Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
This is a big one. Who is in the rotation in 2022? We know 3 almost for certain in Berrios, Ryu, and Manoah. But who will be the other 2?

Here in Toronto we have...
  • Ross Stripling: For a stretch he looked like the solution - after 6 frustrating starts (3 1/3 to 5 IP each time, ERA of 7.20) he was put into the pen and Trent Thornton was given the start on May 24th.  1 inning and 5 runs later Stripling got another shot and ran big time - 7 IP 0 R.  Over that game and his next 13 starts he was great - 3.29 ERA 68 1/3 IP 20 BB 62 SO but 12 HR was a warning.  One start he only got 1 out vs 6 runs (July 19th) but 11 times out of 14 he got 5+ IP in.  Very good for a 4/5 starter, probably good enough for a 2/3 in some cases.  Then he got hurt, and only had 4 more appearances in 2021, very poor ones - 10.13 ERA over 8 IP.  Which Stripling are we more likely to see in 2022?  If you know please let the Jays know as I'm sure they want to know.  If it is the very good one then he is in the rotation.  If it is the early on/late in the season one then he is release bait.  Entering his age 32 season he is in his final year pre-free agency.  I'm sure he is working hard to get back to that guy we saw for 14 games.
  • Nate Pearson: The big hope.  Nothing to say here - he gets hurt a lot, can throw 100 MPH, hasn't established himself and might end up in the pen out of desperation to keep him healthy.
  • Thomas Hatch: Lots here wanted him up earlier but he didn't do much in his 3 appearances - 3 2/3, 4 IP in his 2 starts giving up 4 runs total.  Then 1 relief game 3 runs in 1 1/3 IP.  In AAA he had 15 games (14 starts) 64 2/3 IP 4.04 ERA 2.6 BB/9 vs 9.7 K/9 - not a bad 6th guy but I hope he isn't one of the top 5 going into 2022.
  • Anthony Kay: Just 11 games, 5 starts in 2021 and he did poorly.  July 19th was his last ML appearance.  4 times he didn't allow a run (twice as a starter going 4 and 5 IP) but a 5.61 ERA shows he really wasn't good.  In AAA he did worse - 8 starts, 8.89 ERA over 26 1/3 IP.  He gets the K's (better than 1 per inning) but also walks over 4 per 9 IP.  Not bad to keep around in AAA but I'm not sure he is even worth a 40 man slot at this point.
  • Trent Thornton: Never lasted more than 2 2/3 IP (bad for a long man/spot starter).  92 ERA+ wasn't horrid, but wasn't good either. 10 games in AAA in the pen, 10 1/3 IP 8 H 2 R 0 ER 2 BB 8 SO.  Potential still, but not deserving a lock for the team, let alone the rotation at this point.  Iffy on a 40 man slot.
  • Elvis Luciano: Looked very hopeful at one time but was removed from the 40 man roster and resigned here.  Just 37 IP over 12 starts and very wild with 4.4 BB/9 and just 8.3 K/9 which nowadays is poor.  I don't see a future starter here anymore,
Ugh. In house has very limited options - Stripling, Hatch, Kay, and Thornton are at best 5th or 6th starter material right now.  Pearson is a fading hope. 

So what about free agents? * = given a Qualifying Offer.
  • *Robbie Ray: would be nice to keep, but dang will he be expensive in years and dollars.  4 years $100 mil is one estimate, 5 years $125 another, 5 years $130 another.  You get the idea.  4-5 years at $25 per seems to be the general feeling from what I'm seeing.  His value is kept down due to the question marks from his recent past (leading majors in BB/9 in 2020), it all depends on if 2021 was for real or a fluke.  Many see the Jays holding onto him thanks to his relationship with the pitching coach and how well he has been received by the fans (his tight pants thing becoming a big deal for example).  I suspect if the Jays stay close to the best bid he'll stick around.  But who knows?  Someone might go nuts and offer 7 years or $30+ per or something nutty like that.
  • Steven Matz: the other Jay free agent.  Like Ray, 2021 was a much better year for him than 2020 (44 ERA+ after 3 years of sub 100's).  Like Ray he is a risk due to that.  3 years at $12-14 mil per seems to be the view on him.  A solid #4, not bad #3 for the rotation.  I doubt he'll get a lot of high bids and if someone offers $15 per for 3 he'll probably take it. 
  • Max Scherzer: Oh wow, now that would be nice eh?  A future HOF'er who is still doing well.  But he is late 30's and had a dead arm in the playoffs which cuts his value significantly.  2-3 years at $30-35 mil per is the expected price here.  I doubt the Jays will do that, but dang would it be nice eh?  Just work him less, and do the same for Ryu - make them both every 6 day guys so they both have some strength at the end maybe.  But will the Jays have any shot at him?  Contenders yes, but where does he want to play?  Born in St Louis I could see him joining the big crowd of great players who went there at the end for a few years at a lower price than they'd get elsewhere.  No QO due to being traded during the season. 
  • Marcus Stroman: expected to get similar money to Ray (4-5 years at $20-25 per) but I don't see a path to him coming back after the burning of bridges that happened when he left.  No QO due to getting one last winter.
  • *Eduardo Rodriguez: It would be nice to take a guy from Boston wouldn't it?  4 years at $20 per is the expected price - he is an upgrade from Matz but downgrade from Ray.  Had bad luck on BABIP last year leading to his 4.74 ERA.  Seems like a guy Walker would like to work with.
  • Kevin Gausman: another solid guy who had a career year last year.  Eats lots of innings, did it in the NL West (vs Dodgers & Padres) so he is used to pressure.  A 2 pitch pitcher ala Ray.  3-4 years at $18-22 per. 
  • *Noah Syndergaard: missed most of 2021 and 2020 due to injuries.  Given a QO by the Mets and would be nuts not to take it.
  • Carlos Rodón: was having an amazing season before injured, then came back strong late (2.35 ERA after coming back late August).  3-4 years at $15-20 per is expected.  I'd limit him ala Ryu to try to keep him healthy all year.  Or you limit his innings each start to 5-6 max.
  • Clayton Kershaw: Sweet, but he is staying in LA I'm certain.  Or goes to the Angels to stay in the area.
  • *Justin Verlander: another future HOF'er but one who missed 2020/21 (1 start total over those 2 years).  Like Syndergaard I'd be surprised if he doesn't just take the QO he was handed.
  • Jon Gray: No QO, so very tempting as he only costs cash.  He rejected a 3 year $35 mil deal from Colorado.  Expected to sign for 3/$15 per.  Has been up and down in Colorado - from 2 years in the 130's ERA+, to a 78 in 2020.  Would be solid in the 4/5 slot I think.
  • Kwang Hyun Kim: from Korea, he has pitched in St Louis for 2 years fairly effectively.  134 ERA+ over 145 IP.  A low K guy who counts on strong defense (St Louis had that in spades last year).  2 years at $7-10 mil per is all that is expected due to that.  Worth looking at if the Jays fail to get anyone else, or if they blow the wad on one guy and want a cheaper option to finish the rotation.
  • Others of note: Anthony DeSclafani, Corey Kluber, Alex Cobb, Zack Greinke, Michael Pineda, Yusei Kikuchi.  All decent for the 5th slot.
Phew.  Lots of free agents out there this year.  Might cut the prices down, but also means many teams are looking to resign their guys or want to upgrade.  Could see the Jays waiting until the last minute to sign a 5th starter hoping one of these guys drops their demands to a low dollar amount in late February/early March.  If the owners do a lockout things will get very chaotic for these guys.

Then comes trade candidates.  I'll list a few, but almost anyone is potentially a trade candidate.  Two teams jumped out via and the 3rd via a Morosi tweet.
  • Marlins: Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez.  Via MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweet about it the Jays are very interested in these guys at the right price and Alejandro Kirk appears to be target #1 for Miami (assuming they can't touch Moreno of course).  Alcantara is the best of the batch with over 200 IP last year with a 131 ERA+.  Lopez a tiny bit better 136 ERA+ but just 102 IP.  Hernandez only had a 100 ERA+ in 51 IP and is the oldest of the 3 at 26, the others are 25.  All 3 are free agents after the 2024 season so tons of control potentially.  Either Lopez or Alcantara would be a very good #4 starter (behind Ryu/Berrios/Manoah) while Hernandez would probably be a solid #5 if healthy.  Any would be an upgrade over the batch we've got behind the big 3 right now, while Alcantara would be ahead of Ryu as well IMO.
  • A's: rumored to be wanting to dump quality for prospects to prep for a future move to Vegas.  Frankie Montas has 2 years of control left, and had a 121 ERA+ late year over 32 starts/187 IP.  Sean Manaea has just 1 year left, 32 starts/179 IP last year with a 104 ERA+/107 lifetime.  Chris Bassitt though is the best bet to be traded with a 130 ERA+ in 27 starts/157 IP entering his age 33 season and final season pre-free agency.  A package deal to get one of those guys plus Matt Chapman might work well for both teams.
  • Reds: like the A's are rumored to be wanting to cut payroll (weird in that easy division they live in but they are a very small market).  Luis Castillo (2 years of control, 33 starts, 187 IP in 2021, 120 ERA+/123 lifetime), Tyler Mahle (2 years of control, 33 starts last year 180 IP, 127 ERA+ but just a 106 lifetime), and LH hitting LF Jesse Winker (2 years of control, 140 OPS+ last year, poor defense) are all rumored to be up for dealing.  All 3 would fit the Jays nicely, to put it mildly.
So lots of things to debate.  3 teams with good trade candidates that the Jays GM must drool over, 18 free agents worth thinking about, and a few in house options for those last 2 rotation slots that are open.  I'd say Ray is #1, then lord knows what is #2.  My gut says the Jays try to get 2 guys signed via free agency if the price is right but will talk with anyone who wants to trade quality pitching as long as the price is right.  The Marlins pitchers are ideal with the 3 years of control, but I'm sure Atkins wouldn't object to a quality arm for just 1 year if the price is low enough.
Starting Pitching Options | 82 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 06:32 AM EST (#409294) #
Won't be easy but lets hope.

We probably need 7 SPs to get through the season. Probably more. After the 5 of Ryu, Manoah, Berrios, Stripling and Pearson we probably use combination SPs that can get us 3-5 innings before we go to the 1 inning relievers.

The bright side of this is that there is a lot of opportunity for anyone that can take advantage.

Hatch, Thornton and Kay have to give 65-80 pitch games and get through 3-5 innings. Their competition will be any SP that may or may not be added to the 40 man roster for rule 5 protection. Maybe Logue or Max Castillo (both not that highly regarded in prospect evaluation lists). But they should also be judged on pitching results when given a chance in the Majors. Same as everyone else in this paragraph. There will be NRIs that will get a chance to prove themselves like SRF, if they bring him back.
bpoz - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 07:53 AM EST (#409295) #
Just to add to my post above. That post was very tame.

Regarding the near future. Vlad 2022-25 is Arb1,2,3, FA. This is very scary to me. I will not worry but this is possible. A long term contract is possible. The 10 year contracts like Trout, Betts and Lindor are possible but scary. Trout's injury stage is starting. Vlad could also age like Miggy or Prince Fielder.

grjas - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 09:03 AM EST (#409296) #
If they can pick up a couple of starters, I’d like to see them try to stack Pearson and Ryu. Pearson throws 3 innings followed by Ryu for 5. Would save both arms, and give the competition fits going from a flame throwing righty to a deceptive lefty. Tampa would be emptying their bench by the 4th. This would also give us a good look at Pearson as a quasi-starter.

In this scenario Stripling or Pearson could fill in for a start or two in a pinch before they dig into their questionable depth in the minors.

On a different note, I would be surprised if one or two of their new starters and relievers aren’t reclamation projects. Walker is a difference maker so find him one or two more to work with.
John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 09:54 AM EST (#409297) #
Ryu mixed with someone would make a lot of sense. Pearson is a very different look from him - although that would be a headache for the catcher. I'd start Ryu, then bring in Pearson as Ryu has always been a starter and should go 5 regularly - 8 out of 31 starts were sub 5 innings this year (vs 7 times reaching 7 IP). For those cases you'd have someone else come in to clean up the mess and give Pearson a clean inning to start. On the other hand, Pearson rarely showed any endurance so far (2 1/3 IP his longest this season, 2 times reached 5 in 2020, over 24 games in the minors only reached 5 IP twice. Max of 6).

Last year 6 guys had 10+ starts (Ryu/Ray/Matz/Manoah/Stripling/Berrios). 4 more had 2-5 starts each (Kay, Thornton, Zeuch, Hatch), and 6 more had just 1 start (Pearson, Milone, Merryweather, Bergen, Phelps, Roark). So there was the big 6, then 19 more starts to deal with. 1 of those was the famous May 24th where Stripling came in relief and did 7 shutout innings to start his big comeback. So 7-8 guys who can start is plenty really - if they are effective at all. A lot of those guys were openers or experiments until Manoah was ready to come up/Berrios traded for.

IMO if the Jays get 2 solid starters to finish a big 5, with Stripling as #6, then Pearson, and Hatch should do the job with Kay, Thornton, etc. as the backups beyond that. It seems (according to FanGraphs) that Hatch and Pearson has 2 options left as does Kay & Thornton. I think they are missing this years lost options though so all 4 should have 1 left each. Regardless, they can be sent down to keep building up their arms and be ready to fill in as needed. I'm also certain the Jays will sign a couple of AAAA guys to eat AAA innings and be ready if needed to fill in with replacement level quality.

I suspect the Jays will mainly look for guys ready to help them win this year. Reclamation projects will be for the back end of the pen or AAA unless they are guys who have a great track record but were off in 2020/21 thanks in part to the messed up schedule.
scottt - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 10:14 AM EST (#409299) #
I see  0 chance that Ryu would work after an opener.

The trajectory for Pearson might be a shutdown after the trade deadline.
They can't stretch him over 6+ month if he has gas in the tank for only 3 or 4.

The pen is very much set.
There is a hard limit of 13 pitchers, so only 8 relievers.

Borucki (unless you trade or dump him)
(Only this one spot left for rotating guys with options.)

(Castro, Snead, Saucedo, etc...)

They need a lot of AAA guys as Romano, Merryweather and Borucki are not known for staying healthy.
I don't know how people feel about dropping Borucki.
He could be very good if he'd work with 3 pitches, like when he was a starter.
Not sure that's in the cards.

John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 10:14 AM EST (#409300) #
Of note: via the Trade Values website which isn't perfect by any stretch but does factor in years of control and contract as well as likely production, the value they put on the various players I list above...
  • Marlins: Sandy Alcantara 78.4, Pablo Lopez 57.1, Elieser Hernandez 5.2
  • Reds: Luis Castillo 68.3, Tyler Mahle 40.4, Jesse Winker 19.1 (LF)
  • A's: Frankie Montas 39.6, Sean Manaea 18.5, Chris Bassitt 17, Matt Chapman 24.1 (3B)
  • Jays: Kirk 15.8, Gurriel Jr 14.5, Biggio 12, Jansen 20.7, Groshans 24.5, O Martinez 25, Teoscar 25.3, Pearson 9.1
The Jays is to give a more neutral view on what those guys are worth. Seems Pearson has dropped drastically from 'no trade' to 'meh'.

This makes the A's look like a lot better match than the Marlins or Reds due to lower values, plus of course the Jays know the A's guys can play vs AL teams (NL East and NL Central teams play a lot vs inferior competition). Still, Alcantara would be sweet to get.
scottt - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 10:23 AM EST (#409301) #
Kay started throwing a lot of cutters last year after he had success with it because the hitters were not expecting it.
He needs to go back to mixing his arsenal better and working in the strike zone.
Thornton has to go back to starting.

Also, pitchers need to pay attention to the defense.
You can't focus on painting the outside corner in the shift.
Maybe they need a better pitching coach in AAA.

John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 10:31 AM EST (#409302) #
Scottt - dang, didn't notice how full the pen appears. Of course, the same was said last winter. Romano, Mayza, Cimber, Richards, and Stripling I figure have good chances to stay healthy based on 2021, but anyone who bets on Merryweather being healthy is likely tossing their money in a garbage can. Borucki I see as marginal at this point as he did well in 2020 but that was the freak show season, and his wildness is scary (3.9 BB/9 lifetime in majors, plus 8 walks in his 9 minor league innings this season).

That said, I see the pen as a luxury item - to be addressed once other holes are filled (rotation, 3B/2B, LH OF). Ideally the Jays keep hunting for bargains for it to fill in holes and be backups in AAA. Saucedo, Castro, Snead are all good rotation pieces. Ideally we'd get one more solid reliever who could close if needed (Graveman would be nice depending on his contract demands for example).
Glevin - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 11:55 AM EST (#409303) #
I'd be happy with Gray+ someone else who can provide depth like Cobb or Pineda. That would give the Jays Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Gray, and Stripling/other guy/Pearson/Hatch/ which I think is good enough. Obviously, if Jays can get a starter from Oakland or Miami, that changes things a lot. Also think Gray may have some really good upside pitching away from Colorado.
cascando - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 12:12 PM EST (#409304) #
I very much doubt the Jays are holding a bullpen spot for Julian Merryweather. His 13 appearances last year were the most he has managed since 2017, and he finished with a 4.85 ERA and a 6.48 FIP. He should not stand in the way of an upgrade.
John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 12:49 PM EST (#409305) #
I suspect the Jays see Merryweather like I do - if he is healthy he could be a big bonus, but that is a massive if. Useful to keep around and see if you get lucky, but at the end of spring if he isn't one of the top 8 relievers available then so be it. Same for Borucki. Romano, Mayza, Cimber, Richards, and Stripling are locks. So up to 3 open slots. I expect the Jays to try to lock down one at least with a solid guy for under $5 mil on a maximum 2 year deal unless a really good guy falls into their lap. I wouldn't be shocked if they resign Phelps as he has been a very good reliever since 2016 with the exception of his 10 games in Philly in 2020. It all would depend on his health.
scottt - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 01:24 PM EST (#409306) #
I suppose you can sign an extra guy and make a decision at the end of spring training or even wait until someone gets hurt or underperforms before you bring the optionable guys up.
In the end, you'll still need a bunch of arms with options to go through the year.
I like Hudson.

grjas - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 01:32 PM EST (#409307) #
I agree that BP is a lower priority than SP and 3rd base, but about equal with a lefty bat. The pen has only 4 reliable arms and given how many they went through last year, I'd be surprised if the GM isn't good on his word to add depth. If he has to drop someone like Borucki (or start some of those with option in the minors for a while, even Pearson) then so be it. Otherwise he's playing with fire, especially if one or two of the 4 get injured.

He doesn't need to spend a tonne of dollars on BP adds, so I think Atkins will try to deal with all 4 of those priorities; how successful he is, time will tell.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 01:51 PM EST (#409308) #
Jon Gray is one of my favorite realistic targets as well. Should have a reasonable AAV over a 3-4 year deal, and he still has some upside left moving away from Coors Field. Put him with Pete Walker and see if he can take the next step. As is, he's a perfectly solid SP. Not having the QO attached is another positive.

The SP market is going to be very competitive. It reminds me a bit of two years ago when the Jays ended up with Ryu (and Roark but I'm trying to block that from memory). The Jays will have to overpay to get who they want, but given the lack of SP depth throughout the organization, they don't have much choice. As long as it's not an overpay for Roark 2.0, it should be fine. They don't even average-ish innings eaters. They need quality arms.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 03:02 PM EST (#409309) #
Damned if I know how to project pitchers.  So far, Steamer projects Gray at 2.4 WAR in 169 innings and Matz at 2.3 WAR in 158 innings.  I like them both a little better than the Steamer projections.
Dr B - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 03:38 PM EST (#409310) #
I like Gray as well, but interestingly, for his career he has performed slightly better at home. Pick your stat of choice, but using OPS as a rough guide his career home/away split is 737/765.
Nigel - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 03:42 PM EST (#409311) #
I’d be ok with Gray, but frankly, if they are shopping in that aisle rather than the highly priced aisle, I’d prefer Matz back. Gray feels very similar in look and feel to Berrios and Manoah. Matz would offer a bit better SP balance.
Dr B - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 03:48 PM EST (#409312) #
Matz and Gray don’t seem that far apart as pitchers. You’d rather have Matz...if his 2021 was for real. And that recency shine is what his agent will be banking on.
Jonny German - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 04:34 PM EST (#409313) #
Jon Becker’s comprehensive offseason matrices include averages of various contract estimates. Here’s what it has for years and AAV of the mid-range starters:

Carlos Rodon 3 / $16
Jon Gray 3 / $14
Steven Matz 3 / $12
Anthony DeSclafani 3 / $12
Alex Wood 2 / $14
Yusei Kikuchi 2 / $9
Alex Cobb 2 / $8
Jonny German - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 04:36 PM EST (#409314) #
Let’s try shortening that link
John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 04:37 PM EST (#409315) #
IMO #1 should be trying to sign an ace level pitcher (Ray, Scherzer, or trade for Alcantara). Get that #1 guy, then fool around in the bargain bin for a #5 (Matz, Grey, etc. whoever signs for reasonable terms - 2 years at $10 mil or less, worst case Pearson, Hatch, and Stripling among others fight it out in spring for that final slot). But no question first priority, and bulk of cash, should go to finding a #1 to go with the other #1's here (formerly Ryu, currently Berrios, and future in Manoah).
Mike Green - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 05:02 PM EST (#409316) #
Becker has Semien at 4 yrs/$105M.  If that's the number and he's willing to play second base, the Blue Jays should be right there.  That would not involve a commitment that ought to interfere with the Guerrero Jr. and Bichette long-term plans. 

Glevin - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 05:44 PM EST (#409317) #
Would definitely take Gray over Matz. He's just better and more consistent and it feels like he could have another level. Last year felt like Matz's other level which is sort of an average Gray season. Would be fine Matz who will be cheaper and still be a significant rotation help. Would be fine with both as well. Jays need a lot of quality innings.
grjas - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 06:07 PM EST (#409318) #
Not sure they have financial space for a number 1, a Matz type back end starter and a big bat at 2nd or 3rd.

But agree getting a 1/2 starter is key. Then maybe a guy like Matz minus 1 year that needs a good pitching coach to raise his game …. This might then leave room for another big infield bat and some other pieces.

Bit of a tricky year for Atkins. While he does have some financial room and trade capital, which lever does he pull first for what asset and what is the trickle down impact?. I don’t envy him in what will likely be a very competitive market and likely a smaller window given a possible lockout.
AWeb - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 06:45 PM EST (#409319) #
This puts me in a small minority, I'm sure, but with Pearson, I think I take off any inning limits at all with him and just see if he can be a starter or not. He turns 26 next August - if he doesn't start pitching some significant innings now, he never will. And I have no interest in the guy as a reliever - it's not like relievers are that much more likely to give you a ton of useful years. Using fangraphs for a quick look, from the top ten relievers in 2016 (by WAR), those still around and good in 2021: Chapman (not great the last 2 years, just good), Jansen (who came back this year after looking a bit cooked), that's the whole list. And those are HoF caliber relievers if they finish their careers strong (by reliever standards...).   The rest are out of MLB or right at replacement level. Not cherry-picking either, the next ten are much the same.  Great relievers don't last any more than starters. Just coach him properly, figure out how to pace him, and see if he breaks.
I'm not saying you ride him like a rented mule - most starters are 5IP guys now anyway, so 150 IP is a good result - but I think taking the shot at a star turn for him means running him out there and seeing what happens. I don't think he'll get through spring training, based on his track record, but I want the team to see if the guy who was supposed to be a star can actually be a star.
scottt - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 07:07 PM EST (#409320) #
Seems realistic for Matz,  Kikuchi and Cobb.

MLBtraderumors has Rodon signing for 1/25M.
Gray, 4/56M.
DeSclafani, 3/42M.
Alex Wood, 3/30M.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 07:57 PM EST (#409321) #
It would be helpful for the FO to have some guidance from ownership as to the team’s finances over the next 3, 4, 5 years. It seems to me that it would be hard to make good decisions for 2022-23 without that information.
John Northey - Saturday, November 13 2021 @ 10:37 PM EST (#409322) #
greenfrog - I think they have that - payroll in the 8-12 rank for MLB each year with a bit of flexibility if needed mid-season when the team is in contention but not a ton. $150-$170 mil a year, with some growth possible.
scottt - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:03 AM EST (#409323) #
I don't know who Becker is, but I know Boras and I expect Semien to hold on until the very end unless he's getting a huge contract.

The Jays had that type of offseason with Springer.
That was fine because he was the only option to fill the glaring hole in the team.
Semien is not the best option to fill the lineup. That would be a left hitting third baseman.

scottt - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:15 AM EST (#409324) #
It's the CBA that's holding things, not the ownership.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:20 AM EST (#409325) #
Having some more balance in the lineup would be good, but the primary criterion should be quality. A lineup that tilts right with a 6-7 WAR player like Semien is better than one that substitutes a 2-3 WAR left-handed bat bat to achieve “balance.” The Jays were largely unbeatable last year once the lineup was fully healthy and productive.
scottt - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:21 AM EST (#409326) #
26 is not old for a pitcher and lower body injuries are not a big deal.
He could put it together and be dominant for several years.
He's been burning options, but not service time.
It's going to be hard to slot him in the rotation if he doesn't start accumulating innings next year.

scottt - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:22 AM EST (#409327) #
If you add an established closer in front of Romano, the bullpen starts to look really good.
bpoz - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 10:36 AM EST (#409328) #
After losing 95 games in 2019 it would have been hard to get FA pitching to Toronto IMO. With Boras representing Ryu the key factor was $ and the Jays met that. Signing Roark was a mistake in hindsight. He looked like a solid #4 that could have been a #3. Again $ was probably a factor. Chase Anderson was also a potential solid #4 but Milwaukee decided that they did not want him so they gave him away to the Jays to save $10 mil. Milwaukee made the right call.

By winning 91 games in the 2021 Jays should be considered a good team. FAs will be more open to signing with the Jays now.

The Jays got Springer because teams willing to spend chose other players. There may have only been 3 teams left that were interested in him when he decided on the Jays. The Jays probably made the best offer to Semien. Ray chose the Jays because his mission was to prove himself and get a big contract. Matz had no choice. We traded surplus unproven SPs for him.
John Northey - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 11:48 AM EST (#409329) #
Basically for free agents the top factors are $$$, years, location, contender. Jays have the $$$ and could give the years if they choose and are a contender. Location is the only negative, but not a killer as Springer showed last winter. Semien I suspect wants badly to go back to the west coast where his family lives - can't blame him on that. Ray is tougher to call - he is from Tennessee so Atlanta and St Louis are closest but still a flight away from where he grew up. He has 3 kids and is a strong Christian according to his twitter. That suggests he'd like to stay in the US south, but who knows? The Jays pushing his merch has to help (ego is a big thing for pro athletes), feeling like there is unfinished business here and the team is still a strong contender has to be a plus as well. Guess we'll see what happens.

Being a strong contender is normally most helpful with guys who are future HOF quality who want that ring badly. That brought Dave Winfield, then Paul Molitor here in the early 90's. Very few Canadian players in baseball so not many who would choose to 'come home' (ala Semien I'm assuming wanting to be back in the Bay area where his family is). Ryu took a 4th year to get him to sign (and that year is looking more and more like a write off after his flopping at the end of 2021 but no playoffs in 2020 without him, and probably not contending in 2021 either).
Mike Green - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 01:14 PM EST (#409330) #
Re AWeb's comment on Pearson, I'd try to get either 100 innings in relief out of him in bigger chunks of 3-4 innings or 150 innings in the rotation.  They do need to decide what they are doing at this point. 
cascando - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 02:54 PM EST (#409331) #
I support giving Pearson another shot at starting. One advantage of an innings limit though is that multi-inning high level RP are extremely valuable in the post-season. Seems like a bridge they can cross if/when they ever get to it.
John Northey - Sunday, November 14 2021 @ 07:03 PM EST (#409332) #
I'd love it if the Jays got gutsy and did a tandem starter for one of the slots with Pearson getting 3-4 innings in relief of someone starting (maybe Stripling, but ideally a soft control LHP to maximize the contrast). If the starter is knocked out mid-inning you bring in someone else to finish the inning and Pearson starts the next one and goes 3-4 before you go to normal pen usage. If you plan it out he'd get steady innings and 33 appearances of 3-4 innings so 90-120 innings assuming he is knocked out early sometimes too. Then in 2023 he could shift to full time starting if he shows he is ready. Of course, that also means the pen is one guy short the other 4 days, but a 7 man pen should work fine those days one would think.
dalimon5 - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 07:58 AM EST (#409333) #
Safest decision regarding Pearson is to package him with Kirk to make a deal for Alcantara. If he turns into an ace it’s ok because you got one back. This way you don’t have to trade any key piece off your roster like Gurriel or Hernandez. You also get to keep Martinez and Groshans. Now resign Berrios and your SP is set with three ace level pitchers until the middle of the decade. Now you don’t need Ray and you can spend on the infield and balancing the line up, then a solid #5 starter. If we’re already debating whether Pearson can go 6 innings or more than 100 IP in a season or even if he needs to be kept to the bullpen…what does that tell us?

Turn a question mark into an asset - trade The Big Hope.

greenfrog - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 08:17 AM EST (#409334) #
It's a good idea, but I think Miami would want more for Alcantara, who is coming off a 4.2 WAR season and is cheap and controllable for three full seasons. Pearson, Kirk and Groshans might get it done. Miami is probably angling to get Moreno or Orelvis from the Jays.
Glevin - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 09:13 AM EST (#409335) #
Tigers sign ERod to 5/$80 which seems a little high but not crazy to get a guy to sign early. Tigers are going to spend money. I'm for trading Pearson as well. Don't think you're getting Alcantara but he's be a big piece in any deal for an established player. At this point, would rather another time am bet on him.
bpoz - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 09:32 AM EST (#409336) #
Very nice move by Detroit. Their pitching is deeper now. They could challenge CWS or 2nd WC which means means pennant race revenue.
Thomas - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:01 AM EST (#409337) #
Tigers sign ERod to 5/$80 which seems a little high but not crazy to get a guy to sign early.

It's lower than the predictions over at Fangraphs (same total contract value but for one extra year) and about equal to what MLB Trade Rumours predicted. I don't think it's a little high myself, particularly given the fact Rodriguez's health issues do not seem to be a concern going forward and his age. I would have been completely fine with the Jays signing Rodriguez to this deal (I say this in the abstract, obviously there would be variable such as whether this closed the door on Semien, as well as Ray, etc...).

I suspect what made Rodriguez sign this offer was the opt out after the second year, which will let him hit free agency again at 30 if he's been successful in Detroit.

SK in NJ - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:30 AM EST (#409338) #
Agreed about trading Pearson if he can be a piece in bringing back a top flight player. I'm not sure the Marlins would have interest in him though since they have a surplus of SP's to begin with. My guess is they'd want Moreno in return for Alcantara. Either way, if the Jays could sell Kirk/Pearson for a legit difference maker, then it's definitely worth looking into. Maybe the Reds would have interest in that type of offer for Castillo. It depends on how Pearson is viewed. Does he still have top prospect shine or has his value decreased to the point where he's more valuable to the Jays than he is in a trade? Hard to say at this point.

With Rodriguez signed already, it looks like the SP market is going to be competitive.
85bluejay - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:33 AM EST (#409339) #
I am assuming the door to Ray & Semien is already closed - Hope the jays get some lefty bats in FA - also I'd see what the market is for some of our RH bats including Kirk/Gurriel/Hernandez/Vlad in search of quality, controllable pitching. I'd also be ok with the Jays slow playing the market and waiting until the new year to strike.
BlueJayWay - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:36 AM EST (#409340) #
Safest decision regarding Pearson is to package him with Kirk to make a deal for Alcantara.

I really like that idea. Though as greenfrog said it'll probably take another fairly significant piece to get that done.
BlueJayWay - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:37 AM EST (#409341) #
grjas - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 11:32 AM EST (#409342) #
Safest decision regarding Pearson is to package him with Kirk to make a deal for Alcantara.

I'm good with that too. May be adding Groshans gets it done; the FO would then have money for a solid infielder (ideally 3rd base) and for other gaps (left handed bat and BP depth). A new infielder would fill the gap till Martinez is ready and leave Moreno at catcher.

Other similar SP options would work too, as long as they have at least 2 years till FA, and - much preferably - 3.
greenfrog - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 11:36 AM EST (#409343) #
If a US ballclub has to bid 5/80 to land ERod, then the Jays probably should have made the QO to Matz.
Mike Green - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 11:46 AM EST (#409344) #
It's just one data point on the free agent market.  Rodriguez's ERA last year was poor, but all the other metrics were good- xERA, xFIP, FIP.  If you look at his last two seasons- 2019 and 2021 as he missed 2020 due to the effects of COVID, his bWAR was 7.9 made up of 6.1 in 2019 and 1.8 in 2021 while his fWAR was 7.5 made up of 3.8 in 2019 and 3.7 in 2021.  Either way, he's a considerable better pitcher than Matz statistically speaking and he's 2 years younger. 
Glevin - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 11:47 AM EST (#409345) #
Matz isn't in the same ballpark as ERod who is two years younger and much better. Maybe Matz gets paid a ton but the calculation by the Jays was right. Matz isn't worth a 1/$18.4 contract. Finances are always finite and that money can be spent better elsewhere.
bpoz - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 12:06 PM EST (#409346) #
Every year I expect underperformance by a significant number of players. Even great players like M Trout and J deGrom. Trout only had 117 ABs and deGrom 92IP.

Trades or FA signings can look great in the off season and terrible during the season.
Nigel - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 12:30 PM EST (#409347) #
If there is a player opt out after 2 years, then you cannot look at his deal as a 5/80 deal. Its a two year deal with an excellent insurance policy attached. You can value the insurance aspect differently and you'd need to see how the cash is spread out over the life of the contract, but I would guess that his deal is really something like 2/40 to 2/45.
greenfrog - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 01:30 PM EST (#409348) #
I’m confused about the insurance comment. If ERod gets hurt, he opts in. How is that a benefit to the Tigers?
Michael - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 01:34 PM EST (#409349) #
It is insurance for the player, not the club. It is downside for the club.

If he's great, he'll opt out. If he's terrible, he will not. If he's mediocre, he may or may not opt out.

It is a much worse deal for the club than if there was no option.
Nigel - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 01:50 PM EST (#409350) #
Yeah, those opt in years have real dollar value to the player and real dollar cost to the team. They materially alter the way to look at this deal from a "normal" 5/80 deal.
bpoz - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 01:52 PM EST (#409351) #
Jon Morosi is reporting that the Red Sox, Jays and Angels were all involved in trying to sign E Rodriguez. If true then the Jays had a leak in their FO which is bad. Personally I think he made that up.
SK in NJ - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 01:55 PM EST (#409352) #
Morosi makes everything up. I wouldn't take anything he says about rumors seriously.
Paul D - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 02:34 PM EST (#409353) #
I think the more likely source of the leak is ERod's agent.
scottt - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 03:39 PM EST (#409354) #
The Marlins needs a catcher. If Kirk is the best player available they will probably take him.
A good pre-arb player is worth more than a good player who is getting good money through arbitration.
Prospects are worth less because nobody can tell if or when they will produce.
Moreno looks like a good gamble, similar to d'Arnaud maybe.
AA kept JP Ariencibia who looked like a good hitting catcher but was weak defensively and his poor plate discipline got exposed rather quickly. d'Arnaud has been injuried a lot, that is not something you can reliably predict.

Moreno looks too good to trade.
I'd rather have Moreno and a 3/30M pitcher like Matz than shipping him out for a somewhat better pitcher who will make around the same money.

scottt - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 03:46 PM EST (#409355) #
E-Rod might be 2 years younger, but Matz has been much healthier throughout his career.
cascando - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 04:25 PM EST (#409356) #
The Tigers have structured the deal so that if ERod is good over the first two years, they’ll get a great bargain. Looks like they’ll pay him 14M each of the first two years and then about $20M/yr in the latter three years.

It reminded me of the Jays’ deal with AJ Burnett years ago—the quid pro quo for the opt out is a backloaded deal. If he gets hurt in year 1 or 2, the team is no worse off than it would be if it was a normal 5-year contract. If he is great and wants to opt out, then they had him for a bargain price.
Thomas - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 04:28 PM EST (#409357) #
Morosi makes everything up. I wouldn't take anything he says about rumors seriously.

There is a world of difference between those two sentences. I think it's defamatory to suggest that Morosi rose to national prominence by "making up" rumours. You're basically accusing Morosi of sitting at his computes and spinning a random 30-team wheel and then then tweeting a connection between the team that wheel lands on and some prominent free agent.

I think it's perfectly fine to say that you don't take his reporting seriously because, as Paul says, perhaps he uncritically reports rumours that he is fed by interested sources and/or reports rumours that are not vetted as carefully as rumours that other writers report are. But there is a significant difference between passing something along without doing the ideal amount of verification (to the extent one can verify a rumour that won't be confirmed by the club in a position to confirm it) and suggesting that someone just creates rumours out of nothing while sitting at their computer chair.

greenfrog - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 04:41 PM EST (#409358) #
I like ERod and think he is a quality starting pitcher. Do I think he is several orders of magnitude better than Matz (5/$80m with a player opt-out versus 1/$18.4m)? Nope.
Mike Green - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 04:48 PM EST (#409359) #
C'mon, Thomas.  Clearly he has two wheels, one with the 30 clubs and the other with the 30 top free agents.  Two hands spinning two wheels- you gotta keep both arms working. 

Rumours are inherently uninteresting unless they are relevant to action.  A rumour that a coach or a physiotherapist is abusing a player ought to spur a club, a union or whomever to investigate and to take action accordingly.  A rumour that a club is about to sign a free agent or was interested in a free agent is worth less than a nickel. 

And as for Morosi, I haven't found him less or more reliable that any other journalist particularly.  The ad hominem stuff is tiring. 
SK in NJ - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 05:01 PM EST (#409360) #
Thomas, Morosi does this song and dance every year. If he has ever broken significant news before, I haven't seen it. His Tweets are basically: insert FA or trade candidate, hashtag a team (or multiple teams), link FA/trade target to that team(s), and then see how many clicks it generates. Rinse and repeat. Maybe "makes everything up" was too harsh, though.
John Northey - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 05:05 PM EST (#409361) #
If you look above I mentioned 4/$80 was the expected price for E-Rod, but geez, making the last couple of years a player option is really dumb IMO - if he plays better than expected or prices go up you lose him with no compensation. If he does worse you still pay out the money. Not a good combination. If I ran a team I'd avoid those if at all possible. Just no upside to a team.
ayjackson - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 05:42 PM EST (#409362) #
Morosi rose to national prominence at Foz riding Ken Rosethal's coattails. He is a speculator at best.

He's a nice guy though (clearly I am not) and I've had great conversations online with him about Lake of the Woods and northern Michigan cottage country.
greenfrog - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 07:28 PM EST (#409363) #
Came across this in the BA Atlanta prospects chat (in response to a question about Shea Langeliers):

Carlos Collazo: Based on everything I have heard from the industry I would lump Gabriel Moreno in with Adley Rutschman as the elite catching prospects in the game. Even if I personally view Rutschman as the clear-cut top catching prospect in the game, there are plenty of scouts who LOVE Moreno. It’s tough to crack the top five catching prospects list, because the group we currently have is incredibly deep and strong."
bpoz - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 09:32 PM EST (#409364) #
Good to hear about Moreno.
John Northey - Monday, November 15 2021 @ 10:04 PM EST (#409365) #
Rookie of the Year was announced today and the only Jay on the list was Alec Manoah (2 3rd place votes). With only 3 slots it is hard to get mentioned. The Rays won with Randy Arozarena [LF/RF], and had the 3rd place guy as well in Wander Franco [SS] (2 first place votes) and the 7th place guy in Shane McClanahan [LHP - 25 starts 123 IP 115 ERA+]. Sheesh. Those Rays have so many prospects who make it. Guess they need to with their low budget.
mathesond - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 08:00 AM EST (#409366) #
Or perhaps, with all those successful, inexpensive prospects, they don't need a big budget.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 08:28 AM EST (#409367) #
Without really doing anything TB has a very talented and young rotation. W Franco and a few others give them star position players. So they became younger very fast and may or may not have the best record in the AL next year.

It will be interesting to see who is better in the next few years between L Patino and M Gore. Also how will Patino compare to B Snell.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:04 AM EST (#409368) #
Or perhaps, with all those successful, inexpensive prospects, they don't need a big budget.

I am sure that Kevin Cash wouldn't mind if the club had a medium-sized budget once in a while.  He's going to need a couple of rings for his Hall of Fame resume.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:19 AM EST (#409369) #
I would not be at all surprised if K Cash is poached from TB.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:20 AM EST (#409370) #
Berrios extension incoming per Heyman, Rosenthal.

(Morosi likely to confirm soon.)
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:22 AM EST (#409371) #
Berrios extended. Sounds like 7/140, but not confirmed yet.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:53 AM EST (#409377) #
As though tempted by fate itself, Jon Morosi seems to have broken a Syndergaard-to-Angels story.

I feel like the guy on twitter who breaks up no-hitters by tuning into watch in the 8th or 9th inning.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 12:11 PM EST (#409398) #
Syndergaard received an 18.4 million qualifying offer from the Mets so the Angels lose a second round pick as a result of signing him. The ESPN article I read said the Jays and the Yankees showed the most interest along with the Angels. The Yankees will probably be hot after Ray, too. Seeing Robbie in pinstripes would be vomit inducing for me.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 12:53 PM EST (#409399) #
A lot of action happening early in the off season.

The writers now have something real to talk about so I will not criticize.

If Thor had multiple suitors then maybe nobody offered 2+ years. But if he got $21 mil then he scored big. If he pitches well the Angels will try to extend him. He should like playing with Trout, Othani and maybe a future HOF if Scherzer or Verlander sign with the Angels.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 02:11 PM EST (#409401) #
I would have thought the Angels would have at least sought an option for the price of a 2nd round draft pick and $21 million. Hard to get fussed about a one year deal, but it seems like an overpay when you consider a lost pick.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 05:20 PM EST (#409404) #
Graham Spraker has dominated the AFL more than any other pitcher- 10.2 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks and 16 strikeouts.  He's been used as Mesa's closer, and was aces in the All-Star game.  I have no idea about what he's throwing, or if he's picked up several km/h on the fastball.  He did make it as far as triple A this year, and youneverknow. 
Starting Pitching Options | 82 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.