Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Every time I see your face
It reminds me of the places
We used to go.

Happy 83rd, Sir Richard!


The "first half" wraps up with a visit to Detroit.

The Tigers have to be frustrated and disappointed. You will recall that two years ago, in their first full season after losing a whopping 114 games, the Detroiters surged back in the general area of competence, posting a 77-85 mark under new manager A.J. Hinch. They had some interesting and promising young talent - outfielder Riley Greene and Akil Baddoo, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. So last year they went on the market and brought in some Proven Veterans to help out. They added southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who had gone 45-19 over his last three seasons with Boston, to their rotation. They signed free agent Javier Baez to take over at shortstop. They probably weren't expecting to win, or even contend, but it should have been another step in that direction.

And they fell flat on their collective faces, going 66-96. The biggest problem was the offense, as everyone - without exception - stunk. It's not like they had a great attack in 2021, but they did manage to score 4.3 times per game. A year ago they collapsed completely, managing just 3.44 runs per game, the worst figure in the major leagues. Young Riley Greene hit .253/.321/.362 - that's an OPS+ of 98 - and Greene was their best hitter. It was simply stunning, and more than a little inexplicable. And just to make their cup of joy complete, the pitching staff was ravaged by injuries and other issues. Mize made two starts before his elbow required Tommy John surgery. Skubal made it into August before flexor tendon surgery ended his season. Rodriguez missed time with a ribcage sprain and an unexplained personal issue.

This season? A little more of the same (they brought Matthew Boyd back to bolster the rotation, and after making 15 starts for the Tigers, Boyd now needs Tommy John surgery.) But Mize has progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, Skubal returned to the active roster just this week. So have Rodriguez and Friday starter Alex Faedo. And the offense hasn't quite been the wall-to-wall disaster they provided in 2022, mainly because Riley Greebe has improved upon his rookie performance, is still this team's best hitter, and is still just 22 years old. He's been out with a leg injury, but just had a 5-for-5 game for AAA Toledo on his rehab assignment and may be back this weekend. Torkelson is fighting the league to a draw - not what one wants or expects from someone drafted first overall, but an improvement on last year's grisly [performance. Akil Baddoo should be back this weekend as well - he's been out with a quad strain - he hasn't matched his rookie year performance, but he's still doing much better than he did in 2022.

Unfortunately, the more Javier Baez sees of the American League, the worse it gets. And the older Miguel Cabrera gets, the older he gets. But the Tigers do look like they're generally returning to where they were in 2021 - approaching respectability, with a lot of interesting young talent, most of which either hasn't quite figured it out yet or keeps getting hurt.

Detroit was here when the season was young, providing the opposition for the Jays home opener. The Tigers had stumbled out of the gate, losing seven of their first nine games. The Jays were happy to add to their misery.

The Story So Far

Tue 11 April: Detroit 3 Toronto 9 - Nick Maton jumped on Manoah for a three run homer in the second inning. That was the only scoring the Jays staff would allow on the day. Manoah lasted just 4.1, as he walked five and threw a million pitches, so Pop took over at  that point with the Jays trailing 3-2. They didn't trail for long. Kiermaier and Springer led off the fifth with back-to-back HRs off Manning, and they piled on five more runs in the eighth, with Kirk's three run dinger putting some icing on that cake. Chapman and Bichette also went deep, for a five homer day.

Wed 12 April: Detroit 3 Toronto 4 - Kevin Gausman was on the hill, so naturally we had a tense, low-scoring pitcher's duel. Rodriguez matched Gausman through six, and left with the game tied at 1-1. Detroit broke through in the seventh, with Kerry Carpenter hitting a two run homer off Gausman to put the Tigers up 3-1. And so it stayed until the bottom of the ninth. Guerrero led off with a single and Chapman drew a walk. They both moved up on a wild pitch and Varsho walked to load the bases. Merriield provided the first sac fly, scoring Guerrero and deep enough that Chapman could move up to third. Which allowed him to score the tying run when Kirk provided the next sac fly. Off we wnt to extras. Romano kept the Tigers off the board in the top half; Springer drove in the Zombie Runner in the bottom half.

Thu 13 April: Detroit 3 Toronto 1 - Detroit, their record now 2-9, stopped the bleeding behind a strong performance from Spencer Turnbull and four relievers. Chris Bassitt pitched well for the Jays, but when you only score once, you usually lose. The Tigers have now  gone 36-39 since that gruesome start

Matchups

Fri 7 July - Manoah (1-7, 6.36) vs Faedo (1-3, 5.54)
Sat 8 July - Gausman (7-4, 3.04) vs Manning (2-1, 4.84)
Sun 9 July - Bassitt (8-5, 4.09) vs Skubal (0-0, 0.00)
Toronto at Detroit, July 7-9 | 187 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#431218) #
And the older Miguel Cabrera gets, the older he gets.

He did well in his early 30s but then his body seemed to do the time warp and he landed in his mid-40s. From age 34 to 40, he has performed below replacement level for the mere price of 212 million. Anticipating some incredibly unlikely aging on Cabrera's part, the Tigers gave themselves the right to bring him back for 30M in each of the next two years. Word on the street is that they'll take a pass.

He will go into the HoF but definitely serves as just one more data point about the caution that should be exercised when locking up the hefty fellows into their 30s.

John Northey - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#431222) #
Wow, just looked Miggy up. From 2017 on (7 seasons) he has had an OPS+ over 100 just twice and if he doesn't get things going will have been sub 90 twice as well. From a DH/1B that is a nightmare. Over 652 games he has hit 261/330/382, an OPS+ of 95 for a WAR of -2.4, positive only 3 times in that stretch, never by a full 1 and once at 0.0 dead on. During that time he has averaged just over $30 mil a year. If I was a mean writer I'd push him as high as I felt I could get away with on the MVP voting and encourage others to do the same to cause his 2024 option at $32 mil to activate (top 10 MVP gets him it) just to get teams to stop doing that.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#431224) #
Miguel Cabrera is the MLB active-career leader in the categories:
games, plate appearances, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, strikeouts, batting average, total bases, sacrifice flies, intentional walks.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#431228) #
The Tigers are ravaged with injuries which is not what you'd expect of a young team.
3 of their starting pitchers are on the IL and the remaining 2 will not pitch in this series.

Javier Baez is not the guy you give a long contract to.
Mental errors, lack of hustle. None of the qualities you want in a veteran.

They will trade some of their best players in a few weeks and the guys coming back aren't necessary going to help next year.

The Tigers have only 2 left bats on the 26. McKinstry and Carpenter.
Baddoo could be activated today and Riley Greene tomorrow.

Faedo is also activated today. He was on the IL for "finger discomfort".

Austin Meadows is on the 60IL with "anxiety".
Baddoo is recovering from a strained quad and Greene from a "stress reaction" in one of his fibula.

uglyone - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#431235) #
Man, a decent outing from Manoah plus a sweep this series and we can end the first half feeling not so bad.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#431236) #
A decent outing from Manoah here does nothing for me.
6 innings and no more than 1 run against  a division rival and we can agree on something. 

Francis could probably have a decent outing against these guys.

greenfrog - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#431238) #
One game at a time. Or have we learned nothing since the Boston series (plural)?

Rodon pitches tonight for NYY against CHC. The Yankees seem vulnerable at the moment, but on the other hand, they always seem to stay in the thick of the postseason race. I wouldn’t count them out.

The Judge and Carroll injuries are a good reminder that there are real risks to signing position players to long-term deals.
Gerry - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#431240) #
Listening to Blair and Barker today, and remember Barker is plugged in through Hazel Mae.

In talking about Manoah's speedy return, they believe that some of the other four starters were not happy with the four and a half starter routine, and the increased work load on them. They think the speedy return is due in part to those feelings among some of the "other four".
Magpie - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#431243) #
In his first outing (2 July 2001) after his own purgatory through the depths of the system, Roy Halladay allowed 6 earned runs in 2.1 innings.

Which looks pretty bad. But I was there that day, as I had there when he came within one out of throwing a no-hitter in '98. And it was night and day. This was a different guy on the mound. He had arrived, and everyone could see it. That afternoon in 2001 was, for all intents and purposes, the first time we ever saw Doc.

This is a different situation, of course. Halladay needed to become something, Manoah needs to recover something. But sometimes the results really don't matter.
Magpie - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#431244) #
Francis could probably have a decent outing against these guys.

Well, yeah. It's baseball. Anybody can have a decent outing against anybody. And anybody can get beaten senseless by anybody.
Cracka - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#431246) #
they believe that some of the other four starters were not happy with the four and a half starter routine

During last night's broadcast, it was mentioned that "nobody is more excited than Chris Bassitt" about Manoah's return and how his departure changed the routine of having the five starters watch and discuss each other's bullpen sessions. I had never considered that to be a big deal before, but it certainly speaks volumes about Manoah's reputation with his teammates.

Also - just saw Jay Jackson post on Twitter that his fiancee gave birth this morning to a boy "14-15 weeks early but he is currently stable in the NICU." So today's Paternity Leave was very unexpected after last night's solid outing.
92-93 - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#431247) #
Bassitt is excited because he obviously feels strongly affected by the 4-man rotation, and his career stats with 4 vs. 5 days rest show why.

You can hear his postgame comments here. https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1676706436456300544?s=20

Hopefully the Jays aren't ruining Manoah to pacify Bassitt and it all works out.
greenfrog - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#431248) #
If it was a conditioning issue that sidelined Manoah, I can see why his rotation mates are annoyed about his absence. Especially in a prime contention year.
Nigel - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#431249) #
Time will tell but that didn’t look particularly promising to me notwithstanding he got out of the 1sr.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#431250) #
Yeah, Manoah looked the same as before. Just one inning though.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#431251) #
Which looks pretty bad. But I was there that day

I was watching that game on tv, and you could tell that, the 6 runs notwithstanding, Halladay looked like a different pitcher.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#431252) #
Bassitt has been very vocal about not getting the extra day off.
Gausman probably feels the same.
In Japan, starters only go every 7 days.

I think only Berrios would be OK with a 4 man rotation.

That still doesn't mean they had to bring Manoah back or even use Richards as a 3-inning opener.
They could stretch Thornton or rotate some of the other optional relievers to help Francis.

greenfrog - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#431253) #
This is probably going to be a baby steps situation. Right now he needs a solid start of at least five innings to start rebuilding his confidence. He doesn’t have to be perfect, just good enough.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#431254) #
The slider is still not moving much. He located a couple well but missed badly with several.
He's also not commanding the fastball.

Nigel - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#431255) #
He threw a couple of good sliders that inning. Progress. Getting Miggy out is painfully easy these days.

Man, did the Jays trade Moreno, one of the best prospects in baseball, for Kevin Pillar?
Nigel - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#431256) #
Four really good ABs to start the 4th.
Nigel - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#431257) #
And then Varsho:(. Hopeless
greenfrog - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#431258) #
Since the Jays are going to need a good left fielder next season anyway, they might as well go out and get a controllable one at the trade deadline this summer. This would allow them to situationally mix and match with Varsho this season (and postseason).
greenfrog - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#431259) #
May as well let Manoah pitch the sixth. Maybe the seventh, too.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#431260) #
L-C cheering for Atlanta, currently 2-1 over the Devil Rays, top of the 9th.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#431261) #
The umpire crew is missing crew-chief Laz Diaz. Home-plate umpire Jeremy Riggs is a Triple-A call-up.
Magpie - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#431262) #
Gausman thinking "Save some of these for me, will ya?"
Chuck - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#431263) #
The Tigers are grrrrruesome. I need eye bleach.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#431264) #
That game brought me joy.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#431265) #
Comerica Park has a strip of infield dirt from the mound to home plate, which might aid a pitcher seeking to re-establish his form?

Manoah was hiding a foreign substance where his trousers meet his socks.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#431266) #
I think they're completely fine with Merrifield in the outfield.

There is not a lot of room to improve the offense.
The guys they have need to step up, including Kirk who has an OPS of .642.
Belt has an OPS of .804. Bref has Varsho at 2.2 WAR, that's good for 4th on the team behind Bichette, Chapman and Kiermaier.

I don't see them getting someone to replace Biggio/Espinal (OPS .658/.604).

scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#431267) #
That was close to the best case scenario.
Not quite the All-Star pitcher but good enough for the 5th starter.
Now, he just needs to focus and keep doing the same thing even when things don't work out so well.

There are so many teams with 5 or more left bats than I wouldn't mind having Ryu as well.

Nigel - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#431268) #
The constant fixing of the join between pant and sock most likely wasn’t foreign substance related (although it’s possible), I thought it was a pretty blatant way of extending his time between pitches. He always did it before the ball was thrown to him by Jansen and the pitch clock doesn’t start until he catches the ball from Jansen. After the 5th I thought I saw several Tiger batters motion to the home plate umpire about it. I suspect there will quickly be a conversation about it from MLB as I thought it was pretty transparent.
hypobole - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#431269) #
Jays 9 games over .500 for the first time since beating the Mariners on April 29th. Haven't been 10 over yet this year.

Yankees got shut out and the Astros got shelled. Jays now a game up on NYY and even with Houston.
hypobole - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#431273) #
The morning of June 20, Angels were 2 games up on the Jays. Looking like deadline buyers.

Since then Jays are 10-5, Angels 4-12. And as much as the losses of Trout, Rendon and Drury have hurt the offence, KC and Oakland are the only AL teams with a worse ERA than the Angels 5.22 in that span. All this begs the question - Ohtani?
soupman - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#431274) #
Vlad for Ohtani. makes sense especially with the Vlad Sr connection.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#431277) #
" The Blue Jays are in flight! . . . There goes another one! (for Whit Merrifield!) "

Chris Leroux as radio colour-commentator: " Don't try to do too much. "

L-C loves sports clichés. " This team came to play. "

Today's game: 1:10 start time. EDT.

hypobole - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#431280) #
Bit selfish of Mrs. Springer not holding off a couple of days. Not a team player. :(
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#431281) #
Wow that's an interesting trade proposal. Give the Jays a window to sign Ohtani and im on board with that deal.
mathesond - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#431282) #
I suspect that if Vlad is as bad as posters here make him out to be, it won't be nearly enough to land Ohtani.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#431283) #
It's raining. It's pouring. The old man is snoring.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#431284) #
So are the Jays bats.
Chuck - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#431285) #
I don’t mean to dump on Guerrero, but with 0 outs and a 3-0 count, swinging at what would have been ball 4 was incredibly undisciplined.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#431286) #
Especially leading off the inning. Very undisciplined.
Chuck - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#431287) #
Guerrero's annual walk rates, other than 2021 when it was 12%, are are always around 8%, which is basically league average. I had taken it as a given that he'd be a high AVG, high OBP player with perhaps diminished power from 2021.

He's still just 24, an age when some players are still finding their major league footing, so panic is still premature. Still, I'd be curious how somebody like Szymborski (the ZIPS dude) might map out the remainder of his career. Who is his best comp at this point in his career?

Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#431288) #
Not much left in the tank after a double header, travel day, long game last night rain delay today, I guess.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#431289) #
All true. Nevertheless, Vladimir is elite. Hits the ball hard. Easy money to win the Derby.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#431290) #
It would be very 2023 Blue Jays to lose the rubber match tomorrow. Let’s hope they avoid that ignominy.
bpoz - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#431291) #
Regarding Ohtani it is best to not believe any rumors that the Jays would trade Vlad for him. AA taught me that "if you hear about it, it will not happen". I accept that AA could be wrong. I have paid attention over the years about sensational trade rumors. Generally it is the media, the agent and often the player himself starting these rumors.

The facts are that if "not" extended Ohtani will file for FA AND the LAA will offer a QO!! However he could be traded which would net the LAA some prospects and then LAA resigns him. This happened with A Chapman and NYY. I don't know how the prospects developed for NYY.

Nothing is for sure but I strongly believe that Ohtani will not be traded to the Jays. Therefore I will not pay much attention to the rumors. I said this exact same thing last year regarding J Soto to the Jays rumors.
John Northey - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#431292) #
Had to check that Chapman trade. Cubs gave up Rashad Crawford, Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres and Adam Warren for a few months of Chapman - they did win the WS that year so pretty much anything was worth it for the Cubs. Crawford has played in indy leagues for 2021/22, no record for him this year. Billy McKinney was part of the AJ Happ trade the Yanks did with the Jays (sigh) and has 0.5 WAR lifetime. Torres has 12.7 WAR for the Yankees and growing. Warren was traded 2 years later for international bonus slot money but was a good middle man for them in the pen (1 save, 11 holds, 2 blown saves, sub 3 ERA) during that stretch (2.4 WAR). I'd say the Yankees did very, very good on that. Chapman lost for a few months to get over 15 WAR plus.

Ohtani I don't see being traded. Everyone knows he is going to free agency and most assume he will sign with the Angels or Dodgers. He is the face of the Angels and Vlad the face of the Jays (for better or worse). It'd be a big risk to do that in many respects and I don't see it.
scottt - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#431293) #
The Cubs tanked for a long time to build a deep farm system and blew it up quickly.
You can say it was worth it because they won 1 WS but the Astros tanked, kept the prospects, stayed competitive for nearly a decade, won 2 WS, and several division titles.

Bref has the top Yankees hitters being worth:
Judge 2.5 WAR (49 games)
Volpe 2.1 WAR
Rizzo 1.4 WAR
Torres 1.2 WAR
Bader 1.1 WAR
Trevino 0.6 WAR
McKinney 0.5 WAR

And we're still tied.

hypobole - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#431294) #
Cubs lost 5 years in a row, but only tanked in 2012/13.
Those were the only 2 years management was trying to lose.

John Northey - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#431295) #
Don't forget the Cubs last won in 1908 and made the WS in 1945 so safe to say the fans would've given up anything for a win. FOr the equivalent the Jays would have to not win until after 2100, the Leafs until the 2070's (which seems likely).
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#431296) #
Big deadline coming up for Atkins.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#431297) #
The rotation looks pretty decent at the moment with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Manoah, Kikuchi (and Ryu hopefully ready to join the team in 3-4 weeks). If the Jays can find another controllable and good SP, that might be helpful, but I’m not sure that would be the best use of of the organization’s resources.

The bullpen looks solid with Romano, Pearson, Swanson, Mayza, Richards, Garcia, Francis, Jackson (Green) — plus the depth guys. Adding a big leverage arm would be nice, but again, would this be a good use of the organization’s limited prospect capital?

How do you make this good team into a great one? I’m not exactly sure, but I like the idea of adding a good RH hitting outfielder. Someone with exceptional on-base skills who can hit for some power and/or run well. For some reason Paul Molitor circa 1992-1993 came to mind (although he wasn’t an outfielder). Somehow the team needs more dynamism and disruption in the lineup. They need to make it harder for opposing teams to pitch to and defend against them, especially with the rule changes this year. Adding a player like that could have a catalytic effect on the lineup.

More realistically, I could see the team adding a Nelson Cruz type player (the version from a couple of years ago). Cruz is a career 146 wRC+ hitter against LHP. He was pretty good against RHP, too.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#431298) #
I don’t mean to dump on Guerrero, but with 0 outs and a 3-0 count, swinging at what would have been ball 4 was incredibly undisciplined.

Came to say this. At this point, I think we should build around Bo, not Vlad. Vlad is a "good" player, but not great / elite. And he'll age badly, IMHO.
John Northey - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#431299) #
Just watched online Elly de la Cruz stealing 2nd/3rd/home on 2 pitches (stole home on the throw back to the pitcher). All ML teams could've signed him in 2018 as an international free agent but Cincinnati got him for $65k. Ouch. A reminder of the value of having really good scouts all over the place and of being willing to spend to get these guys. Most will be nothing, but that is the same for the ML draft. It is that handful who do become something you need to get. Like Vlad, Kirk, Moreno, Gurriel Jr, Lopez (2015/16 by the Jays - 2 damn good years). In 2018 the Jays blew their wad on Orelvis Martinez ($3.5 mil). 2019 saw them get Sem Robberse & Yosver Zulueta, 2021 was big on Manuel Beltre ($2.35 mil). 2022 saw them blow $2.25 mil on Luis Meza. 2023 has them going to $4.1 on Emmanuel Bonilla. We'll see in a few years if the 2018 and beyond years were money well spent or poorly spent.
Nigel - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#431300) #
This can’t be a big trade deadline if you believe in this team. The Jays have almost nothing of consequence to trade. If you believed in this team, then they could (and should) add an 8th inning reliever and maybe a platoon LF for Varsho but they don’t begin to have the prospect capital to do anything of significance. A different story if you were thinking of reloading for next year. Then the Jays would gave a treasure trove of assets (Chapman, KK and some relievers for starters).
John Northey - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#431301) #
I see this as a tough deadline for Atkins. What are the obvious holes to fill? The pen has Green coming soon to likely give us a Romano-Swanson-Green-Richards-Mayza-Garcia strong trust, with Pearson close, then for the 8th slot you have White-Francis (both doing well this year so far), Pop, Cimber (both sucking), Jackson (doing well), Hatch & Thornton (9 1/3 IP 12 H 3 R 2 ER 5 BB 13 SO between them) seems pretty good imo.

Rotation is Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi-Manoah plus maybe Ryu (if healthy to make it 6 deep).

Remember, pitching upgrades at this time of year are EXPENSIVE. Is that where we need it? I don't think so.

So what about offense?

Checking how the Jays sOPS+ is vs the AL only how are they? sOPS+ is OPS+ vs others at the same position in the AL only. 14 teams to compare to.
C: 100 (7th), 1B: 111 (3rd), 2B: 85 (9th), 3B: 113 (5th), SS: 135 (2nd), LF: 82 (11th), CF: 96 (10th), RF: 105 (6th), DH: 110 (7th).
So below the median (7 1/2) at 2B, LF, CF only. sOPS+ of 85-82-96 for those positions with crazy good defense in LF/CF.

A RH bat to cover LF/CF sounds tempting. Merrifield in LF has a sOPS+ of 89 (Varsho 77). At 2B Merrifield is a 117 sOPS+ due to weaker offensive competition (and he hits a bit better there too). In CF it is all Varsho (71) and Kiermaier (109) and I don't see that changing. The meh's of C/RF/DH (6th or 7th) are Kirk/Jansen, Springer, Belt. No change likely at any.

So a LF ideally RH who has a great bat, and can sit at times without complaints. Tough. Jake Marisnick (Det) is somewhat tempting - a RH bat who has very good defense and can cover CF if needed and would cost nearly nothing. Ildemaro Vargas (Washington) has a 110 OPS+, switch hitter who plays everywhere and probably wouldn't cost much but has no rep as a hitter (lifetime 79 OPS+). Nelson Cruz is on waivers still I think, just an 89 OPS+ this year, 130 lifetime, a 724 OPS vs LH starters this year though so might be useful but that is a big might as he is a DH/1B now, mostly DH. I remember many wanting Robbie Grossman last winter but he has an 84 OPS+ for Texas but has an 812 OPS vs LH pitching so would've been a fit still but he wanted to play everyday.

Anyone have other targets that are realistic (not Ohtani)? I just see minor fiddling at this point unless something big lands in Atkins lap (a team desperate to dump a big contract for nothing). Maybe Randal Grichuk could come back (110 OPS+ this year for Colorado).
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#431302) #
Vlad has elite skills. I feel bad that sometimes he makes me think of the Nuke Laloosh "million dollar arm" quote.
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#431303) #
Doh - keep forgetting there are 15 teams per league now (yeah I'm old) but it doesn't change anything. Top 7 is the top half.

FanGraphs gives us WAR by position by team. How do the Jays do that way?

C: 1.8 #5; 1B: 1.4 #4; 2B: 1.6 #4; 3B: 2.7 #4; SS: 3.3 #3; LF: 2.3 #6; CF: 2.8 #5; RF: 1.4 #8; DH: 0.7 #8; NP: 14.9 #4
NP=non-pitchers I'm guessing, so a total of all maybe? I hate that they don't have mouseovers for these things.

Starting: 6.3, #7; Relief: 2.5 #6; Fielding: 2.9 #8.

That fielding stat jumps out at me - checking details the drag is Vlad at -11.5 (!), Varsho at -2.2 is 2nd worst as a LF (must be a big drop due to position I'd think), #1 is Kirk at 8.7, then Kiermaier at 7.9, big drop to Varsho in CF at 4.1, Chapman 3.3, Jansen 2.7, Merrifield at 2B 2.4. All others are between 0.9 (Bo) and -1.9 (Merrifield in LF). OOA goes from Kiermaier at +10 to Vlad -10, all others are between +5 and -3. DRS goes from 13 (KK), 9 (Varsho CF), 8 (Kirk), 7 (Chapman, Varsho LF), 3 (Berrios) ... (lots in the 1 to -2 range) ... -3 (Biggio 2B), -4 (Vlad).

So for defense Vlad is having a bad year by any measure, KK and Varsho are gods in CF. For comparison, in 2022 Kirk was #1 in DRS at +9, Jansen +5 all the way down to -4 (Tapia RF & Springer CF), -16 (Bo). Vlad was a +3 last year. That is taking roughly 1/2 a season this year vs a full 2022. Vlad is a drastic drop (winning the GG pushed his ego through the roof and he needs a wake up call maybe) while Bo went from very ugly to slightly above average.

What does this all mean? Upgrades are damn tough to do, we have lots in the meh zone, no nightmares. We need Springer to play like he is in his 20's again, Vlad to hit like in 2021, and to avoid putting Biggio at 2B more than absolutely necessary. Let Merrifield play at 2B more often. I'd love the Jays to get Kim from SD (who should've been here...sigh) with his amazing glove and 111 OPS+ bat at 2B but no way they are giving him up at a reasonable cost right now (gotta figure their GM isn't an idiot). Jays right now need Vlad 2022 defense, Vlad 2021 offense - that would solve a TON of problems, but is very unlikely to happen.
Kasi - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#431304) #
John is right this team is fine as constructed it’s just the hitters are situationally poor and that no one is really excelling all around other than Bo. You’re not going to get anyone who is really any better than any of the starters here. What I think they should do is yeah what John said find some OF who can pound LHP and do some more platooning.
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#431305) #
That is what makes this team difficult - how to upgrade if there are no glaring holes. 1993 had LF and starting pitching, 1992 needed 1 more starter, 2015 needed a few things (starting pitcher, upgrading at SS wasn't easy but they found a way). The past few years it has been bullpen and starting. Now? Maybe a RH bat off the bench who can play LF. That's about it unless you can do an upgrade ala 2015 with Tulo over Reyes (Reyes was one of the top 5 SS at the time or so it seemed, Tulo was top 2-3 iirc when you factored in defense). 2B has that potential, DH has the most potential though with Belt being OK as a DH (sOPS+ of 113 at DH, 116 at 1B) but better exists. Only Boston and the Angels are ahead of the Jays at DH and not likely to contend, but neither is giving up the ghost and Ohtani isn't being traded and the Sox won't trade Justin Turner to the Jays unless they get a crazy haul (like Ohtani he is a free agent post 2023... yeah he has a player option but it is $6.7 mil to become a free agent vs $13.4 to stay so $6.7 mil is all he'd need in free agency to justify saying 'screw it').
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 02:21 AM EDT (#431306) #
Just noticed, I ignored the NL - their top DH's are on contenders, outside of St Louis. But St Louis is mainly using Nolan Gorman at DH and he is just 23 in his 2nd year so they won't trade him for less than a kings ransom. Wonder if they'd trade Paul Goldschmidt who is in his final year before free agency and was MVP last year but is 35 with a 132 OPS+ this year. Probably not as I'm sure they expect to contend in 2024. Andrew McCutchen is having a good year (121 OPS+) for Pittsburgh, who have fallen out of contention so he might be available especially as a free agent post 2023, bats right and can play LF/RF still.

Hmmm... I might have a winner here - Andrew McCutchen might be what the Jays are looking for - a RH DH/OF making just $5 mil this year with no commitment beyond 2023, with 4 years of playoff experience (but just a 600 OPS in it over 53 PA). Pittsburgh is 8 1/2 out of the wild card, 9 1/2 out of 1st in the NL Central. Now, can the Jays get him for a reasonable price is the question.
Michael - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:32 AM EDT (#431307) #
I'm suspicious of Vlad at -11.5 for fielding. Subjectively based on the bits of the season I've watched, I think Vlad is an above average 1b fielder.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#431309) #
Perhaps the club can absorb salary in lieu of dealing (from a scarcity of) prospects?

Nelson Cruz is 43 years old, though I'm still surprised he hasn't been picked up yet.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#431310) #
Meanwhile . . . at Rogers Centre:

The first-year player draft war-room.

Ross Atkins strikes a match and ignites a hundred dollar bill.

Montecristo cigar smoke fills the air.

" What's the word? " asks the general manager.

The image of Sir Robert Border fades into embers.

A cabal of baseball power-brokers and assassins circle the room.

The mascot, Ace, loudly pounds the table.

" All right. High-school or college? "

bpoz - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#431311) #
Counting today there are 17 games left before the trade deadline. Who will sell and who will buy?

Almost all the rich and powerful teams will buy. "Buy" means add players to strengthen the ML team. LAD does not do this!! They seem to give Toronto surplus but controllable pitching for not really much. They are always in a good position (1st or 2nd in the NL West) playoff wise.

The sellers are very bad teams that have little hope of making the playoffs.

Some teams have degrees of desperation:

NYM cannot tank so they will do something to just try to look better. NYY are in decent shape to make the playoffs but if they fail it is a catastrophe. What can they say to the media/fans that take playoffs for granted and playoff nonsuccess as still bad with changes practically necessary. Philadelphia are in their window. Last years playoff success raised expectations.

New to high standings are Arizona, Baltimore, Texas and Miami. They are probably succeeding because practically everything is going right for them. They have to "strike while the iron is hot".

Due to egos Houston, SD and Seattle will add.

The Jays are in a comfortable position. They are in the playoff race which generates good revenue. IMO they will make minor moves just to show that they are active. If a Louis Castillo or Berrios is put on the block they will try for him. They won the Berrios competition and immediately extended him.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#431312) #
Marketing.

George Springer seems to have the most exposure on the team. To be candid, he has no charisma.

Vladimir has potential. Magnetism. (Arnold Schwarzenegger performs in Japanese television commercials, so Vladimir can do anything.)

Auston Matthews appears in fashion magazines. It's different, but L-C knows that angle.

Scottie Barnes probably has the biggest profile of all with the Subway sandwich promos. NBA is the big time.

All about the Sir Robert Borden* / Benjamin Franklins.
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#431317) #
Begone?
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#431318) #
Begone, I say.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#431326) #
Jays offence has been underwhelming this season, but nothing short of embarrassing the past couple of days
92-93 - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#431327) #
They've been shut out in 4 of their last 17 games heading into today.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#431328) #
Just checked the boxscore - looks like the Jays started the allstar break after Friday night.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#431329) #
Kirk with a clutch ground out to short finally broke the scoreless streak.
Chuck - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#431330) #
Cabrera might be as slow as Kirk.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#431331) #
The problem is with  the offense and there isn't any fix.
Get a big bat in LF and sit Varsho/Merrifield/Biggio/Espinal?
I don't see it.
 
The real problem is that Chapman ran out of fuel in May and Kirk has gone from All-Star to replacement level.
They've been depending on the long ball for a long time and the guy they signed to DH gets on base but isn't known for his power.

Chuck - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#431332) #
Serves Lange right for nibbling with Chapman.
92-93 - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#431334) #
Schneider wasted Lukes for little reason, and now the Jays have Kirk on 2B in the 10th as a result. After Clement PH for Biggio he should have gone to 2B with Merrifield going to LF/RF.
92-93 - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#431335) #
It all worked out in the end, but they probably should have pinch-ran for Kirk with a pitcher.
Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#431336) #
Has any Jays manager used the end of his bench less than Schneider? Lukes and Clement get an bat every second week, and usually in a blowout.

I don't know if they are any good and I still don't because an occasional at bat tells me nothing.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#431337) #
Thank goodness for Lukes. I hope the Jays don’t lose him unnecessarily. He’s earned a shot at some playing time.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#431338) #
That was incredible speed by Varsho. He may not be hitting, but the defence and baserunning are definitely an asset to this team.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#431340) #
Romano has a good slider, and it has been very effective, but he should also mix in some fastballs. He’s getting predictable.
92-93 - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#431341) #
What a huge swing from Jansen. The Astros and Yankees are currently losing, so the Jays should be squarely in a playoff spot heading into the break.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#431342) #
Imagine, Guerrero with an atrocious first half and apparently still selected to the "all-star" team - what a joke!
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#431343) #
Lukes was competent in AAA in 2021 (115 wRC+) and 2022 (111 wRC+). This year he has been fantastic in 75 PA (141 wRC+) with much-improved BB and K rates. If his defense is good, he seems like someone who could be a decent fourth outfielder (or better) in the majors for at least a few years. He's almost 29 years old.
Chuck - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#431344) #
First base in the AL is not exactly a stellar position this year. After Diaz, it's a blur of similar performances.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#431345) #
I don't really believe in clutch, but...Danny Jansen might have the clutch gene.
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#431346) #
Guerrero with an atrocious first half and apparently still selected to the "all-star" team - what a joke!

Who did you have in mind? Anthony Rizzo? Triston Casas? Spencer Torkelson? Ryan Mountcastle? Ryan Noda? Ty France? Jose Abreu? Nathaniel Lowe? Andrew Vaughn?
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#431347) #
That's twice in the last few days, Chuck. Was there a Vulcan mind-meld I didn't know about?
Chuck - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#431348) #
When someone says something provocative I always think WWMD?
Mike Green - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#431349) #
Nathaniel Lowe would be a considerably better choice than Guerrero Jr. 
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#431350) #
Nathaniel Lowe would be a considerably better choice than Guerrero Jr.

You could make the argument, but I wouldn't buy it.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#431352) #
If you check the Jays high leverage split at FG, the top 2 names are, presciently, Nathan Lukes and Danny Jansen.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#431353) #
Lowe has been clearly a better player both in the first half and over the last year and a half.  Better hitter, better baserunner and better fielder by modest margins in all spheres, but together it adds up to one win per year or so.

The only decent argument for Guerrero Jr. relies on 2021.  One more thing.  Guerrero Jr. being the home run derby is a bad thing.
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#431354) #
Fittingly hopeful/frustrating/depressing/hopeful series to end a hopeful/frustrating/depressing/hopeful first half.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#431355) #
Guerrero .276 .345 .447  13 HR
Lowe .272 .361 .425 9 HR

I prefer Vladdy's line. A first baseman who doesn't knock 20 HR in a year doesn't scream all-star to me.
Lowe was much better last year and he has actually more of down year than Vladdy.

uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#431356) #
End the first half with 4 regulars below 80wrc+.

Varsho 78, Kirk 78, Biggio 78, Espinal 71.

Basically 4 unplayable bats. The kind of production you don't like even from emergency use elite D bench players.

All these guys should have been expexted to be around league average, with Kirk well above that.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#431357) #
I don't  like Biggio as the super-utility guy who plays everywhere.
It would probably be good for all party if they could trade him.

The best use of the bench is to run platoons.
I don't think the Jays have had a true platoon since Catalanotto 20 years ago.
For a time it made sense to use fewer bench players and more bullpen pitchers.

Maybe they'll get another vet bat at the deadline. I don't see the need.

Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#431360) #
Maybe they'll get another vet bat at the deadline. I don't see the need.

I do. Not necessarily Nelson Cruz, but someone like him. A RH bat to spell Varsho/Kiermaier against LH pitching, to pinch hit for them or for Biggio in game situations. Right now, the last man on Schneider's bench, whoever it's been, is mostly sitting around and watching anyway.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#431362) #
uglyone, combined with what Gerry posted, it's almost mind-boggling Lukes and Clement have gotten almost no run considering the abysmal 1st half production from guys who keep getting trotted out.

The one game I remember Schneider starting both was against Shane Mclanahan. Nice bone he tossed them.
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#431363) #
One thing that does seem to be coming into focus is that the Rogers Centre and Vlad Guerrero just weren't made for each other. The focus this year was on his inability to hit a homer at home. Before this year, that had actually always been the one part of his offensive game that held up here. And it goes deeper than that anyway. It's rather strange - it's always been a good place to hit, and a good place for RH power hitters in particular. But he's almost 600 games into his career now, and he's hit .262/.329/.456 at the RC, and .295/.371/.519 everywhere else.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#431364) #
There is so much to do in Toronto and the Jays haven't given me any reason to watch/attend any games - aside from an inning here and there I haven't watched any baseball so far this year and I don't think I've missed much - The Braves seem the best team in baseball and that Elly De La Cruz seems exciting - hopefully I can watch them play perhaps against the Jays in the 2nd half. Seriously, has any Jays player exceeded expectations so far?
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#431366) #
A number have i think. Bo, Belt, Merrifield, Kiermaier, Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, Mayza, Richards, of the regulars.

And then the callups have been surprisingly good as a group - Pearson, Hatch, Jackson, White, Francis, Lukes, Heineman, Clement, Horwitz.
soupman - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#431367) #
So much for the dome being “his house”.
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#431368) #
I forgot chapman too.

Plenty of things have gone right for this team tbh.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#431369) #
It could be a lot worse. The Jays are tied with Houston for the second/third AL WC spot. Think of all the disappointing teams across baseball: the Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Mariners, Angels, the entire AL Central.

Ryu and Green are both on their way back. The team really just needs a good RH outfielder who can hit lefties well (as I've been saying for a while now) -- ideally someone who is controllable through at least 2024. If the team can also acquire a good power reliever, so much the better.
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#431371) #
It could be a lot worse.

Oh my yes. There have been frustrations, but that's just baseball. There are always frustrations, lots and lots and lots of them, too many to even keep track of. If the team has a good year, I know I still have to expect to lose at least 65 games. Each and every one will be frustrating in its own way.

This is the business we have chosen, or something like that.

If the team is supposed to be good - like this one - I hope they can play .600 ball. And this season, I tried to remember that the first half schedule would be much tougher. They're what - three games below a .600 pace? I'll take it. Of course, I'll take it. This is a gift of a horse, I'm not checking out its teeth.
Magpie - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#431372) #
And if anyone thinks I'm setting the bar too low - the Jays have played .600 ball for a full season exactly once in franchise history, almost forty years ago.
bpoz - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#431374) #
The Jays are ok or better so far this year. I am not panicking!!
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#431377) #
merrifield is a quality RHH OF.

unfortunately the other two 2B options haven't hit even a little bit so far.

but no need to limit a search to OF.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#431379) #
Agreed, I was thinking second base as another possibility for an upgrade, with Merrifield playing primarily LF in that scenario.

I know it’s a big ask, but finding a dynamic player who gets on base, runs well, can hit for some power, and can play defense, would be great for this lineup. Basically, another Merrifield (or better). It would also send the message that position player mediocrity won’t be tolerated indefinitely.

Before the season, I suggested that the Jays sign Jansen to a Sean-Murphy-lite extension. My position on that front hasn’t changed.
92-93 - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#431410) #
Yes, the Jays need Guerrero, Springer, and Kirk to pick up their production, but the obvious hole in the offense right now is that they roll out two defense-first CFs vs. RHP. Varsho has been by far the team's worst hitter vs. RHP; even Biggio has hit them better and he receives sporadic playing time and can't get into a groove. It's time to stop treating Varsho like an everyday player until he proves he deserves it, or until the rest of the offense is hitting up to expectations.

The Jays have the tie-breaker over the Astros, so they are the WC2 heading into the break. The tiebreakers might end up being very important, as there are no more Game 163s. They are 1-2 against TEX and 3-4 against NYY.
John Northey - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#431420) #
2B might be difficult to upgrade. On losing teams the best choice IMO is Ha-Seong Kim who should've been a Jay...sigh...  but the Padres have flopped this year and might be planning long term now but would be dumb to trade him imo (amazing defense, 113 OPS+, what isn't there to like about him?).  Really not seeing anyone else who'd be a clear upgrade on Espinal/Biggio/Merrifield.  Thus why I think the best target is a RH hitting OF like Andrew McCutchen might be the best fit.

Really, at this point it is more a situation of hope Manoah is back to form, Bassitt gets back to where he was earlier, Vlad gets closer to his 2021 form, and that Ryu & Green can provide a lift when they return (Ryu got 4 IP in today so he might be close, Green hasn't thrown a competitive pitch yet).  Plus get more than an 80 OPS+ from Varsho and 77 from Kirk.  Fingers crossed.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 02:08 AM EDT (#431421) #
50 victories in 91 games played, on-pace for 89 wins.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 03:42 AM EDT (#431422) #
Beyoncé took over Rogers Centre during the road-trip. (Ed Sheeran played a concert at the stadium last month.)
bpoz - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#431435) #
The Jays are fine in the standings IMO. Just 2 games behind Texas.

Our record would be much better if not for the play of Manoah. By not going deep into about half his games he tired out the pen for the next 1 or 2 games.

Another thing is that the Jays play half their games at the "renovated RC" and the other half all over the USA. Our OF was changed to accommodate the renovated RC IMO. Their better D has helped at home but the weakened O is probably hurting on the road. I don't know.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#431438) #
Been waiting for break for this. Quiz time.

A few days ago the C's hit 4 triples in a game. Mentioned the 2017 Jays hit 5 all season. That is a major league record. Anyone remember or want to guess who hit the 5? Hint: no one hit more than 1.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#431442) #

Last year ---> This year

* Kirk 306pa 155wrc+ --> Kirk 227pa 78wrc+
* Guerrero 396pa 135wrc+ --> Bichette 402pa 134wrc+
* Springer 353pa 128wrc+ --> Chapman 369pa 124wrc+
* Gurriel 331pa 126wrc+ ---> Guerrero 384pa 120wrc+
* Teoscar 284pa 124wrc+ ---> Belt 233pa 123wrc+
* Chapman 340pa 107wrc+ ---> Springer 379pa 111wrc+
* Bichette 411pa 105wrc+ --> Merrifield 330pa 107wrc+
* Espinal 353pa 103wrc+ ---> Kiermaier 241pa 109wrc+
* Tapia 254pa, 95wrc+ -----> Varsho 350pa 78wrc+

* Biggio 158pa 112wrc+ ----> Jansen 195pa 103wrc+
* Zimmer 84pa 37wrc+ ------> Biggio 155pa 78wrc+
* Jansen 75pa 145wrc+ -----> Espinal 134pa 71wrc+

* Collins 74pa 108wrc+ ----> Lukes 24pa 76wrc+
* Moreno 60pa 71wrc+ ------> Heineman 20pa 146wrc+
* Heineman 16pa 86wrc+ ----> Horwitz 10pa 102wrc+
* Katoh 11pa 119wrc+ ------> Clement 9pa 141wrc+
* Capra 7pa 112wrc+ -------> Luplow 7pa -49wr




1. We completely lost Kirk's super-elite 1st half from last year and didn't replace it. Kirk himself has fallen off so badly that even getting back to league averagish seems optimistic at this point, let alone to elitish.

2. Most of the rest of the lineup is pretty similar overall.

3. What should have been better depth this year without needing a Tapia in the lineup or a Zimmer as a bench regular has turned out not to be the case at all, as all of Varsho, Biggio, and Espinal have fallen off from being league average type offensive contributors to pretty much useless offensively. I guess the silver lining is that odds are they get back to league averagish the rest of the way but that's hardxly a lock.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#431444) #
Yeah so maybe i should group it:

"Similar Enough"

* Vlad 396pa 135wrc+ --> Bo 402pa 134wrc+
* Springer 353pa 128wrc+ --> Chapman 369pa 124wrc+
* Gurriel 331pa 126wrc+ --> Vlad 384pa 120wrc+
* Teoscar 284pa 124wrc+ --> Belt 234pa 123wrc+
* Chapman 340pa 107wrc+ --> Springer 379pa 111wrc+
* Bo 411pa 105wrc+ --> Whit 330pa 107wrc+
* Tapia 254pa 95wrc+ --> Kiermaier 241pa 109wrc+

Note that that's similar offensively, but a big upgrade defensively.

And then...."Not similar at all".....

* Espinal 353pa 103wrc+ -> Varsho 350pa 78wrc+
* Kirk 306pa 155wrc+ --> Kirk 227pa 78wrc+
* Jansen 75pa 145wrc+ --> Jansen 195pa 103wrc+
* Biggio 158pa 112wrc+ --> Biggio 155pa 78wrc+
* Zimmer 84pa 37wrc+ ---> Espinal 134pa 71wrc+
* Collins 74pa 108wrc+
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#431445) #
Quiz time.

I guess not Kendrys Morales, José Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, or Justin Smoak.

Kevin Pillar must be one. the 2nd baseman, his name slips my mind. Russell Martin maybe. Josh Donaldson?

hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#431446) #
Pillar had one. But also one of the "guess not" guys
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#431482) #
oh, Ezequiel Carrera. gotta be Zeke.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#431485) #
Zeke is 2 of 5.

Nigel - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#431487) #
I have this weird memory of Kendry hitting a triple resulting from some wild OF misplay. Entirely possible that is a Monty Python memory and not a real one though:)
John Northey - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#431489) #
I'm guessing Russell Martin just due to his never seeming slow as a catcher should be. Dang, hard to remember who was on that 2017 team as I tried to erase it and 2018 from memory they were so bad and frustrating to watch.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#431490) #
Kendry never tripled as a Jay. He did hit one for Oakland after we traded him. Only had 3 extra base hits for the A's, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 hr.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#431496) #
Not Martin either.

More triple weirdness. The year after the Jays set the MLB record, the Cards set the NL record by only hitting 9. One of the 9 was by a pitcher - his only hit that year.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#431506) #
Devon Travis?
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#431507) #
Pretty sure Devon was gone before 2017. One triple guy was a MI though.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#431509) #
I was wrong on Devon - played 2017 and 18.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#431510) #
Ryan Goins.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#431513) #
Goins is number 3. 2 more.
Gerry - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#431514) #
Springer and Jay Jackson have been activated off the paternity list (you only have a limited time on it).

Ernie Clement and Bowden Francis have been optioned so Nate Lukas and Jay Jackson get to stay for now.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#431515) #
We need a home run derby thread!

Rutschman is a very impressive young hitter.

hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#431516) #
My home run derby prediction:

Against all odds, Vladdy will manage to hit into a double play.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#431517) #
Vladdy displaying his lack of conditioning.

Chuck - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#431518) #
Props to Schneider for sacrificing his time off to support Guerrero. Any little thing that might get him going in the second half, I guess.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#431519) #
Couple of observations. Vladdy looked very fatigued after round 1 of the derby. And now (after that same round) he’s wearing some kind of athletic support around his waist—does this mean he has a sore back? As I said a couple of weeks ago, he probably shouldn’t be in this competition.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#431520) #
Based on his exhaustion he should be doing a home run derby every day.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#431521) #
Julio Rodriguez was awesome.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#431522) #
Gonna be tough for Vladdy against Rodriguez in the semis.
Chuck - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#431523) #
It was all sliders away with Myers. Looked like he was auditioning to be the Mets’ closer.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#431524) #
Alonso was probably dead before started, but his pitcher didn't do him any favours. Lot of balls on the outer third.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#431525) #
Vladdy looks like he’s physically ailing. But he’s in the final.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#431526) #
Still think this would be a nice boost for him to win it.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#431527) #
Phew.

A last second loss to a Ray would have been pretty annoying.

Nice one vladito.
Magpie - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#431528) #
He set a record for the final round? Not too shabby.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#431529) #
Vladdy brings strongman rule to Seattle.
Magpie - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#431531) #
The Derby is sort of like BP. Except it's not really like BP because no one takes that many swings at once in batting practice. Typically it's five swings and you get out of the cage and the next man in your group of four or five takes his five swings. You do three rounds of that, and then the next group steps in.
christaylor - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#431532) #
I just watched a video of Vlad's 2019 derby. The differences are striking in the expected way but surprisingly his swing was sweeter and more effortless. Not a great sign even for glorified BP.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#431533) #
To me the #1 thing is Vlad was smarter this time - he recognized it is a marathon not a sprint. He did enough in each round to get to the next one, and took breaks as needed. He had a group of supporters who kept him hydrated and relaxed. He clearly learned a lot from 2019 and applied it this time. If he has a good 2nd half I suspect this will be seen as the launching pad of it. And if so we'll see him do this again in the future. I am sure he wants to get 4 titles so he can be #1 for the HR Derby.

Hopefully the exhaustion he felt will also push him for next year to get into better shape too. Hey, whatever it takes.
Ducey - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#431534) #
What the hell with the telecast saying Vlad is the 2nd Cuban to win the derby?

I mean, that is incredibly stupid on some many levels
Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#431536) #
Hopefully the exhaustion he felt will also push him for next year to get into better shape too.

I haven't yet heard anyone saying that the players Guerrero beat - largely because his stamina was superior - need to get in better shape. Strange.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#431537) #
Hope Vlad didn't use up all his home run swing on the derby - there is still the 2nd half of the season.
scottt - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#431538) #
The Derby is like working in the batting cage.
Except it's live practice and the pitcher is not consistent.

scottt - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#431539) #
It's a million dollar win with a huge trophy, a humongous (gold?) medallion and ... a home run jacket!

It was a Hollywood script for Vladdy.
He had the easiest first round even though he put on a respectable performance to set the stage.

The first rounds were brutal and many hitters exhausted themselves.
Julio hit 41 to take out Alonso--not knowing how many he would need--and could only manage 20 in the second round.

Arozarena didn't have enough left to get the extra 30 sec which makes a huge difference in the final round.
Vladdy set a new mark for the final round and the Cuban had to try to beat that in a shorter time.

When you run, two things can happen to force you to stop, either you run out of breath or your muscles can't carry you any longer. Vlad is weaker on the physio side but his muscular condition is great. The physio aspect isn't really that important for a first baseman. He only has to sprint for a few seconds at a time.
Nobody runs out of breath during a baseball AB.

I don't know why he was wearing a lifter's belt. That's used to stabilize the core when handling heavy weight.
I doubt anything is wrong with his back.  

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#431540) #
Easy money to win the Derby.

Leaside Cowboy called it.

[ handshakes & satisfied frowns ]

uglyone - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#431541) #
"I haven't yet heard anyone saying that the players Guerrero beat - largely because his stamina was superior - need to get in better shape. Strange."

Because they weren't gasping for breath after a minute of swinging, even though most were swinging more often.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#431542) #
Are we seriously complaining about Vlad after he won the home run derby?
Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#431545) #
Are we seriously complaining about Vlad after he won the home run derby?

Hey, those nits aren't going to pick themselves.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#431547) #
Wasn't complaining - more observing.  He was drained at the end and I'm betting he wants to win this again.  He knows how he felt and what it'll take to move to a new level, and given his history I'm sure he'll do just that.  First time he figured out pacing was needed, this time he sees more cardio endurance will be needed to keep the title.  All good.  The killer was his needing to do the final 2 rounds in a row, while the other guy had nearly an hour break.  That is just luck of the draw, but for 2024 he'll need to plan on that happening again.

What would be fun to see added is a 'line drive' contest for guys like Bo - most balls hit at 100+ MPH without going out of the park.  That could be a fun challenge to watch - home runs are a negative then.  But what I really want is a bunt challenge where you need to hit a target (could be 4 set up - 2 on each side, one half way between home and a plate, the other 2 in areas guys like Varsho like to hit it past the mound between 1B/2B or 3B/SS.  Points for a bullseye, or for landing in a circle near the bullseye.  None for missing it.  Here is an example of one - Korean Baseball Bunt Derby
uglyone - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#431548) #
The complaint came BEFORE he won the derby to be fair.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#431549) #
It's a taxing event. Everyone was gassed by the end. Guerrero was the one who actually maintained his form through multiple rounds.

Apparently he had to be talked into competing again by his family. He's not really a natural home run hitter. He doesn't have that classic uppercut that generates lots of Big Flies like Delgado had, or one of those smooth, gorgeous, seemingly effortless swings like Griffey had. (Although if Julio Rodriguez was left-handed, we would have heard about his pretty stroke all night long.) Guerrero is basically a line drive hitter, who happens to be so strong and hits balls so hard that many of them travel a long, long way.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#431550) #
Jays 16W-11L in June. 5W-3L in July. This is nice.

May was very bad and I seriously felt like complaining but I did not want to plagiarize.

I fully expect very tough seasons in the AL from now on.
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#431551) #
Are we seriously complaining about Vlad after he won the home run derby?

Yes, Vladdy is the pin cushion that many here love to puncture with their needles. I don't think the man is above critique -- but it does feel kind of excessive at times.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#431552) #
We were gleeful in 2021. We are greedy by 2023.

Congratulations to Vladimir!
hypobole - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#431554) #
Disagree. The HR derbies show what he is capable of. He has elite power and elite contact skills. Why do 47 players have more than his 13 HR's this year? Maybe now is not the time to complain, but the complaints are legit.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#431557) #
VGJ has 32 extra-base hits in 384 PAs, leading to a thoroughly average .169 IsoP.

He has been unlucky so far this year. His xBA is .305; his xSLG is .545, leading to an xIsoP of .245. That is indeed consistent with a line-drive hitter with power. Hopefully his luck will change.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#431558) #
"Are we seriously complaining about Vlad after he won the home run derby?"

Damn right - I don't give a toss about the home run derby or anything allstar - I will stop complaining about Vlad when he starts producing in games that matter.
mathesond - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#431560) #
Geez, if Vlad's so terrible, we'd be lucky to get a middle reliever for him in trade.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#431561) #
Vlad's not terrible by any means. He's like a kid with a 180 IQ getting B+'s in school. Capable of much more.

JMO, but Espinal, a guy with no power is much more suited to a line drive swing. With Vladdy's power, a Josh Donaldson swing would be much more ideal.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#431562) #
I will stop complaining about Vlad when he starts producing in games that matter.

All the games matter. If you're thinking of situations within the game...

This year, with Runners in Scoring Position, Guerrero is hitting .333/.398/.500.

Two outs and Runners in Scoring Position? He's hitting .438/.486/.750.

When it's Late and Close, he's hitting .316/.333/.509.

In High Leverage situations, he's hitting .396/.462/.585.

Maybe he needs to improve his production in situations when it doesn't matter quite so much...
Magpie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#431563) #
With Vladdy's power, a Josh Donaldson swing would be much more ideal.

I kind of agree with that, and Guerrero may even agree as well. He does enjoy hitting dingers. It's just that his natural stroke is something else. And there's probably been a bit of reluctance, on his part and that of his coaches and managers, to mess around with his swing.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#431565) #
Went to FG for the Roden/Zac Cook post in the draft thread, found this on Vlad.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vlad-jr-makes-history-with-derby-win-but-hes-coming-up-short-elsewhere/

Jaffe points out some issues, but seems baffled by the huge gap in the SLG/xSLG.

His conclusion? Hopefully his luck will change.

Hodgie - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#431567) #
Vlad's conditioning is killing him in the field and on the bases and only serves to exacerbate the horrible luck he has had at the plate. Take a peek at this FG Leaderboard. One of those things is not like the other.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#431569) #
American League

1 Marcus Semien, Rangers, 2B
2 Shohei Ohtani, Angels, DH
3 Randy Arozarena, Rays, LF
4 Corey Seager, Rangers, SS
5 Yandy Díaz, Rays, 1B
6 Adolis García, Rangers, RF
7 Austin Hays, Orioles, CF
8 Josh Jung, Rangers, 3B
9 Jonah Heim, Rangers, C

National League

1 Ronald Acuña Jr., RF, Braves
2 Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
3 Mookie Betts, CF, Dodgers
4 J.D. Martinez, DH, Dodgers
5 Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals
6 Luis Arraez, 2B, Marlins
7 Sean Murphy, C, Braves
8 Corbin Carroll, LF, Diamondbacks
9 Orlando Arcia, SS, Braves
92-93 - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#431573) #
Depends on who you mean by "we", electric carrot. You may notice that some of the complaints/negativity come from posters who admitted last season they find it hard to root for the Jays, and who actively enjoy the Orioles' success.

Bichette was hitting .257/.302/.418 at the break last year. There is lots of baseball yet to be played, and I expect a huge 2nd half from Vladdy.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#431576) #
He's like a kid with a 180 IQ getting B+'s in school. Capable of much more.

This is exactly the thing with Vlad. His statcast data is elite. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills and is capable of hitting the ball to all fields at a million miles per hour. It pains me he has a .787 OPS. He shouldn't be anywhere near such a number. He's capable of so much more.

Although I have to say I find it a bit funny the criticism in this thread of his conditioning or looking 'gassed' at the HR derby last night...the very derby that he won over everyone else. Anyway.....

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#431582) #
and who actively enjoy

I admit it. I actively appreciate the Orioles’ success.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#431583) #
1st Half Breakdown:

* vs Top-10: 29gms, 14-15, -16rdiff (26gr)
* vs Mid-10: 34gms, 14-20, -20rdiff (30gr)
* vs Bot-10: 28gms, 22-6, +75rdiff (15gr)

So being around .500 against the top-10 is solid. Especially since this holds against the top-5 as well. A bit of a worry that the run differential against those top teams isn't quite as pretty, but not a huge deal.

22-6 against the bad teams is good as well. taking care of business and pounding them on the run difference. The worry there is that we don't have a lot of games against those weaklings in the 2nd half.

But 14-20 against the mediocre teams, with a heavy negative run differential, is not even close to good enough for a team that wants to contend. What makes it all the more painful is that this disastrous performance against the mids is almost entirely due to going 0-7 with a -20 rdiff against the frikken red sox....a team that might not even qualify as mediocre if the jays hadn't embarassed themselves against them.

Anyways, those are the teams we have to turn it around against in the 2nd half. The Mids.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#431586) #
(omnipotent) I.Q. = 2000
hypobole - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#431587) #
Almost forgot this one. Magpie mentioned .600 ball as the mark. There are 3 teams there, Atlanta, Tampa and the O's. No surprise.

Got a bit of a shock when I saw the team with the 4th best record in baseball- the Miami Marlins?!?!
hypobole - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#431590) #
And some unfinished business. L-C got Pillar, Goins and Zeke Carrera as members of the 2017 Jays record setting 5 triples all season club. The other 2 were Steve Pearce and Justin Smoak.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#431592) #
That 2017 team was quite slow.  They were 14th in the AL in stolen bases, with only Zeke and Pillar any kind of threat at all.  Teoscar came up late in the year and didn't have any triples in 2017, but seven the following year. 
scottt - Wednesday, July 12 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#431601) #
Vlad's conditioning does not impact him on the field at all.
His defense looks good. He might have the best arm at 1B.
His range looks fine.

I don't remember him tagging a run on a pick off move.
Is that part of the defense?

He's made too many outs of the path, but the low run scored is more a reflection of who hits behind him.
He's got his share of RBI and if the Jays are really bad with runners in scoring position, that is not Vlad's fault.

Part of conditioning is staying on the field.
Nothing to complain about there.
Contrast that to Kiermaier.

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