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When an irresistible force collides with an immovable object, it's a sight to see.

This is not that.


This is the other thing. The Blue Jays arrive in the Big Apple, trying to hold their heads high, but knowing the world is saying "these guys have played like crap for the last two weeks." The waiting Yankees reply "Hold my beer. We've played like crap for the last two months."

Around Da Box over these last couple of weeks, I have heard expressions of... concern? Disppointment? Even a little anger? You may heard them as well. You may even have let such sentiments escape your own lips. Well, multiply that by about ten million times and you might begin, just a little, to approximate the mood of the New York fanbase. Theirs, you must remember, is a group with a sense of entitlement far beyond any possible measurement; a conviction that winning is not just the main thing, not just the only thing, not just the morally correct thing; rather that anything other than winning is an anathema*, an obscenity, nothing less than a gross violation of the laws of God and Man, of Space and Time.

And winning means nothing  - nothing whatsoever - except a World Series victory. Nothing else will do. Everything else is a failure, everyone else is a loser.

So they're going to be in a mood this weekend. They've been howling all season long, like wolves deep into the night, that Josh Donaldson should be tossed into a small boat and cast out to sea. Last night's walk off grand slam, in the bottom of the ninth, with the team down by three runs - seriously, that's what he did - did that establish him as a True Yankee? Has that earned him his pinstripes? Are you kidding? It'll have bought him a little more rope, that's all. And then there's Frankie Montas, who has yet to have his True Yankee moment. The natives are already muttering that Cashman should have paid the price, any price, whatever the price, for Luis Castillo (who beat the Yankees in his first start for Seattle, and shut them out for eight innings in his second one.) Maybe Montas will have his moment on Thursday. (Let's hope not.) Maybe he won't, not then, not ever. Not everyone can play here. It's a different kind of city, a different kind of team, and a different kind of fan base. Other team's fans have Hopes and Dreams. This team's fans have Demands and Expectations. It's not an easy place to play. Some take to it like ducks to water. Some simply can't cope.

But what's happened to this team, anyway? The Yankees came out of June with a pretty nifty 56-21 record. They then won 5 of their next 7 to push their record to 61-23, and stretch their lead atop the division to 15 games. And since that high water mark, which came back on July 8, they have lost 22 of 34 games. That's .353 ball, that's the level of a 57-105 team. What on earth happened?

Did they stop hitting? Let's have a look. Since July 1:
NAME               GP   AB   R   H 2B 3B  HR RBI   TB  BB  SO SB  BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
                                                               
Aaron Judge    39  140  36  45  9  0  17  42  103  32  45  7  .321  .448  .750  1.198
Matt Carpenter    29   92  17  30  8  0   9  24   65  11  23  0  .326  .398  .707  1.105
DJ LeMahieu    37  144  30  45  5  0   5  12   64  26  22  2  .313  .418  .451   .869
Kyle Higashioka    16   43   6  12  1  0   3   8   22   4  11  0  .279  .340  .512   .852
Anthony Rizzo    40  108  21  23  8  0   7  17   48  14  26  0  .213  .303  .481   .785
Jose Trevino     35  109  11  30  5  0   4  12   44   2  23  1  .275  .288  .431   .719
Josh Donaldson     38  137  18  30  8  0   6  25   52  10  46  1  .219  .272  .416   .688
Gleyber Torres     37  156  20  39  8  0   4  17   54   9  40  1  .250  .291  .385   .676
Aaron Hicks     36  112  17  24  3  1   3  14   38  21  27  2  .214  .338  .330   .669
Andrew Benintendi  19   61   9  13  6  1   0   5   19  11  16  3  .213  .333  .328   .661
Giancarlo Stanton  17   64  10  10  1  0   5   9   26   5  23  0  .156  .217  .406   .624
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 39  139  13  36  5  0   1  18   44   7  18  4  .259  .295  .317   .611
Tim Locastro     11   21   2   3  0  0   1   2   6   0   2  3  .143  .143  .286   .429
Miguel Andujar     7   26   3   5  0  0   0   2    5   1   9  1  .192  .222  .192   .415
Marwin Gonzalez    19   31   1   2  0  0   0   2    2   4  11  2  .065  .171  .065   .236
Oswaldo Cabrera    1    4   0   0  0  0   0   0    0   0   2  0  .000  .000  .000   .000
Estevan Florial    1    2   0   0  0  0   0   0    0   0   0  1  .000  .000  .000   .000
Joey Gallo*   19   45   8   6  0  1  3   6   17  11  21  1  .133  .304  .356   .659
* Plays for someone else now

That looks adequate - after all, they get to write "Aaron Judge" in the lineup every day. Lucky them. I mean, my goodness, kids. Judge apparently just noticed that he wasn't leading the team in stealing bases and has since made it his mission to seize that one as well, from Kiner-Falefa, before the year is out. I'm running out of things to say about his season.  He is Ryan-Mountcastle-against-Toronto all the time. He is a mighty, mighty man. He has activated god-mode. He has become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds. Look on, you puny mortals, and tremble.

Anyway, the Yankees - who still lead the league in scoring runs - averaged 4.99 runs per game (384 runs in 77 games) in the first three months of the season, when they were abusing the entire American League. And since the first of July, they have averaged - wait for it - a ridiculous 5.39 runs per game (221 runs in 41 games). Scoring runs does not appear to be their problem.

Kind of makes you think their problems stem from preventing the other guys scoring runs on them. And yup - over the first three months, they allowed just 3.04 runs (234 in 77) per game. But since the beginning of July, it's been 4.27 (175 in 41) per game, which is what they call a significant increase. Who might be responsible? Let's have a look at that.

NAME               GP GS QS  W  L SV HLD  IP     H  ER  HR  BB   K   K/9  WHIP    ERA
                                                               
Gerrit Cole     9  9  6  3  3  0  0   57    48  24   9  12  73  11.5   9.5  3.79
Nestor Cortes     8  8  5  3  1  0  0   46    34  16   5  10  43   8.4   8.6  3.13
Jameson Taillon     8  8  4  2  2  0  0   43.2  34  25  11  13  39   8.0   9.7  5.15
Domingo German     6  6  1  1  2  0  0   28.1  31  14   4   9  23   7.3  12.7  4.45
Frankie Montas     2  2  0  0  0  0  0    8   10   8   1   5   6   6.8  16.9  9.00
Luis Severino     2  2  1  1  0  0  0    8    8   4   3   2   4   4.5  11.3  4.50
Wandy Peralta     18  0  0  0  2  0  1   17.2  15   6   1   6  16   8.2  10.7  3.06
Aroldis Chapman    18  0  0  2  1  0  1   16.1   8   9   2  10  20  11.0   9.9  4.96
Albert Abreu     16  0  0  1  2  0  1   18.2  20   6   1   3  19   9.2  11.1  2.89
Clay Holmes     14  0  0  1  3  3  0   12.1  12  11   1  11  13   9.5  16.8  8.03
Jonathan Loaisiga  13  0  0  0  1  0  0   10.1  11   5   0   4   6   5.2  13.1  4.35
Lucas Luetge     11  0  0  1  2  1  0   16.2  16   4   2   5  19  10.3  11.3  2.16
Lou Trivino     9  0  0  0  1  0  0    5.2   6   1   0   4   5   7.9  15.9  1.59
Ron Marinaccio     8  0  0  0  0  0  1   10    3   1   1   4  11   9.9   6.3  0.90
Scott Effross     7  0  0  0  0  1  2    7.1   6   4   1   2   7   8.6   9.8  4.91
Clarke Schmidt     2  0  0  0  0  2  0    6    4   0   0   3   8  12.0  10.5  0.00
Ryan Weber    2  0  0  0  0  1  0    4    1   0   0   1   1   2.3   4.5  0.00
Miguel Castro     2  0  0  1  0  0  0    1.1   3   2   0   1   3  20.3  27.0 13.50
Shane Greene     1  0  0  0  0  0  0    1    1   2   1   1   1   9.0  18.0 18.00
Jordan Montgomery*  6  6  2  0  2  0  0   29.1  30  16   6   9  33  10.1  12.0  4.91
Michael King**   8  0  0  1  2  0  4    9.1   7   2   0   3  10   9.6   9.6  1.93
JP Sears*    3  0  0  0  0  0  0    9.1   6   5   1   1   7   6.8   6.8  4.82
* Plays for someone else now
** Out for the season

Well, Taillon certainly hasn't been all that great lately and none of the relievers have exactly distinguished themselves. But even so, this doesn't seem to add up, does it? Let's review. For three months, the Yankees scored more runs than everybody else in the league while allowing fewer runs than everybody else in the league. This is a pretty reliable route to success. It's also being followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have enlarged on it somewhat by scoring more and allowing less than every other team in the majors. And for three months, the Yankees blew away the rest of the AL.

Since July 1, they've continued to score more runs than everybody else in the league. They've been allowing the opposition to score something close to an average amount - the league average is 4.3 runs per game, the Yankees have allowed 4.24 these last six weeks. But this has often been a route to success as well. It's certainly not as reliable as the road they had taken before.  But if you score more runs than everyone else, you can get away with allowing just a little bit better than the league average. The Blue Jays did it in 2015 (and in 1993.) But for the 2022 Yankees, scoring 221 and allowing 175 has resulted in a 17-24 stretch, which seems a little counter-intuitive. Well, since July 1 they have gone 5-11 in one-run games, the Great Equalizer (they had gone 17-7 over the first three months.)  And they have been known to pile on the runs long after there's any real need to kick the dead horse any longer - they beat Pittsburgh by 16 runs and posted consecutive victories over the Red Sox by margins of 13 runs and 11 runs (they must have enjoyed that!)  They've been carrying on like that all season, of course - earlier on, they beat the Cubs by 18, the Tigers by 13, and the Royals by 10.

Tis a puzzlement!

The Yankees do not have a young team - they have the oldest gang of hitters in the AL, in fact - and as sure as eggs is eggs, old players will get hurt. Giancarlo Stanton is an enormous 32 year old human with an extensive history of visiting the Disabled List. He's been back for another call since late July, with tendinitis in his left Achilles. The Bombers hope he can begin a rehab assignment this weekend. D.J. LeMahieu has a better health history than Stanton, but he's 33 years old, and this is when it begins to happen. He has been day-to-day all week with a sore toe. Harrison Bader, acquired at the deadline to improve their outfield defense, was never expected to play until September.

And then there's Matt Carpenter. As I've mentioned many times, the Yankees have a longstanding arrangement with the Prince of Darkness. It was surely only through the intercession of the Father of Lies that they were able to have the Enormous Fork protruding from Matt Carpenter's back surgically removed. Carpenter spent the next couple of months strutting around the Bronx like he was Babe Ruth or something, with an OPS of 1.138, with 15 HRs in 47 games. But these deals always have an expiry date, and Carpenter's expired ten days ago when he fouled a pitch off his foot and broke one of those old bones.We won't be seeing him anytime soon.

And that's just the hitters. The Yankees bullpen has resembled a MASH unit for some time now. Clay Holmes, who had supplanted Aroldis Chapman as the closer, has been having back issues for about a month now. Holmes allowed just 2 runs - that's two - in his first 38 appearances. In his 11 outings since, he's allowed 11 runs, posted a 10.24 ERA, and finally gone on the IL. Where he has lots of company. Zack Britton's been there all season, of course. Chad Green blew out his elbow in May and had Tommy John surgery. Michael King broke his elbow in July, has since had surgery, and will be back next year. Miguel Castro's shoulder began bothering him around the same time. The rotation is down a man as well, with Luis Severino out with a lat strain. The egregious Domingo German has been the fifth starter.

Well, enough of those guys. I think I'd like to revisit, reconsider, and relitigate an idea I expressed in the Baltimore thread. You will recollect that I suggested Atkins was following the same strategy at the deadline that Anthopoulos followed in 2014 (I have long found it a prudent policy that if you bring up anything debatable that Atkins does, you had best have handy an instance of Anthopoulos doing the exact same thing.) Having spent these last few days thinking about it and talking about it with you lot - I don't think that's quite true. In 2014, Anthopoulos said "pass" - and rightly so. It wasn't their year, it wasn't going to be their year. I don't think Atkins is anywhere near as down on this year's team - he fired his manager, after all, which does suggest he had expectations that weren't being met, that he thought could be met. He made some upgrades to an area that had been a problem. But now I'm thinking that while he likes this team more than Anthopoulos liked the 2014 team - Atkins doesn't like this team and the year they're having enough to go any further than that, to invest any more on it  than he did. (Or maybe it's just that Luis Castillo was the only big trade target that really made sense to him, and the Jays simply didn't match up well as a trading partner for the Reds. The Jays best trading piece is a catcher, which is not what the Reds need.)

Well, who's going to be Pitching?

Thu 18 Aug - Berrios (8-5, 5.61) vs Montas (4-9, 3.59)
Fri 19 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.16) vs Taillon (11-3, 3.95)
Sat 20 Aug - White (1-3, 3.72) vs Cole (9-5, 3.30)
Sun 21 Aug - Manoah (12-6, 2.71) vs Cortes (9-4, 2.74)

* I am using "anathema" in its technical sense, as a formal curse by a council of the Church. Excommunication, banishment, damnation - these are the kinds of things Yankees fans typically call for when they are displeased.


Toronto at New York, August 18-21 | 230 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#420170) #
Should be a great series.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#420173) #
And what precisely are Yankee fans wishing on Aroldis Chapman?  I'm thinking of a scene from Pulp Fiction- an eye for an eye and all that.

Here are the expected statistics per Statcast of every qualified Yankee pitcher.  Out of Oakland, Montas will probably end up as the worst pitcher on the club, but you only have to be mediocre to qualify as that.  I've never seen all pink or anything close to that for a pitching staff.  However Chapman, Loaisiga, and Castro are all below average, and with King out and Holmes struggling, the modus operandi should be clear.  Get into the bullpen by all means necessary- work the count, don't give away outs, stay out of the DP...
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#420175) #
Time to make a statement.
92-93 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#420188) #
Donaldson's walk-off grand slam last night was only the 3rd one in Yankees history with the team trailing by 3 runs. The other 2 hitters were Jason Giambi and Babe Ruth.

The Yankees magic doesn't work for everyone. Joey Gallo is off to a nice start for the Dodgers with 3HR in 26PA. Vernon Wells got off to a great start there before absolutely falling apart and getting released.

New York made a bit of a head-scratcher trade, moving Montgomery for an injured Bader at the deadline. It's not like they are loaded with SP considering German is in the rotation and Cortes, like Manoah, is blowing by his career high in innings. They must really value Bader's defense and are done with Hicks, who has 9 double plays and 5 doubles this season.

The most important move this offseason for the Jays will be finding a good CF that moves Springer into a corner spot moving forward. They don't necessarily have to trade Gurriel or Hernandez to open up that spot either, as there are always plenty of ABs to go around without a true DH. The roster will be much better if Tapia is replaced with a CF.
Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#420191) #
And what precisely are Yankee fans wishing on Aroldis Chapman?

We can't print that here. Think of the children!
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#420193) #
Coincidentally, just yesterday I was thinking about May 26th, 2015, when Donaldson hit a come-from-behind walk-off 3-run homer against the White Sox. Perhaps he has now completed the career walk-off home run cycle?

That was the first moment during the 2015 season that felt different, almost like a turning point for the franchise. This weekend could be a perfect venue for something similar in 2022.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#420195) #
We can't print that here. Think of the children!

The Bronx Tale updated for 2030
Children: Did the fans really go all medieval on the bad man's ass after all that yelling?
Parent: No, no.  It was an empty threat.  His boss just sent him to Scranton.
Children: Oh, that's terrible.
Parent: You should have seen what the fans did to the really bad man when he came back to New York.
Children: Who was the really bad man?
Parent: You wouldn't know him, but he was once President of the United States. 
85bluejay - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#420197) #
BTW, I noticed how the complaint against John Tory was neatly side-stepped as if there was any doubt - nothing will stand in the way of a 3rd term.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#420202) #
It is a weird year, but fun. I mentioned schedules left, lets check how tough those schedules are for the Jays/Rays/O's - 2 of whom will likely get playoff slots.

Jays: NYY (7), Boston (6), Tampa (8), Baltimore (10), LAA (3), Cubs (3), Pirates (3), Texas (3), Philly (2).
500+: 27, sub 500: 12, 500 on the nose 6 (Boston)

Rays: NYY (6), Boston (9), Jays (8), KC (4), LAA (4), Miami (2), Texas (3), Houston (6), Cleveland (3)
500+: 23, sub 500: 13, 500: 9

Baltimore: NYY (3), Boston (10), Jays (10), Cubs (1), White Sox (3), Houston (7), Cleveland (3), Oakland (3), Washington (2), Detroit (3)
500+: 26, sub 500: 9, 500: 10

So the Jays have the most against 500+ teams thanks to Baltimore suddenly becoming good. The Rays have the most sub 500 games, while Baltimore has the most against a 500 team (Boston). Obviously the 500 measure is not going to be the best measure as Boston could be on either side of that after their next game, but in the end these 3 have their own fates in their hands really - with the Jays having 10 against Baltimore, the Rays vs Jays being 8 games. I'd say the Jays have the most control over their own fate given that. The Rays & O's don't play each other again until the playoffs potentially (10-9 in favor of the Rays).

While I'd prefer the Jays being 10 games ahead of everyone ala the Yankees, this will result in a lot of tense games and debates over every last choice made by Schneider and crew. The first big one is Kikuchi to the pen and going with White & Stripling at the back end of the rotation. The other big one is the 2B/CF shuffles - a mix/match of Espinal/Biggio/Merryfield/JBJ/Tapia - which 2 of those 5 get in each day, DH - do you put Kirk there, give Vlad or Springer a semi-day off? When do you rest each of the regulars? Who subs? Biggio seems to be the Vlad sub, Espinal the Bo sub and the Chapman sub (only Vlad has any time at 3B other than Espinal & Chapman).

The pen is a non-stop challenge of course, Romano closing, Garcia seems to be the '#1 pressure pre-9th' guy, Pop & Bass each have some trust already, Cimber is the jack of all trades, Phelps gets early pressure or late lead but low pressure, Richards is there in case of desperation.
Michael - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#420204) #
Just doing over/under 500 doesn't properly account for the number of games against really good or really bad opponents (also there are 9 games Tampa-Jays, not 8, they each have 46 games left compared to 45 for Baltimore). The weighted average opponent for these three teams show Baltimore has the easiest remaining schedule, Tampa the hardest remaining schedule, from these three teams.

Average Opponent Strength (weighted by number of games against opponent):
Tampa: 0.5220
Toronto: 0.5111
Baltimore: 0.4971

If you imagine that the true talent of the teams is what their current record is (Tampa and Toronto at 0.534 true talent and Baltimore at 0.521 true talent) then the difference in opponent strength means you'd think there would be about half a win in favor of Toronto over Tampa, and about the same number of wins with Baltimore and Tampa (but 1 fewer game for Baltimore to get the same number of wins as Tampa, so Baltimore will have roughly half a less win than Toronto but also half a less loss than Toronto). That is you'd expect:

Tampa to win about 23.55 / 46
Baltimore to win about 23.57 / 45
Toronto to win about 24.05 / 46

Obviously well within the margin of errors on this sort of thing, and I didn't take home/away into consideration at all which should penalize the Jays and reward Baltimore beyond this (Jays have 6 more road games to play than home games; Tampa have 2 more home games to play than road games; Baltimore have 9 more home games to play than road games).

So if Baltimore really is as good as their wins/losses to date, they do have a good chance to make it. I'm still a skeptic, but they do have some favorable settings.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#420206) #
"That was the first moment during the 2015 season that felt different, almost like a turning point for the franchise. This weekend could be a perfect venue for something similar in 2022."

Apropos of the Jays visiting Yankee Stadium this weekend, and of this comment, I was thinking today about that 2015 season and turning points of the franchise.

That walk off was right around the time Donaldson went into MVP mode, and backed up the famous "this isn't the try league" comments. They did have an 11 game winning streak in June, but that was still before all the trades.

For me the Kansas City series at home right after the deadline was the turning point. The crowds not only were larger, but the buzz in the stadium was just so palpable.
There were also two series in New York where they just pummeled the Yankees, where I was pinching myself (they also made their first appearance on Fox's Saturday game of the week. Which was another surreal moment, since I think the last time I remember they were, it was the final weekend of the 2000 season against Cleveland). At at any rate, it never gets old talking about seven years ago at this time.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#420209) #
Oops, good catch Michael - reading off the screen it is easy to add one extra or miss one.

Another way to look at it is playoff odds from a site that is neutral (unlike us) - FanGraphs qualifies.
  • Jays: 83.9%, 5.6% of WS champs
  • Rays: 55.7%, 2.0% of WS champs
  • O's: 3.7%, 0.0% of WS champs
  • Red Sox: 15.9%, 0.4% of WS champs
  • Mariners: 90.8%, 3.4% of WS champs
  • Guardians: 51.9%, 1.0% of WS champs
  • Twins: 49.1%, 1.1% of WS champs
  • White Sox: 48.9%, 1.3% of WS champs
  • -----and the 2 uber teams-----
  • Yankees: 99.9%, 9.5% of WS champs
  • Houston: 100%, 15.8% of WS champs
Interesting that the Jays are the best shot of WS champions outside of the big 2. Mariners high as well. Obviously the system doesn't like the O's much with that 0% WS chance. FYI: Mets & Dodgers are also at 100%, Atlanta at 99.7%, St Louis at 85.2%. So 4 NL teams and 3 AL teams have better odds than the Jays at making the playoffs right now. Not bad. WS winner odds puts Dodgers #1 18.2%, Mets 16.8%, Astros 15.8%, Atlanta 10.7%, Yankees 9.5%, Jays 5.6%, Padres 5.3%. Not bad, better than a 1 in 20 odds. Not ideal, but given the slump lately I'll take it.

This despite Zimmer being lost on waivers - Phillies claimed him so the Jays don't owe him a penny from now on. Nice for the Jays bean counters.
Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#420211) #
Phillies claimed [Zimmer] so the Jays don't owe him a penny from now on. Nice for the Jays bean counters.

I suspect that 300K doesn't go as far as it used to in the baseball world. He's a useful pickup for the Phillies, a team with truly dreadful outfield defense. I'd have much preferred keeping him to adding Bradley, but hey, look over there! - it's a ship, sailing.
Nigel - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#420212) #
There's no doubt that the Yankees have made some sort of deal with the Devil but, you know, you have to give them some credit, they're prepared to visit Hades to get stuff done. They are taking risks on has beens when others wouldn't. I give them some marks for creativity. I'd like to see the Jays try this a bit more. For example, rather than adding a redundant player like Merrifield how about taking a flyer on a Joey Gallo? Yes Gallo costs more and was a flop in NY but he was a 4 WAR player last year. He'd have a role with the Jays that wasn't already filled by two other players (and better). Gallo may well be broken and there's a good chance it wouldn't work out but something like that, if it works, can actually move the needle. No risk, no reward.
Glevin - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#420213) #
"I'd have much preferred keeping him to adding Bradley, but hey, look over there! - it's a ship, sailing."

I preferred Zimmer too but mostly because the Jays were never tempted to start him. It's a pretty marginal difference though.
Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#420214) #
mostly because the Jays were never tempted to start him

Yup, that was the best reason. Bradley gets two starts and makes two terrible throws in the first game (one because it was dumb, the other was just bad) and an actual error in the second game. While hitting like a Bradley.
92-93 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#420215) #
Jansen doesn't have an XBH since the historic night at Fenway, but it's still surprising to see Kirk making his 5th start in the last 8 games behind the dish. Does the team think he's the better defender?

Merrifield is 8/16 vs. Montas, so he gets the start in CF tonight.

In this joke stadium Berrios will need to pound the zone on his arm-side. Hopefully it's the Jays that hit the silly Yankee Stadium specials to RF.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#420216) #
Just win at least three and get out of town.

The O’s and White Sox lost today, so that’s good.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#420218) #
That was a disappointing T1 for the Jays. Leadoff double for Springer and no runs scored, with VGJ and Kirk watching hittable fastballs go by.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#420219) #
Summer of George.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#420220) #
RF porch payback!
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#420221) #
Do it boys. Turn the season around right now.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#420222) #
That has to feel good for Vladdy.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#420223) #
That is hitting good pitching. Now if he can bring a bit of that into the 789 innings. Great for Vlad.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#420224) #
Embarrassing start to B3: walk, HBP, infield hit and error.

So unnecessary.
krose - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#420225) #
Just not smart.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#420226) #
For me, Berrios was trying to be too fine to Trevino (the Yankees #8 hitter). 2-2 count, 5-0 lead, throw a strike. Walking him got the ball rolling for New York.

Good job to limit the damage in the end, though.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#420227) #
I am still scared to cheer.

keep it going boys.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#420229) #
Big inning for Berrios here. If he can shut down the middle of the order, he’ll get the bottom of the order in the 7th (if Schneider lets him).
Nigel - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#420230) #
Berrios’ crazy season continues. He looks like his old self again tonight. I suppose that’s the long term positive. That guy’s still in there somewhere. He’s not toasty.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#420231) #
really no need to pull Berrios there.

but I guess it's nice to put Bass in a kinda big spot.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#420232) #
Not feeling bad about missing out on post-PED, post-shoulder issue Montas at the trade deadline.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#420233) #
it's 9-2 and all but maybe yankee stadium not the place to let Kikuci work out his jitters.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#420234) #
He did a great job after a bit of shakiness to start the inning. I like the move. He had some success against New York earlier this season. Good confidence-builder.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#420235) #
Good for him - i'd bring him back out for another inning and try to save another arm.
Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#420236) #
Nah. Let him feel good about his night. And if Romano doesn't get into this game, he'll have gone almost a week without getting into a game.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#420237) #
we're gonna need romano in real spots this series i think. one more day of rest won't hurt.
Magpie - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#420238) #
He's pitched once in eleven days. He's definitely rested.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#420240) #
Good game in the end. Scary with Berrios when he ran into trouble in the bottom of the 3rd, but I love how the other players quickly came to the mound to help calm him down - they have seen this song and dance enough and know that if Berrios can get his head straight the damage can be minimized and it was. Bass did his job (the one Phelps was slotted for before - mid-game, mid-inning pressure), Kikuchi got me scared but quickly settled down, Romano was himself (10 pitches, 9 strikes). Springer going 5-5 is sweet! Keep that up and he can stay at DH with rotating CF'ers the rest of the year.

Nice to see the Yankees having issues in CF - Florial is 0 for 16 this season and the other options are Judge or no-hit Hicks. Benintendi before his 0-4 was hitting 213/329/344 as a Yankee, and Montas has a 9.00 ERA over 3 starts as a Yankee (14 IP). So much for 'winning the deadline'. The Jays guys gained Pop (5 2/3 IP 1 ER), Bass (7 1/3 IP 1 R), White (9 1/3 IP 4 R) have been solid - total of 22 1/3 IP 6 R. JBJ is exactly what we expected (all D, some speed, no O), Merryfield not much at 229/270/229 but still could be a useful part even if just a PR (super elite speed) and sometimes starter at 2B/CF. I see losing Zimmer and Collins as addition by subtraction as both had VERY limited roles (I suspect Collins will be back for September to allow more running for Kirk/Jansen - what possible role could any other batter have on the team?).
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#420241) #
Now that was a perfect night. Almost five hours of music outdoors courtesy of Kathleen Edwards, Bahamas and Wilco, while checking in between the acts on a 9-2 Blue Jay win in Yankee Stadium.
scottt - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 06:15 AM EDT (#420242) #
Obviously, Kirk is the better hitter, but he's also the better framer.
Jansen has a tendency to stab at pitches whereas Kirk catches everything smoothly.

bpoz - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#420243) #
The mouth guard Berrios is wearing is for the purpose of not tipping his pitches. Hope he can get his pitching righted.

Hitting is contagious.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#420246) #
Little League World Series at Williamsport, Pennsylvania:

Today, 5 PM.
Canada vs. Japan

Winner plays Mexico. (Monday, 5 PM.)
scottt - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#420248) #
Yankees were playing Cabrera at shortstop.
He's their 14th prospect according to pipeline.
He added some power recently by bulking up and his range has suffered.
Fangraphs described him as a "shift assisted second baseman" "without the arm to play on the left side".
Their #3 is the real SS at AAA but he hasn't shown the power and hits from the right side.

I find it a bit curious that suddenly they value bat over glove at such an important position.

92-93 - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#420253) #
Let's hope the Yankees don't decide to value both bat and glove with Turner, Correa, Boegarts, and Swanson likely becoming free agents this winter.
mathesond - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#420261) #
Tonight's game is on Apple TV. Although had planned to stream Apple TV tonight, it's more likely that my wife and I will be catching up on Loot instead.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#420262) #
Springer gets the day off and Kirk is the DH.  Merrifield in center and Biggio at second tonight.  It would be a good day for Biggio to try to beat the shift.  Taillon throws a lot of off-speed stuff and you wouldn't think he's going to give Biggio much inside. 
dalimon5 - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#420264) #
The colours of this broadcast are atrocious. It looks like they’re playing in a very dimly lit stadium.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#420266) #
Very good start by the team in this one. It would be nice to add to the lead so that it isn’t a stressful game for the bullpen in the later innings. Better to save Romano for games three and four if needed.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#420271) #
Fantastic outing by Gausman so far.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#420273) #
You be the manager: does Gausman pitch the 8th for the Jays?
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#420274) #
Update: looks like he’s done for the night.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#420276) #
I would have left him in.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#420277) #
I think I would prefer Bass over Garcia in this situation. I guess Garcia is up because 34-year-old Bass pitched (briefly) last night.
Nigel - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#420278) #
Kirk looks like he has his groove back.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#420279) #
Credit to Yimi, he did a good job.
Nigel - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#420281) #
They almost certainly won’t but I’d use someone other than Romano for the 9th. He’s burnt for tomorrow if he pitches tonight and this is a three run lead I’d risk with someone else.
Dr. Zarco - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#420282) #
Aroldis may make the decision a whole lot easier. So odd how he’s completely lost the zone.
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#420283) #
Romano in back to back non save situations...
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#420284) #
Jansen can’t be doing that in that situation. Free pass to Judge.
Nigel - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#420285) #
Yeah. Hard no to this bullpen management.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#420286) #
I don’t mind Schneider using Romano here. Thanks to Berrios and Gausman, the bullpen will be rested tomorrow and the manager will have good options should the game be close in the late innings. The Yankees had the heart of the order up and this was a “step on their neck” situation to guarantee at least a series split.
uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#420287) #
Love the win streak and the potential statement series here.

Still don't like the pitcher management at all tho.
uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#420288) #
Magpie - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#420289) #
Meanwhile... goofy game in Baltimore (15-10 last time I checked)... Tampa Bay loses to KC... Brad Zimmer with a double and a run scored...

And the Yankees are retiring Paul O'Neill's number? On the franchise leaderboard, he's 20th in homers, 24th in hits, 36th in WAR. He did hit .303 as a Yankee, but even with the zillion numbers they've already retired... there were more likely guys, no?

It turns out that most of the more likely guys already have their numbers retired, but for someone else. Bobby Murcer and Earle Combs wore #1 (Billy Martin), Roy White and Joe Gordon wore 6 (Joe Torre), Tommy Henrich wore 7 (Mickey Mantle), Graig Nettles wore 9 (Roger Maris), Red Ruffing wore 15 (Thurman Munson.)

I would think Allie Reynolds (22) and Lefty Gomez (11) are more deserving than O'Neill. But O'Neill's actually alive, I guess. Still, there is Willie Randolph (30), and you could honour the late Mel Stottlemyre, who wore that too, at the same time.
John Northey - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#420290) #
I wasn't a fan of using Romero tonight but certainly get why he was used - you guarantee a split thanks to that. Tomorrow looks like a tough one for the Jays with our #5 guy going (White) vs their #1 (Cole). One could argue Cole is their #2 with Cortes and his 142 ERA+ the #1 (vs Cole's 117) but Cole was 2nd for Cy last year and has been top 5 for 4 years in a row and is solid again this year. Plus Cortes goes Sunday probably vs our #1 Manoah. So yeah, you want to lock down today's win and ensure a split.

Jays now 1/2 a game behind Seattle depending on their game (they are winning 6-2 vs Oakland). 1 game up on Tampa, 1 1/2 on Minnesota, 2 1/2 on Baltimore. Quite the race. 8 back of the Yankees now - so one never knows what could happen...
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#420291) #
Day game / night game differential:

2021: Day 43-19 / night 48-52
2022: Day 26-20 / night 38-34
lexomatic - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#420292) #
<br>have we looked at wildcard schedules yet?
Saw something on fangraphs fantasy that suggests Seattle has an advantage there assuming baseball gods don't interfere
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#420296) #
I’m not sure why you wouldn’t get Biggio into today’s game somewhere in the lineup. He’s on a short list of Jays who have had some success against Cole. The JBJ experience continues, unfortunately.
hypobole - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#420297) #
Here's Tankathon SOS.

Seattle has the easiest schedule of any team in the majors. The Yankees and then the Jays have the easiest in the AL East. AL Central teams all have fairly soft schedules.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#420300) #
I saw yesterday's pitching management as a continuation of a bad cycle, prioritizing meaningless individual statistics (pitcher wins, saves) over team success.

It starts with the 28-5 blowout in Boston on July 22.  Gausman started, and the Blue Jays scored in bunches leading 13-0 after 3 and 1/2 innings. Gausman threw 28 pitches in the bottom of the 4th surrendering 3 runs, and had thrown 85 pitches at that point.  The Blue Jays then put up an 11 spot in the top of the 5th to lead 24-3.  They sent him out for the bottom of the 5th and he threw a further 23 pitches for a total of 108 to get the meaningless pitcher win.

Forward to yesterday's game.  Romano had thrown an inning the day before yesterday in a blowout because he need the work.  Yimi Garcia had not thrown.  Gausman throws 7 shutout innings on 86 pitches, culminating in a 6 pitch 7th inning, and the Blue Jays led 3-0. The Yankees have 8-9-1 coming up in the 8th inning. At this point, Schneider commits himself to Garcia for the 8th inning, with a plan to go to Romano in the 9th unless the Blue Jays score in the top of the 8th inning or perhaps very quickly in the top of the 9th (he will have Romano warming for the 9th in the top of the 9th).  Garcia mows them down in the bottom of the eighth.  The Blue Jays have runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out in the top of the ninth, and by this point, Romano is committed to entering the game (a double play would end the inning).  A sac fly drives in the 4th run and Romano comes in seal a 4-0 win. 

Gausman was in better shape to throw the 8th inning, and it was more important that he do so, last night as compared with the 5th inning in the July 22 game.  He was throwing very, very well, had not been sitting for 1/2 an hour and they did need a good 8th inning because of the score.  Had he thrown the 8th, the Jays had 3 possible options- maybe let Gausman go for the complete game if he gets through the 8th quickly (and perhaps if they add on a run or three it becomes easier to do that), go to Garcia for the 9th and if worse comes to worse, have Romano in reserve. 

The notion that you absolutely must have your ace ready to protect a 3 run (or possibly larger) lead on the day after he has pitched makes no sense.  It treats the description of what is important as identical to the save definition.  That's nonsense.  In fairness, Schneider has quite properly brought in Romano in key situations in the 8th inning a number of times.  The corollary to that decision ought to be to protect him from unnecessary back-to-back work. 

The result is that Romano is not likely available for today's game.  That's a shame.  It conveys to the team that you don't think that the game is winnable with a White-Cole pitching matchup.  I don't buy it, and it's a bad message.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#420301) #
Springer out of the lineup 2 days running.  That's not good.  He's 4-9 with 2 doubles against Cole, so that's not it.  Maybe they wanted Jansen catching White and Kirk himself is 3-8 with a homer against Cole so he's DHing.  I guess Springer isn't ready to play centerfield. 
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#420302) #
I can't say that I agree with that view about yesterday's pitching management. I think the Jays are taking the long view with their starting pitchers. They want them to be healthy and effective deep into October. Limiting Gausman to 86 pitches, instead of having him throw 100+ pitches, makes sense from that point of view, in circumstances where Schneider had a rested bullpen.

I don't think using Romano in a 4-0 game in Yankee Stadium, with Judge / Rizzo / Donaldson coming up, is a necessarily a bad decision. And I don't think it sends the message that Schneider thinks the team is unlikely to win against Cole today. Rather, I think it reflects the urgency of all games at this point in the season. Schneider wanted to forcefully secure the win and deal with Saturday's game on Saturday. He has an array of effective high-leverage arms for innings 6-9 today, including Bass, Pop, Cimber, Phelps, and (if need be) Garcia. The unavailability of Romano today doesn't significantly move the needle on W-L probability.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#420303) #
yesterday's pitching management

I saw it more as an expression of the modern manager's preference to head trouble off the pass rather than react when it shows up at your door. Instead of bringing in a reliever when people get on base, you bring him in with a clean inning. If just one man had reached in the bottom of the eighth, you'd have Gausman at close to 100 pitches looking at Aaron Judge for the fourth time in the evening. Which is trouble at your door.
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#420304) #
As I said last night, I thought it was poor bullpen management. I agree that it’s partly the product of stats management. The way I look at the Jays pen usage is this - they are long on decent middle leverage relievers and short on high leverage relievers. Last night was the perfect night to lean on your middle leverage guys. Romano is burnt for today. Schneider is actually lucky that Garcia wasn’t forced to throw more pitches or he would have burnt his two best relievers in a game with a 3/4 run lead. This team has had issues of inefficient resource management all year (not getting both Cs in the lineup effectively, giving regulars odd days off (often stacking those days together), bringing redundant players on board, etc). None of these are huge errors individually but they are ones where they are throwing nickels off the boat for no reason. Those add up over time.
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#420305) #
Greenfrog - I just don’t see that list of guys available today as who you want to lean on trying to protect a one run lead today. I’d rather have Romano and Garcia personally.
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#420306) #
Put another way, if you’re comfortable with them being the plan today why wouldn’t you be comfortable with them last night with a 3/4 run lead?
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#420307) #
But Romano really needed that work with a 9-2 lead!
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#420308) #
I guess Springer isn't ready to play centerfield.

He's definitely not ready. They said yesterday that he's building up his throwing arm, but he's only up to about 120 feet.

I think sometimes you just got to go out and win the game in front of you. Sure, you can make a plan - I'm going to save Romano for Save situations, or for high leverage in close games... and the next thing you know, he's pitched once in eleven days. The game is not going to co-operate with you and your plans.
electric carrot - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#420309) #
Wait, no scorn about Tapia leading off? We're getting soft.

I personally love the idea of base clogger A. Kirk leading off (even after Springer gets back.)
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#420310) #
no scorn about Tapia leading off? We're getting soft.

Indeed we are. Is it Gerrit Cole? no one expects anything from anyone else, either?

I would expect Bichette and Chapman to be pretty helpless - and they are! And so is Gurriel. Biggio's only 3-15, but there are 2 HRs. Kirk and Springer have done OK but in less than 10 ABs.

The guy who has hit him is Guerrero.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#420311) #
You want scorn? Schneider deserves it.  These are not the 60s- Jimi Hendrix is not releasing world-changing music.  And so, if we're not getting the advantages, please spare us the return of the 1960s leadoff hitter who was fast and made contact, but made outs aplenty. 
SK in NJ - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#420312) #
Tapia leading off and JBJ starting in CF when the Jays could actually climb back into the AL East race with 2 more wins this weekend against a struggling team is an odd decision. I'm guessing Springer is still hurt, but not sure they needed both Tapia and Bradley Jr. in the lineup, and certainly not Tapia hitting 1st.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#420313) #
I hope they did the concussion protocol there on Cabrera.  That was a pretty good head shake (OK, acceleration-deceleration)
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#420314) #
Nigel, why wouldn't you include Bass in that group of trusted high-leverage relievers? He's been great this year. Since July 1, he has a 0.86 ERA and opponents are hitting .167/.208/.208 against him over that span. Personally, I think Garcia is good but not completely reliable. He goes through stretches where he can't quite put hitters away.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#420315) #
Merrifield is fast, makes more contact than Tapia, and is 5/15 vs. Cole. It's a bizarre lineup today.

Hopefully the bad bullpen management doesn't cost them today's game.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#420316) #
White's fielding position isn't much better than Pop's.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#420317) #
White stuff looks excellent today, he's just getting BABIPed.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#420318) #
3ip and twice through the top of their order with only 1r is already a success. Hopefully he can take care of the bottom of their order quickly and then it's all up to some smart pitcher management to keep it close the rest of the way. Unfortunately the bullpen is shorthanded for no good reason but it's up to the manager to save himself from that choice.

Hopefully the bats do enough to make any of that matter, of course.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#420319) #
People seem awfully confident in their conclusions about bullpen use. I imagine some of those same people were thrilled when Schneider brought Manoah out to pitch the sixth on Tuesday against the O's. Letting the SP go deep into the game! Oops.
mathesond - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#420320) #
Fan, like athletes, need to have short memories.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#420321) #
Because relievers never give up runs when they come in.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#420322) #
Manoah gave up 4 crushed balls in the 5th inning that day but yes, bringing him back out to start the 6th inning of a 2-2 game at 83 pitches was still a no-brainer.

And defending the usage of Gausman in a gigantic lead fresh off the All-Star break while simultaneously saying the Jays are taking the long view for their pitchers when they have a rested bullpen so he couldn't pitch the 8th last night is hilarious.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#420323) #
hope that 87mph meatball to the #8 hitter doesn't burn him cuz he's pitching very well otherwise.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#420324) #
another hanging slider in the 80s and another hit.

don't think those were supposed to catch any of the zone.

uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#420325) #
Judge up 1st in the 5th. Probably spells the end for White even though i'd be tempted to keep him in anyways.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#420326) #
Excellent start from White. He was some platinum-glove D from Chapman away from going deep in this game. Jays will empty the bullpen now with Monday off.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#420327) #
Cole doesn't need that kind of help, ump.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#420328) #
This ump has called at least 3 fastballs strikes that were clearly off the plate and outside against Bichette, Guerrero, and Chapman. It's hard enough to hit Cole without the expanded zone.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#420329) #
92-93, if you read my post, I wasn’t defending Schneider’s use of Gausman in the blowout game. I was defending his use of Gausman in last night’s game. No reason why the team can’t modify its pitcher usage over the course of the season after watching its SPs start to show signs of fatigue at times. Just because you made one questionable decision in the past doesn’t mean you have to double down on it several weeks later.

Also, I’m not sure if you noticed, but Gausman’s velo was down last night — another reason to be cautious with him.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#420330) #
stupid cameraman.
electric carrot - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#420331) #
i pinch hit biggio here.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#420332) #
Indeed. Not using Biggio here is a big mistake. Make us foolish, Jackie.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420333) #
It works again!
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420334) #
JACKIE BRADLEY JUNIOR, BABY
lexomatic - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420335) #
For once I turn on the game and good thigns happen (Espinal's hit, walk, hit... runs).
electric carrot - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420336) #
me=foolish
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420337) #
I’m impressed by White. No one pitch is great but he knows how to pitch.

You’re right greenfrog Bass has been good. I’m skeptical of it continuing but there’s no debating that he’s been excellent.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#420338) #
love me some Ramiel!

I do believe the tide may have turned for these blue jays.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#420339) #
Tapia even looked good whiffing on that 98mph fastball right down the middle. If he caught up it would have been demolished with that swing.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#420340) #
i thought he was out for sure but he's safe, baby.

yeah, all the little things going the jays way all of a sudden.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#420341) #
That's a stunning overturned call based on Sportsnet's footage.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#420342) #
eh looked pretty clear to me tbh.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#420343) #
Alejandro i couldn't possibly love a baseball player more than you.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#420344) #
Shulman and Tabler missed that Luis Rivera tried to hold Vladdy.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#420345) #
The team doesn’t seem too despondent about Romano being used last night.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#420346) #
I didn't like the Stripling trade and I didn't like the White trade, and now I am eating a major crow for supper with feathers and all.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#420347) #
God help me i'm starting to believe again.
SK in NJ - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#420348) #
Mitch White looks solid. Swing man with potential to be a decent bottom of the rotation SP. As far as this game, I like that JBJ was the one that contributed there. Hopefully he can have a 1-2 month stretch where he's passable offensively.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#420349) #
Shulman and Tabler are talking about the Yankees going 12-24 in a stretch for the first time since 1995.  I remember the Blue Jays going 12-24 to start the season in 1989; it led to the mother of all managerial upgrades
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#420350) #
JBJ has had a couple of tough seasons but one thing he brings to the team (apart from his outfield defense) is experience, including postseason experience (including a good performance in the 2018 ALCS and WS). That was a big swing by him against Cole in the fifth.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#420351) #
The only time Romano pitched in three consecutive games this season he had to get yanked mid-inning and Stripling came in for the save. Score some more runs.

The Jays have shown really good hustle out of the box today.

Shoeless Joe - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#420352) #
The bullpen depth is actually improving.

Romano, Bass, Cimber, Garci, Pop and Phelps really isn't too bad.

It would be nice to upgrade Trevor Richards.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#420353) #
Haven't heard much carping about the Jays not having swing and miss stuff in the bullpen lately.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#420354) #
The bullpen has never really been a weakness this year tbh.

They're 4th in the majors in appearances with the 10th best ERA-.

And the recent additions if everyone stays healthy should push the remaining weak links out.

Roman
Bass
Mayza
Cimber
Phelps
Garcia
Pop

Is a 7 man pen without any glaring weak spots, and then there's Kikuchi who you hope plays up in the pen and then add in White when the rotation is shortened for the playoffs.
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#420355) #
Me = foolish

Might be the theme for most of us this year.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#420356) #
It would be nice to upgrade Trevor Richards.

Tim Mayza will be making a rehab appearance for Buffalo tonight.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#420357) #
Hopefully Teo didn’t just break his left foot.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#420358) #
That home run by Torres was a 96 mph fastball on the inner black. Very improbable.

Pop looks like he throws a very heavy ball. Very good job by the Jays scouting and analytics department.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#420359) #
* I am using "anathema" in its technical sense, as a formal curse by a council of the Church. Excommunication, banishment, damnation - these are the kinds of things Yankees fans typically call for when they are displeased.

Re-upping just in case needed.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#420360) #
Would be nice to have our closer now.

Is Yimi available at least?
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#420361) #
Yimi is coming in. 
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#420362) #
sweet sweet insurance.
uglyone - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#420363) #
Very very nice. White beats Cole.

If they can finish this off tommorrow, first place is in their sights.
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#420364) #
Great win. Just when we thought this team was looking fried. Crazy that Cimber has as many wins as Cole. Come on, Big Alek, get it done for the sweep.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#420365) #
Yankees will face Scherzer and DeGrom Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hoo boy this could get real interesting.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#420366) #
Pop continues to impress.  Yes, he gave up the home run to Torres, but it was a good pitch and I'd much rather that he do that than walk a guy or two with a 4-1 lead. 

I'm glad that they were able to work around Romano's unavailability in a game that was more suited to him than last night's.  Manoah vs. Cortes tomorrow should be fun.  Odds are pretty good that the centerfielder will be...Raimel Tapia. 
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#420367) #
There really isn't a whole lot of difference between Garcia and Romano beyond one being anointed The Closer.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#420368) #
Five innings of one-run ball by a deep and rested bullpen. No problem. And three up and three down in the ninth by Garcia.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#420369) #
Unless Teoscar's foot feels miraculously better, there will be a LH batter in tomorrow's lineup. Kirk is the catcher, Springer the DH, and one of Bradley, Tapia, or Biggio has to take Hernandez's outfield spot. LH batters have been as helpless as little kittens against Cortes this season (8-65, .123/.174/.169). Which is interesting, because coming into this season he had a reverse platoon split. Even including this season, over his career LH batters have hit him significantly better than RH batters.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#420370) #
X-rays negative on Teoscar's foot. A bullet, dodged.
scottt - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#420371) #
A reliever who gives the odd solo homerun is better than the guy who walks too many at times.
You don't use him if you can't afford to give up the one run.

Bass was the closer in 2020 and he was good enough.
The Jays losing the 2 playoff games at the Trop had nothing to do with him.
He's improved since then.

Mayza is coming back. I don't think they dump Richards, he still has some years and he has his uses.
The pen expends in September. They have some options.

Yankees, Rays, even Orioles are there because of deep bullpens.
It feels like the Jays have closed that particular gap.



Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#420372) #
I do think Romano is better. But they also ended up putting Pop in a higher leverage situation than they otherwise would have. In my view, it was a poor decision that has worked out fine.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#420373) #
Incidentally, I am pretty sure Merrifield will be in right field tomorrow.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#420374) #
I am pretty sure Merrifield will be in right field tomorrow.

Probably, unless he's in CF with Biggio in right. It might just be Cavan's turn - Tapia and Bradley played today and he didn't.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#420375) #
I think Tabler - who sometimes misses the mark by quite a lot ("Benintendi off to a nice start as a Yankee" - dude, he was hitting .188/.296/.304 as a Yankee coming into today) actually got the bullpen rollout right. It was all about top and bottom of the Yankees' top-heavy lineup. Phelps and Pop got the bottom half - you could have swapped their innings, I suppose. But it was always more about which part of the lineup was due up.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#420376) #
The phrase “much ado about nothing” comes to mind.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#420377) #
Indeed it does.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#420378) #
Mayza is coming back.

And that will mean a roster move. Either a DFA for Richards, or either Pop or Kikuchi are optioned to Buffalo. What's the September roster expansion - one player and one pitcher?
AWeb - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#420379) #
It hasn't happened often, but the Jays have a good bullpen lineup right now. Romano, Garcia, Cimber, Phelps, Bass, and Pop all seem like reasonable enough options, and Romano is the best closer since Osuna (f* that guy), and before that...not clear. Does Ken Giles count with 1.5 seasons and frequent unavailability? BJ Ryan with two good years sandwiching an injury (always liked him...wasn't his fault they kept using him way too long).  Romano has had two good years in a row closing games, and is backed up by a number of other good options to finish games. That's great!  Today's 3-run game wasn't really much different than last night's 4-run game. The bullpen doesn't strike out tons of guys like some do, which might be the weakness there, but hell, they've sifted through a lot of guys and found a group that, injury-free, can make the bullpen a possible strength.

Mitch White is a great pickup to pick up spot starts and be the long man from a team that didn't need him - The Dodgers team ERA+ is 146, which matches Manoah's. That's absurd, the Dodgers are absurd - their OPS+ is only 115, in line with the Jays, who might be leading the league after today's game.I didn't even notice that deal when it was made. He's one of those guys that are useful, and come next spring, will "be in the mix" for a rotation spot. Kinda' like Stripling I guess?
Today was the first game in a long time I turned on and happened to catch the good portion of the game. Go Jays!
scottt - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#420380) #
The September 5 game is in Baltimore and it will be the Ryan Mountcastle t-shirt day.
Nice!

If that doesn't jinx him, nothing will.

Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#420381) #
Romano is the best closer since Osuna

Casey Janssen was even better than Osuna. At least until he went to the Dominican at the 2014 All-Star break and was never any good again.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#420382) #
It is a minor thing- it might cost you a game once every 50 times you do it.  But as managerial decisions go, that's about as significant as it gets unless you decide to make Raimel Tapia your everyday rightfielder and leave Teoscar on the bench (you can call that pre-scorn if you like)

Yesterday's game was a 3 run lead that turned into a 4 run lead. Today's game was a 2 run lead that turned in to a 3 run lead.  It's noticeably better to have Gausman/Garcia in the first game and Pop/Romano in the second than Garcia/Romano in the first and Pop/Garcia in the second. 

Six games back in the loss column.  Wouldn't it be a hoot if the Yankees and Red Sox both missed the playoffs in the same year? 

The remaining schedule isn't bad at all.  Days off on Monday then September 1, 8, 19 and 29.  Doubleheaders on September 5 and 13.  I'd really like them to use an opener and then Kikuchi on the doubleheader days.  If they gave him a couple of longer outings over the next 10 days, they could do it.  Or they could send him down to Buffalo for a start and then call him back after September 1.  


Glevin - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#420383) #
Can't believe the Yankees are retiring Paul O'neill's number. Good player but not a Hof calibre player and for a franchise like the Yankees, it doesn't make any sense. Bring a good player for like 5-6 years shouldn't be enough.
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#420384) #
I have no issue with calling it much ado about nothing. It is, until it blows up in your face. As I said at the outset, it was a marginally inefficient decision. Sometimes you miss the playoffs by one game. All good.

The team looked sharp from top to bottom today. That’s the best news.
Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#420386) #
it might cost you a game once every 50 times you do it.

One game in 50? But that's fantastic. Romano will blow up more often that. He has already.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#420387) #
Net, Magpie.
John Northey - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#420388) #
Hmm... last time the Yankees and Red Sox missed the playoffs in the same year...2014 - a lot more recent than I expected. The last time before that was ... 1991-1994 (OK, no playoffs in 1994 and the Yankees had the best record in the AL when it stopped - if only the two sides had agreed to an Expos-Yankees one game WS or full series...sigh).

For the younger crowd - the 80's were an amazing time as the Yankees missed the playoffs every year from 1982 to 1994 (Don Mattingly arrived in 1982, retired in 1995 after finally getting to play in a playoff series, which the Yankees lost). Red Sox missed from 1976-1985, then finally got to the WS in '86 and had the infamous ball through the legs moment.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#420390) #
Managing is part art, part science. It isn't a straight algorithm where you match up usage and leverage in a formulaic way, with a predictable increase or decrease in winning percentage if you adhere to or deviate from the mandated approach. There are a lot of variables to consider, including the health of the entire pitching staff (present and future), specific pitcher-batter matchups, the stadium you're playing in, how your pitchers have been performing of late, the upcoming schedule, your managerial intuition about the right move (which may still have some value beyond the quantitative data the FO is sending you), etc.

In other words, it's not obvious that Schneider's bullpen management on Friday was "poor" or "bad."

All that aside, the Jays have had a pretty good four games, haven't they?
Nigel - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#420392) #
Greenfrog, I agree with most of that. I’ve generally tried to describe my feelings towards these decisions as inefficient rather than good in bad. I’ll try describe it another way - poker odds. There are tons of times when playing lower percentage hands work out just fine. There are even times when, depending on how you’ve played the rest of the time or your opponent, it’s a really smart move. But over time, playing pairs of tens or jacks in hold ‘em will generally cost you more money than you win. So yeah, individual circumstances are huge for managerial decisions and you need to adapt and sometimes a good decision (based on odds) blows up on you and vice versa. Over a whole season though, I think you’re better off playing the odds efficiently. Just my view though. I understand the other perspective.
92-93 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#420393) #
If Tellez didn't have an .806 OPS with 25 HR and 73 RBI the DFA trigger for Richards might be quicker.

Injuries usually sort out these roster issues and Mayza could still be a week away from returning.

Merryweather has made 5 appearances in August across different minor leagues - 6.0 IP 0 ER 1BB 10K
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 20 2022 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#420394) #
Pearson and Merryweather … they always remind me of Unbreakable starring Bruce Willis and Samuel Jackson. Of course, the latter’s role in the movie. “They call me Mr. Glass.”
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#420395) #
Tim Mayza set down three Iron Pigs on 10 pitches. Shouldn't be long.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#420396) #
What is an iron pig? I'm glad you asked! Iron pig is just the flipping of the term pig iron which is a derivative of the steel making process for which the area where the team is located is famous for. Just another weird minor league name.

The pitching in the last 4 games has been outstanding. Having Berrios pitch a good game, Stripling make a great return and Mitch White do well has really kept the momentum going. In my opinion, Kikuchi was given one start too many and there was no way the team could have him continually give up 4 and 5 runs early in games. It makes me nervous to even see him come in relief, even if the score was 9-2.
bpoz - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#420399) #
Atlanta started their window in 2018 by winning 90 games. Jays won 91 in 2021 which may be the start of our window. I am ignoring the shortened 2020 season.

Young good players have been arriving in Atlanta all the time which is good for extending their window. F Freeman left Atlanta.

Our good players arriving are Kirk most recently. Some of our young pitching could arrive next year. Moreno and Barger could also arrive next year.
John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#420400) #
I hope Atkins doesn't go by an attempt to salvage an old trade. Tellez is gone, what he does now is irrelevant to what Richards does. At this point I'd be tempted to dump Richards and call up Merryweather. Come September 1st call up Mayza from the IL.

Right now: Close-8th: Romano-Garcia, high pressure: Cimber-Bass, Medium Pressure: Pop-Phelps, Low Pressure: Kikuchi-Richards. AAA depth: Merryweather, Gage, Thornton, etc. Injured: Mayza (and Saucedo & Kay for what that is worth).

Not much question Richards is the low man now. Worst ERA+ is Berrios (73), Kikuchi (76), Richards (79). Everyone else on the roster now is 100+ with only White sub 130 (before today he was at 106). So Berrios is a starter who the team is 17-7 when he starts (he is the girl with the curl, when he is good he is very very good, when he is bad he is rotten). Kikuchi is signed for
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#420401) #
Teoscar is DHing this afternoon and the lineup is better than expected. JBJ in centerfield for defense and Merrifield in right. Thumbs up from me.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#420402) #
Tellez despite his good baseball card counting stats has still only apparently been worth 0.8 bWAR/ 1.0 fWAR over 2/3 of a season.

Good for Rowdy. But no big loss.

Despite this team's desperate need for LH bats, this roster and lineup construction still doesn't have an everyday place for Tellez given Vlad and the need for the DH spot for Kirk and a perpetually-injured Springer.

Kasi - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#420403) #
Speaking of Springer any idea what happened with him on Thursday? He did go 5/5 that day and looked good so not expected that he tweaked something and needed 3 days off again.
John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#420404) #
Oops, had a comment half written, then hit 'send' instead of going in and editing it. Kikiuchi is signed for $20 mil over the next 2 years (front loaded contract with $16 mil this year). But one hopes that his $20 mil left wasn't a factor in the decision to keep him up vs sending him to AAA. Sunk costs are a real thing. Tellez could win a triple crown but that shouldn't affect how the Jays act with Richards, same if Richards won a Cy Young (fat chance) shouldn't affect how Milwaukee uses Tellez.

Once September hits one more pitcher can be carried. Right now I'd dump Richards for Merryweather (seems healthy) and come September 1st call up Gage unless Mayza is ready by then - then you adjust to have Mayza first, Merryweather 2nd, Gage 3rd. All are productive pitchers who the manager could use in leads. Richards was last 8 times out the Jays were behind, only once did the Jays come back and win in those 8 games. He has been trusted with a 1 run lead once all year (April 26th 1 IP 2 K 0 H 0 R), 2 runs 3 times (April 15, May 10, May 28), a tie 6 times (last on June 8th). Basically if the game is close (1 or 2 runs up or tied) Richards hasn't been in the game since June 8th. Now, down by 1 he has been used a fair amount - 10 times, last August 3rd so he hasn't lost all of the managers confidence, just most of it. Only used in the 9th or later once all year (team up by 6 in the 9th vs Philly).

For comparison the 3 guys I listed....
  • Gage - 11 games, once used ahead by 1 (2 unearned runs in extras - covered 2 innings allowing the ghost runner to score both times), once behind by 1 (got 2 outs, walked 1) so not trusted by the former manager.
  • Merryweather - 20 games, twice ahead by 1 (one blown save, one effective), 3 times used in a tie (twice did the job, once allowed 2 runs), never used down by 1.
  • Mayza - 9 times up by 1, 10 times in a tie, 4 times down by 1. Mostly used in the 7th/8th inning (26 times).
So clearly between Richards/Gage/Merryweather the Jays have little confidence in any - for good reason. Merryweather seems the most trusted of the 3. Mayza is clearly miles ahead of all 3 and will be activated the minute he can be.
92-93 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#420405) #
Springer took a foul ball off his knee Thursday night. Even so Biggio has 2 PA since August 14th.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#420406) #
Biggio’s ABs have essentially gone to Merryfield. In many cases I’m not sure why, but it also doesn’t matter a great deal as there isn’t much to choose between the two. I’d still have Biggio in over Merrifield against a RH though.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#420408) #
JBJ's big double against Cole will probably earn him some additional playing time (for better or worse).
John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#420409) #
Today's lineup and OPS+ figures...
  1. Gurriel - 119
  2. Vlad - 143
  3. Kirk - 140
  4. Hernandez - 126 (DH today)
  5. Bo - 102
  6. Chapman - 120
  7. Merrifield - 55 (Jays) 80 (overall)
  8. Espinal - 101
  9. JBJ - 57 (Jays) 61 (overall)
Bench...
Biggio - 103
Tapia - 93
Jansen - 95
Springer - 132

Cortes is a LHP so I see the case for Merrifield over Biggio & Tapia. Given it will probably be a low scoring game I see the case for defense in CF over offense too. As per the earlier comments about Tellez would you play him ahead of Hernandez today? 124 OPS+ but hits left - nah, he'd be on the bench. DH has been split between Kirk-Springer-Vlad (24-38 games each) with 10+ for Collins & Gurriel. This will be Teoscar's 7th DH game, with 3 others starting 1 game each (Tapia, Bo, Jansen). Again, would you avoid giving those guys those games at DH to play Tellez? Collins sure, and the 1 gamers, but the rest? Nah. I'm cheering on Tellez to do well, but he really didn't fit this team once Vlad moved off 3B.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#420410) #
Cortez actually has reverse splits for his career but he is crushing LHH this year. Merrifield in the lineup today makes sense to me.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#420411) #
*Cortes
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#420412) #
I like Whit and think he’s very underrated at this point in his career. He should be a solid every day regular on most teams. In a championship team o would utilize him like Chris Taylor. Recency bias shows that Merrifield is no good but that’s like looking at Berrios and saying he’s no good. Still a lot in the tank imho.
hypobole - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#420413) #
Small samples, but trade deadline deals are invariably small samples. White, Bass, Pop have been as good as or better than expected so far. Merrifield less so, but the 3 that have performed were the crucial pickups.

On the other side of the field, Benintendi and especially Montas haven't lived up to expectations. Trivino and Effross are the two that have performed.

Elsewhere, Soto and Castillo have been terrific. Hader is a mess and has lost the closer spot. Bell and Drury have struggled. Robertson has been excellent in Philly. Any others?
lexomatic - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#420414) #
I like Whit and think he’s very underrated at this point in his career. He should be a solid every day regular on most teams.

I gotta disagree.1) he's 33-34 an age when many ballplayers slow down2) This year he's terrible offensively and last year he was below average3) his expected stats are still below average4) his soft hits are a career high and about 25% higher than last year5) his fielding is dropped from last year (2nd last year was maybe a career best, this is worst, but not much lower than career/ OF is worse, but in line with improvement from last 2 years vs early career - 20/21 were best)
He has speed, versatility - though no great defensive ability, experience, and career if not this year platoon adv v LHP. That's a player that should be on the bench, getting good time when he earns it, but not because of past accomplishments. It's not likely recency bias if it's over more than one season, at his age,  and if underlying metrics support the poor performance.
He may turn out to be useful and important piece of this team. The coaches may find a clue and help turn things around. I don't think it's likely or worth counting on.
scottt - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#420415) #
Springer still out with a knee injury.

Hernandez is the DH after fouling off his foot.

Merrifield in right (not his best spot, but in YS, it should be fine.)
Bradley in center.
Espinal at second.

The Yankees, like everybody else, are bringing all their left bats against Manoah.

1. Benintendi LF
3. Rizzo 1B
6. Cabrera SS
7. Hicks CF
9 Gonzalez RF

No spot for Florial as Judge needs the DH.

Again, they are going bat before glove.

92-93 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#420416) #
The Jays definitely thought Merrifield was worth counting on, as he will be making more $ than Gurriel next season.

Gerrit Cole has thrown 54 pitches in his career above the zone 100+ mph. Batters were previously 0/17 with 15 Ks on those pitches before Alejandro Kirk's double yesterday. What an incredible AB after laying off some very tough pitches.

John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#420417) #
Geez this number retired stuff is dumb. Paul O'Neill was a good player but not that good.
uglyone - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#420418) #
No-doubter.
hypobole - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#420419) #
Merrifield with some of Magpie's scorn-feeding.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#420420) #
Brutal plus by Gurriel and Bichette to gift two runs to the Yankees
Eephus - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#420421) #
I hate that Rizzo is a Yankee. Damn that was as fine a catch in foul ground as you’ll see a first baseman make.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#420423) #
Both are being paid as under 1 WAR players.
The Royals gave Whit the contract.
This year Whit has 0.6 WAR... worth 5.2 million per Fangraphs (as example, not absolute value).
Which means if he plays about the same and as much he'd be worth the contract. If he plays less but better, he might be worth it. If he plays a little worse but more (worst case, really) he would be worth the contract.
That does not mean they are counting on Merrifield.

extra *scorn* after foul
lexomatic - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#420424) #
Wow Cole escalating things. What an unlikable player. Fits well on the Yankees. Cole deserved getting a warning.
Judge never tried to move out of the way. Though, most don't. barely turned to have it hit the armor.
Eephus - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#420425) #
Manoah definitely looks gassed to me. As I’ve heard many coaches say over the years, you lose command before you lose velocity. It was nice to see Manoah and Judge hash that out though… there was clearly no intent (why would there be in that situation… you’re trying to avoid a long sequence inning) and Alek has been missing arm side all afternoon long.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#420426) #
Manoah does hit batters more frequently than any pitcher in the last hundred years. It's got to be irritating.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#420427) #
I don’t know if he’s gassed, but Manoah hasn’t been that sharp today. Having said that, he’d be throwing a shutout if he had had reasonable defense.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#420428) #
I would prefer Espinal vs. Loaisiga to Biggio (as a pinch-hitter) vs. Peralta.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#420429) #
I do not know why you’d give Boone a reason to pull Loasiga.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#420430) #
OK. Springer, then.  Absolutely fine.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#420431) #
Agree with both of your points there Nigel

lexomatic - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#420432) #
<br>so the Springer move was 3 players burned?
Need to get better pitchers so the team can carry more players on the bench
lexomatic - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#420433) #
<br> the Springer move was 3 players burned?

Or was it 4?
Espinal, Biggio, Springer...PR stays?
So Tapia RF, Merrifield 2b?
I'd rather Espinal vs Loasiga too. I guess they tied it up, but... the defense is worse and the bench is burned early.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#420434) #
Need to get better pitchers so the team can carry more players on the bench

I dunno. If the rest of the world, even the Astros and the Dodgers, think you need eight relief pitchers, I can't see the Blue Jays cutting back to seven. This is the modern world.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#420435) #
Vladdy wasn't exactly busting it out down the line there.  It looked to me like he hit the ground ball directly at the shortstop and started his slow-to-moderate run towards first base. 
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#420436) #
Nice hustle in a critical moment from Vladdy /S
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#420437) #
I like Springer-Peralta better than Espinal-Loaisiga. They had to waste Biggio to make it happen. But they needed to tie the game. The bullets on your bench are no good if you don't use them.
92-93 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#420439) #
Not a fan of leaving yourself in a situation where Bradley is facing a LHP with one out and the bases loaded.

Cimber pitched the 7th today because of the bullpen usage earlier this series.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#420440) #
Cimber just ain’t good enough in a tie game or with a lead. I think that’s the 2nd time in his last 3 appearances that he gave up the tie or lead.
electric carrot - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#420441) #
Gerrit Cole has thrown 54 pitches in his career above the zone 100+ mph. Batters were previously 0/17 with 15 Ks on those pitches before Alejandro Kirk's double yesterday. What an incredible AB after laying off some very tough pitches.

I was in shock when I saw how quickly Kirk got around on that 100mph pitch above the zone. I can't recall ever seeing anything like it.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#420442) #
I think that’s the 2nd time in his last 3 appearances that he gave up the tie or lead.

Not even close. Cimber's given up one run in his last eight appearances and he had a two-run lead at the time.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#420443) #
Dalimon, a run hasn’t been scored while Cimber is pitching since August 9, 6 appearances ago. That was the game where Odor hit the HR after the rain delay, so he did not surrender a lead or tie.

He hasn’t surrendered a lead since August 3, 9 appearances ago. He made a bad pitch today but he’s been very reliable
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#420444) #
It would have been nice to have this one, but the early defensive lapses were costly. 

Cimber has been very good against lefties and is a tough match-up for Judge because of the arm angle.  I am pretty sure that he would have been brought in even if there had been different management of the pen in previous games (even though I disagreed with it).  As Siddall said, he missed with the slider twice in a row.  And badly.  That's uncharacteristic of him. 
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#420445) #
C'est la guerre. When you only score 2, you probably lose. Yankees finally get something really helpful from their deadline pickups.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#420446) #


"I think if Gerrit wants to do something, he can walk past the Audi sign next time."
Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#420447) #
I remember Devers homering on a 102 mph fastball from Chapman. I was mighty impressed with that.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#420448) #
I guess I just tune in more often when he’s coughing things up.
uglyone - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#420450) #
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#420451) #
That was one very nice, efficient trip through the rotation: 30 IP, 22 hits, 5 runs, 3 ER, 36 K, 4 BB. They didn't give up a home run and went 2-0, 0.90.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#420452) #
Could be a three-way tie for the AL WC spot if Seattle loses today (they're down 4-3 to the A's in the eighth inning).
scottt - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#420454) #
A sweep would have been nice but they needed Gurriel or Guerrero to do something with the bases loaded.
If they keep pitching well, it comes down to plays made or not made.

Right now they are half a game behind Seattle tied with the Rays who have the tie-breaker.

That would have them playing in Cleveland.

Lots of games left, but no great spots unless they have the first wild card.

Baltimore has cooled off.

Dewey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#420455) #
Vladdy’s base-running cost us at least two very important outs in the past two games. Yesterday getting thrown out at home (after running through Rivera’s sign?), and today not busting down to first base on a mishandled chance. I hope he’s at least aware of what he did. We should have had a sweep here.
Nigel - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#420456) #
Really didn’t love the Espinal PH for several reasons. Most importantly, as I said, it gave Boone a reason to pull Loasiga who has just been bad this year and didn’t look good today. Leaving that aside, while I agree that Springer/Peralta is better than Espinal/Loasiga but Espinal then Springer against Loasiga is better than Springer then JBJ against Paralta. That was a winnable game - bad defense and bad base running are tough to overcome.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#420458) #
What a job, eh? You manuever to get one of your best hitters up, in a game situation, with the platoon advantage - and it works, he gets a hit - and you still get second-guessed. I'm not even quarreling with you, Nigel. I don't agree, but I don't think you're being unreasonable, you have a valid argument. But what a job!

This is why managers drink.
John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#420459) #
Clearly now we are going to have some saying Cimber is the weak spot after his giving up that HR today. Of course, pre-today in save situations he gave up a 191/240/294 line to all hitters for a 1.77 ERA over 20 1/3 IP - goes up to 2.53 ERA now with 3 HR over 21 1/3 IP. Basically, you look at any stat for him and he is a high pressure guy. I have no problems with him going out there anytime. Cimber/Romano/Garcia are a very solid final 3 in the pen. I like having Bass in the mix too, plus Pop for slightly lower pressure and Mayza once he is healthy for the high pressure times too. If the Jays make the playoffs I'll be quite happy with that group. I see Kikuchi and White being long men in the pen come playoffs (only need 4 starters) with a few others getting consideration depending who they are playing (Gage if you want an extra LH, Pearson or Merryweather if healthy if you want a power RHP - can't imagine Richards is included on the roster - you don't lose a guy if you dump him from a playoff series roster), Phelps should be a lock.

3 out of 4 in Yankee Stadium is an excellent result. Yeah, I wanted that sweep but the Jays have to be happy overall with how that went. In good news Seattle is losing right now, but sadly Tampa is winning again in KC. Baltimore/Boston just starting (would love it to go 15+ innings with worn out pens).

So rotation rest of season...
  • Off to Boston, Stripling-Berrios-Gausman, could use the day off to skip Stripling but he has been very good.
  • Angels: Manoah-White-Stripling (flipping Manoah/White with that off day tomorrow)
  • Cubs: Berrios-Gausman-Manoah
  • Day off: So that Angels flip allows White to be skipped.
  • @Pittsburgh: Stripling-Berrios-Gausman
  • @Baltimore: White-Manoah (DH but the day off pre-Pittsburgh series sets this up)-Stripling-Berrios
  • day off
  • @Texas: Gausman-Manoah-White (adjust White/Manoah however depending how each feels and to setup days off ahead)
  • Tampa: Stripling-Berrios-(DH emergency starter)-Gausman-Manoah
  • Baltimore: White-Stripling-Berrios
  • @Philly: Gausman-Manoah
  • @Tampa: White-Stripling-Berrios
  • NYY: Gausman-Manoah-White
  • day off
  • Boston: Berrios-Stripling-Gausman (use day off to shuffle Berrios and Stripling so Berrios gets the final start of the regular season if important)
  • @Baltimore: Manoah-White-Berrios
  • Day off
  • round 1 of playoffs - Gausman-Manoah-Stripling setup for it. If final game of season is meaningless then Berrios only goes 1 or 2 as a 'keep fresh' so he can start game 3.
YMMV - with the days off the Jays get chances to shuffle, same with the 2 double headers. Hopefully I didn't screw up the order somewhere - originally I did then I had to redo it (two double headers makes things confusing).
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#420460) #
can't imagine Richards is included on the roster

I think he's got a better chance than Kikuchi and a much better chance then Pearson or Merryweather. And he absolutely should. His season numbers were destroyed by an eight game stretch over 18 days in early June, when he got tagged for almost half the runs he's allowed this season. He then went on the IL, and one may be forgiven for thinking he should have gone there sooner. He's pitched in 17 games since returning, with a 2.41 ERA and fanned 25 hitters in 18.2 IP. It's a little like Mayza in 2021, when he had 10 days in May that amounted to half the damage done in the entire season.
John Northey - Sunday, August 21 2022 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#420461) #
Should the Jays make the playoffs the roster choices will be interesting. Many are obvious - Gausman-Manoah-Berrios big 3, White & Stripling both there to share the 4th starter slot, but the 8 relievers have a few open slots. Assuming health: Romano-Mayza-Cimber-Garcia-Bass-Pop-Phelps are probably locks, leaving one open slot for Richards-Kikuchi-Pearson-Merryweather-Gage-Thornton-whoever. Richards in the past 28 days, pitched in 10 games and has a 4.22 ERA with 7 walks in 10 2/3 IP so I don't see him as a lock by any stretch. If Kikuchi does well in September as a reliever I could see him making the playoff roster just to eat innings or face a few tough LH hitters. If Pearson is healthy he would be the best option but Pearson healthy. Merryweather is up and down a lot, when on he is a solid potential closer (like right now in AAA - 2 K's and a hit over 2/3rds of an inning tonight - 4 games in AAA on rehab 4 2/3 IP 1 H 1 BB 8 K's, 2 each game he pitched in) but when off he is useless. Hopefully we see that debate in a month and a bit.

For the lineup we have a starting 8 of Kirk-Vlad-Espinal-Bo-Chapman-Gurriel-Springer-Hernandez with Jansen often catching and Kirk at DH, or whoever is hurting at DH, Tapia will be there like it or not, Biggio, Merrifield are locks too. JBJ is likely just due to speed/defense which can be vital in the playoffs. That covers all 13 slots. Collins, Lopez, and Moreno will all be hanging around just in case - Lopez as a jack of all trades, Collins as a LH bat who can catch when needed, and Moreno in case Kirk or Jansen gets hurt (oh please no even though Moreno had 4 hits tonight - I just much prefer Kirk-Jansen right now).

I have trouble seeing anyone else getting a shot in the lineup or on the mound than the guys listed above. Right now Richards is the only pitcher I see as being a strong risk to not make it other than Kikuchi. Room for just 1 of them if Mayza and the rest are healthy.
bpoz - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#420465) #
Thanks Magpie for pointing out that Richards and Mayza had a short but extremely horrible stretch of pitching results. So what/how should a manager handle this?

K Cash switched closers in the 2020 playoffs I believe. Lucky for him it worked or the TB fans would have been all over him.
Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#420466) #
In Richards' career, he has an ERA of 4.46 as a starter and 4.06 as a reliever.  If you believe he's turned a corner, that's reasonable.  If you believe that Matt Gage or Julian Merryweather or (pick somebody else) would be better, that too is totally reasonable. 
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#420467) #
Post Mortem:

Paul O'Neill seems likeable?

Gerrit Cole is another fool.

Aaron Boone is toast.

I cheer for the Mets.
92-93 - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#420469) #
The whole thing just reeked of over-managing. Espinal has looked much better at the plate recently and has been hitting the ball hard again. Why not just PH Springer for Bradley, even against a RHP? This way you save a bullet (Biggio), and you don't end up in a scenario where your worst hitter is facing a lefty with the bases loaded and one out. Espinal looked surprised by being yanked in that spot.

But yes, while we love to focus on the manager it was the two ABs from Gurriel and Guerrero with the bases loaded that pretty much decided the game (and the poor defense). It also didn't help that Kirk-Hernandez-Bichette went down in order in the 8th on 11 pitches, allowing Trivino to finish off the 9th as well after coming on in the 7th. Vladdy really needs to stop expanding the zone in those situations, he got ahead 1-0 and then swung at two balls. This offense would be a real force if he can revert back to '21 Guerrero.

If we're building a Wild Card roster, keep in mind the team will only need 3 starters. That leaves a lot of room for extra arms and legs on the bench. They would probably still overkill it with 9 RP, but really they could easily get by with 11 pitchers and 15 position players, which would open up two spots. If the playoffs started today it would be an interesting decision between Berrios and Stripling, but they would go with Berrios just to have their best long-relief option available for all 3 games.
John Northey - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#420480) #
Excellent point 92-93 : I forget to factor in the WC series is just 3 games, maybe 2. Obviously Manoah-Gausman are the 2 starters you use for those 2 games, with game 3 being Berrios with Stripling ready to step in if anything goes wrong. Then the debate is do you keep an extra hitter around or do you go with a very deep pen? In an ideal world you'd only need 4 relievers for games 1/2 (Garcia/Romano with Cimber/Mayza mixed in if needed) with game 3 being a Johnny Wholestaff game - Berrios for 3-4, Stripling for 3-4, Bass-whoever for the last bit. I'd probably leave White off the roster unless he is really going strong by then (used as a just in case Manoah or Gausman is off). For the bench who would you use as extras? Moreno or Collins as a 3rd catcher/pinch hitter? Capra or Lopez as pinch runners/defense? This could be why the Jays are debating signing Billy Hamilton - he is pure speed which could be useful in the playoffs. Same for the pure bat of Yoshi Tsutsugo (signed to a AAA deal recently) who has hit 361/490/667 in AAA this year (12 games) vs his ML career 76 OPS+ vs his solid hitting in Japan (285/382/528). Yes, he hits left handed. Realistically though I don't see much use for any of those bench options, thus a 10 man pen is more likely.
scottt - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#420488) #
At this point Berrios would probably get the 3rd game, if there is one.
It would be difficult to end the season with Berrios on the bench and Stripling starting given that Berrios is back next year and the year after while Stripling is gone.

Bichette's first arb year is not going to be what he was expecting.

greenfrog - Monday, August 22 2022 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#420491) #
In case anyone needs a little pick-me-up, the Cardinals beat the Cubs 1-0 today. The winning pitcher was Jordan Montgomery. His pitching line:

9 1 0 0 0 7

In his four starts with St. Louis (since the Yankees traded him), he's allowed a total of one run, walked three, and struck out 24.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 23 2022 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#420493) #
So much fun seeing an ex-Yankee doing what the Yankees need badly right now.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 23 2022 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#420495) #
Jay's pitchers held Aaron Judge to 2 hits in 16 at bats, no home runs, 2 walks and one hit-by-pitch.
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