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Five games played, one win. Dunedin got the one win, the other affiliates lost. The FCL Jays join the fray tomorrow.

Buffalo 2 Rochester 11

Portland 2 New Hampshire 0

Spokane 3 Vancouver 0 - game one

Spokane 5 Vancouver 1 - game two

Dunedin 4 Clearwater 0

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

It was a bullpen day for Buffalo. It was decided that Derek Holland should start, perhaps not the best choice. Two home runs and six total runs later the Bisons were in a hole they could never climb out of. Eight relievers pitched an inning each.

Cullen Large went 3-3 with a double, a run scored and an RBI. Two doubles yesterday and three hits today make it a good weekend for Large. Kellin Deglan also doubled and drove in a run, one of his two hits. Gabriel Moreno was the DH and picked up two hits.

Only four hits for New Hampshire, two for Luis De Las Santos. Orelvis was 0-4 with two K's and his batting average is now .216. Orelvis got his average up to .240 on May 13th but his average and slugging have been in a slow decline since then. If it doesn't turn around soon it will be a cause for concern.

Trent Palmer made his third AA start. Portland scored two runs off Palmer, a lead off walk in the second, two ground balls and a single scored one. A home run in the third scored the other. Those were the two hits Palmer allowed in four innings. He had three K's. He threw 76 pitches, 49 strikes, 27 balls. Palmer has been OK in AA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strikeout per inning.

Only one hit for Vancouver in their first game. It was an infield single by Addison Barger in the first inning. Hunter Gregory gave up one run in four innings. Naswell Paulino allowed two in three innings.

In game two Alejandro Melean started. He ran into trouble in the third inning. It started, as they often do, with a lead off walk. An error, a single and a double made it 3-0. All the runs were unearned. Addison Barger hit his ninth home run in the fourth inning to make it 3-1. Melean went five innings with four hits allowed.

The C's had just three hits in game two, making it a total of four hits in two games. The new guy from the Borucki trade, Tyler Keenan, will be expected to bolster the offense.

Nick Frasso started for Dunedin and threw 3.2 shutout innings with six K's. Frasso has made four rehab starts in Dunedin and probably should be pitching somewhere else by next week. Three relievers combined to complete the shutout.

The hot Damiano Palmegiani singled in the first run. Rainer Nunez followed with a two run home run. Later in that fourth inning Angel Del Rosario doubled in Rikelbin De Castro. Nunez, De Castro and Del Rosario had two hits each.

Three Stars

Third Star - Angel Del Rosario

Second Star - Rainer Nunez

First Star - Cullen Large


Slim Pickings Sunday | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mendocino - Sunday, June 05 2022 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#414950) #
DSL also starts tomorrow
bpoz - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#414958) #
Some DSL games have started. The Jays game should start soon.
Gerry - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#414965) #
Manuel Beltre homered in his first FCL at-bat.
Ducey - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#414966) #
Orelvis was 0-4 with two K's and his batting average is now .216. Orelvis got his average up to .240 on May 13th but his average and slugging have been in a slow decline since then. If it doesn't turn around soon it will be a cause for concern.

He is a 20 yr old in AA. In fact he is one of three 20 yr olds in the Eastern League and is second in HR. I'll give him about 2 yrs before I get concerned.

uglyone - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#414967) #
Yeah given his age I'd even still say Orelvis' line is good, and probably better than Moreno's this year.
Nigel - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#414968) #
I agree its way too early to worry about Martinez but there are whiffs of Travis Snider's strike zone control issues in his stat line.
Gerry - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#414969) #
The FCL game was suspended by lightning in the fourth inning.
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#414970) #
First year that Orelvis' K% has been this extreme. Agree that it's a concern if it stays this high.
greenfrog - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#414972) #
Kiley McDaniel has a piece on ESPN in which he tries to determine who is the best prospect in baseball. Tier 1 includes Moreno and Carroll and six others. Tier 2 includes Orelvis and ten others. Then there is a list of "arrow up" players that includes Jays prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Dahian Santos (who is piling up the K's in A ball this year).
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#414977) #
Martinez is hitting for a very poor batting average.  It's a function of both his K rate and his very high pop-up rate.  He strikes out a lot and he hits a ton of balls in the air- on average about 30% of them are pop-ups and about 22% of them are home runs.  In double A particularly and in high A also he hasn't been walking much and that adds to the problem  An IsoP of about .300 is pretty much the sum total of his offensive contributions so far, both in high A last year and double A this year.  At this point, the club has the luxury of giving him a full year at double A (or even more, if necessary) and then time at triple A; he has been rushed to date and the returns are mixed. 

Kelekin - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#414987) #
Gotta love opening day in the DSL - eight errors in the Orioles vs Jays game, leading to only 3 of 15 runs being earned. There were more runs scored than hits.
bpoz - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#414988) #
Regarding negatives about our position prospects:

Orelvis has been discussed. Very young with elite power but concerns in other areas.

Groshans, Moreno, O Lopez, Tanner Morris and Leo Jimenez have not found their power yet.

A Barger has power but has concerns in other areas.

All of the above players need rule 5 protection or could be lost. Many will not be protected.
Kelekin - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#415001) #
I'm probably different than others in that I get more excited by contact hitters with great OBP skills. Teaching discipline and strike zone judgment can be rather difficult. I think the past few years, these hitter types are not as well respected in the TTO (Three True Outcome) Cinematic Universe, so glad to see the Jays have them. I'll take Luis Arraez any day of the week. If the power comes around, that's how you make superstars.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#415013) #
Thing is guys like Bo and Teoscar actually fell more into the Power but questionable plate discipline category as prospects.

Me I don't have a strong preference either way - a contact/obp prospect with zero pop is just as worrisome to me as a power prospect with too much whiff.

The key here with Orelvis is that he's very young for the level and it's a high level and he's still well over league average overall. He could stay in AA for 3yrs and still not be old for the level. That's impressive no matter how it's built imo.

Yes his K's are too high but this is the first time they've been this high and tbh its not actually too high for his power. His walks are too low but again its the first time for that too. His BB/K rates were fine at previous levels especially for a guy with this power. Yes his average is too low but it's promising that it's right there with his babip.

For a very young kid getting his first taste of a high level he's probably seeing breaking stuff he's rarely seen before.

scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#415022) #
Most of these guys are already protected and the concern should be about running out of options rather than rule 5 protection.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#415023) #
Bo Bichette was nothing like Orelvis Martinez in the minors.  He had .400 (or near) batting averages in the low minors and .300 batting averages in the high minors.  He had medium range pop and it was all built around hitting the ball very hard, mostly on the ground and line drives and striking out less than 20% of the time.  Teoscar Hernandez had a similar profile to Martinez at age 22 in double A; he was at the time clearly a lesser prospect than Martinez is and has succeeded by hard work and adapting his hitting style in his mid 20s.  Not many players are able to do that in the way that Teoscar did. 

If you're looking for an optimistic similar, I'd go for someone like Mike Schmidt.  At age 21, he was in double A and hit .211/.302/.350.  His plate discipline wasn't great (27/66 W/K in 268 PAs) and his power had not fully shown yet.  By the time he was 25, he was putting up great numbers in the major leagues despite striking out 180 times.  His BABIPs were pretty good, and let's guess that his pop-up rates were entirely normal, and of course, he was walking 100 times a year.  So, I'd pay attention not only to Martinez' K rates, but his pop-up and walk rates (I would guess this correlates with his ability to hit fastballs up and to lay off off-speed stuff down and away). 
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#415025) #
Teoscar was much older than Orelvis, much less pop, and far higher K%.


Orelvis: 614pa, 9.3bb%, 23.1k%, .294babip, .264avg, .285iso, 139wrc+
Bichette: 590pa, 8.1bb%, 16.6k%, .427babip, .372avg, .219iso, 185wrc+
Teoscar: 1511pa, 9.3bb%, 23.8k%, .343babip, .274avg, .199iso, 126wrc+


Orelvis 20: 178pa, 6.2bb%, 29.2k%, .219babip, .216avg, .302iso, 115wrc+
Bichette 20: 8.1bb%, 17.0k%, .331babip, .286avg, .167iso, 120wrc+
Teoscar 21: 98pa, 2.0bb%, 36.7k%, .418babip, .284avg, .189iso, 118wrc+
Teoscar 22: 514pa, 6.4bb%, 24.5k%, .261babip, .219avg, .143iso, 75wrc+
Teoscar 23: 322pa, 9.9bb%, 17.1k%, .359babip, .305avg, .133iso, 139wrc+

Orelvis AA By Month

April: 67pa, 1.5bb%, 35.8k%, .176babip, .188avg, .328iso, 93wrc+
Since: 111pa, 9.0bb%, 25.2k%, .242babip, .235avg, .286iso, 129wrc+

His bb/k numbers went all out of whack his first month in AA at age 20 but are coming right back in line with his previous levels since - and those are solid levels for a guy who hits for this much power. There's some concern around his batting average but again the fact it's right in line with his babip is encouraging.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#415026) #
For a much more recent example, watching last night, MJ Melendez reminded me of Orelvis. He's almost exactly 3 yrs older - their birthdays 10 days apart.

3 yrs ago, when he was 20, he hit .163/.260/.311, 67 wRC+ with a 39% K rate.
Martinez at .216/.287/.519, 115 wRC+ with a 29% K rate.

Except Melendez put that line up in High A. The jump to AA is the 2nd toughest behind only the one from AAA to the majors. Agree with uglyone it's far too early to be worried about the bat.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#415028) #
The pitching must have adjusted to Orvelis. This is the critical point where we know what we got. His early stats show that he will be super studly. With 14 HR, he has the power none of the other prospects are showing. It is a high K rate though, and that is concerning.

The prospects that I am really interested in right now is Tiedemann and Robberse. Especially Robberse. What an interesting path he has taken to get here!
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#415030) #
This is absolutely not the critical point with Orelvis.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#415031) #
Yes, he's a better prospect than Teoscar was and a lesser prospect than Bo Bichette.  If he makes the same developmental progress from 20-25 as Teoscar made from 22-27, he will be a terrific hitter by the time he's 25.  I generally prefer hitters who start out with Bichette's profile to Teoscar's profile, but there are examples of players with either who have made the adjustments needed to succeed.  It is my belief that adding power is easier to do (because men on average add strength through at least age 27) rather than the finer bat-to-ball adjustments (probably because the superior vision required does not tend to deteriorate earlier). 
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#415032) #
BA lists Blue Jay Raudy Gomez (RHP) as one of 25 pitching prospects to watch in the DSL.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#415033) #
I guess my feeling is that Orelvis is showing such extreme power (consistently up near .300iso is pretty incredible and significantly better than even Vladdy showed. It's stanton type power.) that it leaves him with two clear avenues to success still - one is his power being just that good that it can carry an otherwise weak line even in the majors, and the other being that he's got all sorts of leeway there to adjust his approach to sacrifice a bit of power for better contact numbers and still have a ton of power left over.


Stanton .300
Orelvis .289
Alonso .269 (in minors until age 23)
Harper .220
Tatis .207
Guerrero .200
Judge .194
Bichette .194
Teoscar .190
Trout .175
Acuna .165
Betts .156

This kind of pop gives him all sorts of leeway imo.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#415037) #
Orelvis' power is nothing like Stanton's.  At age 20, Stanton was in double A and hit .313/.442/.729 with a 44/53 W/K, and then he was called to the Show.  Stanton's GB rates were much higher than Orelvis', his IFFB rates were much lower and the HR/FB rates were higher.  Orelvis' MO is the uppercut- leading to many pop-ups and very few ground balls; Stanton's MO is exit velocity and a relatively flat plane.  Guerrero's is the same, with much better bat-to-ball skills to boot. 

For development purposes, IsoP is less helpful as a measure of power than HR/FB, exit velocity and so on. 
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#415041) #
I didn't say he was as good a prospect as Stanton, but yes that's exactly where Orelvis' power is sitting so far.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#415050) #
Almost a month old, but I can't remember anyone posting this SI bit on Samad.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#415085) #
Looks like BA mentioned two jays in the "15 Names To Watch In Arizona, Florida and The Dominican Republic" article as well - Manuel Beltre and Luis Meza, of course.

A lot of names of interest: Jean Joseph, and Gregori Cano, younger brother of Robinson, for starters.
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