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Not yet, advised Steven Goldman in yesterday's installment of the Pinstriped Bible on YESnetwork.com: "For the 2003 Yankees, the moment to embrace the 'Don’t Panic' mantra is now."

Of course, when he wrote that, Steve didn't know how serious Bernie Williams' knee injury is, or that Jorge Posada would get hit by two pitches last night (one on his unprotected ankle bone) or that Andy Pettitte would continue to get clobbered. The Bombers, 3-7 duds in their last 10 games, have escalating problems in the bullpen, at DH, on the bench and in the outfield. If the Blue Jays get to Mussina this evening, panic might be the appropriate response.


Goldman makes a scary comparison of Matsui's North American production to countryman Tsuyoshi Shinjo's modest career numbers. Last night, I noticed how Hideki's facial expressions and body language, so regal earlier in the spring, are beginning to show the pressure of high expectations, which will be even worse without Williams and Nick Johnson in the lineup. Instead of dropping "Godzilla" in the order, Joe Torre had little choice but to move him up to the 2-hole. With Juan Rivera expected to take over as the regular left fielder, playing out of position with greater responsibilities in center is unlikely to help Matsui regain his confidence at the plate.

Things could get worse -- the New York media will soon be in vulture mode, and fans in the Bronx are already beginning to express their impatience. Nobody expects George Steinbrenner to accept misfortune without throwing a tantrum or two, and when the Boss pushes the panic button, everybody jumps. Brian Cashman might be forced to look for a quick fix, allowing astute rival GMs to take advantage of the situation. Again.

Kelvim Escobar knows he's auditioning tonight, and he's goofy enough to covet the Big Apple spotlight. If he impresses the right observers with those four awesome pitches, it might give J.P. enough leverage to get Brandon Claussen, Andy Beal or another prospect, for someone whose time in Toronto has run out. We can hope, can't we?

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#101949) #
I was looking for pitching prospects for the Jays to get from the Yanks if an Escobar deal went through. Like Coach notes Claussen and Beal are the top 2 to look at. Claussen is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but has pitched well in 4 games in A ball so far. Beal is in AA, and the rest of the prospects worth acquiring are all in A Ball.

Below are my rankings of Yankee pitching prospects (I don't have the ages handy, that could obviously effect their postion).

Player..............ERA/.K9./BB9/HR9
Claussen........ - 1.64/10.6/1.2/0.0
Beal.............. - 3.46/8.5/2.3/0.0
Ryan Bicondoa.. - 2.52/8.9/1.6/0.3
Anderson Garcia - 2.38/9.5/4.2/0.0
Charlie Isaacson - 2.16/9.2/3.1/0.4
Brad Helsey..... - 2.72/7.1/1.9/0.2
Sean Henn...... - 3.94/5.1/4.5/0.6
Ray Clark....... - 2.67/7.3/2.0/0.3
Dave Martinez.. - 2.77/9.0/4.2/1.4

Henn is also coming off of Tommy John surgery, but had impressive numbers prior to the injury, and might be worth taking a shot at if he's a throw in.

(If anyone can edit this for better formatting feel free)
_Jordan - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#101950) #
Pistol, very good list. Who knew Dave Martinez had started his career over again as a pitcher? :-) Claussen definitely is the most attractive pitcher on this list; the downside, as you point out, in addition to the TJ, is his age: he turned 24 on May 1, and even for a career delayed by surgery, that's kind of old to be pitching in the Florida State League (Dustin McGowan and Vince Perkins, by contrast, are 21).

All else being equal, I think that if JP can acquire a pitching prospect, he'd much prefer to get one at AA or higher: the injury risk is somewhat lessened, the track record is longer, and the success against solid competition has been established. Jason Arnold was attractive, I think, for just those reasons. So in addition to Claussen's age, his A-Ball status may play a role in how favourably the Jays would look on him.

But in reality, I don't think this will be an issue anyway: Ricciardi would be thrilled, I'm sure, to get any prospect of consequence for Escobar at this point, but I can't see the Yanks dealing away their best pitching prospect for a setup guy or fourth starter. Then again, if George gets involved....
Pistol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#101951) #
The problem is that the Yanks don't have much above A ball. Jorge Depaula is the only one worth considering at AAA and he gives up too many HRs and walks a few too many. (4.44/8.1/3.1/1.7)

I think a good trade for the Jays would be Claussen and another pitcher off that list.
_Spicol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#101952) #
I dunno guys...if I'm JP and the return on Escobar is likely to be marginal, which it is, I'm more likely to take the risk on the raw, young, A-ball pitcher who still has a degree of prospect status (Claussen is too much to ask for) instead of accepting a AA or AAA roster filler type, who has already established that his career will consist of a couple of cups of coffee at best. Moving Escobar would be classic addition by subtraction, at least financially, so why not go for the high risk, high reward transaction?
_Spicol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#101953) #
I think a good trade for the Jays would be Claussen and another pitcher off that list.

For Escobar alone? Methinks you overvalue Kelvim.
Pistol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#101954) #
Perhaps I'm overvaluing Escobar, but given Claussen's age and past injury history I don't look at him as great value. I also don't see the Yanks placing a lot of value on an A ball pitcher that's 2-4 years away from the majors, especially if they make a panic trade.

BTW - Pete Walker has been called up with Brian Bowles going down.
Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#101955) #
Hmmm. Kelvim Escobar - a pitcher suffering a crisis of confidence - in New York. I can't see how this would be good for either the Yanks or Escobar.

Are there are any teams desperate to unload salary that would be willing to donate a player or two to the Yankees, as the Jays donated Mondesi last year? The Marlins probably are, but they don't have anybody particularly useful. Would the Rockies want to trade somebody like Preston Wilson?

Objective analysis: the Yankees probably shouldn't panic yet. They're still in first place, and they're playing .617 ball. No team is as bad as they look when they're slumping; the Yankees still have all those starting pitchers.

Non-objective, Jay-centric analysis: hee hee.
_Mick - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#101956) #
To Goldman (and by association, I guess, to Coach): Hogwash.

Goldman is part of the media panic. And he is renowned not only for positively Gammonsian trade predictions, but JaysonStarkian accuracy in his reporting.

Take that any way you like.

Claussen is not going anywhere. The reason the complex 22-team trade for Weaver went down is because the Tigers wanted Nick Johnson and Claussen. And the Yankees offered instead just one ... Johnson.

Escobar in pinstripes screams out "Eddie Whitson" to me, or for you youngsters checking in from Coach's ballclub, "Kenny Rogers." My gut -- and that's considerable, let me tell you -- sees Escobar in Red this year. Cincinnati Legs, not Boston Sox.

Rivera is the best defensive outfielder on the team, so LF should be no problem for him, though I just can't believe the Yankees won't run him out there in CF. But Boz Steinbrenner has soured on the kid and NYYCF is an icon job -- Joe, Mickey, Bobby and Bernie -- so this may be more political. With Stewart likely on his way to OAK or somewheres, how about Rivera for Escobar?

Won't happen, of course.
_R Billie - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#101957) #
If it's not Claussen+ I don't see a fit with the Yanks. Rivera is not much use with the outfield depth the Jays have between AA and the majors.

I don't think it's like last year where the Jays are desperate to dump of Kelvim's contract at the first opportunity. They're already under budget for the entire year without making any trades.

We do have to take the FSL stats for Claussen with a grain of salt. While we can't hold his age against him in this rehab stint (he has AA/AAA experience) we can't put much of a premium on his numbers either. His control wasn't this grand in AAA.

To me the Jays have no reason to help out the Yanks and vice versa. If the trade makes sense for both sides it will happen. The best course of action for the Jays is to let Kelvim start for two months, put up the decent to slightly below average numbers he's capable of, and see who's looking for an arm in July. If you don't get something of value, hang on to him. You might be able to resign him cheap next year.

The way some are talking you'd think Kelvim was washed up with no hope of ever doing anything again. He had 8 bad relief innings in April and thus far in May has been inefficient but not terrible. If inefficiency were an incurable disease then Bartolo Colon and Carlos Zambrano would not be starting today.
Coach - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#101958) #
Dave, that's one of the better descriptions yet of Batter's Box: Non-objective, Jay-centric analysis.

Jordan, Claussen's in Tampa at 24 on what amounts to a rehab assignment. He mastered AA as a 22-year-old in 2001, fanning 151 in 131 IP, with a 9-2 record and 2.13 ERA. With a 26/3 K/BB ratio in his first 22 innings, he's probably ready for Columbus. Or Syracuse.

Mick, among the reasons the Jays don't need Rivera are Werth, Gross, Griffin and Rios. But we know Ricciardi and Cashman like those three-way (or 22-way) deals. If some team looking to dump salary gets involved, anything's possible. As long as it involves Escobar's departure, it will be a good deal in my book.

Pete Walker has been called up with Brian Bowles going down.

Carlos Tosca, man of a thousand pitching changes, is finally making noises about having just 11 arms (and an extra bench player) available for the upcoming interleague games. When we chatted at the preseason open practice, he laughed at my suggestion that he's a National League manager at heart -- I wasn't kidding. The pitcher on the bubble looks like Jeff Tam (if they can't dump Kelvim and want to keep Sturtze in the bullpen) but they could also put Tanyon back in the rotation and let Davis replace that other Doug.
_Spicol - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#101959) #
The way some are talking you'd think Kelvim was washed up with no hope of ever doing anything again.

I'm guessing that you'd include me as part of the "some". Kelvim still has great talent and potential to someday, turn things around. But you have to consider what his perceived value is right now around the majors. He's a $4M swing man who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Why would anyone, especially the usually astute Brian Cashman, be interested in trading a real prospect for that type of player?

If you don't get something of value, hang on to him. You might be able to resign him cheap next year.

I don't know that they can sign him for cheap. In order to be able to sign him prior to May 1st/04, don't the Jays essentially have to offer him arbitration at the end of the year? And if the Jays offer him arbitration, won't Escobar likely accept it? And if Escobar accepts it, won't he be protected by the Maximum Salary Reduction clause in the Collective Agreement, meaning that he can't be signed for any less than 20% less than his previous year's contract, or in other words, a little over $3M? Escobar may have an outstanding time in the rotation this season. I hope he does and wish him all the best. But barring that, there's no way he's worth $3M on the 2004 Blue Jays and no way he's worth much more to another team this year than a Brandon Weeden or Ryan Bicondoa type player.
_Jacko - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#101960) #
Kelvim since the start of May:

10 IP, 3 H, 7 BB _13_ K, 0.90 ERA

He's been quietly solid pitching in the obscurity of middle relief.

Let's hope he can keep this up as the #5 starter...

jc
_R Billie - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#101961) #
He gave up 1 run through 5 innings against the Yankees today, threw just over 70 pitches.

He K'ed 4 and walked 4 yes, but those are things within his control to improve. If he had been starting since spring training of 2002 like he should have been, he might have improved his overall command and feel by now.

Even if he doesn't improve his command significantly, if he keeps pitching like this, he's EASILY worth $3 million next year to the Jays. I'm not sure what everyone else is talking about but I see a 27 year old pitcher with absolutely electric stuff which the Jays have mishandled.
_benum - Friday, May 23 2003 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#101962) #
I've been a Kelvim basher here, I admit it.

The problem as I see it is:

For him to be good enough (command/harness his stuff) for the Jays to want to keep him in their long term plans would mean that he'll be too expensive as a Free Agent at the end of the year.
I.E. Escobar finds his command and the Jays don't trade him. He ends the year going 10-2 as a starter with something like 100IP, 130K's, 60 BB's and an ERA of 3.50. Does he accept arbitration from the Jays? Probably not. Would the Jays be able to pay market value for a guy who has finally harnessed one of the best arms in the game? (with a low number of innings on said arm). No. Even if he had a blistering second half as a starter, could he regress the next year? Certainly.

If he doesn't 'break through' and he's mediocre (i.e. lots of walks), they would have to pay him at least $3Mill next year (as per Spicol above). Would the Jays do that? Not for mediocrity.

I was impressed with his stuff tonight against the Yanks but I still say trade him.
_R Billie - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#101963) #
I think if Escobar puts up those numbers, Ricciardi will either find a way to trade him for something good or resign him for next year. Why not just give him part of the money you paid Stewart this year?

If he regresses to mediocore, you can still trade him. Unless he goes Esteban Loaiza (unlikely IMO) you can always find a trading partner for an average starting pitcher.
Dave Till - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#101964) #
At this point, I think that Escobar needs a change of scenery. This is his seventh year with the Blue Jays; if he was going to achieve his considerable potential, he would have done it by now.

Once the Jays become real contenders (which may happen sooner than we think), they won't be able to afford Kelvim's horrible slumps. Given the Jays' offense, they don't need a pitcher whose performance oscillates wildly from the very best in the league to the very worst in the league: they need pitchers who can keep the team in the game, and give the bats a chance. Escobar is never going to be one of those pitchers.

I think there are several teams that would be happy to take a chance on Escobar's live arm, and some of them might be willing to offer a minor-league pitcher or two. I am willing to live with the risk of seeing Escobar explode on the league after he is traded.

My theory on Loaiza: from what I've heard, he is a player with considerable talent but indifferent work habits and attitudes. The Chicago White Sox, from what I've heard, are an entire team of players with considerable talent but indifferent work habits and attitudes. Loaiza is pitching well because he's finally found a place where he fits in.
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