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Talent abounds in the Jay minor league system, from mostly raw talents drafted in 1999-2001 by the Ash/Wilken team to more finished products chosen in 2002-2004 by Ricciardi and his team. This is the first year of Rule 5 eligibility for the 2002 college drafts. Some of the earlier drafts have made big leaps this year. Keeping as much as possible of this talent through the Rule 5 draft is a challenge. Here's an early look at some of the decisions that will have to made by the team.


The existing 40 man roster

I count 22 players who clearly will be protected:

Miguel Batista           Justin Miller       Francisco Rosario
Dave Bush Adam Peterson Gabe Gross
Vinnie Chulk Justin Speier Reed Johnson
Jason Frasor Josh Towers Alex Rios
Roy Halladay Kevin Cash Vernon Wells
Kerry Ligtenberg Guillermo Quiroz Josh Phelps
Ted Lilly Eric Hinske
Dustin McGowan Orlando Hudson


Many or most of the following will be protected, depending on contract status and performance the rest of this year:

Jason Arnold             Gregg Zaun          Jorge Sequea
Sean Douglass Carlos Delgado Chris Woodward
Bob File Chris Gomez John-Ford Griffin
Greg Myers Frank Menenchino Frank Catalanotto
Kevin Frederick


Howie Clark, Dave Berg, Bobby Estalella, Mike Nakaumura, Aquilino Lopez and Valerio de los Santos are unlikely to be on the 40 man roster at the time of the Rule 5 draft. I estimate that there will be 6-8 spots available for additions to the list, allowing that the team may wish to leave a spot or two for a Rule 5 selection of its own.

The new Rule 5 eligibles

These players will be eligible to be chosen, and could conceivably be chosen, in the coming Rule 5 draft if not on the 40 man roster:

Russ Adams                John Hattig             Carlo Cota
Brandon League Jordan DeJong Rodney Medina
Gustavo Chacin Ron Davenport Davis Romero
Miguel Negron Ismael Ramirez Robinson Diaz
Raul Tablado Vince Perkins


Jordan's July farm report has the lowdown on each of these prospects. Only Adams and League are sure things to be added to the 40 man roster. If Gustavo Chacin continues to perform at the same high level of the last month or so, you would think that he too would be added.

I wouldn't think that Jordan DeJong, Carlo Cota or Rodney Medina would make the 40 man roster, in light of age and performance. Davis Romero and Robinson Diaz are interesting cases; they are very young, talented, but have only played at low A Charleston. Gord Ash might very well be interested in them, but most GMs would take a pass.

The tough cases are Negron, Tablado, Hattig, Davenport, Ramirez and Perkins. Each of the position player prospects (Negron, Tablado, Hattig and Davenport) has made a leap forward this year, which makes assessing true talent level difficult. I would rank them in the order listed, but the players are close enough that performance in August could change my view. Hattig was acquired recently, and there may be some reluctance to leave him exposed for this reason, depending on whether he was seen primarily as support for the minor league system or as a bona fide hot prospect in his own right. Ismael Ramirez had put in two solid years, one in Charleston and another in Dunedin, but in context, they're not wildly impressive. He wouldn't make my list. Vince Perkins is recovering from injury, and will be watched through August.

Despite Dustin McGowan's serious injury and Francisco Rosario's difficult recovery from his surgery, it has been a good year for the Jay minor league system. It does make for some tough choices at Rule 5 draft time; one good player or maybe two could very well be lost. We'll check back on the picture just before the draft.
Decisions, Decisions- An early look at preparing the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jacko - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#44877) #
26 players, 17 spots.

Only 15 if the Jays want to be able to make a few selections of their own.

In:
Jason Arnold
John-Ford Griffin
Frank Catalanotto
Russ Adams
Brandon League
Gustavo Chacin
John Hattig
Raul Tablado
Vince Perkins
Gregg Zaun
Ron Davenport
Ismael Ramirez
Jordan DeJong
Carlo Cota (or is he the next Dominic Rich?)
WoodyOrGomezOrMenechino

Out:
Sean Douglass
Bob File
Greg Myers
Carlos Delgado
WoodyOrGomezOrMenchino x 2
Jorge Sequea
Miguel Negron (cut bait)
Robinson Diaz (not advanced enough to stick?)
Rodney Medina
Davis Romero (not advanced enough to stick?)

Roster management is a _tough_ job!
_Rob - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#44878) #
Well, I'll make a prediction as to the other prospective members of the 40 man roster:

Pitchers (17)
Batista
Bush
Chacin
Chulk
Douglass
Frasor
File
Halladay
League
Ligtenburg
Lilly
McGowan
Miller
Peterson
Rosario
Speier
Towers

Catchers (3)
Cash
Quiroz
Zaun

Infielders (10)
Adams
Delgado
Gomez
Hattig
Hinske
Hudson
Menechino
Phelps
Sequea
Tablado

Outfielders (8)
Catalanotto
Griffin
Gross
Johnson
Negron
Medina
Rios
Wells

With two spots left over for any Rule 5 selections or free agents.
_jim854 - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#44879) #
Can someone from the batters box brain trust please explain the rules re the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft? It seems to me that teams can exploit the good player selections made by the Jays and others, for example, last year we lost 5 players to other teams. Is there a limit to the number we can lose? Who is eligable for this draft? etc., etc.,
Thanks.
_Nigel - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#44880) #
Mike, off your 1st list, I think Rosario and Cash are in trouble. As has been mentioned here before, its likely that one of Myers or Zaun (likely Zaun) will be around next year so unless Quiroz needs more time in AAA I think Cash will be gone. Rosario is much harder but unless he is able to show some signs of returning to health in August or in the AFL (I think he's a perfect candidate to go there) you might have to cut bait and risk that no one else will be able to carry him on the roster for a full year.

Given the lack of offensive punch in Toronto, Syracuse and New Hampshire I think you have to favour some offense, Hattig, Tablado and Davenport have to stay. Negron is a really hard call given his age. His stats say that he is behind both Tablado and Davenport (considerably) but he has time on his side. I think you might gamble with him and leave him unprotected.

Davis Romero I think you have to protect. He is exactly the type of guy a major league team could stash on its roster for a year. A lefty with plus stuff profiles well as a LOOGY for a year at the major league level. Of all the Jays prospects at AA or below I think he is the most likely to get picked in a Rule 5 draft.
Craig B - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#44881) #
Jim,

The minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft is for players who are not on a AAA or AA roster (I believe these are 35- or 38-man rosters) but have completed three years of minor league service (if the player was drafted prior to the age of 19) or two years of minor league service (if the player was drafted after the age of 19... 19 is from memory. Essentially, it's one year less than the major league Rule 5 limits).

Instead of the $50,000 fee to sign a player in the major league portion, minor-league Rule 5'ers cost $12,000 in the AAA phase and $5,000 in the AA phase. There is no limit to the number of players you can lose, but I think there are only three rounds in each, like the major league portion. Teams who are weak in particular areas in their farm systems frequently use these drafts to draft "organizational soldiers". It's very rare for a player from this portion to make the majors, but it does happen; Wiki Gonzalez cost the Padres just $5,000. The best Blue Jay minor league Rule 5 draftee is certainly Jorge Sequea who was snatched from Detroit.

The rules are like the major league portion; the player must spend all year on the active roster or DL at the level he was picked at, or be offered back to his original team at half-price.
Craig B - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#44882) #
Also, the Mets got Eric Valent from the Reds in the minor league Rule 5.

One interesting guy the Jays lost in last year's minor league Rule 5 was Mark Comolli, a non-prospect who was picked by Tim Wilken for the D-Rays and who is being converted into a knuckleballer. He's not exactly having a lot of success yet with it (101 walks in 95 innings so far and a 7.27 ERA) but it's interesting nonetheless.
_Spicol - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#44883) #
Only 15 if the Jays want to be able to make a few selections of their own.

Of course, it always depends on who is available, but since the Jays are on the upswing and have a deep system, it's unlikely that you'll see JP pick a Rule 5 player. The roster spot is better served saving one of their own prospects than it is taking a gamble on someone else's suspect.
_Ryan01 - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#44884) #
As far as the rule 5 guys go here's the order I think they should be protected in:
Adams
League
Tablado
Hattig
Negron
Chacin
Perkins
De Jong
Ramirez
Davenport

Off for sure: Bubbie, Romero, Diaz, Medina, Cota

I would guess the cutoff would be somewhere before or after Chacin.

Diaz is a talent but he's clearly not ready for the majors. Even if there was room for him I don't think you add him. He'd most likely run out of options before he was ready and we'd end up losing him anyways. Similar problem with Romero but I think he's definitely a bigger risk.

Hattig is a minor league free agent after this season anyways. So if he's not added to the 40 man he's likely gone even before the rule 5 draft. I don't think the Jays would have held out for him if they were going to let him walk at the end of the season.
_Smack - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#44885) #
Robinzon Diaz was only in low A, so I am guessing Robinson Diaz is someone else, yet could not find him on our great minor league depth chart.

I would rather lose Sequea than Negron, and I really hope JP protects or atleast trades Phelps or Woodward, instead of losing them for nothing. Since we will experience this problem for the next few years with our drafting, can we trade a bunch of C prospects for a B prospect or something, to optimize our losses?
_Marc - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#44886) #
The Jays have to protect Davis Romero... They need lefties and he looks like a good one. The Tigers took Lefty Wil Ledezma from the Red Sox two years ago out of low A and I am pretty sure Twins ace Johan Santana came out of the Astros' low A team.

And there is no way the Jays will cut Rosario. He has too much promise, just read what BA says about him.

I think some team will take a flyer on Ismael Ramirez too. His numbers have been pretty solid the last couple years, but not spectacular. Same with Negron. Teams drafting in the Rule 5 like outfielders with speed and tools.

Others people eligible for the draft, but not mentioned:
Cameron Reimers, John Ogiltree, Ryan Houston, Edward Buzachero, Chad Pleiness, Tracy Thorpe, D.J. Hanson, Justin Maureau, Eric Rico, Simon Pond, Tyrell Godwin, Tim Whittaker, Dominic Rich, Maikel Jova, Rob Cosby, Manuel Mayorson, Juan Peralta, David Smith.

Chris Leonard was also signed out of college three years ago and could be eligible, which might be a reason why the Jays don't want him to surface outside of short season ball this year.
_Smack - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#44887) #
What happens when you exclude a player from the roster? Like say Woodward was left off. If he isnt drafted, what happens?
_Marc - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#44888) #
He either goes through waivers and/or becomes a free agent, if the Jays don't offer him a contract .
_Finn McCool - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#44889) #
There is no way Rosario is not going to be protected. If he were unprotected there's a good chance Rosario, a pitcher with unlimated potential would be the first player taken this winter in the Rule 5 draft.

Don't protect Rosario and he's gone!
_Ducey - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#44890) #
I'm confused on this (as well as other things). College players are not able to be drafted in the Rule 5 for 2 years, right? So college guys drafted before 2003 have to be protected.

What's up with highschoolers/ non college guys? Do they get longer protection?

I thought this is Negron's 1st year of eligibility for the Rule 5. If so, why is League (drafted a year later) at risk this year?
robertdudek - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#44891) #
Negron could have been snatched last year but wasn't. It has to do with the age they sign: players who sign when they are under 19 (I believe) have one extra year before they have to be protected.
_Marc - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#44892) #
College players have three years before they can be drafted. High school players are safe for four years.
_Spicol - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#44893) #
It doesn't matter what sort of school the player went to, it's the age when he was signed. Players signed at age 18 or before don't have to be protected for the first 3 Rule 5 drafts that take place after they sign. Players signed at age 19 or later have to be protected after 2 Rule 5 drafts.

Negron was eligible for the draft last year. He could have been chosen but wasn't.
_Ryan01 - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#44894) #
Romero actually has better numbers than both Ledezma and Santana. Unfortunately his stuff, as far as I know, just isn't in the same class as those two right now and that what they were picked for, their stuff. He's also has a considerably smaller frame than those two and just doesn't project as well. He's a risk but I don't think I'd want to lose someone like Griffin, Negron or Hattig for a guy who could be a good reliever in 3 or 4 years if he can stay healthy.

I'd gaurantee you that Rosario would NOT be picked in the rule 5 draft if he were taken off the roster. That's of course because he'd be snapped off of waivers long before he'd ever make it to the rule 5 draft. Keep that in mind for guys like Sequea, Arnold, Griffin, etc who are already on the roster and have options. It's much easier to just claim a guy off waivers because you don't even have to keep him on the majors for a year.
Mike Green - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#44895) #
A player who is left off the 40 man roster, but not chosen in the Rule 5 draft, remains in the organization. The spelling of Robinzon Diaz' name was changed at the beginning of this year.

This discussion has persuaded me that I need to study patterns in prior Rule 5 drafts (pitchers vs. position players at different developmental levels). How often does a young pitcher get taken from Low A? A young position player? I don't know the answers to these questions.
_Spicol - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#44896) #
Mike, there's some good info on what kind of player usually gets taken here.
_Peter - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#44897) #
I think more vets will be excluded than has been originally suggested. Traded or left unprotected could be: de Los Santos, Lopez, Towers(likely traded),Nakamura, Myers, Estallella, Gomez(FA), Woodward, Delgado, Clark. Cash or Phelps could be traded and not necessarily for someone who needs protection especially in case of Cash. I believe this will free up sufficient space.

I don't think they will leave room for selections but will and should hold on to their own.

As for some individuals mentioned as being on the bubble or left off that I have strong opinions about:

Robinson Diaz - protected - I know you usually don't lose someone from low A but in this case why take a chance when it only means releasing someone like Woodward or Clark in order to make room

Ramirez - protected

Chacin - slam dunk to be protected

Tablado and Negron - could go either way as I doubt either would be selected by anyone else esp. Negron. If it came down to last spot I would keep Tablado though I would protect Diaz or Ramirez over either.

Sequea- likely to be kept as a back up over the likes of Woodward, Berg though I wouldn't bet heavily on this one

Rosario - has to be protected

Perkins - will not be protected. It is much more important to keep someone like Diaz at a position where there is little depth and high injury risk than an oft injured pitcher who has yet to prove himself in A ball

Hattig - it all depends on how he does the rest of the way/a close call
_Peter - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#44898) #
Add to the non-protected vet list: Sean Douglass
_BCMike - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#44899) #
...and I really hope JP protects or atleast trades Phelps or Woodward, instead of losing them for nothing.

They are already protected, and as far as I know both would have to clear waivers in order to remove them from the 40 man roster(ie unprotect them).
_Peter - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#44900) #
Phelps would surely be protected if he is not traded. Woodward, with his present illness and level of production, has little or no value and might simply have to be waived.
_Nigel - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#44901) #
I understand the support for Rosario but its based on Rosario The Healthy not on Rosario The Not So Healthy. He's 24 already and has pitched very few innings this year and none last. Even before he got injured he'd pitched a grand total of 60 innings above low A. If he can prove he's healthy then I agree, you roll the dice on him, if not you have to cut bait.
_Finn McCool - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#44902) #
Ryan01 is right Rosario's already on the 40 man roster, and to take him off Rosario would have to clear wavers, and Rosario would not clear wavers. Why, two words Gord Ash. Ash as we've all seen over the last couple of years likes to take little shots at his former organization by snatching players, like Jesse Harper the jays are trying to have clear wavers
_jim854 - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#44903) #
Thanks, Craig, for the explanation. I appreciate your time and effort.

I hope that the Jays don't lose anyone in the rule 5 draft that may come back to haunt them in later years.

It seems to me that the roster numbers make it rather tough to keep all the players you draft and develop. Only 15 players not on the 25 man roster can be protected. That's tough!! Do other sports have roster numbers as difficult and as severe as MLB?

Another question - why isn't McGowan on the 60 day DL to free up a space on the 40 man roster? Thanks again!
_Nigel - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#44904) #
Here's my list. I think you need to start with the 25 man roster because there will be FA additions in the offseason:

25 Man:

Pitchers

Batista
Bush
Halladay
Lilly
Miller
Frasor
Chulk
Lightenburg
Speier
LOOGY-FA
Frederick/Reliever-FA

Position Players

Quiroz
Zaun/Veteran C-FA
Hinske
Hudson
Gross
Johnson
Rios
Wells
Phelps
F-Cat
Gomez/Veteran SS-FA
1B-FA
Menechino
Woodward/SS-FA

Remaining 15:

Adams
McGowan
League
Hattig
Chacin
Tablado
Davenport
D Romero
Peterson
JFG
Sequea
Towers/Douglass (whichever you don't keep you cut)
Negron

2 of (depending on health and AFL performance):

Arnold
Rosario
Perkins
Ramirez

Of this last group, if all are healthy, I would choose Rosario and Perkins.

Not making the cut but still interesting prospects (in my opinion):

Diaz
Medina
Cota
Pistol - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#44905) #
The 25 man roster - everyone there has to be on the 40 man roster. So you'd likely have 12 pitchers, 2 catchers, 5 OFs, and 5 IFs and a DH.

Halladay
Batista
Lilly
Bush
Miller
Frasor
Chulk
Ligtenberg
Towers
3 open spots

Cash
open spot

Hudson
Hinske
3 open spots

Wells
Johnson
Rios
2 open spots

Phelps

The 'open spots' would need to be filled by free agents or arb eligible players, but one way or another they'd would have to be filled.

From there you'd have 15 spots left for minor leaguers that need to be protected (or spots left open).

Locks:
Gross
Adams
Quiroz
Peterson
League
Rosario
JFG
McGowan

That gets me to 33, leaving, at most, 7 spots.
Hattig
Negron
Sequea
Diaz
D Romero
Tablado
Davenport
_Smack - Friday, August 06 2004 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#44906) #
Looks like we should vote on who we leave off the 40 man.
_John S - Saturday, August 07 2004 @ 02:42 AM EDT (#44907) #
Several lists up already look about right to me. Here's my list, with some slight differences and tentative names in some of the OPEN spots.

25 Man

Halladay
Batista
Lilly
Bush
Towers/OPEN (I'd like to see Towers back)

Frasor
Speier/OPEN (I'd try and upgrade here)
Ligtenberg
(OPEN - LOOGY)
Frederick/OPEN (My preference: Ask me in 2 months)
Chulk
Miller

Quiroz (I think Cash gets traded, and we start Q next April)
Zaun/OPEN (Zaun's fine as a veteran backup)

Delgado/OPEN (torn on whether to try and bring him back)
Hudson
Adams (I'd start him next April as well)
Hinske
Menechino/OPEN (My preference: Mighty mouse!)
Gomez/OPEN (I think this spot is super OPEN, myself)

Gross
Wells
Rios
Johnson
Catalanotto/OPEN (the DH spot: depends what the options are)

Additional 13 players, in alphabetical order, w/comments

Arnold (I still like him, think he's worth protecting)
Chacin (Lock)
League (Lock)
McGowan (Lock)
Peterson (Lock)
Ramirez (I think he could get claimed, and I'm high on him)
D.Romero (See Ramirez comment: I could see Milwaukee taking him)
Rosario (Lock in my view)

Crozier (Lock: likely in an OPEN spot, but here for now)
Griffin (Lock)
Hattig (2nd tier Lock)
Negron (Don't think he'd get claimed, but on here to be safe)
Sequea (2nd tier Lock)

39th Man: Tablado (See Negron comment)
40th Man: Diaz (See Tablado, but spots are running out)
41st Man: Perkins (See Diaz, but possibly no space left)
42nd Man: Davenport (See Perkins, with definately no space left)

No room left for Rich, Medina, Cota, and the rest

Because injuries happen, it would probably be best to set a 38 or 39 man roster and keep a spot or two open so we can easily add a Clark, an Estalella, or a Nakamura if we need to. I'd go with 39 myself, as Sequea, Hattig, Peterson, Arnold (wishful, I know) and our old friend the 60 Day DL appear to provide enough additional support to cover our injury fill in needs, barring another 2004-esque epidemic. If Peterson and Arnold both seem too far off, then I'd go with 38 (as I think we should be prepared for 2 of our pitchers being on the 15 day DL simultaneously at some point during the season. It would be nice to be prepared for 3 or 4 (non 60 day DL cases), but if it's 3 we can just cut the pitching staff to 11 men.)
Decisions, Decisions- An early look at preparing the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft | 31 comments | Create New Account
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