Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith

interesting stuff from Andy, who notes that Kevin Gausman hasn't thrown a bullpen between starts – and the Yankees know this

Last night, John Schneider said: "Everyone is available tomorrow. Everyone is available."

Stands to reason Gausman is an option being considered

https://sny.tv/articles/yankees-blue-jays-alds-game-4-strategies

I'd be quite surprised if Gausman is used today, but stranger things have happened. That would leave Yesavage as the last resort for a game 5, or to be used for game 1 of the LCS. Massive gut check time either way for the kid.

Yankees are anticipating Lauer, they’ve put Goldschmidt in the lineup instead of Rice.

Player wRC+ vRHP / vLHP


1. CF Grisham 144 / 88
2. RF Judge 199 / 225
3. LF Bellinger 105 / 180
4. DH Stanton 157 / 158
5. 2B Chisholm 134 / 106
6. 1B Goldschmidt 74 / 169
7. C Wells 91 / 100
8. SS Volpe 74 / 104
9. 3B McMahon 98 / 44

B. 1B Rice 141 / 104
B. OF Dominguez 116 / 63
B. IF Caballero 81 / 129
B. IF Rosario 72 / 125
B. C Escarra 76 / 96

Santander starts in RF with Schneider on the bench. They must think that Davis can't handle the heat. 

Bo jogging:

https://x.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1976004867509600560

Todays Jays Lineup vRHP

1. DH Springer 178
2. LF Lukes 104
3. 1B Guerrero 129
4. 3B Barger 115
5. C Kirk 116
6. CF Varsho 129
7. LF Santander 70
8. 2B Clement 75
9. SS Gimenez 80


at least there's no Falefa.

Red Sox have only the lefty Hill to bring in for matchup purposes, but this lineup seems designed to make the red sox not want to do that in most any situation. The only guys really vulnerable to lefties there are Barger and Gimenez, but they're surrounded by lefty mashers in this lineup.

Santander's number sucks obviously but they wouldn't be playing him if they didn't think he was looking more like himself lately.

Do we think it’s impossible to put Springer in RF and Santander at DH? I assume for short term it would be ok on Springer’s body, no worse than on Santander’s. And he would have to be better.

Say the Blue Jays get out to a 2-0 lead early on. Should the manager throw Gausman out there in innings 3-7?

Mariners starting pulling away up 3-0 now in the 5th. Series probably over today.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
Trey Yesavage will be available out of the bullpen tonight

Kevin Gausman hasn’t been ruled out but it would require a “really unique” situation per John Schneider

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
19s
Bo Bichette (knee) has made progress in recent days. Jogged on field today. Hit in Toronto yesterday in a sim game vs. Bassitt and Scherzer (afterwards they flew down for the game). Still day to day. Unclear whether he’d be on roster if Jays advance. But some progress.

I would run relievers as long as possible until the first sign of trouble then bing Gausman in.

Varland 1
Dominguez 1
Gausman 4
Fluharty 1
Hoffman 1

That's assuming a lead and only gives you 8 innings. Maybe Lauer fills in an inning or two. I don't want to go to a game 5 because you can't maximize Gausman and Yesavage. I don't want to use Lauer today because he can be very valuable with Yesavage game 5.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
57s
Bo Bichette hit against Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt yesterday in Toronto, then they all travelled to New York together.

Schneider called it two days of good news for Bichette, who jogged on the field today. #BlueJays

That;s really interesting that Yesavage is available. That probably means he's in relief for game 4 and game 5 if necessary. Gausman goes for Game 5. So probably Lauer + BP if losing today or BP + Yesavage if leading.

yeah i was going to say this before (I swear) but springer at DH because you never want to take him out, while Santander there's many situations you may want to replace him.


Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
35s
Jays are using Springer at DH and Santander in RF because they don’t want to take Springer’s bat out of the game but could sub someone like Straw in for Santander for late defensive purposes if needed.

Tigers ain't dead yet!!! all tied!

7-3 tiggies!

That Springer DH logic is completely overthinking it if they actually think Springer is the better defender and that playing the OF doesn’t have an effect on his hitting.

tigers win. 5gm set and skubal goes game 5.

that means if Skubal wins he probably goes in game 3 of the ALCS, and either game 6 on short rest or game 7 on normal rest.

I feel like Varland is going to give up one or more runs tonight. Hope my gut feeling is wrong.

That loss of momentum in Game 2 was the nail in the coffin. A lack of a Game 4 starter was also a bad decision...

Game 5 will be interesting.

Wonder if the Yankee starter will get 3 innings done today. Should be fun to see.

1B Guerrero 15pa, .455babip, 403wrc+ --- RF Judge 14pa, .750babip, 387wrc+
DH Springer 15pa, .111babip, 100wrc+ --- DH Stanton 14pa, .300babip, 34wrc+
CF Varsho 13pa, .714babip, 430wrc+ ----- CF Grisham 14pa, .222babip, 59wrc+
C Alejandro 13pa, .091babip, 148wrc+ --- LF Bellinger 14pa, .222babip, 143wrc+
2B Clement 12pa, .545babip, 327wrc+ --- 2B Chisholm 12pa, .111babip, 93wrc+
SS Gimenez 12pa, .300babip, 100wrc+ ---- SS Volpe 12pa, .250babip, -42wrc+
LF Schneider 8pa, .667babip, 188wrc+ --- 1B Rice 13pa, .286babip, 35wrc+
RF Lukes 7pa, .333babip, 95wrc+ ---------- C Wells 9pa, .429babip, 88wrc+
3B Barger 7pa, .250babip, -28wrc+ -------- 3B McMahon 8pa, .250babip, 38wrc+

OF Santander 7pa, .400babip, 59wrc+ ---- UT Goldschmidt 3pa, .333babip, 88wrc+
IF Falefa 6pa, .000babip, -100wrc+ ------- IF Caballero 2pa, 1.000babip, 438wrc+
OF Straw 5pa, .333babip, 102wrc+ ------- IF Rosario 2pa, .500babip, 317wrc+

C Heineman 0pa ------------------------------ C Escarra 0pa
SS Bichette 0pa ------------------------------- OF Dominguez 0pa





RH Gausman 1gms, 5.2ip, 1.59era, 3.14fip, 4.77xfip ---- LH Fried 1gms, 3.0ip, 21.00era, 8.80fip, 6.01xfip
RH Bieber 1gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 2.76fip, 5.65xfip ------ LH Rodon 1gms, 2.1ip, 23.14era, 10.85fip, 8.58xfip
RH Yesavage 1gms, 5.1ip, 0.00era, -0.43fip, 0.44xfip --- RH Schlittler 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip
LH Lauer 1gms, 0.1ip, 81.00era, -2.86fip, -2.86xfip ---- RH Gil 1gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 11.39fip, 5.11xfip


RH Varland 3gms, 2.2ip, 6.75era, 10.64fip, 2.62xfip ---- RH Doval 2gms, 3.0ip, 0.00era, 2.47fip, 4.01xfip
LH Little 2gms, 1.2ip, 5.40era, 4.94fip, 7.71xfip -------- LH Hill 2gms, 2.2ip, 0.00era, 2.39fip, 4.12xfip
RH Dominguez 2gms, 1.2ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip -- RH Cruz 2gms, 2.0ip, 4.50era, 1.64fip, 2.41xfip
RH Fisher 2gms, 1.0ip, 9.00era, -0.86fip, -0.86xfip ------ RH Bednar 1gms, 1.2ip, 0.00era, 0.74fip, 0.74xfip
LH Fluharty 2gms, 1.0ip, 9.00era, 4.14fip, 7.22xfip ----- RH Blackburn 1gms, 1.1ip, 27.00era, 12.89fip, 4.29xfip
RH Hoffman 1gms, 1.0ip, 0.00era, 4.14fip, 7.22xfip ----- RH Williams 1gms, 1.1ip, 0.00era, 0.14fip, 2.45xfip
RH Rodriguez 1gms, 1.1ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip --- RH Warren 1gms, 4.2ip, 11.57era, 13.21fip, 6.03xfip
RH Nance 2gms, 1.1ip, 13.50era, 5.39fip, 11.17xfip ----- RH Weaver 2gms, 0.1ip, 81.00era, 12.14fip, 16.76xfip
LH Bruihl 1gms, 0.1ip, 54.00era, 42.14fip, 12.39xfip --- xx

"That loss of momentum in Game 2 was the nail in the coffin."

LOL, what. The Jays are up 2-1. They may end up in the coffin, but it's not even close to being nailed in.

take take take as many pitches as possible against this kid.

lol why on earth are they still pitching to vladdy.

Or just get hits and score runs. That works too.

Schlittler a beast. Just don't burn too many arms and move on to Game 5.

1 clean inning to start the game would be nice.

Yankees defense and bullpen have been great so far this series.

lol ump

Judge is too good of a hitter

Stop pitching to Judge. He's like Bonds level good. Let other guys beat you. Great first inning for Varland. He's thrown a lot in last few games but hopefully can go one more.

nice.

Varland might have another inning in him.

I think they might try to turn him into a starter next year.

big time at bat by Santander there. and it almost paid off. let's see if those 11 pitches pay off for the next guys now.

so hopefully lefty Fluharty can get through Wells-Volpe-McMahon-Grisham painlessly as they all suck vs lefties.

and then we'll see who they bring in for judge.

would be ideal if they could go RH vs 2-6 and LH vs 7-1 the rest of the game, without needing to use 2 guys in any of those segments.

The Jays might prefer to change pitchers mid-inning to make the other starter sit around more.

Blair has mentioned repeatedly that Atkins said they will look at Varland as a starter next spring.

mcmahon hits a hr off a lefty, who he can't hit at all.

that one really hurts.

Let’s score some damn runs!

RH 2-6, LH 7-1

Varland 1-6
Fluharty 7-1
Dominguez 2-6
Little/Lauer 7-1
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
Lauer/Lauer 7-1
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
Bruihl 7-1 ???
Fisher/Yariel/Hoffman 2-6
???

Marc would have IKF warming so they keep their bullpen arms fresh for Game 5.

The loss of momentum in Game 2, which was followed by six runs in the first three innings of Game 3? I'd love to lose momentum again if that's the outcome.

That McMahon homer was brutal.

bah. lots of good contact here. he's not fooling us.

Team is already 1-7 with RISP.

cubbies hold on to avoid the sweep.

oh man that's a good pitch. dammit.

Too close to take but it was a ball.

Hey Marc. Schlittler is good but after five innings the Blue Jays are up 2-1. This game is very, very winnable for Toronto.

Prediction? The Blue Jays win, and more crow is eaten by their detractors.

Looks like it'll be yariel next time through 2-6, but i think i'd rather see Fisher.

What about Yesavage?

Lucky break for Barger! Gotta find a way to bring him around to score. Incredibly valuable insurance run.

And get Yesavage warm.

honestly i'd rather schlittler stays in - we can't hit their pen at all.

This would be a good time for Varsho to get into one.

heh schneider is really doing these mind games well.

sending them out to the bullpen one at a time.

is Lauer pitching too well to pull him here.....?

Great job Lauer (Grisham out).

oh schneider is very tempted....

Great job Lauer (Bellinger out).

this is a weird one to me - if you were pulling Lauer anwyays now, you probably should have pulled him for bellinger (belly hits LHP better than any yank other than judge).

but whatever. great job lauer.

Feels like the key moment of the game — right now.

yeah that was massive. kinda thought john messed that up but then Dan mentioned chisholm was 0 for 7 vs yariel so there must be some kind of pitch type split going on there.


All the way through 6 and we have 3 guys with plenty of high leverage usage this year left - hoffman fisher little. not bad.


if yariel and little can take care of the bottom of the order again (up until grisham) it'll be interesting to see who comes out to face the Judge part of the order after that - Hoffman, Fisher (Yesavage? Gausman?).

Conner Greene is a bigger beast. What's the fun in your doomsaying? I didn't see Rodin get 12 Ks... feel free to stop being wrong anytime.

Now it’s the Yankees’ turn to make a critical defensive error.

Need to cash at least one in here.

What a moment for Lukes!!!

Nathan Lukes rocks!

LUUUUUKKKKKKKK

Chisholm’s error was worse than any committed by the Blue Jays yesterday.

Barger can ice this thing

is he bringing in a lefty against goldschmidt? please no.

9 more outs. Get it done any way you can. Extra runs so important to protect against random solo hr.

And (it goes without saying)…no walks

Little in against the guy who started this game specifically to hit lefties......i woulda given yariel one more hitter but what the hell Schneider is kind of doing a masterclass at the moment.

If Little walks the leadoff hitter, I swear....

One loud, loud one down, eight to go.

Every out so critical right now.

McMahon out of the game. Good.

I keep him in for rosario.

I want little against grisham for sure.

perfect perfect perfect.

still think schneider messed up by not leaving yariel in for goldschmidt but little saves him.

Get six outs before they score three runs, how hard could it be?

Hoffman or Fisher next inning?

Or Yesavage???

Great call uglyone. And great job Brendon Little. Nailed it.

Six outs to go!

So stressful. How about another 7 or 8 runs added on for insurance to help my breathing?

Started the game 40 minutes late and pkayed catchup through the ad breaks and such. Sitting through real time crunch time is rough.

Brilliant work Myles. Clutch hitter.

I get why he does it, but you can see Schneider's defence-first approach evident on decisions such as putting Straw in for the bottom of the seventh even with Santander coming up third the next inning.

Or, I should correct myself, it's obviously his offence-first approach, given Straw's first postseason RBI.

I need Valium

CHARGE THE MOUND!!!

nonsense stuff there.

NY Sore Losers down 5-1

how DARE they touch ernie

Enjoy Cancun, Doval.

don't IBB Judge to start the inning. bean him instead.

Myles Straw, man, myles straw.

Greatkins, indeed.

ok Fisher don't make them regret this. you are awesome.

https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1517985117460869120

Save the beaning for '26. Six outs is still a lot to get. 

thank you ump for that beauty!

but Fisher still had to use it! and he did!

*Love* the K of Judge by Fisher. Living well is the best revenge. And that could be Judge’s last memory of hitting in 2025.

oh no.

Bad walk by Fisher. But he got two big outs.

Hoffman time.

Hoffman on in the 8th! Bruihl to seal the series?

hold me.

I really hate watching Hoffman pitch.

I mean, I really love watching Hoffman pitch.

i give hoffman one more batter. Bad result -- Yesavage time.

oh man oh man oh man thank sweet jesus.

just enough, hoffer.

Whew

No sweat

God I hate walking guys up big. Hoffman throwing 97 does bode well though.

Can Gausman pitch the ninth please?

hyperventilating

look at those fans streaming for the exits.

weak, weak stuff. it's a four run deficit and they're the yankeed.

Lukes trying to Hoffman-proof this game.

weak, weak stuff. it's a four run deficit and they're the yankeed.

Yeah, but on the other hand, New York City traffic.

heh. true.

unfortunately i'd be surprised if we get through this without Judge coming up again.

who is warming

Hoffman still looking iffy. But every out is massive and he just got one.

I'm not convinced Schneider will warm someone. He'll win or lose it with Hoffman.

that defense out there for TO may be one of the best all time for this team

excellent defense by both. clutch.

Yaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!

Bring on the Marigers!

Great job Jeff Hoffman! ALCS here we come!

And — Bo is starting to feel better. What a day.

YESSSSSSSS!!!!!

amazing.

and yes, thank you hoffman. you got it done.

Greatkins >>>

Good news for the doubters. They can now get ALDS game 5 tickets at a steep discount.

That error is going to haunt Jazz for a long time.

I thought these games were supposed to get easier to watch the older you get. What a group!

The Brewers can't close the deal, Cubs still alive.
Mariners can't close the deal, Tigers still alive.
Phillies trying to stay alive, ahead 3-1.

Meanwhile....

And that's some masterful managing tonight. That's the manager of the year right there.

The good news is that i don't think either SEA or DET has near as many lefties so we won't need a 4th LH next series. We can bring a 4th SP instead. And heck we should probably bring a 5th SP instead of Nance too.

John Schneider really came into his own as a manager this year.

Gritty win. Very much a team win.

I don't think there's any doubt Bruihl is dropped for Bassitt or Scherzer.

Personally, I'd keep Nance, as he's been better this year than he pitched in the ALDS, but it seems Schneider doesn't trust him, so it would be worth taking someone he'll use.

Start spreading the news...

I like nance but man you gotta think Schneider saw Warren soak up all those clutch innings in a loss to save their bullpen and sees how valuable that can be, especially in a long series.

Obviously the pitchers performing was the important part, but great managed game by John Schneider. This was not a high probability win based on the matchup, but props to everyone involved to get this done.

On to the ALCS!

So I didn’t actually watch the game tonight. Superstitions and the sheer annoyance of yesterday made me dread putting it on the television at home. Didn’t keep up with or check social media or group chats… instead I listened on the radio via headphones from the 4th inning onward and realizing this still did little to relieve the anxiety, thought I’d go for a walk and listen. Honestly felt like I could’ve walked from Scarborough to Mimico and back multiple times fueled solely by that tension.

I must say I especially looked the part of a lunatic when Straw singled in the fifth run, with my fist pump “yeah!” as I was crossing Queen and Woodbine. A group under a gazebo in Kew Park had the game on a projector and as tempting as that was to join them for the ninth…. Never mess with what’s working.

What a team, what a season. They definitely, uh, sounded more like themselves tonight.

Yeah, I felt tense all the way through until the last out. I'm really happy for the team and it was so good beating the Yankees in their home park!

Best of all, the Jays get to rest up while the Tigers and Mariners play game 5.

Amazing. Astounding. Astonishing. I don't like the managing yesterday but today was very nicely done. Congrats to the boys in Blue.

This is about as enjoyable a clip as you'll ever see:

https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1976119989817221492

It's still hard to believe the Jays have convincingly taken down the 2024 World Series runner-up. What a season so far. And it continues....

Lol i love the dedication, Eephus! We are all crazy here.

I didn’t check in til just after 10:30 est. Once they lost game three I went off radar for this one. Was nervous about the pitching matchup but the Yankees were just too much Judge and too little anyone else.

John Schneider really came into his own as a manager this year.

It's something I've been thinking about - I do have a Report Card to write eventually, not that there's any hurry. He's now the fourth man to manage the Jays into the ALCS, and I've been thinking about what strikes me as most distinctive about him as compared with Cox, Gaston, and Gibbons. Anyway...

I've lost track of how many big RBI hits Nathan Lukes has poked into the opposite field...

Myles Straw. When fly balls are hit in his general direction, a feeling of contentment comes all over me.

Santander is having some really impressive at bats. He's not getting rewarded. Yet.

i love the dedication, Eephus!

The fruit doesn't fall far from the tree, I'm proud to say. I was outside on the stoop having a smoke (to calm the nerves!) when Springer drove in the go-ahead run. If I'd known I was going to be out there another ninety minutes, I'd have worn something warmer.

Not making anything personal, but this post from a few hours ago didn’t age well:

Schlittler a beast. Just don't burn too many arms and move on to Game 5.

Heck of a game. Heck of a series.

Biggest difference between Schneider and Cox is Schneider learns faster - Cox kept doing his platoons instantly even when they were flopping due to KC figuring out he was going to do that. Schneider only flopped out once with that (game 3) and said 'screw it' after that and went back to 7 innings of solid offense, then pull everyone for defense if in the lead. Always felt Cox was a great regular season manager who flopped in the post-season due to not being willing to adjust when needed. Gaston adjusted big time (never PH in regular season unless forced, but post-season he'd use a rookie in that role if needed). Gibbons I can't really recall (it was the 2 years after my wife died so my memories of those playoffs are minimal - I was focused 100% on my kids and surviving).

Marc is having a tonne of fun leaning into being the nay-sayer around here. Sorry if I'm spoiling the joke, Marc.

Hoffman got seven swings-and-misses in the ninth - he's going to be the closer, and that's a good sign for the ALCS.

It's Lukes and Clement and Straw as much as Yesavage and Vladdy that make this team increasingly appear to be a team of destiny.

It's been a bit surreal for me to hear all the deference paid the yankees this series - to me this is a team that has never scared me on paper or on the field from the start of the season.

and i'm looking at their lineup tonight and wondering how Boone, while trying to matchup-proof his lineup, still somehow managed to play right into our hands by giving us a lefty-runway right through the 7-1 slots in their lineup....and I realized he simply didn't have the players to make it any tougher on us. There was nothing great he could have done to avoid putting a highly matchup-exploitable lineup on the field tonight.

And that's just the hitting - never mind that their SP aren't intimidating in the least and their bullpen is pretty much just bad outside of Bednar.

Just a far too flawed team that lived off one supreme player and a lineup good enough to beat up on bad teams.