Reposting the key part of my last post for those who missed it: “Scherzer is out for the rest of the regular season, and maybe also the playoffs, with a strain of his teres major muscle.”

This still doesn't help the fact the Toronto offence struggles against even AAA quality arms...

(Big) if the Jays get in the playoffs, the ability to generate offence will only get more challenging.

Sharp defence is always a good thing.  Kikuchi has to feel pretty good about balls in play. 

Because its seems to have happened almost every game this year, I can confirm (having reviewed every box score of the year (manually)) that yesterday was only the 31st game of the season in which the Jays were held scoreless through 5 innings of a game. There have been a further 16 games when they were held scoreless through 4. So 47 times this year the Jays were scoreless through 4. That seems like a very high number except, weirdly, I was actually expecting the number to be even higher than that.

Kikuchi is dealing.

Kirk is the 8th players this year to have 20 GDP's, only 1 behind Vlad now. Except Vlad's at 619 PA's, Kirk 368. Next worse with as few PA's as Kirk is Gabby Moreno, 14 in 323 PA's.

I don't know why you wouldn't start a runner on first with Kirk at the plate.  It should be almost automatic. 

Why wouldn’t Kirk take some pitches and let Espinal try to steal second? As the broadcast crew noted, runners are 12/13 stealing bases off Montgomery this year. Especially with Kirk’s power outage and GIDP propensity.

I really don’t like the leadoff walk to Seager this inning. You don’t want to let Seager beat you, but with a lefty with good stuff on the mound, none out, and none on, you want to go after him.

They wouldn't have challenged Varsho's arm on that one. 

4 runs feels insurmountable for this offence these days

Espinal is not a basestealer.  12-13 isn't that bad in the current environment.  Montgomery has thrown 161 innings, so runners have attempted to steal  about once every 1 and 1/2 games. 

Quite the response inning there.

Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, and now maybe even Bo.....a whole lotta young talent kinda falling apart.

not sure what that says about the org's development program.

I don't think I've seen a jays offense that was less enjoyable to watch in my almost 40 years of watching.

Francis is good for this batter and that's it.

I noticed practically every hit/out from non-Schneider hitters tonight through 5 innings were either hit to center or the other way. Seems like Schneider is the only one trying to or capable of pulling the ball. Something is not right with the hitting philosophy at the big league level. It's not just Vlad, it's everyone who has spent more than 60 days in the same room with Guillermo Martinez and the current hitting coaches. If/when the Jays fall out of the race, then at the minimum they need to replace the hitting coaches. Even if you want to put more blame on the hitters for not performing, there's no way you can keep the hitting coaches after this type of season. Almost everyone on the roster underachieved, some significantly.

Hey guys! Just got home from seeing a friend about to put the game on and see the scorOH MY GODDDDD NOOOOOO…

Well… at least my friend’s little baby daughter is super adorable.

how many days until Bo goes back on the DL?

They look very bad right now.

Vladdy, Kirk, Varsho, Espinal, Chapman since April…that is a lot of very unproductive offense. And Springer has been just OK (108 wRC+) compared to his usual lofty standards. Add in the mediocre baserunning and execution issues and…blech.

No idea what the front office should do about this group in the off-season. Or who should be in the front office making those decisions.

even more painful when you realize that without the Schneider miracle we're probably not even close to a playoffs spot at the moment.

FIRE GIBBONS

https://twitter.com/Middaughsome/status/1702016031672144142

The Schneider/Clement/Horwitz miracle, to be more inclusive.

Might have been worth trying Lukes or Roden as well.

at least we were saved from having to watch horrible stuff like this:

The October 3, 2021 Jays will probably end up being the best Jays team of this window of contention.

Sample quote from that day:

“Those guys came out to play all series,” Baltimore’s Trey Mancini said. “That’s one of the best offenses I’ve ever seen, personally.”

I conquer, greenfrog

fire this manager at least. give us our pound of flesh.

I don't think Schneider can stay on as manager. Definitely not hitting coach.This is a team meeting kinda game.

Disappointing series so far from Springer, Bo and Vladdy. They’ve basically done nothing offensively at the top of the order. In three games, they’ve combined for three hits (including Vladdy’s infield hit tonight), none of them for extra bases.

fire this manager at least. give us our pound of flesh.

I hope I never get to a point where I think a stranger being fired from their job is something I am entitled to by right.

Yeah anyone who's ever wanted a baseball manager fired is an awful person.

The body politic is the mob.

I’m just not sure it’s the manager’s fault. The previous manager couldn’t extract better performance from largely the same group. I think this is a 88-90 win team on true talent (and thought so before the season). If you think the true talent level is higher, then, fair enough, change the manager. But the evidence is mounting it’s the horses not the jockeys.

Vincent Price starring in " Theatre of Blood " (1973) colourfully performs William Shakespeare in quite the same mood.

Oh i'd much rather the general managers get the axe instead but that's a pipe dream.

There is a clear problem this year - it lands under bad luck for some things, bad planning/execution for others.

Luck: Vlad's numbers - everything screams '140+ OPS+' in his line drives, exit velocity, etc., suggesting in 2024 he should be a LOT better in the numbers that count. Varsho likewise shouldn't be this bad with the bat, but his bad is balanced by KK's good - flip their batting stats and we'd have been happy (80 OPS+ to KK, 111 to Varsho).

Aging: Springer finally is getting old. 106 OPS+ despite being as healthy as possible for him (139 games so far out of 145). Maybe he needs more days off.

Kids going bad: Kirk - 92 OPS+ was not expected by anyone, but his defense has been great (what is it with the Jays and good bat, no field guys becoming great field, meh bat - hopefully he keeps following Jansen's path and gets the bat going again). Nor was Manoah's demotion and pity party (73 ERA+).

Poor planning: No RH bat off the bench day 1 - very weird given there were free agents (one has been pounding us this week) available to be signed. And then we find one in the system in Schneider with Clement also appearing to be a decent bat now. The AAAA pitchers signed (or already here) were not effective enough to give even 1 start to (Zach Thompson, Casey Lawrence, Drew Hutchison, Thomas Hatch, Trent Thornton, nor was the expected #6 guy: Mitch White.

Poor use of tools: guys like Biggio left in the lineup way too long when slumping horribly, same for Merrifield right now, Espinal has had a nightmare season but seems to be doing well right now (one of the few hitting in this series). DeJong was a disaster (-62 OPS+, can't be seen as anything but a disaster). Merrifield in the leadoff slot for 28 games was probably 20 more than needed. Seems Schneider is addicted to tinkering though as the most used lineup was used 6 times, just 6 lineups used 2 or more times.

For starting a game just 3 catchers used (thankfully), 3 in CF (Lukes once), but 10 at DH (and probably going to grow as the days wind down).

So the question becomes what to do with this? IMO the talent was/is there for a good playoff run and they should've easily won 90+, especially with the good health for the starting rotation. Do the Jays do a 1990/1991 winter where they changed the culture of the team by trading the biggest names on the team or do they hold Vlad & Bo through 2025 hoping they put it together? It'd be the gutsiest move since that winter if they trade either of them, but there might be a partner in San Diego again (ironically) as they had a very disappointing season that on paper should've been a lot better. Soto has 1 more year until free agency, do they trade his one year for 2 of Vlad? Would you do a 'holy crap' deal of Vlad & Bo for Soto & Kim? 1B/SS for OF/2B - dang, hadn't intended that but it does match up. But years of control are 2 each for Vlad & Bo, 1 for Soto, 1 for Kim (maybe 4 for Kim but depends on language in his deal - players from outside the Americas often get a clause making them free agents once their original deal ends, see Ryu for an example). I'd be damn tempted to do it but boy would it be a risk for both teams. Just like the McGriff-Fernandez for Carter-Alomar one was. But it would cause a massive shift in how the team plays and is seen. I doubt Atkins does something like that though. I'm hoping right now that they go all-in on Ohtani or something else big this winter (Cody Bellinger is the only other hitter of note I think in free agency and the Jays have chased him for years).

Do you change the manager? Joe Maddon is available and again, would change the culture quickly. No idea who would be a good hitting coach (doubt Cito wants to do anything at this stage as he is pushing 80) who is available. The guy in AAA might be worth promoting though.

Of course, all these will continue to be questions into the offseason, win or lose. The Jays aren't out of it by any means, just 1 game back with Seattle and Texas having a stack of games against each other where the Jays can make hay if they just play well vs the Yankees & Rays & Red Sox...hmmm.... well, I choose to stay optimistic anyways.

Not to worry - Wins and Losses are such a relic of 20th century thinking, only people like the late Joe Morgan and other neanderthals think it's important. Analytics, that's the thing worth drooling over and the Jays are doing great! I'm told that the Jays will be unveiling the analytics trophy at the home opener next season.Excited!

Btw, there's still lots of time for the Jays to catch them "lucky" Orioles.

I was talking to my folks during the game the other day and i noticed they definitely feel like the game is over any time the jays are down. It seems that way online as well.

I’ve typed a few comments about how every time I have the braves on, it seems like they’re coming back from a deficit. They never seem out of it. The second half 2015 team here is the last time the Jays felt like that. I haven’t submitted any of those posts because it’s just too “vibes based” but since it’s come up repeatedly I wonder what’s behind it. It seems so widespread. The entire year the Jays have been a great run prevention team that can’t hit. If Manoah had been anything close to what he was the previous two years they’re in the division race. If Varsho doesn’t lose 100pts slugging despite not having to catch…they probably win a couple more games. If Vlad doesn’t lost 10m off his batted ball distance they’re probably safely in the playoffs.

A bunch of things have gone better than expected but a bunch of supposed key players have failed. I think the fact Berrios has turned from an untradeable albatross contract back into a front end starter has been under the radar because Kiluchi has been even better relative to last year. The bullpen has been the best we’ve seen since…maybe since 92-93.

It’s so strange because the jays really just need to make it to the sixth with a lead and they’re probably hanging on modest nights. Romano *seems* bad but he’s converted all but 3 save opportunities. Bautista who seemed dominant blew 6 saves this year.

“The vibes are off” seems to be the problem and it’s tiring to me to hear it might in and out when there’s so much positive. Fans seems to be in a year long sulk about a team that’s playing meaningful games in September. I really hope the players have a bit more grit than what i have heard and seen constantly online and in my personal life.

Yeah anyone who's ever wanted a baseball manager fired is an awful person.

A pound of flesh literally means something someone thinks they are entitled to as a right, regardless of the distress it causes to another person. You said "at least give us our pound of flesh." The phrase is explicitly about someone feeling entitled to something and disregarding the impact an action has another person. You can want Schneider fired, but that's an extremely callous way to phrase it.

This team has been outscored in this series 26-7 so far. I'm not qualified to answer whether John Schneider is a good manager or not, but that doesn't immediately suggest he is the glaring problem.

I think people are feeling disappointed because this was supposed to be the biggest series of the year, with a “playoff atmosphere,” and the Jays have been crushed by the Rangers by a combined score of 26-7 in the first three games.

It is important for the Jays to win today’s game. Every game counts and we don’t know how Houston, Seattle, Texas and Toronto are going to stack up at the end of the season. The Jays tiebreak status with respect to Seattle and Texas means that they need to start securing wins now.

Soupman, I can see where you're coming from but despite the positives, a lot of fans feel like this team is underachieving, especially on offense. I only watched sporadically after it was 4-0, but found it interesting that even the announcers seem to be getting fed up. One comment was that " if several players were having average seasons offensively then the team would be comfortably in a playoff position". Buck Martinez said plainly, " This is not a playoff team".

For something positive, Ernie Clement made a sparkling defensive play at short early in the game, one of the best I've seen this year, and Davis Schneider made another nifty play for the next out. Clement had a hit later on and looks like a decent player.

There's hope - the Astros just obliterated the Rangers 39-10 in Arlington and now the Rangers are in a WS spot - also finishing in the 3rd WS spot is rewarded with playing the Twins.

Hey guys you don't have to feel guilty about being mad at your team for absolutely pooping their pants in a massive september series against what was an ice cold team coming in.

You don't have to pretend that this is just expected and par for the course and not worth being upset about.

In other news, the Braves have clinched their sixth straight NL East title. Fangraphs gives them an impressive 30.3% chance of winning the World Series (the Jays have a 2.6% chance).

I think management needs to go. Front office is much trickier for me because their big mistake was believing that the core was good enough to build around which was a mistake than anyone would have made. They couldn't look at 2021 and think "Well, what if Vladdy actually sucks? We'd better not spend money just in case".

The team just looks so listless and almost indifferent. The atmosphere in the stadium feels the same. I think some of the poor atmosphere in the dome can also be attributed to the extra playoff spot. If the Jays were in the thick of it for one spot, it would be a big deal but playoffs have been (predictably) massively devalued. Making the playoffs just isn't a very big deal when 12 teams make it.

"I hope I never get to a point where I think a stranger being fired from their job is something I am entitled to by right."

Thanks Katie. Sports logic too often borrows from the logic of the despot and/or the narcissist.

Definitely both despotic and narcissistic to think that the lucky guys who hold 1 of the 30 best jobs in their field in the world should be held to high standards.

"A pound of flesh literally means something someone thinks they are entitled to as a right, regardless of the distress it causes to another person. You said "at least give us our pound of flesh." The phrase is explicitly about someone feeling entitled to something and disregarding the impact an action has another person. You can want Schneider fired, but that's an extremely callous way to phrase it."

Yeah lets take everything we read on the internet literally. That's sure going to add up.

"4 runs feels insurmountable for this offence these days"

I didn't catch if someone else pointed this out yet, but according to the Athletic this morning July 9th against the Tigers (Jano HR IIRC) was the last time the team came back from a 3-run deficit.

The performance backs up the feeling and this team doesn't seem to be able to put up that 3-run HR when down.

John,

Nice write up. I've heard Alonso will set the trade price after he's dealt this winter. If Vlad is traded it would likely happen after Alonso moves. You also forgot a new name to the trade market: Mike Trout. Apparently the Angels are speaking to teams about trading him and some people are saying he requested the trade. He has 7 years and about 280 million left on his deal. He's 32.

Your "Over the hill injury plagued generational talent" for our "in his prime unrealized potential" generational talent?

" Kid Colorado " Kevin Gausman will right the ship and send those Texas Rangers out of Dodge City.

"Your "Over the hill injury plagued generational talent" for our "in his prime unrealized potential" generational talent?"

For me, Trout has negative trade value. Still a fantastic player but 32 and hasn't played a full season since 2019. The 4 lowest WAR totals of his career were the last 4 seasons. He isn't really a CFer anymore Is he valuable? Absolutely. I'd love him on the Jays but 7/$35 is massive contract. Angels would have to eat a fair bit of it to get real talent back I think.

"July 9th against the Tigers (Jano HR IIRC) was the last time the team came back from a 3-run deficit."

sweet jesus.

Reminder:

Only two more seasons of control for Bo and Vlad.

7/$35 is massive contract. Angels would have to eat a fair bit of it to get real talent back I think.

Indeed. Were Trout a free agent today, would anyone sign him for 7/35? Either the Angels have to give him away for nothing, to be done with the contract (and take the massive PR hit all at once in losing both Trout and Ohtani) or, like you said, eat a lot of salary if they expect some talent in exchange.

trying to end the italics

"I actually think it’s time for the team to start contemplating it’s *next* window of contention. The time for patches with an expensive free agent or two is coming to a close. "

I think it might be even better to contemplate that the whole notion of "rebuilding" is just management BS fan hopium for "we're not going to spend money".

In pound of flesh news, Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom less than 4 years after he was hired away from Tampa.

Chaim Bloom doesn't even get 4 years in Boston.

By year 4 of the shapiro dynasty the jays had gone from an elite playoffs team all the way down to a bottom 5 team in baseball.

The Jays problems seem to run deeper than not having that one additional middle-of-the-order bat.

-Multiple players are frequently having non-competitive PAs

-The farm system is weak (though arguably better than we thought in the spring)

-There may be coaching or development issues at the minor-league and major-league levels

-Key players like Vladdy, Kirk, Varsho, and Manoah have taken a big step backward in their performance

I don't see how lavishing money on a big free agent would help with those foundational problems.

“ I think it might be even better to contemplate that the whole notion of "rebuilding" is just management BS fan hopium for "we're not going to spend money"”

So your theory is that draft position plays no part in a team’s ability to acquire elite talent? It’s all just about being cheap?

The Bloom thing is weird because it feels like he was given the order to cut spending and so had to trade Mookie and do a lot of budget-cutting moves. Like, it feels like they were expecting Dombrowski success without spending money or emptying the farm system. He clearly didn't do a good job but also, it's pretty unclear what the Red Sox ownership wanted/expected.

pretty much.

I think the Orioles have maybe one drafted player of significance on their roster that the jays didn't also have the opportunity to draft.

In addition to all their other highly-regarded prospects, the O's are rocking three prospects on this week's BA Hot Sheet (the third was acquired in a trade):

No. 1 Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
Team: High-A Aberdeen (South Atlantic)

Age: 19

Why He’s Here: .474/.545/1.105 (9-for-19), 6 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Throughout the season the 19-year-old Basallo has been a weekly fixture on the hot sheet. After cracking the Hot Sheet Top 10 last week after playing just two games, Basallo continued his hot hitting in the final week of the High Class A season. He homered in three consecutive games on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, recording six hits and seven RBIs over those three contests. Basallo’s plus-plus power is already playing in games and hinting at middle-of-the-order impact. Basallo finished the season hitting .307/.398/.547 with 20 home runs over 110 games spanning both levels of Class A. His combination of impact and plate skills is evident from his surface level stats, as Basallo struck out in just 19.9% of plate appearances while walking 12.8% of the time. (GP)

No. 9 Billy Cook, OF, Orioles
Team: Double-A Bowie (Eastern)

Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .348/.500/1.000 (8-for-23), 9 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 11 RBIs, 5 BB, 8 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: A 10th round pick out of Pepperdine, Cook has proven to be an under-the-radar gem for the Orioles. Over 116 games with Double-A Bowie, Cook has hit .259/.326/.471 with 24 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Cook is one of two players in all of minor league baseball with 24 or more home runs and 30 or more stolen bases. Last week Cook pushed his home run total to 20 and beyond with four home runs over the first three games of Bowie’s series against New Hampshire. Cook reached base safely in all six games and recorded a run and an RBI in four out of six games. Cook shows average plate skills with above-average impact, his underlying exit velocity data is strong with a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. (GP)

No. 12 Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles
Team: Triple-A Norfolk (International)

Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Povich, picked up from the Twins in the same deal that brought Yennier Cano to Baltimore, is looking like another shrewd pickup. The Nebraska alum has been inconsistent this season, but his 157 strikeouts—including nine more this past week—are tied with Seattle’s Reid VanScoter for the fifth-most in the minor leagues. The total also puts him atop Baltimore’s minor league leaderboard in that category. He’s going to have to iron out his command and control, but he’s clearly shown the ability to miss bats. (JN)

Looking at 2nd half stats at FG, i.e. after the AS break.

Schneider only Jay over 2 WAR.
Kikuchi, Bassitt, Gausman over 1 WAR. Belt on IL only batter over 1 WAR.

5 players with negative WAR. Pearson and Manoah optioned to minors, White DFA'd and outrighted, DeJong DFA'd and released.
That leaves one on the team - Vlad.

FWIW, despite Rangers 2nd half struggles, 4 of their batters are over 2 WAR.

I wonder if the Red Sox end up bringing in Click to replace Bloom.

If the Jays miss the playoffs then I do think they need to evaluate Atkins’ job moving forward. It’s not his fault Vlad went from superstar to replacement level, but his fingerprints are all over this roster/core which has 0 playoff wins since Vlad/Bo came into the league. Given the state of the farm system, I don’t think Atkins is the guy who will turn this into a “sustainable winner”, so if they miss the playoffs this season with a September collapse, then bringing in a fresh face (or promoting Click before the Red Sox get him) should be something they consider.

I think the GMs deserve to be fired for year 8 being the first year they actually fielded a very good on paper roster, while the manager deserves to be fired for that on paper roster not being good enough on the field.

That's the beauty of what the Red Sox ownership did - Chaim Bloom did pretty much what ownership wanted (the dirty work) and when the natives started to get restless, he's the fall guy not ownership.

I am worried about the future of this franchise. Rogers got told by this front office it needed to spend on free agents and it did. It got told to fix the building and it did. The barn is half full, next year prices spike and box sales this year we’re lagging last time we heard. Those thirsting for blood might be disappointed when the owners take a different tack.

I am not that grumpy about the Jay's woes. I think the GM has done a decent job.

They have a strong pitching staff. A few weeks ago people were asking whether this might be the best starting staff in Jay's history. The BP has been good, with depth on the farm. They have fallen apart recently, but overall good marks there.

The problem has been hitting. This was a surprise given most of the same players (save Teo and Gurriel) were quite strong last year. Belt and KK have been decent.

If you could run a simulation of this season a few times with this lineup, it likely turns out better. So decent marks of the GM who put together a good group.

Having said all that, the hitting coach has to go. The results have not been there, which as I say isn't fatal. But the poor approaches are unacceptable.

The farm system is ok. They are noted for being able to find and develop Schneider types. And they have a bunch of grinder types up and down the system who can get on base and avoid K's. Thats good. Pitching has been spotty but they have taken the opposite of the Rays, who rush players until their arms fall off. They are babying them and we will see if that works out. They have traded away most of their other high picks, and the Latin component (save Orelvis) has been iffy.

I think if they run out this same pitching staff next season, improve the hitting approach, and maybe add a Teo, they should be pretty good next year.

"Definitely both despotic and narcissistic to think that the lucky guys who hold 1 of the 30 best jobs in their field in the world should be held to high standards."

Nobody is arguing against the idea that you cannot judge those in positions of power. The problem is personalizing this as if you are a victim to those you deem to have acted imperfectly. It's very Trump 2023, and yes, the entitled language of a despot.

Ah come on it was humour.

We do not accept humour at Da Box unless it is from the home 9's performance.

The Bloom firing is really surprising. I don't think he will be out of job long. He didn't just execute what ownership wanted he's done a really good job. The major league team is probably a bit worse than the Jays but it isn't materially far off. He's fixed a good chunk (not all) of their payroll issues. Oh, and he's completely rebuilt the Sox farm system in 4 years. I'd say the Sox are better positioned for the next 5 years (maybe not next year) than the Jays.

On the other hand, he did trade Babe Betts.

Year 8 is the 3rd straight 90 win season potentially still, with it still being possible to be 3 out of 4 years in the playoffs. This reminds me very much of the late 80s when just making the playoffs wasn't enough anymore. Not sure if we are at the 1990-1991 off-season yet but we are close. Namely at the point where the guys who were here home grown for the start of the window are dumped and new players come in.

Shapiro and company had a way to stop time for Bautista and EE?

Chaim Bloom was especially hated among the fanbase (aka my neighbors and folks I play softball with). In my experience, for whatever reason, the Red Sox run their team based on what is on the local sports talk radio is yammering about.

If the Jays' ownership did the same AA would have been brought back by year 4.

* 1983: 7th MLB
* 1984: 5th
* 1985: 2nd
* 1986: 9th
* 1987: 2nd
* 1988: 8th
* 1989: 6th
* 1990: 7th
* 1991: 5th
* 1992: 2nd
* 1993: 4th

Back then it was considered a down year if we finished outside the top 5. Finishing in the 6-9 range for a couple years in a row meant the entire roster got overhauled.


* 2016: 8th
* 2017: 19th
* 2018: 22nd
* 2019: 26th
* 2020: 11th
* 2021: 9th
* 2022: 8th
* 2023: 9th

Nowadays we have to convince ourselves that just barely squeezing into the bottom of the top 10 and/or the last wild card slot is success.

Yes Bloom did trade Betts, but the Sox won't be paying Bogaerts $26m per year until 2033 (notwithstanding the Sox fans' outrage over failing to do so). Sometimes the things you don't do are just as material as the things that you do.

yeah but Xander was never Mookie imho.

and he decided to pay $32m per year for Devers until 2033 instead.

Devers is 4 plus years younger.

How people re convinced that the al central winner has as good a shot of winning as the braves I don’t know. Maybe when someone says the playoffs are a “crapshoot” they mean the 100 win teams are rolling for 7s and the bubble teams are shooting for something rarer? I don’t really know.

It was an open secret that Mookie Betts wanted out of town and wasn't going pass up the opportunity to leave for a place he felt more comfortable in if the money was comparable... hard to fault him knowing this town.

The Devers signing was to appease the fanbase. It mostly worked given the expanded playoffs.

In return for trading away the last year of Mookie Betts before free agency, the Sox got: rid of Price's remaining contract, Verdugo and Wong (both on dirt cheap salaries). You hope for better, but you could do much much worse than that. If I were a Sox fan today (which thankfully I am not), I wouldn't feel great about today's decision.

Well he'll forever be known as the GM that traded Mookie.


Was just checking some Shapiro numbers:

CLE 15yrs w/Shapiro: 1st ALC twice (1st & 6th yrs), 2nd ALC 3 times
CLE 8yrs since Shapiro: 1st ALC four times, 2nd ALC four times

TOR 6yrs w/AA: 1st ALE once
TOR 8yrs w/Shapiro: 1st ALE zero times, 2nd ALE twice (1st & 7th yrs)

Anthopolous has finished 1st in his division in 7 of his last 7yrs as GM.

Take a look at the AL East standings in 2015 when we finished in 1st and compare them to today (or actually, the past ~3 or so seasons).

2nd place NYY: 87-75
3rd place BAL: 81-81
4th place TBR: 80-82
5th place BOS: 78-84

That 2015 Jays team was legitimately really really good, but let's not pretend like we didn't benefit from an extremely weak AL East that year. The 2nd place Yankees finished just 12 games over .500 in 2015, meanwhile this season the 2nd place Rays are 33 games over .500. In 2015 only two of the AL East teams even finished with a record over .500. Today? ALL FIVE teams are over .500 right now. We are 14 games over and we're in 3rd place, again, that is better than 2nd place NYY in 2015.

If you're going to compare seasons, you need to also compare the level of competition. This division has been much stronger from 2021-2023 than it was for AA's swan-song. In 2021 we finished 20 games over .500 with 91 wins, and our reward was 4th place in the AL East. FOURTH PLACE. That's just two fewer wins than AA's 2015 Jays.

AA is a brilliant GM, and he did a lot for the Blue Jays organization, but he probably needed his LA and Atlanta stints to grow into the top-tier executive he is now.

metafour - that's a completely valid point and I agree with it. To give some credit to AA though, that was part of the reason why it made sense to "empty the bucket" and go for it vis a vis prospect trades. There was a window and the Jays walked through it.

2015

* TOR #5
* NYY #9
* BAL #16
* TBR #18
* BOS #20

above average division.

Uglyone - apples to oranges there - in the 1977-1993 period there were just 26 ML teams vs the 30 now. 2 playoff teams per league vs 6 now. Jays had the top payroll in 92/93 around $50 million, the Yankees 1989-1992 were hopeless (sub 500 each year), Red Sox were fringe (mid 80's to low 90's). This was the era of parity when teams rarely cracked 100 wins or losses (1986: 1 team, 1987: 1 team, 1988: 4 teams, 1989: 1 team, 1990: 1 team, 1991: 1 team, 1992: 0 teams, 1993: 4 teams, 3 in one division). So the first year the Jays won it all no one was a 100 game winner or loser. The second year they mostly were in one division the Jays never had to play against (97 win Phillies beat 104 winning Atlanta who beat 103 winner SF both in same division as 101 loser Padres).

Basically what I'm saying is the goal back then was to win your division and with more parity that was a LOT easier. Jays peak was 99 wins in '85, 92/93 peaked at 96 wins. Last year 99 wins would've put them 5th in the majors, 96 would've put them 6th. Last year they were tied for 7th (not 8th). So the question becomes should the Jays put a ton of effort into being a 100 win team now given that is needed to be #1 in the majors? I don't think so. The goal is to make the playoffs. They have done that 2 of the past 3 years and missed the one time by 1 game. That is the goal. The fact the players flopped in the playoffs is a different question - but remember, the 111 win Dodgers last year lost in the NLDS (their first round) 3-1. So winning 20 more games than the Jays didn't help them (I doubt anyone there was happy with that one win in the playoffs) but the Padres had to be happy with that win (despite their poor 89 wins which is worse than the Jays in 21/22) - those Padres won 2 series vs 100 win teams (NYM and LAD) before losing to the 87 win Phillies.

This is not 1992. This is 2023. Being #1 in payroll guarantees nothing (just ask Mets fans) nor does being #2 (just ask Yankee fans). Being a 100+ win team guarantees nothing (ask Mets or Dodgers fans). Your goal has to be to make the playoffs and see what happens. To win is seen as needing a deep pen and strong starting pitching. What do the Jays have? You got it - deep pen and strong starters. Yes, they crapped the bed in this Texas series but the offense also did. That happens. They just need to finish a game ahead of either Seattle, Texas, or tie Houston to make the playoffs. The odds are still decent at 45.1% via FanGraphs - not as good as a few days ago, but still a LOT better than, say, the Yankees or Mets or Guardians or Angels, or Red Sox, or Cardinals (generally seen as the model for a franchise) or Padres (who spent a fortune in prospects and dollars to try to do it).

Lets enjoy what we have. This sure beats 1994-2014 that is for damn sure.

This team is infuriating, but that's in large part by the way they've strung us along, getting our hopes up only to keep dashing them.

Contrast with AA's WS favourite 2013 Jays that never even reached .500 until that 11 game win streak in late June put them 2 games over. A week later they were at .500 for the last time, and finished 14 games under.

Which is worse?

2015: barely above average - average rank of 13.6 in a 30 team league. Perfectly average would be 15.5. 88 wins was all the Jays NEEDED to win the division as #2 Yankees had 87. Non-Jay teams in the East in 2015 won 81.5 games on average. 83.8 when you mix in the Jays. So compare that to this years 81.4 overall with 2 weeks to go. Average record 81.4-64.2. That is damn hard to compete in. Ranks are 2 (O's) - 3 (Rays) - 9 (Jays) - 17 (Red Sox) - 18 (Yankees). The Jays still play more vs their own division thus at a disadvantage for overall league standings. Just 3-7 games vs teams in other divisions vs 13 in their own division. That means 24 more hard games than teams in the other divisions get. If the Jays were in the Central division a playoff slot would all but be locked up by now with home field advantage in round 1 (4 games ahead of the Twins before factoring in strength of schedule) - they'd be trying to beat all AL West teams to get a bye in round 1 and with the weaker opponents they'd probably have it too.

In 2013 Lucy pulled away the football when Charlie Brown was a good distance away from it. This year instead it is not pulled until the last second. Keeping hope alive but also making the inevitable fall more painful. Of course, that is true for all but 1 team that makes the playoffs each year. The Phillies last year were sooooo close. 2015/16 Jays were also soooo close to it all but that football was pulled away as the foot was pulled back to hit it. Losing in the WS I see as the foot is almost touching the ball when it is yanked away (see 1986 Red Sox for super-painful, or Phillies 1993 where Carter's name is a curse, not a happy thing).

FYI: Chapman back and at 3B tonight batting 6th, Lukes back down after a very brief callup. Merrifield in the lineup yet again for some reason batting 7th ahead of Kirk (so at least Kirk shouldn't hit into double plays as you can't if no one is on base). Springer DH, Biggio in RF batting 5th. Rest of the lineup seems pretty much as expected.

" Merrifield in the lineup yet again for some reason"

Since August 1st, Merrifield is easily 3rd highest on team with 157 PAs. He has had a 46 WRC+ in that period. Biggio has had a 130 WRC+ in the same period and has had 60 fewer PAs. Schneider has a 237 WRC+ and has had 50 fewer PAs than Merrifield. I don't think Merrifield should be cut or anything, this slump is just evening out his earlier hot streak, but he should absolutely not be playing as much as he is. I get Varsho getting PAs because of D or Kirk getting them when struggling because Jansen is injured but Jays have other and better options. (ugh, Vlad leads in PAs since August 1st and has a 98 WRC+ and a -0.2 WAR).

Is the team really that infuriating? That's a serious question. When they've looked good its been because they have been pounding the lesser lights. There have been very few occasions where they have looked good against good teams. Their record against teams over .500 pretty much says everything about this team. Frankly, after the first Boston series in April I don't ever remember thinking "this team looks like a serious contender" (by that I mean one of the 3-4 best teams in baseball).

Nigel i'm honestly not sure why you keep saying that it shouldn't be frustating that a) half the starting lineup completely fell off the map performance wise this year and b) even then the team has hit at a good level in every situation other than with RISP.

Sure its frustrating that some of the offence has significantly underperformed (i'm not debating that) but I think you are only looking at the negatives. I think that the pitching staff has been inordinately healthy and also, from a performance perspective, lucky. The team in general has been healthier than normal. If you need everything to go right to the 90th percentile then you aren't that good to begin with. Just compare the Jays "issues" against TB and Houston and what they have weathered. They literally laugh at the Jays "issues". My only point is that the team, in my view, has looked all year like what it is - a good but not great team. No harm in that. I actually have enjoyed watching this team much more than not. I like good run prevention teams and I thought that this was a 90 win team before they year so I'm not feeling "disappointed".

If the standard for not getting miffed at home 9 is that they are one of the 3-4 best teams in baseball it seems like moving the goalposts.

The 2015 team only looked like a top 3-4 team for two months. Only 92, 93 and maybe 87 would meet the standard of the Jays being a top 3-4 talent.

Whatever the true talent level of the team it's the play that's been infuriating. Many Jays fans are happy to follow middling teams. 2003 or 07 or 08 all come to mind. Good not great teams that had their flaws but weren't infuriating.

I really don't get the "pitching luck" argument on any front.

Not one pitcher is doing anything they haven't before, and recently. A bunch have completely imploded - Manoah, White, Bass, Cimber, Pop - while the top prospect was injured.

Meanwhile the topline numbers slightly
overperforming the underlying numbers is entirely explained by good defense.

christaylor - I think we might be talking about two different things. If you want to talk about frustration because this team should be better than a 90 win team with all of the assets thrown at the current roster (payroll, prospects, etc.) - then sure, I can understand that. I'm not sure that I'm totally there on that one but I can completely understand if that's a fan's view. And, of course, its frustrating to watch good but not great teams in a general fandom sense. But, I just don't think that this team is frustrating from a "the team is actually better than its record" perspective (which was all I was really talking about). Nor do it think its a disappointment from that perspective.

Interested to see what happens tonight and over the next weeks. Jays will have to be better than they have been all season to get a playoff spot. One of the things members of this site have taught me is that hard numbers beyond SSS can be an excellent guide for what to expect. 😟

Sometime Eovaldi is tough initially but then hits a bit of a wall after several innings. We’ll see how things go tonight.

I think the problem is what we had from 86-90 - very high expectations but no results (one playoff appearance during that stretch, and that year they won just 89 games). Then came 'the trade' plus other moves that made 1991 feel different, and more stuff to make it so the WS years were a blast from day 1. From 1984 to 1994 the Jays were pre-season favorites every year pretty much (I had the pre-season guides that all said it, might have some still in storage). If they didn't make the playoffs it felt like a wasted year. Then by 1990 anything less than reaching the series was a failure. We finally got it, then 20 years of failure.

Right now we are experiencing the 'but they were preseason favorites, why aren't they winning' window. Failure to make the playoffs or to go at least to round 2 (aka: a Leafs championship) will result in a few heads rolling - whose is hard to say, but we could see a major shakeup. I could see a lot of rookies in the lineup in 2024 (2B Schneider, 3B O Marintez, LF Barger, DH Horwitz) or the team going all-in and blowing a fortune to get one of the big 2 free agents here (Ohtani or Bellinger) and maybe doing a trade or two involving big names (Manoah & Vlad to someone - that would be a culture shift).

Make the playoffs and do decently (or great) and changes will be more minimal. More effort to resign guys like Chapman, Merrifield, Belt and trying to mix in kids for a spot or two in the lineup.

I honestly think the fact that people are infuriated by a .550 team says a lot more about the times we live in than the team itself. We live in angry times.

Putting Merrifield out there doesn't help - 2 runs score that wouldn't have if we had our A team OF defense out there instead. Grrrr.

Kiermaier and Bichette missed centre-cut fastballs from Eovaldi with multiple runners on that inning. Lost opportunities.

Thats just an insanely poor at bat by Bo. Insanely bad.

The home plate ump tonight isn’t terrible. But he’s not good, either.

Wow. Kirk got a hittable 3-1 FB with a runner on and he missed it, too. What is going on with this team?

What is going on with this team?
They have never seemed particularly resilient, but this year is especially bad. No idea why. Playing defeated.

Some gutsy stuff from the Ace with some terrible umping. Time for the team to follow his lead.

True. But Gausman also got a called strike three on Semien on a pitch that was below the zone.

Welp that shoulda been a walk

And three guys strike out on 91mph "fastballs".

Guerrero Jr. and Springer are motioning as though Bradford's fastball up rises at the end. 

A loss tonight would realistically end the playoff dreams. The Jays would lose the tiebreakers with both Seattle and Texas, so if they are 2.5 games back of Texas after tonight, it’s actually 3.5 games because a tie would go to Texas. It’s not happening this season if the team loses tonight. It probably won’t happen even if they win tonight but a win would at least keep them in the picture. What a collapse this is turning out to be. All they had to do was split a four game series, but instead got swept (or are about to).

and trevor richards to officially kills the season. chef's kiss.

Wow

It’s hard to see the Jays making the 2023 playoffs after this series.

I don't understand why John Schneider has had more confidence in Trevor Richards than in Bowden Francis. Richards has not been right since he came back from the IL.

Gotta 'love' Garcia walking in a run too. But he 'only' allowed 2 of the 3 baserunners to score. Guess that is a successful outing in this series. Sigh.

Basically now the Jays need to go on their hottest streak of the year to turn things around. 6 wins in a row is their best in 2023. 5 series left, 2-1 in each would put them at 10-5 in those final games, a 90-72 record. It is possible as the Red Sox and Yankees are in a fight for last in the AL East while the Rays might be set for the playoffs depending how their series with the O's goes. It isn't impossible. It isn't probable either, but not impossible.

Finally, corporal discipline can be entertained.

Oh for crying out loud - Merrifield being hurt wouldn't bother me from a competitive POV but you don't leave a guy who looked to be hurt in a blowout like this. You pull him. Pure stupidity to leave him in.

That at-bat by Vlad in the 9th (I think - I was just jumping through the game pretty quick), where he missed on 3 (straight?) fastballs in the zone says it all. He was *LATE* on all of them, IIRC, around 96-97.

He has a REALLY long swing, it seems - like those emergency hacks to foul off a couple earlier seemed to *JUST* get there.

Maybe the hitting coach should encourage him to choke up an inch and swing at 80-85% power, instead of pretending he's at the home run derby EVERY at bat?

Post Game comments from self- hugging manager:

Richard Griffin: "John, uh, Trevor Richards has allowed 17 runs in his last 9 1/3 ... how do you continue to bring him into games and in game situations?"

Self-hugging manager: "I think he has 94 strikeouts in about 60 innings this year."

Richards has not been right since he came back from the IL.

Let's see... 11 appearances, 11 IP, 17 Hits, 10 BB, 17 ER - that's a 13.91 ERA. "Not right" might be a bit of an understatement there, Mike!

This season is starting to remind me of 1990 more than anything else. This team isn't the huge, disappointing failure that the 2013 team was (or the 2004 team.) Instead it's a team that spent most of the year in good shape to make the post-season, but insisted on coming up very, very short in the key moments of the season (in 1990 it was a pair of late-season series with the Red Sox.) They were a tease, for five long months. The 2013 and 2004 teams had the courtesy of letting us know right away that they weren't going anywhere. Maybe that's why people seem so much more upset by this group.

Fans are frustrated because they want a team that competes and doesn't make fundamental errors and easy outs between manager and player decisions.

It's all much more frustrating than a team that falls on its face right out of the gate.

For me, that they’ve been in the hunt all year has made the year more enjoyable. I’d rather be a Jays fan than a Cardinals fan in 2023. Having said that, the past 4 games set out fairly definitively team quality. There’s no blaming bad luck, managerial decisions, etc. That’s the great thing about baseball’s long season. It ultimately makes your team quality pretty clear.

I agree this feels a LOT like 1990 did - the end of an era, as the kids we saw come up are flopping with the pressure of being expected to win year in - year out. On the team in 1990 but not 1991: 1B Fred McGriff (HOF), SS Tony Fernandez (All-Star), LF George Bell (MVP), CF Mookie Wilson (temporary but very popular), RF Junior Felix (amazing start to career but was much older than advertised). The previous season they cleared out Jesse Barfield and Lloyd Moseby (key parts of the earlier teams). Manny Lee moved from 2B to SS.

Equivalent now would be doing a big mega trade of Bo & Vlad to someone (I previously mentioned SD as possible with a Kim & Soto for Vlad & Bo but the trade simulator thinks Bo is far too valuable for that, but switch to Manoah and it thinks the Padres might go for it, but the Jays would be winners of the deal. Heck, I'd do it in a second if I was the Jays and the Padres went for it. Put Kim at 3B, Schneider at 2B and Soto in LF, Varsho in CF, and see how it works out. Figure out the contracts for Soto & Bo afterwards. Toss in a few relievers if they'd like too.

I suspect this winter will be the biggest winter challenge for a Jays GM since that 90/91 season and the busiest since 2012/13's (stack of players for Buehrle, Johnson, Reyes; Syndergaard for Dickey - yeah both had a stack of others but those are the keys; also Melky Cabrera as a free agent, Gomes for Rogers (ugh)).

Possibly the funniest thing I've seen recently is a poster get called "narcissistic", "Trump 2023", and "despotic"(!) for having the temerity to call for the firing of an underperforming Major League Baseball field manager.  It's absolutely wild how offended people get on the internet. Maybe being a sports fan isn't for you, and you should log off and go take a walk.
You weirdos are this close to comparing uglyone to Adolf Hitler lol

Fire up the stove granny, our boy Vladdy will be home soon.

The offseason is going to be fun!

Imagine sitting at the bar talking to a stranger and when that stranger says he thinks that John Schneider should be fired you say "Wow, I can't believe I've been talking to Pol Pot this whole time", and then you leave in a huff. The internet is a strange place.

I only watched a few minutes to see Gausman walk Seager on a strike to the inside corner and Schneider get a called strike on a pitch 6 inches outside.

Umpires are terrible at calling the outside corner because they set inside and can't really see where the ball is.
By the same token, they should be perfect on the inside corner, especially on a straight fastball.
That looked like an intentional bad call.

The only thing despotic is letting umpires call the balls and strikes when everybody else knows exactly where every pitch is. And this with all the gambling going on. Does not compute.

This isn't the end, but he end could come quickly after this.
They probably need 90 wins, so 10-5 over the last 5 series.

Boston has fired Bloom for a likely last place finish.
Schneider should be gone. He was there to get the most out of Guerrero but could only achieve this by pitching to him.
They need a new hitting coach. Badly.
This one seems to focus too much on bat path rather than swing decisions.

I like the comp but I wonder if 2023 front offices are too different from a 1990 to make a challenge trade. The 2013 roster overhaul that didn't work came from Marlin's sell-off. SD seems like a good match with the Jays for a roster shakeup but I can see the FO running out their team next year with patches to the roster's supporting cast to cover obvious holes. Their Pythagorean record is the same as the Jays actual record.

The big issues with the Jays 2023-24 off-season are a bad position player FA class and the trade chips (outside of Bo) aren't going to fetch much of value given their 2023 season.

A conservative play would be to sign a lower tier vet SP and hope Tiedmann or Manoah can step up. Play Schneider and Horowitz. A platoon at 3B and hope the Jays overperform or are good enough in June to snag a Soto and a top-tier SP rental. That lineup can likely win enough to beat the lower division teams.

If they underperform across the board with Bo and/or Vlad having career years one could be traded (and the other signed long term) for quality talent that would help 2026 be one that could win the AL East.

I don't know if I like this plan (it's basically punting next year with the hope of recovering the kick) but it seems justified, doable, and works with firing the manager and hitting coaches. Also, the renovations alone will bring fans to the ballpark in 2024.

This was the first time in franchise history that the Jays were swept in a 4 game series at home in September.

The main work that attracts new fans (open space with bars) is already finished. I'm not sure that cupholders and seats facing home plate at higher prices are going to bring people out.

It's not cup holders and new seats that they are doing this summer. They are doing an entire renovation with three new exclusive member only areas. All seats have been sold out...

Really don't know what the team should do. Too good to tear down, not good enough to push in all the pieces. There are plenty of culprits but Vladdy turning from Miggy Cabrera into Josh Bell is by far the biggest. It's just so baffling how someone who looked so completely dominant at 22 now looks like a replacement level player at 24.

Those seats are always sold out. It's the last 3-4 sections on each side of the outfield that will be empty.

Just as troubling is that the roster isn't a "stars and scrubs" roster where finding 2-3 "average" players to replace scrubs could move the needle. The roster is devoid of elite talent and there isn't any coming on the near term horizon from the minors. It's a pickle.

This is interesting. Davis Schneider is Isaac Paredes.

And a partial explanation of why some Statcast darlings under perform, though some much more than others. Starring 2 Jays and one ex-Jay.

Oh yeah, the link.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/

Anthopoulos has been trading for bona fide stars, like Olson (6 WAR) and Murphy (4.4 WAR). Can we do that too?

Atkins did trade for Chapman. Which team is going to do a sell off this offseason?

Thanks for the link hypobole - that's very interesting. I think some of these recent articles about pull side, fly ball performance emphasize something I've been thinking about all season (not just as it relates to the Jays). It's all well and good to think about hard hit rates and line drive % to all fields if you're Tony Fernandez or Bo Bichette but Cito Gaston's "grip it and rip it", with pull side loft, may really be the solution for a certain class of hitter (Jose Bautista as Exhibit A). Or, maybe more precisely, is there too much uniformity of hitting philosophy (not mechanics, philosophy) being preached by organizations (and the Jays major league hitting coaches)?

With that pull-side article, a couple of Jays immediately come to mind - besides Bautista. I would love to see them analyze Jansen as well - I'm sure he's "harvesting". And, I'm probably wrong due to faulty memory, but it feels like Matt Stairs during his tenure here was also that type - extreme pull, hit a few HRs that just barely made it, etc..

I wonder how Vladdy would do if the coach told him to choke up an inch, shorten the swing just a bit, and try to pull everything at 80% power? 80% power is enough to hit a ton of HRs, I'm sure - just not to CF.

really? it's shakespeare! never thought that would be deemed too vulgar and gross for a sports webiste.

Anyways, I sincerely apologize, and will stick to my old boring stats takes that never ever offend anyone.

Not to prolong the discussion but it is a moment worthy of awareness.

I'm not among those offended by the comment but I understand the offense.
It's true that it's a Shakespeare snip of dialogue but it is a phrase uttered in what is arguably anti-Semitic play by a that is certainly one based on anti-Semitic sentiment.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/why-scholars-still-debate-whether-or-not-shakespeares-merchant-venice-anti-semitic-180958867/

It is probably an idiom that ought to be retired.

re: pound of flesh.
I am not really offended by the statement but see why others may be. Also, I find it regrettable that uglyone says he will keep to stats from now on. I normally enjoy a uglyone's bombast (and I agree with what he says on the site more than most.) I was commenting that this choice of words is symptomatic of larger trends I was noticing in the language that fans use these days.

The Cardinals -- but who'd you want? Arenado and Contreras? Pawn Vlad off on the Angels for O'Hoppe,

The Cardinals -- but who'd you want? Arenado and Contreras?

Vlad off to the Angels for O'Hoppe, Schabuel, and paying Trout? Then trade one of Jano/Kirk for something?

...or... just pay what it takes for Ohtani to retire a Jay. That'd be something.

"Anthopoulos has been trading for bona fide stars, like Olson (6 WAR) and Murphy (4.4 WAR). Can we do that too?"

I don't think the key is trading for stars, I think the key is trading with Oakland who also seem to be looking to get as many AAA players as they can from any deal. If any team would be interested in the Jays' AAA bunch, it's them. Unfortunately, just not much left to strip off that team.