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Well, the last one is getting long and time to focus on what else the Jays need as we head into Christmas.

With a new LH hitting CF in Kevin James Kiermaier, a new #3/4 starter in Chris Bassitt, and a solid reliever in Erik Swanson the 3 biggest needs for 2023 were covered.

Now the goal is to get one more LH hitter (ideally an OF) with a killer bat - Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, and Michael Brantley are all solid free agent options. Or if the Jays are willing to go with a RH DH/1B JD Martinez is still out there looking for a deal. Tons of trade potentials, especially with Arizona, are out there too.

The other goal might be more pen depth (always a few FA relievers out there - Taylor Rogers, Adam Ottavino, Japanese RHP Shintaro Fujinami is out there too, among others), or another starter (Johnny Cueto is rumored to be on the Jays radar while Carlos Rodon is also still available for lots of $$$). But with the payroll already north of $230 mil I'd be surprised if they go much further this winter.

Trade pieces are still available - the 3 catcher situation hasn't changed, the 3 headed 2B is also still kicking. People keep talking about moving Bo from SS to 2B or CF but I don't see it. Vlad before the offseason was talking about wanting a long term deal but will the Jays be willing to meet whatever he is asking for (probably well north of $200 million over 10 years).

Lots to talk about that is for sure. Top free agents left are Dansby Swanson (SS), Carlos Rodon (SP), and Andrew Benintendi (OF), Nathan Eovaldi (SP), Taylor Rogers (RP), and JD Martinez (DH) (that's all that is left from the top 25 FA's). The Jays might just sit on what they have and see if there are any last minute bargains come late February as free agents get anxious to sign. Maybe get another great deal like they did with Marcus Semien pre-2021 (a Jan 30th signing).

What is everyone's thoughts? (like I need to ask)
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grjas - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 06:51 PM EST (#425276) #
Much as I was hoping to get one of the Arizona OF's- like many here- I doubt that happens. “When it came to a role, they said they want me to play pretty much every day,” said Kiermaier...that's pretty definitive, and reneging on a commitment to a player like him would be a huge black eye for the team in future years.

I suspect they had trouble finding an agreeable deal with Arizona. If their valuations were similar to trade simulator, both Varsho and Carroll are in the 70's and would cost something like Kirk (value-52), plus plus...and it's not clear what "plus plus" would work for both teams. Theoretically, Jansen and Thomas are valued equally, but doubt Arizona gives up that many low costs years of a solid outfielder for a few of Jansen's. Never say never, but seems unlikely to me.

They certainly need a very good LHH as their lineup is arguably more vulnerable than before since Hernandez hit righties better than Keirmair. And agree with many that they need another SP.

Personally I think they have enough for now in the BP. It looks pretty solid; as well, with Pearson, Zulueta, Mayberry and Kikuchi all having big swing and miss potential, hopefully one of them steps forward. If not they find another at the deadline.

They do have time to fill in the holes, but there are still a couple of big ones.
bpoz - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 07:02 PM EST (#425277) #
I am expecting a few NRIs. OF and pitching mainly.
Eephus - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 07:14 PM EST (#425278) #
Definitely like the Conforto idea, if he's agreeable to a 2021 Semien-like deal. Also love the idea of adding Cueto, but that's mostly because I'm a Reds guy and Cueto is just so darn fun to watch. He'd be one heck of a #5 even if he's more of 2021 Cueto than 2022.

If he is actually (mostly) healthy and hits as well as even Tapia (not a high-bar), I think Kiermaier is going to win a lot of people over very, very quickly. Watching a bunch of his defensive highlights, I never realized what a great arm he had also (I was too distracted by the decade of him torturing us, surely). And he's just such a cunning maniac on the bases... I'm very into it.  
John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 07:21 PM EST (#425279) #
I suspect the Jays are saving their bullets for mid-season - both budget wise and prospect wise. If Moreno is kept down for April/May/part of June another year of control is gained and it wouldn't be hard from a pure baseball POV to justify it (2 full time catchers in majors, want more reps for Moreno behind the plate). By the end of June the Jays will have a much better idea on how the rotation is doing - will Bassitt be solid? Will Berrios go back to his old self? Will Pearson by some magic become what the Jays always hoped? Will Kikuchi or White pitch like they did pre-Toronto? If those are mostly positive the Jays won't need more starting pitching mid-season but might need pen help. Will KK and Springer be healthy or will one or the other need a full-time or almost full-time fill-in? There are lots of variables and right now the worst issues are covered imo. Waiting and seeing is probably the best right now. If Bradley or Benintendi or Profar find the market poor and come asking in late January for a deal, maybe a team friendly one can be made. Maybe by the end of April Arizona gets sick of their catcher issues and trying to rotate all their LH CF'ers around and makes a deal at long last.

All playoff teams need to make a deal mid-season. In '85 it was for Al Oliver & Cliff Johnson to DH, in '87 it was for Flannagan to move into the rotation after earlier acquisition Neikro flopped. In 89 it was for Mookie Wilson, in 1991 it was for Candiotti, in '92 for David Cone, in '93 for Tony Fernandez, in '15 it was wholesale changes (Price, Tulowitzki, and others), in '16 it was for Francisco Liriano, in '20 Walker & Stripling, in '21 Berríos, Richards, and Cimber, in '22 Merrifield, White, Bass, and Pop. Every playoff team/near playoff team the Jays have had made significant trades mid-season (under 3 different GM's, heck, even Ash made some when the team appeared close sadly as those were bad trades). I doubt 2023 will be any different.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 08:00 PM EST (#425280) #
Rodon to the Yankees, 6/162
Lylemcr - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 08:02 PM EST (#425281) #
Yankees are going to have the all-time most expensive IR next year.
bpoz - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#425282) #
Avg $27/yr for Rodon.
John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 10:21 PM EST (#425284) #
Dang, was hoping an NL team would get Rodon instead. Hopefully he reverts to his pre-2021 form (536 IP 100 ERA+ 6 seasons, sub 100 IP per year). That'd be nice.
John Northey - Thursday, December 15 2022 @ 10:32 PM EST (#425285) #
mendocino mentioned: "You forgot Otto Lopez who is splitting his starts between CF & 2B for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League."

Excellent point. I see Lopez as a strong possibility for the bench right now. A solid winter - 292/338/375 over 80 PA. 8 games at 2B, 13 in CF. Very smart on his part if that was his choice to do a lot of CF time given the Jays needs. A super-utility job could be his ticket to the majors. Right now I see the Jays as Kirk/Jansen, Vlad, Espinal/Biggio, Bo, Chapman, Gurriel, KK/Merrifield, Springer for C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF respectively. Leaving 2 slots for the bench. Lopez, Capra, Horwitz, Lukes are the guys I see fighting for those 2 spots for now, along with any NRI's and other free agents who are signed between now and opening day. My favorites are Lopez and Lukes at this point to cover everything, although with KK they might want Horwitz to be a stronger bat for pinch hitting.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 01:00 AM EST (#425286) #
Rodon signing likely means Ohtani not going to Yankees as a FA.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 07:25 AM EST (#425287) #
I've seen speculation that the Dodgers are keeping their payroll down so they can offer Ohtani a huge deal next offseason. They let free agents Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, Trea Turner and Andrew Heaney walk away and have only signed Noah Syndrgaard so far. That Ohtani would like to stay on the west coast with a team that has yearly World Series aspirations makes sense, too.
greenfrog - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 10:26 AM EST (#425289) #
"By signing Rodón, the Yankees have pushed back out ahead of the rest of the division, and given themselves a good shot at an all-important playoff bye." -Ben Clemens

That is probably true. We'll see how it all plays out, though. The Blue Jays moves this off-season have been reasonable, if underwhelming, but the Yankees will always have more firepower to make big moves in free agency.
scottt - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 10:56 AM EST (#425290) #
It's a huge commitment for the Yanks who will be hanging around a 300M payroll.
They lose picks 2 and 5 as well as a 1M in IFA money and their first rounder gets pushed 10 picks later.

I don't think the Jays will mind facing Rodon, who is a lefty after all.

Like the Jays, they have a batting order that tilts heavily right.
Rizzo is the lone left hitting regular and Hicks it the lone left hitting bench player.
I suppose they stick switch hitting Oswaldo Cabrera somewhere in there but the league will probably figure him out.

A lot depends on Judge being healthy and staying productive with his special balls.

dalimon5 - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 11:02 AM EST (#425292) #
Heyman has been writing about the Yanks trying to move Donaldson and Hicks with no takers. I didn't see the "News that isn't News" thread so I'm posting here.
Ducey - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 11:22 AM EST (#425293) #
Not that familiar with Hicks other than he is an OF. So I looked him up.

33 next year. $10.7 M next year, and then $9.7 per for 2024 and 2025.

Hit 216/330/313 last year.

John Northey - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 01:21 PM EST (#425295) #
Gotta love the Yankees having issues with Donaldson and Hicks contracts - Donaldson gets $21.75 mil this year and a $6 mil buyout for 2024, Hicks $10.79 this year, 9.8 each of the next 2, $1 mil buyout for 2026.  50% tax rate for the Yankees plus up to a 60% surcharge if they hit $290 mil (pretty much a lock now) so basically Donaldson is costing them around $40 mil, and Hicks $20 mil.  If I was a team in rebuild mode I'd call the Yankees and try to do a deal like the Jays did all those years ago for Liriano where they got McGuire the first trade, then Teoscar on the second by being willing to eat money.

The Dodgers are said to be trying to reset their payroll tax this year (cuts it from 50% to 20%) then they can go whole hog and sign Ohtani to a $50+ mil a year deal if they want.  Doubt many clubs will be in on the bidding, but all it takes is two to skyrocket it (or one - see A-Rod's first big deal).  I don't see the Jays being involved in that insane bidding, so I'm hoping he stays out west, and ideally goes to the NL so come on Dodgers, Giants, and Padres!

In other news - Tyler Beede who the Jays drafted but couldn't sign back in 2011 is going to Japan.  Just a 78 lifetime ERA+ in the majors, never higher than an 82. Jays took him just before the Cardinals took Kolten Wong  (23 WAR lifetime) but used the replacement pick the next year to sign Marcus Stroman (now at 20 WAR - traded for Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson who was later flipped to get Berríos).  I'd say that worked out well.  Guess not signing Beede was a good thing.

For catcher trades - teams known to be look are the Cubs and Diamondbacks so still a chance to get one of those good LH hitting OF'ers Arizona has.  A quick look at the Cubs and I don't see any LH hitters who are tempting so maybe not a good match there, but who knows?
Lylemcr - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 02:06 PM EST (#425296) #
Yankees Starting Staff
- Cole
- Rodon
- Severino
- Nestor Cortez

That's pretty good. I am still pessimistic of Cortez, but we will see. It is better than the Jays, IMO.

Yankees Hitting lineup
- Bader
- Judge
- Rizzo
- Stanton
- Torres
- Donaldson
- Cabrera
- Kiner-Falefa
- Trevino

(also add Volpe to the Mix).
This lineup does not scare me. I think the potential of Cabrera\Volpe could change this, but Rizzo, Stanton, Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa and Trevino are likely to take another step backward next year.

So, I think the Jays should be able to win the AL East next year. They may not run away with it.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 02:15 PM EST (#425297) #
I agree. I think this is the year that the Rays finish outside the top 3. Jays and Yanks will battle for the top and the Orioles will be closely behind.
Gerry - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 04:29 PM EST (#425298) #
Benintendi to the White Sox, 5 years, $75M.

Gallo to the Twins, one year, $11M.
Gerry - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 04:32 PM EST (#425299) #
Anthony Kay has been DFA'd to make room for Bassitt.
John Northey - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 04:42 PM EST (#425300) #
Well, the Jays chances just dropped - Anthony Kay was just removed from the 40 man, designated for assignment.  OK, not that big a blow.

Rotation... Jays vs Yankees projected WAR via FanGraphs  (2 methods used there)
  1. Manoah vs Cole - 2.6 vs 4.4-4.5
  2. Gausman vs Rodón - 3.7 vs 4.5
  3. Bassitt vs Cortes - 2.3 vs 2.2
  4. Berríos vs Montas - 2.0 vs 2.3
  5. Kikuchi/White vs Severino/Germán - 1.0-1.1/0.5 vs 2.3/0.6
One can argue about order, but the bottom line is 12.1 vs 16.3 for the top 6 each  Rodon was a big add for the Yankees without a doubt, if healthy.  Montas sucked royally as a Yankee but was excellent before that so a wide range of potentials with him (3.18 ERA in Oakland, 6.35 as a Yankee over 8 starts). 
bpoz - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 05:36 PM EST (#425301) #
It will be interesting to see how the big spenders do this season.
92-93 - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 05:49 PM EST (#425302) #
That Yankees lineup looks like it too could use a Brantley or Conforto.
John Northey - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 06:51 PM EST (#425304) #
That sucks Gerry - but not as much as it could've if either went to NYY.  Andrew Benintendi looked to be the best available for the Jays OF, but entering his age 28 season it was safe to expect him to get a deal like he got (5 years, $75 mil).  Joey Gallo looked like a good buy low target (79 OPS+ last year, but 109 lifetime), signed for 1 year at $11 mil. That deal would've been nice but it obviously didn't work out.  That leaves Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley as the only OF free agents who hit left or switch hit that might tempt the Jays. 

I'd say the free agent market is starting to dry up now.  Should be interesting to see if any bargains show up that the Jays can take advantage of.
Gerry - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 09:51 PM EST (#425305) #
I saw a Blue Jay related story on the CTV Toronto news tonight. Blue Jays prospect Irv Carter is in town visiting patients at the Holland Bloorview rehab centre. He did it last year too.

His sister has had 27 operations, presumably in Florida, so he is sympathetic towards kids in rehab.

It was a lovely story and kudos to him for doing it.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, December 16 2022 @ 10:25 PM EST (#425306) #
Manoah vs Cole 2.6 vs 4.4-4.5

Manoah had 5.9 WAR last year and he's supposed to drop to 2.6 ? What are they projecting, that his arm will fall off part way through the season? They're also projecting his WHIP to be 1.23 after he's averaged 1.01 in his first two seasons. Sorry, but I'm predicting Big Alek's WAR to be a lot higher than 2.6 .
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 12:18 AM EST (#425308) #
" Irv Carter is in town visiting patients at the Holland Bloorview rehab centre. "

I hike around there occasionally. (The CNIB is nearby, where they help umpires.)

Irv Carter looks less beefy than I recall.

I always admired Chris Archer as a role model for charity work with children.

Petey Baseball - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 07:05 AM EST (#425309) #
As sad as it is, I could see a scenario later in the off-season where Hicks could end up a Blue Jay. The Yankees have got to be considering a DFA at this point (The Red Sox just did with Hosmer, who isn't as bad) and the other free agent outfield options have dried up. Are Hicks' defensive numbers bad as well?

They don't want to spend excess money, they don't want to trade prospects, and apparently don't want to trade from a position of strength to get better. I guess being risk averse is itself being risky.
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 07:57 AM EST (#425310) #
I don't think there's any chance of the Jays signing him if he's DFA. Springer, LGJ, KK, Merrifield are all better than him and he doesn't bat left handed. There's no match there.

The Jays need to address their catching so they can then sign another bat or pitcher. If they trade Kirk they can then sign someone like Brantley. If they trade Jansen then they can sign bullpen help.

If they trade Jansen then they should sign Conforto.
Chuck - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 08:09 AM EST (#425311) #
Hicks is a switch-hitter.
Chuck - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 08:45 AM EST (#425313) #
The Red Sox just did with Hosmer, who isn't as bad.

Hosmer is being paid by SD so any team, like Boston, that picks him up for a trial is not subject to having to deal with sunk cost fallacy, owing him just the league minimum. This makes it much easier, psychologically, to send him packing if he doesn't perform or if you have better options. Hosmer will land somewhere and get more chances, but will probably do some bouncing around yet.

Hicks is owed 30M and plays on a team with oft-injured outfielders, himself included. Signing Benintendi, say, might have made the team more confident in not needing Hicks as a Plan B, but as the team is currently constructed, he figures to at worst be their 4th outfielder. I'd be very surprised to see him jettisoned.

bpoz - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 09:03 AM EST (#425314) #
So most of us have closed the book on Tapia it seems.

Trading a C has not yet been addressed by Atkins very much. So there is a lot of speculation. By the end of 2023 we will know how he performed compared to the Cs that were moved by FA or trade. W Contreras seems to be the class of the group. Contreras will also be the full time St Louis C with 400+ ABs whereas Jansen will probably not do that with the Jays.
Glevin - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 09:36 AM EST (#425315) #
I would have done the Gallo contract but the Benitendi contract is insane. He's a LF with a career 109 WRC+. He's better than replacement level but not by enough to make sense for a team to go that long. Last three seasons:
Gallo:5.8 WAR
Benitendi:4.1 WAR
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 10:06 AM EST (#425316) #
Chuck you're right. I still don't think Hicks makes any sense though.

So what have we learned this offseason? That the Blue Jays should have signed Freedie Freeman last year.
Katie - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 10:28 AM EST (#425317) #
For the next six years, the Jays will be paying Berrios approximately $120 million. For the next six seasons, Rodon will get $162 million.

Rodon put up 10.5 B-R WAR (or 11.1 Fangraphs WAR) in the last two seasons. Berrios hasn't had a season of more than 2 B-R WAR in a season since 2019 and is coming off a season with negative WAR (or has had 5.1 Fangraphs WAR over the last 2 years).

I initially balked a little bit at the contract, but I'm pretty sure I'd rather have spent an extra $42 million on Rodon over having signed Berrios to the extension.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 10:39 AM EST (#425318) #
Freeman's contract (6/162) already looks puny by the standards of this off-season. And the 33-year-old just had the best season of his career by fWAR.

The move the Jays arguably should have made is offering Verlander a slightly larger contract than Houston gave him (say, 2/55 or 2/60 instead of the 2/50 contract he signed). But of course hindsight is 20/20.

I have no idea what the team should do at this point. Varsho was my ideal addition but I think that ship has sailed (at least until the summer or next off-season). Conforto might be a good acquisition but he probably wants to go somewhere where he will be an everyday outfielder/DH. Brantley is almost 36 and coming off shoulder surgery. Cueto or Hill for rotation depth -- maybe?
bpoz - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 11:57 AM EST (#425319) #
Every team has 4 playoff positions to compete for. Win their division or 3 WCs. I believe that the Jays can win one of those 4 positions in 2023. Should be a great playoff race.

greenfrog - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 12:28 PM EST (#425320) #
MLBTR (relying on a Jon Heyman article) says the Jays and Dodgers were finalists in the bidding for Yoshida.
Paul D - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 12:42 PM EST (#425321) #
Current WAR projections are about $7.5 million per WAR. That's $15 million per year for an average player
92-93 - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 12:49 PM EST (#425322) #
It's easy to prefer Rodon's contract now to Berrios' extension, but the best Rodon could get when Berrios was extended was 2/44, and rightfully so.


Berrios 57-40 3.74era 117era+ 3.79fip in 793.1ip
Rodon 24-22 3.70era 118era+ 3.94fip in 365ip

Berrios will be fine this year. Let's see how Rodon handles the big boys division and the Jays righty-heavy lineup, and if he can actually make it through consecutive seasons.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 01:10 PM EST (#425323) #
Well, there is that teensy matter of 2022, which was far and away Rodon's best season to date and arguably Berrios's worst.

Rodon's injury history is a major red flag, though.

I'm still not exactly clear on what the problem with Berrios was last year. Was he tipping his pitches? Did his FB lack movement? His K% was down significantly and other stats were up (Exit Velocity, Hard Hit%, Barrel%). We're not talking about just a BABIP aberration here.

Everything might go back to normal for him, but it might not. The truth is that none of us really knows what his 2023 season will be like.
Katie - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 02:01 PM EST (#425324) #
Berrios will be fine this year.

He'll be better than 2022. Will he be the pitcher he was in 2018 and 2019? I'm not convinced of that.

Also, Rodon's 2 year/$44 million deal was more valuable than it looks on dollar value alone, as he got the opt-out which let him do exactly what he did and opt out after another good season, but would have left San Francisco on the hook for a guaranteed second year if he had the injury issues he had earlier in his career.

John Northey - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 04:19 PM EST (#425325) #
I remember years ago Bill James used to say if a deal would've been good a year ago then odds are it is still a good idea to do it now.  A year ago Berrios finished his 5th year of 108+ ERA+ seasons while never missing a start he was scheduled for (IE: not counting his first semi-full season of 23 starts or 2020's 12 starts against him).  The big question for him is why did his numbers drop so much - I can't recall anyone on the broadcasts mentioning hints of an injury and the patterns were non-existent (a bad start or 2 each month, a good one or two each month).  6 starts in September/October - 2 of his last 3 were bad (2 IP and 5 1/3 IP allowing 6 and 5 runs respectively), but his other 3 were solid including his final (6 to 6 1/3 IP 1-3 runs each time).  As I recall he often looked like he was cruising then would have a rally start and be unable to stop it, suggesting a mental block of some kind (ie: things start to go wrong and he keeps doing whatever is causing it to happen instead of adjusting).

Rodón for 6 years?  A year ago everyone would've told you 'insanity' as over 2019-2021 he threw just 175 innings, very good innings (139 ERA+) but not enough. Before 2021 he had a 100 ERA+ over 536 IP vs a 157 ERA+ over his last 310 over the past 2 years (ages 28/29).  That raises all kinds of alarm bells in my mind.  Why did he do so much better the last 2 years vs the 6 before that?  Moving from a solid #4 to a #1 immediately after missing so much time to injury?  Could just be finding a new pitch but in an era of PED's one has to raise an eyebrow at least.  But a LH fly ball pitcher in the AL East should be interesting.  He didn't pitch against Boston, Toronto, Tampa, NYY, or the Orioles last year somehow. In 2021 he did face Boston (1 game, 5 IP 1 R), NYY (1 G 6 IP 0 R), and the Jays (2 games 10 IP 3 R).  We'll see how he does against these teams in games that matter (well other than the Yankees of course).
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 04:22 PM EST (#425326) #
Last off season the Jays moved Berrios from the 3B side of the rubber to the middle to get him more direct to the plate. This caused all kinds of issues with his release point, and it possibly lead to him tipping pitches. Late in the year they made some more adjustments and his release point tightened back up and he improved.

Hopefully with an another offseason he gets more consistent with his release point. Early reports from Puerto Rico ahead of the WBC have him in great shape. He was one of the most consistent pitchers prior to last season and if the team with a full offseason improved Stripling and Ray, I am hoping they can bring Berrios back into at least a mid rotation starter.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 05:25 PM EST (#425327) #
Swanson to the Cubs, 7/$177m. Interesting that all four of the star FA shortstops signed with an NL team.
Dr B - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 05:39 PM EST (#425328) #
Re: Jose Berrios

Some interesting discussion here:

On a different note, I don’t understand why the Jays didn’t show more interest in Stripling. They could still use another pitcher. He doesn’t have a long history of success, I guess but you don’t have to make a long commitment. He seemed to have figured it out in 2021, then got injured and was no good after and then he had, a very nice 2022.

And on another, another note. The Jays seem to have got maybe somewhat better. Teoscar, Stripling, (Tapia) out, Kiermaier, Bassit, E. Swanson in. But getting better is relative. If 50% of teams get relatively better, then 50% get relatively worse. The Jays looks like they have lost ground against the Yankees. They are still a very good team though.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 06:05 PM EST (#425329) #
Thanks, Dr B. Good article. Basically the author suggests that Berrios reduce his four-seam FB usage by 50% and throw more sinkers (his best pitch). This would be a better approach overall, given his strengths and weaknesses, and would also allow him to benefit from the Jays’ strong infield defense.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 07:04 PM EST (#425330) #
J.D. Martinez to the Dodgers for $10M for one year. At least we won't have to face him as often anymore..
uglyone - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 07:05 PM EST (#425331) #
2yr Stats

* RF Springer (33): 925pa, 135wrc+, 4.7war650
* SS Bichette (25): 1387pa, 125wrc+, 4.5war650
* 1B Guerrero (24): 1404pa, 149wrc+, 4.2war650
* DH Kirk (24): 730pa, 123wrc+, 4.0war650
* C Jansen (28): 453pa, 124wrc+, 5.7war650
* 3B Chapman (30): 1243pa, 110wrc+, 4.3war650
* LF Gurriel (29): 1034pa, 111wrc+, 1.8war650
* 2B Espinal (28): 737pa, 104wrc+, 3.7war650
* CF Kiermaier (33): 611pa, 97wrc+, 3.8war650

* UT Merrifield (34): 1270pa, 89wrc+, 2.3war650
* UT Biggio (28): 597pa, 90wrc+, 1.3war650
* C Moreno (23): 73pa, 113wrc+, 6.2war650

* SP Manoah (25): 51gms, 85era-, 5.0war32
* SP Gausman (32): 64gms, 77era-, 4.9war32
* SP Bassitt (34): 57gms, 84era-, 3.9war32
* SP Berrios (28): 64gms, 107era-, 2.3war32
* SP Ryu (36): 37gms, 104era-, 2.3war32
* SP Kikuchi (32): 61gms, 118era-, 0.3war32
* SP White (28): 46gms, 124era-, 0.5war32

* RP Romano (30): 125gms, 51era-, 1.9war65
* RP Swanson (29): 90gms, 59era-, 1.5war65
* RP Cimber (32): 149gms, 63era-, 0.9war65
* RP Bass (35): 143gms, 65era-, 0.8war65
* RP Mayza (31): 124gms, 78era-, 0.7war65
* RP Pop (26): 85gms, 88era-, 0.5war65
* RP Garcia (32): 123gms, 90era-, 0.5war65
* RP Richards (30): 115gms, 110era-, 0.1war65

Anyone else on the roster is either a tiny sample or a net negative.
ayjackson - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 07:32 PM EST (#425332) #
Gurriel will only be good for a win or two, but there'll be a three week stretch where he'll hit 20 homers and drive in 55 runs and we won't lose a game.

If we only knew when.
John Northey - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 09:13 PM EST (#425333) #
Gurriel is interesting....
2022: OPS over 800: June, July, Sept/Oct, Sub 600 May, August
2021: OPS over 800: June, August, Sept/Oct, Sub 600: April
2020: OPS by month: 804-731-1047
2019: OPS over 800: May, June, Sub 600: April, August
2018: OPS over 800: June, July Sub 600: May, August
Career: OPS over 800: June, July, Sept/Oct, In the 600's: April, May, August

Yeah, he is a mess for predicting.  Either very good (800+, often 1000+ OPS) or very bad (sub 600 OPS).  Very rare for him to be in the 700's (meh) it seems.  Type of player that drives coaches insane - you see the ability but getting it consistently is impossible.  If he every puts it all together he'll become very rich ($100+ million deal) but as is who knows what kind of deal he'll get after 2023.  For the Jays sake it'd be nice if he has a year where he puts it all together for 6 straight months, then give him a QO and watch him get an insane deal elsewhere.

For comparison lets look at Bo...
2022: 800+: May, Sept, 600-: April, all others were in the 700s, it just felt worse.
2021: 800+: April, June, July, Sept, 600-: none
2020: 667-1267-620
2019: 800+: July, August, 600-: none

2022: 800+: Apr, June, July, Sept 600-: May
2021: 800+: May, July, Aug,Sept 600-: none
2020: 1176-931-788
2019: 800+: July, Aug, Sept 600-: May
2018: 800+: April, June, Sept 600-:none

So Hernandez only twice sub 600 (both times in May), often over 800.  Bo had his first really bad month in April of 2022 and it dogged his stats all year.  Gurriel has 1-3 of those horrid months every year but also has the killer months often over 1000 OPS to make up for it which explains why despite his 117 OPS+ lifetime no one thinks of him as being that good (I honestly thought he was more in the 100-110 range before checking).
christaylor - Saturday, December 17 2022 @ 10:45 PM EST (#425334) #
I ask this in the best possible way because I enjoy watching great Guerriel and Dorfman is a great common sense sports psycholgist -- do they Jays have a Spanish speaking ABCs of Hitting person? LGJ numbers scream a sports psych not an athletic issue.
John Northey - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 10:35 AM EST (#425335) #
MLB Trade Rumors has a few tidbits - Houston looking at Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto, and Michael Brantley for their open OF slot - all 3 also good for the Jays imo  Dodgers got J.D. Martinez (phew, not going back to the Red Sox) for $10 mil.

The top 22 free agents have signed so the top ones left are Nathan Eovaldi (QO), Taylor Rogers (lots of K's closer yet just an 81 ERA+ last year weighing him down), Jurickson Profar, Brandon Drury, Andrew Chafin (might be the setup man the Jays want to make the pen much deeper), Jean Segura, Brantly, Conforto, Adam Ottavino (another solid setup man), Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Drew Rucinski covers the top 50.  By this point we are getting into a lot of 'meh'.

A few good relievers and a couple of interesting starters left plus the 3 OF'ers who could cover the LH power the Jays want.  Nice pieces but do they fit the Jays?  I think a few do, but the price will be a factor - how much do the Jays want to spend before the season gets going.  How much room do they want financially for a mid-season upgrade?  Hard to say but some of these guys might be getting anxious come late January thus become bargains.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 11:22 AM EST (#425336) #
I agree - for $12.5M, I would have also signed Stripling. But, maybe he wanted to be on the west coast? Maybe the Jays didn't want to give a 1-year opt-out?
Petey Baseball - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 01:47 PM EST (#425337) #
One thing that will benefit all pitchers on the Jays will not be having to face the Yankees lineup 11 times more than everyone else.

My point originally would have been: I'm not betting on a pitcher suddenly regaining form having to face as many tough lineups in the AL East. Then I remembered the balanced schedule, which, while I'm at it...I don't like how it includes the NL.
lexomatic - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 02:57 PM EST (#425338) #

Gurriel is interesting....2022: OPS over 800: June, July, Sept/Oct, Sub 600 May, August2021: OPS over 800: June, August, Sept/Oct, Sub 600: April2020: OPS by month: 804-731-10472019: OPS over 800: May, June, Sub 600: April, August2018: OPS over 800: June, July Sub 600: May, AugustCareer: OPS over 800: June, July, Sept/Oct, In the 600's: April, May, August

Gurriel will only be good for a win or two, but there'll be a three week stretch where he'll hit 20 homers and drive in 55 runs and we won't lose a game.

If we only knew when.

Pretty sure it WON'T be April, May, August.
Best bet June, followed by July/ Sept-Oct
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 04:02 PM EST (#425339) #
Gurriel played last year with a hamate hone injury.
uglyone - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 04:03 PM EST (#425340) #

Free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley in agreement with Astros on one-year, $12M contract, pending physical, sources tell @TheAthletic. On it: @ByRobertMurray

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 18, 2022
greenfrog - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 04:23 PM EST (#425341) #
Always the bridesmaid.
John Northey - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 05:26 PM EST (#425342) #
Maybe Brantley will be a coach here someday - sure doesn't look like he'll ever play here. Funny thing is the MLB Trade Rumors article about it says they are looking for catching help and might be chasing the Jays trio.  Somehow I doubt they'd be willing to make Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker part of the package, but that is it for LH power bats there. With Verlander leaving they don't have the starting depth to trade from there, their pen is deep but I wouldn't trade any of the 3 for relief help.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 05:35 PM EST (#425343) #
I think this is going to be our team at this point.

They’ll be better defensively, and hopefully the drop off is runs scored isn’t dramatic. A bounce back year from Vlad would more than compensate for the loss of Hernandez.
John Northey - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 06:09 PM EST (#425344) #
Agreed Shoeless.  Lets check some projections for 2023 vs 2022 for those still here... 2022-2023 OPS (BR), 2022-2023 fWAR (via FGDC projection, Steamer is the other one listed but almost identical in most cases, rarely different by more than 0.2)
Kirk: 786 - 776  3.8 - 4.4
Vlad: 818 - 878  2.8 - 5.5
Espinal: 692 - 712  2.3 - 2.2
Bo: 802 - 813  4.5 - 4.2
Chapman: 757 - 727  4.1 - 3.7
Gurriel: 743 - 756  1.0 - 1.8
Springer: 814 - 808  4.2 - 3.9
Biggio: 668 - 704  1.3 - 0.7
Jansen: 855 - 763  2.6 - 2.8
Merrifield: 769 - 689 (769 was as a Jay only) 1.5 - 1.2 (1.5 is combined Royals/Jays)
Moreno: 733 - 735  0.7 - 0.5 (projecting even less playing time in 2023 than 2022)

Interesting to look at - normally when you win 90+ you have a lot of career years but not so much last year for the Jay hitters. Hernandez was 2.4 fWAR, projected 2.3 for 2023 for what its worth.  A couple of big gainers possible in Vlad (2.7), Gurriel (0.8), and Kirk (0.6) while drops from Biggio (0.6), Chapman (0.4), Bo (0.3), and Springer (0.3).  Net 2022: 28.8 Net 2023: 30.9 - Net +2.1 or in eyeshot of Teoscar before adding in new guy Kiermaier (1.1 vs 1.2 for 2023, 649 OPS in 2022 vs 674 for 2023) which would easily push the Jays total over 2022's total while ignoring guys like Zimmer (-0.3), Tapia (0.3) and the like who netted +0.6 fWAR, Add them in plus Teoscar and you get 2022: 31.8 vs 2023: 32.1 - about as close as possible - within a Tapia of each other.
bpoz - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 06:20 PM EST (#425345) #
Suppose a prospect is good enough that he can succeed. Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Espinal. Then Romano, Manoah, Tiedemann, Quinones. Somehow the team has to make room for these players.

I don't know how that is done on a competitive team. The 1992/93 and 2015/16 teams were competitive. For the 1992/93 team Hentgen, Timlin, Sprague, D Bell were added and maybe Guzman 1991) because the old guys were probably done. Additions after they sucked (1995) S Green, Delgado etc.. were a rebuild. 2015/16 also was a rebuild. I think Gillick would have handled it better for the 1992/93 rebuild/retool than Ash.

Our current team will lose core players like Teo due to $ or something else. If $ then the replacements are the question marks. Again our old guys will break down like Ryu. Badly explained I know.

dalimon5 - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 06:25 PM EST (#425346) #
FO is definitely not done. I'll be surprised if they don't get Conforto or a LH of his caliber or higher one way or the other. I'll be surprised if they don't add 1 bat better than KK and one more pitcher better than Cimber/Kikuchi.
bpoz - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 06:43 PM EST (#425347) #
Currently I see 12 position players which includes 3 Cs. So 1 more spot available. The 13 pitchers spots seem to be occupied. The payroll may be maxed.
John Northey - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 07:18 PM EST (#425348) #
There is an old rule in baseball - if a player is ready they force the issue, you don't force it for them.  The Jays in '88 tried to force the issue to get Sil Campusano up which was a massive error in judgement by Pat Gillick.  In '92 they didn't leave a slot for Derek Bell, instead telling him he had to earn it which he didn't (just 2 games in April in the majors - then given a full shot in May/early June and he had a 572 OPS thus kept getting shots all year but ended with an 88 OPS+ that year before being traded away, had a few good years, then did operation shutdown and his career was over).  After 1992 the Jays had a few kids they made room for in Ed Sprague, Randy Knorr, and late in the season gave quick looks to Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado (20 and 21 years old then). Pat Hentgen was given a rotation slot at 24, but they were still very careful and would continue to be even as the team fell apart in '94 and '95 (with Ash guiding the team by then).

In 2015/16 we didn't see many kids mixed in but in CF we had Dalton Pompey start off, with Kevin Pillar as the LF but that switched quickly as Pillar had a great year (5.2 bWAR).  Roberto Osuna took over the closer job at 20 after a few others failed. In '16 Devon Travis finally was healthy enough to play 100+, Joe Biagini as a rule 5 pick did a solid job as a setup man but had to earn that obviously. 2019 was a rebuild year and we saw today's core get its chance - from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Biggio to Bichette and so on, but that was easy as the team stunk.  2020/21 saw Kirk get his shot, along with TellezManoah got a shot when others failed and ran with it.

So basically don't worry about kids getting a shot - the last thing a team needs to do is make room.  If a kid is ready they force it and the team trades away the vet (such as Kelly Gruber after 1992 to make room for Sprague) or most often, someone flops and a spot is open and a kid runs with it (Manoah a classic example).  I fully expect a slot to open in the rotation for Tiedemann and the other kids if/when they are ready.  I just hope the current management team keeps chasing the IFA and finds quality draft picks so we have a steady feeder system.  Especially in the 2024/25/26 window as players start leaving due to contract demands.
bpoz - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 08:05 PM EST (#425349) #
Thanks John N. For me personally I felt the high spending teams as a threat.

How are kids were going to even the odds was still uncertain. Sure Cleveland overcame that in 2022 but that was a weak division.
John Northey - Sunday, December 18 2022 @ 10:27 PM EST (#425350) #
Just for fun I was looking at The Baseball Cube and saw the size of Bassitt (6'5" 217 lbs) and got to thinking of how big the Jays rotation is getting.  Manoah 6'6" 260 lbs, Gausman 6'2" 190 lbs, Berrios 6'0" 205 lbs, Kikuchi 6'0" 200 lbs, White 6'3" 210 lbs - all 6'+, all but Gausman 200+ lbs.  Prospects: Tiedemann 6'4" 220 lbs, Robberse 6'1" 160 lbs (get some meat on that guy), Francis 6'5" 235 lbs, Kloffenstein 6'5" 243 lbs, Carter 6'4" 210 lbs, Juenger 6'0" 175 lbs.

Hmm... not as big as I thought - Bassitt and Manoah are big, as are Tiedemann, Francis, Kloffenstein, and Carter but Berrios & Kikuchi are just at 6' as is Juenger.  Generally you like starters to be big and strong (ala Roy Halladay (6'6" 225 lbs) but players like Stroman have shown that smaller guys can succeed in the majors.
mendocino - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:49 AM EST (#425351) #
From Baseball America's 2019 IFA Review "His (Robberse) lively fastball has come on as he's gotten stronger, added 20 pounds since signing to 6-foot-1, 180 pounds."
And now with the Jays having a Dietitian on every minor league staff, have to question the listed weight on roster especially the 160's after being in the organization for a few years.
SK in NJ - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 05:52 AM EST (#425352) #
The team should definitely try to add a capable LHB, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the main work in the off season has been completed and they just make some smaller moves the rest of the way (4th outfielder, etc) until the trade deadline. It really depends on 1) how much space they have left to spend, and 2) what they do with the catching situation. The trade options, for Jansen in particular, seem to be dwindling. Even if they keep all 3 catchers they should really try to add a LHB, even if it’s not in the Conforto/Brantley category (obviously Brantley no longer an option). Even someone like Peralta on the free agent market who can platoon and be a OF/DH option would improve the lineup and roster balance.
Jonny German - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:22 AM EST (#425353) #
Feels like a lot of pessimism around here regarding roster building. Personally, I'm remembering George Springer and Marcus Semien signing end of January two offseasons ago. Still lots of winter remaining.

What have we got for an over/under on number of addtions to the 40-man roster between now and spring training? 2-1/2? I'll take the over.
bpoz - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 09:52 AM EST (#425354) #
We traded for M Chapman March 16, 2022. It was a late acquisitions due to the lockout.
Glevin - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 10:47 AM EST (#425355) #
I think the Jays are more likely to add via trade than FA. Someone like Conforto would help but I think they need to move a C for something longer-term. Arizona makes the most sense still I think. I don't like MCCarthy much (look at his statcast page, all blue), Carroll is untouchable so that leaves Varsho or Thomas who would both be interesting (Varsho finished product. Thomas a bit of a gamble). Most other teams with C need (Cubs, Tigers, Rockies, don't have much talent to trade).

I wonder if the Padres would be willing to move on from Tatis. Kirk+ for Tatis is probably a pipe dream but after signing Bogaerts and Tatis' behaviour last year, who knows?

Marc Hulet - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 10:57 AM EST (#425356) #
There won't be the quality FAs kicking around in late January like in past years so you have to take that into consideration. The only way to get an impact player now is via trade... And it's been well documented how hard it's become to make impact trades.

Shoulder injuries can be really rough on hitters to come back from and, as such, there are no guarantees on Conforto but he's also not going to go somewhere he's not guaranteed to play every day to build up his value. Maybe between LF and DH the Jays can offer that... Not sure.
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:00 AM EST (#425357) #
My guess is that the team tried to acquire a controllable centerfielder from St. Louis or Arizona but were rebuffed. Then then turned to Kiermaier as a backup option.
Cracka - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:03 AM EST (#425358) #
2-1/2? I'll take the over.

I'll take the under. I don't think there are any more additions coming to the 40 via free agency - there will be a handful of non-roster invitations - Greg Bird types, defensive outfielders, AAA catchers - but not with guaranteed contracts. And I think it's more likely than not that all three catchers stay on the roster going into spring training (and maybe even the season). I don't see a reasonable deal to be made right now - Arizona isn't unlikely to trade Daulton Varsho - and if a trade is made it's likely only going to be one roster player going (a catcher) and one coming back (an outfielder). Maybe Gurriel gets moved to save a little $. That's two moves - so I'm going to stick to the under.
92-93 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:04 AM EST (#425359) #
Good point, Marc. Unless the Jays trade a C they can't offer Conforto the ABs he needs on a pillow contract.

As of this moment, the Jays have balanced their lineup by trading their 3rd best hitter for a reliever and replacing him with a glove-first CF.
Ducey - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:27 AM EST (#425360) #
And a #3 starter
bpoz - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:30 AM EST (#425361) #
Many people say that ST is meaningless in that nobody wins/loses a job in ST.

I wonder about Kikuchi/White. Pearson, Merryweather, Zulueta. Those are some of the names I like. Hatch, Thornton I don't know because they cannot seem to grab a job.

Position players are also weird. Lukes, Lopez will either sit on the bench?
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 11:50 AM EST (#425362) #
I think there will be at least one more addition to the Jay's roster, most likely an outfielder.

I saw an article by Mike Wilner and it outlined the reasons why Danny Jansen wouldn't be traded. The Jay's won/lost record was much better with Jansen catching than the other two catchers last year and more than one Jay was quoted as saying that Jansen was " the heartbeat of the team."
uglyone - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:10 PM EST (#425363) #
Atkins talking big today about still adding a legit offensive bat and being able to do this by trade or free agency.
ayjackson - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:15 PM EST (#425364) #
If the Jays don't trade a catcher, they will either send Moreno down or use him around the diamond - 2B, 3B, OF.

It seems for the better part of 5 years, bauxites have been speculating the Jays might give Moreno more exposure to other positions to either capitalize on his athleticism or get his bat out into a more sustainable position.

I'm not sure why I keep thinking that might still be the plan. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me five times....won't get fooled again. (what kind of metaphor is that when you combine a famous saying with a infamously mis-quoted saying with a 70's rock anthem?)

I had assumed for most of this offseason that Moreno would be in the plans, but now I am increasingly thinking he gets sent down.

Is he playing any winter ball?
dalimon5 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:16 PM EST (#425365) #
Let's hope he's referring to Varsho, Kepler or Reynolds and not Myers, McCutchen or Peralta.
Jonny German - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:21 PM EST (#425366) #
Good point, Marc. Unless the Jays trade a C they can't offer Conforto the ABs he needs on a pillow contract.

I’ve seen this sentiment elsewhere and I really don’t get it. There are 486 outfield starts to be made in a season - how many of those do you estimate will be made in 2023 by Springer, Kiermaier, and Gurriel? I think there’s at least 150 outfield starts still to be accounted for. Not to mention that the team has no set DH.
Glevin - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:27 PM EST (#425367) #
"Shoulder injuries can be really rough on hitters to come back from and, as such, there are no guarantees on Conforto but he's also not going to go somewhere he's not guaranteed to play every day to build up his value. Maybe between LF and DH the Jays can offer that... Not sure."

I mean Tapia got 433 PAs last year as 4th OFer so I think getting Conforto 500 in LF/RF/DH wouldn't be an issue.

The problem with moving Moreno around the diamond is that a lot of his value comes from C defense so anywhere else he plays, he will be less valuable. If the Jays can't find room for him at C, they should trade him.
SK in NJ - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:31 PM EST (#425368) #
That's good to hear from Atkins regarding his confidence that the team will add another LH OF. I would still be very surprised if the team traded Kirk or Moreno, so I'm looking at a Jansen trade if one happens at all. Or if they believe in Kepler's Statcast numbers and think he'd be able to turn things around offensively, then he's another option, and that wouldn't require trading a catcher (the Twins signed one anyway).

It's very rare that a baseball off-season has almost every top free agent sign before Christmas. Usually there would be a few big ones lurking around in January/February (typically Boras guys), but that doesn't appear to be the case this winter. Hopefully that means the trade market starts to pick up.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:32 PM EST (#425369) #
I think you guys are missing the word "guaranteed." Conforto may be able to get a guaranteed starting position somewhere else which gives him peace of mind. In Toronto he wouldn't have that. If Springer, Gurriel and KK are all healthy then he wouldn't get much playing time. Toronto also has at least two very good catchers who will be using the DH slot.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:34 PM EST (#425370) #
Word on the street seems to be that there won't be much of a trade market since teams are all valuing players almost the same so there has to be a perfect match.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:38 PM EST (#425371) #
I don’t understand the logic behind trades being down because valuations are the same. Ultimately if they are all the same you should see team trading players with more future value for players with more present value and it should be easier to line up depending on where you are in the competitive window.
85bluejay - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:44 PM EST (#425372) #
I think teams having similar valuation on players makes it easier to consummate trades and I have heard Atkins say that - most FO say they are not trying to "win" trades but get value for value and having similar values on players I view as a plus in completing trades.
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:56 PM EST (#425373) #
Another possibility: trade Moreno (or Kirk) for a better return and then extend Jansen for a few years. Jansen is still only 27 and he's a very good two-way player.
Marc Hulet - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 01:57 PM EST (#425374) #
Kepler isn't close to being a big bat even if you limited him to RH pitching. Overall, he's produced average-ish offense in all but one season (2019).

The addition of Bassitt is muted by the loss of Stripling. I'm not sold that he'll perform up to that level as a replacement in 2023... The new schedule should help, though, as it lessens the AL East factor...

I'd still love to see Otto Lopez get a shot to play 4-5 times a week... Maybe between 2B and LF.
Jonny German - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 02:02 PM EST (#425375) #
I think you guys are missing the word "guaranteed." Conforto may be able to get a guaranteed starting position somewhere else which gives him peace of mind. In Toronto he wouldn't have that.

Why not? What problem are you going to run in to if you say “Mike, if you’re healthy you’ll start 140 games between LF, RF, and DH?

A healthy Conforto is a better player than Gurriel. Kiermaier should not be starting against most lefties, and will frequently off the bench as a defensive replacement. Springer will start many games at DH and have regular rest days.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 02:11 PM EST (#425376) #
Kepler has really good stat cast numbers and was shifted a lot, I still like him as a smaller pickup.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 02:49 PM EST (#425377) #
Jonny you are saying that you don't understand why he can't play full time here then you use examples that are all assumptions.

You're assuming Springer will need rest days and be rotated. Why would he start many games at DH if he's moving to RF?

You're assuming that KK will not start against lefties because you don't think he should be. The FO may have other reasons for choosing to start him there and play him full time.

I think it's easy to see why a player who has been out of MLB for a year might want to a) sign a 1 year deal and return to market next year and b) sign somewhere where he doesn't have to worry about sharing playing time with 5 players for 4 positions.
John Northey - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 03:16 PM EST (#425378) #
Tatis would be very hard to get. With the PED issue and his general immaturity shown (motorcycle accidents) I can't see the Jays giving up what it would take to get him unless SD did a DEEP discount.
uglyone - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 04:49 PM EST (#425379) #
We want a bench full of guys who can hit and provide legit defensive value. There will be lots of need for the bench players to play.

Merrifield, Biggio, Moreno is a nice start. I don't see any reason why Moreno would be sent down. Trading one of the catchers would have to be for a great return or else it's at best a sideways move.

Ideally we get a good enough OF to push one of Gurriel or Kiermaier into more of a bench role.

Gurriel with his value contract could be used as part of a package for a better more expensive OF.
PeterG - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 05:16 PM EST (#425380) #
Moreno will be sent down if a catcher is not traded. I totally agree with Wilner that Jansen will not be dealt.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 05:34 PM EST (#425381) #
I think Moreno and Jansen will split catcher duties and Kirk will be the full time DH as currently constructed. Maybe they all get 75% playing time, and more/less based on injuries. Moreno learning how to call a staff would save big money long term over a Jansen extension.
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 05:50 PM EST (#425382) #
For all the talk about the great position the Jays are in to make a trade, I have yet to hear one good trade proposal that makes sense for both teams (assuming a two-way deal).

You could argue that Moreno for Varsho makes sense, though it might be too steep a price for the Jays to pay given that Varsho is a career 101 wRC+ hitter and has struggled against LHP. Ditto Thomas.

I imagine the challenge is that for many trade targets, players like Moreno and Tiedemann are too much to offer, while players like Orelvis and Zulueta aren’t enough.
Hodgie - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 06:09 PM EST (#425383) #
Speaking of Tiedemann, BP had this to say..

Hodgie - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 06:13 PM EST (#425384) #
And now that Glevin has me dreaming of Tatis for Christmas, I wonder if Atkins' confidence at adding an impact bat was expressed in a letter to Santa asking for a Shohei Ohtani trade once the Angels restart the dumpster fire in April.
Marc Hulet - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 06:56 PM EST (#425385) #
One of the reasons Jansen won't be traded is likely because he doesn't have as much perceived value with other teams compared to what he brings specifically to the Jays (including his knowledge of the staff and the locker room) and his lack of sustained offensive success/durability. Jansen alone just would not bring back a top player whereas Kirk or Moreno+ might.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:04 PM EST (#425386) #
Again, what about the reports of Jansen for Halsley with the Cardinals? If they weren't planning to trade Jansen then those reports wouldn't have surfaced.
PeterG - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:05 PM EST (#425387) #
It's more than that. Jansen is far and away the Jays best catcher. It's all in the numbers if not the eyesight. Everything Wilner says is correct. I can't or need not express it any better.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:24 PM EST (#425388) #
It’s actually kind of eerie how similar KK and Harrison Baders seasons were last year and for their careers.

KK: .228/.281/.369 - 0.649 OPS, 0.89 OPS+, 1.1 WAR, 63 GP
Bader: 0.250/.294/.356 - 0.650 OPS, 0.87 OPS+, 1.2 WAR, 86 GP
John Northey - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:39 PM EST (#425389) #
One free agent rarely mentioned is David Peralta - LH hitting LF who had a 109 OPS+ last year, 111 lifetime, entering his age 35 season so probably isn't getting a lot of offers, nothing long term for sure, hit 30 HR in 2018 so power is there but rarely seen since, led in triples in 2021, won a gold glove in LF in 2019.  He did play poorly in Tampa (92 OPS+) but that was just 180 PA.  Certainly worth a kick at the tires with.

Arizona's Daulton Varsho is very tempting - RF who can catch and play CF.  His 109 OPS+ is a bit lower than ideal but the 27 home runs from a LH bat would look nice.  Not a free agent until after 2026. The Trade Simulator has Varsho worth a lot more than I think most have him at with him at 74.5 vs Moreno at 53.7 as they have him as a catcher first, then OF.  Switch back to what he is (OF first, catcher only in emergencies) and his value drops a lot I'd think.  Enough to make that trade work I'd hope.  The Jays could easily mix in Gurriel without hurting the team I suspect.  And I'd love the Jays to sneak Joe Mantiply into the deal (a LH reliever who isn't a free agent until after 2026 and who walked just 6 in 60 IP last year - that would be a sweet addition to the pen).

So an outfield of Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer with all 3 able to play CF meaning 100x better defense than this year (just a slight exaggeration but only slight considering Tapia, Gurriel, and Hernandez' ... entertaining ... defense where you could see a spectacular play then a horrid one the same inning).  Only KK not under team control for 2024 and 2025, with Merrifield and Biggio backing them up, plus Nathan Lukes as a pure OF backup.  I like it.  Against a tough LH pitcher Merrifield could go in for one of Varsho or KK.  I bet the entire pitching staff would cheer it on to happen.

The infield is pretty set with Chapman-Bo-Vlad plus the mix and match at 2B with Merrifield #1, Espinal #2, Biggio #3.  Although Atkins sounds like he sees Biggio getting more playing time in 2023 by shifting around (2B/1B/RF I suspect), I expect to see Espinal at SS more often to give Bo a break (and the pitchers one too), plus time at 3B as needed to give Chapman a day off.  Merrifield will be 2B/OF mostly with the odd game at 1B/3B/DH as needed.

Catching will be Kirk/Jansen unless one of them is traded/injured in which case Moreno gets another shot.  Luis Meza is the top catching prospect after Moreno but was in rookie ball in the Dominican last year (559 OPS) as a 17 year old so a LOOOONG way away.  Makes one hesitant to trade Moreno unless the return is a 'wow' (Varsho is excellent, and his ability to cover the plate if needed is a big plus but is he enough of a wow to justify it?).
PeterG - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:57 PM EST (#425390) #
How about Zach Britton ss a catching prospect? Although playing 3 positions last season, the most games were at catcher. I admit to not knowing of his defensive capabilities but it certainly seems he can hit as was shown in his excellent AFL season.
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 07:58 PM EST (#425391) #
Some teams (like Oakland) seem to be amenable to considering potential trades. Arizona seems like it might be one of those teams that are hard to trade with.
PeterG - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 08:09 PM EST (#425392) #
meant to say Britton as a catching prospect
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 08:16 PM EST (#425393) #
One drawback to keeping all three catchers is that you probably want Moreno to play most days (ideally hitting around .330 with power and defence) and generally stick to one position — most likely C. Having him play part-time on the big-league roster as a generalist or shuttling him back and forth between Buffalo and Toronto doesn’t seem ideal for his development.
uglyone - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 08:21 PM EST (#425394) #
"I think Moreno and Jansen will split catcher duties and Kirk will be the full time DH as currently constructed."

yeah pretty much.

Spot and injury fill in duty at catcher for Kirk. Especially since everyone thinks he was tired out by the end of the year as is.
greenfrog - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 08:29 PM EST (#425395) #
Makes sense as long as the pitchers like throwing to Moreno and he can learn to call an effective game. Kirk did a pretty good job behind the plate last year.
John Northey - Monday, December 19 2022 @ 10:40 PM EST (#425396) #
I don't know about Kirk being a full-time DH. He'll catch all of Manoah's starts almost certainly, as the two of them really work well together. That leaves 4 days out of 5 for 2 catchers to split. Jansen has to be catching new guy Bassitt (7 pitches ala Ryu - you want your most veteran guy catching that). So that leaves #5 (mix/match), Berrios, and Gausman. Gausman's OPS against were 437 Collins (27 IP), 597 Kirk (62 IP), 821 Jansen (68 IP), 858 Moreno (17 IP). Interesting that he did a LOT better with Kirk than Jansen and had the most trouble with Moreno. Berrios was 768 Kirk (119 IP), 829 Jansen (49 IP), 1426 Moreno (4 IP). Again, Kirk the best matchup. Kikuchi: 775 Heineman (17 IP), 788 Jansen (44 IP), 819 Kirk (21 IP), 1044 Moreno (14 IP), 1074 Collins (4 IP) - yeah, they tried everyone with him and none did great. Spread between Kirk & Jansen wasn't much (31 OPS points). White was 720 Jansen (27 IP), 1065 Kirk (12 IP), 1088 Moreno (4 IP).

So basically the only guy who Jansen had a visibly better OPS against with vs Kirk was White, the only other starter was Kikuchi (barely). So this talk of Kirk being a DH makes zero sense to me as he is still improving behind the plate and of the starters still here only the worst ones did better with Jansen than him. With Moreno they all had issues though suggesting the Jays might be wanting to trade him before the league figures out he has issues behind the plate (his strong arm helps hide it, plus teams often figure they can teach game calling or just do it from the dugout it seems). Suddenly I'm not as excited about Moreno if it looks like he will need to move from behind the plate. If he was strong you'd expect that some starter would've done well with him by dumb luck if nothing else. Instead his OPS against was 858 with Gausman (worst on the team), Berrios 1426 (worst again), Kikuchi 1044 (2nd worst to Collins, a DH), White again over 1000 with Moreno doing the worst. FYI: Manoah only had Kirk (191 IP - 582 OPS) and Jansen (6 IP 580 OPS) catch him. 2 points of OPS is not even worth mentioning imo.

So basically Kirk (outside of health) should be the #1 catcher it seems with Jansen as the backup mostly catching Bassitt and the #5's. Moreno should be in AAA or traded. Yeah, probably reading too much into the small sample sizes but like I said, dumb luck should've lead to Moreno in his limited innings having one pitcher click with him if he was ready to catch at the ML level. In AAA where Moreno was mostly the only starting pitcher sub 3.50 ERA with 10+ starts was Casey Lawrence (5 guys qualified by that 10 start rule - Bowden Francis [3.93 ERA in '21, 6.59 in '22], Thomas Hatch [4.04 ERA in '21, 4.67 in '22], Shaun Anderson [2.70 in '21, 3.58 in '22], and Nick Allgeyer [5.34 in '21, 5.44 in '22]) so outside of Lawrence all the guys who started a lot did worse in '22 than '21. Could be coincidence but I don't like the pattern we're seeing here. FYI: Lawrence went from 4.40 to 2.79 at age 34 - in the majors his OPS against was Jansen (286 2 IP), Kirk (984 4 IP), Moreno (999 12 IP). Same pattern even with a guy he must have had success with in AAA.

I kept hoping to find something saying Moreno was showing signs of being a REALLY good catcher somewhere but the more I look the less I like. Maybe trading him for a ML hitter at this point would be wise on the Jays part. Problem is other teams have someone who is paid to do what I just did for fun so they should find what I did and have far better data to back it up one way or the other. Still a few months left until the season starts so lots of chances for a deal. Just have to hope someone out there LOVES Moreno and wants him badly enough to give the Jays a LH power hitter.
Glevin - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 10:24 AM EST (#425397) #
I also wonder if Padres might be willing to trade Trent Grisham for Jansen.
Chuck - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 10:54 AM EST (#425398) #
Grisham for Jansen

Not redundant after signing Kiermaier?

Cracka - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 11:29 AM EST (#425399) #
The Trade Simulator has Varsho worth a lot more than I think most have him at with him at 74.5 vs Moreno at 53.7 as they have him as a catcher first, then OF.

Interesting observation, especially because Arizona doesn't think he's a catcher anymore. He didn't start at C after June 9th and didn't put on the pads at all after late July. I think he's officially an "outfielder/emergency 3rd catcher" at this point. And while this decreases his theoretical trade value, it might benefit his overall offense. He'll enter Spring Training as an OF, not a C, which relieves him of a significant set of responsibilities (e.g. catching bullpens, learning pitchers, pitcher/catcher meetings). And he should enter the regular season as a literal "everyday" player for the first time in his career. I actually don't think Arizona is going to trade him for these reasons - they see the potential upside of him not being a catcher anymore.
Ducey - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 11:31 AM EST (#425400) #

I am a little confused by your comments on the C's.

You would expect Moreno to struggle with game calling as a mid season rookie call up. You would also expect that to improve with experience.

I dont see how you can take much from small sample sizes with scrubs in AAA where again he only played 62 games and likely would not be familiar with the league/ hitters/ pitchers.

He threw out 41% of would be MLB base stealers. Kirk 25%. Jansen 26%

Arm strength and pop times are going to be more important with the bigger bases. The recent MLBTraderumours post on the Jays indicates that Kirk's pop times are not good. And there is a concern about his athleticism as he ages. Of course he can just flat out hit. But this profile does not scream catcher of the future to me. He is likely to wind up in the lineup for his bat, not his D. He is limited to essentially one position or DH as you dont see a lot of 5'8" 1B.

Moreno is athletic, can throw out runners, and has consistently hit around .300. I dont see how you can be down on him. He seems to check off all the boxes except power and experience, both of which should come. I'd be very reluctant to give up on him.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 11:32 AM EST (#425401) #
If Atkins talked about adding a big bat that is an interesting statement. I always keeping hoping he will say meaningless stuff. He has become good at that. So why would he stray from that successful ploy? Hopefully a mistake on his part.

But if there is some substance to this I will speculate.

1) We receive package A, B, C for package A, B, C. 1 of our Cs is possibly in our package or a hot prospect.

2) FA A, B, C. If SF said to Correa that Judge is our #1 target and you are #2/3 then that is a method to "keep interest". Maybe Atkins is doing that, in which case the announcement will be made today or tomorrow. Atkins should not be playing marketing games with the fan base. The Teo trade could blow up in his face which would be bad enough. Atkins said a lot of nice things about Teo after the trade and Teo said how much he liked playing for Toronto. That is mutual respect and professionalism.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 11:44 AM EST (#425402) #
Varsho's O was way ahead of C Kelly & J Herrera. Kelly and Herrera were black holes in the lineup. I am guessing that Varsho's D at C was pretty bad because his O as a C would have been very good which would have made the lineup much stronger.
Joe - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 12:12 PM EST (#425403) #
Sorry for the brief downtime, and if anybody's comment got overwritten. Doing some "engine room" stuff!
uglyone - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 12:54 PM EST (#425404) #

Here's Mark Grimes (disgraced former right-wing city councillor) texting Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro "We knocked out ActiveTO today", to which Shapiro replied "Excellent. Appreciate your leadership on that"

— ℳatt (@matttomic) December 20, 2022
lexomatic - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 01:45 PM EST (#425405) #

Here's Mark Grimes (disgraced former right-wing city councillor) texting Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro "We knocked out ActiveTO today", to which Shapiro replied "Excellent. Appreciate your leadership on that"

— ℳatt (@matttomic) December 20, 2022

I wouldn't be surprised if Tory wasn't still actually involved. I seem to recall lots of ink about Grimes being part of Tory's team. But whatever, it's done.

Re Moreno trade, it's a shame the cubs don't have anyone close suitable, but if you're gonna trade him, maybe there's a fit there, like Alcantara, (power ceiling) or Owen Caissie (L Power) as low level OF and  Hendricks for 5 filler  or something. Definitely need something more. But that would push the window if you can't use Moreno now.
Joe - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 01:50 PM EST (#425406) #
So, basically, Shapiro got mad that he couldn't drive on the Lakeshore from wherever on the west end that he lives, and got a disgraced councillor to write a letter on his letterhead to help kill it.

Old white men gotta old white man.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 02:23 PM EST (#425407) #
Glevin - an interesting idea, but with KK signed I assume that means the Jays had checked into that and didn't like it. The Trade Simulator says Jansen is worth more than Grisham (by 3, so not much). Grisham is a free agent after 2025 which is looking like it might be the reset year for the Jays as Vlad-Bo-Biggio are all free agents after 2025 as is Bassitt, Romano, and Mayza. That is a LOT of significant players to deal with in one offseason, so obviously the Jays will try not to add to that pile unless they want to do an Expos 1994 offseason that year.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 02:58 PM EST (#425408) #
I'm not so ready to 'give up' as just looking at the raw stats I see a guy who seems to have the tools but has a ways to go on the game calling which is becoming more and more important and is very hard to measure.

Kirk in 2020 - with Roark 926 OPS against, but Jansen was 1128 in more PA. Robbie Ray 754 with Kirk, over 900 with McGuire (Jansen was good though 568), 3 others caught him and were 900+ OPS against too. Shoemaker 657 with Kirk, 933 with Jansen. Yeah, very small sample sizes (2020 was weird).

2018 Jansen's rookie year: sucked with Estrada (1304), was OK with Sanchez (823 was worse than Martin & Maile but better than McGuire), was good with Borucki (639 OPS vs Martin's 788). So just doing a quick sample I see

That is what I expected from Moreno - a pitcher or two where the stats said 'he did well with Moreno' even if it means little. The fact NO ONE did well with him is a red flag - might be a minor one, but it is there.

Kirk in my mind is the Mike Piazza of this era. A guy who gets a poor rap on defense but actually is quite good at it. Note: Piazza's teams often won ERA titles despite his sub 20% caught stealing rate - if we had framing stats for his era I suspect he was damn good at it, he was found to be very good at preventing wild pitches and passed balls when dug into. The biggest thing for catchers though is making pitchers feel they can throw anything at any time and to be able to read when their pitcher has 'it' and doesn't and adjust from there. Ideally that would be less important as more in-game stats are tracked (seeing if the fastball has movement, if his arm is slightly down, etc. - things that only catchers would be able to tell in the past) but for now all of that is still critical and Kirk clearly has it given he was Ray's personal catching in his Cy Young season and was Manoah's when he made the top 3. Anyone who says Kirk is a poor catcher I'd dispute strongly with, but if you want to argue he can't catch 100+ games a year I could see the case. Thus the need for a good #2 which Jansen is. Now, will Moreno become a solid #1 someday? Maybe. But everything I see says he isn't there yet and the Jays are a team trying to win it all NOW. So Moreno for now should be in AAA perfecting the craft while Kirk & Jansen lead the current team to the playoffs. When injuries happen (as they do) Moreno will get more shots this year, and next winter will be the big challenge if all 3 are here by then.

Dang, the more I type, the more I figure the Jays won't trade any of the 3.
Kasi - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 03:10 PM EST (#425409) #
I agree with you John that Kirk is underrated. The only issue with him is his health/stamina. He would be an incredibly valuable catcher if he performed like first half last year. But he broke down with his conditioning. So I have no idea how many games he can catch. As a pure DH type he is much less valuable. I just hope they can get him to do 90 catching, 50 DH. I’d be okay with that but I doubt he’ll ever catch more than 100 games in a season.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 03:50 PM EST (#425410) #
ok, forget "full time DH" for Kirk.

Instead, let's say "split the C and DH slots pretty evenly between Kirk, Jansen, and Moreno".
uglyone - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 03:59 PM EST (#425411) #
and yes, all their bats are good enough for the DH slot.

Fangraphs Depth Charts Projected wRC+

* 1. Guerrero 161
* 2. Kirk 141
* 3. Springer 132
* 4. Bichette 129
* 5. Jansen 120
* 6. Gurriel 116
* 7. Moreno 113
* 8. Chapman 111
* 9. Espinal 106
* 10. Biggio 106
* 11. Merrifield 98
* 12. Kiermaier 86

2yr wRC+

* 1. Guerrero 149
* 2. Springer 135
* 3. Bichette 125
* 4. Jansen 124
* 5. Kirk 123
* 6. Moreno 113
* 7. Gurriel 111
* 8. Chapman 110
* 9. Espinal 104
* 10. Kiermaier 97
* 11. Biggio 90
* 12. Merrifield
scottt - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 04:20 PM EST (#425412) #
Stripling and Ryu were much better with Jansen, but that doesn't really add up to anything now.

Manoah competed for the Cy Young pitching exclusively to Kirk.
Gausman was twice as good with Kirk than with Jansen.
Berrios was also better with Kirk.
Kikuchi was better with Jansen, not that he was good, just not horrible.

The pen is divided. Garcia, Bass, White, Cimber were better with Jansen.
Romano, Mayza, Richards were better with Kirk.

I could see Kirk being pulled from the late innings for another catcher.
No point in him running the bases after the 7th.
Moreno was much better with the relievers than with the starters, incidentally.

I could see the Jays dangling Jansen if a catcher gets hurts on a competitive team.
Right now, he seems to have no trade value.
McGuire was dropped for whoever they could get, which funny enough brought 3 catchers on the roster.
McGuire is now the regular in Boston. They like his defense. They like his left bat.
They think he can hit if giving regular ABs.

bpoz - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 04:31 PM EST (#425413) #
If all 3 Cs are kept then Moreno's highest value which is a C is wasted in 2023. The D part as a C because he will play some DH/IF/OF.

SS Moreno's O is about equal to Gurriel and Chapman if I have understood UO's numbers. IMO Gurriel had a bad 2022 on O due to his wrist injury. Moreno may or may not be fully recovered from his hand injury from 2021. As well he missed ST and played as a rookie in 2022 with a lot of off days. Should I give Moreno any slack for 2022 because he was learning a higher level of baseball being in the ML?

Lets conclude Moreno, Chapman and Gurriel will all be about equal in O for 2023 and it will be relatively weak O.

The lineup will have 4 very good O players in Guerrero, Kirk, Springer and Bichette. KK, Merrifield, Biggio and Espinal we can say are all weak at O and therefore another big bat would be helpful. So no Zimmer level O at the moment.

Kasi - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 04:31 PM EST (#425414) #
The main advantage Kirk has over the other catchers and I can’t find the article on it is Framing. Jansen might call a good game but his glove is noisy. Kirk is calm and that leads to more strikes. I can see why that would be especially valuable with someone like Manoah who is a bit wild as is.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 04:36 PM EST (#425415) #
I like the idea of splitting C/DH with Kirk/Jansen with Moreno mixed in with LF/3B/etc. time. But the challenge is how to do it when you want Moreno to get reps behind the plate. IMO that is why he needs to be in AAA for the first half at least or be traded given where the Jays are in the success cycle. This will be a challenge if all 3 are here come April. A good challenge, but still a challenge. Fangraqphs projects Moreno to hit 267/327/414 - 113 wRC+ which would be very solid for a LF/3B/DH, let along a catcher. Jansen 238/317/456 120 wRC+, Kirk 285/371/467 141 wRC+. All 3 are fine as DH's with those numbers. With Springer moving to RF for the most part while KK takes over CF he should need less DH time hopefully.

My big hope is the Jays have pushed Kirk and Vlad to get more fit for 2023. Get both of them in top condition and lord knows what this team could see on offense and defense from them (how does Vlad do the splits given his size? Ouch!). Same for Jansen given his regular injuries. But yeah, I could see the 3 of them splitting DH/C and being backups elsewhere as needed. LF could be a dogs breakfast in 2023 although Gurriel will be given it again (projected 116 wRC+) despite the high odds of his stinking up the joint in April given his past performance. Hmmm... if the Jays can get that LH OF bat then trade Gurriel for whatever you can get and have new bat platoon with Moreno in LF, Jansen & Kirk mostly share catching/DH duties with Moreno catching when a RH pitcher is against the Jays and it isn't Manoah or Bassitt pitching. Try for no more than 70 games behind the plate for anyone. Last year Moreno caught 70 games and that is his all-time high. He has caught by year 24-32-54-15 (2020 winter league)-45 (minors plus AFL)-70. Total of just 240 games caught, of course, Kirk has just 256 games caught between all levels (more in majors than minors). So neither has a ton of experience. Jansen caught 391 in the minors plus 20 in the AFL as a point of reference.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 06:23 PM EST (#425416) #
I asked ChatGPT to come up with a strategy for the Blue Jays to win the WS in 2023. Here's what it came up with:

There are many factors that contribute to a team's success in baseball, and it is difficult to create a specific strategy that will guarantee success. However, here are a few general suggestions that could potentially help the Toronto Blue Jays improve their chances of winning the World Series in 2023:

1. Build a strong roster: This involves acquiring top talent through the draft, free agency, and trades, as well as developing and nurturing the talent already within the organization.

2. Develop a cohesive team culture: This means creating a positive and supportive environment where players can thrive and work together towards a common goal.

3. Emphasize strong fundamental play: This includes things like solid defense, smart baserunning, and efficient offense.

4. Foster a strong bullpen: A team's relief pitchers can often be the difference between winning and losing close games. Building a deep and reliable bullpen can be crucial to success.

5. Have a strong manager and coaching staff: A team's leadership can play a significant role in its overall performance. It is important to have a manager and coaching staff who are capable of making smart strategic decisions and effectively communicating with and motivating players.

6. Stay healthy: Injuries can be a major factor in a team's success or failure. Ensuring that players are physically prepared and take care of their bodies can help prevent injuries and keep the team at full strength throughout the season.
Nigel - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 06:49 PM EST (#425417) #
I agree that if they are going with three C's next year then, based on last year's usage, Kirk is likely to be a DH a vast majority of the time. It's an incredibly inefficient use of resources though. Take a 3.5-4 WAR C and make him a 1.5-2 WAR DH? That's a luxury this roster just can't afford. It would make a ton of sense if Kirk was a below average defensive C - he isn't.
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 07:05 PM EST (#425418) #
I’m cool with the FO planning for a 3 catcher scenario. It’s not ideal, but no roster is. But more good players on the roster is a good thing. Depth in a critical position, the opportunity to work Moreno in slowly, the chance for optimal tandems. All positives.

Not to mention that they need to get value in return, and slow playing the market makes sense to me

Glevin - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 07:07 PM EST (#425419) #
"Grisham for Jansen
Not redundant after signing Kiermaier?"

Kiermeier is fine playing most of the time but he will get hurt and is hardly elite anyhow. Jays need a longer term answer and Grisham isn't a FA until 2026. You can DH Springer and Gurriel a bunch and have a very good OF D. After this season, Jays only have Springer under contract for next season in the Of and no Of prospects close to the majors.
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 07:09 PM EST (#425420) #
Greenfrog, now I know where Shapiro gets his talking points
soupman - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 10:47 PM EST (#425421) #
those Kirk and Vlad projections are...optimistic. can't say i share that optimism.
soupman - Tuesday, December 20 2022 @ 10:49 PM EST (#425422) #
Atkins has clearly been using this in alpha for years.
mathesond - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 06:11 AM EST (#425423) #
Say, how 'bout that Carlos Correa saga?
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 06:23 AM EST (#425424) #
WOW. How bad does it feel to be a Giants fan right now?
Chuck - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 06:28 AM EST (#425425) #
Correa saga

Somewhat reminiscent of when ARod was traded to Boston only for the deal to be nixed, and then he ended up a Yankee instead. Correa, like ARod, figures to move to third base on a Gotham-based team that already has a shortstop. Jeter and ARod had been friendly, if not friends, though that relationship only soured once they became teammates. Lindor and Correa are apparently friends at the moment, fellow countrymen and all.

Are the Mets not going to also subject Correa to a physical? Will they not find what the Giants' doctors found?

Chuck - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 06:30 AM EST (#425426) #
How bad does it feel to be a Giants fan right now?

If he has not yet put pen to paper, Dansby Swanson might want to give his agent a call. Could be his value has just gone up.

bpoz - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:48 AM EST (#425427) #
I agree that none of our OF prospects are close to the majors to be useful in 2023. Dasan Brown and G Martinez will be breaking in 2024 possibly.

However by mid 2023 Barger has a chance to make it. 200 ABs in AAA will tell us something. There are a lot of pitchers that are almost ready. So they may graduate by mid year.

I believe that Atkins is not counting very much on help from the minors. This is a smart/cautious philosophy.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:53 AM EST (#425428) #
It's also a momentous decision for 28-year-old Correa, who could now be a third baseman for the rest of his career. That was always an eventual possibility for him (given his size), but it's a downgrade for him in the short/medium term.
mathesond - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 08:31 AM EST (#425429) #
well, if he's got a 12-year contract, not sure how the move to 3rd impacts his earning potential.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 08:34 AM EST (#425430) #
I wasn’t referring to his earning potential, but rather his presumed career preference to be a shortstop. Not everything is about money!
bpoz - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 08:43 AM EST (#425431) #
NYM were a 101 win team in 2022. On paper they have become stronger. They are probably perceived as this off seasons winner.
mathesond - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 09:19 AM EST (#425432) #
I suspect if he's not ready to play 3rd, he wouldn't have signed with a team that's invested a $341M contract with a SS. (Assuming it isn't about the money - after all, if it was about the money, would he have opted out of his contract with the Twins?)
Cracka - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 12:06 PM EST (#425433) #
Are the Mets not going to also subject Correa to a physical? Will they not find what the Giants' doctors found?

The Mets will subject him to a physical, but it seems they've already decided to roll the dice on him for 12 years. Buster Olney reported last off-season that Correa had lower back issues (like when he was shut down in 2019) that were scaring some teams off -- so this shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone. Perhaps Correa has some disc degeneration - unlikely to impact him in the short-term but a definitely concern in his late 30s. The Giants did their math and decided that the long-term financial risk was too great. The Mets did their math and decided the risk is worth it. There's no precedent for this in baseball, but something similar happened in the NFL in 2006 when the Miami Dolphins courted Drew Brees but didn't end up signing him due to a shoulder injury. Brees signed with the Saints and played for 15 seasons as one of the all-time greatest NFL QBs, while the Dolphins spent 15 years searching for their next starting QB. The Mets obviously have deep pockets, so this seems like a prudent risk.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 12:39 PM EST (#425434) #
The Mets owner has so much money that this is just a vanity project for him. He will take the injury risk. Spend, spend, spend.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 12:50 PM EST (#425435) #
I think every free agent has a different mix of motivations for where they choose to sign. Money is obviously an important factor (often the paramount factor). But there can be other ones. As we've seen with Bichette, holding down a premium position like SS can be very important to a player. And before he signed with Toronto, Kiermaier took pains to make sure that Springer was OK with playing RF in 2023.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 01:00 PM EST (#425436) #
The Mets have a talented roster but they could run into trouble if Scherzer and Verlander experience some injuries/decline and fail to perform well in the postseason (as was the case with Scherzer in 2022). They will be 39 and 40 years old at that point in 2023.
Chuck - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 03:49 PM EST (#425437) #
The Mets owner has so much money that this is just a vanity project for him.

Indeed. A d-bag hedge fund manager has got endless supplies of ego and cash to flaunt. He'd make for a scummy dinner guest but a hell of an owner of a team you cared about.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 04:02 PM EST (#425438) #
The Mets are a toy for Cohen. He has so much money and doesn't care about the CBT or any other tax. He's basically a diehard fan with billions. He'll pay what he has to in order to win and/or attract the best players. Baseball would be better if there were 30 Steve Cohen's in ownership positions, but I can't imagine the other owners in reality are too happy with what he's doing.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 04:03 PM EST (#425439) #
A smart move by Correa to sign quickly for a good deal and not let the gossip about his physical start to permeate the landscape and likely hurt his value - also not too many deep pocketed suitors left - It may sting a little that his fellow Puerto Rican Lindor has the bragging rights to a better deal while also keeping the coveted shortstop position. Cohen has all the money (and some dubious ethics) and he wants the Mets to help make him the king of New York. I wonder if owners may become wary of letting the super rich who can spend like Cohen & Steve Balmer (Clippers) into their club
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 04:36 PM EST (#425440) #
I think the crazy FA contracts we've seen this off-season is going to create even more of an incentive for small and mid-market teams to build robust farm systems and hold on to their better prospects. If the superrich teams are poaching most of the top free agents, the other teams will have to rely even more on internal (controllable) talent to compete.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 05:17 PM EST (#425441) #
Seeing the Mets go crazy has to impact the Jays and other clubs who are top 10 in payroll but not willing to go insane like the Mets are. Pete Alonso is their 1B who becomes a free agent in the 2024/25 offseason. With a 140 OPS+ lifetime after his age 27 season, he'll be entering his age 30 season as a free agent. Odds are by then the Mets will have signed Ohtani (I fully expect them to go nuts trying to sign him next winter - $50+ mil a year for 10 years). That would mean, should they do both sign Ohtani and keep Alonso long term that they would not be a destination for Vlad or Bo most likely. Their 2B is Jeff McNeil (128 lifetime OPS+, 140 last year, free agent 24/25 offseason after his age 32 season) given how 2B age very poorly the Mets would be smart to let him go at that point so they might have a spot for Bo the next year but I can't see them leaving a slot open for a year or going for a short term solution.

So how does this impact the Jays? Bo & Vlad will both be after more money after this nutty winter, Bo more determined than ever to become a free agent but who won't have a SS under long term control by then? These 10+ year deals mess it up for guys like him - Mets have Lindor & Correa, Phillies have Turner, Padres Bogaerts, Cubs Swanson leaving the Yankees (ouch) and others like the Tigers who have been known to spend (I don't see Baez as a block to them getting Bo). It'll be interesting to see if the Jays do make a long term deal but right now I'd bet against it with either guy. Odds are all this winter did was make the core more expensive and the need to keep chasing top international players high.
grjas - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 05:45 PM EST (#425442) #
Cohen’s actions are making the league look like a joke. What’s next? Musk getting bored of Twitter, buying a team and spending $2 Billion dollars on payroll by outbidding everyone for the top 10 free agents? I pity fans of small market teams.

I know more than a few people who have stopped watching the sport because the salaries have gotten totally out of hand and I may well be next. The terms as well as dollars have become ludicrous despite the sport becoming more and more dominated by younger, fitter players who can hit or throw 100 mph fastballs. Hopefully a lot of these ridiculous contracts become albatrosses in a very few year, so some measure of sanity might return.

The only thing that might get me as excited as the Jays winning the Series, is if the Mets fall flat on their faces.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 05:48 PM EST (#425443) #
Agreed John N. Waves of prospects.

I am looking forward to the prospect list in the next month. I checked Scott Mitchell to see if he has produced a list. Not yet.

Leo Jimenez has the elite D for a SS/2B. Orelvis and Barger are 2 others. All have to do it in the ML.

This offseason has seen us improve the D and pen. The rotation seems the same. The O is still a mystery to me as is the rule changes.

2024 will be a bigger puzzle to solve. Most of the OF will be gone as well as M Chapman. I don't know about the pen.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:11 PM EST (#425444) #
I agree the Mets have made a mockery of this years free agency.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:13 PM EST (#425445) #
The Mets are just the new Steinbrenner Yankees of old. This is not new... We're just seeing inflation and a new old, white rich guy.

Thankfully they're in the NL this time...
mathesond - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:19 PM EST (#425446) #
I agree, it is a shame that certain owners are paying players top salary rather than pocketing the money. Whatever happened to union-busting capitalism anyway?
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:34 PM EST (#425447) #
I don’t mind the players earning big money, I just wish owners would keep the tickets and concessions more reasonable so that I would be more inclined to go. I don’t like that they’ve turned attending a game into a “premium experience”, and try bringing your family more than on once.

I just feel like regular people are getting priced out of the games, and I hate it and I think it’s bad for the sport long term. The NBA and NHL in this city are the same.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 07:37 PM EST (#425448) #
I don’t think free markets applies here this is a personal project and market disruption.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 08:03 PM EST (#425449) #
For fun lets look at ticket prices....

1992: via Reddit but I can confirm via my own copies (was just too lazy to dig them up). Top price $17.50, lowest $4. For a team that would win the World Series with the highest payroll in baseball (around $50 mil iirc). Using the Inflation Calculator the $17.50 seats should be $31.82 now, the $4 seats $7.27.
2022: For an April mid-week game vs the Tigers seats behind home plate are $60.70 right now (sec 120-122), $15.60 for nosebleeds (section 510). $106 for the TD Clubhouse seats (second deck behind home plate)
2022: vs Yankees: $86.50 behind home plate, $21.90 nosebleeds, none of those TD Clubhouse seats left.

Clearly prices have shot well past inflation by about 100%+ depending on opponent. Very tempted to take the kids to an April game given the lower prices. Roof would be closed so we wouldn't freeze (ah the memories of Exhibition Stadium and old Tigers Stadium and freezing at games). FYI: Checked the Tigers and no tickets for sale yet unless you buy season tickets.

If you want to go to NY to see the Jays play the Mets it is $29 - $259.50 US per seat depending on where you want to sit. Makes sense they'd be charging through the nose now. FYI: The Mets had about 90k fewer fans at their games overall than the Jays in 2022 despite winning over 100 games.
Chuck - Wednesday, December 21 2022 @ 09:33 PM EST (#425450) #
I just wish owners would keep the tickets and concessions more reasonable so that I would be more inclined to go

Owners of everything everywhere charge what the market will bear. It shall ever be thus. Just my recollections from Econ 101 back in the day.

bpoz - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 08:33 AM EST (#425451) #
NYM and others spending a lot does not bother me. Lets see how they perform on the field.
Paul D - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 09:12 AM EST (#425452) #
If only the Mets could win by under paying their young players, like the moral teams do!

(and the Mets are essentially in Zips projections with Atlanta for wins, they are far from guaranteed a world series)
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 09:15 AM EST (#425453) #
On MLB radio they created an anology where what Cohen spent on free agents compared his net worth is equivalent to somebody having $100,000 in their bank account spending $660. This is a nothing compared to his overall wealth.
dalimon5 - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 09:28 AM EST (#425454) #
I love how someone has come in and outspent the big spenders. MLB needed a shake up and if this guy can help to show everyone how profitable it is to own a baseball team then hopefully it means more moguls and less corporations. I'd rather there be one big bad evil empire instead of 4 or 5 NYY, BOS, LAD, CHC, etc always getting all the free agents. It makes things more competitive for the Jays as well since there is less chance all the top free agents go to BOS and NYY.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 10:17 AM EST (#425455) #
I agree that this trend could be beneficial to the Jays at times. It cuts both ways, though. The Jays have been priced out of a number of good players this off-season (Verlander, Nimmo, Senga, Yoshida) because of the market-setting moves by teams like the Mets and Rangers.

As a corporate-owned team, the Jays are probably going to have to play in the "rational space" taken up by free agents like Bassit and Kiermaier and Brantley. The front office will rarely, if ever, be able to make a compelling case for a Turner- or Nimmo-type signing and they're almost always going to get outgunned in the competition for short-term, high AAV contracts (think Scherzer and Verlander).
dalimon5 - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 10:31 AM EST (#425456) #
Yeah I'd agree with that assessment greenfrog, which is what makes the impending renewals/trades with Vlad, Bo and Manoah so interesting. It will literally tell us everything we need to know about the FO regarding this exceptional situation over the next 3/4 years where you have not one or two but three! elite players at the beginning of their careers. If they don't resign one of them AND get GREAT returns for the other two then I will be very disappointed. If they resign them all and overpay I will be disappointed. Ideally I would like to see them resign 2 of them and trade the other for a real haul. Manoah has to be a no brainer to resign. Seems to me like the FO is trying to let time decide for them which of Bo and Vlad to resign and so far it would appear that this strategy will back fire for them.
bpoz - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 11:26 AM EST (#425457) #
Good point dalimon5. It would seem that we will lose most/all of our good young players when they reach FA. They would rightly expect to cash in on their youth and success.

Bo could go to Texas as a FA or trade for example. Seager will be 29 in April 2023 and Semien just turned 32. IF is our strength. Leo Jimenez needs to hit better. He may already have better D than Bo. Barger may be close to ready. If he shows that he cannot improve any more at AAA at some time in 2023 then a promotion should happen. Same for Orelvis. So there is something on our farm. Bo leaving and us getting a draft pick is not a lot IMO.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 11:37 AM EST (#425458) #
I got to wonder if the whole " playing in Canada " thing is still hurting the Jays with regard to signing free agents, especially after the covid years where the team was a travelling circus, ending up with home games in three different cities.

I also don't know if can be good for baseball if one team is spending more in luxury tax than the individual payrolls of 10 or 11 of the lower spending clubs. It's fans of those teams I feel sorry for. Then again, money doesn't always buy happiness, but you might be able to rent it for a while.
soupman - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 02:02 PM EST (#425459) #
the field they play on destroys bodies. other than springer who is moving off his position after barely a year, the FO has mostly spent on pitchers. players will go where they're paid (more times than not), but it's bad business to sign 13 year deals with guys that are going to give you one or two years of health before your field cripples them.
Ducey - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 03:58 PM EST (#425460) #

Most of the players (infielders, baserunners, hitters, pitchers) spend most of their time on dirt.

The turf is quite good nowadays. Its not the old carpet on concrete.

And Springer's biggest problem was his elbow.

I doubt any reluctance to sign in Toronto has much to do with the turf. The Raptors face much the same thing. I doubt its the wood on their floor that keeps Labron from playing for them.
John Northey - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 04:07 PM EST (#425461) #
There are always teams that no one wants to play for - the two Florida teams have a massive geographic advantage (many players are from Florida) but both are also grossly cheap and are well known for trading away players as they get expensive. So even if either decides to spend they'll find it hard due to past actions. Baltimore will also find it hard to sign guys due to the nuclear division aspect (NYY, Red Sox, Jays all can outspend the O's easily, Tampa is far smarter so who wants to sign with a 4th/5th place team most likely for the bulk of any contract), Milwaukee has never been a destination for free agents, even when they had Yount-Molitor playing there. KC has a beautiful stadium and that is it. Pittsburgh...ugh. Colorado is literally in the middle of nowhere.
92-93 - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 04:28 PM EST (#425462) #
Players follow the money. It has always been as simple as that. The rest is noise.
scottt - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 06:04 PM EST (#425463) #
Bo and Vladdy want 300+M. There is no much point in signing them to these types of deal.
The Yankees don't extend players before they reach free agency.
That's the smart thing to do, unless the player want to sign early to reduce the risk.
It's like the Encarnation situation. The Jays had the superior offer but he was willing to wait in case someone decided to beat it. I didn't happen.

Most teams will already have expensive or talendted middle infielders when Bo because a free agent.
It could be another Correa or Siemens scenario.

Vladdy is something else.
The Jays will have to pay him or lose him.

Manoah peaked early. He would be wise to sign an extension, but maybe his ego won't let him.
Right now I'd guess 7 years at 35M past free agency minimum.

John Northey - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 06:21 PM EST (#425464) #
Manoah is the one of the big 3 who didn't come from money. Bo & Vlad grew up with ML dad's thus have had access to millions all their lives. Manoah didn't. So odds are Manoah would be most open to a long term deal with some risk of being underpaid while Vlad & Bo won't. Last winter there were reports the Jays tried to get Bo to sign on the dotted line for a long term deal but that he wants to go to free agency and see what is out there. Vlad late this year said he wanted to sign a long term deal but odds are it is at $250-$300 million with opt out clauses. If I ran a team I'd avoid opt-out clauses like the plague as then the team takes on 100% of the risk with no chance of a reward. Player does well at first, he walks. He does poorly the team pays out for an injured or poorly performing player.

Of course, then you have to factor in the short career length (normally) for middle infielders, the risk of an arm blowup for pitchers, and the inability to move Vlad from 1B down to an easier position as he gets older (DH is all that is left). Lots to factor in. Waiting until they reach free agency is what a team like Toronto can do as they can afford the big contracts when needed.
dalimon5 - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 06:35 PM EST (#425465) #
There's a REALLY good interview with Mark Shapiro on the Bob McCowan podcast today. In it they discuss:

*free agents
*long term contracts
*Bo, Vladdy and Manoah extensions
*rest of off season priorities (line up balance and bullpen)
*5th starter
*The 3 catcher trade situation

He was pretty forthcoming with information and it sounds like there's another major move to come.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2022 @ 06:43 PM EST (#425466) #
Off the top of my head, here are a few current free agents who reportedly signed for less money than they could have obtained with a different club:

JD Martinez
Trea Turner
Aaron Judge

Also, Dansby Swanson was apparently willing to sign for a lot less than $177m to stay in Atlanta, but AA came in so far below his asking price that he opted to sign with the Cubs.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 09:18 AM EST (#425467) #
2/36 for Conforto and the Giants.
bpoz - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 09:37 AM EST (#425470) #
I tried to find the Bob McCowan interview with Shapiro but had no luck. But there were other interviews, Buck and Shulman. They know their stuff IMO.

So I don't know details about Shapiro and nothing found by me about Atkins talking about a big bat.

In some of the interviews the opinion was that the winner of the WS did something "right". I reject that because Bauxites have mostly believed that the playoffs are a crap shoot. So LAD, NYM, NYY did something "wrong". I will just wait and see.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 10:00 AM EST (#425471) #
link here:
bpoz - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 10:07 AM EST (#425472) #
Thanks dalimon5. That is were the Shulman and Buck podcasts were that I listened to. I will keep checking.
Glevin - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 10:20 AM EST (#425473) #
Absolutely, different things matter for different players. Some care about comfort zone (eemgm kids get to stay in same place, don't need to sell house and move, etc...) some want to go where they're from (bad for Jays but good for teams in the South and California). Some just want to win. It's the same for anyone taking a job. Money will matter a ton but there are other factors as well.
bpoz - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 11:42 AM EST (#425474) #
I listened to the podcast. Very good.

Wow!! to the renovation. The outfield wall is not going to be round/even so strange bounces/rebounds. So a different kind of D for the OF.

Shapiro said the right things about the pen. More swing and miss. A strong pen takes pressure off the rotation.

Shapiro said nothing about another addition. So it is a maybe. He mentioned the pen quite often.

Shapiro "no no" about giving any opinion about the C situation. I loved it.

92-93 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 11:44 AM EST (#425475) #
“Staying in pinstripes for life is worth at least $50 million to Aaron Judge off the field,” said Ryan Schinman, founder of Mayflower Entertainment, a consultancy firm that matches brands with influencers. “If he goes to another team, the shine of what happened last season comes off. When you are a Yankee, you are relevant locally, regionally, nationally and globally.”

We don't actually know what Turner's offer from SD was, but if it was heavily deferred like their offer to Judge then you can't simply compare the dollars. Furthermore, 300MM in Philly is 180MM after tax, whereas 342MM in Cali is 170MM (not perfect because of how athletes are taxed, but you get the gist).

Martinez already got his $ after taking the highest offer from the Red Sox. Veterans like him and Kershaw do indeed let other factors play a role, obviously.
greenfrog - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 12:10 PM EST (#425476) #
Maybe Brantley always intended to re-sign with Houston, but he looks like a potential lost opportunity for the Jays. Shapiro says “expect more moves” but a lot of the logical LH hitting free agent targets (Nimmo, Brantley, Conforto, Yoshiba) are off the board. On the pitching front, I’m a bit disappointed the Jays didn’t nab Stripling or Eflin as a fifth starter. I always like having good SP depth and subscribe to Anthopoulos’s philosophy of entering the season with eight respectable starting pitching options.

The guess here is that if the Jays can’t trade for a quality LH bat, they try to sign Peralta to a one-year contract (maybe for around $8-10m). They might have to give him two years, though.
greenfrog - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 12:18 PM EST (#425477) #
AA’s offer to 28-year-old Dansby Swanson reportedly topped out at about 6/$100m. Here’s what he recently said about those negotiations (per The Athletic):

“Dansby made every effort to find a way to stay in Atlanta. We had conversations in the summer. He was willing to take a lot less than what he got…. Dansby tried hard and was willing to work with the team…. But from his standpoint, he did everything he could. He was committed, sincere and was more than willing to take a lot less. It’s important that everyone is aware of that. But even then the gap was too great.”

Is he the type of veteran you were referring to?
92-93 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 12:20 PM EST (#425478) #
They definitely need to add a 5th SP on a 1 year deal, Kikuchi/White aint gonna cut it and they have little depth behind them until Tiedemann is ready.

Balancing the lineup is out the window now, absent a big and unlikely trade. Maybe the shift rule will revive Biggio's bat a bit and he'll carve out a larger role.
92-93 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 12:26 PM EST (#425479) #
Swanson is an example of players following the money, regardless of what they say. Not sure how else his situation could be read. He would've signed an extension if staying in Atlanta was that important to him.

Occasionally a Jose Ramirez comes along and is actually willing to share the risk with his team and sign a reasonable extension because he's comfortable. Hopefully the Jays can reach something similar with Vladdy.

Devers is the next interesting case. He'd sure look nice in the Jays lineup. If he reaches FA and Bichette won't sign an extension, maybe you go after him and trade Bo.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 12:33 PM EST (#425480) #
"The guess here is that if the Jays can’t trade for a quality LH bat, they try to sign Peralta to a one-year contract (maybe for around $8-10m). They might have to give him two years, though."

This is basically where this FO is right now. I hope they can trade a C for the LHH who can hot top 5 in the line up. I don't think they ever will but this FO should really do an ultimatum...offer Bo a strong contract and if he won't resign then trade him for equal value and balance out your line up. I love the idea of going after Devers.
greenfrog - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 01:24 PM EST (#425481) #
It sounds as if the team is almost out of money and would prefer to divide up the remaining $10-15m among two or three players, rather than allocate it to one player.
greenfrog - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 01:48 PM EST (#425482) #
Per Jon Morosi:

“If #Pirates trade Bryan Reynolds this offseason, they’re looking for at least one top starting pitcher to headline the package — such as Bobby Miller (#Dodgers) or Ricky Tiedemann (#BlueJays), both of whom rank among the top 40 prospects in @MLB, per @MLBPipeline.”
Ducey - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 03:49 PM EST (#425483) #
Cracka - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 04:04 PM EST (#425484) #
Moreno for Varsho. Just like so many had suggested...
Glevin - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 04:12 PM EST (#425488) #
Varsho! Jays are going for it which they should do. Big cost but Jays are a much better team today. Trading prospects for major league talent is almost always a good idea.
Glevin - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 04:17 PM EST (#425489) #
Varsho led all of baseball in outs above average for OFers. He is an amazing defender with pop and isn't a FA until 2027. Jays now have best defensive Of in baseball with three CFers. They can and should still add another DH/4th OFer though.
Cracka - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 04:43 PM EST (#425510) #
Gurriel going to Arizona along with Moreno, opening up a little more payroll room ($5.8M). Varsho is arb eligible for the first time. I didn't think that Arizona would make this deal straight up, but glad that we didn't have to include a prospect. Will miss Gurriel's hot streaks, but Varsho is an everyday outfielder.
bpoz - Friday, December 23 2022 @ 06:21 PM EST (#425543) #
I really hate that we gave up Moreno. Varsho is good. I think our C is weak now. Although Varsho can play C.

Making the playoffs every year until 2030 compared to being very strong in this 2023/24/25 window is a strong consideration.

I am in shock!!
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