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There wasn't much to talk about on the field with all the affiliates losing so lets take a look at how the Jays prospects are doing now that we have passed mid-season.

Buffalo 2 Rochester 11

Portland 7 New Hampshire 3

Vancouver 1 Everett 8

Clearwater 12 Dunedin 3

FCL Blue Jays 1 FCL Phillies 2

Three Stars

Three Stars - pass



Gabriel Cancel hit another home run, his fifth in seven games. Cancel has played really well for Buffalo since his arrival just over a week ago. So who is this guy? Cancel is Puerto Rican and he was drafted in the seventh round of the 2015 draft by KC. He worked his way up the KC system, reaching AAA in 2021. He hit .238 but he hit 14 home runs in 57 games. He went back to AAA in 2022 and hit just .221 and his home run count was down to five. He played in an independent league in 2023 and again in 2024. He did hit 17 home runs in 53 games this season with a .282 average. That got him a contract with the Jays. His power therefore seems legit but the batting average is unprecedented. It remains to be seen what the Jays do at the trade deadline but I could see Cancel getting a chance later in the season. At 27 he might be coming into his prime.

Other than the Cancel home run the Bisons didn't have a lot going. Riley Tirotta and Will Robertson doubled and Alan Roden, who has been scuffling, had two hits.

Paolo Espino came off the IL and gave up three runs in 1.2 innings. Erik Swanson pitched well and did have two strikeouts out of five outs. Eric Pardinho hasn't solved AAA yet. He walked three and added two hits while getting just two outs. His AAA ERA is over twelve.

New Hampshire were 4-0 down in the sixth. Michael Dominguez and Anders Tolhurst each gave up a couple of runs.

Rainer Nunez hit his eighth home run in the sixth to make it a 4-1 game. Portland walked five Fisher Cats in the seventh to make it a 4-3 game before Portland scored three off Jimmy Burnette in the ninth.

Juaron Watts Brown made his Vancouver debut and through three innings it was going well. But in the fourth Everett scored four runs on five hits and a walk. That was it for his debut. Rafael Ohashi also gave up four runs.

Seven hits for the C's, Jeff Wehler and Jackson Hornung had two each.

Dunedin had no pitching and trailed 10-0 in the eighth inning. The Jays had four hits through seven innings. In the eighth Arjun Nimmala tripled, Christian Feliz singled, Tucker Toman doubled and Manuel Beltre doubled. Three consolation runs. Nimmala also walked and he has been more aggressive in his second go around the FSL, the walks are unusual now. He was overly passive early in his career.


Let's see how the Blue Jays prospects are doing. As usual I am looking to see which prospects have taken a step forward this season.

Pitchers who are, or have been injured this season

Ricky Tiedemann

Brandon Barriera

Kendry Rojas

Landon Maroudis

Chad Dallas

Hagen Danner

Dahian Santos

I don't believe any of these have improved their status as prospects this season.

Hitters who are, or have been injured this season

Adrian Pinto

Cade Doughty

Same as above

Special Case

Orelvis Martinez

His six months off will not be good for his prospects.

Hitters with an wOBA under .325

Miguel Hiraldo .274

Enmanuel Bonilla .291

Estiven Machado .295

Gabriel Martinez .297

Alex De Jesus .308

Tucker Toman .309

Yhoangel Aponte .319

Most of these hitters were lower ranked coming into the season other than Enmanuel Bonilla who has been disappointing after a decent start. None of them have hit well enough to improve their expectations.

Other Hitters wOBA

Rainer Nunez .328

Edward Duran .328

Manuel Beltre .331

Nick Goodwin .334

Damiano Palmegiani .336

Josh Kasevich .336

Sam Shaw .338

Ryan McCarty .347

Jace Bohrofen .350

Will Robertson .350

Alan Roden .350

Arjun Nimmala .363

Steward Berroa .371

Leo Jimenez .378

Victor Arias .379

Phil Clarke .382

Dasan Brown .382

Hitters on this list who play a premium position such as Brown, Clarke, Jimenez and Nimmala are doing OK. The outfielders have more marginal numbers. Outfielders or first basemen need to hit really well to get ranked highly as a prospect. Which of these players have improved their ranking? Berroa, Arias, Kasevich and Clarke, probably Leo Jimenez. Sam Shaw is doing well for a young un. Jimenez profiles as a major league regular but the others still have questions about their future major league role or are still a long way away.

Pitchers xFIP

Connor Cooke 6.47

Michael Dominguez 5.36

Mason Fluharty 4.97

Nolan Perry 4.62

CJ Van Eyk 4.35

Hayden Juenger 4.19

Adam Macko 4.03

Trenton Wallace 3.95

Juaron Watts Brown 3.64

Fernando Perez 3.32

Lazaro Estrada 3.30

Rafael Sanchez 2.72

Adam Macko and the players with a better xFIP are doing well. Fernando Perez is heading to the Futures Game. The others are younger and developing without having a big reputation.

I have listed 46 prospects. So bottom line, how many Blue Jay prospects have improved their reputation this season? Josh Kasevich, Steward Berroa, Phil Clarke and Adam Macko. Lazaro Estrada and Rafael Sanchez are pitching well. Which of these to we expect to be major league regulars? Kasevich maybe, and Macko? Berroa and Clarke look like backups.

Bottom line, just like the major league team, the minor league development has been disappointing this season. Maybe the Jays lousy play on the field has clouded my judgement and the organization has been badly hit with pitcher injuries but I don't see a pretty picture. This is another reason for the Jays to trade away some players, the system needs more talent.

Mid Season Prospect Review | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#448731) #
Thanks for the prospect list Gerry.

No Wow prospect performances so far this year. But with quantity we could get lucky. I actually expect it.
Mike Green - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#448734) #
I had low expectations for Orelvis and Barriera, so I have a more optimistic look at the prospects than Gerry.  I would count Horwitz as a prospect at the beginning of the year, and he now looks like a good player and ready to supplant VGJ at any time.  I need to see more of Jimenez, but it wouldn't shock me at all if he ends up being an improvement on Bichette.  Schneider is a good player, and his overall career line looks good.  And among the pitching prospects, I have been pleasantly surprised by the development of Wallace and Macko.  And Tiedemann's injuries do not seem to have detracted from his performance too much.  He turns 22 next month and it wouldn't shock me to see him in the major league bullpen sometime this year.  That's what I would do anyways. 

They do however need to clean house in management at the major league level. 
Ducey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#448735) #
I'm confused by the OPS listed. That's not their OPS. The OPS for Kasevich is mid 700 for example
mathesond - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#448737) #
Maybe it's OBP?
Glevin - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#448738) #
Nimmala has been very good since going back to Dunedin showing power, contact, not striking out much. He's still only 18 at A Ball (Most other prospects there Arias, Beltre, toman, etc... are 20) so right now he looks like pretty easily the best offensive prospect in the system to me.
uglyone - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#448741) #
Nimmala's already up to a league average 99wrc+ in A as an 18yr old. That's quite good already.

But if his performance since being called back up continues then he's well on his way to being a very good hitter in A at an SS....which could quite quickly put him in contention for top prospect lists.
Mike Green - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#448742) #
Nimmala is just 18, so there's plenty of time for him. His profile this year is a lot like Orelvis', not enough contact and too much air- 3 times the number of pop-ups as home runs. My very subjective reading of the tea leaves is that he is a better defender. Give him 3 years and see where he is then.
pooks137 - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#448743) #
I suspect the three digit stat for hitting prospects in the table is wOBA or some variation thereof.

IIRC, it's an aggregate stat that uses the linear weights of their batting counting stats then uses some formulas and coefficients to make the final result resemble OBP parameters in terms of presentation.
Mike Green - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#448747) #
Spencer Horwitz talks hitting with David Laurilia.  I guess he's too young to have Wade Boggs as a hitting model. 
Gerry - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#448749) #
It was wOBA, my bad, I will fix.
Nigel - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#448750) #
This list just confirms a view I've had for a while now that Jimenez might be the team's best prospect. Now, Tiedemann is obviously the best prospect if healthy, so he's in a different category because we just haven't seen a stretch of good health in a while.
Kelekin - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#448754) #
Thanks for the update Gerry.

Looking at some unheralded/non-qualified prospects:

Kendry Chirinos (19, FCL) - .393 wOBA, 123 wRC+
Peyton Williams (23, A+) - .375 wOBA, 126 wRC+

Though he's old for the level and potentially a non-prospect, I've been impressed watching Williams. He is surprisingly mobile for such a big and tall dude and great plate discipline. Definitely more in the Horwitz model.
bpoz - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#448781) #
Connor Cooke is giving up much more BBs this year than ever. I suspect the AAA hitters are not chasing. All his other numbers are the same. As a 2021 draft he is not a minor league FA until after 2026.

Our AAA relievers are a big disappointment to me.
bpoz - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#448783) #
C Feliz for July 16 ABs, 3 Hr, 3bb, 3k and 500 Avg. SSS but his best stretch of play. Still 2 months to play.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#448796) #
Cooke's had a big time velo drop this year. He's been more 93-95 as opposed to his previous 96-98 mph.
Mid Season Prospect Review | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.