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Did we really want the Minnesota Twins to provide the opposition?


Not really - we're just sick to death of the bloody Tampa Bay Rays. It's October, everybody still standing is fully capable of Going All the Way. The 2023 Twins scored more runs than the Blue Jays, and gave up fewer - in fact, no AL team gave up fewer runs than the Twins (dead heat with the Mariners.)

We can be fairly confident that Max Kepler will be in right field and Michael A. Taylor will be in centre. (The Twins didn't allow Byron Buxton to play a single inning in the field this season and he still missed 77 games.) The Twins have some other injury concerns as well. One assumes that shortstop Carlos Correa will be reporting for duty, despite being troubled by plantar fasciitis - we don't know if that's why he hit a very un-Correa like .230/.312/.399 this season, but it's probably why he hit into double plays more often than any other hitter in the American League - yes, even more frequently than Alejandro Kirk. But third baseman Royce Lewis may be limited to playing as the DH. If Lewis can't play third, it will probably be Jorge Polanco who fills in. Unless it's Kyle Farmer. Or Willi Castro. Rocco has some options. And this in turn could leave Buxton serving as a pinch-hitter or off the roster entirely.

They have one catcher who can hit (Ryan Jeffers) and another who's very strong defensively (Christian Vazquez.) Vazquez has started a little more often, but Lopez has been notably better working with Jeffers.  Against RH pitchers Alex Kiriloff usually starts at first base and Matt Wallner in LF -  Kiriloff and Wallner are strictly platoon bats, and they can count on seeing Mayza or Cabrera in any key game situation.

It's a deep lineup, and one with no real star power, what with Correa having a very ordinary year.  Kepler led the team with 24 HR and 66 RBI. But I point it out again - this team can score runs. They draw walks (second in the league) and they hit home runs (tied with Texas for the league lead.) Which will get it done. They strike out quite a bit, too - more than any team in the majors, in fact.

It will be Pablo Lopez on the mound for the first game - you remember him, it's that guy I was urging the Jays to trade for a year ago. Give them Alejandro Kirk, I said. They never listen to me, of course, and it was the Twins who stepped up. They gave the Marlins Luis Arraez in exchange for Lopez, which got it done. Sonny Gray will get the second game, and I'm not sure what Rocco does after that. It would normally be Joe Ryan, but he scuffled quite a bit in the second half.

I don't think Minnesota's staff is as deep as Toronto's, but I also think depth is that thing that gets you through the six months of the season and front-line talent is more likely to be what gets you through the playoffs. Their top starters and the front end of the bullpen can shut down anyone.

Anyway, welcome to October.

Here we go.
Wild Card Series, Game 1 | 210 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#438214) #
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#438216) #
I'm not a pessimistic person, but I am realistic. The Jays have been frustrating all season and they struggle mightily against good pitching. Unless they can outpitch the Twins, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they get swept 2-0.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#438217) #
Thanks gor the excellent summary, Magpie. It sounds as though the Twins may have a vulnerability on the left side of the infield due to health issues.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#438218) #
*for
Gerry - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#438219) #
I am optimistic, I bought tickets for game four of the division series.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#438220) #
I can't speak to the quality of their data, but EVAnalytics.com rates game 1 HP ump Andy Fletcher as "neutral," game 2 HP ump Adam Hamari as "pitchers," and game 3 HP ump Mike Muchlinksi as "pitchers."

With no "hitters" or "extreme hitters" HP umpires, this could contribute to a relatively low-scoring series.
Katie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#438222) #
Reportedly, Francis, Jackson, Clement and Lukes all have lockers in the Jays clubhouse as injury replacements and, presumably, roster options if the Jays advance.

Franky, I'm not convinced I wouldn't rather have Clement over Espinal, but this front office wouldn't disrupt Espinal's presence on the club and I'm also not convinced there's enough of a difference to make that the wrong choice.
scottt - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#438223) #
3M fans and back to the playoffs.
It's mission accomplished for the front office.

The players feels like they have the guys to make a deep run.
They don't feel like the front office cheapened out and left them with glaring holes.

Now, it comes down to execution.

bpoz - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#438224) #
The balanced schedule has an effect on how often you play your own division teams. This probably means that Minnesota had more games against AL Central teams than the Jays. 4 teams had losing records in the AL Central. Detroit at 78 -84 was the best of those 4.

Berrios moved to the AL East and it only badly affected him last year. P Lopez also handled the move from the NL East to the AL Central well. I say both are good pitchers except one moved to a strong division and the other to a weak division.
scottt - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#438225) #
Tickets for the wild card games are still available starting at $5.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#438227) #
I have done my part. I have removed everything by the Replacemements, the Hold Steady (and Craig Finn solo), and Prince from my phone.

Being a fan can involve sacrifice.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#438228) #
I'm expecting a repeat of 2020 & 2022, so hopefully I will be pleasantly surprised - I haven't watched a full game this season so I'm out of the loop except for this site - don't know much about the twins except that the Correa contract doesn't look good - looks like the Giants/Mets made the right call to back out.
Jonny German - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#438229) #
3M fans and back to the playoffs

Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing?? Who are you cheering for?
Jonny German - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#438230) #
looks like the Giants/Mets made the right call to back out

Unlike the Giants and Mets, Correa is in the playoffs.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#438231) #
The Jays are probably better off playing on the road given their play at home. Usually Jays fans travel from nearby provinces to see the team in Minnesota but with school back & a midweek game probably not.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#438233) #
That's a very silly analogy -If you think paying 33.3M for 1.4
WAR production is good, then great but I'd wager the Twins would love to get out of that contract. The Mets missed the playoffs, so that does mean that the Kodai Senga signing was bad?
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#438234) #
I have done my part. I have removed everything by the Replacemements, the Hold Steady (and Craig Finn solo), and Prince from my phone.
Being a fan can involve sacrifice.

Wondering how far this goes.  J.S. Ondara was born in Nairobi and moved to Minneapolis at age 20 to develop his interest in music- apparently a dispute over whether Knockin' on Heaven's Door was originally a Guns N Roses or Bob Dylan song was a key motivator.   Anyways, he's very good.

And they are called the Minnesota Twins, not the Minneapolis Twins.  Perhaps that's asking for too much sacrifice.  For myself, I'm perfectly OK with fasting for 1 day, but no bread for a 8 is too much.  Music from Minnesota may be like bread for some people. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#438235) #
Chris Cornell seemed to anticipate the Twins' future postseason woes in Outshined: "Well, I just looked in the mirror, and things aren't looking so good / I'm looking California and feeling Minnesota."
Cracka - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#438236) #
Reportedly, Francis, Jackson, Clement and Lukes all have lockers in the Jays clubhouse as injury replacements

I think Horwitz has a locker too - but the real story is that Jay Jackson remains with the team, despite being in DFA limbo. If he clears waivers, can be re-added to the 40-man roster (dropping Wes Parsons) and would still be eligible for the playoffs (because he was on the 40-man roster on August 31st). He's a pending free agent, so he's of no benefit to any other team, but in theory, some team could claim him and prevent him from "re-joining" the Jays in playoffs... which would be awkward, given that he's in Minnesota with the team.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#438237) #
"I have done my part."

For me the biggest sacrifice here is Bob Dylan. Are you willing to go the max Magpie. I'm happy for you to think about it over one more cup of coffee if needed.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#438239) #
Career Postseason Stats:

* Jansen 13pa, 255wrc+
* Espinal 4pa, 253wrc+
* Kirk 12pa, 152wrc+
* Springer 300pa, 139wrc+
* Chapman 18pa, 123wrc+
* Belt 151pa, 89wrc+
* Kiermaier 95pa, 86wrc+
* Merrifield 6pa, 73wrc+
* Bichette 14pa, 28wrc+
* Guerrero 17pa, -12wrc+
* Biggio 8pa, -15wrc+

* Varsho ---
* Schneider ---
* Heineman ---
* Eden ---


* Berrios 3gms 4.0ip/gm 84era-
* Bassitt 3gms 5.0ip/gm 104era-
* Ryu 9gms 4.6ip/gm 116era-
* Gausman 7gms 3.1ip/gm 115era-
* Manoah 1gms 5.2ip/gm 166era-
* Kikuchi ---

* Swanson 1gms 1.0ip/gm, 0era-
* Richards 1gms 1.0ip/gm, 0era-
* Hicks 2gms 0.7ip/gm, 0era-
* Green 18gms 1.4ip/gm, 93era-
* Mayza 2gms 0.8ip/gm, 141era-
* Garcia 17gms 0.8ip/gm, 146era-
* Cabrera 4gms 0.7ip/gm, 157era-
* Romano 1gms 1.2ip/gm, 282era-

* Jackson ---
* Francis ---



Yeesh yeah they're tiny useless samples but it's actually kind of crazy how bad our best players have been in the playoffs.

That's gonna have to change quick.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#438240) #
Thanks Magpie. The more we win the more I will be grateful to you.
christaylor - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#438241) #
Hat tip for an excellent joke.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#438242) #
A team could claim jackson sure but then they'd have to drop one of their own guys and we could claim hik as payback.
rafael - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#438243) #
That the entire team didn't vehemently reject the idea of champagne on entering playoffs. this year .. doesn't bode well.
And for other fortune-cookie-like comments may Harold Ramirez continue successfully betting on self.
mathesond - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#438244) #
Were there any entire teams that vehemently rejected the idea of champagne? Or are they all doomed?
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#438245) #
I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Jays enjoy the accomplishment of making the playoffs. Maybe because I found them entertaining all season.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#438246) #
I heard that some players were adamant about prosecco rather than champagne.  Although it wasn't what you might think.  The debate was about which bubbly beverage was suitable for spraying (safely, of course)  rather than drinking. 
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#438247) #
Jansen moved to the 10 day IR. So i guess there's hope that he can return at some point.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#438248) #
I've been thinking more about Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays.  The current saying "history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes" has me thinking about this.  More after the World Series is done. 
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#438249) #
"Were there any entire teams that vehemently rejected the idea of champagne? Or are they all doomed?"

Hockey fans of Sidney Crosby and other NHL players who don't hoist the Presidents cup as a good luck move, but they still celebrate after final game of the season.
rafael - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#438250) #
see, i warned everyone;
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pangaea-ultima-the-next-supercontinent-may-doom-mammals-to-far-future-extinction/
I think that they generally underperformed given the budget and selling of some future but have a partly lucky shot at redemption and the timing of backing in on other teams loss doesn't seem right to celebrate so close to having to focus on performing. I don't expect to convince anyone but curious how much of an outlier I am in sentiment.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#438251) #
The good news is that the Jays scored more runs on the road than the Twins at home.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#438252) #
The playoff/wild card roster is out. As expected Ryu and Parsons are not on it. Eden and Schneider are in.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#438253) #
Gausman’s walks have been a bit high recently (11 in his last three starts). Hopefully the extra rest before today’s start helps him curb that trend.
Glevin - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#438254) #
Thankfully, only 12 pitchers. Would probably have gone Francis over Richards myself but small quibble.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#438255) #
For me the biggest sacrifice here is Bob Dylan.

For sure. (Although the remastered and remixed Tim has caused me to lose what's left of my mind.) Luckily Dylan, like Prince, doesn't have anything fairly current at the moment. Not for the same reason...
hypobole - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#438257) #
18 teams did not make the playoffs and all won fewer games than the Jays. 3 playoff teams won fewer games than the Jays.

The schedule was more balanced, but the Jays still played 52 games vs the toughest division in baseball.

Damn right the Jays deserved to celebrate.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#438258) #
I think Richards makes the roster because he is one of the few guys who carried this team along the way with Biggio, Schneider, Whit, Kikuchi and Jansen.
Cracka - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#438259) #
Yesterday I predicted that they'd go with 13 pitchers - I'm glad that I was wrong. I did some digging on the previous wild card rosters for best-of-three series - there have been 12 of them since COVID (8 in 2020, 4 in 2022) and of the 24 teams involved, only one team needed to use 13 pitchers (Padres 2020) and only two teams have even used 12 pitchers. Last year, no one used more than 10 pitchers... So it appears that this is a safe decision unless something crazy happens. Just took a glance at other rosters - the Brewers and Rays are going with just 11 pitchers, but the Rangers are going with 13. Ramiel Tapia made it, but Rowdy Tellez didn't.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#438260) #
the twins have activated and rostered Lewis, even though he's probably far from 100%. might have to DH.

Buxton deservedly gets left off the playoffs roster.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#438261) #
Honestly i would just like to see them play some good exciting playoffs baseball.

If they lose to a good team that's fine. Just don't roll over and play dead again.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#438262) #
Richards is on the roster for his swing-and-miss stuff, which was still there while he was getting his ears pinned back all September. Schneider often speaks very fondly about his K potential.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#438264) #
I want them to win - I don't care if it's the most boring, unexciting game in the history of baseball.
hypobole - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#438265) #
Who had the toughest schedule? The 1st 3 sites that came up on google rated the Jays as having one of the toughest schedules in baseball. 2 had the Jays with the toughest of any playoff team, with ESPN ranking the Marlins as playing a bit tougher schedule. All 3 sites had the Twins with the easiest SOS this year.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#438266) #
There's no such thing as boring in the playoffs unless you lose badly. If they win, they'll have played well and it'll have been exciting.


greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#438267) #
An interesting question is whether, in a close game against the Twins with a runner on first, the Jays will deploy the running game via SB attempt or hit-and-run? Or are they going to play station-to-station baseball? There are risks either way. Does anyone have information on Lopez's and Jeffers's ability to limit the running game? It sounds as though Jeffers has made improvements on this front in 2023.
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#438268) #
I like the idea that the Jays get to start a brand new season this afternoon. It does feel like the team somehow did not reach its full potential reg season 2023 that just ended -- and now -- let's see if they find the switch. Could be kinda fun if they do.

The only thing I knew how to do
Was to keep on keeping on, like a bird that flew
Tangled up in blue

Time to fly blue birds.



Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#438269) #
Richards did generate a lot of swing and miss prior to his injury, but hasn't since. And when his changeup is floating instead of tumbling, he is very vulnerable to the longball. He's a veteran so he gets more chances, but I am hopeful that the starters will make it academic.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#438270) #
Thank you to everyone for your views on difficulty of schedule. The NYM was considered a tough team with Verlander and Scherzer in the rotation. The Mets fooled everyone. "You never know"!!

The AL should get even tougher in the next few years because Baltimore is in their window. Jackson Holliday and a low payroll commitment should make them stronger. NYY probably returns to 90+ wins. Boston eventually too.

So a strong AL East team will miss the playoffs in the next few years. A not so strong AL Central team will get in quite often.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#438271) #
Richards' K% in September was 25%, his W% was 17% and he gave up way too many home runs. The same thing happened in September 2022 incidentally.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#438272) #
Don't forget the Rays. They're always there despite injuries, suspensions, the trading away of expensive players, etc. They're like the Energizer Bunny of baseball.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#438273) #
Jeffers appears to be a decent defender from a statistical perspective. His line against RHP this year though is goosed by a .380+ BABIP unsupported by batted ball metrics. He"s a career .220/.280/.400 hotter against RHP, with a .290 BABIP, and that's a fair estimate of what he is likely to do.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#438274) #
xFIP last four starts:

Lopez: 1.13, 1.05, 3.35, 1.56

Gausman: 2.78, 7.45, 2.53, 3.87
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#438276) #
Pablo Lopez's actual results:

NYM 8.0IP 2H/BB 0R
CHW 5.0IP 8H/BB 5R
LAA 6.0IP 6H/BB 3R
OAK 4.1IP 6H/BB 3R
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#438277) #
To avoid any confusion about "BB" stats contained in the above post, here are Lopez's strikeout-to-walk ratios in those four starts:

0:14
0:8
1:7
1:6

Total: 23.1 IP, 2 walks, 35 strikeouts
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#438278) #
IMO every AL series, and every AL series to come, is close enough to a toss up to not really matter.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#438279) #
Welp - those Lopez stats are, um, intimidating. I guess you can question the quality of the competition. That's all I've got though.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#438280) #
Lopez' xERA for the season is under 3. He has been very good, even taking into account the weaker opponents.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#438281) #
Coby Mayo is another name to know in Baltimore along with Holliday in 2024 and beyond.
Mayo's season can be compared with Orelvis' as they're both 21 and split 2023 between AA/AAA. The O's prospect is a little bit better overall hitter but the power is very similar and Orelvis probably has a little more defensive value. Mayo had 15 more games played but 45 2Bs, 29 HRs, 94 BBs to 25 2Bs, 28HRs, 67 BBs.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#438282) #
don't know that he's on any special kind of heater.

Lopez

* Season: 87era- 79fip-
* Last 5: 87era- 64fip-
* Last 3: 153era- 82fip-

Gausman

* Season: 75era- 68fip-
* Last 5: 57era- 85fip-
* Last 3: 48era- 99fip-
Gerry - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#438283) #
Jay Jackson has cleared waivers. He is with the Jays in Minny in case an injury happens.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#438284) #
Jays hitters have a .268/.328/.589 line off Lopez in 56AB. Belt, Bichette, Biggio, and Kiermaier have taken him deep.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#438285) #
In looking through the game logs, the majority of Lopez's dominant games came against weaker competition with the exception of Baltimore and Rays (one each). Toronto tagged him for 4 runs in late May, which could be best-case scenario.

Gotta shake the first-inning curse, knock his confidence and quiet the crowd.

Looking for Springer and Kirk to keep hitting to right field if the opportunity presents itself.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#438286) #
Pity we can't have a Braves-Dodgers WS.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#438287) #
It seems that Lopez found some additional velo in 2023, which has helped him elevate his game.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#438288) #
Lineups:

* 1. RF Springer
* 2. DH Belt
* 3. 1B Guerrero
* 4. SS Bichette
* 5. 2B Biggio
* 6. C Kirk
* 7. CF Kiermaier
* 8. 3B Chapman
* 9. LF Varsho


* 1. 2B Julien
* 2. 3B Polanco
* 3. DH Lewis
* 4. RF Kepler
* 5. 1B Kiriloff
* 6. SS Correa
* 7. C Jeffers
* 8. LF Wellner
* 9. CF Taylor
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#438289) #
Lineups with wRC+ (vRHP in brackets)

* 1. RF Springer 104 (105)
* 2. DH Belt 138 (146)
* 3. 1B Guerrero 118 (117)
* 4. SS Bichette 125 (120)
* 5. 2B Biggio 103 (102)
* 6. C Kirk 96 (91)
* 7. CF Kiermaier 104 (106)
* 8. 3B Chapman 110 (101)
* 9. LF Varsho 86 (82)


* 1. 2B Julien 136 (151)
* 2. 3B Polanco 118 (115)
* 3. DH Lewis 155 (164)
* 4. RF Kepler 124 (128)
* 5. 1B Kiriloff 120 (138)
* 6. SS Correa 96 (91)
* 7. C Jeffers 138 (131)
* 8. LF Wallner 144 (169)
* 9. CF Taylor 95 (75)
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#438290) #
ZIPS Jays Odds by Game

* Gm1 56.9%
* Gm2 49.7%
* Gm3 54.6%
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#438291) #
Average MLB game time 2h40m - an impressive drop of 24 minutes
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#438292) #
Springer and Bichette have both hit very well at Target Field. Chapman and Kiermaier have been good as well. Kirk and Guerrero have both scuffled, and the career National Leaguers, Belt and Varsho, have hardly ever played there.

Unfortunately Jose Bautista (.324/.410/.794 with 14 HRs in 25 games at Target Field) remains retired.
Jonny German - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#438293) #
Jays in 3.
MVP: Brandon Belt
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#438294) #
Modest short-term goal for the Jays in game 1: score at least one run in the first five innings.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#438295) #
That is far more than a modest goal based upon data from the regular season!
soupman - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#438296) #
it wasn't always easy to look at, but they made it. mlb didn't have any jays in their top 20 players in the post season. it's better that they're being underestimated, i think. far too many people are looking for reasons to be upset. the only thing i plan to be upset about is lowered productivity due to watching so much fall ball. let's go.
hypobole - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#438297) #
Watching Tampa-Texas. Here's something I've never seen mentioned. The 1-4 hitters for Tampa were all acquired by trade. They combined for 88 HR, 327 RBI's, and 15.1 bWAR.

Of the players the Rays sent out in those 4 trades, none were even replacement level this year.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#438298) #
can't throw strikes, then throws a meatball.

this feels too familiar.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#438299) #
Sigh -- So much for a quick start...at least for the Jays.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#438300) #
when's the last time a jays "ace" wasn't horrendously terrible in the playoffs.
mathesond - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#438301) #
Halladay never stunk up the joint in the playoffs for the Jays.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#438302) #
Alright Chapman make the bottom of the order dangerous.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#438303) #
Not seeing too many bad calls yet. The blown ball to Kiermaier just now was at least borderline.
Some brutal swing decisions by Bichette & Kirk though.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#438304) #
heh. true enough mathesond.
James W - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#438306) #
Pitching wasn't a problem in the 2016 playoffs.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#438307) #
ARod suggesting Gausman might be tipping the splitter (not sure what broadcast everyone has) -- Interesting, and potentially devastating if true.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#438308) #
truth is gausman is not even close on location so far. missing badly everywhere.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#438309) #
Rocco Baldelli evidently doesn't mind playing rookies in the playoffs.  They look pretty good so far. 
Eephus - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#438310) #
The radio broadcast is pondering the same thing, regarding the Twins picking up something on Gausman and taking some tough pitches.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#438311) #
And then he serves a juicy meatball to Taylor, the one easy out on the team. For frick's sake.
blu-j - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#438312) #
Well, he's already over 40 pitches through 1.1 innings, so he's not on pace to be around all that deep into the game!
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#438313) #
And the ump bails him out in a huge huge way. can he capitalize on it?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#438314) #
by my eye the ump has missed two gausman pitches so far, both balls incorrectly called strikes. and i'm not sure they were even all that close.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#438315) #
I thought Polanco had hit that a bit harder, and it was going to be 5-0. That would probably be all she wrote..

We're only down 2-0, and we have their best pitcher at 36 or 38 pitches after 2 innings, I think. If we can keep pushing the pitch count, we have a chance, I would think..
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#438316) #
Unfortunate that we have found the wild Gausman today.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#438317) #
Well, we know who the Twins Mountcastle is...
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#438318) #
Absolute meltdown by one of the best pitchers in baseball. It happens to us again. Unbelievable.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#438319) #
Despite Shulman's assertion, there is nothing about Gausman's splitter today that's going to generate chases.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#438320) #
That feels like ballgame to me. Hard to see this offence coming up with 4 runs. Deciding which parts of the pen to use today will be interesting management.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#438321) #
You can't keep Gausman out there when the Twins know everything that's coming. Bullpen is going to be toast one game in... well, except the high leverage guys. Not gonna need them.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#438322) #
The decision to choose Richards over Francis may come into play.  He's not someone I want going 2 innings in a playoff game. 
Glevin - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#438323) #
"Well, we know who the Twins Mountcastle is..."

Except Royce Lewis is just good. 155 WRC+ this year. Wish the Jays had a hitter who seemed even moderately dangerous at the plate.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#438324) #
I have faith in this offense to come back. I would look to Bichette, Belt and bottom of the order. I wouldn't look to Vlad.

I think we can say that through 2 innings the Jays are "Felling Minnesota" and they have "Far2Go" if they plan to win game 1.
Hodgie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#438325) #
I posted in the wrong thread 2 innings ago. Now it is the first 3 innings that feel like a microcosm of the team's season. Jays' hitters get middle-cut fastballs and too often watch them go by, foul them off, or pound the ball into the ground while their counterparts' opportunities are rockets all over the diamond.
Jdog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#438326) #
Being down I don’t see any reason to let Chapman bat , put Schneider in. He offers more offensive potential and it’s obvious.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#438327) #
I'm actually encouraged by that AB by the player formerly known as "Vladito"


I'm calling Jays win here with Biggio, Varsho and Bichette big contributors.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#438328) #
hey we got a hit! kinda.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#438329) #
In the Jays defense, Gausman's pairing his middle middle fastballs with splitters at the ankles which makes the swing decisions a bit easier.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#438330) #
come on KK do this thing. right now.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#438331) #
I mean i appreciate the aggressiveness. chances of us driving him in from 3rd were slim.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#438332) #
This is a great game so far. Super enjoyable. I'm not even kidding. I love that aggressiveness from Bo given the circumstances. Gutsy play that didn't work out. Correa came up big. Keep putting pressure on Minny and you will bust through.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#438333) #
If Bichette doesn't hesitate, I think he makes it. Instead, another TOOTBLAN.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#438334) #
ok Kevin now's the time for a quick clean inning.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#438335) #
There you go Polite Nate - he finally threw a splitter that tempted the batter to swing.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#438336) #
That was an, ahem, extremely generous strike to Wallner.  I liked his reaction- just a skeptical look.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#438337) #
And he got a nice terrible call from the ump to help encourage a few more swings after that. I'll take it.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#438338) #
This commentary is unbearable. What the heck happened to Dan Shulman? The man can't stop talking for even 10 seconds. And enough with the analytics on EVERYTHING. "That's the Xth Splitter Gausman has thrown and they've only swung at X which is X% down from regular season."

I do not enjoy the commentary why there is more talk about off the field that on the field. "Gausman's first playoff game..." "Michael A Taylor's won a World Series with the Washington Nationals." If you're not gonna commentate the game then just scale back what you are commentating. Am I being too picky?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#438339) #
he did it! with a little help, but hey, he did it!

now comes the real question - do you let him throw one more with the top of the order soon up?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#438340) #
that's what the 5th defensive miscue by the twins so far?

Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#438341) #
I think that you have to let Gausman go another inning. Save the pen as best you can, today's a long shot.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#438342) #
Yuck on using Swanson now.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#438343) #
I actually love this aggressiveness from the manager and pitching coach. Why risk going bigger than a 3 run deficit. Lopez is almost at 80 pitches and has maybe 1 more inning in him. Jays are losing to Royce Lewis right now.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#438344) #
i gotta go with the manager here. there's no saving the bullpen in a 3gm series. I didn't want gausman facing the top of the order again. 5 innings means you can stick with just the good relievers most likely and all should be good to go tommorrow.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#438345) #
Not sure how I feel about this bullpen usage. Swanson seemed like a weird pick because of splitter following Gausman.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#438346) #
The one plus is that they are on the road, so if they do lose, the bullpen will only have to cover 4 innings.  Not ideal, but not the end of the world. 
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#438347) #
But pulling him not even 1 inning for Mayza just...
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#438348) #
I like the optimism guys (I say that seriously).
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#438349) #
Unfortunately, I think we are going to spin through the entire high leverage part of the pen over the next couple of innings:(
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#438350) #
all i ask from the offense is that they at least get Lopez up around 100 pitches by the end of this inning.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#438351) #
nah he'll save the other high lev guys for the next time thru the top of the order.
christaylor - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#438352) #
Isn't it still approximately since July 8th that the Jays came back from a 3-run deficit? Or did I miss a game while tuning out for a bit in September?

I say this to note now would be a wonderful time to correct that depressing stat. It's been a good game thus far, probably because I was willing to turn the page on the team with the playoffs.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#438353) #
whatever you do don't look at Vladdy's career playoffs stats.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#438354) #
So many blown calls from Jays... not doing snatching offensively
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#438355) #
the ump is doing his best to let us win.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#438356) #
*for* jays not from...
James W - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#438357) #
September 23, down 5-0 to Tampa after 3. Took a 6-5 lead to the 9th. Don't remember anything else.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#438358) #
ok kiermaier do the thing THIS time.
Chuck - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#438359) #
Don’t umpires need to qualify for the playoffs? Or do they just invite anyone who’ll answer the phone?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#438360) #
praise my dear lord sweet baby jesus christ the messiah
James W - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#438361) #
Sorry - after 4.

How the heck did Fletcher miss that strike against Kirk? Rare to say, but the umpiring has been in Toronto's favour today.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#438362) #
ok. we should have the edge in a bullpen battle. would be very nice if chapman could claw back some of this 2 run deficit right away tho.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#438363) #
dammit
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#438364) #
The Jays are coming on strong this is good. They actually look like they they are poised to take this. I'm seeing confidence I haven't seen during the season.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#438365) #
attaboy Green. 9 pitches.

I wonder if het gets another inning. there's 3 batters until lewis is up again.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#438366) #
Whit the pinch hitter instead of Schneider. Going for vet savvy i dunno.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#438367) #
I would like the ball to get out of thr infield please.
lexomatic - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#438368) #
I really hate Schneider as a manager
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#438369) #
nice Cabrera.

pulling gausman has paid off nicely so far.

of course, Lewis is coming up first next inning - we'll see if schneider gives that matchup to Yimi, Hicks, or Romano.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#438370) #
A mob of 19,000 and change at the Trop. Apparently the lowest attendance for a post-season game since the 1919 World Series?
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#438371) #
what the heck bo
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#438372) #
yep. get a RISP and puke all over ourselves. classic jays.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#438373) #
I really hate Schneider as a manager

He's had a better game than his players. I especially like the way he used his LH relievers to get the LH bats out of the game.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#438374) #
come on hicks just nail it down.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#438375) #
phew.

but Hicks becomes the one RP probably not available tommorrow now with that pitch count.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#438376) #
that's good stuff Whit.

John Schneider is the jays game MVP for sure.

a loss would be completely on our best players.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#438377) #
congrats to the jays for letting the Twins win their first playoffs game in 19yrs.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#438378) #
The game was a microcosm of the Jays season. Generally good pitching, no clutch hitting, big bats silent.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#438379) #
Schneider did fill out the lineup card, and in the end, used a bunch of relievers in a loss, which may come back to bite tomorrow.  The Blue Jay MVP was Kevin Kiermaier who reached base 3 times. 
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#438380) #
I didn't love using Swanson in the 5th but Schneider got away with it and after that I thought the pen usage made sense. I didn't like Bo running through a stop sign but we knew baserunning was a problem with this club. But mostly this team just can't hit good pitching and hasn't all year. Tomorrow's another day though!
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#438381) #
the problem this game was they couldn't hit bad pitching, either. that reliever that embarassed them after the vladdy leadoff double is not good.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#438382) #
Wobbly start from Gausman but he is still a pretty good pitcher and did enough to keep it in reach.

Other 2023 season checklist items: loud fly balls dying at the warning track, aggressive baserunning (even if not obviously poor decisions) costing outs.
scottt - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#438383) #
Pretty tense, close game.

Overall, Gausman had trouble locating. The second homerun ball was really bad, but it's the first one that won the game. More of the bad baserunning from Bo.

Very similar to the first game last year.

Chapman came very close to having the big hit.

Bo is vulnerable to sweepers. He can't foul a pitch he can't reach.

uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#438384) #
yeah Mike he did fill out the lineup card, which included your pick Biggio putting up 4 feeble at bats in the 5 hole and the guy you wanted pulled from the lineup having the only extra base hit.
soupman - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#438385) #
The third base coach who was looking at the play put up a stop sign. The player who, I’m assuming doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, ran through it. Typical Bo/Vlad ‘enthusiasm’
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#438386) #
I had other things to do this evening so I recorded the game. Probably I'll record over it with tomorrow's game and see whether that one is more appealing.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#438387) #

Blue Jays postseason offence since 2020

Runs Scored 13
Strikeouts 45
OPS .624
AVG w/RISP .189
Record 0-5

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) October 3, 2023
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#438388) #
Guerrero Jr. had pretty good at-bats, so that wasn't the major issue. However, Schneider has conveyed through his managing over the season that the established big bats are very good, and they are not.  It sets a bad tone, in my view.   
In today's game, we had the decision to pinch-hit Merrifield for Varsho down 2 runs with a lefty on the mound.  The message delivered is that if you are a veteran and not performing well, you will get an opportunity over a young player who has performed much better.  I prefer Baldelli's managing. 


Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#438389) #
Typical Bo/Vlad ‘enthusiasm’

I don't disagree, but... Bichette and I have watched Chapman hitting for these past five months (.205/.298/.363) and I know I certainly would have been thinking that I needed to score on this ball in play.
85bluejay - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#438390) #
Hey, the Jays scored a run - I call that progress! Tomorrow maybe we double that and then it's off to the golf course - Hey, the Leafs & Raptors have opened camp and we don't want to hog the spotlight.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#438391) #
Berríos will bring it tomorrow.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#438392) #
In today's game, we had the decision to pinch-hit Merrifield for Varsho down 2 runs with a lefty on the mound.

I assumed that was because Merrifield is Varsho's RH caddy when the moment fits, as Schneider will be Belt's. And because one guy is for starting something and one guy is for finishing it.

Of course Merrifield hasn't started much of anything for the last couple of months...
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#438393) #
The Jays still have a real shot at winning this series.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#438394) #
Merrifield isn't good at either setting the table or driving them in. Espinal would be a better choice to pinch-hit if you wanted someone likely to reach base against a lefty and to save Schneider for Belt.

Anyways, it's a long-standing pattern. One of Bill James Manager-in-a-box questions was "will he give a young player a chance or does he prefer an established vet?, and I know how I would answer that one for John Schneider.
christaylor - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#438395) #
Should have put the caveat with "come back" they need to win the game. They didn't win that game.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#438396) #
I generally agree. Davis Schneider should have received more playing time in recent weeks. I'm guessing he would have performed well and put himself in a stronger position to gain some postseason playing time.

One thing that frustrates me in a manager is when a veteran does well for a while (Yangervis Solarte, Raimel Tapia, Whit Merrifield) and then gets a lot of playing time for months afterwards, no matter how poorly they perform.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#438397) #
how many managers would have let a rook play regularly through an 0 for 30 streak.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#438398) #
Magpie - I agree about the likelihood of Chapman getting a hit in that situation and why Bichette may have been inclined to be so aggressive. But, running through the stop sign with your back to the play?
James W - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#438399) #
Didn't they? As I said, I don't remember what happened after they took the lead.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#438400) #
Davis Schneider went 0-9 in Cleveland after destroying Boston in his first series. He didn't get another opportunity for a week.

During his most recent slump, he was the Blue Jays designated phantom strike victim, drawing the short straw from the umpire on quite a few occasions. An observant manager would have noted that he wasn't chasing much despite the bad calls, and was hitting in bad luck after a period of hitting in good luck.

No one us expecting him to continue at the 176 wRC+ pace he is currently at, but that is so much better than the other options on the club that many managers would have made more of an effort with him.

It's just a tendency and definitely a common one among managers.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#438401) #
Watching Moreno hit an absolute bomb to CF to put the Diamondbacks ahead doesn’t hurt one bit. Not one bit…..
Katie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#438402) #
I don't think I would have been inclined to use the bullpen exactly as John Schneider did today, as he used many of the clubs best relievers. However, only Hicks threw more than 14 pitches and the relievers kept the Jays in the game. The Jays had the game-tying run up to bat in the eighth inning with none out.

If Schneider has used Richards for a couple of innings (leaving aside whether his place on the roster should have gone to Francis or Jackson) and he let in several runs, and then the Jays scored a couple of runs in the latter innings, he'd have faced criticism for giving up on this game too early.

Maybe Green or Swanson will be less effective tomorrow, or will be unavailable for Game 3 if they pitch tomorrow, but I understand the attitude to be aggressive in the deployment of the best arms today.

Prepare to stifle your laughter, but maybe the Jays will have a blow out win over Sonny Gray tomorrow and bullpen management will be straighforward.
pooks137 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#438403) #
One thing that frustrates me in a manager is when a veteran does well for a while (Yangervis Solarte, Raimel Tapia, Whit Merrifield) and then gets a lot of playing time for months afterwards, no matter how poorly they perform.

Mike Wilner did an AMA over on the Jays Reddit yesterday during the off day.

He essentially said the High Performance Analytics Department is telling Schneider every day who in the lineup needs a day off for load management and who in the bullpen isn't available.

Schneider might be making the in-game subs, but sounds like he isn't running the show in between.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#438404) #
No laughter, Katie. They might indeed have a blowout against Sonny Gray. As long as it doesn't end the way the blowout in Game 2 last year did.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#438405) #
so they used 4 rp and we used 6. jays didn't use their closer and their most dominant rp this year only threw 3 pitches. the pen is fine and imo this is absolutely the way to use the bullpen in a playoffs game when the SP poops the bed like that.
Kasi - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#438406) #
They gave Springer a chance when he sucked for longer than Davis. Same for Whit or Chapman. Look if Davis had been having poor swing decisions or weak contact it would be one thing but he wasn’t he just was hitting a bunch of hard balls at people and K’ing his usual rate. Then they just took him out and never gave him a chance again. For a team that is solid on offence I could forgive that but this team is not that. We need our team to be younger next year and to have a manager who plays young players who have more upside than the vets. We had a nice run there with Davis and other youngsters contributing and then benched them all when vets got healthy again.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#438407) #
But, running through the stop sign with your back to the play?

Oh, it's bad....
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#438408) #
It was good that Schneider went with higher leverage guys early on, but 3-1 in the 8th should've been Garcia over Hicks. By then the comeback is unlikely and you want Hicks for extra innings or fresh for G2/3.

Not PHing for Belt against a lefty in the 7th came back to bite, as his spot did not come up again. It was an understandable decision, though.

I liked Bo's aggressiveness, Correa made a helluva play.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#438409) #
he used many of the clubs best relievers.

I think the relievers on this team are pretty much interchangeable (with the exception of the September version of Trevor Richards) so it doesn't much matter which ones he used and which he didn't. The one thing you need to do is defang the LH platoon bats.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#438410) #
He essentially said the High Performance Analytics Department is telling Schneider every day who in the lineup needs a day off for load management and who in the bullpen isn't available.

Good.

John Schneider has managed a lot of baseball games. But he's never before managed a team of major leaguers for 162 games, April through September, and these guys do tend to be quite a bit older than the players he has managed before.
soupman - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#438411) #
It's a team game. If I'm Chapman, I would take that personally (ie. you think I can't get it done?). To me, it's a bad sign. Not just because we've seen it so many times before (little league level baseball IQ), but that two guys seem to think the game is always on their shoulders. Someone should ask them if they know who the 92 WS MVP was. The broadcast mentioned that Vlad said he was 'trying too hard' in the regular season which would seem to indicate that this mentality does underlie these kinds of SNAFUs.
Nigel - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#438412) #
If the third base coach had waived Bo on and he was thrown out I wouldn’t have objected. With Chapman up next that aggressiveness was probably warranted. But running through a stop sign with your back to the play? That’s just “hero baseball”. I think it’s largely what’s wrong with our best players. To their credit, they appear to care - a great deal. But they’re constantly trying to be heroes, do too much, hit 5 run homers when moving the line along unselfishly is the right play. I think it’s symptomatic of a problem not commendable, but that’s just me.
Kasi - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#438413) #
I’d start tomorrow with Kikuchi as opener and try to get 3-4 out of him and mess up their lineup.
92-93 - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#438414) #
The Twins' damage was done by a righty.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#438415) #
Someone should ask them if they know who the 92 WS MVP was.

it was actually The Toronto Bullpen, but no one could figure out how to split the car six ways. So they just gave it to the guy with the highest Batting Average.
christaylor - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#438416) #
Jays 6 - Rays 7. They also lost to the Rays on September 23 of 2022.

Fair enough that you don't remember -- I suspect that most of this 2023 regular season will be memory wiped for me other than a vague feeling of disappointment and frustration.

My current pet theory is that the players seem to express those emotions and the fans (myself included) feed off that...

The end of the 2022 season sucked but I mainly remember the joy of the Jays and particularly them stomping all over the Sox at Fenway.

It's too early yet but I wonder what Jays teams folks here subjectively pair. I can think of the 89 or 08 teams for comps for 23. Whereas 21 or 22 were teams that were fun and had a future after the last out was made.

It's not done yet... here's hoping there's a two game win streak that shifts the narrative.
soupman - Tuesday, October 03 2023 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#438417) #
Heh- well I’m still hopeful that this years’ pen can continue to recreate some of that magic.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#438421) #
Favourite part of the season just now. I was waiting for the school bus with my kids and two elderly ladies from the neighborhood walked by bemoaning the Jays' inability to hit - esp with runners on base... lolol. And one just said "Well it's been happening all season."
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#438422) #
Marc that's pretty hilarious.

Jon Schneider is kinda managing now to leave it all on his players. Example, using all his best relievers besides closer to keep it close so onus is in players to come back and he cant be blamed.

I dont blame Bo because this team struggles offensively. Ill take that chance every time with Correa playing with a hobbled leg and plantar fasciitis. Elite arm...
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#438423) #
From Will Leitch at https://www.mlb.com/news/wild-card-2023-game-2-storylines

"This was supposed to be the next great era of Blue Jays baseball, a team loaded with young talent (Vlad Jr.! Bo Bichette! Alejandro Kirk!) and supplemented with front-line free-agent talent like Kevin Gausman and George Springer. This is supposed to be the Blue Jays' time! And now here they are, one game from losing their fourth consecutive postseason series and (if you happen to count this sort of stuff) their seventh consecutive postseason game. And they’re facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, in front of a crowd that, after celebrating something that hadn’t happened in nearly 20 years, is going to be losing its mind. The Twins released two decades of pressure on Tuesday. They also may have transferred all of it to the Jays."
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#438424) #
Incidentally, in response to Magpie's comment about using both lefthanded relief pitchers to clear out the lefties from the Twin lineup.  I don't see this as particularly smart down 3 runs, with no rest days.  Kepler hits lefties and stays.  Kiriloff is out of the game and replaced by Solano who switch-hits and hits equally well from both sides and (to my eye) plays much better defence than Kiriloff, who was very shaky.  To use one left-handed reliever in this situation would have been good to clear out a lefty or two.  To use both in that situation is, well, not necessarily indicative of managerial genius.  I'd say it was a decision that might work out and might not. 

Last year, Mayza threw in Game 1 when the team was down 3 and then surrendered the grand slam in Game 2.  It's not that he can't throw on consecutive days, but rather that he has been significantly less effective on 0 days of rest over his career than with 1, 2, 3 or 4 days of rest. 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#438425) #
MLB analyst yesterday said that a former GM told him other GMs would line up to trade for Vlad in a down year and with 2 years of control the Jays could expect a Soto like return.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#438426) #
Yeah Dalimon Schneider's dastardly plan to use the team's best players to win playoffs game is unconscionable.


soupman - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#438427) #
The Jays probably shouldn't do that (even if they got the exact package Soto netted) since no one helped the Nats this year, and the two guys that made their big league team would have dragged the Jays down. It looks like quantity over quality so far, but Wood might save it from being a colossal quantity over quality trade.

Reading between the lines, GMs probably think Vlad's down year has proximate causes (i think the wrist injury which should be healed by next year), but they also aren't interested in a star-for-star trade that the Jays would want to contend next year.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#438428) #
Even if you want to trade Vlad and rebuild why would you trust the FO that took 8yrs to get hs even to this point to do yet another decade rebuild?
bpoz - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#438430) #
I am intrigued with the revenue chart posted by John N (prior thread) which shows that the Jays are making a lot of money by competing. This prompted me to ask the question "How do the Jays stay competitive all the time?"

Nobody answered the question. I assume that question is for the off season. I gave it some thought and concluded that we build/update our facilities in Latin America. We already did Dunedin. Also spend on more scouts, coaches etc... maybe poach from other orgs. This will improve our farm overall. We got cheap successes in Kirk and Moreno. Because these kids are very young acquiring quantity is a strategy. Our DSL, FCL and FSL teams seem to have a lot of Latin players.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#438432) #
"Yeah Dalimon Schneider's dastardly plan to use the team's best players to win playoffs game is unconscionable."

I think you're misreading with your coloured glasses. John Schneider is managing to make sure he is not responsible for missed opportunities. If the Jays lose it's because his starter shit his pants and his "big bats" couldn't score runs when it counted because the managers made sure to use his best relievers to keep the game within two.

It was a response to the idea that the game was out of reach by the 8th so John could have rested the bullpen the rest of the way. If he had done that then he could be seen as letting the game get away if Minny put up another few runs. Same thing if he left Gausman in to face the heart of the order a 3rd time... if he's going to lose he's gonna make sure to highlight his players inability to get the job done. Make Atkins look bad for putting this roster together rather than have question marks and blame directed at himself.

I'm not sure where you get that anyone says he shouldn't use his best players. Quite the opposite. One thing is for sure, you will be over the moon when this team gets new management even if the new guys wont be making the playoffs half the time like Atkins has been doing.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#438436) #
Yes Schneider's decision to use his best players to win a playoffs game was to make the players look bad.


dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#438441) #
"Yes Schneider's decision to use his best players to win a playoffs game was to make the players look bad."

Negative. Schneider's decision to not leave anything on the table as a manager making chess moves was to make sure there were no excuses for his players performance.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#438442) #
Schneider managed to win a playoffs game with his best players.

Period.

Nothing to do with making or not making excuses for them.
Glevin - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#438455) #
"MLB analyst yesterday said that a former GM told him other GMs would line up to trade for Vlad in a down year and with 2 years of control the Jays could expect a Soto like return."

I would take that (although with major league or close to major league talent instead) in a second. Vlad's has now had parts of five seasons in the majors. He's been an elite hitter once (166 wRC+) and a very good hitter once (133). The other 3 years, WRC+ between 106-118. Soto's worst offensive year is a 145 WRC+. Since 2019, Soto has been the 5th most valuable offensive player. Vlad has been 83rd. I doubt anyone would give up that much for him, but I'd be happy to move on (trade for Tatis who makes a lot of money and Padres are trying to save?)
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 04 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#438462) #
CJ Abrams, who was part of the return for Soto last summer, generated 3.3 bWAR for the Nationals this year. He's 22.
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