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In a postseason of incredible excitement, this World Series looked like an anti-climax from the beginning. Many avid baseball fans simply don't care who wins. Craig's "a pox on both your houses" sentiment about the ALCS could easily apply to teams owned by the misunderstood Steinbrenner and the detestable Loria.

In Game 1, a lethargic Yankees lineup, no doubt emotionally drained by the awesome Boston series, couldn't solve Brad Penny or Ugueth Urbina, neither of whom had their best stuff, and Juan Pierre's wheels made the difference. Game 2 featured more typical Bronx Bombing and a superb start by Andy Pettitte, so it was too one-sided to be really intense. I'm expecting more passion on both sides this evening, but I won't be able to comment much (if at all) on the game thread. So here are a few thoughts in advance...


Florida's 23-year-old ace takes the mound in the biggest game of his brief career. Josh Beckett is more than just confident, he's cocky, to the point of annoying opponents and even some teammates. The Texan, whose idols growing up were Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens, said immediately after his Game 5 win in the NLCS that there would be a Game 7, he would pitch in it, and the Marlins would win. That makes him a better prognosticator than most of us, who figured there was no way to beat Prior and Wood in consecutive games at Wrigley. The youngster isn't exactly in awe of tonight's assignment.

"I've pitched big games all my life," Beckett told Miami Herald columnist Dan Le Batard. "This is like pitching in the state championship in high school. People say it isn't the same, that it can't be, but it is. At the time, that was the biggest thing in the world to me. At the time, it was the World Series. The adrenaline is the same. There's a level where it tops out, and it doesn't matter if there are 70,000 people there or not."

Of course, Beckett shouldn't even be in this spotlight. He should be the ace of the Devil Rays staff, but instead of taking one of the greatest high school pitchers of all time (many scouts say the best ever) with the first overall draft pick, Tampa chose the wrong Josh -- outfielder Hamilton. That hasn't worked out so well for the Rays, but Beckett, the Marlins and their fair-weather fans are grateful.

In the New York Post, Kevin Kernan provides the Yankees' perspective on the flamethrowing righty. GM Brian Cashman said, "He's been their best pitcher. [Our scouting report] made him sound a lot like a young version of Curt Schilling." There's also a chart indicating Beckett's tendencies in pitch location -- while he moves the ball around against lefties, he's got the classic up-and-in, down-and-away approach to righthanded batters.

Though the Marlins probably wouldn't be here without Beckett's heroic four innings of relief work last Wednesday, just two days after pitching the game of his life, I'm wondering about the toll of 160 pitches in 72 hours. Sure, Game 7 was his scheduled day to throw a "side," but that's in the bullpen, at 80%, not against live hitters desperate to stave off elimination. If not for the double duty, Josh's next would have been with one extra day of rest on Saturday. One of my bushy eyebrows was raised when Trader Jack selected Redman to start Game 2; it suggested to me that Beckett's arm didn't bounce back too well. It's now nine days since his last start and six since he came out of the bullpen. So he's rested, but is he 100%?

Remember, despite his courage, Beckett didn't dominate in that relief appearance, giving up a homer and several fly balls to the warning track. He could be great tonight, like he was in the complete-game, 11 K shutout against the Cubs. He could be ordinary, like he was the start before, when he gave up eight hits, two homers and six earned runs in 6.1 IP in Game 1 of the NLCS. Or he could be very good but lose anyway, which is what happened when Jason Schmidt shut down the Marlins in the opener of the NLDS.

Florida, still without an extra-base hit in the Series, is not likely to explode against Mike Mussina. The Moose, whose postseason results have been disappointing, has shrugged that off by indirectly blaming his teammates. Not a way to win friends in the clubhouse, but true. He's 0-4 with a 4.58 ERA in his last seven postseason appearances, but one of those was a brilliant effort in the 2001 ALDS, when he traded zeroes with Barry Zito; the Yankees ended up winning 1-0 to turn that series around. Another was his incredible relief stint in Game 7 against the Red Sox five days ago.

The Yankees were already down 4-0, with Boston runners on first and third and nobody out. Mussina slammed the door shut, then proceeded to toss two more scoreless innings, which made the Yankee comeback possible. Though Grady Little's subsequent misplaced faith in Pedro Martinez got more attention, the Moose provided the turning point in one of the biggest games in baseball history.

The only Yankee batter who has faced Beckett is Aaron Boone, for a grand total of one at-bat. It was a good one -- he hit a three-run homer. A few Marlins are more familiar with Mussina, not that it figures to do them much good. Pudge Rodriguez is a mere 5-for-20 with a .600 OPS in their previous encounters, and Jeff Conine has a .692 OPS in 27 AB. Luis Castillo has managed two singles in nine trips (a .444 OPS) and Alex Gonzalez is 1-for-6, actually better than his abysmal 087/106/130 in 46 AB during this postseason.

Go ahead and laugh at my suggestion that Game 3 is a must-win for the Marlins, but it is. If the Yankees go up 2-1, this will be all over soon. Carl Pavano and Penny are not nearly as likely to shut down the New York attack as Clemens and Wells are to stifle the Fish, and Pettitte would return in Game 6. However, if Florida wins tonight, there's a strong possibility of a Game 7 rematch that would add some much-needed drama to this Series.

Perhaps all this is just an attempt to justify my "Yanks in five" prediction. I said before the Series began that Beckett would have a lot more trouble with the New York bats than he did with the Giants or Cubs. If he proves me wrong tonight, it's "game on" and I hope the Series does go the limit, because you can never have enough exciting baseball games.
Game 3 Preview | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Shrike - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#87903) #
Good preview, Coach. But, for the record, could you please explain why you draw such a large distinction between Steinbrenner & Loria? I tend to agree with you, even though I despise both owners with plenty of Craig's attitude shared out here on the West Coast, but it would be nice to see an explanation.

Josh Beckett has good reason to be confident. My two cents.
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#87904) #
I enjoyed the preview but an Advance Scout on these series would have been terrific. Robert did excellent work with the stats but the Advance Scout adds chutzba. Sorry I didn't suggest this earlier.
_Mick - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#87905) #
Wow, Coach, so my humble little foray into math tells me that the Yankees total career team OPS against Beckett is a perfect 5.000. I guess we don't need no stinkin' ZLC to know who'll win THIS game!

P.S. to Shrike ... I think Coach is biased by the fact that he knows Steinbrenner. Gizzi would probably find it harder to criticize GW Bush if the two of them went out for a beer, or in W's case, a soda water.
_Mike "Chut - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#87906) #
Adam, I'll do it for the postseason next year. The thing about the playoffs it that it usually makes the hard-to-find stories easier to find, on ESPN, CNNSI, etc.

And hopefully I'll have a Jays opponent to scout in next year's ALDS!
_Shrike - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#87907) #
Mick, thanks, I was aware of that fact. I was just hoping Coach would elaborate, for as much as I detest most everyone involved in this World Series except for Juan Pierre, I want to know if Kent can persuade me to peg Steinbrenner higher than Loria.
_Shrike - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#87908) #
By the way, I think it would take an awful lot to soften Gitz wrt Bush. Something miraculous, in fact.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#87909) #
http://economics.about.com
By the way, I think it would take an awful lot to soften Gitz wrt Bush. Something miraculous, in fact.

I don't want to know what it would take to soften Gitz. That kind of miracle would have to be something like "The Grinch Who Stole Christmas". Actually, "The Gitz Who Stole Conservatism" would make a pretty good movie.

---

"And the Gitz, with his grinch-feet ice-cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling: "How could it be so? "It came without Cheney! It came without Rush! It came without Thatcher, Reagan and Bush!" And he puzzled and puzzed, till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't thought of before! "Maybe Conservatives," he thought, "don't come from a store. "Maybe Conservatives...perhaps...mean a little bit more!"
_Tassle - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#87910) #
I asked Tosca about the bullpen on the pregame show and I don't think he was happy with the question. Am I the only one in the world who thinks he mismanaged the bullpen this year?
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#87911) #
There were some, at the worst of times, outrageous calls to the pen and at the best of times questionable ones. I didn't get a chance to tune in to the pregame show. What did you ask? What was the response?
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#87912) #
E-5!
_Grimlock - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#87913) #
Boy, that looked like strike three to me.
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#87914) #
Well if it was strike three then Lowell should still be up. Blue's got one creative strike zone this evening. The Marlins are probably more at risk for losing their composure because of the age/maturity in their lineup and their ace.
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#87915) #
Ahhh, the rain.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#87916) #
I was listening on the radio. Joe Morgan was very critical of Beckett's pitch selection that inning. He threw five or six curveballs, none for strikes. One walked Giambi, one hit Matsui and one was thrown for a ball to Posada at 1-2.

In the rain delay Jason Stark and Dave Campbell both say that Darling missed strike three to Posada. Campbell called it Richie Garcia syndrome.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#87917) #
I asked Tosca about the bullpen on the pregame show and I don't think he was happy with the question. Am I the only one in the world who thinks he mismanaged the bullpen this year?

Tosca squirmed and didn't really answer the question. However he did say that at the start of the year he had a lot of inexperienced arms in the pen and had to figure out what they could do. He then praised Miller, Lopez and Kershner. I am not sure if he was suggesting that as he gained confidence in them he left them in more. It is a weak argument, but maybe its Tosca's defence right now.

If you check the archives on the site, you fill find the equivalent of War and Peace written on Tosca's handling of the pen.

You are not alone.
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#87918) #
It was boarderline and I could have accepted that a reasonable person would perceive both ball two and three to Posada as balls (though it would be a fairly small zone) except for the fact that Mr Umpire, Sir, called Lowell out on an identical pitch and, now that I recall, Cabrera as well.

Delay is done. We're back to baseball and Piere slaps a single to left with 2-out. But that pitch was high and outside.

As I finish this, the inning ends with Pierre finally getting thrown out. Is that a first this post season?
robertdudek - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#87919) #
His fourth caught stealing. Looked like he might have beat the tag.
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#87920) #
That's BAD base running by a flat-footed vet. You don't run from third until you know the ball is past the pitcher. That's going back to the basics!
_A - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#87921) #
I've bitched about God Bless America before but at least the guy at Yankee Stadium can belt it out with some quality vocal cords. That man was terrible.
Mike D - Tuesday, October 21 2003 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#87922) #
Coach,

I understand hitting mechanics better than I understand pitching mechanics...but still, how does Dontrelle Willis cope with so many different release points? His set position is a mess; sometimes a super-high kick, sometimes a slide step, sometimes a funky in-between motion.

Is this a bad omen for his health? Or his consistency?
_A - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#87923) #
That shot to left by Boone makes this a terribly difficult situation for the Marlins with Rivera already shutting them down neatly for a 1-2-3 8th. The only way this isn't a 2-inning save is if the Yankees blow it wide open this inning.
_A - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#87924) #
No longer a save situation.
_Grimlock - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#87925) #
Man, these Toronto1 guys suck!
_A - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#87926) #
I retract the save situation bit. Rivera gets the "save" but it really shouldn't be one. MLB's gotta review the criteria this winter.
_Mark - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 03:19 AM EDT (#87927) #
A: How was Rivera's performance any less significant or valuable than a pitcher, say Mr. X, who pitches a scoreless 9th to record a save with a 1, 2 or 3 run lead?

Rivera tonight: 1 inning with a 1-run lead plus 1 inning with a 5-run lead
Mr. X: 1 inning with a run (or more) lead.

Rivera's performance is at least as valuable (even if his 9th doesn't count for very much). It doesn't make sense, given the existing parameters of the save rule, to penalize Rivera for his team's offense in the top of the 9th. The fact remains that he came on when the game was close, and finished the game without surrendering the lead.

I don't personally find the save rule all that dumb -- the *real* problem, as Bill James points out in the NHBA, is that managers don't optimize their bullpen usage to win games, they optimize it to rack up high save totals for the "star reliever".

The save does represents something pretty concrete -- as a pitcher, you went into the game with a small lead (yeah, except for the rare 3 "effective" inning rule), and you finished out the game and your team won and the lead didn't change hands. I can maybe see arguments for tightening up the definition a bit, say, tossing the "3 effective innings" rule, which is subjective and the game is often a blowout in this case anyway, or maybe making it 1 inning, 1 or 2 run lead, but I don't have any huge problems with the save.
_A - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 03:49 AM EDT (#87928) #
To me, a save is in the 9th (or final) inning when your opponent is within one or two runs.
I reject that pitching the final 3 or less innings of a 3-run ball game should line you up for a save. There is also a loophole in that no blown save is awarded when a pitcher gives up the lead between the 7th and 8th innings if they inherit the lead. It simply makes him the pitcher of record.
In theory, we could reward every pitcher that comes in mid way through the game with a save if they don't give up the lead and they're on top by no more than three runs at their point of entry. Except, in my mind the ninth (or final) inning is the pressure packed inning during a baseball game and only the pitcher who can perform in that inning under the tight circumstances of a 1 or 2 run lead is deserving of a stat that is now the equivelant to one peso.
Craig B - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#87929) #
Rivera gets the "save" but it really shouldn't be one. MLB's gotta review the criteria this winter.

I just don't see it as being that important. Does it really matter what the statistic's definition is? It's just a stat. One also needs to consider that changing the definiton would probably require another extensive search back through the records, to recount saves for 100+ years of records again. Frankly, that's the very last thing anyone wants to do.

The last thing we want is a situation where the rule ends up getting changed every 15 years, like the definition of a sacrifice used to be.
Coach - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#87930) #
could you please explain why you draw such a large distinction between Steinbrenner & Loria?

Sorry for not responding sooner, Sean. I went out two minutes after I posted this, and was very late getting home.

George's "crimes" include losing his temper at employees, and spending obscene amounts of his own money every year in an effort to win. His fellow owners hate that; many of them are much more interested in lining their pockets with your money and mine than they are in competing on the field. Loria is the worst example of the latter category. But don't take my word for it; the 14 minority owners he fleeced have already made it clear in the RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) complaint filed last summer.

"From the beginning of Mr. Loria's involvement with the Expos, he and his co-conspirators engaged in a scheme that had as its object the destruction of baseball in Montreal, so that Mr. Loria and his co-conspirators could justify relocating the franchise to the United States," the owners said in the complaint.

They accused Loria and his staff of conduct "that effectively destroyed the economic viability of baseball in Montreal (that) included removing the Expos from local television, subverting well-developed plans for a new baseball stadium in downtown Montreal, purposefully alienating Expos' sponsors and investors, abandoning agreed-upon financial plans for the franchise, and undermining a planned recapitalization of the franchise that would have added new Canadian partners."


By the way, the "co-conspirators" included Loria's good pal the Commissioner and MLB, but I believe they have wriggled off the hook and left him to fight these allegations on his own.

In a nutshell, Loria had a lot of Canadian partners who controlled about 76 percent of the team. By deliberately and skillfully mis-managing the Expos -- making sure they had no English broadcasts was his master stroke, but he also killed a stadium deal that would have turned things around -- he put the franchise in a desperate position. But the partners, watching him run it into the ground, didn't want to throw good money after bad, so one by one, they refused his cash calls and relinquished their investments until Loria had a controlling interest. At that point, the fun began.

Bud wanted to contract the team, and Florida owner John Henry wanted the Red Sox. Never mind that others would have paid more for the Boston franchise, or that Loria's only expertise in owning a team seemed to be in destroying it, MLB magically made it all happen. They bought the Expos from Loria, gave him a big loan to buy the Marlins, and installed Henry in Boston.

The whole affair stinks, and what makes it worse is that the slimeball is probably going to get away with it. My guess is, the RICO suit will be dropped, the minority partners (outfits like Loblaws, Telemedia and assorted Bronfmans) will accept a settlement, and the Expos will be sold to another Selig pal. The smart money is on Steve Stone (who, like Loria, will have very little of his own dough involved) and his bid to place the club in Las Vegas.

If you want to see Juan Pierre win, or Josh Beckett, or Pudge, or Trader Jack, I completely understand. Good guys, easy to root for. But I can't get past the fact that the Marlins owner came into Canada and destroyed half of our teams, on purpose, to make himself even more wealthy. He doesn't deserve a ring, he deserves handcuffs.
Coach - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#87931) #
Oh yeah, the game. Josh Beckett is an absolute stud. He was awesome in the first three innings; unhittable. Forces of nature, including the rain and umpire Gary Darling's incredible shrinking strike zone, conspired against him, or he might have won a 1-0 shutout.

I thought he struck Posada out twice on the bases-loaded walk. The high, tailing fastball might have finished up six inches outside, but it seemed to catch part of the plate on its way. The next one was on the black, at the knees -- another superb pitch. As McKeon tried to point out, the hitter can't get both of those calls; if the first one was high, how could the second one be low?

Mussina was great, too. It's not like Pierre's leadoff "double" was anything but a catchable popup that both Williams and Garcia misplayed, yet it counted as an earned run. I can always start my E-10 rant again at the drop of an easy out, but if that terminology offends you, let's just call them Plays Not Made -- the "team errors" that don't show up on a scorecard or in the stats. I'd like to see a supplementary scorer in place at all games, keeping track of PNM data, including baserunning gaffes, throws to the wrong base and a host of other invisible factors that contribute to winning and losing. I'd give Bernie, for another late jump, and Karim, for pulling up on the ball instead of calling it, each a one-base PNM, sharing the value of that ridiculous "double."

So I thought 1-1 was a representative score, even though it "should" have been 0-0, when McKeon failed to have Lee guarding the line against Jeter, and Derek took advantage. I know he's considered overrated by many observers, especially with the glove, but I'd find a place on my team for that guy. Again, bad luck for the Marlins -- it's easy to argue that the rain delay affected Beckett just enough that Jeter hit was a double instead of a foul ball.

The D-Train (I said a while ago it stood for "derailed," you might recall) did the rest, and the rest of the Marlins bullpen are arsonists, not firemen. Mike D, I think they are messing with the kid's head; the pitching coach likes him better from the stretch than the windup, even with nobody on. Plus, he's mentally and physically exhausted. Willis needs a few months off and will regroup next spring.

Anyway, it doesn't look good for the Marlins. The "must-win" slipped away, so now they face an uphill battle. Carl Pavano isn't exactly a stopper; he's pitched well in the postseason, mostly in relief, but he's unlikely to last six innings against a Yankee lineup that can taste the bubbly. Clemens has to be considered the favourite tonight, and while Penny did beat Wells in the opener, don't bet on it happening twice. Should the Fish win once, they will have a Hobson's choice in Game 6: the shell-shocked Redman, or Beckett on short rest.

To those who predicted Marlins in five -- you know who you are -- I repeat what I said before the Series: "Huh?"
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#87932) #
Coach,
"Plays not made" is a good stat idea.

By all rights, Florida should have been ahead 1-0 in the eighth (it's not right to equate umpire's errors with defensive lapses).

We never call managerial dilemmas "Hobson's" choice. It has a completely different meaning in the baseball context because of Butch.
_Steve Birnie - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#87933) #
George's "crimes" include losing his temper at employees, and spending obscene amounts of his own money every year in an effort to win.

IIRC, George has actually been CONVICTED of a crime, tax evasion I believe, and was pardoned by the redoubtable Richard Nixon. Or was it Ford?

George also hired a convicted criminal (whose name escapes me) to work for Dave Winfield's charitable foundation, in order to collect information to smear Winfield, and get George out of his contractual obligation to contribute to the foundation.

George's staunch opposition to sharing the huge revenue the Yankees generate (which occurs in the NFL and NBA) also imperils the survival of small market teams, including the Expos. Not nearly as bad as Loria's crimes, but George is certainly no friend of the financially vulnerable franchises.
Gitz - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#87934) #
Moffatt, don't give up the day job. For a writer of children's books and a movie producer, you'd make a fair economist.
_Steve Birnie - Wednesday, October 22 2003 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#87935) #
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/yankees/yankees.html
Boy, was I off!. George was actually convicted for illegal campaign contributions TO Nixon, and was pardoned by Reagan, as one of his last acts as president.

Click on my name for full details (and other Yankee transgressions).
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