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It looks like about half of the Omaha Storm Chasers will also be coming to town.

One should never take a game for granted, nor count one's chickens before they burst from the shell. But my gosh - when you take away ten players from the second worst team in the league, what's left is an Opportunity.

The Royals were already missing catcher Sal Perez. Now the two guys who replaced him are not available. One assumes that Sebastian Rivero will be one of the replacements, along with one of Omaha's catchers.

Hunter Dozier and Vinnie Pasquantino have been splitting time at first base since Evil Ways Santana was dumped on the Mariners. Dozier will be absent.

The rest of the infield - Nicky Lopez, Bobby Witt, Emmanuel Rivera - is intact. Witt is one exciting young player.

The entire outfield - Whit Merrifield, Michael Taylor, Andrew Benintendi - is staying home along with fourth outfielder Kyle Isbel. That leaves Edward Olivares, Ryan O'Hearn and someone from Omaha to fill in. They'll also need a DH.

The pitching situation isn't quite so desperate. Singer wasn't going to pitch in the series anyway. We would normally have seen Heasley, Greinke, Keller, and Lynch. But Heasley just went on the IL and Keller is staying home. I figure that Kris Bubic will probably start in Keller's place - he started against Detroit on Tuesday, did a decent job. They're also missing one of their better relief pitchers, RH Dylan Coleman.

It's like they say - you can't tell the players without a program!

The Jays took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City in early June. Ross Stripling and four relievers combined on a two-hit shutout in the opener, while Bichette, Guerrero, and Espinal roughed up Daniel Lynch for homers in the middle innings en route to an 8-0 win. It was another shutout the following evening, behind Alek Manoah and a trio of relievers. This time the score was 7-0, with run scoring doubles from Chapman, Tapia, and Hernandez along with four hits from Captain Kirk leading the offense. The Royals salvaged the finale on a Wednesday afternoon, driving Yusei Kikuchi out of the game while scoring three runs in the first inning. The Jays tied it up soon enough, but the Royals were loose in the Jays' bullpen all day - Toronto used seven relief pitchers in this one - and they eventually plated three runs against Richards and single runs off Cimber and Merryweather.

Matchups? I'm just guessing here...

Thu 14 July - Zerpa (1-0, 0.00) vs Gausman (6-6, 2.86)
Fri 15 July - Greinke (3-5, 4.52) vs Manoah (9-4, 2.34)
Sat 16 July - Lynch (3-7, 4.92) vs Castillo (0-0, 2.30)
Sun 17 July - Bubic (1-6,† 6.63) vs Berrios (7-4, 5.38)

Kansas City at Toronto, July 14-17 | 179 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#417276) #
Benintendi's anti-vax stance is quite possibly costing him a half-season with the Yankees in what would serve as a nice audition for an off-season contract. Merrifield is willing to get jabbed if it means going to a team with playoff chances. Such is the depth of his convictions.

As much as the Jays don't want to be counting chickens, how can they not? Some Royal is fixing to break the Jays' hearts and let them squeeze out a win. Who is it? Greinke?

Cracka - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#417278) #
Well... Jon Heyman just tweeted that many teams are still interested in Benintendi, which: "includes even the Jays (as of yesterday) as they are apparently hopeful he may agree to get the vax if heís dealt there."

Personally, I don't think very highly of this "I'll get vaccinated if I'm traded to a good team" mentality. Not a good look for the Royals either to have several veteran leaders taking a nice long 8-day all-star break. I sure hope we don't trade for him...
uglyone - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#417279) #
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#417280) #
Bichette (re Schneider/Candaele): "I think they'll bring direction, I think they'll bring accountability."

Everyone says stuff like this. What does it even mean? Is there someone not being accountable? Someone goofing off, playing poorly and not being called on it?

Atkins used similar language in his corporate-speak press conference yesterday. He said the accountability started with him and that he had to do better. No one in the media asked him why, then, he still had a job?

There may be real reasons behind Montoyo's firing. Or it may just have been change for the sake of it. All we'll ever hear are weasel words and corporate-speak, at least until someone writes a book in a few years. It's the way this stuff always goes.

John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#417281) #
Agreed Cracka. If I ran the Jays I'd avoid the anti-vaxx crowd as they'd be highly likely to take other stances that most Canadians would be insulted by. If a guy has those views but keeps them to themselves so be it, but these guys have decided internet doctors know more than real ones and are willing to lose a lot of money over it. Keeping far away from them would be smart.
92-93 - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#417282) #
Perhaps Bichette is looking for more accountability from the manager for players who repeatedly get caught trying to take third on a groundball to the SS. He makes a lot of poor decisions on the basepaths.
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#417283) #
Tonight's lineup:

CF Springer
1B Vlad
DH Kirk
RF Hernandez
LF Gurriel
3B Chapman
2B Espinal
CA Jansen

Playing both catchers at once and moving Bo down + Vlad/Kirk up? I think I'm going to like Schneider.
uglyone - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#417284) #
yeah Bo might not like the new manager so much!

and really, Bo could easily be dropped down behind Teoscar and Lourdes as well.
uglyone - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#417285) #
But its nice to see an actual effort to try and field the optimal lineup.
scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#417287) #
Bo might prefer to hit 4th over second. Possibly more RBI. He's not really a high OBP guy.

Last year, Semien hit 2nd, Vlad third and Bo 4th and that seemed to work out better.

Is today a bullpen day for KC?

scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#417288) #
Merrifield played 47 games at second, 33 in right field, 6 in center field and 5 at DH.
I wouldn't call him the regular right fielder.

Lopez has played 49 games at second, 14 at 3B and 20 at shortstop.

They seem to be sharing the spot, but both are everyday players.

Merrifield lead with 373 PAs.
Benintendi is second with 363.
Bobby Witt is third with 352.
Dozier is 4th with 309.
Lopez is 5th with 287.
Melendez is 6th with 243.
Taylor 7th with 236 (tied with Salvador Perez)
Santana was 9th.
Rivera has 187, Isbel has 148, Olivarez has 92, O'Hearn has 71, Pasquantino has 66.
Gallaher has only 42 (talk about not taking opportunities)
Rivero has 8.

scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#417289) #
Seems like today's starter is Angel Zerpa, a AA pitcher.
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#417290) #
Bo might lead the league in RBI hitting behind Kirk & Vlad. Even in these modern times, that's going to be worth a lot of money.
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#417291) #
Isn't everyday a bullpen day for KC? :)

Bo 4th makes some sense, but I'd probably shift him to #5 behind Hernandez. Still, as I've said before lineup effects are minimal. Just avoid extreme mistakes (like batting Tapia ahead of pretty much anyone on this roster outside of Zimmer). It'll be interesting for other teams to see the calm hitter Kirk is then go to the wild guy in Bo - talk about opposite batting methods! I just worry about the double plays after Kirk walks then Bo hits a hard ground ball. Guess we'll see.
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#417292) #
Checking BR the top 6 guys for KC have 1+ WAR (Benintendi #1 at 2.4), the top 12 goes down to 0.6. The Jays top 12 are all 1.1 and up (from Kirk at 3.1 to Chapman at 1.1, Benintendi would be 4th here, just ahead of Vlad who is at 2.3). Pretty much what one would expect from a last place team vs a playoff contender.
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#417294) #
Got curious - the Yankees go from Judge 3.6 to Montgomery 1.5 on their top 12. Kirk would be tied for 2nd there (with DJ LeMathieu and Gleyber Torres), then they drop to 2.2 for Cole.

Btw, for 'argh' how about Matt Carpenter - released by the Rangers in May, the Yankees grabbed him and in 27 games he has 1.6 WAR via a 261 OPS+. Off the freaking waiver wire! What do the Yankees do to get that kind of luck? No wonder Damn Yankees required a deal with the devil to beat them.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#417295) #
Love this line up.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#417298) #
I havenít been able to watch. But 2 hits and 2 walks with 5 Kís through 4 against a double-A pitcher isÖnot good. Hopefully offense is right around the corner.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#417299) #
Oops, only 2 Kís. Gausman has 5.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#417300) #
So how is everyone doing tonight? Everyone being accountable?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#417301) #
Bichette sought absolution after the last strikeout, Chuck.  The play-by-play did not cover the interchange. Espinal gave himself a pat on the back after the nifty pick-and-tag.  Accountability proceeding as planned. 
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#417302) #
I meant us, the denizens of this site. We should jump on the accountability train.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#417303) #
Nice to see the BABIP gods smiling on Jansen for a change.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#417304) #
Olivares ran into two outs so they pinch-ran for him. And then his replacement does the same.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#417305) #
Jump on the accountability train?  Sure.  I failed when I said nothing about Raimel Tapia tonight.  How is he supposed to hit a walkoff grand-slam if I've spent 8 innings ignoring him completely?  No shame, no gain.
uglyone - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#417306) #
Tough start to the Schneider era.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#417307) #
Banda isn't really fit for a medium leverage situation. 
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#417308) #
Why is Banda pitching in a still-winnable 1 run game?

Jays were -345 favorites today. Thatís almost impossible in the MLB. And theyíre likely to lose. Unreal.

I blame Magpie. He said Witt, Jr would pop one and he did for the current go-ahead run.
mathesond - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#417309) #
This never would have happened under Montoya's watch.
Kasi - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#417310) #
Yeah I thought the guy who made all these awful bullpen decisions was fired. Oops I guess it wasn't that simple.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#417311) #
Raimel, Raimel, Raimel.  You blew the game for us tonight.  You owe us.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#417312) #
Hmmm, just got beaten by a AAA team.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#417313) #
Ouch. It feels like Gausmanís starts have been disappointing for the team. Canít remember a more disappointing loss in a number of years. Brutal.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#417314) #
Should have hired Tapia as manager.
uglyone - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#417315) #
Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#417316) #
Tampa Bay, having just been swept by Cincinnati, then goes and takes four in a row from Boston.

What is going on?
greenfrog - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#417317) #
Losses like this against a weak team will occasionally happen. I think it stings more than usual because of all the horrid losses this month. It feels as if the team is still less than the sum of its parts.

Surprised that Romano wasnít used in the ninth after he was warming for a while beforehand.
Glevin - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#417318) #
Jays are just such an easy team to pitch too right now. Just throw off-speed and breaking balls out of the zone and they'll chase.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#417319) #
Maybe Schneider should ban the HR jacket and introduce a BB jacket. Draw a walk, put on a jacket and get congratulated by your teammates (when youíre back in the dugout).

That might help turn down the hacktastic dial and turn up the plate discipline dial.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#417320) #
Still digesting the field manager's dismissal...

Occam's razor? The Chairman of the Board ordered the change.

Recall the Masai Ujiri contract negotiations. (And all the bad press last week.)

The buck stops with the owner.
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#417321) #
I've recently received a couple of heartfelt emails of apology from Rogers' CEO. Should I be expecting more of the same this series? I mean, he does know how to reach me (if his internet isn't broken, that is).
hypobole - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#417322) #
The 4 worst teams the Jays have played are Oakland, Cinci Detroit and KC. They are now 9-7 vs those teams.

There are 11 teams with HR/FB rates 12.4% or better. Jays are 5th with a 13.6% HR/FB rate. The Jays have the lowest FB% and the highest GB% of those 11 teams.
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#417323) #
Well, that game sucked.

A reminder - the worst team in history, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134), won 3 games against a 95 game winner (Boston Beaneaters - now known as the Atlanta Braves - 95-57) - yeah, their record was 3-11 but they did win those 3. So yeah, ML teams that are excellent can lose to horrid teams. That is my one way of accepting this nightmare of a game from the Jays. It's baseball - crap happens.

Other examples - Roger Clemens in his amazing 11.9 WAR 1997 season (won the pitcher triple crown as a Jay and had a 222 ERA+) gave up 6 ER in 4 starts including one to the Tigers who were sub 500 that season with a 95 OPS+.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#417324) #
ďJays are just such an easy team to pitch too right now. Just throw off-speed and breaking balls out of the zone and they'll chase.

This. Iíd say the approach is hard to watch but I donít see an actual approach to begin with. In related news, Vladís new found aversion to walks hits 16 games.

Michael - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#417325) #
Bo Bichette walked twice this game. So it is probably nothing, but maybe the new accountability and/or dropping down to the 4 spot helps with that? He has 25 walks on the season.

The only other players to reach base at least twice with hits or walks were the two catchers as Kirk was 2/4 and Jansen was 2/3. At least the Jays were smart enough to play both catchers, but I'm not sure Jansen (the highest OPS on the team this season - sure he might not really be the best hitter on the team, but he's very likely not the worst starter either) ought to be the 9 hitter. In todays game it meant he didn't get to come up a 4th time.

I don't know if there's something lingering from the injury, and they'd already lost the "game winning run", but seems to me that when Gausman only has 88 pitches through 6 that he ought to be able to pitch the 7th inning. I'm not a fan of being deathly afraid of the 4th time through the order and/or pulling the starter early. Obviously unless there was something else going on with the recovery or physical condition of Gausman.
scottt - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 05:29 AM EDT (#417326) #
They dropped Bichette  because they don't expect him to walk, otherwise he's fine ahead of Guerrero.

Teoscar just missed his pitch coming back from the review. That was pretty much the game there.
Jays don't see a lot of left handed pitching and have no idea what to do when they see some.
They couldn't tell what the pitch was at all. Also, they still don't know how to handle pitchers who throw everything away.
With a lefty, that pitch isn't moving further away. You can extend and go get it.

SK in NJ - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 06:54 AM EDT (#417327) #
Figures the Jays would lose when they have their best lineup on the field plus one of their 2 best starting pitchers on the mound against essentially a AAA team.

The Mariners have now passed the Jays and Red Sox in the standings, with the Orioles (!), Guardians, and White Sox all within 2.5 games of a WC spot. I don't expect the Orioles to last, but any teams from the Central are going to have the schedule advantage with more games against a bad division, and the Mariners look pretty good now. Goes without saying, the Jays need reinforcements at the deadline.
Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#417328) #
seems to me that when Gausman only has 88 pitches through 6 that he ought to be able to pitch the 7th inning.

Gausman said afterward:

At about the third inning, things got a little hard for me. I definitely started beating up that ankle a little bit trying to push off. I was able to make some pitches, but wasnít as sharp as I would have liked to be and I was able to get through six.

Banda did seem a strange choice to me as well, but when you only score one run nothing else matters very much.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#417331) #
Schneiders presser was good. He said Banda did good, just threw too many change ups.

Nate Eaton is a below average hitter (projection) but he has a 60 grade hot Home Runs. He had a hell of an at bat.

I liked what I saw from Banda. That change up from his new arm slot was nasty.
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#417334) #
The AL has been pouring it on in interleague play.  It now leads the NL 96-83 with a 773-714 runs margin.  There's another thing that I got entirely wrong at the start of the season. 

The BaseRuns standings in the AL:

Yankees       59-30
Astros           58-30
Red Sox       50-40
Twins           49-42
Blue Jays    48-42
Mariners      47-43
Rays             46-43
Rangers      43-44
Guardians   43-45
Angels         44-46
Orioles         42-47
White Sox    41-48
Royals         36-53
Tigers          36-54
A's                30-60

In short, one extremely strong division, one slightly above-average division and one weak division.  It's been maddening how badly the Jays have played and looked lately, but with perspective, it's pretty clear that this is a very good team that hasn't quite played to what it can be. 

jerjapan - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#417337) #
my two cents on the firing of Charlie.  reading the coverage and listening to the radio, there are multiple voices, most notably players and former players, suggesting that montoyo wasn't tough enough.  

accountability isn't just a buzzword.  it's a buzzword because it has value in certain contexts.  if you preach something, your players don't follow along, and you do not address it, you are allowing the players to run the show to a degree.  i see this as a teacher with certain classes.  accountability means something quite different in a team context than it does on an individual level. 

i warn against long-range psychoanalysis, but that's not the same as processing comments from a variety of sources, and it seems the emerging consensus is that a lot of players thought Montoyo wasn't the right man for a team slumping this badly.  some posters asked why are we only hearing about this now?  to me, occam's razor implies that this is the first time this team's resolve has been tested.  last year was relatively pressure-free.  this year, the team is expected to be good.  Charlie got himself a different sort of test and the players found him lacking when they needed him.

i agree with the sentiment that Atkins did Charlie no favours with his pitching depth.  i can't recall who posted about shopping for relievers in the 'bargain bin' but i agree with that poster.  if you think a bullpen is entirely fungible, you don't pay top dollar for proven late-inning relievers.  we've got plenty of middle relief.  an impact reliever or two changes the dynamic of the season significantly.  just like last season.  hopefully we learn. 

certain teams turn guys like Clay Holmes into ace relievers.  we haven't been able to do that with our crew, so until we can, we need to pay for proven performance in the pen. 

I fault Atkins for the lack of elite relievers, but in terms of depth, i think the team has been really unlucky. 

to start the year, the Bisons had Kay, Hatch, Francis and pearson for the rotation.  the four of them have 23 starts and 21 relief appearances for the Bisons total this year, and three games in the bigs. 

not an elite group by any means, but losing your top four AAA starters to injury and ineffectiveness hurts.   the problem is not AAA depth, it's a lack of elite talent for the front end of the pen. 

Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#417339) #
Scanning Dan Szymborski's list of top ZiPS risers so far this year, it seems pretty obvious that the Orioles already have a better third baseman than Tyler Nevin in the organization in Gunnar Henderson.  It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to move up their time frame.
John Northey - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#417340) #
No question the Jays management feels a lot like I do often about pens - that relievers are extremely variable and spending a fortune there tends to be lost money. But that said, the lineup is set (only area for improvement is on the margins). The rotation looked pretty good going in (Gausman, Manoah, Berrios a trio of #1's, Ryu a recent #1, and a guy who made the all-star team last year in Kikuchi) with solid backups (Stripling and Pearson then whoever). But Ryu is gone now with Tommy John, and Kikuchi can't last 5 innings to save his life it seems, while Pearson I think would get hurt walking from the dugout to the mound (only a slight exaggeration).

The lineup? By sOPS+ (OPS+ vs their position) vs all 30 ML teams the Jays are #1 at catcher (duh), #10 at 1B (Vlad on his own would be #6), #10 at 2B, #20 at 3B (but amazing D), #7 at SS (yes, Bo is better than 23 other teams SS on offense), #8 in LF, #9 in CF (Springer alone would be #2 but Zimmer and Tapia play there too), #14 in RF (Teoscar on his own would be #6 but again, Tapia gets time there), #5 at DH (dragged down by Collins & Springer). So the only below average offensive position is 3B where we have a gold glover playing, and the backups are hurting CF/RF/1B a lot but have improved somewhat by having Biggio return (although he is cooling off lately it seems). So no realistic area on offense to improve - maybe find a replacement for Zimmer/Tapia but even then finding a good hitter who can play defense? Odds are against finding that in a 4th OF.

So Pen it is - the past few winters the Jays were rumored to be after all the top dollar guys but never could seal the deal (I really wanted them to sign Kenley Jansen but at $16 mil for one year I can see why they didn't but dang would he be perfect right now). Craig Kimbrel gets the same and was available via trade (but has a 4.35 ERA thanks to 4.1 BB/9). I know the Jays chased hard for Liam Hendriks a couple years ago - again would be nice now but the deal really seemed nuts that he got (4 years over $50 mil) but he is living up to it so far. Raisel Iglesias might have been a top one this past winter (declined a QO) but has a 88 ERA+ thanks to his 1.4 HR/9 but his other stats look solid (2.3 BB/9 vs 12.9 K/9 15-3 SV-BlSv) (getting $10 mil this year and $16 per for each of the next 3). Kendall Graveman has been decent (175 ERA+ sounds great but 5-14-4 Sv-Hd-BlSv with under a K per inning) but is cheap ($24 mil over 3 years) but he couldn't play here due to COVID stuff (IE: he is an anti-vaxxer).

And that brings us back to the hidden issue that is critical - the anti-vaxx idiots out there. It seriously limits the Jays as clearly some guys just are believing junk science over real science. Sigh. The best chance for the Jays in the pen is to use what they have better at this point. We have no way of knowing who can and cannot come here beyond who hasn't come during series which is very limited. I just hope the Jays find someone soon to help the pen outside of dumpster diving.
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#417341) #
Schneider has Tapia in DS and batting eighth today. Very thoughtful of him! It was a particularly rough loss last night.
scottt - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#417342) #
Springer can probably use the DH.
He's missing the All-Star game because of his bad elbow.

Also Biggio will replace Espinal today.

92-93 - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#417343) #
'Anti-vaxxers' are people who strongly believe that no one should ever take any vaccine. Using the term attached to 'idiot' as a slur against people who feel that mandates/coercion shouldn't be used to force mass uptake of mRNA shots (particularly for groups where the risk/benefit is poor) says more about the writer than the subject.
lexomatic - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#417344) #
<br>I had a a concise reasoned responae to 92 destroyed by this awful board software anyways I fundamentally and vehemently disagree. Mandates save massive amounts of lives and are perfectly justified under our constitution.
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#417345) #
For almost all people, the benefits of vaccine outweigh the risks and more importantly you are doing something good for everyone by taking it.  Vaccinated people are much, much less likely to end up in hospital with COVID, freeing up scarce hospital resources to treat people with other conditions. 

Here in Canada, this view was very widely held and resulted in excellent work by volunteer groups like Vax Hunters. 

I promise not to make a Tapia joke here...
electric carrot - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#417346) #
I support vaccination and just got my second booster shot. But I do think there are legitimate rights issues that are worth discussing. In the end, I don't think those arguments carry the day -- but I don't think they're idiotic.
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#417349) #
Dear Dan and Pat,

Zack Greinke is an easy Hall of Famer.


Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#417351) #
Zack Greinke is an easy Hall of Famer.

I missed it. They weren't sure?
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#417352) #
Yep.  They said that he's in the conversation...
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#417353) #
Extend Teo, yea or nay?
John Northey - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#417354) #
Despite the Jays hitting Greinke hard now I wonder if he might be worth looking at getting for that 5th starter slot. Tons of experience which is good to teach Manoah from (he is a known sponge) 5+ IP in 11 of 14 starts, today could be the 5th time allowing 5+ runs (3 of those in his short games). 90 ERA+ so far is his worst since 2005. We know he has his shots since he is pitching today, and he is on a 1 year deal so probably wouldn't cost much in a deal. Might be a good fit.

Outside of how it affects baseball, we should try not to argue about vaccines. My views are well known by now, and won't change. I listen to science and doctors, not celebrity ones but real ones unlike 10 members of the Royals.
John Northey - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#417355) #
Teo and Gurriel are free agents after 2023 - hard to say about extending them. One they might resign but both is unlikely. However, the lack of other options in the minors is a big deal unless they move an infielder out there, and I'm not talking Biggio.
Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#417356) #
Wow. Bobby Witt is fast.
Gerry - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#417358) #
Olivares has turned into a nice MLB player. He was traded for Yangervis Solarte in 2018 who wasn't all that good. Thats a trade the Jays would presumably like back.
John Northey - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#417359) #
Edward Olivares didn't do much his first 2 shots at the majors, but dang, a 132 OPS+ so far this year (96 PA). Of course, that might vanish quickly but a nice year so far. 2021 was his breakout in the minors hitting 313/397/559 in AAA. Padres gave up on him too - traded for Trevor Rosenthal in 2020 (9 games, 10 IP, 1 BB 17 SO, 0 R) but he hasn't pitched since then. So at least the Jays aren't the only ones to give up on him.
Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#417360) #
Begone I say.
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#417361) #
Pasquantino is going to be a good hitter, I think.  He just missed a couple of homers to left-field. 
Mike Green - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#417362) #
And now one to right field.  He's got good plate coverage despite the poor batting average.
John Northey - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#417363) #
Now that was more what I expected all weekend. Lets hope the Jays can do this again tomorrow and Sunday.
Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#417364) #
Lively game in New York. Red Sox up 4-3, Houck comes in to finish it. Gives up a single, hits a batter, makes an error. Yankees tie it up and load the bases with no one out. Trevino hits into the 523 DP and LeMahieu out on a comebacker. On to extras!
Magpie - Friday, July 15 2022 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#417365) #
I wonder if he might be worth looking at getting for that 5th starter slot.

I still love Zack (this year he's been lights out at home and struggled on the road), but the Royals apparently don't plan to trade him unless he requests it. He apparently just bought a house in KC. He may be planning on finishing where he started.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#417366) #
I would hope it would take a much higher upside than Greinke to send Stripling back to the pen.

More lefties in the next 2 games.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#417368) #
Here's the Olivares trade thread:
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#417369) #
Here's the Olivares trade thread: (I have attached a proper link, because I haz crazy HTML skillz)

I'd just like to point out that there are 251 comments in that trade thread, and none of them are by me!
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#417370) #
Interesting thread, but not because of Olivares or Solarte.

Some people were pondering the enigma that is Yellich.

There were promotions for Casey Candaele and John Schneider.

Richard noted "Like that move for John Schneider, he could be managing the Jays one day."
Gerry - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#417374) #
Jays have acquired a pitcher from KC. Foster Griffin was just DFA'd and the Jays traded for him in exchange for Jonatan Bernal who was pitching for Dunedin.

Griffin has been sent to Buffalo.

To make room Sergio Romo has bee DFA'd and Jeremy Beasley recalled.
bpoz - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#417375) #
Thanks Magpie. Great read.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#417376) #
He's a lefty with options. He was exclusively a starter until this year.

Griffin was drafted in the first round, 28th overall back 2014.
He was added to the 40-roster for the 2020 season, (at the time Fangraphs ranked him 35th in their system) but underwent TJ surgery in August 2020.
He was non-tendered and resigned to a minor contract on December of that year.
Does that mean he can't be outrighted?

I don't even recall Bernal.

scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#417377) #
I think Griffin is like Richards, a guy without great velocity who can compete momentarily when his command and velo are both at their peak. He's suppose to have a good curve and a good change up. 

Maximo Castillo seems to be like that too.

So, maybe a candidate for the long relief role to save the rest of the pen.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#417378) #
Soto is now on the trading block, per MLBTR. He rejected a $440m offer by the Nats.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#417379) #
What would a reasonable offer by the Jays look like? Do the Nats need a catcher (Moreno)?
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#417381) #
Do the Nats need a catcher (Moreno)?

Catcher is probably the least of their problems - Kelbert Ruiz is just 23 and pretty decent. They're set at first base, too, I think. The rest of the roster looks really, really bad.
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#417382) #
I get a minor overpay for Washington if I do (via Trade Values)...
Soto & Corbin (owed $60 mil over the next 2 years, -1.3 WAR this year as a starter 19 starts 99 2/3 IP 67 ERA+) for...
Moreno (key to the deal), Gurriel Jr., Groshans, Lopez, O Martinez - and still listed as an underpay (!)

Phew - there goes 3 top prospects and a regular but we'd get one of the top few players in MLB, one of the few worth a lot more than Vlad or Kirk. We'd get a starter who was once great but now is trash (but still averages over 5 IP per start to an upgrade on Kikuchi in theory) but might help at the back end of the rotation or might just be released. The offense would become super-scary while the payroll would grow in a couple of years to sky high if the Jays try to keep everyone (Vlad/Bo/Soto = $100+ mil combined in 2025 at least). But dang would it be a fun couple of years before then. Don't see it happening but I guess we'll see what Washington wants and what the Jays are willing to do - but no question in any deal Moreno or Kirk would have to be part of it and no way do you trade Kirk right now.
Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#417383) #
Any team contemplating trading for Soto has to approach this from two perspectives. You are either:
  • trading for 2+ pre-FA seasons, and you must ask yourself how much young talent you are prepared to part with for that
  • trading for Soto with the condition of extending him, in which case it's not just talent being ponied up, but wads and wads of cash, presumably bettering Washington's 15/440 offer
This latter option is treating him like a free agent now and paying talent to cover the two pre-FA seasons. Washington, of course, doesn't care about how successful you are at landing Soto long term, except that it may be a condition of a team making an offer.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#417384) #
If I'm Mike Rizzo and I'm talking to Atkins, I think I'd ask for Orelvis Martinez, Ricky Tiedemann, Teoscar Hernandez, and Santiago Espinal. At least. Straight up for Soto.

No harm in asking. I control Soto through 2025. I'm in no hurry and there are 28 other teams out there. I'm going to get a Great Big Package.
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#417385) #
One more factor - the Jays have 4 of the top 100 picks in the draft, plus corner OF Emmanuel Bonilla who is viewed as one of the best IFA prospects (can't sign until February when he turns 16) with a bat that is in the same area as Vlad's was at 15 from what I'm reading. So the prospect risk in a Soto trade is high but there are LOTS of top quality new ones coming. I fully expect the Jays to be very aggressive with IFA's this year before a draft comes in place (I'd say it is a near lock they'll find a way to do that) in an effort to maximize their current advantages.
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#417386) #
Hey, that is All-Star Espinal you are talking about trading there. Yep, he was named today to the team to replace Jose Altuve. Nice to see 2 Jays who came into the season not assured of a job.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#417387) #
The Nats could always acquire Moreno and move him to a different position (3B, 2B, CF).
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#417388) #
Talked me into it! Add him to the package!
Glevin - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#417389) #
Would a deal of Gurriel, Moreno, Orelvis, and Tidemann get it done? Not sure but Soto is a generational talent with 2.5 years left on deal so I'd give up basically anything to get him.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#417390) #
One problem is that Springer is injury-prone (and likely will remain so over the next 2.5 years). So when he gets hurt, the Jays need a center fielder. Acquiring Soto would give them yet another corner outfielder. Thatís why I mentioned Carroll as a good fit. As good as Soto is, I would prefer to trade Moreno and another good prospect for 7 years of Carroll (arguably giving Arizona the edge in the deal) rather than trade Moreno + Tiedemann + multiple other good players for 2.5 years of Soto.

Keep in mind that Tiedemann is a really good prospect, arguably one of the very best Jays pitching prospects ever.

The Jays should start with a relatively modest bid and see how the negotiations progress over time.
Dr B - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#417391) #
For all the talk that people are willing to give up whatever it takes to get Soto, nobody seems willing to part with Raimel Tapia.

John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#417392) #
Excellent point greenfrog - I agree that a Moreno for Carroll deal makes a heck of a lot more sense. However, Soto is one of those guys you grab if you can - I doubt the Jays will though in the end as odds are the cost will be too nuts in season, maybe in the offseason when you can take a few weeks to replace other parts but right now it'd be hard - you could trade an OF plus minor leaguers but not more than that. It'll be interesting to see what happens as Soto probably wants $40 per year in a deal which would be hard to justify.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#417393) #
The Yankees have so many corner outfielders they've been playing one in centre field. But Cashman has to be thinking of a) the package he gave up to get Stanton, and b) Soto is a whole lot younger than Aaron Judge.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#417394) #
Any team trading for Soto has to be willing to spend in the neighborhood of $500m to sign him longterm (he's apparently rejected 15/440) and with players like Guerrero, Bichette & Manoah yet to be extended along with the talent exodus to acquire Soto I'd expect the Jays will not be players for his services.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#417395) #
Adding Soto would make the Jays a very dangerous team in the postseason over the next few years. Imagine the following lineup:

Springer CF
Soto RF
Vladdy 1B
Kirk C
Bichette SS
Teoscar DH
Gurriel Jr. LF
Chapman 3B
Espinal 2B

That is a sickeningly good lineup (with Jansen and Biggio on the bench). And Soto lines up well with the teamís window of contention. The Jays pretty much have to try hard to get him, unless they can find a better trade to execute.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#417396) #
Springer is injury prone but so is Jansen.

At any rate, Washington should be looking for guys whose clock has not started yet, otherwise, they'll be rebuilding for the next decade. And the Jays need to keep their pitching. It's not an area of surplus at all.

So today, 5 left bats against Castillo.  Did I say I miss Gage?

For the Jays, Thursday lineup returns.

scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#417397) #
I could see the Mets extending Soto to a 500M contract.
Glevin - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#417398) #
Soto is a near perfect fit for Jays LH hitter with incredible OBP skills. Of course, he's o rfwcr for most teams. I mean, I don't think people here appreciate how good he is. ZIPS has him projected for six straight 7 WAR seasons. He's pretty much a 23 YO Ted Williams under contract for 2.5 more seasons. You build around him. You don't worry how he fits in.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#417399) #
If Iím Shapiro, I donít need to sign Soto to a 15-year deal. Just get the next 2.5 years of his prime-age performance and appreciate what it does to the teamís WS chances.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#417400) #
Washington badly needs pitching. Anyone want to include Manoah in a package?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#417401) #
Apparently Cleveland asked for Manoah in the Jose Ramirez trade discussions.

Washington will receive a bunch of great offers over the next few weeks. The Jays might not line up that well (because Moreno is a catcher who would lose some value if moved off the position). On the other hand, Tiedemann is an excellent trade chip. The hot stove is going too be scalding this summer.
Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#417402) #
include Manoah in a package

A player that Washington would obviously ask for. And one that level sets for fans who want to somehow unload NOT their best players for a phenom.

All the rumours in Raptordom run along the same lines. Get Durant but don't give up Siakim and Barnes while doing so. Who the hell else would Brooklyn be asking for?

Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#417403) #
It's going to be very much like the Durant situation. The price you have to pay is probably going to take you out of contention. The seller is under no time pressure whatsoever and can take as much time as it takes.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#417404) #
Did I say I miss Gage?

I assume the Banda audition is continuing a little longer. I'm a little surprised to see Beasley. I'd want someone today who can soak up a few innings because it's Castillo. But Beasley pitched 3 innings on Thursday, Thornton pitched 1 on Wednesday. Thornton went down on the 6th, can he not come back yet?
Hodgie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#417405) #
I joked about it before, but if the Jays are going to target anyone in a trade and potentially open up the bank, it should be for Ohtani. If Rogers wanted to distract from their current PR nightmare, flex their financial muscle, offer to take Rendon back in the deal and fill two needs at once.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#417406) #
A couple of statistical notes on Soto.  His BABIP has never been below .312 prior to this year.  It is .242 this year.  Is that bad luck?  Partly.  His line-drive rate is off 4% and his fly-ball rate is up 4%, from his career norms.  That will cause a significant decrease in BABIP.    The other (and related) thing is that while his HR rate remains very good, he's doing it by hitting more fly-balls.  His HR/FB rate is lower this year (as is everybody's).

All of the defensive markers for him have been poor this year.  I don't know if that's a fluke- it may well be.

Soto has 21 WAR through age 23, with time lost due to COVID.  Trout had 37, Cobb 36, Williams 34, Ott 32, Griffey 30, Mantle 30.  He's a great hitter, but you not quite Ted Williams. 
bpoz - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#417407) #
I can see Soto going to the Mets. They are very keen to win now. LAD, NYY, Boston and maybe Phils.
92-93 - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#417408) #
The Jays pen is very well rested, and they're off this week after tomorrow. There is zero cause for concern, even with Castillo on the mound.

92-93 - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#417409) #
Excellent base running from Jansen there on a very aggressive send from Rivera. His coaching decisions have been working out this year.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#417410) #
<br>it feels like thr jays often give up a run after tying the score! But don't often immediately retake a lead after giving up the tying run.
Very frustrating.
bpoz - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#417411) #
Max Castillo's FB was losing velocity. From about 95 earlier down to 91/92 mph.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#417412) #
Castillo doesn't throw hard enough to go through the order twice with 2 pitches.
He needs to figure out a breaking ball.

Thomas - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#417413) #
I think most of these packages are quite light.

If I'm Washington, I probably figure that Toronto isn't trade Manoah due to the fact he creates too much of a hole in a thin rotation, so I start with Kirk (he can spell Ruiz at catcher and DH); Tiedemann; Martinez; Robberse and Zulueta. Since the prospects are pitching-heavy, I probably also want Teo, with the goal of trading him for some other prospects shortly, and think about maybe settling for Espinal.

However, I have limited interest in players like Gurriel, who have limited team control and not great trade value. I also want higher-upside prospects, rather than prospects like Groshans who are struggling.
Hodgie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#417414) #
The walkless streak is over after 17 games.
electric carrot - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#417415) #
Soto is tantalizing obviously, but I'd like to remind everyone where (we've all been saying) the real needs are for this team. Starting pitching! I don't think this is the time to get distracted by the shiny new objects in the store window.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#417416) #
With the little help from the ump. I don't think Phelps through anything at all over the plate. Just a lot of borderline strikes.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#417417) #
I've seen games with outside balls being called strikes but this isn't one of them.
They Jays take too many fastballs on the outside corner.
They're all looking for something inside.

Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#417418) #
Not a good day for Mr. Umpire at first base. Two close calls overturned.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#417419) #
Not great on the check swing calls either, in my humble opinion.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#417420) #
On the second call, it may be that it is harder to see with the new typical positioning of the first baseman and the hip tag.  The umpire has a good look at the hand and the bag, but I'm not sure about the tag.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#417421) #
That Pratto is very slick indeed around first base. Don't know if he'll hit enough to make a career for himself, but he can definitely play the position.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#417422) #
I think he will.  The Royals' kids look very good to me. 
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#417423) #
I hope that was the hit and run because asking Gurriel to steal is not a good move here.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#417424) #
The Athletic has asked their various beat writers to make a pitch for Soto. Some of the responses:

Cubs - Nico Hoerner, Justin Steele, Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Caleb Kilian and Cristian Hernŗndez

White Sox - Eloy Jimťnez, Andrew Vaughn, Colson Montgomery, Oscar ColŠs Norge Vera

Angels - Shohei Ohtani, Jo Adell, Anthony Rendon, significant cash

Dodgers - Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages, James Outman (for Soto and Strasburg)

Mets - Francisco Ńlvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Alex Ramirez, Matt Allan (for Soto and a contract)

Yankees - Gleyber Torres, Oswald Peraza, Jasson Dominguez (for Soto and Corbin)

Padres - CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood

Mariners - Noelvi Marte, Emerson Hancock, Jarred Kelenic, Jonatan Clase.

Blue Jays - Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cavan Biggio, Gabriel Moreno, Ricky Tiedemann, Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez, Nate Pearson.
Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#417425) #
Pasquantino had been knock-knock-knocking on the door.
Glevin - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#417426) #
Tapia WRC+ by month (entering today)
Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#417427) #
Tapia for Soto. Straight up.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#417428) #
The BABIP gods were on their side today. Almost as good as having the umpires.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#417429) #
Yankees - Gleyber Torres, Oswald Peraza, Jasson Dominguez (for Soto and Corbin)

Dominguez is very overrated. Torres will be a free agent at the same thing as Soto and he's a 2B.
Peraza has an OPS of .739 in AAA.  And they would get Corbin too?

No wonder I don't pay for these articles.

Mets - Francisco Ńlvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Alex Ramirez, Matt Allan (for Soto and a contract)

That's their top 6 prospects. Only 2 are on the 40 roster. That sounds very doable. 

Chuck - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#417430) #
They did have the umpires, but Big Brother shut that down.
scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#417431) #
Kirk would have had to hit a homerun if they had not taken him out.
He doesn't score on that. Maybe they try and he makes an out or they need an extra hit in the inning.

scottt - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#417432) #
Rays and the Orioles are having the same game. Tied at 3 in the 9th.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#417433) #
That's now 7 consecutive scoreless outings for Richards since returning from the IL. He's fanned 12 and allowed just 2 hits in his 7 IP.
Glevin - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#417434) #
"Dominguez is very overrated. Torres will be a free agent at the same thing as Soto and he's a 2B.
Peraza has an OPS of .739 in AAA. And they would get Corbin too?"

Corbin has very negative trade value. $59M over 2 years for someone whose ERA is near 6.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#417435) #
[Kirk] doesn't score on that.

Sure, but if they hadn't run for him already they definitely would have run for him then.

That pickoff was something else. Zimmer didn't even have an aggressive lead. It was just a great move and a great tag.
Magpie - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#417436) #
Corbin has very negative trade value. $59M over 2 years for someone whose ERA is near 6.

That's why he'd be part of the price. You take this awful contract off their hands. (Same with Strasburg.)
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#417437) #
Just for fun I checked FanGraphs and they have Soto as being worth a peak of $55.7 mil last year, $19.9 so far this year. Basically he is worth around $40-50 mil a year, but at that level you are taking a massive risk. Paying around 50 times what a minimum salary player gets, or 50 times what Moreno will make for the next few years. It is a big risk, but with potential for big rewards. They have Vlad at $50.3 for last year, and $13.5 this year.

Another way to look at it is do you do a Soto trade now or do you spend that money in the winter to get Judge? No prospect cost, just raw dollars and lots of them. It will be interesting to see how this goes. FYI: Judge going into his age 31 season and wants 9 years at $30 per. Yankees offered 7 at $30.5 mil per but he rejected it. I wouldn't do it, but I suspect the Mets might (oh please let them).
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#417438) #
Iíd rather flex the financial muscle ands take back Corbin and Strasburg, who combined have more negative value than Sotoís + value. The pitchers alone would cost $59M this year and next and then $70M 2 seasons from now.

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#417439) #
If we get Soto then Vlad and Bo becomes priorities 2/3 for extensions. Maybe 3/4 after Manoah and of course Soto.
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#417440) #
If you take Strasburg off their hands Washington might give up Soto for next to nothing - his contract is that bad. He is on the IL again and has pitched just 4 2/3 innings this year, 31 1/3 over the past 3 years (8 starts - 61 ERA+ yikes) and is owed $35 mil a year for the next 4 years (and this year) so that is about $157 million in dead money for Washington plus the cost of his non-stop rehab in a desperate attempt to get something out of him, plus his 40 man roster slot - unless of course, they insured his contract in which case it is the lost roster slot and whatever the insurance doesn't cover. Still I can't imagine anyone taking that on as part of the deal, even the Jays with their financial muscle that is wide open right now (until Vlad & Bo reach free agency in a few years).

It'll be interesting to see if other deals still happen and teams lose the prospect capital they need for that mega deal thus taking them out of the race for Soto. I suspect some teams who think they have a good shot at him will hold off but the Jays I doubt will - #1 is finding more pitching. I still think Castillo might be a decent option but I don't think he is ready for 5+ IP each time which is what the Jays need really - someone who can go 5+ allowing 3 or less each time. Luis Castillo (Reds) fits the bill almost perfectly (69% of the time has a quality start, 2 years of control) but would be very expensive. Shohei Ohtani would be sweet but the cost there would be insane (basically Soto's price), Frankie Montas (Oakland) has been great (59% QS) but is injured (expected back after the ASG) so there is risk there. But for cheap and inning eating Michael Lorenzen of the Angels might fit the bill - last season before free agency so the cost would be lower, 80 ERA+ after an 85 last year so not an ace (which is what others are hunting for I suspect), 9 times gone 5+ IP vs 4 times under 5 (once each month), 4 times gave up 5+ runs, but 5 times gave up 0 or 1 run (over 6+ each time). Might be exactly what the Jays are looking for - cheap innings from the 5 hole in a guy you can dump post 2022 (thus no long term effect on the roster or budget). Yeah, chase after Montas and Castillo (far better and known to be available) but also keep an eye on Lorenzen to fill in that big hole every 5th day.

Plus of course, a need to get more pen help although Richards does seem to have regained the form that made us hopeful last year. If he can be dependable (massive if) the pen might be good enough but I'd still chase hard after more help.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#417441) #
I know Gurriel Jr. is streaky, but heís been hot for a while now. wRC+ of 155 in June, 174 in July. Maybe heís figuring things out a bit more. Heís still only 28 and he missed a lot of development time earlier in his career.

I think that proposed Jays trade package is too extreme. A 3:1 deal of Moreno plus Tiedemann plus Gurriel Jr. is already a damn fine package for 2.5 years of Soto.
bpoz - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#417442) #
Happy that we won.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#417443) #
The Omaha Storm Chasers of Papillion, Nebraska, which is a suburb about 25 km southwest of the Creighton University Bluejays, who play in the Big East.
John Northey - Saturday, July 16 2022 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#417444) #
Greenfrog - good point about Gurriel - I knew he was hot but didn't know how hot. Past 28 days (BR) has him at 379/419/540, in OPS closely followed by Teoscar at 307/346/594. Espinal has been ice cold at 234/280/298 which is a lower OPS than Zimmer (644 vs 578) over that time. Low 700's for Bo and Vlad, and Springer is 758. Soto has been 353/532/691 for the past 28 days for what that is worth. Josh Bell who is also on the trading block and has been rumored to be coming here by a few (no idea where he'd play) is hitting 323/400/527 over the past 28 days.

If Gurriel or Hernandez can keep it up (I wouldn't bet on it) they each would become very valuable players. Which the Jays need right now.
92-93 - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#417445) #
That package isnít even that crazy for Soto.
scottt - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#417446) #

Peraza is the Yankees's #2 prospect and Dominguez is down to #5 and still in A ball.
Everybody would have to give their top 5 or 6 prospects while the Yankees can just give a couple of guys and pick up some dead money? That's too much like the Stanton trade which was a totally different thing.

greenfrog - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#417449) #

The Jays are supposed to give up the #3 prospect in baseball (Moreno) and the #35 prospect (Tiedemann) and Groshans and Orelvis and Pearson, *plus* two good pieces off their major-league roster (Biggio and Gurriel Jr.),

while the Yankees are supposed to give up the #79 prospect in baseball (Peraza) and Dominguez, plus one piece off their major-league roster (Torres) who is having a rebound year and will be a free agent after 2024?

That seems fair -- if you're a typically entitled Yankees fan.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#417450) #
Bradley Zimmer gets the start...against a left-handed pitcher. I guess Schneider is on Team Tapia, so that Tapia for Soto trade will never happen unless the Nationals sweeten the deal.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#417452) #
From June 1 on (33 games), Tapia has hit .320 with 11 doubles, 3 home runs, and 2 SB. Only 15 Ks over that stretch, although he hasn't walked much either (2 BB).
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#417453) #
Jays would never give up that package. The easiest play here would be to trade Bo or Vlad. Iíd trade whichever that doesnít take an extension right now. Then Iíd trade the other for Soto so long as Soto agrees to be extended. Preserve the farm, secure that Lefty bay and OF weíre gonna need.
Glevin - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#417455) #
I think Yankees are a good possibility for Soto but there's no way it gets done without Volpe. Nats are for sure getting back a top-20 prospect or two in the trade.
hypobole - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#417457) #
Are the Nats a cheap franchise? They haven't shown to be for quite some time and the Soto contract offer shows they still aren't.

Who is going to make big money there next year? Strasburg, Corbin and Soto. But if Soto is traded, just the first 2. Their contracts are sunk costs. They can easily afford to hold on to them during their rebuild.

Rizzo knows his team has little to no chance of contention for the foreseeable future. The team is bad and the farm is one of the weakest in baseball. So prospects and maybe a prospect/pre-arb combo will be his priority in any Soto trade, not dumping salary and setting back the rebuild even further.
Thomas - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#417459) #
Hypobole just summarized my thoughts exactly.

Washington can easily afford the dead salaries of Strasburg and Corbin considering how little the rest of their team will cost. The suggestion that they'd use their most valuable trade chip to gain salary relief as opposed to a haul of young MLB players and prospects makes no sense.

Moreno also has a little less value to Washington than other top prospects, since Washington has Ruiz, who was their main prospect return for Trea Turner. If Moreno's defence led to him becoming Washington's main catcher, Ruiz becomes a lot less valuable, since he doesn't have the bat to DH, so Washington is losing the value gained from Kirk.

Washington matches up better with a team like the Yankees, who could trade Volpe, than the Jays, unless the Jays included Kirk.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#417460) #
I agree with Tabler about Pratto.  Very nice swing, and being able to handle the high one is impressive.  I think he's going to have a long and productive career.
rpriske - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#417461) #
Any rumors of Vlad and Bo having beef?
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#417462) #
Hypnobole and Thomas, I agree that thatís not the best possible return, however donít forget the Nationals are for sale. Very often in those scenarios we see teams try to dump outyear money. Certainly the Lerners can afford to continue paying Strasburg and Corbin, but will the incoming owner want to do that? Maybe not. But to me Iíd much rather tie up payroll than trade the best pieces from our system before we even start to address our areas of highest need
scottt - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#417465) #
Is an extension even possible? This is Boras trying to set a new record.
Maybe Boras is accounting for the inflation, but those figures are not Canadian dollar friendly.

Sale broke a finger on a comebacker and Boston is not having a good week.
The next hop on the schedule is Boston on Friday, then they're back to host the Cards.

Maybe Schneid is going to keep Kirk at DH and rest others only when Kirk is catching.
Springer got 5 days to rest his elbow.

hypobole - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#417466) #
I will bet a cuttlefish neither Corbin nor Strasburg will be included in the Soto trade. Even if the team is sold, minimizing the return will not sit well at all with the fanbase. There is an up and coming Orioles team 50 miles down the road.
hypobole - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#417468) #
With the draft today, thought this was interesting.

Late May, FG had Tapia as one of the 2 worst players in baseball. Thought I'd check back this morning after a few people posted his recent stats. 250+ PA's, he's now 20th worst.

The worst? #1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson, 68 wRC+, -1.1 WAR. He's 6 months older than Vlad was last year.

Tigers optioned him back to Toledo this afternoon.
John Northey - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#417469) #
hypobole - agreed the Nats haven't been cheap in the past - however Washington's owners are trying to sell the team, thus some value in getting rid of ugly contracts, which could be a factor depending on who they are negotiating with and what their goals are. Some owners are crazy cheap and just want the locked in profits from running a team. Others want to spend and feed their ego. Some are corporate types who do a cost/benefit analysis of every deal. As a fan I prefer the corporate types, even thought the ego driven owners are a blast (see the Angels - lots of 'wow' but often nothing else, or the Yankees of the 80's who always were entertaining but had no farm).

So what to expect? I think they will try to dump Corbin's contract but know they can't dump Strasburg's. The main reason for Cobin's is that it is almost impossible to make a deal without eating that. Checking who has top prospects... FanGraphs has 14 guys in MLB as 60's but no team has 2 of them, 99 50's or better (including 60's) led by Cleveland/Tampa/Texas with 6 each (all have a 60 plus 5 50/55's). So on the prospect level I'd assume Washington wants top notch prospects and those 3 have them. Now, we all know Cleveland and Tampa won't pay $400+ million to anyone so they are out. Texas though has shown a willingness to spend this past winter (and were the ones to give A-Rod his first $250 million deal decades ago). The others with a 60 are NYY, MIA, ARI, BAL, PIT, STL, NYM, SDP, DET, SEA, TOR. The Cubs have 5 in the 50's, while the Dodgers and Red Sox have 4 each. Of those the ones who are known to be willing and able to spend are NYY, Mets, Padres, Detroit, Toronto, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and sometimes Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore. Those 3 have spent big in the past but might not today depending on situation. I'd eliminate Baltimore right away as they are in the same market as Washington and that would hurt too much I'd figure. The Mets would also be hard as they are in the same division. The perfect deal would probably be to the AL and on the west coast (so as far away as possible) thus making the favorite Texas, followed by Dodgers-Padres then the AL clubs Toronto-Yankees-Detroit-Red Sox, then the NL Central Cubs. St Louis could do it, but I don't see them spending that prospect capital or cash capital on anyone (there is a reason they are always in contention despite being in a smaller market). My gut feel is someone like Texas or Detroit is most likely to make it happen as both have prospects and recent history of blowing big wads of cash, although Soto wants to be on a team that wins a lot thus making the Dodgers and Yankees his favorites. Not that he has a veto here. But if a team hears that Soto has zero interest in an extension then a team might not want to deal for him unless they are in their contention window.

Bottom line for Washington is they want the best return possible and to make fans/potential new owners happy as well. That might mean they want near ready prospects, not A ball ones, and a ML ready guy or two. Moreno fits that nicely, a guy like Gurriel or Hernandez could fit too (as a 'see we didn't give up 100%') and might sign long term unlike Soto. Maybe Biggio or Espinal could be mixed in too for more present day 'keep the fans happy' value without hurting the Jays too much today (see we got an All-Star back in Espinal plus prospects - please don't kill us). Huh, 2 regulars who the Jays could mix into a deal for Soto due to Soto replacing one and Biggio taking over second base. Few teams in contention have that flexibility plus a top 10 prospect in Moreno. Wonder if that would help or not? Guess we'll find out as odds are if Washington is going to do this it'll be quick - right after the All-Star game I'd figure we'd get the serious rumors going as they wouldn't want this to hang around too long but final details could take days to resolve (especially if whoever is doing it wants an extension signed as part of the deal - doubt the Jays would insist on that as they seem confident they can sign guys if they want to).
greenfrog - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#417471) #
I think there is a very good chance Soto will get traded before Aug. 2. Teams will offer more to have Soto for three postseasons runs rather than two. As I said upthread, the Jays should try hard to acquire him. It can be difficult to convince players to come to Toronto and this is a way to import a hugely talented one for *three* attempts at a WS. Itís a bit like trading for Kawhi with three (not one) seasons left on his contract. He is close to a perfect fit.
John Northey - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#417472) #
Draft day is always fun. I find day 2 more fun than day 1 - seeing if the Jays grab anyone who was highly rated who fell down due to whatever reason (signability, injuries, bad season, you name it). Tellez was one of those - people didn't think he'd sign but the Jays risked a 30th round pick and were rewarded.

On the roster now guys drafted by the Jays are (round year in brackets)...
  • Hitters: Danny Jansen (16th, 2013), Vinny Capra (20th 2018), Cavan Biggio (5th 2016), Bo Bichette (2nd 2016)
  • Pitchers: Tayler Saucedo (21st 2015 - IL), Tim Mayza (12th 2013), Alek Manoah (1st round, 11th overall, 2019), Ryan Borucki (15th 2012 and now gone)
Yep, that's it. The rest are IFA (4 hitters Vlad-Kirk-Gurriel-Moreno-Lopez-Castillo)/trades/free agents/purchased/rule 5 returned (Romano who was 10th 2014 originally)/or waivers.

Top prospects?
  • Top 10: Ricky Tiedemann (3rd 2021), Jordan Groshans (1st/18th overall 2018), CJ Van Eyk (2nd 2020), Irv Carter (5th 2021).
  • Rest of top 10 are IFA: Moreno 2016, Orelvis Martinez 2018, Otto Lopez 2016, Leo Jimenez 2017, Sem Robberse 2019, Manuel Beltre early 2021 (part of 2020's class)
So the draft has helped the team and will continue to, but the IFA are just as big and far harder to evaluate (BR really needs an IFA listing like they have a draft one). FYI: super prospect catcher Adley Rutschman (O's) has a 100 OPS+ over 178 PA so far - solid but not the 'wow' the hype suggested. Moreno was at 70 when sent down over 60 PA. Prospects are challenging. Few hit the ground running ala Manoah. The Torkelson experience is far more common - get a shot then sent down for a bit, then come back and do much better.
Glevin - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#417477) #
"I think there is a very good chance Soto will get traded before Aug. 2. Teams will offer more to have Soto for three postseasons runs rather than two."

Would you trade Bo in a package for Soto? I wouldn't want to if possible but I would. I think only Manoah and Vlad would be untouchable for me right now although Kirk would be a hard sell as well.
uglyone - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#417481) #
yeah I would trade Bo.
John Northey - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#417483) #
No such thing as untradable. Babe Ruth was traded, Wayne Gretzky was traded. The question is just what price? Bo would be very hard to trade right now as he is a key part of this team. His year has been poor by the standards set for him - 1.2 WAR, 104 OPS+ but he was a 5.7 WAR player last year and those don't grow on trees. He has 3 more years of control left too after 2022. Now, that said, with Espinal and Biggio here (plus prospects Groshans & O Martinez) the Jays could trade him potentially if the return was great enough (Soto is enough). Trade Simulator says Bo & Moreno & Tiedman is enough with room to spare (202.9 vs 193.7). But dang would that be tough to do. An immediate deal involving one of Teoscar or Gurriel would need to happen too in order to create space and ideally help the pen or rotation. Wonder if a deal with the Dodgers might be possible - they could use more OF offense and have pitching up the wazoo (team ERA+ of 141) as always.

Just more food for thought. I'd only do it if I felt Soto would fit in immediately and that Bo was not likely to get back to the 5 WAR form of the past. Moreno & Tiedman would be darn hard to send away though and could bite the team hard in a few years.
Glevin - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#417484) #
"Bo would be very hard to trade right now as he is a key part of this team. His year has been poor by the standards set for him - 1.2 WAR, 104 OPS+ but he was a 5.7 WAR player last year and those don't grow on trees."

He's a very good player, but he's sort of a .325 OBP, 25-30 HR with average D at SS player which is not the sort of person you refuse to trade. One thing to consider is how much value he got from going 25/1 in SB last year. He was 7th most valuable baserunner in baseball last year. Every other year, he's had negative value there. Again, not saying that Bo isn't a very good player or that I'd want to trade him just that he wouldn't be a blocker.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#417488) #
I'd love Soto, but I just don't know what the team ends up looking like after a deal. At least with other potential deals, you're not robbing from Peter to pay Paul.
DavidtheDeuce - Sunday, July 17 2022 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#417522) #
It has been a very exciting first half of the season so far. Hope the players and staff have a good rest and they all avoid the resort Casey Janssen went to during the All Star break in 2014.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 18 2022 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#417553) #
I view Soto as special. Heís be the best hitter on the Jays imho. It would be like robbing Peter to pay Jesus.

Iíd keep Tiedeman and Vlad but trade anybody else. Maybe Iíd keep Moreno too.

Moreno, Vlad, Tiedeman, Soto, Manoah, BerriosÖ you will always have an amazing core there.
greenfrog - Monday, July 18 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#417595) #
Rogers is never going to pay Soto what it would take to forego free agency. And they aren't going to be the high bidder for Soto in free agency.

But -- the Jays do have a unique opportunity to acquire him in a trade and have him around for what may end up being 2.5 of his best seasons (second half 2022 through the 2024 postseason). That is an opportunity worth pursuing. I would seriously consider trading Moreno and Tiedemann plus a couple of lesser prospects/players for him. And I highly value Moreno and Tiedemann.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 19 2022 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#417598) #
If that'd be the price, I'd be in. I just think it's going to put a significant dent in the major league roster which would offset the improvement.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 20 2022 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#417646) #
Sergio Romo has cleared waivers and is headed to Buffalo.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 20 2022 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#417665) #
So used to hearing cliches from players and euphemisms from FO's that this bit from ESPN is truly interesting to say the least:

...with Whit Merrifield suggesting he might get vaccinated in the future if he happens "to get on a team that has a chance to go play in Canada in the postseason." Don't worry, Whit, nobody wants your .635 OPS right now anyway. GM Dayton Moore's response to Merrifield's comments: "I was disappointed. Pretty disgusted, truthfully."
92-93 - Wednesday, July 20 2022 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#417669) #
What exactly is Moore disguted by? The fact that he has wasted Merrifield's entire pre-FA career?
Gerry - Wednesday, July 20 2022 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#417679) #
Correction to the Sergio Romo note above, he has elected free agency.
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