BA highlights Pinango today...

A couple of years ago when I was consulting for a major league team, Pinango’s profile stuck out to me like a bright, shining light. He hit the ball really hard. He made a ton of contact. There was just one glaring problem: He wasn’t very good. He was repeating High-A, still couldn’t muster an OPS above .700 and had a wRC+ below 90. I checked in on him last year, and outside of some early-season dominance in his third try at High-A, he wasn’t great either, especially after being traded to the Blue Jays.

Sometimes, it takes a while for the performance to catch up to the metrics. In the long run, the metrics usually win out. This year, Pinango has finally put it all together, with an OPS pushing .900 and a wRC+ more than 50% better than the league average.

It’s not a flawless profile, as his average exit velocity on fly balls is significantly lower than his average exit velocity, and his average launch angle on hard-hit balls is well below average. The raw power is easily plus-plus, with limited chase and a pristine zone-contact rate against fastballs. Pinango’s early career struggles put some serious doubts in my head about the efficacy of metrics-based analysis, but his improvement has turned him from the exception that proves the rule to a stellar example of the importance of patience with prospects with plus-plus raw power and above-average bat-to-ball, no matter the on-field performance.

And RJ Schreck...

It’s only 98 pitches, so we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions, however, Schreck’s metrics are almost too good to be true. We have 16 tracked balls that he’s hit, and his average exit velocity on fly balls is elite. As are his launch angles, suggesting that, while his raw power may not be more than a 55, he might massively outperform that, as his best contact comes in the air.

The craziest part of all this is Schreck’s contact rate. Most batters with extreme launch angle profiles have major whiff issues. Not so with Schreck, who is posting plus contact rates in the early going along with plus-plus swing decisions. It seems unlikely to me that this is his true talent level, but a 98 pitch sample like this is more than enough to make him a very interesting follow as we accumulate more data.

And Will Robertson...

Robertson is a little older, but he’s found a new gear, posting some absurd metrics. His exit velocity suggests 70 raw power and 60 game power with average contact and plus swing decisions. More importantly, take a look at how much of an improvement this is compared to last season:

Not only has Robertson increased his launch angles by four degrees, he also hitting the ball 2-3 mph harder and is making considerably more contact, both in and out of zone. Two months ago, we highlighted three older prospects who developed a grade or two of power later in their careers. Robertson is yet another example of this phenomenon. The growing prevalence of “older” prospects adding significant power has led me to be less skeptical of these players and their potential to have an impact at the big league level. Robertson is an exciting prospect, and he may be a strong signal of good things happening within the Blue Jays’ player development organization.

Can't thank you enough for that content, Gerry.

First, because of the positive analysis of the Jays players.

Second, after years of trying hard, but mostly failing to improve player development, maybe the Jays have actually discovered similar magic beans that make orgs like the Dodgers so good.

Third, this is maybe the best analysis I've come across from BA, and not because of the positive takes. Always thought of BA as much inferior to FG, but if they are putting out content like this on a regular basis will think hard about subscribing to BA as well.

Thanks Gerry. It’s nice to get quality content about minor leaguers in the system. I hope the good news keeps coming, especially post draft.

I hope hypobole is right about the player development. It’s been the franchise’s biggest issue lately, so if they can start consistently churn out quality players, that will really change their outlook. For example, being more selective in FA instead of looking there to fill all your holes.

I’m excited for the deadline, and to read about the draft.

If you have a BA subscription there are large data charts attached to the analysis.

Johnny King pitched today in the FCL, four innings, six K's, 2 hits, one walk.

I noted King had 5 ground ball outs to zero air outs today and his season ratio is 3.6, quite an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Nice Gerry. that's some good content.

Not gonna lie though - Robertson's power jump at his age (as well as the look of his physique) make me worry a tad about PEDs. but probably not.

Robertson has always had power. He's just struggled at accessing it in games at times, because his contact rate hasn't been very good. But it's a primary reason they've kept him around despite his slash lines. His contact rate has jumped significantly this year, translating into more home runs.

If he was going from 5 HR to 30 HR, then sure, maybe there's a PED concern.

Asterisk = promoted
Double Asterisk = demoted


AAA

Excellers

OF Roden* (25): 83pa, 10.8b%, 8.4k%, .371bip, .361avg, .222iso, 178wrc+
OF Robertson* (27): 191pa, 16.8b%, 24.1k%, .330bip, .288avg, .295iso, 160wrc+
OF Schreck (24): 29pa, 10.3b%, 13.8k%, .222bip, .250avg, .292iso, 147wrc+
C Clarke (27): 62pa, 14.5b%, 9.7k%, .356bip, .327avg, .096iso, 139wrc+
IF Stefanic (29): 152pa, 14.5b%, 9.9k%, .358bip, .317avg, .065iso, 137wrc+
1B Tirotta (26): 196pa, 11.2b%, 30.1k%, .393bip, .287avg, .207iso, 131wrc+
CF Clase* (23): 106pa, 13.2b%, 23.6k%, .438bip, .315avg, .056iso, 127wrc+


Roden and Robertson fully deserved their promotions obviously. Great lines through and through. You'd think those lines would translate to at least solid MLB production but you never know.

Schreck's tiny sample line is pretty awesome, especially when you consider that low babip.

While the other 4 here have very nice lines, they're hole-y enough not to get too excited about.


Average

OF Loperfido (26): 244pa, 8.6b%, 23.0k%, .344bip, .270avg, .142iso, 111wrc+
1B Nunez (24): 171pa, 9.4b%, 23.4k%, .327bip, .265avg, .139iso, 105wrc+
UT Schneider* (26): 160pa, 15.0b%, 28.7k%, .310bip, .226avg, .165iso, 105wrc+
UT McCarty** (26): 28pa, 7.1b%, 28.6k%, .313bip, .240avg, .200iso, 104wrc+
IF Wagner (26): 40pa, 0.0b%, 12.5%, .273bip, .275avg, .225iso, 101wrc+
UT Barger* (25): 45pa, 11.1b%, 28.9k%, .250bip, .211avg, .211iso, 96wrc+
OF Pinango (23): 52pa, 13.5b%, 17.3k%, .152bip, .178avg, .244iso, 89wrc+
IF Rivera (24): 152pa, 15.1b%, 33.6k%, .347bip, .220avg, .110iso, 89wrc+
IF Martinez (23): 230pa, 10.4b%, 28.7k%, .252bip, .205avg, .195iso, 87wrc+
C Sanchez (28): 123pa, 8.1b%, 26.8k%, .284bip, .234avg, .153iso, 85wrc+

Nunez continues to put up a very solid line despite no game power, even though supposedly the raw power is a strength.

Nice to have Wagner back, and his line since his return is very good.

Pinango has dropped hard after a torrid start but that babip won't stay that low.

Orelvis can't seem to stay on track.


Strugglers

1B Palmegiani (25): 129pa, 13.2b%, 26.4k%, .209bip, .149avg, .079iso, 69wrc+
IF Jimenez (24): 24pa, 16.7b%, 25.0k%, .286bip, .200avg, .000iso, 63wrc+
C Brooks** (26): 11pa, 9.1b%, 18.2k%, .250bip, .200avg, .000iso, 37wrc+
C Bethancourt (33): 97pa, 7.2b%, 22.7k%, .127bip, .138avg, .161iso, 29wrc+
IF Kasevich (24): 0pa

Palmegiani looking like a drop when we're healthy.

Nice to have Jimenez back.


AA

Age-Appropriate

IF Paulino (22): 169pa, 8.3b%, 24.3k%, .324bip, .263avg, .204iso, 134wrc+
OF Martinez (22): 68pa, 13.2b%, 17.6k%, .239bip, .193avg, .070iso, 72wrc+
IF Harry (22): 124pa, 10.5b%, 25.8k%, .213bip, .165avg, .083iso, 56wrc+

Paulino really surging now. That's a very good line for his age. No urgency for a callup but he looks well on track for a deserved promotion to AAA next year.

Harry has completely collapsed unfortunately.


Slightly Old for Level

OF Pinango* (23): 192pa, 14.1b%, 21.9k%, .357bip, .298avg, .224iso, 170wrc+
C Gilliland** (23): 7pa, 14.3b%, 57.1k%, 1.000bip, .200avg, .200iso, 155wrc+
OF Bohrofen (23): 229pa, 10.9b%, 34.1k%, .313bip, .223avg, .198iso, 114wrc+
OF Brown (23): 115pa, 12.2b%, 27.0k%, .297bip, .216avg, .082iso, 90wrc+
C Stone (23): 29pa, 6.9b%, 13.8k%, .190bip, .192avg, .115iso, 76wrc+
IF McAdoo (23): 204pa, 6.9b%, 31.9k%, .292bip, .207avg, .112iso, 72wrc+
IF Dejesus (23): 92pa, 6.5b%, 38.0k%, .333bip, .200avg, .094iso, 58wrc+
C Sharp (23): 100pa, 5.0b%, 28.0k%, .267bip, .182avg, .023iso, 50wrc+

Bohrofen and Brown kinda hanging around but not looking too promising.

McAdoo has been better since his complex stint but still not nearly good enough.


Old for Level

OF Schreck* (24): 169pa, 15.4b%, 23.7k%, .311bip, .266avg, .252iso, 166wrc+
UT Doughty (24): 117pa, 6.0b%, 21.3k%, .373bip, .299avg, .103iso, 117wrc+
1B Williams (24): 223pa, 8.1b%, 30.9k%, .310bip, .228avg, .129iso, 89wrc+
IF Rivera* (24): 46pa, 6.5b%, 52.2k%, .333bip, .163avg, .093iso, 40wrc+

Doughty actually showing some signs of life, though it might just be a babip blip. Some power would be nice to see.


A+

Young for Level

IF Nimmala (19): 265pa, 10.6b%, 20.0k%, .304bip, .267avg, .216iso, 124wrc+

The slump continues for Nimmala. Still a very good line, but no need to promote him at this point.


Age Appropriate

OF Arias (21): 219pa, 11.9b%, 21.0k%, .362bip, .284avg, .137iso, 123wrc+
IF Coffey (21): 225pa, 10.2b%, 28.0k%, .359bip, .263avg, .136iso, 105wrc+

Arias good, but still not looking as good as last year.

Coffey holding his own nicely.


Slightly Old for Level

IF Pinto (22): 85pa, 9.4b%, 16.5k%, .264bip, .284avg, .324iso, 161wrc+
IF Harry* (22): 52pa, 9.6b%, 19.2k%, .314bip, .277avg, .213iso, 125wrc+
3B Keys (22): 241pa, 16.2b%, 24.1k%, .238bip, .198avg, .172iso, 101wrc+
C Parker (22): 203pa, 8.4b%, 20.2k%, .304bip, .258avg, .154iso, 100wrc+
OF Martinez* (22): 65pa, 10.8b%, 24.6k%, .333bip, .236avg, .073iso, 92wrc+
C Deschamps (22): 27pa, 7.4b%, 51.9k%, .375bip, .136avg, .000iso, 28wrc+

Not looking great for anyone here. Not disastrous either tho.


Old for Level

IF Goodwin (23): 173pa, 12.7b%, 18.5k%, .252bip, .245avg, .203iso, 123wrc+
OF Micheletti (23): 217pa, 18.0b%, 17.1k%, .202bip, .199avg, .199iso, 110wrc+
UT Orf (23): 78pa, 21.8b%, 25.6k%, .282bip, .186avg, .068iso, 97wrc+
C Gilliland (23): 35pa, 17.1b%, 42.9k%, .429bip, .222avg, .037iso, 75wrc+
C Stone* (23): 63pa, 6.3b%, 17.5k%, .222bip, .185avg, .074iso, 48wrc+

Micheletti with a line interesting enough to watch - just a babip correction from being a really good line.


A

Age Appropriate

OF Shaw (20): 195pa, 19.0b%, 20.5k%, .355bip, .284avg, .161iso, 153wrc+
UT Chirinos (20): 193pa, 10.4b%, 27.5k%, .327bip, .242avg, .103iso, 96wrc+
OF Joseph (20): 154pa, 1.9b%, 20.8k%, .275bip, .236avg, .167iso, 90wrc+

Shaw looking primo.

The other two not great but decent.


Slightly Old for Level

OF Munoz (21): 71pa, 9.9b%, 29.6k%, .417bip, .323avg, .323iso, 186wrc+
C Duran (21): 216pa, 10.6b%, 20.8k%, .368bip, .297avg, .170iso, 142wrc+
IF Toman (21): 196pa, 8.7b%, 27.6k%, .373bip, .270avg, .121iso, 111wrc+
IF Beltre (21): 235pa, 11.1b%, 14.0k%, .302bip, .262avg, .087iso, 104wrc+
OF Aponte (21): 195pa, 6.7b%, 31.8k%, .306bip, .225avg, .174iso, 92wrc+

Duran continues to look like a guy in need of promotion asap.

Stunningly, Toman seems to be finally making a bit of a move here. Hopefully not just a babip thing.


Old for Level

IF Freethy (22): 103pa, 21.4b%, 22.3k%, .309bip, .231avg, .154iso, 133wrc+
C Tibbitts (22): 82pa, 12.2b%, 29.3k%, .326bip, .246avg, .200iso, 121wrc+
IF Rodriguez (22): 60pa, 18.3b%, 21.7k%, .314bip, .229avg, .104iso, 115wrc+
OF Hernandez (22): 100pa, 16.0b%, 22.0k%, .288bip, .229avg, .133iso, 112wrc+

all good enough lines to be bumped a level, but nothing to write home about at their age.

Pinango, Schreck, Clase, Batista, and Paulino for a bunch of expiring non impact players was quite a trade deadline. Even if none of them pan out, they are interesting enough to have some upside and/or future trade value.

I'd add Wagner in that group and agree that that's a pretty sweet trade deadline.

And I still have some hope for the likes of Bloss and Coffey too.

Happy to see BA noticing Robertson, and contra my pessimism about the outfield logjam, really happy to see him make the big-league club, if only for a few games.

The willingness of the team to add Robertson to the 40 rather than call up Loperfido makes me a little optimistic that they'll weigh performance more highly when it comes to sorting out the bullpen once guys are back from injury.

The Athletic has a story on Yeasavage today. One passage I found interesting re: his development:

"Meeting promotions with continued brilliance, the Blue Jays turned to more specific challenges for the 21-year-old. Work the curveball in more, a fourth pitch Toronto sees real potential in. Start reading bats and altering pitch sequences to keep batters guessing. Limit the walks, increase efficiency. How deep can you get on just 85 pitches? What about 80?"

I just noticed that Palmegiani is on the "Development List".

Anyone know when that happened? and what do we think it means for him?

ah looks like it happened 3 days ago. i wonder if they actually think there's something to fix there or if they're just buying time.

The development list is often the new phantom IL.

@Mathesond - great passage. It's a good reminder that while we are here reading stat lines, development is a bigger process that goes well beyond the numbers.

Guess today showed the value of 6 OF'ers - needed nearly all of them. 6 guys in the OF plus an OF as DH. So if Shreck is coming up who goes down or on the IL? Clase might go on the IL, Roden might go back down (540 OPS and the manager clearly doesn't trust him much). Robertson is 1-6 so far with a walk and 4 K's. Any of Roden or Robertson going down, or Clase or Straw going on the IL would make sense. As would Clase going down even (down to a 561 OPS).

Alek Manoah (Tommy John) threw his second live BP in Florida on Tuesday. He threw 21 pitches; fastball was up to 94 mph.

Manoah will continue extending his pitch and inning count in live BP settings before returning to games.

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) June 17, 2025

I'd send Clase down and let him get some good mojo going again.