Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith

interesting stuff from Andy, who notes that Kevin Gausman hasn't thrown a bullpen between starts – and the Yankees know this

Last night, John Schneider said: "Everyone is available tomorrow. Everyone is available."

Stands to reason Gausman is an option being considered

https://sny.tv/articles/yankees-blue-jays-alds-game-4-strategies

I'd be quite surprised if Gausman is used today, but stranger things have happened. That would leave Yesavage as the last resort for a game 5, or to be used for game 1 of the LCS. Massive gut check time either way for the kid.

Yankees are anticipating Lauer, they’ve put Goldschmidt in the lineup instead of Rice.

Player wRC+ vRHP / vLHP


1. CF Grisham 144 / 88
2. RF Judge 199 / 225
3. LF Bellinger 105 / 180
4. DH Stanton 157 / 158
5. 2B Chisholm 134 / 106
6. 1B Goldschmidt 74 / 169
7. C Wells 91 / 100
8. SS Volpe 74 / 104
9. 3B McMahon 98 / 44

B. 1B Rice 141 / 104
B. OF Dominguez 116 / 63
B. IF Caballero 81 / 129
B. IF Rosario 72 / 125
B. C Escarra 76 / 96

Santander starts in RF with Schneider on the bench. They must think that Davis can't handle the heat. 

Bo jogging:

https://x.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1976004867509600560

Todays Jays Lineup vRHP

1. DH Springer 178
2. LF Lukes 104
3. 1B Guerrero 129
4. 3B Barger 115
5. C Kirk 116
6. CF Varsho 129
7. LF Santander 70
8. 2B Clement 75
9. SS Gimenez 80


at least there's no Falefa.

Red Sox have only the lefty Hill to bring in for matchup purposes, but this lineup seems designed to make the red sox not want to do that in most any situation. The only guys really vulnerable to lefties there are Barger and Gimenez, but they're surrounded by lefty mashers in this lineup.

Santander's number sucks obviously but they wouldn't be playing him if they didn't think he was looking more like himself lately.

Do we think it’s impossible to put Springer in RF and Santander at DH? I assume for short term it would be ok on Springer’s body, no worse than on Santander’s. And he would have to be better.

Say the Blue Jays get out to a 2-0 lead early on. Should the manager throw Gausman out there in innings 3-7?

Mariners starting pulling away up 3-0 now in the 5th. Series probably over today.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
Trey Yesavage will be available out of the bullpen tonight

Kevin Gausman hasn’t been ruled out but it would require a “really unique” situation per John Schneider

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
19s
Bo Bichette (knee) has made progress in recent days. Jogged on field today. Hit in Toronto yesterday in a sim game vs. Bassitt and Scherzer (afterwards they flew down for the game). Still day to day. Unclear whether he’d be on roster if Jays advance. But some progress.

I would run relievers as long as possible until the first sign of trouble then bing Gausman in.

Varland 1
Dominguez 1
Gausman 4
Fluharty 1
Hoffman 1

That's assuming a lead and only gives you 8 innings. Maybe Lauer fills in an inning or two. I don't want to go to a game 5 because you can't maximize Gausman and Yesavage. I don't want to use Lauer today because he can be very valuable with Yesavage game 5.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
57s
Bo Bichette hit against Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt yesterday in Toronto, then they all travelled to New York together.

Schneider called it two days of good news for Bichette, who jogged on the field today. #BlueJays

That;s really interesting that Yesavage is available. That probably means he's in relief for game 4 and game 5 if necessary. Gausman goes for Game 5. So probably Lauer + BP if losing today or BP + Yesavage if leading.

yeah i was going to say this before (I swear) but springer at DH because you never want to take him out, while Santander there's many situations you may want to replace him.


Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
35s
Jays are using Springer at DH and Santander in RF because they don’t want to take Springer’s bat out of the game but could sub someone like Straw in for Santander for late defensive purposes if needed.

Tigers ain't dead yet!!! all tied!

7-3 tiggies!

That Springer DH logic is completely overthinking it if they actually think Springer is the better defender and that playing the OF doesn’t have an effect on his hitting.

tigers win. 5gm set and skubal goes game 5.

that means if Skubal wins he probably goes in game 3 of the ALCS, and either game 6 on short rest or game 7 on normal rest.

I feel like Varland is going to give up one or more runs tonight. Hope my gut feeling is wrong.

That loss of momentum in Game 2 was the nail in the coffin. A lack of a Game 4 starter was also a bad decision...

Game 5 will be interesting.

Wonder if the Yankee starter will get 3 innings done today. Should be fun to see.

1B Guerrero 15pa, .455babip, 403wrc+ --- RF Judge 14pa, .750babip, 387wrc+
DH Springer 15pa, .111babip, 100wrc+ --- DH Stanton 14pa, .300babip, 34wrc+
CF Varsho 13pa, .714babip, 430wrc+ ----- CF Grisham 14pa, .222babip, 59wrc+
C Alejandro 13pa, .091babip, 148wrc+ --- LF Bellinger 14pa, .222babip, 143wrc+
2B Clement 12pa, .545babip, 327wrc+ --- 2B Chisholm 12pa, .111babip, 93wrc+
SS Gimenez 12pa, .300babip, 100wrc+ ---- SS Volpe 12pa, .250babip, -42wrc+
LF Schneider 8pa, .667babip, 188wrc+ --- 1B Rice 13pa, .286babip, 35wrc+
RF Lukes 7pa, .333babip, 95wrc+ ---------- C Wells 9pa, .429babip, 88wrc+
3B Barger 7pa, .250babip, -28wrc+ -------- 3B McMahon 8pa, .250babip, 38wrc+

OF Santander 7pa, .400babip, 59wrc+ ---- UT Goldschmidt 3pa, .333babip, 88wrc+
IF Falefa 6pa, .000babip, -100wrc+ ------- IF Caballero 2pa, 1.000babip, 438wrc+
OF Straw 5pa, .333babip, 102wrc+ ------- IF Rosario 2pa, .500babip, 317wrc+

C Heineman 0pa ------------------------------ C Escarra 0pa
SS Bichette 0pa ------------------------------- OF Dominguez 0pa





RH Gausman 1gms, 5.2ip, 1.59era, 3.14fip, 4.77xfip ---- LH Fried 1gms, 3.0ip, 21.00era, 8.80fip, 6.01xfip
RH Bieber 1gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 2.76fip, 5.65xfip ------ LH Rodon 1gms, 2.1ip, 23.14era, 10.85fip, 8.58xfip
RH Yesavage 1gms, 5.1ip, 0.00era, -0.43fip, 0.44xfip --- RH Schlittler 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip
LH Lauer 1gms, 0.1ip, 81.00era, -2.86fip, -2.86xfip ---- RH Gil 1gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 11.39fip, 5.11xfip


RH Varland 3gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 10.64fip, 2.62xfip ---- RH Doval 2gms, 3.0ip, 0.00era, 2.47fip, 4.01xfip
LH Little 2gms, 1.2ip, 5.40era, 4.94fip, 7.71xfip -------- LH Hill 2gms, 2.2ip, 0.00era, 2.39fip, 4.12xfip
RH Dominguez 2gms, 1.2ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip -- RH Cruz 2gms, 2.0ip, 4.50era, 1.64fip, 2.41xfip
RH Fisher 2gms, 1.0ip, 9.00era, -0.86fip, -0.86xfip ------ RH Bednar 1gms, 1.2ip, 0.00era, 0.74fip, 0.74xfip
LH Fluharty 2gms, 1.0ip, 9.00era, 4.14fip, 7.22xfip ----- RH Blackburn 1gms, 1.1ip, 27.00era, 12.89fip, 4.29xfip
RH Hoffman 1gms, 1.0ip, 0.00era, 4.14fip, 7.22xfip ----- RH Williams 1gms, 1.1ip, 0.00era, 0.14fip, 2.45xfip
RH Rodriguez 1gms, 1.1ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip --- RH Warren 1gms, 4.2ip, 11.57era, 13.21fip, 6.03xfip
RH Nance 2gms, 1.1ip, 13.50era, 5.39fip, 11.17xfip ----- RH Weaver 2gms, 0.1ip, 81.00era, 12.14fip, 16.76xfip
LH Bruihl 1gms, 0.1ip, 54.00era, 42.14fip, 12.39xfip --- xx

"That loss of momentum in Game 2 was the nail in the coffin."

LOL, what. The Jays are up 2-1. They may end up in the coffin, but it's not even close to being nailed in.

take take take as many pitches as possible against this kid.

lol why on earth are they still pitching to vladdy.

Or just get hits and score runs. That works too.

Schlittler a beast. Just don't burn too many arms and move on to Game 5.

1 clean inning to start the game would be nice.

Yankees defense and bullpen have been great so far this series.

lol ump

Judge is too good of a hitter

Stop pitching to Judge. He's like Bonds level good. Let other guys beat you. Great first inning for Varland. He's thrown a lot in last few games but hopefully can go one more.

nice.

Varland might have another inning in him.

I think they might try to turn him into a starter next year.

big time at bat by Santander there. and it almost paid off. let's see if those 11 pitches pay off for the next guys now.

so hopefully lefty Fluharty can get through Wells-Volpe-McMahon-Grisham painlessly as they all suck vs lefties.

and then we'll see who they bring in for judge.

would be ideal if they could go RH vs 2-6 and LH vs 7-1 the rest of the game, without needing to use 2 guys in any of those segments.

The Jays might prefer to change pitchers mid-inning to make the other starter sit around more.

Blair has mentioned repeatedly that Atkins said they will look at Varland as a starter next spring.

mcmahon hits a hr off a lefty, who he can't hit at all.

that one really hurts.

Let’s score some damn runs!

RH 2-6, LH 7-1

Varland 1-6
Fluharty 7-1
Dominguez 2-6
Little/Lauer 7-1
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
Lauer/Lauer 7-1
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
Bruihl 7-1 ???
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
???

Marc would have IKF warming so they keep their bullpen arms fresh for Game 5.

The loss of momentum in Game 2, which was followed by six runs in the first three innings of Game 3? I'd love to lose momentum again if that's the outcome.

That McMahon homer was brutal.

bah. lots of good contact here. he's not fooling us.

Team is already 1-7 with RISP.

cubbies hold on to avoid the sweep.

oh man that's a good pitch. dammit.

Too close to take but it was a ball.

Hey Marc. Schlittler is good but after five innings the Blue Jays are up 2-1. This game is very, very winnable for Toronto.

Prediction? The Blue Jays win, and more crow is eaten by their detractors.

Looks like it'll be yariel next time through 2-6, but i think i'd rather see Fisher.

What about Yesavage?

Lucky break for Barger! Gotta find a way to bring him around to score. Incredibly valuable insurance run.

And get Yesavage warm.

honestly i'd rather schlittler stays in - we can't hit their pen at all.

This would be a good time for Varsho to get into one.

heh schneider is really doing these mind games well.

sending them out to the bullpen one at a time.

is Lauer pitching too well to pull him here.....?

Great job Lauer (Grisham out).

oh schneider is very tempted....

Great job Lauer (Bellinger out).

this is a weird one to me - if you were pulling Lauer anwyays now, you probably should have pulled him for bellinger (belly hits LHP better than any yank other than judge).

but whatever. great job lauer.

Feels like the key moment of the game — right now.

yeah that was massive. kinda thought john messed that up but then Dan mentioned chisholm was 0 for 7 vs yariel so there must be some kind of pitch type split going on there.


All the way through 6 and we have 3 guys with plenty of high leverage usage this year left - hoffman fisher little. not bad.


if yariel and little can take care of the bottom of the order again (up until grisham) it'll be interesting to see who comes out to face the Judge part of the order after that - Hoffman, Fisher (Yesavage? Gausman?).

Conner Greene is a bigger beast. What's the fun in your doomsaying? I didn't see Rodin get 12 Ks... feel free to stop being wrong anytime.

Now it’s the Yankees’ turn to make a critical defensive error.

Need to cash at least one in here.

What a moment for Lukes!!!

Nathan Lukes rocks!

LUUUUUKKKKKKKK

Chisholm’s error was worse than any committed by the Blue Jays yesterday.

Barger can ice this thing

is he bringing in a lefty against goldschmidt? please no.

9 more outs. Get it done any way you can. Extra runs so important to protect against random solo hr.

And (it goes without saying)…no walks

Little in against the guy who started this game specifically to hit lefties......i woulda given yariel one more hitter but what the hell Schneider is kind of doing a masterclass at the moment.

If Little walks the leadoff hitter, I swear....

One loud, loud one down, eight to go.

Every out so critical right now.

McMahon out of the game. Good.

I keep him in for rosario.

I want little against grisham for sure.

perfect perfect perfect.

still think schneider messed up by not leaving yariel in for goldschmidt but little saves him.

Get six outs before they score three runs, how hard could it be?

Hoffman or Fisher next inning?

Or Yesavage???

Great call uglyone. And great job Brendon Little. Nailed it.

Six outs to go!

So stressful. How about another 7 or 8 runs added on for insurance to help my breathing?

Started the game 40 minutes late and pkayed catchup through the ad breaks and such. Sitting through real time crunch time is rough.

Brilliant work Myles. Clutch hitter.

I get why he does it, but you can see Schneider's defence-first approach evident on decisions such as putting Straw in for the bottom of the seventh even with Santander coming up third the next inning.

Or, I should correct myself, it's obviously his offence-first approach, given Straw's first postseason RBI.

I need Valium

CHARGE THE MOUND!!!

nonsense stuff there.

NY Sore Losers down 5-1

how DARE they touch ernie

Enjoy Cancun, Doval.

don't IBB Judge to start the inning. bean him instead.

Myles Straw, man, myles straw.

Greatkins, indeed.

ok Fisher don't make them regret this. you are awesome.

https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1517985117460869120

Save the beaning for '26. Six outs is still a lot to get. 

thank you ump for that beauty!

but Fisher still had to use it! and he did!

*Love* the K of Judge by Fisher. Living well is the best revenge. And that could be Judge’s last memory of hitting in 2025.

oh no.

Bad walk by Fisher. But he got two big outs.

Hoffman time.

Hoffman on in the 8th! Bruihl to seal the series?

hold me.

I really hate watching Hoffman pitch.

I mean, I really love watching Hoffman pitch.

i give hoffman one more batter. Bad result -- Yesavage time.

oh man oh man oh man thank sweet jesus.

just enough, hoffer.

Whew

No sweat

God I hate walking guys up big. Hoffman throwing 97 does bode well though.

Can Gausman pitch the ninth please?

hyperventilating

look at those fans streaming for the exits.

weak, weak stuff. it's a four run deficit and they're the yankeed.

Lukes trying to Hoffman-proof this game.

weak, weak stuff. it's a four run deficit and they're the yankeed.

Yeah, but on the other hand, New York City traffic.

heh. true.

unfortunately i'd be surprised if we get through this without Judge coming up again.

who is warming

Hoffman still looking iffy. But every out is massive and he just got one.

I'm not convinced Schneider will warm someone. He'll win or lose it with Hoffman.

that defense out there for TO may be one of the best all time for this team

excellent defense by both. clutch.

Yaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!

Bring on the Marigers!

Great job Jeff Hoffman! ALCS here we come!

And — Bo is starting to feel better. What a day.

YESSSSSSSS!!!!!

amazing.

and yes, thank you hoffman. you got it done.

Greatkins >>>

Good news for the doubters. They can now get ALDS game 5 tickets at a steep discount.

That error is going to haunt Jazz for a long time.

I thought these games were supposed to get easier to watch the older you get. What a group!

The Brewers can't close the deal, Cubs still alive.
Mariners can't close the deal, Tigers still alive.
Phillies trying to stay alive, ahead 3-1.

Meanwhile....

And that's some masterful managing tonight. That's the manager of the year right there.

The good news is that i don't think either SEA or DET has near as many lefties so we won't need a 4th LH next series. We can bring a 4th SP instead. And heck we should probably bring a 5th SP instead of Nance too.

John Schneider really came into his own as a manager this year.

Gritty win. Very much a team win.

I don't think there's any doubt Bruihl is dropped for Bassitt or Scherzer.

Personally, I'd keep Nance, as he's been better this year than he pitched in the ALDS, but it seems Schneider doesn't trust him, so it would be worth taking someone he'll use.

Start spreading the news...

I like nance but man you gotta think Schneider saw Warren soak up all those clutch innings in a loss to save their bullpen and sees how valuable that can be, especially in a long series.

Obviously the pitchers performing was the important part, but great managed game by John Schneider. This was not a high probability win based on the matchup, but props to everyone involved to get this done.

On to the ALCS!

So I didn’t actually watch the game tonight. Superstitions and the sheer annoyance of yesterday made me dread putting it on the television at home. Didn’t keep up with or check social media or group chats… instead I listened on the radio via headphones from the 4th inning onward and realizing this still did little to relieve the anxiety, thought I’d go for a walk and listen. Honestly felt like I could’ve walked from Scarborough to Mimico and back multiple times fueled solely by that tension.

I must say I especially looked the part of a lunatic when Straw singled in the fifth run, with my fist pump “yeah!” as I was crossing Queen and Woodbine. A group under a gazebo in Kew Park had the game on a projector and as tempting as that was to join them for the ninth…. Never mess with what’s working.

What a team, what a season. They definitely, uh, sounded more like themselves tonight.

Yeah, I felt tense all the way through until the last out. I'm really happy for the team and it was so good beating the Yankees in their home park!

Best of all, the Jays get to rest up while the Tigers and Mariners play game 5.

Amazing. Astounding. Astonishing. I don't like the managing yesterday but today was very nicely done. Congrats to the boys in Blue.

This is about as enjoyable a clip as you'll ever see:

https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1976119989817221492

It's still hard to believe the Jays have convincingly taken down the 2024 World Series runner-up. What a season so far. And it continues....

Lol i love the dedication, Eephus! We are all crazy here.

I didn’t check in til just after 10:30 est. Once they lost game three I went off radar for this one. Was nervous about the pitching matchup but the Yankees were just too much Judge and too little anyone else.

John Schneider really came into his own as a manager this year.

It's something I've been thinking about - I do have a Report Card to write eventually, not that there's any hurry. He's now the fourth man to manage the Jays into the ALCS, and I've been thinking about what strikes me as most distinctive about him as compared with Cox, Gaston, and Gibbons. Anyway...

I've lost track of how many big RBI hits Nathan Lukes has poked into the opposite field...

Myles Straw. When fly balls are hit in his general direction, a feeling of contentment comes all over me.

Santander is having some really impressive at bats. He's not getting rewarded. Yet.

i love the dedication, Eephus!

The fruit doesn't fall far from the tree, I'm proud to say. I was outside on the stoop having a smoke (to calm the nerves!) when Springer drove in the go-ahead run. If I'd known I was going to be out there another ninety minutes, I'd have worn something warmer.

Not making anything personal, but this post from a few hours ago didn’t age well:

Schlittler a beast. Just don't burn too many arms and move on to Game 5.

Heck of a game. Heck of a series.

Biggest difference between Schneider and Cox is Schneider learns faster - Cox kept doing his platoons instantly even when they were flopping due to KC figuring out he was going to do that. Schneider only flopped out once with that (game 3) and said 'screw it' after that and went back to 7 innings of solid offense, then pull everyone for defense if in the lead. Always felt Cox was a great regular season manager who flopped in the post-season due to not being willing to adjust when needed. Gaston adjusted big time (never PH in regular season unless forced, but post-season he'd use a rookie in that role if needed). Gibbons I can't really recall (it was the 2 years after my wife died so my memories of those playoffs are minimal - I was focused 100% on my kids and surviving).

Marc is having a tonne of fun leaning into being the nay-sayer around here. Sorry if I'm spoiling the joke, Marc.

Hoffman got seven swings-and-misses in the ninth - he's going to be the closer, and that's a good sign for the ALCS.

It's Lukes and Clement and Straw as much as Yesavage and Vladdy that make this team increasingly appear to be a team of destiny.

It's been a bit surreal for me to hear all the deference paid the yankees this series - to me this is a team that has never scared me on paper or on the field from the start of the season.

and i'm looking at their lineup tonight and wondering how Boone, while trying to matchup-proof his lineup, still somehow managed to play right into our hands by giving us a lefty-runway right through the 7-1 slots in their lineup....and I realized he simply didn't have the players to make it any tougher on us. There was nothing great he could have done to avoid putting a highly matchup-exploitable lineup on the field tonight.

And that's just the hitting - never mind that their SP aren't intimidating in the least and their bullpen is pretty much just bad outside of Bednar.

Just a far too flawed team that lived off one supreme player and a lineup good enough to beat up on bad teams.

I kind of thought that when it blows up in your face it blows up in your face. It never occurred to me it's actually all very witty and purposeful. Everybody's bad. Yeah Gabriel you're probably right. Had us all rolling.

I don't think I've ever heard them explain properly the benefit to the Jays of the Tigers/Mariners aces pitching in Game 5.

They seem to always say it's because their ace shifts from 'Games 1 and 5' to 'Games 3 and 7', but that part may actually benefit their team because the games typically get more important (ask Win Probability Added).

It seems to me the actual benefit to the Jays is that the other team's ace will have logged additional innings/workload and not have any extra rest when facing the Jays.

Later games are more important only if they happen, because they might not happen, they don't necessarily average as more important. Like every game 7 is the most important game, but if you were given the choice of win game 1 and lose game 7 if it happens or lose game 1 and win game 7 if it happens it is not at all clear that you should pick lose game 1 and win game 7 if it happens. Plus if your aces go early you have more choices to have them go three times on short rest and/or in a relief appearance or otherwise manage the relievers and what not knowing the result (and likely good result) from the earlier games.

I was skeptical that Santander would be in game shape and with good hitting and what not given when he returned to play, and he hasn't really had the impact hits necessarily, but he's definitely had top quality at bats (including seeing tons of pitches today) so it has definitely been good to have him in (so count my skepticism as wrong).

Judge is really, really good so it is nice that the lose shouldn't be blamed on him. The Jays have lots of guys who hit really, really well including Vlad. I guess he saved up his hits from late September for the playoffs.

If Bo has started running I'm still not sure if he'll be ready for the next round or not, but maybe? And near certainly for World Series (knock on wood).

Bassitt and Scherzer should definitely be on the ALCS roster for Bruihl and Nance. 
Bo for IKF will be a tougher decision based on how Bo looked running yesterday, but they should probably still do it even if Bo can only PH later in the series.

They don't need the extra lefty either.
Certainly, if they play the Tigers, it would be interesting to have Scherzer there.

The ALCS is a 2-3-2 format.
They might need to save the pen in the away part.

I'm just glad the Yankees are gone now, Gabriel. No more from me for the rest of the playoffs.

One thing I did notice is that this was perhaps the most consistent and fair umpiring I've seen in a very long time. Almost to the point where I could have sworn there was a robo-ump in the home plate ump's ear.

I think I heard more swear words broadcast live on Sportsnet after yesterdays game than I have heard on TV in the last several years.

I am not complaining BTW, just observing.

Marc is having a tonne of fun leaning into being the nay-sayer around here.

That's what I thought! Reverse-jinx mojo!

Congrats to the team but also to the front office, who put together a great and underrated roster this year. Among other things, the FO:

-Added a new (and much beloved) hitting coaching staff

-Extended Vladdy

-Extended Kirk

-Overhauled the bullpen, largely with unheralded players

-Traded for Straw

-Added Heineman

-Bolstered the team at the deadline with Bieber, Varland, Seranthony and France

-Traded for Gimenez, who has underperformed but has still been a useful player (especially with Bo injured)

-Stuck with and nurtured some of their minor-league veterans like Lukes and Schneider

-Managed Yesavage's progression superbly, in addition to drafting him in the first place

Bravo.

I think you are giving them too much credit for straw and not enough credit for giminez but otherwise I agree completely. Thats a great team thats been assembled.

Give me both bassist and scherzer for the next round. I like having options and am not convinced the people they are replacing are better.

Good list greenfrog. One omission stands out: Eric Lauer. Absolutely critical piece of the pitching staff.

Cox kept doing his platoons instantly even when they were flopping due to KC figuring out he was going to do that.

I've long thought that's one of those narratives that just takes over somehow, sometimes in the face of what actually happened. (I blame Bill James for this one.) It was a pretty small part of the Royals rallying from being down 3 games to 1. They won the fifth game because Danny Jackson threw a complete game shutout. In game six, Gubicza vs Alexander, the Royals went up 5-2 (Dour Doyle, always great in September, always an October pumpkin.) The Jays got some runners on in the sixth, Howser brought in the LH (Bud Black) and Cox had Johnson hit for Al Oliver - and Heathcliff delivered, an RBI single to make it 5-3. But Black shut them down after that. And in the seventh game, I don't think Howser wanted to pull his Cy Young winner after three innings, but he'd taken a line drive to his pitching hand.

The real problem was the three man rotation. After his brilliant work in the opener, Stieb pitched both games four and seven on three days rest. It worked once, but he was on fumes for the finale. I think it was a young manager listening a little too carefully to his much older, much more experienced pitching coach. Not the last time that would happen in Jays history.

Good catch, Jonny. Totally agree about Lauer. He has been great all year, and what a performance in yesterday's game.

I would also have both Bassit and Scherzer for next round. One to start game 4 and other for long relief. I think you saw a bunch of times when Jays could have used someone go a few innings in a 4 game series so it makes sense to have someone who can do it. Seattle is an amazing stadium for RHP and suppresses all sorts of offense. Would be fine with either guy starting a game there . I'd generally prefer facing the Tigers because they aren't as good a team but playoffs are weird so I'll take either. I think it's a cool think that both Seattle and Detroit are border cities so both have a ton of Jays fans naturally at their games.

What a fabulous result. This team keeps defying expectations.

I need to eat crow on Santander. He looked good and fit right in.

One of the best moments of the post game celebrations was Fox Sports interviewing Vlad, and he and Big Papi joined together in saying," DAAA YANKEES LOSE !" about 5 times while Jeter and Alex Rodriguez have to sit there and smile weakly. It is glorious!

The cable was out for the second game in a row, so I ended up having to watch the end of the game again by sailing the high seas and watching the FS1 feed.

Caught the FS1 ARod/Big Papi/Captain Jeter postgame panel.

The 3 stars were very deferential after the fact even though they all picked the Yankees to win the ALDS.

Maybe the most interesting thing was that all 3 of them completely absolved Aaron Boone of any complicity in the loss. ARod took a nameless jab at Brian Cashman, implying that the 2025 Yankees had some of the worst roster construction he'd ever seen that with "3 LHH catchers & 5 DHs" that handcuffed Boone and he could only do so much with.

Jeter, with the proviso that he had no internal knowledge, then went on to make a 2023 John Schneider-tier insinuation that someone else other than Boone was making many of the Yankee strategic decisions from the dugout.

Even though there was probably an ESL factor as well, I was surprised that both Arod & Papi continually praised Mark Shapiro by name (and not Ross Atkins) for this roster construction, while to my ear mispronouncing his surname as Shap-PEER-o rather than Shap-EYE-row.

With Mark having a tenure long enough in the league dating back to the Moneyball As era of the early aughts, spanning the active careers of Alex & Papi.

Even though there was probably an ESL factor as well, I was surprised that both Arod & Papi continually praised Mark Shapiro by name (and not Ross Atkins) for this roster construction, while to my ear mispronouncing his surname as Shap-PEER-o rather than Shap-EYE-row."

Got to side with them here. Mark is mispronouncing his own name!

I think tbey are right that Cashman has built an imbalanced team and there's not much he can do right now. I expect them to be great again as long as Judge can keep doing what he does but he's 33 so who knows?

I'll be the contrarian on the Ortiz/Vlad Yankee mocking.

It's understandable on Vlad's part since the Jays have always been the Davids to the Yankees Goliaths, so it must feel great to slay them at least once. But for me, mocking a defeated opponent has never held any appeal.

Was thinking something similar the other day with the contrast between Yesavage and Manoah when they arrived. Yesavage definitely let his emotions show, but without Manoah's in-your-face histrionics. Some loved that about Manoah, I never did. But to each their own.

The fun thing about facing either Detroit or Seattle (and I agree that Detroit would be the favored matchup as Seattle seems better - even more so if Skubal is burned in game 5 and thus not able to pitch 3 times in the ALCS - but the Jays seem better than either): rivalries.

If it is Seattle, it is the fellow 1977 expansion teams.

If it is Detroit, it is who I always felt was our first rival being the 401 highway series.

I wonder if we can get nearly as many Jays fans at either location - feels like in the regular season that might be the case but in the post season a little harder to manage (especially if some folks are not wanting to go into the US these days).

Still a ways to go before the ultimate goal but definite props go to the FO. I think we are going to look back on 2024 fondly because this organization needed that kick to the groin in order to facilitate change. The hitting coach changes, the minor league pitching development changes, etc, do not happen without hitting rock bottom in 2024. Props to them for staying the course and seeing their vision (contact heavy, defense) play out effectively.

Now we wait for the ALCS.

StephenT - imo there's clear and big advantages to Skubal not being available until game 3.

1. it removes any possibility of him throwing 3 starts, and probably even any 3rd appearance out of the pen. it would be a tough call anyways because he'd have had to go on 3 days rest twice - but for a pitcher as good as him that's not actually a crazy ask in an ALCS. but now that's impossible. In fact, now they even have to ask him to on short rest even if they need him for game 6, let alone game 7. and then if they use him in game 6 on short rest it's tough to even use him out of the pen in a game 7. whereas if he threw on regular rest games 1 and 5 then he'd most certainly be available out of the pen in a game 7.

2. then there's the huge advantage of having a much better shot at taking the early lead in the series. The Jays can go up 2-0 in the series before ever seeing Skubal. They can wint he series 4-1 without ever beating Skubal.


3. not having skubal in game 1 gives the jays a better chance at beating up their pen early in the series to really set them back later in the series.

I think tbey are right that Cashman has built an imbalanced team and there's not much he can do right now.

I did look at the Yankees pending 2026 free agents last night, because the FS1 panel did allude to tough decisions & familiar faces leaving.

Going by memory, the main FAs were Bellinger (with a player option he'll decline), Williams, Rosario, Goldschmidt & Grisham. So some changeover, but mostly their supporting cast (despite Grisham & Bellinger having good years). Tim Hill also has something like a 3 mil team option that I'd imagine gets exercised despite him being 35.

Somewhat surprised that most of the NYY deadline acquisitions came with term. All of Bednar, Doval & McMahon are still Yankees next year.

Besides Judge & Stanton, the Yankees like the Jays (but to a much more excessive degree) have a lot of their payroll resources tied up in SP in Cole, Fried & Rodon.

Still going back and forth in my ahead over whether Boone screwed up last night or not. His choices were limited due to roster construction, but I still feel that giving our lefties a clear run of patsies from #7 thru #1 can't have been the best setup.

and now that i've thought about it i believe the cardinal sin in that lineup is Grisham hitting leadoff. Because Grisham can't hit lefties. at all. And you can't have that at the top of the lineup to start with, but particularly not when the bottom 3rd of the order also sucks vs lefties.

Now they probably have reasons - Grisham had a career year this year and I'm blind guessing that that has to do with him probably being a fastball hitter and hitting in front of Judge to get those fastballs - so in his mind Boone might have been thinking that hitting Grisham there was the best way to maximize his contribution. Which might be fair, but would then just point to poor roster construction.

To really matchup-proof his lineup, Grisham has to be between two guys who can really hit lefties to stop us from just using a lefty against him every time.

And now that I think about it Boone actually had a pretty simple way of doing this - he could have just slotted Goldschmidt the lefty masher in the 9 hole. That would have forced Schneider to hesitate on just rolling the lefties right through to Grisham.


1. CF Grisham - kills RHP, can't hit LHP
2. RF Judge - kills both
3. LF Bellinger - ok vRHP, kills LHP
4. DH Stanton - kills both
5. 2B Chisholm - kills RHP, ok vLHP
6. C Wells - mediocre vs both
7. SS Volpe - can't hit RHP, ok vLHP
8. 3B McMahon - ok vRHP, can't hit LHP
9. 1B Goldschmidt - can't hit RHP, kills LHP

still far from great, but at least this stops us from getting a lefty against Grisham every time. then again, it probably gets a lefty up every time against Chisholm - though he can actually hit lefties ok so that's not as bad for them.


or go with:

1. LF Bellinger
2. CF Grisham
3. RF Judge
4. DH Stanton
5. 2B Chisholm
6. 1B Goldschmidt
7. C Wells
8. SS Volpe
9. 3B McMahon

this is probably better - Grisham gets protected between two guys who destroy lefties, and Chisholm gets a bit of lefty protection too with Goldie up after him.

this still leaves a 3-man lefty corridor at the bottom of the order but IMO 3 is much harder on us than a 4-man was, especially since it lets one of their best RHP-hitting guys in Grisham actually face RHP.


So I take it back - Boone actually did screw the pooch with his lineup construction last night, and absolute played right into our hands making a bullpen game much, much easier on us than it might have been.

I agree with hypobole and Mike. Better to be a gracious victor and give credit to your opponent. Think “what would Abraham Lincoln do.” The other thing about the Papi/Vladdy mocking of the Yankees is that, psychologically, it emphasizes the wrong thing (the Yankees’ loss, as opposed to the Blue Jays’ breakthrough achievement).

eh i think the Yankees media and fanbased asked for it tbh.

and vladdy is just so damn likeable and joyful that i doubt they're even insulted.

A great win especially considering the game 3 meltdown and having to go with a bullpen game. This series also renews the stars and scrubs vs balanced team argument. The playoffs so far has amplified the importance of defense.

My top 5 MVP's for this series:

1 Vlad
2 Yesavage
3 Ernie
4 Varsho
5 Gausman

A tough series for the Ernie Clement detractors.

I dont see what Vladdy Jr did as mocking. I saw that as celebrstory.

Classic fun police in here. Vladdy's postgame interview with Big Papi was amazing. 

Looking at the nine "everyday" Yankee hitters, Aaron Judge was fantastic, a 1.273 OPS, but five of their hitters had an OPS under 600 and Bellinger was at 651. McMahon was second best at .833 but he only had half the at-bats. The ninth hitter was Rice at .730.

For the top nine Blue Jay hitters (By AB's), three had an OPS over 1.000, Vlad, Ernie and Varsho. Kirk and Lucas tied McMahon at .833. The Jays had only one hitter under 600, Santander.

I agree with posters that a victorious team shouldn't mock the losers, but I think it was more Vlad having some fun with Big Papi. Ortiz loves to joke around with Jeter and Rodriguez so he delighted in rubbing in the Yankee's defeat to them but I don't think it was directed at Yankee fandom in general.

A couple of months ago a Bauxite said they were completely ready to concede that the Dodgers are a superior team to the Blue Jays. It would be great if those two teams squared off in the WS to test that proposition, and to have Shohei and Vladdy play against each other (along with ex-Jay/old friend Teo and ex-Dodger Fisher).

A Blue Jays-Brewers WS would also be exciting.

Obviously I’m getting a bit ahead of myself here.

How dare you call Ernie and Lukes 'scrubs' !

and to have Shohei and Vladdy play against each other (along with ex-Jay/old friend Teo and ex-Dodger Fisher).

I think the real marquee matchup we're all waiting for is Straw vs Sasaki.

Yeah, I don't blame Vlad. When Big Papi started doing it, what's he supposed to do? Sit there stone-faced?

Skubal pitching tomorrow is huge if Detroit wins. If he didn't and started Game 1 and 5, I think there's a 100% chance he's sitting in the bullpen in Game 7 and pitching an inning or two out of the pen.

Papi and Vladdy were just playing off the obnoxious Yankee broadcaster meme of: "The Yankeeeeees Win! The Yankeeeeees Win!" No harm no foul, in my opinion.

In terms of next up, I'm hoping for the Tigers as I'm old enough to remember the rivalry of the 80s and the disaster of the last week of 1987, with Doyle, Tanana et al. Jays have never had the opportunity to avenge that debacle in the playoffs.

Well, of all playoffs the Jays have played Ernie Clement & Vlad are tied for the best wRC+ at 324 (minimum 10 PA) with Varsho's 302 next. Also over 200 are Molitor 1993, Rance Mulliniks 1985, and Josh Donaldson 2016 (all from 203 to 244).

Clearly the Jays offense was very alive this series.

Pitching we saw a 6th member of the 0 ERA club added (for now) in Yesavage with his 5 1/3 IP (Osuna '16, Biagini '16, Sanchez '15, Lamp '85, Acker '85 also are members of that club, none over 9 1/3 IP). Only Gausman & Yesavage have had 5+ IP so far in '25. Cut down to 'just pitched' and you get 39 with 0 ERA's, Jimmy Key's 0.75 in 1992 the best for 10+ IP. Tied for worst is Bruihl at 54.00 with AJ Cole 2020, Lauer & Nance not impressive either with 13.50 ERA's each (#105 all time for Jay pitchers out of 112 used). Lifetime as a Jay we are down to 78 pitchers used in the playoffs and those 2 are still tied at 54.00, and down to 24 with 0 ERA's. Lowest with 10+ lifetime is Jim Acker at 0.69 in 13 IP.

For the Jays as a club 2025 has seen a 4.37 ERA so far, 6th best out of 11 post-seasons. The 168 wRC+ is by far the best ever, 2nd best is 1993 at 118 (2 rounds and a WS title). Worst offense was 2020's pathetic 41 and worst ERA was 2022's 7.00 (ugh).

FYI: so far in 2025 the Yankees 5.61 ERA is 2nd worst to Cincinnati's 9.00 (yikes!) with the Jays 3rd worst at 4.37. Detroit is at 3.14, Seattle 4.14 so far. Switch to regular seasons and Seattle is at 3.87 13th place, just ahead of the Yankees. Detroit is at 3.97 for 17th place, Jays 4.19 for 19th place.

For wRC+ Jays #1 at 168, Seattle #6 at 93, Detroit #8 at 78. Regular season Seattle 113, Jays 112 for 3rd & 4th, Detroit 12th at 103.

Basically the NYY & the 2 the Jays could face next round have similar staffs during the season, but Seattle has the better offense of the 2 possible opponents. This suggests the Tigers are the better team to face, but in the end whoever it is I'm just glad the Jays face them instead of the Yankees facing them.

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah Yankees Lose ... was hilarious. Even Jeter and ARod were laughing. Things can get out of hand I agree -- but this was good natured ribbing. Also, it was funny partially because of all the disrespect the Jays get from the American media and how self-involved and self-important Yanks fans and Yanks culture can be. I've been saying it all day.

For the ALCS the roster is the question.

C: Kirk & Heineman (obvious)
1B: Vlad (duh)
2B-SS-3B: Clement-Gimenez-Barger with Schneider & IKF as possible backups plus Bo lurking around too
OF: Varsho-Schneider-Lukes-Springer-Straw-Santander all possible

So that would be 14 hitters for 13 slots. Who gets cut? If Bo isn't ready he obviously would be the cut, but if he is ready then who? I see just 2 possible choices in IKF & Santander. Straw is too useful for defense and the only solid backup for Varsho (unless you want to put Springer out there).

Round 1 saw just 6 PA for Straw & IKF, while Heineman got 0. Santander was 2 for 10 for a 7 wRC+ (ugh) only IKF was worse at -100. The two of them also flubbed on defense in game 3 helping that be a loss. I could see them going without IKF if they feel they really, really need offense vs Detroit or Seattle, but I'd bench Santander first myself.

"Classic fun police in here."

No policing. As I said, to each their own. Am I not allowed to express my opinion because it's anti-fun, officer?

Ortiz does that all the time. It's kind of one of his things, and Jeter and A-Rod were also laughing. Ortiz loves Vladdy, and Vladdy was playing along.

If it wasn't something that Ortiz does after many Yankees losses, maybe it's a thing. Ortiz pushed it, it was genuinely funny, sports is supposed to be fun.

Remember the famous Vladdy "my house?" moment from a few years back? The Yankees later clinched the division at the Rogers Centre, and all the memes were "Where did the Yankees clinch?" with that clip attached. Gotta have fun with it. If Vlad got on the video and talked about how easy it was, or disrespected players or organization or whatever, that's one thing. They all consistently said how good of a team it was, and that made beating a rival extra sweet.

Hard to see what's wrong with that.

This aged...poorly. :)

This aged...incredibly. :)

I'd take Loperfido over Santander, personally, but the Jays won't do that.

They won't take Bo over Santander. If Bo's healthy enough to play, IKF has absolutely no role other than as a second pinch runner. They're not taking Bo and then lifting him for defence in the eighth.

Other option is to drop a reliever and take Bo too.

Personally if Bo can hit and run, I think you have to take him on the roster. I'd take all 14 bats, and add Max too. Drop Bruihl and Nance.

The Arizona Fall league is up and running. Would it be best to use the last minor league thread for comments?

FG's take on yesterday's game headlined by "relentless" scrub Ernie.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/relentless-ernie-clement-and-blue-jays-oust-yankees-from-division-series/

Bo needs to be able to run at least to be on roster. If he can, that means he can DH. If he can only hit he's a pinch hitter you need to pinch run for and you can't really carry that. If he can field, he simply replaces IKF on roster. I think even if he can't, he might too. Jays have multiple options at every position. Santander is going to be on roster. He had some incredible abs and I think results will show up soon. Pitching, I'm adding both starters in for Bruihl and Nance.

Yeah, if Bo is only so-so or only going to play the last half of the series you might want to keep IKF to spell him or in case he goes down. But even with out IKF you can cover the infield with Barger-Gimenez-Clement or Clement-Gimenez-Schneider so I think IKF is the cut.

Santander had the low OPS in the Yankee series, but he had good AB seeing lots of pitches and generally looked pretty good so I don't think he's the cut.

Agreed with hypobole about the AFL. I will post on the last MLU. For now Kacevich, Coffee and Duran are doing well.

It's not supposed to be easy. It really was easy, though.

Living through is pitch by pitch, you don't realize how impotent the vaunted Yankees offense was. Surely a neutral would say we destroyed them.

It really was easy, though.

Hmm. It didn't feel easy. But I suppose it never does.

WPA (min .10)

Batters
Vlad .43
Ernie .38
Judge .33
Gimenez .15
Lukes .11
Varsho .10

Pitchers
Seranthony .19
Yesavage .18
T. Hill .16
Lauer .12
Gausman .11

WPA is fun, but sometimes very odd. I thought I'd look at 1992/93 when the Jays won it all. Alomar in '93 had a -0.29 WPA in the WS despite hitting 480/519/640 - how the heck does that happen? For more bizarre - same guy '92 WS +0.07 WPA via a 208/296/250 line, or totally insane 0.01 in '92 LCS (won the LCS MVP) with a 423/464/692 line that included a key super-critical home run in game 4 (funny, memory plays tricks on you as I thought it was earlier in the series). Stuff like that makes me seriously question WPA.

It’s pretty simple - it happens by getting hits in spots that matter a lot less than the ones in which you make outs. Context matters a lot.

Getting picked off while trying to steal 3rd with 2 outs is probably a pretty big negative

I found this more eloquent explanation of WPA by Ben Clemens on Fangraphs:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-think-win-probability-added-is-a-neat-statistic/

It is interesting that the case (made repeatedly by one poster) against starting Clement throughout the regular season was that he had a poor WPA. And then he absolutely torched the Yankees in the postseason. Make of that what you will.

Being the underdog is fine.

The Jays have home field advantage and a rest advantage.
No need to become complacent.

Nobody ever suggested Clement shouldn't start because he had a poor WPA. 

Mike, where did you find the Jays underdog status vs the Mariners?

Yeah, I remember Ernie's poor WPA being posted on a few occasions, but merely as a statement of fact, without opinion attached.

I can understand the AL teams being an underdog to the top NL teams as the top NL teams had more wins and might well be the slight favorite. But I don't think Seattle should be a favorite over the Jays. Especially if Bo is healthy enough to play, but even if not with the Jays more rested and home field and the better regular season record in what was likely the harder division to play in and the harder ALCS series I'd think they'd have to be the favorite or at least no worse than equal.

WPA is kind of interesting as a backwards looking stat, but it's not a very predictive stat going forward.

I put the numbers in the newer thread - i can't get upset at mariners being listed as the favorite. Especially if Bo is out. They are very good on paper.

Using the old fashioned eye test the Jays look to be most dominant. They have Vlad on fire and Santander getting closer. They have Yesavage peaking. Clement packing. All factors that won't be captured by many predictive numbers from the season. It's just like the season. Predictions of missing the playoffs were made mostly on ideas of players like Springer being useless. Reality happened differently.

At what point do we listen to our hearts and use cause and effect to just conclude the Jays are a dominant team with flaws who can beat anyone right now except maybe the Brewers and Dodgers?

Yes to Bassitt on the roster. But he could be rusty with his recent layoff and back injury. His success depends on an effective deployment of his varied arsenal of pitches. The manager will have to be prepared to pull him quickly if he doesn’t have it, as he did with Bieber in game 3 of the ALDS.

OK, mike, you confused me with the term oddsmakers in your 1st post. Fangraphs is a projection system. That is different.

Perfect example is the game today. Fangraphs has Seattle as having a 55% chance of winning. But oddsmakers all have the Tigers as slight favourites.

The Jays are the favourites, not the Mariners.

If Bo is playing he is a DH only. He cannot possibly play the field if he just started running now - shortstop is way too rough on the knees (as is 2B - the only other position he has ever played as a pro and then only 30 games all pre 2020 in the minors) speaking as a 56 year old with bad knees who tried to do that last year with poor results (slow pitch and fastpitch softball). It would be asking for him to be back on the IL. Thus IKF becomes the only real backup IF who has strong defense (game 3 excluded).

Now, going with 12 pitchers is possible. I could see either Bassitt or Scherzer added (gives a few more innings, and covers game 4, possible pen in games 1 and 7). But then 1-2 relievers would be cut - Bruihl faced 4 batters, getting just 1 out, Yariel for some reason only saw 6 batters, but the guy I'd expect cut if they want to add a real starter is Nance (10 faced in 2 games just getting 4 outs). Nance was used just 8 times with above 1 leverage, 7 times over 1.5 leverage (aka high leverage) out of 30 games. Clearly Schneider and the Jays don't have a lot of confidence in him in those situations. Hitters were 5 for 15 in those situations vs him (all singles) so maybe he could but if he doesn't have the managers confidence then he shouldn't be on the roster.