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Over the years the Jays have had a few GM's and each did drafts and signed undrafted free agents. So how did each do?

An oddity I hadn't noticed before. 3 of the 5 GM's we've had (I don't count Bavasti for 1977 as I suspect Gillick was 100% in control of the draft and most of the rest) had last names starting with the letter A - did the Jays just start looking by alphabetical order and said 'screw it lets just take the first guy' (yes, that is a joke)?

Undrafted Free Agents (UFA)...
  • Gillick: 1977-1994: 1004 signed, 52 reached, 55.8 per year signed, 2.9 reached per year, easily the best is Tony Fernandez (45.3 WAR)
  • Ash: 1995-2001: 391 signed, 11 reached, 55.9 per year signed, 1.6 per year reached, best I think is Gustavo Chacin (4.1 WAR)
  • JPR: 2002-2009: 409 signed, 9 reached, 51.1 per year signed, 1.1 reached, best Henderson Alvarez (made an all-star team after leaving Toronto 8.5 WAR)
  • AA: 2010-2015: 419 signed, 18 reached, 69.8 per year signed, 3.0 per year reached. Best Vlad (13.5 WAR, 2 time AS)
  • Atkins: 2016-now, 407 signed, 9 reached, 58.1 signed per year, 1.3 per year reached (most still working through the system). Best Kirk (5 WAR so far)
So AA easily signed the most per year, just shy of 70 a year, and had the most reach at 3 per year (more might still make it - remember these guys are signed very young). If you go by # signed vs reached the worst was JPR at 45.4 signed to get 1 in the majors. Atkins is at 45.2 (will improve as time goes by), Ash at 35.5, AA at 23.3, Gillick at 19.3. Super scout Epy Guerrero was amazing under Gillick but Ash/Interbrew (owners of Jays during Ash's time) cut the coaching in the minors and scouting money which shows up here big time. JPR was horrid by any measure (lowest per year reached, worst ratio of signed/reached, lowest # per year signed). Kind of surprised that Gillick and Ash signed almost an identical # per year (0.1 spread) but Gillick had 1.3 more reaching per year - that is massive. AA/Atkins both signing more than any other GM before did although AA really went nuts with it and got the results (Osuna, Vlad, Adeiny Hechavarria was decent too plus lots of minor guys).

Note: this includes undrafted free agents in the USA/Canada/PR. So guys like Casey Lawrence & Chris Rowley are included.

So how about the draft? Same measurements plus WAR/draft
  • Gillick: 1977-1994: 790 drafted, 89 reached, 43.9 drafted/year, 4.9 reached/year, 34.0 WAR/Year. Best John Olerud (also 50+ WAR from Jeff Kent, Dave Stieb & David Wells)
  • Gillick Other Drafts: 1977-1986 (4 drafts per year): 163 drafted, 7 reached, 5.4 drafted/draft, 0.2 reached/draft, 2.1 WAR/draft. Best Todd Stottlemyre (22.9 WAR)
  • Ash: 1995-2001: 380 drafted, 31 reached, 54.3 drafted/year, 4.4 reached/year, 37.8 WAR/Year. Best Roy Halladay (HOF)
  • JPR: 2002-2009: 380 drafted, 52 reached, 47.5 drafted/year, 6.5 reached/year, 17.5 WAR/Year. Best Aaron Hill (All-Star)
  • AA: 2010-2015: 276 drafted, 51 reached, 46.0 drafted/year, 8.5 reached/year, 22.0 WAR/Year. Best Marcus Stroman (All-Star)
  • Atkins: 2016-now, 207 drafted, 18 reached, 29.6 drafted/year, 2.6 reached/year, 3.8 WAR/Year (most still playing). Best Bo Bichette (All-Star) but Manoah not far back.
Note: Other drafts is the old January and 2 secondary drafts they had each year. Not many signed through those but a few gems like Stottlemyre, Eichhorn, and Mark Whiten (all 10+ WAR) and poor Mike Sharperson (1 ASG and died far too young).

10+ WAR guys... (included the 2 9.9 guys)
  • Gillick: (17 draft, 6 UFA) Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby, Dave Stieb, David Wells, Jimmy Key, Pat Hentgen, Mike Timlin, Derek Bell, Woody Williams, David Weathers, John Olerud, Jeff Kent, Steve Karsay, Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, Shannon Stewart, Chris Carpenter; UFA: Tony Fernandez, Luis Leal, Jose Mesa, Luis Aquino, Carlos Delgado, Kelvim Escobar
  • Ash: (7 draft, 0 UFA) Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Michael Young, Reed Johnson; UFA: none.
  • JPR: (6 draft, 0 UFA) Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Yan Gomes, Jake Marisnick; UFA: nada.
  • AA: (5+ draft, 1 UFA) Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Pillar, Joe Musgrove, Anthony DeSclafani, Marcus Stroman, more to come (Jansen, Jordan Romano, Matthew Boyd, Kendall Graveman, and Chad Green all might); UFA: Vladimir Guerrero
  • Atkins: (1+ draft, 0+ UFA) Bo Bichette (many more to come I'm sure like Manoah); UFA: none yet (Lourdes Gurriel is close, Alejandro Kirk at 5)
Net reached per year per GM plus net 10+ WAR per year (solid guys)
  • Gillick: 18 years (really 17, but I'm counting 1977 under him) - draft 89, other drafts 7, UFA 52 = 148 players = 8.2 per year, 23 solid guys - 1.3 per year
  • Ash: 7 years - draft 31, UFA 11 = 42 players = 6.0 per year, 7 solid guys (including 1 HOF'er) - 1 per year.
  • JPR: 8 years - draft 52, UFA 9 = 61 players = 7.6 per year, 6 solid guys - 0.75 per year
  • AA: 6 years - draft 51, UFA 18 = 69 players = 11.5 per year (! - he clearly focused on development more than any other GM and said so day one), 6 solids (more to come) - 1.0 per year
  • Atkins: 7 years - draft 18, UFA 9 = 27 players = 3.9 per year (many more coming soon hopefully) - 1 solid so far or 0.14 per year (obviously going to grow).
Obviously Atkins numbers for reached and WAR will be far lower than the others due to his guys just getting started (takes at least 5 years before any UFA reaches, often 10 years before you can say for sure if guys are successful or failures). AA's will also continue to improve as time goes by and more reach and those who are here add to their resumes. AA was by far the biggest development guy running the Jays ever, while Ash was even worse than I thought at it (hampered by owners who were super cheap - iirc every year we heard about the Jays signing guys who were lower ranked than the picks including guys like Wells & Rios who developed quite nicely) but did get a lot of really good players but flopped on role players and trades (Blake & Young never played a game here for example).

So what does this mean going forward? Hard to say, but it seems Atkins is on the right trend - signing more than any GM outisde of AA as AFA's (amateur free agents) to compensate for the reduced draft he has had to deal with. Hopefully it works well.

As a final data point - how did Cleveland do with Mark Shapiro running things? (he did train Atkins and is the president right now) GM 2002-2010, President 2011-2015, Atkins Farm Director 2009-2014
  • Draft: 671 drafted, 75 reached, 6 with 10+ WAR, best by a mile is Francisco Lindor 36.6 bWAR (5.4 reached per year, 0.4 with 10+ WAR per year). UFA's: 838 signed, 32 reached, 1 had 10+ WAR, 59.9 signed a year, 2.3 reached, the only 10+ guy was a big one - Jose Ramirez (40.3) who they signed November 26, 2009 (thus not a big name at the time like Kirk & Moreno). So combined he had 7.4 reach per year but very, very few were star level (7 total, 8th probable in Yandy Diaz and a 9th in Gio Urshela). His 7.4 reaching per year combined is lower than Gillick, AA, even JPR (barely, 0.2 spread). But he also had a budget that was worse than Ash had I suspect so that has to be factored in.
So by that it looks like Shapiro wasn't very good at the draft or UFA's, nor Atkins who was high on the player development ladder (2001 was assistant director of player development, promoted to director of Latin American operations in 2003. In 2006, promoted to director of player development, then promoted to vice president of player personnel after the 2014 season). But they did get a few big hits in the last 5 years in UFA (Ramirez, Diaz, Urshela) so maybe they finally got it figured out just before the Jays poached them. Hope so at least. Kirk and Moreno suggest that they might have (both late cheap signings so odds are it was mainly Atkin's scouts that found them vs old profiles from AA's setup).
Blue Jays Drafts and UFA | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Sunday, November 27 2022 @ 09:48 AM EST (#424571) #
Currently there is a league imposed draft budget. In the past I don't believe that there was one.

AA was WOW!! by getting all those extra draft picks.

All the Gms had flaws in drafting.

Gillick had the most very high picks and too many Gary Harris failures it seems to me.

Ash had some nice picks but he was over his head as a GM especially trades. Woody Williams, Olerud.

Richardi did not like to draft HS kids so shunning even younger Int'l players seems consistent.

AA was young and made genius moves. Getting extra draft picks, elite athletes like DJ Davis and Alford that could not make contact with the ball. M Boyd and K Graveman I honestly feel turned out better than AA expected.

Shapiro/Atkins have to deal with a budget but then so does every other team. Their drafted players are still developing.

Stieb, Key/Wells, Halladay/V Wells, Stroman/Syndergaard, Bo/Manoah all have made their year's draft a success.

John Northey - Sunday, November 27 2022 @ 05:16 PM EST (#424581) #
I loved how AA gamed the system at first with the draft picks, thus forcing the league to change the rules (November 4, 2010 traded for Miguel Olivo who became a free agent the same day - conditional deal so no idea what they gave up, but by offering arbitration to him they got a draft pick #57 used on Kevin Comer, a pitcher who peaked in AAA, but was part of the trade that got them David Carpenter, J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon in 2012). He also was known for trading for relievers in their final season pre free agency, then offering arbitration to get those bonus picks. 2010 5 extra picks (Aaron Sanchez , Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski, Kellen Sweeney, Marcus Knecht), 2011 4 extra picks (Jacob Anderson, Joe Musgrove, Dwight Smith Jr., Kevin Comer), 2012 3 extras (Matt Smoral, Mitch Nay, Tyler Gonzales - none reached), 2013 no extras, 2014 1 extra (Max Pentecost, for not signing Phil Bickford the year before), 2015 none. So 13 extra picks with a few really good ones early on (Sanchez, Syndergaard, Musgrove all very good) but not as much later on.

Not as easy to game it now, but I am surprised the Jays haven't traded for picks as there is that option in a few select cases.
bpoz - Sunday, November 27 2022 @ 06:01 PM EST (#424586) #
AA gaming the draft system is genius!! Now lets give some credit to trades for Int'l FA budget increases. AA did something to off set the high cost of Vlad which was good. Atkins got Zulueta which was also good. Any more examples?

Kirk & Moreno & Henderson Alvarez as cheap Int'l signings. Great.

I definitely want some $500,000-$1mil successes. So far none I believe. Maybe Leo Jimenez is the first. Dahain Santos and G Martinez are possible.
John Northey - Sunday, November 27 2022 @ 06:55 PM EST (#424587) #
Excellent question on the International Bonus trades...

2015: Traded Chase De Jong and Tim Locastro for 2 'slots' (guessing you got $x of space for each slot) - same day they signed Vlad
2017: Traded Lane Thomas (2.9 WAR so far over 4 years in the majors, backup OF with a 105 OPS+, everyday for Washington this year) for more space
2019: Traded Dwight Smith Jr. for more space; Traded Kendrys Morales and cash for slot space and Jesus Lopez.

And that is it. 2015 was obviously for Vlad, 2017 and 2019 are harder to pinpoint. Eric Pardinho was the big 2017 signing ($1.4 mil), then Leonardo Jimenez ($800k) and Miguel Hiraldo ($750k). 2019 was Shun Yamaguchi (doesn't count to cap - $6.35 mil), Rikelvin De Castro ($1.2 mil), Robert Roberti ($750k) and lower down (no bonus listed) is Yosver Zulueta ($1 mil according to SportsNet. Also was used to sign Jiorgeny Casimiri and Sem Robberse according to another SportsNet article. Seems to have been money well spent given how Robberse and Zulueta are looking. Lets hope. Casimiri was in A ball at age 20 last season (just 12 1/3 IP with 3 BB 13 SO) guessing he has had injury issues. Not like losing Morales (-0.9 WAR then retired) or Dwight Smith Jr (-0.8 WAR) were major losses or Lane Thomas (2.9 WAR) or Chase De Jong (0.5 WAR) and Tim Locastro (0.2 WAR) = net of 1.9 WAR to help sign Vlad and those other guys. Lane Thomas might be decent but I don't see him becoming an All-Star. Investing in UFA's is a smart move it seems.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 29 2022 @ 09:58 AM EST (#424600) #
I just checked our results for the drafts from 2010 to 2022 for success and possible patterns. I am limiting myself to high picks.

One pattern I noticed and very clearly to me anyway is the the 1st pick always got the biggest bonus or was close to the biggest bonus.

Here are AA's picks.

2010 Biggest bonus Deck McGuire. We had 8 picks in the 1st 100. Only Sanchez and Syndegaard were successful.

2011 5 1st round, 2 2nd & 1 3rd. Top pick Tyler Beede did not sign, 2nd round D Norris got the highest bonus. The best was Musgrove our 3rd 1st round pick. Remember unsigned top 3 rounds are not lost but carried forward to next years draft.

2012 5 1st round, 1 each for round 2 & 3. Highest bonus M Smoral 3rd pick round 1. DJ Davis & Stroman also got high bonuses. Best pick Stroman.

2013 No extra picks. P Bickford, C Hollon & P Murphy. Bickford DNS. I liked this draft because of many HS pitchers but no successes like with Syndegaard and Musgrove. No high bonuses paid. M Boyd and K Graveman were successes but their bonuses were way under slot.

2014 #9 & 11 overall picks. Hoffman and Pentecost, biggest bonuses, roughly $3 mil each. SRF $1,128,800 and N Wells $661,800. No real success there. Best pick 10th round J Romano, way under slot at $25,000.

2015 1st round Jon Harris got the biggest bonus at $1,944,800. 2nd pick B Singer DNS. No successes but T Bergen did pitch in the majors.

Shapiro/Atkins picks.

2016 1 1st, 2 2nd & 1 3rd. #1 Zeuch got the biggest bonus which was $1,075,000 higher than the 2nd highest. Bichette.

2017 2 1st, 1 2nd & 3rd. The 1st 3 got slightly over slot at $2.8 mil, $2.5 mil and $1.5mil. Warmoth, Pearson and Danner. Riley Adams was the 3rd round & got slot. Adams has been the most successful.

2018 Too soon to say. Groshans got the biggest bonus but it was way under slot. 3rd round Kloffenstein 2nd biggest and way above slot. G Conine got slot at $1,350,000. So far no successes.

2019 Too early to tell except for Manoah who got the biggest bonus at slot. $4,547,500.

2020 Too early to tell. A Martin ate up most of the budget.

2021 Too early to tell. No 2nd round pick. G Hogland got paid about half the draft budget.

2022 Too early to tell. 1 1st #23 B Barriera $520,600 over slot.3 2nd round Toman $1,153,100 over slot. 1 3rd A Rodon $126,000 under slot.

I am definitely bothered that our 1st pick in most cases has failed and used up a lot of the draft budget.

Glevin - Tuesday, November 29 2022 @ 10:23 AM EST (#424601) #
"I am definitely bothered that our 1st pick in most cases has failed and used up a lot of the draft budget."

That's standard. Most first round picks don't have careers (especially later in the round) and first rounder will almost always have highest signing cost. Now, the Jays haven't been very good with first round picks, especially hitters, in a long time which is another issue. Last 1st round hitters who made an impact in the majors were Hill and Rios. Since, the Jays have drafted, Martin, Groshans, Pentacost, Nay, Davis, Smith, Anderson, Cooper, Jackson, Arencibia, Ahearns, and Snider in the first and supplemental rounds.

AA single best move with the Jays was getting those extra picks and it's baffling nobody else tried to do it before him. Unfortunately, Jays didn't draft well with those picks. Jays had 23 1st rounders from 2007-2014 and Stroman is the only player who had a noteworthy career with the Jays (Brett Cecil is next best) and Syndergaard and Musgrove only other ones who had good careers elsewhere.
hypobole - Tuesday, November 29 2022 @ 04:09 PM EST (#424604) #
IIRC, the Orioles tried to sign the Mesa brothers, but they went to Miami. So they had bonus slots left over after the July 2nd signing period passed with no one worth signing. The Jays traded Smith jr and used the money to get the 2 Dutch kids in late July.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 29 2022 @ 10:54 PM EST (#424609) #
First round picks have been a Jay issue from '77 onwards. 75 first round picks, 50 reached, Roy Halladay the best by a mile (64.2 WAR), 2 30's (Shawn Green & Chris Carpenter), 6 in the 20's (Vernon Wells, Lloyd Moseby, Alex Rios, Shannon Stewart, Aaron Hill, and Marcus Stroman). 4 in the 10's, 10 with 4-9.9, 7 with 0.1 to 1.9, 2 dead on 0 (Groshans & Russ Adams), 18 sub 0 (worst are Kevin Witt at -1.6, then Joe Lawrence at -1.0).

8 times the Jays had a top 5 pick (should be an easy lock) but never the #1 pick. Moseby & Wells big successes, Billy Koch a 5'er, and Matt Williams (not the HR guy) made the majors. 4 others haven't reached (Austin Martin probably will someday but I don't see stardom in his future anymore). This includes the infamous Augie Schmidt (taken 2nd overall, 5th was Dwight Gooden but the Jays did good in the 2nd taking David Wells who would end up with more WAR than Gooden). That draft is also noteworthy for Barry Bonds being taken mid 2nd round by the Giants but he didn't sign. Other interesting DNS's in the 2nd round were Barry Larkin (Reds) and Bo Jackson (Yankees). 3rd round saw the Jays take Jimmy Key. Imagine if the Jays had taken Gooden round 1 - they would've had 3 'WOW' pitchers in one draft and the 80's Jays would've been even better. Sigh.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 30 2022 @ 09:32 AM EST (#424611) #
Some Bauxites have said that they saw the 1st round pick and "were not impressed" or even "disappointed". Those Bauxites were correct. Sorry to say this but what was the FO and scouting director seeing to get it so wrong.

Until recently the Jays could not produce ML Cs. I think Yan Gomes was the next after Borders & Myers. I was against H Danner becoming a C due to this organization failure. M Pentecost was a C. So go ahead and use low picks on Cs.

3B was another area that the jays are weak at producing. Sprague was a draft pick. Gruber rule 5. Donaldson and others were traded for.

2B also not great O Hudson is all I can think of.

It is believed that G Moreno could handle C/2B/3B. That arm is fantastic. Another 150 ABs as a regular will establish if he can hit ML pitching.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, November 30 2022 @ 12:05 PM EST (#424619) #
It's also been mentioned before, bpoz, that there hasn't been a homegrown outfielder since Kevin Pillar. Of course, part of that is because the club drafts a lot of middle infielders and pitchers.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 30 2022 @ 12:54 PM EST (#424620) #
Very true ISLAND BOY. DJ Davis, R Pruitt, A Alford had decent bonuses.

Top picks like S Green, S Stewart and R Rios are not being made. Our past has had success with Rule 5 G Bell and draft picks D Bell, J Barfield, GA Hill, M Whitten and a few others. I had very high hopes for T Snider
John Northey - Wednesday, November 30 2022 @ 10:13 PM EST (#424627) #
I think the lack of developing OF is more a product of a focus on pitching and up the middle prospects. For example, a corner OF, if his hit tool doesn't develop, is useless, same for 1B. So based on position drafted at here is the first round...
  • C: 4 drafted, only 2 reached - JP Arencibia (1.9 WAR) and Matt Stark (-0.5) who I felt never got a real shot despite a good bat.
  • 1B: Moseby, Pete Tucci, David Cooper - Moseby the only success.
  • 2B: None.
  • 3B: Sprague, Rios, Kevin Ahrens, Mitch Nay - 2 All-Stars, 2 flops.
  • SS: 15 players - Aaron Hill easily the best, then Felipe Lopez, the rest were 0 or worse for WAR with 7 not reaching
  • OF: 12 players - last in 2012, Shawn Green, Vernon Wells, Shannon Stewart all 20+ WAR guys. The last 5 had 2 who did something (Travis Snider & Gabe Gross both got 4 WAR), last 3 a net of -0.8 WAR.
  • RHP: 29 - 1 HOF (Halladay), Carpenter, Stroman, Syndergaard, Karsay, and Musgrove all cracked 10 WAR. Only 7 didn't reach out of the 29 including Gunnar Hoglund & Brandon Barriera (both with a good shot at making it).
  • LHP: 8 - 7 reached, James Paxton (DNS) the best, Ricky Romero next best at 9.9, just 2 were sub 0 WAR - very good for getting 'meh' guys, but no stars.
First round Jays team...
C: JP Arencibia (1.9)
1B: Lloyd Moseby (27.6 WAR, most in CF)
2B: nada
3B: Alex Rios (27.3 WAR, most in RF)
SS: Aaron Hill (24.4 WAR, most at 2B)
OF: Green (34.7 RF), Wells (28.6 CF), Stewart (24.9 LF)
LHP: Paxton (12.5 but DNS) or Romero (9.9)
RHP: Halladay by a mile (64.2) then Carpenter (34.2), Stroman (20), Syndergaard (10.9), Karsay (10.9) all ahead of any signed LHP. Manoah at 8.7, just ahead of Sanchez (8.0) and should crack 10 in 2023.

So great pitching, but weak at 2B and C.
Glevin - Thursday, December 01 2022 @ 02:28 PM EST (#424632) #
Baseball off-season is just way too slow. I'm not saying every transaction should happen in a week or something but it's been almost a month since the WS ended and Jose Abreu is the first good free agent to sign. I hope the winter meetings push some stuff along.

About Mattingly, I think it's generally good although not a huge deal either way. Schenider is a rookie manager and never played in the majors and having someone who was an elite player with lots of management experience at his side should help.
John Northey - Thursday, December 01 2022 @ 04:52 PM EST (#424634) #
Agreed on Mattingly. I'm not a fan of his (mainly due to the media drooling over him all the time), but he was an all-star gold glove player, then a coach, and a manager for years so lots of stuff there. If he is onboard with the rest of the management team then it should work well. By this point a WS ring has to be his #1 priority - you don't hang around MLB that long without wanting one extremely badly. Just thing - when he first came up to the majors the Jays had yet to have a 500 season, or even not come in dead last. His first pro season was the Jays 3rd. Seems a perfect counterweight to Schneider who has been a Jay lifer (only played pro ball as a Jays minor leaguer - a backup catcher at that, then only coached here and finally became a manager). I like it.

FYI: on the ex-Jays transaction front - Franklin Barreto just signed with the Nationals as a free agent - I remember being worried he'd come back to bite the Jays in the Donaldson trade but has just 101 ML games, 47 OPS+ 175/207/342 as a 2B/SS. A good reminder of how often prospects flop. Another ex-Jay minor leaguer Josh Palacios was just released - he generally hit well in the minors but has a 43 OPS+ in the majors. Cleveland just signed Anthony Gose to a 2 year minor league deal (odd but due to his going for Tommy John surgery thus out for 2023) - he has been effective as a LHP in their pen over 27 2/3 IP with a 103 ERA+ 12 K/9 but 5.2 BB/9. Also Matthew Boyd signed a 1 year deal with the Tigers for $10 mil.

The big one - Aaron Judge - has been offered $300 mil over 8 years by the Yankees but the Giants appear to be hot and heavy for him too so it'll be interesting to see what comes of it. The biggest free agent contract ever is $330 mil for Bryce Harper, largest AAV is $36 mil for a hitter (Trout) and $43.3 overall (Max Scherzer). $300/8 = $37.5 so the biggest AAV for a hitter is pretty much a lock for him, I'm guessing his goal now is $331 mil overall or better. Suck those Yankees for every penny you can Aaron!
bpoz - Thursday, December 01 2022 @ 05:38 PM EST (#424636) #
Count me as a 2nd person finding the off season slow.

I review our prospect list and check for activity on C's Plus baseball. A nice thing about having a short term memory is that everything is new and exciting.

Sun, Mon & Tue I will fret about the rule 5 draft.

Blue Jays Drafts and UFA | 15 comments | Create New Account
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