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Who wrote that tired sea song
Set on this peaceful shore
You think you've heard this one before

It's major league baseball. In Toronto.

The Kansas City Royals are the first visitors to the Rogers Centre since Clay Buchholz beat Blake Snell to end his MLB career on a high note. Gosh, it was almost six years ago when the young Royals defeated the veteran Blue Jays in the 2015 ALCS (as opposed to 1985, when the veteran Royals beat the young Blue Jays.) No one from that 2015 Blue Jays team is on the current roster, but Salvador Perez is still catching for the Royals. Wade Davis and Greg Holland have returned to the bullpen. Danny Duffy was in the rotation until just yesterday, when he was traded to the Dodgers. The Royals slipped into irrelevance even quicker than the Blue Jays, and they fell even further, with a pair of 100 loss seasons. And their rebuild doesn't seem as far along. But flags fly forever.

The Jays ventured into Missouri back in April and it did not go well. The Royals abused Antony Kay in the Friday night game. The two teams split a double-header the next day: Steven Matz was pretty much unhittable in the opener, but the Royals walked it off against Joel Payamps in the night cap. On Sunday afternoon, Robbie Ray and Brady Singer exchanged zeroes for a while and then turned the game over to the bullpens. Salvador Perez hit a two-run homer off T.J. Zeuch to account for all the runs that would score this day.

So, as always when the Royals are involved, a little payback is called for.


Fri Jul 30 - Lynch (1-2, 7.88) vs Stripling (3-6, 4.84)
Sat Jul 31 - Minor (8-8, 5.32) vs Manoah (2-1, 2.90)
Sun Aug 1 - Keller (7-9, 5.55) vs Berrios (7-5, 3.48)
Kansas City at Toronto, July 30-August 1 | 118 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#403944) #
Fun game. Espinal pulls a Freddy Galvis to end it.
greenfrog - Friday, July 30 2021 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#403946) #
I’m pretty excited about the next couple of months. After everything the team has been through, I think the FO did the right thing by going the extra mile to improve the roster. Now the team needs to go out, play hard, stay healthy, get a bit lucky, and see where they end up in early October.
StephenT - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#403954) #
The Jays arrived in TO at maybe ~3am? Friday.
I'd have thought they'd go directly to a hotel to get some sleep, but no.
According to the telecast, they first bused to the dome.
So at ~4:30am they were checking out their lockers, some went on to the field, and the manager was playing his bongo drums.
One player said he later woke up to the news of the Berrios trade (that would be after ~12:30pm).
I can see why they like their life.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#403956) #
The Hand and Romano innings were a bit shaky, but overall a pretty good game.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#403964) #
I wonder if there will be a spillover effect from this trade deadline to free agency this off-season. Teams may be willing offer more money/years to free agents knowing that if they miss out on those acquisitions, they may have to pay a steep price in prospects to acquire players via trade.
bpoz - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#403966) #
1st game back in Toronto. Sorry to talk politics (covid).

I think that in the USA the state governor decides on attendance restrictions at baseball games. In Canada I think the federal govt decides on attendance restrictions.

If I am correct then attendance revenue for the Jays is less than for USA teams. A crucial budget factor.
Paul D - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#403967) #
So who's up and down? Snead, Chatwood, Davis out, Berrios, Soria, Hand and Monoah back on the roster? I assume another reliever is being dropped
electric carrot - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#403968) #
Worth noting when speaking of Jays and the wild card. They are only two games behind in the loss column. Because they have more games in hand their fate is more tied to their own play than that of other teams.
Chuck - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#403969) #
Murphy down. Or did that predate the deadline transactions?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#403970) #
Because the Jays were unable to acquire Gallo or otherwise upgrade the offense, they are going to depend a lot on Gurriel and Grichuk over the next couple of months. Hopefully the Jays can eke out at least a .750 OPS from each player over that stretch.
92-93 - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#403971) #
If we're sending out hopes and prayers, can it at least be for players to hit at their career norms, and not below them?

A healthy Dickerson will eat into the playing time of Grichuk and Gurriel. Lourdes is hitting .302/.341/.502 since May 14th with an 18.6 K%.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#403973) #
Speak for yourself, 92-93. This year Gurriel Jr. has an OPS of 712 (all games count, not just the most recent ones). I think the Jays are good enough to make the postseason; I just want Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk to be adequate and not torpedo the season. We've all seen what happens to the bottom half of the lineup when "bad Gurriel Jr." and "bad Grichuk" ply their trade for a month or two.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#403974) #
Ben Wagner seems like a nice guy, but his rhythm is just uneven and jumbled. At key moments in the game, however, he does provide a dramatic rise that works well enough.

At a minimum, Wagner needs a partner. Vin Scully announced games solo. Frankly, nobody else has good reason to do so.

In the beginning, I was very unhappy that the television audio feed would substitute for a radio broadcast. Actually, I am more displeased with this new arrangement.

Dan Shulman is preferable to all other choices, under any format.

92-93 - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#403975) #
Indeed we have, and the Jays were 20-16 and 1.5 GB of first place on May 14th when Gurriel had a .492 OPS. Since then he's been great.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#403976) #
It's true that you can find a few delicious cherries this time of year if you know where to pick them.
92-93 - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#403977) #
The Jays have doubleheaders on August 7th and August 10th, so it looks like the 6-man rotation will stick around until then at the very least. The question becomes what to do after that if everyone is rolling and healthy - do you send Manoah to the bullpen to limit his innings? Do Stripling and Matz become tandem SPs? Also, does Hatch still need to be stretched out, or can he start being integrated as a reliever? Do they even need him as an RP anymore, especially with Axford putting up good numbers in AAA?
92-93 - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#403978) #
The cherry picking is pretending that Gurriel's seasonal line matters more than the last 2.5 months or his career stats. The team did just fine while he was awful, that's a fact.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#403980) #
"he's been great"

0.1 WAR
Glevin - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#403982) #
If Espinal plays more third, it gives the Jays more OF flexibility with Biggio and soon Dickerson being able to play there. Grichuk and Gurriel are fine but you don't want to have to play them when they are slumping.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#403983) #
Without a new CBA, there is not telling where we are heading.

Covid-19 is not over yet. Revenues are still down from 2019 level.

The best position players are the young ones.
It's not that clear cut with pitching.
You try to get some predictable guys and make in-season trades if you have to.

Spifficus - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#403987) #
I didn't know Gurriel would spark this much emotion.

He's a perfectly adequate 3rd-best OF on the team, who is especially streaky, and isn't a particularly good fielder. None of that has been changed by 2021. Grichuk is similar, but with more fielding and less bat. DIckerson is the left-handed version of this (though I can't speak for the streakiness). If someone goes ice-cold, there's enough left to mix and match. If someone gets hot, you rid them until they're not.
Nigel - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#403989) #
You can cherry pick your numbers with any player. But Gurriel is such an extreme example. You can put bookends around long stretches where he’s been an above average to good player (never great once defence and base running are accounted for) and similar stretches where he’s unplayable. Of course, it appears that those stretches all evens out to something like a 1.5-2 WAR player. Someone who, in a perfect world you would have upgraded to Gallo, but I can understand prioritizing pitching in the short term even if I think the better offseason plan is to try and find a LHH outfielder whose offence tilts a little to OBP.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#403991) #
Berrios sounds happy enough to join the team.
I think he's the first Puerto Rican  on Montoyo's Blue Jays.

Also, whenever Soria throw to Kirk, we'll have an all-Mexican battery.
Would that be a franchise first?

Mike Green - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#403998) #
Speaking of COVID, compliance with the mask rules at the RC seemed to be very spotty.  Perhaps everyone was nursing their peanuts, and I just couldn't see it.
uglyone - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#403999) #
As for 3B you'd think that it would make sense to give Smith a look at some point.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#404005) #
Rod Barajas and Ricky Romero were teammates. Both were born in California, with parents all born in Mexico. (Barajas played for Mexico in the 2009 WBC.)
Nigel - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#404010) #
I’m hoping that Charlie realizes, sooner rather than later, that Kirk’s proper place in the lineup isn’t 9th.
Kasi - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#404011) #
I don’t mind putting him there as a wrap around player. Still at best he’s going to be what 6th so it’s not that huge a difference.

Anyway it seems Springer is a pretty good player I hear.
Gerry - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#404013) #
The forgotten bullpen guy, CJ Edwards, pitched an inning in the FCL today. Between him, Tommy Milone and John Axford, there is a squeeze coming.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#404014) #
Salvator Perez fist bumped Manoah after hitting a fly ball.

What a difference from that suspension for nailing one of the Orioles' worst hitter.

Spifficus - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#404015) #
Borucki in for Taylor and 2 lefties was good usage by Montoyo. I figured I'd say it, since I was so frustrated by the Alonzo shenanigans.
hypobole - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#404016) #
I used to like Borucki
Spifficus - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#404018) #
I haven't stopped liking him, but he's definitely a bit out of sorts at the moment.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#404019) #
A reliever who throws strikes can be a lot of fun.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#404023) #
Kirk hits well but doesn't run well. It's easier to pitch run for him in the 9th spot since it doesn't leave McGuire batting 6th.
Also, getting on base in front of Springer-Guerrero is not a bad thing at all.

StephenT - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#404024) #
Berrios last pitched Sat July 24 (7IP, 2R, 4K, 0BB, 0HR, 101 pitches vs. LAA @ Minn).  So he would have 7 days rest if pitches Sun Aug 1.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#404025) #
The WC race is a bit closer than it was entering today. The Jays are now 3.5 games behind Oakland for the second WC spot. Keep winning and good things will happen.

It's remarkable that the Yankees are half a game (possibly soon to be a full game) ahead of the Jays. They have a -4 run differential on the season and the Jays are +103 (almost identical to TB's +107).
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#404026) #
If José Berríos plays tomorrow, which colour uniform will he wear? We have seen the light blues for 2 games. I vote for the whites on Sunday. And that jacket, too.

Alek Manoah was fast and excellent today.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#404027) #
All Yankees game are close games.
scottt - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#404028) #
They would like to get Berrios back to a regular schedule ASAP.
The problem is getting him to Toronto while clearing the Covid protocols.

Cimber showed a lot of emotions striking out 4 to end the game.
Those guys are playing meaningful baseball and want to win.

Gerry - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#404029) #
Berrios and Soria are in Toronto. I believe that means Berrios starts tomorrow.
Thomas - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#404030) #
Mike, I was at today's game. The rule that you should have your mask on except when eating or drinking is viewed (at least in my section) appeared to be viewed by about half the people as essentially a you don't have to wear your mask when sitting in your seat rule. (In that way, it's pretty similar to how it functions in practice in movie theatres or the policies in indoor dining situations.)

Some ushers have handheld signs that say "Face masks on please." However, given the compliance rates and the relative lack of power of ushers, I don't blame them for not trying to enforce that more strictly. (However, heaven forbid I wait for a foul ball, but walk down three rows and sit in my aisle seat since it's in the middle of an at-bat.)

However, just speaking from my experience, if you're personally not comfortable with people sitting near you unmasked for the full nine innings, I'd think carefully about going.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#404031) #
The retractable roof was closed and later re-opened during the game. Is that the first time ever? The rules have been relaxed.
Cynicalguy - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#404032) #
The Jays active roster currently has 14 pitchers and they need to add Berrios and Soria.

The easy move is to send Hatch down, then who? Valera might be a possibility, but that would mean 15 pitchers and 11 position players on the roster. Who do you remove if it's a pitcher? Time for Dolis to be DFAed?

Bullpen would be:

Upto 5 lefties...might be Saucedo who gets sent down even though he has pitched pretty well.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#404033) #
I believe it is first time and boy was it cool to see happen. I believe the roof was in state of needing repair in the past and perhaps they did more updates to the rail system along with the new turf and new sound system.
uglyone - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#404034) #
Not getting enough chatter that the jays have one of the easier remaining schedules around.

Not to mention they finally have a home park.

uglyone - Saturday, July 31 2021 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#404035) #
Manoah's slider just didn't look like this crazy his first couple starts. It's an amazing pitch even at that speed. This overlay with his sinker is incredible:

Alek Manoah, 91mph Two Seamer and 80mph Slider, Overlay. 😯

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2021
soupman - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 03:16 AM EDT (#404036) #
catcher was set up way outside on the slider there. could be coincidence, or could be a tip.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#404038) #
Hatch isn't so easy, but if they want him to be a starter than he should probably be starting in Buffalo.
They could rotate the bottom guys to keep them sharp.
One guy can come up in the upcoming doubleheaders, but it's pretty hard to get into a game as a middle reliever in a 7-inning game.

You got Dolis who has no option and can be pretty effective when he's on and Axford who is still in Buffalo.
Pearson has been moved to the pen and could earn himself a spot before long.
Eventually one of Matz/Stripling will end up in the pen, but they're probably sticking to a 6-man rotation to get over the doubleheaders.

Fangraphs ranks Smith at 13th in the Jays system, but that's behind Manoath 2nd, Kirk 5th, Van Eyk 9th, Rikelbin de Castro 10th, Merryweather 11th, Kloff 12th.

They also have Bowden Francis 15th and Joe Murray 17th.

scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#404039) #
They are making plenty of noise about being finally home.

Don't worry about the schedule, the chatter will get there if they put a winning streak together.

uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#404040) #

Gotta figure those 7 are keepers.

8th spot goes to Dolis or Borucki. Maybe Pearson at some point.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#404041) #
Also, Vladdy and Semien doing the Cimber shuffle. Priceless.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#404042) #
It doesn't really matter as whoever gets to stay might not remain for very long.
They could DFA Dolis and have some fun trying to pick guys up on waivers to stock at AAA until Pearson is ready. 
Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#404043) #
The active roster is simple enough: Berrios for Hatch, Soria for Saucedo, Dickerson for Valera.

More complicated is what they do with Axford, who's been lights out in Buffalo and now they don't have a spot for him.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#404044) #
Springer is now hitting .264/.357/.584 (152 wRC+) and has posted 1.1 WAR in 34 games (26 games in the outfield). It looks as though he's now on track this season. The time off in the early going might actually help him stay fresh over the next 2+ months.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#404046) #
The A's is the team that needed to pick up Story.
Obviously, they had to give something better than a second round draft pick for him.
Maybe it's not Colorado that deserves the blame here.

Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#404047) #
They could DFA Dolis

Seems unlikely. He's pitching very well (six straight scoreless outings, given up two hits total.)
85bluejay - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#404048) #
When the Jays drafted Martin last year the consensus was that they got a steal and the Jays had to go considerable over slot to sign Martin leaving the Jays having to be very conservative with their other 4 picks to save money and the results are showing this year - Turns out Martin wasn't such a steal, so fans should not complain that the Raptors drafted the guy they like and not the consensus #4 pick - BTW, Reid Detmers whom the Jays probably could have signed for slighty underslot is making him ML debut today.

I read that the Marlins with all that quality young pitching and needing position players had conversations with the Angels regarding a Max Meyer/Brandon Marsh deal - I wonder if the Marlins were interested in Martin or Gurriel - I think this winter the Jays should work the Marlins hard to try and acquire some of their young pitching and the Jays do have positional prospects plus guys like Gurriel/Biggio/Kirk on the mlb club to build a package.
Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#404049) #
The active roster is simple enough: Berrios for Hatch, Soria for Saucedo

And that's what they did.

Hey, I should do this for a living!
Chuck - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#404050) #
And on the 102nd day, Vlad rested.
tercet - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#404051) #
Saucedo has been better then Borucki and Dolis this year, but rookie has to take it this time, haha
Mike Green - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#404052) #
Thanks, Thomas.  That's about what I expected.  My calculus is:

Outdoors offers 95% protection.  3+ hours outdoors is roughly equivalent to 10 minutes indoors.  Am I comfortable spending 10 minutes indoors with unmasked, unvaccinated people 2 feet away, as a vaccinated 60+ person?  Nope.  I'd rather watch the game on a screen or listen to it on the radio even. 

The Feds could have required that unmasked eating and drinking for the unvaccinated at least, or possibly everyone, take place in different areas than game watching (for instance, the 500 level).  Physical distancing would have been possible there.  The Jays could do this, even in the absence of a requirement from the feds.  

The delta variant is here and the feds are expecting a fourth wave in October; that's not the kind of wave we need at the RC.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#404053) #
Or the feds could have required proof of vaccination or an up-to-date negative COVID test as a condition of admission.
hypobole - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#404054) #
FG's Sunday Notes has this KC Royals quiz (no pun intended).

George Brett has three of the top five single-season batting averages in Kansas City Royals franchise history. Which player has the other two?

I did not guess the answer.

Here's mine. EE and Alex Gordon have more or less retired after playing last season.

For the Jays that leaves Josh Donaldson as the only player still in the majors from their top 24 WAR w/pictures at BBRef.

How many on the Royals top 24 WAR list are still in the majors?
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#404055) #
If there is any spreading at the RC, we'll know pretty fast.

The vaccination rate is getting there, despite the vagaries of the provincial booking system.
I didn't want to wait in a line anywhere. They called my at 17:00 asking me if I could come now instead of in 4 weeks.
I had to pick the grandkid for a little leagues game, so we settled on the next day.

Once we're down to the unwilling, we'll have to do our best and let it ride.

scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#404056) #
I think the medical staff has better things to do than testing people who are enjoying the summer.
Out of the 15000 at the RC, around 1500 are actually working.

Note that the feds control the border and buy the vaccines, the provinces decide everything else.
Ford and co. don't seem open to a vaccine passport.

scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#404057) #
It's funny that Saucedo is actually older than Borucki by a year.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#404058) #
I did some thinking about the rotation for August.  The Blue Jays have doubleheaders on the 7th and 10th, and days off on the 9th, 16th and 19th.  I'd set things up so that one of Matz and Stripling pitches on the 7th and the other on the 10th for the doubleheaders.  The one who pitches on the 10th would get the start on the 4th.  In other words, a 6 man rotation through August 8 and then a 5 man rotation after that.  I'd try to keep Ray on 4 days rest and Ryu on 5, which might be doable with the off days on the 16th and 19th.

Stripling has been very effective in his career in a relief role- in the 1st batter PA in relief, opponents have hit .241/.289/.385 in 522 PAs.  Matz has only faced 22 batters in relief- it's too small a sample to make much of it, but his numbers are bad courtesy of 3 homers allowed. 
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#404059) #
They could do a lot of things. Start Matz and use him as an opener, once through the batting order.
Pick which guys to use based on the opponents.

Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#404060) #
They've already said they'll be going with the six starters through the two double-headers. After that, I would expect Stripling to go to the pen - it's a job the team and Stripling already know he can do. The fact that he knows how to do both jobs is one of the things that makes him useful. Matz has no real experience working out of the pen.

If they just stay on rotation, we'll see something like this (days rest in parentheses):

Sun 1 Berrios (7)
Mon 2 Ray (4)
Tue 3 Matz (5)
Wed 4 Ryu (5)
Thu 5 Stripling (5)
Fri 6 Manoah (5)
Sat 7 Berrios (5) / Ray (4)

Sun 8 Matz (4)
Mon 9 ---
Tue 10 Ryu (5) / Stripling (4)
Wed 11 Manoah (4)
Thu 12 Berrios (4)
Fri 13 Ray (5)
Sat 14 Matz (5)

Sun 15 Ryu (4)
Mon 16 ---
Tue 17 Manoah (5)
Wed 18 Berrios (5)
Thu 19 ---
Fri 20 Ray (6)
Sat 21 Matz (5)
Sun 22 Ryu (6)

We'll see if they juggle it at all - Ray in particular very much prefers his five day routine.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#404062) #
And Ryu vastly prefers to be on his 6 day routine.
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#404063) #
Also, Montoyo hasn't announced his starters for more than a few days ahead all year.
tercet - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#404064) #
I'm all for tough covid restrictions at the dome, but as long as the team is associated with Kirby Snead it is obvious they don't care.
He spent the last year calling covid a hoax, being an anti vaxxer, anti lockdown and other crap on twitter.
Nigel - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#404065) #
I’d find a way to split up Mannoah and Berrios going forward. Their stuff is very similar. It would help Berrios to have a different look between them.
mathesond - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#404066) #
Springer with another TOOTBLAN. I had to chuckle when I saw him make the turn at 2nd and keep on going.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#404067) #
If you use Magpie's scheme and have Ray pitch on the 12th and Berrios on the 13th, you get Ray on 4 days rest and you split up Manoah and Berrios...
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#404068) #
greenfrog - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#404070) #
Props to Santiago Espinal. He’s a valuable member of the team, the kind of player you need if you’re going to make a run.
hypobole - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#404071) #
Looks like the boys explained to Espinal how to handle BABIP regression.
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#404072) #
Quality of opponent notwithstanding, it sure is more fun to watch games when you know your team is full on trying to win it all.
Nigel - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#404073) #
It’s also fun to watch a pitcher who works quickly, throws strikes and can really field his position.
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#404074) #
Yeah he certainly aces the eye test.
mathesond - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#404075) #
So, bring out Berrios for the 7th?
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#404076) #
Welcome to Toronto, Mr.Berrios.
Nigel - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#404077) #
Sal Perez’s defensive reputation greatly exceeds his defensive skills.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#404078) #
I think his tep is based on atm strength
Kasi - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#404079) #
Need to take 3 out of 4 from Cleveland to be in a good spot going into next weekend.
Kasi - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#404080) #
No Civale or Bieber this week. It’s basically Plesac and three guys who are pretty bad. Ryu gets the only good guy so our hitters need to pound those other pitchers early.
Jonny German - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#404081) #
Scott Mitchell said on twitter that the Jays are going Ray-Ryu-Matz-Stripling for the Cleveland series, which is a flip of Ryu and Matz from the last turn through. The point of it is to line up Ryu for the finale of the Red Sox series.

This plan lines up Berríos and Ray for the Boston double-header, Stripling and Matz for the Anaheim double-header.

As for who goes to the bullpen, I think they need to weigh expected performance as a starter much more heavily than previous experience as a reliever. Which is to say, Matz to the pen - he’s been bad far more often than good since his first 4 starts, which is the opposite of Stripling.
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#404082) #
Honestly I would treat matz/stripling as a tandem #5 once we get past the doubleheader.
Jonny German - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#404083) #
Regarding Ryu’s well known preference for extra rest, I think it makes sense to accommodate him when convenient but not to bend over backwards. Because of this:

Ryu, career with 4 days rest: 53 GS, 2.76 ERA, 6.1 IP/G

Ryu, career with 5 days rest: 66 GS, 3.37 ERA, 5.6 IP/G

Ryu, career with 6+ days rest: 38 GS, 2.76 ERA, 5.9 IP/G
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#404084) #
A Place to Stand, a Place to Grow, José Berrí -errí -erríos!
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#404085) #
There's a couple of things to consider.

1) 0 starts in 2015, 1 in 2016, 25 in 2017, 15 in 2018, 19 in 2019, 12 in 2020 and 20 so far in 2021.

2) If you look only at his last 32 starts, Ryu has been good on 4 days of rest, better on 5 days, not great on 6 or more.
(You can't compare NL ERA numbers with AL ERA numbers.)

Berrios and Ray are horses. There's no limit on Matz who was making 30 starts with regularity. Manoah is just over 47 innings. He's topped at 135 in 2019. Not sure what is the right target for him. Stripling has thrown 122 in 2018. Quite fewer innings since then.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#404086) #
Jonny, I don't see Matz' season the same way.  He's had quite extreme home/road splits this year- .250/.298/.408 on the road and .319/.383/.511 at home (i.e. Buffalo and Dunedin).  As a fly-ball pitcher and vulnerable to the longball, Matz was specially disadvantaged by the parks.  He made 3 of his first 4 starts on the road. 

Stripling has had similar home and road lines, and basically has been the same pitcher throughout the season.  He had an ERA of 4.71 on June 5, and it's 4.75 now.  There have been the usual ups and downs since then.  What you see is what you get.

ZIPS projects Matz at 4.71 and Stripling at 4.79 ERA for the rest of the year.  I actually expect Matz to be better than that with the better home environment, but I don't think in any event that there's good evidence that Stripling is likely to better than Matz as a starter. Comparable is, I think, fair. Which leads to a consideration of Stripling's success in the relief role.
Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#404087) #
As a fly-ball pitcher and vulnerable to the longball, Matz was specially disadvantaged by the parks.

Matz has allowed 13 HRs in 18 starts and only Ryu among the starters gives up the long ball less often. But he did give up more in Dunedin (3 in 4 starts) and Buffalo (3 in 3 starts) than he did on the road (7 in 11 starts), and he definitely pitched better on the road. Of course, his start against Houston was in Buffalo and that Houston outfit will do that sort of thing to you.

With Stripling, you have this sort of Before the Great Adjustment and After aspect to his season. Before he was 0-3, 7.20 in six starts. Since, he's 4-3, 3.73 - and that's even with those two stinkers around the All-Star Break when he allowed 10 ER in 4 IP.
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#404088) #
So now we've caught the Mariners, and even have a couple games edge in the loss column, so only have to catch NYY (1.0GB) and OAK (3.5gb). And I'll say again that I still think the red Sox are frauds and will come tumbling down.
Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#404089) #
Manoah is just over 47 innings. He's topped at 135 in 2019.

He's actually at 65 IP because Buffalo counts, but even if he averages 6 IP in another 11 starts - which doesn't seem all that likely, because no one averages six inings per start - he won't hit 135 IP.
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#404090) #

Wheeler 6.7
Buehler 6.5
Civale 6.5
Bieber 6.5
Glasnow 6.3
Wainwright 6.3
Bauer 6.3
Woodruff 6.3
Bassitt 6.2
Cole 6.2
Degrom 6.1
Berrios 6.1 :)
Gausman 6.0
Miley 6.0
Alcantara 6.0
Kikuchi 6.0
Giolito 6.0
Valdez 6.0
Magpie - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#404091) #
No one working for Charlie Montoyo!
uglyone - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#404092) #
scottt - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#404093) #
Berrios looks like he can really field.
The stuff is decent, but not mind blowing.

As long as the Rays win the division, a wildcard isn't that bad.
I hated that best of 3 at the Trop, but the one against Baltimore in 2016 was a lot of fun. 

For now, it's good August baseball.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 01 2021 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#404094) #
The Irresistible Force Awakens
bpoz - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#404096) #
Cannot complain about Berrios pitching yesterday. It will be interesting to see how he does against better competition.

Complaints?? While it will definitely not count in the standings (real baseball) I expect the ranking of our farm system to drop drastically. But too early to fret!!
scottt - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#404098) #
They had a surplus of catchers and middle infielders and traded from that.
On the pitching side, they lost a good one in SWR, but they drafted and signed a dozen pitchers.
They could get a QO for Ray, Semien and Berrios down the line.

B-Ref predicts the Jays to win 89-90 games, Oakland, 91 and Boston, 93.
It's should be interesting.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#404100) #
I think the Jays will do everything they can to sign Berrios to an extension. They didn't give up two top prospects for just a year and a half from him. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to get Ray on a new contract either.

Shout out to the Canadian women's soccer team for beating the U.S. and advancing to the gold medal game! It feels good to beat the Americans in any sport.
scottt - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#404102) #
It feels to good to beat anyone if it's to advance to the gold medal game.
hypobole - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#404103) #
Answers to the 2 questions yesterday.

George Brett has 3 of the 5 highest BA's in KC history. I guessed Hal McRae for the other 2, but it's Mike Sweeney.

JD is the only top 24 Toronto WAR still active. KC has 4. Perez, Greinke, Cain and Duffy.
Mike Green - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#404105) #
I would have guessed Willie Wilson.  Wilson actually led the league in hitting in 1982 at .332.  In 2000, Sweeney hit .333, good for 7th in the league.  Garciaparra hit .372 to lead the league and Erstad hit .355 to finish second.   2000 was the peak of the offensive explosion, of course.  Sweeney's .340 in 2002 was more impressive- he finished second behind Manny Ramirez who hit .349. 

My second guess would have been Kevin Seitzer who hit .322 in another hitter year (1987). 
Mike Green - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#404106) #
BBRef's Simple Rating System takes into account run differential and strength of schedule.  The SRS leaders to date:  Dodgers 1.5, Astros 1.4, Blue Jays 1.2, Rays 1.1, Giants 1.1, Padres 0.8, Red Sox 0.6, White Sox 0.6.  There's obvious more to it than that, but it's easy to understand the urge to go for it in 2021.
Cynicalguy - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#404109) #
I guess the Jays won't enter into any extension talk with anyone until the new CBA is ratified. Post CBA, if the Jays extend both Ray and Berrios that should put the starting rotation in a stable spot during the next 2-5 years and allow the Jays to focus on strengthening the club further via free agency. That in addition to Moreno, Orelvis, Pearson and Groshans potentially adding to the core.

With a lot of financial flexibility starting next year, makes it for a few exciting off seasons.
uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#404110) #
sign all of Berrios, Ray, Semien and you're good for years with all the kids still coming up.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#404112) #
August 2nd and the Blue Jays are 6 games over .500 for the 3rd time this season. July 18th and May 18th were the previous occasions. 60 games remain on the schedule. 17 games remain vs. Tampa Bay/Boston/New York. 33 home games, 27 on the road. The final 31 games feature 28 players on the roster.

Pump up the bandwagon.
Spifficus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#404113) #
Oh for two on the trivia for me. I transposed Wilson's win onto McRae, who I kept thinking of as Not Brian for a couple mins.

I just couldn't get my brain into the WAR one, and even whiffed on Greinke.
AWeb - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#404114) #
fangraphs has the Jays with the 3rd best rest-of-season projected record, though still not favoured to make the playoffs, being behind as they are. But this is a team that will likely have at least an outside chance at it late in September. And this KC series is the blueprint for it. Win the series against bad teams (2/3 or 3/4, sweeps are nice too), come up slightly ahead on the good teams (gotta' make up ground). The upcoming stretch of Boston, LAA, and Seattle is the longest stretch against >.500 teams left, and none of those teams better than the Jays.   BBref has the jays with the 2nd best offense (OPS+) and 4th best pitching (ERA+). This is a very very good team, very much like the 2015 team who were 53-52 coming into this date. Similar results aren't guaranteed the rest of the way, but they could happen.
bpoz - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#404115) #
Before acquiring Cimber and T Richards the pen was terrible IMO. I suppose you cannot blame anyone for the injuries to Merryweather, Borucki, Yates and Phelps. But Yates, Phelps, Chatwood, Yamaguchi, Dolis and Roark cost about $25 mil this year for doing little or nothing. All the kids that had a chance to help like Murphy, Zeuch, Kay, Hatch did not help at all really. They are still here except Zeuch. Thornton too, but he is not a kid.

Atkins and his acquisition team are good at finding a large quantity of arms. They gained experience in 2019 Brock Stewart, Jason Adam, Nick Kingham and Wilmer Font for example. This year they are gaining more experience.

For 2022 I would like to see a pen that starts off successful and does not need 4-6 additions to make it succeed. That would help us win 95+ games. Also we should not spend $20 mil on "do nothing" pitching.

uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#404116) #
I just don't see the Athletics staying ahead for much long. They got off to a scorching 44-27 start, but are now 16-20 since then, and that's not all that surprising looking at their roster. And the Mariners wont be able to keep up with us either.

The Yankees are a bigger pickle. They're a good team that's underachieved AND made huge upgrades, just like us. It'll be a battle with them to the end.

On the other hand, I am still expecting a Red Sox collapse, even if they've made me look silly so far, and I don't think their 6.5 game lead is at all insurmountable. They're on a 9-12 skid lately (even boosted by the Jays embarassingly letting them win 4 of 6 head to head against us), and I expect them to continue to slow down the rest of the way.
electric carrot - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#404117) #
expecting a Red Sox collapse

I want to agree with that and I think they are overachieving. But Chris Sale is coming back and he is a big difference maker where the Sox are weak. I hate this team but things just seem to break right for them all year and Sale may come just in time.
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