The Jays have already announced Cease and Scherzer are going the next two games.

Thank you - just put this together quickly and didn't do a real check for pitching. So my source was behind a bit. Ah well. Updated now. Wonder who goes down? Seabold has to be one, and I'd be damn tempted to just dump Corbin now - it was a miracle to get as much out of him as the Jays did.

i question the lineup choices tonight but i gotta say the boys are playing hard.

and so glad to have SWR back in the fold i never wanted to lose him even if i liked the trade.

I keep coming back to this:

Cease likely bumps Seabold
Scherzer likely bumps Macko
Garcia might be as early as Monday and then what?

You could DFA SWR but the sample size is TINY (also for Seabold but he's a fringe guy) and he's made a nice impression tonight. Not that we don't sometimes see a guy look really good the first time they use him).

I wonder, would you demote or IL Fisher just to give him a rest? That would be very bold but if there's no injury, you'll lose someone you don't want to lose if you don't get creative.

Then there's Bieber, maybe as early as next Wednesday.

I say Fisher because if Macko is already down it would be awkward to give him the rest even though both need it. But neither one would be there longer than necessary and so you're just waiting for someone to get hurt, the hard choice is still out there if no one does.

fwiw fangraphs combined projections (before tonight):

Cease 3.42era 3.30fip
Gausman 3.80era 3.67fip
Bieber 3.83era 3.71fip
Yesavage 3.89era 3.83fip
SWR 4.45era 4.39fip
Scherzer 4.62era 4.67fip
Corbin 4.97era 4.59fip

Wonder if the Jays might be working on a trade to clear out some of the out of option relievers they have - get something for 2 or 3 of them rather than lose them for nothing - I'm thinking Nance, Hoffman (doubt anyone takes that contract on), Corbin, Seabold all being options to trade away for a bucket of balls. Heck, if IKF could result in McAdoo who knows? As to how well Nance has done - just 12 PA in high leverage (down 3 doesn't count tonight) 705 OPS against this year, 763 lifetime (98 PA) - in low leverage 648 OPS lifetime 429 PA, 554 this year (63 PA plus whatever tonight).

Springer and Vlad absolutely killing the team right now.

"him" means Fluharty

After the Pinango lead off triple the next three hitters k’d by swinging at ball after ball. It’s been a problem all year long.

SWR looked good.
The fastball plays at 93/94 due to the extension.
The curve is really good even though it's just used for strike 1. Always been a plus pitch.

He's just 25. Could be a real long man which means Miles could be used for middle relief.

IKF was having a really good year when they traded him.

IMO the pen is really shaping up as the rotation shapes up.

Rotation: Gausman-Cease-Yesavage-Scherzer-Bieber

Pen: Varland-Rogers-Hoffman-Fisher-Fluharty-Miles-SWR with 1 slot for Nance-Macko-Seabold-Garcia-etc. Based on results Macko deserves it, based on contract Garcia gets it once healthy. We'll see soon enough. Might see a phantom injury for Nance or something. Options are Yesavage-Varland-Fisher-Fluharty-Macko. Obviously Yesavage & Varland won't be optioned. Fisher-Fluharty have both been core to the team. So Macko is almost a lock to go down again.

Not fair perhaps that Corbin has to be dumped too - but he isn't a reliever, so once Bieber is back he has to be let go if Scherzer doesn't get hurt again.

It was a really tough AB for Lukes.

Springer and Vladdy are swinging to avoid striking out looking. If Springer is not ready for a first pitch fastball, he shouldn't lead off.

The Phillies are having a bad year offensively but it's kinda like the opposite of the Jays.
Schwarber, Harper and Marsh are the only ones hitting.
Schwarber has 23 HR but only 40 RBI as the bottom of the lineup is never on bases.
A lefty should have done better, but Garcia mashed lefties as Corbin found out.

on Surface numbers, there are several teams that could make some use of Corbin. I'm told the advanced stuff don't look so good for him but just being league average would be helpful to some of them if the Jays just have to part ways.

Sad to watch Springer now - seems like a great guy but he is hurting the team. The moment they get Barger back Springer is the one who has to go (IL phantom injury, release, whatever). DH Piñango with Lukes-Sanchez-Barger sharing LF/RF, sometimes one of them DH's or Vlad DH's with McAdoo at 1B. I like the current Clement/Gimenez semi-platoon at SS with Clement at 2B vs RHP and McAdoo vs LHP - sometimes have McAdoo go to 1B or 3B to give Vlad or Okamoto a semi-day off vs LHP at DH. Could put Barger at 3B and give one of Okamoto or Vlad a full day off even vs a RHP now and then.

Baseball can be brutal but if the Jays are going to contend they need guys to either produce or leave.

The first step on Springer is getting him out of lead-off (AT LEAST vs RHP)

If they're not willing to do that, they're not going to cut him (unless there's some disagreement between John and Ross and they just have to take him (George) away from him (John) but that would be a stunning move.

Barring injury he'll be here until at least August in some capacity.

So my healthy lineup is...
C (2): Kirk/Valenzuela
1B (1): Vlad
2B/SS (3): Clement/Gimenez/McAdoo
3B (1): Okamoto
LF/RF (3): Lukes/Barger/Sanchez
CF (2): Varsho/Straw
DH (1): Pinango

Odds are the Jays will keep Springer up and send Pinango down anyways, but if Springer doesn't start to hit it'd be a big mistake imo. Down to a 78 wRC+ after his 0-4 tonight. Pinango is at 127 to lead the club.

After tonights game...
120's wRC+: Pinango, Valenzuela, McAdoo, Clement
110's: Lukes, Sanchez
100's: Vlad, Okamoto, Varsho (need these 3 to improve badly)
80's: Straw
70's: Springer, Gimenez
Heineman at 16, Barger 1, Kirk 60 but safe to say Barger & Kirk will do far better once back. Heck, once back Kirk might DH vs LHP to give Pinango a rest, or Valenzuela might DH instead if he needs a break.

Looking at 2027 the team might be in good shape, assuming Vlad gets back to being himself (a 130s wRC+ hitter who has the odd 160 season, and the odd 110's). C: Kirk/Valenzuela, 1B: Vlad, 2B: Clement, 3B: Okamoto, SS: Gimenez, IF: McAdoo, OF: Lukes/Barger/Sanchez/Straw/Pinango with 1 slot to be determined (if Varsho returns or if the Jays sign/trade for someone else - Lukes/Straw as a semi-platoon in CF isn't the worst thing possible). Straw is on team options for 27 and 28, the rest are either fully signed or don't have enough service time to be free agents. Plus Kasevich might be ready for SS/IF, Schneider seems to alternate good/horrid years, Schreck might be decent, Sean Keys was pounding AA (993 OPS) and is now in AAA at 1B/3B, Jace Bohrofen in the OF also has a 900+ OPS in AA, as does Jay Harry (SS/2B/OF), Nimmala showing hope in AA at 20 hitting 308/375/369 (power needs to come but at 20 that is damn impressive in AA - Bo at 20 hit 286/343/453 in AA as a comparison point). Realistically those are the minor league hitters likely to be able to help at some point in '27 and maybe in '26 if needed. A+ guys will need '27 in AA/AAA before getting their shot outside of something 'wow' happening.

The Jays demoted Fisher last season when he was one of the best RP’s on the team, while letting Hoffman be the worst RP in the league from May-Sept without thinking of moving him from the closer role. Springer will play everyday and Pinango will be sent down. I’d be shocked if it’s anything else (barring injury).

Barger's gonna have to earn his way back up imo.

Old friend Eric Lauer starts tomorrow for the dodgers against Skenes. He’s got 10+ in dodger blue and given up 3 runs so far. Mind you one outing was against the Rockies.

Fangraphs on Jeff Hoffman's BABIP.

It's the 2nd worst all time. The only pitcher worse is the original "Mayday" Malone, whose only games in the FG database were 3 complete games in 3 days in 1872. Gave up 86 runs on 96 hits.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jeff-hoffman-and-the-worst-babip-of-all-time/

... I'd be damn tempted to just dump Corbin now...

He didn't do himself any favours last night, but I wouldn't be too quick to get rid of Corbin. Max Scherzer will be 42 next month, and wasn't great or consistently healthy last year. Shane Bieber's rehab stint has not been inspiring so far. Trey Yesavage has given up 11 walks and 12 runs in his last 3 starts. Spencer Miles hasn't pitched this much since he was in college in 2022, so who knows how durable or effective he'll be.

"Too many pitchers" could switch to "does anyone have Jose Urena's number?" very quickly. (I just checked and it looks like Urena's in Japan this year)

Corbin will not move to the pen.
Best bet is use SWR as a long man and Miles as a multi inning guy.

just wanted to look at something....


Age 22

Pinango (A+): 122pa, 197wrc+
Barger (A+): 292pa, 153wrc+

Pinango (AA): 351pa, 81wrc+
Barger (AA): 198pa, 148wrc+

Pinango (AAA): ---
Barger (AAA): 36pa, 195wrc+


Age 23

Pinango (AA): 192pa, 169wrc+
Barger (AA): ---

Pinango (AAA): 341pa, 96wrc+
Barger (AAA): 397pa, 96wrc+


Age 24

Pinango (AAA): 92pa, 125wrc+
Barger (AAA): 249pa, 131wrc+

Pinango (MLB): 111pa, 127wrc+
Barger (MLB): 225pa, 69wrc+


Age 25

Pinango (MLB): ---
Barger (MLB): 502pa, 107wrc+


Age 26

Pinango (MLB): ---
Barger (MLB): 28pa, 1wrc+

Unfortunately for Pinango he is slow, a bad outfielder, and can't play 3B.

true, then again Barger just had an injury that might significantly hurt his one quality defensive asset - his arm.

Is Barger even going to get a chance to play 3B enough for that to be a useful skill? Okamoto's started 62 of the team's 67 games there, with Clement picking up the rest. McAdoo hasn't been able to get a single inning there, despite it being the position he's played the most in the minors.

They aren't going to take Okamoto out of the lineup for McAdoo (another RHB) but if the lefty bats are rolling then yes they will give Barger occasional starts there vs. RHP to try and maximize the offense. Positional flexibility always has value.

what Pinango has done at least is make it easier to try and move Sanchez out. Obviously I prefer if Barger plays. Sanchez seems every bit as bad defensively as Pinango if not worse, and the hitting profile seems very similar.

Would be cool if we could flip a bunch of mediocres like Sanchez/Schneider/Schreck/Kasevich/McAdoo into maybe an overpaid but legit quality righty middle IF.

Two different situations seem fairly straightforward to me with the current personnel: a) assuming Barger's arm injury allows him to play 3B (a big if), then the right solution would be sit Okamoto semi regularly against RH pitchers and play Barger at 3B; and b) to sit Gimenez against most LH pitchers and play McAdoo at 2B and Clement at SS. They aren't likely to do that but they bit the bullet on more flexible position player usage last year so there's a chance that they will.

You didn't like Gimenez batting 6th last night against a guy holding lefties to a .359 OPS this year?

I'm only surprised that they haven't had Gimenez hitting cleanup most of the year. Kidding aside, I thought that last night epitomized the offensive issues the team has had for long stretches of this year and they have very little to do with position player injuries. Inflexible position player usage, hacking at pitches out of the zone and failing to grind starting pitcher pitch counts.

Trying to trade one of the surplus LFers for a middle infielder (or a RH corner OFer) makes a lot of sense. A few guys that might make sense.

Matt Mclain: Once a great prospect, he's faltered and Reds have a bunch of other guys in the infield. He has a 91 WRC+ overall but 130 against lefties.

Gleyber Torres: If Tigers out of it makes a lot of sense. Free agent and can hit although not big splits and those are reverse so more of an everyday guy.

Oswaldo Peraza: Looks good this year. Is only 25 and not a free agent until 2030 and can play all over.

Proposed batting order (v. RH)

Clement
Lukes
Vlad
Sanchez
Valenzuela
Okamoto
Varsho
Springer
Gimenez

odds that John ever hits Springer 8th approach zero so

Clement
Lukes
Vlad
Sanchez
Okamoto
Springer
Varsho
Valenzuela
Gimenez

Springer has actually hit better than Okamoto since Kaz's OPS peaked on 5/8.

Guerrero leading off tonight with Clement batting third. It's early June and that order actually makes sense.

I don’t see Okamoto sitting or being platooned much. After some rough times early on he's up to an average 102wrc+ vRHP now to go along with his good 122wrc+ vLHP. He also seems to be an above average 3B defensively, and better than Barger there.

Okamoto vRHP by month:

APR 79wrc+, 35.1k%
MAY 102wrc+, 35.3k%
JUN 192wrc+, 27.3k%

Barger put up a 115wrc+ vRHP last year which isn't all that much better than what Okamoto is doing tbh.

Sanchez, Lukes, and Pinango is maybe the worst defensive OF in team history.

Weird, I thought 115 was a lot better than 102 tbh.

Last 7 days

1. C Valenzuela 20pa, 261wrc+
2. 2B Clement 29pa, 188wrc+
3. LF Pinango 21pa, 161wrc+
4. RF Lukes 28pa, 144wrc+
5. 3B Okamoto 29pa, 139wrc+
6. SS Gimenez 24pa, 96wrc+
7. DH Sanchez 18pa, 69wrc+
8. CF Varsho 10pa, 42wrc+
9. 1B Guerrero 29pa, 20wrc+

B. C Heineman 7pa, 96wrc+
B. IF McAdoo 3pa, 88wrc+
B. OF Straw 16pa, 56wrc+
B. UT Springer 26pa, 36wrc+


Last 14 days

1. C Valenzuela 36pa, 178wrc+
2. LF Pinango 35pa, 162wrc+
3. 2B Clement 52pa, 161wrc+
4. 3B Okamoto 53pa, 151wrc+
5. RF Lukes 48pa, 148wrc+
6. DH Sanchez 32pa, 140wrc+
7. 1B Guerrero 51pa, 75wrc+
8. CF Varsho 35pa, 73wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 44pa, 73wrc+

B. IF McAdoo 110pa, 124wrc+
B. UT Springer 48pa, 69wrc+
B. OF Straw 21pa, 68wrc+
B. C Heineman 14pa, 60wrc+

X. UT Sosa 4pa, 10wrc+



Last 30 days

1. RF Lukes 53pa, 168wrc+
2. DH Sanchez 71pa, 152wrc+
3. 2B Clement 105pa, 147wrc+
4. C Valenzuela 75pa, 134wrc+
5. LF Pinango 84pa, 116wrc+
6. CF Varsho 94pa, 114wrc+
7. 1B Guerrero 111pa, 77wrc+
8. 3B Okamoto 108p, 75wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 94pa, 64wrc+

B. IF McAdoo 11pa, 124wrc+
B. UT Springer 108pa, 74wrc+
B. C Heineman 27pa, 34wrc+
B. OF Straw 44pa, 10wrc+

X. UT Sosa 33pa, -22wrc+
X. UT Schneider 18pa, -23wrc+

Yeah 115 is definitely better than 102 but i was also talking about the trendlines there too and i'm not so there's a huge difference in where they're both at vrhp right now, especially since it looks like Okamoto has a better glove at the hot corner.

Kaz has been a streak monster

First 4 games (irrelevant sample) - .333/.444/.733/1.178
Next 14 - .148/.207/.167/.374
Next 19 - .309/.405/.691/1.096
Next 16 - .138/.203/.190/.393
Last 12 - .302/.375/.535/.910

Sanchez, Lukes, and Pinango is maybe the worst defensive OF in team history.

1998 saw an outfield of Tony Phillips, Shawn Green, and Jose Canseco.

Wow I am very happy with this line up change. Putting more urgency on Vlad but somehow giving him less pressure while taking ABs away from Springer, all in one move.

If you're going to use that outfield, it makes sense to do it with Cease on the mound. Most batters either strike out or hit the ball on the ground.

... (continued)

It would be perfect if Vlad was at 1B instead of DH and Springer was hitting in the bottom of the line up with john doe and John Doe playing 2B instead of Ernie who should be at SS.

FYI BEAUXITES...

my message was flagged for spam. I changed "Okamoto" and "McAdoo" to "John Doe" and "john Doe" and the spam filter was removed. I noticed some posters mentioning they were losing posts.

Perhaps it's the name of one of our Blue Jays players (McAdoo?) which is triggering the filter.

Glevin - you either weren't here for it, or chose to forget the 1998 season when Shawn Green was in CF for 32 games, Jose Canseco in RF for 26, Canseco in LF for 50, and a 39 year old Tony Phillips in LF for 11 and RF for 4. The 3 of them were together out there a few times. WOW was that ugly. July 28th 1998 was one of those games, mixed with Delgado (stone glove at 1B), Tony Fernandez at 2B (late career, was poor then), Ed Sprague at 3B (never great). Amazing Clemens led the league in the triple crown for pitching that year despite stuff like that (man those PEDs must've been something).

In 1989 we saw George Bell in LF 134 times, Mookie Wilson in CF 22 times, and a mess in RF including Kelly Gruber 14 times (3 times in LF - good 3B, lousy OF). July 5th saw Bell-Junior Felix (OK in RF, not good in CF)-Gruber in the OF. Yikes. Poor Jimmy Key with that OF gave up 5 runs in 8 innings.

Those 2 situations came to mind right away. Before mid-89 we had Barfield (WOW) in RF most of the time which more than compensated for Bell's adventures. By the late 90's we lost Devon White so the OF was a perpetual adventure.

I've had that happen too dalimon5 - not sure why. The spam filter is a weird thing - I've had big issues on Facebook with posts being rejected for no reason automatically. So it isn't just you.

I'm 100% in favor of aggressive juggling of the lineup.

vs LHP: have McAdoo at 2B, Clement SS, Gimenez benched. Pinango benched, Springer DH, Straw in for one of Varsho-Lukes-Sanchez (not ideal, but keeps them fresh)

vs RHP: Clement 2B, Gimenez SS, Pinango DH, Springer benched.

Sometimes have McAdoo at 1B or 3B to give Vlad or Okamoto a day off (or semi-day off at DH). Those days you can move Pinango to LF if you must (guy is a born DH) and bench Lukes or Sanchez.

Actual it's about half ground balls, quarter fly balls, quarter line drives.

Does anyone think we'll ever see Sosa in a Jays uniform again? I really hope not. Like McAdoo 1000x better as the kid can actually field and hit. FG projects him to hit for an 83-100 wRC+ for the rest of 2026 (McAdoo) with an OPS in the high 600's for the next 3 years if given a shot. Seems reasonable. Sosa it sees optimistically as a 82-93 wRC+ guy for the rest of 2026, with a 3 year projection also in the high 600's. I'd rather risk it on McAdoo myself, give the kid a shot. Yeah, Sosa is only in his age 26 season but he looks so very, very toasty when playing.

A little hyperbole on my part. I'm sure Jays also had terrible OFers earlier but this is definitely one of the two st I remember. I agree that with Cease on mound is the time to do it though.

Buffalo released RHP Jesse Hahn, 3B Riley Tirotta, LHP Michael Plassmeyer, DH Eloy Jiménez
to Buffalo Bisons C Alejandro Kirk, RHP Tanner Andrews outright to Buffalo Bisons.

to New Hampshire C C.J. Stubbs, activated LHP Javen Coleman

Vancouver released C Hayden Gilliland, OF Brennan Orf.

to Dunedin LF Hedbert Perez, 2B Cade Doughty, LHP Luis Fonseca

to FCL Blue Jays LHP Ramon Suarez, OF Jake Casey, C Alex Stone on a rehab assignment to FCL Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays optioned LHP Adam Macko to Buffalo

sorry Eloy to Buff

ah nice we're finally getting some milb cleansing.

Tirotta the casualty for Keys promotion. Eloy never makes it back.

Gililand and Orf too old for their levels to care about but Gililand always seems to have hit well for a catcher and Orf was actully red hot lately but yeah, no loss there.

They;re still trying to make something of Doughty but i'm not hopeful.

But very nice to see Jake Casey back. I like him as a dark horse prosepct.


I expect some more cleansing coming up as Kirk and Barger return.

ah Eloy gets another chance. still might not last long tho.

The Eloy thing is nearly as confusing as the Sosa stuff. (not really but still don't get it.). He can't hit and hasn't hit in years and the bar for a DH to hit is very high and he can't do anything else and he's 29 and going to take abs away from prospects who might have some sort of future. What's the thinking here??

Tirotta was part of the large group of older AAA / AAAA guys who are kinda just holding spots right now but could easily be pushed aside for some of the more promising guys in AA.

When the big club is healthy, and assuming schneider is part of that group and not Sosa, what i call the 'quad A' team looks like this:

CF Munguia 27
RF Ward 26
LF
3B McCarty 27
SS Lantigua 28
2B Mendoza 26
1B Tirotta 27
C Heineman 35 / MacIver 29 / Simoneit 29
DH Jimenez 29

and what i think of /hope for as the 'true AAA' squad looks like this (asterisk = in AA right now):

CF Clase 24
RF Schreck 25
LF Bohrofen* 24
3B McAdoo 24
SS Kasevich 25
2B Rivera 25
1B Keys 23
C Parker* 23
DH Pinango 24

UT Cunningham* 25
OF Micheletti* 24
IF Goodwin* 24
C Stone* 24
C Planchart* 24

I think all these guys are deserving enough and at a good age to be in AAA this year, so really we could lose all of that "quad A" team to make room. That probably won't happen but I'm sure we'll see a number of them dropped soon enough just due to guys coming back from the IR.

Nice subtle dig there, Dan, wondering why McAdoo is in the lineup tonight against a righty but not last night against the lefty.

When your team doesn't walk and doesn't hit HR's you are at the mercy of the vagueries of the hit sequencing of your long sequence offence. Hence 5 hits and one hit batter in 3 innings gets you zippo.

Didn’t get the result but I loved that AB from McAdoo. Hung in there against legit major league stuff from Kerkering. Don’t think he’s an exciting hitter potentially but wouldn’t surprise me if he has a Ty France like career.

looks like Cease' hammy's ok.

Sportsnet Stats
@SNstats
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26m
Dylan Cease's 58% whiff rate tonight is the highest in #BlueJays50 history by a starting pitcher (minimum 20 batters faced)

Fun game. Phillies are my adopted NL team (totally unbaseball related) so love this close game… Pinango walk off is my call.

Nevermind. It’s this kind of season isn’t it.

pretty cool they had Varland's back the one time he messes up. even against the mighty duran.

good win. now win the series please.

Great piece of hitting by Valenzuela.

Nevermind Nevermind. I do not know what to think anymore.

No walks. 1 HR. Still got the win..

Great win. Cease is just so nasty. 29 whiffs tonight!

Great win. Vlad coming around. What will Atkins do to increase the offense? What can he do?

Right now the best they can do is bench Springer so Lukes-Varsho/Straw-Sanchez can be everyday in the OF and Pinango is the everyday DH. Maybe use Springer vs LHP (234/321/404) as Pinango is 150/150/250 vs LHP and (pre-tonight) 341/385/518 vs RHP (Springer is 191/269/321 vs RHP).

The IF is good with Okamoto/Vlad/Clement everyday and Gimenez vs RHP (247/279/401) and McAdoo vs LHP (not enough PA to matter). Once Kirk is back he and Valenzuela could DH/C alternating vs LHP while one or the other is catching vs RHP.

Really, who in that lineup outside of Straw and Gimenez (and probably McAdoo) is likely to be sub 100 OPS+? Straw and Gimenez are defense first guys, McAdoo is the 13th man on the roster so you don't expect much. Find a solid RH bat who can cover 2B/1B and get him. Schneider was that last year but now does nothing but walk it seems.

Milwaukee is playing the Athletics at the minor league park in Las Vegas. Last night, the final score was Milwaukee 15, Athletics 14 in 12 innings. The over/under for tonight's game was 13.0, and it's currently tied 3-3 in the 5th. To compare, the over/under for games at Coors Field is usually set at 10.5 or 11.5 total runs.

Wow, another 3-run homer. Athletics 6, Milwaukee 3 - 5th inning.

bluejayprospectus: Wondering if this recent stretch from Brandon Valenzuela is anything, has his FV changed at all? Also are the Blue Jays one of the better teams at developing and identifying catchers?

Brendan Gawlowski: On my radar to dive into. When the lists are done I want to write a piece (or a couple) on the guys whose performance has surprised me most. He’s on the short list there.

Wanna mention that Schneider made good choices in the 9th with both pinch runners and the stolen base. Good to mention at times when the manager does the right thing.

Couldn't agree more and he rolled out that new look line up as well. Only move I really didn't like was Hoffman with a 1 run lead but that performance was nasty.

Springer was on deck when the inning ended.
They could have kept the lefty to start the 9th but the closer always gets a full inning so Sanchez stayed and was able to tied the game.
Huge night for him.

Hoffman has had one terrible appearance since being removed from the Closer role. He's going to pitch in close games whether people like it or not, at least until the bullpen is reinforced further via trade (and perhaps Garcia's return).

As long as those appearances are in the 6th and 7th (barring extreme circumstances) i'm good with him getting used like that.

I think he's had more than one bad outing since losing the closer role tho tbh.

I used "terrible" for a reason. Good relievers do give up runs occasionally.

Fair!

As I said the other day, there’s a risk (given whose ABs they will be replacing) that Kirk and Barger returning might actually hurt the offense. However, one way in which their return might help is in team batting approach. The most noticeable difference (there are others like a drop in SLG%) in 2026 offence vs 2025 is in OBP. A major component of that drop is due to the fact that the Jays have stopped taking BBs in 2026. They’ve become hactastic. In 2026, the MLB average walk rate is 9.9%. The Jays are 29th in baseball with a BB% of a tick over 7%. The Yankees are first with a walk rate over 11%. That’s a massive difference. In 2025, the Jays were 13th in BB% and walked at pretty much league average rate. The personnel changes from 2025 to 2026 don’t explain the drop.

While it's true that they have stopped taking walks I think we have to seriously look at the impact of Kirk and Lukes missing (including his vertigo-phase). With Lukes back in the line up its a completely different line up. Yesterday against Wheeler I was watching his pitch count creep up with Lukes battling every AB and pushing the limit higher and higher. It looked like Wheeler would be out early but then after Lukes he would retire the other guys in 10 pitches or less and "restore" his high pitch count until Lukes came up again.

The impact guys like Lukes and Kirk have when healthy is massive. Lukes can battle and Kirk can hit elite pitching. The only main drawback for me compared to last year is you're missing two elements that are gone...Bo Bichette who was a 2nd hitter who would tee off on elite pitching like Kirk and Davis Schneider who battled pitchers similar to Lukes from the right side, but Lukes is actually holding his own against southpaws in terms of "battling."

Springer, Vlad, Sanchez, Okamoto, Ernie and Gimenez combined is easy for a pitcher to navigate because they've all been chasing pitches, missing "cookies" and generally just not battling.

I think the biggest question to a return to a deep playoff run for me, this year, is "Can the front office turn some of their good young players into one better player to put into the line up?" Is there any avenue where they can pick 1 of Sanchez, Pinango, Sanchez, Santander and Schneider to keep and trade the rest for a controllable replacement? That would leave Varsho, Lukes, Springer, Straw, leftover player X from list above and then better replacement arrival player. That player needs to have power and be able to hit near the top and be better than Sanchez. Mike Trout or Brandon Lowe. It's not a simple task and there's no perfect match which makes it the most interesting question for me regarding the Front Office upgrading this team from "competitive" to "competing for the top."

Nobody goes out there looking for a walk.
Walks are a product of the teams pitching to them as much as anything else.
The 2025 Blue Jays were hitting .265 with an OBP of .333. The 2026 Jays are hitting .249 with an OBP of .312.
OBP is down by 22 points but 16 of those are due to hitting not the walks.

Lukes' walk rate is 3.5% compared to 8.7% last year, but I don't see a problem.
He walked twice in May for an OBP of .500. Only one 1 so far in June but his OBP is .375.

They'll walk when they face bad pitchers, not Sanchez/Wheeler and the likes.

Kirk will hopefully be replacing Heineman's ABs, not Valenzuela's, so there isn't too much of a risk to the offense there. Valenzuela will go from starting 3 out of every 5 games down to 2.

Obviously the above doesn't apply if they make the mistake of optioning down Heineman.

Er, Valenzuela.

The prudent thing to do is option Valenzuela and keep both Heiman and Valenzuela in the fold to protect against potential injuries.

We do have other catchers in our system in case of injury.

Or you can just not worry about losing a fungible backup C with a .410 OPS. This team can't afford that downgrade 40% of the time.

For good reason, Heineman's playing time has been a lot less than 40% since the end of the first month of the season. He's only started in 11 of the last 39 games and has been pinch hit for early in 2 of those games. There is zero reason to worry about losing Heineman on waivers and Kirk is going to cut into more of Valenzuela's ABs that might otherwise have been expected.

yeah imo can't stress out about losing a 35yr old C who you're holding out hope can return to a .600ops at some point.

tbh there's a decent chance he squeaks through waivers despite his great year last year.

Nigel not sure i'd worry about that. Kirk projects to hit around as well as Valenzuela's hit so far (123wrc+), and valenzuela is far from a lock to keep near that level, so getting Kirk back is all positive.

Heineman's had 35% of the catcher PA so far so if we can go from 65% to 100% of catcher's PA being near 120wrc+ type quality that's gonna be a big improvement either way.

If we get lucky and Valenzuela keeps hitting at that level, then those two will inevitably start eating into the DH (and PH) slots as well, unless Springer gets back to hitting at that level again.


Barger's return is a different animal - and tbh the longer he takes to come back and the more Pinango and Sanchez and Lukes keep hitting, imo it's hard to see how he's just handed a starting spot back right away - because you're right that there'd be a good chance that he'd be a downgrade. but afaik he's not even on the verge of rehab games yet so there's probably a nunber of weeks yet for the situation to change by the time he's ready to return.

That's fair, Nigel, but also consider that the Jays are unlikely to lean on Kirk as heavily as they did on Valenzuela, especially if Valenzuela is the backup. Kirk started 68.5% of the games at C last year.

Since being removed from the Closer role (4/19), Hoffman's 2.14 xFIP is 5th among relievers in baseball. He's ahead of Varland and Mason Miller.

No issue with any of that. I really like what I've seen from Valenzuela but one has to be a bit skeptical of what the future holds given his minor league hitting history. Getting Kirk back is obviously important (to jettison the Heineman ABs and to keep two fresh Cs). But I keep hearing from the Jays and some portions of the internet "when we get healthy we are going to have a better offence" - to which I say, I'm not so sure because injuries really haven't been the big issue on the offensive side of things.

hilariously tho, his xfip was even better when he was the closer - 1.66!

I believe he was removed from the closer role on 4/24 (last outing as closer the blowup on 4.21).

nigel, the one negative that kept being mentioned about Valenzuela in the minors was his slow/fringy bat speed.

I've mentioned this before, but his bat speed now is 60th percentile. That doesn't guarantee he'll keep doing as well as he has, but it does give reason not to put too much emphasis on his minor league stats.

Eh Nigel imo we don't need to dismiss the impact of the injuries.


Our catchers were top-5 in baseball last year at a 115wrc+ and have dropped all the way to an 81wrc+ this year, and that's obviously because the all-star starting catcher has missed the whole season so far to injury.

The OF was clearly hit hard by the Lukes and Barger injuries, and have only rebounded lately since Lukes return and Pinango joining the team red hot.

And the biggest offensive issue on the team - Springer - has likely been significantly affected by his injury too.



you're right that with certain things happening lately - Lukes return, Valenzuela becoming the fulltime starter and still hitting, Pinango coming in red hot - that further returns from injury might not matter as much.......but that's because thanks to all those recent things happening, the Jays are starting to hit a bit finally:

APR: 92wrc+ (#25)
MAY: 95wrc+ (#16)
JUN: 112wrc+ (#11)

The returns of Kirk and Barger not only should mean fewer at bats for the likes of Heineman Straw Sosa, but help us guard against the likely slowdowns we'll see from Pinango and Valenzuela.

and of course they give the manager the option to really start taking away at bats from Springer if he can't get going, since that's legit the biggest hole on the team so far.

hypobole - I saw your earlier post and I agree that that gives a basis for believing that this is real improvement over his historical production. There's also the fact that his 2026 line isn't boosted by BABIP luck and that his strike zone control numbers are both excellent and completely in line with his historical minor league numbers. It's more of a sample size issue for me. There a lot of minor league data suggesting one thing and (relatively) little data supporting the new thing:)

Valenzuela has a 123 wRC+ so it isn't obvious that Kirk's injury is responsible for the team's drop at C. It's because Heineman's bat has become completely useless.

And Heineman was getting 3 out of 4 starts during the first month or so of the season.

Hypobole Casino % odds:
Heineman DFA'd: 80%

If DFA'd
Heineman passes through waivers: 5%
Heineman claimed: 25%
Heineman traded for cash: 35%
Heineman traded for a warm body: 35%

Seabold DFA'd, Mad Max reinstated.

Heineman is the best defensive C in MLB this year according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (assuming you can divide it by his innings caught), so there should definitely be some value there.

I actually think the supporting cast is mostly good enough now and if Vlad and Springer rebound some, the Jays will be good enough. Only change needed would be to swap one of those lefty OFers for a RH bat that can mash lefites. Facing a lefty with an OF Pinango, Straw, and Lukes is really weak.

One more good (great?) outing by Miles or Corbin (both at 0.6 WAR) would push Vlad off BBRef's "Top 12" - he's currently hanging on to 12th place with 0.7 WAR.

Is this legit the worst stretch Vlad has had as a professional? Let's hope Popkins can get him back on track.

Grichuk would be a good fit but the ChiSox are 35-31. Laureano is producing for a good Padres team, and Reynolds is signed through '31. Pham is washed up. Ward on the Orioles is probably ideal.

the problem, as I've (and others) have noted with adding a RH platoon bat is who comes off the roster to make room. In theory you could trade one of Sanchez or Pinango to fill some other need and gain some flexibility but both are more valuable than any logically available RH bench bat.

That said, Lane Thomas is hitting .259/.397/.362/.759 vs LHP

Of course, if they were more willing to have Springer in the field, he's .234/.321/.404/.725 vs LH and you could put him in left for a marginal gain to let you give someone else a day at DH without a trade.

I think Laureano is out for the season.

I hate when I can't get the game to stream. At least I can watch Guelph vs TO Maple Leafs at Christie Pitts live stream. For a media company Rogers has terrible streaming. 

I have to listen on a re-streamer. That is more stable & doesn't eat up ram. 

I think Laureano is out for the season.
He had surgery, he is done. 
reclamation/upside is Weimer from WAS for a left "masher" 

How many chances does Scherzer get to work it out? Have only watched 1 game this year, so no opinion on how he looks. But the stats say crispy. 

doesn't look any better than his stats unfortunately.

we'd be better off giving SWR his starts tbh.

i support the Gimenez ph

Yeah, I'm thinking in a few days when Bieber is ready it is Scherzer who will be the bubble guy - Jays asking him if he is having arm issues with a strong hint to him to agree to it unless he wants to be released. Safe to say the Jays want him around as a semi-coach at the very least. But damn, he looks toasty out there and has almost from the day he signed here last year. Between last year and this year, 5 games allowing 1 run (4 last year including game 7 in just 4 1/3 IP, 1 this year), none allowing 0 runs, 4 times allowing 6+ runs, 3 this year in just 6 starts. Ugh. That is 100% unacceptable.

So I suspect we'll be seeing a starting 5 of Gausman-Cease-Yesavage-Bieber-Corbin with SWR and Miles as the long men, hopefully only needed for Yesavage (inning limits) and Corbin (realistically he ain't going 6+ anymore). I suspect that could work well, Nance works as a 3rd long man potentially too. Especially since Garcia's rehab went badly (low 90's heater, that sounds bad for him).

Well, that was new. Vlad in shock as Rogers glove flips the ball to him while falling. That was fun. Gotta love baseball, you always can see something unexpected.

For those who missed it - here it is on BlueSky.

IIRC, I asked a couple of weeks ago if Scherzer was going to be any better than Lauer when we DFAed him. If we'd have pulled him before the Bohm AB, we might have won. Given the heat, his age, having to run to 1st, they should have given him more of a breather or taken him out at that point. 

Now that Max has his 3500K (and Springer 1000 runs!) - can we pull back on both of their playing time, please? I was thinking Varsho should have hit for Springer in the 9th. 

When I saw Vlad smiling after the Springer hit, I almost KNEW the DP was coming.. 

The Phillies were a grand-slam away from a home-run cycle (solo, 2 run HR, 3 run HR). Ugh.

Straw did well running out the infield "hit" in that one, but I think it was at least as much on him as Lukes for the CS on the WP as I think he should have gone to 3rd.

Vlad continues to be super productive in the OBP without power.

And yeah that Rogers glove flip was a real fun web gem play. And Vlad's facial expression was great.

Jays team is T22nd in HR at 65 and 27th in BB at 194. In contrast their pitching staff is T15th with 72 HR allowed and 11th with 222 BB allowed. That's not a great Beane Count and hard to win when you are being out HR and out BB.

Their identity has been the team that puts the ball in play.
Clement has been one of their best player and he hardly walks at all.
Okamoto and Sanchez have brought more strike outs.

They're short HRs from Vlad and Springer and Springer has been just bad.

I think Scherzer could do better if he was willing to allow contact instead of hunting strikeouts.
He's been trying hard to put the slider on the corner or at the knee when he could get to 2 strikes easily with the fastball.
I can see Gausman-Cease-Yesavage-Bieber-Bloss before August.

I think that some people are underestimating how bad backup catchers in the majors are. I think it's quite likely Heineman gets claimed, especially given his defence.

Anaheim doesn't seem to have a second catcher on their 26-man roster right now other than O'Hoppe. Colorado's backup is 32 and has a career 48 OPS+. Cincinnati's backup hasn't played in the majors since 2022 and has a .545 OPS. Arizona's backup is 33 with a career 54 OPS+. (Just using basic stats to illustrate a point quickly.)

I'm sure there are other teams I could find where Heineman would look like an upgrade. Even in cases of injury, if I was any of those four GMs, I'd claim Heineman.

That's the situation the Jays may find themselves in given Valenzuela's play (even if he's hitting a bit above his true talent level), but I think the team should be resigned to losing Heineman if they DFA him.

If anyone has to be bad at least with Springer it is a guy on his last year here - 36 years old, so should be easy to cut back on playing time with in theory.

For 2027 we have by age (age in 2027)...

• C: Kirk (28), Valenzuela (26)
• 1B: Vlad (28), 2B: Clement (31), SS: Gimenez (28), 3B: Okamoto (31)
• OF: Pinango (25), Straw (32), Sanchez (29), Lukes (32), Barger (27)
• UT: McAdoo (25), Schneider (28), Kasevich (26)
• SP: Cease (31), Yesavage (23), Berrios (33), plus options in: Miles (26), SWR (26), Macko (26), Dallas (27), Stanifer (23), and probably others that aren't coming to mind in AA/AAA.
• RP: Varland (29), Rogers (36), Fisher (26), Hoffman (34), Fluharty (25), plus a cast of 1000's.

Gausman might be resigned, they might chase a big gun (Skubal the biggest obviously). We'll see when that time comes. But the lineup IF/C are young and talented, the OF is aging but has 2 kids in Pinango and Barger which helps. The pen is mostly young or prime (Rogers & Hoffman obvious exceptions) - I suspect Macko will be in the pen in '27. Kind of surprised how young SWR is given the Jays got him for just cash.

Katie I posted some odds on Heineman yesterday that mirrored your thoughts. No one here went out on a limb to guess his fate when Kirk returns.

Plausible Best Lineups, using....


This Year's Stats Only

1. 1B Guerrero 283pa, .375obp, 110wrc+, 2.1war650
2. RF Lukes 117pa, .362obp, 116wrc+, 3.3war650
3. DH Sanchez 204pa, .328obp, 121wrc+, 1.3war650
4. C Valenzuela 145pa, .333obp, 121wrc+, 6.7war650
5. LF Pinango 119pa, .336obp, 120wrc+, 1.6war650
6. 2B Clement 274pa, .325obp, 118wrc+, 3.3war650
7. CF Varsho 236pa, .331obp, 106wrc+, 2.8war650
8. 3B Okamoto 275pa, .309obp, 105wrc+, 2.6war650
9. SS Gimenez 235pa, .265obp, 71wrc+, 2.2war650

B. UT Springer 206pa, .291obp, 80wrc+, -1.0war650
B. OF Straw 119pa, .325obp, 93wrc+, 1.1war650
B. IF Schneider 89pa, .295obp, 57wrc+, -2.9war650
B. C Alejandro 22pa, .227obp, 59wrc+, 3.0war650

B. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 82wrc+, -1.9war650
B. OF Barger 28pa, .214obp, 1wrc+, 0.0war650
B. IF Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 31wrc+, -4.4war650
B. C Heineman 87pa, .205obp, 15wrc+, 0.0war650



Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. DH Springer 551pa, .372obp, 146wrc+, 4.1war650
2. 1B Guerrero 671pa, .379obp, 130wrc+, 3.4war650
3. CF Varsho 407pa, .322obp, 118wrc+, 4.2war650
4. C Alejandro 320pa, .331obp, 110wrc+, 5.7war650
5. SS Clement 647pa, .319obp, 108wrc+, 3.6war650
6. 3B Okamoto 275pa, .309obp, 105wrc+, 2.6war650
7. RF Lukes 412pa, .321obp, 104wrc+, 2.7war650
8. 2B Schneider 281pa, .336obp, 106wrc+, 1.9war650
9. LF Sanchez 514pa, .300obp, 99wrc+, 0.9war650

B. UT Barger 371pa, .286obp, 93wrc+, 2.1war650
B. OF Straw 301pa, .318obp, 93wrc+, 3.0war650
B. IF Gimenez 441pa, .275obp, 71wrc+, 2.1war650
B. C Valenzuela 145pa, .333obp, 121wrc+, 6.7war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 82wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Pinango 119pa, .336obp, 120wrc+, 1.6war650
X. IF Sosa 454pa, .272obp, 88wrc+, 0.6war650
X. C Heineman 202pa, .269obp, 52wrc+, 2.6war650

X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. OF Clase 43pa, .279obp, 58wrc+, -3.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 16pa, .188obp, 49wrc+, -4.1war650
X. C MacIver 88pa, .256obp, 65wrc+, 0.0war650




Fangraphs Combined Depth Charts Projections

1. DH Springer 350pa, .333obp, 112wrc+, 1.9war650
2. RF Lukes 197pa, .340obp, 108wrc+, 2.6war650
3. 1B Guerrero 390pa, .381obp, 140wrc+, 4.2war650
4. C Alejandro 218pa, .348obp, 115wrc+, 6.3war650
5. LF Sanchez 245pa, .317obp, 108wrc+, 2.1war650
6. 3B Okamoto 342pa, .321obp, 111wrc+, 3.0war650
7. CF Varsho 330pa, .301obp, 101wrc+, 2.8war650
8. 2B Clement 350pa, .312obp, 101wrc+, 3.0war650
9. SS Gimenez 350pa, .305obp, 90wrc+, 2.8war650

B. UT Barger 181pa, .313obp, 105wrc+, 2.2war650
B. OF Straw 88pa, .301obp, 76wrc+, 0.7war650
B. IF Schneider 84pa, .330obp, 102wrc+, 2.3war650
B. C Valenzuela 114pa, .287obp, 81wrc+, 2.3war650

X. UT McAdoo 92pa, .290obp, 85wrc+, 1.4war650
X. OF Pinango 76pa, .301obp, 89wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 92pa, .276obp, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C Heineman 44pa, .289obp, 69wrc+, 3.0war650

X. UT Santander 12pa, .308obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Schreck 4pa, .319obp, 92wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 8pa, .287obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Kasevich 12pa, .299obp, 74wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 4pa, .286obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war650

The Jays have really lucked out with their backup catchers the past year and a half - Heineman last year with a huge career year, Valenzuela emerging this year as Heineman's bat went limp.

You'd think that someone is going to want Heineman enough to give up some low-level flyer for him. He's probably only a ~60 wRC+ guy, but that's still a good backup with his defence.

Random thought - if the Jays DFA Heinemann and lose him, I could see a good argument for seeing what Cleveland would want for Bo Naylor given he's third on their dept chart.

Apparently considered a strong defender. Shouldn't be THAT expensive.

Also, while I'm not sure what I'd suggest here but it seems like when Garcia and Bieber are ready there might be a situation where Nance and/or Corbin could be traded if they are really invested in giving SWR some run. Seems like both have produced too much to be DFA'd

The problem is guys like Nance and Corbin often are available for nothing as no one is sure why they are doing well, the feeling is they could stop having the magic that has worked for them. Nance has always had a good xFIP (sub 4 every ML season, this is his 5th) but has never thrown over 43 2/3 IP in any season. 0 saves, 13 holds and 4 blown saves lifetime shows how teams don't trust him in pressure situations, with good reason. A team in the dumps could use him - negative fWAR in the pen for Washington-Cincinnati-KC (all -1 or worse) while SF-Houston-LAA are negative overall in their pens too. Those 6 clubs could use a guy who can eat innings and not embarrass them. Jays are 7th overall in pen fWAR (tied with #5/6 Mil/NYM, just 0.1 behind 3/4 Atlanta/Cleveland, with the Padres #1 at 4.1 and Philly #2 at 3.4).

As time goes by I'm leaning more to holding Corbin as I don't feel safe with Scherzer. However, if the Jays do (and I suspect they do) then when Bieber comes back they have to do something with Corbin. No one is negative in fWAR for their starters, although the A's are close (1.1) and are contenders somehow. We know they won't give up much for rentals but might want to look like they are doing something so they might be interested in Corbin (cheap, effective). Colorado is weak as always, Houston & Washington too. I see the A's as the best matchup though due to the combo of being low budget, few options, unwilling to give up cash or good prospects (unless they are dumb and I don't think they are). Maybe another McAdoo or Valenzuela could be in their system for the Jays to grab.

Right now I'm seeing Garcia as a 'break in case of emergency' guy - right now with his reported velocity (or lack thereof) and his poor results (5 G 4 IP 22 batters faced, 7 H 5 R/ER 1 HR 3 BB 3 SO) I can't see him being put on the roster over anyone in the pen right now. If his heater was pushing the high 90's maybe, but low 90's? Nah.

Bo Naylor would be nice as our #3, excellent D, poor O. Doubt Cleveland wants to give him up though. Don't see why they would offhand as he is useful to them like he'd be to the Jays. Backups who are great D no O are plentiful. Heineman has been here a lot over the years and is a nice to have guy, but there are others like him even in the system - Willie MacIver, William Simoneit - both 29 in AAA, kind of surprised Simoneit hasn't gotten a shot yet as he reached AAA his 2nd pro season, and has a 890 OPS in Buffalo this year - has played a fair amount at 1B too so maybe his defense isn't good. Hard to say.

Naylor's defence was excellent 2 years ago, but has regressed to below average, which prompted the trade of a pitching prospect and the 29th pick in this years draft for Patrick Bailey.

Better start by Bieber tonight. 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB. 4 K. 62 pitches, 46 strikes.

‪Mike Wilner‬ ‪@wilnerness.bsky.social‬

Alejandro Kirk - speaking without a translator - tells us he feels great and adds:

“I don’t know if I’m allowed to say this, but I think I’m going to catch tomorrow.”

Here or in Toronto?

“In Toronto.”

Exciting. Poor Heineman, back to the minors or released, hoping another ML club signs him. Can't imagine many will want a 13 OPS+ no matter how good his defense is. Hopefully he accepts it and goes to Buffalo.

Can't imagine many will want a 13 OPS+ no matter how good his defense is.

Katie mentioned the dire state of backup catching above, but the Yankees called up Ali Sanchez, who's rocking a -56 OPS+ after 3 games. The Braves have given Sandy Leon 36 ABs, and he's at -52.

Probably no one wants Heineman as Plan A, or possibly even B or C, but it's not a deep field out there. I would expect Heineman is valuable enough to get claimed by someone, if not valuable enough to bring anything back in a trade.

Rotographs' Zimmerman: "From an asset preservation standpoint, optioning Valenzuela and not exposing the out-of-options Tyler Heineman to waivers, makes clear sense. A claim on Heineman would leave the organization’s depth perilously thin, with Willie MacIver as the third-string backstop.

Heineman ranks among the major-league leaders in pitch framing, throwing and blocking and knows the pitching staff exceptionally well, making him an important part of the team. But unless the Blue Jays decide to carry three catchers — something Schneider described as “not ideal,” but didn’t entirely rule out — demoting a Valenzuela who’s earned the right to stay won’t be easy."

Yeah, I'm okay with demoting Valenzuela and playing the long game here. H is probly a 600 OPS backup catcher moving with great defense of the rest of the 26 season. That seems like an asset worth protecting.

If they want to keep Heineman that badly, carrying 3 catchers isn't that big a deal. As nice as his bat has been, Pinango can be sent down without having too much of an effect on the roster. That would buy them time, at least until Barger is healthy. Springer (or Valenzuela?) would have to play the OF vs. LHP in this scenario for it to make sense.

There is nothing showing Valenzuela slowing down, you have to keep him in the line-up right now.

I would absolutely not worry about losing Heinemen. Losing a 34 YO third string good defensive catcher who can't hit at all isn't something I'm going to lose sleep over. Hopefully, neither of the top two catchers would get hurt but even if they did, I am fine with one of the AAA guys getting a few starts. Jays need to win and Valuenzuela gives them much better chance of doing so.

"Can't imagine many will want a 13 OPS+ no matter how good his defense is."

Patrick Bailey 88 PA, 16 OPS+

That was Bailey when the Guardians traded a 45 FV (per FG) pitching prospect and the 29th pick in this years draft for him. It's Baileys 4th year in the league and his best offensive season was an 83 OPS+.

We really have little idea of how teams value catchers, although defensively Fangraphs values seem to be far more in line with the way teams act than BBref.

Then again it's almost certain valuations vary from team to team. I more curious than anything as to how the Jays handle this.

This FO has almost uniformly leaned into asset preservation over performance in situations like this. However, Valenzuela may be the rare exception given his performance. I would guess that they carry 3 C's if Varsho is ready to come back and Pinango goes. If not, then I would guess Valenzuela goes down until Varsho is ready to go.

Asset preservation would make sense with a younger player you want to keep long-term but Heinemen is 35 next week. Are you going to keep him in the majors all next year too just in case? The asset management is just holding on to a guy for a few months in case someone gets hurt so he can backup which seems so silly to me. Bailey is not a good comp because Heinemen is a good defender but Bailey has been easily the single best defensive player in baseball since he came into the league and is under contract for four more years. Heinemen has been DFAd 4 times in the last 4 years. He had a fantastic and flukey year last year but He's just not a guy you need to worry about replacing.

Heineman is 35, has been replacement value every year except last year, has been traded for cash 3 times, for Vinny Capra once and been picked off waivers twice.

It's like arguing over carrying Yesavage or Tommy Nance.

Agreed scottt - if Valenzuela goes down and Heineman is kept up it will scream 'we don't care about winning'. His great defense has kept his fWAR positive every single season he has had in the majors, but last year was his only year over 1 fWAR. At 35 he ain't getting better. Last years bat was a BABIP illusion (342 vs career 267, this year is the BABIP gods getting even with his 190).

Basically, the Jays have an easy choice - Valenzuela 121 wRC+ 6.0 defense vs Heineman 15 wRC+ 6.5 defense (FG stats). It isn't close. Both strong on defense, but Valenzuela has the bat to go with it, allowing Kirk to DH and rest more than he could with Heineman.

The rotation & pen will be more interesting for choices - if Garcia returns who goes? Fluharty/Fisher/Varland are it for guys with options in the pen, rotation options are Yesavage only. I don't see any of those 4 going down so any additions will require a permanent subtraction (or risk thereof). Nance is 35 and not trusted in pressure situations. SWR was just acquired and looked good his first game. Miles is a piece of the future, Corbin has done well, but was arguably the worst starter in the majors for years before and at best is a league average starter. Scherzer has an ERA over 10 and at his age isn't likely to get better, but he is a HOF'er who did well in the playoffs. Ugh. The Jays could have a 30 man roster and would still have tough choices. Unless more injuries happen it is going to be a tough call.

Right now Jesus Sanchez should be hitting cleanup (or third of Vlad is first/second) against every RHP. Last 27 games:

.387/.413/.627/1.039

"A claim on Heineman would leave the organization’s depth perilously thin"

Other than Cleveland, almost everyone's depth is perilously thin (except I guess for teams that have a top prospect in AAA like Milwaukee)

scottt wrote:
It's like arguing over carrying Yesavage or Tommy Nance.

In terms, of talent yes, but in terms of risk and role, no. If you get rid of Nance -- the very end of your bullpen -- as good as he's been, he hardly matters in the grand scheme of things; you have plenty off other bullpen arms. A backup catcher, on the other hand, is vital.

Tamra wrote:
almost everyone's depth is perilously thin

I am never in favour of creating a problem if you don't have to though. Because Valenzuela's performance is out of line with history, it would be good to somehow give Heinemann a few more weeks on the roster just in case. You need someone to pitch the 9th too...

Heinemen DFA. Thank goodness.

Heineman was designated for assignment.

I hope he stays in the organization, but I don't see that as likely.

Valenzuela's performance is probably more than we can expect going forward, but what he has demonstrated so far made the decision to keep Heineman hard to justify. Also, it doesn't help that the Jays are struggling now. If the team was where Tampa is in the standings, perhaps a stronger case can be made for asset management, but the front office likely feels a pressure to maximize any upgrade in on-field performance they reasonably can right now.

Agreed Katie, there are times for asset management, but not now.

placed CF Daulton Varsho on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 10, 2026
activated C Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day injured list
designated C Tyler Heineman for assignment.
recalled LF Davis Schneider
sent RHP Yariel Rodríguez outright to Buffalo