Dodgers have one regular starter who seems very vulnerable to LHP and that's Muncy. But also Ohtani and Freeman are much more gettable with LHP than RHP, though still very good.

Dodgers have a number of guys who can hit LHP off the bench - Rojas, Call, Kim - but they don't seem to be too eager to use them so far. Or maybe they just haven't needed to.

It would seem to make more sense to play Call instead of E.Hernandez, though E.Hernandez has hit well enough that maybe they don't need Call's bat as much as they might. Call might be their Davis Schneider right now.

interesting artifact so far is that Dean is their most-used bench player, having played in 10 playoffs games so far, but hasn't actually had a plate appearance yet - solely a late inning defensive replacement for Teoscar.

Also Will Smith came back from his broken finger partway through the playoffs, but hasn't been very good since coming back. Meanwhile Rortvedt was on a bit of a tear while he was out. It'll be interesting to see how Smith and Bichette compare this series.



Here's how the two teams compare so far this postseason offensively - we could argue about which team has faced tougher pitching so far:


LF Springer 53pa, .219babip, .370iso, 150wrc+ ----- DH Ohtani 48pa, .211babip, .416iso, 143wrc+
RF Lukes 42pa, .382babip, .077iso, 125wrc+ -------- SS Betts 46pa, .324babip, .146iso, 128wrc+
1B Guerrero 51pa, .371babip, .488iso, 280wrc+ ----- 1B Freeman 45pa, .296babip, .179iso, 105wrc+
DH Bichette 0pa, .000babip, .000iso, 000wrc+ ------ C Smith 32pa, .444babip, .000iso, 89wrc+
CF Varsho 46pa, .333babip, .227iso, 121wrc+ ------- 3B Muncy 36pa, .238babip, .143iso, 115wrc+
C Kirk 49pa, .200babip, .244iso, 107wrc+ ------------ RF Teoscar 43pa, .269babip, .317iso, 142wrc+
3B Barger 40pa, .308babip, .229iso, 149wrc+ ------- 2B Edman 36pa, .381babip, .200iso, 118wrc+
2B Clement 45pa, .425babip, .190iso, 195wrc+ ------ LF Hernandez 40pa, .407babip, .111iso, 125wrc+
SS Gimenez 43pa, .258babip, .184iso, 114wrcc+ ----- CF Pages 39pa, .115babip, .029iso, -31wrc+

UT Schneider 13pa, .333babip, .100iso, 108wrc+ ---- UT Call 7pa, .750babip, .000iso, 351wrc+
OF Straw 10pa, .286babip, .000iso, 54wrc+ ---------- OF Dean 0pa,
IF Falefa 22pa, .250babip, .095iso, 54wrc+ ----------- IF Rojas 9pa, .375babip, .000iso, 143wrc+
C Heineman 0pa, .000babip, .000iso, 0wrc+ --------- C Rortvedt 10pa, .750babip, .143iso, 206wrc+

UT Santander 16pa, .300babip, .000iso, 29wrc+ ----- C Rushing 1pa, .000babip, .000iso, -100wrc+
OF Loperfido 0pa, .000babip, .000iso, -100wrc+ ---- IF Kim 0pa

There is an article on the Athletic that talks about how George Springer is nursing injuries apart from the knee. No-one will say what they are but they suggest he is battling.

This could become an issue if Bo is available to play. If Bo is the DH can Springer physically play RF for up to seven games?

It looks to me that Springer might be battling something in his hand or wrist. On several of his violent swings (in addition to his back leg collapsing) he has let one hand go off the bat in the backswing.

As SP Only:

RH Gausman 3gms, 5.7ip/gm, 52era-, 102fip-, 115xfip- ----- LH Snell 3gms, 7.0ip/gm, 20era-, 29fip-, 44xfip-
RH Yesavage 3gms, 5.0ip/gm, 103era-, 83fip-, 80xfip- ----- RH Yamamooto 3gms, 6.6ip/gm, 44era-, 80fip-, 83xfip-
RH Bieber 3gms, 4.1ip/gm, 108era-, 83fip-, 73xfip- ------- RH Ohtani 2gms, 6.0ip/gm, 54era-, 30fip-, 52xfip-
RH Scherzer 1gms, 5.2ip/gm, 78era-, 137fip-, 130xfip- ---- RH Glasnow 2gms, 5.8ip/gm, 18era-, 46fip-, 51xfip-


Their SP have been just ridiculous. Obviously we can't let them do anything close to this against us.




RP (trying to rank them looking at both usage and performance)

RH Varland 11.0ip, 1.57lvg, 80era-, 144fip-, 78xfip- ----- RH Sasaki 8.0ip, 2.15lvg, 27era-, 57fip-, 104xfip-
RH Hoffman 7.3ip, 0.77lvg, 30era-, 24fip-, 61xfip- ------- LH Vesia 4.7ip, 2.45lvg, 92era-, 79fip-, 113xfip-
RH Dominguez 6.7ip, 1.11lvg, 99era-, 149fip-, 149xfip- --- RH Treinen 3.7ip, 1.58lvg, 176era-, 49fip, 90xfip-
RH Bassitt 2.7ip, 1.15lvg, 0era-, 19fip-, 48xfip- -------- RH Glasnow 1.7ip, 1.56lvg, 0era-, 102fip-, 127xfip-
LH Fluharty 4.3ip, 0.72lvg, 153era-, 101fip-, 73xfip- ---- LH Dreyer 1.7ip, 0.70lvg, 0era-, 129fip-, 177xfip-
LH Little 3.0ip, 1.10lvg, 295era-, 242fip-, 228xfip- ----- LH Banda 2.7ip, 1.15lvg, 0era-, 48fip-, 91xfip-
LH Lauer 3.0ip, 0.46lvg, 221era-, 17fip-, 55xfip- -------- LH Kershaw 2.0ip, 0.60lvg, 430era-, 477fip-, 238xfip-
RH Fisher 3.7ip, 0.31lvg, 181era-, 100fip-, 45xfip- ------ RH Sheehan 3.3ip, 0.80lvg, 258era-, 88fip-, 145xfip-
RH Rodriguez 2.7ip, 0.49lvg, 249era-, 399fip-, 237xfip- --


RH Gausman 1.0ip, 0.59lvg, 0era-, 290fip-, 294xfip- ------
RH Nance 1.3ip, 0.09lvg, 332era-, 128fip-, 271xfip- ------
LH Bruihl 0.3ip, 0.01lvg, 1326era-, 1013fip-, 300xfip- ---


So little to go on with the Dodgers cuz their SP have pitched so many innings. I guess they can be seen as a weakness based on the regular season, but they now have 3 pretty good SP in the pen that the didn't in the regular season in Sasaki, Sheehan, and Kershaw.

For the jays, I would really really love it if we just tried using Bassitt and Lauer as if they were reliable high leverage RP. Can't be any worse than what we've had so far in those roles and might be a whole lot better.

A friend and I have had a theory for a while Springer is nursing something, given their refusal to play him in the field at all this postseason.

I've been rewatching the last few innings of last night's game again and, in addition to not understanding why Wilson went with Bastardo over Munoz in that inning, I am puzzled why Woo threw such a fat pitch to IKF on 0-2.

I'm sure he didn't mean for it to catch so much of the plate, but it seemed like an odd choice when you have the worst hitter in the lineup in a huge hole.

Yeah Katie the Bazardo decision is really tough to justify.

Munoz is a real actual high leverage dominant ace RP, the only one on the team, and he's extremely rested.....and you have the top of the order up for possibly the last time in the game in the 7th, and even if it's not the last time it's hard to envision any higher leverage situation coming up later.

Meanwhile Bazardo has been just a good pitcher, not a great one - and even worse, a homer-prone pitcher to boot (the 2nd most homer-prone RP on the team!).

I literally can't think of even one justification for the move.

But I thank Wilson for it.

OK this is pretty cool twitter thread from Zwelling here:

https://x.com/ArdenZwelling/status/1980716502295986498


It talks about how there's a similar "3rd time thru" penalty against RP as there is against SP. Which becomes a huge deal in a playoffs series.

And he points to the fact that that was the 3rd time Springer has seen Bazardo this series, and the pitch he hit for a HR was the same pitch that Bazardo got him out on the first two times.

So it not only helps explain why Schneider tried to mix up RP and not allow the mariners to see the same guy 3 times.

pretty cool i think.

Unfortunately it doesn't explain why he managed scared and used Hoffman up 6 runs, or why he chose to go to Little.

Interesting to see from uglyone's numbers that the Dodgers don't really have any hitters truly excelling this postseason.

Will be interesting to see if the Jays make any changes to their pitching staff for the World Series roster for Friday.

While the "all pitchers (but Trey) with their cleats on for Gm 7" was a cool narrative and worked out with Gausman & Bassitt pitching in relief, Schneider's RP Circle of Trust essentially shrunk to: Hoffman, Varland, Dominguez & maybe Fluharty by Games 6 & 7.

Also interesting that Seranthony didn't wear the Gm 5 meltdown scapegoat like Little did in Schneider's eyes, being called upon to pitch a clean 6th inning in Gm 7.

Braydon Fisher, never a manager favourite in the regular season despite great performance, similarly seems to have fallen out of the trusted few with more pedestrian postseason numbers.

Do the Jays still bring to Little with them on the WS roster and give him another chance? Do they drop him for Bruihl with the LHH heavy Dodgers?

Does YRod make the WS roster? He's fallen out of the trusted few as well and hasn't played well.

What about Eric Lauer & Chris Bassitt? Eric Lauer was the forgotten man in the pen in the ALCS. Schneider seemed hesitant to use Lauer for situational LHH matchups, low leverage middle relief or mop up duty. Despite the vast majority of the games in the series not being close, Schneider wouldn't use Lauer as a long reliever because a lot of the lopsided games were Toronto leads.

Same with Bassitt, though his gutsy Gm 7 8th inning likely sealed his spot on the WS roster. Bieber & Scherzer likely can't be counted on for length, so a true swingman is needed even if Bassitt & Lauer really weren't utilized as such in the ALCS.

The Jays also don't have a whole lot of depth to plug in to potentially replace the bubble guys potentially losing their place. Bruihl as a 3rd or 4th LHP like the ALDS is a possibility, but he isn't trusted to even throw low leverage relief.

Same with Tommy Nance, with good regular season performance but is lower than even Fisher presently on the pecking order.

Only if for some reason you actually want to claim, beyond all evidence, that one of the boldest managers in baseball actually manages scared for some strange reason.

If you want to continue to ignore the evidence that Hoffman is his most trusted reliever after Varland that's cool too tbh

John Schneider has now summoned Brendon Little from the bullpen 84 times this year. The man is afraid of nothing.

Imagine basing your entire perspective of this team's and manager's tactics on the belief that Hoffman is an elite proven closer, something that is obviously factually untrue.

Springer's homer is obviously the second biggest dinger in franchise history. I can't decide if Bautista or Sprague are next in line - one or the other - and Alomar after that. The man who hit the biggest was at home watching:

Carter screamed in his house, startling his wife and daughter who were pacing upstairs, with his whole neighbourhood in Leawood, Kan., hearing the jubilation....  'My heart was beating 10,000 beats a second, and I’m not even playing. It’s hard on a 65-year-old man.'

The opposite, Magpie. You abuse your best arms precisely because you're afraid to use anybody you trust slightly less, even in 4-6 run games.

Well, Hoffman clearly isn't elite but is damn good. Game 7 he pitched without his best stuff by any stretch yet K'ed all 3 he faced somehow (if they stood there and just watched they might have all walked). For this pen he is about as good as it gets.

I'd say it is Hoffman-Varland-Dominguez-Little (somehow)-Fluharty-Bassitt-Fisher-Lauer-Yariel for level of trust - first 3 far above all others. Doubt it'll change in the next round. Any LH reliever added has to be effective vs RH as well due to the 3 batter rule and how the Dodgers do their lineup (Ohtani-Freeman-Muncy never bat next to each other it seems). The 3 days off is a massive asset for the Jays as it lets everything reset. Gausman-Yesavage-Bieber-Scherzer-Gausman-Yesavage-Bieber again for the rotation. The days off will help Springer a ton (the man is held together by duct tape at this point I'd figure) but I wouldn't be shocked if Bo DH's a game or two with Springer on the bench, especially if the Jays win game 1. I'll guarantee the Jays are thinking about that with all his injuries at this stage - you want both Springer & Bo healthy out there to get 100% from them. Plus both would be far more likely to get a PA in a key situation than, say, Loperfido or Schneider at this stage.

Still hard to believe IKF is playing so much for a team going to the WS - the guy was released by the Pirates in August after all. 9 out of 11 games played so far with just a 54 wRC+ this playoff season. Weird but it has worked out.

I hope Gausman is actually ready for Game 1, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they choose to give him the extra day and go with him in Game 2. Yesterday may have been his standard throw day, but he's pitched more this season than he ever has in his career. The only real cost of switching him from Game 1 to Game 2 is an inning you might want to get from him in Game 7, and perhaps some momentum to start the series with your best.

It wouldn't make much sense to remove Springer from the lineup for a cold Bichette.

There's definitely stuff we don't know like Springer's injuries. If he can't play OF much, and Bichette can't field, don't think there's room for Bo. We don't know though. Hopefully, Springer can play some OF. Even if he can't play everyday, being able to start Bo 2/3 games would absolutely be worth adding him to roster. I'm sure we'll find out more as week goes along. I'd absolutely be starting Gausman game one. He's been great and throwing one inning and then having three days off shouldn't be a big deal for a starter. He will have had six days off between starts. As others have mentioned, Dodgers starting pitching is scary so good Jays offense needs to show up. The one that battles and fouls off pitches and makes contact.

My smile is stuck! I cannot go back to your frownland

They were probably planning on using Munoz for the 8th and 9th to close it out. So the 7th was "too early"

So many other long-term positives from this. For sure makes Toronto more appealing for free agents. Players want to win. I can't imagine how much money Rogers have made off of this run already which means the value of investing in this team is pretty apparent and hopefully means continued top-5 payrolls. Also, something like 8 million Canadians watched the game last night. That's amazing for baseball passion and creating new generations of baseball fans and players.

Jays RP IP with league rank



21. Y.Rodriguez 72.0
23. L.Varland 70.1
40. B.Little 68.1
41. J.Hoffman 68.0
78. S.Dominguez 62.2
136. M.Fluharty 52.2
146. B.Fisher 48.2
171. C.Green 43.2
214. R.Borucki 35.0
233. T.Nance 31.2
238. E.Lauer 30.2
308. Y.Garcia 21.0
324. P.Schultz 20.0
359. N.Sandlin 16.1
383. J.Bruihl 13.2

no unusual usage here.


Post-Trade Deadline:

26. T.Nance 25.0 (2.16era)
64. J.Hoffman 22.2 (3.57era)
94. L.Varland 21.2 (4.30era)
129. B.Little 20.0 (4.05era)
134. Y.Rodriguez 19.2 (4.58era)
143. S.Dominguez 19.0 (3.32era)
160. B.Fisher 18.0 (3.00era)
215. M.Fluharty 13.1 (3.38era)
227. E.Lauer 12.0 (3.00era)
345. J.Bruihl 5.1 (3.38era)
363. R.Borucki 4.1 (0.00era)


even less of an issue - the top-7 RP received extremely even IP usage with the current personnel all here, with the 8th only trailing because he was stuck in the minors for a bit.

It warms my heart to hear that Joe Carter is still cheering for the Blue Jays 30 years later..


Crazy thought: can Bo play 1st? Vlad goes to 3rd, Ernie to 2nd, IKF to the bench? How does the defensive downgrade compare to the offensive upgrade? Later on, bring in IKF and shift everyone around? Or, start with the defense-first version, and shift around if Bo hits for IKF?

I think you want top infield defense when Gausman is pitching, but for Yesavage, Bieber, and Scherzer I think you can swing the dice on Vlad at 3rd because those pitchers either have high K% or low GB% or both. But I'm not sure who you put at 1B in that world. If Bo is good enough to field, he likely is at SS. Maybe in some world Springer could try it if his knee means he can't range in the OF - but I doubt it.

On the "They were probably planning on using Munoz for the 8th and 9th to close it out. So the 7th was "too early""

I'm sure that's what it is, but it is incredibly stupid by the management.

In a mid-season game the whole wait until the end of the game for the closer (who is your best pitcher) has a little going for it in that your closer can't pitch everyday and you don't want to waste him on games that aren't going to end up close. It is still obviously way over done as the threatening part of the lineup or baserunners in the 7th or 8th inning even in the regular season likely is worth "burning" the closer to have the key contribution even if that means a less good pitcher ends the game.

But in game 7 (especially with 3 days off before the WS), every inning really should be thought of as equally important. A run saved in the 6th matters just as much as one in the 9th and there is no worry about "burning" players and saving them for later games as there are no later games if you don't win this (and even if you do win, 3 days off means there's basically no cost in using people). So the core of the order should get your top guy, especially with runners on base when this might be the last time you see the core. Heck, if I were managing Seattle I might hope my closer could go the last 8 outs and ride him for all of those (especially as he'd only thrown something like 14 pitches in the series to date), and evaluate by how he looks or reports if someone else needed to get the last 3 outs. Of course even with the Closers Jays might have come back and won, but you'd rather lose with your best played than with your best still in reserve.

The other "cost" of starting Gausman in Game Two and Yesavage in Game One is that Yesavage gets a road start, which they have avoided so far.

Provided Gausman confirms he's ready to go on Wednesday or Thursday, and I expect he will, I assume they will keep it the exact same.

I'm not going to wade into this imaginary Hoffman debate, as I think my opinions are known and last night should have settled any "debate" about that situation.

I think Arden's numbers are coming from a segment I watched on MLB Network or Fox Sports (I can't remember) with Mark DeRosa where he discussed these numbers while being very critical of Wilson going to Bazardo. DeRo was also full of praise for how Hoffman pitched, both in his mindset and execution.

On a topic that will be big in a couple of weeks, once the WS is over - what happens with the rotation in 2026? Bassitt, Bieber (no way he doesn't opt-out), Scherzer are all free agents. Leaving a rotation of Gausman-Yesavage-Berrios-Lauer and a grab bag of ? for #5 in Francis-Lucas-Bloss-Macko-Tiedemann-Stanifer and who knows who else. I expect the Jays to chase and sign one of Bieber-Valdez-Suarez-Diaz-Cease. Wouldn't be shocked if they trade Berrios at some point this winter to a club needing innings ($18.7 mil next year, then $24.7 per for 2 more if he doesn't opt out which is now a good price for a guy with his skills) if they feel they have someone else ready to step in or resign Bassitt.

Oh and I forgot about the massive fish up for trade - Tigers reported to be wanting to trade Skubal with 1 year of control left. Plus others will be available.

I would be shocked if they trade Berrios, that would be selling low on a player that was clearly compromised by injury this year. Even compromised he was still able to cobble together some league average innings which the 2026 Blue Jays sorely need.

I really don't think Bieber has helped his cause with his performance this year. It has been acceptable given that he is coming back from TJ, but is performing more like the mid-rotation starter he was in his post cy-young years rather than an Ace. At this point the brand value is higher than performance value. I no longer think Gausman's contract is a realistic ask for him, think his next contract will fall somewhere in between Bassitt and Gausman. Given some inflation, 4 years 90m sounds reasonable?

John, the reports I've read on Skubal make no mention of wanting to trade him. That's pure speculation on the part of some media.

The Tigers may extend him like the Jays did with Vlad, but that seems unlikely, because the Tigers are no longer big spenders.

They may end up trading him like the Brewers did with Burnes, but it certainly isn't what they want to do. The haul if they do trade him should be bigger than what the Brewers got for Burnes, but not much more. With Boras as his agent it will almost certainly be a 1 year rental for whichever team acquires him.

Most likely they do what the Jays have done with Bo and just try to win with him next year.

Little is not very good.

Hoffman is one of your best relievers and closest thing to traditional closer.

Shane Bieber I've been disappointed with. He's a very very good pitcher who has looked very very mediocre lately. I'm very surprised.

What this bullpen is missing is Yimi Garcia. Bullpen was always supposed to be Hoffman as closer, Garcia as the best reliever who is used in highest leverage situations. Pretending Hoffman is not that good as if there are alternatives much better available is deafening.

While indeed playing first base requires less lateral agility/quickness than any other infield position, it also necessitates a great deal of bending and contorting one’s legs and body to receive throws, many of them occasionally errant.

It’s a funky idea. Not saying either Bichette or Springer totally couldn’t do it, if they really had to… but first base really isn’t the “easy place to hide” a couple of dudes who would clearly be playing on knees that are well below 100 percent heathy. I myself tore my hamstring last summer reaching for a throw while playing first base (only there because my knees were too sore to play the outfield that day) and that was just in a crummy D-division slo-pitch game. And I’ve played a lot of first base in my life.

My feeing is we’ll see Springer in the outfield if Bo is good to hit. If Springer can run the bases, he should be able to catch a fly ball hit in his general vicinity. Even at, say, 70 percent speed, I’d still like him better out there than Santander (whom the Jays seemed perfectly fine rolling out in RF during this run despite him also not being 100 percent).

The team that's rolling IKF out everyday isn't going to go with Vlad at 3B and Bo at 1B. Springer to OF is only option but I don't know what exactly Springer is going through. (wrist and knee I think). Bo is a risk. Playing Springer in OF is a risk too. I don't know if it's a small risk or a big one though.

Berrios is almost untradable. He's going to make almost 25M in 27/28. 

Innings totals for the relievers don't tell the full story. Little led the American League in appearances - the next guy appeared 3 games fewer. Hoffman was used routinely for 4 times in 5 days, and no pitcher in the league came close to that kind of usage.

The knee thing for Springer really shouldn't linger. It's just a bruise of some kind.

Springer's knee contusion really depends on whether the bleeding went bone deep into the actual patella bone.

Bone contusions take a lot longer to heal & reabsorb.

Different mechanism of injury and location, but a bone bruise contributed to the end of Devon Travis' career. (Not suggesting that Springer's is in peril, only that some bruises are more severe than others).

yeah true - but I'm guessing from the fact the returned quickly (and said he knew on the plane ride home that he was ok) and actually performed well likely (though not 100%) means it wasn't THAT bad a knock.

I'm in the Berrios is essentially untradeable camp. His stuff was falling off before injuries and he lacks an out-pitch. He's now a No. 4/5 starter making $10M/yr more than he should. Maybe you can do a bad contract for bad contract deal and get him into the NL Central where he might see better luck...

The rotation is a bit of a mess for 2026. Gausman is good but more of a No. 2. Yesavage looks ready but I wouldn't count on him as more than a No. 4 in his first full season. Hopefully he's more of a No. 3. They seem kinda low on Lauer for whatever reason and if hes back, he's probably another No. 4 type who sometimes pitches like a 3.

There's not a lot of the FA market. Valdez is a headcase. I'd seriously look at Cease.

I've heard rumors the Jays want to try Varland as a starter but that's a mistake in my opinion. His 97-99 mph heater is a real weapon and something that's been seriously missing from the pen. He starts, he's probably more 94-96 mph and he was bad in his previous starting attempt.

As we've seen in the playoffs, pretty much every playoff team, especially in the AL, has most starters throwing 95-100 mph. The Jays starters are 91-95 mph. That's a big problem. Velo isn't everything but it covers up a lot of mistakes. But I don't think Varland is the answer there.

Hoffman was used routinely for 4 times in 5 days, and no pitcher in the league came close to that kind of usage.

That would be four times over the course of the season (periods ending April 2, May 10, July 22, September 3) if that counts as "routinely." Certainly, I'm not aware of any AL closer who did so as often. Kenley Jansen did 4 appearances in five days three times; Aroldis Chapman, Pete Fairbanks, and Carlos Estevez did it twice.

On the other hand, Hoffman never once pitched on three consecutive days, something done by Jansen, Clase and Estevez twice as well as by Munoz, Chapman, and Miller.

Thing is though that the Jays as a team also led the league in appearances, and by a lot, even though they were middle of the pack in relief innings pitched.

It wasn't just Little getting lots of appearances, it was the whole bullpen. That's just the way they manage the bullpen - lots of short appearances, no long ones.

PSA: The TORONTO BLUE JAYS will be hosting game 1 of THE WORLD SERIES this Friday!!

With Varland, you have to like the fact that he has multiple breaking balls that look like out pitches. So I can understand the desire to try it out as a starter.

It's not unlikely for the Jays to bring back Bieber, and the rotation is Bieber/Gausman/Yesavage/Berrios/Lauer. Bieber probably isn't an ace anymore, but it's decently likely he'd finish as the best of the bunch. I'd love Cease. Ranger Suarez is solid too.

Any discussion about the off season can wait (IMO, of course). This is what we play for! The Toronto Blue Jays are in the World Series.

Do we assume the rosters will be announced Friday morning? Game 1 starter likely named tomorrow?

Any discussion about the off season can wait (IMO, of course).

Not only am I not interested in the off-season now - I'm not interested in the off-season during the off-season. That's why we have hockey!

hear hear!

Pitcher Usage Tracker, starting from the start of the ALCS:

The Blue Jays are in the World Series!!!!

Who the [Redacted] cares about the offseason or 2026?

I think Glevin has it right. As creative as it is, a team that goes with IKF over Davis in four straight games values defense to a degree where that's never happening.

Also, I have been rewatching some of the celebrations and, I think it was uglyone who said this, but Lukes' interview was so heartwarming. He was speechless and like he genuinely could not believe this was happening.

the more i think about it the more sure i am that they just stick with the same rotation as last series. Gausman has had 6 days off from his last start, and his 19 pitch effort wasn't more than a normal bullpen day.

In the bullpen, it's hard not to feel better about Hoffman and Bassitt right now, hopefully to join Varland and Dominguez in every day usage. The lefty situation is much tougher. Little flopped in the clutch, and Fluharty wasn't very good either in the higher lev situations he was given. Hopefully they give Lauer a shot at the primetime lefty role, because they're really gonna need some lefty relief against this lefty-heavy dodgers team.

Who the [Redacted] cares about the offseason or 2026?

I would certainly hope the FO cares.

I'm also convinced that the rotation will be the exact same as the ALCS. I bet Bassit is used more in the bullpen this time around as well.

"I would certainly hope the FO cares."

A) Flags fly forever
B) Let them worry about that while we bask in the World Series

I was having a bit of a hard time last night coping without baseball, so I watched the new Netflix documentary "Who Killed the Montreal Expos." Highly, highly recommend. I'd like to retroactively apologize to everyone in Quebec for going for Jeffrey Loria's Marlins in the 2003 World Series, but in my defense they were playing the Yankees and it was a pick your poison decision.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81748607

Expect same rotation and it makes sense. Mariners lineup was harder to bullpen because of two impact switch-hitters. Dodgers is way more lefty-righty. Would love more usage of Lauer, Bassit, and Fisher out of pen but only Bassit seems likely. Lauer and Fisher just aren't trusted for reasons I don't understand. You don't have to go to Varland as first guy out of pen every single time! Fisher and Lauer give very different looks too. Fisher is breaking balls off of breaking balls and Lauer is a lefty.

Only Bo and the Jays know where he stands and what he can and can't do. There is definitely a rust concern as well. He hasn't played since September 6th. Jays can't wait 3 games for him to get his timing down. He is either ready or not. I'm really hoping he is ready because he adds so much to this lineup.

Flags fly forever, but after a while they are just a meaningless flag. How many Pirate fans the past many years are still relishing the 79 team? Half their fans weren't even alive.

Given Springer's condition I'm assuming that if Bo is on the roster he'll be used exclusively as a PH, which will result in the Jays also needing a PR for Bo.

To add to this, so I'm thinking the only way Bo is on the roster is if he replaces a pitcher.

Bo's declaration that he will be ready for the WS without having tested his ability to run the bases is troubling and I wonder if it's because he and his agent know what a great platform the WS can be for Bo's upcoming FA. I'm uncomfortable with either Bo or George playing in the field and the playoffs have already demonstrated how important defence can be. If Bo is on the roster, I hope it's at the expense of a BP arm and that he is used as PH

Little might not be hopeless/unplayable this series. Little's problems started after the league had seen him a few times and realized that none of his pitches actually landed in the zone with any regularity. Notwithstanding that the stats said this from day 1 of the season it took actual ABs against for the league to adapt. The Dodgers haven't seen a lot of Little so there's at least a chance that Little has a medium leverage role this series. I still think Lauer would be a good LH leverage reliever option but he's had so little work recently I'm just not sure that that is a realistic option.

I don't think there is any doubt that Little will play a role in this series. All 3 lefty relievers will - the Dodgers lefties handle lefties worse, as you'd expect.

Jays Pitching v LAD this year



Gm1 (LAD win 5-1 - LAD had their full lineup except Conforto/Freeland in for Kike/Edman which is probably an upgrade tbh)

Scherzer 6.0ip, 6h, 3bb, 5k, 1hr, 2r
Little 0.0ip, 1h, 2bb, 0k, 0hr, 3r (came in at 2-1 down against #9 thru #3)
Varland 1.0ip, 0h, 1bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in with bases loaded, gave up fielder's choice, bb, sac fly to let inherited runners score)
Fluharty 1.0ip, 0h, 0bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 5-1 down, against #8 thru #1, K'd Ohtani to end the inning.)

Max with a very solid start in this one. Little comes the 7th and blows it loading the bases, Louie lets all the inherited runs score before getting out of it. Fluharty mops up with a clean 8th down 4 but Ks Ohtani.


Gm2 (LAD win 9-1 - LAD had the same lineup except backup C Rushing in for Smith)

Bassitt 4.2ip, 6h, 2bb, 2k, 2hr, 3r
Rodriguez 0.1ip, 2h, 1bb, 1hbp, 0k, 0hr, 4r (came in at 3-0 down 2 on 2out vs #5 Teoscar, got out. started next inning #6 thru #9 no outs)
Dominguez 0.2ip, 2h, 2bb, 2k, 0hr, 2r (came in at 5-0 down 2 on 0 out vs #1-6)
Fisher 1.1ip, 0h, 0bb, 3k, 0hr, 0r (came in 9-0 down 2 on 2 out vs #7-#2)
Nance 1.0ip, 0h, 0bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in 9-1 down vs #3-5)

Bassitt with a passable start, but Yariel and Seranthony implode to give up the game. Fisher and Nance mop up.



Gm3 (TOR wins 5-4 - LAD has full lineup)

Lauer 3.0ip, 6h, 4bb, 4k, 2hr, 3r
Varland 1.2ip, 2h, 0bb, 2k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 3-1 down, vs #1-#6)
Fisher 0.1ip, 0h, 1bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 3-1 down, 1 on 2out, vs #7-8)
Dominguez 0.2ip, 1h, 1bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 3-2 down, vs #9-3)
Little 1.1ip, 0h, 0bb, 0k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 3-2 down, 2 on 2 out, vs #4-7)
Rodriguez 0.2ip, 0h, 2bb, 1k, 0hr, 1r (came in at 4-3 up, #8-#2)
Hoffman 0.2ip, 0h, 5bb, 0k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 4-3 up, 2 on 2 out, vs #3-#9)
Fluharty 0.2ip, 0h, 0bb, 1k, 0hr, 0r (came in at 5-4 up, bases loaded 1 out, vs #1-2)

Lauer gets crushed and is lucky to only allow 3. Varland stellar, Fisher and Seranthony just get it done, Little very good in a tough spot, Yariel no good. Then Hoffman has his implosion game and walks 5. Jays take the lead again anyways, and Hoffman loads the bases, but Fluharty saves the day with the bases loaded coming in and striking out Ohtani again, and retiring mookie.



As far as the righties go, Varland was very good, Fisher good in easy usage, Dominguez shaky, and Yariel and Hoffman terrible.


As far as the lefties go - they were all over Lauer, Little was good and bad in fairly high lev, Fluharty was very good in both low and very high lev.

I find it off-putting that multiple posters here continually gatekeep & shutdown discussion about future roster machinations simply because they aren't personally interested in doing so presently or would prefer that commenting remain limited to current postseason happenings (with not a whole lot to discuss other than WS roster decisions tbh during the downtime).

If you don't personally want to discuss next year & the future, that's fine. But don't chide other posters for doing so. Or just don't comment about it at all.

Or as an alternate you could drown out the future roster opining by leading robust conversations about current postseason happenings of your own.

But IMHO, there's way too much "I don't like the off-topic talk" without any positive contributions of their own.

I have to agree, if I'm not interested in a topic then I just ignore the post.

I may not care about the off-season, but I'm sure many folks around here have thoughts and are interested in the subject. Many more than would care to hear one of my stories about Ty Cobb. So knock yourselves out!

I do have a Ty Cobb story, by the way...

you're gonna have so, so much time to talk about the offseason in a couple weeks tho. This might be the only chance you have to talk about am active jays world series for the rest of your life.




Anyways, Bassitt Pitch Velos:


Season: 91.6si (41.7%), 88.5ct (16.9%), 71.3cu (16.3%), 91.5fb (9.3%), 76.3sl (8.6%), 83.6sf (4.6%), 84.5ch (2.7%),

Gm1 ALCS (24): 92.9si (10), 89.9ct (2), 71.7cu (4), 92.8fb (6), 74.0sl (2)
Gm7 ALCS (10): 93.7si (6), 91.2ct (1), 71.8cu (2), n/afb (0), 73.5sl (1)

The irony of you (pooks137) gatekeeping / chiding other posters.

I didn't say that folks can't post about the offseason, I just gave my opinion that these discussions could wait. Why worry about the future when you're in the World Series? Off seasons happen every year, we haven't been in the WS in 32 years. I'm not great at living in the present, but this seems like as good as an opportunity of all to do so. IMHO, of course.

I also then moved on to try to lead robust conversations about current postseason happenings.

We have multiple days to kill - if we want to talk about baseball, let's talk about baseball, whether it's present or future. ;)

I get the comments about Little not being seen as much by NL teams BUT LA also has arguably the best, most exhaustive advanced scouting in the majors - expressed by Kiermaier himself.

They absolutely know everything about Little's approach and quite likely will be the most prepared team Yesavage has ever faced. Plus Little faced them twice in August and got absolutely destroyed in the one game (2 walks, 3 runs, 0 outs).

Lauer struggled in one start and Fluharty was good in two appearances. Bruihl played for the Dodgers so they'd have internal reports.

"Dodgers is way more lefty-righty."

Ohtani is worse vs LHP, but Betts and Smith who follow him in the lineup have neutral splits. Freeman is also worse vs LHP, but is followed up by guys like Teoscar, who crush lefties.

They're a deep lineup and constructed in a way where it's hard to get a split advantage unfortunately.

Wow, didn't mean to start a war over off-season stuff, more just tossing topics out for a few days without baseball. Only so much to say about rosters, who is healthy, who isn't, etc.

As to that - rotation looks good with Gausman-Yesavage-Bieber-Scherzer - a mix of vets with a super-hotshot kid. Snell-Yamamoto-Glasnow-Ohtani is the Dodgers likely rotation. These 4 have microscopic ERA's in the post season so far - Snell at 0.86, Yamamoto at 1.83, Glasnow at 0.77, Ohtani 2.25 (slacker). The xFIP ranges from 1.70 to 2.12 then a 3.40 for Yamamoto. The Jays only have Gausman in contention with that group with a 2.12 ERA, 3.18 for Scherzer, Yesavage hurt by the pen letting in runs on him pushing it to 4.20, Bieber at 4.38. xFIP has Gausman at 4.78 (yikes) low 3's for Bieber & Yesavage, 5.39 for Scherzer.

For the pen we have sub 2's in Bassitt, Gausman, and Hoffman. They have that for Glasnow, Banda, Dreyer, and Sasaki. 3 of theirs have been in 7 games - Sasaki, Vesia (3.86), Treinen (7.36). Henriquez (0 outs), Sheehan and Kershaw both really sucked when called on. Just 8 real relievers used (ignoring Glasnow) as Sasaki has become their ace in the pen now.

Seems the Dodgers having 7 guys with 10+ starts was a good idea for the playoffs - as now they have locked in a really good closer out of it (plus 2 who have sucked in the pen). IMO the Jays should've made more use of their starters in the pen (Bassitt namely) but so far so good.

Pitching wise the Dodgers have a massive advantage despite only 3 guys reaching 100 IP this season, just 1 cracking 120 in Yamamoto. They clearly built up a team around the playoffs - massive pitching depth, then hoping they'd be healthy when October hit.

yeah it's the top of the order where you want to use your lefties - Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy are all either worse or even vLHP.

Obivously tho they're all still very good vLHP (except Muncy) so you're still gonna get hit there. But it's probably the right thing to do even if the LHP numbers end up looking bad on paper. A situation where bad looking outings may actually be good.


The bottom of the order all hits lefties better and are either average or very poor vRHP - Teo, Pages, Kike, Edman. so that should definitely be righty alley.

Bo's declaration that he will be ready for the WS without having tested his ability to run the bases is troubling and I wonder if it's because he and his agent know what a great platform the WS can be for Bo's upcoming FA.

I think you're reading too much into it - Bo's an elite athlete and and a competitor, of course he's going to say he's ready to play in the World Series. It's up to the team to evaluate what he can and cannot do, and whether that merits a roster spot.

And there's probably some danger in using it as a platform for free agency - he could aggravate his injury, or just hobble around the field & look like a guy who hasn't been able to play baseball for a month and a half.

we do seem to have some righties that are reverse split guys.


Bieber vRH .396woba, 6.57fip --- vLH .192woba, 2.73fip
Yesavage vRH .352woba, 2.94fip --- vLH .216woba, 2.02fip
Gausman vRH .289woba, 3.51fip, --- vLH .255woba, 3.53fip (well, not really, but even at wort)

Fisher vRH .261woba, 3.69fip --- vLH .232woba, 2.10fip


Varland doesn't seem to have any splits either.

Hoffman is a little worse but nothing crazy.

Seranthony and Yariel are terrible vLHP. Bottom of the order usage only for them.

The LAD offense hasn't been as nice as the pitching but still damn good. 10 guys with a 100+ wRC+, 2 over 200 (Call & Rortvedt over 17 PA total between them), rest are 105-143 of that top 10. But they keep playing Andy Pages despite a -31 wRC+ in the playoffs (113 regular season) who plays in CF mostly (plus a touch of RF). Their catcher, Will Smith, is an 89 wRC+ guy so far. Justin Dean has been in 10 games but has 0 PA so he is a near pure pinch runner for them (can play CF too) - 27-9 in the minors stealing. Will we see him? Oh yeah - if it is late and a slow poke gets on we will.

Jays have 4 guys hitting better than any regular on the Dodgers - Vlad 280, Clement 195, Springer 150, Barger 149. 9 guys at 107 or better. With Straw, IKF, and Santander all getting significant playing time with sub 60 wRC+. I only expect IKF to get a lot of playing time in the WS though. Straw might get some. Schneider at 108 is the forgotten man, while Loperfido was 0 for 1.

So on offense the Jays have a slight advantage. But one also has to consider who did they each play. The Jays played the top WC and the top other division winner (#2/3 in wins in the league), Dodgers played Milwaukee (#1 in MLB), Phillies (#2) and the Reds (83 wins). They went 9-1 vs that crew. Jays went 7-4 vs their crew. The Dodgers must feel like they've been playing on easy mode so far. Hopefully the Jays can shift that fast.

If Bo can only PH, I don't add him to the roster. Jays just don't pinch hit much. The difference between pinch hitting for Lukes or Barger with Schneider VS Bo who hasn't hit in a month and who you the ln need to pinch run for immediately if he gets on isn't big enough IMO.

They don't PH much because they don't believe Schneider can handle the heat, and that wouldn't apply to Bichette. Assuming he can run like Giancarlo, adding him as a PH for one of the relievers is a no-brainer decision for me.

If he can PH he can DH, no?

Yes, but Springer might not be able to play the OF.

I'd be surprised if Bichette isn't on the roster.

Not sure that it makes sense to carry Bo if he's solely a pinch-hitter for the entire series, but even if there's a chance he's able to be back in the field towards the end of the series, I think you need to roster him. The potential improvement over IKF, even for a couple games, is a lot more valuable than having a Lauer or Fisher being confined to mop-up duty in the pen.

I have no idea if Bo will be on the roster. Like a poster said earlier, it makes a lot of sense that Bo would say he's ready to go, but until he runs the bases I don't think he really has any idea if that's true.

If he is 'good to go', then the Jays have to make a call whether he has a fit on the roster. Most of us seem to assume that Springer is going to be the f/t DH. I could see Bo being a PH as it seems like J Schneider is only going to use D Schneider as a PH vs. leftys whereas Bo could PH against anyone. With IKF/Giminez in the lineup, Bo makes sense (IMO).

What I find fascinating are the contrasts between the 2 teams relative to preseason expectations.

The Dodgers were WS favourites from the get-go. Didn't change even when they went through a few in season struggles.

The Jays on the other hand were huge underdogs. Among the gloomiest was the betting public, with the Jays at 78.5 wins, and 20th in odds the win the WS.(Fun fact- of the 7 teams with the best WS odds, 4 didn't even make the playoffs).

Media wasn't much higher. The Ringer had the Jays 22nd in their preseason power rankings. Of the 6 "experts" at CBS Sports, 2 had the Jays 4th in the AL East, the other 4 dead last. the 4 "experts" at ESPN ranked the Jays 20th, although Dolittle's projections were somewhat higher at 83 wins. B/R was the most bullish I could find predicting 87 wins.

The Jays claimed at the end of the season they'd activate Bo only if/when he could play in the field. Now that may or may not be correct and may or may not apply to the world series versus the earlier rounds, but that is what they claimed.

I think if he's doing back to back hitting days he's likely to be back for World Series.

I don't think he has to worry about much for FA platform - other than re-injury - as even if he plays and is terrible that can be written off as small sample size + tail end of injury recovery while he was very, very good this year behind the plate (and even better in the clutch/RISP situations).

OMG - my daughter just bought us tickets for game 2 at the dome. Section 512. Insane.

The truth is, Hypo, that the media can eb....lazy. Especially when it comes to unimportant teams like the Jays.

The jays were terrible last year, they looked like they were on the verge of selling their two franchise players at the deadline, with the FO liking getting fired. The free agent market saw Name FA after Name FA pass the Jays by, with the jays having to overpay for guys that had no other options left.

The vibes were exquisitely terrible.


The ONLY and i mean ONLY thing to hold on to predict the jays might be good this year were a bunch of analytic nerd programs stubbornly outputting that this was actually a legit good team.....and what writer would possibly want to stick their necks out based on that?

John Northey - Congratulations!, great daughter - I'm envious.

That's a good piece Magpie. What is weird is that almost every significant offseason move that the FO made (other than Straw) turned out, objectively, somewhere between a meh and a disaster during the regular season. In other words, it was really the core of the 2024 team that produced in 2025.

The other thing is that in 2024 it felt like almost every tactical decision that Schneider made (defensible (analytically) or not) seemed to blow up in his face and this year every tactical decision that Schneider seems to make (again, defensible or not) works like magic. Schneider is on a managerial heater. I don't think Schneider "got dumb" last year and didn't "get smart" this year. Its just the Baseball Gods messing around.

This bettor went 8/9 on MLB team O/U win totals based on those analytic nerd programs. It's the 2nd year in a row one could make good money betting the lines that were more than 3 games away from ZIPS' projections. Damn Rockies had to be historically bad.

Historically Awful VS mediocre!! Would it take the 1st &2nd month of the season to make an evaluation of the pen?

The 2024 pen had Chad Green carry the load in the 2nd half I believe. In 2025 Green & Swanson were released/DFA'd which is a big contrast.

Congratulations, John!!

I don't get the sense he's in serious consideration for the roster (I don't think he's even with the team), but Ryan Borucki has never allowed a hit to a Los Angeles Dodger in his career. (Just don't look at detail at who he faced.)

LA does have the best advanced scouting in baseball from everything I've read, but that's not particularly relevant for roster construction IMO since that will apply to whomever the Jays end up putting on their roster.

Also, Dan and Buck referenced during the ALCS that there were a number of advanced scouts from the Dodgers present

What is weird is that almost every significant offseason move that the FO made (other than Straw) turned out, objectively, somewhere between a meh and a disaster during the regular season.

Yes, it's the great irony of the 2025 Jays. It's like rain on your wedding day! And yet, I think it was helpful that the effort was made. If only because we know what can happen when the effort isn't made. We remember how the 2014 team thought they were a contender, and promptly lost 16 of 22 when nothing happened at the deadline to bolster the team. We remember how the 1995 team went completely into the toilet after they traded their best pitcher to a division rival. It helps if you can convince the players that you think they're worth the candle and that you've got their back.

Other than Straw and the hiring of David Popkins and Lou Ianotti...

And I'm convinced that Ianotti will be a hitting coach within a couple of years.

It's pretty fantastic.

Gimenez $19.4aav, 1.0war
Scherzer $15.5, 0.3awar
Santander $14.3, -0.9war
Hoffman $11.0, -0.2awar
Green $10.5, -0.8awar
Straw $7.8, 1.8war
Garcia $7.5, 0.1awar
Swanson $3.0, -0.4awar


That's $90m for replacement value. The only reason it's slightly positive is thanks to Myles Straw.

$90m is more than 5 teams entire payrolls this year.


That's the beauty of a big payroll, it lets you make big mistakes without killing yourself.

And then you even get the bonus of having their talent still there if you do make the playoffs, where that talent (Gimenez, Hoffman, Scherzer) can suddenly be valuable again, even after terrible seasons.

Hoffman had some brutal stretches, but the Jays probably don't win the division without him.

Gimenez and Santander on the other hand...will hopefully be fine next year, and Gimenez has already justified the trade in the playoffs.

One more good start from Scherzer and that signing will look pretty good too!

Technically, wasn't Green's contract from the prior offseason, when they picked up the two-year option of his three-part option deal?

And even Chad Green!

I think the fulcrum of the season was the four game sweep of the Yankees at the end of June. While this team may have believed they had a chance to do something special, after those four games they knew. And in the first game, Green came on in the eighth inning with a 5-4 lead and the tying run on second base. He got out of the inning, and passed the save on to Hoffman. He pitched a scoreless inning in the next day's blowout. And in the finale, he relieved a shaky Braydon Fisher in the seventh with a 6-4 lead and runners on second and third, and got two outs to get out of the jam with just one run scoring on Volpe's groundout.

And three weeks later he went so bad they had to cut him loose. But I haven't forgotten!

Last winter's transactions (via BR)

• Nov 24 - released Jordan Romano & Dillon Tate
• Dec 3 - signed Michael Stefanic (FA)
• Dec 10 - Traded Nick Mitchell (minors) and Spencer Horwitz (118 OPS+ this year 1.6 bWAR) for Andrés Giménez & Nick Sandlin
• Dec 13 - Signed Yimi García (FA)
• Dec 20 - Signed Eric Lauer, Ali Sánchez, and Josh Walker as FA's
• Jan 10 - Signed Jeff Hoffman (FA)
• Jan 17 - Traded PTBNL for Myles Straw & cash & Int cap space
• Jan 20 - Signed Anthony Santander (FA)
• Jan 22 - Signed Christian Bethancourt & Richard Lovelady (FA)
• Feb 4 - Signed Max Scherzer (FA)
• Feb 17 - Signed Jacob Barnes (FA)
• Feb 21 - Signed Ryan Yarbrough (FA) - released on March 23
• Mar 12 - Signed Dillon Tate (FA)
• tons of minor FA sign/release etc.
• Jul 29 - Traded Juaron Watts-Brown for Seranthony Domínguez and cash.
• Jul 31 - Traded away Will Wagner, Khal Stephens, Kendry Rojas, and Alan Roden for Shane Bieber, Ty France, and Louis Varland plus prospect Brandon Valenzuela.
• Aug 3 - Released Chad Green
• Aug 25 - Signed Ryan Borucki
• Aug 31 - Selected Isiah Kiner-Falefa off waivers

Lots of other minor stuff but I tried to cut out most that didn't involve guys who did something in the majors. Interesting to dig through some of this stuff. Romano was controversal at the time but his 8.23 ERA and -1.7 bWAR suggests it was the right move. IKF was a surprising late move that really seems to have worked out given his playing time in the ALCS and the Jays going to the WS now. Khal Stephens was a high price for Bieber but, again, worth it - does anyone really think Bassitt could've done enough in game 7 to cover Bieber and his own innings? Or that Berrios would've done enough? Berrios might have but I wouldn't have wanted to bet the season on it.

IMO the only big flop was Santander, and that might work out in 26 and beyond. Who can tell right now?

Gausman said that the moment for him was when Cleveland hit Guerrero and they plunked back Ramirez, won the game and went on a good stretch.

In addition to Straw, Lauer and the signing of Popkins and Ianetti being moves from this offseason that worked, the other move that definitely worked was signing Guerrero to a long-term deal.

It seemed like a meaningful overpay from an on-field perspective, albeit one that you could argue was worth it due to having a superstar willing to sign long-term in Toronto and be, seemingly, a career Blue Jay (or as close as you can realistically get in the modern game). However, there was a fair amount of criticism at the number they agreed to.

Not only would Vlad have significantly improved his likely contract in free agency through his performance this season and playoffs, but I also firmly believe this postseason run doesn't happen in the same way if Vlad's free agency is hanging over the club; a constant media talking point and something that Vlad and the club are contending with in the background.

You can point to Soto and last year's Yankees as an example of a team that made the World Series with a superstar's free agency hanging over them, and there's no way to prove or disprove this theory, but I just don't think that this team ends up playing like this if Vlad is hitting free agency a week after the World Series and the spectre is hanging over the team.

Another on-the-margins move that paid big dividends for your American League Champion Blue Jays: Tyler Heineman. He joined the team (for the 3rd time) as a waiver claim in September 2024. 1.9 bWAR / 2.1 fWAR in 61 games.

Gausman said that the moment for him was when Cleveland hit Guerrero and they plunked back Ramirez, won the game and went on a good stretch.

It was Gausman himself who hit Ramirez, which may be why it stands out in his memory, but it did begin a stretch where the team won 12 of 13, including that sweep of the Yankees I mentioned. Guerrero had been hit the day before as well, but on this occasion I think Bibee was just wild - he'd hit Heineman earlier in the inning, and would throw a wild pitch to Barger after hitting Guerrero. Not that it mattered to Gausman.

Congratulations John on getting to go to the game. The prices on those resale tickets are insane.

Mike Petriello posted an interesting article over at MLB.com about the strength-vs-strength matchup in the series. While you can read it here, I did find this interesting: the Jays' increasing damage on contact seems to coincide with a massive uptick in bat speed generated.... .

Resale tickets are going for 2X face. In the ALCS, they went for 5X.

ALCS Games 6 & 7 were at a substantial premium compared to 1 & 2. (Which makes some sense.)

General Admission is interesting, as they are not easily sold on the secondary market. (I think they are locked for resale by TicketMaster & SeatGeek.) Seems strangers on reddit is the primary secondary market.

General Admission:
- ALCS: $114
- WS: $345


I thought ALCS GA was somewhat of a bargain (relatively speaking.) Whereby, WS GA came in higher than I anticipated.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
Bo Bichette took ground balls at second base late Wednesday afternoon, testing his left knee at a position he has never before played at the MLB level

Link to full article: https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/jays-bichette-takes-ground-balls-at-second-base-ahead-of-world-series/

Nice, a prelude to Bo Bichette, 2026 Toronto Blue Jays' starting 2B.

The days off before the WS has made by days peaceful. I am loving it.

If Bichette can handle second base defensively in the World Series, that would be a big deal.  

Hard to find good enough samples but here's what B/R says their rdrs/yr for the last two years have been at each position:


(I've added the innings played in brackets but the per year drs number listed here they've prorated for 1200 innings.)


SS Clement (484.1): +15
SS Falefa (1147.0): +4
SS Gimenez (119.0): +0
SS Bichette (1823.1): -10
2B Clement (444.1): +27
2B Falefa (402.1): +24
2B Gimenez (2040.2): +17

3B Clement (1264.0): +19
3B Falefa (610.1): +16
3B Barger (869.1): +4

RF Lukes (504.1): +22
RF Barger (587.0): -4
RF Springer (1313.1): -7
RF Straw (45.0): -27

LF Straw (121.0): +40
LF Lukes (338.0): +32
LF Springer (85.0): -14
LF Barger (55.0): -22


Obviously the smaller samples are really really hard to glean much from.

BUT, there's probably enough there to say that:

- Lukes is our best RF by a good bit. Barger only plays in RF because his one weapon in the OF is his gun of an arm which seems to be much less useful in LF, whereas Lukes is great in both spots so he can switch. But if Springer fields, then he's most likely coming in at LF, with Lukes in RF, where he's excellent. So any defensive impact of Springer fielding is likely limited to LF.

- Barger is a downgrade from clement/falefa at 3B, but not at all a liability out there.

- Clement might be the one who should be playing SS instead of Gimenez. I imagine it's his superior arm which is giving him better numbers at SS than Gimenez.

- Falefa is much better defensively then maybe i've been crediting him for, if drs is right. Good enough that it makes me think that going to a Gimenez/Falefa platoon makes sense. And in general it makes me feel better with him in the lineup in general, especially vs a LHP when guys like Barger and Gimenez become just as bad as him at the plate.


So to try to summarize the impact of Springer vs Bichette at DH:

Springer in LF: 1. RF upgraded from mediocre to very good; 2. 2B upgraded from mediocre (?) to very good; 3. LF downgraded from very good to bad; 4. 3B downgraded from very good to mediocre

Bichette at 2B: 1. 3B upgraded from mediocre to very good; 2. RF downgraded from very good to mediocre; 3. LF upgraded from bad to very good; 4. 2B downgraded from very good to mediocre (?)


I don't know if it makes a huge difference either way. But in general i think it's probably better to put your biggest defensive question mark in LF rather than in the middle infield. And Bichette isn't just a question of health, it's also that he's never really played 2B before. And 2B is a position where familiarity seems more important than most positions.

The other question is whether you want to even keep Barger in the lineup vs Snell. I know he's hot, but he's been hot against RHP, not LHP. I think he probably sits game 1 and that makes sense imo.

dangit i mushed the SS and 2B slots together.

Bo is showing us his willingness to play 2B! Incoming re-signing! :P

DH Springer
LF Lukes
1B Vladdy
2B Bichette
RF Barger
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Clement
SS Gimenez

Looks very solid. Whether Bichette can handle 2B adequately is the question, both due to his injury and his actual defensive ability.

"Bo is showing us his willingness to play 2B! Incoming re-signing! :P"

I've never thought that he would mind the move to 2B tbh. But also good that the jays never asked him to before hitting free agency.

I'm pretty sure he re-signs as our 2B. And for a not-SS price.

I too am going to game one. I had two of my sons, a daughter in law and myself in the Ticketmaster waiting room. One of my sons got a low number and was able to buy. 500 level tickets were over $500, very expensive. But first time in 32 years, I won't be here in another 32.

I can't see them asking Bo to learn a new position in the World Series. A few innings off the bench, sure, but I'd be shocked to see him starting at 2B. I think he's taking grounders there purely for roster flexibility.

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
10m
Bo Bichette will hit against live pitching today, per Blue Jays manager John Schneider. He's been taking groundballs, running, and hitting over the last few days.

Schneider says there's "still a few more boxes to check" and "we're kind of coming right down to the wire with it."





Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
8m
Schneider says starting Bichette at DH, shortstop, or second base are all on the table if he's ready for the World Series

He added Bichette "looked more than comfortable" when he played second in the minors. "If you can play shortstop, you can play anywhere."




Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
3m
Blue Jays are discussing whether an active Bichette means they need to carry an extra position player as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. That would mean rostering only 12 pitchers.

How Bichette responds to increased activity today could impact the decision.

Yesavage Game 1 starter

As I suggested, the Jays have backed off Gausman and given the Game 1 start to Yesavage.

they've changed up the rotation.




Blake Murphy
@BlakeMurphyODC
·
8m
Trey Yesavage starts Game 1 of the World Series for the Blue Jays.

Blake Snell for the Dodgers.

Game 2 starter TBA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Chris Bassitt "most likely" staying in the bullpen.



Blake Murphy
@BlakeMurphyODC
·
7m
Barring changes mid-series, the Game 1 starter lines up to start Game 5 (road) and potentially be available out of the bullpen in Game 7.

Game 2 starter gets two home starts (2/6) and probably not a pen appearance.

Kevin Gausman would be on normal rest for Game 2.


Blake Murphy
@BlakeMurphyODC
·
6m
They're still working through if Gausman will be Game 2 or Game 3.

Team still deciding between 13/13 or 14 players and 12 pitchers. Bichette status possibly a factor.

i could be wrong but it kinda sounds like Schneider is more positive about Bo playing the field than Springer.

Apparently (per Schneider) George is ready to play the OF if need be

If Bo could play 2B, it would be huge! Just straight swap of IKF out of lineup. Gimenez looks very good at SS to my eye. His only issue, especially early l, was making 2B throws from SS. Gausman is better pitcher right now but clearly Jays want him to get more rest. Starting game 2 would be fine as well.

Makes sense to me as an insurance plan (Yesavage starting Game One) if the series goes 7. Gausman didn’t quite look himself out of the pen while Yesavage has been doing it all year at various levels of the minors.

Saw a video of Bo running bases. Not looking great still. Seemed to move pretty gingerly. Better than last week but not where he need to be. Maybe you use him as pinch hitter early in series and hope he continues to improve to where you can use him in field and on bases a little later in series.

dangit.

that aWAR/32 column for the dodgers' SP should be FIP-.

also, the war/650 stat is for regular season only, as there's no postseason war.

Cool, uglyone. Any conclusions, other than that the Dodgers are a much better team?

Jays in 5.

Weird that you'd ask given you complain about my conclusions even more than you complain about my stats-only posts.

I don't complain about anything. I merely point out when your conclusions (about Jeff Hoffman) are clearly wrong, and ask for the conclusions when they aren't provided.

I do think if Bichette is given the thumbs up to play (which I’d lean is more likely than not) I agree that seeing him in the field for every game is not going to happen. You can rotate the DH between him and Springer, or give Bichette a PH role of its a starter he has little success against (Snell for instance. Haven’t checked but there should be some history there from Snell’s days as a Ray in the Tampa Bay).

I also don’t really wanna see him start or even play shortstop at all if possible. Nice if he can do it, fill in for a few innings if they say, PH Gimenez against Vesia or something… but Gimenez to my eye has been so crucial to the Jays preventing a lot of runs that I think the difference between that and a wobbly, rusty Bo could be substantial. Funny enough, with Yesavage versus (presumably) Snell in Game 1 that’s kind of the game you could do it though…

Congrats Gerry - my daughter had to pay resell prices (over $1500 each) but felt she didn't want to risk never seeing one with me. My Dad passed away this year and we felt the prices were too high in '92/93 to go but never had another shot. He was a Leafs fan and we never got to see a Leafs Stanley Cup game (he and my mom met in '66).

You never know when the last time will be - so make the most of everything if you can. If you can't afford these tickets, then look at going to the street parties or hold a party at home around it. Maybe the Jays make this an annual thing, but odds are low of that. Far higher odds of waiting 30-40-50+ years for another shot - remember, the Cubs waited from 1945 to 2016 to get a chance (1908 was their last title pre 2016).

sounds like really bad news for Vesia, and probably missing the world series. not exactly the reliever i was worried about but this sounds really sad unortunately.

Some very (potentially) sad news. The Vesias were expecting, and Kayla was close to term. It sounds like the baseball community has started making donations to both cities' Children's hospitals.

I must not have refreshed my browser - didn't see uglyone make the same post.

Yeah, a World Series opportunity is very rare. I'm leaning to no, but somewhat tempted to get a ticket for one of the LA games (I'm in Northern California so ~6 hour drive). Looks like the very worst tickets are about $800US with non-terrible but not great tickets closer to $1500US.

Looking at those starting line ups from uglyone if you go by WAR (regular+postseason) from best to worst for each team you have:

1. Ohtani 6.7 War 170 RC+ / Kirk 6.0 War 115 RC+ (adv LA 0.7 WAR 55 RC+)
2. Smith 6.1 War 149 RC+ / Springer 5.8 War 165 RC+ (adv LA 0.3 WAR -16 RC+)
3. Muncy 4.9 War 135 RC+ / Varsho 5.3 War 123 RC+ (adv Jays 0.4 WAR -12 RC+)
4. Pages 4.2 War 104 RC+ / Bichette 3.9 War 134 RC+ (adv LA 0.3 WAR -30 RC+)
5. Freeman 3.9 War 137 RC+ / Guerrero 3.7 War 147 RC+ (adv LA 0.2 WAR -10 RC+)
6. Betts 3.3 War 106 RC+ / Clement 3.5 War 105 RC+ (adv Jays 0.2 WAR -1 RC+)
7. Edman 2.1 War 84 RC+ / Barger 2.9 War 110 RC+ (adv Jays 0.8 WAR 26 RC+)
8. Teoscar 0.7 War 105 RC+ / Lukes 2.7 War 105 RC+ (adv Jays 2.0 WAR 0 RC+)
9. Hernandez -0.5 War 77 RC+ / Gimenez 1.8 War 76 RC+ (adv Jays 2.3 WAR -1 RC+)

If you sum those you get a 4.2 War advantage for the Jays (thanks to the bottom 3 in the order) and a RC+ difference of 13 for the Jays (so a lot of the War is no doubt the Jays better defense as at pure hitting it is a very near tie only ever so slightly Jays favored).

Of course from Uglyone's numbers if LA played Rojas and Call instead of Edman and Hernandez they'd be significantly stronger in the War/RC+ - but so would we if we played Schneider instead of Gimenez (and maybe Straw instead of Lukes and/or Heineman's great SS this year).

On the pitching side they are much better than us though as all 4 of their starters are better than any of our starters and their pen is also better than our pen.

We have home field advantage, but even if Bo is back and heathy LA is still the stronger team, being the super team that on paper is the best team in baseball (I think the Jays are about equal to LA if you remove Ohtani from LA). So I would put the Jays at about 35% to win the series (which is better than what they were at to win ALCS when they lost the first 2 to Seattle). Looks like Fanduel has only very slightly less than that at more like 1/3 as they have LA -230 / Toronto +190 which is somewhere between an implied odds of LA 69.6969% to win (the +230) to Toronto 34.48% to win (the -190) - with the gap between the two lines the vig, hence a "fair" roughly 1/3.

But despite my brain saying we are the underdog, my heart really likes this team - both for the way they play and for their ability to keep coming back, so I'm cautiously optimistic we will win despite the numbers above.

Blue Jays, Raptors, Leafs all playing today - insane!

I’m thinking about the underdog status like this: In any given 7-game sample of these Blue Jays vs these Dodgers, the most likely outcome is 4-3 Dodgers. The difference between the teams isn’t bigger than that. So what the Jays have to do is steal 1 win out of the 4 games they aren’t expected to get.

They can do that! GO JAYS!

One caveat Michael - there's no actual war for playoffs available so the war there is just regular season war pace. (All the other numbers do include playoffs tho).

But that's good news in this case because the jays would have an even bigger edge on position player war given their postseason performances so far.


But in general i think the conclusions are inescapable - comparable offensive teams, jays with a clear advantage defensively, but dodgers with a more important advantsge in SP. Dodgers are the favorites, the only question is how much a favorite they are.

The key to this series imo is the Jays being able to make the Dodgers' SP look human. They don't have to crush them but they do have to be able to put them under much more pressure than the brewers and phillies did. And i think both the quality and style of the jays' offense gives them a goos chance to do that.

Something being overlooked a bit imo is that despite the dodgers only losing once in the nlds and nlcs, they and the jays actually dominated those two rounds by a very similar amount of runs - LAD had a +2.25rdiff/gm while the jays were at +2.00. The dodgers were actually outscored by the phillies and scraped all their wins by 1, 1, and 2 run margins. One clutch hit away from losing each time. Tough to assess quality of competition because the brewers were so much better this year than their talent on paper, but i'd say the competition was pretty even. On paper the yanks and mariners were elite teams and both finished the season red hot for multiple months.

To beat the dodgers we just have to be as good as the phillies were against them, as that was a 50/50 series. We gotta be better than the brewers were....but i think we can be confident that we have better actual talent than the brewers do.

And yeah i think we can definitely play them as well as the phillies did.

Were the dodgers prohibitive favorites against the phillies? The betting lines thought they were slight favorites, but iirc i think the media gave the phillies the edge.

The Brewers had no regular hitter with a .800 OPS in the regular season.
Springer finished with .959, Guerrero .848, Bichette .840, Varsho .833.
The Brewers were more like Davis Schneider .797,  Kirk .769 and Barger .756.
Also, the bulk of the Brewers offense were the left bats, Yelich, Turang, Collins, Frelick.

Bo's on, as expected. Loperfido is off.

Jays also dropped Yariel, which isn't surprising given how he was used.

What is a surprise is that Ty France is on the roster.

The most likely outcome is Dodgers 4-2 as most sites have them as a 66% chance to win with the Jays 33% (Fangraphs is 66.5 and 33.5).

I had a friend ask me to make the case for the Jays and my reply was "baseball". Go Jays!

Very interesting Katie. I wonder that means Springer might play the OF in a game or two? I'm trying to read into the situation and that's all I got.

The Dodgers have 4 lefty relievers, and 5 (Snell) in a potential Game 7. That's likely why they included France.

Yeah, I'm literally thinking it through, too. Even with Vesia's status uncertain, the Dodgers do have lefties in their bullpen.

However, notwithstanding that Loperfido is a lefty, I thought he made sense for the bench as he's a reasonably fast runner if they needed to run for Bo, but either wanted to save Straw for later or he was already in for defence.

France isn't fast and he's not replacing Vlad or Springer/Bo at DH in the starting lineup, so his only use seems to be as a right-handed pinch-hitter. However, it still strikes me as a bit odd, as Schneider couldn't get off the bench last series, either.

Maybe they're thinking through a scenario where they start Davis, hit Lukes or Barger for him, but want to get a right-handed hitter in there later in the game against a lefty reliever.

You'd still presumably need Straw to come in for defence for France.

This makes me think that Bo is starting, as presumably if Bo was limited to pinch-hitting, he's the right-handed bat on the bench. And, presumably, IKF runs for Bo if that's necessary.

So no Vesia on the roster. RH Will Klein in instead.

Davis couldn't get off the bench last series because the only time he was really an option Speier was deployed in the 3rd and 4th innings, and John didn't want to take Barger and Lukes out of the game.

In the other pinch hitting spot they went with Straw for Barger, so I guess you can wonder why that wasn't a spot for Davis.

I think the extra bat definitely makes sense in this matchup. And dropping Yariel is a good sign they're feeling good about Bassitt.

Cito throwing the first pitch!

Very helpful, UO.

(Casparius is off the roster, btw.)

I'm happy Yariel is off, too, and the bench is bigger.

To me, the France selection makes more sense of Bo is starting rather than being limited to pinch-hitting and I think it makes the most sense if he is at 2B. I think if he was a pinch-hitter, Loperfido would make more sense as he's more versatile in terms of being able to run for Bo.

But, if Bo is starting somewhere, I can see there's a real argument for France as the right-handed pinch-hitter.

Here's a shoutout to John "Nostradamus" Northey. Here is the headline and first sentence after the Jays first exhibition game on February 23, 2025.

Jays 1-0 to start! World Series here we come

Or not. Hey, it is spring, time for dreams and fantasies. Orelvis an MVP with 50+ HR, Bo back to leading the league in hits, etc.

Well, our dreams and fantasies have come true! Ok, the Orelvis 50 HR was definitely a fantasy that didn't but Bo would have led the league in hits if he hadn't gotten hurt. But wait, look at John's season prediction om March 25, 2025.

" I'll go high with 92 wins and a division title"

Only 2 wins off and nobody else had them winning over 90 games. Scottt was the only other person in my quick perusal of the prediction thread to have the Jays winning the division. Lots of guesses in the 80 something win range and a few in the 70's ( Me, unfortunately). My take from this is that nobody dreamed the Jays would make it to the World Series this year so let's enjoy the hell out of it!

Cito throwing the first pitch!

Oh wow! The man turned 81 last March!

I can't match John's actual prediction, but I can share this text message exchange with Eephus from March!

no casparius? shoot. then i am missing the 9th RP....

ah....it's Henriquez.

indulge me guys when i post one final lineup just to satisfy my OCD.

My prediction for the WS is that the starting pitchers as a group for both teams don't do as well as expected and that overall the scores are higher than expected. I'm expecting some high scoring games.

that's an impressive call, Eeephus!

that was even before the jays signed vladdy! wow.

oh wait, that;s your call, Magpie, not eephus'.

respect!

last one I promise. just close your eyes 92-93.

Clearly not my call heh… might’ve thought twice about planning to spend half of October in Europe!

The Jays are putting their perfect World Series record (2-0) on the line. Only one other team has won multiple World Series without losing - the Marlins. If the…when?….the Jays win, they will be the only team to have three titles and no losses.