no matter how poorly they did.

Yes Grichuk would be a fine 4th outfielder, which is what I meant by the "Davis role". Except if Charlie is like other managers, he won't use Grichuk as a 4th outfielder, he'll continue to find ways to keep him in the starting lineup.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#403511) #
Ah yes over the first 2/3 of the season the FO finally found two decent middle relievers for super cheap.

Job well done chaps. Mission accomplished.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#403512) #
Wonder how people here would've reacted if the Jays had won the battle we hoped they would and got Ha-Seong Kim, and not chased down Semien, with his 206/265/342 line (70 OPS+), but thanks to fantastic defense has a 1.4 WAR.

Trade rumors says the Jays are still in on Gallo which seems odd on the surface, but might make sense - he is a better hitter than Gurriel or Grichuk and is under control for 2022. Sadly he is listed on the simulator as the most valuable Ranger thus expensive to get. I got a 'trade accepted' rank for Biggio, Gurriel, and Hiraldo (although a bit light according to the simulator, suggesting the price is higher). Grichuk is now listed as a net negative in value so I doubt he'll be mixed into any trade. Texas has a LOT of needs - only 4 guys with 100+ PA have an OPS+ over 80. So a guy like Biggio who can flip around depending on when prospects develop would be very valuable to them. Gurriel being able to play LF/1B now and previously playing infield positions would be a big asset to them too. Hiraldo I added in to fill in the value needed (he is in A ball playing 2B/3B and hitting 255/345/414 which is good but not 'wow'). I'd think the Jays would need to add a pitcher at some level to finish it off.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#403513) #
Grichuk by month:

126 wRC+
116 wRC+
76 wRC+
53 wRC+

Yeah, keep trotting him out there every day.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#403514) #
The problem is that is Grichuk for you. In August he could suddenly be the 126 guy or he could be the 53 guy. No one knows. I'd rather get rid of him as I like consistency or at least predictability. IE: That he will do well in late summer, but suck in April or vice versa. You can work with that, but this where you don't know when Grichuk will be good Grichuk or bad Grichuk is frustrating. If another team wants him they can have him imo. If he has his usual strong August but for someone else, so be it.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#403515) #
Since 2016, over 2614 plate appearances, Grichuk has a 100 wRC+ and .289 OBP. So far this season, he has a 97 wRC+ and .282 OBP. This is who he has been since his fluke 2015 season. Atkins thought he had a breakout in him, and he was wrong.

Even if you concede that's who he is, and yes he would make a fine 4th OF, the problem is he hasn't been used like one and likely will never be used like one as long as he's on this team and/or managed by Montoyo. Even if Springer began the season healthy, there's no doubt in my mind Grichuk would have played a lot more than Tellez. Montoyo so far has been very partial towards veteran players. Even Reese McGuire who doesn't have much service time still has more than Kirk, so they have to split time rather than starting Kirk as much as possible. Panik has to play more than Espinal, etc.

If you told me Grichuk would be used strictly as a 4th OF, I'd have no issues with him on the roster, but I don't see that happening. He's also trending downwards since the season began, while Gurriel for example has a 125 wRC+ in his last 207 PA.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#403516) #
Gallo to the Jays makes a lot of sense. He’s cheap, controllable through 2022, low risk (because he’s not under a long-term contract), bats left, is a good offensive player (despite the strikeouts), and plays RF well.

He would make the Jays dangerous in a wild-card game this year, should the Jays qualify.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#403517) #
The optics work both ways. To the ire of many, keep the manager in place. On the other hand, beef up this roster. Homecoming. The Revenge Tour 2021.

Agreed, a left-handed hitter is needed. Besides Dickerson.

electric carrot - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#403518) #
I have to say this team just seems destined to lose close games. It's sad. Best we can hope for now is the wildcard and a change in this team's fortune at just the right moment. I don't love Grichuk but he's not the problem. We need reliable relievers and a lot more luck too. I wouldn't sell the farm but anything half-decent on the RP side should be considered.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#403519) #
Jose Ramirez would be a terrific pickup. I'd be willing to trade Teoscar for him.
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#403520) #
And Magpie, I appreciate the historical argument that you make about how long it takes to turn a team around. At base though I think sometimes remarkable things happen that don't fit normal historical trends. And given the run differential I really think this team is better than the historical turnaround #s would steer us. Just a lot of things went right on the offseason pickups and with player development. I mean, they have the goods -- we can see it in the stats. Is it a mirage? I don't think so. Can they bring home the bacon? Probably not. Is the potential there. I would say yes. When the opportunity presents you got to take a shot at it I think, no matter if the historical trends don't shine down on you in a benevolent glow of historical certitude. This is baseball. Nothing is certain. It's 75% random. What looks good next year may be the mirage.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#403521) #
Maybe the Guardians would do Grichuk+prospects for Ramirez. Handsome Randal has raked vs them the past couple seasons.
mathesond - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#403522) #
I suspect the Guardians would be looking for one of Moreno or Kirk, plus Orelvis, and Pearson. That might get them to the table, anyway. Probably need to add someone like Gurriel or Biggio though.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#403523) #
I'm not a fan of small samples.  From 2019-21, Grichuk has 1.6 fWAR over 1232 PA.  That's an entirely ordinary bench player.  Over the same span, Gurriel Jr. has 3.0 fWAR over 900 PA.  That's an average regular. 

If you used Grichuk as your 4th outfielder and Kirk as your everyday DH and occasional catcher, it would be fine.  The rotating DH idea is a poor idea with the talent on hand.  And that's where your GM and your Manager need to have some discussions. And as for the pitching, the Blue Jays ERA and xFIP are 4.04 and 4.08.  Boston's are 4.06 and 4.08.  You can win with those numbers with a very good offence.  Incidentally, if you prefer the more specific batted-ball data from xERA, the individual numbers are  good:

Romano- 2.68
Mayza- 2.90
Cimber- 3.24
Manoah- 3.32
Ray 3.60
Richards 3.81
Matz- 3.95
Dolis- 4.15
Saucedo- 4.17
Ryu- 4.26
Stripling- 4.66

On the subjective side, I am most worried about Biggio.  He looks to me like his adaptation to the neck/shoulder injury is a work-in-progress.  It's been a recurring thing over the better part of a year, and I hope that he's able to find a way to manage and prosper.  It might be best for him to not play third base at all and just play LF, 2B and 1B where throwing isn't of the same importance as third base and right-field. 
Nigel - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#403524) #
In a purely theoretical world, in a series of transactions, I would trade Semien plus some significant prospect capital for Gallo. I'd comfortably roll with Biggio at 2B and Espinal at 3B as the basic line-up for the remainder of 2021-22, with Kirk consuming as many DH ABs as your manager can stomach. Then invest heavily in 3 additional pitchers, now or in the off season (whether starters or high leverage relief arms). Almost none of that will actually happen but I think some variant of asset reallocation along those lines is required.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#403525) #
Texas is rebuilding - why would they be interested in Semien? A Semien trade has to be to the Dodgers for Lux or something.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#403526) #
Paul, I wasn't meaning a trade of Semien to Texas, I meant the above as a net of trades involving some other team(s). None of that was meant seriously, as a likely outcome, just a way to view some of the roster imbalance that has contributed, along with bad luck, to the team's record.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#403527) #
Ah okay, apologies Nigel.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#403528) #
Jose Ramirez would be a terrific pickup. I'd be willing to trade Teoscar for him.

To which Cleveland would say: yeah, and who else you gonna throw in?

Ramirez has had 7-WAR seasons and his 2020/2021 combined is 5.5. He is owed a paltry $24M for the next two seasons.

Hernandez's 2020/2021 combined is 3.7 after years of sputtering to finally get to this level.

They are the same age.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#403529) #
No solid pitching in our entire staff beyond 3 players and everyone shifts focus to Grichuk, as if to call out posters who defended him. They aren't evaluators on this board who should be called out if their "stay at home opinion" or prediction turned out not to be accurate.

How the $%#$ is this FO going to contend rest of season and compete with the big boys with this pitching staff? What is the plan for 2022-2024? Are they really going to put their chances on SWR, Pearson and Alek Manoah to be a front 4 with Ryu?
Kasi - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#403530) #
Obviously they'll have to sign someone in FA or make a trade. There are certainly a number of pitchers available this offseason. Is Ryu + Manoah + FA Starter Stripling + etc ideal? (assuming they don't resign Matz and Ray is either not resigned or is the FA pitcher) No but that is still better than what Boston has run out there this season and it is not like Boston is crumbling.

Jays could also make trades for young starters to compliment that, but that will require taking away from the MLB or close to major league ready hitters. Perhaps if the Jays are enough out of it they trade Semien for such a player.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#403531) #
If Grichuk is sometimes needed in CF for load management purposes (Springer), then it might be better to trade Gurriel if an impact corner OF like Gallo is acquired.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#403532) #
One positive is that the Jays declined to sign JBJ in the off-season. He has had an awful 2021.
scottt - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#403533) #
Even if the Jays get swept in Boston, they are not trading Semien or Ray.
It's too late for that.
They will go home and try to win as many games as possible and that's going to tell them what moves to make over the winter.

Texas will want prospects, not guys with 1 or 2 years left.
I'm not a fan of Gallo. He's a decent hitter but he's also a rally killer who doesn't get on base.
He's got 6 doubles this year, that's 1 more than Jansen.
He's great in those 30-something games in which he hits a HR, the rest of the time he's probably a net minus.
Does he balances the lineup if he's hitting in the bottom?
He plays a good RF, but he's not replacing Hernandez.  Can he play center?

Cleveland is not interested in trading Ramirez. Not until this winter at least.

The DH is not a question of flexibility.
The Yankees have Stanton at DH and can't rest anyone and they've set injury records.
Springer has played 162 games in 2016. Since then, 140, 140, 122, 51/60 and 29 this year.
Guerrero has never played as much baseball and ran out of fuel in 2019.
Bichette has 424 PA, up from his mark of 212 in 2019. He's been injured in 19 an 20.
So, ideally you want a left bat who can play 4 or 5 games a week, maybe pinch hit once the other days.
I think they went after a guy who fit that mold...
Not everybody can do that effectively.

Paul D - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#403534) #
I do wonder if it's possible that the Jays ask Semien if he's okay with being traded, particularly to a team like Oakland. That keeps their good rep with free agents while also improving the team.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#403535) #
[Gallo's] a decent hitter but he's also a rally killer who doesn't get on base.

Gallo has his limitations but getting on base isn't one of them. Fifth best On Base Average in the AL this season.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#403536) #
One positive is that the Jays declined to sign JBJ in the off-season. He has had an awful 2021.

Well, he is losing the fWAR race to Springer- 0.1 vs. 0.6.  And like Springer, he's looked more like himself the last month with the bat.  His offence has indeed been awful overall, but he hasn't let it affect his glove.  Milwaukee is comfortably in first place in the NLC, with their team ERA comfortably outperforming FIP and xFIP.  Bradley Jr. has been a big part of that.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#403537) #
Really interested to see what the Giants do - having an unexpected brilliant run with an aging roster - how much prospect capital do they use to augment the team when that young talent will be badly needed in the coming seasons.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#403538) #
It's true that JBJ's defense has been a boon to the Milwaukee pitchers (in the comparatively soft NL Central), but that also highlights just how bad his offense has been to produce 0.1 WAR net.

Springer has 0.6 WAR in 123 PA (abbreviated season due to injury). JBJ has 0.1 WAR in 323 PA. So it's not exactly a apples-to-apples comparison.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#403539) #
Greenfrog, it's my way of saying "wait 'til the season's over".  It's not yet clear how the $/WAR will work out; my money is on Springer winning this year's battle but that it will be close.  One of the comments made about JBJ was that he was too old and susceptible to injury; it turned out that so far Springer has been the one to wrestle with the injury bug. 
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#403540) #
It is fun to look at guys the Jays did sign and who they debated (at least as far as we know they debated)...
  • Springer: injured a lot, only 123 PA so far, 0.7 WAR
  • Semien: 432 PA, 4.9 WAR - the bargain of the winter it might turn out.
  • J.T. Realmuto: 273 PA, 2.0 WAR, pretty much what one would've expected.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr.: 289 PA, -0.2 WAR, thanks to a 50 OPS+. Ugh.
  • Michael Brantley: 314 PA 2.9 WAR, dang, imagine if he had signed here - we thought he had for a day or so right after Springer did.
  • Trevor Bauer: 2.5 WAR in 17 starts, now lord knows due to his sexual assault charge
  • DJ LeMahieu: 373 PA, 1.1 WAR, the expected normal aging curve hitting him at age 32. No shock.
  • Tomoyuki Sugano: 3.29 ERA in Japan over 9 games, 52 IP. Probably for the best as odds are that'd be a 4+ ERA here.
  • Ha-Seong Kim: 219 PA, 1.4 WAR but all on defense as his OPS+ is just 70.
  • Taijuan Walker: 18 games, 94 IP 0.8 WAR. Looked a lot better before his last 2 starts.
  • Liam Hendriks: 1.3 WAR 24 saves for the White Sox. Dang it. He'd look really good as a Jay right now.
I think those were the main guys. Walker looked like a mistake to skip until he got beat up those latest 2 games, Brantley is a 'oh so close' guy - wonder what would've made him come here over Houston? Bauer is a 'thank goodness the Jays didn't get into that mess'. Realmuto would've been nice but we have so many catchers as is it is nutty. Hendriks might have been the biggest impact if he was here, go figure - I never like paying for closers but in the end he is showing he might be worth it. Very glad to have Semien instead of LeMahieu or Kim right now, but might not feel that way in 2022.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#403541) #
If JBJ can perform in the 2021 postseason the way he did for Boston in 2018, that will make the signing more than worth it for Milwaukee.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#403542) #
Brantley to me is the biggest miss. That would have been huge to give this lineup more balance which might mitigate some of this late game weaknesses we have. Hendricks sure would be nice but there is a dozen other relievers we could have gotten who would have done nearly as well for a portion of the price. Just go look at Seattle's hobbled together group.

I don't miss Walker. Just don't think he has the stuff to thrive in this division. Playing the NL East and Central though he can thrive in. I think Ray was prioritized mainly for the higher ceiling.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#403543) #
Are the Jays really buyers? Two games above .500, 4.5 games back of a one-game wild card, fourth in the division and 10.5 games back. Yes, our run differential is good, but the games have already been played, and we're chasing teams that have performed similarly (Boston and Tampa Bay in the division, Oakland and Tampa in the wild card).

Winning the division seems pretty slim, and even the wild card is definitely an uphill climb.

After reinforcing the bullpen with Cimber and Richards, the team doesn't have any massive, easy-to-address holes. But we do have two of the best rental players on the market in Ray and Semien.

Trading Semien would allow Biggio to go back to second base, where he's much better defensively, and the team could roll the dice with Kevin Smith and Espinal at third. Losing Ray would mean Hatch or Kay filling the fifth rotation spot.

I think the balance favours the Jays selling. If the stars align, you could try to sell Ray & Semien and trade for someone with control through at least 2022, such as Gallo.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#403544) #
Why on earth would a team trade controllable top level MLB players for Semien or Ray? If they’re traded it will be for prospects, not players like Gallo,

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#403545) #
Only way Ray or Semien go is if it is a multi-team deal where the Jays get something really good to help now, another team on edge of playoffs that needs Ray or Semien gets that guy, and the 3rd team (someone out of it) gets prospects. A very unlikely thing to happen, but it could.

Right now I think the Jays almost have to trade Biggio just to take away a toy that the manager loves to use like Panik. Montoyo picks his favorites, as all managers do. However, right now, while I love Biggio and remember cheering on his dad even though I've always been a Jay fan, it is time to play Espinal more. A lot more. At least until he drops a bit with the bat or glove. Screw the left/right crap. A 116 OPS+ and very strong glove vs a weak glove and 87 OPS+ makes this a no-brainer until things start to shift.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#403546) #
My predictions.

Ray and Semien stay.

Atkins will add a bullpen piece, probably a rental.

He will try to deal for a controllable position player, with someone on the major league roster as part of the return.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#403547) #
Are the Jays really buyers?

Well, I don't think they're offering Pearson, Kirk, and Groshans for Scherzer. They're not going to be buyers like that. I don't think they're sellers either - the teams that can use players like Ray and Semien will be offering prospects rather than useful major leaguers. I don't think Atkins wants more prospects badly enough to tell the rest of the team that he's giving up on them. So I assume he's looking for upgrades around the edges, more of what he's been doing - relief pitchers, LH batters.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#403548) #
Yeah I expect:

80%: Adding a rental pitcher (relief or starter) or a low impact rental with term. Maybe 2 of these deals.
10%: Adding a major piece with term. (like a Gallo or Berrios)
5%: Pull a Tampa, sell some piece and buy some piece. Say sell Semien but get a starting pitcher with term in another deal or have the pitcher coming back for Semien be a major league ready starting pitcher.
5%: Go full on sell.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#403550) #
Perhaps I needed to be clearer: my "stars align, sell Semien and Ray and acquire Gallo" speculation presumed that those would be separate transactions. Obviously that's not going to match up with Texas. A three-sided trade is theoretically possible, but it's far more likely that you'd see something like this happen as separate transactions.

On Biggio, I think that he's preferable to Espinal offensively going forward. Espinal's defence at 3B probably makes up the difference, but I think we should still look at Biggio as a long-term starting 2B, either with the Jays or elsewhere. As I've been saying for years, super-utility guy was always a poor match to his skill set. You obviously put up with playing him out of position this year when you get a chance to sign Semien, but he should be traded or go back to 2B next year.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#403551) #
Houston just acquired Graveman. Early trades could force the decision too - if Boston gets Scherzer and Kimbrel, NYY get Bryant and TB gets... I don't know,, say Berrios, probably not worth Toronto going hard after Gallo or whoever
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#403552) #
Baseball gods giving our FO all the extra time they could ask for.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#403553) #
Chuck, I've said before (if not, I believe); it will take more than Hernandez to pry loose a talent like Jose Ramirez, but I would imagine Cleveland would be motivated to get something for him before his player options get expensive. As John Northey pointed out, they might wait until the off-season, but they're currently 8.5 games out and I doubt they harbour serious aspirations of the postseason this year.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#403554) #
Seattle trades Graveman. They gave up??
Chuck - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#403555) #
I would imagine Cleveland would be motivated to get something for him before his player options get expensive

What player options? Cleveland holds team options of 11M and 13M for the next two seasons.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#403556) #
In the same vein as the "trade Ray/Semien and trade for Gallo in a separate deal" thought process shared here, I think playing both sides would be an interesting way to go. Hypothetically, if the Jays traded Semien and Ray in the next few days, nothing is preventing them from trading prospects (whether existing, the ones they got in those trades, or both) for other pieces that will help in 2021 and beyond. They don't have to buy or sell in the traditional sense, just make decisions that balance out the roster a bit better and give the team a better chance to contend in the future as well. I don't expect it to happen, but the Jays have to get creative some times in the division they are in.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#403557) #
Team options excuse me.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#403558) #
"Are the Jays really buyers? "

I'm guessing they feel very relieved that their team's bad luck is going to let them off the hook.

Only three more years left of vladdy, probably, if they want to get real value back for him.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#403559) #
Seattle is the opposite of the Jays - they are winning more than they should given their talent level (Pythag WL is 45-56 vs real record of 55-46, Jays is 56-40 vs real 49-47, if the Jays had the Mariners luck they'd be 66-30 with the best record in baseball).

As to Graveman who knew he'd be the best of the players the Jays gave up? Graveman: 6.7 WAR lifetime, 1.5 this year - 0.82 ERA 10 saves, 2 blown, 4 holds. Lawrie: 15.6 lifetime, but just 2.9 after the trade (2 years and done), Franklin Barreto (who many here hated to trade as he looked really good in the minors) has -1.0 WAR lifetime and hasn't played in 2021. Sean Nolin -0.6 WAR lifetime hasn't played in the majors since 2015 but is in the minors this year, still dreaming of another chance.

Donaldson of course is in Minny, 2.1 WAR so far, 27.8 since the trade plus an MVP.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#403560) #
Team options excuse me.

I'm clearly not following your line of argument, then. If Cleveland felt the team options were expensive, they simply wouldn't exercise them and Ramirez would be a FA in 2022. But of course those are not expensive options. The are exceedingly cheap for a player of that magnitude. And they will be exercised. And for Cleveland to trade such a player with such cheap options, they'd want to empty Toronto's farm system.

Chuck - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#403561) #
As to Graveman who knew he'd be the best of the players the Jays gave up?

Houston may be disappointed when they see Graveman unable to maintain his .176 BABIP.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#403562) #
No question Jose Ramirez would be super-expensive. Trade Simulator says he is worth $83.5 mil roughly so it would cost O. Martinez, Groshans, Pearson, and Hiraldo.

FYI: they won't even let you try to trade Vlad (187.8) or Bieber (167.3). But they do let one try to find a deal for Bichette (151.7). Moreno is the most valuable prospect right now at 53.9. Kirk is down a bit at 17.2.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#403563) #
If you're convinced Cleveland would automatically pick up an 11 and 13 million dollar option, well then OK. But they're basically a non contending team this seasomlm, who has traded away basically anyone making money the last decade. If it were even a mid market team, I'd say yes you're 100% right they'll hang on to that "exceedingly" affordable cost.

I mention Teoscar because he's a good young controllable player that Cleveland could certainly be interested in, and the Jays currently have a bit of a glut in the outfield. Obviously you would have to throw in a couple of good prospects to get the deal done, but I'm not as convinced as you that Ramirez isn't in play.
mathesond - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#403564) #
I suspect that if the Guardians made Ramirez available to Toronto, the return would not centre around Teoscar, who is likely due substantial raises in arbitration.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#403565) #
That simulator is based on surplus value - IE: value the player is expected to provide beyond their contract. So if you center it on Teoscar, the deal would be Teoscar, Groshans, Pearson, Hiraldo. Then the surplus value is almost dead on. You might get away with Teoscar, Groshans, and SWR though. But that is pushing it.

Fair deals for big value players are hard to make. The cost is always sky high along with the risk factor. I don't see the Jays trading anyone who they think will be a big asset this year. So no Hernandez, or Pearson in a deal. Kirk I could still see mixed in for the right deal if they feel Jansen will be back soon.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#403566) #
In my opinion, the Jays have to find a way to extend Guerrero for a least a couple of his free agency years, whether it’s in the form of an early Tatis-like extension or a comparatively late Trout-like extension (the 2015-2020 one, not the more recent 12-year one).

That is, unless they want to be viewed as a mere farm team for the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or some other wealthy team.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#403567) #
Mathesond indeed that's a great point I hadn't thought of. And I trust John N's trade calculus there. It would obvously cost them some prospect capital. But I would argue it's a hell of a lot more of what Atkins ought to be doing and what I think they are trying to do. I forget who reported it (it was someone credible Davidi or Nicholson Smith) did write the Jays arguably put together a better offer for Lindor than the Mets did. They did ante up for Ryu and Springer. The president has told anyone who will listen that are no longer asset collecting and they are trying to win. So yes,Gallo is nice and a few of the relievers,sure I guess, but I would hope the vast majority of their energy this trade deadline is geared toward adding elite talent like Ramirez who is obviously not going to stay in Cleveland long term.
scottt - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#403568) #
The Jays are 1 of 8 teams linked to Scherzer who is willing to waive his no-trade clause--as long as it's not to go to New York--preferably to a team willing to extend him immediately.
The cost for Verlander in 2017 was Franklin Perez (A top pitching prospect who blew his arm and has not reached yet), Daz Cameron (a 50 outfield prospect who has sizzled) and Jake Rogers (a 45 catching prospect).

Trevor Story, Jonathan Schoop, Trea Turner, Whit Merrifield, Cesar Hernandez, Javier Baez, Josh Harrison.
There are a lot of middle infield options available, so the return on Semien would probably be very light.
It's a strong buyer market.
If the Jays get a couple of supplemental picks, they could go underslot and sign a bunch of high schoolers.
(Like Irv Carter)

Atkins was not able to get anything close to value when he traded Happ--and that wasn't a last minute deal.
He held on to Donaldson until the very end.
Bautista and Encarnation were not traded, they just got QOs.
Same with Estrada.
So same thing should happen to Semien, Ray, Bichette, Guerrero, etc...
The difference is that maybe a prospect--say Orelvis Martinez--could push out a regular.

I kinda like Hudson. He's having his best year yet. If I was picking up Scherzer, I'd get him too.
The same way, if I was spending top prospects on Gallo, I'd try to get Ian Kennedy as well.

scottt - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#403569) #
I dunno about Cleveland. They had a tough year. Lots of injuries.
Still managed to stay on the edge of contention.
Who are they losing before next year? Eddie Rosario? Bryan Shaw?
They have a solid young rotation.
I can't imagine they're in a rush to sell their cheap/controllable assets and enter a long rebuild.
People seem to have this view of baseball with only a dozen teams trying to win and the majority tanking while in reality, there's only a handful of teams really tanking. 

Is that just another pointless trade from Dipoto?
Just wanted to get something for Graveman?

christaylor - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#403570) #
"Only three more years left of vladdy, probably, if they want to get real value back for him."

Yikes. If this sentiment occurs to even 5% of the fan base, you folks need to see this team live to experience the joy that even a flawed team can bring.

Sorry for the rant, which is not directed at anyone; I want to provide a perspective. It comes from seeing the Jays live 4 times already this season at Fenway. I'm thinking of going tomorrow. Good seats are currently inexpensive (for Fenway).

I was at the game on Monday. It was a tough loss but expected given the bad luck with injuries/ineffectiveness in the pen.

That said team does not need to win or even make the playoffs, to be fun to watch. Perhaps TV-only fandom kills some of the magic of the game.

Let me explain. I was on the 3B base side, and Vladdy refused to gift a ball to the stands every inning despite wild cheers. In the 4th or 5th inning, he tossed the ball to Semien around SS before the yelling started from the Lodge Boxes. Semien threw the ball into the stands as Vlad and Hernandez joked with one another. Upon seeing this joked to my wife, "I bet they could be laughing about Semien wanting to be on the Sox next year."

Here is another anecdote. A friendly and knowledgeable grandfather behind us taught his pre-teen grandson to score and was pointing out how much fun Vlad was to watch hit.

At Fenway on the 3B side, you see every little interaction the visiting team has with one another. In my decade living here, I've never seen interactions among the Jays players (or any other team) like this year.

Does this mean Vlad will give a discount? No. Will he leave? I have no idea. The rides in 2015 and 2016 were fun because they were in the hunt, but they weren't fun to watch in the same way.

In the end, we're merely humans watching humans. As we all know, losses will happen at least 40% of the time, almost certainly. If we're lucky Jays fans, the team might lose 42-43% of the time.

Three years is a long time. We may lose a season because of a work stoppage. We may see the promise of the team fade. We will see surprises. Buy your tickets, take the ride. It's just a ride in the end.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#403571) #
Deichmann is 26 with no defensive value and hasn't hit in the minors since single A, aside from a moderately above average line this year thanks to a .400babip.

He's not even a tellez. Not even a Riley Adams.

You certainly don't have to accept their evaluation as gospel, but Fangraphs had Deichmann as a 40+ prospect and Smith was a 40FV prospect prior to the season. Coincidentally, so was Riley Adams, So Fangraphs doesn't share your perspective.

Neither does, for what it's worth, which ranks Diechmann as a 45, which is the same as Adams, and higher than Smith.

Deichmann has consistently posted much higher batting lines against righties than lefties. He probably profiles, at best, as a platoon corner outfielder, but as an average defender in the corners who might be able to hit for power against righties, that's not nothing. I don't think the comparison in terms of prospect value was that offbase.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2021 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#403572) #
Scherzer I'd be nervous about unless he appears likely to sign a long term deal. You know he won't be at a discount too. At age 36 I'd hate to do a 5 year deal (takes him to age 41) at $30+ a year but that is what he will demand and might just get. Still a Cy Young contender, clearly wants another ring. The 3 NL West teams would be his first choice, the Jays would have to do a massive wine/dine to convince him to come here. I really don't see it happening. Trade Simulator has him listed far too cheap imo, with the cost being Hiraldo & Van Eyk to get an accepted trade.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#403573) #
5 years is kinda nutty. Verlander got a 2y extension at the same age after 2 peak-dominant years in a hitters park. I'd be using that as a comparable, say something around a 2y/60M with a 30M option with a 10M buyout. Of course, how reasonable is a 7 war projection over 2 years for someone his age? Huh. ZIPS says quite reasonable, and maybe a bit light.

Of course, that's different for the trade value than Verlander, who still had 2 more favorable if large years on his existing deal when he was dealt. With Scherzer, you're paying for a half year and the right to negotiate market rates.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#403574) #
I think Scherzer to Boston would be a good trade. Fantastic 1/2 at the top of the rotation. Boston would give up some decent hitters.

The question is probably Luxury Tax problems for Boston. Getting the JD Martinez contract off the books would be helpful.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#403575) #
As mentioned, a Scherzer extension would probably be two (expensive) years with some type of option in the 3rd year. I doubt any team goes beyond that for a 37 year old. I find it hard to believe he's against going to New York yet would be open to coming to Toronto, so I doubt he's a realistic option, but if he were open to coming to the Jays and extending here then a trade for him would be fine with me depending on the cost. Getting top of the rotation arms is not easy.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#403576) #
Marcus Semien is having a better season than Kris Bryant and more versatile and what the cubs get for Bryant will give us a good idea of what a retun for Semien would be if the Jays sold (they are not selling).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#403577) #
Here are my predictions:

Red Sox lose 3 to Blue Jays

Blue Jays trade for Kennedy, Hudson and Pineda

Pearson, Hatch Matz join the pen

Mayweather returns

Jays retain Kirk, Martin, Groshans, SWR, Moreno etc

Biggio is moved

bpoz - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#403578) #
I see this year as a partial success. 85-90 wins.

I would like the rest of the season to be a sorting process for next years pen.

Romano is set.

Borucki and Merryweather are both very good but get hurt a lot.

Saucedo was given an opportunity and has done well.

Murphy, Kay, Hatch have great potential. They need to prove that they can be reliable.

Thornton needs to prove he is reliable.

All are on the 40 man roster, so they need to pass some tests.

Allgeyer is back in Buffalo. He needs to play well there and be ready for next year.

That is a lot of players. Mainly were SPs in the minors. They cannot clog up the 40 man roster. They have to be reliable in the pen.

The rotation is Ryu, Manoah (learning). Stripling as the 5th or 6th man. Pearson is a possibility. Atkins will have to add 2 more.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#403579) #
Fangraphs with it's annual Roster Crunch series, AL today.

Longo doesn't see the Jays with a crunch. The 6 teams he does range from the good to the bad.

Rays, Yankees, Guardians, Twins, Royals and Rangers.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#403580) #
Davis, Valera, Palacios, Adams, Thornton, Snead, Saucedo, Murphy, Kay, Dolis, Chatwood, Castro...ya, there's nothing resembling a crunch even if you like a guy or two.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#403581) #
Wishful thinking? Homecoming would be the perfect time to drop the bombshell of long-term contract extensions for Vlad & Bo.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#403582) #
Corey Dickerson is in the Bisons lineup today at DH. If you assume he needs 4-5 games to be ready, then the Jays have a decision to make by the end of the week. Of course they could just trade him by Friday too.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#403583) #
Starling Marte (a rental) was just traded by the Marlins to the A's for Jesus Luzardo.

If that's the cost for rentals in this market, then Semien/Ray should be available.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#403584) #
Yeah Stoeten wrote about the 40 man crunch being a problem, but between releases and trading for cash/super minor prospects/etc and of course the low quality of many of those players it is really not an issue. Interesting return for Marte, not sure how good Luzardo is.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#403585) #
The Marlins got Lazardo in part because of Marte and in part because they are paying the entirety of Marte's $4.57 million salary.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#403586) #
The Athletics are 6 games back of a very good Astros team (+143 run differential). Billy Beane clearly doesn't agree with the approach of many posters around here.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#403587) #
Pearson equivalent for Marte for 2 months. Pass. Maybe trade Ray for a top 50 SP.
mathesond - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#403588) #
Isn't Ray a top 50 SP?
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#403589) #
Fangraphs does not include the Jays because they don't consider the Jays to have a top farm system.

They just mention that the Twins don't have a crush and that the Rangers won't have one until 2022.

Obviously, the Rays have one because their team is full of young, cheap controllable players and they have 7 guys on the 60IL.
The Yankees? They're loaded with replacement players like Odor and all their high level prospects are fringe types, like Florial. Cleveland? They have a dozen guys with OPS+ under 100. 

This seems to be mostly about the rule 5 draft.
The Jays haven't lost anyone to the draft in years, but have lost many players on waivers.
That's the real crunch.

Thomas - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#403590) #
The A's must have gone off Luzardo, because otherwise that's a really high price to pay for a rental of Marte or otherwise they were very desperate for the Marlins to retain salary. But I don't think I would have done it if I was Forst regardless.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#403591) #
Not really 92-93. Jays and As are in much different situations. For one the As are actually in a wild card spot now, not 4 games out. Second they only have one team in front of them in the division. Jays have 3 and are 10.5 out of first.
ramone - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#403592) #
"Fangraphs does not include the Jays because they don't consider the Jays to have a top farm system."

Scott I think Fangraphs is higher on the Jays system than you think, believe this is post draft, they have them 7th.,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=
Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#403593) #
Yeah I think scott is referring to the write up they did for each team and where Eric pretty much bashed (without much reason tbh) the Jays system. "This system will probably end up near the very bottom of the farm rankings"

Ofc this turned out to be totally false when they updated their rankings and I don't think Eric ever publicly walked back his statement.
ramone - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#403594) #
Ah thanks Kasi I missed that, that is odd for being ranked 7th, my apologies Scott.
Paul D - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#403595) #
I am glad that George Springer is on the team, but less happy about his reckless abandon of going for 3rd and getting thrown out.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#403596) #
The A's are leading the 2nd WC and only trail one team in the division, as Kasi pointed out. That's a much more logical buying position than where the Jays are.

Luzardo's stock isn't what it used to be, and it's possible he doesn't pan out, but that's five years of team control for a SP with very high upside. If the Jays were to trade Semien and/or Ray, the logic behind it would be to add pieces that could help in 2022-25. A pitcher like Luzardo, while risky due to health (+ being a pitching prospect), is that type of return. Although obviously the Marlins can wait on him a lot longer than the Jays could due to contention window, so he seems like a much better fit for the Marlins than he would have for the Jays. Either way, if teams are willing to trade pieces like that for rentals, then the Jays should keep an open mind while simultaneously trying to add longer term pieces in other moves (ex. Gallo).
ramone - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#403597) #
Kasi, did he tweet that as I don't see that line or the Jays even mentioned in the Fangraphs writeup?
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#403598) #
Marte & his salary for Jesus Luzardo - I'm Jealous - I was asking for that for Semien, setting my sights too low.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#403599) #
The Mariners players are furious about the Graveman trade.

players, more than anything else, felt betrayed.

Reminds me of Bautista complaining about AA doing nothing in 2014.

Luzardo has a 6.87 ERA, but was better over the previous 2 years and has another 4 years of control.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#403600) #
On July 18th Fangraphs had the Jays as more likely than the As to win both the division and the wild card. Those odds were also better than the A's odds for both are today.

So ten days ago the Jays were in a better position than the As are today and you saw numerous posts that unless the Jays get closer, they should be sellers.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#403601) #
No ramone it was in his writeup earlier this year before the season started:

And for projections sure that is projections. If you believe the Jays really are that good a team and they can turn it around then sure. It's not that even today either fangraphs or baseball reference has the Jays at that much significantly under the As for playoff odds. But I just don't have that belief myself as I think a lot of that run differential was put up in meaningless games against poor pitching. I also have not seen any sign that the Jays are going to correct their late innings issue, either in the bullpen or in the bats.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#403602) #
At the Tokyo Olympics, the United States men's baseball team plays Isreal on Friday, then South Korea on Saturday. Both games are scheduled for 6 AM Eastern Time. Interesting to see Simeon Woods-Richardson.
Eephus - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#403603) #
It's not an ideal path to success, but Ray does seem pretty exceptional at escaping bases loaded, nobody out jams.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#403604) #
Frustrating to look at the farm rankings and see TB at the top year in year out. They have the only 80 player on the board too (Wander Franco). Baltimore has the only guy in the 70's (Adley Rutschman a CA).
Best Jays are 55's Pearson, and Martin.
50's:(6) Manoah, Moreno, SWR, Orelvis Martinez, Kirk, Groshans
45's: (2) Gunnar Hoglund, Hiraldo
40+: (3) CJ Van Eyk, Rikelbin De Castro, Julian Merryweather
40's: 16 guys.
35's: 14 guys.
Total of 43 ranked guys.
Tampa has 58 (1 80, 1 60, 8 50's, 2 45+'s, 4 45's, 7 40+'s, 12 40's, 23 35+'s).
Baltimore has 45 (1 70, 1 60, 1 55, 3 50's, 6 45's, 6 40+, 14 40's, 13 35's)
Boston has 57 (1 55, 3 50's, 2 45+'s, 5 45's, 10 40+'s, 19 40's, 17 35's)
NYY have 51 (8 50's, 3 45+'s, 5 45's, 4 40+'s, 12 40's, 19 35's)

Dang the AL East is tough isn't it? Tampa ranked #1, Baltimore #2, Yankees #4, Jays #7, Boston #13. All 5 in the upper half of the majors, 4 in the top 7. Oy. Radical realignment with 2 more teams would be nice. New central division with Jays, a new Expos, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Twins, Marlins (via The Score). New East would be Rays, Atlanta, Washington, Baltimore, NYY, NYM, Boston, Philly. MidWest Rangers, Astros, Cardinals, Royals, Rockies, Brewers, ChiSox, Cubs. West the rest (LAD, LAA, SD, Arizona, Giants, A's, Seattle, a western expansion team [Vegas listed, but could be Portland]). No more Yankees/Red Sox/Rays would skyrocket the Jays odds.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#403605) #
Nice to see the much maligned Grichuk playing well today. That power and the ability to play all 3 OF positions is always going to get him into a decent number of games.
Paul D - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#403606) #
Man, instead of a trade I think I'd like them to announce that they've extended Robbie Ray this week.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#403607) #
Rays is hard to steal on and he does not rely on an elaborate wind up, so he's not bothered by runners.

The Jays have around a chance in 3 of making the playoffs.
Over the next 2 months, they need to generate some positive buzz to sell all those seats next year.
Trading one of their best player for a 5th starter doesn't accomplish anything.

The Marlins have 0 chances this year.
They tried to extend Marte--cheaply--and he turned them down.
So, they're talking the best offer for him.
Yimi Garcia is next.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#403608) #
I think I'd like them to announce that they've extended Robbie Ray this week.

And that they've extended Dalbec and Chavis on behalf of the Red Sox.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#403609) #
Great call by Montoyo here letting Ray come out for the 6th.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#403610) #
Why would Ray sign an extension now?
He's never even pitched in Toronto yet.

Dusty Hill of ZZ top dead at 72.
Baseball angle? Scott Weberg's beard?

mathesond - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#403611) #
Apparently Rogers is bringing back a dedicated radio broadcast, starting with Friday's Dome opener.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#403612) #
Give him the 7th. At the very least don't burn Romano.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#403613) #
[re ZZ top] Baseball angle?

Playboy model Jeanna Tomasino was one of the women in the Legs video. She was married to longtime Oakland A's pitcher Matt Keough.

scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#403614) #
Ray is pitching on extra rest, which he doesn't like.
Gotta throw him a bone here.
Let's pretend it's to save the pen. From having to pitch.
Something they are not good at.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#403615) #
Another angle... with Ray's choice of pants, he's vying to be in his own Legs video.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#403616) #
They could not do a remote radio broadcast?

Or maybe they can't justify the savings of not having a second broadcast crew at home?

scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#403617) #
Totally expected Romano--who has hardly pitched lately--for the non-save 9th inning.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#403618) #
Was that the best Romano we've seen all year? Devers put up quite a fight.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#403619) #
Best fastball, but the slider to Devers was quite bad.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#403620) #
Well that went well. Ray might resign just to avoid the risk that free agency has. Old bird in hand vs one in bush. He is with the VC Sports Group - no idea what their rep is. I figure he wants 5 years $100 mil, but I could be way off too. He seems comfortable here with the coaching crew and the young improving team.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#403621) #
Jays now 6-3 in 7 inning ballgames. I'm surprised the record isn't better, with 2 innings of middle relievers that don't have to be used.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#403622) #
I was a little surprised Ray came back out for the sixth. Montoyo was probably going by the pitch count (and probably very much preferred going directly from Ray to Romano) but Ray had to work very, very hard in the first two innings and any pitcher will tell you that five of those pitches takes more out of you than fifteen in a non-stressful situation.

But all's well that ends well.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#403623) #
I think it's 7-3, no?
mendocino - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#403624) #
Jays have signed 14r 3B Damiano Palmegiani $157,500
$2,995 overslot cash left
Thomas - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#403625) #
Man, instead of a trade I think I'd like them to announce that they've extended Robbie Ray this week.

Co-sign this.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#403626) #
I agree, I'd like to see Ray in the rotation next year for sure.

Joey Gallo scratched from the Ranger's lineup tonight for non-medical reasons. Trade in the works?
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#403627) #
Hazel Mae now reporting that a Gallo deal to the Yankees is all but done.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#403628) #
Gallo to Yanks. First.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#403629) #

The record suggests otherwise.....

92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#403630) #
And the Yankees didn't give up any of their top prospects to get Gallo. Gross.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#403631) #
14, 15, 17, 23, 28 and unranked by mlb, I think.

Sellers usually want guys in the low minors who don't need roster protection.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#403632) #
“ The record suggests otherwise.....”

Both posted at same time. I use my cell phone on this site which is a terrible experience. Post intended read “Gallo to Yankees. First. BIG. Move.” Using a touch screen I typed “FirstbBigbMove” which changed to “First.”

I dunno, I don’t like these iPhones, prefer my old BB.
scottt - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#403633) #
One post appears before the other, so poster before.

First big move for whom?

Magpie - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#403634) #
I'm assuming that graphic during the game on HRs at Fenway only included HRs hit while a member of the Blue Jays. Otherwise they forgot about Joe Carter, who loved hitting there (.312/.339/.615) with 22 HRs in 79 games.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#403635) #
Sell sell sell.

And fire the FO.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#403636) #
14, 15, 17, 23, 28 and unranked by mlb, I think.

Someone should send that to the Athletic beat writer for the Rangers.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#403637) #
Gallo is going to hit a lot of home runs (and walk a lot) for the Yankees. And play good defense. I like the trade for them, both because Gallo is good and because the Yankees seem likely to quickly generate another batch of interesting low-minors prospects to replace this one.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#403638) #
I hope the Jays don’t do something rash like trading good prospects for a two-month rental. The Jays are already up against it in 2021 and so far the competition has added Cruz (TB), Marte (Oak) and Gallo (NYY), making it that much harder to make up lost ground.

The harsh reality is that there may not be a blockbuster move available for the Jays that makes sense. The team needs controllable impact talent and that is not easy to find. They have to stay patient and keep building and adding talent through opportunistic moves if and when they arise. “You can’t force contention”— AA.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#403639) #
FWIW, writers from Baseball America came out and said they viewed Smith and Duran as top 10 prospects in the Yankees system in their mid-season rankings.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#403640) #
Jays are still pretty much in the 'don't sell the farm' mode. I'd be looking for marginal improvements, not touching top 10 prospects and only 1 or 2 in the 11-20 range for the right rental. The only way a top 10 goes is if they get someone who will be here for at least 2 years after 2021 and have a significant impact on the team. Not many qualify for that imo.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#403641) #
Keith Law on Deichmann, for what it's worth.

"He’s shown the ability to hit for average, and the power is still in there, so I like the odds of him combining it all and becoming at least an everyday corner outfielder, with more offensive upside."
Nigel - Wednesday, July 28 2021 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#403642) #
If the equivalent trade for Gallo were something like Hiraldo, Smith and a couple of others off the Jays list in the 15-20 range, I’d have done that deal every day and twice on Sunday. Gallo obviously has his warts but his pluses sure would have looked good in blue for the next year and a half.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#403643) #
Law means Deichmann might develop into an everyday starter in AAA at some point, right?
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#403644) #
Texas wanted guys at the rookie to A ball levels, so no Smith.
Hiraldo, Beltre, Van Eyk, and some other guy, more like it. Maybe Robertson.

The Yankees are really good at hyping their low level prospects.
This looks like 4 lottery tickets to me, but Texas probably see some guys who could turn into regulars.

85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#403645) #
Solid trade for the Yankees but they are not making the playoffs.
Chuck - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#403646) #
Solid trade for the Yankees but they are not making the playoffs.

I agree with this.

The team is a mess. Disappointments abound: LeMahieu, Torres, Chapman, Stanton. Support players have been hurt and/or have not made strides: Frazier, Andujar, Voit, Hicks, Kluber, Britton. Father time seems to have tolled the bell for Gardner.

Judge and Stanton have been relatively healthy (of course a much lower bar is applied where they are concerned; and that Stanton contract, what an albatross!). Cole's ERA since the clampdown on sticky stuff on June 21 is 3.82.

I can't see that Gallo will make enough of a difference. I'm guessing that he and Judge will play in the outfield corners but this doesn't address their CF issue (unless they intend to stick Judge there).

Chuck - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#403647) #
Of course, a counter-argument would be that should all the under-performing Yankees play at their career norms for the balance of the season, that alone would make a huge difference and have them competing for the wild card. FanGraphs seems to think so, giving them a 40% playoff shot.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#403648) #
Dan Szymborski:

“And contrary to the general feeling surrounding the team these days, the Yankees have a great shot to make the playoffs this season. Sure, the likely path involves beating out the A’s, Jays, and Mariners for a road game against the Rays or Red Sox, but you can make a good argument that the Yankees are the best team of that second Wild Card group, and they’re not far off the pace. I’d also argue that this would be a good trade even if 2021 were a hopeless exercise; a real battle for the AL East crown in 2022 is the more valuable prize.”

Gallo makes the Yankees more of a threat this year and in 2022, making the Jays’ path to the postseason that much harder.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#403649) #
No no no it's much smarter not to try.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#403650) #
And they might not be done trading but they are near the luxury tax threshold.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#403651) #
Back to the Future Part II (1989) had the sports almanac, inspired by the future Cubs' World Series. ZZ Top performs in Part III (1990) at the Old West 1885 town dance.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#403652) #
The Yankees are trying and they’re doing so in an intelligent way.

Hopefully this doesn’t mean another year of Grichuk and Gurriel in a (Semien-less) Jays lineup.
James W - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#403653) #
It's not the Athletic beat writer's fault that the Rangers front office sold a five-dollar bill for six quarters. Seems to me the team would be better off with the beat writer in charge.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#403654) #
You have to know when to go for it,hold or fold.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#403655) #
As long as you know when to walk away
bpoz - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#403656) #
Definitely agree with UO. Much smarter not to try. This of course based on the |Jays current position in the standings. Also agree with 85bluejay know when to go for it hold or fold. This is basic games theory.

Hope the Jays hold or fold.

NYY probably making it worse for themselves.

Also hoping that by some miracle TB goes for it. Get Scherzer and Bryant. Overpay with prospects to have money sent to TB. TB will come up with more prospects. IMO.
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#403657) #
They get to try Gallo before they decide if they want to commit serious money in free agency.
Gallo might thrive in NY or he might be affected by the pressure there.
The Rangers haven't done much the seven years he played for them.

Yankees Stadium does not necessary help him.
He has lots of power and hits homeruns to all fields.
The left bat fits nicely in the Yankees lineup, no question about that.

The Jays have lots of young infielders who bat right and who will age better than Semien.
I don't mind Biggio going back to second and someone else finally playing the super utility role.
I just want to pick up another reliever, but maybe not Richard Rodriguez unless he's cheap.

scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#403658) #
Texas is paying all of Gallo's and Rodriguez's salaries.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#403659) #
"Solid trade for the Yankees but they are not making the playoffs"

Brian Cashman under pressure is a scary thought. I don't think he's done. He's demonstrated time and again the ability to deliver.

Chaim Bloom also, has demonstrated himself to be one of if not the smartest guy in the room, many times.

Tampa Bay now under James Click I don't think is quite so great in the FO. Top 5 team, probably, but not miles ahead of the rest of the industry like in the past. I expect them to level off as the work of Bloom from the previous 5 years fades away.

Shapiro and and Atkins have a solid, amazing track record, but unlike Bloom or Cashman under pressure, our FO I believe operates as strictly "inside the box" thinkers. For me, this is what I miss about AA, maybe the only thing.

Who would have thought the Yankees would have landed Gallo? This is a huge first move for the AL East that changes everything.

If I'm Toronto I am packing up and shifting gears. Trade Semien, resign Ray and prepare for 2022.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#403660) #
Blue Jays Trade Season Notes/Updates

Dave Perkins and Dave Hodge were on Bob McCown's podcast yesterday and both had two points which they cited which were quite interesting:

1) Many "in and around the organization" feel that the Blue Jays will have to trade Bo Bichette to be able to sign all their players.

2) The Blue Jays have been taking proposals for both Ray and Semien (Dave Perkins only)

Listening to these guys for over a decade, I am a millennial but feel they are connected to the game. I know Longley at the Sun, Perkins, Hodge...they all have contacts in and around the game. Example is Bob Elliot who is very connected to the team.



Scott Mitchell of TSN was citing I believe Fangraphs in a tweet, showing that there is potentially high ceiling with Kevan Smith, suggesting he would not include him in any trades.

92-93 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#403661) #
Atkins has an amazing track record? At what, hoarding prospects?
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#403662) #
Bpoz....I was being childishly sarcastic.
Glevin - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#403663) #
It never makes any sense to look at a different team's trade and think "Jays could have beat that" because you have no idea how Texas values those minor leaguers. If the cost for Jays was a bunch of prospects in the 10-20 range, I'm sure they would have done it. Maybe Texas thinks Duran is going to be a superstar. Maybe they don't like Hiraldo, etc...I don't understand the anger at the front office either. Like, you want the team to go all-in in an uphill fight for the second wild card? Give up top prospects for a year of Craig Kimbrel? Jays have built a great young core with a top system. You have to be smart about the moves you make, not desperately try to make the playoffs any time you are near them. Jays are likely looking at either short-term moves that don't cost much or getting longer-term pieces for their prospects.
bpoz - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#403664) #
You fooled me again UO. That's ok.

I have not said anything BUT I feel that many of the packages of the players is light. Except the Marte for Luzardo deal. A rental for Oakland which helps them get to the playoffs. Luzardo could be a solid #2 and is cheap for a few years.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#403665) #
Glevin, they had glaring obvious holes coming into the season. The anger stems from never addressing them from the offseason up until now, and letting a promising season fade in the meantime, with the very real chance of fielding a significant worse team next year.

You're right at this point it seems too late to be worth it, but they have had half a year to do something already.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#403666) #
Last fall in an interview, Shapiro said the FO would be submitting budget request to ownership based on different scenarios with respect to games played and attendance in Toronto - I'm sure the budget that ownership approved was conservative based on likely the scenario that played out.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#403667) #
I can only imagine how Rogers' profits have skyrocketed during covid with everyone home looking for something to watch.
Glevin - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#403668) #
Their glaring holes were 2B, CF, SP, and bullpen. They had a glaring hole in CF and signed the best CFer. They had a glaring hole at 2B and got the best 2Bman. They had glaring hole at SP and re-signed Ray who has been amazing. They signed Chatwood, Phelps, and Yates and had Romano, Merryweather, and Borucki. They did address it, it just didn't work out. I think overall they did very well with their glaring holes.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#403669) #
Good point Glevin - although the glaring hole wasn't 2B but 3B, addressed by signing a top end 2B and pushing Biggio to 3B. Not a perfect solution but based on WAR Semien is now tied with Vlad at 4.9 for 2nd in the AL (Ohtani is a mile ahead at 7.0). Resigning Ray for just $8 mil was an amazing move in the end. Who knew? Most here wanted Walker instead - now at 0.9 WAR after getting beat up post ASG (2 starts, 4 1/3 IP 11 ER), Ray at 3.7 and looking strong.

I liked the bullpen moves and felt the best guy (Hendricks) was too expensive for a closer (4 years at a cost of over $53 mil) especially with just 2 years as an elite reliever, one of those being 2020.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#403670) #
After all their offseason moves, it was abundantly clear that SP and RP were still going to be a big problem.

They knew that then.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#403671) #
Jays just traded for Brad Hand.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#403672) #
For Riley Adams.

Hand has been mediocre this year but has been a good LHRP for a long while before now.

uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#403673) #
Hand was a free agent this offseason who signed a 1yr deal for $10.5m. He was an obvious fit here even then.
Glevin - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#403674) #
Hand for Adams is fine. Jays have a glut of catchers and even a mediocre Hand is a pretty good upgrade.
Paul D - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#403675) #
And of course, before he was a Free Agent, he was on waivers for $10 million dollars.
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#403676) #
I'd rather get Hand for Adams than Gallo for Moreno.
They really needed to trade a catcher and McGuire has earned his spot.

uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#403677) #

Brad Hand deal with Nationals doesn't involve cash considerations going either way per source

So #BlueJays take on Hand's $10.5 million salary, $6.5 million of which is deferred

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) July 29, 2021
The Jays take on the remaining deferred $6.5m of hand's deal. So they get 2 months of Hand for $6.5m instead of 6 months of Hand for $10.5m.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#403678) #
That's $6.5m + Adams for 2 months of Hand I mean.
Thomas - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#403679) #
I'm not a huge fan. Hand's not been great this year and the underlying numbers aren't great.

I think there were better fits to upgrade the pen at a lower cost (I'm thinking mainly prospect-wise, as opposed to salary-wise). The pen needed upgraded, but I'm not convinced this was the best fit in terms of upgrade/cost. I don't doubt they were probably trying to exhaust alternatives.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#403680) #
Seems like a "We must do something kinda deal" hope it works out"
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#403682) #
Only a 3.59 ERA and 21 saves this year. (He was the same leader with Cleveland last year.)
18 BB this year, but 4 of those are intentional. 8.9 K/9, his lowest since 2015.

He slots around Romano at the top.
If we get Pearson back in the pen in a few weeks, that's good enough for me.

bpoz - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#403683) #
Losing Adams is ok. He had a lot of catchers ahead of him. Burned 1 option already, so 2 left with not much chance of beating out Jansen, Kirk, Moreno and McGuire. Of course, you never know.

The $6.5 mil I would consider a worse loss except how much have we blown on pitching this year already? Roark, Yates, Phelps, Chatwood, Yamaguchi must be $20-25 mil I think.
Polite Nate - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#403684) #
I'm also not the biggest fan of this move, though it will probably be fine. Adams definitely looked overmatched in his brief time in MLB, and the Jays may have catching depth, but until someone finally breaks the "catcher of the future" curse and runs away with the position, I'd rather save those bullets if I could. Hand to my mind is someone I would expect to be traded for a name I'd have to look up on here to know who he is, especially if we're paying full freight. Odds are it's going to be fine, but definitely some Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers vibes in the pessimist cortex of my brain.
Nigel - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#403685) #
Glevin, I agree about not comparing trades in the sense of "the Jays should have done that trade" for all the reasons you mentioned. My point was simply, at that kind of cost (or even higher cost), acquiring Gallo was something I wish the Jays could have pulled off.

As a charter member of the Adams fan club - booooo. I don't love the trade but I think you have to wait until the end of the deadline to assess it. If the Jays start selling (highly unlikely now) or only do this deal, then the obvious question is why? But if its a series of middling deals to try and make a push then its ok (probably too late, but ok).
Polite Nate - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#403686) #
It's definitely a signal that Ray and Semien aren't going anywhere.

Even if I had a crystal ball and knew for certain that the team would miss the playoffs, I don't think I'd have the stomach to sell Semien/Ray right now. Maybe in a video game. But from a human being management perspective, I don't know how you can ask these players to go through everything these past two seasons, the moves to Buffalo, Dunedin, back to Buffalo, and the finally *finally* get back to Toronto in front of a real home crowd... and then pull the rug from under the team the literal day of return. It's not like this is a Pirates-esque disaster of the team where everyone would have seen the writing on the wall. Take your shot, take the draft picks, live with the 2013-esque re-litigation that will no doubt come in future years.
TomTheTerminator - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#403687) #
I'm delighted that we're buyers coming back to the Dome and that we get to see what happens with this squad. =)
Chuck - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#403688) #
I don't think I'd have the stomach to sell Semien/Ray right now.

I agree that moving these guys would be too much of a PR hit. The team will be at home for the first time since 2019. Time to reforge a relationship with the fanbase, even if it means keeping the band together for an 86-win, playoff-missing season.

scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#403689) #
Adams would have been the third catcher playing at AAA or even AA if you want to challenge Moreno.
It would have taken several injuries for him to have a chance to show something.
The next move might be to send Jansen to AAA to figure the hitting side of the game.
I would not hand him an automatic job right now.

The money is nothing. It's money that was allotted for this. Use it or lose it.

hypobole - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#403690) #
Definitely not an Adams fan after watching him earlier this year. Other than patience he looked to me as much more JPA-lite than the next Yan Gomes. Far too much exploitable swing-and-miss and didn't look MLB level defensively.

Only part of the trade I don't like is the deferred salary if it becomes part of a future years budget.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#403691) #
If nothing else Hand's arrival gives the best chance for puns since the acquisition of Anthony Bass. eg: You gotta give Brad a Hand for the way he pitched that last inning, or Hand is well-armed to be head and shoulders above the competition.
Paul D - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#403692) #
Not to mention the McGuire-Hand combo.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#403693) #
I'll take it. At least now no one is guessing who the closer is which should release the pressure valve. I wonder if they will double down and get Kimbrel?
Nigel - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#403695) #
Paul, I think you've just won the internet for the day:)
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#403696) #
"Roark, Yates, Phelps, Chatwood, Yamaguchi must be $20-25 mil I think."

interesting point, when looking at how to spend offseason dollars efficiently.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#403697) #

Sportsnet restores Ben Wagner as radio play-by-play voice of Blue Jays, for now

— SeanFitz_Gerald (@SeanFitz_Gerald) July 29, 2021
92-93 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#403698) #
The Jays are likely not on the hook for the 6.5M. That's just the contract structure that transfers to them. 62% of Hand's 10.5M salary is deferred, and the Jays will be responsible for around 35% of that 10.5M. It works out to the Jays paying Hand 3.7M, but 2.3M of that is deferred and paid out from 2022-2024.

This is a good sign, because it should mean there is more to come.
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#403699) #
From a clubhouse point of view, they don't need another bat.
These guys believe that Gurriel will have a good end of season.
Dickerson will probably play some DH/LF. Gurriel might play a bit of 1B.
They might bring Jansen back in September.
Grichuk is useful as a 4th outfielder.
Bichette has looked good in the cleanup spot.

The rotation might be good enough, with Hatch seemingly holding his own.
Ray lost the first playoffs game last year after he replaced Shoemaker--who has been terrible this year.
Ryu got shelled in the second game.
I imagine Ray would get the call for a wildcard game and would be pulled after going through the rotation twice.

Manoah should be activated Saturday.
Castro and Chatwood are also on the 10IL.
Cole, Edwards, Merryweather and Milone are on the 60IL and could be activated--or released--before the end of the year.

Murphy has burned his second option this year and hasn't accomplished anything.

uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#403700) #

Brad Hand’s $10.5m contract is split between $4m this season and $6.5m in deferrals. The Blue Jays are taking on prorated portions covering next two months of both amounts. So essentially they’re taking on the final third of the total commitment, not the full deferral.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) July 29, 2021
yeah so just on the hook for ~$3.5m
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#403701) #
Money is really not the issue.
Yankees made a bunch of trades without taking any extra money.
Yes, there are teams that would like to trade guys and eat all their salaries in exchange for top prospects.
No, we don't want the Jays involved in any of that.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#403702) #
Let’s let Walker sprinkle his magic pixie dust on Hand and hopefully he can recapture his past excellence.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#403703) #
I'm just here to add a LOL of approval for Paul's post.

Also, to show approval but not full-on excitement for the move. I mean, it's a decent enough move, a step up from the Cimber and Richards moves (which were solid in their own rights). It's just not one that has me stopping what I'm doing and screaming like an excited idiot for 5 minutes, or staring at my monitor with a dumbfounded look of disbelief.

In other words, probably about what I'd expect given the team's tepid play.
uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#403704) #
Yep Scott I want the jays to take on money and not give up prospects.

Still a bit annoyed that the didn't get a guy like Hand for $10m in the offseason tho. We sure could have used a reliable end guy the last 4 months.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#403705) #
Why have people seemingly forgotten about Corey Dickerson? What is the difference between Gallo and he in terms of value?
Jonny German - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#403706) #
It remains something of a mystery why the Jays (and everybody else) passed on Hand when he was on waivers. But reports were that they were in on him as a free agent, but ended up signing Yates before Hand backed off from asking for a multi-year deal.

I think it’s a solid deal. There were too many catchers and Adams is a real long shot to be anything more than a AAAA guy. Hand has a few question marks, but also huge upside.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#403707) #
Corey Dickerson played for Buffalo last night and if he's ok then I think the Lourdes is in play.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#403708) #
Well, he's more likely to get remembered when he appears in a game.

But the difference between him and Gallo? It's easier to site the ways they're similar - they both bat lefty and play the OF. Dickerson is a medium power, reasonably low K and BB, decently high average, OK fielding OF. He's walking vanilla. Gallo is Jalapeno Licorice - extreme in just about every way that Dickerson isn't.
Glevin - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#403709) #
Gallo is way better than Dickerson. First off, he's healthy. Second, Gallo is like a 3-4 WAR player and Dickerson is like a 1 WAR player.
Nigel - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#403710) #
In the past three years: Dickerson 1.4 fWAR; Gallo 7.8 fWAR
electric carrot - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#403711) #
I am happy with the Hand deal. As for McGuire, not sure if Hand helps or if McGuire is better off without him.
Nigel - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#403712) #
Coke to Glevin. For context, Gallo would have been a significant upgrade over Hernandez let alone Gurriel and Grichuk.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#403713) #
Gallo has been a great player this year.  He has 3.4 fWAR (on pace for 5 WAR) and 4.3 bWAR (on pace for 6 WAR) so far; the difference being on how UZR and DRS see his defence.  DRS has him as great, and UZR merely good.  The big difference (unusually) is the value attributed to his arm. 

BBRef has him with the 5th highest position player WAR in MLB behind Tatis, Semien, VGJ and Muncy. 
hypobole - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#403714) #
Dan Szymborski analyses the trade. Bottom line - didn't get much, didn't give up much.
bpoz - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#403715) #
Lets say Gallo is good. Semien is good. Vlad is Very, very good. How about Springer? Not good because he is injured. Same with Mike Trout not good because he is injured. Acuna out for the year. Injuries happen, I can accept that. Lucky we have depth to deal with the Springer injury.
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#403716) #
Gallo is a full time player. Dickerson is either a bench bat or a guy who can platoon with Grichuk and Gurriel.
I'll just point out that Grichuk produced 3 runs in yesterday's 4-1 win. 

You'd rather have Schwarber?

uglyone - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#403717) #
As we get to the deadline might as well look at the projections for the rest of the year....

CF Springer 130wrc+, 4.5war650
1B Guerrero 151wrc+, 5.0war650
SS Bichette 123wrc+, 4.8war650
2B Semien 119wrc+, 4.5war650
DH Teoscar 114wrc+, 2.1war650
C Kirk 114wrc+, 3.4war650
RF Grichuk 105wrc+, 1.8war650
LF Gurriel 104wrc+, 1.8war650
3B Biggio 103wrc+, 2.4war650

UT Moreno 108wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Dickerson 99wrc+, 0.5war650
IF Espinal 82wrc+, 1.5war650
C Jansen 96wrc+, 3.2war650

UT Groshans 88wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Martin 82wrc+, 0.0war650
IF Smith 81wrc+, 0.0war650
C McGuire 77wrc+, 2.4war650

Traded guys:

DH Cruz 138wrc+, 3.3war650
OF Gallo 127wrc+, 4.1war650
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#403718) #
Szymborski makes it sounds like Hand can't strike anyone out anymore.
The velo is up and his K rate has dropped from 33% to 23%, just a tad worse than his career 24%.
His slider is so easy to hit that batters are hitting .172 against it and slugging .250.
That  looks pretty good to me. Walking batter at a 10% clip, (including intentional walks).

AAA fill in for Adams is what I mentioned, not because he's not good, but because Moreno and Kirk are much better.

scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#403719) #
Yankees are celebrating the trade by getting rolled over by Tampa.
0-12 in the 6th. 7 earned runs charged to Cole.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#403720) #
So according to your projections... Danny Jansen will be as valuable the rest of the way as Nelson Cruz. Ok then.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#403721) #
Blue Jays in the mix down to the wire for Berrios with Padres coming in strong. Twins are reviewing multiple offers which "exceeded expectations" per mlbtraderumors

I'd rather have Scherzer with an extension.
Paul D - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#403722) #
Robothal reporting Scherzer to the Pads.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#403723) #
Trade activity since June 1st:

In -
OF Corey Dickerson
P Brad Hand
P Trevor Richards
P Adam Cimber
P Jacob Barnes
P Bowden Francis (minors)

Out -
C Riley Adams
1B Rowdy Tellez
2B Joe Panik
P T.J. Zeuch
P Joel Payamps
P Ty Tice
P Andrew McInvale (minors)

24 hours to go...
hypobole - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#403724) #
his K rate has dropped from 33% to 23%, just a tad worse than his career 24%.

scottt, you are only deluding yourself with that career stat. Stats from 2011 to 2015, when a majority of his use was as a starter, are meaningless in 2021.

Over the past 5 seasons, 2016 to 2020, he was used exclusively in relief. His K% ranged from a low of 11.18 to a high of 13.25. It's 8.86% this year.

Michael - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#403725) #
I expect that we might not see anything else, or might see another deal like Hand.

The reports that "The Blue Jays have been taking proposals for both Ray and Semien (Dave Perkins only)" make sense as you should always be willing to listen to deals on anyone, and players that could be FA and are very good this year clearly have value. The Jays shouldn't be motivated sellers, and if anything should be un-motivated sellers, but if someone is willing to overpay by a lot then you should do the deal. Like if the Padres said here's Gore + Abrams + Campusano + Hassell for Semien you would obviously do the deal immediately. FWIW trade evaluator says you should do the deal for any one of those guys 1:1, so if you got 2 or 3 or 4 of them clearly you'd likely do it no matter the impact to this season. And even in this season with Biggio back to 2b and Espinal at 3b you are clearly weaker than with Semien, but it isn't impossible to win. But it all depends on the value. So I don't expect them to trade either of those, but listening to offers and seeing what is out there is always worth doing.
bpoz - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#403726) #
R Adams was striking out at over 35% in AA and AAA. He has only burned 1 option so he has about 600-700 ABs in the minors left to improve on that. Also correct any flaws in his defense.

Hope the team will be happy to play in Toronto again. The fans will always come to see a winning team. We have Vlad, Bo etc... and hopefully Springer. Those elite players plus winning will bring in the fans.

For next year. We will know soon enough who is on the team and what we lost from 2021. Atkins will figure out if he has to replace Semien. The rotation will still be a work in progress IMO. The pen HAS to become reliable. This year a lot of money spent on pitching that failed.

85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#403727) #
Everyone tends to remember the suggestions they made that are going well while heaping scorn on the FO but have amnesia with the ones that have gone south - some wanted the Jays to take on David Price's contract this past winter - well look at the year he's having - I would not be surprised if the Dodgers release him this winter and eat his 2022 contract.
scottt - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#403728) #
That 8% figure is the K rate minus the walk rate.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#403729) #
I'm a bit confused at using Price as your example. Is he pitching up to his contract? Nope. Is he release-worthy? Nope. Unless I'm looking at the wrong player page.
cascando - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#403730) #
some wanted the Jays to take on David Price's contract this past winter - well look at the year he's having - I would not be surprised if the Dodgers release him this winter and eat his 2022 contract.

Price's year looks decent to me. Since he has moved to the rotation in the last week or so his results have been solid. I don't think anyone who was particularly pro-Price before would feel that they were wrong. He might even be a decent deadline target if the Dodgers get Scherzer or Berrios.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#403731) #
Yeah, dumping on the Price idea seems silly to me. I was very pro trading for him and paying 1/2 his salary (as that is all the Dodgers are paying him with the Red Sox paying the rest). He was mainly in the pen due to their crazy depth but now with Bauer out and injuries he is in the rotation and in 3 starts he has thrown 12 2/3 IP 10 H 4 R/ER 3 BB 11 SO 2.84 ERA. I'd call that decent. I'd be very happy with that in the rotation instead of the Kay/Thornton/Zeuch starts (11 starts). Funny, forgot Roark only had 1 start - sure felt like more.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#403732) #
I've seen enough of Roark to last 3 lifetimes.

One thing that should be noted about Price is that part of the reason he was bullpen bound was because of him opting out in 2020, and his recent injury history. Then, in the bullpen, he did get injured. Having said that, I was still in on a subsidized Price in the offseason. Not Full-Dodgers-rate, but something significant.

In fairness to 85bluejay, though, his point is right even if the example was a bit hyperbolic - we tend to remember our successful ideas (personnel or strategic) better than our busts. That's why I'm amused when someone takes a little poke at someone else's hobby horse (as long as it's playful, not mean-spirited). My own personal hypothetical would be if Biggio makes an error at two positions, and someone sends out a "Supersub!" post. I'd have a good chuckle at myself over that one.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#403733) #
So according to your projections... Danny Jansen will be as valuable the rest of the way as Nelson Cruz. Ok then.
Position matters. Teams can rotate through DH. Putting a player so defensively challenged they don't even play 1B anymore at C is likely to result in multiple passed balls, baserunners could steal at will, etc..

Can Nelson Cruz (at this point of his career) block pitches in the dirt and throw out runners? How bad would a team of 8 Nelson Cruzes in the field (assuming league average pitching) be vs. 8 Danny Jansens? IMHO, it wouldn't be close. They'd give up MORE runs than the batting prowess difference between Cruz and Jansen could make up.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#403734) #
I would pay a lot of imaginary money to see a team of 8 Jansens take on a team of 8 Cruzes
Mike Green - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#403735) #
Who's pitching for the Jansens and the Cruzes? I nominate Dallas Keuchel to maximize the ball-in-play fun. 
GabrielSyme - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#403736) #
Looking at the three trades for relief help, I think getting Brad Hand is the least impressive deal. Based on his current performance, he's simply not as good as Richards or Cimber. All of Hand's estimators: xERA, FIP, SIERA, xFIP, are in the 4s. And he's a pure rental so even if (on the off chance) he recaptures his elite ability, there's limited upside.

In terms of the players traded, the Cimber deal was extremely good for the Jays. I didn't like the Richards deal at the time because I thought Tellez wasn't far off being a contributor this season. Richards has looked better than I expected as a Jay, but Tellez is currently tearing it up for Milwaukee, so I don't see any reason to change my view of that trade.

Adams isn't as valuable as Tellez, but he's a genuine prospect and could mature into a starting catcher. He obviously made sense as a trade chip, but I'm underwhelmed by getting a much-reduced Brad Hand in return. It seems more like a deal made for PR and to keep the clubhouse happy, rather than a deal to actually push towards the playoffs.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#403737) #
Just checked.  Cruz has absolutely destroyed Keuchel and Jansen surprisingly has never faced him. 
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#403738) #
Yankees about to get Anthony Rizzo. Two big LHB in the last two days.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#403739) #
Another solid Yankees deal.
AWeb - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#403740) #
Obviously they both pitch as case there are those who haven't seen this master work of simulation, seemed somewhat on topic with the Jansen vs. Cruz discussion. I'll take the Cruz-es. Cruzes can rotate through the catcher position when they get tired, but Jansen's sucky bat (BABIP curse or not) would somehow find the largely immobile glove of Cruz somehow.
Glevin - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#403742) #
Love Gallo... Rizzo not as much. Still a good player but he'll be 32 next week and is having second straight meh season so a real decline is quite possible.
krose - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#403744) #
Ryu looks good tonight. Not much help from the defence.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#403745) #
Dodgers. Holy smokes.
Paul D - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#403746) #
The deal to the Padres didn't go through, and now Jeff Passan reports Dodgers are trying to get Scherzer and Turner
Magpie - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#403748) #
Dodgers. Holy smokes.

Corey Seager is probably back in about a week. I wonder what the plan is.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#403749) #
On a different note: nice and sad to see DeMarlo Hale getting a chance to manage Cleveland for the rest of the season, sad due to Terry Francona needing the season off due to health concerns.  Not the way you want someone to get a job.  But at least it is a guy who was good here iirc and deserves a shot.
Chuck - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#403750) #
Corey Seager is probably back in about a week. I wonder what the plan is.

Turner does have CF on his CV, but he seems far too good to waste in a Kiki Hernandez/Chris Taylor role.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#403751) #
They were 18-10 in blowouts before today.  If the score holds, the Jays will be 6-9 vs. the Sox with an 86-66 RS/RA.  It's hard to do that.
Chuck - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#403752) #
Pythagoras rears his ugly head again.
92-93 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#403753) #
The plan for now is to stop starting Billy McKinney every day and the Dodgers will take it from there. McKinstry has been playing a lot too.

Tellez with a double and a HR batting 4th for MIL, up to .240/.313/.423 on the year.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#403754) #
I'd say it's more Death of Pythagoras. Damned Cylon.
Magpie - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#403755) #
More than 300 comments? I'm declaring tonight's game won and putting up tomrrow's game thread right now.
mathesond - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#403756) #
"I'm declaring tonight's game won..."

Really, Mags? This game is being played in Fenway, after all.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#403757) #
With the Dodgers the plan is - all stars at every position, every rotation slot, and throughout the bullpen and bench.  If you can afford it why not?  Much like the Yankees in the late 90's, early 00's.

I'm just hoping the Jays don't lose too many decent prospects in an effort to win now.  I wasn't happy at first with Riley Adams going away, but he was just 20th on the Jays prospect list at, and was 5th on the Jays depth chart behind the plate. He was rated a 40 as a prospect, good but not great.  No better than 14th on the Jays list, maybe as low as 28th.  IE: ideal cost for a rental, just was hoping for something more than Hand for him.

Meanwhile for Scherzer & Turner the cost appears to be Gerardo Carrillo (40+)Donovan Casey (unranked), Josiah Gray (55, #1 Dodgers prospect), and  Keibert Ruiz (50).  Equivalent would be Pearson (55), Gabriel Moreno (50), CJ Van Eyk (40+), and a low ranked OF prospect in AA.  No thanks.
Magpie - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#403758) #
This game is being played in Fenway, after all.

Oh gosh, and here comes Dolis. Stay tuned....
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#403759) #
“Equivalent would be Pearson (55), Gabriel Moreno (50), CJ Van Eyk (40+), and a low ranked OF prospect in AA. No thanks. e Pearson (55), Gabriel Moreno (50), CJ Van Eyk (40+), and a low ranked OF prospect in AA. No thanks.”

Switch Kirk and Moreno and you have a deal. Resign Scherzer. Move Bichette to 3rd.
Parker - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#403760) #
With San Diego apparently losing out on Scherzer, hopefully they'll panic and offer the world for Berrios. I don't want to see Berrios going anywhere in the AL East, unless Baltimore is making some kind of insane dark-horse push to acquire him.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#403761) #
Kirk is also a 50 so yeah, that also would be the equivalent. Have the Jays ever had two 50's as catching prospects at the same time before? Weird. Not complaining. Delgado was the best ever due 100% to his bat, thus why he quickly moved to LF, then 1B.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#403762) #
Love how the Dodgers just plunged the dagger into the Padres heart on Max Scherzer - that's got to hurt.
Kasi - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#403763) #
Red Sox got Schwarber too.
John Northey - Thursday, July 29 2021 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#403764) #
have I mentioned how much I would like radical realignment where the Jays don't have to be in the same division with the Yankees & Red Sox & Rays? The Red Sox gave up Aldo Ramirez - a 40+ prospect who is in A ball (20 year old pitcher). Red Sox also dumped Brandon Workman (lifetime 112 ERA+, 147 in the pen since he stopped starting games at all, but super wild this year with over 7 walks per 9 innings). Royals dumped Danny Duffy (a solid 2 WAR pitcher so far this year) to the Dodgers for a player to be named later.
uglyone - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#403766) #
"So according to your projections... Danny Jansen will be as valuable the rest of the way as Nelson Cruz. Ok then."

Ah the difference between DH offense/no defense and catcher defense/avg offense.
Michael - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#403768) #
Yeah on the division realignment if the Jays were in the AL Central and been as good as they've been in the past 20 years they would be a dynasty with playoff teams nearly every year. There are a lot of times since 2000 where the Jays have one of the top 8 teams in baseball but not near the top of AL East/WC, and an unbalanced schedule with more of AL Central would be good for juicing their record.

Of course, being in the AL East just makes it that much better when the Jays do have success. For a long time the AL East has been the best division in baseball, although the last few years have had the NL West look better thanks largely to LA acting like the big market team they are. That is a path that is also open to the Jays, given their market advantages, should they so choose to pursue it.
hypobole - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#403770) #
"So according to your projections... Danny Jansen will be as valuable the rest of the way as Nelson Cruz. Ok then."

The 3 ROS projections at FG have Cruz WAR as 1.1, 1.0, 1.1.
Jansen as 0.6, 0.4, 0.5.

And that's with 95/96 wRC+ batting line for Danny, which he hasn't reached since 2018.
mathesond - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#403772) #
Yeah, but that defense!
Mike Green - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#403774) #
Oh, all the killjoys.  Jansen is on the IL.  As a result, the ROS are based on 89-140 PAs for Danny rather than 184-223 for Nelson.

FWIW, if Team Jansen has Dannyclone1 pitching and Team Cruz has Nelsonclone1 pitching, I actually like Team Jansen.  I figure that Jansen would be a much, much better pitcher than Cruz at this point, and that combined with the defence would be enough.  There would be a lot of 15-13 games though and frankly, I wouldn't want to see too many of those. 
hypobole - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#403777) #
How much would Danny play the ROS, even if healthy?

If McGuire keeps hitting, he'll get plenty of starts vs RHP's. There is also a percentage of possibility Kirk stays up and Danny is optioned.

Danny was healthy the past 2 seasons, but still ended up with 200 fewer PA's than Cruz.
bpoz - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#403779) #
Ryu pitched and McGuire caught. It worked well. The catcher working well with the pitching staff is a non statistical but very valuable factor.
vw_fan17 - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#403783) #
With the Dodgers the plan is - all stars at every position, every rotation slot, and throughout the bullpen and bench.  If you can afford it why not?  Much like the Yankees in the late 90's, early 00's.
Reminds me of this:

Blue Jays at Red Sox, July 26-29 | 328 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.