Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
I warned you about these guys. Believe me now?

Every once in a while, I'm not wrong.


On the one hand, the Blue Jays are certainly scuffling, having lost 7 of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they're still ahead of the pack in the Wild Card hunt. They've actually gained ground on the AL East leader. You may look at this as a Missed Opportunity. You may look at this as a very pleasant lack of Bad Consequences for their indifferent play of late. Certainly, every team that doesn't play their home games at 1000 Vin Scully Avenue.generally comes up with stretches of play like this over the course of the long, long season. So you may look at it however you like. It probably says more about you than the team, anyway.

But that's not what's on my mind. The Blue Jays, as you might have noticed, had a fairly quiet deadline. They did bring in four players, three of them pitchers, and one could perhaps even make the point that improving the bullpen is more likely to help a team in post-season play than upgrading the fifth starter. But obviously none of the new Blue Jays even remotely resembled a game-changer. So I think we may safely assume that the price being asked, of the Blue Jays at least, for a Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas exceeded what Ross Atkins thought it prudent to pay.

But I'm also beginning to suspect that Atkins came to the same conclusion this summer that Alex Anthopoulos reached at the deadline in 2014.

This is not our year.

Even more, this is not the team. This team simply isn't as good as I, and many of you,  thought it was going to be. Well, we were wrong, who cares. But this team is definitely not as good as Ross Atkins thought it was going to be. That's a bigger deal, and he'll have some explaining to do. This team isn't 61-52 because of bad luck in the close games. They're not 61-52 because they don't hit in the clutch, or because they've been crippled by injuries, or because Vlad is only the eighth best hitter in the league this year instead of the best. They're 61-52 because that's who they are. A good team, on pace to win about 87 games. In a landscape where Astros and Dodgers roam free, that's not likely to be good enough. Even though anything can happen in the post-season, and usually does.

It also means that this group might not be the group you make those kind of all-in, now-or-never moves for. It's going to be back to the drawing board, and see what can be done this winter. Obviously, you don't say that to the press. And you don't say it to the players. You do tell your boss, whether it's Paul Beeston or Mark Shapiro, what you're doing and why.
 
Every once in a while I'm not wrong, but I certainly could be wrong right now. Wouldn't that be nice? The glass isn't half-empty - it's half-full. Because after all, things do still have a chance to provide a happier ending for you and me and Ross Atkins this year than they did for Anthopoulos in 2014. That was a veteran team that understood immediately what the GM's lack of activity at the deadline really meant. They understood what it said about his opinion of them. They promptly lost 10 of their next 13 games, and went 9-17 that month. This year's team isn't as good as anyone expected it to be, but it still holds a ticket to the post-season dance. The team in front of them in the division has still lost 9 of its last 11 games and has now gone 16-22 since the beginning of July. This Jays team is still very much the same group that got really, really hot last September. We don't know yet how it's going to end. It's baseball. No one knows anything, and anything can still happen.

I suppose that's why we'll be watching.

Matchups

Mon 15 Aug - Bradish (1-4, 6.42) vs Kikuchi (4-6, 5.13)
Tue 16 Aug - Kremer (4-4, 3.69) vs Manoah (12-5, 2.56)
Wed 17 Aug - Voth (3-1, 3.21) vs Stripling (5-3, 3.16)

Baltimore at Toronto, August 15-17 | 303 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#419843) #
Yesterday you cited the team's ordinal rankings in runs for and against, 2nd and 8th, and that macro-analysis pretty much tells you where the problems lie. With 46M is going to negative value SP Berrios/Kikuchi/Ryu, the rotation now finds itself heavily reliant on two Dodger castoffs. To wit...

1000 Vin Scully Avenue

1st in offense, 1st in defense. With their 1/2 starters hurt, the Dodgers' 3/4/5 starters are 39-9 with a 2.5 ERA. Even Heaney has decided to pitch like Kershaw, the man he is replacing. Lots of talent and lots of pixie dust in La-La land.

bpoz - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#419844) #
Reading and digesting the Cleveland thread it is obvious that many Bauxites are disappointed/upset which is not unexpected.

John N broke down the Aug 14 standings for 2014 and 2022. I loved the "chances to win" and the "oh god no" breakdown provided by John N. Magpie also put in input. Thanks to both.

2014 was a veteran team and 2022 is a young team. I don't really know what moves AA made at the 2014 deadline. The pitching looked pretty good to me in 2014. If you have a chance the GM has to do something IMO. We were in a position to get a WC spot so some minor moves were needed and expected.

Atkins added Merrifield which strengthens the position players. The pitching has been strengthened as well in M White, Bass and Pop but the loss of Max Castillo is a factor.

Magpie's conclusion/opinion that Atkins does not believe in this team is bold IMO. I like this conclusion but don't really believe it because he traded for Berrios and gave him a big contract and Kikuchi was not brought in to be a savior. Neither was Cy Young Ray supposed to be a savior in 2021. Semien/Chapman seem equal to me because I do not think Semien's super 2021 was expected. Chapman has done quite well. Springer on the other hand has been a disappointment due to him being an oft injured player.

Magpie's "back to the drawing board" this winter is very, very interesting.

I am not surprised that the Seattle and SD GMs made the big trade deadline splash. That is how they operate IMO.

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#419846) #
2015 things got better when Donaldson was added to complement Bautista. So we had 2 psychos.

* * *

Wow, a lot of folks are down. Time to get fired up, people! We got a pennant race!

Let's start with an offensive outburst by the field manager.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#419847) #
That's a bit kind to Atkins imo. He made a fairly big deadline move last year with a lesser team - this team clearly has a very good talent level AND the bar for making the playoffs is MUCH lower this year to boot, both due to lesser wild card competition and more wild card spots.

Also, he had more avenues for improvement available in the offseason and didn't have to play wait and see for the deadline.

And of course, Atkins might want to start worrying more about whether anyone believes in HIM, rather than whether he believes in the team.

Anyways, this team is still good enough to get hot and do something fun so let's hope they can get in a groove soon.

I'd like it if we started thinking of rest days and pulling starters early more of a luxury at this point than a regular practice, though.
krose - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#419848) #
Thanks Magpie. Excellent consideration of possibilities. As you say when it comes to baseball, ďNobody knows nothingĒ. But the fat is in the fire and many are looking at the possibility that this team and itís minor league pipeline arenít good enough to get over the top. ButÖmaybe the starting pitching will come around and the offence will get really hot and the defence will buck up and the pen wonít suck. Letís watch and enjoy!
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#419849) #
he had more avenues for improvement available in the offseason

I've mentioned this over and over, but one more time - the "off-season" only went from November 3 through December 1. They did get a few things done, Gausman in particular.

I don't know. My reflex move is always to try to understand the thinking. So maybe one of the differences between 2021, when he added Berrios, and this year is that a year ago he thought he was still building the team. What may have given him pause was the way three of his building blocks - Berrios himself, Ryu, and Kikuchi - delivered far less than he was expecting. Proceeding in the same way, doing more of the same things that hadn't worked out as he'd hoped or expected - he may not have wanted to keep going down that particular path.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#419850) #
I'd like it if we started thinking of rest days and pulling starters early more of a luxury at this point than a regular practice, though.

Yeah. One assumes that the whole point is so that players are comparatively fresh (no one actually is anything close to fresh) for the stretch run. Well, here it is.

These are the dog days of August, they say, and Alejandro Kirk (who has never played this many games as a pro) is looking completely gassed. He's still getting his hits, but the extra base pop has fallen drastically and he looks too tired to catch. He can't finish a throw.
Kasi - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#419851) #
Hitting from the catching position has certainly fallen off a cliff. Kirk is down and Jansen is way down. Chapman has been great. Vlad, Teoscar and Gurriel have been good but not enough to carry the team on their own. Pitching hasnít been great but we just came off a series where we scored four runs in 3 games. Rather lucky we werenít swept.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#419852) #
"I've mentioned this over and over, but one more time - the "off-season" only went from November 3 through December 1. "

I know you've mentioned it, but I still don't get the argument.

it's not like they're spending all day every day working on one deal until done, and then start working on the next one.\

and lots of guys were signed in March.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#419853) #
SSure, but all of these discussions take time. They all stretch out. You talk to the agent. He goes away and talks to other teams. For days. There are a) lots of other teams, and b) lots of other clients to take care of. You talk to the other GM. He makes a counter-proposal. He goes away to think about it, and consider the other options he's discussing with half a dozen other teams. You're doing likewise. It all takes time, some of which is spent waiting for someone to return your call.
ae_scott - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#419854) #
What may have given him pause was the way three of his building blocks - Berrios himself, Ryu, and Kikuchi - delivered far less than he was expecting.

I always sort of assumed that Kikuchi was a project, but maybe the front office bought into the whole "Pete Walker, pitcher whisperer" thing a bit too much? Berrios, on the other hand, was supposed to be one of the anchors of the rotation. It's funny - the team is pretty much right where the projections said they would be (Fangraphs had them at 88 wins). I wonder if the ridiculous pace the Yankees played at for half the season has kind of skewed our perspective.

Jevant - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#419855) #
As far as I'm concerned, this year comes down to our best players not being as good as they were last year. Basically none of them have been better (or even as good as they were last year - Springer might be the exception just because he's been healthier, which is saying something).

I still think this team has a run in them, and in a sense it's nice we haven't really seen it yet. But I do think it's going to come down to Bo, Vlad and Teo getting back to the level they were at.

I'm not nearly as worried about the pitching. Between Gausman/Manoah/Stripling that's good enough to make the playoffs, and Berrios has still been giving his team good chance to win most night (and is clearly just having that one awful year that almost every pitcher seems to have at some point in his career).
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#419856) #
this year comes down to our best players not being as good as they were last year.

I think we make too much of that. Individual numbers are down, because that's the AL in 2022. Game done changed, yet again. Offense is down, by a lot. And so everybody's numbers are down. (Except Aaron Judge who activated god-mode and whispered to himself "I am become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds.") This remains one of the highest scoring teams in the league. The pitching, on the other hand...
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#419857) #
Besides offense being down all across the league this year, the team is also playing their entire home schedule at the Rogers Centre. Which is a nice place to hit, but not nearly as hitter-friendly as TD Park and Sahlen Field, where they spent a little more than half of the previous season. The team was much more successful at the Rogers Centre, but they scored a truckload more runs in Dunedin and Buffalo.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#419858) #
Yeah i don't think we're off the projections all that much. looking at my handy spreadsheet....

Fangraphs combined preseason zips/steamer depth chart projections Vs 2022 numbers....


* Player: Proj wRC+ / war/650 ---> 2022 wRC+ / war/650

* Guerrero 161 / 5.8 ---> 138 / 3.9
* Springer 128 / 4.2 ---> 122 / 4.0
* Bichette 124 / 4.8 ---> 103 / 3.1
* Teoscar 116 / 2.1 ----> 130 / 4.3
* Kirk 115 / 3.1 -------> 136 / 5.0
* Chapman 112 / 4.2 ----> 121 / 4.5
* Gurriel 109 / 2.0 ----> 120 / 1.9
* Jansen 103 / 3.9 -----> 99 / 2.6
* Biggio 100 / 2.1 -----> 101 / 3.1

* Espinal 83 / 1.5 -----> 94 / 2.9
* Tapia 84 / 0.8 -------> 91 / -0.2
* Zimmer 82 / 1.1 ------> 27 / -2.2
* Collins 85 / 0.0 -----> 89 / 0.0


* Player: Proj ERA / awar/32 ---> 2022 ERA / awar/32

* Gausman 3.77 / 3.8 ----> 3.16 / 5.6
* Berrios 3.90 / 3.7 ----> 5.61 / -0.1
* Manoah 3.84 / 3.3 -----> 2.56 / 5.0
* Ryu 3.88 / 3.3 --------> 5.67 / 0.3
* Kikuchi 4.41 / 2.2 ----> 5.13 / -0.8
* Stripling 4.52 / 1.2 --> 3.01 / 4.0

* Player: Proj ERA / awar/65 ---> 2022 ERA / awar/65

* Romano 3.37 / 1.4 ----> 2.51 / 1.4
* Mayza 3.61 / 0.9 -----> 2.88 / 0.7
* Cimber 4.13 / 0.5 ----> 3.17 / 0.9
* Richards 3.98 / 0.5 --> 5.04 / -0.5
* Phelps 4.04 / 0.2 ----> 2.58 / 1.1
* Garcia 4.28 / 0.2 ----> 2.93 / 1.1
* Thornton 4.59 / 0.0 --> 4.50 / -0.2
* Merryweather 4.16 / 0.2 -> 6.38 / -0.2
* Pearson 4.35 / 0.5 ---> Castillo 3.05 / 0.2
* Saucedo 4.53 / 0.0 ---> Gage 1.38 / 0.5



Overall there's a pretty good balance between over and underachievers imo.
Ducey - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#419859) #
* Zimmer 82 / 1.1 ------> 27 / -2.2

Immediately after this post management identified the problem and Zimmer was DFA.

Problem solved.

John Northey - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#419860) #
Remember when evaluating that there are always things going on we don't know at the time. For example, the Jays almost signed Verlander "I would say that the leader was probably Toronto. They were great." he also said the Jays deal was the same as Houston's - $25 mil plus a player option for $25 mil for next year, but he was used to Houston so went there. The Jays clearly are in on all the biggest free agents and involved in trades. I get the feeling many fans here are getting to Yankee stage where you expect the team to get EVERY good player and if they fail to then they aren't trying hard enough.

The rotation is solid. Yes, Berrios has his Oh God No starts, but has twice as many 'YAY' starts where the team has a great shot at winning. The bad are just so bad that his ERA goes sky high. Gausman is also solid, not perfect but very good. Manoah is fantastic. White looks like he'll be a LOT like Stripling but is still pre-arb so will be here a LONG time. Stripling is a solid #5/6 guy, who has pitched more like a #3/4 but low on innings (he seems to break easily). Kikuchi has had more good days than I thought, but boy when he is off he gets pulled fast and looks bad. If he can be moved to #6 in the depth chart as Stripling returns then I think the rotation will be fine.

For the offense, the Jays are 3rd in Batting Wins (a BR stat) in the majors behind only the Dodgers and Yankees, and well ahead of the Cardinals and 1.7 ahead of 3rd in the AL Twins. Tampa is almost dead even at 0.5 (0 is ML average). The O's and Red Sox are both sub 0.

Lets enjoy this team. It isn't the 92/93 teams, or the '85 one that won 99 games. This is the 2022 team with a ton of young talent fans will be talking about 30 years from now "I remember when we had Vlad & Bo & Teoscar & Manoah & ... - the kids today just aren't as good as they were". Much like us old guys today talk about Bell/Moseby/Barfield & Fernandez & Stieb & Henke from the great 80's teams.
scottt - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#419861) #
I don't really know what moves AA made at the 2014 deadline.

He traded Hendriks and Erik Kratz for Danny Valencia.

That was before Hendriks was any good and he showed remorse in the fall and sent Santiago Nessy to get him back.
That was a strange story in itself.

Other than that, just waiver claims.
92-93 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#419862) #
Not a fan of dropping Zimmer. It means the club still doesn't recognize that Tapia stinks and he will continue to get too much playing time. They're better off with bench guys Schneider isn't inclined to start.

Just trying to kickstart Raimel, who is back to being terrible lately.
92-93 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#419863) #
It's very surprising that a rested Hatch isn't taking Thornton's spot for a game started by Kikuchi. Because of the silly usage of 5 relievers in an 8-0 game on Friday the Jays only have 2 relievers, Romano and Garcia, who are fresh. The other 6 arms will be pitching in their 3rd game in 4 days if used.
scottt - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#419864) #
The Yankees are good at trading for scraps.
Some would say it's because they have such a great system, but where are all these players the Yankees trade?
Yankee Stadium is a funny place. Some guys play better there, others struggle.
It's a park built for lefties but they haven't really taken advantage of it.
Take Camden Yards, when you reshape your home park like that, you probably have some left bats in your system.

The guys the Yankees sent to the All-Star games included Clay Holmes and  Jose Trevino.

As for getting every free agents, the Yankees have passed on a lot of players recently.

Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#419865) #
He traded Hendriks and Erik Kratz for Danny Valencia.

Stranger still, at the deadline in 2015, they put Valencia on waivers - he'd hit .296/.331/.506 as a Blue Jay - and Oakland snapped him right up. He did play lousy in the outfield while he was here. Oh right - he wasn't an outfielder.
scottt - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#419866) #
Cimber is good to go.
Pop threw 6 pitches on Saturday.

That's half the pen.

Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#419867) #
Just trying to kickstart Raimel, who is back to being terrible lately.

He Feeds On Our Scorn. People have been getting lazy lately.

Over his first 40 games, Tapia hit .227/.259/.273, which brought on a well-earned Chorus of Scorn that was deafening in its volume.

And it worked. Over his next 40 games, Tapia hit .349/.364/.564 and needless to say - that's the guy nthis team needs. He's starting in CF tonight.

Gentlemen - start your engines.
bpoz - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#419868) #
In this window I expect 88-92 wins with the odd +/-2. So playoff contention run every year. 2021 was 91 wins and no playoffs.
I dread the year we win 105 games and not the WS and also dread the year we win 87 games and the WS. Buckle up Bauxites!! This is normal.
vw_fan17 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#419869) #
Apparently, Jays are close to a minor league deal with Yoshi Tsutsugo.
Chuck - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#419870) #
Jays are close to a minor league deal with Yoshi Tsutsugo

Negotiations for a deal of this magnitude cannot be rushed into.

Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#419871) #
I normally love listening to Dan Shulman, but having him repeat the club's nonsense about Kikuchi is too much for me.  Mute.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#419872) #
Kikuchi made some good pitches to start the game, but he was hurt by some bad luck to fall behind 1-0. Nice job by him to maintain his composure, pitch carefully to Mountcastle, and get out of the inning without further damage.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#419873) #
Springer looks a lot better.  The IL stint was a good idea.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#419874) #
Wondering whether this is too early for Springer to be back. I guess weíll find out. I would have been fine with shelving him for a while longer.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#419875) #
I donít think you can tell from one PA whether Springer is really better. Letís see how he looks in a few days or a week or two of grinding baseball.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#419876) #
It's symptomatic treatment not treatment of the root cause.  You can tell it worked- the difference between the way he looked before and after is night and day.  How long it will work for is another issue, but it doesn't really matter whether he's out for 10 or 20 days on that one. 
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#419877) #
Those weren't very good ABs by Tapia and Merrifield with runners in scoring position.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#419878) #
Mike, what are you basing that opinion on? How do you know that 10 days is the magic number? Has anyone even specified what the medical issue is?
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#419879) #
I don't understand how Mountcastle's stats are so average. He's impossible to get out.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#419880) #
Worst scouting report ever?
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#419881) #
Ten isn't the magic number.  He had a cortisone injection to reduce swelling.  It's pretty obvious that the swelling has come down and as a result he is in much, much less pain, and that was probably true a few days ago. 
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#419882) #
Greenfrog, he has bone chips in his elbow. Barker has said it a couple times on their radio program
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#419883) #
Kikuchi hasn't thrown badly so far.  It's just that if you put him against a lineup with 8 right-handed hitters, you're asking for trouble.  The pitch to Rutschman could easily have been called a ball.  Either don't start him or use him as the main event following a RHP. 
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#419884) #
Good to see, Bradish wasn't pitching that well last inning. A much better set of ABs this inning.
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#419885) #
Before the Mountcastle blast, Buck opined that Kikuchi was pitching with confidence.

I couldn't disagree with him more. It doesn't take a body language expert or a sports psychologist to see Kikuchi's
hesitancy and self doubt in his craft right now. He almost looks nervous out there. I don't think he has much idea where the ball is going.
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#419886) #
Mike - I generally agree that Kikutchi isn't going to be very successful over the long haul against a RHH heavy line-up. But some of the blame here has to fall on the manager/pitching coach. The evidence is now a mile high that Mountcastle has the Jays' number. Pitch around him for pity sake with runners on. Or try something completely different in your approach. Do something other than fish balls out of the left field bleachers and shrug your shoulders.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#419887) #
Bradish wasn't pitching that well last inning.

His slider was consistently just off the plate, but they didn't seem to see his fastball very well. (Teo wasn't seeing anything very well.) The Jays hit high velocity very well, but they were consistently just a little late here. Kept fouling it off to the right side. Springer and Gurriel both hit his changeup.
Dr. Zarco - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#419888) #
Crazy stat here. Iím at the Reds/Phillies game. Syndergaard has thrown 8 balls in 5 innings of work (51 pitches). Pretty amazing
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#419889) #
It's a bad cycle.  He pitched around Rutschman, pitched around Santander, and if he pitches around Mountcastle, he loses the strike zone.  And then the next guy gets him.  He needs a landing spot against a lefty. 
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#419890) #
Wow. In a stretch of 14 words, I used the phrase "very well" three times.

A man of many, many talents.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#419891) #
The Jays have a history of reinstating Springer too quickly (recall the quad sprain issue in the first few months of 2021). Weíll see if their judgment proves better this time around.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#419892) #
3-2 slider against a lefty with a runner on first?  No. 

Vavra has a good idea of the strike zone, and Mateo had gone already.  That was the last thing Kikuchi needed.
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#419893) #
When a guy has an OPS of a million against you and itís over a now sizeable enough number of ABs Iím just not doing the same old same old. Definition of insanity and all that.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#419894) #
We know that Mountcastle can hit a middle-middle 95 mph fastball.  But we knew that before. 

Anyways it was just a poor plan, all the way around.  Pete Walker may have had the Midas touch with Robbie Ray, but I'm afraid it's just not present this year with Kikuchi.  Self-evidently. 
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#419895) #
I am officially curious to see what Kikuchi might look like as a relief pitcher. He is legitimately tough on LH batters, and certainly even when he's throwing the ball well expecting more than an inning or two to pass without misfortune looks like... the definition of insanity?
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#419896) #
So Bo Bichette gets the day off on Sunday, doesnít hustle down the line to end the inning. Next inning he makes a critical error fielding the ball and a 2nd error taking Vlad off first base.

So naturally nobody points this out because Kikuchi is the problemÖright.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#419897) #
So naturally nobody points this out because Kikuchi is the problemÖright.

Pretty much. Definitely a bigger problem than a one-out error with no one on base.
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#419898) #
Kikuchi is the 2022 version of Joey Hamilton perhaps?

I really can't remember what they gave Hamilton...was it three years like Kikuchi? Hamilton's 1998 may have been even worse than Yusei's '22.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#419899) #
There is definitely merit to trying Kikuchi in a middle relief role in the pen.  If you weren't going to run him as the main event, the middle relief role would be a good conservative choice.

Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#419900) #
Hamilton's 1998 may have been even worse than Yusei's '22.

About the same, I think. Hamilton went 7-8, 6.52 but it was a very different time.

What especially hurt about Hamilton wasn't the three years so much as giving up Woody Williams - who would be a solid starting pitcher for the next eight years - to get him.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#419901) #
Did you see that, Jackie Bradley?
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#419902) #
Hopefully the Jays will make the postseason at least once during their much-vaunted window of contention.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#419903) #
Kikuchi pitched better than Gausman and Berrios and thatís with his SS putting a lead off man on base. If the pitcher is struggling the last thing they need is infield errors.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#419904) #
Oh look, down by 5, nobody on base, here comes a meatball pitch for Guerrero to hit out of the park.

I guess these pitchers like teasing our phenom because he canít seem to do that when it counts. Pat yourself on the back Vlad, you got another homer to move past Chapman for the team lead.
Waveburner - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#419905) #
Is there any justification for giving Kikuchi another start instead of Mitch White now that Stripling is coming back?

They can't keep giving games away.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#419906) #
Right now this team is having a hard time scoring runs and preventing runs, with everyone not named Manoah or Chapman.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#419907) #
Is there any justification for giving Kikuchi another start instead of Mitch White

Not to me. The Dodgers had White on their roster, they gave him ten starts. What higher recommendation could you need?
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#419908) #
You could start White who will give you 4-5 innings and then bring in Kikuchi.
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#419909) #
Or they could just not bring in Kikuchi
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#419910) #
Or they could just not bring in Kikuchi

I laughed. Out loud. But I'm much too old to actually type "LOL."

Seriously, if there are a couple of tough LH bats, and Mayza isn't back yet...
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#419912) #
Chris Woodward walks the plank in Texas. Don't go 6-24 in one-run games. Bad for you.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#419913) #
If you're going to send out Kikuchi to start (which I wouldn't have done), you've got to give him a shot in low leverage work or work in favourable situations in the pen. 

Pete Walker has not had an impressive year. 
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#419914) #
That was terrible effort by Tapia there. /scorn quota. 

I will be handing out speeding tickets at Bathurst and Davenport all week. 
Hodgie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#419915) #
"I guess these pitchers like teasing our phenom because he canít seem to do that when it counts. Pat yourself on the back Vlad, you got another homer to move past Chapman for the team lead."

Can't help but wonder what that phenom, that 23-year-old star that 29 other organizations would die to have on their roster, did to hurt you so badly.

Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#419916) #
That was terrible effort by Tapia there.

Better. But I'm still pretty disappointed at the overall effort. Am I going to have to provoke you folks? Because I can. And I will.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#419917) #
Heís great but heís not everything heís been cracked up to be so Iím calling BS. Maybe next year or 3 years from now he will hit his stride but right now heís overrated. One of the best, yea, but still overrated. He canít hit great pitching yet.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#419918) #
I mean, do you guys really want to pay 40+ million for this guy/year?
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#419919) #
Me the optimist thought Merrifield would replace and upgrade Tapia.

Chuck - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#419920) #
Me the suspicious thinks that Schneider has designs on turning the starting 2B job over to Merrifield.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#419921) #
Me the shocked now thinks you might be right.

Which is perfect given he's our worst 2B offensively and not very good defensively.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#419922) #
Me the optimist thought Merrifield would replace and upgrade Tapia.

I dunno. I think it's time for a provocation. A tough loss looms, but at least we didn't see Kirk taking at bats away from Tapia.

Since July 1
        G    PA   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Kirk    34  133  121  10  32  3  0  2  10  11  16  .265  .323  .339  .662
Tapia 27   88   85   8  27  4  1  2  17   1  15  .318  .326  .459  .784
Some may point out that Tapia probably isn't a good option behind the plate, but I scoff at such arguments.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#419923) #
Hah i wouldn't even put money on Kirk finishing with more PA than Tapia this year. Don't even joke.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#419924) #
He canít hit good pitching.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#419925) #
I'll tell you who he can't hit. Ryan Yarbrough.

As for some better pitchers...
Pitcher          R/L  AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF   AVG   OBP   SLG

Sandy Alcantara    R   7   5   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  .714  .714 1.286
Gerrit Cole        R  18   5   1   0   0   2   0   2   1   0   0  .278  .381  .333
Tyler Glasnow      R   7   3   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0   0  .429  .556  .857
Charlie Morton     R  13   4   1   0   0   0   0   4   1   0   0  .308  .357  .385
Max Scherzer       R   6   2   0   0   2   0   0   1   0   0   0  .333  .333 1.333
This doesn't include this season, so when Retrosheet updates we can add the homers hit this season off Jose Uquidy, Shohei Ohtani, Zack Wheeler, Luis Severino, and Gerrit Cole.

I guess he can hit some of them. Kind of like everybody else.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#419926) #
Gimme a list of those pitchers or that level of pitcher in 7th inning or later and include this season.
Mike D - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#419927) #
I'm really not sure if a GM's performance has ever been proven so quickly and so comprehensively wrongheaded as Ross Atkins' 2022 trade deadline.
Mike D - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#419928) #
Like, the Jays are failing in precisely the ways that everyone in baseball assumed they would avoid through trades.
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#419929) #
Yeah but the roster is super flexible post deadline. Just look at how many different lineups you can put together.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#419930) #
I'll be damned if I'm typing out 72 home runs. The list for Guerrero is here.

It is, in fact, interesting to contrast with the same list for Aaron Judge, who has hit literally twice as many homers. The best pitchers on Judge's list are Ohtani, Manoah, and Romano. But Judge has been much, much better than Guerrero at punishing the average and below-average pitchers who wander the world. And this is completely normal. That's who gives up the most home runs.
uglyone - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#419931) #
the great flexibility surpassed only by the many years of control.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#419932) #
Schneider does not commit to giving Kikuchi another start. "Everything is on the table."
John Northey - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#419933) #
A reminder for all of us sick of Kikuchi (and yes I am among them). Robbie Ray 2020 - 4 starts for the Jays, under 5 innings in all but one. Allowed runs in all appearances here (even his relief game), batting line of 265/371/470 against him - we all know what happened in 2021. Kikuchi this year 244/357/492 - a bit more power, but better in Avg and OBP. Just interesting to look at as IIRC his similarity to a pre-Jay Ray was what appealed to the Jays and us.

Of course, Ray isn't what he was anymore - 96 ERA+ so far this year, but just 2 games under 5 IP, just 3 with 5+ runs allowed (including one of those short games) so a total of 4 really bad games. Gausman (who the Jays signed instead) has 5 sub 5 IP games, 4 5+ run games (all sub 5 IP). So a total of 5 really bad games. Difference is when Gausman is on he is really on (thus the 125 ERA+ and league leading 2.08 FIP) while Ray tends to give up a few runs no matter what.

IMO the best strategy right now is to put Kikuchi in AAA (ego be damned) and have a rotation of Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-Stripling-White. I'd wait until after Stripling's start, maybe see if you can dream up an injury for Kikuchi (sadly 'lack of results' doesn't count). The pen could be overcrowded though: Romano-Cimber-Phelps-Garcia-Bass-Pop are locked in. Richards we're stuck with it seems, 8th slot is a mix of Thornton, Gage, Pearson, Merryweather - the last 2 are almost ready according to reports, especially Merryweather. Of course, the Jays could go with a 6 man rotation to try to rest the big 3 but then you only have a 7 man pen until September when you can add one more. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#419934) #
I'd put him in the pen. He's legitimately tough on LH batters, and the team has a need. It looks like Mayza will be back this year, but until that happy day I think I'd rather see Kikuchi come on to face a tough LH batter than Richards (who would - gulp - be the next best option, unless you wanted to use Garcia whenever the situation comes up rather than save him for the eighth.)
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#419935) #
Pete Walker has not had an impressive year.

The job requirements can often change from one year to the next. This year it's called for an awful lot of problem solving - Berrios, Kikuchi, Richards - and the problems haven't been getting solved.
Nigel - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#419936) #
Iíd prefer Gage up and in the pen but you could do worse in the circumstances than giving Kikutchi a spin in the pen.

The Jays may have been guilty of drinking their own koolaid with Walker in respect of signing Kikutchi. Itís not actually clear that last year was anything but a fluke for Ray. But to the extent Ray needed to do something different, it was pretty clear - he had to throw more strikes. With Kikutchi, whatís the problem that needs fixing? Not being Kikutchi?
Magpie - Monday, August 15 2022 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#419937) #
It's also a complete unknown as to whether Kikuchi can even pitch out of the bullpen. Can he figure that out? Can he get loose in a hurry? He's literally never done it, in North America or Japan.

Okay, there were two relief appearances ten years ago, when he was 21 years old.
Michael - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#419938) #
It is always super hard to tell the difference between coaches/managers and players but it would take more than one season to sour on one that you thought was good (sample size and all that). That said, I wonder if the pre-season DUI impacted Walker's abilities/relationship with the team or some of the players or distracted from some of that at the start of the season (and is carrying through)?

As people said up thread the team is more or less doing what you'd expect with a few guys underperforming but about an equal amount overperforming (in an environment with less run scoring than last year both in the league and in the Jays home stadiums).

Despite all the recent struggles, if the season ended today the Jays would be in the playoffs (as the last wildcard), and they have a 1.5 game lead on the first non-qualifier (Baltimore). And pre-season many folks would be happy being 5 games up on Boston in mid-August.
scottt - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#419939) #
Kikuchi has 5 pitches like Ryu, but they are trying to get him to throw only 2 like Robbie Ray.
This leads to these sequences in which Kikuchi throws 5 fastballs to one guy and 4 sliders to the next.
It seems too predictable to me. Just guess he's throwing the same pitch as the last one and in the same location.

He got a lot of 0-2 counts early but couldn't do anything once there.
Fastballs 9 inches outside is a waste pitch. He has to throw it for a strike on a corner. Or high/low.
Move the target around, make them lose the plate.
The split change might get a swing in those counts, not on a 1-0 count where the hitter will be taking.
Even that cutter could be useful once or twice, if he can locate it.
Just throwing the same pitch over again and again makes the hitter see it very well.

I don't think he's follow the plan too closely.
It seems like there are no plan. Just throw what feels good we trust your stuff.
Here's a good low ball hitter and every pitch is low.
Seems like self inflicted injury.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#419940) #
Question for the day (and I don't know the answer).  Has there ever been a pennant-winning club without an effective left-handed hitting bat (or switch-hitter) in the everyday lineup (let's say 2 WAR)? 
Update: I found one- but it gets in by the smallest of margins with one regular who had 1.8 bWAR. Can someone do better- no left-handed or switch-hitting regular with more than 1 bWAR?

 
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#419941) #
Great question of the day Mike.

Did I imagine that this FO tried signing Corey Seager or was there actually a report somewhere?
Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#419942) #
This Jeff Passan story says the Jays were after Seager, but doesn't say much more than "they too were unwilling to match Texas' mega-offer."
scottt - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#419943) #
Come to Canada and move to 3B?
Would have taken a huge premium.
I'm sure he's already settled on the west coast.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#419944) #
The Orioles are one of the feel good stories of the MLB season -GM Mike Elias has done a superb job of rebuilding that organization and with a top tier farm system and a clean payroll (Davis comes off the books after this season), I expect the Orioles to be serious contenders in the coming years, likely to zip by the Jays. The Orioles success in building a pitching staff is similar to Houston's success and of course Elias came from the Astros - pity that Edward Rodgers didn't recruit him. It would be ironic if the Orioles made the playoffs despite being sellers at the deadline.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#419945) #
Thanks for looking that up guys.

Letís look at some potential positives, which for me is necessary as Iíve been extremely critical and disappointed in this team as a season ticket holder. Here goes:

Gabriel Moreno is good and can be our Adley Rutschman who by all accounts is a leader on the field and can call a good game.

Vlad the player formerly known as the Impaler will get better next year after he gets a nice new contract and some lefty bats to balance out the line up so he doesnít have to be perfect every game and walk or fight pitches off the edges. Kevin Barker made a good point yesterday that without good lefty bats the opposing pitcher can just repeat the same pitches and sequences to eighties all day and get into a good Rhythm.

The jays will trade for a lefty bat in the offseason. Word out there is teams wanted Gurriel or Teoscar or Bo for players like Skubal, Soto, elite pitching no etc. I think the Jays will definitely trade Kirk for a long term solution like Jazz Chisholm from the left side or they will trade Gurriel or Teoscar for a 1 year player lefty bat.

The Jays by all accounts have been chasing elite free agents for 3 seasons straight. DeGrom and Verlander may be in their list.

Not this off-season but the year after the Jays are renovating the rest of the stadium on the infield side. They will have lounge and bars built behind the dugout with view ins of the live players. There will also be amenities built into the player tunnels possibly. Foul territory will shrink and the entire section behind home plate may become more of a general admission ďcasualĒ section. At the end of the day itís going to be a better experience following the Braves and Twins recent renovations.

This rotation is still really good when ďrightĒ

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#419946) #
"(Davis comes off the books after this season)"

Interesting that. A much maligned mega-contract signed in 2016, right around when all our guys could have been signed.

And now expiring potentially before our Jays even make the playoffs again.

David Price's mega-deal is up this year too, no? That would be the last contract to our old guy to expire - all those contracts that we couldn't sign because they would prevent us from making the playoffs.

Except now we have other contracts to old guys that we probably wish would be expiring this year now when our cheap guys are about to get expensive, which might now prevent us from making the playoffs.

lexomatic - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#419947) #
<br>solution like Jazz Chisholm

I want no part of Chisolm and his back injury.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#419948) #
right around when all our guys could have been signed.

What guys?
ae_scott - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#419949) #
And now expiring potentially before our Jays even make the playoffs again.

Uh...didn't the Jays make the playoffs in 2020?

all those contracts that we couldn't sign because they would prevent us from making the playoffs.

I don't understand. Which "old guys" should have been signed to contracts in 2016 and how exactly would they have helped the Jays make the playoffs prior to 2020?

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#419950) #
ah come on guys.

All our old guys were up for contracts around then.

We didn't sign them because their contracts would stop us from making the playoffs down the line.

And now all those contracts are expired, and we still ain't seen the playoffs.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#419951) #
"Uh...didn't the Jays make the playoffs in 2020?"

nope.
ae_scott - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#419952) #
Uh...

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-clinch-2020-postseason-berth

Now granted they only lasted two games...
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#419953) #
No bites on the question. The 2000 Mets only had Robin Ventura who batted left and had 1.8 WAR. The Dodgers in the 50s sometimes had nobody but Duke Snider. Any other pennant-winners with an extreme right-handed tilt.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#419954) #
We didn't sign them because their contracts would stop us from making the playoffs down the line.

I would have assumed that the reason they didn't sign any of those old guys would because they were old guys. But actually most of the gang from 2015 stayed right here, getting older and older and worser and worser. I'm not sure who you're thinking of besides David Price, a contract that looks like a Bullet, Dodged.

Granted, it's long been my view that the great, lingering error of the Ross Atkins era has been how long he danced with the ghost of 2015 before getting on with building something new. By coincidence (preparing a forthcoming Off-Day Timewaster), I've been looking at the 1965 Yankees. That was the year of their Great Fall, of blessed memory. May we see such wonders again in our time. All my life as a baseball fan, I've been told that their Great Fall was inevitable, that the team had simply gotten too old, the crash had to come. But the 2015 Blue Jays were a much older team than the 1965 Yankees. Everyone on the 2015 team had already had their best season. But Atkins ran it back in 2016, ran it back again in 2017, and even tried to run it back to some degree in 2018. I can sort of understand why Atkins did it, but it was a mistake.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#419955) #
Regarding signing old guys in 2016/17/18.

1) The Jays are not a rich team IMO. NYY, Boston, LAD & NYM are rich teams.

2) The majority of our position players are home grown. We supplemented with Springer, Semien and Chapman. Springer was a bit rich and should have not been done.

We did keep Bautista for an extra year. Donaldson got injured and then became a FA. EE accepted a cheaper deal than the Jay's offer. There are suggestions that Shapiro wanted an earlier rebuild but was denied by ownership.

We were paying players (Martin/Tulo/Morales) to play for other teams which kept payroll high with no savings.

3) Only Manoah (lucky), Mayza and Romano are home grown pitchers. So we needed to get pitching from outside the organization. Ryu was an expensive deal that was good for 2020 and 2021 (169 IP) so maybe that was an ok deal only because 2020 and 2021 were successful seasons sort off. Gausman is a bit rich but is supposed to help us win about 90 games which should be a playoff contending situation. Berrios's deal could be 5 or 7 years as I understand it. This is to keep the 90 win potential with the high revenue.

We have not emptied the farm so far. But payroll is a bit too high IMO. 4 more years of Gausman/Springer/Berrios on the payroll.

I don't really like this plan.

Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#419956) #
No bites on the question.

I'm thinking!

If you just scan a list of post-season teams, you almost always think immediately of some quality LH bat in that lineup. When you can't, you're running into teams that didn't have any good LH hitting, but they did have some. Oakland 1988 couldn't really improve on Biggio and Tapia - but they had Hassey and Polonia and old Dave Parker and a bunch of light hitting switch-hitters. The 1960 Pirates didn't have much either, but see where we are - We've gone back half a century and reached the point where only have to consider NL teams because the Yankees always had LH power and lots of it...
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#419957) #
The only player who was worth signing from the 2016 team was Edwin Encarnicion, The Jays were interested in resigning him but either the Jays didn't offer him enough or Edwin thought he could get more elsewhere. The Jays then signed the lamentable Kendrys Morales instead. EE's contract was the only one of the big hitters that was up after 2016.

Jose Bautista played one more year in Toronto at age 37.His skills were diminishing as he struck out over 30% of at bats and then fell off a cliff the next year.

Russel Martin played two more years with the Jays and while he didn't hit much, he played good defense and offered good leadership. He finished his career at age 36 the next year in L.A. ( Dodgers)

Josh Donaldson had a good year with the Jays in 2017 at age 31. The next year was injury plagued and he only played 35 games and then was shipped to Cleveland in the famous We Should Have Traded Him A Year Sooner But Something ( Julian Merryweather) Is Better Than Nothing Move. Josh played only 16 games there before signing with Atlanta in the offseason, He had a decent season at age 33 there but only played 20 games due to injury in the covid-shortened 2020 year. He's had mediocre years last year in Minnesota and this year in New York. ( Under .700 OPS at age 36)

So EE was the only one whose contract was up after 2016 and was worth signing. Donaldson had one good year but has had a lot of injuries and is reportedly hard on younger teammates. Otherwise the 2016 team had a lot of older position players whose careers were near an end - Bautista, Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Smoak.

Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#419958) #
I agree - the failing was in how long they tried to tow the line between rebuilding and keeping the 2015 core. It was an impossible line to straddle but still one that I didn't think Atkins handled well. Having said that, I've come to believe that complete tear downs (that allow you to truly accept where you are on the success curve) aren't allowed by Rogers so some of the blame may well lie at the feet of ownership on that one.
scottt - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#419959) #
We're totally fine. We're going to rerun this team again next year and that's totally fine.
They kept Moreno to replace Jansen. They kept Tiedermann to slot in the rotation.
They have a couple of options for 3rd base.
They have the farm to rerun this team year over year over year.

They'll have to reconfigure the outfield eventually.
I'd still like to keep Hernandez and sign Guerrero long term.
I have cooled down a lot on Bichette.

It's going to be a competitive division. It's what most people wanted.
With 6 teams making the playoffs, you can't have that many teams rebuilding.
The Jays didn't quite meet expectation. The Angels have not been able to compete.
KC is still rebuilding. So is Texas. These are the teams that were competing with the Jays in 2015.
Cleveland has been on the verge on contention since 2016. They've shed a lot of good players and I'm not sure the 2022 edition is a real contender. They have salary limitation and the prospects they have came from trading top talent away.

Every contender had a long winning streak at some point except the Jays.
There is still time for one, but the clock is ticking.

Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#419960) #
The only player who was worth signing from the 2016 team was Edwin Encarnacion,

Maybe, but what would have been the point? So you win 78 games instead of 76?
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#419961) #
The point would have been to keep a successful team together, and keeping your stars at home, even though the risk of them failing was obvious.

Especially since they had no intentions to try and compete during the majority of those contracts.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#419963) #
I don't care what special rules were in place but finishing 7th in a 60gm season will never count as a playoffs team to me.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#419964) #
To me the Jays had a playoff team last year and I really would have liked to see what would have happened if they had gotten to the post season. They were like a race horse that turned it on coming around the final turn and just finished second by a nose.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#419965) #
Itís worth noting that the Oís subtracted at the deadline (Mancini, Lopez), while the Jays added (Pop, Bass, White, Merrifield). This (in addition to the vast payroll differential between the two teams) would make it especially embarrassing if the Oís surpassed the Jays for the final postseason spot this year.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#419966) #
Interestingly, last year the Jays were only 51-48 at the deadline (84 win pace), made a huge move at the deadline, and went 40-23 the rest of the way (103 win pace).

This year they were 57-45 at the deadline (91 win pace), flopped the deadline, and have gone 4-8 since (54 win pace).
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#419967) #
The point would have been to keep a successful team together

Successful? 2015 was great fun and that team was capable of winning it all. But the 2016 team was clearly a much weaker outfit and barely staggered into the post-season by the hair of their chinny-chin-chins. Old players just get older, and that team was already really old in 2015. Keeping the old band together so you can win 78 games will always seem pretty pointless to me.

But they kept the team together anyway, even though they were not successful, even though there was little to no chance of them ever being successful, even though they had long passed their Best-By date and begin to emit an unpleasant odour. I don't mind that this futile indulging in nostalgia was expensive. Not my money. But it was futile. A pointless waste of everyone's team. You know what really bothers me? I should have seen it more clearly while it was happening. Old players just get older. Always.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#419968) #
flopped the deadline, and have gone 4-8 since (54 win pace).

Whereas the Yankees aced the deadline (Frankie Montas! Andrew Benintendi!) and have gone 2-10 since. (27 win pace.)

You threw that one right down the middle on purpose, didn't you.
Mike D - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#419970) #
Mags, are you seriously suggesting that the Jays would not have benefited from an impact starter, impact reliever or impact lefthanded hitter? Most local and national observers fully expected them to get all three. They got zero.

My overall take on the trade deadline is that while it is somewhat easier to make the playoffs, it's not *easy* in the sense that you can take an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for granted, and tolerating flaws that might prove fatal in the name of "sustainability" or whatever carries significant risks.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#419971) #
finishing 7th in a 60gm season will never count as a playoffs team to me.

I'm with you on this one! I can't take anything that happened in 2020 seriously, up to and including the Dodgers championship. None of it meant anything.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#419973) #
are you seriously suggesting that the Jays would not have benefited

Oh, they would have benefitted. I'm not sure it would have helped this team enough, enough to make it worth while. A better shot at home field in the Wild Card series? It's not nothing, it's worth something. I don't know what it's worth and I don't know exactly what, say, Cincinnati was asking for - from Toronto - for Luis Castillo.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#419974) #
I think itís too early to criticize Atkinsí deadline moves. Getting three potentially good / controllable pitchers in Pop, Bass and White for probably not a lot in return looks pretty decent to me.

Itís hard to blast Atkins without knowing what other teams were asking for their players. Happ (165 wRC+ in August) could have been a difference-maker for the Jays but he didnít even get moved. Presumably the Cubs were asking for a ton for him. Would you have given up (say) Moreno and Tiedemann for him? At some point you have to draw the line.

Certainly you can question the teamís off-season moves ó signing Kikuchi, say, instead of Syndergaard. But hindsight is 20/20 and the team did add Gausman (4.4 WAR pitcher so far this year), Chapman (2.9 WAR so far) and Garcia. Those are some excellent moves, the first two especially. Clearly they didnít go far enough but many commentators, including some on this site, thought the Jays had an elite WS-calibre roster entering the 2022 season.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#419975) #
"Successful? 2015 was great fun and that team was capable of winning it all. But the 2016 team was clearly a much weaker outfit "

Of course they were weaker - in 2016 they let key FA's go and then at the deadline actually traded FOR prospects. It was embarassing.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#419976) #
"Whereas the Yankees aced the deadline (Frankie Montas! Andrew Benintendi!) and have gone 2-10 since. (27 win pace.)"

True, but the Yanks were already cold heading into the deadline (on a 8-11 clip) and everyone expected them to cool off after that crazy start. And they're pretty much in wait-for-the-playoffs mode anyways.

Jays otoh were smokin hot heading into the deadline. then....flop.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#419977) #
That's what makes it sting even more. After mucking around most of the year the Jays had finally got in a groove and were 12-3 heading into the deadline.

and then fizzle pop.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#419978) #
Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#419979) #
but it might!
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#419980) #
Oakland 1988 couldn't really improve on Biggio and Tapia - but they had Hassey and Polonia and old Dave Parker and a bunch of light hitting switch-hitters.

Polonia was actually a good part-time player in 1988.  He hit .292 in Oakland, and would draw a walk leading to a good .338 OBP in the context.  And he was 24/9 stealing bases which is pretty decent.   He ran well and only grounded into three double plays.  It all amounted to 1.5 bWAR which is a lot more than Tapia has had in his career... (scorn quota achieved).  More to the point, if opposing teams sent out RH pitchers (which they did a lot because of Canseco/McGwire/Henderson), Weiss who was playing every day at short would bat left (his stronger side by far).  He was a good player batting left, and  a "defensive specialist" batting right. 

At least, there was some kind of downside to sending out a RH starter. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#419981) #
Maybe what weíre witnessing is in part a coaching problem. Walker unable to get Berrios and Kikuchi on track, and the other coaches unable to instill a more disciplined team at the plate and in other facets of the game. Maybe the team wasnít as receptive to coaching as they might have been because they bought into the hype and were a bit over-entitled as a result.

Probably itís some combination of the above and the team being a few players (SP, LHB, and elite RP) short of a great roster.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#419982) #
I think this line-up leans towards "grip it and rip it" (with notable exceptions) anyway, but I have wondered if their sojourn through Dunedin and Buffalo didn't have a negative impact on plate approach. After all, you can't walk off Dunedin or Buffalo (well, you can, but artistic liberty and all).
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#419983) #
in 2016 they let key FA's go and then at the deadline actually traded FOR prospects.

Is Davis Price a plural?

Yes, yes, they let Ben Revere walk. They had Michael Saunders to replace him, which he did. And Dioner Navarro. They traded for prospects at the deadline? Francisco Liriano and Melvin Upton, Scott Feldman and Joaquin Benoit and bloody Dioner Navarro himself? (and Jason Grilli just before that?) Those guys were prospects?
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#419984) #
Italics begone! Avaunt and quit my sight.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#419985) #
"Francisco Liriano and Melvin Upton, Scott Feldman and Joaquin Benoit and bloody Dioner Navarro himself? (and Jason Grilli just before that?) Those guys were prospects?"

no those guys were just crappy.

but they actually used trade capital to add prospects McGuire and Ramirez at the deadline instead of trying to win. humiliating.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#419986) #
Schneider shakes up the batting order!

Hernandez sixth, Bichette seventh. I'm not sure about Kirk still hitting high in the lineup (he's fourth) seeing as how he's devolved into a slow singles hitter just taking at bats away from Tapia the deeper we get into the season. But messing with the batting order is always a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#419987) #
but they actually used trade capital to add prospects McGuire and Ramirez at the deadline instead of trying to win. humiliating.

You're kidding. McGuire and Ramirez were a bonus extracted from the Pirates for taking on Francisco Liriano's money. The Jays gave up Drew Bloody Hutchison in that trade. That's all. Liriano was better than Hutchison. That's a win. Prospects thrown in as well? That's a win. And you're complaining? You can't possibly be serious.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#419988) #
I might also point out out that Liriano, Benoit, and Grilli were the opposite of "crappy" for the 2016 team, and the Jays don't make the Wild Card game without them.

Upton and Feldman - they were crappy.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#419989) #
a contender using any trade capital whatsoever on prospects at the deadline is embarassing.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#419990) #
The trade capital was used to obtain a better pitcher. The prospects were an attached bribe, by a team eager to unload Liriano's money.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#419991) #
Are you saying they should have declined the bribe, and just taken Liriano?
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#419993) #
I think someone mentioned it at the start of the season but Pete Walker's off the field problems might be affecting his performance as pitching coach.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#419994) #
UO, please look at LAD. They gave up Stripling and White for our prospects. I like the Stripling acquisition and will probably like the White acquisition.

I am not really embarrassed that we have been picking up LAD's extra pitchers. Ryu would make the 3rd ex LAD SP to start for us this year.

I want us to be in that position to give up quality pitching for quality prospects.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#419995) #
bpoz is right. Both Stripling and White were trade capital.

Hutchison wasn't "trade capital", he was a replacement level throw in.
scottt - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#419996) #
Hutchison wasn't a throw in. He was the whole trade.

Btw, still curious to see who the PTBNL in the Groshans trade is. 
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#419997) #
Hutchison ... was a replacement level throw in.

While that's the type of player Hutchison was and is, and that's the part you would expect him to be in a trade - on this occasion he was the whole package. The trade was Drew Hutchison for Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire, and Harold Ramirez. Larceny like that is a felony in most jurisdictions, but Atkins did even better a year later on the trade that sent Liriano to Houston.
scottt - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#419998) #
It comes a time when you have to trade the prospects who have made it to the 40 roster but who will clearly not make the team.

Let's take Hagen Danner, for example. Any trade would be better than losing him on waivers.

As for embarrassing, I'll take AA's record on signing (or not) draftees. 

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#419999) #
As long as you're still thanking AA for Vlad, Kirk, and Moreno.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#420000) #
Kirk and Moreno were signed in Aug-Sept 2016.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#420001) #
they sure were. super cheapo deals signed by AA's scouts.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#420002) #
Who do you think inherited more young talent, AA (Braves) or Atkins (Jays)? Gotta think it was Alex.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#420003) #
Kirk and Moreno were signed in Aug-Sept 2016.

Details, details.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#420004) #
Hutchison wasn't the trade. It was the Jays taking on Liriano's bad contract for prospects.

Similar trades were Arroyo's contract and Toussaint to Atlanta, where Gosselin was the throw in, or Cozart's contract and Wilson to the Giants for a PTBNL (Williams), who was waived before even pitching for the Angels.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#420005) #
As long as you're still thanking AA for Vlad, Kirk, and Moreno.

Maybe Atkins does. The same way Anthopoulos thanks John Hart for Ronald Acuna and John Coppolella for Austin Riley. That's the job.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#420006) #
Hutchison wasn't the trade. It was the Jays taking on Liriano's bad contract for prospects.

The historical record begs to differ.

August 1, 2016: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#420007) #
for the record, I ain't the one who brought up AA!

Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#420008) #
That would have been me, right at the very top, where I compared what Atkins did at this deadline to what Anthopoulos did in 2014.

I accept full responsibility.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#420009) #
And that brings us neatly back to the question I asked myself - and by extension, all of you as well - did Atkins fail to a Big Move at this year's deadline because he couldn't get pone done. He wanted to, he tried to, it just didn't work out. Or did he, like Anthopoulos in 2014, choose not to do so, decide that this particular version of the team wasn't worth that type of investment.

I don't know. I think it's possible, even if the first option is more likely.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#420010) #
Spirited discussion!! Will be a great off season UNLESS we win the WS then the off season will be ruined.

If this happen I will use/abuse 2019 the Washington Capitols.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#420011) #
That got out of here in a hurry.
mathesond - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#420012) #
(Sigh) Yet another meaningless early-game home run from Vladdy.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#420013) #
Of course, the other alternative was that there just wasn't anyone on the market that would have helped this team. After all, what this team really needs is a young, LHH OF, with some OBP skills.... oh wait (I'm just stirring the pot).
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#420014) #
(Sigh) Yet another meaningless early-game home run from Vladdy.
Taking the lead isn't meaningless. The Jays have been behind early lately,
mathesond - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#420015) #
Taking the lead isn't meaningless. The Jays have been behind early lately,

You know that, and I know that, but I'm not sure our resident complainer-about-Vladdy knows that...
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#420016) #
Vladdy is .285/.356/.511 (wRC+ 142) after the home run. That is a very fine slash line in a low-offense year.
mathesond - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#420017) #
Yes, but is it a clutch 142 wRC?
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#420018) #
Bradley Jr. is the best defensive outfielder the Jays have, and it isn't close.

Considering the Jays pitching issues, he should be out there most of the time.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#420019) #
Today's fun fact. As we all know, Alek Manoah hits a lot of batters. He led the league last year, he's leading again this year. He's hit 28 batters in less than 250 career innings. The career leaders in this category runs to more than 1000 pitchers, who all hit 34 batters or more. Manoah's got an outside chance of making that list this very year in just his second season.

So what I wondered - who hit batters most frequently, in the history of the game? Easy - copy and paste the bb-ref page into a spreadsheet, write an extremely simple equation, and then Sort the results.

The Top 10, in order:
Gus Shallix (7.5), Alek Manoah (8.9) Ed Knouff (9.0), Randy Choate (9.1), Danny Friend (9.2), Aaron Loup (9.8), Ed Doheny (10.0), Jack Easton (10.4), Rolando Arrojo (10.4), Byung-Hyun Kim (10.5)

Shellix, Knouff, Easton pitched in the old American Association in the 1880s. Doheny and Friend were also 19th century guys. Manoah hits batters more frequently than any pitcher since the twentieth century began. Next season he'll overtake the career totals of Jim Palmer and Warren Spahn, in his third season.

Do not dig in.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#420020) #
I hate these extended innings
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#420021) #
"Vladdy is .285/.356/.511 (wRC+ 142) after the home run. That is a very fine slash line in a low-offense year."

well....the wRC+ is tuned to that lower league average so it's still not good enough.....but it's just really one bad month for Vladdy this year that's killing his line:

* APR 143
* MAY 93
* JUN 164
* JUL 153
* AUG 137 (not including his 2 hits tonight...probably up around 150+ for the month now)
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#420022) #
142 wRC+ is definitely good enough. Unless you expect your star hitters to be better than that every year of his career (and this season isnít done yet).

142 wRC+ would currently be eighth among qualified AL hitters, behind Ramirez, Arraez, and Abreu.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#420023) #
142 wRC+ is definitely good enough. Unless you expect your star hitters to be better than that every year of his career (and this season isnít done yet).

142 wRC+ would currently be eighth among qualified AL hitters, behind Ramirez, Arraez, and Abreu.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#420024) #
The Chapman bases loaded DP hurts.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#420026) #
Yeah I have high expectations for Vladdy. Generational expectations. He's a perfect hitter.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#420027) #
This is painful to watch. Even the replay challenges are feeble.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#420028) #
Veteraness and World Seriesness doesnít seem to be the answer. Surprisingly.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#420029) #
Three errors in six innings is some kind of special, but the two that inning were especially appalling.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#420030) #
That replay challenge could very well have cost them if there had been a play at the plate that didn't go their way. 

The defence has not been crisp for weeks. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#420031) #
What just happened? I missed the play that resulted in the fourth Baltimore run.

I wonder whether Vladdyís fielding miscue early in the game (which didnít lead to a run scored that inning but led to some extra high-stress pitches for Manoah) may have contributed to the problems in the sixth.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#420032) #
Hernandez made a lovely throw and had the runner dead to rights, but Kirk just plain whiffed on it.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#420033) #
Ouch. Thank you for the summary.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#420034) #
Feels like another two run game here. I hope to jinx it but I donít see them scoring off this bullpen.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#420035) #
Oh my. Schneider may get canned after tonight. Wow. Horrible.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#420036) #
That was bad too.  A swing and miss on the hit-and-run, and then the prior poor challenge likely cost them a baserunner. 
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#420037) #
Schneider is managing this game like a junior coach manages an NHL team. It reeks of panic. Billl Laforge memories arise.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#420038) #
LOL, they took the error away from Kirk and gave it to Hernandez, who made a practically perfect throw. Even the official scorer is having a terrible game.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#420039) #
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#420040) #
Kirk looks as tired as it is possible for a man to look, this side of the grave.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#420041) #
It's bleak.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#420042) #
Would be nice to get Moreno back up to spell our catchers. Itís rather clear at this point that at his current level of conditioning Kirk is not an every day player. He should be sitting twice per week.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#420043) #
Please, I'm not a "resident" complainer about Vlad. I'm simply the only one willing to consider that Vlad is not that good against elite pitchers on this board. If a home run against Dean Kremer is your evidence against my argument, well then.

I've always maintained he is the best hitter on the team and a superstar. He's just not one of the few who can get a hit or deliver consistently when it counts against the best. That homer today is kind of the problem with Vlad.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#420044) #
You canít bring Moreno up. That would impair the roster flexibility so hard earned at the deadline.

(Apologies -watching terrible baseball raises my sarcasm meter.). Iím struggling to remember a performance that reflected so badly on all levels of the team from the GM to manager to the players.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#420045) #
But, but ... Kirk is a bonafide superstar now who is one of the best hitting players in MLB! He went to the all star game!

I always advocating for trading someone like Kirk a few months ago to sell high and receive something very very good in return. He's pretty exposed now and this team has 3 catchers and will need to sell Kirk at lower value this offseason.

I've also advocated for trading Vlad or Bo or both if they refuse at some point (before their contracts are up) to sign long term.

Things are not as bad as they seem, but damn does this look ugly right now. Bo looks lost as he presses. Vlad looks great. Atkins looks like his peers (Antonetti and Elias) have schooled him in roster construction, Manoah is getting tired...
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#420046) #
Oh yeah, is it too early to say I miss Montoyo?

I do like Schneider's line ups and aggression on the base paths but that's about it.
Mike D - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#420047) #
This is the last rant I make about the trade deadline, I promise.

It's useless, but also unnecessary, to speculate about whether prices were prohibitively high. After all, many teams made many trades successfully.

We can infer:

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Phillies offer for Syndegaard.

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Twins offer for Fulmer.

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Phillies offer for Robertson.

The Jays chose not to acquire Iglesias without cash considerations coming back, considering the negligible talent cost to the Braves who agreed to pay the full remaining freight.

All of this "what if GM X demanded Moreno and Tiedemann for middling player Y" speculation is silly, because Moreno + Tiedemann as headliners would have beaten every single accepted trade offer at the trade deadline other than the Soto trade. They are currently #7 and #34 on Pipeline and Pipeline now includes the 2022 draft class.

It was manifestly a risk-averse deadline, but sadly a very risky one in terms of this August and September.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#420048) #
Now thatís a bit of an overreaction. There is zero need for the Jays to trade Kirk for less this offseason. They just need to both work on his conditioning and realize a guy playing catcher half the time needs more full days off.
smyttysmullet94 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#420049) #
It's really hard to understand why anyone on this website brings up Alex Anthoupolos as a red herring argument. The dude literally hasn't been the GM of this team in 7 years...maybe it's time to look at the person who has been GM for the better part of a decade and judge him accordingly.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#420050) #
Kasi, not writing Kirk off. He's obviously very talented at hitting, but how else could the Jays have addressed the need for another ace or a very good LHH? You need to give something good to get something good. I don't want to trade prospects and Teoscar, Gurriel, Espinal, Jansen etc are not good enough to bring back a solid LHH. That basically leaves Bo and Kirk as the players you could trade in season and the front office wasn't going to trade Bo. It just seemed practical to trade your hot shot, bat first catcher since you have major holes on your team and excess at the C position.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#420051) #
Also, things look dark right now because the Orioles look so damn good. Fundamentally sound, lots of stolen bases, clutch hitting, etc etc. They look very good. Here is Mike Elias, their GM this week talking:

"Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,Ē - GM Mike Elias
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#420052) #
I was at the game, and I was very surprised Manoah came out for the 6th.
He was not fooling anyone in the 5th and wasnít sharp after his dominant 4th.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 16 2022 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#420053) #
I wonder what the ask was from Cleveland for Ramirez in the off season. Bo, Kirk +?
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#420054) #

Michael Harris 8-year deal, if completed with Braves, is expected be for about $72M

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) August 17, 2022
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#420055) #

How to keep a core together, by the @Braves.

- Austin Riley, through 2032
- Matt Olson, 2030
- Michael Harris II, 2030
- Ronald AcuŮa Jr., 2028
- Vaughn Grissom, 2028
- Ozzie Albies, 2027
- Spencer Strider, 2027
- William Contreras, 2027
- Kyle Wright, 2026
- Max Fried, 2024

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 17, 2022
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 06:55 AM EDT (#420056) #
<br>Also, things look dark right now because the Orioles look so damn good. Fundamentally sound,


That last part is always what gets me. The Jays almost always SEEM to be sloppily about stuff like this than other teams. Of course we don't see/ hear the same number of games. But I definitely perceive rhe Jays to consistently be less sound than thr teams they play against leading to mental errors and losses.
I don't know how accurate it is. But it feels right for many losses.
Paul D - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#420057) #
I don't know if the problem with any team, ever, has been it's best player. That's poor sports radio analysis. The problem with the Jays is that they two of their starting pitchers have been bad and their bullpen hasn't been great. The offence is scuffling now but it's not the problem
Glevin - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#420058) #
"We can infer:

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Phillies offer for Syndegaard.

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Twins offer for Fulmer.

The Jays chose not to beat a moderate Phillies offer for Robertson."

Except those players aren't very good and would have made no difference to the Jays right now. Bass, White and Pop have been good. The issue in this losing skid is that the offense has been awful and a couple of starters have imploded.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#420059) #
Something's rotten in the state of the Blue Jays.

They did some moves at the deadline...no reaction.

They changed managers....no reaction.

The team likely needs some major trades or free agent signings in the off-season.

Interesting series against the slumping Yankees coming up, two wounded teams going head to head.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#420060) #
"They did some moves at the deadline...no reaction."

I mean there was a reaction. And it was similar to all our reactions to those moves.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#420061) #
I'm with Glevin generally.  It wouldn't have been unreasonable to pick up Syndergaard in addition to White, once the club knew that Stripling was headed for the IL. 

At the start of the year, I was hoping that the club would give Walker time off, at least from his major league pitching coach duties, to deal with the DUI charges.  No club does that though (as far as I know), and we know that the current Blue Jay management is not likely to be a leader.   They did cut ties with Osuna quickly, but DV (rightfully) has a different status than DUI.
James W - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#420062) #
I can't take anything that happened in 2020 seriously, up to and including the Dodgers championship. None of it meant anything.

Oddly, it's the rare (recent) example of the best team actually winning the playoff crapshoot.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#420063) #
Agreed that regardless of how the season ends (hopefully with a playoff berth), major changes are needed on the roster. Springer on year 2 of a 6 year deal is already showing signs of breaking down physically, so moving him to a RF/DH hybrid role is likely a requirement, which means they need to add a legit CF. They'll also need to decide between Hernandez and Gurriel as far as who to keep for 2023 in that scenario. That's not even factoring the pitching which will likely need at least 2 SP (unless they want to pencil Kikuchi in to one of those spots, which is a risk given what we have seen this season) and at least one legitimate late inning relief option. Maybe the latter is Pearson if he's healthy, but they can't go into another season with the same problem as the last two. I also hope they seriously look at managerial candidates this winter rather than just hand Schneider an extension (which is what I expect to happen).

I'm not sure what the issue is with the 2022 team. The talent, for the most part, is there. It is missing something. Obviously more talent would help, especially with Berrios and Kikuchi not performing well, but maybe a Semien-like presence in the clubhouse to break up the loosey-goosey atmosphere would help as well.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#420064) #
I am not panicking but am disappointed in this year.

I definitely don't want any more expensive long term contracts.

Hope Berrios and Kikuchi can be a lot better next year. #6 White should be capable to help the rotation when it has injuries.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#420066) #
I don't think major overhauls are needed but it would be nice to fine tune the roster.

The only guy that's really a worry spot for me going forward is Berrios - for me I still think he'll be fine and give us good value as a #3SP but if he doesn't then yeah we need to add an SP cuz I don't believe in Stripling as more than a bottom rotation guy. But still - I would bet on Berrios being good again next year. Other than that...sure it's a shame that Ryu and Kikuchi are wasted money but we still have likely a strong 4 man rotation ahead of them making them 5th SP at best which isn't hard to replace so it's just money wasted, not actually a hole in the roster.

There is good trade bait that makes sense to trade, though - Jansen and 1 of Teoscar/Gurriel have good value and would be nice upgrades for most teams. And prospects can be traded too. The best target for us I still think would be a more expensive but legit CF. That would really sort out our roster nicely. This is a trade I really wanted to happen this year already, though I get that maybe there wasn't a CF like that available (though i still think there had to be - even if we had to juice up a package to make him available).

but they sure as hell better not complain that their hands are tied financially due to Ryu and Kikuchi contracts.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#420067) #
AA has done a terrific job in Atlanta and winning the WS has given him more finances - of course he's also been smart in not resigning the aged/injury prone Josh Donaldson & did not give in to the thirtysomething Freddie Freeman, replacing him with a younger Matt Olson.

The Jays did the right thing in not resigning David Price but should have dismantled the team after 2016 including trading Donaldson who still had value - I was in favour of a complete teardown and rebuild.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#420068) #
How about the Indians who seem to have made the smart decision in trading Lindor, which is working out great for them and in keeping Ramirez and the Indians are once again contending. The Astros have let both Springer & Correa walk and are perhaps the best team in the AL because their farm system is productive - so it's not just a matter of spending but smart baseball decisions and not emptying out your farm system for a one shot deal.
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#420070) #
<br>definitely the tram needs to be doing the most thorough investigation on Berrios possible le this season to the offseason. A bunch of good leads - that Twitter thread someone shared earlier has good speculation, to a blue jays nation piece on changing side of the rubber.
Video analysis looking at armm angle, wind-up etc to find if anything has changed. Full medical exam to see if there's an injury. Berrios being unreliable would be a huge budget blow, even with the good team wins record.

Another question is the game calling. Are there decisions made that are leading to bad outcomes.
I would expect a team to be doing this anyways but have no idea. Not doing this would be a disappointment.

I do think Kikuchi needs a Japanese speaking sports psychologist and trying an opposite handed opener to see if it makes a difference. Maybe some different game calling de is ions as some have mentioned here. Don't know if that will happen. Feels like the team is unable to conceive of Kikuchis limitations amd possibilities to address them.

I feel like this team is very hard to root for and their window has passed through bad luck and a lack of vision
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#420071) #
I concur about AA in Atlanta. No doubt he inherited a lot of young talent, but what he's done the last few years to extend key pieces, sign good short-term FA's, and continue to add more young talent that was drafted under his watch (Harris II, Grissom, Strider) has been impressive. Hard to say if he would have been this good had he stayed in Toronto though, as spending two years working under Andrew Friedman might have been exactly what he needed to take the next step as a GM.

As far as 2023, I think "major" to me would be breaking up the core a bit. It's clear the FO viewed Hernandez/Gurriel as pieces of the core that was going to help the team compete for a WS because they had ample time to trade either one when their value/control was higher and they never did. Unfortunately, much like waiting too long to rebuild in 2017-18, it's gotten to the point that both will only have a year of control left, which will limit the type of return. Seems like trading one to Miami would make the sense given their needs. Jansen should have value as well, as I don't expect Atkins to move either or Kirk or Moreno, and Jansen is a capable starting catcher.

As mentioned, a CF (preferably a LH hitting one) should be the primary focus aside from pitching. Not sure what's realistically out there. Maybe the Pirates would move Reynolds but his CF defense has slipped significantly this season. Nimmo is a FA but the Jays have a bunch of FA deals on the roster already, including some dead money (Ryu) and possible dead money (Kikuchi), so I don't see them adding more big money FA's. Maybe they can find a smaller trade for someone like Trent Grisham who is having a down offensive season with the Padres, but not sure how highly the Padres view him. Either way, finding a legit CF won't be easy.

Hopefully the Jays start winning soon so we can wait until November to discuss 2023 stuff.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#420072) #
At the start of the year, I was hoping that the club would give Walker time off, at least from his major league pitching coach duties, to deal with the DUI charges.

Realistically, I don't imagine there will be any significant legal or professional consequences for Walker. As far as we know it's his first offence, and he was lucky enough not to injure or kill anyone, so he'll probably promise he'll never do it again and maybe take a course that reminds him never to do it again.

I obviously don't know Pete Walker, but I don't think there's much reason to think this is weighing on him & affecting his job performance.
Glevin - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#420075) #
"The best target for us I still think would be a more expensive but legit CF. "

Agreed and someone LH or SH and who can take a walk. Jays need to diversify their offense a bit. Brandon Nimmo is a free agent and he might be a perfect fit for the team.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#420077) #
I think the point about having a productive farm system and being willing to let players walk, or trade them, once theyíre close to being past their prime (Springer, Correa, Lindor) is an interesting one. Cleveland and Houston seem to have done well in this regard. The Twins might have sold high on Berrios at a similar stage, although they seem to have bought high on Martin and SWR in exchange for him.

The Jays have had some success with free agents (Semien, Happ, Gausman in year 1 of his contract) but have done less well with others (Ryu, Kikuchi, Roark). Springer has been good when healthy, but heís obviously had a lot of injury issues and the Jays are probably going to regret that contract, especially if the team misses the postseason this year.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#420078) #
Seems like trading one to Miami would make the sense given their needs.

Why? Miami is bad and cheap. They might need some good players, but it's not clear they want any. I don't see why they'd want older players like Gurriel or Hernandez, regardless of whether they have one or two years left under contract.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#420079) #
Rangers just fired their FO.

Maybe we can pry Garcia or Tavares from them.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#420083) #
Oddly, it's the rare (recent) example of the best team actually winning the playoff crapshoot.

I know. It's like rain on your wedding day.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#420084) #
Interesting powerplay by Chris Young in Texas - Jon Daniels has been around a long time.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#420089) #
It would be extremely disappointing if the Jays can't be in on FAs like Nimmo this offseason. That would basically mean they have no money to spend, and that it was a huge mistake acquiring a player like Merrifield with his 6.75MM price tag for '23.

At this point it's fairly obvious that, absent a massive turnaround these last 7 weeks, the barrio needs to be broken up.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#420090) #
It's nice to see Espinal regaining his mojo.  Yesterday's bunt was a real beauty.  He does so many things well.  And then there's Raimel Tapia (scorn comin')- the man doesn't strike out much but grounds into a lot of double plays, so when Schneider does the right thing and starts the runner on first with less than two out, does he cut down his swing?  Nope.  Swings through it. 

Chapman leads off, Kirk DHs and bats cleanup, Tapia bats 7th and Espinal 8th in today's lineup.  At least they have Tapia and Espinal in the correct order for the hit and run.  I do have to wonder about Kirk DHing.  He's looked very tired.  It would have probably been a good day for Biggio to DH or to give Guerrero Jr. a DH day, assuming that Springer is being eased into the job. 
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#420091) #
Well, if we go down, at least we're going down Tapia'ing til the end!
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#420093) #
I'm glad and relieved to see many Beauxites acknowledging/discussing the flaws/rottenness to this team. It is frustrating but at the same time, hearing and reading the comments helps to remind that things can still be corrected since the team has time, money and most importantly a system and major league roster to already work with.

I feel sorry for Schneider and Montoyo...they both seem like capable managers who are/were sitting ducks. I bet you this FO retains Atkins this off season then recruits a GM like Bochy, Scioscia or Washington to "herd the flock."

Then they will likely trade for a player like Donaldson, in the sense that someone with a new attitude will come in who can counter balance the "good times vibes" that the team has now. It will be sweet irony because Shapiro and Atkins broke up and cast off any of those "high maintenance" type players 5 years ago and then started sending their home grown players to Navy seal training.
ae_scott - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#420095) #
At this point it's fairly obvious that, absent a massive turnaround these last 7 weeks, the barrio needs to be broken up.

It's true that this team somehow seems to be very much less than the sum of its parts. I have no idea what to do about that, but I will be very sad if management decides that the problem is "the players are having too much fun playing baseball".

92-93 - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#420096) #
This isn't the have fun league, it's the get it done league.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#420097) #
The first two weeks of Schneider's tenure seemed to indicate that his approach was what the team needed, and he would surely be signing a contract to manage the team in the years ahead. The last two weeks have demonstrated, with equal clarity, that he's not the solution to anybody's problems and likely won't even be in the organization after this year ends.

I've always thought that, in baseball, two weeks don't mean anything. Except, of course, who gets to call themselves champions at the end of the year.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#420098) #
Stripling activated, Thornton optioned.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#420099) #
Raimel Tapia's scouting report from 2017 on fangraphs is illustrative of something.  He was the 90th overall prospect in baseball.  The report says:

Hit 50/60 (OK), Game Power 30/40 (OK), Raw Power 45/50 (OK), Speed 60/60 (OK), Field 40/50 (OK), Throws 55/55 (Nope), FV 50

Of course, the biggest issue is not the inaccurate throwing grade.  The biggest issues are in order: 1. the complete lack of any reference to plate control/discipline/willingness to take a walk and 2. baseball IQ.  There is, of course, some correlation between 1. and 2. 

For what it's worth, Tapia had been in triple A at the end of 2016 at age 22.  He had 110 PAs there, with 2 walks and no home runs.  It's very, very hard to succeed if two of the three true outcomes are strongly negative. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#420100) #
In Hall of Names news, Xzavion Curry made his major league debut. He's the 9th player in major league history whose first name begins with an X- 7 Xaviers, Xander Bogaerts and now Xzavion Curry.  He wins. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#420101) #
So I'm looking at the Jays bb-ref page, which I do every day of the season (I live on bb-ref), and as usual I'm obsessing over the pitching. It is my view that most of what has troubled the 2022 team has taken place on the mound. And as usual I'm puzzling over the two guys in the rotation whose ERA+ is in the 70s. Which is really, really bad. Sub-replacement level bad.

Kikuchi (ERA+ of 75) is being graded slightly better than Berrios (ERA+ of 70) here. I don't know why and don't care all that much. Kikuchi doesn't give up nearly as many hits. He walks many, many, many more of course. But walks aren't quite as bad as hits. Kikuchi strikes out quite a few more, but I don't regard strikeouts as a relevant measure of past performance.

What's missing, of course, is something else. You will sometimes hear talk during the game of the need to spread out the damage that the other team does. You will give up hits, if you're a pitcher. It can't be helped. But you don't want them bunching all their hits against you, into a single inning. That way, runs will score.

The difference between Berrios and Kikuchi this season is the same principle, this time working in reverse. Berrios has given up an of damage similar to that of Kikuchi over the course of the season. But Berrios has managed to bunch much of this badness into a handful - a too-large handful, no doubt - of very, very bad games. Kikuchi has graciously distributed a similar level of badness over his entire season.

It's the best reason I can come up with for the extraordinarily weird fact that the team has a 6-14 record when Kikuchi starts. And a 16-7 record, best on the team, when Berrios starts.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#420103) #
In March I wrote: "I still think the Jays will be hard-pressed to construct a better team than the one they fielded in game 162 of the 2021 season."

I'm sticking with that assertion, and I think that it may hold true for 2023 as well, unless Bichette, VGJ and Teo become 4-6 WAR players again (possible) and Springer somehow has a healthy season. The rotation is probably going to be a question mark as well. It's strange that we might look back on 2021 as halcyon days for the post-AA Blue Jays.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#420104) #
1. the complete lack of any reference to plate control/discipline/willingness to take a walk and 2. baseball IQ.

Like a tall, LH Alfredo Griffin!

Tapia's a throwback to that generation of Dominican players who came into the majors back in the 1980s. "You can't walk off the island."
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#420106) #
<br>sometimes fangraphs live scores are so off. Showing sp Vith as leadoff hitter striking out
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#420107) #
Mike I can't agree that hitting and running with Espinal and Tapia was the right choice in the 7th inning down by two. Sure, in the early innings it makes lot of sense, but in that circumstance the one and only thing that you can't have happen is getting a runner (not the tying run) thrown out on the bases. The Tapia DP issue is there but doesn't justify that call. Schneider had a horrible game yesterday. I'm a huge Schneider fan - I've listened to probably hours of interviews with him while he managed the C's and he's a very thoughtful guy. We'll see how the rest of the year plays out but, in my view, there have been signs recently that the job is too big for him.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#420108) #
Kikuchi is in the bullpen!!
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#420109) #
unless Bichette, VGJ and Teo become 4-6 WAR players again (possible)

Well - Bichette has definitely had a disappointing year, at least by the standard he'd already established for himself. He's still only 24, he's still got a great work ethic. (Obviously possible.) Guerrero's there already, of course. (Actually achieved.) Hernandez has played at that level this year, but he's only been available for 79% of the schedule. He does turn 30 in a few months, and players don't tend to get healthier in their 30s. (Somewhat doubtful.)

Kikuchi is in the bullpen!

As President Ford famously said, "our long national nightmare is over."
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#420110) #
I don't know, Nigel. I would happily do that with Espinal at bat and Tapia on the bases in that situation.  I have complete confidence that Espinal would make contact and there would be an increased chance of him reaching base with the second baseman heading towards the bag.  Long sequence vs. short sequence offence. 


greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#420111) #
I guess it's Manoah, Gausman, Berrios, Stripling, White for now. Just typing that feels less stressful already.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#420112) #
Sure, I'd have more confidence that Espinal would make contact than Tapia but I still don't think the risk reward trade off makes sense in the 7th with one out already. The benefit of getting the runner to second is greatly reduced in the circumstance and the runner isn't the tying run. I just don't see that the marginal benefit of avoiding the DP and maybe getting the IFs moving justifies the significant risk of making an out on the base paths. Springer and Vladdy were the next two hitters.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#420113) #
Not to worry.  The Blue Jays are heading to the place where losing streaks come to an end- Yankee Stadium. 
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#420114) #
Stripling's impending free agency is now looming large for the Jays - I wouldn't have said that a while ago. He's also a challenging free agency candidate to value.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#420115) #
A 32 year old with a career 107 ERA+ and who has shown that he can throw 100-120 innings.  The nice comp from his BBRef list is Woody Williams.  Obviously he's not going to get what Ryu got a few years ago, but something like 3X12 makes sense. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#420116) #
He has been superb this year. I'm sure the Jays would like to have him back. But some other team may well be willing to offer him more years and/or dollars.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#420117) #
It's like rain on your wedding day.

[sigh]... Always a bridesmaid...

ďTo be good, and to do good, is all we have to do.Ē
President John Adams

krose - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#420118) #
Stripling looks like the smartest Blue Jay to me. He has limited athletic ability but gets the most from it.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#420119) #
3X12 - to which I believe he would justifiably say "why should I settle for what Kikutchi got? - when I have been a much superior pitcher":)
Four Seamer - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#420120) #
There are few more salivating match-ups for opposing pitchers than seeing themselves lined up for a start against the Blue Jays on get-away day.

(Hoping I just reverse-jinxed Voth there.)
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#420121) #
BTW - that's more of a commentary on the excess of the Kikutchi deal than a remark on the appropriateness of that kind of a for Stripling. Something in that range feels about right to me. Length of contract seems a tricky one to me though.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#420122) #
But some other team may well be willing to offer [Stripling] more years and/or dollars.

And a promise that he'll be a starter. No more swingman stuff.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#420123) #
Schneider better not pull Stripling in the middle of a perfect game, unless Ross himself says he's gassed.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#420124) #
Somehow it wouldn't surprise me if Stripling threw a perfect game and the Jays lost in extras.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#420125) #
The Jays have been extremely reluctant to let Stripling and now White face a line-up for a third time. Surely that has to go out the window today?
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#420126) #
Please tell me that was *not* a catchable ball.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#420127) #
Please tell me that was *not* a catchable ball.

Not even close. Perfectly placed between the infielders and the outfield.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#420128) #
Ross Stripling pitches like a grownup.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#420129) #
Who are all these #1/2 starters pitching for the Oís, and where have they been hiding them all this time?
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#420130) #
Stripling is smart and even-termpered.  There are all kinds of ways that a pitcher can succeed, as we have seen with the best Blue Jay starters over the years. Intelligence and a calm demeanor is an important key asset for some of them. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#420131) #
That was a helluva play by Bichette, and in a still scoreless game it may end up Looming Large.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#420132) #
where have they been hiding them all this time?

This particular one has been hiding in the US capitol these last few years, pitching badly in their bullpen, until they DFA'd him this year. A waiver claim, and the Orioles - did something to him!
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#420133) #
Ack.  A typo (even-tempered) and the most annoying redundancy (important key) in one paragraph.  Dewey, I am sorry for any damage caused to your eyes!
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#420134) #
Stripling has been excellent this season. Much needed boost to a rotation that got poor seasons out of both Berrios and Kikuchi.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#420135) #
What on earth would you be doing putting in a LHP (Perez) to pitch to Tapia with Springer on the bench and an entire RHH stretch of the line-up after that? Does he not know who Tapia is? Stupid but thank you, that was a gift.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#420136) #
Scorn has its uses, eh?
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#420138) #
What on earth would you be doing putting in a LHP (Perez) to pitch to Tapia

I don't know if you're watching the broadcast, but Buck was saying that before Perez even threw a pitch. And... yeah.
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#420139) #
Stripling has been excellent this season. Much needed boost to a rotation that got poor seasons out of both Berrios and Kikuchi.

And Ryu
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#420140) #
I'm not (at work) - I guess I'm not smarter than a Buck Martinez:(
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#420141) #
Scorn has its uses, eh?

We clearly haven't had enough lately - this month he's become cold Tapia, hitting .206 since the calendar turned to August.

Well, we must accept these gifts when they're given to us.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#420142) #
Springer hasn't hit LHP this year and Perez doesn't have such pronounced splits, so the Orioles were probably better off going with the freshest RP instead of worrying about which arm he throws with.

Buck thought it was a good idea to bunt in the 5th inning of a tie game, so it's probably best not to take managing ideas from him.
James W - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#420143) #
and the Orioles - did something to him!

These really aren't the Orioles of yesteryear, who couldn't figure out Kevin Gausman, Jake Arrieta, and surely others that I can't remember right now. (Well, Buck Showalter and his team are gone.)
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#420144) #
I guess I'm not smarter than a Buck Martinez

Well, you had to find a moment to write all that down. Buck gets the big bucks (see what I did there?) to say that stuff right away.
ae_scott - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#420145) #
My goodness that was a good at bat by Gurriel Jr.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#420146) #
Buck thought it was a good idea to bunt in the 5th inning of a tie game,

In that particular situation... Tapia isn't exactly a disciplined, bat-control kind of guy. His approach is basically to swing at every fastball he sees. The next batter hit a shallow popup, so it wouldn't have done any good. But with that hitter, that part of the lineup - not totally insane.
James W - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#420147) #
Oh hey, baseball CAN be fun sometimes.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#420148) #
Kirk's first extra-base hit in three weeks.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#420149) #
I know Springer has struggled against LHP this year but he has crushed LHP over his career. And in what universe do you want to give the opposing manager any reason to PH for Tapia? Aren't you praying to whatever God you believe in that he doesn't PH for Tapia if he brings in a RH reliever?
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#420150) #
"seeing as how he's devolved into a slow singles hitter just taking at bats away from Tapia"

More scorn, more scoring.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#420151) #
Oh hey, baseball CAN be fun sometimes.

Which usually involves scoring runs...which is why I'm not sure MLB deadened the balls so much this year. Hasn't been a lot of hitting in 2022
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#420152) #
Yeah, it probably helps the team more tossing the scorn at Kirk. He's a more important player. And he'd earned it. You're welcome.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#420153) #
Pop: don't fizzle.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#420154) #
Baltimore has 45 games remaining, including 7 versus Houston and 10 more with Toronto.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#420155) #
I like Pop, but as Shulman pointed out, he doesn't get into a good position to field after his delivery.

Hazel Mae's comment about Espinal backing off his pre-game routine after speaking to Vladdy Jr. was interesting.  I noticed a better stance from him a few games ago.  He's going to be good the rest of the year. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#420156) #
I'll venture a guess that the exit velocity on those two Espinal hits today were higher than any of his over the last two months. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#420157) #
[Pop] doesn't get into a good position to field after his delivery.

Neither did Bob Gibson. Of course, he was Bob Gibson, athletic freak.

One of the things I remember vividly about Greg Maddux - he released the pitch, and while the ball was still en route to the batter, he did this little hop that got him faced up properly and ready to field.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#420158) #
You could be right Mike. Both of Espinalís hits came off the bat at 100mph today
Dewey - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#420159) #
Two things: 1.) what a difference-maker Springer is! -- hope he didnít anger his elbow again on that slide into home. And 2.) As Gausman said weeks ago, itís the Ďlittle thingsí getting done (or not) that will help determine how far this team can go in 2022. Baltimore was mostly quite sound on the little things in this series.

O.K., three things: 3.) some of the barrio remind me too much of Jose Reyes circa 2015 -- showing as much concern with the camera as with the play on the field.
92-93 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#420163) #
The get it done league. Josh Donaldson just crushed a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th with the Yankees down 7-4.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#420165) #
I donít think we can look at last year as a high water mark compared to this year since itís obvious that playing in a minor league park or spring training park positively inflated the offense.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#420166) #
So what is left after today?
  • Jays: NYY (7), Boston (6), Tampa (8), Baltimore (10), LAA (3), Cubs (3), Pirates (3), Texas (3), Philly (2). The season ending 3 in Baltimore looms large now.
  • Rays: NYY (6), Boston (9), Jays (8), KC (4), LAA (4), Miami (2), Texas (3), Houston (6), Cleveland (3), none vs Baltimore left (10-9 against them)
  • Baltimore: NYY (3), Boston (10), Jays (10), Cubs (1), White Sox (3), Houston (7), Cleveland (3), Oakland (3), Washington (2), Detroit (3)
Who knew Baltimore would be a bigger threat than Boston at this stage? Weird. Jays tied with Tampa for the 2nd/3rd wild card slots, 1 1/2 behind Seattle, 1 up on Minnesota, 1 1/2 on Baltimore, 2 on the ChiSox, 4 on Boston (not out of it yet) - everyone else is 10+ behind.

For run differential the Jays are still the best non-Yankee/Astro team in the AL. I still like the Jays odds. I just hope the key pitchers (Manoah/Gausman) aren't gassed and can stay strong for the last month + and get this team to the playoffs. Manaoh-Gausman-Berrios-Stripling-White I like as a rotation.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#420167) #
From the radio today:

Berrios has an average against below .160 for his curveball.

He hasnít issued more than 2 walks in any start this season.

His fastball has an average against close to .400 and OPS against over 1.000

Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 02:20 AM EDT (#420168) #
Josh Donaldson just crushed a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th with the Yankees down 7-4.

Donaldson really needed that. The local fans have been calling for his head on a pike all season long. It seems they're absolutely outraged that he's not the same guy at 36 that he was at 28. The bat's nothing like it was, not even close, but he's a league average hitter who still plays a great third base.
Michael - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#420169) #
I've got to say I know it looks bad when the Jays are struggling and making mental errors, but I really like the fun energy of the team, and it plays better when they are scoring runs like they did late in this game. Also, Stripling has been worth his weight in gold this season. Manoah and Stripling have overperformed to make up for several of the underperforming pitchers. I do also wish they will let him pitch longer in future games even if it isn't a perfect game. Stripling only threw 72 pitches (52 strikes for a 72% strike percentage). Stripling also had a Tango game score of 83 if I calculated it correctly, which is pretty fantastic.

I do like the juggling the lineup and trying Chapman leading off given Springer wasn't starting.

Even with Tapia in the starting lineup the Jays had 3 starting hitters with an OPS better than any of the Baltimore starters and fully 6/9 starting hitters had better OPS than the 2nd best Baltimore starting hitter. And Baltimore had 3 guys with OPS worse than Tapia, the Jays worst starting OPS. On the team pitching the Jays and Baltimore are basically identical with Baltimore 17th best ERA, Toronto 18th best at 3.93 and 3.94 respectively (Toronto has done better with starting pitching, Baltimore better with relievers).
lexomatic - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#420172) #
<br>really like the fun energy of the team, and it plays better when they are scoring runs like they did late in this game.

I'm going to be turned off if they bring in a hard ass manager and player. I also like the fun vibe. But... that doesn't have to go away with a personnel rearrangement. I wonder if there's a focus that Springer brings when he's in the lineup, and maybe besides shuffling things for a better fit, there's also that can be focused but not a harass about it.
We're getting into intangibles and immeasurables and wild speculation. This might also be the optimal personality fit. We won't know unless it happens though.And maybe not even then.
bpoz - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#420174) #
Having no "black holes" in the lineup is very good for scoring runs. Last year C was not as strong, Tellez was not getting it done. Maybe some more players. Grichuk hitting into double plays. But the offense was producing more last year because some players were having elite years. Only Kirk is having an elite year this year. But can Kirk do it next year.

This year they had Collins, Zimmer and Jansen hitting poorly. But Jansen's Hrs won games for us.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#420201) #
" Only Kirk is having an elite year this year."

I'd like to put a word in for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He's currently hitting .307 which is 8th in all of MLB. I know that isn't as valued a stat as it used to be, but he's also striking out at less than 20% meaning he puts the ball in play a lot. He's also walking about 13% of the time and had an excellent at bat yesterday, drawing a walk with the bases loaded. I guess the only knock against Lourdes is that he's not hitting for that much power with just 5 home runs and an OPS of .775.

Gurriel will be 29 in October and Teoscar Hernandez will be 30 the same month. Both will be entering the final year of their contract in 2023 so this winter might be a good time to trade one of them and acquire a strong left-handed outfield bat. I like both players but I'd trade Hernandez and try to extend Gurriel. Teoscar is a year older and Gurriel has the long, lean athletic body that tends to age well.
uglyone - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#420449) #
Baltimore at Toronto, August 15-17 | 303 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.