The AL playoff teams should go something like this. 6 in, 9 out. 3 V good, 3 V bad I am guessing. I don't see the Jays in either category. So likely 3 positions available for the Jays to put up a competitive season each year.

Playoff is something else. Why did Freeman and Teo out hit Ohtani by such a big margin? Sort of suggests that in any series a V good player's O can disappear. Regarding D a good D player should not be bad in any series but rather good in all series. So Gimenez should have consistent good value based on his D. Makes sense?

Unfortunately the longer it goes, the more the media claims that the jays are "favorites" to sign Burnes sound like Burnes' agent trying to get other teams to up their bids.

Agreed uglyone - for Soto I didn't see the Jays as being there just to up the price due to the 2 NY's being in it, but this time I can see it being the case. That Burnes doesn't really want to come here but wants the Jays to push the Giants up in price. I suspect he was counting on the 2 NY's to push it up but Soto & Fried screwed that plan up, and Snell took LAD out of the picture.

Anyone else go to FanGraphs Walk-Off? Basically shows anyone who is a subscriber a ton of facts. Player page I looked at most was Justin Turner, then Vlad, KK, IKF, Barger, Springer, Horwitz, Bo, Loperfido, Bellinger. I spend waaay too much time on the leaderboards (1573 times looking at them) 97th percentile. I'm in the top 10% of users (93 percentile to be exact), Top user of 'The Board', Data Digger (gee, shocking eh?), and Leaderboard Legend. Dan Szymborski's articles are the ones I read the most.

D Williams to NYY.

Tucker and Cubs in play.

Tucker for #73 prospect Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes is the rumoured base of an Astros - Cubs deal.

Vlad would get a lesser return than Kyle Tucker.

Bringing in Gimenez has to mean Bo or Nimmala or going out.

OMG - if that is all Tucker costs then I damn well hope the Jays are in on it. 2 prospects? That's it? Yes, it is just 1 year of control but 1 year of a guy with a 181 OPS+ last year, 139 lifetime. Of course, he missed a big chunk of last season but he did come back in September and had a sOPS+ of 199 so I'd guess he is still damn good. Right now he and Vlad are 1-2 for next winters free agency.

Devin Williams is damn fine as a closer but missed the first half of 2024 and, as with all relievers, there is that massive injury risk. He is damn fine though (15.8 K/9 last year, 14.3 lifetime).

Nimmala and Orelvis for 1 year of Tucker?

Would make more sense to deal Jimenez than Nimmala.
Nimmala is 18 year old. There's no need to trade him.

I imagine the Astros getting Paredes back is pretty crucial to the deal. A good MLB player now and a cheaper, more controllable Bregman replacement.

Yeah Paredes is not a prospect... he has three years of control and has been 115-130 wRC+ the last 3... key for a perennial contender like Houston.

Gimenez in no way impacts Nimmala and Toronto needs more high-end impact bats not less. Plus why trade away prospects when you're still 4-5 players away from being competitive for a wildcard spot... unless that player has 4+ years of control...

Tucker to the Cubs is official according to Passan. With that said, Paredes alone is worth more than anything the Jays could have offered for Tucker. A 25-year old 3B with 3 years of control left coming off consecutive 3-4 WAR seasons with a well above average bat. You could argue the Jays should have traded Vladdy in a move like this (for Paredes +), but I'm sure the Cubs are higher on Tucker than Vlad.

As far as who to trade, I've said before I think Jimenez is going to be moved this winter, even more so now that they acquired Gimenez. Leo is out of options and there's no clear path to playing time for him. The only potential hope for him was SS when Bichette left, but that spot has been filled with Gimenez.

Chandler Rome
@Chandler_Rome
·
10m
Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith is done, pending medicals, sources tell
@TheAthletic

Man of you cant sign Vlad to a fair deal and you can get SEA to pony up for any deal like that you have to do it. Cubs just got sooooo much better.

SK in NJ - yeah agreed, Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes is a deal the Jays couldn't match - I should've checked who was listed there rather than assuming it was 2 minor leaguers.  Houston is too well run to do something dumb like take 2 non-top 5 prospects in MLB for a guy like Tucker.  I suspect Houston feels they cannot resign Tucker next winter thus felt the need to deal him.  Now the Cubs will be desperate to deal Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki or both ASAP to clear payroll and playing time.  I'd go for Suzuki (cheaper, appears fairly solid/consistent) although Bellinger is always interesting (very variable, but if he is on he can be MVP material, if off he could be replacement level).  Doubt they want to deal Ian Happ (120 OPS+ last year, 115 lifetime, gold glove for LF) signed for 2025/26 for $40 mil total.  Any of those 3 would be nice to stick into the Jays LF slot, or get 2 and give them Springer (ain't going to happen).

Tucker is a better player projected to make half Vladdy's salary so no, you can't get teams to pony up like that.

I don't know about contract projections, but Vladdy is 2yrs younger and is likely the slightly better hitter.

Tucker does have more defensive value but i'm not sure the numbers like his defense as much as the eye test does.

Very nice trade for Houston. Helps their future without hurting their present. Cubs did well too. The NLC is the weakest division in the NL so they should compete.

Paredes was a Detroit Int'l signing that was not a big signing then he got traded to TB and later to the Cubs. So talent is everywhere. Kirk and Moreno were not big signings by the Jays for comparison.

It's absolutely why you need to trade Vlad if toy can't sign him. Astros got a 25 year old 3 WAR player, a top-100 prospect and an interesting pitcher. Vlad would certainly get similar back. Sign him or trade him.

Jays with a "big" pitcher signing: Eric Lauer, who was roughed up at AAA and in Korea.

Now Atkins is in his comfort zone.

Glevin - you just made me laugh loudly. 25 year old 3 WAR player? We just got one - for Horwitz. And people complained, loudly, all over the net. Vlad would easily get that much plus one would think. The difference here is that Paredes has never had a 5+ fWAR season unlike Giménez, and has more offensive value and much (much) less fielding value.

Not a shot at you, but at the insanity of Jays fans in general. We get a young, 3 WAR player for next to nothing and we complain because he isn't a 30 HR hitter. We see someone else deal a 181 OPS+ hitter but feel they did good because they got a 3B who hits 20-30 HR. All I can say is thank god Atkins doesn't change his methods based on online comments, or media reactions.

Eric Lauer is a LHP which the Jays need in the pen.  He only gets paid if he makes the roster (non-roster invitee right now). He has had a lot of injury issues and had a couple of decent years in Milwaukee's rotation (21/22) before the injuries hit hard.  I see him as a 7/8th guy in the pen who can fill in if needed in the rotation - you need 7 or 8 minimum for the rotation to be safe and he is around #8/9/10 for the Jays now.  His K/9 in Korea and AAA last year were fairly solid - and don't forget, Korea is a hitters league. I see him as a decent 'why not' guy for a spring invite - $2.2 mil deal if he makes the ML roster so not exactly a back breaker (blew about that on Vogelbach for who knows what reason last year).

Ugh. Just read that Santander wants a 5 year deal. No thanks. Much too long imo. 3 years is as far as I'd go with a pure slugger with near 0 defensive value. Just a 114 OPS+ lifetime, going into his age 30 season. 3.0 fWAR is his peak value. Yeah, he'd be nice for 1-2 years, maybe even 3 but imo that is pushing it - signing pure sluggers post 32 is rarely a good idea.

Parades has significantly more value because his contract is $6M in 2025 going into arbitration two more years. Gimenez has $20M a year. That being said, I think there are two main reasons Jays won't trade Vlad. One, is they know it will tank season tickets. Two is that they know their jobs depend on winning some playoff games so they're all in on this year.

Rumour has it Santander wants five years. I think he'll be an awful contract for 3 years so 5 is crazy.

The issue with Gimenez, John, is that the WAR (which is a terrible way to grade players) is tied almost entirely up in defense... and it's empty offence on a team desperate for offence. Horwitz is the complete opposite.

Marc,
Your hate for this FO is a lot! Your facts and opinions and insight is greatly valued though. You always have fresh takes that are grounded in analytics and sound reasoning, dont let your rips of the FO cover up those takes.

Kyle Tucker is the better hitter for 1 year for acquiring teams because he bats left handed, has good power and is cheaper. Vlad would get you less. I am wondering who Beauxites (and industry in general) thinks has more value...Bichette or Horwitz. I'd assume Horwitz.

I don't think Vlad gets you less than Tucker. I think it's a very similar return. Good young player under team control and top-100 prospect and something else. I said Woo and Celesten+ from Seattle as an example but with other teams bidding, could probably do more. Jays could also even pay down some salary to get better return. Still prefer extension but it needs to be one or the other.

Oh my lord. Guys, I love Horwitz but realistically his ceiling is very, very low. We are talking Lyle Overbay lite. Peaked at 22 HR, 126 OPS+ 3.3 bWAR. Horwitz has 425 ML PA's so far, 123 OPS+ 2.2 bWAR/162 average. That is a very 'meh' player at best unless you think he can actually play 2B (he can't). I would be surprised if he reaches 10 WAR total in his career. I doubt Pittsburgh will get much more from him than they did from the last 'great hope' at 1B from the Jays - Rowdy Tellez (0.4 bWAR lifetime, -0.4 for Pittsburgh). And no, Luis Ortiz is nothing special either - 6.9 K/9 lifetime (238 IP) vs 3.8 BB/9 - at best he is Ross Stripling - 9 year career, 2 good years, 0 great ones.

I don't know about contract projections, but Vladdy is 2yrs younger and is likely the slightly better hitter.

Is age really relevant when valuing Tucker vs Vlad when evaluating their worth on a one-year rental?

I suppose it could be argued that younger is better wrt potential extensions. But I would surmise that the trade return for both is contingent on simply the one pennant run year unless the deal involves an explicit window to negotiate an extension.

For a 1 year rental it would pretty much just depend on what the team needs for that year. Tucker to the Cubs seems odd as they have a surplus of OF as is, and were desperate to dump 1 or 2 of them. Right now they have Ian Happ-Bellinger-Tucker with Suzuki as the DH and 2 kids on the bench (as OF'ers) so they could get away with it, but the cost is $27.5 (Bellinger), $21 (Happ), $19 (Suzuki), and $18 for Tucker = $85.5 million for OF/DH. Ouch. Kind of makes me think of the Jays rotation where 3 are $20 million men (hopefully 4 soon by signing Burnes).

It'll be interesting to see if the Cubs do trade at least one of their OF'ers (Bellinger or Suzuki are the ones they are trying to). Could fit in nicely with the Jays. The obvious hole in ChiTown is 3B after this trade - they have a hotshot rookie who might take it over in Matt Shaw but he has 0 ML experience so I suspect they want a backup plan. Would you trade Clement as part of a package to get one of those 2 OF'ers? I'd consider it, but be very nervous about it too and only do it if I felt Vlad was going to take over 3B until some kids are ready (Orelvis, Barger, Wagner, whoever - each has their flaws but any might work).

I'm very curious how the Jays will proceed for the rest of the winter. I suspect they are debating a lot of things - 1 hitter and 1 starting pitcher is the goal. Teoscar, Santander both could be that hitter. Or they could do a trade with the Cubs (sounds like the Yankees might be after Bellinger though - desperate team with cash to waste) or with someone else (no idea who is open to trading a power hitting OF otherwise).

If both the Jays and Cubs fail to sign long term deals boy will next winter be interesting with Vlad and Tucker though eh?

"The issue with Gimenez, John, is that the WAR (which is a terrible way to grade players) is tied almost entirely up in defense... and it's empty offence on a team desperate for offence."

Marc, I really honestly do not understand the logic of your argument about how good defense is not a good measure of a player's value when you need better offense. I happen to think that my salary should be a lot higher, but you know what, I still appreciate a lower deductible on my benefits that save me money when I go to the doctor. It makes me richer in a different way. (Can you tell I live the States?)
And more offense may still come from different trades/signings.)

Since 2020, according to fangraphs, Gimenez is #9 in baseball in defensive value and #17 in baserunning value. I'd love for him to bounce back to be a decent hitter again but even as a poor hitter, he's a valuable player.

Glevin - depends on your sort/filter. With just 1 IP required I got Kirk as #9 in their Defensive value, Gimenez #18. For the top 11, 9 are catchers, other 2 SS. Gimenez the top 2B, by a 2 over Semien despite Semien having 1000+ more innings.

Go by DRS and you get Varsho at 83 for the OF, Kiermaier #2 at 53 (!!!!). For single positions (Varsho screwed over due to so much mix/match CF/LF) and Giménez is #2 at 58 behind Ke'Bryan Hayes at 3B (75). Semien #6, Chapman #10, Varsho in CF is #12, Kirk #17, Moreno #24, Varsho in LF #29.

OAA has Giménez #4 with 50, Kiermaier #11, Varsho in CF #30 (has 49 overall in the OF which would be 5th overall just behind Gimenez). Basically the only way to make the Jays defense more insane now would be to add Dansby Swanson at SS and Ke'Bryan Hayes at 3B. Uh oh, hopefully I didn't just put that into the air and now Atkins will do that. Swanson would be sweet but Hayes bat has gone missing (if it ever existed).

Me i love me some angry Marc Hulet.

The issue with Gimenez is that he's going to be making over 23M a year for 27 to 29.
You can't fill a roster with while paying everybody that much.
Horwitz was making the minimum, that's his real value.
Varsho will be making less than 8M.

This team desperately need to find a cheap starter or two.

Gimenez is in the 100th percentile for range.
62th for arm speed which might be why he's not playing shortstop.
7th for bat speed. 6th for chase rate, 5th for walk rate.

Going into this offseason most people identified the Jay's needs as 1) More power/ adding a couple of bats to the lineup 2) relief pitching as the bullpen blew a bunch of games and spoiled some games where the starters pitched well 3) another starting pitcher.

Nobody is saying that Gimenez is not a good player but it seems that for the second year in a row Atkins is doubling down on defense when there are greater needs elsewhere. As Scott has pointed out, Giminez will be taking up a lot of the supposed money available for free agents, players that are needed for left field or a starting pitcher position.

At this point I have no idea what Atkin/Shapiro have as a plan. Sign one more name free agent then go dumpster diving for the rest of the winter? Hope the team can win a bunch of 1-0 and 2-1 games next season with brilliant defense and little offense? Hope that Springer, Varsho and Bichette will better their 2024 batting totals and that will improve the offense?

I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic. There's a lot of time left before spring to improve the team but right now it's a mess.

Agreed Island Boy and, more to the point, the acquisition of Gimenez was an inefficient use of scare resources (players/prospects and payroll room). Gimenez is a good player but plays a position that they got something approximating league average production from last year and I think they would have gotten something like league average production from next year from the existing resources (Wagner, Clement, Jimenez). They blew a chunk of their player/prospect and payroll resources for a marginal improvement at 2B when there are much bigger holes on the roster to fill. Now, as I said the other day, if this is effectively acknowledging a need to fill the SS position for the next few years then there may be a way to see the sense in this.

Yes in a vacuum, Gimenez is a very good ball player. He's not what the Jays needed at this price point and % of the team's budget for three of the next five years when he's earning $23M. I'm fine with him at upwards of $10-$12M.

I also don't believe they have a realistic path to being competitive over the next couple of years.

There are too many roster holes and New York, Boston, and Baltimore are much better positioned in terms of their big league rosters, depth, ability to develop and identify talent, etc.

Maybe the Jays are rebuilding but not telling anyone.

The last rebuild started right after the 2018 trade deadline. Players like D Jansen and R McGuire were promoted while R Martin sat and maybe helped out the 2 rookie Cs. Stroman was traded at the 2019 deadline but he had a bad 2018 so maybe they wanted his value to increase. That was a good fast rebuild resulting in 4 good years. I don't know their post 2018 trade deadline record to the end of 2018 and how it compares to the post 2024 deadline record.

Signing Bournes would be a strong signal that 2025 is not a rebuild. Also signing Gimenez and still having a strong rotation says that the want a better record for 2025 than 2019. They did improve the pen for 2025.

They had more money to spend after 2019 which they used on good FAs. They don't have any money now. This means money under the luxury cap.

They are not rebuilding. Shapiro and Atkins have been clear that "the core needs to be added to."The Giminez deal represents what they've been doing basically since they took over, especially with a team they expect to contend. Adding flexibility, raising the floor, emphasizing run prevention while taking on a bit of salary. They've been equally middle of the road in trading prospects. 
My quarrel all along has been their strict adherence to valuations and only going over their limit for a very small number of players. At a certain point, if you're a big market, you have to risk more. It's clear the core they built even with good health and decent production isn't good enough....glad they've figured that out a year too late. Now it's time to make damn sure a couple big free agents take their money this time, and make that more risky trade or they will have completely wasted what 3-4 years ago looked a golden age of Jays baseball. 

J Springs from TB to Oakland for 3 players. Prospect Will Simpson looks like he can hit.

Saying the Jays prioritize defense I don't think is accurate. They prioritize value and are finding it in defense right now. For example, Gimenez is a much better player than Santander. Younger, more value, more important position. Santander is going to get paid way more than Gimenez makes and will be much less valuable. Also, the idea that 2B wasn't a concern because they managed to be OK last year doesn't make sense. They would be projected to be a bottom team at 2B this year and will now projected to be a top team. I get the Gimenez criticism is it stops the Jays from adding elsewhere.

The legitimate criticism IMO is about overall team direction. What's the plan here? Last year I thought the plan was weak but I understood it. This year, the plan seems to be "save our jobs no matter what".

I think the plan is to not make statements or have any particular "direction." They try and make the team better based on the resources they have, and their own systems, evaluations, and management style. That's it. That's the plan. So far, this has not borne enough fruit both in the minors or the major league squad. Couple that with their failure to read free agent markets, poor communication style, tone deafness, and general "read a room" factor has them backed into a corner both in the standings and with the fan base. As I said, a rebuild or retool or whatever want to call it, isn't happening. The time to be uber-aggressive and make moves is now or never. 

Agreed that their plan doesn't have a specific direction, it's just trying to get the best talent they can within their available resources. This is definitely not a subtle rebuild like 2018 was. They knew 2018 was going to be bad but they couldn't rebuild, so they just signed or traded for placeholders that they could move when things predictably failed. I don't think Gimenez qualifies as that type of pickup. It has the same premise as the Varsho trade.

The 2023 team with Vlad as a 5 WAR player would have been hosting playoff games. Instead he was a 1 WAR player and they backed into the last playoff spot. I think the FO truly believes that the 2023 model was the correct one and are trying to recreate it, except with the expectation that Vlad and Bo are both elite players in their contract years. I guess it depends on how they fill the edges of the roster. Gimenez may not be the conventional looking "high ceiling" player, but he actually qualifies given his history. They need a few more of those types of moves. Corbin Burnes at the top of the rotation wouldn't hurt either, but I suspect that's a pipe dream.

One thing to remember about any plan they may or may not have and if they have or should have changed it is that in their minds, they have done a very very good job with this team over their tenure.

I think it's too early to say they've done a very very good job. I think the team has to make the playoffs in '25 to keep that assessment alive. If they don't, Atkins is gone and maybe Shapiro is too. Then it's fair to do an autopsy. If the make the playoffs this year they've probably got themselves another contract, especially if the team actually does some damage in October. So the only grand statement that's been made is that this is a massive off-season for this regime and this franchise. That's why I've said I believe there will be unprecedented spending and an aggressive trade or two this off-season, as there should be. I don't think it's a matter of Ed Rogers not giving these guys the money, either. Ed probably doesn't want to make a change, and there's enough of a track record under these guys that one could reasonably assume that with some more cash, they'd be able to get the team back into contention next year, pay Vlad and perhaps Bo, and start another good run.

Oh i don't agree with them, but they definitely believe they've done a good job.

Yes, sorry ugly. My reading comprehension was bad there.

Agreed, SK. Had Vlad played like an MVP or close in '22 and '23 we're probably not having a conversation like this today. The team wins 3-4 more games in the regular season, probably grabs the second wildcard spot and probably makes a deeper playoff run. There's even a pretty wide gulf between going down in a hard fought 3 game wildcard series or a 4-5 game ALDS than having been swept both times like the Jays have.
I think the Corbin Burnes decision is pretty seismic. It will boost the attractiveness of the Jays in free agency, especially this year, and maybe they get the lineup holes filled in better just by having caught a big fish. On the field, having a bona fide ace certainly helps the bullpen situation too, not as many innings are needed from middle/late relief when Burnes is carving up lineups every five days. It rejuvanates the fan base, it proves Shapiro/Atkins can get the big fish. It ruins a lot of the haters narrative.

Carlos Baerga says Vlad turned down a $340M offer last month and says Vlad is looking for a $500M deal.

$340 M seems low now but last month before big signings was reasonable. $500M is insane for him right now. If he has another 165 WRC+ sort of season, maybe one team will give it to him but I remain skeptical. If he can meet in the middle, then get it done. Like 13/$450 or something.

15 year deal for Vladdy? Might get him in the mid-$400s.

I saw something from a more reliable source yesterday or the day before that said Jays offered $350/10 and he asked for $450/10.

So what would be ideal now? We really have no idea what the Jays budget is - it seems very variable depending on opportunity so I'm going to guess they can go to the edge of the 2nd tier if they want/need to. So using Cot's to get a base and room left...

• 1st Tier: $23.7 mil left: can add 1 player (say, Teoscar) and be around it.
• 2nd Tier: $43.7 mil left: can add 1 star and 1 meh. So 8/$250 = $31.25 per and that appears to be the current bid, leaving $12.5 mil roughly, enough to get 2 middle of the road relievers or 1 closer.
• 3rd Tier: $63.7 mil left: very unlikely they go there, but if they could then Burnes & Teoscar are possible plus some more relief help.

So not as nightmarish as it could be, but not as good as we'd like. Gimenez having a lower raw $ salary this year helps, as does Springer, but Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Bo, and Yariel Rodriguez all get paid more in $ than the CBT figure which hurts. The whole thing is complicated. But I figure we can safely estimate the Jays have $20-40 mil available right now for the right players. No Burnes or Teoscar or Santander then no going up there unless via a trade. An ideal trade would send Springer away while bringing in someone of similar payroll size who can perform (probably sending a prospect away to help compensate the other team in the process).

Let's do some highly scientific back of the envelope calculations. From Wikipedia:

“Alex Rodriguez signed two record-breaking contracts over the course of his career. First, he signed a $252 million, 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers n December 2000 ($445,857,391 inflation-adjusted from 2000 dollars).”

That’s about 45 million per year over 10 years. So he was willing to sign a contract roughly equivalent to what Guerrero is looking at now (though he did negotiate an even bigger salary later). Rodriguez is clearly a better player than Guerrero given their relative defense.

How much have times changed? Soto is making 51million per year over 15 years. The value will depreciate with inflation, so effectively a bit less money than a 10 year contract because it will depreciate five more years. If you might say that Rodriguez is in the same tier of talent as Rodriguez, it’s not quite as big a jump in average value  as I would have expected.

Guerrero is worth a lot, but if he is asking for $450m over 10 I think he’d be lucky to get it. What we don’t know, is if this is a serious bargaining position with room to move, or whether he’s dug his heels in. In the latter case, I would expect him to be traded

How hold would it be to trade Vlad and Bo,l for immediate help and top prospects and then use the 50 million you save (minus the returning players salary) plus the available budget left to go sign Burnes and Teoscar and Pederson and a RP? You probably have enough money to do that ifnyou trade your two core players.

Mobile user here...apologies for typos.

Does anyone know of any media folks with Jays content who 1. Are not toxic or 2. Don't work for Rogers? I really enjoy a good podcast when I can find it.

I tried listening to Mike Wilner and Gregor Chisholm and my god are they awful...basically just bashing the front office non stop while suggesting ridiculous takes. One of their major points was that Gimenez is a terrible acquisition because of his salary but in the same breath they say you have to overpay for Vlad to get him signed...to a high salary that lowers his value like Gimenez? No sanity only complaining. Wilner especially used to always defend the front office but now that he doesn't work for them he's taking shots with outlandish takes "they should have signed Vlad 2 years ago for 280 million." Between all of that and them concluding the Jays screwed up with Romano because Dave Dombrowski signed him to be the closer and Dave Dombrowski is a WS winner ... I was cringing. After bashing Gimenez they advocate to sign Yoan Moncada and that's when I shut it off.

The best I have found is Richard Griffin and his new podcast partner. Critical but fair takes with healthy doses of optimism. For anyone that wants to hear how terrible, cheap, out of touch, condescending and useless this front office is...give Wilner's latest episode a listen where he refers and features Gregor Chisholm. It's also baffling that he has to refer to Chisholm as the resident "expert" probably because he's been at The Star longer (its a Toronto Star owned podcast). Gregor (Chisholm) you can actually hear him laughing multiple times as the jokes that Wilner makes about the front office. To reference an Adam Sandler film..."What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

Good one dalimon5. I did get a good laugh. Thanks.

Any recommendations for other podcasts? BNS and Arden Zwelling are pretty good, but they are owned by Rogers so that removes them from eligibility.

I generally enjoy Wilner's podcasts (he gets solid guests regularly) but boy does he have a strong rage towards the current front office. Sometimes I wonder if they ran over his dog or if he holds them responsible for him being fired.

Griffin I used to think of as a hack back in the day - someone whose articles tended to be so negative that I just stopped reading them. I'll give his podcast a shot though based on your recommendation (doesn't cost anything so why not?). Used to listen to 'Jays Talk' on the podcast format but that is for people desperate for any Jays content imo, really weak - just the radio post-game show pretty much.

Oakland is definitely trying to improve if not compete for a playoff spot. SPs Sears, Spence and Estes did OK in 2024. They have added L Severino and J Springs. The 6th SP is Hoglund after a bit more AAA experience. I think they will improve in 2025.

Weird winter - A's trying to improve (have to have a $100+ million payroll or lose revenue sharing). Just 3 FA hitters getting 3+ years so far (Soto, Adames, and O'Neill) vs 7 FA pitchers getting 3+ years (Fried, Snell, Kikuchi, Wacha, Eovaldi, Severino, and Holmes). Very odd given historically teams prefer shorter terms for pitchers as they are so insanely variable.

Nick Raposo DFA'd.

John,

Seems like our tastes align. I followed Richard Griffin a long time ago then stopped reading due to his negativity as well. Not sure what changed with him but his take on the Gimenez deal is positive. Exit Philosophy was the one I heard.

Used to listen to 'Jays Talk' on the podcast format but that is for people desperate for any Jays content imo, really weak - just the radio post-game show pretty much.

Does Jays Talk even take live callers anymore?

I listened to it postgame a few years back and it seemed to be only fans texting in not takes to an intern who couldn't get off the air fast enough.

To me #1 is maximize potential for the team. What has a player done, and what are they expected to do? Using fWAR their highest and lowest over 100+ games in the 20's and 2025 projection

• C-Kirk: 4.3 to 2.3, proj 4.0-4.1
• 1B-Vlad: 6.3 to 1.3, proj 5.0-5.2
• 2B-Giménez: 6.1 to 2.8 proj 3.0-3.1
• 3B-Clement: 2.2 (just 1 year) proj 1.6-1.7
• SS-Bo: 4.9-3.9, proj 3.4-3.6 (just 81 games last year)
• LF-Loperfido: NA, proj 0.1-0.2 (yikes)
• CF-Varsho: 4.4-2.1, proj 2.8-2.9
• RF-Springer: 4.1-1.2, proj 1.8-1.9
• DH-Wagner: NA, proj 0.9; Schneider: 0.4 proj 0.7-0.8

Well, the holes are pretty damn obvious LF, DH and 3B. Peak potential is 32.3 (using everyone's best 2020's season), projection 22.1-23.6, bottom 15.8 (worst 2020's full season).

So what does that mean? That we have a hitter roster than has a potential 16.5 win difference when they play healthy over the past 4 years (dumb luck on health and the like). Last year the best team in MLB had 33.8 fWAR from its hitters (Arizona & LAD) Yankees had 33.7, all others sub 30. 8 teams were lower than the worst case for the Jays everyday lineup (if they all play 100+ games) - the White Sox were negative, with 5 more teams sub 10 fWAR from their hitters. So yeah, things could be a heck of a lot worse. One of those teams was Pittsburgh who traded with the Jays to try to sneak into the playoffs (IKF for McAdoo) - yikes. So the Jays have 2-3 obvious problems, Clement mixed with kids might cover 3B (Barger, Orelvis, etc.), same in LF and DH (Schneider, Loperfido, Clase, Roden, etc.). But like all of you I'd like the Jays to get a vet to cover at least one of those 3 slots. Pederson looking better by the day with the budget issues and his being LH to mix with Schneider, or you go for a guy like Profar who is a switch hitter and can just go out there or be split with any kid. At the moment (with no more signings) I'd expect a Loperfido/Schneider combo in LF or Lukes/Schneider. The RH half of a platoon gets very few PA generally (30-40 starts a year vs LHP) and Schneider could cover DH/2B as needed then.

Yeah, the more I look the more I fear pitching - we all know the nightmare the pen was (dead last in fWAR for the pen at -2.5, only the Rockies were negative as well last year). The starters at 10.6 fWAR were 17th, but outside of adding a star (Burnes) it is hard to see the Jays making any big improvements - yeah, I'd love Sasaki but I can't imagine he'll sign here. Jack Flaherty, the more I look the more I like but his injury issues over the years concerns me (in the '20's he only reached 150 IP once, last year). However, he is entering his age 29 season, thus still at peak, so if he is signing for a reasonable rate then he'd be a solid choice as I expect Burnes to go to SF. Manaea is more what the Jays seem to like lately - a guy who gives you 100+ every year, 150+ 3 of the past 4 years.

It'll be interesting to watch how the Jays handle it now that the biggest gun is gone and the last big gun is still in their sights but might go for less cash to be where he wants to live.

Does anyone know of any media folks with Jays content who 1. Are not toxic or 2. Don't work for Rogers? I really enjoy a good podcast when I can find it.

I can't vouch for either podcast because I haven't listened in a longtime.

But the two independent podcasts I remember are:

Andrew Stoeten - Tall Can Audio

The Walk Off Podcast

Old hat bauxites will remember Stoeten from the JP Ricciardi days and the old raunchy Drunk Jays Fans blog.

I could see some considering him toxic though I haven't followed him in a longtime. He was hired & fired by The Score a decade ago, went independent a few times. He also rumouredly was let go from The Athletic for interviewing Stephen Brunt while intoxicated.

I find Wilner usually insufferable even if I agree with him. Treating everyone like an idiot and like he has some unique insight. The lesson of social media is that anger drives interaction more than anything else so outrage is a default attempt and getting traffic. Of course, nobody beats Simmons for the stupidest takes. Here's his latest one

"Anthopoulos signed Acuna Jr for $17 million a year. Mets paid $51 million a year for Juan Soto. Acuna Jr is the better player.
Imagine what Anthopoulos would have done had he stayed with Blue Jays?"

Yes, seriously. Not satire.

Wilner thinking that he was smarter than the fans he tried so hard to condescend to was always worth a laugh.

And that’s pretty rich if he's turned jays critic now after being a lifelong defender against those silly irrational fans.

Dalimon, to answer your q above. I think what changed for Griffin was being employed by the club. He gives little insights here and there in the podcast about how the Jays are run and I think it shifted his perspective towards being more balanced.

Otherwise, I’m agreed on your takes about the podcasts. I tend to listen anyway and just yell at the radio, since I’m desperate for the content and it’s all we get :)

AA would have pouted because he would have a reduced level of autonomy. Any other take ignores the history of his departure. Is he a better GM than what the Jays have? Maybe, but it was a corporate decision to reconfigure baseball OPs, which seemed needed in June 2015, given AA and the FO configuration from the 90s.

I mean the big issue with Simmons there is comparing contracts of a free agent and an extension of someone in pre-arbitration. It's ludicrous. Why not, Yankees are paying Rodon $27M and Bowden Francis isn't even making $1M a year. Atkins genius confirmed!

Excellent point christaylor - in mid-2015 when the decision was made the Jays had 5 1/2 years of losing. In AA's years they were 4th 3 times, 5th once, and 3rd once, 10+ games out of 1st each year and never sniffing the playoffs. The 85 wins year one were the highest pre-2015. Shapiro was officially hired August 30th, but the Jays made it public they were hunting for a new president in January 2015, and a month before Shapiro took over the Jays were 52-51 6 games out of the AL East lead, only 2 games out of the playoffs but really, given the previous 20 years no one felt confident until all those trades happened. On July 28th they were sub 500 (50-51). By the time Shapiro officially was named president to be (taking over at the end of October) the Jays charged into 1st and were up 1 1/2 games. Still, it made a ton of sense at that stage to still be looking at replacing the old guy (Beeston) and look at replacing his kid GM (AA) as going into 2015 the team had disappointed, the farm was ranked #10 (good), but looking back the guys who made the BA top 100 were Daniel Norris (meh - 1 year over 2 WAR, 2 over 1 WAR vs 3 negative years), Aaron Sanchez (good but wasn't as good as hoped, 1 great year, 2 solid, 3 negative but best 2 were perfectly timed in 15/16), Dalton Pompey (flop), and Jeff Hoffman (flop - just 1.5 bWAR pre-2024).

We all loved AA at the time due to his surprising trades, and the fact he was Canadian too. Fun having a GM who could shock you at any time. Now he took over a team in Atlanta with tons of talent and did smart signings quickly with kids (picked the right ones) and has done a lot of very good trades. Is he perfect? No. When he left the only top 100 guy here was Anthony Alford (flop) but Vlad was in the system (16 years old). Atlanta pre-2024 had just 2 top 100 prospects, same as the Jays. So that area is still an issue for him. Yeah, I'd rather AA than Atkins, but no one can say for sure what would've happened if AA stayed. Would Bo have been drafted and signed in 2016? Would the Jays have made 3 out of 5 playoffs in the 20's? Impossible to know.

Andrew Stoeten - Tall Can Audio


Stoeten's sometimes a guest on Tall Can Audio, but his regular podcast is Blue Jays Happy Hour (co-hosted with Nick Ashbourne). That's a pretty good one for those looking for podcast content.

I find Stoeten very hard to hear because he mumbles a bunch. His co-host Nick Ashbourne is no bueno in my humble opinion...lots of babbling about grammar and self indulgence and deprecation. To be honest I already listen to everything and know the field well and I want more!

Blair and Barker - follows sensationalist approach but their guests are the best in the biz. Professional.

Bob McCown - just retired but I liked his takes both positive and negative and love how he called out anyone, in particular Simmons recently. Professional.

At the Letters - BNS and Arden Zwelling. Very measured approach, BNS is especially good but no guests and they can't go to far in criticism as owned by Rogers. Professional.

Gate 14 - kids podcast. Lots of swearing. Two gentlemen, former baseball pros, give unique perspective and they are friends with half the Blue Jays players. One of the hosts, Avery is very good while the other so so. They have very fair takes. Sometimes they speak about their weekend personal lives but their baseball insights are good. For example, they reached out to friends to get the inside scoop about Trey Yeasavage dropping in the draft due to his rib injury. They have the most Blue Jays players interviews which ironically I don't listen to. Amateur.

Deep Left Field Mike Wilner - the worst, see my notes ip( or down) thread. He gets lots of players to interview but I don't like listening to the player interviews. Other than that it's mostly him referring to special guest Gregor Chisholm and himself reading 5 star fan reviews on the air while soliciting subscriptions and counting each milestone (he still highlights every single episode number - today is our two hundred and sixty-seventh episode..." Professional.

Exit Philosophy - this one was weak as it featured Richard Griffin and his co host Scott McArthur who HATED the front office to the point where it killed the content...Now he is replaced by a new co host who used to work for the Blue Jays yet is highly critical of them (Sal something). It is probably in my top three now with Gate 14 and the Walkoff. Only bad part is the end when they feature NFL picks. Professional.

The Walkoff - this podcast is an amateur one but a bit of a gem. Run by teo stand up comics they are easy listening and have a balanced approach. Sometimes its only one of the two hosts along with guests and thats when the quality drops some. Amateur.

Happy Hour - Stoetens pod the worst imho

Less Than Jays - this was my favourite but they stopped producing out of frustration with the players (not the front office) I think.

Maybe he saw how Vlad improved after cutting his hair, or maybe he just wanted a new look, but Bo Bichette has trimmed his flowing locks.

Does anyone know if we were under the cap? Razor thin means maybe not yes/no.

Now, Bo's hair is under the cap at least.

So is that it until January?

Christmas on a Wednesday has given the holidays a strange look. Not sure how it's impacting GMs and Agents. But my Sunday morning skate isn't missing a beat through the holidays. I'm unsure what days to take off work. Kid's off school forever.

So what about Bo. Should we get a double signing in the stocking? It seems the lack of talk about him means he's leaving in July??

Bo's value depends on what he does in 25.
He was worth nothing last year.
All his value is in his offense and he has knee issues.
He's not the kind of guy who will age, walk more and add power.
His unique swing depends on perfect timing and his bat speed can only go down.

There was nothing ludicrous about Simmons' "comparison". It was a piece centered around the idea that AA has had success extending his young talent at team-friendly prices, while Shapiro has done absolutely nothing of the sort and is left paying more than anyone else is willing to offer for FAs. It was a good piece that resonated well with many Jays fans and season ticket holders that are wondering what the heck the long-term plan is here.

There was nothing ludicrous about Simmons' "comparison". It was a piece centered around the idea that AA has had success extending his young talent at team-friendly prices, while Shapiro has done absolutely nothing of the sort and is left paying more than anyone else is willing to offer for FAs."

Everything about the piece was dumb. Extensions are two way streets. Acuna was willing to sign one because he had a signing bonus of $100K. He was willing to give up future value to have money today. Vlad had a $4 million signing bonus and is the son of someone who made tens of millions of dollars. The idea that AA would have signed him is based on pure fantasy. Comparing the Acuna signing to Soto signing which Simmons did is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen someone who professes to have baseball knowledge ever write but if there are contenders, they are probably like 90% other Steve Simmons takes. I get people love outrage hate, but this isn't serious stuff.

Also, I agree the front office has no long term plan and it's a huge problem and part of the reason why Atkins should have been replaced IMO after 2023 (communication issues as well) but AA had no long-term vision either. This was a team that was always going to collapse either in 2016 or 2017. What was the plan? Keep trading every asset to try to put that off for another year? There is nothing he or anyone could have done to avoid that. AA is a good GM (and better now than he was here) but people pretend he was some magician aren't being serious.

come on guys AA would have executed a far more effective tear down and rebuild when the time came. deep down inside you all know it.

Perhaps it is not Shapiro vs AA as people propose but AA vs Atkins only. Honestly, AA as GM and Shapiro as President would be an ideal so long as Shapiro was hands off. It's like having things the way they were before except replacing Beeston with Shapiro. You get the stadium renovation, payroll increases, etc while having AA run the team.

come on guys AA would have executed a far more effective tear down and rebuild when the time. "

No and this is just more of this AA was magic nonsense. Atkins did an amazing job on the rebuild. 2017 deadline started the rebuild and by 2020, Jays were a good young team and by 2021, it looked like they were going to contend for years. Teoscar for nothing, Lourdes for very little, Bo, Manoah, and Kirk and Cavan all up quickly through the system. To have only 3 down years (and not White Sox sort of down) despite almost no assets to trade and a weak system that produced next to no talent for years was as good as can be expected. This front office should have been replaced post 2023 IMO but pretending it didn't do a very good job at that point is just silly. People don't like them so they focus on the negative even if the positive is much stronger.

Kind of hoping, wishful thinking that the Jays sign both Bo & Vlad.

[FanGraphs] Blue Jays RHP Hagen Danner (26) and IF Leo Jimenez (23) have been awarded extra option years.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/new/

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/blue-jays

I’m with you Glevin.

These are angry times and people everywhere seem to prefer focussing on the negative. The response is nostalgia, which never paints an accurate picture of how the past truly was, but our favourite parts of it. It’s human nature.

As another example, I’ve always been surprised more people aren’t upset that they didn’t trade for Zobrist, who would have been a massive upgrade over Goins.

The story that mendocino posted says that Danner and Jimenez have been awarded extra option years. I wonder if that should say the Blue Jays have been awarded extra option years on those players. Is it a good thing for the players?

If they were not awarded an extra option year they would be kept on the major league team, and make the big dollars, or be placed on waivers where another team would pick them up and maybe keep them in the major leagues.

If I was a player would I want an extra option year? If you are major league ready, like Jimenez more than Danner, then the extra option year seems like a negative to me.

Thanks mendocino for this info. Good news to me. Also Gerry makes a good point from the player's POV.

IMO the Jays cannot say "we will not compete in 2025" bad PR. CWS probably also would not sat that but their actions definitely say that. Especially compared to Oakland's actions. Jays added Y Garcia and A Gimenez which proves they want to compete. The Jays may not be finished their off season activities yet. I strongly expect that both Bo & Vlad will be extended. Gimenez, Bo & Vlad are all young right now. Vlad at 3B with the other 2 playing 2B & SS should be a strong IF IMO.

but I do miss the ones he used to do with Drew Fairservice back in the day...

I tried to find if Drew was still active somewhere, but it seemed his last podcast ended in 2022 around the time The Athletic made cuts.

Well, that is good news for the Jays. Now Jimenez doesn't need to be rotting on the bench all season, nor does Danner need to be the 8th man in the pen (or on the IL with phantom injuries). If they earn the job, great, if not then they can be sent down. Opens up more options for the infield.

Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement with space now for whoever fits. Wagner, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, or a NRI who earns that backup slot (such as Michael Stefanic, a 2B/3B the Jays gave an invite to, safe to say there will be more of those as spring approaches).

I didn't see Danner making the pen unless he had a great spring so this is very good news from an asset hold POV. Right now the pen is Green-Garcia-Swanson-Sandlin-Burr-Little-Pop-lord knows (FG has Tommy Nance listed as a placeholder). The IL has Angel Bastardo and Alek Manoah on it, with the 40 man having Hagen Danner, Nick Robertson (final option), Brandon Eisert, Brett de Geus, Easton Lucas, and Michael Petersen. NRI is Kevin Gowdy. Rotation is set in stone unless they sign someone with Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Francis-Rodriguez with Adam Macko & Jake Bloss the backups in AAA on the 40 man. Eric Lauer the only starter NRI so far, but safe to say Trey Yesavage will get a few innings in spring just so the big staff can see what he has. Tiedemann is injured (shocking I know).

BA Top 50 International Prospects
11. Cristopher Polanco, SS, DR Jan. 3, 2008 L-R 5-11 180 Blue Jays
44. Juan Sanchez, SS, DR Sept. 27, 2007 R-R 6-3 200 Blue Jays

Our depth is very strong IMO.

Yariel Rodriguez was signed Feb 9,2024. I expect signings after Jan 15/24 obviously. Beside Y Rodriguez we usually get a few nonteenage Cubans and sometimes a Brazilian pitcher. Sann Omasaka and Hecheveria both in the FCL this year. Sorry about spelling but I can't find the DSL & FCL rosters.

Reports say Bellinger is headed to the Yankees.

Bellinger goes for Cody Peteet, a 30 year old pitcher. Cubs send $5M to the Yankees. Its basically a salary dump by the Cubs and the Yankees get a centre fielder so Judge can go back to right.

Other rumours are Jesus Luzardo to the Cubs and Teoscar and LAD finalizing a deal.

Post Soto Saga -

NYY - Sign Max Fried, acquire Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, improve @ high cost
BOS - trade for Garret Crochet and improve pitching, weaken farm, save $$$
TOR - trade for A. Gimenez and improve defense, weaken offense
BAL - sign Japanese pitcher Sugano to 1 year deal, get worse
TB - trade solid SP and get worse, save $$$

What an incredible rebuild with 0 playoff wins.

Heyman says the Jays were in on Bellinger, too, so they struck out again.

But probably for the best... much better ways to spend $55M (you know, like Teoscar).

However, I get why this org wanted him: plays multiple positions, has a reputation for good defense, and isn't a very good hitter. An Atkins dream...

Didn't really want bellinger. I think he'll do well in NY because of the short porch but he's really an above average player with a huge contract. It feels like a teoscar and Burnes both want to sign elsewhere and are waiting for those teams to give better offers. I am happy Jays are exploring trades at least. Still feel like apart from Burnes/Bregman, that's probably the way to go.

"No and this is just more of this AA was magic nonsense. Atkins did an amazing job on the rebuild."

I'm impressed that you not only actually said this with a straight face, but you even condescended while doing it.

well done.

I would have really liked that Bellinger deal for the Jays if he was willing to play all three outfield spots. He's in his prime and does have a high ceiling at the plate. I think he will do well in Yankee Stadium.

They must be pretty certain either Teoscar or Santander take their money, because the options are starting to thin out. I can't bring myself to believe Max Kepler is the answer, especially given his injury history.

The problem the AA people have with the retroactive stuff is they can't ever possibly show how it was possible to do anything they claim AA would have done. I asked repeatedly to show how the Jays could possibly have built a winning team for 2017/2018 and nobody replied because it wasn't possible. It's not logical, it's literally just "AA would have done something magical and everything would have been better". The Jays rebuild was extremely fast and very good under Shapiro/Atkins. Look at how meany teams are terrible for years without becoming a contender.


I get being sick of this front office. I am at this point. I don't get this absurd hagiograohy of a GM from 10 years ago who took us to one playoff appearance in five years. Move on already or go follow the Braves instead. It's so ridiculous and so damn boring.

the problem with the anti-AA people is that we have lengthy careers for both Shapkins and AA now and the comparison isn't a close one.

Bellinger is a high risk/high reward case that the Yankees can take on due to the nightmare defense they had last year. Getting Judge out of CF had to be a top priority (-9 DRS last year in CF, +1 in RF, Varsho was +16 so there is 2 1/2 wins on defense between them, on offense obviously Judge slaughters pretty much anyone outside of Ohtani). Bellinger though has been a net negative on defense according to FG 3 of the past 4 years, -1 DRS last year in CF in just 403 innings. If you are playing a CF at 1B then odds are his defense is not that good. As a Jay he'd have been adequate in LF but for the Yankees I expect more ugly defense in CF. His 109 wRC+ last year is in line with projections for 2025 (110) but he has to be seen as one of the most variable players - last 3 years wRC+ 83-136-109, yikes.

So now what? The Burnes watch is getting annoying - pretty sure he is just using the Jays to up SF's offer. For offense I'm leaning towards Profar or Pederson - both have a lot of warts but each can be very useful at a much lower price than Teoscar or Santander while producing similar value (based on projections). Now, for pitching if you can't get Burnes, then Flaherty or Manaea (QO) both have obvious pluses and minuses but could be useful. Pivetta also worth digging into (great K/9, 140+ IP for 4 straight years, not wow but nice) despite a QO. I'd be 100% shocked if the Jays got that Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki.

The International prospects listed by BA going to the Jays, Cristopher Polanco (BA #11, MLB.com #22), Juan Sanchez (BA #44, MLB.com not top 50) are interesting. Appears the Dodgers aren't tied to anyone in the top 49, top guy is MLB #50 Telion Serrano. The Giants are tied to the #1 MLB.com (#4 BA) non-Japanese player (Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez) so expect teams to be ready to pounce if the Giants get lucky with Sasaki.

The IFA time is a very interesting one - for every Vlad there are dozens of flops at all price levels. Sometimes you get damn lucky and sign a Kirk or Moreno for next to nothing, sometimes you blow $1.4 mil on Eric Pardinho (that year the top bonus went to Wander Franco...seemed good for a long time didn't it?, another high bonus was paid by the Red Sox to Daniel Flores who never played as a pro from what I can tell, must have gotten hurt right away). Lots of other flops too. Must be damn hard as you have to commit to these guys at a very young age (often at 12-14 with promises, no cash until 16). Can't blame any club for saying 'screw it' and blowing their whole wad on Sasaki.

Allegedly the Jays have only a limited amount of money left to fill several positions. Heymans report suggests the Jays were willing to pay a lot of Bellingers salary.

So one of two things are likely true:

- The Jays have more money to spend than what was reported

- Heyman is wrong

Who knows?

As a follow up......Many reporters have said that the Jays front office is desperate. Therefore agents know that if they say the Jays are bidding on a free agent, other front offices will believe them. So expect to see more reports of Jays interested in various free agents but don't believe all of them.

Literally no one is anti-AA. To allege that is a pure strawman, ugly. All Glevin is saying, and I agree, is that Atkins did a great job early on. Since 2022 things have been rocky, and I think we’re all ready for this team to take more risk for upside instead of focussing on perpetually raising the floor.

It's not a fair comparison at all.AA's 2010 rebuild was a complete failure. Very similar to what Detroit has done, actually,
The 2015 team was competitive for 2 months and managed to win the division because the other teams were rebuilding.
Atkins could have sold the farm, the way AA did in 2015 and they would have had a fantastic playoff team.
Instead they chose to remain competitive year after year.

The biggest issue has been the lack of left bats in the lineup.
That was also an issue in 2015.
The lineup has been like a one handed boxer for  a decade now.

AA's teams were not worth a trip to Toronto.

Probably 
Volpe
Chrisholm
Judge
Bellinger
Stanton

Santander isn't a top 25 bat, but Belinger isn't a top 60 bat.
That's a big drop from Soto. The defense isn't fantastic and they are still a Judge injury away from sucking.
Jasson Dominguez could produce big at the bottom of the lineup. Who knows.

MLB has release a 62-page study on pitching injuries.
Contributing factors; chasing velo and spin, exerting max effort  both in-game and off the field.
The league is concerned with what the pitchers do in the winter.
Sweepers and weighted balls were pointed at.
Nothing Bassitt hasn't said many times.

I am not big on AA, but he did what he could with the budget he had.

One thing with AA vs Atkins... the former has continued to learn/grow as a GM. The latter has been fairly stagnant in his development as a GM.

I don't think there is a team president in baseball (ok maybe one) that would hire Atkins over AA now...

Pretty much every poster in this thread is right imho except Ugly regarding AA. AA was a good GM with either flaws or extremely limiting boss/budget or both and to me his tenure was mostly mediocre until he got fired and then dropped the mic on his way out in style. Since then he has worked alongside Andrew Friedman and then inherited a great farm and team in Atlanta and now he is probably a top 3 GM in baseball which Atkins is not. Pretending post Blue Jays AA is the same as the AA we had is silly and only one poster still promotes this on these boards. Its reasonable to compare "Toronto Alex" to Atkins and come to the conclusion that the latter did a better job. I agree the toxicity has erupted in Toronto and is directed squarely at Atkins. I believe it's because of social media in large part as every critic has a voice (and numbers to prove their point now which was never the case before. Bashing this FO sells views and traffic unfortunately and I expect to see and hear more of it.

come now. I'm right. was always right. This board F'd up on AA & needs to let it go.

I'm with uglyone and have been since the time AA left that AA is underappreciated, the degree of "sold the farm" is way overblown, and that AA was a very good GM even if only judged on Toronto time. I think he's shown he's even better now than when he left with a continued strong performance, but he was still very good just when in Toronto.

I also think the current front office is underappreciated, I thought they rated as above average but below AA when they joined and we lost AA. I think they've trended down a little through the tenure especially in recent years, but I still think they are probably above average (but it's much closer to average). Last year was definitely a strike against them, and things aren't looking as good right now, but they've done well (in general) on FA signings, and IMHO deserve another year to hopefully do better/get luckier in performance and health and see what the Jays have.

Put me down with Michael and Ugly on AA.

Ayjackson and Michael please re-read the posts by Glevin and Ugly... your responses seem out of context completely ... where did anybody say the things you are contending? Do you feel that the general consensus is that AA was under-appreciated or that everyone is complaining that he sold the farm? I'll copy/paste the comments below to show you what was actually written to trigger your responses...


Here is a quick recap if you want the context of the conversation which to me is valid argument by Glevin followed by low grade reddit trolling from Ugly:

Glevin:
"The problem the AA people have with the retroactive stuff is they can't ever possibly show how it was possible to do anything they claim AA would have done. I asked repeatedly to show how the Jays could possibly have built a winning team for 2017/2018 and nobody replied because it wasn't possible. It's not logical, it's literally just "AA would have done something magical and everything would have been better."

"I get being sick of this front office. I am at this point. I don't get this absurd hagiograohy of a GM from 10 years ago who took us to one playoff appearance in five years."

"Also, I agree the front office has no long term plan and it's a huge problem and part of the reason why Atkins should have been replaced IMO after 2023 (communication issues as well) but AA had no long-term vision either. This was a team that was always going to collapse either in 2016 or 2017. What was the plan? Keep trading every asset to try to put that off for another year? There is nothing he or anyone could have done to avoid that. AA is a good GM (and better now than he was here) but people pretend he was some magician aren't being serious."

Here are Ugly's responses, which I feel need to be highlighted for the troll-job it is:
"come on guys AA would have executed a far more effective tear down and rebuild when the time came. deep down inside you all know it."

"I'm impressed that you not only actually said this with a straight face, but you even condescended while doing it. Well done."

This all started because someone said AA didn't seem to have a long term vision which is why he was likely canned. This triggered Ugly to start trolling.


The best post in this thread which I will say imho applies to some of you was from 99BlueJaysWay:

"I’m with you Glevin.

These are angry times and people everywhere seem to prefer focussing on the negative. The response is nostalgia, which never paints an accurate picture of how the past truly was, but our favourite parts of it. It’s human nature."

I read the report on the increase in pitcher injuries. Very interesting.

Just extending Vlad Jr. would end so much of this angst, whereas letting him walk will be a public disaster for the franchise.

Oh I don't know - sign him to an extension, then he has a year or two of his 22/23 performance, and everyone will be proclaiming the contract a disaster for the franchise.

I don't think Gold Gloves sell tickets, at least not by themselves.

Individual performances of any sort don't really sell tickets, but defence does seem to sell merch - observe number of Kevin Pillar jerseys you still see around town, for example. "Daulton Varsho might do something unbelievable in the outfield" has probably been one of the most reliable selling points of the franchise for the past two years.

If you're right offer an argument
Right now according to ATL fan AA is sitting on his hands and they can't throw a winter fan event because of poor planning. See any post on the Athletic or a grounded Braves old timer on fansided.

The parallel counter to your post is "AA has failed up since he left the Jays. I'm right he couldn't even sign his fan favorite 1B."

Often it is those who just assert they are right without evidence are the most wrong and deluded.

I wouldn't mind a GM change, but Shapiro has done wonders with Rogers and the Done. The thing is, you get Shapiro or AA not both. That's just the history of 2015.

Right on Chris. Freddie Freeman and Max Fried both walked on AA's watch. He's still one of the best GMs in the game in most minds. That has zero effect on the job Atkins is doing in Toronto. This is the deal right now. RA did a good job rebuilding quickly and is now floundering. Can he bounce back with the odds seemingly stacked against him right now after two pitiful off seasons? AA did mediocre in Toronto for most of his tenure then amazing at the end then just really good post Toronto.

Elias in BAL is now facing a lot of heat.

If only Atkins could sign Teo, Santander and a rebound Starter and then trade from Loperfido, Barger, Jimenez for RP help...if only...

Blue Jays favourites to sign Burnes and Bregman!!! Wait, just a new Jim Bowden article...

The argument is too obvious to keep repeating.

AA inherited less, had fewer resources, built a better team more quickly, and left the team in better shape.

The biggest criticism of him whie here - that he didn't value prospects correctly - has turned out to be hilariously incorrect, as he valued them perfectly appropriately.

AA has gone on to repeat his effectiveness for a new team.

Otoh, Shapkins inherited more, had access to far more resources, took more time to build a worse team, and the current state of the franchise is teetering on the brink.

Their mediocrity here is not surprising, as it's just a repeat of their mediocrity in their previous gig (with that franchise being better under both their preceding and succeeding managements).

And the supposed best aspect about them - that they properly valued prospects and understood the importance of avoiding bloated contracts to old vets - has turned out to be hilariously incorrect.

It's not a close call.

It's just that folks around here got really, really invested in a process argument during AA's time here, in which they wanted us to be the Rays, and fell in love with a number of propsects and forgot that prospects mostly fail, while underappreciating the value of paying market price for elite talent.

Without taking anything away from AA I would like to give Snitker some credit. Thoughts?

AA had inherited a team that was 19th in rankings for farm system (BA), climbed to 10th in '15, but 22nd (BP) heading into '16 (he dumped most prospects in a desperate attempt to win in '15, only top 100 left was Anthony Alford (flop)). BA had Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace, and Travis d'Arnaud (all via the Halladay trade) as top 100's going into 2010. Basically AA had Halliday to trade to rebuild the system (didn't work as well as hoped), but when he left there was nothing left but Vlad (just signed at 16). The team was a contender, but had some ugly contracts to deal with (Tulo, Martin for example - but 10 guys making $10 mil+ when that wasn't as common).

To say AA left the Jays in good shape is ignoring bad contracts and a bad farm. Not to mention the 1 playoff appearance over his 5 years (thanks to dumping all prospects for help at the deadline).

AA was able to exploit the A/B free agent compensatory pick mechanism. Kudos to him for that. Atkins cannot do the same, so they aren't even playing on equal terms.

Ugly - are you claiming AA *KNEW* that Bautista and EE would break out? Because on the face of it, those two developments saved that season and/or his tenure and "legacy"..And EE only happened because Rolen wanted out, and we got lucky.

Without that, he goes nowhere - his drafting SUUUUUCKED - Deck McGuire in the first round?!? And his trades? Yeah, Dickey and J. Johnson really did wonders here. And we had to carry Josh Thole...

The latest rumors are entertaining at least - if the Jays are willing to go to near $300 mil (and if Shapiro can talk Rogers into that he is a genius). Burnes, Bregman, and Teoscar would really solidify the team but at a very high cost. Rumor I read today was Teo is about to sign for $66 mil over 3 years here (can't find it now, read on phone). Somehow I seriously doubt the Jays can go that far on budget, but damn would it be nice.

AA inherited an awful team with no prospects.

Atkins inherited an elite team with one of the best prospects in the world.

this is not a close comp.

Elite? Well, a team that was elite for 2+ months. Before that it was a 500 team. The farm had that elite prospect who was just starting out and as we've seen, signing a top prospect and developing him (especially from the age of 16) are 2 very different things. I think the current management team deserves some credit for not screwing up Vlad in the minors (rushing ala how JPR acted, or calling up for wasted service time like Ash did with Wells). A good reminder of how really bad GM's act.

Bautista and EE were JP Ricciardi anyways. Point is nobody has ever suggested most of the points Ugly is trying to address. He still hasn't responded to the sensible question or points of Glevin, instead just responding to other points inly he himself keeps bringing up. Nobody has suggested AA didn't know how to value prospects and nobody has advocated that he tried to run the team like the Rays. Where are you getting this stuff from? The posts are all saved on this thread and readily available for anyone to see. It's clear there is no correlation to your responses and arguments and any other post submitted.

You bring value and good points to the box but someone says "AA" and its like you hear "Shark" while swimming alone and become panicked and frightened with responses that should warrant a fact check feature on this site...

yes, when i hear nitpick criticisms of AA's stellar performance here it's hard not to stifle a laugh and a response.

And yes, this board was absolutely certain AA didn't know how to value prospects.

And no, I didn't say AA tried to run the team like the Rays, i said this board wanted the jays to be run like the Rays.

Fake Post 1:02PM

To be fair, the Rays moved from worst to first far faster than the Jays did, despite a much, much lower budget. Plus JPR & Interbrew conditioned us to expect a low payroll. Ideally you'd duplicate the Rays (especially in trades and player development) but have the cash to hold onto any stars you want or sign any extra pieces needed.

AA objectively did a poor job drafting. Drafted/Signed with 10+ WAR: Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Pillar, Joe Musgrove, Anthony DeSclafani , Marcus Stroman, none from 2013-2015 (Boyd & Graveman damn close as is Jansen). Remember, he had a stack of extra 1st round picks due to being very smart about manipulating the system at the time (marks for that, loses some for wasting 1st round picks on Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski, Jacob Anderson, Dwight Smith Jr., Kevin Comer, D.J. Davis, Max Pentecost, Jon Harris, and twice not signing his first round pick). He had successes, but looking at all those wasted first round picks you know things in '15 and beyond could've been so much better.

Also the idea that the jays weren't elite but were only a 500 team is an argument many (including me) do not take seriously as all the metrics on runs scored/allowed and advanced metrics showed the Jays were elite, not 500, when the going for it trade was done.

Some of the bad contracts were also part of getting out of other bad contracts (i.e. tulo was a like-for-like conversion of Reyes and an improvement in performance there) and AA was able to get out of bad contracts like Wells and Rios and others in his tenure time as well.

Looks like a middling draft record to me john, and then you should really include the IFA market (which should also include Kirk given it was his guy down south who signed him just after he was fired). Don't see how the new regime's drafting has been any better.

The difference being that AA understood that most prospects fail and didn't stay attached to them and favor them over actual good mlb players.

And Tulo was the only actual "bad" contract. And that was only because his body completely shut down on him.

anyways i really did try to avoid getting into the weeds on this again. it doesn't really need to be re-hashed. we've done it plenty of times.

But yes when i read a nitpick of AA here without proper context i do like to point out that it's wrong, while doing my best not to drag the whole board down into another AA-Atkins slogfest.

Good lets all move on... The paint is almost finished drying...

On Tuesday, David Schoenfield of ESPN predicted that Hernández would re-sign with the Toronto Blue Jays, for whom he played from 2017 to 2022, on a three-year, $66 million contract.

"At the start of the offseason, there seemed to be an assumption Hernandez would return to the (Los Angeles) Dodgers... but the two sides are reportedly far apart -- and the Dodgers signed Michael Conforto, another corner outfielder with subpar defensive metrics," Schoenfield said.

I still find it hard to understand how Cleveland managed the second best record in the AL with their line-up. Their starting rotation was a mess all year so they had to have an outstanding pen which they were successful achieving. Somehow with their rotation they still managed to allow the second lowest Runs per Game in the AL.

Taking a look at their pen reveals that their big four at the backend were either mid- to low- or undrafted (2020) draft picks or traded for (and then suspended for PEDs). Clase was probably the big piece in a trade for Corey Kluber who, I think, had one year left on his contract.

The 2024 Guardians had 1 all-round great hitter in Ramirez, a GG LF with outstanding contact ability in Kwan and a Josh Naylor (a meh 1B who slugged but "only" had a 118 OPS+).

Given the state of the current Jays roster, what do you see them doing to get the 92 win outcome as the Guardians did this past season?

1 Vlad, 1 good Bo, + 1 slugger from somewhere and outstanding D from Giminez, Clement, Kirk and Varsho. Find two or three no names who can throw 94+ and hope they don't walk the world and one more starter?

Guardians also had the advantage of playing in the AL Central thus extra games vs the horrid White Sox (8-5) while just having 6 vs the Yankees (2-4). Jays were 5-1 vs ChiSox, 6-7 vs NYY. So those extra 7 vs the White Sox and 7 fewer vs Yankees (not to mention they had fewer vs TB, Red Sox, O's and more vs Tigers, KC, Min whose records were all boosted by playing those ChiSox so much).

More balanced than in the past, but still a factor when 2 divisions are pathetic (the Central's). They cannot do radical realignment soon enough for me. Get the Jays out of the AL East and into a division with the Tigers, Guardians and whoever else makes sense.

"Given the state of the current Jays roster, what do you see them doing to get the 92 win outcome as the Guardians did this past season?"

What John said...playing CLE, CWS, MIN and DET more often instead of the AL East.

I'd say anyone dreaming of Nolan Arenado needs to get real - he reportedly used his No-Trade clause to block a deal with the Astros. If he doesn't want to go to Houston I'd put odds as very, very low he'd want to come up here to Canada.

Who wouldn’t want to follow in the footsteps of legendary 3b like Glaus, Rolen, Donaldson…none of them had their careers cut short by playing on cement

" What John said...playing CLE,CWS,MIN and DET more often instead of the AL East."

I don't think that would have helped. The Jays won the season series 5-1 against the White Sox, but lost their season series to all 4 of the other teams with a combined record of 8-18. So, yeah, it have helped playing the White Sox more and they could have finished in second last place in that division instead of last in the East.

Unless it's Vlad or Bo, I'm guessing we're done for a few weeks.

I wouldn't look at the record against those division teams and make a conclusion because it's not cumulative. When you are not facing the tougher teams in the AL East you can rest your bullpen, your starters can go longer, your hitters put up better numbers and you can string together wins. Jays always seem to have a tough stretch of 30 days where it's NYY, HOU, BAL, NYY, TB, BAL, HOU, PHI, etc gauntlet. It all adds up.

Soupman ... you know that the infield in Toronto is dirt just like every other stadium except Tampa Bay, right?

Many of our regular players had bad years which meant little contribution. Our D IF & OF was not a problem IMO. Our rotation was V good in that it was not the reason for the bad year. They provided a lot overall. Our O received good/expected/hoped for performances from just 2 regulars. Vlad & IKF. I don't consider Clement a 2024 regular out of ST. D Schneider IMO was a possible regular out of ST, many including me wanted a bigger sample size to evaluate his 2023 season based on his fast start but slow finish.

At the trade deadline we lost Kikuchi, Yimi and IKF. So the rotation was weakened but B Francis stepped up V well which was a big surprise to me. Yimi's loss hurt our V weak pen. Wagner did the D Schneider thing. Hot start, slow finish which makes me uncertain of his 2025 performance.

In a lost/losing season I don't feel like doing an analysis. But it seemed our O improved and Pen was worse after the trade deadline. Was the record the same, better or worse?

Also, weren't Glaus and Rolen's major issues both chronic shoulder problems that started before they went to the Jays?

It's kind of funny that my #1 target this offseason is still available. Hopefully we get lucky and we land Burnes. He's the guy i wanted on day 1.

That's the one signing left that significantly increases our upside to legit playoff contender this year imo.

I just listened to the latest podcast from BNS and Arden Zwelling and the proposed rest of season moves sound depressing...gets them to an 82 win projection. They're talking about 20 million left to spend on guys like Max Kepler, Lucas Simms and Hoby Milner...dear lord I don't want to see what that bullpen will look like when Garcia and Green are put on the IL

Mets sign Griffin Canning to a 1 year contract.

you know it wasn't and it's still a few inches of dirt on top of concrete, right?

Glaus had plantar fasciitis in his heel. You can add Bautista's turf toe, and many others over the years. Springer's legs were giving out playing CF...

It's a public secret and in 15 years we'll look back and wonder why they didn't put grass in when they had the chance.

"you know it wasn't and it's still a few inches of dirt on top of concrete, right?"

No, I know that it was dug up about 16 feet deep or more from what I remember and all concrete was removed from the infield base paths and then gravel, sand and clay mix was added so there is zero concrete and better drainage. I also see them watering it EVERY half inning at the games. Actually, I just looked online and found this if you would like to see the proof and a better explanation than I can provide going off memory.

As I've said a few times at this site...the idea of concrete affecting Matt Chapman, Bo or other infields only applies to plays on the turf which is few and far between. The cutouts in the video were from beginning of the renovation from almost 10 years ago and in fact the end result is a big playing surface of natural surface for the infielders.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpyTzjwLNgU

*6 feet not 16 feet.

I love fact checking false narratives BTW :)

Oh interesting, because for years people said it was not an issue. So you're saying that they dug up 6' of concrete for...reasons not related to the injuries it was causing players?

Let's hope their back-of-napkin calculations that 6 feet of softer material can simulate natural surface are correct.

No, no not at all. What I am saying is the following:

They dug up the concrete and installed natural material 8 years ago which proves your contention of "a few inches of dirt on top of concrete," is a BS narrative.

Donaldson played 1 season out of 13 on turf infield which contradicts your claim that he had his career cut short by playing in Toronto. It's also well known if you look that he has dealt with calf issues going back to college.

I'll add another point now ... you just mentioned that "for years people said it was not an issue" regarding playing on turf. Is this another point I should look up to see if there is any merit to it or baseless?

While we're at it..."let's hope their back of napkin calculations that 6 feet of softer material can simulate natural surface are correct," please research the data done by the University of Waterloo and Paul Beeston when they decided not to install natural grass for the entire stadium as there are answers in the reports that disprove your idea of "back-of-napkin" decisions.

One more point to add...they didn't install natural grass because they would have needed to essentially cut plumbing and electrical to half the downtown block and housing where they are located.

This information is all available and free for anyone intertested in learning about it.

ugly, the Burnes situation isn't looking good. BNS and Zwellng both agree he's looking for a contract upwards of eight years, and a dollar figure the Jays just won't do. They could be wrong, but this sounds very on-brand for this regime.  They've only really been able to pounce on big free agents when the bidder list has been small (Springer was used as an example).

The Naylor rumours are very intriguing and are giving me a little bit of hope that this off-season won't once again be a soul sucking nightmare. If the Jays can add a big bat through trade, and save a bit of money there, it may give them more flexibility to fill more holes. That's where we're at.

I'm guessing the Jays get a 2-3 players from this list: Profar, Kim (really lean into that plus D), Manaea, Hoffman, Pivetta, Buehler, and Soroka...

More fifth-place vibes.

Still don't think there's enough depth to get any players of significance via trade... unless they take on salary like with Gimenez.

Scratch off Soroka.

"I'm guessing the Jays get a 2-3 players from this list: Profar, Kim (really lean into that plus D), Manaea, Hoffman, Pivetta, Buehler, and Soroka..."

Remove Hoffman and Manaea and that is pretty much my current expectation of this FO. I'm hoping (praying) that they can go into the "special budget" for a Teoscar or Santander.

The 2021 team had 3 offense bats that made the difference - Hernandez, Gurriel Jr and Semien. The ideal would be to add 3 more bats like Kepler, Alonso and Bregman. Fat chance that happens. Next best option is 2 of the 3. Kepler and Alonso lets say. That would get them closer to what they had for offense in 2021 but with much better defense.

This would get the FO in good shape to the end of the 2025 season.

"ugly, the Burnes situation isn't looking good."

oh i know, petey, i know.

unfortunately it's the only situation that would give me any optimism.

sprinkling money around on the remaining free agents names wouldn't significantly increase our odds and a number of them might actually decrease our odds.

Ugly what is your take on Springer? What should the Jays do?

he's a sunk cost now. he still projects well enough. last year's super low babip suggest a bounceback is quite possible maybe even probable.

wouldn't be shocking at all to see him have one or two more big years the rest of the way. him being better than some of the "big free agent bats" this year wouldn't even be shocking.

i wouldn't pay anything to ditch him.

a swap for another bad contract might be interesting but those are always tough.

Where do you pencil him into lineup if no further additions made and where does he go if Kepler or Santander added?

Kepler is off to Philly

Kepler is an example of a signing that would have likely made us worse.

Phils taxed at 95% rate on Kepler and Romano so they are paying almost teice as much and will lose their 2025 first round pick, I think.

We lost out on Max Kepler and Hoby Milner. Still hope for Lucas Simms. Based on BNS and A Zwelling.

They dug it like a foot deep and you still had guys blowing their legs up. That’s likely why they went to great expense to dig grave depth to put in a softer surface. Time will tell if this finally fixes what at least 3 new turfs and the move to a dirt infield failed to fix.

I would consider Lucas Sims on a milb contract w/ spring invite but I'm not sure he's better than what's already in the org. Very BABIP lucky, whiffs plummeted and he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher who was very homer prone while pitching in the NL Central. He definitely doesn't give AL East stud vibes.

I guess Bo really doesn't want to be here if they are planning to trade him and spend money on a replacement for the infield rather than signing him.

There is still a lot of time left in the off season. 1 more month I expect before most things are done. I will be patient.

Bo is all bat and they don't have a DH or a hitter for LF.
It all comes down to what comes back, not what Bo wants.
It would be different if he wanted to sign a team friendly contract.

Lucas Sims is a pitcher.
Lucas Simms is a videogame character.

Neither appeal to me.

Toronto Blue Jays@BlueJays

OFFICIAL: We’ve signed RHP Eric Pardinho, LHP Eric Lauer, and C Ali Sánchez to Minor League deals with invites to #SpringTraining.

Christian Walker off the board. Heading to HOU on 3 year deal.

It appears the teams in play for Sasaki are not making moves until he signs so as not to affect the amount of money they can offer ever though his agent has said money won't be the main determining factor to his clients decision where to sign.

Pardinho gave up 0 runs in his last 10 outings with Buffalo. 13 innings. Nice depth piece as is Lauer.

Seems like the door is closed for Bregman in Houston. I wonder where he’s going

Looking at Kepler's stats I don't see any big deal not getting him 104 lifetime OPS+, twice reached 120, 6 times in the 90's - odds are he will be in the 90's again for 2025. Not exciting at all to me, would rather see if any of the kids can play or just give the playing time to Lukes.

Jurickson Profar appears to be after a 3+ year deal. Yikes given his 98 lifetime OPS+ (134 last year). His WAR by year for 21-now is 0-3-(1.3)-3.6 - basically he is either very good or replacement level. I could see a 3/$30 deal or even 3/$45 if I squint, but anything past that is being silly imo, especially given he is entering his age 32 season. Santander is after a 5 year deal which imo is nuts. 114 lifetime OPS+, 134 last year, he is stable at 2.3-3.0 bWAR a year the past 3 years so you know what you are getting - a 120's OPS+ with poor defense, lots of dingers, lots of K's, entering his age 30 season so in theory a better bet than most other choices. Teo after a 3 year deal/$60 mil+ 121 OPS+ lifetime, 134 last year seems to be the best bet for offense among these guys. '21 to now WAR's are 3.8-2.8-2.1-4.3, the only bad year was in Seattle, the rest were 130's OPS+ (141 last year). A 3 year deal for him seems the best option of these guys. Best bargain is probably Joc Pederson who was expected to sign for 2/$28 mil. Lord knows what the market dictates right now though. But I'd love a Teo reunion and/or Pederson to cover DH/LF if he is willing to sign at that price.

As to Springer - I suspect he'll end up in the leadoff position, again, despite all evidence he shouldn't be there right now, or kept in the top 5 of the order. Ugh. He belongs in the bottom 3 right now, after Varsho but before Gimenez and whoever is at 3B (Clement right now). Hopefully we get a dead cat bounce from him for more than a month. The only way he gets traded is as a 'bad deal for a bad deal' situation - ideally for a 3B who needs a change of scenery. Sadly Nolan Arenado seems determined to not be traded (he has a no trade clause)

Bregman is now moving into the 'maybe, just maybe' category with Houston no longer a realistic option for him. He might end up like Semien did years ago - desperate as spring approaches thus willing to take a 1 year deal (or 2 with an opt-out or something). 3 straight years of 4+ WAR performance at 3B would make him a very, very good addition. Right now it is Vlad (ugly defense), Clement, the kids, or take a chance on lord knows what. Vlad being there would require a 1B to be signed which could be a mistake by May if Vlad has to go back to 1B, Clement had a good year with 3.4 bWAR but odds are low of repeating it (0.3 bWAR career before last year). I'd LOVE it if he could repeat but no way are the Jays going to bet on it. Barger has flashes of being good but again, no way would they bet on that either (same applies to any prospect right now). If 2025 ends up being a write off by July then Barger and other kids would play full time and this board can be filled with 'I told you so' people.

Bregman's market is the Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Mets, but mostly the Yankees.

As much as the contract will age badly, Bregman is looking to make more and more sense if , especially if the Jays are considering trading Bichette. Bregman at 3B, Gimenez at SS, and some mix of Clement / Jimenez / Wagner / Orelvis at 2B could make sense.

Thanks phone for the poor formatting. Also, that's not me advocating in favor of Bregman's likely lucrative contract, just a reality that they may pivot that way.

I still would prefer to sign a good starter.

Jays have signed Josh Walker, a 30 year old LHP. Hagen Danner has been DFA'd.

I'm with you Kelekin. Swapping bo for bregs keeps the offense the same but prob upgrades defense, and then spend the difff on SP.

Paying Bo SS money to be a 2B doesn't add up imo.

Same except id even rather have Santander and Teo as same total buy in amount/less years.

Jays go with floor (Walker) over ceiling (Danner)... with so much other roster chum available to cut, you have to assume (well, hope, with this FO) that they have another deal ready involving Danner, who was recently given a 4th option. His upper-90s FB and excellent slider could really blossom with a team like Cleveland that knows how to develop arms. I can see him turning into a Clase-lile reliever in 2-3 years if he can stay healthy.

The last time the Jays cut a 4th option player, it didn't turn out so well for them (Otto Lopez, 2.5 fWAR lost for nothing)

Walker is basically a touch more than an NRI - guaranteed under $1 mil so a very easy cut if needed. A bit wild but lots of K's. Potential there for the back end of the pen plus has 1 final option thus can be bounced up and down all year as needed.

As to Bregman - he could be useful but I doubt they sign him, then trade Bo and rotate Clement/Wagner/whoever at 2B and move Gimenez to SS, although that could work out nicely depending on what they get for Bo in a trade. We all expect Bo to age badly with that max effort swing and meh defense, while Bregman is a couple years older but should sign for less than Bo will demand if he has a solid 2025 (a year in line with his past - a 120-130's OPS+ with meh defense - in this market with him being 27 should result in a 7+ year deal at $25-$35 mil per, an off year and the Jays would have just held him too long ala Donaldson back in '18 and he gets lord knows what depending on what other teams think of his potential).

Options - which one
Cots..Pop-1, Burr-0
FG..Pop-0, Burr-1

By the time Danner is a productive ML pitcher, the Jays are likely to have a new FO - Walker may produce next year and there’s no incentive for Shapiro/Atkins to help the next FO. Again, it’s ownership.fault keeping a FO that’s on expiring contracts and need badly to make the playoffs next season - either fire or extend them.

Does anybody actually think Shapiro won't be renewed? I highly doubt Rogers does not. Wh's going to run the team, Keith Pelley?

Fully agree dalimon5. Shapiro stays. Atkins too I feel. I think J Schneider has to prove himself this year. I feel that J Schneider did well last year because something changed and the results were that Gausman for example got to throw 110 pitches quite often.

I did not realize that the Phillies have a massive payroll. Big, big penalties. LAD, NYM and NYY are probably also up there.

I don’t think anything the FO has done so far has been indicative of their jobs being on the line. Garcia was a run of the mill reliever signing, and Gimenez while an upgrade for 2025 seems just as much a 2026-beyond move as Bichette’s replacement. We will see what the rest of the winter leads to, but I haven’t seen a pure desperation move yet, which is something I expected going into the off-season.

Pop was optioned in 2022, 2023 and 2024 so he's definitely out of options. Burr was optioned in 21 and 22 but not in 23... the Jays optioned him a couple times in 2024 but his stay in the minors was only 19 days total so he was under the 20-day threshold to use the option. Therefore Burr still has 1 remaining. *once optioned to the minors, an option is only used up if the player spends 20+ days in the minors during that season.

Agree SK. I think their approach is their approach, regardless of the circumstances.

Jays under the luxury tax for 2024. Phew. That means lower penalties for signing QO free agents and lower penalties for going over in '25 and '26. So that is good news. The Cubs went over by $570k - ouch. Dodgers over $100 mil over, Mets $97 mil, Yankees $62 mil. Phillies, Atlanta, Texas, Houston, SF all under $20 mil over (but $2+ mil over).

Jays final figure was $233,920,561 with the magic number being $237 mil. Phew, it was tight but they made it.

Thanks Marc

Great research Marc. Love how we have people who will look up anything here.

I find FanGraphs is best for option status (and good defensive stats), Cot's for contracts, BR easiest for most stats & drafting stuff, The Baseball Cube for finding out who was on BA top 10 lists and IFA signings, etc. Each site has a specialty that they beat the others at.

Option Status

• N/A (too much ML time to be demoted): Springer, Bo, Vlad, Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Yariel Rodríguez (no idea why he'd be this, but listed that way, in theory should have 2 options as he was sent down last year for a period of over a month), Green, Garcia, Swanson
• 0 Options: Clement, Heineman, Pop, Nance, Ali Sánchez (NRI), Michael Stefanic (NRI), Eric Lauer (NRI)
• 1 Option: Lukes, Jimenez, Clase, Francis, Burr, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, Nick Robertson, Josh Walker, Hagen Danner (DFA)
• 2 Options: Giménez, Loperfido, Little, Varsho, Manoah, Berroa, Bloss, Macko, Eisert, de Gaus, Lucas, Petersen
• 3 Options: Wagner, Kirk, Schneider, Sandin, Bastardo

All others have not been on a ML 40 man roster yet thus have all 3 options and will continue to have them unless called up and sent down.

So all the relievers listed there with 1 option I'd expect to be yo-yo's most of the year, 2+ options might be as well.

Is the following correct? Danner was drafted and signed in 2017. So an 8 year pro/minor leaguer. Now DFA'd but still over 6 years as a minor league pro. Can he elect Free Agency? If so he can come back to the Jays unless he gets a better deal.

The Jays have 10 days to trade him, which they will likely do even if all they get is cash or international pool money. I would think a pitcher with an option remaining and two potentially plus pitches (who is also almost MLB-ready) will bring back a player in the low minors with some potential that doesn't need to be added to the 40-man. Good GMs would get something back but Atkins has struggled in the past to turn DFAs into anything.

I believe if Danner doesn't get traded and clears waivers (basically a 0% chance unless he's injured) then he would be assigned outright to the minors and would have to stay with the Jays. The deadline to declare milb free agency for the 2024-25 period has already passed. He won't become a FA until the 2025-26 period unless he gets released.

You can keep track of all the Jays' milb options, years of service, when players become eligible for Rule 5, etc. on my spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sBLsqrXhFNMw7mZKmXFgnuyZofbzZcEumECa9Szmrns/edit?gid=1003197199#gid=1003197199

dalimon, interesting you mentioned Keith Pelley. On Stephen Brunt's new podcast, Pelley talks about his new role with MLSE (which now is literally Rogers). He mentioned Ed Rogers is keen to win (not to just be competitive) in sports, and that's what drives business. Given all the conflicting information we've heard about how aggressive the Jays are with their money this off-season, I wonder if part of it is the new tall foreheads in the ownership structure are still feeling each other out in terms of their vision for the baseball team.

Thanks Marc.

The Yankees have signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one year contract which means the Yankees could potentially have a 1B opening next offseason.

I cant think of any major market team that won't have an opening at 1B next year except maybe the Dodgers. When you have a 26 year old prime 1B with elite numbers hitting free agency you make room on your roster for him. I expect a bidding war from Boston, Houston, New York (possibly both), Philadelphia, Atlanta, Texas, LAA and San Francisco. Someone's going to pay Vlad 500 million and regret the deal halfway through. For all the tall of him wanting to stay in Toronto it sure seems like he wants to max his value and wait for free agency unless overpaid by Toronto.

Here are two first basemen:
Player A: 3540 PA, .288/.363/.500, .863 OPS, 137 OPS+, 160 HR, -4.5 dWAR
Player B: 3607 PA, .249/.339/.554, .854 OPS, 134 OPS+, 226 HR, -4.8 dWAR

Player A is Vlady, reportedly seeking $500M+ either from the Jays (now) or someone else next offseason. Player B is Pete Alonso, reportedly seeking $150M but currently a free agent without a market, other than returning to Mets, who seem content to slow play the situation. Alonso is 4.5 years older, strikes out more, and doesn't have Vlady's ceiling... but will be half the price (or less) for a very similar output. Much like the "sign Bregman & trade Bo" strategy, you could make a similar case to "sign Alonso & trade Vlady". It would be terribly unpopular, but mathematically might make a lot of sense.

I am truly shocked & saddened - Ricky Henderson one of the great players of my baseball fandom and baseball stolen base king has passed away @ 65 - RIP Rickey and condolences to his family - you start to think of your own mortality.

Shocked to hear about Ricky, he was a great player and a great quote too. Gone too soon. Maybe Oakland moving killed him (#joke).

Alonso (not counting 2020) just had the worse year of his career, despite playing in every game mustered just 2.6 rWAR. Mets fans have been salivating at the idea of an Alonso for Vlad swap since 2021. Everyone regards Vlad's talent and youth as over-riding the lines. Polarbear had 69 (nice) HR through his age 25 season and OPS+ peaking at 147 in his rookie year. Vlad just threw up a 166, and 213 in the second half.

I maintain that Vlad's issues in 22/23 were mostly injury related, and I think the spread on those lines is about to blow wide open.

With that said, a small market team like the Jays probably cannot afford to be wrong on mega-contracts like VGJ is reportedly asking for. So...I think the best course is that they "stick to their valuations" and move on, and hope for the crapshoot of talent evaluation to let them get into the crapshoot of the postseason the way that the Dodgers have crapshot their way to 2/5 of the most recent WS, and the way that Yankees crapshot their way to WS several times from 96-09, and the Red Sox running high payrolls crapshooting to WS 3 times, and the 92-93 Jays with their highest in baseball payrolls being a complete dumb luck team going back-2-back.

Good news?

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal·2h
Dodgers exploring right-handed hitting alternatives beyond free agent Teoscar Hernández.

For you:

"A small market team is a professional sports team that is based in a city or region with a smaller TV market and population density than other teams. Small market teams face unique challenges in terms of revenue generation, sponsorship opportunities, and fan base size. They may also struggle to compete financially against teams from larger markets and may be outbid in the competition for top talent. "

Front office behaviour and strategy does not determine what size market you're operating in.

From today:

"In a recent report, Schoenfield stated that he believes that the Blue Jays will land Hernandez on a three year deal worth $66 million paying him $22 million per season which would be a great deal for what he bring to the plate.
ESPN insider David Schoenfield predicts Teoscar Hernández to re-sign with his former team this offseason. But that team is not the Dodgers. -Garcia

While Schoenfield listed the Dodgers as a potential landing spot for Hernández, he predicted the three-time Silver Slugger to ultimately sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. Schoenfield predicted a three-year, $66 million contract for Hernández. -Garcia"

Josh Naylor is reportedly off to Arizona.

Seems odd how Cleveland signed Santana, and traded Naylor thus getting older. Guess they felt the draft pick and prospect was a good fill for the age spread.

Kind in an indictment on the state of the Central, isn’t it? Cleveland has traded two of its better players and is still planning on competing (at least as far as I know).

A couple adds and I would put the Tigers ahead of them.

Tell that to Miami.

Meanwhile AA sits on his hands in Atlanta. Meanwhile Atkins is still looking for the light switch to turn on...he seems completely in the dark.

It is very important to remember that this is the off season. 2024 is over and 2025's schedule has not begun yet. The off season is very amusing with the silly rumors, speculation and guessing. My guessing is that CWS, Miami and Colorado will be very weak with under 70 wins each in 2025.

Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies from Miami for 2 prospects.

So very, very quiet here today. Feel like we're all waiting for a shoe to drop - who goes first, Teoscar or Burnes? Will the Jays get either? Both? Neither? Odds are neither with how things have been going, if one then Teoscar seems the best bet. The dream is SD decides they cannot risk $300 mil on Tatis anymore (PED issue 2 years ago, OPS+ 160 pre, 118 post) Jays desperate to make a big splash so send Bo & Springer to clear short term payroll in exchange for big jump longer term plus a couple of prospects. Jays then are a 'wow' team that everyone picks to win again if they sign both Teo & Burnes too.

The virgin egg nog dream is imagining Teoscar or Burnes, trade Bo for a closer, trade Springer for anything if they'll eat his contract. Sign Vlad long term ($450/15 years maybe?).

The 'depressed drunk' nightmare is Jays do nothing until nearly spring, then sign whoever is desperate for work at a discount. Trade Bo & Vlad mid-season, along with any other free agents to get back under the tax line for another offseason of despair. Mix in learning another prospect was caught on PED's just to give us a good kick where it hurts.

Stuff out there on the interwebs about Vlad and the Jays. Apparently he was on a podcast down in the Dominican and said that the #350M offer that was reported was after the Soto deal, and Vlad's looking for a lot more. Also a report that the Jays offered him $150 over 7 after his 2021 season.

The 'depressed drunk' nightmare is Jays do nothing until nearly spring, then sign whoever is desperate for work at a discount. Trade Bo & Vlad mid-season, along with any other free agents to get back under the tax line for another offseason of despair. Mix in learning another prospect was caught on PED's just to give us a good kick where it hurts.

I was in the "burn it all done at the trade deadline 2024 including Vlad and Bo" camp.

The front office only traded the rental players. The returns seem fairly widely praised, particularly the Kikuchi return.

Yimi Garcia was re-signed for only money. The Romano non-tender was unexpected, but I'm okay with it considering his wonky health and only one year of control left.

With how the offseason has gone so far, I'm back in the "burn it all down including Vlad and Bo" camp.

I found the Gimenez trade confusing and unimpressive unless he returns anywhere close to his MVP runner-up offensive production. Though the cost other than future payroll room was fairly low.

I don't want the front office to panic and overpay for some desperation free agents at this stage simply for the veneer that this team is still competitive.

I also don't really want the FO to commit the resources needed for the next decade or decade-&-a-half to keep Vlad around just because of vibes and FOMO.

The nightmare scenario isn't trading Vlad and Bo at the deadline. It's actually that the FO repeats last year's offseason, signing some bit players to pretend that they are competing in the AL East simply to make season ticket holders happy, while attempting an ill-advised, low probability pennant run only to lose both Bo & Vlad afterwards for a couple of low value comp picks.

Sounds like the Jays and Vladdy are no where near each other in contract talks. It is bordering irresponsible to keep him at this point. If the 2024 team had made the playoffs, and they wanted to hold on to Vlad to keep the train moving, then that would at least be somewhat justifiable. To keep him coming off a well deserved last place finish, while they have a laundry list of holes to fill without any help from the farm system is just insanity. Either sign Burnes + Teoscar + Santander and go crazy for one year, or use actual logic. Anything in between those two extremes makes zero sense.

"the Jays offered him $150 over 7 after his 2021 season."

yikes

Apparently this is what "big market" teams do. They ask their players to take $15+m a year discounts on their prime years.

The Jays are like the Nats. Can we have some Strasburg-type extensions? No, we already have Strasburg at home. Where that refers to Jose Berrios.

I don’t think it’s “yikes” at all.

If you use the money he’s made so far (7.9 in 22, 14.5 in 23, 19.9 in 24, and the 28 estimate for 25, it gets you to 70m. You have 3 years left and 80M, so that gives you an average of 26.6 and then he’s a FA at 29.

It’s a reasonable deal for 2021, and would give Vlad the chance to cash in again. You have to remember it was 2021 prices. The 26.6 is a higher AAV than Semien got after a 40+ homer campaign as a second baseman. It only looks low because of the inflation that has occurred since.

Nightmare is going into the season as is then mid-season when preparing to trade guys they get hurt and screws up the plan and we lose them for nothing in the winter (cough 2018).

Or the Jays panic now and sign 5+ year deals with Santander and Bregman, give Vlad and/or Bo a much bigger deal than they deserve to try to keep them (with multiple player opt-outs), trade prospects for vets likely to be 2 WAR players to fill in holes, etc.

Ash gave us the nightmare of dealing prospects for vets in a desperate/failed effort to save his job. Can't think of any GM here who did the giant deals to save their job (closest was the Vernon Wells deal but that was on the team president Paul Godfrey from the sounds of it at the time and afterwards - a good summary of it is here). Y'know, looking back at that Wells deal it isn't hard to see parallels with Vlad. Career year, 2nd really 'wow' year in their career, trying for a long term 'franchise player' deal. Well was just done his age 27 season (6.2 bWAR, the end of a 4 year great stretch of 4.5-4.5-3.2-6.2), he had a dead cat bounce at age 31 (4.0) which got him traded to LAA (hehehe) and gave AA his rep imo.

So should Vlad be signed to a mega deal like Wells was? If he is will it end as ugly as that one did? The biggest difference between the Wells and Delgado and Vlad situations is age. Vlad is entering his age 26 season then is a free agent. Wells had 1 more year until his free agency (after age 28), Delgado became a free agent after age 32. Delgado post Jays had just 7.6 bWAR left in him (injuries) so despite fan pleading for his return JPR did the right thing. Wells after signing had just 8.2 bWAR left, 6.8 post when he would've been a free agent. So again, would've been better to let him go. I guarantee Shapiro/Atkins knows this and that is factored into their plans. As fans it is easy to get all built up, but teams need to be smarter. Lets do a fast look at the best 1B here. Pre-27 and 27+ (to cover Vlad pre and post free agency)

• Willie Upshaw: 107 OPS+ 4.3 bWAR vs 101 OPS+ 8.7 bWAR
• Cecil Fielder: 139 OPS+ 6.8 bWAR vs 113 OPS+ 10.5 bWAR
• Fred McGriff: 153 OPS+ 19.4 bWAR vs 129 OPS+ 33.2 bWAR
• John Olerud: 132 OPS+ 20.1 bWAR vs 127 OPS+ 38.1 bWAR
• Carlos Delgado: 123 OPS+ 7.7 bWAR vs 143 OPS+ 36.7 bWAR
• Vlad Jr: 139 OPS+ 21.5 bWAR (1 year to go), no idea post.

So despite having a HOF'er and 2 who were dammn close and 2 more all-stars none produced like Vlad has pre-27 for bWAR (Olerud the closest), with only McGriff outdoing the OPS+, Fielding being tied is interesting though (he lost a year in Japan and came back to Detroit and hit 50 HR at age 26) - kind of scary how good the 1B situation was here in the late 80's and how Gillick nearly blew it in an effort to keep Upshaw playing everyday (dumping Fielder for nothing, platooning McGriff and Fielder for a year). If Vlad produces 40 more WAR (outdoing everyone on the list) then he is worth a $400+ mil deal, but that is a tall order. 30's is more likely, heavily front loaded (first 5 years). For example, Olerud from 29-33 was 'wow' - 5+ bWAR every year but 1 (GG that year 117 OPS+) but post 34 on only McGriff had any real value (roughly 10 bWAR) as Fielder was done at 34, Olerud dragged to 36 (1.7 bWAR final 2 years), Delgado made 37 (2.1 bWAR final 3 years). McGriff, and Delgado were like Vlad in being poor fielding 1B whose bat was their entire value. Vlad can cover 3B when needed which is a plus but not a massive one (unless by some miracle he plays there everyday in '25) - Delgado tried C & LF but it was very ugly. There was talk of Olerud & McGriff going to LF as well, but luckily that never happened.

So bottom line, the Jays are probably being baseball smart not to go nuts with Vlad, but emotionally we all want him signed. We want a HOF plaque with Vlad wearing a Jays cap, with it being the only ML cap he ever wore.

"t only looks low because of the inflation that has occurred since"

absolutely expected inflation that has occurred since, you mean.

Basically Vlad was smart to not take that deal, but at the time it was a very fair deal offered. Like others have said Vlad is from a family with significant wealth and had his own thanks to a big signing bonus. He was feeling no real pressure to sign. Other players without that benefit would've felt the pressure (say, Kirk for example who signed for under $50k).

They are offering Devers money to hik now and he wants more. He wants to be paid more than any other 1B ever and he wants to be in between Devers and Soto. Ot was reported he wanted 300 to 400 last year and now 400 is the floor and he thinks he can get closer to half a billion. Trade him.

Absolutely not what I mean, Ugly. Yes inflation is to be expected in FA contracts. However the discussion in in 2020/21 was whether or not free agency was broken. Teams were extremely conservative coming out of the pandemic. The Jays were more agressive than the norm, at that time, and we got Ray, Semien, Springer and a Berrios extension to show for it.

If we ran a poll at the time asking if Shohei and Soto would get $700m dollar deals no one would have said yes.

Those contracts have happened though, so it’s moved the goalposts for someone like Vlad.

Right now the question of 'is Vlad going to be worth $500 mil to the Jays over 10-15 years', answer is 'no, not likely' (would require 40+ bWAR going forward with a few years in the 6-8 range). But the Jays have a bonus element of 'does he provide enough extra value in being a lifelong Blue Jays-HOFer to justify the cost beyond his actual playing value' and that answer is a heck of a lot harder to figure out. I just have trouble seeing him doing well in his mid-30's, but it could happen - heck, it has happened for other players and he seems the type who has a high level of pride on the line with it. The question is do Atkins & Shapiro & to a lesser degree Rogers see him as having that bonus value? If the Jays had gone to his house in October and told him 'we want you to be a Jay for life, what will it take' and then handed him the contract based on that they'd have probably gotten him for around $400 mil. By waiting it is now up to $500 mil, wait until next winter and it could be $600 mil, or he could have a horrid year and it drops. We'll see what happens next. I'm guessing he is waiting for Teoscar to sign/not sign here first to give his friend the extra leverage.

Latest MLTBR article says Vlad has set an ultimatum of "sign me by end of day 1 of spring training, or we're done"..

And, "$340MM isn't even close to what I'm looking for".

At least he's pressing the issue / helping move things along.

At this point, I'd try to trade him and Bo and do a full rebuild. Given the lack of pitching left, we can probably get some reasonable talent for Gaussman and Bassitt.

"If we ran a poll at the time asking if Shohei and Soto would get $700m dollar deals no one would have said yes."

It was very forseeable - and suggested here many times - that a 10yr/$300 deal for vladdy was pretty much a no brainer and likely to look like a discount well before the end of the deal.

Manaea to the Mets, 3 years, $75M.

Pederson to the Rangers.

Walker Buehler to Red Sox. Likely takes them out of Burnes, so he should soon be announced to San Francisco.

2/37M.
That's relatively cheap, yet more than what most predicted.

Keep Vlad and Bo and attempt to compete in this watered down playoff environment. There's no need to ship them out of town for the type of return the Sox got for Betts.

It is being reported that Buehler signed a 1 year deal for $21.05.

$37mil/2 was Pederson.

Agreed 92-93, unless it is a solid return (multiple top 100 prospects, ideally someone in the top 20) no way do I trade Vlad and/or Bo until mid-season and then only if it is clearly a lost year like 2024 was or the return is overwhelming.

It is frustrating when the Jays seem to not value their own players as much as they value others. However, it is good that Atkins doesn't appear to do many panic moves and even those tend to be of the 1-2 year damage not long term damage - no rushing prospects ala JPR with Travis Snider, no saying 'screw it' and trading all prospects for a post season push ala AA, no nightmares like most of Ash's trades. Is Atkins perfect? Hell no. But is he a disaster? Nope. 21-23 saw 89-92 wins a year, like 15/16 and 91-93, and 83-85. Yes, no playoff wins but that was thanks to a bizarre set of circumstances in the one game and the team just slumping at the worst possible time. Crap happens. The O's haven't won a playoff game in the 20's either despite having a 101 win team the one year - are they garbage?

As I've mentioned before around '87-89 many Jay fans were ready to pull the plug on 'stand pat' Gillick due to his lack of trades and no real sense of urgency from him. Then came 'the trade' and the floodgates opened. AA was probably seen by most as a failure going into 2015 (but an entertaining one thanks to his 'you never see it coming' trades and free agent signings) but now is seen as a massive unforgiveable loss. No one cried a tear over JPR or Ash being let go - heck many cheered and with good reason (neither has been a GM before or since, and I can't even recall rumors of someone wanting to interview them for that job).

I actually think this deadline set by Vlad is his way of telling the FO to poop or get off the potter. "Sign me at my price or trade me," essentially. Respect.

This FO... do something I'm losing the little faith I have left. I'm going to go get a keg of beer from Bolton Beer Store ... Krombacher Weizen. When I get back, ice the kef and prep it for tomorrow I really hope there is a significant move.

Based on the market for trades over the past 12 months, (including players with more than 1 year of control), there are no major offers coming. GMs just value the cost controlled years for their own in-house top talent too much. And when teams do part with talent it's often below Double-A or the AA/AAA players are more complementary types. Teams would rather wait out Vladdy (and Bo) and just lose the draft/international $$$...

I believe part of the hold up with FAs right now is waiting for Sasaki to pick a team (FA compensation costs International $$$).

Also not looking to get political but I can't help and wonder if Canada has become less attractive to American-born players given the Rhetoric spewed about Canada's standing with the US. Trump has not cast Canada in a flattering light. Money talks, sure, but it may have to be even more than in the past.

18.5 mil for two years for a player in Pederson that didn't play an inning in the field last year is pretty steep.

Would've made more sense to keep Horwitz instead of investing so much room near the top of the luxury tax threshold to a one dimensional player.

Right now teams are super-valuing age and have been for awhile. Almost to a fetish level it seems. Thus Soto getting insane dollars given his talents (poor fielding, wonderful bat) vs someone like Ohtani who was a few years older but far more talented overall. Prospects being waaaaay overvalued by teams due to the crazy $ spread from minimum to star (Soto a total of about $81 mil for 6 seasons pre-free agency, peak of $31 mil last year, now $40+ per year every year for 15 years) - hoping to get that star for cheap while running through dozens of 'OK, that didn't work' cases.

So for the Jays the 'will this work' is Loperfido, Wagner, Orelvis, Jimenez, Clase, Schneider, Barger, Roden, McAdoo, Schreck, etc. with the 'great hope' being Arjun Nimmala (was Orelvis pre-PED case). Can't forget pitchers, but in the old spirit of TINSTAAPP I won't bother (cough Pearson, Tiedeman cough) Bloss is the obvious one though, along with Yesavage.

I expect to see those guys tossed at the wall in 2025 but odds are none will breakout, but we can dream. Will the Jays sign Teoscar? They seem serious but does he want to come back? Does he have many other options? Dodgers seem to have moved on, Yankees got Bellinger, Red Sox still appear to be in it. But Santander is also an option so those 2 players appear to have 2 teams after them, the question is who signs first and will the other guy be stuck with 1 suitor only?