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The Blue Jays spend the next two weeks playing Cleveland and Boston. We begin with a six game home stand, followed by a six game road trip. All very symmetrical.


The Guardians are one of just three AL teams that are scoring 5 runs per game, and when you look at their roster you wonder how that's possible. They have three good hitters - Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan - which doesn't seem quite enough. Those three have been really good, mind you. Naylor's only hitting .226, but he's on pace to hit 42 HRs and drive in 123. Jose Ramirez has been a great player for almost ten years, and he may need to begin thinking about what he's going to say at Cooperstown. But Steven Kwan is hitting .380? Seriously, three-eighty? Are they protecting him against southpaws? They are not (Kwan is hitting .431 against LH pitching.) We should also mention David Fry, who's been hitting better than Naylor, Ramirez, or Kwam. Fry is a 28 year old utility guy, in his second season - he's the backup first baseman, the third-string catcher, and he played a lot of left field when Kwan was injured last month. And when you're batting .321/.452/.565, your manager will look for ways to get you into the lineup.

The Guardians are seventh in the AL in BAVG, and they're also seventh in the AL in drawing Walks. So naturally they're third in the AL in OnBase Pct

The Guardians have been getting by without sometime ace Shane Bieber. The 2020 Cy Young winner won his first two starts in very impressive fashion (12 scoreless innings) but then had UCL surgery and is done for the year. At least Triston McKenzie is back after missing most of 2023, although he hasn't quite found his best form yet. Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen are both sophomores building on fine rookie performances; Carlos Carrasco is the prodigal returning to the scene of past triumphs after a rough 2023 with the Mets. Ben Lively is a 32 year old journeyman who was DFA'd by the Reds last year. Cleveland signed him for $750 K, gave him a chance when Bieber went down and here he is - 6-2, 2.59 in 10 starts.

As you've probably heard by now, the Blue Jays have made a roster move for tonight. The long anticipated DFA goblin has finally come for Daniel Vogelbach, and Addison Barger is back with the big club. I would say George Springer needs to start hitting very soon if he doesn't want to have the small half of a platoon gig, although the way Springer has hit against LH pitching this season makes one wonder just what he might still be good for.

Yariel Rodriguez turned in a very impressive rehab start at AAA Buffalo last Tuesday, striking out 10 in four scoreless innings. But it seems unlikely that the Jays would move him up a day to start on Saturday. Another option would be to pitch Berrios on Saturday and have Rodriguez start on Sunday. Bowden Francis will probably get one more start tomorrow while Rodriguez makes one more AAA start on Sunday and then rejoins the major league rotation after the Thursday off-day.

Matchups

Fri 14 June - Allen (6-3, 5.57) vs Gausman (5-4, 4.00)
Sat 15 June - Carrasco (2-5, 5.50) vs Francis ?? (2-2, 7.36)
Sun 16 June - Lively (6-2, 2.59) vs Berrios (5-5, 2.93)
Guardians at Blue Jays, June 14-16 | 136 comments | Create New Account
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scottt - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#447531) #
Springer is a defensive replacement.
scottt - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#447532) #
Today is also the Tony Bass Memorial Day.
Guy seemed to have disappeared from baseball.

Gerry - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#447535) #
Jose Abreu released by the Astros. He has $30M left on his contract.
Ducey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#447538) #
"Jose Abreu released by the Astros. He has $30M left on his contract."

Abreu, Vogelbach, Harold Ramirez all set free. Bad day for DH types.
92-93 - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#447540) #
Berrios pitched on Monday, so Saturday would be regular rest for him.
Magpie - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#447541) #
Garrett Cooper also gets the DFA. Very bad day for DH types.
krose - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#447544) #
Lots of online speculation about possible moves by the Jays. Barger replacing Vogelbach might be more than incremental. Barger should get substantial playing time to see if he can help the offense. Likely means less playing time for Springer. But, if Barger can hit, he could also spell Bichette.
Ducey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#447545) #
"Barger should get substantial playing time"

I hope so. The skipper seems to feel more comfortable with vets. He was not keen on Schneider early in the season and didn't play Barger much when he was up last. I feel like he did not give Horwitz a fair shake last year and Clement has not got a consistent run.
krose - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#447546) #
Agree Ducey. But Schneider seems to be more friendly to the new guys very recently. I kinda like the lineups lately. The vets on this team have had their chances and now itís necessary to do some serious patching.
John Northey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#447547) #
Right now Schneider the manager seems a lot more comfortable giving guys a chance to earn/lose jobs. Horwitz playing everyday since he came up, Schneider the player out there everyday - both given a shot in the leadoff slot. Giving Vogelbach a shot at DH semi-regularly when Turner was horrid in May is also an example. Really, I can't think of anyone on the roster who didn't get a real shot to prove they could/could not play. Vogelbach got the least opportunity and did little with it (from May 19th to June 2nd was his hot time - 450/476/750 in 21 PA after going 108/233/162 in his first 43 PA and 0-13 (2 BB) after it. He got his shot, it wasn't a lot but it was a shot and he produced a bit for awhile but nowhere near enough for a pure bat guy.

Barger in his first call-up was in 5 of 7 games the Jays played but was just 1 for 18 (a single, no walks, 6 K's). He was given a shot but did nothing with it. Now we'll see if he can do more with his second shot. But when it comes to playing guys I feel our manager does give everyone a real shot.
scottt - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#447549) #
Looks like Horwitz is sitting the first game. Barger too, obviously.
Middle of the lineup is Bichette/Turner/Springer which is worse than the bottom IKF/Varsho/Clement.

Allen throws a lot of 91 mph fastballs so totally hittable and prone to the long ball.
Here's hoping Jansen and Schneider get it going again or this could look ugly.

John Northey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#447550) #
Get a feeling lh starters will be painful for the Jays with so many good hitting lefties. If Bo & Vlad can find their stroke vs LHP then no issue but...
Nigel - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#447552) #
Allen had been terrible this year. Jays seem disinclined to lean into that.
christaylor - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#447553) #
On July 22nd, 2022 they Jays scored 28 runs against Boston. I will not be surprised if they score 28 runs total in their upcoming six games.

Clement is looking good today.
uglyone - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#447554) #
the fearsome Vlad-Bo duo strikes (out) again in the clutch.

and lol at them calling up Barger and then sitting him AND sitting hot start Horwitz too. Our manager is so so terrible.


Nigel - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#447555) #
Given that the team is only a scoring 3.9 runs per game for the season, Iíd think the over/under for Jays runs in the next 6 games would be closer to half that.
scottt - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#447557) #
Kirk pinch hitting for Varsho. I didn't expect that.
greenfrog - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#447558) #
Barger has hit well against LHP this year, so I could see starting him instead of (say) Springer in RF today. But Horwitz is still probably more of a strong-side platoon bat at the moment.

In any event, the offense is just not very good, especially with Bo, Springer, Turner, IKF and Kirk having an OPS in the .580-680 range. That's a *lot* of weak hitters to carry in a lineup.
greenfrog - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#447559) #
And Kiermaier is hitting around .550 OPS.
Petey Baseball - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#447560) #
It may be time for Mattingly to go. It's been a month since Atkins' state of the team, and there's been no improvement in the veteran hitters. Alejandro Kirk may benefit from some fresh eyes as well.

Matt Hague seems to work well with Schneider, Horowitz and Clement having coached them in AAA as Gerry and Mike Green have pointed out.

Unless the Jays are confident this recent roster shuffle will make a big difference or a big mid-season trade or trades will jumpstart the offense, there's very little else to do. One thing is certain....they just cannot keep frittering away these very winnable games, considering that the rotation is so solid and the bullpen is starting to show improvement.
John Northey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#447561) #
Yeah, hitting for Varsho makes no sense to me - the guy is one of the best hitters on the team - 115 wRC+ overall, 141 this month, 94 the past 7 days (just 18 PA) - not counting today (0-2). To hit for him with Kirk (589 OPS) is just bizarre - the L/R split cannot possibly be anywhere near that large. It was like Mr. Burns was managing (using Homer for Strawberry).
lexomatic - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#447562) #
Bo, Springer, Turner, IKF and Kirk having an OPS in the .580-680 range


People do need to remember to shift offensive expectations down this season. Yes, there are some monster seasons happening, buy league average is around 670. 0layers may be performing significantly below expectation, but not be having "weak" seasons.
John Northey - Friday, June 14 2024 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#447563) #
lexomatic - that is why I try to rely on wRC+ and OPS+ mostly (both are very close and factor in league wide offense and ballpark factors). By wRC+ (career) we get Bo: 81 (122), Springer 72 (128), Turner 93 (126), IKF 98 (82), Kirk 73 (110). So IKF is better than expected, but Bo & Springer are far below (40+ points) while Turner & Kirk are below (30+ points).
  • Over 10+: Varsho 113 (98), Jansen 127 (105), IKF 98 (82), Clement 90 (68)
  • Within 10: Vlad 126 (130),
  • Below 10-39: Kiermaier 61 (97), Turner 93 (126), Kirk 73 (110)
  • Below 40+: Bo: 81 (122), Springer 72 (128)
FYI: Biggio was down 88 (104), as was Vogelbach 71 (108). Schneider 115 (139), Horwitz 151 (125) and Barger -76 haven't had enough ML time to really count as up or down vs expectations but I'd say over as a group (S & H over, Barger not much yet).

So we have 4 guys overperforming and 1 about right. 3 too little ML time to count. Rest are bad (3) or horrid (2) with 2 others dumped who were below expectations. If I ran the Jays I'd be trying to figure out why those 4 are doing well and why the other 5 are sucking so badly - especially Bo & Springer. Are they listing to certain people? The Buffalo bunch all seem to be doing quite well - I suspect they are listing to their old batting coach from AAA Matt Hague. So who are Bo & Springer counting on? Whoever it is they need to walk away from and try listening to someone else. Bo was using his dad iirc, and I suspect Springer is using someone from his Houston days. Kiermaier needs to stop trying for power - it ain't working. Kirk ... I have no idea who he listens to. Whoever IKF is using has helped him (he had a long track record pre-Toronto only once cracking 90 for wRC+ ever in 6 seasons, just an 82 last year).
Kelekin - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#447566) #
I think you may be giving a bit too much credit to the impact of the hitting coaches. The only players that can execute at the plate are the players; and professional players know exactly what they need to do.

It doesn't mean there aren't organizational issues - but I think often times in baseball, coaches and managers are used as projection for why things are going wrong, when their impact on results is significantly less than in other sports.
scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 06:48 AM EDT (#447567) #
I dunno. Turner was supposed to be a professional hitter. He takes 2 91mph fastballs down the middle of the plate to start his AB. Maybe he's taking because the Jays went down on 6 pitches in the first, but that's not a good AB.
scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#447568) #
Career numbers for guys who don't have complete seasons in the majors don't mean much.
Varsho is doing the same he was doing in his 2 good years in Arizona.
Clement in on the team because he's risen over his time in Cleveland.
These guys might be over their career numbers, but they are not over their expected results for this year.
Horwitz's samples are tiny. Schneider's are small.

Kiermaier has always been a fastball hitter.
The exit velocity is down to 85.2 mph. Career low. Seems to be due to lower bat speed.
Launch angle is up a bit, but not drastically. 6.3 vs the 5.3/5.6 of the last 2 years.

He makes a fine defensive replacement but not great when they are trailing like yesterday.
Did Kirk pinch him mostly to get KK in the game so they can sit him today?

Jansen was a big part of the offense and he's fallen off a cliff lately.
Only 3 hits yesterday which is embarrassing.

dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#447570) #
What's the downside to firing the manager at this point? I can't believe he came out and said Springer has been unlucky.
Katie - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#447571) #
Schneider backed up his player. So what? Springer knows he's struggling. He's signed through 2026. I don't get what people think would be gained by calling Springer out in public.

I don't know whether anything would change if Schneider was replaced, but his comments in press conferences have no bearing on whether he's a good manager.

What's clear is the shakeup to the hitting staff adding Mattingly and Hague and removing Hudgens hasn't resulted in the improvement some people predicted.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#447573) #
Katie,

I completely disagree. A manager's comments must be taken as a reflection of his beliefs and ideas unless you decide the manager is a phony who says one thing and does the other. Schneider backs up Springer verbally and his line up decisions and in game decisions match his comments.

What's he supposed to do? To me he can do what other managers do. Take a look at Brandon Hyde who has started benching Cedric Mullins on and off and when asked why he has publicly stated in no BS terms that Cedric is struggling and he needs to clear his head and there are better options out there. He says his player needs to do better and he won't get more playing time until he does. That's what I expect a manager to do, not "my player is having a tough time but he has been great in the past and he's had bad luck." BAL pulls the player from the line up, Schneider continues putting him up at key spots in the game as he did on Sunday. See the difference in manager's statements, approaches and the results on the field?
Ducey - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#447574) #
Manager Brandon Hyde is trying everything he can to get the 29-year-old centerfielder out of his horrendous slump.

ďHeís working so hard,Ē Hyde said. ďHeís hitting early every day. Heís putting everything into it, and heís trying to find it. I thought he took good at-bats in Toronto. He lined out to center field twice. I know itís frustrating.

ďHe held in his frustration better last night. Heís not getting the results he wants to. Heís not getting the at-bats he wanted to. Iím throwing him back out there to show him some confidence and trying to get him going."

What the manager says to the media doesn't matter. Anyway here is what Hyde said 7 days ago
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#447575) #
John Schneider on George's struggles:
June 14th
"Yeah I think with George there is definitely some bad luck with his season. He's missing pitches, it's not for lack of effort. He's going through one of those slumps that everybody goes through. There's been some underlying things that have been really encouraging about his at bats lately. He's a huge part of what we're doing here and you need to count on him that he's going to turn it around and he's done that his whole career." Ben Nicholson Smith challenged John with a follow up question regarding the comment on bad luck and John's response was "just watching his at bats he's hitting the ball hard at players. Again, George is one of the best hitters in the league and has been one of the best hitters for the majority of his career and we are going to count on him to be productive. It's a tough stretch but early on you can look back and see if a hit falls here or there then the numbers look different..."

May 19th
"We are confident in George. We need him to be who he has been. Wherever he's hitting we just want him to continue making the progress that he is making. The walks today, the double today, he's excited about the steps he's taking. For Georgie, the guy is to damn good to uh, uh, be in a rut for a whole damn season."


Brandon Hyde on Cedric's struggles:

"Heís working so hard,Ē Hyde said. ďHeís hitting early every day. Heís putting everything into it, and heís trying to find it. I thought he took good at-bats in Toronto. He lined out to center field twice. I know itís frustrating.

ďHe held in his frustration better last night. Heís not getting the results he wants to. Heís not getting the at-bats he wanted to. Iím throwing him back out there to show him some confidence and trying to get him going.

ďIíve done a little bit of both where Iíve sat him for a couple of days and let him clear his head for a few days and then get back in there. Iím just trying to help him. Weíre all pulling for him. If he can get going offensively for us, it totally changes things. Iím hoping he has a good game today.Ē

dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#447576) #
Springer -
-64 games played
-229 at bats
- did not start 4 games in a month (2 due to illness)

Mullins
-63 games
-194 at bats
- did not start 12 games in the past month

christaylor - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#447577) #
Springer has a low BABIP, which makes a case for him being unlucky. His power is gone. If he were not looking fine in the field, are nagging injuries catching up with him? I agree with those who believe hitting coaches are probably a non-factor, at least most of the time. Even when they are credited the selection bias to talk about the those "one weird tricks" that unlocks 54 HR power in journeyman player.

dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#447578) #
For a team that can't score runs what type of impact would benching George 1-2 times a week have if it meant having Horwitz in those ABs instead? 1 win? 3 wins?

This manager makes his decisions based on historical information more than present as you can see and that just seems ignorant in this analytics driven age. If Kevin Cash can bench Wander Franco because of attitude then I want the Jays manager to be able to bench due to performance. Get rid of the fraternity culture thing. Stop with the constant messaging from Atkins and Schneider that they believe in their players and the numbers say this or that etc etc.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#447580) #
One thing I realize now which I did not factor in is that Mullins is a LHH so it makes sense he has sat more.
uglyone - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#447581) #
So Baltimore is winning and scoring a ton and still sit 29yr old Mullins more than we sit 34yr old Springer even though we are absolutely desperate for offense and wins.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#447582) #
Pretty much, and our manager says that Springer has a track record that justifies the managing decisions, pretty much.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#447583) #
Anthony Rizzo was benched on Sunday and Monday by Aaron Boone due to performance. This is another example of a manager taking a leading role in the construction of the team on the field to improve performance.
scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#447585) #
No Bichette. No Schneider.  Horwitz leads off. Turner cleans up. Springer 6th. Barger 7th and playing 3rd.  KK in center.

Mike Green - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#447586) #
Davis Schneider was called up August 4, 2023.  Since that day, he has posted a .247/.354/.490 line in 370 PAs.  During that same period, George Springer has posted a .213/.317/.371 in 484 PAs. Kevin Kiermaier has posted a .222/.272/.373 line in 247 PAs. Schneider has 2.9 fWAR; Springer 1.4 fWAR and Kiermaier 0.8 fWAR during that period.  There's just a big difference in the level of their play.  Schneider is 25 and Kiermaier and Springer are 34.  If you give Schneider a day off, that's fine.  He just had one, though.  What this is about is the manager effectively saying, "Davis Schneider's role is utility player", as he did at the start of the year. And that he has  confidence that both Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer will be as good or better than Davis Schneider the rest of the year. 

It's kind of funny that it is acceptable for a Manager to "ride the hot hand" when the player has a 5 game run, but to not ride a hot hand when the player has a 100 game run. 
greenfrog - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#447587) #
For those who care about the medium/long term future of the Blue Jays organization, should they want the team to continue on the path of a .500 or slightly below .500 team this year? Or would it be better for the team to crater, precipitating a selloff of assets at the trade deadline and changes in the front office and coaching staff?

I have no idea which would be better, but Iím interested in what people think.

Of course, the best-case scenario is the team starts playing much better and makes the postseason.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#447589) #
I donít know, Mike. The manager has been playing Schneider pretty much everyday and presumably will continue to do so for the rest of the season. Maybe heís just giving Schneider an extra day off (perhaps he has a minor nagging injury). We donít have all the relevant information when it comes to these day-to-day decisions.

As for Springer, there is no easy answer. He appears to be declining badly offensively. But heís owed a lot of money for the next 2.5 years. Maybe the team is hoping he gets hot in the near term so that he can be included in a trade of some sort (probably with the Blue Jays eating at least half of the money still owed on his contract).
John Northey - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#447590) #
Well, with Schneider the hitter - last 28 days: 198/273/354 78 sOPS+ (so it sucks even factoring in this years poor offensive environment) - 603 OPS last 7 days, 475 last 14 days. Sounds like something is wrong. Maybe tired, maybe sick, maybe nothing.

Of course, Springer sOPS+ 28/14/7 are 80/19/3 (69 overall 2024) so why is he in the lineup at all? Kiermaier 51/19/49 (62 overall) so really these 2 should only be starting if no one else can play. Maybe platoon them to try to minimize the effect they have on the lineup (and so you never have both playing at once until one or the other gets going).

So today we have a solid top 3 in Horwitz/Jansen/Vlad (all 770+ OPS), then Turner whose stats are screwed by him playing sick in May but was well over 100 OPS+ otherwise, Varsho next thankfully (744 OPS) then the dead zone - OPS of 580-112-685-565, basically IKF is the only one who has hit this year of that batch with Barger's 112 being over just 18 PA.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#447591) #
As I've mentioned I much prefer the least proposed option of adding and going for it. I still think this team is good enough if they can subtract two bad hitters and add two good hitters. One gets you to the post season and two makes you a legit contender. I'm talking of the Trout/Alonso/Arraez level of hitter, if those acquisitions exist.

krose - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#447593) #
There are a number of reasons, other than insanity, for doing the same thing over and over, and continuing to get the same unsuccessful results. Management has to be hoping for a regression to the mean from one or more of the old guard. That old guard includes Bo, Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, Turner and KK. Guerrero and Turner are quite playable right now but the others need some seat time. Management must decide who to keep and who must be replaced. Those will be the big decisions in the next couple of weeks. Is KK on the bubble? Is Atlanta or another team looking for a good veteran outfielder who might help?
greenfrog - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#447594) #
The manager's decisions are working out through 5 innings. 5-0 Blue Jays and the lineup is 6/19 with 2:2 BB:K. It would be good to come away with a win on a bullpen day.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#447595) #
Agreed. Today is a good day for Schneider. Comparing to other managers EVERY day should be a top managed game.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#447597) #
Iím with Katie that manager comments to the media are essentially meaningless. Those sessions are to manage the teamís message, the media themselves, and deflect pressure from the players. Iíve heard Buck and Dan comment several times that Schneider is excellent with the media. He communicates what the Jays are doing and why in ways they understand and can relate to. Thatís the point of his job.

Heís not a red-ass, and expecting him to be is only going to lead to more frustration on your end. Also, George knows how bad heís been. Schneider shaming him isnít going to change his on-field performance.
scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#447598) #
For me, the priority is to see what we have in the top level prospects before they run out of options.
Happy to have Barger and Horwitz on the team.
Biggio and Vogelbach have been moved to make room but those were bench player,  which means some regular guys will have to play less.

I don't think a Springer trade is possible. Springer is hated in lots of places because of the Astros cheating scandal. He gets booed in a number of stadiums. Not a guy front offices would want to bet on.

Bichette is still popular. He's a big bounce back candidate, but if he repeat this next year, he will have little value at the trade deadline. I don't know what impact trading him during the year would have on the clubhouse.

KK could probably be traded at the deadline as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Playoff teams love these kind of guys.

Danner should probably get some time up. Pardinho intrigues me, I must say.

soupman - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#447599) #
nice win. is there a reason to do the gatorade bath *every* win? is there a reason vlad is the one that always does it? IKF really didn't look like he wanted to be doused. there was a game on the road where schneider had to stop vlad from doing it. i'm not trying to 'old man yells at clouds' and i don't hate fun, but i feel like all these goofy things they do...if the players don't enjoy them...why do it? who is forcing them, and if the answer is 'no one', then just stop. it seems really silly to watch them pretend like it is enjoyable when i know that it would annoy me, and it appears to annoy some of them. again, they can do whatever, but why make something that's supposed to be fun, or a surprise just a boring ritual.
Magpie - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#447600) #
is there a reason vlad is the one that always does it?

He's strong enough to lift the Gatorade bucket? (I've seen Turner involved in handing out the post-game dunkings as well.)

I also find the outfield dance pretty silly. I am old, and I have actually yelled at clouds.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#447601) #
"For those who care about the medium/long term future of the Blue Jays organization, should they want the team to continue on the path of a .500 or slightly below .500 team this year? Or would it be better for the team to crater, precipitating a selloff of assets at the trade deadline and changes in the front office and coaching staff?"


Definitely the latter. The organization is clearly behind the elite FO's, and unfortunately at least 3 of the elite FO's are in the same division (BAL, NYY, TAM). They cannot continue on the path that they are on and expect to catch up to those teams, short or long term. They need a fresh set of eyes, preferably ones that don't think Don Mattingly is the answer for offense.

At the end of the day if the Jays end up making the playoffs, then fine, it is what it is and hopefully they can go on a fluke run to the World Series like the D-Backs did last season, but it doesn't change the short or long term prognosis.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#447602) #
The point for the two posters who missed it is not Schneider's message it's his message to the media along with that message translating to his on field decisions as manager. It's frustrating when you write something and people respond to a point never made or parcel your point into a new/diffused point.

scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#447603) #
They dunk the guy who does the TV interview.
Guys can pass on the TV interview.
It's seniority based.
It's a brotherhood, a juvenile club. The rules can changed if the majority want.
It's kinda like college.

scottt - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#447604) #
The media need to write/record stuff, so the manager and the players answer questions.
When asked questions a lot of politicians don't answer but rant about the other main party.
It's a bit like that.
The upper/lower body injury in hockey is an other example of dubious info.


Michael - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#447605) #
I don't think as a fan you should ever hope for the team to do poorly and sell off.

It isn't clear that many sell offs are successful as usually you don't really get back quality in sell offs.

The Jays are still only 4 games back of the wild card with only 3 teams to catch (Detroit who they are tied with, Boston that is 1 game up, and the last wild card Twins which are the 4 games up). It is true that everyone equal or above them have scored at least as many runs as they've allowed, while the Jays are -32 in the run differential, so it is definitely an uphill climb. But it is worth seeing what the newly called up players do if some combination of them plus regression to norms for some of the underperforming hitters/bullpen comes about the Jays have a chance again.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#447606) #
At the moment Iím rooting for the Blue Jays to chase down the last WC spot, maybe with the help of another bat and bullpen arm at the trade deadline.
mathesond - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#447607) #
Agreed, greenfrog. Beats the heck out of watching them trade down to 64 wins and rely on hitting on draft picks to get better.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#447608) #
Scott, agree 100%
christaylor - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#447609) #
On the Gatorade (I suspect it is water or at worst Gatorade zero) -- I suspect it does not me what those on the outside might perceive it to mean. Really getting to have to have your praises sung by Mazel Mae (bothing against her, she's just the Jays person, they all have that person) is not something the interviewed player wants to do or is usually terribly excited about. Like a self-depricating joke, the dunking could be just a part of the social dance.

I have no insight but I suspect like any group of adult co-workers the unit self-regulates toward flattening and taking of roles. The hero of the day gets a dunking is just a role.

Also, I'm shocked anyone would dislike the outfield dance. It drips of irony. Not at the win, but they're celebrating not having to run in and out again and having one of anywhere from 70 to 90ish W on the board for their efforts.

At any rate... this year I am trying not to forget that part of entertainment is being annoyed and wanting to repeated state, "I hate it!" like Jay Sherman from the Critic.
John Northey - Saturday, June 15 2024 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#447611) #
No question, I much, much, much prefer seeing the Jays go for it vs selling off. While dreaming of kids who might be something can be fun it rarely works out. The Jays hit a lottery win with Bo & Vlad developing at the same time, then rolled snake eyes with both slumping. Now they need a few more hits - Schneider seems to be one, Barger could be (one game does not a season make though). Lets hope the Buffalo gang can keep it up.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:07 AM EDT (#447613) #
Personally, I have never felt more apathy towards a Jays team. I'm a life-long Jay's fan, and maybe it's their recent winless record in playoff games, or also being a life-long Leaf's fan, but I have zero expectations for the current crew. Even if they did make the playoffs they would follow the same script of the hitters going cold and John Schneider making stupid pitching decisions.

I still watch as many games as I can, I like most of the players on the team and I root for them to win but I just see them as a mediocre team at best as currently constructed. I hate feeling this way, but until there are major changes both on and off the field, I just don't have any hope for any near-future Jay's success.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 07:12 AM EDT (#447614) #
I wonder who sits today.
Horwtiz 1-4
Guerrero 1-4
Turner 0-2
Varsho 1-4
Barger 1-3
IKF 2-3
KK 0-3

Ideally Varsho is in center.
Bichette is supposedly day-to-day with a sore calf.
They could rest Turner to pinch hit him against a lefty reliever. That would probably be best if Bichette is back in there. Jansen has gone cold, so playing Kirk doesn't hurt as much.

Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#447616) #
If you go back and read the game threads and the content from this site from late-June early-July 2015, there was about as much apathy, disgust, cynicism, etc as there is now. Same goes for 2007 and 2008. These were point in time similar to now, where veteran players were underachieving, a lack of young talent to fill the void was apparent, and front offices were deep into their tenure, unpopular and under intense scrutiny from fans, and most media.

For as negative and reactionairy as I can be, and still am, I still prefer mushy middle to downright bad. Especially if the mushy middle involves people, who, in front of our own two eyes in the not so distant past, have gotten the job done and their potential to do it again does not require us to suspend belief. If George Springer was 36 instead of 32, if Vlad hadn't had the years '21 and '22, if Bo Bichette hadn't had shown us that he can carry a team with his bat over long periods of time in years past, we would be delusional to think that a turnaround was possible.

So that's a long way of me answering greenfrog's question. No, I don't want to see them tear the roster down yet.
bpoz - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#447617) #
Very well stated greenfrog. Also the responses have been good.

We have reached the 70 game mark so lots of baseball to be played. Baltimore fans should be happy with their team. NYY fans may complain if the team loses even 1 series. Never mind being swept. TB fans seem to not care. Jays fans are very unhappy. Boston fans probably have hope.

Regarding player movement. IMO Bo will not be traded while his trade value is low. Springer signed for 6 years so a decline is expected. He is a OF/DH now and getting overpaid as expected. There is a youth movement underway IMO. D Schneider age 25 has 312 ML ABs. So he is developing. S Horwitz age 26 62 ML ABs, playing regularly and hitting well. Barger age 24 is getting his feet wet. With his performance determining how much he plays.

The Jays are in a position to determine how good the other teams are compared to them talent wise. Our rotation is fairly good, pens of all teams are not consistent from year to year. The Jays pen has been injured and weak so there is opportunity for others. The V weak O is being addressed by a youth movement. I expect us to stagger to seasons end with a shot at the last WC which is better than no shot. I don't know enough about our luxury tax situation but expect it to be currently bad. I expect the L Tax to be resolved in the off season with more youth.
christaylor - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#447618) #
"Boston fans probably have hope."

I can report, from daily interactions with folks here in Boston, that Sox fans appreciate that the team is beating expectations, but that has only aggravated their opinion that their owner is cheap and doesn't spend enough on the team.

It's a state of fandom that's probably familiar to most of us posting here and I'm kind of glad Sox fans are experiencing it.
bpoz - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#447619) #
Thanks for the Boston fan reaction christaylor.
Glevin - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#447620) #
Ideas like tearing things down completely and going all in don't really make sense on baseball right now. Mlb rewards mediocrity which is why so many teams are there. Also, unless you are a small market team, you cannot get back to back lottery picks so white sox for example, can only pick as high as 10th this year. Orioles were awful and got 4 straight years of top-5 picks. Now, they'd have 2 years of it and 2 off. Not to mention the lottery so even if you're terrible, you might pick 6th instead of first. Expanded playoffs just allows too many teams in and this was an extremely obvious outcome.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#447621) #
Yes, Iím sure the plan is to try to be in the postseason mix most years. Maybe some years you trade a few players if youíre out of contention, with the goal of returning to contention the next year.

The high payroll could allow the Blue Jays to achieve that goal in large part. Will they field excellent teams a lot of the time? Probably not. Will they often be able to field teams that have some chance of garnering one of the last couple of WC spots? Maybe.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#447622) #
Toronto is fortunate that†Josť RamŪrez is away on paternity leave.

In recent years, the Blue Jays seemed to have the most players on the paternity list.

Indeed.
bpoz - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#447623) #
Regarding draft picks. Some mediocre team will get the last WC with 87 or less wins then win the WS and pick 30th. This could happen. Or you are the highest non playoff team with 89 wins and get the 12th pick instead of 18th because you got lucky in the lottery.
Glevin - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#447624) #
"Maybe some years you trade a few players if youíre out of contention, with the goal of returning to contention the next year."

Everyone wants the top prospects obviously but lesser prospects closer to majors are usually better than rolling the dice on some 16 YO. Sure, you might get a superstar, but chances are super low and chances prospect flames out are much higher. I'm not talking about getting a AAAA guy or something obviously, but for example, guys like Vargas and Outman for LA are very interesting to me.
Ducey - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#447625) #
I guess I am in the minority. I'd like to see a teardown.

Jettson KK immediately, trade Jansen, Kikuchi and Garcia at the deadline, then fire the GM. This winter the new GM can look to trade Vlad, Bo and Bassett. They might have to hang onto them with the hope Vlad and Bo rebound in their FA yr. Might have to trade next deadline.

They might have to spend a few years in the wilderness but if they do a good job flipping the many assets they have they could have a good young team in a few years.

I'd rather have the excitement of watching new players develop (remember when Vlad and Bo were coming up) than the mediocrity we have had this season and last.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#447626) #
Mlb rewards mediocrity which is why so many teams are there.

That's a weird thing to say.
The goal is that have 30 competitive teams even if that never happens.
All teams are not equal in MLB. There are large market teams, middle market teams and small market teams. Large market teams are discouraged from winning by overspending, but that doesn't necessary stop the owners. Small market teams receive money and extra draft picks to help them compete.
The league is still trying to find ways to discourage some teams from losing on purpose.
The league has successfully fixed the draft as teams can no longer get the best prospects by giving them more money. International signings are still a source of imbalance because the Dominican players think they would get less money if there was a draft and are opposing it.

Baltimore is a small market so it's easier for them to rebuild by tanking.

The NHL rewards low tax states, so you see teams from Texas and Florida dominating which is ridiculous for a sport played on ice. They need to fix that. 
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#447627) #
Even before the recent changes to the draft, it wasnít a slam dunk that a team would achieve excellence after tanking. Several commentators have discussed the myriad ways in which Elias skillfully rebuilt the Oís. And high picks donít guarantee a good selection (as the Blue Jays found out with Austin Martin and maybe also with Nimmala).
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#447628) #
There are no Vlad or Bo coming up.
The Jays have no underpaid starts that could be moved for prospects. The good players are getting paid and wouldn't bring anything in a trade.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#447629) #
Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Berrios, Varsho, Schneider, Garcia, Vladdy, Bo, Jansen, Clement, Barger, Horwitz, IKF, RomanoÖthe Blue Jays have a lot of desirable assets if they want to rebuild.

But I donít think a major rebuild is coming, for the reasons mentioned upthread.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#447630) #
The old argument against tanking is that if you were to project five years after a rebuild and see the Jays roster construction (minus being able to look at the stats) and see on paper what the Jays have built (they have young, talented players in their prime, and they aren't drastically overpaying anyone on the 40 man....even Springer's contract is reasonable) you wouldn't be able to hope for much more. Injuries, underperformance, and flat out luck are the biggest forces. For example, we are whining much less about the Varsho trade this year, because the guy is playing at or close to his potential in '24.

This isn't in defense of Atkins or Shapiro or any Jays decision maker or player. But nothing is more frustrating than constant rebuilds that amount to the same mushy middle...or even a rebuild that results in disaster (cite the myriad of cases in each pro sport).

Which is why, as inept as this front office has been, you still hope for a turnaround. We don't want to see Sam Gavilos, Clay Buchholzs', and Jacob Waguespacks, and Socarates Brito...and that's just the most recent rebuild.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#447631) #
And now that I look...Varsho has easily outplayed Gurriel so far this season.

I don't begrudge the Springer signeng, he was one of my favorite players in baseball when was an Astro.

I've been agnostic about the Varsho trade, as frustrated as anyone else at his low points, I never pined for the days of Gurriel's poor defense or extremely streaky bat.

I've begrudged their inability to pony up and add difference making free agent signings to the core, as I see Rogers as easily able to be a top 5 spender in the league.

I never liked John Schneider as the permanent choice to replace Montoyo and still don't.

And recently, I've adopted the belief that the failure to get Bo and Vlad (or even one, frankly) has contributed to the downturn in their play the last couple years.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#447632) #
With the Blue Jaysí relatively high payroll, they should be able to compete in many years ó if they can generate a decent pipeline of inexpensive young talent from the minors. Young talent + complementary pieces (and the occasional big piece) in free agency is a decent formula for success.

The team needs to work on its acquisition and development of young talent, though. I donít know if a new front office is needed to make this happen.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#447633) #
I should say...failure to sign Bo and Vlad (or either, frankly) to long term deals has contributed to their downturn in production.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#447634) #
Because money automatically means production. Like with Springer?
Small market clubs have to try to sign player on long term friendly deal, like the Guardians have done with Ramirez. Large market teams like NY and Boston can afford to wait to better project the value of a player. The Yankees never give extensions. I'd be horrified if Bichette was on a costly long term deal.

If there is no discount, there is no reason not to wait until free agency, offer a QO and try to resign the player then.

Chapman has a .707 OPS, 2.6 bWAR.
IKF, .694, 2.2 bWAR.
Chapman is reported to have turned down 125M over 6 years.

Nigel - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#447635) #
I say this as a compliment to the Guardians players and not a criticism of the Jays - Kwan and Gimenez are both better than any current Jay: Iíve definitely been late to that realization. Wonderful players.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#447636) #
Embarrassing first inning for Toronto (bases loaded followed by non-scoring outs by Varsho, Springer, Kirk).
krose - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#447637) #
That is classic 2023-24 Jays. Bases loaded, nobody out and fail to get a hit or walk.
krose - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#447638) #
There is my beef with J. Schneider. These kids have shown better plate contributions than Springer or Kirk. So why not bat them up in the lineup?
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#447639) #
These kids have shown better plate contributions than Springer or Kirk. So why not bat them up in the lineup?

Don't know what you're getting at here. Horwitz-Schneider were batting 1-2 in today's lineup, which is about as high in the lineup as it gets. Barger came into the game 2-21 as a major leaguer, so he hasn't actually shown much of anything yet. Clement certainly isn't a kid.
krose - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#447640) #
Objection- Argumentative
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#447641) #
BerrŪos has settled in nicely.
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#447642) #
I like Springer as the DH today. Not because he had a decent day yesterday. Because he can't go out in the field on defense and comfort himself with the thought that he can make himself useful that way. No, he's got to sit there all afternoon and contemplate how badly he's sucked today.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#447643) #
I donít think Horwitz is just some AAAA guy. He gets on base.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#447644) #
Enter Sandlin.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#447645) #
Thatís how you avoid a disappointing Springer PA!
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#447646) #
Enter Sandlin.

Exit Sandlin.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#447647) #
Love seeing Barger get a couple of hits including an RBI single. Good for his confidence.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#447648) #
With a better manager the Jays would have take 4 of 6 games from Milwaukee and Cleveland. That's with Bo pooping himself. Definitely should add as Barger/Horwitz/Clement will likely impact the runs for/against positively over Biggio and Vogelbach... more so if they continue to take at bats from slumping players.
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#447649) #
With a better manager the Jays would have take 4 of 6 games from Milwaukee and Cleveland.

You're going to need to actually explain how another manager turns around either Friday night's game or one of the two they lost in Milwaukee.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#447650) #
Do you see anything different between the games in which they score and the one in which they don't?
Clue, look on the bench.

Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#447651) #
look on the bench.

I'm looking. In the three games they lost this week, Turner was on the bench for two of them. Kiermaier was on the bench for all three. I have no problem with that.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#447652) #
Magpie,

Easy answer. Don't bring in Mayza to give up three runs on Sunday vs Milwaukee. Don't put that play on with Kirk to throw to 2nd with a runner on 3rd. Don't let Springer bat and strike out on 3 pitches. That's 3 reasons from one game. Are you watching the games? A bit surprised you're asking how the manager could do better when the criticism (everywhere) has been pointed and clear.
Michael - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#447653) #
The offense does look better playing some of the Buffalo guys.

Here are 12 players slash numbers, 6 career numbers (for either famous weak hitters or former Jays weak hitters - all of whom played at least some SS), 6 2014 current numbers (all either Jays, or released, or both), ranked by OPS. Without looking it up can you figure out who are some of the players (partially motivated by seeing a former Blue Jay now a Cleveland coach highlighted in the Father's day coverage combined with current Jays DH numbers)?

Player A 267/297/375 OPS:672
Player B 237/286/342 OPS:628
Player C 254/293/322 OPS:614
Player D 237/320/289 OPS:609
Player E 249/285/319 OPS:604
Player F 195/321/280 OPS:601
Player G 233/273/323 OPS:596
Player H 196/290/289 OPS:579
Player I 186/278/300 OPS:578
Player J 195/242/309 OPS:551
Player K 215/245/262 OPS:507
Player L 124/167/195 OPS:361
krose - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#447654) #
Magpie, would you be okay with Bichette on the bench, even if he wasnít injured? For me the bench should be KK, Turner, Bichette and a catcher. Flexibility and some short term thinking might help with lineups that hit a little better.
krose - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#447655) #
Rodon is in LF for the Bisons today.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#447656) #
Take the win, but Yimi got hurt.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#447657) #
Had Ďem all the wayÖ?
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#447658) #
Don't bring in Mayza to give up three runs on Sunday vs Milwaukee. Don't put that play on with Kirk to throw to 2nd with a runner on 3rd. Don't let Springer bat and strike out on 3 pitches.

The Jays played Oakland on Sunday. I know, I was watching the game.

Yes, they screwed up the double steal against Milwaukee. It's a play they've run very well in the past. Mayza's been bad, but it was Zach Pop who couldn't get the third out and gave up three runs. Someone's got to pitch the sixth inning. If you don't let Springer play that day, you're playing Kiermaier instead. If that's what you prefer.

So easy to take the test after you know the answer.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#447659) #
Caleb called the play on the double steal Idiotic.
Could have eaten it. Could have faked a throw and gone to third. Could have thrown it to the pitcher.
Just too much speed on the bases to ask the second baseman to catch it and go home.

My gripes are about the games in which the best hitters are on the bench and they score only 1 run.
Vladdy does a lot better when the hitters around him are getting on bases.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#447660) #
Sounds Garcia is hurt to some degree. Right elbow soreness. The Blue Jays have been leaning heavily on him this year. Heavily used, hard throwing, slider-reliant pitcher ó like Romano. Both injured this year.
bpoz - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#447661) #
Manager J schneider had to manage his pitching staff. Berrios and the pen. Was he ok/good?
greenfrog - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#447662) #
The Buffalo Boys ó Schneider, Horwitz, Clement, Barger ó are doing their best to save the Blue Jays 2024 season. All relatively unheralded players. Maybe Orelvis, Lukes and Roden will play a role later this season as well.
scottt - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#447663) #
Romano and Swanson and Green and Rodriguez and Francis and Manoah. Is that all?
Espino and Tiedemann?

He pitched a lot because he was available.
Inning pitched: (before today)
Richards 35
Pearson 27.1
Garcia 27.1
Cabrera 26.2
Francis 26
Mayza 21.1
Pop 19.1
Rodriguez 15.1
Green 14.1
Romano 13.2
Swanson 13.2
Mitch White 10
Brendon Little 9.2
Wes Parsons 5.0

Mitch White has bounced to the Giants and then the Brewers. Wasn't good anywhere. Now in AAA.

So, yeah, the only guy who is not "heavily used" is Mayza because he has sucked.
The  other guys have either been injured or in AAA.


Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#447664) #
Caleb called the play on the double steal Idiotic.>/i>

Well, Caleb couldn't have made that play. Kirk can, and he has. Just not this time.
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#447665) #
Italics? Begone.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#447666) #
Phillies manager Rob Thomson was ejected during today's game in Baltimore. A fine example of how to chew out an umpire.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#447667) #
"So easy to take the test after you know the answer." The correct answer was to pinch hit Springer with a better hitter not a defensive replacement. You're a fan of John Schneider, nothing wrong with that...but say that instead of pointing out he didn't make errors in judgement or make it seem that he couldn't have done better...that's Atkins take.

Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#447668) #
The correct answer was to pinch hit Springer with a better hitter not a defensive replacement.

Jansen had just pinch hit for Vogelbach, in the seventh. That left Turner, Kiermaier, and Guerrero on the bench. Turner would pinch hit for Varsho in the eighth against the LH, with Kiermaier coming in to play defense. After Springer struck out in the ninth, Guerrero pinch hit for Kiermaier. That's everyone on the bench, unless you want to find out how Kikuchi can hit.
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#447669) #
You're a fan of John Schneider

Not really - I think he's basically John Gibbons, Mark II. A competent enough pilot if the machine is in good working order. That may not be what this group needs - they may need an actual Problem Solver.
Michael - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#447670) #
Didn't get any takers on the players above, but here are the dozen I pulled (6 career weak hitting SS versus 6 current year releases or Jays - the * are 2024 stats):

Neifi Perez 267/297/375 OPS:672
*Bo Bichette 237/286/342 OPS:628
Cesar Izturis 254/293/322 OPS:614
Munenori Kawasaki 237/320/289 OPS:609
Alfredo Griffin 249/285/319 OPS:604
*Cavan Biggio 195/321/280 OPS:601
John MacDonald 233/273/323 OPS:596
*George Springer 196/290/289 OPS:579
*Daniel Vogelbach 186/278/300 OPS:578
*Kevin Kiermaier 195/242/309 OPS:551
Mario Mendoza 215/245/262 OPS:507
*Jose Abreu 124/167/195 OPS:361

At least we didn't have Jose Abreu to a longer term contract? But still KK and Springer shouldn't be 2/3 of our outfield (or outfield + DH) and arguably shouldn't be 1/3 of our outfield. Both could be pinch runner/defensive replacements (especially as Springer has actually looked pretty good in the field this past month).
Nigel - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#447671) #
I think Schneider is entirely representative of this regime - I think you can do a lot worse but there also doesnít seem to be anything special about him.
Magpie - Sunday, June 16 2024 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#447672) #
I think Schneider is entirely representative of this regime

I'm not sure what to think. On the one hand, his bullpen has completely disintegrated and half his Proven Hitters have forgotten how to hit. How on earth does he have this team within a game of .500? That may be a pretty decent job of steering the ship, under those circumstances.

On the other hand - he has serious problems with his offense and your bullpen. He needs to fix them! So it's a very unimpressive job of Problem Solving.

I think it's much harder to find Problem Solvers than it is find good pilots. And while you always, always need a good pilot you really don't always need a Problem Solver. But this team may be an exception.
scottt - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 06:07 AM EDT (#447673) #
Blake Perkins is in the 95th percentile for sprint speed.
Just because you've thrown out one runner doesn't mean you can throw out any runner.

Biggio got booed by the Dodgers fans.
He struck out 3 times on called strikes with guys on bases.

scottt - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#447674) #
Right now we got 0 hitter with and OPS of .800 or more.
Jansen .791
Horwitz .789
Guerrero .780
Varsho .758
Schneider .742
Clement .707
IKF .690

There there's a couple of guys who have shown life at times.
Turner .659
Bichette .628

The rest need to work on their stuff from the bench.
Kirk .580
Springer .578
Kiermaier  .551

Barger is in a different category with .352.

Ducey - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#447675) #
"Biggio got booed by the Dodgers fans.
He struck out 3 times on called strikes with guys on bases."

As I said the other day, he has one foot out of MLB. I imagine the Dodgers will have a hard discussion with him, telling him to protect the plate. I'd be interested to know how hard the Jays would have pushed him, or any of their players.

My impression of the last 2 managers for the Jays is that they not exactly disciplinarians. The recent accountability has come from the GM who jettisoned DV and Biggio.

In other news, the Jays are 2-0 with Bo sitting the last 2 games. Another guy who needs to adjust his approach and stop swinging at first pitch junk.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#447676) #
"My impression of the last 2 managers for the Jays is that they not exactly disciplinarians. The recent accountability has come from the GM who jettisoned DV and Biggio."

This id a really good point that is true. This regime and coaching has struggled with accountability and finally we are seeing some decisions being made but mostly from the GM to address it.

I remember GMs who would refuse to play players that sucked. What's stopping Schneider from never pitching Mayza or using him only when behind for mop up innings? It's bizarre to me to keep running him out there when he does. Schneider did the same thing with Romano when eh came back from injury and later from spring training. It seems to me Schneider does not subscribe to "earning it," unless it's a player he doesn't yet know. "Buffalo boys...earn your playing time. Everybody else, you're good I've got your back."
dalimon5 - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#447677) #
Godriquez activated today.

Odds that the Dodgers struggle with Mookie Betts/Yamamoto out of the lineup and Toronto remains below .500 thus forcing the former to trade for Kikuchi and Bo at the deadline? That would be a hell of a haul for both teams.

Ideal world, that happens and the Jays remain in contention for 3rd wild card. They restock farm, punt 5th starter and rely on Clement and Orelvis to help replace Bo.
Mike Green - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#447679) #
I think it's much harder to find Problem Solvers than it is find good pilots. And while you always, always need a good pilot you really don't always need a Problem Solver. But this team may be an exception.

Bill James had a Manager in a Box feature, which included items such as preference for one-run strategies vs. the big inning.  One of the items was the style or overall philosophy of the Manager- Problem Solver was one; he had a name for the pilot type, but I've forgotten it.  The best Managers, like Herzog and Weaver, had aspects of two or more styles working at the same time.   It's a short walk from Manager in a Box to Manager in The Box. 

The Blue Jays moved back to the RC after the pandemic journey to Dunedin and Buffalo on July 30, 2021.  Their leaders in wRC+ over the almost 3 years since then:
Schneider- 137
Jansen- 133
VGJ- 128
Bichette- 119
Horwitz- 115
Springer-114
Clement-112
Kirk-109
IKF- 99
Varsho-94
Kiermaier-92

Jansen is 29.  Springer is 34.  At age 29, Springer posted a wRC+ of 155 and at age 32, it is 72 so far.  I am confident that Springer was a much better hitter than Jansen when both were 29 and that Jansen is a much better as of 2024.  Time can be a cruel beast, but it's best if it is acknowledged.  The club cannot afford to have Jansen sitting on the bench for too many games.   Alejandro Kirk is hitting the ball much better recently; he's been hitting in bad luck, with an xwOBA of .325 and a wOBA of .267 (his BABIP is .216 despite a line-drive rate of 22%).  His maxEV is the highest of his career, and his average EV is well above average.  We should be seeing Kirk C and Jansen DH in many games. 


uglyone - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#447680) #
My reason for preferring OPS+ to OPS - run environments in baseball can change drastically from year to year and league to league. Raw OPS can mean something significantly different from year to year. OPS+ pegs OPS to league average, with 100ops+ being league average.

My reason for preferring wRC to OPS - OPS is nice and simple but it's essentially inaccurate as it double-counts batting average, as batting average is a big chunk of both OBP and SLG. wRC is closer to OBP + ISO, only counting AVG once, although it adjusts that slightly as the run value of a single is moderately more than a walk.

That's why I rely on wRC+ as my go-to all-encompassing offensive number.

0 Excellent hitters so far this year:

* n/a

2 (3) Very Good hitters:

* Guerrero 310pa, 128wrc+
* (Horwitz 31pa, 128wrc+)
* Jansen 158pa, 126wrc+

2 Good hitters:

* Varsho 249pa, 116wrc+
* Schneider 234pa, 113wrc+

2 Average hitters:

* Falefa 230pa, 99wrc+
* Clement 128pa, 99wrc+

2 Bad hitters:

* Turner 229pa, 93wrc+
* Biggio 131pa, 87wrc+

4 Very Bad hitters:

* Bichette 276pa, 80wrc+
* Springer 269pa, 72wrc+
* Vogelbach 79pa, 71wrc+
* Kirk 132pa, 70wrc+

1 (3) Awful hitters

* Kiermaier 136pa, 57wrc+
* (Barger 26pa, 2wrc+)
* (Serven 10pa, -13wrc+)

Mike Green - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#447681) #
The Statcast numbers for Blue Jays pitchers are here.  Some positives among the uninjured:  Chad Green has been good, as have Pearson, Little and Richards.  Green, Pearson and Richards were last year, too.  In the did you know dept: Francis has had a lower xwOBA than Gausman in both 2023 and 2024. 

What I would do with the pen now.  Chad Green is the closer/ace.  Pearson is the set-up guy.  Little and Richards are the 6th and 7th inning guys. Cabrera will come into face a lefty-leaning group if Little has the day off or earlier in the game.   Francis is the long-reliever, paired with Rodriguez and good for one other outing in between most times.  Mayza gets multiple inning very low leverage work.
Nigel - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#447682) #
When I referred to Schneider being representative of this FO I meant it in terms of quality rather than style. Frankly, Iíve yet to discern what type of club this FO prefers. When they first arrived I thought that they preferred offense over defence, power over OBP and cared little for balance in their lineups. While those were features of the team that they inherited they certainly carried on and even reinforced those features. Over time, theyíve pretty much flipped those features of the roster over 180 degrees. So, what this FO values is pretty hard to discern. I tend to think thatís a problem. As has been discussed on here before, the best I can tease out of their history here is that they: value positional flexibility highly in their player development and evaluation; donít place much value on speed and athleticism; tend to risk aversion; and tend to react slowly with respect to making changes (I suppose you could phrase that as ďpreferring stability and continuityĒ :)).
scottt - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#447684) #
There is possibly an opportunity to trade Bichette to the Dodgers who lost Mookie Betts to a broken left hand. There is a good chance that he bounces back the rest of the year but I don't see him as an extension target given his poor defensive value.  I would certainly explore that if I was Atkins.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#447685) #
Basically Mike Green has provided very basic and common sense adjustments that this manager can use which is based on the results. Aside from Kirk improving only because he has been playing less (I wouldn't play him more often), Mike is pretty much bang on and we should see an improvement from this team using his suggestions. Only the manager can make those choices.

Tragically (!?) John Schneider will likely continue to roll with the hope of a "regression to the mean" from his under-performing players.
scottt - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#447686) #
Kirk is a bad hitter right now. It doesn't matter that he was a good hitter 3 years ago. He's not that guy anymore. It's best to just acknowledge that.

Jansen is always just a pitch away from an injury. He's also in a big slump right now. His OPS has dropped by over .300 points. Probably black and blue all over.
uglyone - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#447687) #
I don't think the FO prefers any specific style of play, i think they just try their best to exploit market inefficiences.

92-93 - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#447688) #
I would rather see Pearson as the Closer, keeping Green available for the harder job of relief ace.

Of course it would just be best if nobody was the Closer, and Schneider just focused on winning the damn ballgame.
pooks137 - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#447691) #
The broadcast flashed up a Statcast leaderboard yesterday when discussing how difficult Steven Kwan is to get out & how much he cuts down his swing.

An interesting note is that Justin Turner was featured on their graphic has having a Bottom 5 swing speed in thr league.

Looking up the data, it is in fact true, though it seems they are only displaying 215 or so qualified hitters.

The interesting thing is that it Turner's cohort at the bottom of the data isn't similarly really old guys losing quickness.

Turner is bottom 1st percentile for swing speed with the likes of Luis Arraez, Nicky Lopez & Brice Turang - all contact, low power hitters.

Similarly, Turner is also Bottom 5 in the league for Swing Length, indicating that he's adjusted to slower swing speed by cutting down his swing as well.

It's interesting that a former middle of the road power hitter like Turner now displays a complete slap hitter swing profile but without similarl results.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?sortColumn=avg_sweetspot_speed_mph_qualified&sortDirection=desc
Gerry - Monday, June 17 2024 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#447692) #
Joey Votto is playing in the FCL today.
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