Something I like to see is how Buffalo batters walked 8 times (3 guys 2 times each - Lopez, Horwitz, and Chavez Young) while the pitchers walked just 2. Yeah, it didn't work out, but those walk totals are a good sign. AA was 5 walks for and against the good guys, Vancouver saw just 2 walks for their hitters vs 9 given up (ick), Dunedin was 6 for, 3 against.

Two questions, one of which is a quiz.

Orelvis has 56 HR's total in consecutive seasons. Has any other Jays minor leaguer ever done that?

And the quiz. Only one Jays minor leaguer has hit more than 28 in a season since JPA hit 32 in Vegas 12 years ago. Who?

Orelvis needs 3 more bombs to match the legendary Chip Cannon for home runs in consecutive minor league seasons. Cannon hit 32 in 2005 between A/A+/AA, and 27 in 2006 at AA. (For good measure he hit 11 more in the 2006 Arizona fall league, slugging .714).

I don't know if Cannon's 59 is the all time record. Carlos Delgado and Josh Phelps each come in at 55. Delgado with 30 in A+ and 25 in AA, 1992-1993, Phelpswith 31 in AA and 24 in AAA, 2001-2002.

Cannon was never able to make the majors due to injuries. He is practicing law in South Carolina

Chip needed 181 more PA to hit those 3 more homers those 2yrs, while being a full 4 years older than Orelvis.

Chip 2 years old for each level, Orelvis 2 years young for his levels.

Moreno will not make the 150 ABs total to lose his prospect status. #2 & #3 would be O Martinez and Tiedemann. All 3 have minor league playing records. After that we don't know.

Vancouver is an interesting level. A quick pass through Vancouver Tiedemann, Zulueta, Barger and others says a lot for these prospects.

Robberse stayed in Vancouver quite a long time for some reason. I feel that he will move through NH quite fast next year.

I'm assuming that Elvis Luciano has gone into the witness protection program.

Elvis was shut down with a stress fracture in his arm.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/blue-jays-elvis-luciano-shut-down-with-stress-fracture/

Age is a massive difference maker for prospects. First strongly noted by Bill James in the early 80's Baseball Abstracts, and confirmed many times since by many others. A single year can shift a guy from 'very good' to 'hall of fame' status (if all else is the same). Thus why it is so rare to see a Phil Niekro or Randy Johnson development curve - reach at 25/24, established at 28/25, play well into their 40's. Johnson's first big year was 29 (2nd in Cy voting), Niekro's age 28 (ERA title) and 30 (2nd in Cy voting). Niekro played to age 48 (the year he briefly played with the Jays and was completely out of gas it seemed), Johnson age 45 (still had some in the tank it seemed but with 303 wins he said 'that is it').

Establishing yourself at a young age in the majors is a MASSIVE advantage. That is why Vlad has a shot at 3000 hits - if he gets 0 hits the rest of this year the 'favorite toy' says he has a 2% shot, if he gets another 40 hits in the 40 games left (conservative estimate) his odds go up to 10% which is higher odds than most. Bo, 1 year older, has a 0% chance if he doesn't get another hit this year, add 40 hits and he goes up to 3%. Both are hurt big time by the short 2020 season when it comes to this tool. Juan Soto reached at 19, faster than Vlad did, and his odds are 0%/2% due to his low hit totals (587 total vs Vlad's 502 but Vlad getting more each of the past 3 years which is a massive factor projecting forward). FYI: If Vlad gets 170 hits total this year (should do that) and the same next year, his odds go up to 18% which would be one of the highest odds a Jay has ever had at age 24, just like his odds at 23 are very high for a Jay (if he gets to 170).

Age 23 odds of 3000 hits: Vlad 10%, Alomar 24%, Lloyd Moseby 2% (up early), Tony Fernandez 0% (due to the Jays keeping him down far too long to let Griffin play), Olerud 0% (10% at 24 after his batting title). The 1994/95 strike hurt Alomar & Olerud's odds significantly. Olerud & Moseby both took a LOT of walks which cut their odds of 3000. Delgado never had a shot (late start, was 24 before he played regularly), McGriff the same. Vernon Wells got up quickly (reached at 20) but didn't get to play regularly until age 23 (Gord Ash/his managers were terrible for calling up kids then not letting them play). Basically, you can see how a delay made it so Delgado & Fernandez went from potential HOF'ers to 'just' very good players. Give them 1 or 2 more years early on and Delgado might have cracked 500 HR, Fernandez might have gotten to 2500 hits and with his defense it might have caught voters eyes. Kirk has a big advantage over Moreno as by age 23 Moreno will have 16 hits vs Kirk's 155 and growing - neither is likely to get to 3000 but that is a big head start for Kirk.

Age is a massive difference maker for prospects. First strongly noted by Bill James

This really only applies to hitters, as James himself noted. Pitchers are an entirely different thing.

There are exceptions, of course. Nelson Cruz couldn't find a regular MLB job until he was 28. Ruben Sierra looked like a future Hall of Famer when he was 20. But they're just that - exceptions.

neither [Kirk nor Moreno] likely to get to 3000 but that is a big head start for Kirk.

He'll have to get out from behind the plate. Only one catcher in the game's history has even managed to come within 500 hits of 3,000. That was Ivan Rodriguez, who caught more games than any other catcher in the game's history. There are far more players with 3,000 hits than there are catchers with 2,000.

I am pretty sure, Magpie, that more recent research shows an aging curve for pitchers that isn't that dissimilar from position players.  But, It certainly happens that a pitcher will come up at 26 or 27, emerge at age 30 and be a significant contributor through age 39 or 40, like Woody Williams.  It just doesn't happen for position players.  I mean, Jose Bautista was something like that, but not quite. 

With pitchers, it's always going to be a question of who can keep pitching. You always prefer the 21 year old hitter to the 25 year old because so very few people are able to hit MLB pitching at age 21. But the one thing you can really count on with young pitchers is that they're probably going to hurt themselves pitching.

The really good ones just pitch and pitch. Oddly, it is fairly common for a young pitch to come up at 20 or 21 and be really good for a few years, maybe after 1 year of adjustment. Before they get hurt.

It's not necessarily a good plan to have them piddling around in the minors once they dominate. Which is relevant for Ricky Tiedemann.

I think someone like Bautista (and Nelson Cruz, I suppose) is just a complete outlier and relevant to little else anyway. But it's definitely a fact that the prospects of a 21 year old who demonstrates that he can hit MLB pitching are way better than someone who first does it at age 25. It's almost guaranteed. But is that equally true of pitchers? I know I tend to think that if they're good enough at age 21 to retire lots of MLB hitters, they'll probably be getting very well acquainted with a surgeon by age 25. It's practically a consequence of being that good, it's what I think is most likely to have been guaranteed. But it's hard to say - we tend to not even remember the ones who fell along the way.

Not just injuries to pitchers. Very few hitters suddenly become good. Guys like Bautista or to a lesser extent Urshela are few and far between.

Very difficult to remake a swing. But more often, perfecting a pitch, learning a new pitch, changing an arm angle can turn replacement level pitchers to very good at almost any age. Look at the guy the Jays faced Sunday.

I have to think that even the Woody Williams trajectory - Charlie Morton would be a very good contemporary model - is extremely rare as well. But if you look like a pitcher, if you look like you could some day be a pitcher - there's a chance you'll keep getting chances. Julian Merryweather will be 31 in a few months, he's got 44 IP in the majors, and people still have hope. Not without cause. But if you can't hit, and by the time you're 28 you still can't hit - everyone is going to come to a conclusion.

Let's face it - pitchers are just weird! I can never quite get my head around the fact that Clayton Kershaw and Jakob deGrom are the same age (three months difference.) One of them has been a huge star forever - the other seemed to just explode on us a few years ago.

Pitchers are weird. Definitely. There are just so many elements to individual pitches- velocity, command/location, movement, deception- and then there's the sequencing which a pitcher is involved in to some degree.

Our current window built on waves of prospects. Started July 31,2018 trade deadline to 2020.

First wave.

Successes: D Jansen, McGuire, Tellez, Borucki, Gurriel, Teoscar,Vlad, Bo, Biggio.

Failures: Zeuch, P Murphy, Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, SRF. And others that are mainly pitchers.

Second wave 2021 & 2022 and maybe 2023.

Successes: Manoah, Kirk, Espinal, Max Castillo.

Failures: None yet. But Merryweather, Kay, Hatch are still in play possible late bloomers or busts.

To be determined: Moreno. Groshans, SWR (#6 Twins) and A Martin (#12 Twins) are successes due to their trade returns.

Each wave is 2-3 years it seems.

So currently IMO it is the continuation of the 2nd wave and the beginning of the 3rd wave.

Candidates are many Moreno, Barger Tiedemann, Zulueta, Robberse, Juenger.

Excellent point Mike. Lets check a few great Jays...

• Stieb: the first great player in Jays history - only pitched in 4 games at 20 (still trying to be a hitter) but had a 2.08 ERA, 15 games at 21 3.18 ERA, called up to majors 100 ERA+ over 18 starts the rest of the way at 21. That was his worst ERA+ until he was 28 (180+ IP each season)
• Halladay: best pitcher ever here, minors at 18 (rookie), 19 (A+), 20 (AA/AAA) but 4.77 ERA then, 21 AAA (3.79 ERA) called up for 2 starts, almost had a no-hitter (1 out away), 22 a 125 ERA+, 23 disaster (48 ERA+, demoted and rebuilt), 24 145 ERA+ and was finally the Halladay that made the HOF the rest of the way.
• Jimmy Key: 21 in A/Rookie 3.22 ERA, 22 in AA/AAA 3.45 ERA, 23 in majors (bullpen) but just an 89 ERA+, 24 all-star starter 141 ERA+.
• Pat Hentgen: started really young - 17 in A-, 18-20 in A, 21 finally in AA, 22 AAA 4.47 ERA (ick) but called up, 23 AAA for 4 games, majors in pen, 24 regular in rotation 112 ERA+ 19 wins was to start game 7 if Carter didn't hit that home run. Cy Young at 27.

Those were the guys who came to mind fast for Jay pitchers. All great, 2 had very brief minors, 2 had longer. Current Jays - Manoah just 9 games in minors, but 3 years in college. Gausman had parts of 2 seasons in the minors before being called up, then spent parts of the next 3 years in the minors. Berrios was 4 1/2 in minors before his first call up (he stunk with a 53 ERA+), back to minors for part of a year then up for good.

The Jays FCL and DSL teams played last game of 2022 today. The FCL Jays finished with a record of 28-27 .509, coming in second place 10 games back of the FCL Yankees.
DSL Jays finished last in their conference with a 18-38 .321 record, last years team came in first with a 38-19 .667 record.