Thanks Eephus because I was bored.

As you know, I have already reviewed the season past after making my customary adjustment (removing the utter randomness of the one-run games) and I'm here to say - some of your predictions may be better than you realize.

Like the NL West. The only reason San Diego finished 8 games ahead of San Francisco, instead of two games behind, was because the Padres got Extremely Lucky in the close games (30-17) and it went quite the other way for the Giants (22-27). That's the whole thing, right there. I think the Giants really were a little better than the Padres this year.

NL Central, you only have yourself to blame. Cardinals are gonna Cardinal. You know this.

NL East - okay, you whiffed on the Mets. Join the club, we're getting jackets made. But I say the Marlins were considerably better than a 69 win team. They lost 40 games - 40 games! - by just one run, more than anyone else in the majors. With just ordinary luck, they're at least a 76 win team.

AL West. Yeah, the Angels will always be worse and the Astros will always be better than our best instruments can foresee. But neither you nor I were deceived by the 2021 Mariners record in one-run games. Yes, it was randomly great - but as I pointed out at the time, the 2021 Mariners also had a winning record in the games that weren't decided by one run. Pythagoras was lying through his rotten teeth about them, and you and I both saw through his jive.

AL Central. Yeah, that's a real dog's breakfast. New rule - believe in Terry Francona, at all times.

AL East. None of it made sense to me, either.

Interesting point on 1 run games Magpie - got me looking at the Marlins and how their new manager - Skip Schumaker (their 16th manger, Jays have had 13 full time plus 2 who were there very briefly, Gene Tenance filling in for a sick Cito, and Mel Queen for 5 games at the end of 1997) - might look really good next season thanks to that. Dumb luck says that 24-40 should be 32-32 so there is 8 games right there shifting from 69-93 to 77-85 with no other changes. Their lineup sucked (86 OPS+ overall) while pitching was a strength (106 ERA+). They should be interesting in 2023.

The Marlins and the Rangers. Texas went 15-35 in the one-run games, which is almost impossible to do. Bruce Bochy is going to look like a genius when they finish second next year.

For a good laugh MLB has released finalists for the Silver Slugger award and has players listed at multiple positions (sigh). So in theory Springer could win as a DH and as an OF. Vlad at 1B, Bo at SS, Chapman at 3B, and Hernandez in OF. For some reason they list all 3 OF positions as just one with 3 awards (Gold Glove finally figured out that they are 3 different positions). For some bizarre reason they have Ohtani at DH and utility (when he only DH'ed or pitched).

By wRC+ with 100+ games at the position...
Adley Rutschman beats Kirk 133 to 129
Vlad is 3rd at 1B at 132 tied with Rizzo, Abreu is at 138 and Lowe at 143
Chapman is 7th at 3B with 117, leading is Yandy Diaz at 146, Devers at 141, then Ramirez at 139.
Bo is 3rd at SS with a 129, ahead of him are Correa at 140, and Bogarts at 134.
Spinger is 5th in the OF at 132, Hernandez 6th at 129. #1 is obviously Judge 207, Trout 176, and Julio Rodriguez 146 (note: I removed Alvarez who is listed on FanGraphs in the OF despite only 56 games there).
DH is Alvarez 185, then way back in 2nd is Ohtani 142, 3rd is Springer 132.

I suspect Ohtani is put onto the utility list so he has a shot at the award. No Jay is leading at their position but I fully expect Kirk to get the catcher Silver Slugger just due to how he was there all year vs Rutschman missing a month+. I'd be surprised if any other Jays win.

{Kirk] was there all year vs Rutschman missing a month+.

True, but Rutschman actually caught more games than Kirk.

Huh. Didn't know that. DH time pushed Kirk to 541 PA vs Rutschman's 470 I guess. 78 games caught for Kirk (vs 51 DH and 16 PH appearances), Rutschman 93 games caught, 23 DH, 6 PH.

The more I look at it the more I think the Jays should be open to trading Kirk this winter. I love Kirk and want him here but the fact is he is limited to DH/C. I wonder if others teams value him as highly as the stats suggest he should be. A team with an open DH slot and catching problems could really use him. As always, Arizona is high on that list with their most used DH (who wasn't a regular elsewhere) having a 51 OPS+ and most used catcher a 76 OPS+, a lineup that leans strongly left, and tons of LH CF'ers on the roster (at least 4 who are ML ready or in the majors already and more on the way). The Angels are weak behind the plate so a deal of Kirk (4 years of control) for Ohtani (1 year) might work but boy would it be a big risk if he doesn't sign an extension but the idea of a lineup of Springer-Ohtani-Vlad-Bo-Hernandez-Chapman-whoever and a rotation of Manoah-Gausman-Ohtani-Berrios-whoever ... wow even if just for 1 year.

I'm certain there are many other teams that would drool over having a C/DH like Kirk who have players we need (CF, LH power, starting pitcher). But will a deal be made? Or will they use Jansen (also a very good hitter who has a solid defensive rep but injury issues), or Moreno (kid with a great bat in the minors and fantastic defensive rep top 5 prospect on many lists in MLB)?

The Bucks and Buccaneers recently won championships, so I predicted the Pittsburgh Pirates were destined to win it all.

Sorry, the buck stops here.

Rutschman vs Kirk is an interesting one.

Rutschman is a 1st overall pick, classic athlete body (6'2" 220 lbs), his last struggles were in a summer league at 19. Now entering his age 25 season as a MLB regular. 2 PB 23 WP 25-11 SB-CS, 15.6 def (FG), 9.1 framing, 28 Rdrs/Yr

Kirk signed for next to nothing as an IFA ages ago and is now played in parts of 3 ML seasons, in playoffs twice, about to enter his age 24 season (9 month age spread between them), has the opposite of an athletic body, but is similar to Yogi Berra at 5-8 245 (Berra was 5'7" 185 so lighter but a tiny bit shorter). This year 12 WP, 1 PB 35-12 SB-CS 14.2 (FG) 7.6 framing, Rdrs/Yr 17

Two very different players. Both showed promise quickly once given a shot and are key parts of their teams. Rutschman looks to be a touch better than Kirk across the board, but not by a lot on offense but some of the defense suggests a bigger gap (both positive though). Note: Kirk has climbed from negative to solid positive in one year - kind of reminds me of how it was with Jansen who came up as a bat at catcher who worked hard on defense.

Here is a fascinating deep dive on the fall of Cody Bellinger. Long story short - the author doesn't believe his troubles date back to the dislocated shoulder in the 2020 post-season, which is what the Dodgers themselves seem to believe. Rather, he believes that it stems from the broken leg he suffered the following spring caused him to subtly change his swing mechanics. (Bellinger continued taking swings and working out after discovering the extent of his inury, as it wasn't going to damage his keg any further or affect its healing.).

Oh man, when you start editing a sentence as you write it... wackiness ensues. There's a "which" missing (before "caused him to"), he had an injury rather than an "inury", and he damaged his leg. Not his keg. Never damage a keg.

Neither LAD or Toronto did much worse than each other. So both should get a decent/similar budget for next year.

LAD probably tries to add someone expensive. Verlander. IMO.

The Jays 2022 #4,5,6 Ryu, Kikuchi and Stripling cannot be counted on for 2023. The team could be in the hunt for 2 SPs in the off season. Adding 1-3 bullpen arms would make sense.

The change in Bellinger's mechanics is so small and so subtle - despite its devastating impact - that I wonder how one would go about fixing it. This is now his natural swing, with years of muscle memory behind it. ("You can't think and hit at the same time" the Yogi wisely observed.) You might need to build a completely new swing for him, simply to break his existing habits. Squat like Bagwell, wiggle the bat like Sheffield, lift the front leg like Bautista- anything to be different from what he is now.

Verlander off to a good start, then the 4th inning...ugh.

As to the Jays rotation, logically they can't blow the wad on 2 starters odds are they will sign someone as a free agent for one slot, the other going to whoever earns it between Kikuchi, White, and guys they sign as rehab hopes, AAAA guys who are here (Kay, Hatch, Lawrence, Frances, etc.), or prospects (Juenger, Palmer, Zulueta, Pearson, Robberse, Robbins, Tiedemann all have chances, but few have good shots - none have much in innings so far thus a risk, but Manoah handled it so who knows?). My bet is on Kikuchi or White getting first shot with the kids working hard to earn their shot by May. The AAAA guys I don't see having any shot except in emergency situations like this year. Pearson and Zulueta have their best shot at the pen.

For relief I'd be surprised if they sign more than 1 guy for the pen this winter to any significant contract ($5+ mil per year) unless someone just falls in their lap late in the winter. I see them working on clearing out deadwood at some point, but identifying who is that is hard. Richards had a horrid ERA but 11.3 K/9 is sweet it is the 4.9 BB/9 that killed him. I expect Phelps to retire, but Romano-Bass-Garcia-Mayza-Cimber are locks with Pop & Richards near locks. That leaves 1 slot for White/Kikuchi so adding more means someone has to go. I wouldn't be shocked if someone is traded from that group of 'locks' as a final touch to get someone the Jays really want (LH CF, SP).

Very good point John N on "blowing the wad". Our top 3 SPs are here long term, 4 years, but there is always a risk of injury to those 3. 2 more years for Kikuchi at $10mil/yr is kind of good because his stuff is good and it is short term and cheapish.

But they "cannot" be bad as Shapiro said due to not good payroll expectations. Bad is not contending for the final WC. The other word I like is "disappointing". Which is contending and/or not going far in the playoffs. So 2021 and 2022 were disappointing.

I think a trade is likely for a SP. Miami is desperate for offense we have Teoscar, Gurriel and Merrifield that can help them. Our players are not equal in offensive production. Teo will be expensive in arb. Miami has a lot of young SPs. So logically they need to trade excess. Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, E Cabrera, T Rogers, Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez are healthy enough, under control, arb eligible, options or no options and whatever. There is no point in hoarding those pitchers.

D Jansen to St Louis is a consideration. They need to replace Molina with an experienced C that is pretty good. They know how to make the playoffs. So can they do that with what they have now at C?

Then there are odds and ends. Is M Clevinger a FA? If so does he get a QO? No QO for Syndergaard but how well has he recovered? He turned 30 Aug 29 so he may bet on himself short term and hope to get a good long term contract. J Taillon and T Walker are solid #3/4.

So there are possibilities to fill the 1-3 year gap before our farm starts producing pitchers. I understand that the jump to the majors is the hardest.

Atkins has done well in strengthening the pitching staff the last 3 years at the deadline.

Cannot rely too much on Hatch, Kay, Thornton and others because they have proved that cannot do anything with their opportunities.

bpoz - that is the key there - find teams with surpluses where we have shortages, and shortages where we have surplus. RH hitting OF we have 2 who the team can trade to make room for what is needed (LH hitting CF ideally), same with our 3 headed catcher situation. In truth if the Jays want to be super-aggressive they'd trade 2 of the 3 catchers and an OF in multiple deals to get a LH CF and a starting pitcher. Relievers are so variable that I prefer them to chase down quality on the free agent market (often bargains can be found there as long as you don't go nuts and do a 3+ year deal at $10+ mil per).

Agreed on Kay/Hatch/Thornton among others who have had their chances and now are nothing more than filler - you keep a few around to keep Buffalo competitive and maybe call them up when the pen is drained and needs someone to eat 4-5 innings even if he gives up 10 runs (Hatch this year - 4 2/3 IP 10 R in his only appearance).

Hadn't thought of St Louis - so used to them having Molina. Ivan Herrera is listed as their top catching prospect, but he only got 22 PA this year in the majors while being decent in AAA (.268/374/396) but nothing 'wow'. So Jansen makes a ton of sense for them - a vet to show the kid the ropes for a few years. Their only LH OF is Lars Nootbaar who was in RF but with just over a year of ML experience and a 120 OPS+ lifetime I can't see them trading him easily. Jordan Montgomery has 1 year left before free agency so he could be traded (solid SP woudl fill in the 4th slot easily, could be as high as #3 here, 110 ERA+ lifetime, was a Yankee for years).

This winter will be quite interesting for the Jays. #1 is to make sure they are a 90+ win team, #2 is to set it up long term, #3 is to figure out what magic is needed in the playoffs (basically it is a crapshoot).

John N Buffalo filler Kay/Hatch/Thornton giving 5-7 decent innings so that Buffalo can be competitive and please the fans is a consideration. They take up 40 man spots which is valuable to the Jays but maybe not Buffalo. However if removed from the 40 then they are very good Rule 5 draftees.

We get back a 40 spot in ST when Ryu is put back on the 60 day IL.

I have 5 prospects that should be added for rule 5 protection. Orelvis will short staff a ML team if picked in the Rule 5, too raw, but a non contender probably does not care.

The question becomes 40 man slots with K/H/T as all 3 are useful players in a 10th reliever/8th starter type way. You also want Buffalo to stay competitive as that keeps them happy and you don't want the Jays to have another Vegas type situation with AAA.

I guess the question is 2 fold then - 1) who needs to be protected (IE: has significant potential value to be a useful player in the majors) 2) who can be cut from the 40 man (Phelps, Lawrence, JBJ, are locks to be pulled, but then 3 come back from 60 day IL, so others have to be pulled to make room). Plus of course, there will be trades at some point which could be multiple for 1 type deals which again shifts things.

With all the moving parts I suspect Atkins will do deals within a week or two of the World Series ending. Most likely multiple for 1 deals to clear up space on the 40 man even if it is a 'loss' on paper as he'll factor in 'if I don't do this I'll lose players xyz for nothing'. I fully expect a surprise or two to happen - guys traded we didn't see coming. At least I hope so as that is a LOT more fun.

I wouldn't fret too much about guys who were not good enough to play this year.
It's too late to give up on Pearson.
They seem to like Hatch a lot, but I don't think he's a starter.
Thornton still looks usable.  I still like him better as a 6th/7th starter.

Zulueta can throw hard. It's too hard to pass on that.

Kay/Griffin/Saucedo/Gage is a lot of lefties.
Hagen Danner has done very little but he's already on the 40.
Horwitz doesn't have enough power.
Orelvis and Barger clearly stand out.
Gabriel Martinez? Probably not ready.

I don't see how they keep both Otto Lopez and Vinny Capra.

Juenger doesn't need to be added till 2024, but he's looking like a potential multi-inning guy.

Once again, I think Atkins will be looking for a left bat.
Both teams in the WS have great power bats on the left.
The Yankees are almost as bad as the Jays with the righty tilt and they didn't fare very well either.
First base is taken. DH is only available part time. Left field looks like the spot.

This is the year before Ryu, Gurriel, Hernandez and Chapman hit free agency.
That will be the time to restock with QOs.

Houston has used high picks, trades and good Int'l signings for their success. They also have been healthy. Verlander missed a year. They have a good supply of prospects arriving to keep the team strong. But now a few of their players are getting old.

Well, what do you know. Vlad won the gold glove at 1B. I felt he made massive strides on defense but not that much. He did lead the AL in Defensive Runs Saved at 1B among regulars so I guess he did earn it.

I'm a little shocked by the Gold Gloves - usually reputation is far more important than performance. I assumed Rizzo would win at 1b and Chapman at 3b for that very reason. I think they actually got it right this time.

Shohei Ohtani made 153 starts as DH, with 28 of those starts also on the mound.

Aaron Judge played 129 games in the outfield, plus 25 games as DH.

Pitching is certainly a unique skill and Ohtani is special.

Yet, it feels like playing defence otherwise becomes under-rated in MVP conversations.

Vlad deserves the Gold Glove. Chapman got hosed.

Some prospect stuff

DM Fox's 3 part interview with Joe Sclafani

https://dmfox.substack.com/p/catching-up-with-pd-director-joe

Looks like Charlie Montoyo will be sitting on the the Pale Hose bench next year.

FYI: For fun I checked the Baseball Cube and they have spring training stats going back to 2006 now. Fun to look at - Vlad you can see in his first spring, the legendary one where he ended it with a home run to win the game in Montreal in the bottom of the 9th. Just 13 AB but 7 H a double, and a HR at age 19. He really wanted to reach the majors as a teenager as I recall. Overall in the spring he has hit 344/404/611, in the Arizona Fall League 351/412/442 (also at age 19).

Kind of fun to look at old spring stats for guys. A shame they don't have the 80's as I'd love to see some of those (I recall a 14 year old being in spring once, Jimy something - a shortstop who never made it but had a very good spring for a kid that young as I recall, heck just getting a hit at that age vs ML pitchers would be damn impressive).

With the WS over I suspect that it won't take long for the rumors to start about FAs and trades.

I will make 3 predictions. None about the Jays because I don't want to jinx them.

1) LAD will have the best record in the NL. This is my tough one because they did not have that in 2021.

2) My easy one. Houston will get 1 of the 6 playoff positions with or without Verlander.

3) Whichever team Verlander plays for if he chooses FA is going to be a playoff contender in 2023 if he has his usual healthy and great season. I am just assuming that he will become a FA. Arizona won 74 games last year so improving to 85-89 could get them in or at least have them contending until the end of the season.

Eephus wrote Good Times and Bad Times for each of the American League East teams back before this season. His bad times for the Red Sox came true amazingly accurately. ( Yay!) Here it is :

" It was a fluke! Fluke! Flukey fluke fluke! The Red Sox have a bizarre habit of swaying from unbeatable barnstormer to dreadful pus over the past decade, with as many 5th place finishes (4) as 1st in that span. Here ( in a just universe) their general offseason apathy bites them hard and they're unable to catch up to the truly great teams around them. The return of Jackie Bradley Jr. for Hunter Renfroe hurts the offense more than expected, Kike Hernandez isn't actually a 5 win player, the starting pitchers beyond Eovaldi can't catch lightning twice ( or even a static spark) and Trevor Story struggles to hit .220 outside of Coors Field.

Ah, that would be glorious."

And it was! It's so nice to see dreams come true. Eephus did come down to earth with his prediction on the Orioles as even in the good times for the team he said " Even in a good universe the 2022 Orioles will be revoltingly terrible." To be fair, none of us saw their massive improvement coming to the point that they were borderline competing for a playoff spot in September. As if the AL East wasn't hard enough, this Baltimore crew looks like they will be a good team and fighting for a playoff spot, if not next year then shortly after.