Elsewhere comes the slightly surprising news that JP expects to bring back both Greg Myers and Frank Catalanotto. I can see the reasoning behind Crash -- the team will need a left-handed mentor and platoon mate for Kevin Cash, and he evidently was a good presence -- but you should probably expect a 2004 batting line more in line with his post-All-Star '03: .252/.286/.412. For his part, Cat should still be a productive hitter -- his OBP and BB/K actually improved in the second half, while his power went way down. The question is, how many ABs will he get? Vernon is a lock in center, but the Jays will give Reed Johnson, Bobby Kielty and Gabe Gross a lot of playing time in '04. Frank may end up starting just 4-5 days a week and only against righties, whom he battered at a .318/.368/.501 rate this season. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Also, JP says Eric Hinske played very hurt.
Elsewhere comes the slightly surprising news that JP expects to bring back both Greg Myers and Frank Catalanotto. I can see the reasoning behind Crash -- the team will need a left-handed mentor and platoon mate for Kevin Cash, and he evidently was a good presence -- but you should probably expect a 2004 batting line more in line with his post-All-Star '03: .252/.286/.412. For his part, Cat should still be a productive hitter -- his OBP and BB/K actually improved in the second half, while his power went way down. The question is, how many ABs will he get? Vernon is a lock in center, but the Jays will give Reed Johnson, Bobby Kielty and Gabe Gross a lot of playing time in '04. Frank may end up starting just 4-5 days a week and only against righties, whom he battered at a .318/.368/.501 rate this season. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Also, JP says Eric Hinske played very hurt.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, 8 PM ET (game 2)
The Yankees should be feeling very motivated to put on a solid show after their fielding gaffes in game 1. The Twins do not have very good numbers against lefthanders and Brad Radke will have to be careful not to groove his pitches. The home team is as a heavy a favourite as there's been so far in the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 4 PM ET (game 2)
I couldn't keep my eyes open past 1 AM ET, so I missed the latter innings of this game. Some of what I wrote yesterday came true: the game was decided by the bullpens, the Sox did manage to elevate the ball, and the A's were very patient.
One thing that I did not foresee was the lack of confidence the Sox had in their bullpen, which precipitated leaving Pedro on the mound to face two tough lefthanders even as his pitch count climbed towards 130. Time will tell if his effort has an impact on his next start (assuming the series goes that long).
Today, the Athletics have the edge. Lefthander Barry Zito will attempt to neutralize some of Boston's potent lefthanded bats. Tim Wakefield is an enigma - I don't expect a lot of success for him against a team as disciplined as the A's.
In today's edition, Sinins includes an item about Mike Hampton; a chart accompanies the item listing the top (bottom?) 10 active pitchers in most strikeouts below the league average.
Here are the names you'll find on that list:
These park factors are for runs scored. They are derived by looking at the ratio of runs scored per inning at home versus road for batters and pitchers (separately), after which the two results are averaged. The home park factors are then used to determine the road park factors for each team on an inning-by-inning basis. The final factors are arrived at by adjusting so that the league average is exactly 1. They have not been regressed towards the mean.
For those waiting expectantly for the end-of-year minor-league reviews, my apologies for the delay -- circumstances beyond my control have hamstrung the project. But I'm confident that we'll have the first of six separate reviews ready to go by this time next week, starting with Pulaski and working our way up to Syracuse. If you'e curious about any prospects in particular, let me know and I'll add them to the review.
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 10 PM ET (game 1)
This series is perhaps the hardest to predict because the teams seem so evenly matched. I'm predicting a 5-game series, with a re-match of tonight's pitching matchup.
Because Oakland plays in a pitcher's park, its offence is better than it looks on paper. This is the right sort of offence to attack Pedro with: a high-pitch count generator. As always with Hudson, his success depends on inducing routine ground balls.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 7 PM ET (game 2)
A must-must-win game for the Braves. Facing Prior in Wrigley in Game 3 down 2-0 would just about spell curtains for the top regular season dog in the National League. If the Braves lose this series, it won't be a big upset in my book. But it will add just a little bit of spice to the "Bobby Cox can't manage in a short series" broth that's been simmering for almost 20 years.
Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 4 PM ET (Game 2)
It looks like the righthander Ponson will start game 2. The Marlins have very few potent lefthanded bats (even on the bench) and so Ponson is a solid choice. Rueter wouldn't be a bad choice, either: he'd be a good bet to shut off the running game, and it's hard for the Marlins to generate runs in other ways.
It didn't have a large impact on the game, but the automatic walk to Bonds with the bases empty and two outs in the 8th was a bit much. By all means pitch him carefully - at least you'd have a shot at getting the out.
This entry will be updated as necessary throughout the day.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, 1 PM ET
Today is Minnesota's best shot. They have their ace going, a fireballing lefthander is Yankee Stadium. If Minnesota is to win this series, today figures to be a must win for them (although I thought the same thing in the 2002 ALDS between Anaheim and New York). The key to this game will be Santana's ability to throw strikes to a patient Yankees lineup. If he can walk fewer than 4 batters and go 7 innings, he should be able to limit the damage.
It seems like half the time Mike Mussina is unhittable; the rest of the time you can get 4 or 5 runs off him. Minnesota's lineup isn't very potent, so scoring 3 runs in today's game will more than meet my expectations.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 8 PM ET
The best offensive team in the National League will face one of the best starting rotations around. The Braves would like to win tonight's game and put the pressure on Zambrano in game 2. The Cubs' best chance to win the series is to take the 3 games Wood and Prior are scheduled to start.
So who takes the reins in Seattle? If I were Billy Beane, I'd be checking the fax machine outside Paul DePodesta's office right now.
Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 4 PM ET
This figures to be another great pitchers' duel. Base-stealers have had good success against Jason Schmidt, so look for the Marlins to bunt and steal frequently. Florida manager Jack McKeon has stated he will pitch around Barry Bonds at every opportunity.
Josh Beckett has been lights out the last month, but might become dramatically less effective after 100 pitches. The key for the Giants will be to get the first three hitters on base, so walking Bonds will put great pressure on the defence.