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Hey, we've cleared 200 comments with two games left to play. And I've been playing with the database. I blame Trey Yescavage.

It used to be a fairly simple matter to just copy and paste the pitcher's line from bb-ref into an Excel spreadsheet (with an intervening stop in Notepad to get rid of all the program codes). But it had been a couple of years since I had tended to my record of Every Start Ever Made by a Blue Jays pitcher, and to my extreme annoyance I discovered bb-ref had moved the location of a couple of columns. This complicated matters greatly, along with the occasional appearance of IR and IS columns for those pitchers who also moonlight as relievers. I also discovered I had somehow missed one game along the way (it turned to have been from August 1985). So many challenges. 

But like Inspector Clouseau, I accept the challenge. I got 'em all now. Here are the 52 times a Blue Jays pitcher made his first career appearance starting for Our Gang, ranked by Game Score. As many suspected, Mauro Gozzo still leads the way. But Yescavage does crack the Top Ten.

                              Date         Opp    Rslt    IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO  HBP   BF   Pit   GSc  Dec
                                                                            
1    Mauro Gozzo    08-Aug    1989    TEX    W,7-0    8    3  0   0  0   3  4  0    28   108    77 W
2    Alek Manoah    27 May   2021  @ NYY    W,2-0    6    2  0   0  0   2  7  0    22    88    73 W
3    Trent Thornton    31-Mar    2019    DET    L,3-4    5    2  0   0  0   0  8  0    17    75    71
4    Brandon Lyon    04-Aug    2001    BAL    W,2-1    7.1  4  1   1  0   1  5  0    27   101    70 W
5    Jesse Litsch    15-May    2007    BAL    W,2-1    8.2  4  1   1  0   3  1  0    30    99    70 W
6    Marc Rzepczynski  07-Jul    2009  @ TBR    L,1-3    6    2  1   1  0   4  7  0    24   105   67
7    Jerry Garvin    10-Apr    1977    CHW    W,3-1    8    5  1   1  0   4  2  0    33        66 W
8    Nate Pearson    29-Jul    2020  @ WSN    L,0-4    5    2  0   0  0   2  5  0    19    75    66
9    Trey Yesavage    15-Sep    2025  @ TBR    W, 2-1   5    3  1   1  0   2  9  0    20    69    64
10    Butch Edge    13-Aug    1979  @ OAK    W,4-2    6.2  6  1   1  0   2  6  0    29        62 W
                                                                            
11    Dustin McGowan    30-Jul    2005    TEX    L,2-3    5    2  1   1  0   3  6  1    21    91    62
12    Dave Bush      02-Jul    2004  @ MON    L,0-2    5.2  4  1   1  0   1  4  0    22    93    60 L
13    Brett Cecil    05-May    2009    CLE    W,10-6   6    6  2   1  0   0   6  3    25    96    60
14    Zach Stewart    16-Jun    2011    BAL    L,3-4    7    7  2   2  1   1  4  1    27    86    58
15    Anthony Kay    07-Sep    2019  @ TBR    L,3-5    5.2  4  2   2  0   3  8  1    24    92    58
16    Thomas Hatch    26-Jul    2020  @ TBR    L,5-6    2.1  0  0   0  0   2  3  0    9    47   58
17    Phil Huffman    10-Apr    1979  @ CHW    W,10-2   6    7  1   1  0   0  3  0    25          57 W
18    Gustavo Chacin    20-Sep    2004  @ NYY    W,6-3    7    4  3   3  0   3  2  1    27    98    56 W
19    Chris Rowley    12-Aug    2017    PIT    W,7-2    5.1  5  1   1  0   1  3  0    22    75    56 W
20    Alex Sanchez    23-May    1989    MIN    W,2-1    6    5  1   1  0   5  1  0    26    97    54
                                                                           
21    Ricky Romero    09-Apr    2009    DET    W,6-2    6    7  2   2  1   2  5  1    25    93    53 W
22    Yariel Rodriguez  13-Apr    2024    COL    W,5-3    3.2  4  1   1  1   2  6  0    16    68    53
23    David Purcey    18-Apr    2008    DET    L,4-8    4.1  2  1   1  0   7  3  0    22    86    51
24    Ryan Borucki    26-Jun    2018  @ HOU    L,0-7    6    6  2   2  0   4  3  0    27    95    51 L
25    Robert Ray    02-May    2009    BAL    W,5-4    5.2  4  3   3  1   4  2  1    25    90    47
26    Matt Boyd    27-Jun    2015    TEX    L,0-4    6.2  9  4   4  3   0  7  0    29  103   47 L
27    Scott Brow    28-Apr    1993    KCR    L,3-5    6    5  4   4  0   2  2  0    25  101   46 L
28    Scott Richmond    30-Jul    2008    TBR    L,2-3    5.1  7  3   3  1   0  4  0    22    92    46 L
29    Ty Taubenheim    20-May    2006  @ COL    L,1-5    5    5  3   3  1   3  3  2    25    86    45 L
30    Jeff Byrd    20-Jun    1977    CLE    L,5-8    5    5  3   3  0   5  4  0    25          44
                                                                            
31    Denis Boucher    12-Apr    1991    MIL    W,5-4    5.1  5  4   3  2   1  1  0    22    85    44
32    Roy Halladay    20-Sep    1998  @ TBD    W,7-5    5    8  3   2  1   2  5  0    24    93    44
33    Kyle Drabek    15-Sep    2010  @ BAL    L,1-3    6    9  3   3  0   3  5  0    26    88    44 L
34    Henderson Alvarez  10-Aug    2011    OAK    W,8-4    5.2  8  3   3  1   1  4  1    27  104   44
35    Casey Janssen    27-Apr    2006    BAL    L,5-7    4    3  3   2  0   3  0  2    20    95    43 L
36    Sean Reid-Foley    13-Aug    2018  @ KCR    L,1-3    5    6  3   3  1   3  3  0    22    97    43 L
37    Dave Stieb    29 Jun   1979  @ BAL    L,1-6    6    6  6   5  2   2  5  0    26        41 L
38    Luis Leal    25-May    1980    NYY    W,9-6    7.2 12  3   3  1   4  0  0    33        39 W
39    Juan Guzman    07-Jun    1991  @ BAL    L,4-6    4.2  6  4   4  0   3  5  0    23    94    38 L
40    Matt Williams    02 Aug   1983    NYY    W,13-6  5    5  5   5  3   4  3  1    25        36 W
                                                                            
41    Mark Eichhorn    30-Aug    1982    BAL    L,3-6    4.2  6  5   5  1   3  5  0    23        34 L
42    Pasqual Coco    17-Jul    2000    NYM    L,5-7    4    5  4   4  1   5  2  1    23    95    33
43    Drew Hutchison    21-Apr    2012  @ KCR    W,9-5    5.1  8  5   5  2   3   4  1    26    99    33 W
44    Mike Smith    26-Apr    2002  @ ANA    L,0-4    4    7  4   4  0   2  1  2    23    83    31 L
45    Brad Mills    18-Jun    2009  @ PHI    W,8-7    3.2  6  4   4  2   4  2  0    20    94    31
46    David Wells    30-Jun    1987    NYY    L,0-4    4    9  4   4  0   2  4  0    22        30 L
47    Giovanni Carrara   29-Jul    1995    OAK    W,18-11  5    7  5   5  1   5   2  0    26   100   30 W
48    Mike Darr    06-Sep    1977    BOS    L,2-11  1.1  3  5   5  1   4  1  1    12          25 L
49    Jim Clancy    26-Jul    1977    TEX    L,0-14  2    5  5   5  0   3  1  0    13        24 L
50    Chris Carpenter    12-May    1997  @ MIN    L,2-12  3    8  7   5  0   3   5  0    21    78    21 L
                                                                            
51    Sean Nolin    24-May    2013    BAL    L,6-10  1.1  7  6   6  1   1  0  0    11    35    15 L
52    Jeff Ware    02-Sep    1995  @ CHW    L,4-10  1.1  7  7   6  0   3  1  0    14    60    12 L

I have lots of random information I can pass along!

The highest scoring start ever? Brandon Morrow's one-hitter with 17 Ks in August 2010, the only start in team history with a Game Score of 100. There have been another 30 that scored better than 90, by: Dave Stieb (5), Roy Halladay (5), Jimmy Key (3), Jim Clancy (2), Roger Clemens (2), Jesse Jefferson, Pat Hentgen, Ted Lilly, Dave Bush, Dustin McGowan, Jim Gott, Luis Leal, Kevin Gausman, Todd Stottlemyre, Esteban Loaiza, Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada, Alek Manoah.)

The worst ever? When David Wells took one for the team against Milwaukee in August 1992, allowing 13 earned runs in 4.1, for a Game Score of -14, one of five starts with a negative Game Score (responsible for the others? Brian Tallet, Edwin Jackson, Dave Stewart, and Roy Halladay.)

Most pitches thrown in a game? Roger Clemens threw 149 pitches against Oakland in May 1998; he cleared 140 pitches two more times while he was here, as did Jack Morris, David Cone, and Jimmy Key. 

Of course, we only have Pitch Counts from around 1988 and after, and I'm sure there were some larger ones before. In May 1980, Dave Stieb started against Oakland - he went 12 innings and faced 49 batters, the most ever by a Jays pitcher. Jesse Jefferson also made a 12 inning start in 1978. 

A Jays starter has faced at least 40 hitters in a game on 22 occasions, but it hasn't happened since Chris Carpenter - in just 5 innings - in June 2001. 

The shortest start? That was Brandon Morrow, forced out of the game with a back problem after facing one Washington batter in June 2012. He would miss the next two months. I just checked the thread - there was some discussion about who had the brightest future: Bryce Harper (still a teenager), Mike Trout (just 20 years old), or Brett Lawrie. 

Those were the days. Anyway....

Holy cow. Two in a row in Tampa? This is... different.
Toronto at Tampa Bay, September 15-18, Part 2 | 88 comments | Create New Account
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#468442) #
Thing is Yesavage would easily climb that chart if they had let him go another inning or two, which they easily could have.

then again, if you adjust for IP and pitch count, that Trent Thornton start still comes out on top. And I never want to hear nice things about Trent Thornton.

But I would want to add in age and something like "swinging misses" to the gamescore there, and i'm pretty sure that would push Yesavage right on up near the top.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#468444) #
Perhaps it would help everyone if they specified which Jeff Hoffman they are referring to. When I advocate for having him on the roster I am referring to the "elite" Jeff Hoffman who carried the bullpen for a long time. You know, that guy who was locating his FB at 97-97 MPH and locating all of his pitchers, clearing out opposing line ups on 20 pitches or less to close out games.

I would even be okay with "good" Jeff Hoffman who had a harder time locating his FB and sometimes didn't have his secondary pitches but was still pumping 96 MPH.

I am not advocating for bad Jeff Hoffman who is the version with a FB under 95 MPH, little to no feel for his off speed pitches and inability to locate the FB anyway.

It's easy for all of us to argue when one poster is referring to elite Jeff Hoffman and another bad Jeff Hoffman. It's like arguing the character of Dr. Jekyll and Mr .Hyde and I don't mean Brandon.

When we talk of Hoffman needing rest it's clearly to try to get the Jekyll version back. When others talk of Hoffman being bad they are clearly referring to Mr. Hyde version. Of course there are some who will want to even out the numbers and paint the picture as one, which I don't think is fair to the pitcher.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#468445) #
The timing on Yesavage's pull was excellent. There was little reason to have him start throwing high stress pitches with a runner on base down 1-0. The bullpen was very fresh, and you want to let the kid walk off the mound on a high note.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#468446) #
Had some thoughts about Hoffman that I wanted to investigate....not sure of any conclusions here, but wanted to see the numbers...


Hoffman by Month

APR: 15.1ip, 29era-, 36fip-, 36xfip-
MAY: 10.0ip, 330era-, 205fip-, 98xfip-
JUN: 10.0ip, 44era-, 102fip-, 85xfip-
JUL: 10.0ip, 110era-, 87fip-, 67xfip-
AUG: 12.0ip, 147era-, 181fip-, 125xfip-
SEP: 6.2ip, 33era-, 102fip-, 101xfip-


Like April is the only actual good month. In no other month has he been closer-worthy imo.


by Leverage

LOW: 22.2ip, 5.09fip, 3.28xfip
MID: 18.0ip, 4.15fip, 2.97xfip
HIGH: 23.1ip, 5.08fip, 4.01xfip

not even sure it's a leverage thing tbh.





Gregg (32): 59.0ip, 84era-, 85fip-, 97xfip-, 0.9war65
Francisco (31): 50.2ip, 85era-, 92fip-, 83xfip-, 0.7war65
Batista (34): 71.0ip, 92era-, 98fip-, 98xfip-, 0.4war65
Koch (26): 69.3ip, 105era-, 100fip-, ???xfip-, 0.2war65
Janssen (32): 45.7ip, 102era-, 108fip-, 111xfip-, 0.2war65
Hoffman (32): 64.0ip, 113era-, 113fip-, 81xfip-, -0.3war65
Politte (29): 49.3ip, 121era-, 119fip-, 102xfip-, -0.4war65
Rauch (32): 52.0ip, 116era-, 127fip-, 113xfip-, -0.4war65


IIRC these were all the "disaster closer" seasons where we had no choice but to dump all these guys the next season.



I'm not saying we have to ditch Hoffman, or that he's not salvageable, but we should be clear-eyed about how bad he's been imo.
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#468447) #
Of the 52 pitchers who have debuted in the MLB as a SP with the Jays, I had never heard of 3: Mauro Gozzo '89 (until commenters started comparing him to Trey this week), Mike Darr '77 & Butch Edge '79.

I see that Mike Darr's start was a la Moonlight Graham, his only 4 outs being his only MLB appearance. Similar with Edge, as his 9 starts that year were his solitary MLB year.

What also stands out with this anecdotal debut game log data is how much K rates have increased.

- Jesse Litsch in'09 debuted with 8 2/3 of 1 run ball, but with only one K.
- Gustavo Chacin's magical rookie year started with 7 innings but only 2 Ks in '04 with a 6-3 win.
- Luis Leal in '80 pitched 7 2/3 with 12 hits and no Ks whatsover.

Obviously so cherrypicked examples. But also telling that it took until Scrabble in 2009 to be the first Jays pitcher to ever rack up 7 Ks in a SP debut.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#468448) #
not saying they shouldn't have pulled him 92-92 just that they could easily have kept him in and likely improved his rank on that debut gamescore ranking there.

obviously, there's zero reason for them to care about his rebut gamescore ranking.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#468449) #
You booed the decision in the last thread and brought it up again here, so a response felt appropriate. It was well managed by Schneider.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#468450) #
Hoffman:

April: 0.7 WAR, 15.1 IP, 1.17 ERA, 1.32 FIP, 12.91 K/9, 0.59 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9, 97 mph (velo)

Since May: -1.0 WAR, 48.2 IP, 5.73 ERA, 5.92 FIP, 11.28 K/9, 4.07 BB/9, 2.64 HR/9, 96.2 mph (velo)

Hoffman has only been elite Hoffman for 1 month this season. Otherwise he's been one of the worst relievers in baseball. The -1.0 WAR comes in practically all high leverage situations so it's even more painful.

The Jays usage of Hoffman is staggering. He has zero history as a closer, and while he got a big money contract this winter, it's hardly enough to justify stubbornly keeping him in the closer role despite performance suggesting that a change would help. They are ready to rest their playoff fate on Hoffman, and I don't get it.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#468451) #
it was a lighthearted boo for taking my fun away.

and obviously i don't think management should ever be thinking about how his debut ranks historically.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#468452) #
Is 3/33 even big money anymore? The Cardinals gave Cecil 4/30 in 2017. The Jays have no business using Hoffman as the closer because of his contract. It would be like keeping Green in the setup role for the same reason.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#468453) #
Andres Gimenez has 10 put outs and 19 assists at SS and already has 3 OAA. Obviously, small sample sizes on defense aren't very good but wow.


About Hoffman. If his fastball is good, he's a very good pitcher. When it's not, he's a bad pitcher. Yesterday, Jays had no choice because he was last man in pen but really wish the team could see how his stuff was in pen and decide if he doesn't have it to go in a different direction. Jays definitely have abused him this year and I think this is the price of that. Would love to see him pitch maybe 3/4 more times rest of the year instead of the Jays getting him up to every time it's close late in games.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#468454) #
That top ten is not very predictive. There is not a star among them.

Even if you stretch it out to top 20 its not great.

Question for Magpie, who had the best career as a starter among those top 20 (I know a couple are still in progress so say 18 out of 20)? Could it be the perfume king, Gustavo Chacin?
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#468455) #
In the last thread there was a comment about not many teams winning the World Serieswith a regular player with a 70 wRC+. The First person I thought of was Mark Belanger. Looking it up, the Orioles won in 2070 and Belanger had a wRC+ of 61. Of course, Belanger won a Gold Glove 8 different years and, ironically, 2070 was not one of them.
ayjackson - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#468456) #
Looking forward to Yesavage's second start rivaling Doc's and requiring another data table.

Maybe they'll rebuild his delivery over the winter!
Cracka - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#468458) #
I still find it rather shocking that Hoffman was the last available arm for yesterday's game, despite having 14 pitchers on the roster. It would have been an ugly moment if they needed to use Heineman in extra innings. I think it's time to end the six-man rotation, although there's no easy way to do so. A pitcher placed on the IL today would still be available for the ALDS; Berrios is an obvious candidate, except that he's never missed a start in his career...

Regardless, we'll only need four starters in the playoffs, so now would be a good time to figure this out and transition the two odd guys out to new roles. I won't be surprised to see a fresh arm added for tonight's game, but would hate to see them sacrifice Fisher again to enable this.
Eephus - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#468459) #
Was genuinely surprised and impressed with how many of these debuts I vividly remember (at least, the ones I have a chance to remember and weren't a decade before I was born). The Jesse Litsch Game is still the most unique: I hadn't even heard of Litsch when I arrived at the ballpark that evening (probably wasn't following the minors too closely that season) and up from behind home plate in the 500s we watched the doughy lad nearly spin a complete game (I think Jeremy Accardo came in to seal the win? It was a close one I recall, 2-1 or 2-0 something like that). 

I was also in the house for Ricky Romero's debut (just down the first base line!) and I'd definitely heard of him... not to mention the lanky hurler for the Tigers also making his first big league start, Rick Porcello. Dave Bush is another memorable one... the 2004 season (from Hell of course) had so few wrinkles of light and joy, leading our hopes upon Bush to become all that heavier. While it was against the Expos (their last year of existence I believe) wasn't this around the time they were playing some home games at Hiram Bithorn in Puerto Rico? I recall that being where Bush debuted, not Olympic Stadium. 

Others I have vague recollections. Manoah's was pretty exciting in Yankee Stadium, Nate Pearson's likewise (think I was listening on the radio), while I remember Matt Boyd's second big league start much more than the first (unfortunately for Boyd). I couldn't help but notice David Purcey walking seven in his debut, sadly an accurate omen of things to come in that particular career...    
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#468460) #
Question for Magpie, who had the best career as a starter among those top 20

Dave Bush, I would think. And then Litsch and Chacin. Brandon Lyon and Brett Cecil may have had the best careers, but mostly as relievers.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#468461) #
IIRC these were all the "disaster closer" seasons where we had no choice but to dump all these guys the next season.

Ahhh, I dunno. I probably have a different view of the job than most people. But my idea of a disaster closer was Roberto Osuna, with 10 Blown Saves in 2017. He may have had a better ERA and ERA+ than Kevin Gregg, but what's that worth? Gregg was better at Closing the Game.

Anyway, of the guys you mentioned, Gregg, Batista, Janssen, Rauch and Francisco all became free agents and all had no problem at all finding new teams. No one had to take a pay cut, most of them got a raise. I think Politte had to settle for a minor league deal after his awful 2003 but even he had a very nice bounce-back year with the 2005 White Sox. Billy Koch was the one guy they got rid of - he had enough Magic Closer Dust to fetch a nice prospect in a trade (Eric Hinske)
Katie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#468462) #
I wouldn't necessarily call it ironic that Mark Belanger won Gold Gloves in 1969, 1971 and 1973-1978, but not 2070. :)
John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#468463) #
Just looking at his BR page and see that Hoffman has sOPS+ of 129 with 0 days rest, 7 with 1 day rest, 241 with 2 days rest. All with 50+ PA. Smaller samples (20-29 PA) for 3 days (91), 4 days (82), and 5+ days (115). All of which is to say I think having him go 1 day, take a day off, pitch the next going forward might be a good idea. For the playoffs if they are #1 or #2 in the AL (and win the East) they get a 4 day break, then 2 then day off, game, day off, game (if it goes all 5). So lots of rest in round 1, just 1 chance of back to back games.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#468464) #
just to see if any SP particularly suit the reliever role, maybe.


SPs, first time through order:


Gausman: 67.1ip, 25.7k%, 6.1b%, .259woba, 2.67era, 3.61fip, 3.54xfip
Lauer: 33.0ip, 25.9k%, 5.2b%, .326woba, 2.45era, 4.42fip, 3.67xfip
Berrios: 66.1ip, 24.4k%, 8.1b%, .302woba, 3.12era, 3.86fip, 3.98xfip
Bassitt: 65.0ip, 24.8k%, 6.3b%, .310woba, 3.60era, 4.30fip, 3.67xfip
Scherzer: 33.2ip, 23.7l%, 5.2b%, 290woba, 4.01era, 3.89fip, 4.61xfip
Bieber: 10.2ip, 22.2k%, 2.2b%, .372woba, 5.91era, 5.49fip, 3.28xfip


and that's a full time through the order - something relievers rarely come close to doing. I'm assuming the numbers look even better to just the first few hitters.


But the numbers actually seem pretty helpful - Lauer, Berrios, Bassitt all seem to have given us reason to believe they'd be effective in the pen this year, while Scherzer and Bieber haven't.

Gausman is great of course but that's irrelevant obviously.


SP: Gausman Bieber Yesavage Scherzer

RP: Lauer Berrios Bassitt
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#468465) #
My mind slipped a cog in my Mark Belanger post. It was 1970, not 2070, unless I'm predicting an Oriole victory in the distant future.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#468466) #
Davis hitting 2nd and playing 2B tonight.

I'm intrigued.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#468467) #
tonight shows an interesting tweak vs the LHP - to get France in the lineup, Springer plays the OF with Barger, Schneider moves to 2B.

If this becomes a regular tactic I'm a happy man.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#468468) #
I don't think it's smart messing with Springer at DH, and don't really see the upside here.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#468469) #
My mind slipped a cog in my Mark Belanger post.

It happens to us all.

Fifty years ago, you needed a shortstop like Mark Belanger. As I keep saying, if fewer balls are put in play - and that's the modern game - defense is simply not as important as it was. In the Days of Yore. The land I come from!

It's not irrelevant. It still matters. Just not as much as it used to.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#468470) #
Jays are in a place where it's good to try out different lineups and configurations and give some guys days off.. Gimenez can't hit lefties at all. IKF and France haven't played in a bit. It's good.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#468471) #
"and that's a full time through the order - something relievers rarely come close to doing. I'm assuming the numbers look even better to just the first few hitters."

I assume the opposite. The first few hitters are usually the best hitters. The 1st inning is highest scoring inning, because that is the only inning the pitcher is guaranteed to face the best hitters. Conversely, the 2nd inning is usually much lower scoring, because now the starter is facing the bottom of the lineup.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#468472) #
fair point.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#468473) #
I've never been one to buy the thing about defensive position effecting a player's hitting much. Never seen any good evidence for it.

But obviously some defensive positions are more physically taxing than others, and of course DH isn't taxing at all.

So i get using 35yr old Springer as DH all year to save his body, but i don't think it has any impact on his actual hitting aside from being better rested in general.

at this point of the season, though, the wear and tear argument kinda goes away - a successful playoffs run is only 10-15gms long, with plenty of days off in between.

and not that i actually would read into these numbers anyways, but for record, this is how Springer has done as a DH/PH this year vs how he's done in the field:

DH/PH: 330pa, 168wrc+
Fielder: 208pa, 148wrc+




SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#468474) #
Giving Vlad a DH day during a long stretch with no off days is a good idea. That means either benching Springer or playing him on the OF. I tend to agree that Springer should stay at DH most of the time, which will force an interesting decision if Bo comes back during the playoffs and can’t play the field, but the occasional OF day is likely unavoidable.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#468475) #
but there's no decision to be made there - if Bo can only DH then obviously he'll DH and Springer will field.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#468476) #
I’d rather just give Vladdy a day off. They are in a fantastic position to do so.

But really, none of this matters too much. If they think Bichette might come back and DH, it helps giving Springer some more looks out in the outfield.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#468477) #
I think it is good to keep Springer fresh in the OF just in case he is needed out there (Santander returns, Vlad gets sore knees, Bo returns but can't play at SS).

Due to the days off the playoffs are a different creature. If we assume the Jays win the East and get a bye (very likely right now)...
  • Round 1 is Game-game-off-game-off-game
  • Round 2 & WS are Game-game-off-game-game-game-off-game-game
Hoffman is best with 1 day off so he can be used a LOT with that day off (3 times in round 1, 4 in rounds 2 and 3) with only a few cases of 2 in a row and just 2 cases where 3 in a row is possible.

Starters would be 1-2-off-3-4-off-1 then (if max of 5 played) off-2-3-off-1-4-2-off-3-1 (if all 7 played) off-2-4-off-1-3-2-off-4-1 potentially. So max games every round means your #1 gets 6 starts including the deciding game of each series without ever having under 4 days of rest (normal regular season rest). If you never need that final game then it gets easier. But that max all around gives your #2 guy 5 starts (available in game 7 of the WS), #3 4 starts (often with extra rest), #4 4 starts (2 in WS, 1 each in ALCS & ALDS). So Gausman & Bieber get lots of starts, whoever #3 is and #4 would get just a few each and be skipped if any round goes less than the max.

So if...
  • ALDS goes 3 or 4, ALCS is 1-2-off-3-4-1-off-2-3, WS is off-1-4-off-2-3-1-off-4-2
  • ALCS goes 4 or 5 - full reset to 1-2-off-3-4-1-off-2-3 for WS
  • ALCS goes 6, ALDS goes 5 - WS is full reset as above
  • ALCS goes 6, ALDS goes 3 or 4: WS is 1-3-off-2-4-1-off-3-2 with #1 in the pen for game 7.
I think that pretty much covers it if you want to maximize how often your best starters go throughout and try to keep #1 on 4 days rest.
JohnL - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#468478) #
My memories of two of those great debuts:

Litsch: I think he took over Halladay’s spot when he went down with appendicitis. As I remember, it was a very Doc-like start. Few pitches, quick game, lots of ground balls.

Manoah: He was impressive, but so was his mother in the stands. Standing, waving, yelling. After the 6th, Dan suggested he probably was done for the day. Buck: “You’re right. I don’t think his mom could take another inning.”
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#468479) #
Springer has been DH for 60% of his playing time this year.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#468480) #
Litsch: I think he took over Halladay’s spot when he went down with appendicitis.

OMG, that's right! The Zambrano Era! Ten days in May I've done my best to forget.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#468481) #
So I looked up Bush, Litsch and Chacin.

Bush made 187 starts, Litsch 67 and Chacin 58.

The career WAR numbers from BRef (these are totals including relief): Bush 4.2; Litsch 4.0; Chacin 4.0

Litsch and Chacin gain from one excellent season. Litsch had 1.0 WAR in 2007 and 2.5 in 2008 and just made 19 starts after 2008. Chacin put up 3.2 WAR in 2005 and made just 22 starts after that.

Bush got up to 7.3 WAR by 2008 but then had 3.1 of negative WAR over his last three seasons. I was tempted to say he should have quit while he was ahead but he earned $9M over those last three seasons.
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#468482) #

Jesse Litsch is always my reminder that there's no such thing as a No Risk medical procedure, no matter how routine or minor.

Litsch suffered a setback with his injured right shoulder early in 2012 training camp, and was shut down because of inflammation. He visited surgeon Dr. James Andrews for a full diagnosis that confirmed the inflammation and didn't find any structural damage. Litsch received a platelet-rich plasmas (PRP) injection to help with the healing process. The injection caused an unexpected serious infection, and Litsch was not allowed to throw for six weeks after undergoing emergency surgery.[13] The infection sidelined him for the entire 2012 season.

On October 10, 2012, the Blue Jays announced that Litsch was coming off the 60-day disabled list, but had chosen free agency over an assignment to their Triple-A affiliate Buffalo Bisons.[14] In December 2012, it was reported that Litsch was awaiting bone-graft and cartilage replacement surgery from a donor cadaver, and his career was in serious jeopardy.[15] The surgery was performed on January 17, 2013, and Litsch was reported to be hopeful to pitch winter ball in late 2013.[16]

On August 21, 2014, Litsch announced his retirement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Litsch#2011%E2%80%93retirement

In both sports medicine & IRL, we are often too cavalier in using something sharp to inject concoctions into joints, sometimes with nebulous reasons. It's rare that infections happen inside joints because we have punctured their sterile integrity. But when it does occur, it's a medical emergency & often life-altering & devastating.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#468483) #
2-2 Yankees-Twins. Minnesota just blew a good scoring opportunity: Buxton on second and Martin on first with none out.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#468484) #
Tampa is where baseball goes to die.

Terrible stuff, but hopefully we squeeze out at last one more win before leaving this dreadful place.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#468485) #
yankees busted it open 7-2....

....but are in the process of choking away another lead, now 7-5 with 2 runners on.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#468486) #
pinch hitting for Schneider with guys worse than him vRHP is never not funny.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#468487) #
It was nice being back at .500 after thirty years. Short, but still sweet.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#468488) #
little niggling things bug me in a one run loss.

pinch hitting for schneider. favoring Rodriguez over nance. little things that probably don't matter much but might.


Tigers lose. Red Sox off to extras. Yankees up 3 top-8th. SEA and HOU keep rolling.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#468489) #
Oh well, at least the bullpen got some rest. Go back and win tomorrow.
scottt - Wednesday, September 17 2025 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#468490) #
There is a huge mental component to hitting.
Hitting DH is just a different routine.
Michael - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#468491) #
Yeah, while you'd think DH can rest so should hit better than playing in the field since you can rest and concentrate on pitching, I think most players hit worse as DH than as fielder (by about 14 points of wOBA or 6 runs per 500 PA).
Jonny German - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#468492) #
Wednesday September 7: Detroit and Seattle lose.

Magic numbers for the Jays to finish ahead of the other top AL teams:

6 Detroit
6 New York
4 Boston
4 Seattle
5 Houston

10 games remaining for all but Houston, who have 9.
hypobole - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#468493) #
On the broadcast a few days ago, i believe it was Dan who pointed out George himself attributed DH'ing as a reason he's hit so well this season.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#468494) #
Springer has been elite this year regardless of whether he's been at DH or in the field. And he's been in the field for 40% of his playing time this year.

IMO this really isn't an issue. Keeping him healthy was very important so that's great. But come playoffs time you're getting an offday after every game anyways.

The only real question is whether his fielding is a liability or not compared to other options.

of note, Santander has been playing in the OF for buffalo, or at least was yesterday.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#468495) #
Santander 2025 (AAA): .182/.308/.364 (30 PA) / wRC+ 84
92-93 - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#468496) #
Springer has been DH basically 80% of the time since the All-Star break (and probably longer since Santander went down and Barger established himself). I don't see any reason to change that other than to get Bo in the lineup, and certainly not for France.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#468497) #
I really like the lineup for today, Barger, Giminez, Clement and Guerrero is a really strong defensive infield and it's good to see Varsho back in the field. Three wins out of four would be a terrific result against a team where Jay's hopes usually go to die.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#468498) #
Needing the DH spot for a Bichette or Santander is a pretty big reason to want to consider playing Springer slightly more in the field than he has already been playing, i would think.

92-93 - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#468499) #
Santander hasn't shown a single thing all season to suggest that's the case though. He has 4 games left to do so.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#468500) #
Sportsnet PR
@SportsnetPR
·
2m
🚨
@Sportsnet
& AppleTV with MLB have agreed to simulcast Friday night’s
@BlueJays
game vs. Kansas City, so all fans can watch wherever they choose. Following Blue Jays Central at 7pm ET, Sportsnet will air AppleTV’s production of the game.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#468501) #
Reliever Leverage when Entering the Game (i.e. how the manager deploys them by leverage):



Full Season:

1. Hoffman 1.78
2. Little 1.39
3. Dominguez 1.38
4. Varland 1.24
5. Rodriguez 1.04
6. Fisher 0.93
7. Nance 0.84
8. Lauer 0.75


Since deadline:

1. Hoffman 1.99
2. Little 1.71
3. Dominguez 1.56
4. Lauer 1.34
5. Varland 1.01
6. Nance 0.82
7. Rodriguez 0.81
8. Fisher 0.68
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#468502) #
I guess maybe we can look to see if his deployment has changed in September, after that bullpen disaster in august:

September:

1. Hoffman 1.72
2. Little 1.57
3. Dominguez 1.43
4. Lauer 1.34
5. Fisher 1.23
6. Varland 1.10
7. Nance 1.02
8. Rodriguez 0.83


a little more evenly spread lately.

but Rodriguez may be tracking towards being dropped from the playoffs roster.
92-93 - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#468503) #
That WAR graphic the broadcast just showed made me wonder how many Jays fans would even have Vladdy in their top 5 in a team MVP vote. I suspect most would have Springer, Kirk, Bichette, Gausman, and Clement ahead of him. Heck, maybe even Barger.
Glevin - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#468504) #
Nothing hard. Just everything finding holes.
Eephus - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#468505) #
Death by a thousand papercuts. Last night and today feeling way more like a typical game in Tampa.

Still happy with a split if they can’t come back.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#468506) #
crazy how defeated we always look in tampa. just hopeless.

I'm shocked we won two games this series tbh.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#468507) #
Vladdy's the clear mvp to me. He's the anchor and the guy the other team plans around, not Springer.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#468508) #
I don’t get why the Jays struggle against Tampa’s pitching so badly. The offense has been painful to watch this series.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#468509) #
I think this lineup will have a lot of trouble in a playoff environment. Just not enough power to generate offense when they aren't cranking out 3-4 hits in an inning. I'd have zero issues sacrificing outfield defense and having Springer and Santander in the corners with Bo at DH come playoff time. That's probably the team's best shot. Just make defensive subs later in the game.
mendocino - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#468510) #
Santander homer
Glevin - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#468511) #
Braydon Fisher warming up. Just love using your best reliever down 4.
Eephus - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#468512) #
I’m not taking any of the offensive struggles in this series as a bad sign of things to come. It’s Tampa. Dumb bizarre things always happen here in any era, usually not to the benefit of the Jays.
Eephus - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#468513) #
Dear lord though, this Simpson kid is real annoying.
John Northey - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#468514) #
Not too worried on the offense - they always seem to have trouble when the crowd is dead. One thing that you won't see in the playoffs. They seem to feed off a crowds energy.

How have they done vs the teams they could see in the playoffs?
  • vs All in playoff contention still: 48-36, 4.7 RS/G, 4.2 RA/G
  • vs AL currently in playoffs: 25-17 4.6 RS/G, 4.1 RA/G
  • vs NL currently in playoffs: 9-12 3.5 RS/G, 4.1 RA/G
  • vs AL might be in playoffs: 7-5 5.0 RS/G, 3.7 RA/G (Cleveland, Texas)
So they have solid W/L records vs all cases but NL playoff teams and if we face them the Jays made the World Series and I think we'd all be very, very happy if they get there.

They've scored 5+ per game vs Detroit, NYY, Seattle, Cleveland. The teams they have issues with are Houston (2.3 per game, 2-4 record), 4.5 R/G vs Boston, 4.7 R/G vs Texas. But Cleveland they are 3-3 vs - the only team other than Houston in the AL who they don't have a winning record against. All good signs here. A deeper dive into who pitched those games against the Jays I'd look at once the playoff picture is more solid.
Kasi - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#468515) #
Losing Bo takes a lot of oomph out of the lineup. Not that I minded the send it should be a safe enough play but that was a really dumb slide by Bo. Not really a smart way to go about it. (Going in knee first) But yeah right now without Bo they’re a bit thin in the middle of the lineup. Getting out of here 2-2 is fine but would have been nice to split the last two after winning the first two. Just have to root for Baltimore.
Glevin - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#468516) #
France's BABIP has reverted back to expected numbers and now he's back to being basically the same player he was the last 3 seasons.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#468517) #
Yep
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#468518) #
Take the split and leave this hellhole.
John Northey - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#468519) #
Kershaw made it official today - saying this is his final season. 222 wins so far (maybe 1 or 2 more before it fully ends), sub 100 losses. 5 ERA titles, 3 times leading in wins, one of the last to crack 300 K's in a season, 3000 lifetime, 4 ERA+ titles, 3 Cy's, 1 MVP, 13-13 in the post season with a 4.49 ERA (might not be used this time, Dodgers have 1001 pitchers depending who is healthy). His 3 more similar are Pedro Martinez, Max Scherzer, and Roy Halladay (1 Expos and 2 Jays - kinda cool).

I do find it funny how they are saying he might be one of the last with 3000 K's when there are 3 guys with that who are still active (Max and Verlander also over 3k). Chris Sale is 436 shy, Cole 749, Gausman is 1058 short, so yeah, no one really close who is likely to make it but it isn't hard to imagine a guy doing it imo it just might take a decade or so.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#468520) #
Yesavage could end up with a lot of strikeouts, if he can stay healthy (always a big if with any pitcher, and maybe his delivery creates some additional risk).
BlueJayWay - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#468521) #
Another patented road afternoon game
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#468522) #
With the exception of one 8-run game against the White Sox, the Orioles are averaging 2.5 runs a game since Sept. 5. I'm not sure they're going to be any help against the Yankees... Jays should probably just assume they must win 6 of their last 9. No easy task unless Guerrero Jr, Barger, and Kirk come out of hiding.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#468523) #
Oh hey Boston lost again.

Boston now only 1.5gms up on the suddenly red hot Guardians for the last wildcard spot.

Just something to brighten all our days.
uglyone - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#468524) #

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon Correction: The #BlueJays CAN clinch a playoff spot tomorrow with a win. It's due to the 6 guaranteed losses with DET/CLE/BOS playing each other. Laid it out below - hopefully I don't have to correct the correction, but please point out if I'm wrong:

92-93 - Thursday, September 18 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#468525) #
6-3 would be a nice finish, but the odds that the Yankees go 9-0 and make that necessary are not very high.
Jonny German - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 03:31 AM EDT (#468526) #
Thursday September 18: Detroit and Boston lose.

Magic numbers for the Jays to finish ahead of the other top AL teams:

5 Detroit
6 New York
3 Boston
4 Seattle
5 Houston

9 games remaining.

Boston just 1-1/2 games ahead of Cleveland for the 3rd Wild Card spot. Detroit just 1 game up on Houston and Seattle for the 2nd Bye. The Yankees have passed the Tigers (for the first time this season?) but aren’t in line for a Bye as they don’t lead their division.
greenfrog - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#468527) #
Matchups tonight:

Tor (Scherzer) @ KC (Lorenzen)
NYY (Warren) @ Bal (Rogers)

Lorenzen has been roughed up in September so far. We'll see if that trend continues tonight.

Rogers has been excellent this year. Hopefully he'll turn in a good performance against New York.
Katie - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#468528) #
The odds are quite good the Jays will finish with one of the top two records the AL and top five records in baseball. I think even the most optimistic Jays fan would have had a hard time believing that.

Hopefully it's enough to secure a first-round bye.
dalimon5 - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#468532) #
Well at the very least it has shut down the corporate shill narrative about Atkins and Shapiro for (Gasp!) talking up their boss and brand. Tonality on AA has also changed. Before I rile up the board let me specify we are talking about 2 or three posters not often present here.
Mike Green - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#468533) #
I'm back from a short holiday in Ontario, but  had almost no internet and cell coverage. My take on Yesavage, and thoughts on Clement and Kirk follow.

The most significant indicator of long-term success as a starting pitcher is K rate.  Leaving aside debut performances, a pitcher like Yesavage would have a much higher expectation of a good career than Jesse Litsch, Gustavo Chacin or Mauro Gozzo.  Of course.  I am however delighted that he aced his debut and helped his club win a ball game, in the Trop no less.  And I have nothing but praise for how the FO has handled him so far.  I still think that any role for him in the playoffs is reasonably a discretionary decision- whether it be no role at all, a relief role or a starting role.  He starts in Kansas City on Sunday, and would be on target to start the second last or last game of the season in his home debut.  Let's see what happens.

While the team struggled the last two games in Tampa,  Ernie Clement kept doing what he does notwithstanding the hairline fracture in his hand.  I noticed that his IsoP is .124, the same as Alejandro Kirk's which got me thinking about a tale of the tape between the two:

Height- Clement
Weight- Kirk
Power- Kirk (slightly) for more over the fence power
Pure hitting- Kirk (slightly), both are among the league's best at making contact
Plate Discipline- Kirk
Speed- Clement
Defence- Both excellent, hard to say
Overall- Split decision- bWAR: Clement 4.1 to Kirk 1.9; fWAR: Kirk 4.1 to Clement 3.2; I like them both and will call it a draw.  
John Northey - Friday, September 19 2025 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#468535) #
With how things are going and Yesavage starting on Sunday for the 2nd time I'm guessing if he aces it again that we might be looking at Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage-Scherzer for the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how it all goes down the next 9 games as things get ironed out.

Past 28 days, 4-5 starts, Scherzer has a 6.52 ERA. Berrios 4.58, Bieber 3.72, Bassitt 2.77, Gausman 1.75. Also Yesavage 1.80 (1 start), Lauer 7.94 (1 start, 4 relief).

I'd say tonight is important for Scherzer if he wants to hold his slot in the rotation, Bassitt is sneaking up on grabbing a slot. I think it will largely depend on opponent at this point. Berrios has to be 100% out imo and Lauer needs to get going again in the pen to hold his slot as well.
Toronto at Tampa Bay, September 15-18, Part 2 | 88 comments | Create New Account
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