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Eugene had a 12 run inning against Vancouver. At one stage ten hitters in a row reached base. It was the only loss of the night as Buffalo, New Hampshire and Dunedin won. New Hampshire also had a tough pitchers game, conceding 10 runs but they scored enough for the win. Buffalo and Dunedin has excellent pitching for their wins.

Jay Harry has received plenty of note in these reports this season as he has ascended to AAA. But he still has not cracked BA's top 30 prospect list. Why would that be? Well the more obvious answer is that he swings at everything. His walk rate this season is 4.8% and his K rate is 22.4%. That ratio is not one that is a sign of future major league success. His O swing% is 48%, meaning he swings at 48% of pitches out of the strike zone and TJ stats has his max exit velocity at the 25th percentile.

Now on the more positive side he has improved his walk rate in AAA, from 3.9% in AA to 7%. And he has reduced his K rate from 23.5% to 19.7%. Lets see how those numbers change over the next few months. Will pitchers start throwing him more balls and will Harry continue his improvement?



Buffalo 3 St Paul 2

New Hampshire 11 Reading 10

Eugene 12 Vancouver 9

Dunedin 7 Jupiter 1


Three Stars

Third Star - Nick Goodwin

Second Star - Carlos Mendoza

First Star - Aaron Parker


Boxes


NOTES


Carlos Mendoza hit a home run in the top of the ninth to break a 2-2 tie. Charles McAdoo had a big game with three hits, one a double. Jevon Ward doubled and singled.


Five Buffalo pitchers held St Paul to five hits. Chad Dallas started and just gave up one run on three hits over five innings.


New Hampshire and Reading combined for 30 hits. Aaron Parker had a big game, two home runs, a double and four RBI. Nick Goodwin also homered, singled and drove in three runs. Hedbert Perez doubled twice.


While the hitting was great, the pitching was less so. It seemed as though Gage Stanifer was on the way up after his last two starts but he hit a speed bump on Wednesday. In the second inning two singles and two doubles, along with a failed fielders choice, scored three runs. But more to the point Stanifer threw 43 pitches in that inning and he was out of the game.


Vancouver had a 3-0 lead in the fifth inning but Eugene scored 12 in the inning. It started, as it often does, with two walks. The starter Dylan Watts then got an out. Two hits followed and Watts was pulled for Gilberto Batista. The next eight hitters reached base, six hits and two walks. Batista finally got an out but when the next hitter singled Batista was out with 35 pitches thrown to get one out.


Vancouver did come back to score six more run but fell short. The C's scored in five innings, Eugene in one, but that one was big. JR Freethy and Eric Snow each had three hits and scored seven of the nine runs.


Dunedin scored seven runs and it was a couple of the older guys who did most of the hitting. Adam Hackenberg went 3-4 with a walk while Brock Tibbets was 2-3 with a walk. Blaine Bullard, Jojo Parker and Juan Sanchez combined for nine strikeouts.


Blake Purnell and two relievers combined to hold Jupiter to one run and six hits.


A Dirty Dozen | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#479702) #
Yeah, I pointed out Harry's concerning BB% and BB/K a while back.

I don't understand his 25th percentile EV though. Major league average is 88.9. His Buffalo average is 91.3. In the majors that would be around 85th percentile. Do AAA batters hit the ball that much harder than MLB batters? Seems odd.

His max EV so far in Buffalo is 107.2, which I assume is around 25th percentile. Could that be what TJ Stats is referencing?
Gerry - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#479703) #
Sorry that should be max EV, not average. I will correct. His average EV is 66th percentile.

I forgot to add that it is not impossible for him to succeed with this approach. Think of Ernie Clement. His walk rate is 3.6% and his O swing% 44.4%. The big differe3nce is that Ernie's K rate is around 10%.

Lenyn Sosa is another comp.

Harry is only 23 years old and this is the first year where he has been hitting well enough to be thought of as a threat by the opposition. He will be pitched differently when he is batting third, like he did yesterday. We should look for more growth as the season continues.
metafour - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#479704) #
Harry's Max EV is 37th percentile according to Prospect Savant (not 25th).
Gerry - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#479705) #
My number is from TJ Stats. Who do you believe?
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#479706) #
Does either site have EV90? Don't know if it's supposed to work like this, but I always consider Max EV mostly as raw and EV90 mostly as game.
Gerry - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#479707) #
TJ Stats says 90th% EV for Harry is 56.
metafour - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#479708) #
I don't know, but 25th percentile seems low for a Max EV of 106.8 MPH. That would imply that 75% of all AAA hitters have hit a ball harder than 106.8 MPH.
Glevin - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#479709) #
Harry is interesting but very hard to succeed with those K/BB numbers largely because pitchers in the majors just won't throw you many strikes if they know you will swing at everything. It's not impossible to succeed though and Harry has a 6.6 BB% and 18.4 K% in AAA which is a big improvement. That 24 deadline was insane because Jays didn't really trade any real talent and got Pinango, McAdoo, Harry, Bloss, Wagner (now turned into Valuenzuela), Schreck, and others. Definition of doing the most with what you have.
Gerry - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#479711) #
Ben Nicholson Smith is reporting that Ricky Tiedemann is getting some injections in his neck which prevented him from pitching last week.
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#479712) #
106.8 is low. Of the 152 qualified in MLB, only 8 players are lower. BUT his number is best of 51 balls in play, since it doesn't include his AA numbers. He's being compared to a lot of players with 3, 4, 5 times as many opportunities.
TamRa - Thursday, July 02 2026 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#479714) #
Riley Tirrota turned up in yesterdays games against the Fisher Cats. He went 4/5 for the Fightin' Phils
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#479727) #
I think we have something in Jake Casey.
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