The way this season is going, they could go 9-0 and miss the playoffs, or do something like 5-4 and blunder in anyway.

Jose Rodriguez does not exactly announce a "Must Win" philosophy.

This road trip has the potential for disaster. I can imagine a scenario in which they go 4-2 and come home well situated to close it out...but I also wouldn't be shocked at all if they only win 1 or 2 and are effectively in too big a hole to get out of

Not as a judgement on the Jays so much as the persistence of the Rangers and O's. Both are 6-3 in the last nine while the Jays have let 2 or 3 winnable games slip away.

The Jays should be able to beat anyone when Cease and Soriano are starting.
That's the entire premise of the playoffs.

If they can pull that off in Texas, they still have a reasonable shot.
If not, it's hell and a prayer.

We got this.

Go 1-0 every day = make playoffs

Michael Lorenzen DFA.

Jose Rodriguez added.

that's what I expected, I'd have been disappointed if Lorenzen stuck and Cellucci went out

It's unfortunate because the Corbin and Taillon flyers were actually turning out well, but Arrighetti and Lorenzen have been absolutely deplorable.

Lorenzen finishes the year with a higher ERA in Toronto than he had in Colorado, which seems like a perverse sort of accomplishment.

If I had to choose a relief arm who might help us in a one-inning role right now, it would be Stanifer not Rodriguez. Stanifer has struck out nearly half of all batters over the past month.

I imagine Rodriguez is sent back down when Yesavage is back in a couple days.

A’s up 3-0 on Cleveland in the first inning

Cease’s stuff looks spent tonight after a long season.

Evan Carter is a cautionary tale vis a vis Batema’s future.

We all see the blame pointed at Vladdy but fanboy favourite Ernie Clement is unplayable and has been for a very long time.

I acknowledge that I’m biased towards Ernie and I acknowledge that his bat has disappeared badly the last 6 weeks but tonight it’s on Cease not Ernie. Cease has nothing.

Sad to see Cease like this because he's dragged this team close to the playoffs this entire season.

"I acknowledge that I’m biased towards Ernie and I acknowledge that his bat has disappeared badly the last 6 weeks but tonight it’s on Cease not Ernie."

Ernie has been atrocious since July 1st. 54 WRC+ in 260 PAs with negative defensive value.

Feels like the season might be close to ending tonight. Cleveland won.The White Sox are winning.The Blue Jays are losing to Texas (on a night when Cease started).It was a good run in Aug/early Sept but few teams would have been able to withstand the loss of so many SPs (Ponce, Berrios, Yesavage, Bieber, Corbin, Taillon, plus Gausman traded) and their starting RF (Barger), even with the abysmal performances by Vladdy and Clement.

I assume the team will add a starting middle infielder next season and make Clement a utility player again. I'm guessing he's been battling some injuries this season. I think he's a better player than this.

If Cease is out of gas then it probably wouldn't have mattered if the Blue Jays made the postseason. They wouldn't have gone far without an effective Cease. Also, they might want to dial back his workload a bit next season, so that he's in better shape come Sept/Oct.

The 2025 victory lap is over. The 2026 season was about as boring and miserable as you could get for a team that wasn't tanking for half the season. The 2027 roster construction has to change, and there's no post season hangover to cloud judgement. They need to upgrade in a few very noticeable places (2B and LF primarily). They either need to get younger or add impact (ideally, both). Unfortunately it's going to be a long, possible very long off-season due to the lockout, so we may not know what the next iteration of this team will look like for a while.

I think tonight is the lid shutting on the season. About to be 3 back of Cleveland, already 3 back of the White Sox (due to tiebreaker) and about to be 2 back of Texas (due to tierbreaker). With Cease throwing low 90's and walking everyone, it's probably smarter to shut him down than it is to ride him any more than they have.

Second try

Last nights game was very dispiriting. The teams best pitcher had a bad game, they made three errors in the field, and the hitting was not good. They had five hits and the number nine hitter had two of them.

If it wasn't for Houston, Chicago and Baltimore losing, the towels would be thrown in. But the futility of the other teams keep the Jays in touch.

The $500M man is probably busy working on his golf swing.

Right, because he's clearly a bum who puts no effort and has no interest in succeeding. Do you see any change in effort compared to last year? Precisely...

After the game & what felt like a postmortem, Sportsnet had a segment with a quote from Vlad alluding that he was having some mental health struggles. And that he recently asked John Schneider for "help" because he felt he needed to discuss his poor season struggles with someone other than his family.

It resulted in a one-on-one chat with the manager in his office for 45 minutes.

And of course baseball is one sport where the harder you press the worse things get.

White Sox beat Detroit this afternoon.

I can't really fault the front office or the team if they miss the postseason.

The front office made a heroic effort to compete, adding Soriano, Bateman, Smith, Corbin and Taillon (among others) during the season. But the accumulation of injuries was just too much to overcome in the end.

Vladdy and Clement were huge disappointments as well, but I think the team would have made the postseason (and Vladdy and Clement probably would have played better) if, say, two of Ponce/Bieber/Yesavage, plus Barger, had stayed healthy this year.

"I can't really fault the front office or the team if they miss the postseason."

I don't think they are completely blameless (the Sanchez trade and not moving any other outfielder and just getting a RH OFer instead cost them all year) but the fault this season is mostly bad luck (horrible injuries, especially to pitching) and huge and unexpected drop-offs. Yes, Clement and Varsho declined significantly on both sides of ball but nothing comes close to Vladdy.

Vlad and Schneiders talk is likely much more important than batting order considerations for evaluating a manager. And good of Vlad to talk to someone, although you'd think the team would have doctors and sports psychologists already involved with the team even if things appear normal, let alone when players are struggling.

On the offensive side of things there’s plenty of blame to go round. For all his struggles, Clement is still outhitting Gimenez. Springer is way down from last year. It’s pretty much across the board.

"On the offensive side of things there’s plenty of blame to go round. For all his struggles, Clement is still outhitting Gimenez. Springer is way down from last year."

Gimenez has a 2.7 FWAR and was a fair bit better than he was last year and Clement has a 1.0 FWAR and is way worse than he was last year. Not really similar cases. I am not hard on Springer because I was expecting regression at 36 and like Kirk, his injury cost him a lot of time and took him a long time to recover from. He got hurt April 11th, returned April 29th and was terrible in May when he clearly was still struggling with the injury. Since June 1st, Springer has a 122 WRC+. The thing about Vladdy is that LAST season with his 135 WRC+ was a bit disappointing. Nobody has ever been as good as Vladdy has been up to now and had a worse year at 27 YO. It was an historically unexpectedly bad season.

Yesavage will start Monday. That means tomorrow will be a bullpen day.

On offence: Clement 85 wRC+; Gimenez 79 wRC+

Blue Jays going out with a whimper, not a bang. No hits, making errors. Four wins and seven losses in their last eleven games.

People will blame injuries and Vladdy. Both have played a role obviously. But the team as a whole has played a ton of bad baseball (with exceptions). They’ve generally earned their fate. Not a popular comment but it’s true. I remain optimistic for next year.

When the pressure has been on this team folded. Its like their troubles hitting with runners in scoring position this year.

And everytime they got to .500, they fell back.

If Vladdy had had a normal-ish year (say a modest — for him — 825 OPS) and a couple of the many injured players had stayed healthy, the team would be in a postseason spot right now. Has the team played poor baseball at times? Yes — probably in no small part because they’ve been short on healthy/talented players, everyone who has managed to stay somewhat healthy has been overworked, and many players have been pressing because the team has been so stretched.

But yes, some of the play has just sucked, like Heineman’s bad throws/defense early in the season, Sanchez’s outfield play when Scherzer was on the mound, Clement’s missed balls at 2B, or Vladdy getting picked off first base in the first inning of a big game with two on and one out — all of which may have cost the team precious wins. But then doesn’t every team have some of those plays during the regular season?

All they have left are points of pride - stay out of last place, and reach .500

Anything else requires a wildly unlikely set of outcomes.

Unless the Jays and Mariners both go 7-0 to finish the season, this will be the 1st time since 2014 the 2 teams in the ALCS the year prior combine for a losing record.

Unless the Jays win at least 5 of their last 7, this will be the 1st time since 1987 both teams in the ALCS the year prior finish with losing records.

It's going to be a long off-season.

I am manifesting 1987 in reverse. This time we win out and make it on the last day.

It's going to be a long off-season

At least guys like Vlad & Ernie won't have the excuse that they they are worn down from playing an extra 6 weeks of baseball last winter.

Cease went for mri on his shoulder. Not great.

Cease going for an MRI effectively ends the run. They can't possibly think, even if it's the best news possible, that running him out there for another start with the odds where they are is wise.

I will go back to what I was saying the week leading up to the trade deadline back in late July, though. It was worth continuing to try and make the playoffs. It would have been a pretty depressing August and September had they sold off more talent and mailed in the last 40 games. We actually got an extended stretch of good baseball, and made a good run at it the last two months. The Bieber injury was the death knell, in my opinion. You could argue another good starter in the rotation would have papered over the offensive struggles just enough.

That's not to say that I don't agree it wasn't a bad season overall, and with a lockout looming, who knows where the next few months will take us. As it did with 2025's dramatic worst to first, though, it all starts with internal improvement. A ton of the Blue Jays offensive terribleness can be corrected if Vlad and Santander both answer the bell next year and have bouncebacks.

Turn Ernie back into a platoon, or a solid bench guy. Find another good lefty out of the pen capable of high leverage (may already have that in Tiedemann). Maybe hand the keys to Keys and give him 500 at bats and see if he's the next Ben Rice.

Nice triple negative there, Petey :-)

I kind of expected that Bieber wouldn't really be that useful given that he had barely been here, pitched "ok" and then accepted the QO. If there's one thing I've learned over my 45+ years of watching sports: almost every athlete in pro sports takes the biggest bag they can get, every single time, platitudes be damned, ESPECIALLY in Toronto. In this case, I think Bieber knew it, just took the sure thing. Other teams make a "home team" discount work way more often, it feels. The fact that he took the sure thing over the longer option pretty much cemented the idea in my mind that he really wasn't 100%, or even that close to it. I've found cynicism works more reliably than youthful hope in sports - it just took me until my 50s to figure it out.

Now, there ARE rare exceptions, like John Tavares taking a really team friendly contract for the Leafs, but in terms of the Jays? There aren't enough Canadian players to make it a thing - look at Bautista and Encarnacion rejecting fair contracts at the end to try to get even more elsewhere - and neither one was worth even what they ended up with. I think there were others that wanted huge contracts, then left and got less on the open market. Even Vlad didn't give us a "discount" - he took the Jays to the cleaners. $100M less (is there a meaningful difference at those net worth levels?) and he gets a lot of sympathy in my books. Pushing for a max-possible-value contract and then cratering year 1? I have a lot less sympathy / patience for a guy like that. But that's just old, grumpy me, I guess.

Bieber didn't accept the QO. He can be given one this winter.

Sorry, player option then or not triggering an opt-out. Essentially the same thing.

If I were a pro athlete I'd go for the most guaranteed money every time - this is fun for fans but it's what they do for a living - taking a discount doesn't give money back to fans or make tickets less expensive - I'd rather the money go to the wealthy player than the super wealthy owner. I don't know of too many people who say no to more income from their job. The fan can stop supporting the product if unhappy.

Mostly agree, except once you get into the lifestyle choice of where to have a home team be as well as how well you get along with the organization and fellow teammates might be worth considering. I'd rather make $25M/year in a city I like with teammates/org I like rather than $30M/year in a city I hate with teammates and orgs that are hard to get along with.

If you are a player who has "only" made a couple of million a year of course go with the money, but when you are talking about the people that are set for life and then some, quality of life might mean more than just pure $ value.

I don't even have a vague hypothesis of anyone who might given them more than 2 IP on Wednesday.

Maybe bring back Dallas?

1 down, 6 to go.

White Sox win. Jays three games back.

Jays elimination number versus the White Sox is 3.

Vlad had a hit and an nice defensive play before leaving the game with lower back tightness - the broadcast said he's been struggling with that for a while.

Bateman almost robbing the HR was so close to a great play - I'm glad he didn't injure himself on the play. Nice to see lots of fast guys around the bases and scoring on this win.

There's a difference between "no, I don't want the raise, sir" or "I'll take a potential discount to stay in a situation I like".

I stayed in a below-market-average paying job while the kids were young because I had a lot of flexibility / got to work from home 4 days a week. So $$ isn't everything. 

For Vladdy it was about surpassing his dad. For Joey Bats it was about trying to get paid for the Blue Jays years in which he exceeded his contract. For Encarnation, I can't really tell. Maybe the grass looked greener elsewhere. Maybe his agent was pushing him.
There's Donaldson also, who was just to old to sign at his asking price with Vladdy crushing the ball in the minors.

Spencer Miles, Brett Bateman and Sean Keys all played roles in yesterday's win.  More of this please.

"Thanks for Nothing"

Bateman is 1 of 379 players with at least 170 PA's. He is 1 of 5 with zero in one batting category and 1 of 8
with zero in another. Any guesses?

In recent weeks, the Blue Jays went from about 6% postseason odds, to about 50% odds (maybe higher), to…3.5% current odds. Ouch.

begs the question - what are those odds actually saying?

The silver lining of Vlad's injury is Keys and to a lesser extent McAdoo should get some playing time.

"begs the question - what are those odds actually saying?"

The odds aren't saying, they're singing :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OQcglFoL_Y

The odd thing about the Bateman, Keys, McAdoo starts is that in early August when they were up the team started winning and it was all about the energy and excitement of the new guys. Now in the last couple of weeks Keys and McAdoo have been stuck to the bench and the team has been losing.

It could be coincidence but worth looking at.

It is not surprising to me. The kids are not depressed the team sucks, they are excited to be playing. Springer always has that energy, often Vlad does too although this year it seems to be down but that might just be due to his slumping so badly all year. Guys with 20+ PA in September...

• 130+ wRC+: Okamoto, Bateman, Smith
• 120+ wRC+: Vlad (128), Straw, Kirk
• 100's: Lukes
• 80's: Gimenez
• sub 70: Springer, Valenzuela, Clement (17!)

Note: McAdoo 123 (16 PA), Keys 218 (15 PA), Sanchez -5 (11 PA), Schneider 239 (4 PA), Martin 44 (3 PA)

They need to sit Clement, and get McAdoo and Keys in there more. Be good to see more of what they have if the Jays aren't winning anyways. Tragic number of 3 with 6 games to go.

Just 4 teams not in playoff position who aren't eliminated - Jays (3), Astros (4), O's (2), and Arizona (3).

If only the decision maker was a bit less stubborn and a bit more open to results- oriented plans then perhaps this team would be in the inside looking out right now.

To answer my "Thanks For Nothing" quiz, of the 379 players with 170+ PA's, Bateman is i of 8 who have not grounded into a DP and 1 of 5 who have not hit an infield fly.

On the subject of GDP's, Winkler Manitoba's Tristan Peters has 472 PA's/419 AB's and has yet to ground into one. He has 3.9 WAR both sites. Not bad for a guy acquired for cash from the Rays in the off season.

If the Jays miss the playoffs, should organise a walk of atonement for Schneider around the RC like Cersei in GOT.

I had guessed gidp for the quiz on Bateman, wouldn't have guessed infield fly. Gidp is partly on the player, but partly on how often people are on base with less than 2 outs too.

For Vladdy it was about surpassing his dad. For Joey Bats it was about trying to get paid for the Blue Jays years in which he exceeded his contract. For Encarnation, I can't really tell. Maybe the grass looked greener elsewhere. Maybe his agent was pushing him. There's Donaldson also, who was just to old to sign at his asking price with Vladdy crushing the ball in the minors.

Vlad Sr. made ~$125M - ANY reasonable contract would have doubled his father's lifetime earnings easily - and he already had earned ~$70M before this contract..

Bautista claimed some insane "I will never get old" stuff. And he seemed happy enough at the time to sign the deal he did - again, he's set for life..

Who is Encarnation? Do you mean Edwin Encarnacion? He begged and pleaded with Cleveland to basically get the same / slightly worse than what the Jays offered up front. Did he misread the market? Maybe - but then, it seems he wanted even more than the best deal that would ever be available..

Donaldson had some great years, but was slowing down and didn't want to admit it (maybe to himself?) - he had 1 very good and 2 decent years left, but IIRC, he wanted to get paid like he had 5 great years left.

How fate loves a jest: the thinking was, we had a chance at winning the 2 NON-deGrom games.. Which one do we win?