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While watching tonight's game, I couldn't help but feel that the Jays are trying to win games with one hand tied behind their collective backs. They just aren't very good and there are a number of players who are in roles they can't handle. I welcome readers to give their own opinions/gripes, here are mine ...


1) David Cooper - 20 games in a AAA hitter's paradise is supposed to erase 2 season of mediocre production at AA? Cooper isn't a great prospect and the evidence of the past week shows that he's the most over-matched Blue Jay since Joey Lawrence. The Jays are obviously monkeying with Snider's service time, as there is no way Cooper deserves a spot on this team ahead of Travis.

2) Corey Patterson  - the witching hour is about to strike. We are likely to see a whole bunch of whiffs from the man who has never been able to command the strike-zone. He takes bad routes in the outfield (Victor Martinez's fly ball should have been an easy out) and he's on the wrong side of 30 as far as base stealing ability is concerned. I would accept him as a 5th outfielder, to pinch run and start once a week against a right-hander without a good strikeout pitch, but as an everyday centerfielder he is going to kill the team.

3) Jose Molina - he's not a  good defensive catcher, but everyone will say that he is because he can't hit.. He's 35 and has lost whatever agility he once had behind the plate. He should be strictly a day-game-after-night-game catcher, not a 2-3 starts a week personal catcher. Trading away Napoli looks worse and worse by the day.

4) Edwin Encarnacion - as soon as Nix comes back, I would D.F.A him. He's one of the most undisciplined hitters on the team and has no defensive position. The act the front office put on at the beginning of the season, stating EE could handle 3B every day, was a comical farce.

Bonus gripe: Reyes to the bullpen; Rzepy or Villanueva can start until Cecil is deemed ready to return.

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Matthew E - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#234400) #
Watching this game, I felt like you could have stopped writing this article once you had the title done.
zeppelinkm - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#234402) #
Matt, can we just keep that other Jose?

He's pretty alright.
raptorsaddict - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#234403) #
Definitely would swap Zep for Reyes, bump Frasor/Villanuava into the higher leverage spots.

I'd also swap Coop for Thames, at least until Snider is back.

Jdog - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#234404) #
Agreed on all accounts. The only problem is they don't really have anyone thats much better than Patterson for the CF spot. I agree they need to play Davis there over Patterson for defensive purposes but Davis's offense has been horrible, and its not that he is getting unlucky...his approach stinks.

I would like to add that I think its a perfect time for A.A to try and trade some of his bullpen arms(Rauch and Dotel). If a team like Texas who is in need of bullpen help is ready to deal a prospect you might as well make the trade now rather than wait for the trade deadline. Maybe you can pluck a Chris Davis from the Rangers for a bullpen arm and let him DH and get the odd start at 1B. I'd rather give some of the younger guys a look in the pen. Move Villanueva into a more high leverage role(pen or rotation) and give Brad Mills his longman job so you can see what you have in Mills.
The_Game - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#234405) #
Still would rather start E5 over Nix. He'll start hitting eventually, Nix won't.
Spookie Wookie - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#234406) #
I think that ten years from now we'll barely remember that these guys played for the team. The Jays clearly aren't trying to win this season. I can only imagine that the motivation for playing EE at 3rd base is to try to boost his Elias ranking up to being worth something.

For now, I just remind myself that the Jays have a ton of picks in a (supposedly) great draft, a good farm system, no horrible contracts, and the labor situation (for now) looks better compared to NBA/NFL. Also, the NBA playoffs are great right now :)
Dave Till - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#234407) #
If this keeps up, Jose Bautista is going to demand a trade.

I agree with you about Cooper - he doesn't look like all that or a bag of chips.

There's exactly nothing that EE is doing to deserve a major league job - what, exactly, is he good at? Though I would like to see how many doubles he can hit without hitting any triples or home runs. He's up to 11 now.

On tonight's radio broadcast - before I turned it off - Gregg Zaun pointed out that EE is trying to hit a home run every time up. Zaun is well worth listening to, by the way. One of the most knowledgeable baseball analysts out there. The dude seriously knows baseball.

Somebody I was talking to suggested that the Jays sent Snider down because they didn't want the home fans to boo him. I'm not sure I agree with this, but I'm just throwing it out there. If they're keeping him down to mess with his service time, well... ugh. Ugh times five (which I think is an Uggla).

I'm okay with Molina. At the plate, he's comparable to JPA (JP slugs more, but Molina reaches base a bit better). I'd play Molina less, but he's not Ken Huckaby out there.

Reyes is fascinating and frustrating. He's almost a quality starter - it feels like it's this close. I haven't checked, but I wonder if his numbers drop way off when he pitches from the stretch? He seems to give up hits in bunches.



Dave Till - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#234408) #
Oh, and I'm not impressed by Patterson either. Whatever happened to Podsednik? Pods isn't great, but he'd be an upgrade on Patterson. Oh well - eventually, Snider will be back (won't he?), and Patterson can go back to the Dwayne Wise role - emergency centerfielder/pinch runner and occupant of a nice warm cozy seat on the bench that he can make all his own.
zeppelinkm - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#234409) #
Dave you might be on to something. According to Baseball-Reference, with men on hitters are batting .320 / .373 / .547 (920 OPS).
The_Game - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#234410) #
I don't want to hate on the guy, but Jose Molina has a career .281 OBP. He does not reach base better than Arencibia. In fact, he doesn't do much of anything better than him.
scottt - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#234411) #
I think Podsednik takes over from Cooper whenever he's done rehabbing.

Would have been nice to see Lind gets hot when Bautista is playing. It could still happen.

Patterson can play CF. Podsednik, like Rivera, can't do much besides LF or DH.

Dotel is a flyball pitcher who can't get lefties out. He's averaging more than one K per inning, but that's about the only positive. In 10 innings pitches 9 BB, 8 hits including 3 HR. 6 GB vs 17 FB.



electric carrot - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#234413) #
Yup. Especially with you on EE. I think we'd have 3 more wins by now if somehow Rolen had been at third this whole time.
Ron - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#234414) #

Hopefully I wasn’t the only person that was shaking my head when Farrell basically said Snider still hasn’t fixed the flaws in his swing before tonight’s game. Snider has 1.036 OPS right now in AAA and the Jays brass still isn’t impressed. As a paying customer why should I watch a hack like Snider play while I can enjoy watching Rivera and Cooper spray the ball all over the field.

 All snark aside, the Jays are basically doing everything in their power to get people not to buy Jays tickets.

Kasi - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#234415) #
Geez we have a losing streak against some good teams and everyone goes crazy. Yes this lineup could be put together better, but it is not like players like Hill are hitting either. It's hard to hit when everyone other than Lind and Bautista are hitting poorly.

Snider is hitting good OPS, but barely any extra base hits at all. If you like the idea of Snider being a singles hitter that might work. I don't particularily. Would like for him to start hitting some doubles if not Home Runs in that band box in Vegas.

I do think Farrell could improve some of his ingame management, but players need to play up to their (meager) potential for this team to at least be decent. Doesn't help that our proven starters have been inconsistent.
rfan8 - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#234416) #

1. Get rid of Patterson or sit him.  Just don't make me watch him play. 

2. Get Farrell to leave his starters in longer (except Reyes who for some reason they seem to give more rope).

hypobole - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#234417) #
Travis Snider went down because his swing was a mechanical mess; he wasn't doing much better than Cooper, who admittedly does look completely overmatched. BTW, for Snider conspiracy theorists, Travis is still looking for his first AAA HR. He's nowhere close to the Travis Snider we expected him to be.
If anyone thinks Podsednik is a defensive upgrade over Patterson, you'll find differently if/when Pods is called up. If you want OF defense, Dewayne Wise, for all his failings as a hitter, at least is competent on the field and is also in Las Vegas.
If anyone deserves to be DFA'd, it's Rivera. EE should have his 3rd baseman glove taken away and burned, but his hitting is better than Rivera's even if he lacks plate discipline. Edwin also has hustled this year, something Rivera has failed to do on a number of occasions.
greenfrog - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#234418) #
Embarrassing game, from Molina's weak attempt to catch the strikeout pitch that should have started the fourth inning, to EE's throwing error, to Patterson's questionable route on Martinez's deep fly to centre, to letting Dotel pitch to LHBs. The Jays did not look good tonight. At the moment, the offense is basically Lind and Bautista, plus reasonable production (for their positions) from Escobar and Arencibia, and then a bunch of scrubs. Too many extremely-low OBP guys, but I've been whingeing about that for a while now.

Still, gotta think long-term. AA never seemed to be trying to build a contender for 2011. Virtually all of his moves seem to be geared towards acquiring draft picks, acquiring trade chips, and putting some pieces in place for eventual contention. Like many good things in life, it's going to take time to develop.
Mike D - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#234419) #
Major league playing time is such a precious and scarce commodity to be wasted on no-hoper veterans with no chance of ever contributing to a contending team.  Cooper isn't as egregious a recipient of playing time as the others on your list because it's at least worth the experiment in his case with Lind injured and/or Snider sent down.

Encarnacion and Reyes should both be DFA'd.  Even with his lower salary, I think Encarnacion would go unclaimed again this year.

Patterson and Rivera can be credible bench players, although it's a somewhat weak MLB bench if they're both on it.  And, obviously, a joke of an MLB lineup if they're both in the 2-3-4 positions.

I can live with Molina as a backup catcher, backup catchers being what they are.  I think you have to hope Hill and Davis turn it around, although Davis's approach at the plate has not been promising.

I think this whole past offseason is proving to be too clever by half.  Statheads and draft junkies might get excited about accumulating sandwich picks, but this was a fine club a year ago that built up considerable goodwill in the city and country.  There were plenty of decent players available on 1- and 2-year deals that wouldn't have broken the bank or blocked rising stars.  I think (or at least I hope) the front office is regretting writing off this season before it happened, because the lineup is really ugly with even one, let alone several, injuries or absences.  And poor defensive play everywhere but SS and RF is harmful to the development of the rotation.  Honestly, bring on a Nix/Johnny Mac solution at third (and anybody but Rivera in left) just to cut the pitching staff a break.
greenfrog - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#234420) #
* Although Nix has that "grittiness/dirtbag" aura about him, which, along with his early-season heroics in a few games, gave him a kind of superficial appeal, he really isn't much better, if at all, than EE IMO.
uglyone - Monday, May 09 2011 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#234421) #
I always wonder why Aaron Hill escapes criticism.

He was the worst Jays' hitter last year by a longshot.

He is the worst Jays' hitter this year by a longshot (aside from Davis I guess).
Flex - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#234423) #
All snark aside, the Jays are basically doing everything in their power to get people not to buy Jays tickets.

That's all snark aside, is it? Because I'm sure you're right, that the Jays really are trying everything to get people not to buy tickets.

And while we're on the subject of snark, why do people accept that Brett Cecil needs time in AAA to fix things, but then just assume that the Jays are "monkeying" with Snider's service time? If they were going to monkey with his service time, wouldn't they have done it, I don't know, three seasons ago? Do you really think that Snider flailing at outside sliders is the best thing for him and the team? That it's really a conspiracy against him that's keeping him in the minors? Is it really the assumption now that Anthopoulos, who was the darling of us all as early as spring training, is now evil and working counter to the best interests of his players and the team?
Kasi - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#234424) #
Thing is this lineup other than Wells for Davis is basically the same lineup as last year. And looking how Wells is playing in LA we don't want him here. Bautista is awesome, Lind is doing well. JPA is doing his best to replace Buck and Escobar is about the same. But EE, Snider, Hill (his avg is slightly better but at least last year he had power), etc are all doing worse.

And please don't bring up Rolen. He wanted out. Just lucky we got something for him. Hope Stewart at least ends up as a stud reliever.

ayjackson - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#234425) #
Yeah, things would be great if we had Rolen and Doc in for EE and Drabek.  But they didn`t want to be here, so life goes on.
Mike D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#234426) #
Flex, although I think Anthopoulos didn't do enough to fortify his roster and has awarded too much playing time to well-below-average players, I do agree with you that he is operating in good faith -- people can't seriously disagree with that.  And I also agree that Snider in AAA can't possibly be for service time reasons.
dan gordon - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#234427) #

The starting staff is a bit of a mess now.  With the trading of Halladay and Marcum, the stumble of Cecil this year, the rotation is now an area of concern.  Every starter now has an ERA over 4.00.  Several of the hitters are performing well below expectations.  I expect some of them will turn things around, but the rotation concerns me, given how important starting pitching is.  Marcum, by the way, is starting to look like a legitimate #1 ace.  He's certainly in the top 30 starters in baseball, maybe top 20.

The baserunning thing continues to be ridiculous.  Getting a runner thrown out at the plate with nobody out is a big mistake.  Having that happen in the 9th inning when you are behind by a wide margin is beyond absurd.  That's bush league stuff.  Something needs to be done about it.

Ishai - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#234428) #
I disagree that Patterson has any value as a fifth outfielder. Despite being fast, he is a terrible defensively, probably the worst at going back on balls that I have ever seen, and an incredibly awkward baserunner who seems to make a mistake every game. If he can't play good defense and he can't pinch run, he's not a very useful fifth outfielder.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#234429) #
Snider has been monkeyed with each of the past two seasons. With a prospect of his potential, you absolutely have to give him 550+PA for at least two years to see what you have. This will be the third consecutive year wherein Snider does not reach that plateau. This is a stupid way to try to develop an elite hitter.

Everyone goes into slumps, everyone works on their swing mechanics all the time and the best place to do it is the major leagues, unless you are costing your team a shot at the pennant.

And I never said sending down Cecil was the right thing to do either.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#234430) #
lost in the criticism is that Patterson is our 2nd best hitting outfielder this year - and 3rd best isn't really all that close.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#234431) #
Hands up those who think that David Cooper has a brighter career ahead of him than Snider.

So what reason is there to have Cooper here instead of Snider, if not service time issues? Snider should be allowed to work out his problems just like almost every other Blue Jays hitter has.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#234432) #
the reason is they want to make a significant adjustment to his swing (or re-adjustment to what it used to be, actually), and feel that it would be easier for him to do that in the minors.

though he's still not driving the ball with authority down there yet anyways.

Cooper is nothing to them, IMO. Just a low-upside no-D hitter who might be able to earn some trade value in the shortterm.
Ron - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#234433) #
That's all snark aside, is it? Because I'm sure you're right, that the Jays really are trying everything to get people not to buy tickets.

The Jays number 2 and 4 hitters last night were Patterson and Encarnacion. The lineup featured only 2 players that had an OBP over 330. 2 of the core players are still playing at AAA while we are subjected to the likes of Dana Eveland 2.0 and Rivera. For a team that is rebuilding/retooling, the Jays only have 3 position players 27 years old or under. If the Jays are going to continue to lose, I would rather see them lose with younger players rather than veterans.

Am I frustrated? Yes, because I deeply care about the Jays. I wouldn't be here if I didn't.
katman - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#234434) #
You're missing 1 we should be dumping, and I'd keep 3 on your list, for now.

* Octavio Dotel. A guy reduced to 1 interesting ability (death on righties), who doesn't seem to be executing that touted role. Too many balls, too many hit, Zaunie damns him with faint praise today. I think it's the end of the road. When the Jays have to remove a reliever, and that will be soon, he'd be my guy.

As for the others...

* Cooper. Partially agree. He's not showing himself to be a future part of this team, and few thought he'd be anything more than possible trade bait. Then again, who would you replace him with right now? Unless he really turns around, he'll be going back down soon enough, For now, Lind is likely headed to DL, E5 needs to DH, and we don't need Thames' position. So Cooper stays until Lind is healthy. Beyond that, he's on borrowed time.

* Patterson. He continues to defy my low expectations, in a positive way. Defense does suck - but Podsednik is not an answer (and is hitting .240 at AAA), and Davis is cratering. Mastorianni isn't kicking down the door (AAA OBP .297). Bringing up DeWayne Wise doesn't make any contribution to the Jays' long term, though he's probably similar offense and maybe a defensive improvement (in CF? dunno). If your predicted cratering happens, fine. Until then, not seeing helpful alternatives.

* Molina. The pitchers really like him. Their development is far more important than his 2011 OBP. He stays.

* E5. He does have a defensive position. One where he's good, even. Thing is, it's 1st base, and Lind has made himself an OK defender there. E5 would actually be above average there... but he has to hit, and right now he isn't. I would really prefer him as a DH, but Nix (who isn't great, but is better defensively) has to get healthy. Though i'm about ready to say "Just put Johnny Mac in at 3rd, bring up McCoy, and send Cooper down."

I think we need to accept that 3B will suck most of this year, as we won't see Lawrie until late.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:38 AM EDT (#234435) #
Snider should rework his swing in the majors. Reworking it in AAA doesn't mean a damn thing, as he has shown he can hit at that level.

Basically over the last 2 plus years the organisation has taught him that anytime he struggles he's going to be sent to AAA. That's a heck of a way to build confidence. It's disgusting and there is no excuse for it.

eudaimon - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#234436) #
I feel that a lot of the current suckiness is due to bad luck. Lots of little injuries, players all slumping at onces, injuries when the player was looking to be getting back on track (Lind, Encarnacion), and we've missed several games of Bautista, who is looking like an MVP candidate. Pitching wise, we're getting both a bit lucky or a bit unlucky, depending on the player. I'm not too concerned as of yet and feel that on the most part we're making the right moves.

Cooper should probably go back down though.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#234437) #
You've gotta read two thirds of the way through the comments to get to the RIGHT ONE. Dan Gordon has it nailed.

We thought we had a herd of young stud starters - boy were we wrong. Romero has regressed, Morrow still has GREAT stuff but just not consistently enough to head up a contending teams starters, Drabek has GREAT stuff but little idea where it's going, Litsch - well Litsh is Litsch and lastly Cecil didn't make it through April. The bull pen has been really good or we'd only have a handful of wins.

As to the offense - it really only matters if your pitching is lights out and ours is not lights out its yuck, yuckier and yuckiest. Two things to remember about young pitchers - they eventually MIGHT get better and two - young pitchers will break your heart.

Welcome to the town of broken hearts.

eudaimon - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#234438) #
Robert, I feel that you overstate the difference between AAA and MLB. Surely there is a talent difference, but there are still a lot of very good players there. If one to work on their swing, it should be there.

You know what's disgusting? Snider's batting line from this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2830&position=OF. Since he provides no defensive value (already worth -2.5 of UZR), he better work on his bread and butter somewhere else, while the option is still there. If Snider had shown true success as a hitter in the majors I might agree with you, but Snider in his career has been purely average, with his peak being an average 105 in 2010.
Thomas - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#234439) #
I'd rather have Dewayne Wise here then Patterson, I think. Wise is at least a plus defensive centre fielder with a reasonable arm, which I think outweighs Patterson's slightly better hitting abilities. Of course, you can make an argument neither of them should be here, but if you're going to have a speedy fourth outfielder who can play CF and Mastroianni and Podsednik aren't in play, you can make a strong case for Wise over Patterson.

I have no problem with them sending Cecil down, given his drop in velocity (although you can make the argument he should have received another start or two). However, Snider's problems are different and I agree with the crowd that thinks the demotion was very premature.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#234440) #
If you can hold your own in the majors at the age that Snider came up - then that is pretty special. It is quite possible that the Jays' handling of Snider has contributed to his stagnation.

I've said time and time again - special prospects need time to work through their struggles at the big league level. It is a very rare young hitter who does not struggle at all during their first 3-4 years in the bigs.

You are going to judge based on 99 PA? That's just silly. I believe that the Jays are trying to keep Snider's service time under 3.0 years by the conclusion of 2011, thereby delaying his eventual free agency by a year.

I will not accept any kind of verdict on Snider until he has had a 550+ PA season.

robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:12 AM EDT (#234441) #
Robert, I feel that you overstate the difference between AAA and MLB. Surely there is a talent difference, but there are still a lot of very good players there. If one to work on their swing, it should be there.

No I am not. Snider has never had problems with AAA pitching - they are not, as a group, good enough to exploit his weaknesses. Major league pitchers can, which is why Snider can only learn to hit major league pitching by adapting to what they do to him. Give the man 1200 PA and he will slowly adapt to what the MLB pitchers are doing to him. Or maybe he won't and we'll at least KNOW where we stand with him. The Jays are merely delaying his progress by sending him down.
Simon Broder - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:26 AM EDT (#234442) #
I must say, for a community of ostensibly levelheaded baseball-watching veterans, I'm sensing a lot of hysteria for a mediocre team hitting a bit of a rough patch. Patterson, Molina and EE are all placeholders, very little question about that. But who do you want to replace them with? You'll get a lot more David Coopers if you keep dumping your mediocre veterans.

People are also too harsh on Encarnacion. He's not a great hitter, not a good defender and potentially not a great attitude, but he does bring a little power to the table and at the end of the year is probably a better bat than, if not Lawrie, any one of Hill, Nix, Patterson, Davis. It speaks more to the mediocrity of the team than it speaks well of EE, but at reduced salary he's not the whipping boy everyone makes him out to be. Have patience, bear with the struggles. This is a team that just moved a 29-year-old with a 2.09 ERA - i.e. not one that sees themselves as particularly good.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:37 AM EDT (#234443) #
I think Encarnacion is the streakiest hitter on the team, which is saying something.

I'd be happy to roll with EE as a full-time DH once Nix or Lawrie (or Bautista) takes over third. He's 14/37 in his limited experience as a DH and 6/19 as a pinch-hitter – maybe he takes his glove with him into the dugout.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:40 AM EDT (#234444) #
BONUS highly sophisticated insight. I would classify the kind of streak EE is on right now as 'he looks totally lost.'
TamRa - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:50 AM EDT (#234445) #
Bah.

bunch a ledge jumpers, the lot a ya.

YES, there's room for criticism - injuries have cuased some unfortunate problems (EE at 3B, Patterson in CF) - some guys started cold (Snider, Hill, Rivera, EE) and Farrell has made some questionable choices.

But i invite you to take a gander at the list of the 25 worst OPS totals in the AL and see if you recognize any names.

This stuff happens.

I'm not saying we're gonna catch fire and race into contention by June, but some of hte things yall are griping about are the product of pressing, mechanical flaws, and good old fashioned slumps.

And the pitching? Seriously? Yes, Cecil went south. But everyone else is doing pretty much exactly what any of us would have expected of them.

Romero regressed? Baloney! He's coming off one bad outing when he was off his regular schedule. He's had five excellent starts and two poor ones. He's going to be FINE (barring injury)

Same with Morrow. Today is the last thing to look at to figure where he's going.

Litsch has better ratios than he's ever had in his career.

Yall need to simmer the heck down.

Yes they are looking ugly right now, but outside of the Tigers, they haven't had a real breather since the Twins left town. To say nothing of two 10 game road trips. As the cliche goes, things are never as bad as they look in the worst of times and vice versa.

I, for one, am mostly chill.


robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#234447) #
Simon,

Point A: we were not promised a team that was going to be mediocre

Point B: If a team is going to be mediocre, I'd like to at least watch players that:

a) have a future with the team

or

b) play hard

What are we supposed to do as fans, just whitewash the performance of the team no matter how bad it is?

Point C:

Even if you leave aside Lawrie as not yet quite ready, I'd rather be watching Thames, Snider. Podsednik and  Wise play  than EE, Cooper, Rivera and Patterson.

While I'm at it, yes Rajai has been poor with the bat but just give him time, bat him 9th and grit your teeth with him in CF - he's still better than Patterson.

Mike D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#234448) #
Robert, while you may be right about the wisdom of demoting Snider, I just don't agree with the belief that the motive for demoting him is only, or primarily, financial.  He was penciled in to play every day, including against LHPs, and he developed an obvious mechanical flaw.  We all know he can annihilate the PCL and it's a reasonable explanation to send him there to restore his confidence and address his blind spots.  Even if we generally accept that top prospects should be allowed to struggle at the big league level, I'm not sure that "one size fits all" to the extent that any demotion of a top prospect, in any context, must be the result of some kind of nefarious intent.  Snider is still really young -- Wojciechowski was born in his birth year and he's just a year older than Deck McGuire -- and the damage, if any, of sending him down won't be permanent.

For your last post, though, I agree with Points A, B, and everything in C except I don't think that Wise brings more to the table than Patterson.  They're equivalent to me and Patterson plays hard too.  Either are fine as a backup and not fine as a starter on a supposedly developing team in search of core pieces.  Every organization in baseball ought to be able to not give Patterson and Wise 400 MLB PAs in 2011.

Simon, that's a gross undertstatement to say that Encarnacion is "not a good defender."  The number and nature of his physical mistakes at third would be unacceptable even if he wasn't also making mental mistakes, and the reverse is also true.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#234449) #
I have to add Octavio Dotel to the list as well. I didn't like the signing at the time and he has done nothing to change my mind. Dude cannot pitch without his formerly plus velocity. And the use of Camp last night as a long man made me shake my head. He's already overworked; Farrell is going to make his arm fall off.
robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#234450) #
Mike D,

Occam's razor. If Snider had stayed the full 2011 season on the major league roster he would be close to super two. Given the method that most non-rich teams use regarding service time, it would be weird if this were NOT a major factor regarding his demotion (that's three times over the last three years).

If Snider possesses some special characteristics that necessitate a stint in AAA while a whole host of less talented players compile major league service time and are therefore foisted upon our TV screens - then I haven't heard anything about it. I'm not one to swallow whole everything that a front office says because I know a good portion of it is just spin-doctoring.

robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#234451) #
PS when have you heard any front office say that they demoted someone, or failed to promote them, due to service time issues?
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#234452) #
While the starting pitching has been an issue, the poor defense hasn't helped. Last night Morrow was pulled after 3.1 IP and 71 pitches. In my mind, though (and likely in Morrow's), he gets out of that inning with much less damage - perhaps no damage - if Molina does what he's supposed to with the leadoff batter, i.e. blocks the breaking ball that Morrow threw to strike out Boesch (the Jays were up 2-0 at the time). In which case the Jays could have been looking at 6 or 7 IP from their starter, and possibly a win.

The same thing happened the other day when EE flubbed a chance at a DP, and possible a triple play, by throwing the ball away. Romero impressively worked out of the inning, but he had to work that much harder to do so, burning his pitch count in what turned into a high-stress situation (bases loaded, none out).

Or Arencibia dropping the ball after tagging the runner out at the plate.

Or Rajai Davis dropping a routine fly ball while attempting a one-handed catch.

Etc.

These "plays not made" add up, placing an extra burden on both the starters and the relievers.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#234453) #

Molina. The pitchers really like him.

Just stop.

92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#234454) #

Since he provides no defensive value (already worth -2.5 of UZR)

UZR one month into the season is less than worthless. Snider is one of the best LF in baseball.

 

 

92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#234455) #

and Patterson plays hard too.

If you've watched the games this year you know that Patterson either doesn't play hard or has a negative baseball IQ. Either way he has absolutely no business being in CF.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#234456) #
I like Mike D's phrase "too clever by half".  Anthopoulos made a number of fine moves this off-season,  the Wells' trade and the Bautista contract being the obvious ones, but the actual building of a contending team is a work-in-progress.  There is no reason now that it cannot happen long before the draft picks of 2010 and 2011 arrive in the majors. 

There is a bit of a misconception about Snider.  He was a career .300 hitter in the minors; at his best, he has a level swing which will generate significant doubles and triples power, although he is certainly capable of golfing the low/inside pitch over the right-field fence. If and how he develops further is an unknown, but the only way to find out is to give him regular time in the major leagues.  The club does not look like it will contend, and so there is really no better time than now to find out which way Travis will go. 

Paul D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#234457) #
UZR one month into the season is less than worthless. Snider is one of the best LF in baseball.

I'm not clear on what you're saying here.  Are you suggesting that Snider is one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball?  If so, what do you base taht assessment on?
92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#234458) #
I'm suggesting that UZR in a one month (or even one year) sample is useless, and that Snider is one of the best defensive LFs in baseball. Seems pretty straightforward. The latter is my opinion which hasn't been allowed to be supported by fact because every time a new facial hair sprouts Snider is sent down.

And what the hell is Corey Patterson doing stealing 2nd with the best hitter in the universe at the plate and the team down 4 runs?! AA assembles the team like this year is irrelevant and Farrell manages like it's life-or-death. Makes no sense.
cybercavalier - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#234459) #
Since the Jays are commented to have different sorts of problem with our outfielders (Patterson, Davis, Podsenik and Snider), how about getting John Bowker from the Pirates' DFA ? IMO, at least on paper Bowker would be better than Patterson and the current version of Podsenik and Snider. Let's get JBaus 2.0.
cybercavalier - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#234460) #
Since the Jays are commented to have different sorts of problem with our outfielders (Patterson, Davis, Podsenik and Snider), how about getting John Bowker from the Pirates' DFA ? On paper Bowker would be better than Patterson and the current version of Podsenik and Snider. Let's get JBaus 2.0 or at least get a MLB veteran and former Giants.
rtcaino - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#234462) #

This is the most reactionary article/thread that I can recall on Batters Box. (I’m sure there were some during the Season from Hell…)

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#234463) #
reactionary

I can't recall a single word about Rick Santorum, so this thread is a real piker in that regard.  Some of the points in the thread have nothing to do with winning or losing in 2011, but rather about development.  That, for me, is the most interesting point.  Players develop, managers develop, General Managers develop.  What we see now in 2011 is really all three happening pretty much simultaneously (with the key player development, unfortunately in one or two instances, taking place in the minor leagues).

China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#234464) #

....Point A: we were not promised a team that was going to be mediocre....

What planet have you been residing on?  We were quite obviously promised -- and practically guaranteed -- a mediocre team in 2011.  Were you paying attention when the Jays traded Marcum and Wells to save money and acquire prospects? 

.... I'd rather be watching Thames, Snider. Podsednik and  Wise play  than EE, Cooper, Rivera and Patterson....

Yes, and the fans would have enjoyed watching Manny Ramirez in a Blue Jay uniform too, but the Jays have to think about more than just short-term entertainment value. I'd love to see Thames and Podsednik in a Blue Jay uniform too -- it would be very entertaining -- but I have no illusion that they are going to rescue the Jays from mediocrity.

.....Cooper isn't a great prospect and the evidence of the past week shows that he's the most over-matched Blue Jay since Joey Lawrence....

So you're confident about your assessment of Cooper after 27 plate appearances, but we're supposed to ignore the evidence of Snider's 99 plate appearances this year?

....I will not accept any kind of verdict on Snider until he has had a 550+ PA season....

He had 319 plate appearances last year.  Yet after that, he regressed this year. What is so magical about 550 plate appearances in a season that would guarantee an accurate assessment?  I don't see a huge difference between 319 and 550 plate appearances -- certainly not enough difference to prevent the Jays from assessing his swing.  He's had 774 major-league plate appearances in his career -- nothing to sniff at. But so far two managers (Gaston and Farrell) and one GM have been dissatisfied with his swing.  Maybe they're all wrong and you're right, but I'm going to trust them on this.  Let him fix his swing in a low-pressure environment, where he doesn't feel the weight of the team on his shoulders, and then he'll get another chance.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#234465) #
what the hell is Corey Patterson doing stealing 2nd with the best hitter in the universe at the plate and the team down 4 runs?! AA assembles the team like this year is irrelevant and Farrell manages like it's life-or-death

In a life-or-death game that would be an unbelievably stupid decision - the "I'm double parked and this game needs to end ASAP" play...
Paul D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#234466) #
I'm suggesting that UZR in a one month (or even one year) sample is useless, and that Snider is one of the best defensive LFs in baseball. Seems pretty straightforward. The latter is my opinion which hasn't been allowed to be supported by fact because every time a new facial hair sprouts Snider is sent down.

Okay.  Well I think this is a strange position, not supported by facts, and I'm not sure that even Travis Snider would agree with you.

He looks to me to be the 4th worst in his own division, ahead of only Luke Scott, but behind Fuld, Crawford, and Gardner.
bball12 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#234467) #
This was supposed to be a year of rebuilding. Lots of exciting young prospects. So far we have been treated to a team full of older retreads that play the game very poorly while the future of the team gets jerked around.
Bad for the prospects, bad for the blue jays and bad for the fans. Very disappointing 1st month and now totally confused as to what the plan really is.
ogator - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#234468) #
  Everyone likes a team that is aggressive, that takes an extra base that puts pressure on the defence but this team seems to think that aggression is the most important quality in a team, that stealing bases is more important than scoring runs and risk is a reward in and of itself.  Far too many runners are getting thrown out on base in situations where the risk is not supported by a reasonable likelihood of success.  Is Aaron Hill really a base stealing threat and were the bases he was stealing worth the risk to his troublesome legs?  Is base stealing what makes Travis Snider so interesting?  Do we really want to watch Adam Lind try to steal a base?  How many runners need to be thrown out attempting to steal third before Mr. Farrell realizes that the attempt is far too often counter-productive?  Players go through slumps and there is not much that can be done.  Players have off years like strawberries or wheat.   Chance is always a factor but maybe this team would be better if someone slipped a little more intelligence into the equation.
TtD - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#234469) #
I'm honestly amazed at the shear panic that is going on around the jays blogosphere the last week or so, I can't be the only one that's more than happy with the progress this year of pretty much all levels of the system.  Even just looking at pros and cons the team is doing alright this year, yet people are obsessing over single players (when we're not at the stage one player really makes a difference) and the changes not happening soon enough.
This year the Jays are a young team of developing major league talent, complemented with bargain basement filler (Patterson/Encarnacion/Molina/Nix/Rivera/etc...) at positions where the talent isn't yet ready.  Despite this, and some expected struggles from some of the developing talent (Snider/Cecil), and a blight of niggling injuries the team has remained largely competitive.  It's meant we're able to take the time getting our young talent fine tuned at AAA without panic (chance to run Thames and Lawrie a 2nd time through the pitchers at LV) and for the most part the key talents in our minors have taken those steps forward so far this year.

Of the pieces we're relying on at the MLB level:

Bautista ^^^ Has been spectacular and outside the time off for minor things he looks to be a fixture
Lind ^^^ Has settled at 1B and is hitting, back spasms are a concern but if they are not an issue it looks to be a gain season
Arencibia ^^^ Is slowly settling in, he's been making solid contact and the defence is better than advertised, yet still a work in progress
Escobar ^^^ Much better than last season, defensively fine and inconsistant but promising with the bat
Drabek ^^^ Still has lousy control but given that he looks like being able to stay at the MLB level despite this, it's a step forward, he's a serviceable #4 already, now we hope he develops
Litsch ^^^ Hopes of him as a future #5 look to be met, he may even exceed that this year
Rzepczysnki ^^^ Has been lights out as a leftie from the pen
Jannsen ^^^ Has been tidy in the pen and looks to be a fixture now
Romero>>> Injuries worry but he's been around last years level, no real concerns
Morrow>>> Stuff is fine, one bad start does not a crisis make, injury concern this season needs monitoring
Hill /// Still looks broken, needs a major swing rebuild
Snider /// Swing was a mess, it's a down season so far until we see swing improvement, time to turn this around but looks bad
Cecil /// Completely fell apart, major loss to the plan
Camp /// Overall solid but recent performance I can see having people worry

Of the fliers and useless filler;

Villanueva ^^^ Has been lights out as a long man
Rauch ^^^ One bad game but he's a fine late inning reliever
Francisco ^^^ Has been fine when healthy, as advertised
Molina >>> As advertised, lost a little D, gained a little O, overall neutral for a filler piece
Rivera >>> No value trade filler, he's been as advertised, not a longterm member of the team
Nix >>> As advertised before injury, not a longterm member of the team
Patterson >>> As advertised, not a longterm member of the team
Reyes >>> Some up, some down, better than expected arguably but that's faint praise, may be something
Dotel /// Partially due to usage but has been bad
Davis /// career 4th outfielder has not looked like a starter yet, failed gamble in all probability
Purcey /// failed gamble
Encarnacion /// cheap filler, hasn't produced

Of our significant prospects for this season;

Lawrie ^^^ Started hot and looks like settling at 3B, will see him later in the season at current rate of development
Thames ^^^ Has been better than expected, if he maintains current level will be up later this season
Stewart >>> Little good, little bad, no real signs of a step forward but overall solid
Cooper >>> Made it up sooner than expected but has shown little in SSS.

Of our miscelanneous;

Farrell ??? Some solid work comlemented with some mind boggling decisions, classic first season manager to my viewing but to others I can see it being more damning, really debateable.
Minors ^^^ Overall we've had prospects doing better this season at higher levels, with the exceptions of Mastroianni and D'Arnaud pospects have been as expected or better.
Finances ^^^ Wells off the sheets, no anchor contracts outside of the Rivera situation, far better position than before


So overall at this stage of the season we still have Bautista at RF have gained a 1B, SS, C, 4th and 5th starters and four members of a our future bullpen staff, we're down a 3rd starter, 2B and LF, and we're still yet to solve CF/3B/DH.  Our minors have progressed nicely so far, and we have gained in terms of finances and draft picks, but our management remains a work in progress.  Overall we're not competitive, but have enough talent to compete with any team on a good day, essentially the same as last year with a reduction in costs and a farm system one year closer to bringing through the talent influx to the top levels.  If you want a negative side to the season, we've not hit lucky with any of our flyers in the field, and this has meant our lineup has been poor, but surely that was the expectation going into the season.

At this stage i'm happy with the progress, the picture is a little clearer than at the season start, and the teams outperformed my personal expectations so far.  For others that may not be the case of course but a little positivity about the season is I think allowed.



uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#234470) #
The only guy I really want to dump ASAP is JoJo. Right now he is blocking a clearly better pitcher in Cecil, and never had any business being on this staff.


As for the names most frequently mentioned in this thread:

- EE and Rivera will be dumped (or at least pushed into a supporting role) when and if Snider/Lawrie/Thames/Cooper show that they are ready and don't need AAA anymore. That time IMO is coming very, very soon but not quite yet.

- Davis/Patterson/Podsednik and even Wise should all be kept and given the chance to battle it out for CF time. We shouldn't dump any of them, IMO. CF is definitely a position we need to address going forward, though, unless we're willing to wait a couple of years for Gose/Marisnick .

- Hill should likely be dumped, but I guess we should give him this one more year to try and bounce back. I wish we didn't have to keep hitting him in the middle of the order, though, and I would hope that a guy like Nix gets a chance to steal playing time from him if he earns it.

Ideally, if the kids keep performing in AAA and the vets bounce back to career norms, our lineup looks something like this by midseason:

CF: Davis
RF: Bautista
LF: Snider
3B: Lawrie
SS: Escobar
2B: Hill
1B: Lind
DH: EE / Thames
C: Arencibia

UT: EE / Thames
OF: Patterson
IF: McDonald
C: Molina

Guys like Rivera, Podsednik, Wise, Cooper will really have to perform to earn roster spots going forward, but if they do they should keep guys like EE and Patterson honest as well.

CF and 2B clearly need upgrades from outside the organization there, IMO, but I like the raw talent at all the other slots. (Ideally we go big for a guy like Fielder in that DH slot, but that's a different story.)

But please, dump JoJo ASAP.
China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#234471) #

Alex Anthopolous has done some brilliant things in his first 18 months as GM, but not all of his decisions have turned out very well.  He has done brilliantly in his handling of the high-stakes decisions on Wells and Bautista.  He has acquired some great prospects.  He has also placed a lot of faith in a batch of relatively young players:  Hill, Snider, Lind, Romero, Morrow, Reyes, Litsch, Drabek and Arencibia.   In many cases, his faith has been rewarded -- the turnaround by Lind is encouraging, and the pitching rotation and bullpen are generally solid.  In other cases, it's not clear if his faith was well-placed.  But what choice did he have?  It's still too soon to give up on Hill and Snider.  He's got to give them time to bounce back -- either in the majors or the minors.  The alternatives aren't good.

If we can fault Anthopolous for anything, it's the acquisition of mid-priced talent like Davis, Encarnacion, Patterson, Dotel and Podsednik.   They were never highly regarded by anyone, yet Anthopolous has gambled nearly $10-million on those five players.  So far he's got almost nothing to show for it.  Two conclusions:  his knack for scraping up bargain-bin talent is not nearly as shrewd as that of his predecessor;  and it might have been smarter to spend $10-million on one good free-agent, rather than five mediocre acquisitions.

Again, it all comes down to payroll.  The Jays keep promising to spend money in the future.  But every year -- for the past few years -- they have always tried to assemble a team on the cheap.  You get what you pay for.

TtD - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#234472) #
The question is was that talent on the market in terms of longterm quality filler, last year there was a lot of passable filler but the longterm talent (Crawford/Werth/Beltre) was hard to find and badly overpriced.  The team needed half a lineup and with no real pieces available and barely five positions locked in i'd go with reliable league average filler for those positions any time.  Davis is the trade I question the most, and if anything at the price he was gained at he's a very good 4th outfielder, the others are all depth filler at minor cost there solely to cover in case of injuries.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#234474) #
...mid-priced talent like Davis, Encarnacion, Patterson, Dotel and Podsednik

Patterson & Podsednik are bottom-price. Patterson's only making 900K, and Podsednik is practically no-price at all, since he's not even on the MLB roster yet.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#234476) #
We thought we had a herd of young stud starters - boy were we wrong. Romero has regressed, Morrow still has GREAT stuff but just not consistently enough to head up a contending teams starters, Drabek has GREAT stuff but little idea where it's going, Litsch - well Litsh is Litsch and lastly Cecil didn't make it through April. The bull pen has been really good or we'd only have a handful of wins.

This is really not true, though.

First of all, we have the youngest and least experienced starting staff in baseball. (And it should be younger because Cecil should be there instead of Reyes.)

Secondly, the Jays' starters are putting up superb component numbers (while interestingly, the Jays' relievers are not).

While the Jays' starter's ERA isn't good (4.53), their FIP (3.94) and xFIP (3.88) are solid, even though their leader in both these categories (Morrow) has missed more than half the season so far). The Jays' starters are the best strikeout starters in baseball so far. The Jays' starters seem to be fairly unlucky so far - their .312 BABIP is by far the highest in the AL (no other team is even at .300). 2nd highest in the AL is the Mariners at .298.

And again, all these numbers come with the caveat that one of their best starters has been injured for much of the season, and that they've continued to pitch an undeserving pitcher ahead of two other guys (Cecil and Litsch) who are simply better than him. Reyes has the worst xFIP and FB% of the 6 starters, and is only currently being saved by totally unsustainable 3.4% HR/FB rate. Although he's hardly being "saved" given that his numbers still stink. He should not be on this team.

Here's the xFIP numbers for the 6 starters:

  • Morrow: 2.69
  • Romero: 3.14
  • Litsch: 3.32
  • Drabek: 4.53
  • Cecil: 4.65
  • Reyes: 4.80


  • That's a very good young staff right there, aside from that last guy. (And that last guy's true outcomes number there would be much, much worse if he had a more reasonable HR/FB rate so far).

    The first thing we have to do is dump Reyes ASAP.

    The second thing we have to do is go back to a 7-man bullpen, so that Farrell stops being so tempted to yank our starters at the first sign of trouble.
    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#234477) #

    He looks to me to be the 4th worst in his own division, ahead of only Luke Scott, but behind Fuld, Crawford, and Gardner.

    Crawford and Gardner are probably the top two defensive LFs in baseball, so you accomplish very little by ranking Snider behind them. Fuld isn't a LF - he's a bench player - there's hundreds, probably thousands, of athletes across America than can play a fantastic defensive OF, but I'm discussing MLB regulars here. After you pass the two speed demons in the AL East whose teams can afford to play them in LF because they have monster lineups, there really isn't anyone markedly better defensively than Snider, and there's a whole lot of slow, aging, and/or mediocre fielders. Guys like Soriano, Holliday, Ibanez, Braun, Bay, Lee, Young, Burrell, Willingham, Gomes, etc. are the norm for the position, so unless you look for CFs playing LF (CarGo, Wells) you're out of luck.

    He has done brilliantly in his handling of the high-stakes decisions on Wells

    It must have taken a real stroke of genius for AA to save 81m over 4 years for a player who was going to take up nearly 33% of his payroll.

    Again, it all comes down to payroll.  The Jays keep promising to spend money in the future.  But every year -- for the past few years -- they have always tried to assemble a team on the cheap.  You get what you pay for.

    Good morning! I've been saying this since before the 2010 season, but nobody wants to hear it. Everyone has spent so much time justifying the direction Beeston/AA have taken that they don't see it for what it is - a blatant cost-cutting measure for an exorbitantly rich ownership. Anyone still remember when Beeston cut payroll in 2010 so they could move forward in 2011? What's the excuse going to be this offseason when they don't spend any money?

    The Blue Jays are most definitely getting what they paid for. As much as everone hated to love Vernon Wells' contract he was our 2nd best hitter last year and he was pawned off for no other reason than Rogers is cheap.

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#234478) #
    Er, loved to hate.
    hypobole - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#234479) #

    Occam's razor. If Snider had stayed the full 2011 season on the major league roster he would be close to super two. Given the method that most non-rich teams use regarding service time, it would be weird if this were NOT a major factor regarding his demotion (that's three times over the last three years).

    Snider was NOT demoted last year. He injured his wrist and went down for rehab. And as for fixing his swing in Toronto, Murphy has had over a year working with him. I believe there was a newspaper article early last year as well with Snider complaining aloud about his swing being tinkered with by Murphy. Maybe it was felt there needed to be a different voice in his ear.

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#234480) #

    Snider was NOT demoted last year. He injured his wrist and went down for rehab.

    And then got demoted for 2 weeks, using up an option and saving a few days of service time, perhaps just enough to prevent him from being a Super-2.

    China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#234481) #

    ....Podsednik is practically no-price at all....

    Podsednik gets $1-million if he makes the major-league team, and I think it's virtually certain that he'll be on the Jays at some point this year.  I guess I should have defined my terms, but "mid-priced" in my view is anything from roughly $1-million to $4-million.  (Patterson's salary is $900,000 so that's mid-priced too, I'd say.)  Overall, the Jays paid nearly $10-million for the services of five veterans -- all over the age of 30 -- and I'm suggesting that it wasn't a great investment.  But yeah, if they are bench players, Patterson and Podsednik are reasonably priced.

     

    rtcaino - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#234482) #
    Here's the xFIP numbers for the 6 starters:

  • Morrow: 2.69
  • Romero: 3.14
  • Litsch: 3.32
  • Drabek: 4.53
  • Cecil: 4.65
  • Reyes: 4.80

    That's a very good young staff right there, aside from that last guy. (And that last guy's true outcomes number there would be much, much worse if he had a more reasonable HR/FB rate so far).

    xFIP adjusts HR/FB rate, if I'm not mistaken.
  • China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#234483) #

    ....It must have taken a real stroke of genius for AA to save 81m over 4 years for a player who was going to take up nearly 33% of his payroll....

    Not sure of the reason for your sarcasm here.  Obviously the stroke of genius was in persuading the Angels to take Wells.  Nobody thought AA could persuade any team to take Wells, and he did it.  Surely "brilliant" is le mot juste?

    ....I've been saying this since before the 2010 season, but nobody wants to hear it....

    I've been complaining about Blue Jay cost-cutting since the Scott Rolen trade, if not earlier.   The Rolen trade, by the way, still looks like a blatant cost-cutting move to me -- regardless of whether Zach Stewart ever pans out.  (And yes, I know Rolen wanted out, but I remain unconvinced that that was the only reason for the trade.)

    China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#234484) #

    Here's the xFIP numbers for the 6 starters:  Morrow: 2.69;  Romero: 3.14;  Litsch: 3.32;  Drabek: 4.53;  Cecil: 4.65;  Reyes: 4.80

    Doesn't this make the case that Reyes has been almost as good as Drabek and Cecil, even without the improvements that the Jays expect him to make?  For a 5th starter, it's not a terrible xFIP.

    Ron - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#234485) #

    If the Jays don’t at least kick the tires with Fielder this off-season, than they aren’t serious about winning. It wouldn’t cost a single prospect or player on the 25 man roster to acquire him. It’s rare to see an elite hitter that is only going to be 28 years old hitting the open market. If Fielder only wants to play 1B, that would likely rule out the Yankees and the Red Sox from the bidding war that’s going to happen. Under the current regime, the Jays have shown a willingness to spend money on the draft and international prospects and I hope this extends to the major league level.

    uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#234487) #
    xFIP adjusts HR/FB rate, if I'm not mistaken

    ah, you're absolutely right. that's exactly what xFIP does. my bad. that's why his FIP is so much better than his xFIP. good catch, thanks.

    Doesn't this make the case that Reyes has been almost as good as Drabek and Cecil, even without the improvements that the Jays expect him to make? For a 5th starter, it's not a terrible xFIP.

    depends on how you want to spin it, I guess. I would say it makes the case that he hasn't even been as good as the rookie 23 year old who is struggling badly with command, or as good as the 2nd year 24 year old who apparently needed to urgently restructure his game down in the minors. Either way you spin it, though, it still says he's the least deserving starter on the team, and we've decided to demote both Litsch and Cecil instead of him.
    Kelekin - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#234488) #
    Wow, I can't believe some of these comments.  I understand people came into the season thinking we were going to build off last year, but we also traded Marcum and Wells, and had a lot of above-average-level performances from players last year (Buck, Half-Season of AGon, Above Average from Wells, J-Mac hitting for power).  Regression was to be expected because we also had a team that was expected to perform poorly last year and we over-achieved.

    When you look through the world with Blue Jay-tinted glasses, the statistics and trends get ignored.  Here at Batters Box a lot go by 'feel' instead of stats and that emotion is really evident in that thread.

    Wading through the illogical and the logical, Ricky Romero has hardly "regressed".  BB/9 is down, K/9 is up, WHIP is down.  Do people really still even pay attention to ERA? He's on pace to throw less than the 18 wild pitches from last year too!  Anyway, let's look at this position by position:

    Arencibia: He's playing exactly as expected.  No one really anticipated more than a .300-.320 OBP and at best, a .500 SLG.  He could use a bit more playing time but otherwise he has been quietly as expected.

    Lind: He has bounced back and been hot as of late, but unfortunately will now be on the DL.  His BB rate is still disappointing, but at least he is hitting.

    Hill: It might be the end for Hill, but he has the rest of the season to prove he has any value left.  He's a solid defender, though he's no O-Dawg.  The problem with Hill is he shows flashes of brilliance (2009) and then goes back to mediocrity, a la Vernon Wells.  A .323 OBP and .746 OPS for his career.  This is not the Hill I expected - I expected a .290/.350 hitter with 15 HR power, but that plate discipline has all but disappeared through the years.  Unfortunately, who do you get to replace him?

    Escobar: He's still not at the level we expected him to be, but at least his defense gives us something interesting to watch on the field.  He's not our long-term SS and I hope he can bounce back offensively so that he has trade value.

    Encarnacion: Severely disappointing.  He's gone from an .800 OPS guy to whatever this new Encarnacion is - but let's keep in mind that Encarnacion has been a career terrible hitter in April/May, but above .800 OPS in every other month of the year.

    Snider: We'll see him back up with the big club and I'm not going to speculate on swing mechanics or what they're doing.  Maybe he's in AAA and getting extra attention? I don't know the answer but I'm not going to be a conspiracy theorist on it.

    Patterson: Who gave this guy 101 PAs? Seriously though, he's playing slightly above career levels so it's not like you didn't expect him to perform as he has.

    Bautista: One-man show.  Without this guy no one would be going to the games. Barry Bonds-esque 1.296 OPS right now.

    Rivera: Obviously, he's also been terrible, but here is a guy who has a career .668 OPS in April and .698 OPS in May.  He gets hot the rest of the year...so I do expect him to offensively rebound. 

    There isn't really much to say about the hitters.  Davis has not been good, but here is another guy who has been absolutely terrible in his career in the early going.  His career April OPS is .516 and .558 in May.  .701+ the rest of the year.

    As far as the rotation goes, Drabek has been awful outside of his ERA.  1.63 WHIP? Ouch.  Romero and Morrow have been fine (one bad start from Morrow really), Litsch has been okay and the rest aren't worth mentioning. 

    On a positive note, the bullpen has been great for the most part - Dotel is the only person who has looked bad at times.  Rauch, Camp, Frasor, Janssen, Rzep, F-Frank and Villanueva have all been solid.  This is a quality bullpen and without some of their performances, this season would easily have had another 4-5 losses. 

    There are some clear bright spots here and some clear flaws - but people need to calm down.  It's a long season.

    subculture - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#234490) #

    Like Tamra, ChinaFan, TTD, Kelekin (and a few others) have already said, let's get off the ledge and climb back into our comfy seats and enjoy the rest of the season... and perhaps reset our expectations as to what a developing year is supposed to look like.  Heck even the best teams in their best years have periods where their team underperforms, key players look like duds, rookies look overmatched and veterans seem aged and ready to be cut loose.  3 weeks ago Lind looked lost and I'm sure half of you guys thought Rivera would never get another hit.

    Imagine if the Jays had started the season like the Red Sox or Rays... attendance would probably be under 5000 and this site would be a ghost town! 

    Big picture - I think everyone agrees (BB folks, AA and Farrell) that the key to contending (especially consistently contending) is drafting/acquiring good/great young talent, and developing them to the best of their potential.  And if you believe that certain players are developing slower than hoped/expected, then it makes perfect sense to control them for additional year(s) when they are at their most productive periods.

    Perhaps what Snyder needs is not more ML at-bats or even coaching, but simply put more maturity as an individual.  Maybe he needs to improve his mental approach and baseball IQ, as much as anything physical with his swing.  Maybe regardless of whether he is in AAA, the AL East, or playing for the Yomiuri Giants, he was never going to bloom as quickly as his skills seemed to indicate.  Regardless, he is not the only positional prospect in the organization and you have to give others a chance as well.

    David Cooper probably is not going to be all-star, or perhaps even league average 1b.  But can even the most ardent Jays fan really dismiss/discount the years he's played baseball, the adjustments he's had to successfully make to get to this level, the investment the coaches and organization has made in him, and say 'let's get rid of him' ???!!  My observation is that his swing is overly long and loopy, and he commits way too early in many of his swings.  He looks like he's swinging for the fences instead of trying to square up the ball.  But I'm pretty certain that the coaches are seeing what I'm seeing, and much much more than that, and if they're willing to give him more PAs, then I'm willing to be more patient since this IS a development year, and it's not like its his 3rd time up with zero progress.

    I think a lot of the negativity on this thread once Thames, Lawrie, Snyder and others are called up to replace the current placeholders will diminish, but I trust the Jays to know when to bring them up, versus simply responding to the fans desire to promote the young guns.... IMO it's easier to cripple a prospects chances by bringing him up too early, versus waiting an extra year... and why risk it if you can control them a year longer, and spend those $$$ on a key free agent in your contention year(s) ?

    Anders - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#234492) #
    Doesn't this make the case that Reyes has been almost as good as Drabek and Cecil, even without the improvements that the Jays expect him to make?  For a 5th starter, it's not a terrible xFIP.

    Well scoring is horribly depressed. It usually is lower in April due to weather issues, but it seems like it's been even worse than last year, which was I believe the lowest scoring year in the last 10-15, so Reyes' xFIP (4.80) isn't great at all - the AL average ERA is 3.88 (couldn't get average xFIP), although Reyes' xFIP- is 123, which I believe means 23% below average. As for being roughly as good as Drabek and Cecil, well, Reyes has been bad before in the NL East, while Drabek is 4 years younger and has a better pedigree and Cecil is also younger and has put in a league average season in the AL East.

    I think people are generally overeacting. The team has had injuries and has been outscored by 12 runs in 35 games. The starting pitching is promising, and Romero and Morrow (previous starts notwithstanding) both look like strong pitchers long term. Jesse Litsch has pitched reasonably well, Cecil is now doing alright in AAA, and Marc Rzepczynski will hopefully be given a chance to start at some point (I learned to spell his name, dammit). Drabek is erratic, and may not quite be ready for prime time, but the tools are there, and he's young. Reyes, well, the sooner they try him in the bullpen the better. There are several guys on the fringes who probably deserve a shot at some point as well.

    As for the hitters, I agree that it is supremely vexing to see Juan Rivera and Corey Patterson in the lineup (not to mention Mike McCoy, John McDonald, Bengie Molina, Edwin Encarnacion, David Cooper, Rajai Davis, Jayson Nix,) etc but the reality is that half those guys probably won't survive the season. Molina is a backup catcher, Patterson, Rivera and Cooper are playing because of injuries to Jose Bautista and Travis Snider's demotion. That last problem is of the Jays own making, and I agree that it seems rash. Cooper is not a major league player, frankly, and anyone carrying on about how 31 PA aren't enough to tell us this is being disingenius at best. He didn't make our top 30 prospects list, his ZIPS projection at first base was for a .640 OPS and he's hit 2 line drives and 5 infield flies so far. McCoy, McDonald and Nix are playing because of injuries to Hill and Nix. Hill may not regain previous form, but the team is able to extricate themselves at the end of the season if need be. Encarnacion is stuck at third because the team is (sensibly I think) giving Lawrie a little more time in AAA (he's 20), while there are no organizational alternatives to Rajai Davis at this point, and probably won't be until the end of 2012 at the earliest (Gose).

    To me, the issue is the team doesn't seem to have a sense of urgency. When the team was being agressive early and it worked it was golden. Of late they are running into stupid outs, having players like Lind trying to steal, and allowing Corey Patterson on the basepaths (assuredly one of the worst baserunners I have ever seen given his "speed," and yet he was 21/25 last year) and people are frustrated. This year has been written off to some degree as a building year, but with the exception of Lind, who is more re-establishing than building, and Arencibia, the team doesn't seem to have any players that are developing. Thus we end up with the aforementioned pot pourri of mediocrity, which is surely frustrating to fans, as it is to me and I think most of the posters. I don't think that AA has done anything particularly egregious, and I think the team is well positioned for even the second half of this year. As soon as Snider and Lawrie come back up and up, and as soon as Reyes get's ditched, I think this is a pretty good team.
    uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#234493) #
    Here's our statistical lines compared to AL "average lines" according to ESPN, btw:

  • TOR: 35gm, 147r, 469tb, 241k, 122bb, 36sb, 75sb%, 0.69g/f, 25gdp, 35.1ab/hr, .247avg, .318obp, .393slg, .710ops
  • AVG: 35gm, 147r, 457tb, 233k, 113bb, 24sb, 72sb%, 0.83g/f, 27gdp, 41.9ab/hr, .249avg, .318obp, .390slg, .708ops


  • Our hitting so far has been about dead average, leaning to above average. (I bet you're surprised that we walk more than average, eh?) That's with an injury riddled lineup that has yet to all be healthy for even one game this year. Still, an average offense is pretty much what I expected from this team this year, with only the kids developing quickly being a reason to hope for significantly more.

  • TOR: 35gm, 313.1ip, 159r, 10svo, 70sv%, 27sb, 25sb%, .241avg, .326obp, .384slg, .710ops, 7.7k/9, 2.0k/bb, 3.88p/pa, 1.33whip, 4.05era
  • AVG: 35gm, 310.0ip, 147r, 12svo, 66sv%, 24sb, 24sb%, .250avg, .318obp, .390slg, .708ops, 6.7k/9, 2.1k/bb, 3.84p/pa, 1.31whip, 3.88era


  • The pitching has also been pretty much dead average, but trending towards below average. This, IMO, is a dissappointment - I expect better from this staff. It doesn't help that they've been missing arguably their best starter and best reliever most of the year, but this should still be a well above average pitching staff, IMO.

    Our record is a bit harsh so far I think, but at this level of performance finishing much higher than .500 would require quite a bit of luck.On the other hand, if you expect this roster to improve their overall individual performances (either by players reverting back to career norms, or by players being replaced by better internal options), then there's still plenty of reason to hope this can be a pretty good team this year.
    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#234494) #

    Obviously the stroke of genius was in persuading the Angels to take Wells.

    Is there any proof that AA persuaded the Angels to take Wells? These are the same Angels who had an offer for Wells on the table before the Blue Jays gave him his ridiculous contract. And they're the same Angels who lost out on every FA they targeted this offseason and probably thought paying 8m more for Vernon Wells (and owing him 3/63) to play LF was a better alternative to keeping Napoli & Rivera. I'm a little hesitant to just hand over all the credit to AA for this one - sometimes GMs just benefit from the poor decisions of others. There are Indians fans who probably worship at Shapiro's altar for "persuading" Colletti to give him Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, when in all likelihood the thought never crossed Shapiro's mind that he could rip off the Dodgers like that and he just jumped at the opportunity when it was presented to him.

    Paul D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#234495) #
    unless you look for CFs playing LF (CarGo, Wells) you're out of luck.

    Those guys still play LF.  Pretty clear that Snider's not a top LF based on this list plus Crawford and Gardner alone.
    Anders - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#234496) #
    Is there any proof that AA persuaded the Angels to take Wells? These are the same Angels who had an offer for Wells on the table before the Blue Jays gave him his ridiculous contract.

    I'm sure Magpie would have an approrpriately pithy response here, but given that the general reaction has been "this was one of the stupidest trades of the century," for the Angels, I think trying to kick up dirt is pretty weak. It takes two to tango, and Anthopoulos got it done.  
    Mike D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#234497) #

    Is there any proof that AA persuaded the Angels to take Wells?

    Sure.  It's called "the trade that happened."

    Look, I myself am critical of the way the Jays conducted this offseason, but it's simply insane to assume that every good trade a GM makes is an unsolicited, unforced error by a rival GM.  Most trades take days or longer to percolate and there are internal debates on both sides and external negotiations.  You have to at least give credit where it's due.

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#234500) #
    The only persuasion that went on in this deal was Reagins making Anthopolous take on Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli and throw in 5m cash, which the front office denied giving.

    China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#234501) #

    ....The only persuasion that went on in this deal....

    Wow, didn't realize that you were listening on the phone when they were negotiating!  

    Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#234502) #
    unforced error

    The tennis analogy is kind of fun, imagining the Wells' trade as a series of shots across a net.  Here is one scenario:

    Angels:  We are very interested in another early 30s player who was once a great defensive centerfielder, who hits the ball a mile and is aggressive at the plate.  Do you have any of those?

    Jays:  Yeah, I know what you mean about passive hitters.  You can't walk away in the AL East, as they say.  Now, let me take a closer look at our roster.  Well, hi-de-ho.  Lookie here, Wells V.  That might be the ticket.  Won quite a few Gold Gloves in centerfield a few years ago.  Still hits the ball 450 easy to left-centre all the time.  And he's a character guy to boot...

    Angels:  Definitely interested in Wells, but don't you owe him quite a few greenbacks?

    Jays:  He's worth every penny.  Hits the homers.  Plays hard for you every day.  Had a great year last year.  Goes to see sick kids in hospital and helps out underprivileged kids.

    Angels: Well, I suppose we could part with Juan Rivera.  He had some years there.

    Jays:  I dunno.  Juan seems to be awfully slow out there, and his bat doesn't have the same life as it used to.  Is it just me or does he look a little rounder than I remember?

    Angels: Well, how about if we throw in Mike Napoli?

    Jays:  That seems to be fair...I think we've got ourselves a deal. 
    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#234503) #
    Neither were you, and that's been the point all along. This place is too much of an AA lovefest - someone has to balance the scales.
    Kasi - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#234505) #
    AA has enough serious criticism to answer for (1. Free Agent signings, especially Dotel; 2. Trading Napoli for Francisco although I do like FF, it is just that we could really use a bat now; 3. Possibly managerial hiring choice) without making stuff out of thin air to criticize him for. If you want to balance the scales you have far more rational targets to go for.
    John Northey - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#234506) #
    With all the love for Napoli over Francisco around here I thought I'd see what he's done.

    197/354/515 over 82 PA's. 13 games at 1B, 8 at catcher, 3 as a DH.

    Francisco: 2.70 ERA over 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 8 SO

    Weird line for Napoli. Hard to have a sub-200 average and a 350 OBP, 500 Slg. Wonder which part will change, the average or the power or the walks.

    Note: right now not a single person who has started a game for the Jays in 2011 has a 100 ERA+ or better. Yikes.
    China fan - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#234507) #

    ....This place is too much of an AA lovefest - someone has to balance the scales....

    Well, I'm in favor of balance too, and maybe Da Box has been too worshipful of AA at times.  But in general we get a pretty good diversity of viewpoints here.  Things get thrashed out pretty well, with lots of contrasting opinions offered up. 

    In my view, it's the ownership that needs to be criticized, rather than Anthopolous, since it's the ownership that sets the budget and sets the limits on what Anthopolous can do.  Within those limits, I think he's done a pretty good job. 

    The criticisms from the fans, however, are all over the map.  A lot of people are loudly demanding that Anthopolous must promote youth immediately.  But when he decides to promote a young prospect -- when he has a vacancy at DH, looks around Las Vegas and selects a young player for promotion, based on his excellent OPS, excellent OBP and great eye at the plate -- suddenly after 20 plate appearances the fans are attacking him for choosing the wrong guy.  Anthopolous can't win.  No matter what he does, people will find reasons to attack the decisions, unless the team is in first place.

     

     

    MatO - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#234509) #
    AA himself acknowledged that it was the Angels that initiated the deal.  AA's contribution would have been as to how much money it would cost the Jays to have the Angels take Wells and I think he did pretty well there.  However, the Wells deal didn't make the Jays one iota better so I'm far more interested in what AA actually does with all that money than the fact that he made Rogers richer.
    Hodgie - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#234514) #
    John, weird doesn't do Napoli's season justice. Here are some other numbers with his career average in brackets:

    19.5 BB% (11.5), 4.1 LD% (17.4), 49% GB% (36.5), .163 BABIP (.288)

    Of course, the Ballpark in Arlington also seems to suit him so far:

    Home: 48 PA .256/.396/.641

    Away: 34 PA .111/.294/.333

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#234515) #

    However, the Wells deal didn't make the Jays one iota better so I'm far more interested in what AA actually does with all that money than the fact that he made Rogers richer.

    Very well said. And so far he's down a resounding nothing with the money saved, while our ticket prices have gone up. So it goes.

    Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#234516) #
    Um, Jose Bautista would like a word.
    Mike D - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#234517) #

    a resounding nothing with the money saved

    Well, other than to give Bautista $65 million when nobody would have begrudged the team going to arbitration.  I agree with the others that there is enough fair criticism to go around that it's kind of perplexing that one would be so unfair.

    greenfrog - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#234518) #
    I can't believe that anyone is waxing nostalgic for V-Dub. The trade sending him to the Angels was one of the biggest stories of the off-season, with near-universal praise for AA. Vernon's contract had previously been considered unmovable, and the trade - a coup, really - creates a huge amount of flexibility for the rebuilding Jays going forward. Meanwhile, this year, Wells has hit a shockingly-low 183/224/303 and now has a groin injury. The trade looks very, very bad right now for the Halos.

    However, I do think it's important that Jays fans continue to scrutinize the team's payroll. The priorities right now should be spending on the draft, international FAs, and scouting. But eventually the team will need to spend more on major-league talent to compete in the AL East. At that point, will Rogers step up, or plead poverty?
    Moe - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#234519) #
    Sometimes deals look great at the time but don't work out.  If FF becomes a shot-down closer, the deal works great for the Jays; if he he doesn't, the Jays loose.  No big deal.  At the time, the Jays didn't think they needed Napoli and they saw value in FF, so they made the deal.  You may not agree but this deal hardly matters long term.

    For those of you who were asking to spend more money, the question is on whom?  The Jays did take a risk with Bautista and it seems it works out.  But at the time it was a big risk and some (including myself) were skeptical.  What matters is that the Jays spend in the future to keep the players they want to keep and don't have to let big ticket FAs walk because of money.  Those are the deals you worry about, not some upper-midlevel FA signings, they rarely work out too well. 

    As for Snider and super-two: he is right on the margin, so it may have factored into the decision.  But if he had hit well, he would have not been sent down, so he opened that door himself.  Furthermore, if it's only about service time, he will be back up in two weeks.  Loosing two weeks of ABs is not going to kill his development.  And if they don't call him back up shortly, you know it's for real.

    Btw, for Cecil there is also another reason:  if he is really injured and in the majors when he hits the DL, he is burning service time (see Strassburg).  However, if he hits the DL now, the clock is not ticking, iirc.


    Really, I don't know what many of you are complaining about? This was supposed to be a building year, so some bad performances were to be expected.  Most "experts" said the Jays would be dead last in the AL East, so really, they are doing ok.  As someone said above, young pitchers break your heart. And young hitters have their issues too, adjusting to the majors. 
    Should the Jays not play as many veterans? I don't know, but outside of Snider there isn't really anyone down who is missing up in the majors.  If they had called up Thames et al. and they were struggling,  you guys would be complaining that the Jays are wasting their service time and that they are overmatched and need more seasoning. 



    uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#234520) #
    I think it's hard to argue that AA deserves more criticism than praise when he's managed to take a bottom-feeding farm system and turn it into an elite one, shed major salary and committments drastically increase roster flexibility, all while fielding a significantly better on-field product so far than what he inherited.

    As for the skepticism about Rogers' willingness to spend - the last time a GM asked them for money, they showed him the money. I can only assume that when AA asks them for the money, they will show it to him as well.

    AA chose not to go after any of the big free agents this year - which seems like a pretty good idea right now, unless you think the Crawford, Dunn, and Werth signings are turning out well for their teams.

    AA showed Bautista the money when he didn't have to.

    I don't see much reason not to believe AA's story that they will spend when they think the opportunity is right.

    MatO - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#234521) #

    If FF becomes a shot-down closer

    Many a Jays fan pondered doing just that with Joey McLaughlin back in the day.

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#234522) #
    If the size of Jose Bautista's extension had anything to do with Vernon Wells' departure we have bigger problems ahead than I realized.
    MatO - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#234523) #

    managed to take a bottom-feeding farm system and turn it into an elite one

    Sure, when you trade your two best starting pitchers for prospects and have the benefit of three extra draft picks because management, for some reason, didn't feel like spending money the previous season, I'd hope so.

    Moe - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#234524) #
    Sure, when you trade your two best starting pitchers for prospects and have the benefit of three extra draft picks because management, for some reason, didn't feel like spending money the previous season, I'd hope so.

    Judging from the performance of the unsigned picks so far, drawing the line wasn't that bad of a decision.  And looking at CLE, you can trade two CY winners in back-to-back seasons and still not have a top-ranked system. 


    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#234525) #

    I think it's hard to argue that AA deserves more criticism than praise when he's managed to take a bottom-feeding farm system and turn it into an elite one, shed major salary and committments drastically increase roster flexibility, all while fielding a significantly better on-field product so far than what he inherited. 

    The on-field product isn't better (let alone anywhere close to significantly), and excuse me for not being so excited about Anthopolous' ability to turn Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, and 6m into Kyle Drabek, Brett Lawrie, Travis D'Arnaud, and Anthony Gose.

    92-93 - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#234526) #
    Cleveland's system was very highly regarded entering the 2010 season.
    uglyone - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#234527) #
    The Jays are 100-97 (.508) under AA. The team he inherited went 75-87 (.463) the year prior.

    He's turned a very neat trick of managing to improve the team on the field even while turning a bottom-5 system into a top-5 system, and getting rid of all major contract issues at the same time.

    All in just over a year.

    Overall, he deserves more praise than criticism. This doesn't mean he doesn't deserve criticism, but it certainly shouldn't be "even steven" with the praise.
    Lylemcr - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#234530) #

    In the offseason, we were designing the parade route, now we are ready to burn management at the stake.

    I don't have any illusion of a good team this year. 

    AA has shown in the past to only do moves to build for the future.  It is going to be a long year, but I am going to grin an bear it.  It is not this year I am worried about.

    Kelekin - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#234532) #
    While I was trying to mostly be a voice of reason in this topic, the one criticism I will agree with is the return for our top starting pitchers.  Marcum's return is a bit more fair - but usually it would be Lawrie and say a B-Level prospect.  But really, we traded away the -best- (and let's be realistic, he is the best - 6.5 to 7 WAR every year for the last 3) pitcher in baseball and we couldn't even pry away a guy (Gose) that got traded in a package for Oswalt. 

    That's my single HUGE criticism.  I don't trust guys that are politicians that tell you what you want to hear and AA is no different, and that is why you always try to refrain from having emotional connections with your GM. =p Anyway, if we could all chill out, that'd be pretty cool.
    Dez - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#234534) #
    Kelekin, your assumption is that AA is not lying when he says he wanted Gose all along. I don't really believe that he would have taken Gose over Taylor, all else being equal. Taylor had more value than Gose at the time he was traded. Gose's stock only rose recently..

    BTW everyone, don't forget there is a live chat on this site!
    cybercavalier - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#234535) #
    there are no organizational alternatives to Rajai Davis at this point, and probably won't be until the end of 2012 at the earliest (Gose).

    Correct. However I would view the situation as a window for testing some highly touted prospect who for one reason or another had not delivered result in ML. After skimming through the depth charts of each MLB team, is getting Felix Pie from the O's a good acquisition? Pie's last transaction was his trade from the Cubs for Hank Williamson and Garret Olson. Neither of the latter two players have been major contributors to the Cubs since that trade so the price to the Jays getting Pie would be not much. Actually it is more or less the same reasoning for getting Davis, having Davis and Pie is better than Davis, Patterson, Podsenik and Wise.
    bpoz - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#234536) #
    Our pen's results so far are considered very good by all the measurements available. Is this correct?

    I have an overall good opinion in our SPs, to a count of 8 ie adding Cecil, Mills and Zep/minor leaguer by June 30. IMO Litsch is using his pitching smarts to achieve success, I believe he is not yet as fine in his control due to the TJ. I expected growing pains for Drabek this year, but IMO we will cash in big time next year and maybe better after that. JoJo Reyes will get better IMO, we fans have to pay with patience, but Reyes has the tough job of trying to stay positive and get confidence with what he is doing right. He deserved a win against TB, which would have helped his confidence. IMO his spirit has to be low now and a little success and belief in himself and his stuff will produce results.
    IMO Rivera, Patterson and 2011 3rd basemen so far are temporary, they are not blocking anyone. However I think Rivera will sneak up on us, his results will be at a level where Thames will not be able to match right away. Still if Bautista & Snider had been able to play everyday then Rivera has no ABs available. If at the All Star break Rivera with a 260 BA & 10 Hr, could be traded I suppose.
    Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#234541) #
    One out and a batter who is doing well lately (in comparison to others) at the plate, a brain-dead Rajai Davis tries to steal home.   Wait two pitches and you could trot home.   The main problem with this team is being  stupid, no one thinks!   The Bullpen is good, the only problem is we need them to be perfect.   The Starters are underachieving, to put it mildly, their only problem is trying to be more than they are (go to the Fan 590 website, click on the Jeff Blair Show, Greg Zaun interview or  May10 Edition of The Jeff Blair Show (10am hour) , listen to his analysis of Reyes).   Then you have Bautista, Lind and Escobar with a whole bunch of stupid.   This may get worse before it gets better.
    TamRa - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#234542) #
    This was supposed to be a year of rebuilding. Lots of exciting young prospects. So far we have been treated to a team full of older retreads that play the game very poorly while the future of the team gets jerked around.
    Bad for the prospects, bad for the blue jays and bad for the fans. Very disappointing 1st month and now totally confused as to what the plan really is.


    Hyperbole.

    "lots of exciting young prospects"


    Which? Review the various discussions of the coming year and tell us how many rookies were expected to play more than a fringe role this year. That would be 3. JPA, and Drabek to start and eventually Lawrie. Both of the first two are here and doing their thing and third not being "jerk around"

    One can point to Snider and Cecil,  but whatever one thinks of the demotions, the team wouldn't be winning more ball games with them working out their issues in the majors.

    "a team full of older retreads that play the game very poorly"

    Okay, we'll leave Lind and Bautista out of this since they are not playing poorly, and JPA is neither playing poorly or a veteran.
     That leaves Hill and Escobar - neither "veteran retreads" in the sense you mean, nor are the blocking promising younger players - Davis who's been hurt most of the year - and Rivera and EE who can indeed be complained about. Sure you got a lot of Patterson but that's a result of injury, which is too be expected - he's done more than your typical 4th outfielder does (although I'm not a fan).

    So you have two guys to gripe about - that's not "a team full" - and unless you want to use a 24 year old outfielder as a regular DH, neither of then are holding back a player who's obviously ready to rock (Thames could play LF until Snider got back but then he's a DH).

    What these men are - are stopgaps. When he's ready, Lawrie will be at 3B and EE will be DHing (which he probably will when Nix returns anyway) or gone.  If he's not gone Nix probably will be. When Snider gets back, Rivera will be what he was in LA - a 4th outfielder and Patterson will hopefully get even less playing time (or the equally unimpressive Podsednick)

    So the short analysis is you are seeing too much of Rivera and/or Patterson are out there too much because (a) Davis got hurt; (b) Lawrie ain't ready; (c) and there was a questionable decision regarding Snider.

    On pitching, the bullpen has been as good as any in the league, Romero and Morrow and Litsch are fine and Drabek is exactly what we thought we were getting.
    Cecil clearly earned his demotion and I'm not sure what anyone else expected. In his absence we've seen, some would say, too much JoJo. but we're not seeing too much JoJo at Cecil's expense, they are seperate issues.

    I don't think there are any big "the future is getting jerked around" issues on the pitching staff beyond Zep being in the pen while they work through the JoJo obsession.

    In other words - this "team full of ugly veterans" comes down to two questionable choices, and a bunch of circumstances.

    TamRa - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#234543) #
    amending the above to reiterate my continued disdain for Dotel, both the signing and the usage. When I say "the bullpen is fine" I mean "fine (except Dotel)
    robertdudek - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#234544) #
    Let me just clarify for those who are reading-comprehension challenged: I like the job AA has done, but I am not a fanboy and I will voice my criticism when I feel it appropriate.

    The problems have to do with the 4 players I mentioned in the article, as well as the handling of Snider, which I think has been bungled for 2 plus years.

    I don't really have a problem with the rotation - I think it will be fine and I think Cecil is also in the minors for service time reasons (honestly, i don't regard it as controversial - it's standard practice, though teams don't admit it because it sends the "wrong" message to the unwashed masses).

    I think Arencibia has been better than I hoped, especially defensively. I think BA's ranking him the #8 prospect in the organisation  when he was about to become our everyday catcher was a big fat joke. I think Molina should get one less start a week at this point, because it would mean JP gets one MORE and that's what I want to see.

    I do see Patterson and EE as being mistake-prone and otherwise lackadaisical in their approaches. That is galling because they are supposed to be seasoned veterans. Rajai Davis is a better player than Patterson (as is Podsednik - why isn't he here yet?) and though he is a mediocre defensive centerfielder he's the best we have right now.

    As far as the farm is concerned. I understand that they have to make sure Lawrie isn't a super two down the road (honestly can he be any worse defensively at 3B than EE?). I think Eric Thames is an exciting player and I'd like to see him here for a cup of coffee instead of the non-prospect Cooper. Brad Mills might be worth a look too.

    The crux of it all is that when you are in rebuilding mode there will be lots of tough stretches of poor play. The only thing that ameliorates the frustrations are to know that you are watching the future of the team going through their growing pains. I want more young players. I wouldn't object if the Jays lost 100 games this year, so long as they did it with young players.

    TamRa - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#234545) #
    Two conclusions:  his knack for scraping up bargain-bin talent is not nearly as shrewd as that of his predecessor;

    Really? Even as one with a reputation as a JP defender  - I find that an odd statement. Villianueva (an acquisition I wasn't enthusiastic about) has been an excellent "bottom feeder" move. Nix, another guy I expect to fall-back, impressed us. Gonzalez and Buck wowed everyone last year (and brought us more younger talent). Dotel has been poor, but Rauch has been fine.

    Rivera isn't a guy we persued, we're stuck with him as pennence for losing Wells; Davis has been hurt too much for a fair evaluation. Patterson? You are perhaps forgetting Mencherson?

    Looking back at JP you can of course compliment Downs, Tallet, Scutaro and others - but you have to balance that against Wilkerson, Mench, Tam, Sturtze, Lightenberg, and many many more. I don't have time now to do a comparative study but I think their rates of success are comparable to each other and to good GM's around the league. The nature of (relatively) low priced deals (say in the $5 mil range or less) is that some will make ou look very good and some will be just ok and some will be terribly embarassing in hindsight.

     and it might have been smarter to spend $10-million on one good free-agent, rather than five mediocre acquisitions.

    Such as?

    Who's the $10 mil-ish player we could have had which played one of the available positions? And hows that fella doing now?

    Crack open the piggy bank and sign Adam Dunn as many wanted...you noticed how Dunn is hitting right now? How many of the naysayers here would be applying hindsight to the decision of AA had signed him and pronouncing judgment after 35 games?

    ----------------------------
    If the size of Jose Bautista's extension had anything to do with Vernon Wells' departure we have bigger problems ahead than I realized.


    That's having it both ways - He spent money. The complaint was "he didn't spend money" but - he spent money. It's not necessary to make the connection between his contract and Wells for that to be true.

    One can't logically say "he'll impress me when he spends some money" and then say in the next breath "I mean besides THAT money which he did spend"
    TamRa - Tuesday, May 10 2011 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#234546) #
    two other thoughts:

    Everyone keeps saying "service time" and Super two" - word: neither will be a concern by the time those players reach that point, the next CBA will, all observers agree, do away with "super two"

    Second - why is everyone calling Davis a mediocre defender? IIRC he came to town with a gaudy rep as a defender, it was the bat that was questioned.


    The_Game - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#234549) #
    92-93 owned this thread, though you can't blame AA for trading Roy Halladay for prospects. You can only really blame Rogers not spending money to make the Jays a real contender...that's what let him get away.
    China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:43 AM EDT (#234554) #
    TamRa, I agree with you about Villanueva, Gonzalez and Buck.  Those are good points.  Nix -- we'll wait and see, it's a bit early to judge, especially since his defence seems a little questionable.  And even Davis and Patterson -- to be fair, I should wait and see by the end of the season how they've done.  As for Encarnacion -- I think we've seen enough by now.  It's been two years of this.
    bpoz - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#234557) #
    TamRa, Your guesses/research/opinion on the future CBA are a bonus to me. I am really wondering about how/if the FA comp rules will change. Do you know what the rumors are saying?
    Jonny German - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#234558) #
    The best and worst of Eddie E (still unstuck in time):

    August 2009 - .478 OPS in 63 PA
    June 2010 - .598 OPS in 56 PA
    Mar/Apr 2011 - .647 OPS in 78 PA

    Sept/Oct 2009 - .911 OPS in 110 PA
    Sept/Oct 2010 - .939 OPS in 61 PA
    May 2010 - 1.033 OPS in 48 PA
    Kasi - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#234565) #
    Don't understand this urge to rush everything. Plenty of prospects have been ruined or setback several years by rushing them too quickly. I don't want AA to bring a lot of people up, have them struggle and be set back and in the process lose even more games. That is a lose-lose proposition all around for me. Bring people up when they are ready.

    Lawrie is not. He still needs to learn to take a walk. Plus his defense is always a work in progress. Thames is more ready, but he needs a space opened for him when Snider comes back. He honestly might be more ready now than Snider though. Snider still is playing like a slap hitter. Where has his power gone? Cooper is fine as a fill in til one of the above 2 get ready. He unlike them has the plate discipline if not the upside.

    I would like to see Mills get another shot. He always seems to do well in Vegas, and he's had a couple solid starts in the bigs.

    Honestly don't see much that can be done about the fillins we got at the major league level. No one we have in the minors is good enough or ready to replace them yet.
    uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#234575) #
    While I was trying to mostly be a voice of reason in this topic, the one criticism I will agree with is the return for our top starting pitchers. Marcum's return is a bit more fair - but usually it would be Lawrie and say a B-Level prospect. But really, we traded away the -best- (and let's be realistic, he is the best - 6.5 to 7 WAR every year for the last 3) pitcher in baseball and we couldn't even pry away a guy (Gose) that got traded in a package for Oswalt.

    I think everyone agrees that the return for Roy wasn't good enough, but I think we also agree that AA was backed into a serious corner by both Roy's trade demand and him pretty much deciding that the Phillies were the only team he was going to. I think we got 1 A prospect and 2 B prospects, when IMO a guy like Roy deserved more like 2 A and 2-3 B prospects. That being said, Drabek has surprised me with his stuff, and his upside seems to be much better than I thought it was, at least.

    orrect. However I would view the situation as a window for testing some highly touted prospect who for one reason or another had not delivered result in ML. After skimming through the depth charts of each MLB team, is getting Felix Pie from the O's a good acquisition? Pie's last transaction was his trade from the Cubs for Hank Williamson and Garret Olson. Neither of the latter two players have been major contributors to the Cubs since that trade so the price to the Jays getting Pie would be not much. Actually it is more or less the same reasoning for getting Davis, having Davis and Pie is better than Davis, Patterson, Podsenik and Wise.

    Isn't Pie the exact same player as Patterson (but without the speed), just a few years younger? Both former top prospects with impressive skillsets but no head for the game?

  • Felix Pie (26): 909pa, 17/23sb, .257/.305/.395/.700, 83ops+, .307woba, 81wRC+, 7.3uzr/150 (cf)
  • Patterson (31): 4204pa, 209/268sb, .253/.292/.405/.697, 80ops+, .305woba, 81wRC+, 8.7uzr/150 (cf)


  • I think Arencibia has been better than I hoped, especially defensively. I think BA's ranking him the #8 prospect in the organisation when he was about to become our everyday catcher was a big fat joke.

    JPA not cracking BA's top-100 was always ridiculous. A 24 year old who was arguably the best hitter in minor league baseball last year, and who played able defense at a premium position, with only one poor year on his prospect resume. Just silly.
    aaforpm - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#234579) #
    Most of the people on here are overreacting - it's early and the pitching hasn't been that bad aside from some bad starts that have skewed some ERAs.

    Even if the team had spent money on FAs this year we still wouldn't have been competitive at this point.  The problem is not that we did not bring in big FAs but thus far the core has not performed.  Snider, Cecil, Hill were going to be in the lineup/rotation regardless, and even if he had a couple of names like Vladimir Guerrero or Marcum (if he hadn't been traded) on the team we still wouldn't be much more than a .500 team today.....and we wouldn't have a high ceiling third baseman tearing up AAA at 21 years old. 

    Furthermore, it was our fault if we had false hopes for EE  becoming the next Bautista.  Just because Bautista can have a breakout season it doesn't mean that every other Blue Jay will do the same.   Plus, the fact that ALMOST EVERYONE assumed that Snider was going to be a monster was overly optimistic

    Be patient, it's a long season

    Chuck - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#234586) #

    Something interesting:

    Yeah, that's what the Jays are missing, a good relief pitcher.

    bpoz - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#234594) #
    I agree with Richard SS & Chuck about Taylor B. Looking at the link that you provided, I see that he was quite good before the injury and I calculated 2 minor league options remaining.

    Nobody offered him Arb due to his $1 mil 2010 salary. He was signed as a FA for $600,000. Since he was Jay's property AA probably tried for him at the lower salary as well.
    If Taylor B & his agent think he is a good enough pitcher then you turn down more $ from the Jays (if offered) and sign with someone 1) Not in the tough AL East 2) A weak team where your chances are better for a ML spot.
    So he has successfully created a good opportunity for himself.

    Now his 2011 performance if good should get him more $ in 2012. Going deeper, he is 2012 Arb eligible, but based on $600,000
    Now it becomes too complicated for me and I am over whelmed. How much can he ask for in Arb and he may want to be a SP again.
    Hodgie - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#234605) #
    I think we got 1 A prospect and 2 B prospects, when IMO a guy like Roy deserved more like 2 A and 2-3 B prospects.

    Not to be contrary just for the sake of it but I don't agree that the team didn't get enough for Roy. Of course we believe that he should have brought back a greater return but what recent trade for an ace pitcher has brought back commensurate value? Certainly not any of the 3 Cliff Lee trades, nor the Sabbathia or Santana trades. Not even the ultimate over-pay trades of Bedard and Haren brought back that kind of a haul. Perhaps I am missing some obvious examples but the recent precedent for more just doesn't seem to be there.

    uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#234614) #
    I think Sabathia got a similar package while being just a two month rental with the clear intention of going FA.
    Moe - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#234615) #
    I think we got 1 A prospect and 2 B prospects, when IMO a guy like Roy deserved more like 2 A and 2-3 B prospects.

    Roy had a no trade clause and basically limited the set of potential suitors greatly.  If I recall correctly, it was going to be PHL or no one if the Jays didn't wanted to have him in the AL East.  Given that, AA did quite well.  And at the time, the 2 B prospects were more regarded as B+. Everyone is holding on to prospects now to the point that they are overvalued, imo. 

    If anything, I thought AA could have gotten a bit more for Marcum than just one A prospect.  Especially considering that he could deal with all teams and not just the Brewers at that time.



    uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#234618) #
    Marcum's a tough call. After all, he was a 29 year old with significant injury history (and a delivery with injury risk going forward) who had only ever pitched even 160 innings ONCE in his career, and who had missed the entire 2009 season. Lots of risk involved in acquiring him. Meanwhile, Lawrie is starting to look like one of those rare prospects that are pretty much impossible to trade for unless you're trading a superstar.

    And of course, Marcum has an 87mph fastball, which will always devalue him fairly or not.
    bpoz - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#234623) #
    I guess it will take 3-5 years for results, but how about comparing the packages for Marcum, Grienke and Garza. I mean based on current 2010 off season information. They are all in the NL Central and all traded in the same off season.
    Marcum & Garza are both making the same $ but Greinke is getting more than twice the $ and therefore more is expected.
    Chuck - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#234624) #

    I agree with Richard SS & Chuck about Taylor B.

    I was being sarcastic. The team has already cornered the market on relief pitchers.

    China fan - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#234625) #

    In the lineup tonight, McDonald and Cooper are at 3B and 1B respectively, while Encarnacion is riding the bench.  Tells us all we need to know about EE's disappointing season.

    uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#234627) #
    On the subject of AA's performance comes this timely article from SI this afternoon:

    Six-week snapshot says Blue Jays made best winter moves so far

    The trade of Wells heads the early list of the best moves of the winter so far:

  • 1. The Blue Jays send Wells and $5 million to the Angels for catcher Mike Napoli.
  • 2. Blue Jays sign Jose Bautista to a $65-million, five-year contract extension.


  • Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/05/11/best.winter.moves/index.html#ixzz1M4yCFjpa
    Hodgie - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#234629) #
    I think Sabathia got a similar package while being just a two month rental with the clear intention of going FA.

    John Sickels at the very least would disagree. Sickels graded the prospects Cleveland received at the time as follows:

    • 1B/OF Laporta B+ Age 24
    • OF Brantley C+ Age 22
    • RP Bryson C+ Age 22
    • RP Jackson Age 26(not a prospect, thrown 8.2IP in MLB from 2009-2001)
    Compare with his grades of the Jays trio:
    • SP Drabek B+ Age 22
    • C d'Arnaud B Age 21
    • OF Taylor B+ Age 24
    Not saying that Sickels is the definitive authority but those packages do not look very similar to me and despite the possible rental, Cleveland had more than one team to negotiate with.
    92-93 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#234631) #
    You are severely discounting the value of 4 more months of Halladay, the long term extension, and the 6m the Blue Jays sent the Phillies way.
    uglyone - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#234632) #
    looks like you're right. good call.

    how about Teixeira's trade package?
    Hodgie - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#234635) #
    You are severely discounting the value of 4 more months of Halladay, the long term extension, and the 6m the Blue Jays sent the Phillies way.

    I could very well be, although if you are going to factor that into the equation then to be fair the Brewers received 2 months of Sabbathia, increased playoff odds AND the two compensation picks Milwaukee received for eventually losing Sabbathia which Victor Wang would argue are also not without significant value.

    Hodgie - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#234637) #
    how about Teixeira's trade package

    I had thought about that given the outrageous amount of talent Atlanta surrendered but shied away and tried to restrict it to recent trades of highly regarded pitchers to get a more apples to apples comparison. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if I have missed an obvious exception, but my impression is that pitching talent of this magnitude just does not return an equal value on the trade market.

    92-93 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#234648) #
    The compensation picks aren't a factor unless you assume Halladay's career will derail before 2014. The Phillies will extract value from Halladay's departure as well.
    AWeb - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#234649) #
    It's been mentioned upthread, but I'm piling on here, despite the big win - Patterson is the worst baserunner I can remember watching. I don't know if this is just something that's gotten inside his head and it keeps getting worse at this point, but tonight, he made it to second base on a ball off the top of the wall, after starting on first.  Has he always been this bad? It's not easy to make several baserunning mistakes every week, but he could have cost the Jays a win tonight...

    Moe - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#234650) #
    The compensation picks aren't a factor unless you assume Halladay's career will derail before 2014. The Phillies will extract value from Halladay's departure as well.

    They are.  2014 is a long way into the future and there is no way of knowing what might happen.  The system could be gone by then or Halladay could not be effective enough to offer him arbitration (remember, arbitration works of his last salary which means he has to be worth 20m).  And there is discounting. 

    I give you the 6m, but iirc there was no negotiation window for the extension, so that one doesn't count.  Also, Sabathia was not a deadline deal. He was traded earlier in the season exactly because that would give a higher return.

    Honestly, the overall consensus at the time was the AA did about as well as he could at the time.  He basically had the option to keep Halladay and take the picks or trade him to the Phillies. You can't expect a Tex type return (which was also for 1.5 seasons and at the time prospect values were not quite as crazy high as they are now) in that situation.  Just because some of you are upset that AA didn't offer a big contract for Dunn and instead signed EE for cheap or is not rushing prospects -- for which he would then be criticized by the same people who know call for their call-up -- doesn't mean you should now be going after the haul in the Halladay deal.

    Hodgie - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#234652) #
    I have to agree with Moe, the picks are absolutely a factor in my mind. The compensation picks were the fall back position for the Brewers in the event they could not come to terms on an extension with Sabbathia. They were tangible assets that were acquired by Milwaukee as a direct result of the trade. Any further compensation that Philadelphia realizes from the trade is completely hypothetical in nature, may not come to pass at all and should not be used to invalidate the extra value that the Brewers received.
    92-93 - Wednesday, May 11 2011 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#234653) #

    There was most definitely a negotiating window for the extension, which was announced before the physicals came through. The Phillies were trading for an insanely good contract for them - 4 years of the best pitcher in baseball, structured as 9-20-20-20 with more options.

    Even if the compensation system is entirely scrapped (unlikely) and the Phillies don't want to offer Halladay arbitration, you seem to be forgetting that a player can be traded. The Phillies could probably move Halladay right now for a bigger haul than the Blue Jays got for him. That has far more value than Sabathia's compensation picks.

    And you seem to be misinterpreting the intent here - nobody is going after the Halladay haul. We are just simply pointing out that all this credit AA is getting for the farm system's resurgence in Baseball America's eyes has little to do with Anthopolous himself.

    Hodgie - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#234655) #
    If I am forgetting that a player can be traded, you seem to be forgetting that a player may just retire with the team he is on. My only point is no-one knows what will happen so the trade can only be evaluated on the actual premise that it was made on. Fair point about the intent although the actual comment I was responding to was that everyone agreed that Anthopolous should have gotten more for Halladay. As for his role in the resurgence of the farm system, while the Halladay and Marcum trades brought the top prospects into the Jays system, one of the reasons why the farm system is being lauded around baseball is due to it's depth, something that Anthopolous has definitely played a big role in.

    The perils of being in charge, too much credit when things go right and too much blame when they don't.

    92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#234657) #

    And if he retires after signing another extension, the Phillies got even MORE value than just 4 years. And if you mean to say that he might retire before his current contract is up - well then CC Sabathia could have retired, died, or needed TJ surgery, and not been offered arbitration. If you are going to factor in the potential value from Sabathia's departure, you must also factor in the potential value from Halladay's. That one appears closer in time doesn't matter.

    The depth is also from Ricciardi. Nobody is that high yet on Adonis Cardona, Gabriel Cenas, and Adeiny Hechavarria, his international signings, and the guy he went way overslot on (Thon) hasn't been heard from yet.

    TamRa - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 04:30 AM EDT (#234660) #
    TamRa, Your guesses/research/opinion on the future CBA are a bonus to me. I am really wondering about how/if the FA comp rules will change. Do you know what the rumors are saying?

    I've no idea. On the Super Two busines, I'm just repeating what people like KLaw state confidently when someone asked them about it (usually on Twitter)

    ________________

    Been thinking about this thread the last few hours. all the deep dark depression and excessive misery.

    You have two teams - one was said to be as good as any in the history of the 100+ year old storied franchise, the other said to be still slogging through a re-tool that might, if everything broke right, hang around the fringes of the race for a while.

    Those two teams, tonight, have exactly the same record.

    the "lesser" team has scored more runs, allowed fewer, and and has played a slightly tougher schedule; they've pitched better and hit almost exactly as well.

    Oh, and the "better" team has their eight regular starters in the field with 31 or more games played apiece, the "lesser" team has...TWO.

    and the icing on the cake, one of these teams has a payroll which is about 43% of that of the other.

    Compare and contrast.

    92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#234667) #

    If you think this thread is full of deep dark depression and excessive misery I suggest you go read a Sons of Sam Horn game thread from this series.

    People are allowed to point out the bad things players & front offices do without giving off the impression we are about to jump off the ledge because the team is underperforming expectations. It isn't and we know that. But there's still a lot out there we're seeing that we don't necessarily agree with.

    Hodgie - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#234670) #
    I guess I don't see how you can have it both ways though if you want to assign extra value to Philadelphia for signing Halladay to an extension. The Brewers were either going to have Sabbathia long term, or the compensation picks. That value was as real as the Halladay extension and was absolutely a factor in the decision to make the trade. Any future value for either is entirely hypothetical in nature. Hell, the two picks could turn out to be the next Pujols or Halladay for all we know.

    As for attributing the depth of the system solely to Ricciardi that seems to go against what Sickels, Fangraphs and Baseball America seem to believe. Taking a quick look at their prospect rankings for Toronto, here is the ratio of top prospects Anthopolous has acquired through trade, international signings and the draft as evaluated by each:

    • Baseball America 7/10
    • John Sickels 13/24
    • Fangraphs 15/30
    Ricciardi absolutely deserves credit but it is impressive how many of Anthopolous' players are on each of those lists after only one draft and two off-seasons. Neither's contributions should be dismissed.
    Anders - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#234673) #

    And you seem to be misinterpreting the intent here - nobody is going after the Halladay haul. We are just simply pointing out that all this credit AA is getting for the farm system's resurgence in Baseball America's eyes has little to do with Anthopolous himself.

    I think Moe has been hitting the nail on the head here generally, but I don't understand the opinion that this success is not attributable to Anthopoulos. In some senses, every decision the organization makes either reflects well or poorly on AA and is attributable to him. He's the guy in charge. He netted picks and players out of Alex Gonzalez, John Buck, Miguel Olivo, he got the organization to spend I believe more money than they ever had in last years draft (when JP couldn't even sign his draft picks at the end- which may be a blessing, as those guys all look like they've flamed out), he got the organization to spend more money internationally. He's the one that oversaw the drafts, even if the scouting director is doing the heavy lifting. If it was real easy to go from a bottom 5 system to a top 5 system in 2 years, everyone would do it.

    92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#234674) #

    Any future value for either is entirely hypothetical in nature.

    Exactly, which is why it shouldn't factor heavily into either side.

    Please stop giving AA credit for turning Halladay, Marcum, and 6m into Drabek, Gose, Lawrie, and D'Arnaud. I doubt there's even a commenter on Batter's Box who WOULDN'T have ended up with 4 guys on the Blue Jays top 10 prospects list had they traded that package with input from the rest of the front office.

    When I look at the 2010 Batter's Box Top 30, I give credit to Anthopolous for exactly 1 player - Adeiny Hechavarria. Anybody else you are attributing to him either came through the draft, where of course you are going to back your way into Top 30 talent, or through trading away someone from the Ricciardi era. And as I've pointed out already, the players AA has spent money on have done nothing to impress anyone yet.

    92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#234676) #

    when JP couldn't even sign his draft picks at the end

    Right, because it wasn't Paul Beeston who was solely responsible for the James Paxton situation. I love this statement because it proves that when there's a bias, it will always manifest itself. When it's convenient for the anti-JP crowd, the draft was all his fault. When it's inconvenient for them (because he may have found later round gems), JP has little input in anything past the first round.

    92-93 - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#234677) #

    he got the organization to spend more money internationally.

    He also got the organization to cut 40% off its payroll. Those two facts probably have a lot to do with eachother.

    Anders - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#234680) #
    He also got the organization to cut 40% off its payroll. Those two facts probably have a lot to do with eachother.

    But he doesn't get credit for this, because there's no proof he was the one that suggested this deal.
    uglyone - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#234683) #
    If you think this thread is full of deep dark depression and excessive misery I suggest you go read a Sons of Sam Horn game thread from this series.

    hey, we'd have every reason to be superbly pissed off too if our roster had this record while costing $160m (locked in to longterm contracts with very little roster flexibility going forward) with one of the oldest rosters in the league, and with a ravaged farm system to boot.
    bpoz - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#234702) #
    If this is an argument then I would like to participate by picking sides on points that I strongly agree with. If its a discussion then I have an opinion & questions.
    So the points I agree with are:-
    1) I feel draft picks are valuable.
    Also I am glad you cannot trade draft picks because AA would acquire them big time eg IMO 1 D McGuire for a A Sanchez + Noah S, and also more Marcum type deals ie if Marcum won't sign long term on AA's terms then get picks for him. And IMO JP would be trading picks for immediate help. IMO no T Snider, Ahrens, Jackson, Romero but we would get Zep, Janssen etc and JPA & Cecil may have dropped to 2nd round.
    2)IMO JP went expensive FA, with luck it could have worked. He fought for & won Burnett & BJ Ryan and probably others. Also last minute B Molina & late signing F Thomas just sort of fell into his lap.
    3)IMO AA does not like expensive FAs... yet. But he is spending on draft picks & Intl FAs. IMO he does not like to be locked in, Bautista gave him/the team a deadline or so I read, so someone decided to do the Bautista deal within the deadline. AA is unusual, he has his own Arb deadline & rules, as well, he keeps a lot to himself. Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think he has given no trade clauses to anyone.

    The owners gave JP a 3 year $210mil budget. Good or bad luck happens but you have to produce enough or you get fired.
    AA has no budget, but IMO there are expectations/time frame of some sort from the team or AA could be gone. There is a budget and AA has said it is flexible I think. He should keep it a secret IMO so that the press & fans don't bug him. He got high ceiling talent in Escobar, Lawrie, Morrow & Gose while under no restrictions. If enough high ceiling talent develops then IMO that could lead to winning.
    Alex Obal - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#234703) #
    I don't have much to add here on either side - passing precise aggregate judgement on 18 months of a GM's work, whatever - except this again:

    Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos. Not Anthopolous. It's. Not. An. Adjective. Anthopoulos. If you're not sure, just call him AA. Murray Chass has my back on this, so righteous indignation is justified. Nyah.

    Thank you.
    Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2011 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#234704) #
    And if you get it wrong again, there's a good length of the Danforth which will become a no-go zone for you. That would be a mighty shame, so don't let it happen!
    hypobole - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#234705) #

    As per the original post asking for our gripes; my biggest gripe has to be gripers who excessively gripe.

    (My other 50 gripes will be on posts to follow)

     

    Matthew E - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#234709) #
    Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos. Not Anthopolous. It's. Not. An. Adjective. Anthopoulos.

    Although, if he leads the Jays to a World Series, we may have to rename Toronto "Anthopolis".
    bpoz - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#234711) #
    Love it Mathew E Love it!!!

    I have to admit that I am getting way too anxious to talk about the upcoming draft. Hopefully a thread will open within a week or so.
    China fan - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#234719) #

    The article by Murray Chass was written in 2009, but it has some fascinating quotes about the pitfalls of relying too much on statistics.  I wonder if Bauxites would agree with his contention that Ricciardi relied too much on statistics and that Anthopoulos is trying to move away from an over-reliance on statistics?  Here is what Chass wrote in his 2009 article, followed by some illuminating quotes that he gathered from Anthopoulos and from an unnamed Blue Jay executive who apparently didn't like Ricciardi's reliance on stats:

    I see nothing wrong with using statistical data to supplement information about players, but some teams have made their computers their leading authority on players. Two years ago, only a year after they won the World Series, the St. Louis Cardinals fired their general manager, Walt Jocketty, because he was reluctant to adopt the statistical approach the team’s owners preferred. Last month the San Diego Padres fired their long-time general manager, Kevin Towers, despite four division titles and one National League pennant, their managing owner saying he wanted to take a more “strategic approach,” a euphemism for statistics.

    The Blue Jays, on the other hand, saw the reliance on statistics and saw that it didn’t work. “That was the trouble with J.P.,” a member of the Toronto organization said.

     “I started out without knowing anything about evaluating,” Anthopoulos said. “I thought I could evaluate just by looking at numbers on a page.....”

    Mike Green - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#234726) #
    That quote illustrates a fundamental misconception.  Ricciardi was not, in fact, highly attuned to statistical measures.  He was a scout, who had learned a few things about statistical measures from being in Beane's organization.  In the fine 2003 draft, he did a lot of the scouting himself personally.  When he drafted Ricky Romero rather than Troy Tulowitzki or Cameron Maybin in 2005, it was not because Romero's collegiate numbers were over-the-moon great or because college pitchers make better early first round drafts than college infielders or high-school OFers in general.  Rather it was because he had personally seen Romero pitch and met him and was impressed with both his stuff and his character. 

    I suspect the major difference between Ricciardi and Anthopoulos is not attitudes toward numbers but attitudes toward scouting opinions of others. Ricciardi, I believe, trusted his own eyes and those of his most senior advisors over the opinions of everyday scouts to a greater degree than Anthopoulos does.  Anthopoulos, I believe, prefers to have others do most of the looking while he does more of the filtering. That approach will, in my view, likely lead to somewhat better results over the long-term, not that Ricciardi's results were poor.

    Matthew E - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#234727) #
    I would be surprised if that article reflected the reality of Toronto's front office. I don't think Ricciardi was, himself, particularly sophisticated in his use of statistics, and I'm not sure you could point to too many personnel decisions he made that looked good on paper and didn't work on the field. As for Anthopoulos, if he says that he used to rely only on numbers on a page and now knows better, well, I guess I can buy that, but I bet it wasn't a recent realization.

    Then again, what do I know.

    Alex Obal - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#234731) #
    I linked the article as a joke - just figured the condescending tone and loud headline would cover nicely for my persnickety whining. I'm not exactly moved by it - I doubt the meagre quote about Ricciardi is placed in anything resembling its actual context, and anyway what self-respecting stathead signs Royce Clayton to put his fringe contender over the top? Ricciardi was a scout first and foremost. For me the big difference between Ricciardi and Anthopoulos is that AA wants big marginal wins and intends to gamble on high-ceiling guys often to get them, where Ricciardi might have been the most risk-averse GM in the league; unfortunate, since he was the Zen master of the waiver wire and would probably have been very good at covering for deals gone awry. AA may also be more active in talking to other GMs; hard to say for sure from here, but if he is, that's a plus.
    hypobole - Friday, May 13 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#234732) #
    We should do a spreadsheet with all of JP's and AA's moves, decisions, and transactions. Then we can quantify each one and average them to see which is the better approach.
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