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A fine, gripping ball game. Alas, a Tough Defeat.


Tampa and the Angels look to be as safe as houses, but three other AL teams are locked in a death match for the other two post-season berths. Beyond them... forget it. The Yankees are 5 games out of the Wild Card, the Blue Jays are 8 games out, and everyone else is in double figures.

As of this morning, the Red Sox are 75-55, the White Sox are 74-55, the Twins are 74-56. Only the top two will make it. Here's what remains for everyone:

BOSTON
Road (12) - at New York (3), at Texas (3), at Tampa (3), at Toronto (3),
Home (20): Chicago (3), Baltimore (3), Tampa (3), Toronto (4), Cleveland (4), New York (3)

CHICAGO
Road (19) - at Baltimore (3), at Boston (3), at Cleveland (3), at New York (4), at Kansas City (3), at Minnesota (3)
Home (13) - Los Angeles (3), Toronto (4), Detroit (3), Cleveland (3)
(The White Sox also have a suspended game against Baltimore to complete. They'll take care of that later today before the scheduled contest. The two team are actually in Baltimore tonight, but they'll pick up where they left off in Chicago on April 28, tied 3-3- after 11 innings.)

MINNESOTA
Road (20) - at Seattle (3), at Oakland (4), at Toronto (3), at Baltimore (3), at Cleveland (3), at Tampa (4),
Home (12) - Detroit (3), Kansas City (3), Chicago (3), Kansas City (3)

The Red Sox have by far the most favourable schedule. They might be the best team in the league anyway, and they're very good in their own park, which is where they get to play most of their remaining games. They are going to the post-season; the only question in my mind is whether it's now too late for them to catch up with Tampa. The Wild Card is coming out of the AL East, which has asserted itself again as clearly the strongest division in the AL. Four of the AL East teams have a winning record against AL Central Teams (the Yankees are 17-18); three AL East teams have a winning record against AL West teams (Baltimore is 15-16, Toronto is 17-19). Only two teams outside the division have a winning record against the AL East (Cleveland and Los Angeles).

As for the fight for the Central crown, I like the Twins. But it will probably come down to the final week, when the White Sox visit the Hubie Dome.


25 August - Heading for the Stretch | 88 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#191219) #
The Angels are definitely safe as houses, but the Rays aren't.  They've got 33 games left, and if they go 13-20 or something like that, they might very well miss the playoffs.  I don't think they will, but far stranger things have happened.
Jevant - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#191227) #
Sunday was a tough pill to swallow. 

As for the AL playoff teams, I like the Sox (squared).  I just feel the White Sox will hold off the Twins for the division, and I can't see the Red Sox not making the playoffs, for some reason.

damos - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#191228) #
The Globe is reporting that Robinson Diaz is the PTBNL in the Pirates deal.
Oh, & Kevin Mench has been sent down.  

Jevant - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#191229) #
Also this.

Mench to Syracuse, Diaz to the Pirates (for Jose Bautista).

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange that they're giving up Diaz for yet another utilityman?  How many do we need?

At least Bautista isn't leading the team in HR anymore (thanks Vernon!)

Squiggy - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#191230) #

I don't think it's strange at all, in light of past similar trades. They give up a failed (at least in their eyes) prospect for a marginally useful MLB player. As is often the case with JP, he trades when the value of the piece he is giving up is at, or near, it's nadir. Either way, it's no biggie IMHO. The chances of Bautista contributing to the Jays teams of the future is slightly higher than that of Diaz, which seemed to be nearing zero.
whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#191231) #

Robinson Diaz??? Are you out of your f'ing mind? 

I've attempted to discern JP's line of thinking that lead to that decision, but haven't been able to just yet.

I guess maybe its because our catching situation is so "clear" for next season.

Maybe those two walks that JPA took last week convinced Riccardi that he's ready for the big time. 

Perhaps he was happy with Eric Kratz's performance in the last 10 games (5/30) or maybe he read Curtis Thigpen's stat sheet wrong and thought his .567 OPS was his slugging percentage.

In the end I came up with the fact that our GM just has an irrational love for Utility Infielders.  Lord knows we couldn't just promote Hector Luna or Russ Adams, that would destroy our depth at that position.  "Better to deal from a position that the organization is very deep in (Catching) to add to a position that the organization is relatively weak in (utility infielders)"

YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH UTILITY INFIELDERS

rpriske - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#191232) #

I thought picking Bautista up was a good move... until now.

Bautista for Diaz is ridiculous. I really thought Diaz was going to be on the big club next year.

Gerry - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#191233) #

Leaving aside the merits of trading for another utility infielder, the Jays did have a logjam at catcher.  Diaz, Jeroloman and Arencibia (plus Thigpen) would each be looking for playing time next season as either a major league backup or in AAA.  Diaz has been injured a lot in the last two seasons and that has hurt his development.  Arguably he had been passed on the depth chart by Jeroloman and Arencibia.

I had thought the Jays might bring up Diaz in September to see if he could be the backup next season but the Jays now might have to sign a backup as Jeroloman and Arencibia need more minor league time and Thigpen appears to have topped out.  Diaz would have extra value to an NL team where his versatility would be a help with double switches.

whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#191234) #

Agreed rpriske... This better be a prelude to a trade for Russell Martin or Brian McCann.

It is never a good idea to go into free agency with absolutely no internal options (even for the backup spot) at a position.  He just handed Barajas an extra 1.5 million in bargaining power.

whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#191235) #
Gerry, the logjam at catcher is in the minors, I think most of us had Diaz as the MLB backup next season (and thus he would not be contributing to that logjam). Thigpen has that same versatility as Diaz but has flamed out at the major league level... he is precisely what we should have given up for Bautista. Nothing more
Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#191236) #
With the trade of Diaz, I got to thinking really hard about a comp for Arencibia.  The closest I could come was this guy. OK, I wasn't thinking that hard...

Bautista is listed as a DH by THT, and the Jays did send him out to pinch-hit for Stairs yesterday instead of Mench.  He would be a mediocre choice for the RH DH/40 games 3B role that may be planned for him.



MatO - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#191237) #
According to reports when Barajas signed, the club has an option for 2009 which I assume will be exercised  Ideally you'd just sign Zaun for another year as back-up (likely a better option than Diaz) but I guess that bridge has been burned.
christaylor - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#191238) #
I agree with everyone else's shock at Diaz being sent as the PTBNL but hopefully this is a case where organization knows something more about a "prospect" than the rest of us (see Andy Marte).
whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#191239) #
I thought the Barajas deal was a player option, but if its a club option then my opinion of the deal changes somewhat. Its a heck of alot easier to swallow going into the offseason having to sign only 1 catcher.
PeteMoss - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#191240) #
How about Matt Nokes for a comp for Arencibia?  http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nokesma01.shtml
MatO - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#191241) #

Everything I've read indicates it's a club option.  The link below says it's at 2.5M with a .5M buyout.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

Wildrose - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#191242) #
According to reports when Barajas signed, the club has an option for 2009 which I assume will be exercised

I was just looking at this situation this morning Barajas option only vests at 130 games, the most he can appear in this year is 119. Barajas will be a free agent. I'm not a big follower of minor league players  ( primarily because most people tend to drastically overate their own teams  prospects) , but Diaz sure looks like a marginal prospect, high average, poor walk rate, little power and a poor defensive reputation. He does appear to make some contact,
Wildrose - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#191243) #
Actually reading it again, I suppose the option can be picked up by the Jays regardless. The 130 games was most likely for the players benefit.
Mylegacy - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#191244) #
 Catchers anyone? Jeroloman, Arencibia, Jaspe, Talley, Collins, Liuzza. I'm high on all six. 
Pistol - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#191245) #
The Jays have a team option on Barajas, effectively for $2MM.  I don't think trading Diaz impacts that at all.

That the Jays gave up anything of value for Bautista, who I suspect would have been non-tendered by the Pirates, is silly.  Doing so when you already have Joe Inglett, Marco Scuturo and John McDonald signed up for 2009 is ridiculous.

Here's Diaz's BA the last several years:
2004- .287
2005- .294
2006- .306
2007- .320
2008- .244

So would someone look at that and think that 2008 is his new established level of performance or think that 2008 might be an aberration, due in part to injuries? 
Hodgie - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#191246) #

Perhaps, given the significant development time lost to injury, JP just figured he had seen this song and dance before eventhough in this production, the leading man does possess a drastically different skill set. Given the reviews from Seattle and Baltimore, JP may have done well to exchange his ticket when he could....

John Northey - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#191247) #
Lots of talk about a guy hitting nothing in the minors eh?

Quiroz was the first guy to come to my mind too though.  Q hit great at AA at 21 (282/360/518) but never again.  He has a 45 OPS+ for Baltimore this year in his first extended shot at the majors.

Diaz, surprising enough, has just 74 games in AA and 55 in AAA.  Outside of rookie ball his highest OPS for any level is AA where he hit 316/344/409 (753 OPS).  He will be 25 next season, has hit 276/296/367 in AAA total - worse than that this year.  He would project, at this point, as nothing much I'd have to think.  I was hopeful all season but looking close at his stats I'd say getting anything for him was probably a good thing.  Better to dump a bit early than a bit late. 

So, for 2009 I'd have to think that Brian Jeroloman has just jumped up to the front of the line.  His 606 OPS in AAA is nothing special, but his other level OPS's are impressive, going from A- at 689 to A+ at 759 to AA at 812.  His AAA numbers are improving (his OBP is 343 and he has played just 19 games so far) thus I would not be surprised, if his defense is sound, to see him here in 2009 early on at the age of 24 while JP Arencibia learns AAA at 23 with Kratz and Thigpen being minor league backups/emergency call ups along with a new AAAA guy.

The Jays big question is how best to go forward.  They have options on both Zaun ($3.75) and Barajas ($2.5 with $500k buyout).  Keeping both would cost $6.25 next year (or $5.75 vs signing neither).  I agree with many others that Zaun is toast while Barajas is here for 2009.  I'm sure JP can find another backup as he did before (Zaun, Barajas are both examples of finding cheap replacements) but will he choose to keep a spot for Jeroloman now?
FisherCat - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#191248) #

Is there any recent precedence of a MLB team bringing up a catching prospect to learn as the backup in the majors and have him eventually succeed as the full-timer?  I just fear the Jays' track record with all their recent catching prospects (i.e. Quiroz, Thigpen, Diaz) failing just one step short of the majors.  Why can't Jeroloman or JPA be the back-up next year and force the hand by July, August or September?

Also, any thoughts on what the corresponding move to the Mench demotion might be?  Coats, Adams...SNIDER?

Kieran - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#191249) #
Kevin Cash. Quillermo Quiroz. Curtis Thigpen. Robinson Diaz

The Jays recent development history at the catching position has been pretty brutal. I really hope JPA turns out to be something.

Paging Greg Myers. Paging Pat Borders.


whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#191250) #
Ok... so I've come back down off the ledge a bit on this trade (knowing that we have the option of keeping Rod). And yes, I definately think we do have good organizational depth at catcher... I just think its 2009 at the earliest that we'll see any of that help. I'm still not very happy about giving up Diaz (who I consider to have a little value) for a guy who probably has none. Pittsburgh was likely going to drop him rather than pay him 1.5 mil to stay at AAA. Thigpen (or cash considerations) was as far as we should have gone.
Kieran - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#191251) #
PS: How do the Jays keep optioning Mench to AAA without exposing him? Is it that he's not been through three years of options? Given that he has more than 6 years at the major league level, I'm surprised they can do this.
FisherCat - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#191252) #

Paging Greg Myers. Paging Pat Borders

...Paging Ernie Whitt (LOL)

John Northey - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#191253) #
Now there is the big question - who is coming up?  Not a pitcher I'd think as Cito has enough trouble finding time for 7 relievers.  We have just the 3 regular outfielders plus Stairs at the moment to go along with our massive number of utility infielders and 2 catchers.  2 backup infielders are enough I'd hope.  Thus an outfielder but why no announcement immediately?  Seems odd and suggests a trade might be happening.

I'd rank it... Coats, trade, Adams then Snider with a slim shot at it being a catcher (Jeroloman or Kratz with a very slight shot at Thigpen) to free up Zaun/Barajas to DH more often.
Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#191254) #
Nokes had very good strike zone control in the minors when he was young.  Arencibia is pushing 6-1 on the K/W front.

Diaz will be turning 25 in September.  When healthy, he'd hit .290 with few homers or walks and lots of double plays in the majors.  Assuming that his defence is tolerable, that would be an acceptable back-up catcher in the major leagues.  It is difficult to have too many catchers in a system; that combined with Bautista's status at the end of 2008 makes Pistol's point clear.

For now, it looks like Barajas/Jeroloman to begin 2008.  That would be OK if both are healthy.

Schad - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#191255) #
No disagreement that it was idiotic to give up Diaz (or anything more valuable than $50 and a collectible spoon) for a band-aid when the season is long over, but Diaz isn't much of a prospect in my eyes...he's the worst kind of mirage, a singles-only hitters whose primary skill is avoiding strikeouts. Major league pitching and major league defenses will surely cut down on his average, at which point he looks like a .270/.300/.360 guy who plays well defensively. Good enough to earn ABs as a back-up, but easily replaced and likely to be hurting a team more than he's helping it.

As for Jeroloman, if he gets a ML shot next year, the organization has to be prepared to give him at least six weeks of action and an equal time share with Barajas. It's a good match on paper; Barajas has quite the reverse platoon split going on this year (and he's neutral over the course of his career), so Jeroloman should receive all of the at-bats against lefties and be spoon-fed lesser righties. The results will probably end up underwhelming at best, but that would be my preference over signing another aged vet to bridge the gap to Arencibia, which would only further the minor league logjam of mediocrity at catcher.

whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#191256) #

FisherCat,

Giovanni Soto comes to mind as a guy who was brought up to backup initially and then succeeded.  Brian McCann did too I believe (although he may have just been called up to be the starter).

Maybe Wayne Lydon makes sense as the move to counteract Mench?  He'd give Cito a pinch runner and in those close and late situations and a realistic defensive sub for Lind (although his D has really improved) if need be.

Mike Forbes - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#191257) #
Mench down, Buck Coats up? Just a guess.
whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#191258) #

Schad, I actually like your scenario on paper.  Unfortunately I think the process will be more like:

Sign Sal Fasano as backup, Fasano backs up (hitting .093) until July, Jerolman comes up and backs up from July on (playing sparingly because we're "in a pennant race"), Arencibia gets called up in September, Jerolman gets passed over.

 

FisherCat - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#191259) #

Another thought W/R/T the Mench transaction...

With the Jays' losing 2 of 3 to the Sox, might they finally be realizing that it's time to play for 2009 instead of the slim hopes that are 2008?

Which begs the question might it be "FREE TRAVIS SNIDER" time?  I don't necessarily agree with it if this is the move, but it would make for a fun 5 weeks!

Think about it, you'd be letting Snider face Tampa, Boston, NYY, Twins, ChiSox and NONE of those teams are going to be trotting out AAA / AAAA type lineups like you might normally see in September.

MatO - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#191260) #
The sad part is that Borders and Myers might just be the best catchers drafted and developed by the Jays (Whitt was in the expansion draft).  The Jays have been historically abysmal at it.  It wouldn't take JPA very much to be the best ever.
whiterasta80 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#191261) #

If we're going to rush him to the majors I think I might prefer him to face AAAA lineups rather than teams in a pennant race.  I have no interest in destroying his confidence.

FisherCat - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#191262) #

If we're going to rush him to the majors I think I might prefer him to face AAAA lineups rather than teams in a pennant race.  I have no interest in destroying his confidence.

Judging from many of the recent articles regarding what he's been dealt with in his personal life over the last 2 years, I doubt that 0 for 4 w/4 K's against a Josh Beckett / Mike Mussina / Scott Kazmir are going to phase him much.

Ducey - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#191263) #

I just don't get this whole thing.  Bautista is of little use to the Jays given that they are not making the playoffs and that they already have a pack of middle infeilders.  What happens if Hill and Rolen come back healthy next year? Scooter and Mighty Joe are likely the backups, with MacDonald still around and hopefully some reasonable facsimilie of a full time SS too.  If Hill or Rolen don't come back, they better have someone better (or with more potential) than Bautista as the replacement.

So they give up Diaz for a rental when they don't need a rental.

Why not see if Diaz can turn it around?  JP could then see if he can help the big club or at least trade him when he is worth a little more.  Diaz looks like he will never hit for much power, but he seems like he can hit close to .300.  For a backup catcher this would be a useful feature.  Maybe a poor man's Jason Kendall?

Odds are that Diaz will never be a useful big leaguer.  I guess I would have given JP the benefit of the doubt early on in his tenure about this move, but I can't now.

Schad - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#191264) #

Schad, I actually like your scenario on paper.  Unfortunately I think the process will be more like:

Sign Sal Fasano as backup, Fasano backs up (hitting .093) until July, Jerolman comes up and backs up from July on (playing sparingly because we're "in a pennant race"), Arencibia gets called up in September, Jerolman gets passed over.


No doubt that you're right. If I thought that signing a cheap vet was designed to allow our quasi-prospects to develop, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately, JP seems to have a fetish for paying $1-3m for replacement-level near-retirees, so my scenario probably grades out between pipe dream and acid flashback on the reality scale.

Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#191265) #
As it is summertime, and the livin' is easy, here's a BBRef treat.  Your August 30 birthday team is good and getting better:

C  -  Cal McVey
1B-  Johnny Lindell
2B-  Luis Rivas
SS-  Dave Chalk
3B-  Billy Johnson
LF-  Ted Williams
CF-  Kiki Cuyler
RF-  Bing Miller

SP- Cliff Lee
SP- Adam Wainwright
SP- Todd Wellmeyer
SP- Pol Perritt
SP- Tom Seaton

RP- Tug McGraw
RP- Frank Funk
RP- Mike Koplove
RP- Renie Martin or Red Embree
RP- Roger Erickson or Sean Marshall

Bench- Marlon Byrd, Pete Weckbecker (your generic backup C), Russ Adams, Carmen Fanzone, and Bucky Jacobsen.

You've got five strong starters, but no ace (unless Cliff Lee continues on his merry way), a fine closer and acceptable support.  On offence, you've got a great outfield and a mediocre infield.  The Twins of 03 won 90 games with Rivas and Guzman in the middle infield, and Jacque Jones was not reminding anyone of Ted Williams.


Flex - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#191266) #
Wow, we're all having fun jumping on Ricciardi's carcass today,huh? Over a minor deal that won't change anything?

And let's not speak too ill of Quiroz and Cash, by the way. Far as I know they're both in the majors.
92-93 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#191267) #
"And let's not speak too ill of Quiroz and Cash, by the way. Far as I know they're both in the majors."

I think when people speak ill of them, it's relative to their peers - obviously making the big leagues is quite the accomplishment, and signifies a talent level it's safe to assume no commenter possesses. But that doesn't mean John Schuerholz deserves praise for bringing Tony Pena Jr. into the bigs.

All this hair-pulling over Robinzon Diaz is certainly strange ; guys who don't project to even be everyday players are always expendable, and the reaction in here is nothing short of amazing.
Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#191268) #
A bad back-up catcher (Jason Phillips, Ken Huckaby) can hurt a club. It's not as obvious as missing a big bat in the middle of the lineup, but it can cost you a win or so in a year.
Maldoff - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#191269) #
Well said 92-93. I'd also like to add that everyone here seems to be upset about adding another piece that the Jays already have. Personally, I would much rather have Bautista than Joe Inglett anyways. Joe won't keep this up, and Bautista can actually give you some pop from 3B when he is playing there.
rtcaino - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#191270) #

“Barajas has quite the reverse platoon split going on this year (and he's neutral over the course of his career), so Jeroloman should receive all of the at-bats against lefties and be spoon-fed lesser righties.”

Jeroloman bats left though correct?

Since Barajas has a career neutral split, and is likely to revert to it, wouldn’t allowing to Jeroloman adjust to the majors with more favorable match ups make more sense?

(Though I will say that I don’t recall his AA splits, and that he seems to be having some hard times against righties in AAA. > maybe MILB has his bat listed the wrong way?)

 

“Personally, I would much rather have Bautista than Joe Inglett anyways.”

Maybe because he can play SS. But I’ll take Joe and his pretty OBP at 2b over this new guy any day. Joe’s stats remind me a bit of Frank Cat – though they look a lot nicer from 2b than LF… and having Lind assume the formers spot is a nice touch. I would be very happy with Joe being the lead off hitter for us next year. (With a healthy Hill playing SS and batting further down the line up, maybe even 8th before the Catcher; Which would look a lot closer to what I expect a play off contending Major League batting order to look like.)

 

QUESTION:

Is there any chance that Hill gets put back to SS?

It seems like a better use of the organizations assets. I called Jays Talk a loong time ago, when Adams was in AAA and Hill in AA, stating my preference that Hill be left at SS, and Adams move off. Hill by all accounts was totally sufficient at SS, but when he cracked the line up, Adams was up, and so hill moved off and was successful. I thought it was short sighted decision at the time, and disagree with it more so now that we have a couple decent 2baggers, and not much at SS except for Jackson in the low minors.

Of course, two mitigating circumstance are his injury, and the possibility that JP et al felt that Hill was always destined for 2b.

I would like to believe the former to be true, however, I had the sense at the time the decisions was made that it was based more on the small MLB sample of Hills work, and not the larger  MiLB sample which was also available.

 

(Sorry about the big text!)

Flex - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#191271) #
I'd love to know what makes you so sure Inglett won't keep this up. I look at his minor league numbers and I see a pretty consistent performer. Nothing about his swing looks awkward or prone to slumps, the guy runs fast and plays hard.

Over the course of a year, both playing steadily, I think he'd have a hand in more game-winning plays and plate-appearances than Bautista.
TamRa - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#191272) #
I'll not be able to remember all I want to disagree with...

Losing Diaz is of no long term impact. He's a single's hitter with no willingness to walk. Losing a Quiroz-level backup when you have others who are better needing time is a non-issue

Dealing anything of value for Bautista is debateable on it's own merits I suppose, but JB is not a player with no value. Check his stats vs LHP. He's what Mench was supposed to be with the versitility Mench didn't have.

Which gets to the point of what we do next year when everyone is healthy - Bautista and Inglett both can play the OF competently and have complimentary splits. if your starters are Barajas/Overbay/Hill/McDonald/Rolen/Lind/Wells/Rios/DH and you have 4 bench spots, two of which are the reserve catcher and Scutero, then if Batista and Inglett are the other two then you have a reserve for every position.

If Rolen has long term issues you need a safety net and waiting until JB was non-tendered was a gamble in itself

I hope if Rolen has issues next year we have a better option than JB but at least he's considerably better than Scutero or, god forbid, Luna.

Even at worst case it was overpayment (I'd have rather gotten them to take Thigpen both for his sake and ours) it's so minor a deal as to be irrelevant.

On the Mench demotion - things like Coats don't make sense this late. either they are convinced to reward Adams, or Accardo is ready.


robertdudek - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#191273) #
For those with mlb.tv or Extra Innings, Zach Jackson is starting for the Indians against the Tigers tonight.
Gerry - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#191274) #

There are no clues in the Syracuse game tonight.  The Chiefs have only ten players on their roster, with the tenth being Chris Demons who was called up from Auburn.  All nine AAA regulars are in the lineup tonight so if one of them is being called up ot won't be until after the game tonight.

Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, Davis and Ricky Romero are all still on the roster.

Impossibles - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#191275) #

While I really like Inglett, losing him next year isn't something I'm going to lose sleep over.  He's been a good fill in, but having Scutaro and Bautista as the backup infielders is fine by me for next year (remember, Eck won't be back).

Glevin - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#191276) #
This is what happens when no big moves happen for a long time. Bautista is a mediocre backup, but at least does have a little pop. The trade is just a very minor one. It makes sense for Pittsburg to shred some salary but that's it.  I just don't see why the Jays would do it. Do you really need a backup righty platoon guy? Not a big deal though really. As for Inglett, he might be "for real", but he's only had 250 ABs and he's 30, so I'll reserve my opinion until the middle of next year. The Jays badly need to do something about their INF though...Going into 2009 with Barajas, Overbay, Hill, McDonald, Rolen will not be good.
Gerry - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#191277) #
Jeremy Accardo is another possible candidate for recall to the Jays to replace Mench.
Wildrose - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#191278) #
As for Inglett, he might be "for real", but he's only had 250 ABs and he's 30, so I'll reserve my opinion until the middle of next year.

It should be noted "Mighty Joe" could well be named " Lucky Joe" given his 0.344  babip this season.

FisherCat - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#191279) #
I happened to be browsing the Chiefs' game notes and they state that Rolen is being activated to take Mench's spot on the 25-man!  Don't know if it has been confirmed any where else.
tstaddon - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#191281) #
Rolen seems like the obvious answer here, though I wonder if we're not better off just shutting him down altogether.

Elsewhere, who becomes the third catcher on Sept. 1 now? Thigpen or Jeroloman?
Alex Obal - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#191282) #
I think a decent comp for Voodoo Joe is Chone Figgins.
Jays2010 - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#191283) #

Trying to get into the mind of JP is an arduous task. At first glance, this Diaz for Bautista swaps seems as though he may be overpaying. Personally, I feel Diaz's greatest value is as a prospect (not a major leaguer) and that our best chance to get value for him was last offseason when there was talk of Diaz or Thigpen being added into the Rios-Lincecum trade. Of course, Jeroloman and JPA were less established prospects and it would have been risky. I have to believe Barajas' option will be picked up (JP said as much on WWJP). JPA is probably going to be up around the middle of next year and the 2010 catchers will more likely than not be JPA and Jeroloman. I'm guessing they'll bring in someone like Fasano on a minor league deal to battle with Thigpen for the backup job until JPA, or even Jeroloman, is ready. At best, Diaz probably was looking like a utility player for us.

The real task is to determine who will be the better super-utility player, Diaz or Bautista. Bautista is a more "developed" utility player and I think Bautista, Inglett, Scutaro and a backup catcher will be our utility players going into 2009. John Mcdonald may be a utility player for us if we cannot land a starting SS (such as JJ hardy or Khalil Greene) and JP decides to move Hill to SS and keep Inglett at 2B with the hope that either Inglett/Campbell will be our 2B for a few years. As much as I love Johnny Mac, he has no place on a true contender because he deserves to play maybe 50 or 60 games a year as a SS and a true contender should have a 140-150 game SS and, thus, JM becomes redundant. Overall, I like the idea of Inglett, Scutaro and Bautista as our 3 non-catcher (super) utility players and consider this a win at best and a marginal loss not even worthy of mention at worst.

Wildrose - Monday, August 25 2008 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#191284) #
Given the liberal citizenship rules of the World Baseball Classic , Canada might have just found somebody to help replace Stubby Clapp

That Campbell, a second baseman with the Toronto Blue Jays' double-A affiliate in New Hampshire, is a prospect at all is the stuff of Hollywood, falling in love with the game and developing into an elite player in a country that at the time had no baseball infrastructure or pedigree whatsoever.

He learned of the sport from his father, Glenn, the son of a Canadian woman who spent some time growing up in Vancouver,

Here's the full story.

 
China fan - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#191285) #

It's pretty clear that Bautista was acquired because the team has no real depth at 3B and they know that Rolen is probably good for only 100 to 120 games a year for the next couple years.  They need a 3B with some power to replace Rolen when he needs time off for his shoulder.  Bautista is a good pick-up for those 40 games a year, and he can back up in the outfield as well.  Much as I liked Diaz last year, his injuries may be having a long-term impact on his potential ceiling, turning him from a possible major-league starter to nothing more than a likely back-up -- and the Jays have lots of depth at catcher, so he became expendable.

Aaron Hill as the 2009 shortstop is an intriguing idea.   If Hill is healthy next year, and if Inglett can maintain his production at 2B, it might be the best solution for the perennial SS dilemma.  In the past, the Jays have always seemed to dismiss the idea quite flatly, without any hint that they might consider it in the future.  But the latest Jordan Bastian story -- if it reflects official sources, as his stories often do -- might be an indication that the idea is under consideration for 2009.  Here is what Bastian wrote:

Inglett has played himself into Toronto's starting lineup and he's hoping for a similar opportunity next season. That chance very well could come, considering the Jays have discussed the possibility of shifting Hill from second base to shortstop.

Jays2010 - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#191287) #
Moving Hill to SS in 2009 could work very well. If Hill can repeat or improve upon his 2007 numbers (quite possible), he could be a top 10 offensive SS in the majors. Hill and Inglett at SS and 2B in 2009 would probably make Bautista, Scutaro/McDonald, Stairs and the backup catcher as our 4 utility players (sadly it does not appear that we are going to a 5 man bench anytime soon). In 2010, Scott Campbell would hopefully be ready. Between Hill at SS and Inglett and (hopefully) Bautista platooning at 2B we could be looking at a .750-.800 OPS from our middle infielders which would be nice. Of course, the defence would suffer, but it is an interesting idea and would allow us to allocate our financial resources to a power bat/ resigning AJ.
scottt - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#191288) #
I'd be glad to see Hill at 2B in 2009. At SS? His fielding percentage at SS in 2006 was .941  Eckstein was never that bad. Not even close.

As a replacement for Rolen, Bautista looks adequate. He's a 7th hitter, though. You don't want him at the top of the order. You want him where he can swing and not care if he strikes out. For good or bad, they're stuck with Rolen now.

The Jays needs to add a big bat, probably at DH. I'm afraid they'll keep McDonald at SS and spend a couple dollars on an aging catcher and call it done.
That's mostly what I get from the Diaz trade. I'd rather they spend top dollar on one bat and plug AAAA guys in the holes than get average guys everywhere.


FisherCat - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#191289) #

I really don't like the idea of Hill swapping back over to SS.  I also recall him having a tough time there during his short audition after Adams failed.  He also stated before last season that he wanted to stay at 2B.

Also let's not forget that this guy is going to just be getting back to baseball activities in spring 09 after his concussion symptoms, so I think we want him in a 2B comfort zone rather than out of his element at SS.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#191290) #
Fielding percentage is generally viewed as near useless in judging a players defense (outside of the media that is) as a player could have a perfect % by just not going after any balls further away than a few inches.

RZR (a measure of plays made on balls hit into their area) and OOZ (balls they reached that were outside their zone) gives a much better idea. 
Eckstein: 768 (2008) to 841 (2006) is his range since 2004 getting as many as 59 OOZ (over 1000 IP), but just 15 this year
McDonald: 717 (Cleveland 2004) to 802 (2008) to 912 (2005) is his range (his Cleveland numbers are so off the scale I thought I should list his 2nd worst) getting a peak of 51 OOZ (under 1000 IP) and 14 this year
Hill: 837 in 2005 (121 innings) and 764 in 2006 (428 innings).  Total of 10 OOZ between both seasons. 

So, Hill's range appears to be in the Eckstein range.
Jevant - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#191291) #
The Jays needs to add a big bat, probably at DH....I'd rather they spend top dollar on one bat and plug AAAA guys in the holes than get average guys everywhere.

Agreed.  Carlos Delgado, anyone?  I do realize that it would be nice if this "big bat" could do something other than play 1B as well (since we already have O-Bay), but I really think Delgado would be a perfect compliment for this lineup.  Will he be as good next year as he was this year?  Maybe not, but moving back to the Rogers Centre couldn't hurt. 

I can dream, can't I?  Bringing back the best ever home-grown slugger in Jays history (sorry McGriff, Bell) would be awesome on so many levels.  And he would fill the exact need this team has.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#191293) #
I'm pretty sure a Delgado return will need to be preceeded by a JP firing.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#191294) #
Actually, McGriff was originally a Yankee (traded for while in the low minors, one of Gillicks best steals) and Bell was a Rule V draft from Philly (another great steal by Gillick via Epy Guerrero).

Delgado is hitting 258/343/480, 117 OPS+ in the weaker league after going 258/333/448 103 the year before.  Of course, it could be 'Met syndrome' which seems to hit ex-Jays (Kent, Fernandez, Alomar for example).  Delgado had 9 years of 120+ pre-Met days - heck his first year as a Met he had a 131. 

Still, I'd only go for Delgado if A) I was sure Snider wouldn't be ready in '09 and B) he was under $5 million (maybe no higher than $3 million) so if I had to release him it wouldn't cost too much.  Signing Delgado would force Stairs being released and while Delgado > Stairs is he worth the extra cost and will he produce like he used to?  He is 43 home runs shy of 500 and it would be nice to get him here for 2 years so he could reach 500 as a Jay but with Rios/Wells/Lind/Snider/Overbay where do you put Delgado?  If I could trade Overbay I'd consider signing Delgado for '09/'10 to play first and DH, knowing that by '11 I'd be bringing up Cooper or looking for a spot on the field for one of Lind/Snider.  Overbay works right now though and, unlike Delgado, has a good rep for defense.

To me I'd go, all else being equal (which it never is) Delgado > Overbay > Stairs but Snider might be (should be) > all of them.  Overbay makes $14 million over the next 2 years ($7 per), Stairs $1 million next year, Delgado has a vesting option (depending on MVP rank) for 2009 at $16 million with a $4 million buyout, or $12 million mutual option with a $4 million buyout if he doesn't do well in MVP voting.  Odds are Delgado will be bought out thus losing out on $8 million so he'd probably cost less than that but I dbout he'd sign for under $5 million. 

So, would you sign Delgado for $5 million, release Stairs (costing $1 million) and keeping Overbay ($7 million) for 2009?  That locks up $13 million to cover DH/1B and allows Snider to stay in AAA for 2009 (outside of injuries to outfielders).  Delgado might push for the full $8 million he loses out on too so it could total $16 million.  Cheaper than Thomas would've been, but by how much would be depending on negotiations.

FYI: Thomas is now at 249/348/376 OPS+ of 99 for Oakland and is hitting 171/269/220 in August over 93 PA's (yikes!).
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#191297) #
Delgado is definitely a DH at this stage of his career. 

There will be a number of potential free agent DH types on the market for 2009, including Ramirez and Giambi.  The other possibility is to call up Snider 2-3 weeks into the season and ideally sign him long-term a la Longoria.  You can then rotate Lind, Snider, Rios and Wells through the outfield and DH slots.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#191301) #
The Dodgers have been using the Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier outfield combination a fair bit, and as expected, the team defence has suffered.  Check out Jimmy Rollins' triple down the left-field line in last night's game on mlb.com for an example. 

So far, Manny has hit, the pitching has taken a dip, and the Dodgers still look like a .500 ballclub, or thereabouts.

Lucky - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#191311) #
People, come on!!!  Diaz is a horrible catcher.  He could never make it in the show.  Yes, he can hit.  But Catch, NO, NO, NO!!  Have you ever seen him play?  I have, and it is not pretty.
Frank Markotich - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#191314) #

To add to what John said above, Dewan's + / - system had Hill as -14 plays at SS relative to average in his 428 innings in 2006. That's really bad. Now, that's a small sample relatively speaking, but even if he were to be regressed 50% toward average, and prorated to a full season, we're talking something like 16 runs a year worse than average.

Inglett rates as a bit above average at 2B while Hill is Gold Glove calibre there.

I think people are underestimating the defensive hit involved in moving Hill to SS.

 

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#191315) #
Having watched Hill's career in the minors fairly closely, I am pretty sure that he'll be an average fielding shortstop.  He's got a fine arm, decent range and excellent athleticism around the bag. 

His 2006 statistics are completely anomalous.  He had many more assists at second base per inning than at shortstop.  The adjustments for the club's shortstops due to the handedness of the pitching staff would be really tricky.  The lefties on the staff (Lilly, Chacin, and Ryan) were extreme flyballers.  John McDonald came out as an average shortstop on almost all measures in 2006, most likely for this reason. 

MatO - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#191316) #
Last night the Dodgers looked suspiciously like the Blue Jays.  13 hits including 2 doubles, 3 walks, 2 GIDP and 0 runs.  I did a double-take when I saw the boxscore.
Barry Bonnell - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#191320) #
J.P was on Jack Armstrong's show today. He said the priority during the off-season is to bulk up the offence by signing a DH and a platoon player to compliment what we already have.  He said Wells, Rios, Overbay, Hill and Lind form a solid core and Snider, Arencibia, and Cecil could be on the club as early as next year so the there is no need to "blow it up" and start over.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#191321) #
Of course there isn't... the first step in "blowing it up" would be him getting fired.
Cracka - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#191322) #

I think it's a pretty big assumption that Aaron Hill will be back to normal by next season -- just last week, Jordan Bastian wrote <i>"The Jays can only hope he will be completely recovered in time for next season."</i>.   Let's face it -- Hill sustained a very serious concussion.   Three months later, he's showing very little progress and is nowhere near returning to the game.    To me, this is a big red flag that this could be a career-altering or sadly a career-ending injury... 

History is not on Hill's side -- Corey Koskie & Mike Matheny could not recover from severe concussions...  the jury is still out on Ryan Church at this point.     I certainly hope for the best for Hill... but I think the Jays need to prepare for the worst, given the severity.  

Wildrose - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#191323) #
To add to what John said above, Dewan's + / - system had Hill as -14 plays at SS relative to average in his 428 innings in 2006.

I'm with Mike on this one. I think Hill could play short quite well if given the chance. I'd be very leery of a 450 inning sample size in terms of fielding. Basically this is the equivalent  of 200 at bats in terms of hitting, not really large enough to make a definitive evaluation, a few plays made/plays not turned ,  really skews your data at this level. 

It should be noted Hill played over 200 games at short in the minors and played short at LSU as well. The primary reason shortstops are moved to second is lack of arm strength, which is certainly not a problem for Hill.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gibbons was probably the main reason Hill was never tried at short ( and why Adam Lind was stuck at Syracuse). As was mentioned just making it back to being healthy is the first step before even speculating about his ability to play short.


Wildrose - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#191324) #
Props to Frank by the way for his post, anytime you quote Dewan's + / - system and mention  regression in a comment  you have my attention.  I just think the jury is still out on  if Hill can play short. Hopefully we'll find out.
sweat - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#191327) #

I'm not sure what other players medical history has to do with anything.  I'm not suggesting Hill will definitely get better, as he had been out for a long time, but it is a long time til next spring.

scottt - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#191330) #
J.P was on Jack Armstrong's show today. He said the priority during the off-season is to bulk up the offence by signing a DH and a platoon player to compliment what we already have.  He said Wells, Rios, Overbay, Hill and Lind form a solid core and Snider, Arencibia, and Cecil could be on the club as early as next year so the there is no need to "blow it up" and start over.

I don't expect to see Arencibia or  Cecil next year, and Snider is still a long shot. Let's just see who's up after next week.

What's a platoon player?

I don't see how you can "blow it up". You'd have to unload most of the current "core" players and who would have the money to give them and the prospects to trade for them?  Once you trade one guy, you lose all your leverage.
Flex - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#191333) #
Platoon player = guy who's good enough to hit righties or lefties, not good enough to hit both, so he plays half the time.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#191336) #
Hmm. Hunting for a DH pretty much eliminates JP looking for a right handed platoon mate for Stairs I suspect.  Mentioning Lind/Rios/Wells/Overbay and Hill as core players removes the OF/1B/2B from the platoon hunt as well.  That leaves catcher, third base, and shortstop.  A left handed match for Barajas would make some sense but if he plans on Arencibia being up then any catchers signed would be short term thus unlikely to be a solid bat (good hitting catchers tend to be expensive).  Shortstop gaining a left handed hitter to mix with McDonald would be nice, but again it is hard to find a decent hitter for SS who would accept less than full time work.

Y'know, the more I think about it the more it makes sense that he'd be talking about third base.  Rolen has been hurt a lot, and has a history of being hurt, and has an injury that seems to require him to miss anywhere from 25% to 50% of the games.  A decent hitting third baseman who hits from the left side could be out there, and given the fact our top third base prospects are in short season ball there is no worries about giving a 2 or 3 year deal.  Ideally to a guy who can play the outfield and first so we can minimize the time guys like Stairs, Inglett, and Scutaro spend there.

So, any left handed hitting third basemen out there this winter who have a decent bat but might be viewed as platoon players ala Rance Mulliniks?

Potential free agent third basemen (via Cot's Contracts)
Batting left handed
263/325/409 Hank Blalock TEX age 27 - $6.2 million team option

Batting right handed
250/317/465 Joe Crede age 30 CWS 93 lifetime OPS+
203/263/243 Morgan Ensberg age 32 NYY (113 lifetime OPS+)

Switch hitter
261/358/418 Greg Norton age 35 TB

Not available
Chipper Jones  ATL - $8-11 million option (listed as somewhere between those figures)

Might as well be retired
Corey Koskie MIL


Norton and Blalock are both very interesting.  Both have limited playing time recently and both would be fine additions at third to give Rolen time off and could be mixed into the DH/1B/LF mix if needed (Blalock hasn't played the OF).  Texas might use their option on Blalock but given his injury history I suspect they might pass.  Two injury risks sharing a position?  Could work, especially with the Scutaro/Bautista/Inglett show as backups.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#191338) #
"Could work, especially with the Scutaro/Bautista/Inglett show as backups."

Unless you are thinking of a 6 man bullpen, that's one bench player too many. You need to add the backup C as the 4th bench guy, not a 4th guy that can play 3B.

Personally, when I heard JP talk about platoons I assumed and hoped he meant a slugging RH to mix with Overbay and whoever he signs to DH, who will most likely be LH.

And for the record, I'm extremely skeptical about this Hill at SS idea. Whether or not he can handle it isn't the issue. The guy was an unbelievable 2B, so good that I think JMac at SS and Hill at 2B is far more valuable when you factor in defense than Hill at SS and Inglett at 2B.
China fan - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 03:58 AM EDT (#191339) #
 92-93, there are two problems with your lavish praise of Hill's work at 2B:  first, his hitting this year (before the injury) really sucked.  In fact, Hill's offensive woes were one of several key reasons for the poor start by the Jays this year.  Unless he reverts to the form of previous seasons  (and there's no guarantee that he will),  his hitting would look much better from SS than from 2B.   Inglett's production from 2B this season has been far better than Hill's production.  The second problem is that you want the Jays to return to the middle infield of 2007, with Hill at 2B and MacDonald at SS.   But this guarantees another sinkhole at SS next season -- the same problem that caused us all to tear out our hair in 2007.  The dismal production from SS has been a serious problem with the Jays for several years now, and there is little chance of a trade or free-agent signing to solve the problem.  So, if Hill is healthy, why not solve the problem internally?  Especially with Scott Campbell waiting in the wings for the second half of 2009 or 2010?  Yes, the defence takes a bit of a hit, but the gains on offence would more than outweigh the defensive losses, in my view, and it would help to solve the perennial problem of having such pathetic production from SS.
China fan - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:46 AM EDT (#191340) #

Hill this year:  229 plate appearances, .685 OPS

Inglett this year:  291 plate appearances, .771 OPS  (almost the same as Rios)

McDonald this year:  159 plate appearances,  .572 OPS

If these numbers are repeated next year, I'd prefer to see a middle infield of Hil and Inglett, rather than McDonald and Hill.  The gains on offence would surely outweigh the decline in defence.  Moreover, even if Inglett's hitting declines a little next year, I think it's pretty certain that Hill's hitting will improve.  (All of this assumes that Hill is healthy, of course.  If he's not healthy, it's back to the drawing board on the SS problem.....)

92-93 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#191359) #
"two problems with your lavish praise of Hill's work at 2B: first, his hitting this year (before the injury) really sucked."

How are those problems with me praising his defense at 2B?

You are seriously discounting Hill's ability to hit. I have no idea where the assumption comes from that he might not hit like he has over his career. Taking stock into 50 games in 2008 is a silly exercise. And then you say "Moreover, even if Inglett's hitting declines a little next year I think it's pretty certain that Hill's hitting will improve." So if you can recognize that it's likely Inglett drops a little offensively and that it's likely Hill hits at AT LEAST his career line, you should see where I'm coming from. The other thing to consider is that under Cito, JMac has hit .256/.298/.360 - if he can keep a line like that through the end of the season, is it that unreasonable to hope that Cito/Tenace/Murphy and crew can turn McDonald into a poor hitting, major league regular?
China fan - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#191367) #
You are discounting Hill's 229 plate appearances this year -- and his mediocre line -- as a mere aberration that we should ignore.  But then you turn around and suggest that McDonald's improved performance under Cito -- in a much smaller sample size of plate appearance -- could be significant.   Hill's sample can be ignored, but McDonald's smaller sample is significant?  This is cherry-picking of statistics to fit a naively optimistic scenario.   I'd love to see McDonald become a decent hitter, but his entire career is evidence against it.  He looked good in a small sample at the beginning of last season, too, and then slumped back to the his career norm.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#191382) #
A naively optimistic scenario would be to hope that Inglett can duplicate 2008's line (.336 BABIP) and that Hill could play an effective major league SS. I find it funny that all the sabermetrics experts in here think that Hill can be a good SS, despite all the fancy systems saying otherwise.

It's not unrealistic to assume Hill (if healthy) improves on his career line in 2009 - and all I said about McDonald was pondering how unreasonable it would be to expect JMac to duplicate his post-Cito line - I don't think that is any more unreasonable than hoping for Inglett to establish himself as a MLB regular at 31.
China fan - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#191403) #
I agree that Hill has a good chance of improving his numbers next season and could revert to his career norms if healthy.  As for Inglett, actually he has already established himself as a regular.  Cito is playing him every game.  Cito could have opted to platoon Inglett, or to put Scutaro or McDonald at 2B, but instead he chose Inglett as his daily player, and he already has almost 300 plate appearances this season (after not playing much at the beginning of the season).  So I'd say that he has established himself as a regular.  His OPS is almost as high as that of Rios.   (And I accept that Rios is obviously a better hitter than Inglett in the long run -- I'm just pointing out that Inglett has been almost as valuable as Rios this season -- and maybe less prone to absent-mindedness than Rios......)   Finally, if you look at Inglett's minor-league stats, his major league stats are not some weird aberration.   His minor-league career shows that he always had the potential to play in the majors, and now he's finally gotten that chance.  Given all of that, I'd say that Inglett has a pretty good chance to get a lot of plate appearances next season. 
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