This is more like the old 83-93 stretch where we debated with friends (no internet) who'd be the last guy on the bench and last guy in the pen. Sometimes also about 'will hot rookie kid do it this year'. With Moreno gone the hot rookie is not a factor now, so it is just the last guys on the roster. I am confident White is a lock for the 8th slot in the pen, you need a long man with Kikuchi in the rotation (or vice-versa with White starting and Kikuchi the long man). The last bench guy right now I see as a battle between Otto Lopez (plays everywhere) and Nathan Lukes (plays all 3 OF slots but zero ML experience) depending on who shows the most in spring - smart move for both would be to work on showing off how they can do more than others. Utility is critical for the last bench guy - can you pinch run, cover key defensive positions, etc? That puts Lopez ahead due to his ability to cover SS in a pinch, 2B, 3B, and the OF (over 100 innings at each of 2B/SS/LF/CF/3B plus 69 innings in RF in the minors, 1000+ at 2B/SS). At all levels Lopez has 84 SB 39 CS over 505 games (includes winter leagues). Lukes is 60-31 in SB-CS, and has only played the OF, mainly CF (2525 innings). Right now my gut says Lopez gets it with Lukes in AAA ready if/when Springer or KK goes down with an injury.

Next question becomes what happens if an injury happens?

• Vlad: Spencer Horwitz gets a shot (on 40 man, in AAA) but only as backup while Biggio/Merrifield split time there I suspect
• anyone at 2B: Lopez up if not already, mix match of who is left
• Bo or Chapman: Espinal slides over, one of the kids might get their feet wet (Addison Barger or Orelvis Martinez) but Lopez up if not already.
• Any OF: Merrifield gets more time, as does Biggio. Plus Lukes up if not already while kids have a shot if they are on fire in AAA
• Kirk or Jansen: this is the 'oh crap' situation and will probably happen at least once or twice. Jays signed a AAAA guy already in Rob Brantly who is a defense first guy - lifetime ML stats of 225/287/326 for 5 ML teams over 8 seasons, just twice getting 100 PA in a season. Zach Britton is the top catching prospect now in the system but he is more of a LF than a C. He was the only guy mentioned in the Batters Box top 30+.

Pitching replacements are always 'who is healthy' and 'who is hot'. I suspect Pearson is #1 for start or relief if healthy, then it is a crapshoot depending on need (LHP/RHP/starter/reliever) and who is doing well. I expect Gage to get another shot at some point,

Gotta agreee with magpie and John. One, two spots max, and with the lack of options, white and richards have the inside track in the pen.

I’m okay with that … half a dozen guys who can rotate through the back end of the pen.

Similarly on the offensive side, although I think Lukes is deeper on the depth chart than the others on the 40 man.

Who else plays OF in buffalo?

Tommy Pham to the Mets for $6 million, which is considerably more than I thought he'd be getting. So much for that idea!

I too agree with Magpie and John about how the roster will end up.

Before the start of the 2021 season I think the rotation was Ryu, Ray, Matz most likely. #4/5 seems like Pearson and Stripling/Kay/Thornton...

Pearson got injured quickly. Thornton and Kay were not good enough which IMO is the reason that Manoah got called up so fast. Stripling took the 4th spot. IMO Atkins weak SP depth got exposed fast. Manoah either was or was not good enough to make the Opening day roster OR he was sent down for service time reasons. We/I don't know!!

The 2022 SP depth was much stronger with Stripling being the clear #6. Ryu's quick injury got Stripling in fast. Pearson was a non factor due to injury.

The 2023 SP depth is not better than 2022 necessarily. I know I am being too negative. Bassit replaces Stripling which is more reliable on paper I suppose. Kikuchi is back to handle #5 it seems. Last years #6 was Stripling. This years #6 is White, Z Thompson, Hutch and ???from the minors.

So 4 SPs for #5. Kikuchi, White, Thompson and Hutch. This should be good enough that we don't need to rush an unknown prospect. I don't think Pearson will be ready to take a SP innings load which Atkins smartly covered for. It would take 2 SP injuries to bring in a prospect the way Manoah was IMO.

Pham (1/6+), Mancini (2/14+), Duvall (1/7+)...Belt's 1/9.3 looks like a very reasonable risk in this market.

It's a bit surprising that the Jays kept Lukes on the 40-man over Merryweather. Perhaps they don't anticipate adding an OF before the season.

Pop is missing from the list above.

If the Opening Day roster has Lopez/Lukes as the last bench spot and White as the 8th RP, payroll will be just over 205MM. That assumes Bichette loses his arb case, which based on Magpie's breakdown in the last thread is the likely outcome.

I don't expect Merrifield to be on the bench much.
The hot bats will find playing time.

The phantom IL will be needed to get someone from Buffalo into the pen.
I think they still bring a taxi-squad around.

Incidentally, Merryfield is not a Cubs.

The batting order should be the same as last year.
What was it again?
Springer
Guerrero
Bichette
Kirk
(1st left bat)
Chapman
(2nd left bat)
(Merrifield or Espinal)
(third left bat)

Merryweather is the Cubbie. (I only managed to get the Y in there before screwing up.)

Ben Clemens has an interesting article on Varsho over at Fangraphs. All I can say is that I am sold Glevin, officially flipping that glass-half-empty to glass-half-full. The risks are obviously still there, but the player is so atypically interesting I am just looking forward to watching all the different aspects of the game he excels at. I mean, a .647 xwOBA on bases empty bunts?

My opening day batting order:

RF Springer
1B Vladdy
SS Bichette

DH Belt*
C Kirk
3B Chapman

LF Varsho*
2B Merrifield
CF Kiermaier*

Baseball America has come out with their top 100 list and it is behind a paywall (sigh). But SportsNet gives us the details - Tiedemann the only Jay on the top 100 this year (#31). Gabriel Moreno dropped from 3rd to 12th (good timing for the trade...I had a feeling his prospect luster was going to start fading). For the Jays top 10 they list 5 of them in the article...Tiedemann #1 (duh), then in order: Yosver Zulueta, Brandon Barriera, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez. The rest of the top 10 will come out before too long I'm sure.

Think we still add to the roster tbh.

Those drag bunts from Varsho are things of beauty.

David Phelps makes it official. He's done.

I could also imagine that if Vlad gets hurt for not-the-entire-season, Belt moves from DH to 1B as necessary, and we DH whoever is the best-available-bat off the bench and/or rotate through DH as before? Didn't Biggio also play a bunch of 1B last year?

With the rule changes it seems having players who can play the outfield without having to have a SS or 2nd baseman to help them will be quite an asset. We tick boxes there.

What I haven't seen is any analysis of what the real impact of the new rules will be. Has anyone seen any good article(s) on this?

Yeah, that's a good point. The Jays concentrating on OF defense is happening with the rules change to cut down on the shift where you could cover the not as good range with shifted infielders. I hadn't put 2 and 2 together yet, but that's obviously part of the reason that outfield defense is more important this year than recent past years.

I woke up to this headline from SI.com: "Red Sox Sign Outfielder Away From Division Rival To Bolster Depth". That's impressive clickbait for Ramiel Tapia agreeing to a minor-league contract. I'm a little surprised he didn't get a major league deal with a non-contender, but now is the time of year when MLB fringe players need to make tough choices.

Probably not much ST competition for the pen positions unless there are injuries. I have 8 on my list which does not count Pearson, Zulueta and Danner. These 3 have not had a chance to really prove themselves good or bad. Thornton and Hatch did get that chance in 2022.

But anyone, prospects or other that make a good impression and follow it up in the minors will get called up when something happens on the ML pen. I know that sounds obvious. But guys like Pearson, and Kay were injured most of 2022 and Saucedo got injured quickly. Merryweather did get to pitch a fair bit in the ML but was not good. He was great in the minors.

The Orioles have had the top prospect the last two years in Baseball America's list ( Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson) and have a total of 8 prospects in the Top 100. They're going to be another good team in the tough AL East in the coming years.

It will be fun to see if they are able to get the pitching they need for a solid rotation. Right now it looks like they are putting their chips in pitching prospects which is risky. I don't see them outbidding other teams for top 3 arms which will put more pressure on their young prospects, and if they plan to trade for a top arm (like Berrios at the time) then it will deplete that prospect capital.

Depth and other things help a team get 1 of the 6 playoff spots.

Good ingredients to have are:

1) A healthy #1
2) Some more healthy and good SPs. Ryu got injured. Kikuchi was bad. We probably got lucky that Stripling had a great year.
3) A good O & D. With depth. Tapia and Zimmer would not be good enough if forced to playa lot. Your stars have to carry the team.
4) A good pen.
5) Strength up the middle. Not easy to have. A weak hitting C can be hidden in the 9th spot.

We seem to have all the ingredients to get a playoff spot.

Looks like Tapia made a lasting impression with that July 22-24 series at Fenway where he went 6 for 12 with 10 RBI and an inside the park grand slam.

This is a good article on effects of the rules changes but it is behind a paywall.

https://theathletic.com/3604919/2022/09/19/mlb-rule-changes-pitch-clock-shift-ban/

Fun article there DavidtheDeuce. Reminds me of why I subscribed to the Athletic.

Big takeaways - faster games due to the clock thanks to less batters stepping out, pitchers playing with themselves, etc.

Stolen bases to climb a lot. Jays individual record is 60 by Dave Collins in 1984. Only 6 times a Jay has stolen 50+ (including Collins) - Roberto Alomar 1991 & 1993, Otis Nixon 1996, Damaso Garcia 1982, and Shannon Stewart in 1998. The highest in the 2000's is Rajai Davis in 2012 with 46. In the 2000's only 7 times a Jay has stolen 30+ - 3 by Rajai Davis (the top 3 of the 2000's were his 3 seasons here). Jose Reyes the last guy to steal 30 in a Jays uniform (2014). Bo's 25 in 2021 is the highest since then. Last year Springer's 14 lead the pack. Ugh. The Jays team record is 193 stolen bases in 1984, the last time the Jays stole 100 was 2013. So a lot of Jay stolen base standards could be broken.

Candidates...
Springer: Peak of 45 in the minors, but just 16 in the majors. However, I doubt he'll go nuts due to the injury risk and having Bo & Vlad hit after him
Bo: he just loves to run, had 25 in 2021, 32 on year in the minors.
Biggio: had 20 once in the minors, went 14-0 in 2019 in the majors.
Varsho: peaked at 21 in the minors, 16 in the majors (last year) - freed up from catching maybe he'll go for it more, especially if hitting later in the lineup to start.
Kiermaier: peaked at 27 in the minors, 21 in the majors but that was awhile ago. I suspect he'd love to try more as he sounded excited about the rule changes when interviewed by Mike Wilner on his podcast (Deep Left Field - strongly recommended).
Vlad: Believe it or not he had 15 one year in the minors (at 17 in just 62 games, caught 5 times). I could see him trying.
Kirk: OK, I'm joking here, but did you know he had 3 SB in 2019 in the minors? Those poor embarrassed catchers. Safe to say they were on hit-and-runs where the catcher dropped the ball or something.

It should be interesting. I'm cheering on the stolen base. I've always loved it - hated Rickey Henderson but damn was he fun to watch (against other teams). Tim Raines was always a delight to watch. The mid-80's Cardinals a delight as if anyone got on they'd steal (over 300 stolen bases for that team that year, with Vince Coleman getting 110 on his own). These Jays have a few guys who can run so lets hope they take full advantage and drive other teams nuts.

Merrifield stole 40 in 2021, so the Jays might turn him loose more often. I could see Otto Lopez getting a lot of chances, if he's on the roster.

Tim Raines is my favorite baseball player ever and the reason I fell in love with baseball. I don't know how much work he'll do with the club in 2023, but he's still listed on staff as a Special Assistant and would seem to be a great mentor for Dasan Brown as he levels up to AA and hopefully beyond. It's been a while since we've had a prospect who was an elite base-stealer... perhaps Dalton Pompey was the last one?

Here’s an article on the impact of rule changes in the minors that’s not behind a paywall. I’m surprised the shift restrictions didn’t have a bigger impact on Babip. Certainly will like trimming 20 minutes off the length of a game.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-the-minor-league-data-says-about-new-mlb-rules-changes/

“ pitchers playing with themselves, ”

I thought it was only a catcher that did that.

I had a different takeaway when reading the Athletic article the first time and now doubly so a second time. It has one stat - attempts went way up in the minors, then speculation from executives (the writer doesn't say if they are baseball OP executives).

A smart analytic-minded team will likely wait and see which C are vulnerable. Minor league catchers, even the AAAA defense first ones, are just that little bit worse. Pitchers not being able to step off more than twice, sure, but I'd love to see the first fake out of a max step-off to a disguised pitch-out that runner. Oh the joy of the pitch-out!

Don't get me wrong, I love that the running game is back in play, and attempts may go up out of the gate for some teams but the changes likely won't move the needle nearly as much as they did in the minors. The negative value of having a runner thrown out is more in the majors than the minors because the monetary value of a W is so much more. I'd love to see those regular split-screen shots of runner-pitcher again that I remember from the 80s, but I won't hold my breath.

Remember Lester? The guy could literally not throw to 1B to pick off a runner and when he was paired with a decent defensive C runner's SB success rate only dropped a couple of points at worst. In other words, if the changes turn every pitcher into Lester we'd see no change in success rate.

I'm concerned that Bo (and KK) are cocky enough to just start running. Bo is not a speedster he had a good 2021 based likely on luck and a bad 2022 based on bad choices of C to run on and a loss of speed:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-bo-bichettes-wheels-fell-off-in-2022/

KK is not young anymore. He's a good candidate to hurt himself on the bases.

An underrated change is the pitch clock will be on max effort RP. Romano seems like the one Jay that might be hurt, and his > 3 out appearances ought to be squelched until he can show he can handle the tempo between max effort pitches.

I wonder if the decrease in the % of 100MPH FB will decrease more than the % of SB success rate?

Some pitchers are quite the belly-itchers, which counts. :)

“ pitchers playing with themselves, ”
Comes from watching Dave Stieb pitch for years - he'd grab his crotch as often as Michael Jackson would. Very odd thing. I never felt a need to adjust my cup during a game, let alone 20 or 30 times.

I submit Rick Bosetti tops the list, with Reed Johnson in the mix.

Ryan Day : DOH! How could I have forgotten about Merrifield? He obviously is the guy most likely to try to break Collins Jay record for SB if there is a significant shift in how stolen bases go this year. He'll probably hit in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, thus some value in trying as KK will certainly be #9 so with less than 2 out you might as well try to steal (don't want KK leading off so you don't try unless nearly 100% certain with 2 outs).

The Cubs put A. Kay back on waivers

Oh no.

I cant see the Jays being interested in Kay, unless they wanted to DFA him again and hope to sneak him thru.

I noticed Pearson and Francis had good winterball seasons:

Nate 0.00 ERA 12IP 5 H 4BB 16 K

Bowden 1.51 ERA 35.2IP 19 H 9 BB 47K in 9 starts

Jays would have to DFA someone else to pick up Kay.

The Jays are lucky enough to have been able to outright one guy they picked up earlier.

The Marlins finally trade Pablo Lopez - he's off to Minnesota along with a couple of pretty decent prospects for Luis Arraez, who they plan to play at second base with Jazz Chisholm moving to centrefield.

Nice move by the Marlins.

Can't help but wonder if the Marlins will now trade Chisholm as well for other parts.  Moving a guy who has only played 2B/SS as a pro to CF seems risky.  Mix in that he has 4 years of control left and is just entering his age 25 season and he is quite valuable at 2B.  Wonder what the Jays would need to give to get him?  The Trade Simulator puts Chisholm at 58.7 excess value, or more than Kirk or Vlad.  Yikes. I couldn't put together a deal that made sense for the Jays at that site.  You'd have to include Tiedemann to have any shot and I don't see the Jays doing that, nor do I see the Marlins accepting a deal that didn't include him.  Ah well.  Lets just hope he doesn't end up in pinstripes.

The Marlins are also moving Jean Segura to third base, so they're going to have two guys in the lineup learning new positions in the field.

The Cubs put A. Kay back on waivers

Kay tweeted: "What a run we had @Cubs"

I've been pushing the idea of trading Bo for Jazz all year, especially if Bo won't resign. The impetus was to balance the line up. Ideal move would have been to sign a SS and trade Bo for Jazz. Seems like that window has passed.

I would be a bit worried about Chisholm's injury history.

Interestingly, both Lopez and Arraez have had some significant injuries as well. So the trade is (in part) a bet that the acquired player will remain healthy for the next 2-3 years. The Yankees are similarly hoping that Montas can stay on the field in 2023 after he receives treatment for his latest bout of shoulder inflammation.

Jazz has had two injuries: a stress fracture and a torn meniscus. He's 24. I don't think there's much to worry about there. Bo on the contrary has had a concussion, a broken hand, hamstring injury, knee and shoulder injuries and shin contusions. I know which I'd rather take. Jazz also has the benefit of spreading out his stats over the whole season rather than the last 45 days of the season.

I’m a bit confused. Bo has played 159 games (690+ PA) each of the last two seasons, amassing about 5 WAR each season.

Chisholm made it through 60 games (241 PA) last year.

It seems Bo has had a few nagging injuries at times, but he’s been able to play productively through them. And I actually think his surge last year is a positive sign. He was able to overcome some significant struggles and massively turn his season around, showing just how talented a hitter he is.

I’m not saying Bo is a better player than Chisholm. But it’s pretty clear he was healthier overall than Jazz in his age-23 and 24 seasons. Going forward? Who knows.

Rogers Centre is going to be even more hitter-friendly moving forward.
Per sources, here are the expected new dimensions.
RCF alley moving in from 375 to 357(!) feet.
LCF 375 to 366.
CF from 400 to 397.
Lines expected to stay same at 328.#BlueJays

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) January 21, 2023

The Jays have been spending big for a few years now. Miami clearly is not a big spender. Ng followed up on what she said that they would trade their pitching surplus to improve the O. I think KK and Belt may have been too expensive for Miami even though the contracts are for 1 year and under $10mil.

Miami's window may be opening now but competing against Atlanta, NYM and Philadelphia to just make the playoffs seems very hard. But they have to eventually try to compete. How soon will Miami decide to rebuild again? 3-5 years from now I am guessing.

If Chisholm is good next year, Miami may try to extend him.

That's very interesting, UO. Balancing out the lineup makes even more sense with a high wall and short fence in RCF. Varsho and Biggio should benefit significantly.

On the run prevention side, it does increase the importance of having two effective LHP in the pen. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Tiedemann is up in that role in mid-season, starting out his career in the same way that Chris Sale did.

The dream scenario would be Tiedemann, Zulueta, Francis and Pearson all pitching well and staying healthy, with at least two of them contributing to the MLB team, and Ryu completing his rehabilitation and joining the team around August.

Excellent point bpoz - every teams needs to decide when to go for it and can't count on others to be slumping. AL East has NYY/Boston/Jays (all luxury tax teams), Rays (very smart), so the O's have to pick when to go for it for 2 or 3 years then rebuild again or get smarter people in charge ala Tampa. NL East has Mets/Phillies (very rich), Atlanta (rich but cheap and smart), Washington (rebuilding now, but has tons of cash when ready), and poor Miami. The other nightmare is the NL West with Dodgers/Padres (rich), Giants (potentially rich if willing to spend), Arizona & Colorado (need to be careful about setting up a 3-5 year window). AL West has a 400 lbs gorilla potentially in the Angels but they are run so poorly they can't win. Houston instead has taken that role with smarts. Seattle is a middle market team, Texas spends freely but hasn't seen results, and Oakland was Tampa West but now is just bad. Centrals are the easy divisions - both Chicago teams could outspend their divisions easily but choose not to.

I keep hoping for radical realignment. Create 'super divisions' - one east, one west. NYY, NYM, Philly, Boston - $200 mil minimum. West being LAD, LAA, SD, Arizona (poor Arizona) etc. Jays could be in a great lakes division with Detroit, Cleveland, and someone (Pittsburgh maybe). With 32 teams (2 new ones coming, probably Vegas and Nashville unless the A's move first to Vegas, the other 2 are Portland & Montreal) you could go with 4 8 team divisions or 8 4 team divisions. Depends how they want to set up the playoffs I guess. I prefer 8 team divisions myself, with the other playoff spots being wild cards but suspect MLB would go with 8 4 team divisions with 4 wild cards due to people liking to see their team in 'first'. Regardless 16 per league, split east/west instead of AL/NL. Might call east AL and west NL or vice versa. West: Seattle, Oakland, SF, LAA, LAD, SD, Arizona, Colorado (that's 8), Texas, Houston, KC, St Louis, Twins, Cubs, White Sox, Brewers (8 more). East: Miami, TB, Atlanta, Cincinnati, O's, Washington, Cleveland, Pittsburgh (8), then the killer - NYY, NYM, Philly, Boston, Jays, Tigers. Oops, 2 short in killer division but 2 new teams to add which would shift teams. Vegas or Portland moves a team from west to east (Colorado to midwest, but no one easy to move from midwest to east, Twins or Brewers might not fight tooth and nail to stay in midwest I think). Nashville and/or Montreal much easier to fit in as Montreal would just go straight into killer division while Nashville would be south west, shifting someone into the killer. Perfect world probably is Nashville and Portland (A's to Vegas, Tampa to Montreal) with Brewers going to killer, and Colorado to central.

There are others who could get an expansion team. Vancouver has actually been mentioned, as has a few spots in Mexico but those I don't see happening. Austin or San Antonio in Texas (close to each other so just 1) could work well (big population), Charlotte is possible (them or Nashville, not both) too. For some bizarre reason Orlando is mentioned now and then but given how the 2 Florida teams have flopped I can't see it. FYI: the biggest metro areas without a team are Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio, Portland all ranked #22-25. Vegas is #29. Montreal's region of 4 million would put it around #15 in the USA, so bigger than any of the other contenders. Vancouvers 2.5 is just below the 25th rank. So maybe Vancouver isn't as out there as I thought. Most Mexican areas have crazy big populations Mexico city is around 22 million for example, with Monterrey over 5 million but the wealth in those areas isn't comparable so I don't see it happening. Monterrey is easily the most wealthy of those areas but even there the problems would be sky high for a ML team to be there.

having two effective LHP in the pen... Tiedemann... starting out his career in the same way that Chris Sale did.

And David Wells and Jimmy Key, to stay closer to home if (much) further back in time.

the same way Osuna should also have been transitioned to SP.

The problem with Osuna was the lack of innings.
It's just not worth it to transition an elite closer into a starter if it's going to take 3 years for him to get to 30 starts.

As anyone mentioned the WBC?
Berrios is a starter for Puerto Rico, along with Marcus Stroman, which is a total surprise to me.
Guerrero is one of only 4 players announced for the DR.
Kirk is catching Mexico.
Romano is likely the closer for Italy.

The WBC will carve a huge chunk out of spring training.
Lots of opportunities for prospects and guys on minor league contracts.
Not a lot of time to get familiar with the rule changes.

I have to agree with you John N that the Rays are very smart. But I don't know why.

This is not the answer as far as I know. Run differential has an effect on number of wins. For TB: 2022 +52 86 Wins. 2021 +206 100Wins. 2020 +60 which was best in the AL 40/20 W/L. 2019 +113 96Wins for the last WC. 2018 +70 90Wins 6th best in AL. Then bad run differential with bad number of wins for 2017, 16, 15 & 14. So even TB rebuilds it seems.

Run differential I am now admitting is possibly the answer. But how is the question??

You trade a J Shields, C Archer, B Snell for prospects or underperforming players that don't get paid a lot. Glasnow and Meadows for example.

TB doing weird stuff like trading Meadows. Seems to me that Meadows and Teo are a bit similar but many did not like trading Teo. Zunino 33 Hr in 2021. Not picking up the C Morton option.

"I’m not saying Bo is a better player than Chisholm. But it’s pretty clear he was healthier overall than Jazz in his age-23 and 24 seasons."

Up to this point in their respective careers Bichette has clearly been the better player and it hasn't been particularly close. No idea whether that changes, but Bo is 1 month younger and Chisolm's lifetime fWAR is less than what Bo accumulated last season. Take that for what it is worth.

The WBC is always fun. Great chance to see quality baseball in March and to get a few guys moving quicker earlier and get some kids a shot with the ML teams. Canada in Pool C (Arizona) vs the USA, Mexico, Columbia, and Great Britain. Top 2 teams move on to round 2 vs the top 2 in Group D (Puetro Rico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Israel, Nicaragua) in Miami (where the semi finals and finals will be).

I've been pushing the idea of trading Bo for Jazz all year

Better plan: Sign Bo and grab a Louis Armstrong album.

Louis Armstrong, Billie Holliday, Miles Davis, Sarah Vaughan, John Coltrane, Ella Fitzgerald, Charlie Parker. So many good choices if you want to acquire Jazz.

Anyways, that doesn't seem to be happening. It's a slow time of the year. I do hope that they extend Manoah or Jansen.

Yikes I'm glad I wasn't chasing a trade for Brooks Pounders...


Love the jazz hits, I'm a big follower of Jazz. Listen to lots of high quality recordings on a good system and have started reading about the subject to learn more. I think it was the Ken Burns documentary where they said that Jazz, Abstract Expressionism and Baseball were the three quintessentially American things. I happen to follow and like all three.

Noticed the old Price signs with Boston thread popped back up on the list. So I thought I'd see how did that work out? Many wanted him back here and complained loudly about Rogers being cheap. $210 million later he produced 11.0 bWAR over 6 seasons (he skipped out on 2020) with just 2 years having WAR's of 2+ (required to be considered a solid starter) which he had done each of the 6 years before going to Boston. So yeah, the Jays were smart not to blow $30+ mil a year on him I'd say. Only in 2018 did he provide value for what he made that year (3.7 bWAR plus an excellent playoff performance to help Boston win it all that year).

What does this say for the Jays going forward? Just that one should be very, very careful with big long term deals. See the new topic I put together covering our 3 best candidates for long term deals.

Yeah jays might have not won a championship in those 7yrs if they had signed that contract.

More the Jays might not have made the playoffs in 2020 or been so close in 2021 and missed 2022 if they had - $32 mil on the books those 3 years might have made signing Ryu and/or Springer and/or Gausman a lot harder to do. No Ryu in 2020 and no playoffs that year, no close but no cigar in 2021 either. Screw those 2 up and Springer might not have come pre-2021 and Gausman might have been less willing pre 2022. Also the Jays might have sunk more into trying to compete in 2017-2019 when they weren't a contender with the old 'can't waste that $30+ a year pitcher' attitude teams show too often.

Stop saying they made the playoffs in 2020.

And so they would have missed out on Ryu's and Kikuchi's great contributions to the 2022 team.

"Ben Clemens has an interesting article on Varsho over at Fangraphs. All I can say is that I am sold Glevin, officially flipping that glass-half-empty to glass-half-full. The risks are obviously still there, but the player is so atypically interesting I am just looking forward to watching all the different aspects of the game he excels at. I mean, a .647 xwOBA on bases empty bunts?"

Welcome aboard! I am obviously aware that things might go south but he has a unique skill set and I think there is some serious upside there as well. The weird OF shape will likely make OF D even more important.

Stop saying they made the playoffs in 2020.

Shall we call it the Play-In series? Is that better? We have to call it something.

I'd call it finishing 7th.

That doesn't sound like the name of any kind of post-season play, but whatever.

It's pretty embarrassing that the Jays hang a banner for 2020 at the Dome.

I agree. I'd lose them all except 92-93.

Last year of course, the Jays had the 3rd best (tied) record in the league. This is interesting because - and only because - they'd never done that before in their moderately long history. Everywhere else, from 1st to 14th - but never 3rd. And 7th has been their most seen landing spot (once with Ash, three times with Ricciardi, twice with Anthopoulos, once with Atkins.)

But they've covered all the bases now. Well, except for 15th, but that's only been an option this past decade.

As everyone knows, of the 30 MLB franchises, 16 have been around since the beginning of the 20th century and they've all played about 20,000 games by now. The other 14 have been added since the 1960s, none of them have played 10,000 games, and going into the 2022 season every last one of them had an all-time losing record.

But no more - Houston not only won their second championship - they dragged their all-time record above .500 (by just 11 games, but there it is.)

One team is in a position to do likewise this year. The Jays would need to go 96-66. It could happen - I wouldn't bet money on it - but it's possible. (The Angels could pull it off as well, but they need to win 102 games, which seems a little less likely.)

In the 2nd half Kirk had a lower OPS than Tapia. That is all.

I've heard people say that, but baseball reference doesn't agree. They define half by the all-star break, and if you do that for splits in 2022 Kirk's second half OPS was 661 (first half 882) while Tapia's 2022 second half OPS was 649 (first half 688). So even in the second half Kirk's OPS was higher than Tapia's.

So half does not equal 50%? Interesting.

On August 20th, Espinal had a 2.2 fWAR to Bichette's 1.6. The discrepancy would've been even larger if the better SS was actually playing SS. That is all.

It's a dilemma.

Move Bo to 2nd and he most definitely will not be re-signing.

Then again, not sure you can pay Bo the going rate for SS if he's not actually an SS.

2nd Half:

* Kirk .272 babip, 95wrc+
* Tapia .327 babip, 72wrc+


Kirk was still worlds better in the 2nd half, despite the babip gods heavily favoring Tapia.

Bo is a 2B who will want to be paid as a SS - that's the Jays decision to make.

with the caveat that young SS can certainly improved, there's 35 SS with at least 1000 innings over the last 3yrs:

Here's the bottom 5 in uzr/150:

* 31. Baez -5.3
* 32. Tatis -6.1
* 33. Torres -6.8
* 34. Pena -9.6
* 35. Bichette -10.9


not so promising unfortunately.

Obviously, it's always been possible to win a championship with a bat-first, defensively challenged shortstop. It should, in fact, be easier today. Your modern AL defense has to get two fewer outs per game than an AL defense did back when Derek Jeter was building his ring collection.

The Blue Jays have a staff loaded with flyball pitchers. Improving the outfield defense seems a logical priority.

Congratulations to Scott Rolen on his well-deserved election to the Hall of Fame. It's a good thing that the voters acknowledged a player who makes a variety of contributions.

He likely would not have made it if he was merely an average fielder, yet he needed to hit better than Brooks Robinson to make it.

[Rolen] likely would not have made it if he was merely an average fielder

I think Ron Cey and Sal Bando might agree with you there.

In 1991, Manny Lee had zero homers and 107 strikeouts. (1 of 3 players in history with 0 HR and 100+ K, if I recall correctly.)

Subjectively, Bo seems to make about 1 bad throw per game. I can live with that. For the next 3 years.

Bo's 13 steals and 8 caught-stealing are more curious, after his 25:1 ratio the season prior.

<br> tangential Jays info re turf ground-based
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yandy-diaz-artificial-turf-and-earl-expletive-weaver/

Three pitch Manny!

Rosen deserves it for sure. One of those players I didn’t fully appreciate till I watched him play daily.

Kaitlyn McGrath is talking about Nathan Lukes as the lead candidate for the last roster spot, and I hope she’s right.

It feels like a good thing to do by the guy, barring the team adding a value FA late. It also feels like the raps handing out those developmental contacts. I’d love to see Buffalo as a AAA destination for ML FAs.

I figured we would be adding to the AAA OF depth. Any thoughts on Wynton Bernard? Seems like a good depth add, can play CF, two option years, bats right, runs well.

And talking about great stories, debuting at 32 with the Rockies is dope. Pulling for the guy

Lukes has almost 1000 AAA ABs. He steals bases well. I don't know how he is on D but he needs to be able to catch a fly ball etc... unlike Derek fisher and also Teo had difficulty. He does not really need a strong arm. He also needs to know his territory in the OF. I think it was Socrates Brito in Boston 2019 that messed up in the OF with Grichuk. That contributed to us losing the game after we got a big lead.

So good luck to Lukes.

* CF: +0 distance, -2ft height

* RCF: -16ft distance, +4ft 4in height
* LCF: -7ft distance, +1ft 2in height

* RCPA: -11ft distance, +0ft 9in height
* LCPA: -2ft distance, +2ft 9in height

* RFL: +0ft distance, +2ft 7in height
* LFL: +0ft distance, +4ft 4in height

Thanks for the information regarding the changes to the outfield dimensions and wall heights uglyone. Very interesting.

I wonder if the Blue Jays will play a two-man outfield to optimize their defense against certain batters? They could bring in one of the outfielders to play behind second base or shallow right field. My understanding is that this defensive alignment is allowed under the new rules as long as all 3 outfielders are on the grass/turf. I could see Whit Merrifield being the outfielder who is positioned in those spots.

Will be fun to watch.

Does Joe's HR clear the wall by more than 4ft 4in?

the shorter wall in CF should make HR-stealing catches much more common, so that's cool.

and I never loved those short walls on the short porches down the line. glad they're higher.

Joe Carter homer here. 4ft 4in higher than wall?

With the new wall height Joe's hit would not have cleared for a HR. I predict it would be a hard single to load the bases for on-deck pinch hitter Alfredo Griffin.

"on-deck pinch hitter Alfredo Griffin"

holy smokes.

Joe would have just hit it higher. It was meant to be

I’d thought Cito might have pinch hit Darnell Coles for Griffin. He could play 3rd just in case he didn’t hit a grand slam.

In the alternate universe with the higher fence, Jimy Williams was managing and Garth Iorg was on the bench. Did Edvard Munch paint "The Scream 2"?

Should have added: Griffin wasn’t a pinch hitter. He went in to run for Olerud in the 8th & then played 3rd, Sprague moving to 1st.

Looming on deck, the franchise leader with 74 sacrifice hits.

I've always wanted a shorter outfield fence, so outfielders have a chance to catch a ball over the fence.  Instead, it looks like they're prioritizing letting spectators reach over the fence.

They should put a tarp over the first row of seats down the foul lines, so spectators can't reach over and grab a ball in play, preventing us from seeing if a double could have been stretched into a triple, or if an attempted triple could have been turned into an out.

And they need TV cameras in straightaway center-field.  That would greatly enhance our view of 300 pitches per game (neutral to whether the pitcher is left-handed or right-handed) like in broadcasts from Fenway or Tropicana.

Instead, it looks like they're prioritizing letting spectators reach over the fence.

1. They are lowering the CF fence from 10 ft to 8 ft

2. God forbid someone pays their $50 and and has the chance to catch a ball

God forbid someone pays their $50 and and has the chance to catch a ball

Catching a ball that is out of play is one thing. Catching a ball that is in play is a whole other matter. No one should have that right no matter the ticket price. If you want to do that, earn a spot on the team.

I'll never forget that playoff game at Yankee Stadium where the kid clearly reached over the fence to catch a fly ball while the opposing team's outfielder was standing underneath ready to catch it. Of course, it was still ruled a home run. Friggin' Yankees!

try as I might I can't find a side angle of Joe's dinger.

The dome was one of the last cookie cutter multi-purpose stadiums. Comiskey II in Chicago was the last one. Then came Baltimore with their park and that was it - everyone needed retro parks for a looong time. We all thought retractable domes would take off but that took awhile and then only in a few places - Arizona, Seattle, Houston, Miami, and the Texas Rangers. All more for sun or rain than snow/cold ala SkyDome and the Big Owe. I'm kind of surprised other cold weather places didn't put them in (Cleveland, NY, etc.) when the opportunity existed.

Love the new dimensions. No idea how they'll play but unique stadiums are great and making the OF different also gives Jays fielders a home field advantage. They know the bounces and angles and the visitors don't.

It's hit too hard for Molitor to win it, though.

Normally, but... ever see Pete Incaviglia play the outfield?

SkyDome is so cool.  Rogers Centre is the house that " Bell " built?

A source revealed to me that by the hotel, the 600 level mechanical rooms are haunted.

Wow, tells you how long ago 1993 was - Inky was a player I found fun to watch from afar back then, and I totally forgot he was even on Philly in 1993, let alone in LF that game. He came in and hit a sac fly, pinch hitting for Milt Thompson off Al Leiter. Given how much he K'd one has to be surprised by the choice to have him pinch hit, then that he made contact. That was Philly's final run of the game. Then he handled a few chances in LF from the 7-9th innings (Carter, Henderson, and White hit fly balls to him before Carter hit one over everyone).

try as I might I can't find a side angle of Joe's dinger.

I was in the auxiliary press box - all the regular season guys got banished to the football press box to make room for all the national press for the World Series - so I was down the left field line, a little deeper than the fence. It wasn't a line drive homer, it was a big fly ball, Incaviglia was looking up. I remember it looked like a pop up off the bat. It didn't scrape over the fence. It cleared it pretty easily, and I'm pretty sure it would have carried over the wall even if it was four feet higher.

Just imagine Teoscar and Gurriel trying to play in this OF with all the weird angles and caroms and trading them makes even more sense.

It'll be interesting when Seattle comes to town April 28-30th, and Arizona on July 14-16th. Hopefully we get to see Teoscar and Gurriel play the OF those games, and get some entertainment watching triples being hit by the Jays.

try as I might I can't find a side angle of Joe's dinger.

In the still you posted from the video, the ball is visible about halfway up the back wall. It was much higher when it cleared the outfield wall, which you can actually see if you play around enough with the video. (I was demented enough to do just that.) The ball drops out of the sky - it was actually higher than the lowest rows of seats and it comes almost straight down in front of the back wall. Your screengrab caught it halfway down - a thousandth of a second sooner and it would have been almost at the top of the back wall.

I've made a screengrab of that very moment but... Sigh. uglyone actually explained to me last summer how to include an image that lives somewhere on the internets (although I have to look up his instructions every damn time) but this one is on my computer.

Trust me?

I trust you, Magpie. This isn't counting nuclear warheads after all (where "trust but verify" is a prudent approach).

my photo server cheatcode is to tweet the picture that's saved on my computer and then use the twitter pic link.

and I'm not sure I buy your explanation!

i played with the video a bunch of times and my screengrab is probably a little bit late but the ball sure seemed to drop well before the back wall.

impossible to tell from that angle where it cross the wall tho.

my photo server cheatcode is to tweet the picture that's saved on my computer and then use the twitter pic link.

Never thought of that!



And there's the ball just below the top of the back wall.

is it over the all there tho?

who knows!

Oh, it's over the wall! My screengrab precedes yours by a millisecond, from which we may partially extrapolate (ah-hem) the flight of the ball. (I even tried to use what I thought would be the same source video from the YouTube.) And from the two images, the ball appears to be descending. I think in that brief instant of Time, it probably travelled further on the vertical plane, in the direction of Down, than on the horizontal plane (the direction of Out.)

My memory tells me it was nearer the back of the bullpen wall than the front, but that's just memory. Not scraping either wall, though.

Tweet the picture. Damn, that's clever!

ok fine I'll trust you.

but only because you're flattering me.

only because you're flattering me.

That's the true method behind this madness!

Theoretically, it should have been possible to see the ball another millisecond earlier, but it's just impossible to find it against the backdrop of the stands, with all that white in there. We must await its Final Descent.

I can't remember how high that back bullpen wall was, but if the front wall at the fence was 10 feet, I think the back wall had to be close to 20. There's also a bit of room in there between the two walls that gets a little lost in the foreshortening - it's a bullpen, with space for two pitchers to warm up alongside wach other.

It's funny that there doesn't seem to be a single side angle available.

Even searching my memory banks i don't remember ever seeing one.

It's funny that there doesn't seem to be a single side angle available.

Now that you mention it... But I don't know that any of the broadcasters were in the habit of placing a camera in the outfield corner. It would have been a way to get images of Jays relievers warming up, but I don't think anyone bothered. For Jays relievers, you always just got the ball travelling back and forth, and glimpses of heads. Especially in the Olden Days.

I think we just signed Chad Green.

If he's healthy, he's a very good reliever.

2yr stats:

* RP Romano (30): 125gms, 51era-, 1.9war65
* RP Green (32): 81gms, 73era-, 1.6war65
* RP Swanson (29): 90gms, 59era-, 1.5war65
* RP Cimber (32): 149gms, 63era-, 0.9war65
* RP Bass (35): 143gms, 65era-, 0.8war65
* RP Mayza (31): 124gms, 78era-, 0.7war65
* RP Pop (26): 85gms, 88era-, 0.5war65
* RP Garcia (32): 123gms, 90era-, 0.5war65
* RP Richards (30): 115gms, 110era-, 0.1war65

Source: Chad Green in agreement on a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

— Michael Marino (@MarinoMLB) January 31, 2023

Blue Jays deal with Chad Green is $8.5m over two years, with options for '25 and '26, per source.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 31, 2023

One more good bench add now please.

Green is broken though. Had TJ surgery in May. So wont be pitching until the second half.

I just found this TJ spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit#gid=0) and the most recent recovery times have been 8mos, 12, 12, 14, 11, 10, 13, 14, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 11....

All those recovery times have him back this year with plenty of time to spare.

Source confirms: Free-agent reliever Chad Green to Blue Jays on 2-year, $8.5M deal. Second year is conditional player option that Green can exercise if Jays decline 3-year club option. If both decline, Jays get 2-year club option at higher AAV. First: @MarinoMLB, @ShiDavidi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 31, 2023

Creative contract, per sources.
- Green gets $2.25m in '23.
After:
- Jays option on 24-27 for $27m/3 w up to $1m in bonuses
-- If declined, Green has option for 24 at $6.25m w up to $2m in bonuses
-- If Green declines, Jays have $21m/2yr option on 24-25 w up to $1m in bonuses https://t.co/itqxCA7V85

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 31, 2023

I really like this deal for the Jays, the team is pretty comlplete.

A tiderrman breakout would really round out the roster.

Matt Gage DFA'd

I agree uglyone - that is the top priority at this point, a solid bench guy to cover the OF - ideally a RH hitter. Grossman being the top choice.

A LH reliever such as Andrew Chafin (ranked #39 among free agents by MLB Trade Rumors - wants $9+ mil per year over more than 1 year). Matt Moore as a LH reliever would be nice (1.95 ERA last year over 74 IP), but is wild (4.6 BB/9 last year, 3.8 lifetime) and seems to want the same bucks.

I wouldn't be mad if the Jays signed Michael Wacha for the 5th rotation slot either (reported to want $30 mil over 2 years).

That's it for top 50 guys who are still on the board (Chafin and Wacha) and for guys who catch my eye as possible pluses for the Jays. From what I'm reading a few of them need to get a bit more realistic about their value on the market as is. I get why some still think they are worth more but they pushed it too far for too long. Someone will end up needing to accept far less than they want if still unsigned into March. I give it 2 weeks for these guys to be signed (along with a few others kicking like Profar).

FYI: Blue Jays have designated reliever Matt Gage for assignment to make room for Green. Acceptable, but hopefully they can sign him to AAA as I like him as a depth piece.